Full transcript
0:03All right, welcome in. It is Saturday.
0:05It is time for Total Bases kicking off
0:08the day. I know there's probably a bunch
0:10of people in here waiting for the
0:11football games to start, but we still
0:14got baseball. It's a full slate and um
0:16you know, stay tuned after this show. Uh
0:19I believe this a college football show
0:21and then last call and then a great day
0:23of of sports all around. So happy to be
0:26here with the two guys to kick you off
0:28for the day. 0 and one for me last
0:31night. I think I I talked about on the
0:32show Tokyo I had like nine leans. I
0:36ended up betting one of them um went 0
0:39and one. But had I bet all nine, I would
0:40have went like four and five. So again,
0:42it's like you know it you'd rather go 0
0:46and one than four and five. Uh if you
0:47know anything about how this works is
0:49unless they're all underdogs. Uh so you
0:51know I was wrong about the Blue Jays,
0:53but I'll own that. It was a bad call.
0:55Dylan CE had nothing. Biggest game of
0:57the year for the Blue Jays. They made
0:59three errors and their Sion candidate
1:00had nothing. So bad call for me. Tokyo
1:03Brandon, I hope your Friday went better
1:05than mine. Uh yeah, MLB I broke even one
1:10and one, I think. Yeah, either way it
1:13was an even record. And then this
1:15morning in Asian baseball, I had three
1:164% plays and won them all. So I was
1:19pretty happy about that. I lost to 2%.
1:22So, I did a lot of Asian baseball this
1:24morning, so I'm kind of in a good mood.
1:26And I have a 5% play today in MLB, so
1:28I'm ready to go.
1:31>> All right, check out Tokyo Brandon's 5%
1:33play. Brian, how was your Friday?
1:35>> Well, I thought I was going to sweep. I
1:37had three 2% plays. They were all
1:40winning and they all lost. One of those
1:42days that happened, the both fell apart.
1:46>> Um, and then my football play, I had uh
1:49I had the underdog that was never in
1:50doubt. uh six straight college football
1:53winners as it continues to perform well.
1:56Swept the board last Saturday. I've got
1:57four plays up today with possibly more
2:00and if I do any baseball that will be up
2:02a little bit later.
2:04>> Yeah. While we're on the topic, um I
2:06have only made two college football bets
2:08this year. Both have won easily. My
2:11third one will go today and we put it up
2:13at Sports Memo for seven bucks. So, uh,
2:17it's it's it's one of my client plays at
2:19Wager Talk, but the, you know, if if
2:22you're my client, you already have it.
2:23It's been out since yesterday, but if
2:25you are looking for that play, it's a
2:27noon kickoff and it's on on the sports
2:29memo site for $7. So, a pretty big
2:32discount on what it would be if it was
2:33on the wager if it was up on the wager
2:35talk site. So, uh, check that out. Also,
2:37for my 5% play in NFL tomorrow, coupon
2:40code adam10 takes $10 off, um, that
2:44play. I I don't know what else you can
2:46use it on. Maybe you could try to use it
2:47on something else, but it works on that
2:50specific place. So, uh we'll get that
2:52out of the way.
2:53>> I will say uh you're not old enough to
2:55know, but there used to be a television
2:57show called Adam 10, right?
2:59>> Was a police bomb or something.
3:01>> Adam 12. Adam 12. Never mind.
3:03>> Oh, I was going to say I've heard I've
3:05heard every Adam and Trigger related
3:09>> uh reference and and joke from like 50
3:11years before I was born. That's the only
3:13one I haven't heard. the I I when you
3:15said Adam Ant the other day, I was all
3:17over that. That was said to me so
3:19because my middle initial my middle name
3:20is Nicholas, so my initials are a n. I
3:23got Adam Ant all day when I was a when I
3:26was a kid. Um could be worse.
3:29>> Trigger. I I have them all, but Adam 12
3:32I never heard of before.
3:33>> It's pretty cool. So it could be worse.
3:35Yeah.
3:37>> At any rate, um we've got the chat
3:39populated. It's time for It's time to
3:41get into these baseball games for today.
3:43Brian, I'll come to you first. Uh, this
3:45one's on national TV at 4 PM on MLB
3:47Network. It does look like the entire
3:49country is getting this game. It's going
3:51to be the Brewers and the Orioles. Uh,
3:53one of the play I guess the one I wish I
3:56fired yesterday was Orioles plus one and
3:58a half. I talked about it on the show.
4:00It it I guess it was the right side, but
4:03then it needed it needed a little bit of
4:06luck to get there in the ninth inning.
4:07It was a pretty good game. Tight game
4:09throughout. The Brewers got the big hit
4:12in uh the top of the ninth, ended up
4:15taking a 5-3 lead, blew the game, it was
4:1855, and then the Brewers ended up going
4:21on to win 65 in extra innings. Uh now
4:25they come out, it's Trevor Rogers for
4:26the home team. Looks like we've got
4:28Robert Gasser maybe for the Brewers. So
4:30kick us off Brewers Orioles. Anything
4:32for you here? Yeah, if you watched one
4:34game yesterday and this was the one you
4:36you cashed because I think I had uh
4:38Milwaukee was the side I liked and you
4:41liked uh the other team plus one and a
4:42half. We should have just uh cancelled
4:45the rest of the show after that. A
4:47couple of lefties, Gastra and Rogers
4:49going today. Let's take a look at how
4:51these teams do against lefties. Uh
4:53Milwaukee on the season 98 uh which is
4:5714 WRC plus lower but they are hitting
5:00very well the last month 131. Um and uh
5:06we're also looking at uh Baltimore and
5:09Baltimore on the season is at 101.
5:13They're 102 on ready. So it's not much
5:15of a difference but as you pointed out
5:16um they're big power hitter right now
5:18loving lefties. Um, but we're looking at
5:22Gastra about a 130 favorite here with a
5:24total of seven and a half to the over.
5:27Um,
5:29I like taking Rogers as an underdog. And
5:32when you compare the two pitchers, I
5:34believe the better team or the home team
5:36has the uh the uh better pitcher in this
5:40one. Um, so I'm somewhat leaning with
5:43Rogers, but you got to have a pretty
5:46good reason to bet against Milwaukee.
5:48And at six o'clock in the morning out
5:49here in Vegas, I can't come up one. So,
5:51and I leave Baltimore. That's about it
5:53for me.
5:55>> Yeah, I leave Baltimore, too. I'm I'm
5:57with you on on all accounts, Brian. I
5:59think that I I prefer Rogers over
6:01Gastra. Tokyo Brandon. I've talked about
6:03this a few times. This Orioles lineup
6:05sets up nicely against left-handed
6:07pitching. Um they they've been really
6:10good against lefties for a while now,
6:12probably for the last couple months
6:14after sort of like uncharacteristically
6:17slumping against left-handed pitching
6:18earlier this year. And I say
6:20uncharacteristic because of the makeup
6:22of the lineup. This lineup should hit
6:25lefties. For the last few months, they
6:27have. The other thing I noticed here,
6:29the Brewers have used a lot of the
6:31bullpen the last couple days that they
6:33would prefer to have at the end of the
6:35game. So clear, you know, Milwaukeee's
6:37got a better bullpen, but maybe a little
6:39bit of an equalizer here. I'm with
6:40Brian. I like the Orioles. Are we uh are
6:43we making this a consensus or are you
6:44going to push back here?
6:47>> So the crazy thing about Milwaukee I you
6:50know I mean the the number one home run
6:53hitter on their team has 26 home runs.
6:55That's crazy. That's insane. Um I don't
7:00think any other team has a home run
7:01leader that low, but I could be wrong.
7:04But anyways, most people probably can't
7:05even name the guy. So, this is this
7:07lineup is is number one in MLB right
7:10now. This crazy. Um, they are still
7:14playing for something, but the Orioles
7:16basically have to win out to to make a
7:18wild card. I think they have three team
7:20three teams they have to jump. Um, so I
7:23mean their their their uh playoff hopes
7:26are on uh life support right now. Uh if
7:29they're going to win a game in this
7:31series, it's going to be this one
7:32because tomorrow they got Miserowski. So
7:36uh I kind of like the Orioles, too. Uh
7:39especially if you can get him for plus
7:41one and a half. I don't see any reason
7:42why Gasser should be a favorite in any
7:45universe. Uh compared to Trevor Rogers,
7:48he's not even near as good of a pitcher.
7:50So uh yeah, I mean the Orioles have
7:54slightly better bullpen as well. So
7:57they've got a shot. Let's just put it
7:59that way. I don't know if I'm gonna put
8:00money on it, though.
8:02>> Yeah, I would have loved the uh scenario
8:04yesterday where the run and a half was
8:06like affordable like it was yesterday.
8:08I'm not surprised that it's not. Gasser
8:10is is a downgrade um from the pitching
8:13setup for yet that the Brewers had
8:14yesterday and Rogers is an upgrade. So,
8:16I feel like that line adjustment is
8:18appropriate and I do think pretty much
8:20any plus money here with the Orioles is
8:22probably some value. I'm with you, TB. I
8:24don't know if I'll get there uh with
8:26this one, but if you're looking for a
8:28value underdog, Orioles is probably as
8:31good as it's going to get today in my
8:32opinion for just like uh plus money
8:36value on this on this card.
8:38>> Just to just touch on uh TV's thought
8:41about home runs, there's one team in
8:43Major League Baseball that their leader
8:45has 15 home runs, and that's the
8:48Cleveland Guardian.
8:49>> Guardians. Yeah.
8:50>> And it's not the people you would think.
8:53Uh, Bazan's got 15. Martinez 15,
8:56>> the Lauder 14, Hoskins
8:59>> 13.
9:01>> Yeah. No. Uh,
9:04>> bigger bigger name. Close.
9:06>> I stand corrected. Well, I didn't check
9:08the numbers before I said that. But in
9:10any case, 26 home runs for your home run
9:12is extremely low. That's crazy. And
9:14they're the highest hitting team. So,
9:16that's just crazy.
9:19All right, let's uh let's get back here
9:21into the chat. Um
9:25let's see. I'll I'll go with Well, I I'm
9:28going to go with the
9:31I'll go with the standalone game here. I
9:34don't know if this got this isn't a we
9:35don't know if this got moved up or
9:37whatever, but it's uh there is a
9:38standalone game today in Major League
9:40Baseball. It is quite important um to
9:44well definitely to one of the two teams
9:47playing. Uh that's going to be out in
9:49Chicago this afternoon. I believe it's
9:51the only game in the very first window
9:54of games. So I'll go to Brian here.
9:56Yeah, 2:10 p.m. Eastern. Uh every other
9:59game on the slate today is 400 pm
10:01Eastern or later. Uh so let's go to
10:03standalone baseball south side of
10:05Chicago. We've got White Socks, Tigers.
10:08Uh White Socks, man. second time this
10:11week that they've really kind of blown
10:13one. They blew a big lead yesterday and
10:15u Brian there,
10:18it's kind of what I thought they might
10:20do when they started playing really like
10:21big-time meaningful games in September,
10:25peeing down their leg a little bit. Uh
10:27the the one earlier in the week against
10:30the Guardians where they botched the
10:31final play of the game, turn a win into
10:33a loss yesterday, blow a big lead at
10:35home to the Tigers. So, uh, the White
10:39Socks, are they feeling the heat a
10:41little bit right now? And do you think
10:43that creeps into how this game plays out
10:45today?
10:45>> Yeah, you mentioned the Southside of
10:47Chicago. That's, uh, Jim Croachi, bad
10:51bad Leroy Brown. Uh, it's been it's been
10:55bad by Chicago White Socks lately. I'll
10:57tell you, I that that was my final straw
10:59of my three teams yesterday as I had the
11:01White Socks. I think they were leading 8
11:02to2. And my wife says, "Here come the
11:05Tigers. Here comes the Tigers." She
11:07she's a Cleveland fan. She wanted
11:08Detroit to beat the White Socks. I
11:10wanted the White Socks to win because
11:11that was a play for my myself and my
11:13clients. But we got Job and Burke. Uh
11:16we're looking at about a 140 favorite
11:18for the White Socks and a total of about
11:21eight to the under, seven and a half to
11:22the over. Seven and a half more juiced.
11:25Uh so closer to eight here.
11:28Yeah. Every time you think Tigers are
11:30down, they keep uh playing well. Your
11:32heads hats off to them. They could have
11:34done this uh last year. they'd have been
11:36in the playoffs. They'd have done this
11:37earlier this year. They'd have been in
11:39the playoffs, but nope, they're still
11:41behind and but hats off their way.
11:43They've been playing been playing very
11:45well. Uh we've got Jackson Job on the
11:47mound because of injuries. He's always a
11:50guy who never seems to live up to his
11:52potential. Um on the road, 3.10 RA, but
11:56his is his innings pitched are too too
11:58low. Small sample size, so I wouldn't
12:00care too much about that. 49 average
12:02game score. That's about league average
12:04of 50. His last two times hot though was
12:0568 hosting Colorado at home. Of course
12:08that's everybody love to do that and
12:10then at Cleveland Clay on a 52 so he's
12:12pitching pretty well. Um
12:15and uh we go to Chicago White Socks and
12:18the White Socks yesterday and we talked
12:20about this uh a couple days ago was uh
12:24they've used the bullpen a lot and they
12:27have not updated it as of yet on the uh
12:30Fangrass website, but I know they had a
12:33lot of bullpen usage again yesterday.
12:34That is a major concern here. Sean Burke
12:38uh from take a look at his splits. Um he
12:41is uh better on the road and if you take
12:44a look at his advanced numbers they're
12:46they're pretty close. I don't think
12:47there's any differential. Just had a
12:49little bit bad luck at home. Uh game
12:51logs uh 53 but uh two time two starts to
12:56go. He got bombed when he played
12:58Pittsburgh. He had an eightgame score
13:00last time out against Cleveland. Pitched
13:02very well. Uh four hitter through five
13:05innings. Uh struck out four, walked two.
13:08So, six batters and five innings a
13:10little bit higher that you wanted for
13:11the whip, but uh no, he pitched very
13:13well. So, I think he's back a little
13:15bit. I had a little bit worries about
13:17him before, but yes, I think the White
13:20Socks, this is, you know, nothing's a
13:23must-win game. they still got, you know,
13:25eight games left to go in the season,
13:27but you would think if they lose this
13:28game today with Cleveland at home
13:30against the Athletics. Uh they're really
13:32putting themselves in quite the hole,
13:34especially if Texas wins again over
13:36Toronto, uh they might not make the
13:38playoffs. So, uh a lot of pressure on
13:41Chicago and that's not doing that's not
13:44showing well so far, uh when they've had
13:46this pressure on them. So, slight lean
13:48with Detroit with Job and I think the
13:49line is a little bit inflated because of
13:51that.
13:53So, the Tigers, they did make the
13:54playoffs last year. Uh, they actually
13:56ended up eliminating the Guardians even
13:58though they choked the division away.
14:00Um, they eliminated the Guardians.
14:02Actually went to game five with the
14:03Mariners. So, the Tigers were there last
14:05year. The reason I I point that out is
14:07with the Guardians taking over the
14:10division lead in the Central. I mean,
14:12this is, you know, the Tigers probably
14:15out at this point, five back with like
14:18nine or 10 to go. But at least for the
14:20Tigers, they are up against the team
14:23they are now chasing. They're really not
14:24chasing the Guardians anymore because
14:26the Guardians have the lead in that
14:27division. So
14:29maybe a bigger game for, you know,
14:32knowing that if they win this game, they
14:34make up a game in that wild card, they
14:35would get to four back. Um, you know,
14:38the White Socks, man, going back to the
14:40beginning, you know, Tokyo Brandon, I'll
14:42go to you. Going back to earlier in the
14:43week, uh, Brian pointed out that Hagen
14:46Smith was pitching through a little bit
14:47of discomfort. He ended up pitching um
14:49but didn't you first time at the big
14:52league level where he really didn't look
14:53sharp. Uh they do go to Grant Taylor
14:56earlier this week to lock down the win
14:58in the finale of or I'm sorry the win in
15:02the opener of this series on Thursday
15:04night. Um which was one they absolutely
15:07needed. But you know after last night
15:09this White Sox bullpen's looking a
15:11little bit tired. I I don't like the
15:13vibes at all with this White Sox team.
15:15I'm not saying that the the Tigers are
15:17the team that catches them, but the
15:18Tigers I think they think they still
15:20have something to play for. There's a
15:21lot of young talent on this team that's
15:24wants to hang around for next year. And
15:26uh yeah, I Brian Brian's not wrong. The
15:29White Socks could very well miss the
15:31playoffs. I don't like how they're
15:32playing at all right now. Lean Tigers
15:34for me. How do you see Tigers White
15:36socks?
15:37>> Uh speaking of Chicago songs, how about
15:39the night Chicago died by paperlaced?
15:42Does anyone remember that? Anyways, I'm
15:44aging myself
15:45>> as a kid. Yeah.
15:46>> Yeah. I was at the Disco Sucks riot at
15:49Kamiski Park in 1979. But anyways, Adam
15:53wasn't even born. So, let's move on. Uh,
15:56I think the Tigers are actually the
15:59better team in my opinion, although the
16:01record doesn't show. Um, I don't like
16:04Shawn Burke. I don't like what I'm
16:06seeing from I don't like Job either, but
16:08the Tigers have currently the better
16:11bullpen and the better hitting form. So,
16:15if I'm going to bet this game, I
16:17probably would take the Tigers team
16:19total over. Um, if you can get a three
16:22and a half, that would be great, but you
16:23probably won't. It'll probably be four
16:25and a half. But, I still like it because
16:26I don't like Burke and I don't like the
16:28the Chicago White Sox bullpen as as both
16:30of you referred to. They're a little
16:32worn out right now and they're not good
16:34to begin with in my opinion. So, uh, I
16:38think Detroit's team total, I think
16:40they're going to score quite a few runs
16:41today.
16:43Yeah. I mean, listen, the white the
16:45White Sox have a very good bullpen.
16:48Like, if we're talking about like at
16:50full strength, this bullpen is is solid.
16:53But when you consider the Taylor usage,
16:56I mean, he's a stud. No question about
16:58it. Grant Taylor's a stud, but like if
17:00you got Hagen Smith a little bit
17:01compromised and then I'll go to the the
17:03chat, the point that's being made in the
17:05chat here. Um, you know, if you look at
17:09like they're getting in one of those
17:11runs where they've played like eight
17:12straight days, they played a lot of
17:14close games and I just think Yeah, I
17:17just think like the the the close games
17:20and needing, you know, two nights ago,
17:22they need to go to Grant Taylor for
17:23seven outs. Um, that's, you know, that's
17:26a lot to ask from a guy that's like,
17:28you're you're putting in like close or
17:30high leverage situations. Hey, we need
17:31you to to get seven outs in a three to
17:34one game. Now, he's going to be
17:36available. Yes, probably today. Well,
17:38he's definitely going to be available,
17:39but he's only one day removed from
17:41having to pitch two and a third.
17:43Yesterday, they did use Hagen Smith. He
17:45looked fine. Uh, but they use like six
17:47or seven relievers. So yeah, in in in
17:50this state, I I would say the Tigers
17:53probably have a little bit of a bullpen
17:55edge. And I actually think this is
17:57another one I thought, you know, I said
17:59Orioles were like maybe the best
18:00moneyline value. I I think you can make
18:03the case that the Tigers at plus 125 are
18:05even better value than the Orioles. Why
18:07Why are the White Socks a$140 favorite
18:10here with how they're playing right now?
18:11These two teams are not that different.
18:13Um yeah, I I am in big- time
18:15disagreement with the the price on the
18:17White Sox here. Brian, go ahead.
18:19>> Yeah, I looking over the pitching uh
18:22yesterday, you said they used six
18:23relievers, they all pitched at least 14
18:26uh 14 pitches. So, not only did they use
18:29them, they had to use them pretty
18:30heavily. I think I'm going to use the
18:32Tigers as my part of the parlay here. Um
18:35I did want to mention Cleveland does
18:37have that oneame lead in the in the
18:38division, but they trail they lost a
18:42season series to the White Socks, the
18:44Astros, and the Rangers. So Cleveland
18:48really is tied with the White Sox right
18:50now. Even though they got a one game
18:51lead, they need the best thing for for
18:55Cleveland would be the Detroit Tigers
18:57making a run here and sweeping the rest
18:58of the way. Not only would it make the
19:00Tigers not to have a losing record,
19:02which is something you can root you can
19:04root for. Nobody wants to have a losing
19:05record. They got to win eight straight
19:06to do it, but uh from Clemoth
19:09standpoint, they play better against the
19:11Tigers. And uh that would be one last
19:14game would have to win if the Tigers get
19:16into the play get into that because it's
19:18the only team that they have the
19:20advantage on when it comes to
19:21head-to-head.
19:24>> Yeah, I I'm I'm with you, Brian. Tigers,
19:26uh what are you seeing? Plus 125.
19:28>> Yeah, let me take a quick look once
19:29again here.
19:32Uh we're getting not quite that. Maybe
19:36maybe plus 120. There is some 125s out
19:38there, but let's just make it a 120 to
19:40make sure everybody can get that number.
19:42>> As always, shop around. But yeah, plus
19:44money on the Tigers there sounds pretty
19:46good to me. Um, real quick to the chat.
19:50Uh, I did notice this. I have absolutely
19:53no idea uh what to do about it. Uh,
19:56people smarter than me will figure that
19:57out. Um, yeah, on the replay, for
19:59whatever reason, our intro is getting
20:01cut off. It's like the first three
20:03minutes of the show gets cut. Uh, I I I
20:06just wanted to point out that I did
20:08notice that as well. I will let our
20:10video team know. Um, not sure I'm not
20:13sure why that's happening. Um, but I do
20:15want to acknowledge it. I've noticed it
20:16the past couple days. Vinnie G, he's in
20:19Vegas. He says, "Brian, I'll be at Circa
20:21tomorrow all day if you're around
20:24watching the NFL games at Circa. Wish I
20:26was with you, Vinnie. That sounds like a
20:28a great time.
20:30>> I go I go out with uh Marco D'Angelo and
20:33a bunch of other guys. If you'd like to
20:35join us, let me know and you I'll invite
20:38you, but we will be downtown in Vegas.
20:42>> All right. Maybe. Yeah, maybe. Uh maybe
20:44go
20:48>> I join you guys when I'm in when I'm out
20:49there in November.
20:52>> Confirmed. Confirmed. Good time. I
20:54forget. We We went out for Monday Night
20:56Football like four years ago when I was
20:58out there. Wherever we went was a good
21:00time. I forget where we went. I do know
21:02that I had the Commanders in that game
21:04as a very big underdog and they beat the
21:06Eagles outright. That's all I remember
21:07about that evening. And then I went to
21:09UNLV Dayton at the Thomas and Max
21:11Center. I can remember that. I can't
21:13remember where we went. I can remember I
21:15had the Commanders. I can remember I had
21:17UNLV as a five-point dog against nally
21:19ranked Dayton. Couldn't tell you where
21:21we were. So,
21:22>> we don't remember our wedding
21:24anniversary, but we remember that one
21:26bet that we lost in 1976.
21:29>> Yeah. the line, the final score. Yeah,
21:32that's how it works.
21:33>> This is how men are.
21:36>> That's how it works. All right, listen.
21:38Brian just gave his parlay leg out. I'm
21:39gonna give mine. It's also a client
21:41play. So, a free client play for the
21:43show. 3enter for me. I kind of had to
21:46just bet this out of principle. I I took
21:49the Mariners minus 149. Okay. Jose
21:54Canana is going to get the start for the
21:55Rockies. And I think that's why the line
21:57is not astronomically high like it
22:00should be. Um, but the thing is Jose
22:03Canana is only going to throw about 60
22:05pitches here. I he he's been coming back
22:08from rehab. Like there there's a strict
22:11pitch count for him today. 60 to 65
22:14pitches tops. There's no reason for them
22:17to stray from that. He's just sort of,
22:20you know, I mean, he's just getting back
22:22into the mix. He was he was going
22:23through rehab. to loss sort of rest of
22:25the season for him. Um, but there's no
22:28reason for them to risk injury. So, the
22:30reason I think this line is wrong and is
22:32off is because the bullpen arms that you
22:35will get from the Rockies the rest of
22:37the day today are bad. Um, it is it is
22:41not going to be their best bullpen arms
22:43that they could possibly throw out
22:45there. So, let's just do some Tokyo
22:48Brandon, I'll come to you. Let's just do
22:50some uh some, you know, math here.
22:5465 pitches from Canana, maybe like four
22:58innings or so. So, the Rockies are going
23:00to have to put on Excuse the Dogs.
23:02They're It's a beautiful fall day and
23:04they want to be outside right now, which
23:06they will be in a little bit, but not
23:08while I'm on the show. Um,
23:10>> you're probably looking at five innings
23:12from bad Rockies relievers here. Um, I
23:16listen, I know the Mariners, they
23:18they've been disappointing. I'd argue
23:20that they're probably not playing for
23:22anything at this point, but this is what
23:24I kind of had in mind when I talked
23:25about Mariners futures a couple weeks
23:27ago where it's like a lot of these games
23:30are going to be $2 favorite easy type
23:32game. Not there's no game that's an easy
23:34game, but like winnable games. when I
23:36saw minus 149. I mean, to me, if you
23:40know Canana is only going four innings
23:41here and then you're going to get five
23:43innings from the worst relievers on the
23:45Rockies, this has to be like minus 185
23:48Mariners, not minus 149. So, earlier I
23:51bet this for clients 3% play. Mariners
23:53minus 149. It will be my parlay late.
23:56Tokyo Brandon, we're um Did I see you on
23:58the Mariners last night?
24:00>> You did.
24:00>> I was kicking
24:01>> that was that was as easy as it gets. It
24:04didn't end up being as easy, but that I
24:06was kicking myself for not playing that.
24:08I was kicking myself for not playing
24:09that.
24:10>> It wasn't easy. Actually, I was on the
24:13Pirates as well. So, uh, and man, that
24:16got off to a bad start as well. Uh, the
24:18one thing about the Rockies is they're
24:20good hitting team that I mean, despite,
24:23you know, not, you know, the the average
24:27baseball fan probably can't even name
24:28one player on their team, but they
24:30actually hit pretty well. And uh the
24:33Mariners don't. So I mean they did last
24:37season and they don't this actually
24:39though I got the Mariners ranked number
24:41three in current form in hitting and I
24:42got the Rockies ranked nine. So we got
24:44two teams that actually can hit right
24:47now. Um and yes I was on the Mariners. I
24:50have 5% play up today. You guys you can
24:52get that with a double play. You can get
24:53me and either one of these gentlemen.
24:55Three days all access. That includes
24:57baseball only, but that includes all 5%
25:00plays as well. um at wagertalk.com. Go
25:04to our capper pages and scroll down a
25:06little. You'll see double play. Um and
25:10bullpen wise, exactly like you said,
25:12Adam, uh Seattle's I got them ranked 11
25:16where I got Colorado ranked 26. So yeah,
25:18if you're going to get six innings of
25:21that Colorado bullpin, either a Seattle
25:23team total over or a probably a Seattle
25:26win. The thing is, the Rockies are just
25:29so they can sneak up on you because they
25:31can hit well, but their bullpin is
25:33trash. Uh, I would prefer an over if
25:36it's not over 11. Uh, if you can get a
25:39Seattle team total around five and a
25:41half, that would be nice, too, in my
25:43opinion. Uh, those are any any ways you
25:45could probably bet this game in my
25:47opinion.
25:48>> Yeah, Brian, listen. I the the Rockies,
25:51they got guys that can hit. I actually
25:52think they pounded out about 14 hits
25:54last night and still lost that game.
25:58Mariners big time. Yeah, you're right.
26:00>> David, you're not wrong. Bryce Miller on
26:02the road, Bryce Miller in Altitude.
26:04Like, there's all things that that it by
26:06no means is it just like a layup for the
26:10Mariners. All I'm saying is I I saw this
26:13at a minus 149 and just out of
26:16principle, I had to make a three-unit
26:19play knowing that Quint Kintana's
26:22throwing he's he's throwing 60 pitches
26:23tops here. So, if you're going to give
26:25me the Mariners in a game that is pretty
26:28much they I mean again we throw around
26:30the term must win but like they have to
26:32win the game if they want to have any
26:33chance at being in the mix. You're going
26:35to give me the Mariners against the
26:37Rockies bullpen and it's like Agnos has
26:40already p like there's like three or
26:41four of their top like six relievers
26:43that are not going to pitch here. I if
26:45the Mariners can't win that game, what
26:48are we doing? And I I truly believe it
26:51should be minus 190. So, if I see a 30
26:53to 40 cent difference based on what my
26:55numbers are, I got to make a bet. Brian,
26:57Rocky's Mariners, you going to play
26:59devil's advocate here?
27:00>> I'm going to have to. I don't know how
27:02you you can have any trust right now in
27:04the Seattle Mariners. They're they've
27:06got like eight games to go. There's six
27:08games out of the wild card. They're
27:09done. Put a fork in them. Um, but I will
27:13agree on the total being a high-scoring
27:16game. Um Quintana you mentioned probably
27:19going to go three or four innings then
27:20they bring in the bullpen. The bullpen
27:22right now is lousy. Uh they're closers
27:24had to pitch the last two days and uh he
27:27shouldn't be a closer in Major League
27:28Baseball anyway. Uh I don't no part of
27:31this Colorado pitching staff here.
27:33Seattle can hit. um they have not hit as
27:37well as we have liked. But to get this,
27:39you can get it at 11 minus 120 to the
27:42over or 11 and a half at basically even
27:45money and the side is about in the 150
27:49range. So, uh if I'm playing here, I am
27:52playing the over. Take a look at Bryce
27:54Mueller. His last 11 starts, his best
27:57game scorer was 52.
28:00He has been a less than average major
28:02league pitcher. um for 11 straight
28:06starts. And because he's got really good
28:10stuff and because we know his name, you
28:12see him come up, you go, "Oh, that's uh
28:14Seattle's uh Miller. Yeah, I remember
28:16that guy did this or whatever." He has
28:18not been good. And so there's no way I
28:20can lay this number with Seattle. But I
28:23will find a way, at least try to find a
28:26way to play the over, whether it be a
28:28team total, whether it be full game, or
28:31uh maybe just in live betting. and hope
28:33uh these two go three innings and don't
28:35give up more than a run or two. Then you
28:37come in live and you're in great shape.
28:39But yeah, unfortunately I you're you're
28:42out on your own I think on this one.
28:44>> Fine with that. So usually the best that
28:46way. I prefer to be on my own when when
28:48all you guys start agreeing with me.
28:50It's it's that's you know I like I tend
28:52to like it a little less. So I like to
28:54rebel. We're all wearing black today.
28:56>> My uh listen my counter to I I see
28:59because I see a couple people in the
29:00chat. You can't trust Seattle. My
29:02counter to that is, oh, you trust the 56
29:04and 98 Rockies. You trust that team with
29:09I mean, you might see like Nick Fraso in
29:11the game. You You may see guys that
29:12should be an indie ball in the game out
29:14of this bullpen at some point.
29:15>> I mean, you're already seeing José
29:17Kintana.
29:18>> No, but you don't though. That's That's
29:20what I'm saying. You yesterday you saw
29:22you you saw some of the Rocky's better
29:24relievers yesterday. like it. They're
29:26going to need five innings from guys and
29:28there's going to be a couple guys that
29:29I've watched pitch at Albuquerque this
29:31year that should be on the Long Island
29:32Ducks. Okay? Like this is you saw
29:35Bernardino yesterday. Um Romano pitched
29:37yesterday. Jaden Hill, man. Freddy was a
29:40kid that they got from the Brewers that
29:41I like. Like those are the guys if I'm
29:43the Rockies, if I'm on the Rockies, I'm
29:46okay with those guys being in the game.
29:48It's the ones that I think you're going
29:49to see today that I want no part of. So,
29:51hey, I've been wrong before, but again,
29:54I just I I make this closer to minus
29:56180. If I see 30 cents of value, which I
29:58rarely see um 30 cents of value unless
30:01it's like over $2, uh I got to jump on
30:04that. So, um yeah, that's what I'm So,
30:06Mariners is going to be my leg of the
30:07parley. Brian, what I played this for
30:09clients 3% minus 149 this morning. What
30:12are we seeing for the Mariners right
30:14now? Yeah, I'm seeing as high as 165 out
30:17there at a rogue a rogue public book,
30:19but for the most part, you're looking at
30:21about a 150 range.
30:24>> I'll call it minus 155 for the And the
30:27final thing I'll say about this is Jay,
30:30I get what you're saying, but like I
30:33don't care if the Mariners have burned
30:34money all season. I'm only betting
30:36today. Like that that's the other thing
30:38I think is like gets worried about too
30:40much. What they've done all season is
30:42fine. It should be taken into into
30:44consideration. I'm only betting this
30:46game. I only care about today.
30:49So, what these teams have done, you
30:51know, win, lose money, lose money. I
30:53think that's overblown. It only thing
30:55that matters is this game. I'm only
30:57betting this game.
30:58>> You're only You're only betting the
30:59future, but you are using the past to
31:01guide your future. And uh so I can see
31:04both ways. Yeah.
31:05>> Yeah. So, I'm using the past watching
31:08some of these guys throw at Albuquerque
31:09throw batting practice. And when Laz
31:13Montes has won 500, I'm going to feel
31:15pretty good. That's all I'm saying.
31:16>> You've been so good at the Triple A. You
31:18got to listen to what Trigg has to say
31:20about this.
31:22>> All right, let's go back. Uh, let's get
31:24We're ready to go. See who who's
31:28still baseball season. I just tweeted
31:29that out a little bit. I know there's
31:31football today. Football be football's
31:33going to be there. Don't worry. Um, we
31:36are absolutely getting it going here to
31:39start the day on the basis. Let's go
31:41back to the chat.
31:43Someone says, I don't know what that was
31:44to me. Someone says, you can join cease
31:46on the bench. That's that's a good
31:47comment. He was a
31:49>> give the give the All right, here's my
31:50segue. Totally come to you. G, give the
31:53I don't even care. Cam Schler could give
31:55up nine runs tonight. Give him the Sai
31:57Young just because that was absolutely
31:59pathetic by CE last night. Couldn't even
32:02throw the ball over the plate. Biggest
32:03game of the year for the Jays and he's
32:05out in like the third inning.
32:08>> Sounds like you lost a bit.
32:10>> Yeah. Yeah. But he's he Dylan CE known
32:14head case
32:16>> came Yeah, that's what happened last
32:17night. Couldn't
32:19>> it happens all got blown all the
32:21>> skins got blown up again yesterday.
32:24That's pitching in this day and age
32:27win every single game and be perfect.
32:30>> Paul Ske has had a great season though.
32:31Dylan Ce is at the finish line in the AL
32:34Sai Young and season was on the line and
32:37that was a pathetic effort. So the guy
32:39that's probably going to snatch that
32:41award from him, Tokyo Brandon, your guy
32:44on the bump for the Yankees tonight.
32:47They came out hot last night 5 nothing
32:49before that game even started. A 92
32:52final. And now they've got their ace on
32:54the mound. Schlitler, it's Brandon F for
32:56the home team. Yankees Diamondbacks to
32:58you. How are you seeing this one?
33:00>> Yeah. Uh again, if I haven't mentioned,
33:02I do have a 5% play out today. It's not
33:04in this game. Uh but I did put this game
33:08up as a free play on wager talk.com's
33:11free play page. If you go to the free
33:13play page, all of us cappers put our
33:15free plays on that page. We don't have
33:17one every day. Not everyone has one, but
33:19there's usually about 10 or 15 free
33:22plays on that page. So, you can go check
33:24that out and, you know, feel out a
33:27capper and see what style you like. Uh
33:31so today the Yankees uh face FO and FO
33:36has been having a great season. He's
33:38coming a little bit back down to earth
33:40in his last couple starts. Um
33:42Schlitler's just been amazing and even
33:45without Judge, this Yankee team is is
33:48hitting quite well. Diamondbacks are
33:50putting up runs as well. Um, Schlitler,
33:54I mean, as many innings as he's pitched
33:56to only walk 22% of the guys you're
33:59striking out, his his command and
34:01control is is impeccable. Um, bullpen, I
34:05have the Diamondbacks with a small
34:07advantage here, but I it looks like a
34:09Yankees win to me today. Uh, FO doesn't
34:12have great numbers against these batters
34:13in his history, although this season
34:16this season seems like an outlier to me
34:18for FO. I don't I don't know if this is
34:20really who he is, but uh Adams mentioned
34:23it before on other uh shows previous
34:27this season. He he kind of found another
34:29way to throw his fastball, so he kind of
34:31expanded his arsenal. Um I think the
34:35Yankees can get to him. I It looks like
34:37Yankees to me and and you're getting a
34:39pretty good number with them. What is it
34:40minus 140 or so? I think that's a decent
34:43number for the Yankees. Uh I like them
34:45in this one.
34:47>> Yeah. So, Tokyo Brandon, great point.
34:49Um, Brandon F has figured out how to
34:51throw multiple variations of his fast
34:54ball. It's It's helped It's helped off,
34:57not mine.
34:58>> Well, I mean, here's what I'm going to
35:00bring it into this game. It's helped
35:01offset the fact that he doesn't have
35:04really a great secondary uh like offspe
35:07breaking pitch. The problem here is,
35:10Brian, the Yankees are a really good
35:11fast ball hitting team, guys. I mean,
35:14Ben Rice is one of the best fast ball
35:15hitters in baseball, and this is a good
35:18matchup for him. I'll I'll throw a I'll
35:21throw I think Ben Rice props make sense
35:23in this game. He's heating he's heating
35:26back up. He's starting to hit the ball.
35:27This is a great hitters ballpark, and
35:29he's going to be up against a
35:31right-handed pitcher that's probably
35:32going to give him a steady diet of fast
35:34balls. Ben Rice probably going deep
35:36again today or he's going to hit his
35:37play or he's going to hit props. So rare
35:40prop uh prop suggestion from me. Ben
35:43Rice is going to have a big game. I
35:44think the Yankees have a big game and I
35:46think the Yankees win again on Wood TV.
35:48So Yankees Dbacks to you. Uh do you have
35:51a way into this one?
35:52>> Yeah, you're looking at the Yankees.
35:54They're about a
35:56142 favorite. Uh total of seven and a
35:58half to the under. Pretty heavily juiced
36:00to the under. They're not expecting many
36:02runs here. Two very good starting
36:04pitchers. Although fought as TB kind of
36:07talked about, he's regressed a little
36:09bit lately. Um, and what I'm more
36:12concerned about is not fought. It's uh
36:14the
36:16the uh in the heads of uh Arizona.
36:19There's uh I think they got eight games
36:21to go. They're five games out of the
36:22wild card. A lot of teams to to pass up.
36:25I think they may be done here. I think
36:27the Yankees uh get the victory. Uh it's
36:30it is a pretty cheap number when you
36:32take a look at what Schlitler's done all
36:34the season on the road. He's faced 386
36:37total batters faced. According to fan
36:38graphs, he has a 1.14 road ERA in 103
36:43innings. He's giving up a batting
36:46average of 153, an on base of 203, a
36:50slugging of 250, and a WBA of 204.
36:55Uh I want that on my side if I'm playing
36:58in this game. He's been extremely good
37:00all year and extremely consistent and uh
37:05yeah, I prefer the Yankees and I tried
37:08to find a way to get in there. I will
37:10say um we kind of talked about this
37:12yesterday. It doesn't sound like Judge
37:14is going to be back uh till the end of
37:15the season. He may not be back in the
37:16playoffs. So, they're going to go the
37:18rest of the year without Judge, but um
37:21they, you know, they've got guys coming
37:23off the bench. Paul Paul Goldmid is a
37:25guy that's having a really nice season.
37:27Uh, Cabieros could steal some bases.
37:30They Ramos against lefties or excuse me,
37:32Rosario against lefties. And bringing in
37:34Hel Elliot Ramos uh at the trade
37:36deadline definitely helps them. He'll go
37:38back to starting. Uh he's not a bad
37:40starter. He's not a bad baseball player.
37:42He's not judge, but he's not a bad
37:43baseball player. So, and they're going
37:45to get their other outfielder back soon.
37:47So, uh yeah, I like the Yankees in this
37:49one. And uh it's rare that I'm laying a
37:53decent sized number on the road, but I
37:55don't want Arizona in here. I I think
37:57they're done.
37:58>> Yeah, I would not be betting against the
38:01Yankees
38:02uh when they're up against a
38:04right-handed pitcher at this point. When
38:06you've got Rice, Coh Bellinger, and
38:09Garcia all sort of stacked in there
38:11against a righty, especially one that
38:13throws a good amount of fast balls, this
38:15is uh what I consider a very good
38:17matchup for this Yankee lineup. So, uh
38:20do what you will with that. I I too
38:22thought, you know, obviously you don't
38:23want to lay minus 140 on the road. I
38:25kind of wish I'd bet it at minus 135.
38:26That was that was playable. Now it's a
38:29little bit higher, but Yankees is the
38:31way to go here in my opinion. All right,
38:34Tokyo Brandon. We we still have a time
38:35for a couple more, but I'm curious if
38:37you know what you want your best bet
38:39parlay leg of the show to be.
38:41>> Um, actually, I haven't decided yet.
38:45>> All right, I'll go to the chat. We can
38:47do one. We'll do the other one.
38:49>> While before the next one comes up. All
38:52right, I'm going to I'm going to Brian
38:55Hat. This is a This is another national
38:56TV game. I uh we we didn't talk Dodgers
39:00yesterday uh because I said that there
39:02was better things to talk about and they
39:04were a massive favorite and they're, you
39:06know, they're a massive favorite again
39:07today. Uh but we got Tariq Scooball on
39:10the mound. He is a pitcher that most
39:12want to hear about, want to talk about,
39:14so we're going to do it today. So, for
39:16Brian and all the Dodgers fans out there
39:20or just people that want to talk Dodgers
39:22baseball, uh, Giants Dodgers, Brian
39:24Leonard, this is going to be the night
39:27cap on MLB Network tonight. Uh, I
39:30believe the entire country will get
39:32Tariq at home here against the Giants.
39:35Uh, this series, this quote unquote
39:36rivalry has seen better days. U, that's
39:39because the Giants have are are usually
39:41much better than this. So, big favorites
39:43at home, the Dodgers. Do you have any
39:45way to bet this game?
39:47>> Um, who's pitching for San Francisco
39:49today? It's unlisted on the website or
39:51on uh on Logic.
39:53>> It could be it could be one of a number
39:55of people. I I saw Junior Marte might be
39:57out there. Um I think the Giants are in
40:00just like
40:01>> throw a guy for three or four innings.
40:03They've called up some of their uh I saw
40:04they called Cesar Peromo up the other
40:06day. I mean, you're who knows? It's
40:10going to be someone that's that hasn't
40:11pitched in a few days that is going to
40:14go for three or four innings and then
40:15it's going to be someone that hasn't
40:16pitched in a few days that's going to go
40:18three or four innings and they could
40:19have been at Sacramento. So, buy or
40:21beware. The Giants could throw anyone
40:23out there at this point.
40:24>> Yeah, I I can't lay I can't lay four
40:27dollars into a game where I don't know
40:28who's going to pitch.
40:30>> Uh yeah, the Dodger or uh LA's now up at
40:34minus4 and minus 105. 405 405 404 400 in
40:40all the public uh books around the
40:42country. So yeah, I'm not laying for and
40:45I will say with with Scooble um people
40:47have said that uh he he hasn't been good
40:50with the Dod he's been just as good with
40:51the Dodgers as he was with Detroit. He's
40:54just not getting the run support. Uh
40:56he's been just it's it's still been a
40:57great pickup for the Dodgers and we'll
40:59see that with the playoffs come. I can't
41:01get into this one without uh there's too
41:03many variables in this one, so I'll be
41:04passing.
41:06>> All right, Tokyo Brandon, you don't seem
41:08$4 favorites in Major League Baseball,
41:10but we've got one here. Uh what are you
41:12doing with Dodgers Giants?
41:14>> Yeah. Um for everyone saying Scubble
41:17sucks, blah blah blah. He's given up
41:19five earned runs in his last four
41:20starts. That doesn't suck, you guys. And
41:23his his whip is under one on the season.
41:26That does not suck either. So get
41:28realistic. I mean, for for what we
41:31expected from him, it might be a slight
41:33disappointment. Uh, but he does not
41:35suck. So, uh, Ske, if you said Ski
41:39sucks, I have a hard time defending him
41:41because he looked horrible yesterday
41:42because I was on him,
41:43>> but they still won. I don't know what
41:45his problem is, but
41:46>> still a very good pitcher having a bad
41:48streak.
41:49>> Yeah. Uh, we'll see next year um if he
41:53becomes uh 2024 skins or 2025, but he's
41:58got talent. and I just don't know if
41:59he's putting it together mentally.
42:00Anyways, let's get back to this one. Uh
42:03I you can't you can't lay this price,
42:05especially when the Giants are actually
42:08hitting better than the Dodgers in
42:10current form. I have the Giants 10 and
42:12the Dodgers 14. Um the Dodgers don't
42:16give a rip about these games. Let's be
42:18honest. They're without Pah. They're
42:20without Otani. Uh they're basically
42:23saving those guys for they're saving
42:25guys for the playoffs. They don't care
42:26about these games. Um, Mukie Betts is
42:29not worried if he's going to get a
42:31contract next year. He's worried about
42:34if he's in good condition when the
42:36playoffs start. That's what all these
42:37guys are worried about. Um, and you've
42:41noticed a trend here. Managers are
42:43pulling their starters very early when
42:45they get into even the slightest bit of
42:47trouble. That's because they're saving
42:49them for the playoffs or the teams that
42:51are not in the playoffs, they're they're
42:53saving them for next season. So, we're
42:55going to see a lot of early exits from
42:57people if they're struggling. Um, you
43:00can't play this number, though. Uh,
43:02neither bullpen's very good right now in
43:05current form, but Scooville is amazing.
43:07Uh, I would maybe think about taking a
43:11Giants team total under uh in the first
43:14five. Uh, maybe under one and a half.
43:16Uh, it's a low low total for a major
43:18league baseball team, but uh I might do
43:22it because school's so good. Um, that
43:25would be the only probably bet you could
43:27get decent a decent price on in this
43:30game.
43:31>> I I'll take a stand here just because I
43:34I want to give something like that I
43:35think is is actionable out out and I
43:38don't I I see where you're going with
43:40that and I don't think this fully
43:41contradicts what you just said, but like
43:43for me like my numbers are at seven and
43:44a half. It's over seven minus 110 in a
43:48game that there's a $4 favorite. I mean,
43:52could this absolutely get out of hand at
43:55some point and then after So again, TB,
43:57your your side may very well hit, but
44:00like at the end of this game, could you
44:02see some relievers that could help you
44:04to get to seven runs here? Or could the
44:07Dodgers just score seven runs? That's
44:09not that crazy when you consider that
44:11you might have a couple of of guys in
44:13this game for the Giants that have spent
44:15most of the year at the AAA level. So I
44:17I feel like that over seven is is quite
44:21is low. I I I'm at seven and a half for
44:24a score projection. And when you
44:26consider that you have north of a $4
44:28favorite,
44:30the Dodgers could score seven runs on
44:31their own. So that would be the only
44:34Tucker's heating up. So yeah, I mean
44:37they still got guys who can hit. I mean,
44:40but yeah,
44:41>> that would be the only way I would go.
44:43San Francisco under or Dodgers over.
44:46If you do like the one and a half with
44:47the Dodgers or excuse me with San
44:49Francisco, you can get it upwards of
44:51plus 140. If you like the two and a
44:53half, you can lay it for minus 120.
44:56>> You could take the San Francisco Giants
44:58plus two and a half at minus 120 in a
45:01game they're expecting to score seven
45:02runs in.
45:04>> That would be something that I I would
45:07be interested in is to get them plus two
45:09and a half runs at a minus 120 in a game
45:12with seven. Yeah, it's any anybody can
45:16force two two runs across the board or
45:19two or three runs across the board and
45:21uh Yeah. Yeah.
45:22>> Greg
45:24is actually neither bullpin's actually
45:26lighting the the town up either. So
45:28yeah, I can see that.
45:31>> Um so Logan Webb is not pitching. His
45:33season is over. He is he has a blister.
45:36He is done for the year. Um the
45:38correspond Okay, so this is this gives
45:40some more fire to the over. One of the
45:42corresponding moves is bringing up
45:44Duncan Davitt, who was a guy that was in
45:46the Rays organization for a while. Then
45:48he was in the Braves organization. Uh
45:50the Giants grabbed him because they were
45:52running out of pit people to throw
45:54baseballs at Triple A since they called
45:56a lot of their guys up. Uh he has had a
45:59horrific season in the Miners. Like if
46:02Duncan Davitt's throwing pitches to the
46:03Dodgers in this game,
46:05>> the Dodgers might score seven runs on
46:07their own off him. I mean like there is
46:10I would not want I'll tell you right
46:11now. I would not want an under seven
46:13knowing what the Giants might trot out
46:15at some point in this game. Um there's
46:19that would be a scary under seven.
46:21Scooble could throw a no hitter could
46:23still go over some with what the Giants
46:25are putting out there. So yeah, that is
46:27uh but you will not see Logan Webb uh
46:29for the rest of the season. He is done
46:31for the year. Tokyo Brandon coming to
46:33you. Freeird says incredible show. He is
46:36he says it's wild in AU. He is at the
46:38Auburn game hopefully already with a
46:40beverage in hand. hopefully getting some
46:42tailgating in. Uh he wants to know what
46:44your best total today is, but also give
46:47us your parlay leg. So, uh if it's the
46:49same thing, great. If not, tell us what
46:51your best total is and also tell us
46:53where you're going for the parlay.
46:55>> Okay. Um so, I do have my parlay leg and
46:58I heard Auburn's campus is really
47:00beautiful, too. So, enjoy yourself out
47:02there.
47:04>> I have not, but Drew Martin bets Drew
47:06Martin Betts went to Auburn says the
47:08same thing. Just beautiful place. I will
47:10get down there someday.
47:11>> I heard it's a beautiful campus,
47:13beautiful women, not quite as beautiful
47:15as miss, but heard it's pretty pretty
47:18nice out there. Nice southern
47:20hospitality. Um, total I think we just I
47:23I think I like the Mariners uh Rockies
47:26over in that game. That's my favorite
47:28total of the day, but and we already
47:30covered that game. So, let me get to my
47:32parlay. Uh, if you don't mind, uh, let's
47:35talk about, and this is not my my my 5%
47:38play. I do have a 5% play out today.
47:41My parlay leg is going to be the
47:43Guardians today. I like the Guardians
47:45over the Athletics because
47:48uh I mean the Guardians have let me down
47:51quite a few times this season, but on
47:53paper they they look like a really good
47:56team. Like my numbers are just slapping
47:58me in the face saying this team is good,
48:01but then when I watch them they're not
48:02really that good. So I don't know what
48:04to make of this team. But they do have
48:07the number six rated bullpen. Uh their
48:10hitting is well above mediocre and their
48:13starting pitcher today. Uh hang on a
48:16second.
48:18>> Yeah, by uh my rankings were uh
48:21backwards. I I had the wrong pitcher
48:23with the wrong team. So yeah, Bobby, I
48:26got him slightly below mediocre with his
48:28expected numbers. Uh but that's right on
48:31par about with Jacob Lopez. I got them
48:33pretty neck andneck. Uh, but besides
48:36starting pitcher,
48:38everything else points Guardians here.
48:41Uh, I know they're minus 189. I I
48:44wouldn't put that out as a moneyline
48:45play for my clients, but for a parlay
48:48league, I think that's acceptable. So,
48:50I'm going to go with the Guardians here
48:52on the money line. They they they need
48:54it. Uh, and uh I I just think they're
48:57overall a much better team.
49:00>> It's closer to 180 right now with a
49:02total of seven and a half to the over.
49:04Uh, I've seen an ate at a couple places,
49:06but uh, if you're looking for southern
49:08hospitality in Mississippi, you're not
49:10going to find that tonight in the on the
49:12grid iron, I'll tell you that.
49:15>> Yeah. Yeah, that's that's one place I'
49:17I'd actually like to be right now.
49:19Nothing against anything here in Vegas,
49:20but that would be the place to be if
49:22they're today.
49:24>> Uh, Lopez, the lefty going against
49:26Bobby. Um, Bobby doesn't get a lot of
49:29run support uh, when he pitches and his
49:32record's been terrible because of that.
49:34and they seem to leave him in when he's
49:37clearly doesn't have he's losing it
49:39later in the game there because he's a
49:42veteran. They keep him in there longer.
49:43I wish they would pull him at the first
49:45get somebody up in the bullpen in the
49:46fourth inning and uh because these games
49:48are too important to them. I can't lay
49:51this number with Cleveland. Uh but yeah,
49:53they're the better team here, but they
49:55don't hit lefties. And uh the back in
49:58the bullpen, Cleveland's had a lot of
49:59close games with Chicago. uh that you're
50:02gonna get some lesser arms in that
50:04Cleveland bullpen, chances are today.
50:06So, uh can't lay the number with
50:08Cleveland, but hey, as a baseball fan
50:10and a and a Cleveland Indians fan, not
50:13the Guardians, the Indians, um I'll be
50:16rooting for you.
50:18>> Yeah,
50:19>> their lesser arms are probably better
50:20than the Athletics good arms, though.
50:23>> Well, that's definitely probably that
50:26that that right there is probably what
50:28keeps me off the A's in this game. like
50:30I thought this was a pretty inflated
50:32number. I've liked the way Jacob Lopez
50:33has thrown the ball. I I still think the
50:35A's are showing up to to to give an
50:38effort each day. Um they've been doing
50:40it all month and I expect them to do it
50:42right until the end of the year. But the
50:43thing that would concern me from um now
50:46again this the plus one and a half may
50:48still be in play, but like the thing
50:49that probably concerns me the most here
50:51for the A's is who's in the game in the
50:54big spot for them today. Uh the bullpen
50:56has been used up a little bit. the
50:58bullpen is not very good. So, I
51:00definitely I kind of talked myself off
51:03of that plus one and a half with the
51:05with the A's knowing late game it's in
51:08Cleveland. The Guardians seem to always
51:10find a way to get the timely hit uh in a
51:12big game like this, especially at home.
51:14Big game for them, of course. Uh that
51:16kind of put me off the A's, but um value
51:19here is the A's. Guardians won't be
51:22surprised if they win. This is just it's
51:24winning time for the Guardians. This is
51:26what they seem to do in September. The
51:29division is now in their grasps there.
51:31The division is now theirs. It's theirs
51:33to lose. This is the first time all year
51:36I think you can officially say the
51:37division is the Guardians to lose and
51:40they seem to step up in these spots. So,
51:42for Tokyo Brandon's sake, I hope they
51:44get it. And for Brian's sake, I hope
51:45they get it done. Brian, uh, could you
51:47give us a money line for that Guardians
51:49right there?
51:49>> Yeah, it's about the 180 range. Uh,
51:52seeing some 175s. I'm seeing some 185s,
51:55but 180s is about it.
51:59>> All right. And, uh, to ju just to finish
52:01the answer to Freeird's original
52:04question, if I had to give a total out
52:05today, I I would go over in that Dodgers
52:07Giants game. Over seven, uh, is probably
52:10the the total that shows the most value
52:13to me of the games that we talked about.
52:16All right, we are at the end of the
52:18show. We've got to get off because
52:19college football uh is coming up I
52:21believe at the top of the hour. Uh so
52:22Brian, anything to promote today um on
52:25the site? Football, baseball, what do
52:26you got going on?
52:28>> Yeah, the you got the weekend warrior
52:29package is up. You get all of our
52:31football from now through Monday night
52:33football, I believe, at a special price.
52:35I swept the board last Saturday. Uh won
52:38again last night. So, uh six straight
52:40winners going into today. I got four
52:42plays up and possibly more. And in
52:44baseball, I'll be putting my plays up a
52:46little bit later. Um, you saw the day
52:48game. I said I like Detroit. It's my
52:50best bet on this show. So, um, yeah,
52:52that's what I got going today. Everybody
52:54have a great weekend. By the way,
52:56>> Tokyo Brandon's got a 5% MLB play, so
52:59check that out. I have a 5% NFL play
53:01that goes tomorrow. Coupon code Adam10.
53:04We'll take $10 off of that. Um, and the
53:07three team for the day is as follows.
53:10Three, three full game money lines. Nice
53:13and simple. Guardians on the money line.
53:15Mariners on the money line. Tigers on
53:17the money line. That's Tigers plus 120.
53:19Mariners - 155. Guardians - 180.
53:23ThreeTeamer. Let's cash this one. Tokyo
53:26Brandon, are you doing your show
53:27tomorrow? Are you doing a Sunday show? I
53:30am. And I'm also going to do the Sunday
53:32night Brewers game. I'm going to do a
53:34live betting live watch party show on my
53:37channel as well. So, I got you covered
53:38Sunday morning and Sunday night. And I
53:41have a 5% play today. Only play of the
53:44day. So,
53:45>> yep.
53:45>> I will I will be on with Rob Vino 10 am
53:48tomorrow. It'll be uh for week two NFL.
53:51Uh great turnout for the show last week.
53:53Uh it is the same format as this and as
53:56Fullcourt press. So, we hit the NFL
53:59games last second, try to find those
54:01last second bets. Uh that is called the
54:02playbook that is on at 10 a.m. Eastern
54:05right here on the Wager Talk YouTube
54:06channel with Last Call following
54:08directly after. Stay tuned. Again, we've
54:10got great programming here on the Wager
54:11Talk YouTube channel all morning and the
54:14three of us will see you guys Monday for
54:15more Total Basis. Have a great weekend,
54:17everybody.