MLB Picks Today ⚾ Tuesday Betting Preview, Odds & Best Bets | Total Bases 9/22

0:03Okay, welcome in. It's Tuesday. It's

0:05time for Total Bases. It's $5 Tuesday at

0:08Wager Talk. The three of us will have

0:10stuff up for sale. Um, Tokyo Brandon, I

0:13know you had a great weekend. Did it

0:15continue into Monday night. How was your

0:16night?

0:18>> It actually did. Uh, I had the uh the

0:21over in the uh Tigers game. That was a

0:24pretty easy one. Eight was way too low

0:26for that one, I thought. So, that was

0:28good. And now my Asian plays. Yeah, I'm

0:31kind of winning a couple of the big

0:34ones, losing a couple of the little

0:35ones. So, I think I'm going to come out

0:36with a profit here as well this morning.

0:40>> Brian, uh, quiet night for me. Didn't

0:42get there with any plays on last night's

0:44slate. Um, so yeah, I didn't lose

0:46anything. That's good news. Um, how was

0:48your Monday? Did you find anything to

0:49bet on?

0:50>> No, I knew early on that I wasn't going

0:53to have anything. Nothing fit into my

0:55numbers. And uh I'm willing to pass when

0:58I don't find anything. And uh giving

1:01winners to my clients is more important

1:03than any kind of money we could have

1:04made from making any sales. So yeah,

1:07we're we're in this for the long haul.

1:09And I think everybody that's watched

1:10this show long enough knows we're all

1:12three of us in that that same way. Um

1:15but yeah, I didn't find anything

1:16yesterday and uh yeah, good thing I

1:18didn't play anything.

1:21>> Yeah, I uh I same thing for me. Um,

1:24obviously in hindsight, kind of wish I

1:26played the Tigers. Uh, it was the one

1:27thing I sort of talked about on the show

1:29and that ended up being an easy win. Uh,

1:31but, you know, not going to force it.

1:33Couldn't get there with it. Um, and so

1:35we move on to today. I will say this, I

1:37have a 5% MLB play up today. Now, it's

1:40$5 Tuesday. That won't be part of $5

1:43Tuesday, but um, they extended the

1:45coupon code Adam10 for one more day. So,

1:49if you want the 5enter, it's going to be

1:52full price on the site, but coupon code

1:54Adam10 at least knocks $10 off. So, it's

1:57uh you know, it'll it's a discounted 5%.

1:59Um and and you know what? I also just to

2:02make it worth your while am going to

2:04give out a client play on the show

2:06that's not going to cost you any

2:07dollars. So, I'm going to give a free

2:08one out on the show and you got coupon

2:10code Adam10 to take $10 off that 5%

2:14play. All right, we are going to get

2:17started with the double header today.

2:19It's Yankees Rays. Uh game two is nally

2:22televised. Game one is standalone. Uh

2:25it's the only day game on Thursday's

2:27slate. So Brian, I'll come to you first.

2:29Um open it up. Game one or game two. Are

2:33you seeing any way to get involved with

2:35the Yankees or the Rays uh in this

2:37double header today?

2:39>> Well, first of all, I'll head to the

2:41weather situation here. Uh especially

2:43with the wind, there's a lot of wind

2:45going on blowing in um in double digits

2:49in a few different parks. You're going

2:51to see some lines and you're going to

2:52say, "Wait a minute, why is that total

2:54only seven and a half or whatever?" Uh

2:56PNC Park is blowing in and they're

2:59expecting 11% less runs. Fenway Park 11%

3:02which is why we're seeing a six and a

3:04half in Fenway Park that we never see.

3:08Um and of course Seattle's blowing in.

3:10Yankee Stadium is blowing in 18%.

3:13They're expecting one and a half less

3:15runs a game. That's something to keep in

3:16mind here. And Wrigley Field blowing

3:19straight in. Not blowing hard, but still

3:2120% uh wind uh blowing in. So they're

3:25they're expecting like two less runs

3:27there. So keep that in mind when you're

3:29looking at some of these numbers. You

3:30go, "Oh my god, look at that number. I

3:32got to play with that over." Um so we're

3:35looking at Tampa Bay and the Yankees.

3:36They're playing two games here. Um,

3:38Tampa Bay has won six of the nine games

3:41on the season. Um, I have to feel that

3:45this these two games are much more

3:48important to the Yankees than they are

3:49to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is playing great

3:52going into the playoffs. The Yankees

3:54not so much. And I think the Yankees

3:57need to uh need to at least split this

3:59series today or possibly win them both.

4:03I prefer the Yankees in both these

4:05games, but the only way you're going to

4:07end up with a profit in that is if they

4:08sweep. And Tampa Bay is too good for me

4:12to expect them to be swept. So, um, my

4:15my leans are with the Yankees. Yankees

4:17are going with a couple of lefties. They

4:19got Rodone in game one against Martinez

4:21and in game two, they're going with

4:23Freed against Rasmusen. Uh, two guys for

4:26Tampa Bay having great seasons. Uh,

4:29don't know how long they will keep them

4:30in there. I I would assume uh they Tampa

4:35Bay is going to start cutting back down

4:36on their starting pitching uh innings.

4:39So if you're betting on anybody getting

4:41a a victory in that regard, um I I keep

4:46that in mind for everybody the rest of

4:47the season. We're already seeing a lot

4:49of teams, you know, the Dodgers bringing

4:52up guys and and Detroit brought up uh

4:54you know, the guy yesterday pitched

4:56really well for first three innings. So

4:58a lot of teams doing that. They're

4:59cutting back on how long these guys are

5:01going to pitch. So, uh, keep that in

5:03mind if you do bet. Um, chances of

5:06somebody getting the victory, keep that

5:08in mind. It's going to be lower now. Uh,

5:11so basically, I like the Yankees, but I

5:13can't get there because they'd have to

5:14sweep to order to make a profit. So,

5:16I'll pass.

5:18Tokyo Brandon, game one, game two,

5:21Yankees raised. We know the pitching

5:23matchups in both. Are you targeting

5:25anything here?

5:27>> Quick promotion. It is $2

5:30Tuesday, guys. And we were notified that

5:32the double play and triple play specials

5:35will be uh finished on September 24th.

5:39So, it is a good time to get a double

5:40play. Two of us. And if you saw Wager

5:44Talks uh Twitter X feed, you saw that

5:46Adam and I are vying for second place

5:48among the 33 cappers in profit. Uh both

5:51of us are over 80 units. Uh Brian is

5:53number one the last 18 months, I

5:55believe. So, all of us

5:56>> last month. Yeah.

5:57>> 13. Okay. So, uh, can't really go wrong

6:00with either two of us. So, grab a double

6:02play before it expires. I have a few

6:04plays up for $5 Tuesday. I'm sure my

6:06comrades here will. Also, I'm going to

6:09do an Asian baseball show tonight at

6:118:00 p.m. Eastern. Just letting you know

6:13on my channel. So, let's get on with

6:16this. Uh, the Dodgers and the I'm sorry,

6:19the Yankees and the Rays. Um, nobody's

6:22bullpin's playing better than the Rays

6:23according to my numbers. uh got them

6:25ranked number one in MLB right now in

6:28current form. Uh Yankees toiling in

6:31mediocrity, but the Yankees have the

6:33lineup advantage. Have them hitting

6:35eight in MLB where I got the Rays a

6:38little lower in mediocrity as well.

6:41Starting pitchers for the first one,

6:42Nick Martinez, Carlos Rodone. I don't

6:44see a lot of separation between these

6:46two guys. So, I'm not going to play game

6:48one, but game two kind of interests me

6:50because we've got Freed going against

6:54Raspersonson. These are two stellar

6:57starting pitchers. Uh they might not be,

6:59you know, top five elite elite guys, but

7:02they're definitely uh in in the top

7:05echelon of pitchers in in Major League

7:08Baseball. Uh Rays, the Rays are

7:11producing runs, but they're not exactly

7:13uh crushing the ball right now. So, I

7:15might think about a raise team total

7:18under in that one. Or I might consider a

7:20first five under in the second game, not

7:23the first. But these two pitchers are

7:25pitching really well. And no matter how

7:26quickly they get taken out, uh I I think

7:30they'll let them go five innings. And

7:32even if they don't let them go five

7:33innings, you know, this Tampa Bay

7:35bullpen is just on fire. So, I think in

7:39the second game, I'll think about doing

7:40a first five under.

7:44>> All right. So, I did play in this double

7:46header. Um, and just if you So, we have,

7:48you know, we enter our plays into the

7:51website and then you guys get them. Ju

7:53just to give you an idea of how like

7:55strong and sophisticated our back-end

7:57software is. Like you you should rarely

7:59or almost never get a stale line because

8:02they they change like in real time. So,

8:04like I'm going to put this play in and

8:07within the time that I'm like typing it

8:09just literally entering into the system.

8:11Uh it not only did it move 10 cents on

8:14the screens, it moved 10 cents on our

8:16backend system. So like you know that

8:18just to you where you're getting those

8:19lines. You should never see a line that

8:21you couldn't have gotten. Now this one

8:23uh m point I didn't get it in before the

8:26line sort of ticked up. So I played the

8:28Yankees. So this is what you're getting

8:29for free here today. Again, I got the 5%

8:32play um up for later tonight. Coupon

8:34code Adam10 gets you $10 off. I'm also

8:37giving you a 4% play in Yanke in game

8:40one of this double header. I played

8:41Yankees game one. Here I am. Thumbs

8:44weren't fast enough, Brian. I thought I

8:45was getting minus 115 and before I could

8:49even hit submit, it's already minus25.

8:51Not only on everywhere pretty much, but

8:54actually that's not true. You can find

8:56some minus 120s right now. Uh but our

8:58back end had updated that quickly. So

9:00hopefully a move point. Hopefully it

9:02doesn't matter if the Yankees win. We're

9:04still cashing for four units. So, uh,

9:06but that's what I've got. Reason reason

9:08I like the Yankees here. So, go back a

9:10couple weeks. I, you know, the Yankees

9:12aren't going to win the division

9:13anymore. I thought they had a chance.

9:15Uh, if you go back a week, a week maybe,

9:17I I forget when we talked about that.

9:20The reason I thought the Yankees were

9:21going to have a chance is I thought they

9:22would get to this series uh, closer than

9:25they are. Of course, the weekend made

9:27sure that didn't happen. Yankees dropped

9:29two in Arizona. Rays win two um, win

9:32their last two games. And going back

9:34into the early se portion of last week,

9:37the Ray the Rays just took care of

9:38business. They never lost to the A's and

9:40they built themselves up a nice cushion.

9:42So the Yankees are not probably not

9:44playing for anything here. But I'll tell

9:46you what, I don't think the Yankees are

9:48are I don't think they want the Rays

9:50celebrating on on their field in their

9:53locker room. I'm sure if the Yanke I'm

9:55sure the Yankees are like, "Hey, let's

9:58at least make them sweat a little bit,

9:59right?" like Yankees were to go out and

10:01sweep a four game series, they would go

10:03into the final weekend where the Rays

10:05still have to do something. Uh that, you

10:08know, they probably will, but then

10:10again, the Rays have to go to Philly

10:12this weekend. So, it's a it's kind of a

10:14pipe dream for the Yankees at this

10:15point. But I think the motivation here

10:17for the Yankees is far more, hey, like

10:20this is our house. We're at home. We

10:22just played not very good baseball the

10:25last two days in Arizona. let's at least

10:27come out and and not let this team

10:30celebrate an AL East title on our field.

10:32Uh so that's what puts me in just from a

10:35situational standpoint on the Yankees.

10:37And then from a matchup standpoint, I

10:39far prefer game one here. I'm really

10:42hoping the Yankees get it done in game

10:44one so I can just ignore game two

10:46because I think game two is a is a

10:47little bit of a tighter matchup. But you

10:49know, you got Carlos Rodone against Nick

10:52Martinez.

10:53Nick Martinez had a tremendous season,

10:55but I do think that there's still some,

10:58>> it's not that I think he regresses at

11:00this point, but I'll go back to a point

11:02I made on Friday with the Yankees where

11:04>> they they just pounded Eduardo Rodriguez

11:07and it's like Nick Martinez, I think you

11:09can get away like you can get away with

11:11the way he pitches at the Trop and

11:14against certain teams, but like I don't

11:16think the Yankees are one of those teams

11:17where he's going to get away with just

11:20generating a lot of contact, not having

11:22the ball leave the ballpark like the the

11:25Yankees, in my opinion, are in position

11:27to make him pay. And finally, this

11:30Yankees lineup sets up better against

11:32right-handed pitching. So, I'm in with

11:34the Yankees here. I took Yankees minus

11:38125. Thought I was going to get minus

11:40115, but no. Quick move to minus 125.

11:43Uh, you can still find minus 120s out

11:45there. We have to quote the very, very

11:48widely available book. So all of the

11:50lines that we quote on the site is

11:51typically going to be DraftKings,

11:53FanDuel, Caesars, MG. I'm the ones that

11:55like pretty much everyone can get. So

11:57minus 125 for me on the Yankees in game

12:00one. But shop that around because I'm

12:02still looking at my screen right now. I

12:04see minus 120s, maybe even a minus19,

12:07minus18 out there. Uh so yeah, I like

12:09the Yankees. I think they at least make

12:12the Rays sweat a little bit into the

12:13night cap and win the afternoon game.

12:17Okay, that also is going to be my leg of

12:19the parlay. I should have pointed that

12:20out. I will use Yankees game one. Brian,

12:23am I is it What are we looking at for

12:25widely available right now?

12:27>> 125. Yeah.

12:29>> Yeah. And and listen, if you subscribe

12:31to again there was a that moved 10 cents

12:35very quickly um from I I think at about

12:388:30. I was going to punch it in maybe

12:408:40 um right before the show. quick

12:4410-cent move across some of the bigger

12:46books. So, do what you will with that.

12:50But yeah, for the parlay, we will go

12:51Yankees game one

12:54and that's minus 125. So, we've got my

12:56parlay leg out of the way. That is a 4%

12:59client play for me. I'm giving it to you

13:01for free today because I have a 5enter

13:04up tonight. It obviously is not part of

13:07$5 Tuesday, but you can use coupon code

13:10Adam10 to get $10 off. Okay. Hot start

13:13to the show. Let's go back to the chat.

13:15Alex Ran checking in. Appreciate the

13:18donation. All the donations to the show

13:20as always go to one of the charities

13:22that the home office works with. So,

13:24thank you very much for the donation. He

13:26says, "Morning fellas. Important games

13:28going today. I'm torn on two." So,

13:30whichever uh you have more of a lean on

13:33is much appreciated. Mets Rangers or

13:37White Socks Royals? Brian, dealer's

13:40choice to you. Which game do you want to

13:41talk about more, Mets, Rangers or White

13:43Sox Royals? You pick.

13:45>> Let's Let's go to the White Sox Royals

13:46because this will be my part of the

13:48parlay. Uh we're going with Kay and

13:51Lynch. A couple of lefties going K and

13:53Lynch. And uh Kay is about a one

13:57115 favorite right now with a total of

14:00eight to the under. Um let me just get

14:04quickly to those team pages here.

14:10Um, if you've been following me at all

14:13this year, you know I've been playing

14:15the White Sox games over when they have

14:17a day off. They had yesterday they had a

14:19day off and we're getting a number here.

14:22Um, I'm seeing even some seven and a

14:24halfs minus, you know, 113. Well,

14:27actually 120 on some 7 and 1 halfs. Um,

14:32I am going to play this game over. Uh

14:34the White Sox have been hitting well all

14:36season long after they've had that day

14:38off. And I and I will point out that

14:41yes, the winds are blowing in slightly,

14:43but they're only expecting a half a run

14:45differential.

14:47It's blowing straight in, but they're

14:49they're weak numbers in that regard.

14:54Are we anybody else hearing that?

14:57>> Yeah, I don't know where that's coming

14:58from. Tokyo, mute yourself for one

15:01second. I just want to test something.

15:06We have a little feedback here.

15:08>> I think it's probably on Tokyo Brandon's

15:10end because I'm not hearing it now.

15:12Yeah.

15:12>> So, go ahead.

15:14>> We'll give him a second to fix that.

15:15Keep your keep your breakdown going.

15:17>> Yeah, no problem. Uh, so the winds are

15:19blowing in slightly. They're expecting a

15:20half a run less than normal, but the way

15:23since Chicago's hit with after that day

15:25off here, um, Lynch is a guy who's

15:28they've been stretching him out. He's

15:30had his good starts and his bad starts.

15:32Anthony Kay, very similar. So, we're

15:35getting, you know, an eight an eight to

15:37the under here with what I would

15:39consider two average starting pitchers

15:42in Major League Baseball if I give them

15:44that kind of a break. Um, in a ballpark

15:47that they move the fences in and, uh,

15:49it's more of a home run hitting

15:51ballpark. But yes, this the wind is

15:53blowing in a little bit, but I think

15:54they're overreacting here. And as I see

15:56another another place go to seven and a

15:59half here. So now there's as many seven

16:01and a halfs as there is ace. A lot of

16:03people early on betting this under. I'

16:06like to play contrarian. So I'm going to

16:08play this game over.

16:10Uh the white Let's take a look at what

16:11they've done against lefties on the

16:13season. The White Sox have a 109 uh WRC

16:16plus. The the U Royals haven't been as

16:18good. They're at 91 as opposed to 100.

16:21Uh so if you add those up, it's a it's a

16:24league average game. So the, you know,

16:26comes up to 200, which is which is

16:29league average. And I just don't think

16:31that uh these pitchers are strong enough

16:34even with the wind blowing it at, you

16:36know, just 6 miles an hour or something.

16:38That's not enough to make a

16:39differential. So I am going to take

16:41advantage of all these books going down

16:43and I'm going to play the over and I can

16:46get uh seven overs minus 120. 7 and a

16:49half, excuse me. Seven and a half overs

16:51minus 120 at half the books. Yeah, I'm

16:53going to go with that. Uh, I've seen it

16:55enough to the White Sox games. Like I

16:57said, I think it's 19 straight times

16:59they've had a day off. The next day they

17:01come out and it goes over. Don't believe

17:03in either one of these pitchers being

17:04that great. So, yeah, if I can get eight

17:07runs here, go three to three. We're in

17:09pretty good shape. So, I'll play the

17:10over on that one.

17:13>> All right, let's get Tokyo Brandon back

17:14in. I think I think he's probably fixed

17:16whatever that was. So, let's uh let's

17:18get you in here on White Socks Royals.

17:20How are you seeing this one?

17:21>> Yeah. Um, sorry, I punched my microphone

17:25by accident, so maybe that's what caused

17:27it. I was grabbing my water. But

17:29anyways, um, I totally agree with Brian.

17:32I don't really have much else to add

17:34except that I think Anthony K has had a

17:36good season, but I think he's been

17:38really lucky because my advanced numbers

17:40have him ranked 24th out of 30. So, uh,

17:43on a scale of 30, uh, both of these

17:46bullpens are 23rd or worse. Uh lineups.

17:50I don't have huge faith in the lineups,

17:53but anyone in MLB should be able to

17:55score seven runs when you put two teams

17:57together with these horrible bullpens

18:00and two starters that I really don't

18:02like. Um Lynch is walking way too many

18:05people. He's walking 64% of the guys

18:07he's striking out. Uh Kay has his

18:10command so so under control, but like I

18:12said, his advanced stance stats point to

18:17him being extremely lucky. And uh I

18:20don't think he's at that good to be

18:22honest. So uh I totally agree with

18:25Brian's over. I I I see it eight. I see

18:28it seven and a half. Whatever you can

18:29get. I think this this looks like one of

18:31those 10 to six kind of games to me.

18:35>> Yeah. I I I mean, listen, seven and a

18:38half starts to starts to creep in on,

18:41you know, where you're really talking

18:43about potentially elite pitching.

18:45>> Um I I think the depending on how the

18:48game plays out,

18:50>> like

18:51>> the White Socks here could use Hagen

18:53Smith. They could use Grant Taylor. That

18:55would certainly if they if they go like

18:57let's say this is a close game and they

18:58go with the combination of using Taylor

19:02and Hagen Smith in the in the you know

19:04later innings of this game that's going

19:06to keep the the scoring down for the

19:07Royals. But here's the thing like the

19:09the White Socks have some work to do.

19:11Okay, the White Socks are still in a a

19:14battle with the Guardians in the in the

19:17AL Central. They still need to win a

19:20game or two to secure the wild card. I

19:23believe coming into today, technically

19:25the Astros are three games back of them.

19:27So granted, like you look at the White

19:29Sox schedule, three at the Royals, three

19:31at home against the Rockies, I think

19:32they feel pretty good about at least

19:34getting to the playoffs. But I'll tell

19:35you what, especially if you're a team

19:37like the White Socks that doesn't um

19:40that that doesn't, you know, hasn't had

19:42a ton of of winning success over the

19:44years. I I don't think they want to go

19:46into the weekend like needing to win

19:48games. That that doesn't, you know, I

19:49think they want to take care of business

19:51here. Now, what does that mean for the

19:52total? Uh, that I think in a close game,

19:55they probably will use Hagen Smith and

19:57Grant Taylor. However, if it's not a

19:59close game, like let's say there's runs

20:02early. Let's say the White Socks get an

20:03early lead. Or the other way around,

20:05let's say the Royals get to Anthony Kay,

20:08both very possible because again,

20:10neither of these starters are guys that

20:12I think you're just going to like set

20:13your watch to going out and firing five

20:16scoreless. I know Daniel Lynch has been

20:17a little bit better of late, but you

20:19know, these are two Daniel Lynch has

20:21spent a lot of time at TripleA and and

20:22like Tokyo Brandon said, Anthony Kay,

20:25he's he's had flashes, but he hasn't I,

20:27you know, I was higher on him coming

20:28into the season. I I I would say I'm

20:31mostly disappointed. I thought he had a

20:33chance to be like so one of these guys

20:35that like comes back from Japan or Korea

20:37and kind of has a breakout year. He's

20:39been okay at times, but not like been

20:42okay. So, point is this. If you have a

20:44game here where one side is up by like

20:48multiple runs, I think if the White

20:50Socks are trailing, they're going to sit

20:52on Taylor and Smith till tomorrow

20:55because they need they need to make sure

20:56when they use Taylor and Smith this

20:58week, that that's a win. That's

21:00imperative. Uh that when they go and

21:02say, "These two are in the game. We need

21:04you to win the game." They need to make

21:05sure it's a win. If they're up, if the

21:07White Sox have a big lead in this game,

21:09they're probably not going to use either

21:10of them because they're still trying to

21:12win the division. So, they're still

21:13looking at this like we got to put

21:15ourselves in the best chance to to win

21:18the division, which is only a oneame

21:19difference between Cleveland right now.

21:21So, there are a couple scenarios, Brian,

21:23where I think even if even if this were

21:25to be a lowscoring game early, you might

21:28see some of the depth guys late in this

21:30game, which probably gets you over the

21:32seven and a half. So, uh I was at and my

21:35my projection here is at 8.1. So, I'm

21:37I'm with you on the over.

21:39>> Yeah. Not only does the White Sox up by

21:41three three games over Houston, they've

21:44only got six games to play. So, uh you

21:46can definitely see Chicago not even

21:49having a very good weekend and backing

21:50into the playoffs. I think it's pretty

21:52much they're in there. Um but any any

21:56win could help. But yeah, you're right.

21:57Having the day off definitely helps the

21:58bullpen. Um the closer hasn't pitched

22:01in, you know, two days. So, uh yeah, the

22:04bullpen's in pretty good shape for this

22:05game as well.

22:09Okay. Yeah, let's uh No, I again I think

22:12there's I definitely think there are

22:14scenarios where you know I think if you

22:16like the over in that game, you're

22:18rooting for someone to take a lead. Like

22:20you don't you don't want like a 3-2 game

22:22going into the later innings. If you

22:24have someone that has a decent lead in

22:25that game, I think you're going to uh I

22:27think you're going to get your over

22:29eventually.

22:31All right, let's get back to the chat.

22:32Wow, we're we are off to a hot start.

22:34We've got a client play out already.

22:36We've got um

22:38>> two legs.

22:38>> Brian's already giving out his parlay.

22:41>> I'm gonna go to our friend Brian Hat

22:42here.

22:43>> Brian Hat in the chat right here for

22:46some Dodger baseball. He says Dodgers

22:49just swept San Francisco the hated

22:51rival. Now we've got San Diego on a nine

22:54and one heater coming in and the Dodgers

22:56are plus one and a half. Well, I I I the

22:58Dodgers are probably if they're plus one

23:00and a half, they're probably laying good

23:02amount of juice for the plus one and a

23:03half. I think this is a relatively

23:06competitively priced game here. I know

23:08the Dodgers were still kicking around

23:09who they wanted to start this game. So

23:13again, you've got Michael King for the

23:14Padres's.

23:16The Padres's Listen, I think the Dodgers

23:19care more about the Padres's these days

23:21than the Giants. I know that the the old

23:23rivalry is Dodgers Giants. Brian's

23:27nodding, so I'm gonna go to him first. I

23:29think the Giants still care a lot more

23:31about the Dodgers than vice versa. I

23:34think recently the Dodgers put a little

23:36bit more stock into the quote unquote,

23:38if you want to call it, rivalry with the

23:41Padres's. It's just these have been the

23:43two teams the past half decade that have

23:46that have been at the top of this

23:47division. I think these are just bigger

23:50games. So, in my opinion, I if you

23:53wanted to like I don't think the Dodgers

23:55like looked ahead. Like I could think

23:56they could care less about the Giants at

23:58this point, especially this year. The

24:00Giants so far out of it. They went

24:02through the motions all weekend. They

24:03won all three games. Now you get the

24:05Padres's coming into town. Brian, you

24:07were nodding. What What What do you

24:08think? Is there Is there going to be

24:10juice in this series? Padres's Dodgers.

24:12>> Yeah. If you're looking at uh the plus

24:14one and a half, which is the reverse um

24:16run line, you you're you're laying $2.

24:20So, it's only out at a couple places.

24:21Most of them have the Dodgers minus the

24:24one and a half at plus

24:27175 range, something like that. So, I

24:30just wanted to clear that up a little

24:31bit. Uh, Kings going for San Diego. Uh,

24:34the Dodgers haven't decided on their

24:36starting pitcher right now. Um, it

24:38should be

24:40um Yamamoto is listed now, at least on

24:46roster resource, he's listed to go

24:48Wednesday. So, they haven't announced

24:50anybody. I know uh Suzaki is coming

24:53back, but from what I have read, they're

24:54going to pitch him out of the bullpen,

24:56so it will not be him. So, I'm expecting

24:59to have somebody Let's take a look at

25:01their longer relievers that they have

25:03had. Um

25:06Reblowski pitched last uh Thursday, 32

25:10pitches. I would assume that Justin

25:12Reblowski will

25:15get the start in this game. um and

25:17they'll go from bullpen after that. They

25:20did bring up Edwin Diaz back up and he's

25:22pitched decently well since he came back

25:25from the IIL. So hopefully he's he's

25:27filled in his problems he had before.

25:30But from bullpen standpoint, uh they all

25:32had yesterday off. Uh Tanner Scott

25:35pitched two of the last three days

25:36before that. So nothing major from that.

25:39Uh getting Bubik back is is a help to

25:42this Dodgers bullpen as well. I actually

25:45with the current the way the current

25:47line is right now, we're looking at the

25:49Dodgers with an undecided pitcher in

25:51about the 125 range with a total of

25:53nine. Uh I like King, but I'm with you.

25:58I think the Dodgers

26:00uh don't care about the Giants at this

26:01point. You know, being being from

26:04Cleveland, they were never very good.

26:06And they always said the Yankees were

26:08the rivalry because of sign and all, but

26:10the Yankees didn't have any interest in

26:12Cleveland. All they want used Cleveland

26:13for was to pick up their free agents and

26:15their in their outbid everybody when

26:17they became a free agent. So, um I think

26:20that's the way the Dodgers feel about

26:21the Giants. I I am going to wait to see

26:25what the Dodgers are going to do here

26:26because they haven't announced anything,

26:28but I would think it's forky and then a

26:30bullpen from that point on and that's

26:31enough to get me involved in this price

26:34range. San Diego is a good team. San

26:36Diego's playing very well, but now

26:38they're going up against the Dodgers.

26:39And this is a rivalry game with the

26:41Dodgers uh on the edge of the playoffs.

26:44They haven't had play had to play too

26:46many meaningful games. Or is San Diego

26:48because they struggle so much in the

26:50first half of the season. They played a

26:52lot of meaningful games. So I think we

26:54get the best out of the Dodgers here.

26:55And at that price range, I'm slightly

26:57interested in here depending on who they

26:59announce will be their starter.

27:02>> Yeah, Tokyo Brandon. This is it's really

27:04interesting because the Padres's have

27:06played such good ball of late, nine of

27:0810. They've won five in a row. They went

27:10from needing to it looking like they

27:12were going to have to battle off like

27:14five or know five different teams to

27:17close down the wildard spot to to

27:19jumping the Phillies. They are actually

27:21in the two spot in the NL wild card race

27:24now by a game. Um they they they lead

27:27the Phillies by a game. So, you know,

27:31you on one hand I'm like, do they exhale

27:33this final week a little bit because

27:35they they feel like they've done enough?

27:37Cuz like Brian said, they've been in big

27:38game after big game the past two weeks.

27:41But like the Padres's get up for the

27:42Dodgers. So, I'm having a hard time

27:45figuring out what Padres's team shows up

27:48here, but the Padres's team that we've

27:50seen the past couple weeks has been

27:52really, really good. So, very intriguing

27:54matchup tonight. Padres's Dodgers. What

27:56do you have for us?

27:57So, I'm going to make this my parlay

27:59leg. Um,

28:02the nobody's hitting better than the

28:04Padres's right now. They're number one

28:06in MLB in current form, hands down. And

28:11yeah, I mean, the Dodgers have a good

28:13lineup, but they're missing their two

28:14best hitters. I mean, Pah and Otani are

28:18not in this lineup. I think the Padres's

28:20have the hitting advantage here. Uh,

28:23granted the Dodgers are hitting number

28:25three in current form in MLB. So, we got

28:27the number one and number three teams uh

28:30right now. Uh, I like King. He's not a,

28:34you know, superstar stud or anything,

28:36but he handles these Dodgers really well

28:39in his career. I think he can do that

28:42today. Um, and I think the Padres's plus

28:46the half run in the first five is is a

28:48good play here. and you can get it for

28:50anywhere between minus125 and minus1

28:52130. I think that's a good I think

28:54that's a good bet and that's going to be

28:56my parlay. The Dodgers might win the

28:58game, but I don't think they're going to

29:00I don't think they're going to be

29:01winning after five innings. Let's put it

29:03that way. I think King handles these

29:05Dodgers a little too well. Another play

29:07I was thinking about was the Dodgers

29:09team total under two and a half in the

29:10first five, but that's minus 160. And

29:12also the Dodgers are number three in MLB

29:15in hitting even without Otani. So, I I

29:17like the Padres's to keep this even in

29:19the first five innings.

29:22>> TB, I I think that's a good I I I I

29:24think that's a good look. You know, more

29:26I think about it, I think Brian is going

29:28to be right. I think you're probably

29:29going to see Roblesi out there at at

29:31some point in the first five innings. I

29:34don't know if the Dodgers will use an

29:35opener. This might this week at times

29:37you might this might be a try out for

29:40who's going to make like the long relief

29:42spot on the playoff roster. I'll throw

29:44this out there as I throw it back to

29:46Brian to get a price on that on that

29:47first five. Listen, the Oklahoma City

29:50Comets are playing out in Vegas the next

29:52two days in in the potentially next

29:54three days in the AAA playoffs. I I know

29:58for a fact the Dodgers left a couple of

30:01guy like again I don't I don't think you

30:03know organization does it matter who

30:05wins in AAA? Probably not. But like I do

30:08think they are leaving a couple of

30:10starters down there that potentially

30:12could have like appeared in this game to

30:14start those games because again it's

30:17like more like you know you're looking

30:18at the Dodgers organizational depth type

30:20deal. It's like they want to be fair to

30:23Oklahoma City. They had a great second

30:24half. They're playing in the playoffs. I

30:27think you know I I I think land I I

30:29don't know if it's Landon Knack that's

30:30still down there. Maybe Gavin Stone has

30:32been down there. Like theoretically,

30:34these are guys that the Dodgers could

30:35have maybe put in this spot if they

30:38wanted to. I think they are going to

30:41anything I'm reading, they're going to

30:44keep this Oklahoma City to team together

30:46for like the next three days just to,

30:48you know, to give them a chance to to

30:51play in the playoffs and and they need

30:52starting pitching for three days. So, I

30:55think that might have been like let's

30:57say they didn't play today. You might

30:58have seen someone called up to to fill

31:01because again again the teams get two

31:03extra roster spots. I think you're going

31:05to see the Dodgers say you know what yes

31:07they're seating all that stuff but like

31:10we also want to give

31:11>> the the team that had a great second

31:13half a chance. And so yeah, you can make

31:15a start down there. What does that mean

31:17for this game? And what does that mean

31:19for Tokyo Brandon's bet? Well, if you're

31:21betting first five, let's say Robleski's

31:24three innings, the next guy up might be

31:26the most depth guy in the bullpen

31:28because if you're the Dodgers, you're

31:30probably not going to like cook through

31:31high leverage guys until you know if

31:34you're in the game or not. You know, you

31:35probably push them off till later in the

31:37week. I think this week for the Dodgers

31:39is more about just getting to the finish

31:42line, setting up the team for the

31:43postseason. Um, so TB, I I think you

31:46would potentially end up with Michael

31:49King against either Roleski or like one

31:51of the Dodgers like weaker relievers. I

31:54can get down with that. So I I think I'm

31:56with you there. That first five look

31:57makes a lot of sense. Brian, what's he

31:58looking at for a price?

32:00>> Yeah, having yesterday off I think um

32:03helps the Dodgers in that regard because

32:05they they had some bullpen guys they had

32:07used pretty pretty much before that. But

32:09yeah, he's looking at plus 100 um in in

32:13the first half of that game. And uh

32:16yeah, it's it's it's tough to make a

32:17definitive decision without knowing what

32:20you're going to do. But uh yeah, you get

32:22them plus 100 in the first five at San

32:24Diego

32:24>> with the half run. Really?

32:26>> Oh, with the half run. Hold on.

32:27>> With the half run.

32:28>> I thought I thought it's minus 125.US

32:32were doing that. Hold on just a second.

32:35>> Uh

32:35>> 25, I think.

32:37>> Yeah, let me look. Um, San Diego is uh

32:41Oh, the first half. I'm sorry, forgot to

32:43hit that part. Uh, San Diego's about a

32:47140 favorite plus the half a run.

32:50>> Yeah, I was going to say the Padres's

32:51have definitely started to take some

32:53money a little bit. Um,

32:56>> so yeah, that makes

32:57>> I had a feeling was going to have moved

32:59a little bit, but yeah, that's

33:01>> I need the half run.

33:04>> No, I I would agree, TB. I like I like

33:07that a lot more. just needing to get to

33:08the finish line of of five innings tied

33:11or in the lead.

33:12>> Yeah.

33:13>> But yeah, I think if you listen if if

33:16you got on it early, I mean, if you're

33:18holding plus a half minus 125, it's a

33:20great bet at minus 140 like we can put

33:23it in the parlay. Um it just may not

33:24have as much value as a straight bet,

33:26but it's certainly uh I think worth a

33:28look.

33:29>> Yeah, if they're if they're giving you

33:30plus 100 with no runs, 125 is too cheap.

33:34So yeah, 14.

33:36>> No, I'm saying it was an hour and a half

33:37ago that 125 was probably out there,

33:40>> right?

33:40>> It was actually right before the show.

33:42It was minus 125 on the drop down that

33:45we used. So

33:46>> it's gone though.

33:47>> Yeah, board is is moving. It like

33:50Listen, a lot of stuff

33:51>> lot of stuff moves in this hour. I think

33:53I think the 9:00 a.m. Eastern hour um is

33:56what is like the first limit raise from

33:58uh like overnight limit goes up.

34:02typically when every time limits raise

34:04is typically when you're going to start

34:05to see um some activity. So you get

34:07activity. Brian, I'll come to you

34:08because again I'm I'm punching Yankees

34:10game one uh Yankees money line for game

34:12one and um as we're going on the show,

34:15every book moved like 10 cents very very

34:17quickly. So yeah, go ahead.

34:20>> Yeah, we've mentioned it in the past. Um

34:22we've got a deal for anybody who wants

34:24to join us on this OSLogic site. seven

34:26free days. And with football going on

34:28now, it's it's extremely important with

34:30all the line moves. So, all you need to

34:32do is go to wt.buzzleard

34:36ln a r d o l for oddslogic and get in

34:40and get free seven days since we're

34:42talking about it and how important it is

34:44right now. And with football, you know,

34:45we we see these lines open up and you

34:47know, they're gone in no time. So, it's

34:50very important if you're betting for a

34:52living, if you're betting for profit, um

34:55you want to be able to know what the

34:57what the current lines are. And if you

34:58see it moving, hey, jump in and get your

35:00bet before it moves everywhere. And

35:02that's what makes it so important to get

35:05uh a really good line service. and the

35:08the things that uh are coming up for for

35:11us uh during the football season and

35:13with hockey around the corner. We're

35:15we're uh seven days away from the hockey

35:17show, by the way, and I'll be co-hosting

35:18with uh with Car Carmine this year. So,

35:22uh yeah, a lot of things going on right

35:23now. All the sports coming in. It's a

35:26no-brainer. Get that seven free days. If

35:27you like it, get locked in and uh you'll

35:31be able to pay less money when all those

35:33new improvements come around.

35:36Yeah, Slick Vic says thinks FanDuel's

35:38watching the show. He said they they

35:40changed it real quick. They must be

35:42watching. Yeah, maybe. Hopefully. That's

35:45>> FanDuel. Yes, I've met him before.

35:47>> That would be a uh that that would be a

35:49compliment right there. Uh listen, this

35:52is a comp if if Brian Hat says we did a

35:54good Dodgers breakdown. I know that's a

35:56compliment. I know he's a uh big Dodgers

35:58fan, very tuned in. So, uh appreciate

36:01you guys. Um

36:04Steam the Friars line. Yeah, Big Daddy

36:06Cornbed. That's uh maybe we did. Maybe

36:08we're moving that toward the Padres's.

36:10You never know. Um let's move to a

36:12different game. Going back to the chat.

36:15Okay, this one I guess is uh this one's

36:18worthwhile. Uh seems like the folks want

36:20to talk some Mariners Astros. So, you

36:23know, I got to be honest, this is the

36:26for for since we moved to the seven play

36:30seven team per league uh playoff format

36:33with the extra wild card team, I think

36:36this is the most uneventful final week

36:38that we've had like where

36:41like usually now ever since they put the

36:44third wild card team and typically this

36:45stuff's going down to the final day, but

36:48man like you just have not had teams

36:50this year you you've had like every one

36:52of these teams has played their way like

36:55out of the race. It's It's kind of

36:56crazy. Now, the American League

36:57obviously still has um some some

37:02teams in the mix right there. Uh the

37:04Astros are probably the team that has

37:09See, now they interestingly enough, they

37:11have a better chance to win their

37:12division than they do the play the wild

37:14card. Uh they're three behind the White

37:16Socks in the wild card. However, they're

37:18still very close to the Rangers in the

37:20division. So, a lot to play for here. I

37:23thought the Mariners would have had more

37:24to play for coming into the final week

37:26with how easy their schedule was in

37:27September, but they just haven't played

37:29good baseball. And um Tokyo Brandon,

37:32I'll let you kick this one off. Got to

37:34be honest, I I was surprised to see the

37:37Mariners as big of a favorite as they

37:38were coming into this game knowing that

37:41their season's kind of done, just

37:44knowing how poorly they've played in

37:45September. But the books, man, have just

37:48they have just priced this Mariners team

37:50up all year. And it's almost like

37:51they're just gonna they're going to beat

37:53it right into the ground, right to the

37:55going right to the grave with that. Um

37:58Mariners once again coming at home once

38:00again. You have to lay a premium to back

38:03them. Do you think it's warranted?

38:05Mariners Astros to you Tokyo Brand.

38:08>> So last promo for the show. Double play

38:11is two of us, three for three days, all

38:13baseball, all access. And the triple

38:15play is six days for the price of three

38:18if you pick one of us. Go to

38:20wagertalk.com. It's on our capper page.

38:23Uh and that both of those offers expire

38:26September 24th, 2 days from now. So, uh

38:30grab those plays. Uh all three of us are

38:34winning and all three of us are very

38:36good baseball cappers. So, uh, pretty

38:39much can't go wrong. Uh, let's get to

38:42this game. I think the seven here is

38:44kind of ridiculous. Um, we have two

38:47teams that I mean, their bullpens are

38:50not playing well right now. I got both

38:52bullpens 16 or right around 16 18 range,

38:57so lower than mediocre. Um, Seattle's

39:01bats are waking up a little bit. Uh,

39:03Houston's are not really waking up. But,

39:07uh, I think I I don't seven. Seven is

39:10the kind of number you see when you got

39:12Max Freed going against Rasmusen, right?

39:15That's not what we have here. So, I just

39:18seven seems way too low to me in this

39:19one. I like Javier's numbers against

39:22Seattle, but those numbers could have

39:24been compiled a long time ago. Javier's

39:27having a terrible season. Uh, I just

39:30don't think this seven is justified. Um,

39:33so I think an over is probably the play

39:35in this one. I'm not sure if I'll get to

39:37it, but if I were to, that's what I

39:39would do.

39:41I It's really interesting to The Astros

39:44are such an interesting case right now

39:45because like

39:47that I mean they've played bad lately.

39:49So I guess I guess I can see where the

39:52Mariner love would come from being at

39:55home here. Logan Gilbert. I would much

39:57rather have Logan Gilbert than Christian

39:58Javier just in a you in general. And the

40:01Astros, like they really have played

40:03poorly, three and seven their last 10

40:05games. Uh Brian, this has kind of been

40:07going on since early August. So the

40:09Astros had such a great July. They came

40:11into August red-hot. And um the the the

40:14the burnout, the fizzle out for them has

40:17been going on for for like about a month

40:20now. And it actually it's it's a crazy

40:22to think that with how poor the Rangers

40:24and the Mariners have both been, but it

40:26very well may cost them a spot in the

40:29playoffs. whereas go back to to maybe

40:32you know going into August I think I

40:33came on here and said the Astros are

40:35actually sort of playing their way into

40:36being one of the elite teams in the

40:38American League and that just simply has

40:39not been the case. So Mariners Astros

40:42this one's kind of a brain this is

40:44jumbling my brain here. Uh but do you

40:47have anything Astros Mariners?

40:49>> Yeah we're looking at Gilbert and

40:50Javier. Gilbert's about a 140 favorite

40:52here. We're either looking at the seven

40:55over 25 or looking at seven and a half

40:58under 25. So, seven and a quarter is the

41:01way I call it. Um, Javier has not

41:04pitched well on the season, but if you

41:06take a look at his last three starts, he

41:07has been pretty good. He had a couple

41:0860s in that regard. I believe he had a

41:1044 or something last time out, but he's

41:12only 42 on the season. He struggled a

41:14lot earlier, but he's pitching a lot

41:16better now. Um, and you're looking at a

41:19Houston bullpen that does have uh their

41:21closer who uh has not pitched in a

41:24while. Uh, they haven't had Josh her

41:26hasn't pitched since Thursday. Uh, Brian

41:29Breu really struggled early in the

41:30season and he did blow the save on

41:32Saturday, but still um he's back to

41:35about where they expected. He's up to

41:37number 38 in the power rank over at Fan

41:40Graphs. That's about what I had him at

41:42before the season. So, as bad as he was

41:44the beginning of the season, he's been

41:45much better as of late. But, uh, a lot

41:48of these guys have had the last two days

41:49off. Their top four, uh, relievers have

41:51all had last two days off. Blue Ball and

41:54Susa as well. So, I think we're going to

41:56get a pretty good effort out of the

41:58pitching staff here for Houston, even if

42:01they have to go a little bit earlier to

42:03get Javier out of there. Um, Seattle, as

42:07we've been pointing out, very

42:09disappointing season all season, all all

42:12year long. The Mariners just never got

42:14on that run. You expected it all season

42:16long. Never happened. They're going with

42:18Logan Gilbert. He's the number 18th

42:20pitcher on the season. In fact, if you

42:21take a look at their top three starters,

42:24uh, Gilbert 18, Kirby 54. A little bit

42:27disappointing in that regard, but Woo

42:2922. You know, they're all been good.

42:31They just haven't been great. Bryce

42:33Miller 102 and Kate Anderson's really

42:36coming around now at 149. It's a shame

42:39that Seattle isn't going to make the

42:40playoffs because they probably would

42:42have one of the strongest uh rotations

42:45in the playoffs, but um that's that's

42:48the way it is. You got to be able to hit

42:49and they haven't hit. Uh Munoz um

42:54has been dealing with some problems,

42:55health problems lately. This week they

42:57had to pull him out uh earlier. last

43:00time he was out there, he got the hold,

43:01but um they pulled him out of the game

43:03and uh they also had yesterday off, so

43:05most of their bullpen's in pretty good

43:06shape. So, um looking at this one, I I

43:11obviously prefer Gilbert at home here,

43:12but I can't lay that number. It it's

43:14it's gotten up. I I expected it to be in

43:16the 130 range, and now we're seeing in

43:18the 140s. Uh if I'm playing, I'm taking

43:21Houston, but I'm not doing it with a lot

43:23of confidence.

43:25Yeah, listen, the Mariners, I mean,

43:26granted they would need a lot of help,

43:28but they, you know, technically with a

43:32win tonight would not be eliminated.

43:34Their elimination number is two. Uh, so

43:36I do I I don't think you're going to not

43:38get an effort from the Mariners. I think

43:39for for me, like I'd love to take

43:41Gilbert at home. I think it's probably

43:43the right side in this game, but minus

43:46130 - 135. Like, bro, I

43:48>> I I'd be all over the Mariners here at

43:50like minus 110 if the books like G like

43:53I was kind of hoping they'd give you the

43:55discount of like the Astros needing this

43:58game versus the Mariners kind of being

44:00out of it. I I was hoping that would be

44:01like overly priced into the number so I

44:04could take the Mariners. But even it's

44:06even taken some money. The Astros have

44:08even taken some money in the last hour

44:09and still putting you in that minus 130

44:12to - 135 range. So that is ultimately

44:15what likely keeps me off. Though I do

44:17lean toward the Mariners just having the

44:20better setup to win this game at home.

44:24Okay, let's move it along a couple more.

44:27So, we got the parlay locked in. Uh but

44:29we've got a couple more games to talk

44:31about. Uh so Brian, I'm coming back to

44:33you here. Uh because the the people in

44:35the chat are asking for your Cleveland

44:38Guardians. They're taking on the Red

44:40Sox. The Guardians definitely still the

44:43big- time playoff implications here

44:44still. Uh even though the Guardians have

44:46played their way into a really good spot

44:49to be in the playoffs, still work to do

44:51for them to wrap up the AL Central,

44:53which we know means home games, which is

44:55obviously very important. So they hit

44:57the road here. It's Parker Messi, Payton

44:59to probably one of the better games of

45:00the night. Red Sox Guardians at Fenway

45:03Park. Uh, how are you seeing this very

45:05solid pitching match up at Fenway?

45:07>> Yeah, and as I mentioned earlier, the

45:09winds blowing in, too. So, because

45:10that's the first thing I noticing, but

45:12how often do you see a six and a half in

45:13Fenway Park? Uh, yes, Messi and Totally

45:16are very good pitchers. They're both

45:17left-handers. Uh, that gives them an

45:19extra edge here. Uh, we're looking at

45:20tolli and the Red Sox about a 128

45:24favorite here. Total six and a half to

45:25the over minus 120 for the most part.

45:28couple of sevens out there um as well uh

45:31with a little bit of juice to the under.

45:35But um yeah, I think it's I think it's

45:38priced correctly. Um Messi has been

45:40fantastic on the road all season long.

45:42He has been great. Um it's a shame he

45:46probably won't win rookie of the year

45:47because of the Detroit shortstop, but

45:49hey, he's he's been the rookie pitcher

45:51of the year for the American League. No

45:53doubt about that. Um,

45:56Cleveland has set themselves up now.

45:58Obviously,

45:59we talked about the White Socks. I I

46:01think Cleveland with the sit situation

46:03that they've got going on here, uh,

46:06they're currently a game ahead of the

46:08White Sox, but the White Sox have the

46:09tiebreaker and Houston's the only other

46:12team in it and uh, that they really need

46:16to worry about. And I, like I just said,

46:17I don't think Houston's going to get

46:19there. So, I think Cleveland will make

46:20the playoffs. it's more more important

46:22to win the division because you get that

46:25um the buy in in the in the first round.

46:28So that is what the White Socks and the

46:30Guarders are going to go for. Um and I

46:32think both of them end up making the

46:34playoffs. But the Guardians now have

46:37they gone seven to three the last 10 and

46:39now they're finally with a positive run

46:41differential on the season of plus two.

46:44Uh Kas done the same thing as they did

46:46last year. Uh it amazes to me how they

46:49continue to be able to win these games

46:50because at the end of the season they're

46:52always like they come off as like an

46:54average team but they find ways to win.

46:56Take a look at the bullpen. Uh over the

46:59last week they've used Kate Smith three

47:01times and he got saves all three games.

47:04Hunter Gatis came in three times was

47:06holds. So they've used their top two

47:08relievers a lot. So, the rest of the

47:10bullpen is in really good shape here if

47:13they decide that they're going to limit

47:16Messi. Take them out at maybe after five

47:18innings. Um, they've got guys that

47:21haven't pitched in a while. So, I I

47:23didn't think going into this I'd have

47:25any interest in the under, but I kind of

47:27do. Let's take a look at what the first

47:29five is here. Uh, the first half for

47:32this total here, we're looking at three

47:33and a half under

47:36under 20 28 something like that. That

47:39would that's not bad. Uh I could see

47:42these pitchers holding the opposition

47:44with the wind blowing in here to three

47:45runs or less in the first five. That's

47:47probably the way I would look at it. Um

47:49but uh I think it's going to be a really

47:51good pitch ball game here. They've got a

47:53lot of guys that are available and uh

47:56Boston's clinched their playoff spot, so

47:57it doesn't mean as much for Boston.

47:59They're pretty much stuck where they're

48:00at. But uh they they know that they're

48:03might have to be playing Cleveland in

48:04the playoffs. So hey, they're they're

48:06going to give them a good effort here.

48:08All right, TB, get back in here. Red Sox

48:11Guardians, how do you see this one?

48:13>> Yeah. Uh, I don't see why I think this

48:17price is way off. I think Cleveland's

48:19the better team. Uh, I understand.

48:21They're three wins apart and Boston

48:24basically backed their way into the

48:25playoffs. They didn't really earn it.

48:28Uh, Messix's a better pitcher. Cleveland

48:30has the better bullpen. And Cleveland's

48:33hitting better. I got Cleveland ranked

48:35fourth in hitting, fifth in bullpen, and

48:37sixth in starting pitching. That's I

48:39mean, that's a juggernaut kind of

48:41number. I I know they're not playing

48:43like world beater juggernauts or

48:44anything like that, but they're the much

48:46better team here. If you can get plus

48:47money with them, I think I think the

48:50reason Boston's favored is probably

48:51because they're at home. But they're 38

48:54and 37 at home. Cleveland is 40 and 35

48:57on the road, so the road doesn't really

48:58make much difference in my opinion. Uh,

49:01I'll back Massie for plus 115 or

49:04whatever it is. I think that's a great

49:05price. Better bullpen, better bats,

49:08better starter. Take Cleveland.

49:14>> I'm just uh going to get Yeah, this I

49:16I'm going to move on to a different game

49:18just because I want to get another one

49:19in here. Uh Brian, go ahead if you have

49:21something.

49:21>> Yeah, let me just counteract. They're

49:22they're not the better team. The uh take

49:24a look at the expected one loss on the

49:26record. Cleveland's 78 and 78. Boston's

49:2987 and 69. Uh Boston against teams with

49:32a 500 record are 35 and 30. Cleveland is

49:3623 and 35. Keep in mind TB that um

49:40Boston had to play their division. And

49:44it's while it's not as not like it used

49:46to be where you played your division so

49:48many more times,

49:50>> Cleveland's had got the advantage of

49:52playing in one of the two worst

49:53divisions in baseball whereas the

49:55Yankees play in the best division or the

49:56Red Sox playing the best division. So, I

49:59appreciate your uh your excitement for

50:01my Cleveland team, but uh and they may

50:04win this game. No doubt about it. But I

50:05I still think if if you if Cleveland was

50:08going to play Boston in the next series,

50:10uh who would be favored? Boston would be

50:12favored in

50:13>> I don't care who'd be favored, Cleveland

50:15would win the series, though. If Crochet

50:17is not back, Cleveland's a better team

50:19>> in my opinion.

50:20>> Well, we'll have

50:22I have to push back on I got to push

50:24back on that a little bit.

50:26I think it's I think it's like a pretty

50:28wide margin between the Red Sox and

50:30Guardians. Like the for me like the Red

50:32Sox are far better. I'm not Now listen,

50:34it's baseball. So like the Red Sox

50:36playing the Guardians in a playoff

50:38series like you get a good couple good

50:39outings. Like they're not they're not

50:41like

50:42>> it's not like the Red Sox are so much

50:44better that the Guardians wouldn't

50:45compete with them. But like Brian said,

50:47like part of part of the whole sort of

50:49case I was trying to make for the Blue

50:51Jays, which didn't work out. But like

50:54playing the AL East is a big difference

50:56than if you had an entire season of

50:58games against the AL West where you're

51:01playing the A's all these times, the

51:03Angels all these times, and and again,

51:05some of that's going on in the AL

51:06Central. Think about how many more games

51:08you have against the Royals, against the

51:10Twins, against the Tigers, all below

51:12average baseball team. So I'm with you,

51:14Brian. I do think the Red Sox are I have

51:17them power rated, you know, definitely

51:19higher than the Guardians,

51:21>> but like in this matchup, like

51:24>> in this matchup, I could see it is this

51:26is kind of a coin flip to me. I I didn't

51:29see enough value either way. I lean Red

51:31Sox at Fenway. I'm still a little out on

51:34the Guardians being like an actual

51:36contender. I The Guardians are a team I

51:39I have a feeling I'm going to be looking

51:40to play against uh in the postseason.

51:42Whether they win the AL Central or not,

51:44we'll see. But I they're they're just

51:47fortunate comes to mind when I see this

51:50team being where they are. Um but Messi

51:54is is a stud. I like

51:56>> I think they're a well put together team

51:57and division games are only 32% of your

51:59schedule. So just saying

52:02>> again we can we can

52:03>> I I know you want to talk about another

52:05game, but I if these two teams play in

52:07the playoffs, who's favored? You think

52:12>> Cleveland will win though the bullpen

52:14>> and their starting rotation is better.

52:16So

52:20>> I I I think the Guardians take shout out

52:22to what the Guardians though getting

52:24getting what they do out of that lineup

52:27especially with Jose Ramirez having a

52:28down year like that should not in my I

52:31look at that team like there's no way

52:33that that team should be playing playoff

52:34baseball and and they are. Yeah. Crazy

52:37Steve Rochio is clutch. The ball must

52:40have a grass magnet on it. The ma Yeah,

52:43it just finds grass somehow. Um the game

52:46that comes to mind is when the White

52:48Socks had a an infielder playing out of

52:50position last week to lose a game to the

52:52Guardians. But yeah, um hey, shout out

52:54to the shout out to the Guardians.

52:56>> All right, let's go. Let's get one more

52:57in here. We can squeak one more in at

52:59the gun. Um, okay. Uh, the other one

53:01that Alex Ran wanted earlier that we,

53:04uh, we passed on, Rangers Mets. Of

53:06course, I'll go to this one for Alex.

53:08I'll go to this one because we do have

53:10some playoff implications here for the

53:13Rangers who are still trying to hold off

53:15a lead in the AL West. They have a game

53:17lead on the Astros and they have a home

53:20game tonight um, against the Mets with

53:23our favorite Jackal and Hyde starter on

53:25the mound in Mackenzie Gore. So, Brian

53:27Leonard, start us off. Mets Rangers. Uh,

53:30is this as easy as it, you know, maybe

53:33the Rangers think it is or what do you

53:35think's going on Mets Rangers here?

53:37>> Well, if you like the R, you like the

53:39Mets, um, and you're have a public book,

53:42let's just put it that way, you better

53:44grab it now because the lines are going

53:46down in all the short books. So, the

53:48short books like the Mets and I think

53:51that's the way to look at it. I don't

53:52trust Gore. Um, Manet has been solid, no

53:56doubt about it. He's a crafty lefty. Um

54:00I don't think Texas deserves the

54:01playoffs. So yeah, if I'm if I'm playing

54:03it, I might take the Mets here. You can

54:05get him at plus Yeah. plus4

54:09some places. Um yeah, not not a whole

54:13big of an opinion on this one.

54:15>> TV Rangers Mets. Do you have anything in

54:17this game?

54:19>> Yeah, Gore Gore is is Jacqueline Hyde

54:22for sure. His home and away splits are

54:26worlds apart, almost three full runs

54:28apart. And he's walking a lot of guys.

54:31His walk rate is 97. He's walking 97% of

54:35the guys he's striking out. He's giving

54:37a lot of free passes, but I still have

54:39him ranked higher than Maniah. But

54:42that's that's the thing. Uh do you get

54:45home gore or do you get away? Um both

54:48teams are hitting right about 11 out of

54:5130. They're pretty equal. Both bullpens

54:54pretty equal in current form. So, the

54:56only difference I see between these two

54:58teams is starting pitcher. Um, if we get

55:02good gore, I think Texas has a shot at

55:04this. But, if we get bad gore, we don't.

55:06So, it basically depends on that. And I

55:08don't want to put my money on uh such a

55:11uh such an unsure X factor. So, I'll lay

55:15off. But, if if Gore is on, I think

55:17Texas wins the game. That's a big if.

55:21No, I'm with you there. Listen, when

55:23when Mcken because when Mackenzie Gore

55:25is on, he looks like the ace that every

55:27that we we all thought he was going to

55:29be. Um, apparently that every everyone

55:32thought he was going to be. I mean, this

55:33guy has been involved in in massive

55:36trades multiple times in his career. Um,

55:38the Nationals traded for him thinking

55:41that he was he was going to be their

55:43ace. The Rangers turned around and

55:45traded for him thinking he was going to

55:47be their ace. Clearly, there's like

55:50thought around the league that he is a

55:52high-end left-handed arm and and it it's

55:55been super frustrating to watch him over

55:57the years because he will have a start

56:00uh now at this point, you kind of got to

56:01go back to about a month um where he'll

56:04have a start where he just comes out for

56:05six innings and it's virtually unhitable

56:08and then he'll he'll go on these runs

56:10and I think it's for him it's streaky.

56:13So, if you want to talk about trying to

56:14figure out how to bet Mackenzie Gore,

56:17like this, this is not the best spot

56:19because he he hasn't done anything

56:21recently to suggest that you're getting

56:24the really good Mackenzie Gore. Now, he

56:26might come out in the playoffs and have

56:28and and throw three games where he

56:30throws six, seven scoreless because he's

56:33just super streaky. There was runs

56:35earlier this year, July into August,

56:37where he was having really good start

56:38after really good start. But so far, the

56:40last three starts, five runs over three,

56:44four runs over four. Last time out,

56:46three runs over four innings, he can't

56:48even get through the fifth inning.

56:49That's not ace caliber stuff. Uh, three

56:52walks or more in five straight starts is

56:55the most concerning thing for me with

56:57him. when the walks start to go up, the

56:59strikeouts start to go down, you're just

57:01not getting where they like to price him

57:04in the market. And I think that's the

57:06problem here. Uh you just just not

57:08trustworthy enough to justify where the

57:11Rangers are priced here. Tokyo Brandon

57:13said it best. What do you want to bet on

57:15which Gore shows up here? And just off

57:18of like the way he pitches, he's in one

57:21of the bad streaks, so I'm not going to

57:22bet on him in one of the bad in one of

57:24the quoteunquote bad runs. Brian, go

57:25ahead. Yeah, the only good starts he's

57:27had in the last two months have been

57:29against the bad worst team hitting teams

57:31in baseball. The Athletics, the Angels,

57:34uh the Angels twice actually, San

57:36Francisco. Yeah. Anytime he plays any

57:38team with an offense, he's struggled. I

57:40want no part of him. He's got a 50 game

57:42score on the season, but as you

57:43mentioned, the last three outs outings,

57:4538, 37, 21, e even uh even his good

57:50outing against the Athletics at home, he

57:52only had a 54. So, yeah, I don't want I

57:53don't want any part of him.

57:57All right, we have reached the end of

57:59the show. Listen, I have a 5% play

58:01today. It is not part of $5 Tuesday, but

58:04coupon code Adam10 will get you $10 off

58:07of that play. That should be live right

58:10now. Um, so if you're looking for a

58:125enter today, there's one in Major

58:14League Baseball that I love. Coupon code

58:15Adam10 takes $10 off. Um, as Tokyo

58:20Brandon said earlier, the double play

58:22package, you've got three more days to

58:24take advantage of the double play. The

58:26final day of the the MLB double play uh

58:29is Thursday. So, you've got three more

58:31shots at getting yourself two of us for

58:34a three-day period. And there's also

58:36other great specials on the site. Um,

58:40real quick, any anyone got anything else

58:42to promote before we we get out of here?

58:45I'm considering a 5% play in Asian

58:48baseball tomorrow. I'm just looking over

58:49the numbers right now. They just came

58:51out. I might put a 5% out in Asian

58:54baseball. And I have $5 plays out in MLB

58:58today. So,

59:00>> love to hear it.

59:01>> Brian, how about you in football and

59:02hockey? You got anything big going on?

59:04>> Yeah, I've uh number two in or in

59:08combined football so far this season. I

59:10didn't even do preseason. So, that tells

59:11you how we got off to a really nice

59:13start. number one the last 13 plus

59:15months overall. Uh get those packages

59:18out right now. I will be putting up at

59:19least one five percent or excuse me one

59:22one five dollar play up on the site in

59:25the next hour or so. So uh wanted to get

59:27more lineups. We got we got a lot of

59:29questions involved in as as the week

59:31goes on to the end of the season who's

59:34going to play who's not. So I don't want

59:35to put up anything early without knowing

59:37lineups.

59:40>> Absolutely. We uh so I I did put one out

59:42early. Um, well, it's the early game.

59:45Uh, so I I will kick off the recap of

59:48the parlay. I did give out a 4% play for

59:50free on the show. Part of the part of

59:52my, you know, I I know I'm I'm charging

59:55you free, you know, max price. Well,

59:56coupon code Adam10 takes $10 off for 5%

1:00:00around $5 Tuesday. So, I felt like the

1:00:01least I could do is give another play

1:00:04that I would have put up for five bucks

1:00:05out for free. That is going to be

1:00:07Yankees game one of the double header

1:00:09and that will kick off our three-teamer

1:00:12as well. Also, Yankees game one of the

1:00:13double header is a 4% play for me. It is

1:00:16also my leg of the parlay. Tokyo Brandon

1:00:18is going with Padres's plus a half a run

1:00:20in the first five minus 140. And Brian

1:00:23is going to go White Socks Royals over

1:00:26seven and a half for the full game minus

1:00:28120. Those are our three legs of the

1:00:30parlay. Our three best bets for the

1:00:32show. And again, that Yankees game one

1:00:34money line for me is a 4% client play.

1:00:38We've reached the end of the show. We

1:00:40very much appreciate you guys tuning in.

1:00:42Uh especially in September. There's

1:00:43other sports going on, but you're still

1:00:45showing up to talk baseball with us. We

1:00:47absolutely love that. And the three of

1:00:48us will be back tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. to

1:00:51uh uh to to do it again uh as we close

1:00:54out the final week of the regular

1:00:55season. See you guys then. Have a great

1:00:57day, everybody. And don't forget $5

1:00:59Tuesday.