Full transcript
0:03Okay, welcome in. It is time for our
0:04final total bases of the regular season.
0:07Uh the regular season ends tomorrow, so
0:10we'll see you on Tuesday when the
0:12playoffs start, but we've got one more
0:14show. Uh one more pretty full slate to
0:17break down. Of course, we talked about
0:18it yesterday. The Cubs and the Red Sox
0:20played a double header. The Yankees and
0:22the Orioles played a double header. So,
0:24it's a 13 game abbreviated slate to work
0:27around some weather. Uh 0 and2 for me
0:30last night. Kind of how it goes
0:31sometimes. I had this great night on
0:33Thursday. Swept the board, went 3-0.
0:36Yesterday, ended up giving one back in
0:38college football and I gave one back
0:40with the Cubs. Brian Leonard, I come out
0:42three nothing lead early. I'm feeling
0:44great in game one of the double header
0:46and they just kind of went to sleep for
0:48like the next 16 innings of baseball.
0:51Nothing offensively from them in a in a
0:54spot where they kind of needed it more,
0:56but it didn't matter. I feel like that's
0:58kind of the theme going into today. So,
1:00uh, how how did Friday go for you? Did
1:03you find your way on any winners?
1:05>> Yeah, it's it's starting to remind me
1:07of, uh, the must-win situations in the
1:10NFL at the end of the season. Well, if
1:12you must win, chances are you're not
1:13that great. Uh, I used Texas yesterday
1:16on the show. Took I believe they took a
1:18two nothing lead and I was feeling
1:19pretty good. It was early and then the
1:21next time I looked up, uh, they were
1:23getting crushed. I did have one playing
1:25baseball yesterday. They ended up going
1:27under in the Cleveland Kansas City game
1:30in the first five. It was three and a
1:31half. I think they had 11 runs. By the
1:34time the uh game started because they
1:36had the rain delay, I didn't even know
1:38the game started already. And uh he
1:41says, "Hey, the we call them the tribe."
1:43They go, "So the Tribe's up three to one
1:45already." I go, "Uh, that's not good
1:47because I got the under." And so that
1:50was my only baseball play. I lost that.
1:52Um, but we did have football yesterday
1:55and I swept football. I'm on a 10-1
1:57football run now. Number one since the
2:01the football season started overall NFL
2:04and college. Got five plays up today,
2:06two plays up in baseball. But yeah, it
2:09sucks when I do a baseball play baseball
2:11show and I can't win a baseball game. So
2:14hopefully I get you a winner today.
2:16>> Tokyo Brandon, how was your Friday? Did
2:18you find your way on any winners? Uh, I
2:21went two and three and then, uh, this
2:24morning I won NC in the KBO for 4%. So,
2:27I'm kind of treading water the last two
2:29days, but I'm still plus 115 units in on
2:33the year, number two at wager talk, so
2:35can't really complain too much. Astros
2:39just ticked me off yesterday. They just
2:41looked like garbage. That that
2:43contributed to my two and three day.
2:46>> Yeah, listen, that is that is really the
2:48theme of today's show. Uh we have pretty
2:51much anyone that's in the mix right now
2:53that still has quote unquote work to do
2:56uh to get into the playoffs or to hold
2:57off a spot in the lower part of the wild
3:00card has not looked good with the
3:02exception of course I I threw on the
3:04Arizona Diamondbacks hat because it's
3:06like we're all Diamondbacks fans now.
3:08You know, unless you live in Unless you
3:10live in uh Delo or Philadelphia, you're
3:12probably rooting for the Diamondbacks at
3:14this point uh to make it interesting and
3:16to steal that final wildcard spot. We'll
3:18get to them at some point on the show,
3:20but first we're going to talk about the
3:21Fox game tonight, the game the entire
3:24country is going to see. And that is
3:26going to be the Philadelphia Phillies
3:27who like Brian in inexplicably are have
3:30played their way into a spot where they
3:33have work to do in the final two games
3:35of the regular season. I again I said
3:37this yesterday, go back a month ago.
3:40That's crazy to think that the Phillies
3:44like need to win games on the final two
3:46days of the regular season to secure a
3:49playoff birth. But here we are last
3:51night. I again I said this on the show
3:53yesterday. I thought the stars kind of
3:56aligned for the Phillies to like put
3:58themselves in a really good position to
3:59get into the playoffs. They had one of
4:01their best starters on the mound.
4:02Probably the the best starter that they
4:04have on the mound yesterday. And
4:06Arizona's on the road as an underdog.
4:08And yet the Phillies lose and Arizona
4:10comes out, takes care of business and
4:12pulls within one game of the Phillies.
4:15Now we're going into Saturday night, two
4:17games left in the regular season.
4:19Phillies need a win. They don't even
4:21really know who their starting pitcher
4:22is. They haven't announced one yet. It
4:25looks like Jose or Quiddy could either
4:27be the starter or the ball.
4:28>> Either of the Diamondbacks.
4:30>> Yeah. Yeah. We'll get there in a minute.
4:32But like we're talking about the
4:33Phillies right now.
4:34>> That's concerning. That's a little
4:36concerning. and and and I I gotta be
4:39honest, I I don't really know what to do
4:41with this game because the Rays, they're
4:44one of those teams that it's like they
4:45can't help themselves but to play good
4:47baseball. And you know, they like
4:50they're kind of like the Brewers. It's
4:51like it doesn't matter if the game means
4:52something it doesn't. They can't help
4:54themselves. They go out and play good
4:55ball. It's going to be gripping jacks
4:57for the visitors. Rays Phillies, how do
4:59you see this one?
5:01>> Uh was this coming to me or was this
5:03coming to I don't remember who you
5:04asked. I was I was going to go to you,
5:06so doesn't matter.
5:08>> Yeah. Uh be before we talk about this
5:11game, I do want to point out and we talk
5:13about this all the time and and it
5:14hasn't worked out for me this season,
5:16but when football season starts and like
5:19a day in today, everybody's worried
5:20about college football, the Lions Makers
5:23don't pay as much attention to baseball.
5:27And before we get to this this game, I
5:29just wanted to I I sent my clients
5:32um the Houston and Athletics game over.
5:35It was sitting at 8 and a half nine. I
5:38sent him it to him at over nine plus
5:40100. Since I sent it out, it's getting
5:44hit over all all over the place. How do
5:47you make Houston playing in Sacramento
5:51at an eight and a half or a nine? I I
5:53couldn't understand it. I I And I'm
5:55researching. I'm thinking, what the
5:56hell's going on? And now here's where we
5:59sit 6 minutes into the show. It's
6:01getting bombed on the over. So, yes,
6:03there's money to be made. Even though I
6:05haven't been picking them well in the
6:07last week or so, there's money to be
6:09made in baseball if you pay attention to
6:11baseball when football's going on. Just
6:14wanted to point that out. Um, Griffin
6:17Jack's going for Tampa Bay. At this
6:18point, we're undecided on Philadelphia.
6:20We're undecided on a few teams here. Um
6:24but uh in Arizona was one of them. But
6:26Jax is going against I'm assuming yes,
6:28Kitty. They signed him and he hasn't
6:30pitched all week. Um that would be who I
6:33would assume will get the bulk innings
6:34here. I don't know if he'll start. Uh we
6:37don't know any of that yet. It's they're
6:38too early in the morning and this is a
6:40night game. So, but we're looking at um
6:42Philadelphia is about a one one 105 110
6:46favorite uh with a total of seven to the
6:49under a little bit. And um that tells
6:53you a lot right there. Number one, a
6:56seven in Philadelphia, which is a pretty
6:58good ballpark for hitters. And
7:02especially with Philadelphia not
7:03knowing, they're not going to use I
7:05don't think they're going to use any of
7:06their best pitchers because they're
7:08assuming they're going to the playoffs
7:10and I want to line them up for Tuesday.
7:13So we were kind of touching on this
7:15before the show is, hey, you got to get
7:17there first. And um they they they're
7:21not there yet and it's getting that
7:24that's uh the choke sign will be all
7:27over Philadelphia. They don't make the
7:28playoffs this year. So there's a lot of
7:30pressure on them. Uh Tampa Bay, as you
7:33mentioned, um they continue to play
7:35well. And that's the thing I we talked
7:36about this where you only bring up two
7:38players during these September callups
7:41as opposed to before. We could bring up
7:43anybody. you could get a look at a guy
7:45in in double A and let him play a couple
7:47games and you know and that was one of
7:49the things that a lot of people did was
7:51uh they would just bet on the favorites
7:53and have success. But, uh, it's a
7:55different it's a different time
7:57nowadays. And even like we talked about
8:00Milwaukee yesterday and even if you're
8:03throwing out Gasser or whatever, uh, who
8:06I consider an probably an average
8:08pitcher in Major League Baseball, you
8:10still got good players behind you even
8:13though they may give, you know, may only
8:15place the other starters three three
8:16three innings or so. So, it's there's a
8:20lot of guessing going on, but sometimes
8:21if you guess right at this time of year,
8:23you can get some great numbers.
8:25Unfortunately, without knowing what
8:27Philadelphia is going to do, it's so so
8:29early in the morning. I don't want to
8:30get involved with it.
8:33>> Yeah, I'm trying. Tokyo Brandon, I'm
8:34trying to figure out who has the
8:35tiebreaker here because all these teams
8:38split in the regular season. So, it's
8:40going to go to record within the
8:42division.
8:43>> I think the Dbacks might have that. I'm
8:45doing
8:46>> Arizona has
8:47>> Arizona has a tiebreaker but Philly's up
8:49by one game right now,
8:51>> right? So that that creates a really
8:54like interesting situation because they
8:55they don't do play in games anymore. So
8:58if if the Phillies lose tonight and
9:01Arizona wins, what you're telling me
9:02Tokyo Brandon is now the Dbacks would
9:04control their own destiny into the final
9:07day of the season. this that makes it
9:09seem man I don't know if I want to be
9:10the Phillies here not really knowing who
9:12we're going to throw out there when they
9:14they could lose they could they could
9:17play their way out of the playoffs as
9:18early as tonight
9:20a lot of stuff in the air right now up
9:22in the air right now including the Rays
9:25uh don't even know if they're going to
9:27field a proper roster today because uh
9:31they're locked in at the AL number one
9:33seed they have homefield advantage
9:35through the ALCS so it's a potential
9:38you know, rest workload management kind
9:41of spot for them. Are they going to
9:43start their starters for a couple
9:44innings and sit everyone or what are
9:47they going to do? We don't know. And Jax
9:49is another kind of X factor for me. Um,
9:52on the surface, his numbers look pretty
9:54good actually, but he's got a losing
9:56record. My expected numbers kind of like
9:58him. I got him 11 out of 30, but I've
10:01backed him twice and he has laid an egg
10:04both times I backed him. So, I don't
10:06know what to make of him. Doesn't mean
10:08he's a bad pitcher or something. It just
10:10means uh he hasn't stepped up when I
10:12expected him to. Philly and Arizona both
10:15have not decided who their starters are
10:18today. And they both have the most on
10:19the line of any teams in in Major League
10:22Baseball today, which is kind of weird.
10:24But um
10:26if you've been betting teams just based
10:28on motivation, you've been losing a lot
10:30of money because the day before
10:32yesterday, yesterday, you got the
10:34Rangers, you got the Astros, Phillies,
10:37all these teams with a lot on the line
10:39and they're not playing well. So, I
10:41don't know how much we can factor
10:43motivation in, but
10:45I do think Philly will win this game
10:48because they kind of have to. Um that's
10:51all there is for me. I don't know if I'm
10:53going to put money on it though cuz man,
10:55they look like a dumpster fire.
10:59>> See, here's the thing with the whole
11:01like rest guys like Brian was saying,
11:03the these teams don't have deep they
11:05they changed the rules a few years back
11:07where you can only add two players. So,
11:09even if you rested a couple starters,
11:11like look at the Rays roster. It's not
11:14like they have quote unquote starters
11:17that are like like exponentially better
11:20than the guys on their bench. They're a
11:21very deep team, complete team. You look
11:24at their bullpen, like I've said this
11:25all year, outside of Baker, um a lot of
11:28the bullpen arms are like the same like
11:30caliber type arms. So, I just think it's
11:33like I think Brian made the point like
11:35that's why like that's why that doesn't
11:37work anymore. This isn't like it was
11:38five years ago when suddenly teams have
11:4110 extra guys on the bench and then the
11:44last week of the season they can run out
11:45the Durham Bulls lineup. Doesn't work
11:47like that anymore. So, I like the race
11:50here. they're they're playing better. I
11:52at least know what I feel. I feel like I
11:54know what I'm going to get out of
11:55Griffin Jacks. Um whereas, you know, or
11:58Quiddy, I've talked about him quite a
12:00bit over the course of the season. I
12:01think this is his third club this year,
12:04third organization. He was with the
12:05Astros. The White Socks grabbed her. I
12:08actually think he was with the Pirates.
12:09Um he's been he's been around this year
12:11so far and he's had a good season. he's
12:14thrown the ball extremely well at the
12:15AAA level, but to have to kind of thrust
12:18him into this game, you know, in a in a
12:21spot like this when he hasn't had like I
12:24just that doesn't make me feel great
12:26about the Phillies. And then the final
12:27reason that I like the Rays here, I
12:30think they are baking in like the need
12:32to win into this number. You mean to
12:34tell me like if if this is a month ago,
12:37you got Griffin Jacks against a bullpen
12:39game for the Phillies and you're going
12:41to give me minus 105 of the Rays.
12:43They've been one of the top teams in
12:45Major League Baseball all season. I
12:46think there's a little value there with
12:48the Rays, but I I don't know if I can
12:50get to the window with it for a lot of
12:51what we've pointed out, but I do think
12:53there's some value with the race. Brian,
12:55go ahead.
12:55>> Yeah, I did want to point out that Luis
12:57Arise yesterday, the running to first
13:00base,
13:02he left the game, it didn't look good,
13:05and uh he's been he's been a key player
13:07for them down the stretch. uh he he's
13:09rated as the 39th best hitter in
13:11baseball this year and he's one of those
13:13guys that um yeah he doesn't hit home
13:15runs but he's he's a leader and to get
13:19in the chance for him to play in a with
13:21a team that was going to the playoffs I
13:23thought that was a good a good deal when
13:25they uh when they brought him in with
13:28the trade. So, uh, yeah, he may not even
13:30play tonight, which would mean they
13:32probably would have to go with Sosa,
13:34who's Sosa's not Sosa is a guy who could
13:37start on some teams. I I do believe. So,
13:39he'll he'll get in there. But, um, yeah,
13:42it's that that's another thing against
13:44them in this game tonight. So, yeah,
13:46Philadelphia's got their work cut off
13:47for him.
13:48>> Don't know why San Diego got rid of him.
13:54>> All right, let's go back to So, we're
13:55going to go to the chat. Resident Rays
13:57fan freeird hit us with a super sticker.
14:00It's first time I've seen that. You
14:01learn, you know, we're 161 games into
14:05the season. First time I've seen a super
14:07stick sticker. So, shout out to Freeird
14:09for jumping in with that. Uh, very nice
14:12stuff here from Alex Ran. He said, "I
14:14was reviewing my summer and I'm up so
14:16many units from changing how I handicap
14:18teams due to U3. No game pick. Just
14:21shout out to you here every day
14:22learning." Yeah. I mean, that was kind
14:24of always what we wanted to do with the
14:26show.
14:27>> Yeah.
14:27>> It I've said this a million times. We
14:29the the show was never intended to just
14:31come out and give out picks because the
14:33three of us give out picks and that's
14:35how we make our money. We we give pics
14:37to our clients at Wager Talk. So, this
14:39was never this was never intended to be
14:40a show where we just come in and spam
14:43with pics because that would take away
14:45from our service. We we each run a
14:47service. We got to you know, we can't
14:49just come on and give out all the pics
14:50for free. it would it would devalue what
14:52we do for a living. Uh so this was
14:55always the goal. So I'm glad that at
14:57least some of you have taken that away
15:00because that that was that was always
15:01the point of this show. And um yeah, I'm
15:04you know again you can if you're taking
15:06what that was always the point. Take
15:08what you learn here, apply it to your
15:09own handicapping, but you're going to
15:11get some picks. We we we try to get some
15:14picks out on the show. I gave a play
15:16that ended up being a client play
15:17yesterday. It just didn't work out. So,
15:19uh, we are, but yeah, that I I really
15:21that was a very nice, uh, comment.
15:24>> It was,
15:25>> and I
15:26sometimes we're putting these games out
15:2810 hours before the game. We don't know
15:30who's going to be in the lineup. We're
15:32We're doing the best we can with the
15:33information we have.
15:35>> Yeah.
15:35>> And and at least for myself, it hasn't
15:37worked out uh lately with these free
15:40plays. I I do feel I do feel bad because
15:42there's a lot of people just can't
15:43afford to buy the picks, and I want to
15:45give them a winner. And I I'm literally
15:47half the time I'm giving you an actual
15:49client pick. But um a lot can change.
15:53You know, you got to you got to do your
15:55own due diligence. You just can't take a
15:57pick and go with it. You've got to check
15:58your lineups as if you were bet if you
16:01were handicapping yourself. So
16:03>> yeah, there's a difference between free
16:05picks and actionable info. And I think
16:07actionable info is more what we're
16:09shooting for. That's a word that we use
16:11at Wager Talk a lot. So we like to give
16:13you guys actionable info. But of course,
16:16uh, we do throw some pics in there as
16:17well. But education is kind of the
16:19purpose of us three, even educating
16:22ourselves
16:23with each other. So,
16:25>> so glad you guys like it.
16:28>> Tokyo Brandon, I'm going to come back to
16:29you here because I I'm trying as I'm as
16:32I'm talking, I'm not a great
16:33multitasker. I'm trying to figure out
16:35who the Diamondback starter is like
16:36while I'm talking. It's a I I I don't I
16:40don't I need to be doing one thing at
16:41once. Some people are good at
16:42multitasking, do a bunch of different
16:44things. That's not me. I got to be doing
16:46one thing at one one time. So, sorry to
16:49be like over here looking at the screen.
16:52>> That's why when Kelly's like, "Oh, just
16:53throw this graphic on the screen." I'm
16:54like, "I I don't function like that. I
16:56got to be doing one thing at one time."
16:59Uh, and the thing I'm trying to do right
17:01now in real time is figure out who the
17:03starting pitcher is going to be for the
17:04Diamondbacks tonight. This will be the
17:05next game we talk about. Uh, we've
17:07already teased it. Huge game. Arizona
17:10has played their way in very much into
17:12the mix. Uh they don't control their own
17:15destiny because of course if the
17:16Phillies win out, they get the wild card
17:18spot. But one game can flip that. Uh if
17:21the Phillies lose today and the
17:23Diamondbacks win tonight, then it's the
17:25Diamondbacks that that now claim that
17:27final wild card spot into the final day
17:30of the regular season.
17:32They So Ryan Nelson was who I thought
17:35was going to start this game,
17:37>> but without the but they went to him
17:39last night to get an out,
17:41>> which was surprising to me because I I I
17:43thought he was going to be the starter
17:45for this game. I'm reading that he still
17:47could be the starter for this game. It's
17:49just it's just like I don't know if
17:52there So again, Brian's looking at me
17:54like I have 17 heads right now. I don't
17:57know if I I guess like you can you could
18:00look here's the thing like he's probably
18:02not going to be your traditional
18:05starter, but he he threw one batter, so
18:08you you could see him in the game for a
18:11period of time here. Why did they do
18:13that last night? They had a little bit
18:15of a lead. That that's odd to me. And
18:17now I don't really know where the the
18:18Diamondbacks plan to go here.
18:20>> Yeah, they used Zack Allen also uh for
18:23seven pitches yesterday.
18:25that that to me it's it's crazy. I I
18:29don't understand it. Uh I know Miami is
18:31doing if you're following the Marlins,
18:33they're doing a few different things
18:34where they're bringing guys in on their
18:36on their throw day on the side and
18:38letting them pitch relief and now
18:40they're saying that uh one of their
18:42starters is now the closer of the rest
18:44of the season. So, hey, they're they're
18:46out of the playoffs. They could try
18:47something new. I have no problem with
18:49it. But Arizona is right here in the in
18:51the playoff race. And I they brought up
18:55Jose Cabrera from uh Triple A. Uh he
18:58hasn't pitched all week. Maybe they give
19:01him the first couple innings. It's got
19:03to it's got to be a bullpen game. I I
19:05would assume. I don't I've never heard
19:07of it. Just doesn't mean it can't
19:09happen, but I've never heard of a player
19:12starting pitcher pitching in relief one
19:15night, I don't care how many batters it
19:16was, and then coming back out and
19:18starting the next night. Now, I can see
19:20him coming in third, fourth, fifth
19:22inning, maybe for an inning in relief.
19:24But when you're bringing in a starter,
19:26for the most part, you want to get
19:28length out of them. And
19:30>> Nelson and Gallon are starters. to use
19:32them last night. I I I need to go back
19:35and look and I'm I'm hoping that uh that
19:39some reporters were asking them what the
19:41hell were you doing? So hopefully we get
19:43something we can learn the rest of the
19:45day.
19:46>> So So the only thing I can think of
19:48Tokyo Brand, I'll bring you in here. The
19:49only thing I can think of of that wi
19:52with Nelson is the Diamondbacks have now
19:55decided he's a reliever. um which is
19:57which is like odd a little bit because
20:00he's we've known him as a starter. He
20:02went through his rehab as a starter in
20:04in Areno, but since he's been called up,
20:07he's made three relief appearances. So,
20:09I wonder if Arizona's just like, yeah,
20:10like he's a bullpen guy. Now, again,
20:14like if he's a bullpen guy, he threw one
20:17batter, two batters last night. You
20:19could see him here. But that that leads
20:21me to believe that this is probably like
20:23an all hands on deck nine innings of
20:26just trying to find the best matchup
20:28possible and literally taking it inning
20:31by inning. My my gut says this is going
20:34to be a true bullpen game where Tory
20:36Lavell looks at his his uh staff now cuz
20:40yesterday pitched well and you all you
20:43okay you burn Zack Allen who cares
20:45Gallon and um Ryan Nelson both were sort
20:48of like just coming off the IIL
20:50together. So really like if you're
20:52Arizona you have every bullpen arm. You
20:55could just go one one two one like you
20:58know and and do it that way. I don't
21:00know where that leaves you tomorrow, but
21:03it's certainly possible. So, I think
21:05this is going to be a true bullpen game
21:07for the Diamondbacks. Knowing that, TB,
21:09what are you doing with this game?
21:12>> Yeah, I mean, one batter, it's like
21:15batting practice, you know? I mean,
21:17whether you put him in for the fourth
21:19and fifth inning or you put him in for
21:20the first and second inning, what's it?
21:22Two innings is two innings. Um, some
21:25coaches, some managers are like that.
21:26It's like if you're the pitcher, I don't
21:29want you to get fixated on a role. Just
21:31get the batters out. You know, doesn't
21:33matter where we're at in the game. Uh
21:35that's probably how they're thinking.
21:36And you know, teams do funny things in
21:38the playoffs. And for the Diamondbacks,
21:40these are playoff games. You know, they
21:42got to win every single game. They're
21:44the hottest team in MLB right now. I
21:46like Ryan Nelson, actually. I think he's
21:47a pretty good pitcher. Um maybe they got
21:50him warmed up yesterday and they're
21:52going to use him as opener today. Who
21:53knows? Who knows? I mean, anything could
21:56happen. I'm not against it. If if you're
21:58a pitcher, just get the batter out. I
21:59don't care what inning it is, you know.
22:01Um, so regarding this game, I think the
22:06Diamondbacks have a big advantage here.
22:07Uh, regarding the Padres's, they have
22:10already clinched a wild card, but its
22:12wild card seating is not completely
22:14locked. They lead the NLWC group while
22:17the Cubs Phillies remain behind them.
22:20There is some value in winning for the
22:22Padres's, but a lot less urgent than
22:25Arizona right now. So, I like Arizona. I
22:29think I think they got they've got a
22:31pretty darn good bullpen. I' I've ragged
22:33on their bullpen a lot at the beginning
22:34of the season, but their bullpen's
22:36pitching pretty well right now compared
22:37to San Diego's, which is pitching 22nd
22:39right now, um, according to my rankings.
22:42And I do not like Walker Beller. He got
22:45tagged his last time out. He has not
22:47been very good. I don't like him at all.
22:50Uh I got the Diamondbacks hitting number
22:52two in MLB where I got the Padres's
22:54hitting six. So I think we're going to
22:56see a lot of runs, but in the end I
22:58think the Diamondbacks should prevail in
23:00this one in my opinion.
23:02>> Brian, go ahead.
23:03>> Yeah, I just wanted to touch just a
23:05couple things. Uh they they've used Cole
23:08Drake and uh Mitch Barat. Would you
23:10surprise either one of you if they
23:12called one of those one of them up to
23:13pitch again? because they've been
23:15starting earlier and the season's the
23:17season's over there. So, that could be a
23:20possibility. I will point out from a
23:22hitting standpoint. Um, Moreno, Purdomo,
23:26and Aronado are all in the top six
23:29hitters in the last week. So, they their
23:32hitting is on fire right now. Um, so,
23:36uh, I I'm in agreement on some runs
23:39being scored. Fer is a guy who I like
23:41for a spot earlier in the season, but he
23:43has not done nothing here. So, and as TB
23:46pointed out, San Diego's basically, you
23:48know, it's not a need to win type of
23:51situation. It would be a like to win
23:52situation, but uh yeah, it' be
23:55interesting how this works out.
23:58>> I'm going to use the Diamondbacks as my
24:00parlay lake. I I don't think they should
24:01be underdogs here. Um Brian, what am I
24:04looking at for a number right now?
24:06Uh,
24:08right now you can get
24:11plus 101 maybe on uh on the Diamondbacks
24:15against Ber.
24:16>> Okay, they may flip to a they may flip
24:17to a favorite. I It was probably like
24:18plus 105 like when we got in the show
24:20here. Here's why I just don't think that
24:22they should be underdogs in this spot.
24:24So they the theoretically and I really
24:28believe Tory Lavell is going to play it
24:29this way. I I think he's gonna look at
24:31this game where every every inning is
24:34like a mini game and he has to win the
24:36inning. And like Brand Tokyo Brandon
24:37said, you got your whole bullpen. You
24:39got guys like Mitch Bro and Cole Drake
24:41that you could bring up from from Reno
24:43that would be in line to pitch. And I I
24:46truly believe it's just going to be an
24:47inning byining thing where he's not
24:50really even going to be that worried
24:52about who he uses because that's the
24:54type of thing you worry about tomorrow.
24:56You have to get through today. Now Jay,
24:59this is not true. He says it won't
25:01matter because the Phillies win today.
25:03That doesn't matter because Arizona has
25:05the tiebreaker and they will not go.
25:07They don't play playing games anymore.
25:09Now it's like the tiebreaker decides it.
25:12So even if the Phillies win the earlier
25:14game because of the way these line up, I
25:16believe the Phillies is the earlier
25:17game. Even if the Phillies win that
25:19game, if Arizona comes out and wins,
25:22they go to the final day of the season
25:24where a Diamondbacks win and a Phillies
25:26loss would flip who's in that final wild
25:28card. So, you're not going to see
25:30there's no scenario where Arizona's less
25:32motivated to go allin and win this game.
25:36If they lose, then their season is
25:38likely over. So, I think you're going to
25:39see Tory Lavell allin managerial mode.
25:44one. Yeah, it basically if he has to use
25:46nine different pitchers in this game, he
25:48will. And that's tough to prepare for.
25:51Like I just don't see the Padres's being
25:53like ready to like do anything with that
25:56given that they've kind of got in and
25:58you know they've they maybe are in
26:00exhale mode here. Brian, go ahead.
26:02>> Yeah, I just want to point out the game
26:03won't be over. Uh the Philadelphia
26:05game's about an hour and a half earlier.
26:07um and no lead to safe in Major League
26:10Baseball, but um they may have an idea,
26:13but that the game will the G game will
26:16they'll come out expecting that they
26:17need to win. So,
26:19>> yeah, and and the Phillies like what I
26:21was saying though was the Phillies
26:22outcome is not going to affect that at
26:25all because even if the Phillies are up
26:2710 runs, it doesn't it doesn't make this
26:29any different of a spot for Arizona and
26:32how they would manage the game.
26:35>> Okay, let's get back. So, Alex Ran,
26:37quick promo for a show I have coming up.
26:40He said, "I'm going to miss when
26:41baseball's over. This is my constant
26:429:00 a.m." Well, lucky for you, Rob Vino
26:45and I fill this spot with fullcourt
26:47press in the basketball show uh as soon
26:49as baseball's over. November 1st will be
26:52the first uh I believe the first
26:54fullcourt press and then we just take
26:55this time slot over. So, if you're if
26:58you're looking for something to fill
26:59that time slot, we got you. Um pretty
27:02much seamless the way it works out.
27:03baseball ends. Couple days later, we're
27:05off and running with 365 division one
27:08team. You think I'm strung out right
27:10now? We wait we I'm probably two energy
27:13drinks deep as soon as college
27:14basketball.
27:15>> And and I will say um Rob Veno is a guy,
27:19a really good guy that we were friends
27:22with here in Vegas. I always learn
27:23something from Rob and I learned
27:25something from Trey. I learned something
27:27from TB. So yeah, that's a good show to
27:29watch. They've got a lot of information
27:30and there's with all those teams, you
27:33guys are on top of it and so you do a
27:35terrific job and I so I would highly
27:38recommend people to watch that show.
27:40>> Yeah, Veno is the legitimate
27:41encyclopedia that that dude like listen
27:44he's the smartest dude on the site. I'll
27:46I'll I'll say like that there's mo like
27:48he's got the most knowledge of anyone on
27:50the the wager talk site just in his
27:52brain just like I put him up against
27:54anyone.
27:55>> Yeah. I I used to we used to do shows in
27:57because the casinos and I had Andy Isco
28:00on one side of me and I don't know if
28:01anybody knows Andy but Andy's like that
28:04and and Rob Vino on the other side and
28:07it it made my job a lot easier.
28:10>> Yeah. Like there's never a scenario
28:11where I ask him about something where I
28:13think that he's just not going to have
28:15and then he'll be like this one time in
28:161982 I was at like a urinal and like
28:19this dude walked in and like I bet this
28:22play and this happened. Just amazing
28:24stuff. Um, shout out Rob Vino. He does
28:27it with like multiple sports at the same
28:29I mean he him and uh him and ski are
28:31still going on the on the WNBA. He'll be
28:34doing NBA as soon as that's done. Like
28:36honestly
28:37amazing stuff. So shout out to Veno. Uh
28:40and if you like Rob Vinu, you need you
28:42need him now. Um tomorrow 10 a.m.
28:45Eastern I do a game day NFL show with
28:48Veno in this format right here on the
28:50Wager Talk YouTube channel. So, we'll be
28:52doing that 10:00 a.m. Eastern tomorrow.
28:55Okay, let's get back to the chat here.
28:58We'll try to I'm going to try to stick
28:59to games that do have some un unless
29:02someone like explicitly asks, I will try
29:05to stick to games that have a little bit
29:07of uh you know, meaning going into the
29:10final couple days. So, Tokyo Brandon,
29:12let's talk about those Astros. I know
29:14you you wanted to vent a little bit
29:15before we got on the show. That was a
29:17bad that was a bad for them last night.
29:20That that is I mean they know the
29:22Rangers are getting crushed and to give
29:25up like a six spot there to the A's
29:29bad that that was just a bad result for
29:31them. Now now they still come in to the
29:35final two days I believe controlling
29:37their own destiny. We will have for the
29:39first time ever a team that finishes 500
29:42or worse in a 16-2 game season make win
29:46a division and make the playoffs. That
29:47will be the winner of the AL West.
29:49Cannot finish with a better than 500
29:52record. So, it's going to be Hayden West
29:54Weski. Uh looks like Jackson Perkins for
29:57the A's.
29:58>> Yep.
29:58>> Do you do you go back to the Astros
30:00here? What do you do after that uh game
30:02last night, TB?
30:03>> So, you guys can get a double play. It's
30:06available through October 4th. It's two
30:08of us three. Uh 3 days baseball all
30:12access. Uh I'm currently up 115 units in
30:162026
30:17number two on the site. So uh pretty
30:21decent guy to back. That would include
30:23any baseball. Adam, if you have him, it
30:25would be his minor league. Uh and it's
30:29my Asian and everything. So if you take
30:31two of us three, three days all access.
30:34Uh, so that's uh a nice little promo
30:38there. And I do have one baseball MLB
30:41pick out for today.
30:44Let's get to this one. Um, I'm angry at
30:46the Astros for using this SOZA guy. He's
30:49got a 17 whip and playoffs on the line.
30:52He almost lost the game for him two
30:54nights ago. They held on and then they
30:56put him in again yesterday and he did
30:57lose it for them. So, I'm just wondering
31:00they don't have any better arms than
31:01this. It's just insane with everything
31:03on the line. Is their bullpen that not
31:06bad? I have their bullpen ranked 22 out
31:09of 30 where I got the A's bullpen ranked
31:1127.
31:14Um, the A's do have Harris. He's pretty
31:16darn good and he did make an appearance
31:18last night. Um, and I got the A's
31:20batting better than the Astros. Got the
31:23A's ranked eight and the Astros ranked
31:2412. But, uh, Astros have a lot on the
31:28line right now. They're dead even with
31:30the Rangers right now, but they have the
31:32tiebreaker.
31:33So, if they finish tied, Houston will
31:35win the West. But every game matters. It
31:39seems like the Rangers and the Astros
31:41are both trying to give it to the other
31:43team,
31:45especially the Rangers. Deg Grom looked
31:47horrible. But anyway, I like Weski. Um,
31:51so Deg Grom had Deg Grom has had two
31:53starts that actually made me feel bad
31:55for him, and yesterday was one of them.
31:58Uh, he looked awful, but uh, I don't
32:01think the Rangers expected that.
32:02Anyways, I like Wesneski and I don't
32:04like Perkins at all. If the Astros don't
32:06win this game, they don't belong. I
32:09mean, Brian, I think you were saying it
32:11before the show, if teams need a win,
32:13they probably don't deserve to be in the
32:16playoffs anyways. But, you know, you do
32:17have the dregs of the playoff teams
32:20that, you know, get eliminated in round
32:22one. And Rangers and Astros will
32:24probably be one of those teams. But
32:26Astros really need this game. Be hard
32:29not to take them here.
32:31>> Sorry, I've been uh battling these bad
32:34sinus headaches. So, I was uh I I my if
32:38you see like my eyes watering and I'm
32:40struggling over here, that is why. But
32:41we play we play through it. We play
32:43hurt. No big deal. Um uh but yeah, that
32:47that's so that's why I'm like, you know,
32:49over here having like a meltdown uh
32:51during that game. Not as bad, not as bad
32:52as the meltdown that the Astros are
32:54having if they don't make the playoffs.
32:55Now, Tokyo Brandon, you made a a good
32:57point like, you know, maybe the Astros
32:59could have had someone else in the game,
33:01but I do think the Astros probably at
33:04that point knew that the Rangers were
33:06were a likely loser yesterday. So, I
33:09think it did allow them to manage things
33:11a little bit differently. Um, they the
33:15Astros still win winin and they're in.
33:17So again, you you want to the Astros
33:19were in a unique situation yesterday
33:21where
33:22you you can't lose and cook the top
33:25bullpen arms, right? Like a loss once it
33:28was 10 to Twins, a loss wasn't going to
33:30kill you, but a loss and then burning
33:33your absolute best guys going into f the
33:36final two days of the season where if
33:37you go win win and you're in, that would
33:40have killed you. So now the Astros come
33:42to this game. Like I said, I do believe
33:44they have the tiebreaker in this
33:45division. um via head-to-head with the
33:48Rangers, but don't quote me on that. I
33:49want to look that up. Uh but still, as a
33:52must-win as it gets, Brian, am I seeing
33:55a little bit of a cheaper price on the
33:56Astros here than yesterday? Because that
33:58would I guess I mean, I I I don't want
34:02to bet against the A's at home. They
34:04They're just too They don't care. They
34:07haven't cared about anything all year.
34:08They're young kids looking for a chance
34:10to play ball and win games and they have
34:12been so dangerous in this spot um for
34:15the last month and a half. So I don't
34:16even care what the price is on the
34:17Astros. I'm not betting against the A's
34:19at Sutter Health Park. They they want to
34:22play spoiler right now. A's Astros to
34:24you.
34:25>> Yeah, we talked about it yesterday how
34:26the Athletics continue to come out and
34:28play. Um and and they did yesterday. I
34:31had planned originally before the show
34:33started, I was going to use this as my
34:34pre-play, but uh as I pointed out
34:37earlier at the beginning of the show, uh
34:39it got my line got blown up. So,
34:41congratulations to everybody who has
34:43joined us. Uh you got that play, you
34:46were able to get that play in at uh nine
34:49over nine at plus 100. Now, uh we're
34:52looking at Weski about a 155 favorite
34:55and 9 and a half slightly to the under.
34:59um still think it's going to go over,
35:01but
35:03you got to put a limit on what your
35:05numbers are. And uh the numbers aren't
35:07that far off, although this one was. I
35:09saw eight and a halfs out there um in a
35:12couple places. But uh yeah, Wasinski's
35:14not pitched as well on the road as he
35:16has at home. Um and that's a concern.
35:19Perkins has been really good his last
35:21two starts, but if you go over what he's
35:25done all season long, he's been very
35:26inconsistent. And so he yeah, he may be
35:29in a good run right now. He had a little
35:31bit of a decent run earlier in the year,
35:34but to play in this ballpark
35:38uh with two teams that can definitely
35:41score some runs here. And if you take a
35:43look at the bullpens and and you know TB
35:45just talked about a little bit, yeah,
35:47her hasn't pitched the last two days,
35:48but he threw 44 pitches on Wednesday. uh
35:51they they needed that game and they
35:54didn't get it and that was that really
35:55hurt them coming down the stretch here
35:57for for the uh Thursday, Friday,
35:59Saturday and Sunday games. Now he'll
36:01probably be available here but you take
36:03a look at their other key arms. Abrau
36:04has pitched two of the last three. Uh
36:06Blue Ball's pitched three of the last
36:08four. Uh SAS pitched three of the last
36:11four. Blew the save yesterday. Uh,
36:16yolola, whatever. Miguel, uh, he pitched
36:1933 pitches on Tuesday, 35 on Thursday.
36:23Um,
36:25they're not in the best bullpen shape
36:26either. So, uh, as well as they're
36:29hitting, they've got one, two, three,
36:30four, five. They got six guys right now
36:32hitting in the top 100 for the last
36:33week. And the A's have been hitting
36:36hitting pretty well also. So, I can't
36:38I'm with you. I can't lay that number
36:41with Houston. If I'm playing, I'm taking
36:43the underdog. But even though uh the
36:46line has gone up since earlier, my
36:48better play would be on playing this
36:50game over. You can still get it over
36:52nine and a half at plus 100. I see a
36:55minus 110 out there. But um you won't
36:58have to lay much juice in that regard if
36:59they score 10 runs in this game. That
37:01would be the way I would go. But um we
37:04did miss out on the better line as I
37:06pointed out earlier. Brian, that's a
37:08good that's a really good bet that you
37:10have in pocket right there. Um the A's
37:12the A's, listen, the A's have won three
37:14of their last four games. Um the A's are
37:16in a rough situation bullpen wise today
37:19and that's not a good bullpen. So there
37:21there's a there's going to be a lot of
37:22opportunity for runs late in this game
37:24uh as well. We Brian just laid out the
37:26Astros bullpen concerns, but man, the
37:28A's, it's one of the worst bullpens in
37:30the league as it is and they've cooked
37:32through a lot of their bullpen um
37:35because they've been in the lead and
37:36they've been winning games. Last night
37:37they needed to go pretty, you know, deep
37:39in the leverage relief to hold on to
37:41that lead. It was 6-1, suddenly it's 65
37:43and now the A's need uh to use some of
37:46their better arms to close out that
37:47game. So, I think if the Astros win
37:48here, it's going to be because they they
37:51were able to to put up a crooked number
37:52late in this game. Uh, but yeah, I mean,
37:55listen, if the Astros get to Jackson
37:57Perkins at all, they probably win big
37:59because of because of that right there.
38:01Either way, I think the best play here
38:03is the over. I'm with you, Brian. I'm
38:05with I think that over is a very good
38:07look. And I think if like right now you
38:08could even get a juiced nine, that still
38:11makes a lot of sense.
38:13>> Tokyo Brandon, coming back to you, we
38:15have a request. So, Freeird says Brewers
38:18minus one today. What about the over
38:20seven? This was the game. We we did talk
38:22about this game yesterday. Said the
38:24Brewers just they're they're like the
38:25Rays. Like they only know how to play
38:28winning baseball. Doesn't matter if the
38:30game means something or it doesn't. They
38:32just come out and play good ball. They
38:34are at home against the Cardinals again.
38:36They are once again a big favorite. How
38:39do you look at Brewers Cardinals?
38:40Anything here for you? Yeah, the Brewers
38:43are a weird team because they they have
38:48absolutely nothing to play for and they
38:50just keep winning and winning and
38:52winning. They've clinched the NL number
38:53one. They have a buy for home field
38:55through the postseason. Uh and they've
38:58already got the that uh what lucrative
39:01or that elusive 100 win season. So, what
39:06are they playing for? Well, they're
39:07playing to keep their guys fresh. Uh,
39:10and Dustin May is is part of their
39:12rotation. He probably will be in the
39:14postseason as well. So, it's important
39:16to keep him on his regular schedule
39:19here. Uh, probably won't see him deep
39:22into the game. They'll probably, if
39:24they're winning, they might leave him
39:25into five to get him a win, but probably
39:28not going to go very deep in this one.
39:30Going against Matthews.
39:33Matthews is pitching really well,
39:34actually. um guy many people might not
39:38have heard of, but yeah, I mean he's a
39:40good pitcher. Um take a look a little
39:43closer and make sure I'm not sure
39:45exactly how deep he's been going into
39:47his game. So, let me check. Oh, yeah.
39:49He's gone seven innings, six innings,
39:50six innings, five innings. He's pitching
39:52really well, too. Uh his his uh whip
39:56doesn't show it. The 138 is a little
39:58bloated, but his expected numbers are
40:01really good. Um, bullpen wise though, no
40:04contest. Milwaukee all the way. Hitting
40:06Milwaukee all the way. I don't really
40:08trust us in May a lot. And I don't know
40:11if Milwaukee is going to start their
40:13full roster, but they would probably be
40:15the side to take in any case, but
40:18they're minus 192 in a game that doesn't
40:20matter against a pitcher who's actually
40:22pitching pretty good. Um, I'm definitely
40:26not taking Milwaukee, but I don't think
40:28I could take the Cardinals either.
40:30The overunder doesn't really make sense
40:32to me either. So, I'll probably lay off
40:34this one.
40:36>> Brian, I think this is one if it was I
40:39think I could get down with some
40:41Cardinals activity here. Uh, but for me,
40:44it's Quinn Quinn Matthews is the is the
40:46draw there for me. Um, this is a guy I
40:48think I think going into next year, this
40:51is a name that you want to jot down and
40:53and be high on coming into the season.
40:55So last year going into the season
40:58coming out of spring training, I had him
41:01as the number one rated starting pitcher
41:03in Triple A. Um like by like you know
41:08something he was one easily in my
41:10opinion coming out of spring training
41:12last year. He's a a former high draft
41:14pick, very highly touted prospect and
41:17then he got hurt uh early on. I think he
41:19made like two starts in Triple A, got
41:21hurt. It was pretty much a a seasonl
41:24long thing. He tried to come back from
41:25it. Probably shouldn't have. It it it
41:28derailed his entire season to the point
41:30where it actually probably pushed off
41:32his major league debut this year. I
41:34think had had they been a little bit
41:36more responsible with his injury last
41:38year, he would have came into this
41:40season more ready to go. Instead, he
41:42came into this season still dealing with
41:44that same injury. And it just took him a
41:46while to get going. He makes his major
41:48major league debut on August 1st. Was
41:51really good. And so I think you're
41:53seeing what you would have saw last year
41:55had he not gotten hurt. Uh obviously no
41:58one's going to remember that because it
42:00it's come in like garbage time for the
42:02Cardinals, but we're going to remember
42:03it because that's what we do. So Quinn
42:06Matthews, I think he has a good start
42:07here to put a a cap on his 2026 season.
42:11Probably something for him to build on
42:12going into next year. But Brian, he's
42:14one of these lefties. You love these
42:16types of guys when a team hasn't hasn't
42:18had a ton of exposure to them. Um he's I
42:21could totally see him going out throwing
42:23a good game and the Cardinals if they
42:25were going to get one more the rest of
42:26the way it feels like it's going to be
42:27this one. So lean Cardinals to me and if
42:30that plus one and a half is affordable
42:31it's something I'd look at Brewers
42:33Cardinals what do you have here?
42:34>> Yeah, you got Matthews against May as
42:36was pointed out. The Lions down to about
42:38185 so it's not quite as expensive as it
42:41was before. Total seven and a half. If
42:44you didn't get a chance to watch
42:46yesterday's game that was a tight game.
42:47it went into the eighth inning tied to
42:49four. So, the Cardinals, you know, they
42:52they played their hearts out yesterday,
42:54just the bullpen has just been so bad
42:55lately in St. Louis that it cost him the
42:58game. And that's my only concern here.
43:00If you do like St. Louis, I think um I
43:03would much rather have Matthews in the
43:05first five than May. May's been kind of
43:08bounced around a lot lately, either
43:10because of what's going on or he's a guy
43:12that can't can't get out of the way of
43:14line drives. coming back at him and he's
43:17he's frustrated. So, he's not pitching
43:19well right now. Matthews is pitching
43:21much better. And you're only getting,
43:23you know, you're getting like 10 cents
43:25less. Instead of getting 155, you're
43:27probably getting 145. But I much prefer
43:30the Milwaukee bullpen over the St. Louis
43:32bullpen right now. So, if I'm getting
43:34involved, I would play St. Louis in the
43:37first five. That makes a lot of sense to
43:39me. Milwaukee knows they're strong
43:41enough where the longer the game goes,
43:43and I say this all the time, when you're
43:45playing first innings, five innings,
43:46third, they got three innings now. The
43:48longer the game goes, the better team
43:50has a chance to win. And and Milwaukee
43:53knows that, and they found ways to do
43:54it. They scored four runs in the eighth
43:55inning, got that victory yesterday. Uh,
43:58so they're not going to panic. And plus,
43:59the game doesn't mean anything anyway to
44:01them. But if you're going to play the
44:04game, I think St. Louis in the first
44:05five is not a bad bet. Brian, I totally
44:10agree. That is that is the way I would
44:11play it. Great point. You can get Quinn
44:14Matthews and the Cardinals in the first
44:15five plus a half a run at plus money.
44:18>> I I love that that Dustin Mays two or
44:21three innings. He's He's not I mean,
44:23maybe he maybe they give him a start
44:25here, but I I I don't He's not He won't
44:27see a start in the postseason. Not that
44:29that'd be crazy. You can't trot him out
44:31here in the postseason start. I think
44:32he's I think he's going to be relegated
44:34to like mopup duty in the playoffs. see
44:37someone that you're down 6-1 in game one
44:39and you want to save everyone, go throw
44:41Dustin May out there to get five
44:42innings. Um, yeah. No, that that's a
44:45great call. Cardinals plus a half a run
44:48in the first five is plus 105. I I'm
44:51shocked that that's plus money.
44:54Okay, Tokyo Brandon, do you know where
44:56you want to go with the parlay? Is it a
44:57game we've talked about yet or not?
45:00>> It is not a game we have talked about
45:02yet. I am going to go to Kansas City. Uh
45:07Cleveland Guardians are a team that
45:09really need to win here and they have a
45:11pitcher that I've been backing quite a
45:13bit. Michael Walker is one of those guys
45:15who he's one of those reliable old
45:18hands. Uh he's a good innings eater guy.
45:21He's he's reliable. He's he's a pretty
45:23good pitcher. Um, but by is a guy who
45:27I've been backing off and on this season
45:29uh in certain spots and I think this is
45:33uh one of those spots to back him
45:35although his expected numbers are not as
45:37good as Waka's actually. Uh Waka's
45:40expected numbers are better but uh the
45:43Guardians have the much better bullpen
45:45uh rank six out of 30 where I got the
45:48Royals ranked 24 and lineups are pretty
45:51negligible actually. Uh Cleveland 7,
45:54Kansas City nine in current form. Uh but
45:58uh looking at the uh playoff race here,
46:02uh right now the Guardians lead Chicago
46:05by one game. Uh but Cleveland loses the
46:09tiebreaker to the White Socks. So if
46:12they tie it'll cost them the division.
46:14So uh I think they're very they're going
46:17to come out here hopefully. Uh it seems
46:20like these teams that need the wins are
46:22kind of trying to back themselves out of
46:24the playoffs, but I think Cleveland I
46:26think we see a good game out of
46:27Cleveland today. Uh I liked them against
46:29Boston. I like them against the Royals.
46:32So uh I think Cleveland's going to be my
46:34parlay leg for the day. I think it's
46:36minus 130 or minus 125 in that area.
46:39Right.
46:40>> It's actually better than that. And um
46:43it's interesting that you picked it
46:44because this is what I was going to use
46:46as my Harley pick. Sorry. I was but um
46:49yeah I I can I can rotate on that but
46:52yeah money has come in on Kansas City
46:55and um I don't know if I agree with it.
46:58Uh it was in the 1251 130 range. Now you
47:01could get I'm seeing places out there
47:03right now that's got it as a pickup. So
47:06um I'm I'm in agreement on Bay. Uh he's
47:09a league average pitcher this year. He's
47:10got a 50 uh a 50 average game score, but
47:14he's been very good on the road and um
47:16he wins the road road starts and and
47:19Bobb's been very good and I talked about
47:21this earlier in the season, but he's
47:23been very good over the years against
47:24divisional rivals. Teams that he sees a
47:26lot he seems to pitch better against.
47:29And um I'm not going to mess with the
47:32total because I think I've been involved
47:34in unders and Kansas City totals the
47:36last three days, lost them all. So, I'm
47:38not going to touch the total here, but I
47:40think Cleveland, especially now that the
47:42price has gone down, is the way to go. I
47:44do have a little bit concerns with the
47:46Cleveland bullpen. Um, Kate Smith's been
47:49pitching every other day. Uh, and he's
47:52been pitching great. He's been
47:53fantastic. In fact, he's the best
47:55pitcher in Major League Baseball over
47:56the last 14 days, and he's up to number
47:58two, the second best pitcher in baseball
48:00on the season according to Fan Graphs.
48:02Uh he did not pitch yesterday and that
48:04was a good thing because Gatis has now
48:07pitched three out of the last four
48:08games. Uh he blew the save and got the
48:10win last night. Uh we're looking at
48:12Sabroski who's been pitching lights out
48:15lately. He's gone three of the last four
48:16games. Tim Herren three of the last four
48:19games. So they do have Kate Smith that's
48:22going to be available tonight. But there
48:24there no way they're going to throw out
48:25Gatison Sabras to pitch three days in a
48:28row. So, I am a little bit concerned
48:30with the Cleveland Clay bullpen in that
48:32regard, but um Bobb's they're going to
48:35keep Bobby out there. Bobb's going to go
48:37for a 100 pitches in this game. They
48:39they need him to have a good game. If he
48:42does get hit, you'll see the lesser
48:44arms. You'll see the Fesas, the uh the
48:47Yohos and Slate Shikone is on the team.
48:50They got Slate Shone on the team. And if
48:52he gets in the lineup, that's probably
48:53not a good thing. But, uh, they do they
48:56do have a guy that is used to pitching a
48:58lot of innings and that may be the way
49:00they go if if if he gets hit early and,
49:02uh, that's that's a concern. I I'm not a
49:06huge Slade Chicone fan. So, um, I agree
49:10with you. I like Cleveland, but the
49:12bullpen is my only drawback in that
49:14game.
49:15>> Yeah, I'd be on the other side here for
49:17that reason. I'll just give the the
49:18other side perspective. of the Guardians
49:21have now won um nine of 10. They've won
49:25nine of 10 and all but one of those
49:28games have been three runs or less. So
49:30that that is my concern for the
49:32Guardians. They have won close game
49:34after close game. The one loss was a
49:37one- nothing loss to the Red Sox where
49:39it was still a close game where they
49:41were still in it with leverage relief
49:44arms trying to win a game. That's my
49:47only concern is that like their bullpen
49:49is so cooked that okay Tanner BY great
49:52that's I mean he's very good and he he
49:54can go out and give you length but
49:55you're up against Michael Waka here
49:57who's been awesome I mean every year
49:59Michael Waka just gets ignored and every
50:03year he comes in with like a mid-3 ZRA I
50:06think his whip is 1.11 this year he's
50:08been he's he's done it so good for so
50:11like more than maybe anyone in the game
50:13right now where like this guy just never
50:15has a bad year. He goes out and turns in
50:17the same year every single year. Doesn't
50:19matter what team he's on. Doesn't matter
50:21if his team's out of it. He's just super
50:23consistent. And so, like for me here
50:25with the Royals, like I I've watched a
50:26good amount of Royals this week. They're
50:28still playing hard. They they they've
50:30you know, they they're not a great ball
50:32club, but they're still playing hard.
50:33You can't They were in that game last
50:35night. They were battling. They did it
50:36with they did it to the White Socks
50:38earlier this week, uh where they stole a
50:40game from from the White Socks with
50:41Hagen Smith on the mound. So, the Royals
50:43are still playing hard. I I be on the
50:46Royals here, but I don't think I like it
50:48enough to put actual dollars on it. So,
50:51I hope for your guys sake the Guardians
50:52win. Brian, are we um what what are we
50:54looking at for a Guardians money line
50:56there?
50:56>> Yeah, basically it's minus 110. It's
50:58getting down to a pick them range here
50:59and uh I think that's a little bit of a
51:01bargain, but I agree. The Kansas City
51:02bullpen is in better shape and they've
51:05been hitting pretty well lately. Uh
51:06they've got six guys in the top 100
51:08lately. So, uh yeah, I understand why
51:11the money's coming in on Kansas City. I
51:13just think that uh I I prefer the
51:16Cleveland headers in this game. I Kansas
51:19City has been up and down all season
51:20long. Cleveland finds ways to win.
51:22Kansas City finds ways to lose. And
51:24that's the only reason why um I would be
51:26on here. And for my part of the parlay,
51:29I'm going to go back to that since no
51:31since TB went and stole my play. I think
51:35he's stolen two of my plays so far this
51:37week.
51:38>> He owes me a beer when he gets back into
51:40Vegas. But uh I'm I'm gonna go back to
51:42that St. Louis game and
51:43>> I got you pizza last time.
51:45>> There you go.
51:47I I'll go back to that St. Louis game
51:49and I will use your suggestion on taking
51:52St. Louis in the first half for that
51:54game at plus a half and you can get that
51:56at like plus 100 minus 105. We'll go
52:00minus 102 on that and uh we'll use that
52:03but you can get a little bit better out
52:04there at some places. So, yeah, I just I
52:07don't I don't trust May uh the way he's
52:09pitching right now. And uh yeah,
52:12Milwaukeee's got no reason to jump out
52:14to a big lead. They're just going to
52:16cruise through the game. If they if they
52:17win the game, great. If not, it's no big
52:19deal. So, uh and St. Louis is a team
52:22desperate for victories. So, yeah, I I
52:24would I would I don't want the St. Louis
52:25bullpen, but I have no problem with the
52:27starting pitcher.
52:29>> All right, we'll we'll uh we'll recap
52:31the parlay at the end. We got a couple
52:32minutes left. I want to get a six sixth
52:34game in here. So, Freeird at the gun
52:36with it. We're not going to leave you
52:38hanging. Appreciate the donations. All
52:39the donations to the channel go to
52:42charity of of the home office is
52:44choosing. You guys have have run it up
52:46for us all year. We very much appreciate
52:47that. So, segue here. Perfect. It's like
52:50it's like I planned it. Freeird asking
52:52about the White Socks. Uh segue here.
52:55The Guardians need to win. If they
52:58don't, they risk the the they risk
53:00losing the division to the Chicago White
53:02Socks, who won big last night and now
53:04have put themselves in a position where
53:06they can steal this division on the
53:07final two days of the season. White
53:10Socks still at home against the Rockies.
53:12However, Brian, I'll come to you first.
53:14This is this is a tougher spot for the
53:17White Socks than last night. I feel
53:19like, you know, they had last night they
53:21did what I said they were going to do.
53:22If they got the lead, it was going to be
53:23Grant Taylor to get them to the finish
53:25line. They got the lead and they leaned
53:27on Taylor in that game.
53:29>> Not saying it's a bad matchup for them
53:31in terms of winning the game. They're
53:32still they still face a 100 loss 100
53:35plus loss Rockies team, but this might
53:37be a spot where the Rockies have a
53:39little bit more success. Rockies, white
53:40socks to you.
53:41>> Yeah, I'm not laying this number. Uh
53:43they've got uh Quintana the lefty
53:45against M uh Martin and uh we're looking
53:49at 235 right now uh for the White Socks
53:52with a total of eight uh pretty much
53:56eight. Yeah, eight minus 15 to the over
53:58a little bit. Uh yeah, I if if I'm
54:01playing I'm looking for Colorado in the
54:03first half of the game maybe. Uh right
54:05now if you play him straight up you're
54:07getting about a 190 192 back. Let me
54:10check that. Look at the first half. uh
54:12you're getting
54:14Yeah. 160 back. So, it does make a
54:16difference. They're they're on to what I
54:18was looking to do. So, but I I think
54:20Colorado, if they're going to win a game
54:23the rest of the year, this may be the
54:25one. Um that said, we are we are looking
54:29at the worst team in baseball is going
54:31to cost me my future. Uh Angels. The
54:33Angels are going to end up with the
54:35second worst record and that 9 to1 goes
54:37to waste because of the Rockies, but
54:39they were the favorite to do that coming
54:41into the season. So, we kind of expected
54:43that. But, um, yeah, Colorado's as live
54:48as they could be, I would say, in this
54:51game.
54:52>> Tokyo Brandon, Rocky's White Socks to
54:55you. Do you think the dog is a chance
54:57here?
54:58>> No.
54:59I mean, um, in one word, but Kintana,
55:04yeah, I mean, he's a guy who who he
55:07battles. He's a warrior. Uh, Davis
55:09Martin great at the beginning of the
55:11season, tailing off a little in the
55:13second half of the season. But White Sox
55:16are hitting quite well right now. I got
55:18them ranked fifth in current form where
55:21I got the Rockies ranked 15. Um, bullpen
55:24though, not bullpen, I don't know. uh
55:28leaves a little to be desired. Could be
55:30a high-scoring game here. I I like I do
55:32like the over actually. I think both
55:34teams are going to score some runs. Uh
55:36but the White Sox have made the
55:38playoffs, but they want to win that
55:39division and they have the tiebreaker.
55:41So, uh yeah, they are motivated to win,
55:44but as we've seen in the last two or
55:46three days, motivation doesn't always
55:48equal an automatic win, but the Colorado
55:50Rockies are pretty bad. So, uh yeah, I
55:53think the I think the White Sox pull it
55:55out here, but they're minus 250. It's
55:57kind of hard to back them when they
55:59don't have the superior bullpin against
56:00the worst team in baseball. So, not
56:03going to bet them. I I would bet an over
56:04if I had to bet this game. I probably
56:06won't though.
56:08>> I would take Rockies plus one and a half
56:09if I had to bet this game. It's minus
56:11105. Listen, you are essentially last
56:14night was a exponentially better
56:16scenario for the White Socks and the
56:18price is the same today. So you so
56:20basically you're getting the same exact
56:22price as you would have yesterday except
56:24this is a a much much more favorable
56:27scenario for the White Socks. You're
56:29probably not going to see Grant Taylor.
56:30You're probably, you know, you you may
56:32see Hagen Smith again, but he did pitch
56:34last night and he's been throwing quite
56:36a bit lately. Um you have what Kintana's
56:39probably your best starter at this
56:41point. Last night you had Tommo Sugano
56:43who throws batting practice. So, like
56:45better starter, better relief arm since
56:48you didn't have to use any of the high
56:49leverage relievers if you're the
56:51Rockies. I agree. This is if the Rockies
56:53are going to win one more game this
56:54season, it's this. And uh I think
56:56there's value with getting one and a
56:57half on the road, you get you force the
56:59White Socks have to beat you by margin
57:01in eight at bat. So, yeah, Rockies plus
57:03one and a half makes sense here to me.
57:07All right, we are at the end of the show
57:09and we got to get off because I do
57:11believe the college football folks are
57:13coming up next. Um, we extended the
57:16double play package so you can still get
57:17two of the three guys that you see on
57:19the screen at a discounted rate. Um,
57:22take advantage of that. I believe we've
57:24now pushed that to October 4th, so you
57:27can use it through the first round of
57:28the playoffs as well. Uh, so yeah, and
57:31as Brian pointed out yesterday, if
57:32there's a day where there's no plays,
57:35um, it just pushes you forward. You're
57:36not going to lose a day because there's
57:39no games on Monday. So you you use it
57:40today, you've guaranteed yourself uh
57:43that first day of the playoffs on
57:45Tuesday uh as part of the double play
57:47package as well. I'm going to go
57:49Diamondbacks plus 101. Tokyo Brand is
57:52going Guardians minus 110 and Brian is
57:54on Cardinals first five half a run plus
57:58105. So that's your three-teamer for
58:00today. Guardians minus 110, Diamondbacks
58:03plus 101. Those are full game sides. And
58:05then Brian's going with a first five
58:07side on the Cardinals plus a half a run
58:10plus 105. The next time we see you guys
58:13will be Tuesday to kick off the
58:15playoffs. So enjoy your weekend. Enjoy
58:17the rest of the games for the regular
58:18season. We'll be back on Tuesday morning
58:21for the first playoff show.
58:23>> Tokyo Brand's going to do a Sunday show
58:24on his channel, so check that out. And
58:26Total Bases will be back on Tuesday to
58:28kick off the playoffs. We'll see you
58:30guys then.