LIVE MLB Betting Picks Today ⚾ Wednesday Odds, Props & Best Bets | Total Bases 9/23

0:00All

0:03right, welcome in. It is time for Total

0:05Bases. It is Wednesday. We've got some

0:08day baseball once again. We have 16

0:11games. Well, we were supposed to have 16

0:12games yesterday, but there was a a rain

0:14out, so we're back with a double header

0:16today. Uh, and a loaded slate. Brian,

0:18I'm going to come to you first. How was

0:20your Tuesday?

0:22>> It was good. I uh easily won my uh White

0:26Sox over. Was that 20 straight now after

0:28a day off when uh

0:30>> I think it's 19 straight. 19 or 20

0:32straight.

0:33>> Yeah. Yeah. It's just it's been amazing.

0:36And uh they almost blew it. But Kansas

0:39City comes up with 11. You tell me

0:41Kansas City is going to score 11 runs in

0:43that game. I've been very happy to play

0:45them. But no, the White Socks won and uh

0:48Cleveland won. But uh yes, and we had

0:51our uh 4% play on the Phillies

0:55yesterday. I thought they were going to

0:56blow it. They although they never was

0:59trailing were trailing the entire game,

1:01but we had the Phillies as our 4% play

1:04and uh that continues

1:08the terrific run we've been on. I just

1:10checked today. We're all really hot

1:12right now. I think both of you guys are

1:13number one and number two in uh in

1:16baseball. I'm number one overall the

1:18last 30 days in all sports. So, uh yeah,

1:21can't complain at all.

1:24Yeah, it's going well. Tokyo Brandon,

1:26how was your Tuesday?

1:29>> Couldn't have been better. I uh ran the

1:31board in MLB, 4-0, and then I won my 5%

1:35play in Asian, which was Yomi Giants,

1:37and then I won two more Asian. So, I'm

1:41on a 16-2 overall run,

1:44>> plus 111 units on the year. So, feeling

1:48good. Uh quite the contrast from two

1:50weeks ago when I was down in the dumps.

1:52So yeah, recovered from that and then

1:55some. So

1:56>> yeah, when when you get on the show and

1:59you fully admit that you were losing, I

2:01mean that that's

2:02>> that was the way to do it. And look at

2:05the way you bounce back. Yeah. So uh

2:07that's why I like doing this show

2:08because

2:09>> we don't uh we don't lie to anybody. We

2:12don't uh

2:13>> Yep.

2:14>> Yeah. Very transparent on this on this

2:17entire network.

2:19>> Right now I like being asked how was

2:20your day yesterday. I didn't like it two

2:22weeks ago.

2:26>> Yeah, I uh I can't complain either.

2:29Perfect day for me. I had two I had two

2:31plays um two Major League Baseball

2:33plays, 5enter and a 4enter. The 5enter

2:36was the White Socks. It just doesn't

2:38really get much easier than that. Um

2:41only really got interesting at the end

2:43there because they were trying to

2:44probably save a couple bullpen arms.

2:46Maybe we'll bring that up today. Um, I

2:48wanted to go last because that's kind of

2:49gonna be my segue into uh it's going to

2:53be my segue into our first game because

2:56the White Socks won, Brian. Um, the

2:58Guardians can't even with a nice win on

3:01the road uh can't seem to pull away. We

3:03still have a division race in the AL

3:05Central and um it's, you know, going to

3:08probably continue into the weekend. Uh

3:11because the Guardians, while they have

3:12the oneame lead, um have the tougher

3:15schedule without a doubt. I mean, the

3:16White Socks get to play the Royals for

3:18two more games and then they get a home

3:20series with the Rockies. So, if you're

3:22the Guardians, you kind of have to be

3:25sitting there thinking, um, you know, we

3:28we there's not much room for error,

3:30right? Because the White Socks, you have

3:32to look at their schedule and think

3:33they're probably going to finish the

3:35season with a winning record from this

3:37point forward, which means the Guardians

3:40are going to have to do that as well

3:41with just a oneame lead in the division.

3:43And as you've pointed out on the show

3:45the past couple days, they don't have

3:46the tiebreaker. So, it really is

3:48imperative that the Guardians continue

3:50to win their games. Brian, that had a

3:53little bit of a playoff deal last night

3:54at Fenway. Just the way the game played

3:56out, Guardians getting the big hit. They

3:59win the game three-2. How do you feel

4:01about your Cleveland Guardians at Fenway

4:04Park tonight?

4:05>> Yeah, the Guardians in the White Socks

4:08basically because of the tiebreaker,

4:09they're they're basically even with five

4:11games to go. Um the loss by the Rangers

4:15actually helped them because now the

4:17Rangers and uh in the Astros, I know

4:19you're rooting for the Astros. I believe

4:20in that. Um but uh they're they're still

4:24three games out. So now with five games

4:26left and your closest competitors three

4:28games out, uh it's pretty good chance

4:31that both the White Socks and the

4:32Guardians will make the playoffs here.

4:34The big deal is whoever wins the

4:37division gets a buy in the first round.

4:39And I was reading an article um last

4:42night. I pay for a lot of a lot of

4:44independent writers and some really good

4:47ones out there. and they talked about uh

4:50what was going to happen here and uh

4:53with with that going on and to win the

4:55division means that either the Y the

4:59Yankees and the White Socks are going

5:01who are clearly the better teams over

5:03the Guardians and the White or the White

5:06Sox are going to have to pay that extra

5:09round or whoever wins this uh America

5:12League Central gets that off. So, uh,

5:15that's a big deal and, uh, I'm I'm very

5:18confident both these teams will make the

5:19playoffs, but to win the division is a

5:22huge deal. That means you will not have

5:25to play, um, either the Yankees or the

5:28Red Sox in an additional game, uh, an

5:31additional series. So, yeah, that it's

5:33something that's going on that's very

5:34important here. We're looking at the

5:35line on today's game. Griffin's going

5:39for Cleveland against Gray for Boston.

5:42Uh Griffin the lefty and Gray the

5:44righty. We're looking at basically a 130

5:46favorite right now for Boston. Total six

5:48and a half slightly to the over. Very

5:51similar to yesterday when I talked about

5:53the weather.

5:55Um didn't mention the rain out. Didn't

5:57know we were going to get that. But the

5:59wind is blowing in at a lot of places.

6:02Uh especi Wrigley Field is the big one.

6:04It's blowing straight in. Not the

6:06hardest, but it's they're expected 24%

6:09less runs there. at Yankee Stadium, it

6:11is blowing in pretty heavily uh straight

6:13in at 18% less than normal. So, uh other

6:17than basically Center Health Park and

6:20Coors Field where it always seems to be

6:21blowing out, uh those two places are the

6:24only good offensive offensive ballparks

6:27today. So, if you're looking to play

6:29overs, take a quick look and make sure

6:31you do like that over. Um Foster Griffin

6:36has not had to face Boston all season

6:38long. I mean, if you take a look at um

6:41his splits on the season,

6:44um he's, you know, he obviously pitched

6:46for two different home parks, but uh

6:48he's slightly better better at home. Uh

6:51but if you take a look at his advanced

6:52numbers, his advanced numbers show that

6:54he's been very good on the road and

6:56actually probably should deserve

6:57something better on the road. He's got a

6:583.92 RA, but he his advanced numbers

7:02other than batting average, uh he's been

7:04better on the road. Uh take a look at

7:07his game logs. is a 53 on the season,

7:09which is very good. Um, but take a look

7:12at some of the teams that he's played

7:14recently. He last time out against the

7:16White Sox, he had a 48game score.

7:18Against Baltimore, he had a 15. Against

7:21Detroit, 49. Now, those are three

7:23straight games under his season average,

7:26which shows that maybe he's getting a

7:27little bit tired. He's he's got 166 and

7:30two-thirds innings so far this year. And

7:32really the teams that he has played

7:34lately, the White Socks, Baltimore,

7:36Detroit, Kansas City, Colorado, San

7:38Francisco, Detroit, the Mets, not the

7:42best hitting teams in in uh in baseball.

7:45And Boston clearly, especially in this

7:47ballpark, can hit a little bit. So, I

7:49think he's going to have some troubles

7:50in this one. I kind of prefer Boston. Uh

7:54Sunny Gray is been there, done that.

7:57He's been very good. He's as good on the

8:00road as he is at home. He's actually

8:02kind of struggles last couple times,

8:03three, four times out at home. Um, but I

8:07like the situation for them. Cleveland,

8:09as I mentioned, the bullpen yesterday.

8:11Uh, they had to use their best two

8:13relievers and if you watch the game,

8:16they weren't quite as effective as they

8:18had been in the past. They now had to

8:20use Kate Smith and Hunter Gatis three to

8:23last five days. Um, Gatis blew the save

8:27yesterday. They had to use Sroski.

8:29Although I really like Sabroski, he

8:31hadn't pitched in the last four or five

8:32days before that. So, I'm a little bit

8:35concerned about K Smith if they if they

8:37bring him back again today, his uh

8:40fourth day, fourth game in six days.

8:43I don't think they I don't think they're

8:44going to do that. Although, as much as

8:46the game means, uh so the bullpen

8:49advantage, I think, goes to Boston this

8:51one. Starting pitcher advantage goes to

8:53Boston. The need goes to Cleveland

8:55because Boston's pretty much stuck where

8:57they're at. But um I still like Boston

9:01slightly in this game. If I get this lot

9:03a little bit cheaper, it may be a play

9:05that I would consider.

9:08>> Yeah, Tokyo Brandon, yesterday you said

9:10you thought the Guardians were a better

9:11team than the Red Sox. Well, they

9:12certainly were yesterday. Uh got the

9:14win. Uh I think recently you could make

9:17a case that they're playing better ball.

9:18They've won six straight. Um, I mean,

9:21all big, you know, granted some of the

9:24opponents weren't as good, but they're

9:26doing what they did last year. They are

9:28winning the games down the stretch when

9:30it counts to try to close out this

9:32division. So, brings up a very, it

9:35really is an interesting game because

9:36they've won six straight. Without a

9:38doubt, they need this game, but like

9:40Brian said, they are running thin on

9:42leverage bullpen arms, and that's not

9:44where you necessarily want to be when

9:46you're on the road at Fenway Park. So,

9:47Guardians, Red Sox to you. How do you

9:49see this one?

9:50>> Very true. Uh I do think if these teams

9:53played a first round playoff series, the

9:55Guardians would win it. They're the

9:56better team in my opinion, but we can

9:58debate that later. That's fine. Boston

10:02coldest second coldest bats in all of in

10:04all of MLB. Uh absolutely ice cold at

10:08the plate right now. Uh yes, Foster

10:11Griffin is not as good of a pitcher as

10:12Sunny Gray. I've been backing Sunny Gray

10:14all season. Actually, if you look at

10:16Sunny Gay's last two starts, he's given

10:18up 33. Pretty consistent. Foster Griffin

10:20had one blow up. I think he gave eight

10:22runs to pretty mediocre team. Uh, and

10:26then the rest of his starts are 22

10:28two22. So, these pitchers are pretty

10:30consistent. I agree with Brian though

10:32that Foster Griffin might be starting to

10:33get a little fatigued. Um, Sunny Gray is

10:37is an absolute stud pitcher. I mean, uh,

10:40he doesn't get enough credit in my

10:42opinion. Uh, very good pitcher. I I

10:45think this is going to be a very tight

10:47game. I I don't see Boston scoring a

10:49lot. Um and Cleveland's got the better

10:53bullpen, but Brian's right. Boston's

10:55bullpin is in better shape. So, looks

10:58like a tight game to me. I I looked at

10:59the plus one and a half, it's minus 200.

11:02Not really playable. But the first five

11:05plus the half run for Cleveland is only

11:07minus 125. If I were to play it, I would

11:10play that. but kind of dangerous because

11:13going to be really hard to score on

11:15Sunny Gray here. Um, so that's what I

11:18would play if I were to play it, but I

11:20probably won't.

11:22>> Yeah, you know, uh, I based on the

11:25matchup, Tokyo Brandon, you're right.

11:26The Red Sox have not really hit of late.

11:29I I was going to start leaning toward

11:31the under six and a half. Like, they're

11:33really not giving you uh they're really

11:35not giving you much of a chance uh to

11:37play an under. I think I think if you

11:39handicap this game out, under makes

11:41sense. Like it could be another

11:43lowscoring game. Uh but they're not

11:45giving you much of a chance to play the

11:46under here at six and a half. Brian, I'm

11:49with you. I I'll move it along to to a

11:51second game. I'm with you. Like the the

11:53Red Sox are situationally makes sense,

11:57but there's just something about the

11:58Guardians in this last week of the

12:00season. I keep thinking back to last

12:01year when it was like they they were

12:04they you kept expecting them to lose

12:06one. you expected them to lose one and

12:07they just didn't. Um I just they could

12:10they could push the right buttons here

12:12and win again. So I'm I think I'm out on

12:13this game. This was uh this is the ESPN

12:16National TV game at 700 p.m. Eastern. Um

12:18but yeah, it's uh maybe an in-game under

12:21if if if there's an early scoring, but

12:23then again, you have to worry about the

12:24bullpens. That's just a uh a tricky

12:26game. So I'm going to move on.

12:28>> It'll be great to watch. Maybe not so

12:30great to bet.

12:30>> Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Tokyo Gr

12:32what what really one of the the one game

12:34>> one of a couple games last night

12:36>> that really had like a playoff like feel

12:39to it. A lot of the other ones were kind

12:42of, you know, I I spent most of my night

12:44watching the White Socks. It was 14 to4.

12:46I mean, it was just like, but that

12:48Guardians Red Sox game defin

12:51>> postseason feel.

12:53>> Freeird member for nine months. He says,

12:55"Thank you. Great cap uh great cappers."

12:57Uh Freeird, thank you for uh your

13:00continued support. You're in here every

13:01day as are a lot of you guys. We very

13:03much appreciate that. I got

13:07I'm laughing at Adam because the GI he

13:09loves the Giants so much and Jackson

13:11Dark got hurt. I'm not a Giants fan. I

13:13don't know where that comes from. Not a

13:15Giants fan. The one nice thing about

13:17being like a better I listen I'm a fan

13:21of the Sienna Saints because I went to

13:22college there. Other than that, I'm not

13:24a fan of any of these teams. I don't

13:26really care. I gotta be honest. I hope I

13:28don't like to see anyone get hurt.

13:30>> Yeah.

13:31>> But I don't care. I just don't. It's one

13:33of the better things about growing up in

13:35Albany, New York. We don't have we have

13:36no pro sports teams. So, you know,

13:39that's uh

13:39>> NFL.

13:42We just don't Yeah, I don't I don't know

13:43where you get that from, but uh Giants

13:47might be undervalued with Jamus this

13:48week. We'll see. All right, let's go

13:50back to the chat. Let's go to So, I saw

13:53my guy R. Reynolds in here. He I need

13:56you to bail me out on some of these

13:58futures I've added because uh I tailed

14:00him on that Astros five to one to win a

14:02division back whenever we placed that I

14:05think a couple months ago at this point

14:07sometime in August and uh that's my only

14:10hope of uh getting out of some of these

14:11future bets um without losing money. So

14:14shout out to R. Reynolds. I know he's in

14:16here somewhere. I saw him earlier. Shout

14:17out to him because that was his play. He

14:19was the one that pointed that out. I

14:21said, "Yeah, you know what? Five to one

14:23uh makes a ton of sense right there." Um

14:25and and I tailed them. We talked about

14:27it on the show and uh now I need that

14:29because some of these other ones I've

14:31lost. One of the ones that I'm going to

14:32lose money on is of course the Seattle

14:34Mariners who had a very easy schedule

14:37down the stretch. And as Brian Leonard,

14:40Brian, you were right about that. You're

14:42like this is just not a good baseball

14:44team. Doesn't matter who they're

14:46playing. They just have no shot. And you

14:48were right. They have no shot. the

14:50Mariners. You know, ESPN probably

14:52thought they cooked a little bit putting

14:54this game on national TV tonight. They

14:56probably thought they were going to get

14:57the AL West being decided at 1000 PM

15:00Eastern on the on ESPN on national TV

15:03and the Mariners now have no chance.

15:05That being said, the Astros are still

15:06playing for something and they got right

15:09a little bit with a seven nothing win

15:11last night. Brian, Astros, Mariners, the

15:13other national TV game. Mark Lambert

15:15saying Astros plus money. Do you see it

15:18the same way? Yeah, we got PCO going

15:20against Kirby. And uh Kirby's about a

15:23one

15:26140 favorite or so. Uh seven and a half

15:28to the over. I I couldn't lay 140 on

15:31Seattle. I don't care who they've got on

15:33the mound right now. Uh it's not a team

15:35I'm looking to back. Um they're they're

15:39they have not been something's going on

15:40in that locker room. We probably will

15:42find out in the offseason.

15:44Um maybe they need a coaching change.

15:47Who knows? But um they've got a lot more

15:49talent than what they've shown this

15:50year. Um

15:53Dalton Baro is uh got hurt. He didn't

15:56play the last two days. So we I don't

15:59know if that's that big of a difference.

16:01They've they've got they brought out

16:02Bryce Matthews who I like anyway. Uh and

16:06he's uh been playing center field the

16:08last couple of games. I I actually like

16:10to see what he's got. Um they I think

16:13they need to give him some at bats. Uh

16:16but yeah, it's a you've got Pekco on the

16:18mound. He's rated number 283 on the

16:21season over at the uh Pangraph site. So

16:24he hasn't got a lot of a lot of time to

16:27to pitch. On the at home, he's got a

16:302.63 RA on the road, 4.80.

16:33But um on the road, he's helping the

16:36opposition to 180, but they hit him

16:38pretty pretty hard, slugging 480. Uh his

16:41game log comes in at 41. He has not uh

16:44been great, but it's limited spaces and

16:48he's we'll see what he's done. He he's

16:52he struggled originally, but his last

16:53three starts he's only given up one

16:55earned run in any any of those games. He

16:57Kansas City 5 and 2/3, Tampa Bay 5 and

17:002/3, Arizona 4 and a3. So, he's starting

17:04to round into into form here. Um his RA

17:07is only 3.77. His expected numbers are

17:10higher than that. So, um, he's not as

17:13good as what he's looked the last three

17:14games, but he seems to be putting it

17:16together a little bit. And, uh, you

17:19know, when we take a look at the bullpen

17:20for Houston, uh, they're in pretty good

17:24shape in that regard, too. They haven't

17:25used Hater all week. They haven't used

17:27Zrau since, uh, Saturday. They did had

17:30to go pretty heavy yesterday on Susa. He

17:32went 40 pitches and Yola, if I'm

17:35pronouncing that correctly, went 33 and

17:38Vanway went 25. So the lesser arms got

17:40to be used yesterday. They did have

17:42Monday off. So you're going to get the

17:45better arms coming out of the bullpen.

17:46Blue ball 10 pitches yesterday. Hadn't

17:48pitched the last two. So uh I like the

17:51bullpen situation here for the Astros.

17:54Starting pitcher a little bit

17:55questionable in that regard. From a

17:57hitting standpoint, the number two

17:59through the number five guys are all

18:02hitting in the top 75 over the last

18:04week. They're hitting pretty well. Uh

18:06Seattle's a team right now that I don't

18:08want much to do with. So I I kind of

18:11like Houston in this one. I I'm in kind

18:13of a bit of an agreement here.

18:16>> Yeah. I mean, listen, the matchup is

18:18what it is, and you're obviously going

18:20to tweak numbers based on starting

18:22pitching. We know that we handicap

18:24baseball every day for six months. The

18:26starting pitchers have to be factored

18:27in. But this is one of those scenarios

18:29where like I I simply don't understand

18:31how you can make the Mariners as big of

18:34a favorite as they're they're making

18:35them here. Especially when it's almost

18:37like it's almost like they should be

18:39getting penalized a little bit in the in

18:41the by the oddsmakers for being quote

18:43unquote out of it while the Astros quote

18:46unquote need to win. Like the books tend

18:49to bake that in a little bit to the

18:51number. Like you should be getting a

18:53worse number on the Astros because of

18:55the situation where they need to win and

18:57the Mariners have nothing to play for

18:59yet. You pull up your book this morning

19:02and you see the Mariners this big

19:03favorite. They've done it all year. I

19:05don't get it. So Tokyo Briden Mariners

19:07Astros. Um are you getting are you

19:09biting on that Astros value?

19:12>> Quick promo time. Uh double play and

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19:37All of us are winning. All of us are on

19:39fire. All of us are plus units in 2026.

19:42So, you can't really go wrong with any

19:44of us. So, uh, I have a play up in MLB

19:48already today and I will have Asian

19:49baseball out later on. I'm sure my

19:52colleagues here will also have something

19:54in several sports uh, to come and they

19:57can expound on that in a moment. Let me

19:59get to this game. My first impression

20:02was uh, if the Astros if this is all

20:06they got to throw out there with their

20:08playoff hopes on the line, they're not

20:10going to last very long in the playoffs.

20:12And then I dug a little deeper and you

20:14know, Pickle's not doing that that

20:17terrible. I mean, he's not going deep

20:18into games, but he's actually got pretty

20:20decent numbers. Uh Kirby's overrated. I

20:23mean, flat out, he's given up 14 earned

20:26runs in his last four starts. The guy's

20:27not a very good pitcher. He's overrated

20:29as hell. And the books are giving him

20:33way too much credit. So, I kind of agree

20:36the Astros are the side here. Um,

20:39fighting for something means something.

20:41And I think Kirby's going to be one of

20:42those guys who uh if he gets into any

20:45kind of trouble or his pitch count gets

20:47into the 60s or something, they're just

20:48going to pull him right away because

20:49they have no reason to risk anything for

20:52him. They they'll they'll have him back

20:54next season. But uh he's overrated in my

20:58opinion and they're getting they're

21:00giving I've mentioned this on shows

21:01before, the books overrate pitchers way

21:05too much because starting pitchers are a

21:07factor in the game of course because

21:08they touch the ball more than anyone

21:10else. But

21:12the numbers are based a little too much

21:14on starting pitching and I think that's

21:16what we're seeing here. Um, and the

21:18books love Kirby a little too much in my

21:20opinion. So Astros are nothing for me as

21:22well.

21:24>> Kirby's a little bit of a diva. You're

21:26not wrong about that. Like I the the

21:28thing that comes to mind for me was when

21:30like he got taken out early in his

21:33career. He got taken out after like six

21:34innings and he was like I did enough.

21:37Like it's almost like, you know, there's

21:38there's times where I could see Tokyo

21:41Brandon. I could totally see him kind of

21:42like rolling into this start annoyed

21:45that he still has to throw a baseball

21:47one more time this year with the season

21:50being over. The Astros torched him back

21:52on August 14th. Um, five runs on eight

21:55hits, four and two/3. Yeah, I I Kirby

21:59the the thing with Kirby is when when

22:01you see him put it all together, you you

22:03understand the upside is there, but like

22:06you're right, like we're we're on a full

22:08season this year. Expected batting

22:10average is in the bottom 20% in the

22:12league. His strikeout weight rate is way

22:14down. So, while he still has the good

22:17fast ball and you know, really like he

22:20definitely has plus stuff, his if if

22:22harnessed his he could be an ace, right?

22:25Like I mean his stuff is that high-end.

22:28It just been going on for most of the

22:30second half now. So I I just don't know

22:31why you would trust Kirby to come out

22:33and be his best self here. And this line

22:35Brian is telling is is sort of like

22:39they're pricing this as if you're going

22:40to get the best of of George Kirby. And

22:42I just don't know that's going to be the

22:43case here.

22:44>> Yeah, Kirby is uh his last eight starts,

22:48seven of them have been league average

22:51or worse. He's he he's got a 50 game

22:53score on the season which means he's an

22:55average hit pitcher and he's not being

22:58priced here as an average pitcher. Now I

23:00will say

23:01>> it's the fourth time he's played Houston

23:03this year and the first two times he

23:05really shut him out. But as you

23:07mentioned last time he gave up five

23:08earned runs in four and two/3 innings.

23:10Normally you see a bounce back. If if

23:13that was your worst start against this

23:15team, you would think the next time

23:18would be a bounceback, but they're

23:20playing without Munoz, their closer.

23:22He's hurt. Um they're shutting him down

23:24for the rest of the season. As opposed

23:27to uh the pitcher who went yesterday for

23:31Seattle,

23:32um he came out, he's already come out

23:34and said, "I'm taking my spot next

23:36Sunday." He he goes, "That's my spot in

23:38the lineup. I'm coming out and I'm

23:39pitching." And they asked him why the

23:41season's over. He says, he says, "People

23:43pay me to pitch. Fans pay me to pitch.

23:46I'm going to be out on the on the mound

23:49next week on Sunday." And he says,

23:52"That's just the way it is. That's what

23:53I get paid for." That's a different

23:55mentality than what Kirby has had. And

23:58and I don't I don't know him personally,

23:59obviously. Uh but I'm in kind of an

24:02agreement with you that I I don't think

24:05he's the kind of guy in this kind of

24:08situation that you want to put on the

24:10mound. So yeah, if you're on Houston, I

24:12think you got the right side there. And

24:14to be honest with you, I would jump on

24:17that as soon as possible because I can't

24:19see that line lasting. Um, we're looking

24:22at, you know, you look at the uh the

24:24public books uh around the country, they

24:27always jack up the favorites a little

24:29bit. The sharper books have have uh

24:32smaller numbers on the favorites. So if

24:34you like Houston, go out there and get

24:36them now because I don't think that

24:37line's going to last.

24:39>> Yeah. I I would agree with that too. I

24:41don't know if I can. There's just

24:43something my gut is telling me not to do

24:45it. I gotta be honest. I hate it's not

24:46like that's a terrible handicap, but

24:48it's like my my gut is just telling me

24:51don't get sucked in with the Astros here

24:54for whatever reason, but it's like yes,

24:56without a doubt, Brian, if you like the

24:58Astros, I think you should get on it now

25:00because I I'd be really really surprised

25:02if you don't see Astros money um as the

25:05day goes on. Um, real quick, my gut is

25:08telling me that I'm I've got another NFL

25:11winner and I put it up to 5% play. Um,

25:14so I'll promo promote that real quick.

25:16The other thing I want to touch on very

25:17quickly is from now till the end of

25:19September, W Talkus put a special on my

25:21page. It's the rest of my NFL season.

25:23It's the biggest discount you're going

25:24to get on it the rest of the way. We're

25:27only putting that up through the end of

25:28the month. Uh, and they're throwing in

25:30college football free. Uh, so that's on

25:32my page. I have yet to lose a bet in the

25:34NFL regular season. I'm 4 and 0. If you

25:36count the preseason, I'm eight and two

25:38and that's number one on the site. I've

25:40got a 5enter up. Both of my 5% NFLs have

25:43won by like 20 points. So hopefully

25:46we're going to do the same thing this

25:48week. That is on my page right now. Uh

25:51John John says Trigg is a closeted Bills

25:55fan 100%. You're kind of not wrong about

25:57that. Listen, when you live in central

25:58New York, you get sucked in. I live I've

26:00lived in central New York now for a few

26:02years. You get sucked in. I get sucked

26:04into the Syracuse and the Bills. It's

26:06all anyone roots for here. I do want to

26:08see this Bills team win a Super Bowl. I

26:10really do like Josh Allen. So, yeah, I

26:12I'll I'll take the bait on that. You're

26:14right. I I'm I'm I am rooting for the

26:16Bills. I have been for a few years. So,

26:18uh you know, but again, I have no

26:20problem betting against them if the uh

26:22if the spot is right.

26:23>> He likes disappointment.

26:26>> Yeah, that's moved to Cleveland.

26:30>> I know. Well, at least they don't have a

26:33shot, so they're not expecting.

26:35>> Yeah, you're right. At least the Bills

26:37are going to disappoint in like the AFC

26:38Championship game or something.

26:39>> The Bills have talent. They're like the

26:41Padres's. They have the talent, but

26:42they're never going to win anything.

26:45>> We'll see.

26:46>> All right, let's go back to Alex Rand.

26:48He wants to talk Mets and Rangers.

26:50Thanks for the donation, Alex. Much

26:52appreciated. And uh he says, Tokyo

26:55Brandon, he says, "Any thoughts on this

26:56Mets Rangers coin flip?" Okay, so he's

27:00calling it a coin flip. We got Mets who

27:02have been out of it for a while, but as

27:04we've pointed out on the show, have

27:06played very good, meaningless baseball,

27:08and we've got the Rangers who are in a

27:11battle with the Astros uh for that

27:14American League West title. So, looks

27:16like we've got Nolan Mlan. Uh this is

27:19our weekly, I think, Cody Bradford spot

27:22where they decide to scratch him and

27:23move him back a day. It's now happened

27:24two weeks in a row. Uh so, who do you

27:27got here? Rangers Mets. anything for you

27:29in this one. Tokyo Brandon,

27:31>> similar impression here. If your playoff

27:34hopes are on the line and this is the

27:36best thing you got to throw out there,

27:37your playoffs are going to end very

27:40quickly. Um, Bradford's not a good

27:42pitcher and he I I don't know if he

27:46belongs in Major League Baseball right

27:47now. Uh, Mets I have pretty much bullpen

27:52and hitting almost neck andneck for

27:54these two teams. So given the motivation

27:57factor uh the urgency factor uh and

28:02we've said this on previous shows the

28:04players are always playing uh except the

28:06the the the mega stars like Mookie Bets

28:09or someone who knows they're going to

28:10get signed but the players are playing

28:12hard. It's it's the point in the urgency

28:16uh point there is how the game is

28:18managed by the manager. Um, so

28:22given that the tech the the Rangers are

28:25definitely gonna want to win this game.

28:27They're kind of hanging on to hope here,

28:30but Bradford's just awful. I I have

28:33these two teams neck andneck except for

28:35starting pitching. Nolan Mlan's great,

28:37but again, he's their he's probably

28:41their ace. I guess we can consider him

28:43their ace. and uh they don't want

28:45anything to happen to him and probably

28:47get pulled after 50 or 60 pitches I

28:49imagine because they're looking to next

28:52season. They just want to keep his arm

28:53warm and these guys are warriors. So,

28:55you know, you get to major league

28:57baseball, you're a warrior no matter

28:58what. Even Cody Bradford is a warrior.

29:01though. Um

29:03I you know I I would say Texas wins

29:08though because they got they're going to

29:11manage it like they need to win it and

29:13the the the Mets are not. Uh Nolan Mlan

29:15will probably look good for as long as

29:17he's in there, but he's probably going

29:19to be one of those guys who like like uh

29:22Miserowski get get pulled after three or

29:25four innings and then uh it's a bullpen

29:27game and it's probably not going to be

29:28their leverage arm. So, it probably is

29:31going to be Texas, but I'm not going to

29:32put money on it.

29:35>> Brian, they are the Rangers again, once

29:37again, have not officially announced

29:39this other than commenting that Cody

29:41Bradford would be the starter today. I I

29:44just have to point it out. Two weeks in

29:45a row, they said he was going to start

29:47and then they pushed him back a day. Uh

29:49last week was, you know, the one where I

29:51mean, we were uh they kind of pulled the

29:54they kind of pulled a fast one on

29:55everyone and threw Deg Grom in that

29:57spot. uh was a game that we actually

29:59talked about on the show that really did

30:01impact the total. So, I guess we're

30:03assuming it's going to be Bradford. Uh

30:06it's MLAN for the Mets. Do you have

30:07anything in Rangers Mets?

30:09>> Yeah, that cost me a 2% play. Um but um

30:14yeah, I I didn't expect them to do that,

30:16but they did. And uh the reason why

30:19they're throwing Bradford out there,

30:20he's a lefty. They're trying to throw

30:21him a little bit off if they do if they

30:23do that. But the game as as TB was

30:26saying, yeah, it's uh for for a team

30:29that needs the victories, it's kind of

30:32sucks that they've got to use Bradford

30:34out there. But Mlan's been very good on

30:37the road. He's, you know, the line is

30:39basically somewhat of a pick them. We're

30:41looking at about a 108 either way here.

30:44Uh total of seven and a half. But Mlan's

30:46been great on the road. He's got a two

30:50uh 2.89 RA. is a a batting average 197.

30:55His WBA 262. He's been fantastic on the

30:58road this season.

30:59>> Take a look at his game scores. He's at

31:0157 on the season.

31:03>> Uh threw a 58 last time out. Uh he had

31:06been very consistent and then he went up

31:08against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium

31:09and they lit him up and they kept him in

31:11there a little bit longer than what they

31:13should have, but that hurt his numbers.

31:15But, you know, you take a look at his RA

31:17on the season, 3.18. His expected

31:19numbers are slightly higher, but very

31:21good. But, uh, if you're a Mets fan, I

31:23don't know if you're happy today

31:24because, uh,

31:27Devin Williams is back on the team. Um,

31:31>> he's, uh, they brought him back, um,

31:34from the IIL and we will see what

31:36happens. They said right now they're not

31:38going to use him in high pressure

31:39situations, but Sanga's pitched to it

31:41the last three days, including 19

31:43pitches yesterday. So, I don't know if

31:45they trust Sangan back to back. So, they

31:47may end up having to use Williams here.

31:50Uh, Nunes has pitched three out of the

31:52last five. He's been really good for

31:54them. So, I I I like the Mets situation.

31:57If you take a look at their hitting,

31:58they haven't been bad in that regard.

32:01Uh, but I don't I don't know if I could

32:04I could take them in this price range

32:06here. Uh, the Rangers are a team that,

32:09yeah, they're they're a league average

32:10team. They have not played well. Uh

32:13they're they're they're could be the

32:16worst whoever comes out of this West

32:18division could be the worst team to make

32:21the playoffs in in uh the history of

32:23baseball. Uh possibly possibly I think

32:27the worst team that ever made it won

32:28like 80 games and wins like 80 and 82

32:31something like that. So we'll see what

32:33happens. But LA Latz is fully available.

32:36Garcia pitched three the last four. He

32:38won't be able to make it. So, in the

32:40bullpen, they're not in bad shape, but

32:41I'm I'm not that big of a fan. Uh

32:44Bradford on the season, he's at 281. Let

32:47me just take a quick look at uh the last

32:50time he pitched. Uh Bradford has not

32:55pitched in at least the last week here.

32:57So, being pushed back twice like this, I

33:00don't know how you can go more than

33:02maybe an inning with them if they do use

33:03them. uh because you know as TB will say

33:07these guys they get into a routine and

33:10he's clearly not in a routine right now.

33:12So I think it's dangerous for them to

33:14put him out there at all at this point.

33:15Maybe put him in later in the game if

33:17you got a lead or something but uh I

33:20don't know. I don't know. Texas has got

33:23um Kumar Rocker Kamar Rocker scheduled

33:26to pitch tomorrow. Um McKenzie Gore

33:30special schedules to pitch Sunday. I I

33:33don't know. I don't I don't know what

33:34they're going to do, but uh I do like uh

33:37I do like the Mets starter. We'll see

33:39what it goes from there, but I don't

33:40know if I can get there in the game.

33:42>> What a horrible rotation.

33:44>> Yeah. Yeah, Brian, I'm with you. I think

33:46the Mets ju obviously have a starting

33:49pitching at Edge. Nolan, I take Nolan

33:51McClean up against most of, you know,

33:54pretty much anyone in the Rangers not

33:55named like Jacob Deg Grom at this point.

33:58Uh the Alex, your initial thought in my

34:00opinion was correct. I've got this one

34:02lined exactly where the books have it.

34:04I'm like minus 105 each way. The books

34:07are minus 105 each way. Uh the Mets have

34:10been playing really good meaningless

34:11baseball for over a month now. So I

34:13don't think it matters much that this

34:15game doesn't mean it much for them.

34:17They've they've it has they haven't

34:19played meaningful baseball in over a

34:20month. So I think they're just showing

34:22up to play the game like they would any

34:23other day. Uh probably a little pressure

34:26on the Rangers here, which I don't know

34:27is like the best thing. Like that the I

34:30think the Rangers are far worse team

34:32than the Astros for what it's worth. I I

34:34think even though they have the same

34:35record, uh the Astros are are a much

34:38better team in my opinion. Uh they had a

34:40lot of injuries early in the year. I

34:41think if the Astros didn't have two

34:43months of big-time injuries, um they

34:46would have won this division easily

34:47already. So, uh yeah, not much there to

34:50to get in with. Uh yeah, you you guys

34:53are finding the coin flip games. Brian,

34:54go ahead.

34:55>> I just wanted to point out uh either the

34:57people who are watching the show took

34:59our advice on Houston or it happened

35:02like I said it was, but um yeah, the

35:04line is line has gone down since uh when

35:07we talked about it five minutes ago. So,

35:09it's it's right across the board. So,

35:11>> I swear they're watching us.

35:13>> Yeah. Congratulations to anybody who got

35:14the better line. Um I'd like to be

35:17right. We called it. Now we just need to

35:19win the Houston just needs to win the

35:21game, but we got the better line.

35:24>> All right, thank well let's move it

35:26along. Uh Abbott Ham Lincoln donated to

35:30the show.

35:31>> Thank you very much.

35:34>> That's a love that appreciate the uh

35:37appreciate the donations to the show as

35:39always. They always go to to a charity

35:42that our home office works with and a

35:44good cause. So we very much appreciate

35:45it. Um does anyone I'll throw it out to

35:47you. Does anyone know what they want to

35:49use for their best bet? The parlay Tokyo

35:52Brandon, I'll I'll give it to you to

35:54give us a game.

35:55>> Uh, I'm going to go with the Marlins and

35:59Cubs game today. Um,

36:02that's where I'm going to go with my

36:04parlay league. I like the Cubs here. Uh,

36:06I like Gman. Uh, hasn't been quite

36:10himself. He's kind of mediocre off and

36:13on, but much better than uh Mr. Gusto.

36:16And Miami's been playing really horrible

36:18baseball. Um, I got Miami ranked

36:22basically mediocre at everything except

36:24starting pitcher. I got him ranked

36:25almost dead last. Uh, Gust is just

36:28horrible. I I I

36:31don't I mean one and five with a four

36:33plus RA. That RA is actually kind for

36:37how he's been pitching. So, uh, I think

36:40the Cubs are just going to smash Miami.

36:42Miami kind of had like a week or a week

36:45and a half ago, they kind of had some

36:47glimmer of hope and they were kind of

36:50doing well and then all of a sudden they

36:51just crashed and burned and they're just

36:54still going down and burning. So yeah,

36:56I'm going to take the Cubs here. I know

36:58the the line is a little iffy. What is

37:01it? 175 maybe, but that's all right.

37:04I'll use that for my parlay leg. I'm

37:05going to take the Cubs here.

37:09>> Brian, Cubs, Marlins to you. anything

37:11for you in this one?

37:12>> Yeah, they're more like a 170 right now.

37:15Maybe 172. Yeah, let's go with 172 on

37:18that. Uh 6 and a half to the over 22. Um

37:22Gusto's been pitching better, but he's

37:26still not an average major league

37:27pitcher. Uh Gausman, um

37:32being the veteran, I don't know how long

37:33they're going to stick with him in the

37:35lineup. Um they've got the playoffs to

37:37worry about. Uh Miami does not have that

37:40to worry about. Um so I I've got nothing

37:43in this game uh for myself. I do I am

37:47going to have a 5% play going today and

37:50uh we are 12 and six, 67% on our 5%s. 36

37:55and 16 um on fours and fives. So we've

37:58been very good on our best bets. If

38:01you've been following us, you know that.

38:02That's why we've been the number one

38:04handicapper in all sports the last 13

38:06plus months. So, we're in in line for a

38:08big 5% play. Uh, I will be writing that

38:11up in an hour or so. I want to check a

38:13few things, but keep in mind that will

38:16be going up on the site. Uh, but as for

38:18this game, I really don't have much on

38:20this one. Uh, what did you say that line

38:23was on the Cubs money line?

38:24>> Let's go 172.

38:28>> Yeah, I mean, listen, the Marlins

38:31obviously are out of it. Shawn Martin

38:33makes a good point here. He said, you

38:34know, the Cubs are kind of going through

38:35the motions yesterday. The game goes

38:37into extra innings. The the the Marlins

38:39have their big inning. Uh end up winning

38:41the game 8 to2.

38:44Like the the Cubs are obviously

38:46deserving favorites, I would say. Um you

38:49know, I I do think they show up to play

38:52at Wrigley. Uh great fan base. That's

38:55one of the you know, meaningless game

38:57doesn't matter. That's always a ballpark

38:58that you're going to get a great turnout

39:00from the fans. Doesn't matter if it's

39:01cold. Um, so yeah, I I guess I could see

39:04the Cubs bouncing back here from a from

39:06a numbers standpoint.

39:08My num my numbers show value on the

39:10Marlins, but that should be kind of

39:12obvious at this point. Um, that that

39:14that that would happen. Uh, but I think

39:16when you take into consideration the

39:18spot and stuff, like let's put it this

39:20way, I saw value on the Marlins. I in no

39:22way, shape, or form was I rushing to

39:24back the Marlins who are clearly just

39:27kind of playing out the string at this

39:28point as well. So again, hopefully for

39:31our sake and the parlay sake, coh Tokyo

39:33Brandon cashes with the uh with the

39:35cubbies here, but yeah, nothing for me

39:37here either.

39:38>> Note on that, my parlay legs have been

39:40pretty bad lately. So you can fade me if

39:44you want. My par I've been the parlay

39:46killer lately.

39:49>> Well, hey, we got Listen, we've got a

39:51few days. We've got an entire postseason

39:53to fix that. And when you're firing

39:55three-teamers, like a couple of them go

39:58your way and suddenly it's uh you know,

39:59it's a new ball game. So, we're going to

40:01play it out. We do uh we have we do need

40:03to hit one. Uh it's been a while. Let's

40:05put it that way. Think I think it's uh

40:08it's been a while. Uh but like I said,

40:09you know, we're firing three teamers

40:11that that have six to one big five six

40:13to1 odds. You run off a couple of them

40:15and suddenly uh you are back in the mix.

40:19So, uh there's a a we're going to do a

40:22quick promo here. Um, there is a graphic

40:24that we want to post on the screen that

40:26apparently I cannot find.

40:28>> I I I I I cannot find it. So, I'm hoping

40:31that someone jumps in on the back end

40:33and throws it on the screen because it

40:35is very important that we get a photo of

40:37us and sombrero and um and our records

40:41on the board today.

40:42>> Did you do that?

40:42>> And there we are.

40:44>> I did not because as I've been saying

40:45for the last hour, I don't see it. I

40:47don't know where it is. But here it is

40:50running in the back end and one of them

40:51>> our producer jumped in and threw that

40:53up. All right, cool.

40:56>> As you can see, guys, all three. As you

40:59can see, take it away. All three of all

41:01three of us are profitable in 2026. So,

41:04you can choose two of us

41:06>> uh and get three days all baseball, all

41:09access. Uh pretty much can't go wrong.

41:12Brian has a 5% up. I think Adam Oh,

41:14Adam's 5% is in football. But in any

41:17case, you you can't really go wrong. Uh

41:20and this deal only lasts for two more

41:22days. Uh midnight on the 24th, this deal

41:25is gone. So if you only like one of us,

41:27you can get a triple play, which is 6

41:29days of full access for the price of

41:32three, which is called a triple play. So

41:34go to wageralk.com, find any of our

41:36capper pages, click the double play or

41:39triple play, and you can have that deal.

41:44>> Okay. All right, let's get back to the

41:47games. Yep, that is up then. And Tokyo

41:49Brandon is right. One more two more days

41:51for the uh for the triple play. Uh it

41:54ends tomorrow. So yeah, you're gonna

41:56want to get you want to take advantage

41:57of that. Uh it's been the best deal all

42:00year. Um if you can get three for two

42:01days or I'm sorry, three two of us for

42:04three days discounted rate that ends

42:06tomorrow. So two more chances at the

42:08triple play. I don't have anything up

42:10yet for baseball today. I probably will.

42:12We are at the point in the year where

42:15in a lot of cases I want to see what

42:17teams are going to run out there for a

42:19lineup. And um so I I may be firing a

42:21little bit later the the next couple

42:23days, but I will be firing. Um Mr. Big

42:26Hands, he always listen, I will get you

42:29a thought at some point this week. We

42:32are in the playoffs. Um I my thought is

42:35Brian should get out and go to Las Vegas

42:37Ballpark because there's good baseball

42:38going on this week there. That's my

42:40thought. Brian, you gonna get out to Las

42:42Vegas Ballpark for uh for a game this

42:44week?

42:45>> Yeah, I actually thought about it. Uh

42:47the problem has been Cleveland is on uh

42:51the later games and my wife will not

42:54leave the house when the Indians are in

42:56uh I still call them the Indians uh or

42:59are in playoff contention. So, if I go,

43:01I may have to go by myself, but I've

43:02been wanting to go out there because uh

43:04yeah, they're in the they're in the

43:06league championship and they actually

43:08have the AAA championship in Vegas every

43:10year. Uh so, it's a lot of fun if you're

43:12a local law and it's it's actually

43:15>> cooling off a little bit this week.

43:17We're only in the 90s.

43:19>> Ryan married a winner. I mean, if you

43:21can get if you can find a lady who loves

43:23watching baseball, you have struck gold,

43:25my friend.

43:27>> I'm blessed. Yeah. So, no matter what,

43:30even if Vegas advances or they don't,

43:32Saturday night the AAA Championship

43:34game, International League versus PCL

43:36will be in Vegas. It's the quote unquote

43:39neutral site. You'll have the winner of

43:41Vegas Oklahoma City against the winner

43:43of Rochester Memphis. Mr. Big Hands, I

43:46will get you this week at some point. Uh

43:48I So, Vegas won last night. I want to

43:50see how the pitching lines up. I

43:52probably lean Oklahoma City uh in game

43:55two, but I got to see a number. Um so,

43:57yeah, that's Sorry. Sorry, I don't have

43:59something better for you there. Uh,

44:01we'll get back to it. So, here's here's

44:02I want to go to the other Chicago. Um,

44:05and you mentioned Brian, the Indians,

44:08and I was thinking about something when

44:10I was when I was watching the White

44:11Socks last night. Uh, really when I was

44:13doing my write up for the White Socks, a

44:155% play that won yesterday. Um, and I

44:19was thinking about the 2016 Cleveland

44:21Indians who came within inches of

44:24winning a World Series. Um, just I I

44:26hate to bring it up, the eye roll right

44:28there. I know it's a sore subject, but

44:31the reason I'm bringing it up is a big

44:33reason they were able to get to that

44:35point was a guy named Andrew Miller who

44:38they figured out when they got to the

44:40playoffs that they could just put in at

44:42any time in the game and he could pretty

44:44much lead them to the promised land.

44:47This is my segue into Royals White

44:49Socks. I truly believe that the Hagen

44:52Smith Grant Taylor combination for them

44:55if managed properly could work like that

44:58this year um in in big games throughout

45:00where like you have those two guys, you

45:04get in a spot in just about any game and

45:07you you put one of those two in and

45:09you're immediately in like a really good

45:12spot because remember before the

45:14playoffs like Andrew Miller was good but

45:16I don't think it was like known that

45:18they could just go to him in the fourth

45:19inning and he was going to like lock the

45:21game down and get them a win. And the

45:23White Socks have two of those guys in my

45:25opinion. Why that is important right now

45:28is they're obviously playing for the

45:30division. We let off the show with how

45:33important it is to win the division as

45:34opposed to win the wild card. And I just

45:37don't think that these two are priced

45:40into the number properly for the White

45:42Socks. But the tough thing is the the

45:44difficult thing is the tricky thing is

45:46knowing when they're going to be used.

45:48Now, that's where as handicappers, you

45:51start to read the tea leaves. You that's

45:52why you have to follow this stuff every

45:54single day. I thought, you know, part of

45:56my part of my handicap yesterday for the

45:58White Socks was they're going to go with

46:00Anthony Kay and they will use Grant

46:03Taylor and Hagen Smith to lock this game

46:05down. Now, Brian, they didn't need to do

46:07that because they had a 10-run lead.

46:08They were up but they were up 92 before

46:11Anthony Kay even got out of the game.

46:12So, the plans changed. Suddenly the

46:15plans changed and it then it became,

46:16hey, we we still are going to have work

46:18to do, right? So, we need to make sure

46:20that these guys can do it later in the

46:22week. Um, they were probably pissed they

46:24even had to get Grant Taylor up at the

46:26end there after giving up the grand

46:27slam. He got up and he started th you

46:30know kind of I bet he would have come

46:31into the game if um whoever was in I

46:34think it was Luis Castillo of all people

46:36at the end of the game yesterday. Had he

46:38put one more runner on base, they would

46:40have had to put Grant Taylor in the

46:41game. Fortunately, Luis Castillo got it

46:44done and Taylor didn't have to come in.

46:47He probably needed to throw a little bit

46:48anyway because he hasn't thrown in a

46:49couple of days. Why all of that is so

46:52important is it's not baked in into the

46:54number. You are probably going to get

46:56Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith here if the

47:00game is on the line. Brian, if you if

47:02you knew that you were going to get five

47:04innings from those, I'm not so I'm not

47:06saying you're going to get five, but if

47:07you knew that you were going to get five

47:08innings from those two, it would be

47:11similar to the bump the Brewers get when

47:13Miseroski starts the game where it's

47:15like the Brewers are priced one thing,

47:17but now suddenly they're minus 220

47:18because Miseroski's on the mound. If you

47:20were like, okay, you know, you're going

47:22to get five innings from Taylor and

47:24Smith. That is the equivalent to the

47:26best ace in baseball getting the start

47:29in my opinion. Like I truly believe that

47:31and you can argue with me if you want on

47:33that, but like you put those two numbers

47:35together and the fact that you're going

47:37to be able to go righty and lefty and

47:38play matchups, that is as valuable of a

47:41pitching scenario as you can find. The

47:44books have not baked this into the

47:45number yet because they don't know

47:46exactly when it's coming. I think it's

47:48coming today. So you're going to have to

47:50survive Eric Fetty here for a little

47:52bit. You're going to have to survive

47:53Brian Hudson at the beginning. But I

47:55like the White Socks again here. That

47:56will be my parlay league. So White Sox

47:58Royals to you. you had an easy winner

48:00here yesterday as well. Uh just talk to

48:02me about that and if you want to vent on

48:04the 2016 Indians, go ahead.

48:06>> Yeah, I I I will not say anything about

48:09it. It's part of baseball. It's but it's

48:12it was bad because the team that they

48:15lost to Miami or Florida, whatever they

48:18were called at the time, uh they blew

48:21the team up and they did it twice. Uh

48:23after they won the championship, they

48:24blew the team up. That's why

48:25>> that was the Cubbies year though. That

48:27was the season. Yeah, I had no problem.

48:29I know they had no problems when they

48:30lose to the Cubs. I had no problem when

48:32they lost to the Braves, but when they

48:34lost to Miami, that was the one that

48:36that really upset me. Anyway, not only

48:40do they have Taylor and Hudson, have you

48:43been watching the games lately? Noah

48:44Schulz has been coming out of the

48:45bullpen. He's their number one prospect.

48:48He was struggled all season long as a

48:51starter. They put him in the bullpen and

48:53he's been pretty impressive if you ask

48:55me. He's pitched twice this week. 23

48:57pitches yesterday, 32 on Saturday. This

49:00this White Sox bullpen is looking very

49:02impressive right now. Let's get a quick

49:04look at the line. I I uh I am going to

49:07use since we're running late on time,

49:09I'm going to use this as part of my

49:11parlay, too, but I'm going to look at it

49:13a different way. I'm going to play the

49:15under here. We got Hudson on the mound,

49:17the lefty, against the Lugo, the righty.

49:19We're looking at uh the White Socks are

49:22about a one 115 favorite. We'll use that

49:25for the parlay. And the total is eight

49:28and a half. And I'm going to play the

49:29under eight and a half here. I know I

49:31played the over in this yesterday and it

49:33was a ton of runs scored. Uh that was

49:36just the White Sox after after having a

49:38day off have been tremendous in that

49:40regard. But if you take a look at the

49:42history playing in Kansas City, these

49:44games go under and uh they go under at a

49:47pretty pretty good mark after the big

49:50scoring. We and we've talked about this

49:51before. If teams score a lot of runs one

49:53day, the next day they seem to dry up. I

49:56think this is going to be a lowscoring

49:57game. Hudson, I actually do like Hudson.

50:00Now, they're going to bring him in as

50:01the lefty to start the game off, but

50:03then they're going to have some other

50:04guys come in that are really good. Uh

50:07Fedy has looked better with the starter

50:10and he comes in as the bulk bulk

50:12reliever or whatever they call that now,

50:14the follower. Uh he's looked better in

50:16that regard. Seth Lugo is a guy who

50:18doesn't give up a lot of home runs. he

50:20pitches and is there's a good ballpark

50:21for for that. So, I like the under in

50:25this one. Uh, looking at the White

50:27Socks, Taylor hasn't pitched the last

50:29three days. Hudson hasn't pitched the

50:31last four. They could possibly go two

50:33innings with them, but I don't think

50:34they will. Hagen Smith the last two days

50:37off. Hicks the last four. Nukem. So,

50:40they're really set up in the bullpen

50:41really well here from a hitting

50:43standpoint. They've been pretty hot. I

50:45mean, obviously Maj Roth is eighth, uh,

50:47Vargas 16th, and Miraami is finally

50:50breaking out of that slump, but Tristan

50:53Peters has been injured. He has not

50:55pitched. He has not been on the field.

50:57Brettton Doyle is basically taken over

50:59his spot. He's he's gone five straight

51:01games now, and he's hitting some home

51:02runs. So, that was a good signing from

51:04them after uh after the Rockies let him

51:06go. Uh nice to be able to be out of

51:09Colorado if you're uh you've been with

51:11him as long as they he has been. But I

51:13like the under in this game and uh it's

51:16just a situation for me where I talked

51:19about a lot of these games. The weather

51:21in Kansas City is not as much of an

51:23affected affected, but the wind is

51:26blowing in, but it's not blowing hard.

51:28So I think it's going to be less runs in

51:30this game. I think it's be treated like

51:32a playoff game for the White Socks. And

51:34uh you'd have to score nine runs here.

51:36And I don't think they get there. I

51:37really like the under in this game and I

51:39hope your White Socks win one to

51:41nothing.

51:43>> Yeah, Tokyo Brandon, you like I believe

51:45you like the over in this one as well

51:47yesterday. 100 runs scored and I know

51:49this is an angle you kind of play off of

51:51sometimes. Big offensive outburst

51:53yesterday. 26 runs to be exact when it

51:56was all said and done. A 14 to11 final.

51:58Uh do you think the offense dries up

52:00here in this one?

52:02>> Yeah. Uh yeah, you know me well. Uh, I

52:05do like this bounceback kind of. Usually

52:08teams kind of run out of runs, so to

52:10speak. Uh, or if they're cold for a

52:13couple games in a row, they explode like

52:15that. Uh, I expect things to calm down.

52:17100% in agreeance with Brian. Fett's not

52:19as bad as people think. Lugo's actually

52:22pretty decent at home. I mean, four plus

52:24CRA, not terrible. On the road, he's six

52:27plus. So, uh, he pitches better at home.

52:30And uh neither one of these offenses are

52:32exactly scaring the pants off of anyone

52:35right now. So yeah, I agree with Brian

52:36in the under in this one. I would

52:38especially like it in the first five

52:40though. If you can get it under four and

52:41a half, I would probably play that

52:43instead.

52:46>> Yeah. And and you know, to answer Mark

52:47Lambert's question, he tweeted at me

52:49early and he was like, "Why would we not

52:51just run it back with the White Sox

52:53here? You're going to get those two

52:54guys, you know, like you liked

52:55yesterday." Because of course that was

52:57my 5% play yesterday. I guess the only

52:59thing that has me the re the only reason

53:02I haven't clicked yet, you know, clicked

53:04submit yet on a White Sox bet is, you

53:07know, I I'm not I don't like the I don't

53:10like Fetty as much as Anthony Kay. I I

53:12guess that's for me where it's like and

53:14then if the White Socks get behind,

53:16well, now they start to say, okay, do we

53:18do we save them for tomorrow? Like that

53:20that's the only thing for me is I don't

53:22like the beginning of this game as much.

53:24Brian, you great point about Noah

53:26Schultz. He's he's been great and he he

53:28was the guy that he did come in

53:29yesterday, so he's probably I don't

53:31remember exactly how many pitches he

53:33threw, but he may not be available here.

53:35But listen, it it's it's on a short list

53:38for me today. It's it's one of uh maybe,

53:41you know, three opinions, strong

53:43opinions that I have on today's slate.

53:45And it will be my it will be my leg for

53:48the parlay.

53:50Brian, I'm coming to you first. I want

53:52to just get uh we got Unro0515

53:55says, "Love the show. Been cleaning up

53:57with your Asian baseball videos, Tokyo

53:59Brandon. Thank you." So, shout out to

54:01you for the Asian baseball. Been

54:03crushing it all year. Um, we'll go a

54:06little long. So, Freeird, I'm not going

54:08to leave you hanging there with the

54:09donation. So, uh, we're gonna we'll get

54:12two more in. We'll get Brian's parlay

54:14leg in. First, let's go to the Braves

54:15game. Freeberg says, "Great show. Like

54:18the Braves." Freeird's giving out 5enter

54:20today in the chat. So, you get a free

54:225enter from Freeird here in the chat. He

54:24says, "Like them at 5% today would sail.

54:28Do you guys agree?" Brian Braves Reds.

54:30Do you agree with Freeird?

54:32>> Uh, by the way, my free my parlay part

54:34was the under in that White Sox game.

54:37Um, and my 5% play is a game we haven't

54:40discussed on the show. So, just so you

54:41know, um, if anybody's trying to assume

54:44what the 5% play is, uh, the the problem

54:47with Sale is

54:49I don't know how long they're going to

54:51pitch him. Uh, they've got the playoffs

54:54coming up. Um, we could see a five and

54:56fly here. Um, Cincinnati continues to

55:00play hard. When your best player is

55:02hitting as well as, uh, their shortstop

55:04is, the Cincinnati's always always in a

55:06game. I can't lay this big number with

55:09Atlanta. Yes, sales has been great. No

55:11doubt about it. Abbott's coming off of,

55:14if I remember correctly, was that the

55:15game he just got totally bombed was the

55:17last time out. I know he hasn't pitched

55:18as well lately, but um I can't lay that

55:21number with se with Atlanta. And uh it's

55:25a game they

55:28is the importance there for Atlanta in

55:30this game? I don't know. Um they they've

55:33got that fivegame lead over the Phillies

55:36with five games to go. They've already

55:39clenched it. So, I I don't see the need

55:41there for Atlanta, but they're 51 and 40

55:4428 at home. They've been great at home

55:45all season long. They they've got their

55:48ace on the mound. Um Sale is still going

55:52for the possible Sai Young out there in

55:54in the National League. Don't know if

55:56he'll get there, but had a tremendous

55:58season and I'm very happy as an older

56:00guy to see somebody at his age continue

56:03to perform well. So, I'm rooting for

56:05you.

56:07>> All right, Tokyo Brain and Braves Red.

56:09how you see in this one.

56:12>> Um, yeah, the Braves have nothing to

56:15play for, so treating this like a spring

56:18training game basically. Um, they might

56:21play their guys just to keep them

56:23stretched out. They're basically the

56:24third seed,

56:26clinch their division already. So, um,

56:29and like Brian said, Sale, they don't

56:32want to they don't want him to they

56:34don't want to strain him too much. They

56:36just want to keep his arm loose.

56:37Basically, it's spring training

56:39basically. So, um probably won't bet the

56:42game cuz it doesn't mean anything to

56:44either team. And managers can make some

56:47really quirky decisions in situations

56:49like this. Um the Reds are an awful

56:52team. I mean, they're ranked 21 or worse

56:54at everything that I see, including the

56:58starting pitcher today. Terrible. But,

57:00you know, pitchers are the guys who want

57:02to go out there and and keep their stats

57:05good. uh some of them are playing for

57:08contract, some of them want to change

57:10teams and impress the other teams. So,

57:12you know, the pitchers are always going

57:14to go out there and try, but the the the

57:15point is the managers will pull them

57:17very early, especially a guy like Sale

57:20who's getting up there in age. Very

57:22risky for injury the way he pitches. So,

57:26um, yeah, I expect Sale to throw maybe

57:28four innings and and get pulled and then

57:30it'll be a bullpen game in my I could be

57:33wrong, but that's not a very bad bullpen

57:35to rely on. Uh, I got Atlanta's bullpen

57:38ranked number three. Like I said,

57:40Cincinnati ranked so so low at

57:43everything. I mean, the Braves could

57:44probably play their entire backup team

57:47and still beat this team. So, it'd be

57:49Braves or nothing, but I'm not going to

57:51put money on it.

57:53>> Yeah. See, for me it'd be Reds or

57:55nothing. I would take the plus one and a

57:56half in in this spot. I And again, I say

57:58that very lightly. Like I I'm not dying

58:01to bet on the Reds, but like at this

58:03price, I I just see no real reason to

58:08bet the Braves at a at a high price in a

58:10game that doesn't mean a whole lot. Sale

58:13might not throw his full, you know, he

58:14might he might might not be a full start

58:16for him. I do see some wind blowing in.

58:20And you know, Andrew Abbott is capable

58:22of going out and turning in a a good

58:24start. So, it really becomes it really

58:27becomes if the you know, if the listen

58:29if the Reds show up in play here, you

58:33know, the Reds the one thing I'll say

58:34about the Reds that I think makes the

58:36Reds against the run line make a little

58:38sense. They've been a lot better against

58:39lefties this year. So, the Reds WRC plus

58:43against lefties much higher than it is

58:44against right-handed pitching. And so

58:46you already have this like massive

58:49inflated price because it's Braves verse

58:51Reds and Chris Sales on the mount. But

58:54then you're going to give me the Reds

58:55who are better against left-handed

58:56pitching in a spot where Sale might not

59:00even, you know, maybe he doesn't even go

59:01100%. Right? Like this might not be like

59:04the start where he comes out and feels

59:05like he needs to just torch the other

59:07team into oblivion. Like I kind of like

59:10the Reds. So it would be Reds plus one

59:12and a half. But again, I say that just

59:15offering a viewpoint. I I don't know if

59:17I'll get to the window with money on

59:19>> Monopoly money only.

59:23>> All right, Brian. So, I missed you. Uh,

59:26so you're going to do this. We're going

59:27to do the same game. You're going to do

59:28the under in the White Socks Royals.

59:31>> Yeah.

59:32>> Okay. What is that total again?

59:34>> That total is 8 and a half minus 110

59:36everywhere.

59:38>> All right. So, um, that should be fine

59:41since it's not a first five or anything.

59:42You guys should be mo I think I I'd

59:44assume most people can parlay the side

59:47and the, uh, the total of the game. So,

59:48that's what we're going to go with. So,

59:50we've got, uh, two plays in the White

59:53Sox Royals game. I'm going to go with

59:54White Socks money line minus What was

59:56that line, Brian? I didn't ask you for

59:58that one either.

59:59>> Um, the White Sox money line is about

1:00:04115.

1:00:07>> All right. So we've got White Sox minus

1:00:09115 and the under in White Socks Royals

1:00:128 and a half minus 110. So it's your

1:00:13full game under and White Sox Royals and

1:00:15then the White Socks on the side. Tokyo

1:00:18Brandon's going with Cubs minus 172.

1:00:21Those are your three best bets for the

1:00:23show. Chicago.

1:00:24>> Yeah, it is a it is a Chicago

1:00:27parlay. Yeah.

1:00:28>> Yep.

1:00:29>> Side total in the White Sox Royals game

1:00:31and of course the Cubs to beat the

1:00:32Marlins. That is the end of our show.

1:00:34The three of us will be back tomorrow

1:00:36morning for another episode of Total

1:00:38Basis. Brian is a 5% MLB play today. So,

1:00:40check that out and uh maybe get it as

1:00:43part of the double play package, which

1:00:44will all we're we're

1:00:45>> September 24th is the last day for the

1:00:48double play because the season's ending

1:00:49and then we can't offer that during the

1:00:51playoffs with limited games. So, you got

1:00:53two more chances to grab a double play

1:00:55and today you can grab Brian's 5enter as

1:00:57part of that as well. So, go check out

1:00:59the site for that and the three of us

1:01:01will see you in the morning for more

1:01:03total bases. Take care everybody.