MLB Picks Today ⚾ Monday Betting Preview, Odds & Best Bets | Total Bases 9/21

0:03All right, it is Monday. It is time for

0:06Total Bases. Brian Leonard will be

0:08joining us momentarily, but we want to

0:10get the uh the show is get the show

0:13started. Let's get the uh chat

0:15populated. It is not the biggest

0:17baseball day of the year. This is Tokyo

0:20Brandon. This was kind of the the

0:22weather um rain out makeup day that the

0:25MLB sort of like bakes into their

0:27schedule. uh kind of the last chance to

0:30uh make any games up before the end of

0:33the season uh which of course uh comes

0:36on Sunday. So, we're almost there. We

0:38have made it to the final week of the

0:40regular season for Major League

0:41Baseball. And um but we do have three

0:44games today. So, uh we will talk about

0:46those games. Like I said, Brian should

0:48be joining us in just a second. So,

0:50while we wait for Brian, um how was your

0:53weekend?

0:55>> Awesome. Uh I'm on an 8-0 run. I picked

0:58up 20 almost 20 units over the weekend.

1:00So, uh, just swept MLB yesterday and I

1:05swept Asian baseball this morning. So,

1:09yeah, I couldn't be better. Feeling

1:12pretty good about it. And actually,

1:14tonight, uh, I'm going to do an Asian

1:16baseball show tonight because it's a

1:18holiday in Japan and, uh, I have time to

1:20do it. So, tonight I'll be doing a Asian

1:23baseball show as well because I'm

1:24winning.

1:26How about you? I saw that you won your

1:275% with the Seahawks. Nice play.

1:30>> I I did and and apologies right here.

1:33We're just trying to We We had a link an

1:36issue with the link. So, we will get

1:37Brian in here. Hold on a second.

1:40>> Sorry about that.

1:43>> I'll keep talking if you want.

1:45>> Yeah. So, yeah. No, no, we will get

1:47Brian in here. Like I said, I think we

1:48had a I think we had an issue with the

1:51the

1:52>> setup link. So, I'm going to try to get

1:53him invited here. Uh, but while I do

1:55that last night,

1:57>> I I'm gonna try to do something I'm not

1:59great at, and that is multitask. So,

2:01while I I get Brian into the into the

2:04chat, I will talk about my weekend.

2:06Yeah, I had a uh 2 and 0 NFL day

2:09yesterday. My um 5% play hit on the um

2:14Okay, Dan is helping, so we're good. I

2:16can look into the camera now. Uh my 5%

2:18play hit on the Seahawks. I swept the

2:20NFL 2-0. Uh, I am 4-0 in the regular

2:24season for the NFL. Uh, so two and 0

2:26week one, two and 0 week two, hit both

2:285% plays and um 8-2 overall. That

2:32includes the NFL preseason. That is

2:34number one on the wager talk site for

2:36NFL to start the season. It's obviously

2:38a long season, but I feel pretty good

2:40about how the season started. And um I

2:43do have a coupon. So there's right now I

2:46believe the coupon code blitz 100. Might

2:48as well get the promos out of the way.

2:50Um, while while we wait for Brian to log

2:52in, I do uh Blitz 100, coupon code blitz

2:56100 takes $100 off uh the NFL season for

2:59me and you can get that uh currently on

3:03my page. Tokyo Brandon, do you have

3:05anything to promote? Like I said, we

3:07will get going here. There's only three

3:08games today, so we're going to get to

3:09all three thorough. Um so yeah, we might

3:12as well take care of the promos now.

3:14>> Yeah, I do. Uh I have an MLB game that's

3:17up right now. uh one of these three

3:19games. I have a a play in that and I

3:22will be betting a lot of Asian baseball

3:24tonight because I really like the

3:26matchups, but uh Lions are not out yet,

3:28but I will have big plays in Asian

3:30baseball tonight as well. If you get a

3:32double play, it's two of us, three when

3:36Brian comes. Uh but that's baseball all

3:39access. Uh Adam's football is redot, so

3:42you can uh pick up one of Adam's

3:44football packages as well. But for me,

3:47uh, double play with one of you guys or

3:49there's a triple play which is, uh, 6

3:51days for the price of three. So, lots of

3:53deals at wagertalk.com.

3:57Absolutely. And like I said, we had a

3:59little bit of, uh, technical difficulty

4:00this morning. Always always seems to

4:02happen on a Monday. Uh, always seems to

4:05happen on the Monday. For some reason,

4:06our link got reset. So, uh, we're just

4:10making sure people can can jump in, can

4:12find the show. Uh sorry for the extended

4:15intro. Um if you are watching this live,

4:19if you are watching this live, throw a

4:21throw a chat, throw a um a comment in

4:24the live chat and and let us know that

4:27you can see us because like I said, we

4:29are having a little bit of a little bit

4:31of issues, Bri. So we've got Brian in

4:33now. So Brian, we have a little bit of

4:35an issue with the live stream or with

4:37the Streamyard link. I think we are up

4:39and running. Um, so I'm going to kick it

4:41to Brian to talk about his weekend. And

4:43while he does that, jump in the live

4:47chat and let us know if you can hear us

4:49uh so we can get going.

4:51>> All right. Um, yeah, nice nice weekend.

4:54I went uh 4 and two on Saturday or

4:57excuse me, four and four on Saturday.

5:00Uh, but my losses were twoenters. I went

5:04three and 0 and 3enter higher plays. And

5:07then yesterday I went four and one. Um

5:10and uh yeah, football especially has

5:13been very well, very good. Uh I think

5:16I'm number three overall in the last

5:19month. And uh football winning and

5:22college winning on everything right now.

5:24Obviously um that's what we go that's

5:28what we shoot for, but uh yeah, nice

5:30weekend. Can't complain.

5:33>> All right, so you know what this is? If

5:35there was ever a day for the uh live

5:37chat comments to break down or have a

5:40hard time feeding through, uh today's

5:42the day because we're going to talk

5:44about the whole slate. There's three

5:46games. Uh as I was saying before Brian

5:48jumped in, this was kind of this was

5:50kind of MLB's last ditch uh makeup day,

5:54mutual off day for any games that would

5:56have needed to be made up. But uh it's

5:58kind of been a dry September. Hasn't

6:00been a ton of rain uh cancelling games.

6:02So, we get hit with a three-game Monday

6:06slate and we will talk about all three

6:08of those games. So, let's get things

6:10started in Baltimore tonight.

6:13I would say, well, no, it it's easily

6:16the most meaningful of the three games

6:18that we're going to see today. Uh, for

6:20the Blue Jays, probably a pipe dream at

6:22this point that they could make the

6:23playoffs, but um they are they're the

6:26only team of the six playing that really

6:28have any sort of chance uh at doing so.

6:31set the table. Brian, I'm going to go to

6:33you. So, Blue Jays head to Baltimore.

6:35They're three games back of the White

6:38Sox. The White Sox is the team that

6:39they're currently chasing in the wild

6:41card standings. However, the team that

6:43they probably have a better chance of

6:45passing is the Guardians because they

6:48have the tiebreaker against the

6:49Guardians. They do not have the

6:50tiebreaker against the White Socks. And

6:52the White Socks schedule very favorable

6:55from here on out playing the Royals and

6:57the Rockies. So, at least for one more

7:00day, the Blue Jays will be playing what

7:02what what you could call quote unquote

7:04meaningful baseball. With that being

7:06said, I think the Jays needed a minimum

7:09of two out of three in Texas to have

7:11anything mean anything this week. But

7:14one more day, you know, the Jays play,

7:16no one else does. So, they're certainly

7:17going to go in and say, "Hey, we got to

7:19win this game." Um, and they've got Trey

7:21Savage on the mound. And I got to be

7:23honest, I was surprised to see them a

7:25small underdog here. I kind of I make

7:27them a favorite. So Jay's Orioles, your

7:31Savage Baz, how are you seeing this one?

7:34>> Yeah, it's looking like as bad as the AL

7:36Central is, they they're going to get

7:38two teams in the playoffs. Uh I'm happy

7:41because as a Cleveland fan, I'm happy

7:42for Kelly as a as a White Sox fan. But

7:45that tells you a lot about what's going

7:47on here in the American League. Um Tampa

7:51Bay

7:52continues to go out there and and play

7:55good baseball. they're on a mission and

7:57uh and the Yankees when they got once

7:59they got the news of Judge um kind of

8:02lessened their their abilities obviously

8:06and their uh motivation to win the

8:08division, but we got you Savage against

8:10Bos here. Uh it's turning into basically

8:13a pick them here 110 either way. um with

8:17the total of seven and a half. Uh

8:20interesting

8:22um that they bring back you Savage here.

8:25Uh he was so great in the playoffs last

8:28year and had a really tough time staying

8:30healthy again this year. But um

8:34how have you read how many pitches he's

8:36going to go? I I can't imagine it's

8:39they're going to chance it more than

8:41more than like 50 pitches or so. So I I

8:44think that's why you're saying that the

8:46value is on there is they don't expect B

8:48or they don't expect him to compete with

8:51Bos when it comes to that. I've got uh

8:53cheat sheets here here showing that uh

8:57from um B Park they're expecting him to

8:59go about three innings whereas Bos is

9:01going to go five and a half. Um, and

9:04then when you take a look at the Toronto

9:06bullpen,

9:07uh, they used yesterday, they really

9:10needed that game and, uh, they went out

9:12and got it. They used Spencer Argetti,

9:1543 pitches, but they also used their top

9:18four guys. Uh, especially with Spencer

9:20Miles going 46. He was a big help for

9:22him yesterday. But, you know, they had

9:24to use Varent, they had to use Rogers

9:26for the second time in a row, and they

9:28had to use Flity. So, uh, flu Hardy. Uh,

9:32so, uh, I think that's why that is in

9:35that situation. Uh, I made the line

9:38basically what it is here. I like, uh,

9:41Bos because he's going a little bit

9:43longer here. And, uh, two teams that got

9:47to be a little bit disappointed, but,

9:49you know, I think Toronto is more

9:52disappointed from what they came into

9:54the season with. We all expected it to

9:56be a different year for Toronto. So

9:59slight lead for me on Baltimore, but

10:01probably won't get there.

10:04>> Yeah. So I think you can pretty much

10:06count on uh your Savage as an an opener

10:09here. I I I read so one of the Blue Jays

10:11beat writers said between 40 or 45 and

10:1450 pitches would be the maximum. Um I So

10:18that maybe gets you a couple innings. So

10:20I think you're going to see them go with

10:23like a Miles or an Aragetti maybe behind

10:25him. Um, I have to look at their usage,

10:27but they're going to do what they've

10:28This is nothing new for the Blue Jays.

10:30They've kind of done this in their

10:31rotation. Um, whether it be uh having

10:34Fiser open a game for a couple innings.

10:37They've done this for the last month or

10:39so. So, I think you're going to see you

10:41Savage for maybe two innings, maybe

10:42three at the most, and then the Blue

10:44Jays probably piggyback him with another

10:46guy for three and then go into their

10:48high leverage bullpen arms. Um, he threw

10:50one rehab outing in Buffalo. It was not

10:53good. Uh he didn't make it out of an

10:55inning. He threw 34 pitches. Everything

10:57was right down the middle. So I I I

11:00wouldn't I'll say this as I throw it to

11:01Tokyo Brandon. I wouldn't put much stock

11:03into that. It was his only rehab outing.

11:05I think he was probably just trying to

11:08get a feel for throwing the baseball

11:10again and he was just throwing the ball

11:11over the plate. Guys in AAA, especially

11:13Rochester, who just won the second half

11:16of uh the International League, they'll

11:18go to the playoffs um this week. Really

11:21good AAA lineup. So you can't just throw

11:23the ball over the middle of the plate

11:24and expect to not give up hits. I

11:25wouldn't put much stock into that. It

11:28was one outing. So So Tony Brandon,

11:30knowing that it's probably going to be a

11:32savage and then you're going to kind of

11:33have to figure out who's next for the

11:35Blue Jays. Uh what do you have here for

11:37Blue Jays Orioles?

11:39>> Yeah, the Blue Jays pretty much the only

11:41team out of these six here that are

11:43actually playing have a hope. Uh they

11:48almost have to win it out, right? I

11:50mean, the Orioles technically

11:52mathematically are alive if they if they

11:54win out the rest of their schedule.

11:56Technically alive, but they have no

11:58shot. So, um, yeah, Yavage looking at

12:03his last couple games, yeah, he's like a

12:04two inning kind of guy recently. Um,

12:08probably two innings for him and then

12:10the bullpen comes in. That Blue Jays

12:11bullpen is not pitching well right now.

12:13This is where I think the Orioles have a

12:15bit of an advantage. Um, Orioles, man, I

12:18watched the game last night. They looked

12:20terrible. And I know facing Miserowski

12:23can make you look terrible, but Merowski

12:26did not have his best stuff. And he came

12:28out after three innings. Uh, he did not

12:31have his command. He started I I counted

12:33he started off almost every batter with

12:35two balls. Uh, and, uh, he was kind of

12:39getting himself back into each at bat.

12:42Didn't look like Mizowski, but he

12:44handled them very nicely. came out after

12:46three innings and uh and Young started

12:50off he had nine strikeouts. He he

12:53actually looked better to me, but he

12:54gave up more runs. So anyways, that

12:57aside, um I mean the bull if if if it's

13:02going to be a long Toronto Blue Jays

13:04bullpen game, I think we're going to see

13:05lots of runs here, especially after the

13:07Orioles got styied yesterday. Uh I can

13:10see quite a few runs here. Baz probably

13:12the more stable of the pitcher, probably

13:14the more more likely guy to go five or

13:16so innings. Uh but he has pretty decent

13:19numbers against these Blue Jays. Not not

13:21terrible, not great. Looks like an over

13:23to me though because uh I think we're

13:26just going to see a lot of runs. Um the

13:28Blue Jays bullpin not in good shape. Uh

13:30Baz out of 30 got him ranked 18. So

13:34yeah, both of these teams I think will

13:35put up some runs.

13:37>> Yeah, I just I misspoke. The Miles

13:38Aragetti day was yesterday. So you're

13:40you're probably not going to see either

13:42of them. You'll probably see anyone but

13:44them behind you Savage. And now you

13:46could see some of the other guys that

13:48maybe went an inning yesterday. I think

13:49I ultimately think it'll be your Savage

13:52for two or three and then it's going to

13:53be like one one.

13:56See if you can get the to the end of the

13:58game with the lead. See if you can get

13:59Louis Vl to close it down. On the

14:02Orioles side, um their bullpen's not in

14:05the best shape either. Um, Felix

14:08Bautista has not thrown backto-back days

14:10yet, so you may not see him. Um, again,

14:14I I

14:16I made the Blue Jays a slight favorite,

14:18but I I'm there. This is This is kind of

14:21a coin flip game. I don't know if I'll

14:22get to the window with this. I I did I

14:24do, for what it's worth, even with their

14:26bullpen in the current shape where

14:28you're probably not going to have Miles

14:29or Ericetti, I still make the Jays a

14:31slight favorite here. Brian, go ahead.

14:33>> Yeah, you mentioned the two guys uh

14:35yesterday. Miles threw 46 pitches.

14:37Arietti 43.

14:40I'm just speculating. It's 6:00 a.m.

14:42here in Vegas. I I don't know what's

14:43going to happen. I'm just speculating

14:46based on their bullpen usage. Uh Eric

14:49Getti still got three more options and

14:52it would not surprise me if they sent

14:53him down and brought up one of the

14:54starters from uh Triple A. Uh is there

14:58any of those guys that uh you you trust

15:01in Major League situation right now? Uh

15:04we've, you know, we got we got Van E who

15:07I've heard about. Um and we've got Chad

15:09Dallas who has been in majors before. Um

15:13they probably bring one of those up one

15:15of them up and let him pitch three

15:16innings, I would guess.

15:19>> Yeah, the Bisons have have had just

15:21awful pitching all year. It would it

15:24would probably be So Van can't be in a

15:27major league game right now. He'll get

15:28destroyed. that's just not like he I I

15:31don't know that he's a guy that's that

15:32I'm throwing in a big league game yet.

15:34Um Chad Dallas has has at least shown

15:37that he can get outs at the big league

15:39level. Um you know, he's been up a

15:41couple of times. Chad Dallas has

15:42actually not been terrible in the like

15:45three inning role. He's had a couple of

15:46decent outings in that role. Uh he last

15:49I'm trying to because we just because we

15:51have time. So he last pitched two

15:53innings on Saturday for I'm sorry on

15:56Friday for Buffalo. So yeah, he could he

15:58could easily go today. I think the guy

16:01that probably is has the most upside

16:05um

16:07is someone they just recently called up

16:09from double A and I'm trying to figure

16:11out when the last time he pitched is uh

16:14because he Let me let me just get the

16:15name here. And again I normally I'd be

16:17moving on but we've got we've got the

16:19time to do it. Um, but I haven't seen

16:22him pitch the last couple days. So, I

16:24think it might be Stannifer, but I

16:26haven't seen him in there the last few

16:28days. So, I don't know if maybe he

16:29tweaked something, if he's hurt. I think

16:31the most logical move would be to bring

16:34Chad Dallas up. He hasn't pitched since

16:36Friday. He went two innings. He could at

16:38least give you two or three, you know,

16:41in the middle of the game where he's

16:42probably gonna, you know, we've seen him

16:44at the big league level before. He he

16:46should be able to keep you in the game.

16:47But yeah, it it could get it could get

16:50dicey for the Jays after you Savage,

16:53especially let's say he doesn't have

16:54his, you know, let's say they have to

16:56pull him after the first inning because

16:58he puts some guys on, suddenly he's got

17:00a 30 pitch inning. Yeah, you could you

17:02could be in a situation here for the

17:04Jays and maybe that does help the over

17:06if you like a total in this game.

17:10All right, went a little like we're

17:12going to I mean again, so I can't see

17:13your comments today. Uh but so if you're

17:15if you're commenting, I apologize. I

17:17can't see them today. Uh if you want us

17:19to see a comment, jump in the in the

17:21YouTube replay and throw the comment on

17:24there. We will see them after the show.

17:25Like I said, fortunately, the comments

17:28aren't going to, you know, we're going

17:29to talk about all three games and we're

17:31probably going to go long on all three

17:32because we've got the time to do so. Uh

17:34so let's go to the next game. Uh this is

17:36going to be this one's this one's pretty

17:38interesting. if you're if you're really

17:40into like, you know, Brian, I I know you

17:43play a ton of fantasy baseball and like

17:46this is this is an intriguing game. You

17:47get to see DJ Hers for the first time in

17:50in a very long time. He of course uh has

17:52been dealing with injury for over a year

17:55now and you're going to get to see the

17:58Tigers debut of River Ryan right here,

18:01though it is probably in an opener type

18:04capacity. They've they've talked about

18:06this. AJ Hintch, you know, has has

18:08mentioned even last week when he was

18:10down at Toledo, probably a couple

18:12innings. I can't imagine it's any

18:14different at the big league level,

18:15especially with the game not really

18:17meaning a whole lot uh you know, in the

18:20grand scheme of things. So, Nationals

18:22Tigers, DJ Hers, River Ryan, anything

18:25for you here?

18:26Yeah, I think uh they brought him up to

18:30get a look at him and he may be pitching

18:32again uh on Sunday for the series finale

18:35or Saturday or Sunday if they decide to

18:36keep him up. Um yeah, I'm only expecting

18:39a couple innings out of him. Herz

18:40probably three or four. Uh TJ Hurst is a

18:43guy if he came up a couple years ago and

18:46was very impressive. He's a lefty. I

18:48always pay attention to those lefties

18:50when they when they join the majors and

18:52I made good money on backing him back

18:55then. Um, we're looking at uh Ryan being

18:58about a 150 favorite and uh with a total

19:02of eight to the over, eight and a half

19:04to the under pretty much split. Um,

19:09Detroit is recently out of the out of

19:11the race, although they gave it a shot.

19:14Um, hats off to them. Washington's been

19:16out for a while. I think the line's a

19:19little high in this game based on as

19:21much as I like Riveran, I like both

19:23these guys actually, but with him only

19:25going a couple innings, uh that is a

19:27concern here and uh Detroit's got

19:30nothing to play for. Washington still

19:31got a lot of young players on this team.

19:33So, um take a look at um the uh

19:38the side here for Washington. Uh take a

19:41look at the bullpen obviously and that's

19:44something you have to uh keep a mind in.

19:47and they've had a lot of bullpen use,

19:49especially out of their best relievers

19:50the last few days. Uh Tolman's gone 27

19:54pitches last two days, two blown saves

19:55in a row. Uh Sinclair's gone two out of

19:58three. Cruz has gone the last two days.

20:00He took the loss yesterday. Uh Dion, who

20:03um came over from Cleveland, he got a

20:05two pitch save on Saturday, but he

20:07pitched 29 pitches yesterday. Uh I think

20:11we'll see Brad Lord, he threw 28 on

20:13Friday. So, this is another one of these

20:15bullpen games that uh you and you've got

20:18one of the lesser bullpens in Major

20:20League Baseball. So, um that would mean

20:24more runs here from an offensive

20:27standpoint. If you take a look at what

20:28Washington's done as of late, Dylan

20:30Lyle's been really hot, but uh everybody

20:32else pretty even. Nobody's really

20:34killing them. Although, uh Ortiz has not

20:37lived up to uh the hype when they

20:39brought him up. He's the lefty playing

20:41first base. But, uh, yeah, that's that's

20:44your concern there is they're they're

20:46going to have to go with their bullpen a

20:47lot. And of course, you know, that's

20:49what we're expecting out of the

20:50opposition today. And when you take a

20:53look at Detroit here with River Ryan

20:55going, uh, the Tigers,

20:59Tigers from an offensive standpoint, uh,

21:02McGonagal's still out there playing

21:04great. He looks like he's going to win

21:05the Rookie of the Year. And, uh, Riley

21:08Green's been very hot since they brought

21:09him up. and Max Clark and Turkelson. So,

21:11some of their power bats are hitting

21:13pretty well. Um, that's a good thing for

21:16Detroit because overall not the best

21:18power hitting team, but I like it when

21:21you're out powerhitting guys are the

21:22ones that are hitting well. Um, and uh

21:26we'll probably see um Ontario go today.

21:31um he was their expected starter. So,

21:33it's probably going to be um the two

21:37innings or so out of River and then Mont

21:39get in there and their bullpen's in much

21:41better shape here. So, um like the

21:44Detroit situation, don't like the

21:46Detroit line. And so, it's either over

21:50or nothing for me. Uh with all the

21:52bullpen arms are going to be used, um we

21:56could get over eight atus 120. That's

21:58probably the way I would look to go.

22:00Tokyo Brandon. Yeah, I can confirm that

22:03it's going to be Kaider Montero after

22:05River Ryan. I think you could approach

22:06this as you're going to get to see a a

22:08nice like maybe two inning preview here

22:10of River Ryan. I think the Tigers want

22:12to show uh they'd love to show their

22:14fans two really good innings. Of course,

22:16he's the guy uh that was one of the key

22:18pieces in the Tariq Scooble uh trade.

22:20So, I I think if you're the Tigers and

22:23River Ryan throws two pretty good

22:24innings, okay, you're out. That was

22:27fine. That's good. And um you know then

22:29it's Kaider Montero in his bulk. He's

22:32done the bulk roll thing plenty. So uh

22:34definitely a more a more normal setup

22:38here for the Tigers in my opinion. I'll

22:41talk about the DJ. I want to bring you

22:42in here, give your handicap of the game

22:44and then I'll give you an idea of what

22:45you can expect from DJ Hurst because

22:47I've watched him a bunch at Rochester.

22:49So uh Tigers Nationals to you.

22:52>> Sounds good. Uh, I think, yeah, I I

22:55agree that the the line is a little bit

22:57high for Detroit, but I I understand why

23:00it is. Uh, because we're expecting a lot

23:02of bullpen arms and Detroit has a huge

23:04bullpen advantage here. Uh, I've got

23:06Washington's bullpen ranked close to

23:09dead last in MLB where Detroit's is

23:12actually number 12 out of 30 right now.

23:15Um, both lineups hitting pretty well.

23:17I've got both lineups in the top 10

23:19currently in current form. So, uh, I

23:23would agree with Brian that the line's

23:25too high. And I also would agree that

23:28that over looks good. Um, anytime you

23:32get these young guys in, they might have

23:34a lot of talent, but they generally are

23:35not going to pitch six innings usually.

23:38Uh, so yeah, they'll come out, bullpen

23:41will come in, usually chaos ensues, and

23:44we got two pretty good hitting lineups.

23:46So, I I pretty much agree with what

23:48Brian said.

23:50Yeah. So,

23:52let me talk about DJ Hers for a second.

23:54Um, give you the timeline, what brings

23:57us to to here for him. He missed all of

23:59last year uh with an injury, had Tommy

24:02John back in April, so it cost him all

24:04of 2025 and um this season his he's had

24:09like a number of setbacks in in his

24:10rehab. So, flexer strain. I mean, the

24:13fact that he's it's a pretty big like

24:16the fact that he's going to appear in a

24:17big league game this year is is a pretty

24:19big deal when you consider, you know, he

24:22he he reinjured himself back in June. Um

24:26made a couple of he was down in like

24:28rookie ball or like a ball. Reinjured

24:31himself. You had like right there you

24:33got to kind of think, okay, he's going

24:34to lose this year as well.

24:36um made it back August 8th was his his

24:40he comes back off the IIL, starts to

24:42pitch at single A and double A. Um he's

24:45been a regular now in the Rochester

24:48rotation for about a month

24:51hasn't been good. So like the my concern

24:53here is you know since he's gotten a

24:55tripaa he's made four starts um well

24:58really three starts. The first one was a

25:00uh a brief twoinninging um two inning

25:02outing. So, you look at his September

25:05numbers, three starts at Rochester. Um,

25:07guys are hitting 256 against him. The

25:10biggest issue, um, 11 hits in 11

25:14innings, giving up home runs. Like, it's

25:16a small sample, but it's a 6.55 ERA.

25:20Everything's been out over the plate.

25:23Not Not ideal in my opinion if you're uh

25:26if you're, you know, so yes, I do think

25:28that there's some like in general

25:30there's line value. Look at Nationals

25:32Tigers. Okay, neither of these teams are

25:34great teams. You got one that's a pretty

25:36big favorite. There should be some line

25:38value with the Nats there, but I you

25:40know I'd much rather have like it is a

25:43Kaider Monto start. So basically what

25:45you're getting here like if you're

25:47getting River Ryan for two innings quote

25:50unquote out of the bullpen. They're just

25:51going to be at the beginning of the

25:52game. If you if if if I'm looking at

25:54this game, handicapping this game and

25:56saying, "Okay, so I'm gonna get Kaider

25:58Montero against potentially against DJ

26:01Hers, who God knows what's going to

26:02happen there, and then the Nats bullpen,

26:05which is not very good, and has used

26:08some guys over the weekend. But on the

26:10other side, I'm getting River Ryan for

26:12like two you they won't be leverage

26:15innings because they're at the

26:16beginning. That might take me to like

26:17the seventh inning right there. And now

26:19suddenly I've got the Tigers top

26:21relievers. That that's a pretty big edge

26:24for the Tigers. So like of the three, if

26:26we're just talking about trying to pick

26:27a winner on with three games on the

26:30board today, the Tigers is the clear in

26:32my opinion side that has the most likely

26:35chance to win. I guess the line is

26:37telling you that a little bit, but I I I

26:39don't mind where this is priced when I

26:42start to add in the intangibles here. I

26:44think the Tigers are a favorite for a

26:46reason here and they're probably the

26:47most likely of these teams to win their

26:49game today.

26:51>> I will say that Washington has taken

26:53some money in the last few minutes. So,

26:55uh,

26:56>> great.

26:56>> Yeah, you're you're laying about one,

26:58you know, 130 135 now for the Tigers.

27:01>> Yeah, that's So, I I'm going to see how

27:04that plays out over the next couple

27:05hours. I obviously, you know, you you

27:08want to I'm not going to like fire it on

27:10this this show right here because I want

27:12to go do my due diligence and see what

27:14you know, that's a decent enough move.

27:16But at minus 135, I mean, we're going to

27:19try, listen, we're going to try to put

27:20together a parlay at the end of the show

27:22with three games. So, we we'll see what,

27:24you know, the best we can do. Tigers

27:27minus 130 starts to get into the

27:29territory where I I would have to

27:30consider making that a bet. I I just

27:33think like River Ryan and Monttero

27:35eating up like seven of the nine innings

27:37probably is a is a pretty big edge um

27:40right there. So yeah, I I'll be looking

27:41to play back at that move for sure.

27:46>> All right, Tokyo Brandon coming to you.

27:48Let's get into the third of three games.

27:50Um we've got your boy Zebie Zebie

27:54Matthews on the mound for the Twins. Um

27:58they're on their they're still on their

27:59tour of the West Coast playing. That's

28:01got to be miserable for the Twins.

28:02They're stuck out west. Road trip at the

28:05end of the season. Season's over.

28:08>> Yeah, that's that's rough. Um you

28:10especially because a month ago they had

28:12to be sitting there a month ago being

28:13like, "Hey, like we're we're kind of

28:14still in this. We're we're in this as

28:16much as anyone else in the AL Central,

28:18but they've really fallen off." Whereas

28:20the Giants, they've been playing

28:22meaningless baseball, it feels like

28:23since May 1st. I mean, they were they

28:26were one of the first teams this year

28:27that was like clearly out of it. and

28:30they've called up a lot of their young

28:32guys. It's really just getting guys reps

28:34at this point. Uh Blade Tidwell is going

28:36to start for the Giants. He's been one

28:38of the kind of guys that has benefited

28:40from the Giants being out of the race.

28:42He's gotten to come up and pitch uh

28:44extended time in the rotation at the big

28:46league level. And for the most part, I

28:47think he's done a pretty good job. So,

28:50Giants twins, this is an interesting

28:52matchup. It it it's priced as a coin

28:54flip and unless you can give convince me

28:56otherwise, uh it's kind of a coin flip.

28:59So talk to me about Twins Giants. Who do

29:00you like here?

29:02>> Yeah, quick promo. Double play is two of

29:04us three. Three days all access for all

29:07baseball. I'm going to have some big

29:09Asian baseball plays tonight. I already

29:12have a Major League Baseball play up and

29:14I'm going to do a Asian baseball Monday

29:16night show at 900 p.m. Eastern, so check

29:18that out on my channel. These two

29:21gentlemen are on fire. I am on fire as

29:24well. So it's a good time to back us.

29:26Uh, I'm on a 8 and0 run right now. So,

29:30let's get to this game. Um,

29:34so the Twins are obviously the better

29:37team. Uh, as far as when I put the

29:39numbers in, I mean, it lights up like a

29:42pingpong or it lights up like a pinball

29:44machine. It's like twins, twins, twins,

29:46twins, twins. They they they're better

29:47at everything. Um the Giants actually

29:52uh your boy Tidwell his his expected

29:55numbers not very good. I think he's been

29:58getting a little lucky. That bullpin is

30:00terrible for San Francisco. They're

30:02playing really bad right now. Um hitting

30:05wise I got the teams pretty much even.

30:07Uh but Debbie has a huge huge advantage

30:10in in his uh command and control. He's

30:13walking 33% of the guys he's striking

30:15out where Tidwell's uh 53. So, he's

30:19walking a little too many people.

30:20Granted, I know the sample size is

30:22pretty small, but um it would be twins

30:25or nothing for me. I think uh you know,

30:28it's hard to bet teams when there's

30:30nothing to play for and when they're on

30:31this grueling West Coast trip. But uh as

30:36long I don't mean to be the first guy to

30:38grab a game, but this would probably be

30:41my parlay leg taking the Twins at minus

30:43118 if you guys are okay with that.

30:47>> Yeah, 118 looks about right there. And

30:50uh

30:51>> I mean, if you don't mind me taking one

30:52of the three games right off,

30:54>> someone's got to do it. Why not?

30:56>> Okay.

30:56>> Yeah.

30:57>> Okay, I'll take that one. Hopefully you

30:59guys didn't have your your hopes on that

31:01one, but yeah, I like the twins.

31:03>> I did. I I desperately wanted that one

31:05TB, but last show we did, I stole it

31:07right out from under you. Uh so you

31:10could steal one right out from under me

31:11because I I did for Minnesota in this

31:14game. Uh Matthews and Tidwell, we're

31:16looking at about a 118 favorite here for

31:18Minnesota. Uh 8 to the over, minus 120,

31:228 and a half to the under minus 120. So

31:25right there at 8.75.

31:27Um, yeah, Zebie Matthews is got a huge

31:32home road dichotomy uh on the season.

31:34He's coming off his best start of the

31:36year. Uh, and yet I like him here. Uh,

31:40he's getting bombed on the road so far

31:42this season, but he's pitching a little

31:44bit better now. A very, very big

31:46confidence builder last time out. He

31:48looked terrific in that game. And if you

31:50take a look at the Minnesota Twins, I

31:52trust their bats a little bit better

31:54here. plus on the road. Twins games of

31:57uh they've done pretty well on the road

31:59yesterday. Um they were really helped

32:02out because they went with two starters

32:05yesterday. They went with Kramer and and

32:07Ober and they both pitched great. So

32:10nobody else in the bullpen had to be

32:11used yesterday and that was huge because

32:15they had been used a lot lately. In

32:17fact, going into yesterday, GMA as the

32:19closer been used four out of five. Uh

32:22Hoffman three out of four, Mitch three

32:24out of four. So that bullpen definitely

32:27needed that. So that was a huge edge uh

32:30for Kramer and over to be able to do

32:33that yesterday. And uh so that opens up

32:35their bullpen for a traditional game

32:38today, which I think will be pretty good

32:40because, you know, I I I think we're

32:42going to get a pretty good start out of

32:44the uh starting pitcher for Minnesota.

32:47And if you take a look at the offense,

32:48the offense has been doing pretty well.

32:50Uh Kesha Lee, uh Bell, and Jenkins have

32:54all been uh doing well. And we are

32:58seeing the Twins bringing up some of

33:00those guys that we've been waiting on a

33:02long time. Rodriguez Jenkins have been

33:05brought up. Um they had to bring up Ross

33:07because of an injury, but still they've

33:09got a lot of young guys on this team

33:11coming out there. They care. This is

33:13their best. This is their big time to be

33:16able to prove everybody what they can do

33:18in the majors. And uh they got some

33:20bullpen arms as well that uh can do

33:23that. So I kind of like Minnesota here.

33:25And if you take a look at the San

33:27Francisco situation, yeah, Tidwell has

33:30been pretty good for them overall.

33:31didn't expect much out of him. Uh he

33:34comes in is the number 20 26

33:38starting pitcher, but he's 101 over the

33:40last two two weeks. In fact, Rup

33:42Wilkinson and he have all been pitching

33:44very well. They've gotten really good

33:46starting pitcher the last couple of

33:47weeks. Uh from a hitting standpoint, not

33:50as much. They did get Bryce Elidge got

33:52hurt uh three games back. He hasn't

33:55played. I don't think there's any reason

33:57for them to bring him back. He's

33:59probably done for the season, I would

34:00think. uh they get a chance to bring up

34:02some younger guys and they've had Hill

34:04and uh Hill and uh Cox have been brought

34:08up and they've done pretty well. So,

34:09both teams trying to get a look at what

34:12they can see for next year. So, I would

34:15see some younger players in this one and

34:17from a bullpen standpoint, uh they're

34:20not they're not in bad shape. They had

34:21these four guys yesterday, but overall

34:23they're not in bad shape either. So,

34:25yeah, I like Minnesota a little bit

34:27here.

34:28That makes three of us. Um, with the

34:30exception of Jung-Ho Lee, this Giants

34:33lineup that played yesterday h has been

34:37the lineup at Sacramento at points this

34:39year. Like, I mean, it's like like not

34:41not like when you we say like, "Oh, this

34:43is a triple AAA lineup." Like, when you

34:45take Eldridge out of that lineup, like

34:47yesterday's lineup against the Dodgers

34:49with the exception of Jung-H Lee, like

34:51that exact lineup has been run out at

34:54Sacramento multiple times. Um, I'm gonna

34:57go back to yesterday's game, uh, because

34:59this would be my way into this game. Um,

35:01you know, I I priced it out similar to

35:03where the market had it, but the Giants,

35:07this is a bad spot for the Giants. They

35:09wanted that one yesterday because if

35:11there's one thing to play for for the

35:13rest of the year, if you're the Giants,

35:14it was getting a win against the

35:16Dodgers, right? They're go they're

35:17they're playing to avoid the sweep.

35:20Yesterday was probably their best chance

35:22at getting one, excuse me, in that

35:24series because of course the first two

35:26games of the series they were up against

35:28really, you know, I think they were uh m

35:30I think the Dodgers we we talked about

35:31on maybe Saturday was minus 400 with

35:35Scooble on the mound. So yesterday was

35:37the chance for the Giants to win. They

35:38have the lead. Tugboat pitches well for

35:41five innings. And they actually even

35:43trailing, even tied and trailing, they

35:45they went for it yesterday with their

35:47better bullpen arms. Um Smith pitched an

35:50inning. They put Carson Seymour. I

35:52Seymour is whatever, but they went to

35:55Henes and um Trent Harris all in

35:58yesterday's game, which is like the guys

36:00you might expect to see in leverage

36:02spots for the um you know, for the for

36:04the Giants right now, especially Smith.

36:07He's been kind of one of their big- time

36:09leverage guys over the last couple

36:10months. So, this is actually a bad spot

36:13for the Giants even though they're at

36:14home. They come off the series with the

36:16Dodgers. The first two games weren't

36:17very good, but yesterday was like that

36:20was like that's a let down for them to

36:21not have gotten that win. Um, you know,

36:24with the one- nothing lead, that's their

36:26rival. Now they got to go play like the

36:29rest of their quote unquote meaningless

36:31season. I I could see a flat spot here

36:33from the Giants and Tokyo Brandon, I am

36:34with you, Tid Tidwell, props to him for

36:37for a couple of the starts he's had. I

36:39think he pitched into the seventh inning

36:41last time in a quality start, but you're

36:44right. The underlying metrics and the um

36:46expected stuff still suggests he's

36:48probably aa guy. I don't even know if

36:51I'm ready to call him a 4A guy. The Met

36:53the Mets didn't want to put him at the

36:54big league level either for what it's

36:56worth. They were the Mets were super

36:57hesitant to bring, you know, to to push

37:00him up to the big league level and then

37:01they just traded him. So again, I'm I'm

37:04I'm I'm not fully there yet on Tidwell

37:06being a big leager and um whereas we

37:09know Zebby is at this point and uh Brian

37:11made a you great point about the bullpen

37:14fully fresh here. I I I think you guys

37:16got a good one with the Twins. That's

37:17the way it would go as well.

37:21Brian, I'll I'll listen. I'll give you

37:22the deal choice to you. Uh if you you

37:25you take the I could I could get there

37:27with a pretty strong opinion in either

37:29of these other two games. So, I'll let

37:31you uh

37:32>> Well, you you give your opinion and I'll

37:35take whatever's left. I because I'm I'm

37:37likely going to be passing today.

37:40>> All right. I I think at the price the

37:43Tigers makes a lot of sense. I I don't

37:45really agree with that Nationals money.

37:47I don't know if I'll get there for

37:49clients, but I I disagree with the Nats

37:52taking taking money based on this the

37:55the situation for this game. I I just

37:57think River Ryan and Monttero with the

38:00Tigers at home is a a pretty big edge to

38:04the point where it at least should be

38:06where it opened. Now that that comes

38:08down into the minus130s, I think you

38:10have to consider the Tigers. It's just a

38:13far better spot for the Tigers pitching

38:16wise playing at home. DJ Hurst, who

38:19knows what you're going to get. Nat's

38:20bullpen we know is bad. So Brian, what

38:23are we looking at for a Tigers money

38:24line right now? Uh we're looking at

38:26about uh 133 right now.

38:31>> Yeah, I I again I'm going to go do my

38:34due diligence. That shouldn't be that. I

38:36I I think this should be where it

38:37opened. Um based on the in, you know,

38:39kind of the intangibles. So I will take

38:41the Tigers, which leaves Blue Jays

38:43Orioles to you, Brian. Find us a winner

38:46in this game at Camden Yards tonight.

38:48>> Yeah, I think Minnesota's the best

38:49player on the board. Um, if you can get

38:53130 or less on Detroit, I think that's a

38:55very good play. Um, in the other game, I

38:59prefer Boss. Um, I think a lot of the

39:01Detroit or the B the B Boulder wasn't

39:04expected to go to the playoffs. Toronto

39:06was Toronto's got a lot of veterans. Uh,

39:09they got you Savage out there. He's only

39:11going to pitch a couple innings. Uh, I

39:12know it can get five innings out of Boss

39:15and uh, you're getting him in a pickup

39:17situation. So, I'll take Baltimore minus

39:19the 110.

39:22All right, let's uh so three games,

39:24three opinions, and three different

39:26games. Let's see if we can run the table

39:28on these. Um before we go, uh once

39:31again, you know, double play package is

39:33up on the site. A lot of good specials.

39:36Tokyo Brandon's going to have some plays

39:37in Asian baseball that go for us here in

39:39the States early in the morning. So,

39:41keep an eye on that. Coupon code blitz

39:44100 if you're interested in my full NFL

39:46season. off to a 4-0 start in the NFL in

39:49the regular season. 8-2 if you count my

39:51preseason plays. That's number one on

39:53the site for NFL plus 23

39:5877 units. I had it written down. Of

40:00course, I can't find it, but anyway,

40:02it's pretty good. So, uh, check that out

40:04if you are interested in NFL football.

40:06Brian, anything to promote before we get

40:08out of here?

40:08>> Yeah, I went back and checked since

40:10August 1st last year. I'm up about 140

40:13net units, which is number one overall

40:16for all sports. Uh off to a great start

40:19in uh NFL and college uh college

40:22football. And we know what we've done on

40:24on the season for baseball. I will point

40:26out that tomorrow's $2 Tuesday. Um

40:30>> so uh yep. Or $5 Tuesday, excuse me. It

40:33used to be $2 Tuesday. Used to be used

40:35to be $2 Tuesday.

40:36>> Yes, it did. Yes, it did.

40:37>> But uh that's coming up. And so if

40:40you're looking for a longer term

40:41package, just wait a couple days on me

40:43because I'm passing today. Tomorrow's

40:46$5. Yeah, we're just trying to save you

40:48a little bit of money.

40:50>> Yeah, we will uh I we will have the the

40:52comment section working again tomorrow.

40:54So sorry we couldn't interact with you

40:56in the chat today. Um I I think the

40:58links just broke. It's uh always seems

41:01to happen on Monday morning. I don't

41:02know how the how does the how does the

41:04software know that it's Monday? Like

41:06it's like it just seems like Monday

41:08morning, you know, that we come in and

41:10and stuff breaks. So, we'll have that

41:12fixed by tomorrow. We'll get your

41:13comments back. And of course, we need

41:15your com we need the chat tomorrow

41:17because we have a normal show. We have a

41:19full We have a full uh full slate of

41:21games for today. Abbreviated card, but

41:24we're still going to pump out a

41:25three-teamer here. Uh Brian is going to

41:27go with Orioles minus 110. I'm going to

41:31go with Tigers - 133. Tokyo Brandon with

41:34Twins minus 118. Let's hit that one and

41:38we'll come back tomorrow and try to do

41:39it again. Back at 9:00 a.m. Eastern for

41:42more total bases. Thanks for hanging out

41:43with us today. We'll see you guys in the

41:45morning.