Full transcript
Yankees/Diamondbacks
0:03All right, welcome in. It is Friday.
0:05It's time for Total Bases, the full
0:08slate back. Um, full league back in
0:10action. New series to talk about. Uh,
0:13first we'll talk about Thursday. Brian
0:14Leonard, how was your day?
0:16>> Uh, good day. I won the football game as
0:19my free play on the site. I, uh, went
0:21two and one on selections.
0:23Unfortunately, the only loser was the
0:25one I used on the parlay. So, that was
0:27the Mets. So, uh, winning day overall.
0:30Happy with it. Uh, nothing big
0:32yesterday. No, no, 3% or higher, but,
0:36uh, it's always nice to have a winning
0:37day.
0:38>> Yeah, it was an uneventful day for me as
0:40well. I split a pair of 3enters. Um,
0:43both were like reduced juice, I think.
0:46Um, ended up losing like a tenth of a
0:48unit. So, pretty much a nothing day for
0:51me. Uh, but hey, any day you don't
0:53really lose in this, that's a that
0:56that's a good day if you can. string
0:58that along. It is a grind. Um I've had
1:01splits I think most days this week
1:03except for Monday when I when I won a
1:05football play. So again, that's that's
1:07going to be okay long term. Tokyo
1:08Brandon as I expected. See the sometimes
1:11these people don't think I know what I'm
1:13talking about. I said yesterday I said
1:15Grant Taylor would would come in and do
1:17whatever he needed for the White Sox to
1:18get a win. And on Tuesday I said now is
1:21the time to buy Tokyo Brandon. Get him
1:23before he goes on a run. I I wake up
1:26this morning. I see you go six and one
1:28yesterday. I'm not surprised at all. Uh
1:30so shout out to you for a great day.
1:32>> Yes.
1:32>> Are you checking my record?
1:34>> I was actually I was actually checking
1:36mine. I was actually checking mine just
1:38to uh
1:38>> But I was at the top so you couldn't
1:40miss it. No, I'm just kidding.
1:41>> Yeah. The only the only reason I do that
1:43is I have to make sure they they grade
1:45the AAA plays appropriately. So any any
1:48time I have AAA, I make sure because
1:50it's an obscure league and and that
1:52sometimes it gets misgraded or doesn't
1:54get graded. really that never gets
1:56misgraded, but sometimes it it doesn't
1:58get graded. So, I just wanted to make
2:00sure that they uh got Round Rock in
2:02Columbus, correct? And there I see you
2:04at 6 and one. So, shout out to you.
2:06>> Yeah. Well, MLB was 3 and 0 and actually
2:09uh two of them were kind of lucky cuz I
2:11had the under 11 and a half in the
2:13Rockies game and that that hit 11 that
2:16hit seven in the second inning and it
2:18hit 11 in the sixth inning and then it
2:20just died after that. So, I got lucky to
2:21win the under and then I got lucky to
2:24kind of lucky to win the Red Sox. So,
2:26and I also had the Angels plus one and a
2:28half because I knew that Minnesota
2:31would be really flat after that hard
2:34battle with the Yankees the day before
2:36and they use six bullpen guys. So, uh
2:38yeah, I felt pretty good yesterday and
2:40uh my Asian going well as well. So,
2:43yeah, it was a good day. It's nice to
2:45have good days, you know, cuz when
2:47you're on a losing streak, you feel like
2:48nothing can go right. You just feel like
2:50you're in a quagmire, like quicksand or
2:53something. So, yeah, it feels pretty
2:54good to get off that losing streak.
2:57>> TV, they don't ask how, only how many.
3:00That's what we're trying to do is find
3:01some more winners today. Uh, it looks
3:03like we're finally Yeah, I don't know
3:05why this is uh the chat is taking so
3:08long to sort of populate today. Um, but
3:10it looks Well, we're we're going to get
3:12started regardless. So, uh,
3:14>> let's go. Again, let's uh and again, we
3:16we we've got to mention uh par. Listen,
3:19I think yesterday I I don't actually
3:21don't remember what happened for the
3:22parlay. The point is we didn't hit it.
3:24Uh we're going to keep plugging away. Um
3:26like I said, I think I think we have
3:28some parlay winners in our future. We
3:30are are kind of overdue at this point.
3:33So, uh let's try to hit one today. We're
3:35going to start out in the desert
3:36tonight. Tokyo Brandon, we have uh
3:39national TV here. the entire country
3:40will get this on MLB network unless you
3:44you know live in the uh demog unless you
3:46live in the uh market of one of these
3:48teams and I believe you get it on
3:49wherever you would would get that game.
3:52Uh but it's Yankees Diamondbacks Yankees
3:54heading out to the desert. they lose in
3:57in somewhat I mean it they they should
4:00have lost on on Wednesday but the
4:03fashion in which they lost coming back
4:05getting the big hit taking the lead
4:07multiple times in extra innings only to
4:09fall short little disappointing for them
4:11but I still think they've been playing
4:12great ball of late the Diamondbacks
4:14these are games that they need um not
4:16much room for error if they have any
4:18hope of catching the Padres so Yankees
4:21Dbacks in the desert tonight Tokyo
4:22Brandon kick us off
4:24>> I'm coming out with a bang here. This is
4:26going to be my parlay leg. So, uh I like
4:29the Diamondbacks here and I like them a
4:30lot. Uh I'm going to take them plus one
4:33and a half and I think it's about minus
4:35155. Um the
4:40>> TB, we just lost we just lost your uh
4:43you
4:44>> if you look if you look at how the
4:46Diamondbacks
4:48how the pitchers have faced each other.
4:50Uh Cole has been absolutely slammed by
4:53Nolan Areronado, James McCann. Uh he's
4:57been slammed by some of these batters
4:59and Rodriguez has like immaculate stats
5:03against these Yankees. So that's one
5:05thing. Uh another thing is the bullpen
5:08discrepancy. I've got Arizona's bullpen
5:10in current form at three and uh can't
5:13overlook the fact that Arizona is 43 and
5:1535 at home. Uh, granted the Yankees are
5:1846 and 32 on the road, which is pretty
5:21darn good for a road record. Uh, but I
5:24like Rodriguez better than Cole and uh,
5:26I like the Diamondbacks bullpen better
5:28and I like I I like the home team here.
5:31I think they're getting slighted. So,
5:32give me that one and a half. That's
5:33going to be my parlay leg.
5:36>> All right, Brian. That's uh, the I'll
5:39let you go first. I I'm curious to see
5:41what you have to say about Yankees
5:42Diamondbacks. And as you break this g as
5:45you break this down, let me know what
5:47kind of price Tokyo Brandon's looking at
5:49for that plus one and a half.
5:50>> Yeah, plus one and a half is looking to
5:52be about a minus 155 right now.
5:55>> Okay, for a parlay, I'll take it.
5:57>> We're looking at U Cole against
6:00Rodriguez. Rodriguez the lefty. He's
6:01been excellent all season long,
6:03especially at home.
6:04>> Uh Cole's about a one
6:07125 favorite with a total of eight to
6:09the under. And I'm kind of with you. I'm
6:13looking to fade um Garrick Cole here.
6:17He's got a 54 average game score on the
6:20season, but his last four starts have
6:21all been below that. He got blown out
6:23last time against the Mets. An 18 36 49
6:2751.
6:29Um the 18 is his worst start of the
6:32season. you go back to uh he played he
6:36played Cleveland in uh
6:40June in early June he had a 29 bounced
6:44back with a 47
6:46then he played Detroit he had a 29
6:47bounced back with a 36 so he's not a guy
6:51who has bounced back from bad starts and
6:55like I said he's uh he's had two bad
6:58starts in a row San Diego hit him pretty
7:00well and then the Mets and uh the Mets
7:02haven't done anything since pretty much.
7:04But, uh, I'm in agreement. Uh, Rodriguez
7:07is a lefty and he's been very good at
7:09home all season long and he's been a
7:11nice money maker for them. He it he's
7:13been their uh consistently best pitcher
7:16all season long. And with a team with
7:18Scott Webb on your team, uh, that's
7:21saying something because, uh, he's a
7:23very good pitcher in his own right.
7:26Arizona is uh needs the game needs the
7:30game more because the Yankees are going
7:32to make the playoffs regardless. And as
7:34I said a few days ago, now they're trail
7:37um Tampa Bay by five games with 10 games
7:39to go. Uh
7:42even though they were going to be
7:43favored in these games, I knew it'd be
7:45tough to handle. The Yankees would love
7:47to win the division, but as long as
7:49they're in the playoffs, that's all that
7:51matters for them. And the Dbacks right
7:53now, they need every win they could get.
7:54and they are at home here. Uh the
7:57bullpen is very well rested as both
7:59teams had yesterday off. In fact, on
8:01Wednesday, Arizona didn't really need
8:03their bullpen much either. So, you've
8:05got a really nice bullpen setup for
8:07Arizona. And Rodriguez, you know, he was
8:12like an afterthought coming into the
8:13season, but according to the fan graphs,
8:16uh the power rank, they have him as the
8:1827th best pitcher on the season.
8:21uh
8:22Judge um got hurt a couple games ago. I
8:26don't think he's going to be back for
8:27the regular season to be totally honest
8:29with you. And so uh he didn't do
8:32anything since he came back. So he's
8:33still not 100%. They're going to they're
8:35going to wait on him a little bit. So
8:37yeah, I like Arizona in this game and I
8:38think you're getting him at a pretty
8:39good price.
8:42>> Well, I guess we'll uh we'll get the
8:44discussion started early. I'm like
8:46pretty firmly on the other side here.
8:48Um, I don't know if I'll play this, but
8:50I'm I mean, this is why why we do the
8:52show is to get multiple opinions. So,
8:54I'm going to play devil's advocate on
8:55this one. Uh, Arizona has not played
8:58good baseball. I I mean, this t the last
9:01week or so, I feel like you watch this
9:03team, you can feel the season kind of
9:06kind of slipping away. Every game the
9:08Padres's win, it, you know, kind of
9:10makes it that much worse.
9:12>> They come in Yeah, they're they're I
9:14just want to make sure I they're four
9:16games back now. So like yeah, you could
9:19say like these are must-win games. I
9:21feel I almost feel like this is a little
9:24Marinersesque here where it was like
9:26again I I liked I liked how their
9:28schedule laid out and yes they were
9:30playing in games that they needed to win
9:32but not playing good ball. I think in
9:35hindsight now you look and say well the
9:36writing was on the wall in that A's
9:38series for the Mariners when they they
9:40they lost 304. It's kind of how I feel
9:42about the Diamondbacks the way they're
9:44playing right now. uh they've lost five
9:46of seven and these are not like the the
9:49teams they're losing to are not great
9:51baseball teams in that five of seven.
9:53Now we'll give them a break for the the
9:55Royals lost because it was the finale of
9:57a three-game set. So they did take the
9:59first two in that series but you know
10:02losing at home to the Rangers two of
10:04three. Okay, Rangers are in the mix.
10:05That's not a great ball club. Uh losing
10:07two of three at home to the Marlins,
10:10that team's been cooked for a little
10:11while now. That's not a really good
10:12baseball team. And now they're playing a
10:15t like the Yankees are a good baseball
10:16team. Even without Judge, like this is
10:19still one of the better teams in all of
10:22baseball. They're one of the best teams
10:24in the American League. They're still
10:26quality without Judge in my opinion. And
10:28and I thought about this as I was
Braves/Astros
10:30watching Max Scherzer earlier this week.
10:32these veteran guys that have been to the
10:35mountaintop and and and have been in the
10:39league for a very long time o understand
10:42how to get to the finish line of a
10:44regular season. And these are in my
10:47opinion these are not the guys that you
10:48want to fade in late September and then
10:51going into the playoffs. And I think
10:53Garrick Cole qualifies. He hasn't
10:54pitched great of late. last time out
10:56kind of got knocked around by the Mets.
10:58Time before that, he did complete seven
11:00innings, but he only, you know, he still
11:01gave up four runs.
11:04You know, three runs in the two starts
11:05prior. I I kind of feel like this is a
11:08like he he needs a good one in my
11:10opinion going into the postseason and
11:13these are the guys like that see the
11:14finish line and I think like I just
11:17think that this is a good spot for him.
11:19on the other side, like you know,
11:21Eduardo Rodriguez has had a fantastic
11:23season, but I'm not worried about
11:24playing against him. I I don't I don't
11:26think his his stuff is great at this
11:28point. I think he's been super fortunate
11:30to pitch as well as he has this year.
11:32And the Diamondbacks much worse against
11:34right-handed pitching. And and say what
11:36you want about Cole, he's still a
11:37quality right-handed pitcher. So, I I
11:39like the Yankees here. Like I said, just
11:41my my point of view, it is on my what I
11:44have a very long list of of potential
11:46stuff for clients today, but it's one of
11:49about nine angles I'm looking at. So,
11:51uh, good. You know, I think that's a
11:52good conversation. I think you got some
11:54good viewpoints. Uh, but hopefully for
11:56the parlay sake, DMbacks get it done. Go
11:58ahead, Brian.
11:59>> If the Diamondbacks win, Adam's gonna
12:01dress like me.
12:02>> Nope. If the Diamondbacks win, you just
12:05win a bat.
12:06>> More than that. Hey, uh I I did want to
12:08point out that uh Arizona's only got
12:10nine games to go and they're four games
12:12back. So, their their chances of getting
12:15in the playoffs is pretty remote, but uh
12:18and I still I still like them a little
12:20bit better in this game. I won't be on
12:22it personally overall, but yeah, this is
12:25a good discussion on this game.
12:28>> Yeah, definitely definitely got I think
12:30uh MLB Network handpicked the right game
12:33for that window, for that time slot. I
12:36mean, granted, there's not that many
12:37games to pick at the 10, you know, the
12:3810 o'clock window, but that is from a
12:40from a watching standpoint, that's going
12:42to be a really good one to watch.
12:45Listen, I I know the parlay hasn't done
12:48as well. And um you know, but like
12:51Patrick, so here's I I'll say this every
12:53once in a while. There's two ways to do
12:54it. One, you buy all the picks of your
12:58your handicapper and you play all of
13:00them. That's the only way that you can
13:03like if you're if you just pick and
13:05choose, I can't necessarily help you um
13:08win. Maybe you'll win, maybe you'll
13:10lose, but it is what it is. If you play
13:13them all, I can I I think I can say if
13:15you play every one of my baseball picks
13:17all season, I'm going to get you to the
13:18finish line with something. I'm pretty
13:20confident in saying that. The other way
13:22to do it is like what Patrick says here.
13:24He says, "Been picking and choosing what
13:25I want from you guys this week. Since
13:27Monday, I'm eight and one. Thank you
13:29guys for being the best morning baseball
13:30show on the internet. Even if you don't
13:32think we're the best, that is the way to
13:33do it. That's why I'm gonna come on here
13:36and give like if I like the Yankees, the
13:38other two guys like the Diamondbacks,
13:40I'm going to give my breakdown because
13:42you you you know I I think a lot of
13:44people watching this show are
13:47handicapping their own games. If you
13:48just want to be spoonfed the plays, head
13:50on over to Wager Talk. We have great
13:52specials. We have that for you. And we
13:55have a free play page with like 20 free
13:58plays.
13:58>> Yeah.
13:59>> Yeah. Sorry to interrupt.
14:02>> No, that's my that's my mini rant for
14:04the day. If if you if you want the plays
14:06exactly if you want to know exactly what
14:08I'm betting, exactly what Tokyo Brandon
14:09is betting, exactly what Brian Leonard
14:11is betting, we've got that. It's on
14:13Wager Talk. Again, there's great
14:16specials to to help with a discounted
14:18price there, but that's not for free.
14:20However, we give out a lot of free info
14:22on this show and we do give out some
14:24plays for free. Um, including a best bet
14:26from each of us each day. So, uh, had to
14:29get that out there. Alex Ram helping me
14:31helping us out in the chat. He says, "F
14:33the haters." I love that. Uh, best show
14:36on YouTube and giving lots of knowledge
14:38out. Lots of knowledge out. Can we talk?
14:41Braves Astros think this will be a very
14:44good game. Alex, I think you did find
14:46another very good game on the Friday
14:48slate. Braves Astros, Brian. This is uh
14:51looks to be very competitively priced.
14:54Uh this one's in Houston tonight.
14:56They're the Astros, man. They they've
14:58got work to do. Um so certainly a big
15:01one for the home team. Kick us off,
15:03Braves Astros. How do you see this one?
15:05>> Yeah, this is a division that nobody
15:07seems to want. Uh Texas is still a game
15:09behind. The Astros still lead, but they
15:11they're one game over 500 at 77 and 76.
15:15Uh they're exactly 39 and 39 at home. Um
15:20when you take a look at the expected win
15:22loss in this division, uh both Texas and
15:24Houston are supposed to be 72 and 81. So
15:28while we've spent all year making fun of
15:30the AL Central, the AL West may be even
15:32worse. In fact, there's not a team in
15:34the AL West that uh has a winning uh run
15:37differential. The best is Texas at minus
15:4039. So, uh, it's not been a good year
15:43for the American League other than the
15:44American League East. Let's just put it
15:46that way. Uh, when you're taking a look
15:48at this game, we've got Atlanta with
15:50Molly against Lambert for Houston. Uh,
15:54Molly's about a one
15:5717 favorite. Uh, total eight to the
16:00over, eight and a half to the under. Um,
16:02right in the middle there. Um, when you
16:05take a look at the Braves from a hitting
16:08standpoint, they've got their top two,
16:11three, four, five guys all hitting in
16:13the top 65 in Major League Baseball over
16:16the last week. They're hitting the ball
16:17very well right now. And even the guys
16:20at the end of the lineup, other than
16:21Kim, who ranks 319th, you know, you take
16:23a look at Riley, Shrimpsky, and Alby's,
16:26uh, they they've been decent. So, the
16:28hitting for Atlanta's been very good as
16:30of late. They are going with Tyler
16:32Molly. They did have yesterday off. So,
16:35uh, the everybody gets that extra rest
16:37from the bullpen and they're in pretty
16:39good bullpen shape here. Tyler Molly on
16:42the season, if you take a look at look
16:44at his splits, um, he's much better at
16:47home. 2.29 RAS goes to 5.61 on the road.
16:53And if you take a look at the advanced
16:54stats, there is a differential, but not
16:57that much. Uh, he's been a little bit
17:00lucky when he's pitched at home. Uh,
17:02from his game log standpoint, he's
17:04pitched very well as of late. You go
17:07back his last, what is this? Seven
17:09starts. Okay, he's got a 57, excuse me,
17:11a 53 game score on the season, but he's
17:14really hot, really hot right now. 64 63
17:1870 55 57 66 75.
17:22Uh, this is the best Tyler Miley we've
17:24seen in a while. And he has gotten on
17:26these kind of streaks in his career. um
17:29where he is clearly a good pitcher when
17:33he's healthy and that's something you
17:35always have to keep in mind here. Um on
17:39the other side we've got Lambert or
17:42Houston and Lambert was a guy that I
17:44really liked a lot earlier in the
17:45season. Uh he was very impressive and we
17:48were getting some good numbers on him.
17:50Not so sure that is the way it is right
17:53now from a hitting standpoint. They've
17:55got three guys in the top 100. They do
17:58have some guys. Cam Smith was really hot
18:00just a couple weeks ago. Now he's ranked
18:02416 over the last week. Christian
18:04Walker, another guy who was hot. He's
18:06cooled off 426.
18:08Um they did have to play yesterday. And
18:11uh Haters pitched to it the last three
18:13days. Bray's pitched to it the last
18:15three days. Uh take a quick look at
18:18Lambert
18:19from a split standpoint. He's uh better
18:22on the road than he is at home. And the
18:25advanced stats show that's Yeah.
18:28about even. I don't think there's any
18:30dichotomy there. And the game logs, he's
18:32at 54 on the season. Uh last two times
18:35out, 58 58. So he has bounced back a
18:38little bit. So we got two pitchers here
18:40that I like. And we're looking at the
18:44total as I said earlier, 8 12 to the
18:47under minus 120. That would probably be
18:50the way I go here. Even though that the
18:52Atlanta Braves are hitting really well
18:54right now, I like the way Molly's
18:56pitching and I think Lambert's a pretty
18:58good starter. So, uh, I'm leaning with
19:00the under on this one.
19:04>> Brian, the, uh, I think you can make a
19:07case the West is like quite a bit worse
19:10>> than the AL Central. There's not a
19:12single team in this division with a plus
19:14run differential that well which is the
19:16point you made. But like at least you
19:18got the White Socks at plus 36. The the
19:21Tigers amazingly plus 774 and the
19:23Guardians are right around even with run
19:25differential whereas the Astros sit in
19:27first place and came in first place uh
19:29with a negative 50. And the the segue
19:32I'll make back into this game is I I
19:35know that there's going to this is your
19:36your t this is like your prototype like
19:41Astros getting like a little bit too
19:43much love because they really need to
19:45win this game. Tokyo Brandon they're not
19:47the better team here. Like I that the
19:49Braves are are the clear better baseball
19:52team. I almost think you're getting them
19:54at a little bit of a discount. So I'm
19:56curious where you're at. Braves Astros.
19:59>> Yeah. Let me throw in a quick promo
20:00here. You can get a double play which is
20:03two of us three three days all access
20:06baseball and I'm my esteemed colleagues
20:09are putting their football plays on
20:10wager talk.com. I'm doing that on my own
20:13site. By the way, Friday night I have an
20:16Asian baseball show on my channel at
20:189:00 p.m. Eastern. So come check it out.
20:20My Asian baseball's on fire. Uh so
20:22that's the promo. Um I agree with you,
20:25Adam wholeheartedly. the the Braves are
20:27the much better team here. I've never
20:30been a Molly fan, but his
20:33and like watching him not really
20:35impressed by the eye test, but when you
20:38look at his uh expected numbers really
20:41good and I you know I so this is why
20:44it's good to like this is how I cap. I
20:47basically in my head I say this is what
20:50I expect and then I do my numbers and
20:52and see if I'm surprised or not. and
20:54Molly surprised me because I didn't
20:56expect him to be this good on the
20:58expected numbers which is expected uh
21:00expected RA and things like that. So, uh
21:04actually both of these pitchers pretty
21:06now Lambert's the opposite. So, I'm I've
21:08watched Lambert a couple times and he
21:09impressed me a lot more than he has in
21:11the past. And then I look at his
21:12expected numbers and it's like six
21:14points below Molly bullpen. Uh Atlanta
Red Sox/Rays
21:18has the edge and hitting Atlanta has a
21:20huge edge. I got Astros ranked 24 in
21:23current form in hitting. So, it's Braves
21:25are nothing for me, but I I haven't
21:28gotten there yet. But you're right,
21:30they're just the better team. Uh given
21:32all uh the whole totality of this cap.
21:37>> Yeah. Um so, I guess the thing I'll I'll
21:39say about Tyler Mi is he it's been so
21:42long since he's been healthy. Like, this
21:44was a I mean, h how many times has Tyler
21:47Mali been traded for by a contender?
21:49like the the league the collective
21:52thought around the league is that this
21:54guy is a legitimate starter because I
21:56think there's been like three occasions
21:58now in his career where a team went out
22:01and and gave someone up to get him at
22:03the trade deadline. The problem is he
22:06he's battled injury now for god four
22:10years. I I mean, you have to go back to
22:132022
22:15to find the last time this dude had a
22:17100red innings in a season. And this and
22:20this he's well over that this year. Um I
22:22I think he's hadundred
22:2538 innings at the big league just at the
22:27big league level this year. I I I don't
22:29even know. I think any I think he did
22:30have a rehab stint at different points
22:33in time this season. So, I I mean, I
22:36think that's like the thing that that
22:38maybe has some hidden value here with Mi
22:40is he was always supposed to be like a
22:43legitimate big league starter and he's
22:45healthy now. So, it doesn't really
22:47surprise me that he's throwing the ball.
22:48Well, you go to a a team like the
22:51Braves, who is a great pitching lab,
22:52always seems to get the most out of
22:54their pitchers and it it, you know, I I
22:56guess I'm not really surprised that he's
22:58that he's throwing it the way that he's
23:00throwing it. Um, the Braves just lost, I
23:03believe, three of four in their most
23:05recent series. So, I do think there's
23:08maybe a little bit of urgency here for
23:10them. Granted, they have a nice lead
23:11over the Phillies. They still have a
23:12four-ame lead, but they've lost three of
23:15four. They just lost two of three from
23:17the Cubs. If they go and struggle this
23:20weekend in Houston, suddenly it might
23:22become an issue uh for them. So, I do
23:24think that there's some urgency in these
23:26games. And Tokyo Brandon, I'm in full
23:28agreement with you. They are just like
23:30head and shoulders a better team. Brian
23:33pointed out the Astros played yesterday.
23:34The the Braves didn't. I just don't know
23:37how you can't I I I can't find a way to
23:39take the Astros here. It's got to be the
23:41Braves or nothing.
23:42>> I will point out that uh this was also
23:45added a few days ago. The Houston Astros
23:47have been very good against over 500
23:49teams. They're 28 and 21. Uh they're
23:52actually better against uh winning teams
23:53than the Braves are. The Braves are 35
23:55and 28. So,
23:56>> good point. Um, Astros have been able to
23:58win these type of games. The Braves with
24:00a four-game lead with nine games to go.
24:03I think they're going to start setting
24:04up. They've already already talked about
24:06sale was moved. Uh, they're going to try
24:08to set up their rotation a little bit.
24:10Whereas, uh, Houston doesn't have that
24:13ability. Houston needs to win. They need
24:15to fight off uh, Texas and they need to
24:18claim a wild card spot if they if they
24:20don't win the division. So, game's more
24:22important to Houston. Uh but uh yeah,
24:25the Braves clearly the Braves are the
24:27better team on the season. No doubt
24:28about it. You can just name just about
24:30any team in the National League that
24:32does isn't the uh the Colorado Rockies
24:34and their counterpart in the American
24:36League. They're all better than that. So
24:38uh but this is not a non-conference
24:41game. This is uh in in the National
24:43League and we'll see what happen. It it
24:46the line is pretty close to where I
24:48would have made it.
24:50>> I think the series is more important to
24:52Houston. I think this is a pretty
24:53important game tonight for the Braves.
24:54Can't Can't be losing four or five. You
24:56You just set yourself up for like a
24:59downward spiral that you just can't have
25:02going into the final two weeks of the
25:03season. I I personally think that this
25:05is probably the biggest game the rest of
25:06the way for the Braves. I think if they
25:08can win this one, they probably exhale a
25:10little bit, but this is a in my opinion
25:12a big one for Atlanta. All right,
25:15Freeird, happy Friday. Freeird said he's
25:17going to the Auburn Florida game this
25:19weekend. That's awesome. Jealous of
25:21that. That's great. Have a great time. I
25:24don't where where I I offhand forget
25:26where that game is, but I think it's
25:28might be in Auburn. Uh where wherever
25:30you're going. Uh shout out to you. Have
25:32a great time. Uh he wants to talk to
25:36Rays. Interesting game. So he wants to
25:37talk Red Sox Rays. Uh Freeird says he
25:40always plays it uh plays totally when he
25:43plays totally. He delivers wins. But the
25:45Rays are playing good ball right now.
25:47Huge blowout yesterday for the Rays.
25:49Yes, they did end up running it up
25:51against the A's. Completed the sweep.
25:53Tokyo Brandon. The Rays are red hot, but
25:56the Red Sox got some momentum with the
25:58way that they won that game last night.
26:00Uh, raise Red Sox to you. How do you see
26:02this one?
26:04>> Yeah. Uh, I'll make this very quick
26:06because, you know, full disclosure,
26:08there's no way I'm betting this game
26:09because it's just a deadlock for me.
26:11I've got the Rays obviously hitting
26:13better. Their bats are pretty hot right
26:15now. I got them ranked nine where I got
26:17Boston's ranked 21. I did have Boston
26:20yesterday. I felt pretty lucky they came
26:21back at the end. Uh but bad luck and
26:24good luck happens at the same rate. The
26:25rest is up to your knowledge. So, um I
26:29got Boston better than Tampa though with
26:31bullpen starting pitcher uh and a bunch
26:35of other uh factors that I measure here.
26:38It it lights up for Boston pretty
26:40heavily, but I really don't want to take
26:41them because I just don't think they're
26:44better than the Rays. Uh so I I'm
26:46completely deadlocked in this one. So,
26:48I'm not going to play it. I'll leave it
26:50to you guys who probably have a better
26:52take.
26:55>> Brian, raise Red Sox to you.
26:57>> Well, the line service is showing Ranger
27:00Suarez. Have we heard an update on this?
27:04>> That's actually a good point.
27:06>> That That's a good point. I just I just
27:08read the request. Um I do believe it's
Orioles/Brewers
27:10Ranger Suarez here. I just read the the
27:12the question pretty much verbatim. Uh
27:15but yes, I have Ranger Suarez as well
27:17and I've got Ian Seymour on the other
27:19side for the race.
27:21>> Yeah, money has come in on Tampa Bay um
27:24as we speak. Uh I was leaning towards
27:27Tampa Bay in this game. A couple of
27:28lefties Boston Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has
27:32been outstanding against divisional
27:34rivals uh this season.
27:37And although Suarez, I I like Suarez
27:41better than Seymour. Um, as a whole, I
27:44like the Tampa Bay coaching better. I
27:47like the Tampa Bay depth better. Uh, but
27:50now we're looking at uh, you know, 132
27:54maybe for a Tampa Bay with a total of
27:57seven and a half heavily to the under or
27:59a seven. Uh, Tampa Bay is very good at
28:02home. They're very good in the first
28:03game of a series when they're playing a
28:05divisional rival. Uh, a lot of positive
28:08things historically for Tampa Bay in
28:10this game, but the way the line is
28:13moving because this line it was
28:15originally you were getting like 108 110
28:18or something for Boston. Now you can
28:19get, you know, one 115. I even see a 120
28:24out there here locally in Vegas. Um,
28:28money's coming in on Tampa Bay. So, uh,
28:30I I may have missed I may have missed
28:33the, uh, the boat on this. We'll have to
28:35see where the line goes, but I prefer
28:37Tampa Bay in this game. I just to get
28:40Tampa Bay the way they're playing,
28:41fighting for that division title and
28:44getting them in a discounted price here,
28:46I was interested, but seems to be some
28:49other people were interested in that,
28:50too. So, while I was leaning Tampa Bay
28:53before, uh, right now I'm maybe have to
28:56sit on the sideline.
28:59TB, I I kind of agree with you where
29:01it's like this is this is a a really
29:04tough game to to I think pick a side. I
29:06think at this point uh as Brian pointed
29:09out after a little bit of line move, I
29:11think I just would default to taking
29:13plus money with the side here. It is it
29:15is that much of a coin flip to me. Uh I
29:18do see a little value on the over. Um my
29:20I make this 7.3. Again, even that is is
29:24minimal. Um but you know these games
29:27where you're getting a seven flat on the
29:29total which is what you're getting here
29:32like you can get to 33 you're free
29:33rolling. Um that that would the fact
29:36that this isn't seven and a half and it
29:38is seven in my opinion does show some
29:40value on the total o over. Uh, so that
29:43is again a very slight lean to the over
29:45for me and at this point I'd probably
29:47roll with the team getting plus money
29:49because I too do not have be splitting
29:51hairs in my opinion to try to really
29:53find a way in for either side. This is
29:56just a a good pitching matchup. Two good
29:58teams, very evenly matched teams. Um, so
30:01yeah, over or pass for me here.
30:05Okay, let's get back to the chat. Let's
30:08get back to the chat. Um,
30:12I will Okay. Well, we've got
30:15we've got um
30:17>> asking for the Dodgers a lot.
30:19>> Now, I'm going to go
30:20>> either now or later.
30:21>> I'm going to go to Well, TB, I'm going
30:23to give you Do you know what you want to
30:24put in the parlay yet?
30:26>> I already did it. Yeah. First game.
30:28>> Oh, I'm sorry. I I I wrote that down.
30:30Yeah, that that was you.
30:31>> Let's do Brian's parlay leg.
30:33>> Do you know what you want to put in the
30:34parlay yet? If not, I'll I'll go with a
30:36game.
30:37>> Yeah, you go.
30:39So, I don't know what I'm I don't know
30:42what I'm gonna do. Let's just get the
30:44Dodgers game out of the way or be
30:46honest, Tokyo Brandon. I got to be
30:48honest, Tokyo Brandon, I don't really
30:49want to talk about the Dodgers. They're
30:50a $3 favorite unless someone's really
30:53adamant about talking about that game.
30:55I'm gonna I'm gonna go to different
30:56games. There's
30:58>> that's just not a game. There are just
30:59so many better games to talk about.
31:01>> Let's entertain the people.
31:04>> And I didn't see I gotta be honest. I
31:06didn't I think I saw one person ask for
31:07the Dodgers. So, I'm going to go to a
31:09game that has I I think just a little
31:11bit more to to chew on. Uh and it's also
31:15one of about nine I have opinion on.
31:18>> Uh so I will I will like I said, Braves
31:20could be a parlay league for me. Uh the
31:22Orioles could potentially be a parlay
31:25league for me. I find this game very
31:27interesting. They are hosting the
31:29Brewers. They just played a great game
31:32earlier this week. um or great game, I'm
31:35sorry, great series for them. Went into
31:37uh City Field in a series that they were
31:41oddly in my opinion like a pretty big
31:43underdog in each game and they came out
31:46and and I thought played really well in
31:49that series. They go in, they sweep the
31:51Mets, and they are right back in the
31:53mix. And what do they get? Uh what's
31:55their reward, Brian? It's playing the
31:58team that is arguably the best team in
32:00the National League. Certainly one of
32:02the best teams in the National League, a
32:04team that is outwardly said that they
32:07are in it for the long haul. They're
32:09trying to win the number one seed in the
32:11NL. I think it's very important for them
32:13to win the number one seed in the NL
32:15knowing that you're going to have to
32:17probably go through the Dodgers in the
32:19playoffs. So, Brewers fell short
32:21yesterday. They lose the finale to the
32:22Pirates. Now, they end up in Baltimore.
32:25So, Brewers, uh, Orioles, Brian, kick us
32:28off with this one. Yeah, we've got May
32:30going for Milwaukee. Uh he's just
32:32surpassed his amount of innings that he
32:34had last year. Not so we're not too
32:36worried about that, although the
32:38playoffs are ahead. Baltimore's going
32:40with Kate Povich. Um
32:45he's been a disappointment. He was
32:46supposed to been one of these guys
32:48coming in the Orioles rotation. They've
32:49been caught on for years.
32:53Extreme splits this year. He hasn't
32:55pitched very often, but at home he's got
32:57a 0.7 to1 RA with a 12 to1 strikeout to
33:01walk ratio.
33:03But when you take a look at his advanced
33:05stats,
33:06uh they're good, but they're not that
33:09good on the on the road, 6.1 RA. Um if
33:14you take a look at his game log on the
33:15season, he's had a 47.
33:18Um this is only his third game pitching
33:22in Baltimore this season. and he faced
33:23the Angels had a 66, San Francisco 71.
33:28Two of the lesser hitting teams in Major
33:31League Baseball. And I think that's why
33:35I don't believe into his that RA he's
33:37had at home because the advanced stats
33:39show that he was a little bit lucky. And
33:41the Angels and the Giants are not great
33:43hitting teams. Now, Milwaukee on the
33:45other hand is a very good hitting team.
33:48They don't hit for a lot of power, but
33:50they're a quality quality opposition.
33:53And I, if I'm playing this one, I am
33:55looking to lay. We're looking at May
33:57here at about a 140 favorite, total
34:00eight and a half. Um, talked about one
34:04team being better than another. Uh,
34:06obviously Milwaukee is much better than
34:08Baltimore is. That loss yesterday means
34:11that Milwaukee has to go five and four,
34:14I believe, to have a 100 wins on the
34:16season. Uh they're not saying that
34:18that's a goal, but you know it's a goal
34:20and obviously as you mentioned having a
34:22better record than the Dodgers is very
34:24important to them. Um I think they will
34:28continue to uh play well and I like them
34:32here against Baltimore. Would I have
34:34liked to get them at a little bit lesser
34:36number? Sure. But this is one team on in
34:39Milwaukee where you take a look at what
34:41they've done on the road this year. Um
34:44they're 43 and 32. Uh they've been
34:46excellent at home, win 67% of their home
34:48games, but they're up 197 runs on the
34:52season where the Dodgers are up 179.
34:55They deserve to be favored here. Don't
34:56know if I believe in the Orioles. Uh
34:59yeah, they've gotten hot a little bit
35:00lately, but they're still a team that's
35:01been outscored by 26 runs on the season.
35:04Uh they have 75 wins on the year. Their
35:07expected wins were 74 and they've got a
35:10losing home record. So give me if I'm
35:12going to play it, I'm playing Milwaukee
35:14in this one.
35:16So, I think the appeal for me a little
35:19bit earlier today was I felt like
35:21Orioles plus one and a half was was in a
35:23playable range. And I guess I'm not
35:26surprised, but I it may have knocked it
35:29out of of range for me. The Orioles have
35:31actually been the team, at least since
35:34we've come on the show, that's taken a
35:35little money because that that plus one
35:36and a half is now worse odds than it was
35:40when we came on the show. Um, that could
35:42change throughout the day. Uh, I think
35:44for me like to get involved, I would
35:46would have wanted the run at a at a
35:49cheaper price because I do think that
Cubs/Reds
35:50this is probably a close game. Um, think
35:53it's competitive. I Povich is kind of be
35:56he spent a lot of time at Norfol this
35:58year. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. So,
36:02he he's not necessarily like someone I'm
36:04all in on, but I I think the the Orioles
36:08are going to show up to play here.
36:09They've they've kind of again I just I I
36:11like the way that they played earlier
36:13this week on the road. Now they bring it
36:15to, you know, to their home ballpark.
36:17The Brewers had to play yesterday.
36:20I I I don't know. I said I thought there
36:21was a little underdog value on the
36:23Orioles. But Tokyo Brandon, I'm curious
36:25to see what you have to say because I
36:26think Brian makes a lot of good points
36:28here as well.
36:30>> Yeah, I'm a little torn on this one. Uh
36:33look, I think the Brewers are a World
36:35Series caliber team. I don't know if
36:37they're going to make it there cuz
36:39uh yeah, I mean it's a long road. It's a
36:43tough haul. But any team that that's not
36:45really a home run hitting team that is
36:48number one in MLB and hitting it means
36:50that they're hitting smart. They're
36:52they're they're just destroying pitchers
36:54confidence by not taking walks and just
36:58a smart small ball kind of team. And
37:00pitchers hate those teams because it
37:02runs their pitch count up and it's just
37:04very annoying. This this is the kind of
37:06team that annoys pitchers in the
37:08playoffs. Um I Milwaukee looks like a
37:11World Series team to me. Uh and
37:16but about today I I would be comfortable
37:18taking the Orioles with the plus one and
37:20a half here. It's only minus 145. You
37:23know, besides the hitting, yes,
37:25Milwaukee is the number one hitting team
37:27in MLB, but uh Orioles are not that bad.
37:31Um, I I like the Orioles bullpen better
37:34than Milwaukey's bullpen, for sure. And
37:37uh I like I like Povich better than I
37:39like May. If you look at May's uh
37:42statistics against these oral batters,
37:44he's been crushed. He's been bludgeoned.
37:47Uh again, the caveat is we don't know
37:50when those stats are. They could, you
37:52know, Dustin May's been in the league
37:53for a long time. Um could be seven years
37:56ago for all we know. But uh I do know
37:59that I like Povich better. Uh, could be
38:01a high-scoring game in my opinion. Uh, I
38:04would feel comfortable with an over or
38:06maybe Orioles plus one and a half. I
38:08probably will not bet it though.
38:11>> Yeah, TB. I I kind, you know, Povich
38:14obviously you're going to need to catch
38:15him on one of his better days, but
38:17Justin May doesn't do a ton for me. Uh,
38:20bottom, you know, one of the worst hard
38:22hit percentages in the league. I I I
38:25understand he's had flashes this year,
38:27but he's he's just not a guy that I'm
38:30trying to lay a$140 on the road with.
38:32So, um I I don't know. I Orioles I'm not
38:35I'm not going to lock it in. I I am
38:36looking at Orioles. Like I said, I have
38:38like I went from earlier this week
38:41thinking that there wasn't much value at
38:42all. Um felt like the books did a really
38:45good job and I I was having a hard time
38:46finding my way into series earlier in
38:48the week. Now I've got like nine things
38:50I like today. I'm like on the other end
38:51of the spectrum. So, we'll have to uh
38:53pair that down, but one of those nine is
38:56the Orioles for what it's worth. Okay.
38:58>> The Brewers have had the best record in
39:00MLB for two years in a row, and they get
39:02zero respect.
39:05>> Yeah, they have been the most winning
39:06team in Major League Baseball since the
39:08beginning of last year, Tokyo Brandon,
39:10that is fact. That is a good point. Um,
39:13they're just very good at racking up
39:15regular season wins. And I think that's
39:17another reason deep. Yeah, that I think
39:20that's another reason you're going to
39:21see them finish strong. Even even if the
39:23games are even if they're already in, I
39:25do think that the Brewers are one of
39:27those teams that they're going to play
39:29out the whole 162, they want that one
39:31seed and um you're going to see an
39:33effort from them kind of regardless of
39:35the magnitude of the game. Okay, Brian,
39:39do you have an idea of where you want to
39:41go for the parlay at this point?
39:43>> Yeah, I will. Uh I I just want to point
39:45out and I mentioned this the other day.
39:47Um there's going to be a lot of pitchers
39:50on teams that are not going to the
39:51playoffs that they're going to limit
39:52them. Lee Lehey's uh pitched three
39:55innings the other day, gave him a limit
39:58of 45 pitches. He won't be in there very
40:00long. Uh I don't expect Burns to be in
40:02there very long for Cincinnati. And
40:05that's the game I'm going to take a look
40:06at. We've got Holmes for the Cubs
40:08against Burns for Cincinnati. Right now,
40:10the Cubs are about a 128 favorite with a
40:14total of uh eight and a half to the
40:16over, nine to the under. Split equal
40:18split there. Um Klay Holmes has got a 58
40:22game score on the season. He's been a
40:24little bit up and down. He he last two
40:26starts not been that great. He had a 47
40:28against Pittsburgh and a 20 when he went
40:31to pitch in Miami, but the two starts
40:33before that 7079. So, he he's not been
40:36very consistent. But if you're only
40:39going to get three innings out of
40:41Cincinnati starting pitcher, and I don't
40:44think we're going to get a full five out
40:45of him. I just he's got too many innings
40:47right now and there's no reason to do
40:49it. Um I kind of like Chicago here. If
40:53you take a look at what they've done on
40:54the season, um we've talked about how
40:57good this team is. If you take a look on
40:59the year, they're basically between
41:02their net positive in runs and the Reds
41:05Red's net negative,
41:07they're looking at 300 more runs in the
41:10season when they played 150 games. I'm
41:12not a brain surgeon, but that's two more
41:14that's two more runs per game they're
41:17better than than Cincinnati Reds are.
41:20And Cincinnati's bullpen, um, they've
41:22had some success with the closers. I
41:24mean, the closers had another nice
41:25season, but overall, I don't trust that
41:28bullpen. I would rather trust the uh the
41:32bullpen for the Cubs, even though the
41:34Cubs have had a lot of bullpen issues
41:35this year, too. So, uh I'm going to play
41:38the Cubs as a small road favorite here
41:40in about the 120,
41:43127, 128 range, something like that. Uh
41:47because I think people just see Burns on
41:49the on the schedule, they go, that's the
Blue Jays/Rangers
41:51guy I want to bet. Well, I don't think
41:53think he's going to be in the game very
41:54long. So, we could take advantage of
41:56that until people um see that coming and
41:59then the line goes up. So, we're trying
42:00to beat the closing line. And as long as
42:02you're beating the closing line,
42:04regardless of your win loss streak,
42:06you're in pretty good shape.
42:08>> I'm 100% with you here, Brian. This is
42:10this is one that's on the long list for
42:13me today. I too like the Cubs uh for a
42:16lot of the reasons that you pointed out.
42:18Tokyo Brand and Cubs reds to you. Are
42:21you seeing it the same way?
42:23>> Yeah, basically. Let me do a quick
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42:36baseball all access. All of us are hot.
42:39Uh so either two you pick, you're
42:42probably going to end up on top. So grab
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42:49Uh, just scroll down, you'll see a
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42:55as well. So, lots of baseball deals.
42:58Adam and Brian are doing football deals
43:00as well. So, I keep it very short. I'm
43:04total totally in agreeance with Brian.
43:07And actually, the books are agreeing too
43:10because Chase Burns outs recorded is
43:12nine and a half over under. So, will he
43:15record an out in the fourth inning? I
43:17would even think about going under in
43:19that. So, uh they have no reason to risk
43:22him risk his health or anything. Uh but
43:25yeah, Cubs are better at everything
43:27except starting pitcher and uh if you're
43:29only limiting your starting pitcher to
43:31three innings, uh your advantage is
43:33basically nothing. So, yeah, I agree
43:36with both of you on that one.
43:38>> Yeah,
43:39>> I think Adam said Cubs, too. Yeah. Yeah.
43:40>> Yeah. You're getting you're going to
43:43have to get basically five innings here
43:45from the Red's bullpen. The Red's
43:46bullpen is not good at all. I mean,
43:48they're just this is just going to be
43:50depth arms. They like like there there's
43:53going to be zero like winning game plan
43:56here from the Reds. Like don't don't
43:58mistake this. Like I'm I'm sure they'd
44:00love to win the game. Like if they are
44:02playing well, like I I don't think
44:04anyone on the field is not trying to win
44:06the game, but it's like you're probably
44:08gonna see three to four innings from
44:09Burns and then it's going to be like
44:11let's just spread the innings around.
44:13That's what you're gonna see the rest of
44:14the year from the Reds. There's going to
44:15be very little competitive like game
44:19planning from from from Cincinnati and
44:22great, you know,
44:22>> lot of business decisions.
44:25>> Yeah. Yeah. But also, it's business
44:26decisions. It's like that there's guys
44:28that they probably want to see in a big
44:30spot against a team like the Cubs. C can
44:32you, you know, can you go in and get
44:34high leverage outs? The answer is
44:35probably no, knowing who their their
44:37pitchers are, knowing who, you know,
44:39they've had they've had far and away one
44:41of the worst AAA teams all year. like
44:43they they don't have they're not sitting
44:45on like hidden talent in that
44:47organization, at least not at the AAA
44:49level. So, anyone that's getting quote
44:51unquote getting their chance here, not
44:53good. No, they don't have it. Um Klay
44:57Holmes, you throw out the Marlin start,
44:59he's been fantastic and I I wouldn't be
45:01that surprised if he pitches well again
45:03here. Brian, go ahead.
45:04>> Yeah, Brady Singer, we all I well, at
45:06least two of us liked him yesterday and
45:08he did not pitch well. Um, and that was
45:13bad because they had to use four of
45:15their relievers for double digit pitches
45:17yesterday and they'd already the bullpen
45:19had been last three days worked pretty
45:21well. So, yeah, they they may have to go
45:24with a bullpen game today and they won't
45:27have uh Ashcraft probably won't go. Uh,
45:30Johnson may not go. He's pitched to the
45:32last three, Garcia. So, they're in some
45:35problems in that bullpen. Um, Pagan, I
45:38don't think Pagan or Burke will probably
45:40go unless you know they use them as when
45:42when they're winning. I don't expect
45:44them to be winnings and and Anton has
45:46pitched to the last three as well. So,
45:48uh, yeah, it's not the nicest setup here
45:50for the Reds pitching staff.
45:54>> All right, I'm going to go to a
45:55different game for the parlay entirely.
45:57I'm going to use the Blue Jays on the
45:59money line here. Um, listen, it's that
46:01simple. Season on the line tonight. Sai
46:04Young on the mound. Dylan CE or at least
46:06your Sai Young contender. Um he's gonna
46:08get the ball against a Rangers team that
46:10that went through a good amount of
46:12bullpen yesterday. Lost the uh you know
46:15bullpen couldn't get it done. Uh they
46:17had a lead in that game and they end up
46:19losing. Uh the loser of the Oh, now the
46:22Rangers are still very much in the mix
46:24in their terrible division. Um, but this
46:26is just this is just kind of a little
46:29bit of a do or die spot for the uh for
46:31both teams, but I think the Blue Jays
46:33more so. And um listen, you got Dylan CE
46:36in this price range. Uh the Blue Jays
46:39had yesterday off, so you know, you're
46:41getting Vland. You know, you're getting
46:42the uh the better bullpen guys at the
46:44back end of the game. That's my play. I
46:47just I I I think that was a big win for
46:49them to get in the finale to the series
46:51against the Tigers. It sets them up to
46:53have CE and all the top bullpen arms
46:56here. And this is another spot where you
46:58give Dylan Case the ball in a spot like
47:00this. I just think you're getting a
47:02little bit more than uh Kumar Rocker
47:04who's on I believe is who's on the other
47:06side for the Rangers. Um so yeah, I mean
47:08I guess short and sweet right there. I
47:09like the Jays. I I've liked them all
47:12year to this point and their season's on
47:14the line with one of the best pitchers
47:15in baseball at what I consider to be
47:18kind of a discount for one of the best
47:20pitchers in baseball. So give me Dylan
47:21CE. Give me the Blue Jays. Brian,
47:23anything for you? Blue Jays Rangers.
47:26>> Yeah. Um
47:30we're looking at um Rocker's got a 47
47:34game score on the season. Um he's only
47:37had two starts out of his last about six
47:40that he was league average or better.
47:42That said, I I kind of like the under
47:45here. I think this will be treated as if
47:47it's a playoff game because it bas
47:49basically is. Uh both teams need this
47:52game badly. Um to be honest with you, I
47:56don't I don't follow the the uh Sai
47:58Young awards or anything, but if Toronto
48:01doesn't make the playoffs, I think uh
48:05Cece doesn't win the uh award. I think
48:07they give it to Schlitler because his
48:08team's in it. That's just the way
48:09baseball is. Uh you could be the
48:11greatest pitcher in the world, your team
48:13doesn't make the playoffs. It's harder
48:14to give you the Sal Young. That said, um
48:18I kind of like the under here. Under the
48:20seven and a half, you can get them at
48:21minus 110, minus 113. But I I think this
48:24is going to be played out as
48:27whoever is available in this game. This
48:30is the important game for both these
48:31teams because the Toronto um starting
48:35rotation takes a big dip after Cease.
48:38So, if if Texas can get this win in this
48:40one, uh their future brightens up,
48:42whereas Toronto needs the win and their
48:46backs against the wall. They've got to
48:47win this game with their ace on the
48:49mound. Should be a lot of fun to watch.
48:51I think uh runs will be scarce.
48:54>> Tokyo Brandon, Blue Jays, Rangers to
48:57you. Um the and the other thing too, the
48:59another reason I like the Jays here,
49:01they've been um they've been much better
49:04this season uh against right-handed
49:07pitching like by by a wide margin. Uh
49:09this lineup just hits righties better.
49:12Uh you know, that hasn't always been the
49:14case with this like with this well the
Parlay of the Day
49:16Blue Jays the last couple years, but for
49:18whatever reason, this Blue Jays team,
49:20this the lineup one to nine that you're
49:22going to see out there tonight has been
49:24better against right-handed pitching.
49:26And in my opinion, they're getting a
49:27hitable right-handed pitcher followed by
49:29a tired Rangers bullpen here. So, Blue
49:31Jays Rangers to you. How are you seeing
49:33this one?
49:34>> Pretty much exactly like Brian's seeing
49:37it, so I'm not going to spend too much
49:39time on it, but uh uh or was it Adam? Uh
49:44just Blue Jays are better at almost
49:46everything and Dylan CE is just having
49:47an amazing season. Uh I've got the Blue
49:50Jays 11 spots or better. Uh 11 spots or
49:56more better than the Rangers at almost
49:58every category I'm I'm doing here. Uh
50:01Kumar Rocker walks too many people. Uh
50:04Dylan Cece is just having a great
50:06season. I worry though because you know
50:09Blue Jays aren't I mean they're pretty
50:12much out of it. Yeah. I mean
50:14>> n wouldn't you say
50:15>> why would they be out of it? They're two
50:17games out of the wild card right now.
50:19Like what?
50:20>> Well,
50:22>> they're playing like they're out of it.
50:23Um, I don't know. I would say Blue Jays
50:26are nothing here because they're just
50:28the much better team and uh got the much
50:30better starter here.
50:34>> Yeah, I got I mean I have to strongly
50:36disagree with the Blue Jays being out of
50:38it. They are as in it as any team is in
50:41terms of playing for a playoff spot the
50:43last two weeks of the season. And they
50:44get the headto-head here with the
50:46Rangers. That's the other thing that
50:47this would be, you know, obviously the
50:49Guardians are or whoever's in the
50:51Central I believe has the lead in the
50:53wild card right now, but it's like
50:56they're right they're right there. So,
50:59yeah. No, the they're both of these
51:00teams are very much in the mix. I think
51:02you get a like Brian said, a both teams
51:06are going to manage this game like it's
51:07a playoff game. And if it was a playoff
51:09game, I'd much prefer CE. That's why I'm
51:12going with the Blue Jays right here. Let
51:15me make a point. If Vlatty can start
51:17hitting home runs, that's going to be a
51:19dangerous team because he still only has
51:20what, 10. So, if he starts getting in a
51:24groove, this team's going to be
51:25dangerous for sure. Yeah.
51:28>> Listen, he's hit the ball hard. Like,
51:30he's had some really good exit VO
51:32lately. Um, I wouldn't be that shocked
51:35if it translated into a little bit of a
51:37run for him because he he's had some
51:39great exit VO numbers that some of which
51:42have gone right at guys, but that that's
51:44a typically a good sign. If you start
51:46seeing those 100 mph off the bat lasers
51:49places, that's usually a sign that a
51:52guy's about to get hot. So, that's a
51:54that's a good point, TB. That's a game.
51:56That would be a game chang if if if last
51:59year's Vlad showed up the last two weeks
52:01this season. It' be a game changer for
52:02the Jays for sure.
52:04>> Are they gonna get you Savage back by
52:06any chance?
52:07>> Yes. He just pitched in Buffalo three
52:10days ago. So, that's another thing. They
52:12they will
52:12>> Oh, yeah. Maybe they are locked and
52:14loaded. Yeah.
52:15>> Yeah. Well, they're going to bring him
52:17back. Hopefully use him in short relief
52:18in the playoffs.
52:20If you I I I I know that you you tend to
52:24think that Toronto's the better team,
52:26but both teams enter the game at 76 and
52:2877. Toronto's down 37 score in scoring
52:33this year. Rangers are down 39. Uh they
52:36both have the ex same expected one loss
52:39record. Uh they both are very similar
52:41against winning teams. The Blue Jays are
52:43nine games under 500. Texas is six games
52:45under 500. Uh, I will not say that
52:48Toronto's clearly the better team. They
52:50have the better talent, I believe. But,
52:53um, neither neither one of these teams,
52:56to be totally honest with you, I don't
52:57think either one of these teams deserves
52:59to be in the playoffs.
53:00>> The one thing I'll say about the Jays
53:02that you really can't dispute is they've
53:04played a far tougher schedule than they
53:06>> have. Not division.
53:08>> Yeah.
53:08>> Far tougher schedule. If the Jays were
53:10in the West, I'm confident they'd be 10
53:12games over 500 right now.
53:14But again,
53:16>> you never that's just you can sit here
53:18and argue that all day. That's that's
53:19hypothetical.
53:20>> Um I I'll throw a promotion out there
53:22real quick. I got a 5% NFL play that
53:24goes on Sunday. I'm 8 and2 to start the
53:27football season. I think I finished
53:29third on the site overall in football
53:31last year. Um so yeah, if you're
53:33interested in NFL winners, go check that
53:36out. I think it is a good one. Uh,
53:38Brian, promote anything you got to
53:40promote and also give me the money lines
53:42for Cubs and Jays so I can get this
53:44parlay correct.
53:45>> Yeah, let me get that first. Let's go
53:46with the Cubs are about uh
53:50128
53:52and the Jay's are coming in about
53:56uh 137.
54:00Um I have uh football player I swept the
54:03football board last Saturday 5-0.
54:06um been really strong in in college
54:09football dating back to last year. Been
54:11a nice really nice run for me. I do have
54:13a play
54:13>> 5 and0 is not easy to do.
54:16>> Yeah, it's uh a lot of people struggled
54:18last Saturday. So, I I guess I did
54:20pretty well, but um I do have a play up
54:23going tonight and I've got at least
54:25three games I'm going to write up for
54:27tomorrow and I've got some NFL to do as
54:30well. Uh they've got that weekend
54:32warrior package for anybody who wants to
54:34get our football for the weekend. That's
54:36a nice way to take a look at it.
54:38>> Yep.
54:38>> And if you're looking for long-term
54:40winners, uh going past the last more
54:43than the last 13 months, I'm number one
54:45in all sports net profit at wager talk.
54:49Um so yeah, been there, done that, and
54:52uh looking to continue the success we've
54:54done for the last year.
54:56>> Yeah. And of course the double play
54:58package uh for baseball specifically.
55:00two of the three guys you see on the
55:02screen. Tokyo Brandon's got plays up.
55:03I'll be putting something up pretty
55:05shortly after the show and I'm sure
55:07Brian will be as well. The three teamer
55:09for today is as follows. Tokyo Brandon
55:11going Diamondbacks plus one and a half
55:13minus 155. These are going to be all
55:15full game bets today. Uh Brian's got the
55:18Cubs on the money line and I've got the
55:19Blue Jays on the money line. So, Cubs
55:21money line, Blue Jays money line, Cubs -
55:24128, Blue Jays - 137, and then Dbacks
55:27plus one and a half, minus 155. That is
55:30your three-teamer for the day. Remember
55:329:00 am, we're back to 9:00 am on the
55:35weekend on the Saturday show. So, we
55:37will see you same time tomorrow for more
55:39total basis. Have a great day, everyone.
55:40Cash all your tickets. will see you in
55:42the more.