Full transcript
0:00All
0:03right, welcome in. It is Thursday. It is
0:06time for Total Bases. We've got day
0:08baseball. But first, we got to talk
0:11about yesterday. Brian, I you had a
0:13really bad beat on your 5% play. Like
0:16it's that was the right side. Anyone
0:19giving you a hard time for that, I I
0:23have a problem with those people because
0:25that was the 100% correct side. If you
0:28missed it, Brian had a team total under
0:30with the Twins uh in a game that was two
0:32nothing in the ninth inning with one
0:33strike, one strike away from winning.
0:36And um not only so if the ball leaves
0:39the ballpark, it's 3-2 and the Yankees
0:42are probably going to win 3-2.
0:44>> If they get Anthony Vulpi out, which is
0:46something that he's done most of his a
0:47lot of his career,
0:49>> then the game is over.
0:51>> And um instead, somehow it's a two-run
0:54double. the Yankees don't tack on and it
0:57goes over in extra innings. I was like
0:59that is one that is as infuriating as it
1:01gets. I didn't even have a scent on the
1:03game and I was mad for you. So, aside
1:06from that, I mean like that's just
1:08that's just miserable. I hate to bring
1:10it up and like have you relive it, but
1:12the people need to know that sometimes
1:14you're on the right side and you lose.
1:16That was one of the cases right there.
1:18>> Yeah, that's what they call a right
1:19side, wrong result. Um, and the sad part
1:22was I had the I had the Yankees as my
1:25part of the parlay. And I thought, well,
1:28good. This it'll work out great. The
1:29Yankees I go from one and one probably
1:33to two and 0. Ended up going 0 and2
1:35because I said, well, the Yankees will
1:37win an extra no and they lose an extra
1:39innings. So, I lost the free play and
1:41lost the 5%. It I I never feel bad if I
1:45had the right side in a game. Uh I do
1:47feel lucky when I've had the wrong side
1:49of the game and won it because Yeah. You
1:52won it, but in in the hundred times
1:54that's going to happen, you're going to
1:56be on the down side of that, you know.
1:59>> Yeah. Well, listen, we come in, we
2:01recap, win or loss. Tokyo Brandon for me
2:03yesterday, one and one. I had the pretty
2:06much the opposite of the day before
2:07where it was the good type of split
2:09where I hit the bigger of the two. Um,
2:11so one and one, hit the Blue Jays, lost
2:13a 3% uh, minor league play the last two
2:16days. Pretty much a wash for me. Uh, I
2:18saw you hit a 5enter across the pond.
2:21Well, it's across the pond for us. It's
2:22over where it's on your side of the
2:24pond. You can say this morning.
2:27>> So, uh, again, how how 5% win is always
2:30great. How was the rest of your day?
2:32>> 5% wins are always great. I went three
2:34and one in my Asian plays, including 5%
2:37play on the Soft Bank Hawks in Japanese
2:39baseball. Uh, but I went 1 and2 in MLB.
2:43I was on the Yankees. Very frustrating.
2:45I didn't know Zebie Matthews could
2:47transform into Nolan Ryan at the drop of
2:49a hat. What did he do? Seven innings,
2:52seven strikeouts, three hits. I mean,
2:54come on, dude. That guy's got a five RA
2:56and he's striking out seven Yanke held
2:58him to three hit, three or four hits.
3:00That was ridiculous. That's why they
3:02lost the game, not because of the extra
3:03innings. The Yankees should have had six
3:05runs going into the ninth. But anyways,
3:07I digress. Uh it was a frustrating
3:09frustrating game for me as well that
3:12one, but Asian made up for it. So uh
3:14yeah, uh I won uh three in one. So yeah,
3:18feeling good. I'm not in a slump
3:20anymore. So I'm feeling good.
3:23>> I told you, Tokyo Brandon, you need one.
3:25You You need one to go your way that
3:27you're not supposed to get it. It always
3:30it always ends the slump. Yesterday you
3:32got that walk-off with the Guardians. I
3:34fully expect you to tear it up going
3:36forward. Vinnie G. I was supposed to
3:38Brian. Uh Vinnie G is in Vegas. He wants
3:41you to know that he is in Vegas. He will
3:43be around all weekend. Uh I wish I was
3:45available. I'm available today, Vinnie.
3:48Uh my my uh Twitter line will come up
3:52down below. Just follow me on Twitter.
3:54Text me what what the deal is and I'll
3:56follow you back and we'll get together.
3:58This sounds great.
3:59>> Brian's free, guys.
4:00>> I'm jealous. I'm jealous. I w I love
4:04>> So am I.
4:05that that's my favorite part about being
4:07on the road a lot during college
4:08basketball season. I I've gotten to meet
4:10so many of you and I will be doing that
4:12again. So, I'm going to hit 25 to 30
4:15different venues again this season. Um,
4:17just let me know where you are. I'll
4:18come find you. So, that's
4:19>> Let me add to that.
4:21>> Oh, sorry, Adam. I
4:24>> We got time. Go ahead. Go ahead. uh
4:26November between November 20 and 20 uh
4:2930th, I will be in Phoenix or Anthem
4:33actually in Arizona, but I will be going
4:35to the Desert Diamond almost every day.
4:37So, if you're in the Arizona area, you
4:39can hit me up and we can check some
4:40stuff out as well.
4:42>> I'll also be in Arizona earlier in the
4:44month as I'm going to a fantasy baseball
4:46conference.
4:47>> Yeah, we're missing each other by like a
4:49week.
4:49>> Yeah, I get to see some uh Arizona Fall
4:51League baseball. I'm sure that's
4:53something up.
4:54>> I might head up to Vegas and and and
4:56check you out. You and Marco, you guys
4:58are always good to me.
4:59>> There you go.
5:01>> Not a bad drive. Vegas. Vegas to
5:03Phoenix. Not a bad drive. Terrifying
5:05drive. I've said this on the show a few
5:06times. That is a scary ass drive right
5:09there.
5:09>> Very thin. It's a very narrow road with
5:12no barrier in between and people are
5:14going about 80 miles an hour each way.
5:16So, yeah, that is that is a scary drive.
5:19We've got the chat is populating. Uh
5:22we're it's time to get into it for the
5:23day. We've got like three or four
5:25different people in the chat going to
5:27different games today. So I see you
5:29guys. I'm gonna try to get to all of
5:30your boots on the ground games. Uh but
5:32we're going to start with Fox uh
5:35national TV tonight.
5:37>> It's a I guess it's a kind of a bigger
5:39game for one team than the other. Uh the
5:42Phillies head to City Field. They'll
5:45take on the Mets. Brian, the Mets have
5:47been playing meaningless ball for a
5:49while and now it finally looks like
5:50they're sick of playing baseball. Uh, I
5:53thought they gave a great effort for a
5:56lot of the month of August into the
5:57month of September, but the Mets we've
5:59seen now for the last week or so look
6:02like they are ready for the season to be
6:05over. Uh, the Phillies still have I I
6:08think they still have a little bit of
6:09work to do. Uh, there there's still some
6:11implications for them. They're obviously
6:13going to the playoffs at this point, but
6:15they can play for seating. It's Aaron
6:17Nola. It's Nolan Mlan. Do you have a
6:19weigh in Philly's Mets? Yeah, we're
6:22looking at a couple of right-handers
6:23here. Nola Mlan and uh it's about 127
6:29favorite for Mlan with a total of eight.
6:32Um we're looking at Philadelphia and uh
6:34as you mentioned, they're pretty much
6:36locked into the playoffs. um if you
6:40would have to talk to the players
6:41individually about how much it it
6:43matters, but from uh over the years, as
6:46long as you're in the playoffs, that's
6:48the goal. Uh positioning for some guys
6:51helps, but you know, the if you win the
6:53division, I believe it you get that that
6:55buy. Well, Philly is not going to win
6:57the division. So, I think they're in
6:58like a no man's land. So, yeah, they're
7:00going to go out and try to win, but I
7:02don't think it's it's, you know, it is
7:05like it is in, you know, the White Sox
7:06Cleveland game yesterday. As a matter of
7:08fact, you watch that game, it definitely
7:09looked like a playoff game. Everybody
7:11going crazy about every hit they had.
7:13So, uh, you won't see that tonight for
7:15the Mets in Philadelphia. Uh, the Mets
7:18got Arinola on the mound. He's actually
7:21gotten better as the season goes on.
7:23He's now the number 70th ranked pitcher
7:25in Major League Baseball. They did use
7:27Duran and Alvarado out of the bullpen
7:29yesterday, but they hadn't been used the
7:31previous two days, and their entire
7:33bullpen actually is in really good shape
7:35here. Um, taking a look at the Mets.
7:41Uh, we're going to see um Mlan on the
7:44mount. As I mentioned, they didn't use
7:46any of the key guys yesterday. They had
7:48there's a like a bullpen game. He used
7:50Jeffrey Yan for 32 bringing him back up
7:52from the miners. and Weisenberger. I
7:55made made this comment. I was sitting
7:56there watching the game the other day
7:58with I said, "Isn't that like a
8:00something you said as a kid?" Ah, you're
8:02nothing but a Weisenberger. But, uh, he
8:04pitched 52 pitches yesterday. And she
8:07and she actually, my wife is, uh, much
8:09younger than I am, and she she knew it
8:11also. So, uh, it's just not me and the
8:14old people. Uh, but you take a look at
8:16the splits for um, Mlan. He's actually
8:19been better on the road when you take a
8:20look at his ZRA. Uh his average on the
8:23road is 197. It's a 230 at home. Uh so
8:26yeah, he's pitched better on the road
8:28than he has at home, but this is a good
8:29pitcher park and he's got a 56 game
8:32score on the season. He is coming off of
8:35his third worst start of the season. He
8:38had a 26 at Yankee Stadium the other
8:40day. He gave up five earned runs in five
8:42innings, but before that he gave up two
8:44to San Francisco and a bunch of zeros
8:46and ones. So, I obviously prefer him in
8:50this game over Nola and I think the line
8:54is a little bit cheap. I was expecting
8:55something in the 140 range uh because
8:59Philadelphia doesn't have that need
9:01situation at this point. So, and every
9:04game is important for the Mets. They
9:06they've had an embarrassing season. They
9:08have not played well lately. I think
9:10they uh go out and get the victory here.
9:12I'm going to use this as my play. We're
9:14on a short card today because of the the
9:16uh what's going on. So, I'm going to use
9:18them as my free play, my play here in
9:20the parlay. Uh unless uh TB made a
9:24comment, it made it sound like maybe it
9:26was going to be his. I hope I didn't
9:28steal somebody's play, but I'm going to
9:29use
9:29>> You got it first. That's fine. Go for
9:31it.
9:32>> Hold on me first.
9:33>> Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. You got shotgun
9:36>> TV. So So are you in agreement here with
9:39Brian?
9:40>> Absolutely. Yeah. My my numbers are
9:42screaming Mets, but you know what?
9:44They're they're playing very uninspired
9:46ball, but they're hitting better than
9:48the Phillies. Their bullpen's better
9:50than the Phillies in current form. I
9:52mean, Philly's bats are a little flaccid
9:54right now. Uh Nolan Mlan, he he's he's
9:58pitching great and he has a 146 average
10:01against these batters in his career. 48
10:03at bats against a 378 OPS. It would be
10:06Philadelphia's team total under with
10:09those flaccid bats or uh Mets on the
10:13money line, but the Mets bullpen's
10:14playing really well. So, uh I I don't
10:18you know, first impression was Oh,
10:20Philly is a much better team. I mean,
10:21their record's much better, but the the
10:24the lights are blinking. Mets, Mets,
10:26Mets. And I was actually going to make
10:27this my parlay leg as well, but Brian
10:29can take it. I have another one in mind
10:31that we'll do later in the show. Uh um
10:35you know I don't love I it is kind of a
10:38meaningless game like both ways. I think
10:40John's asking the question here. He says
10:42are the Phillies in Chicago safely in
10:44the division as you think they have four
10:46to six stretch of the last 10. They
10:48could be out. I I don't see how Philly
10:53>> I mean Phillies I guess I I guess the
10:56Phillies definitely still have something
10:57to play for. Uh they're only they're
11:00only four and a half ahead of the
11:02Diamondbacks. So, I guess they do have
11:05some work still to do,
11:08but like I I don't I just don't know
11:11that it's gonna that urgency probably
11:14doesn't come in unless they were to lose
11:16a couple and Arizona were to win a
11:18couple. I think they'll show up ready to
11:20play. But, you know, the Mets at home, I
11:24the only thing like I the only thing I
11:25can add here and again I I kind of agree
11:28with the guys, but like I like just
11:30prefer Nolan Mlan to Nola and and I
11:32think Mlan gives you the better chance
11:35to win. Now, I didn't love the price,
11:37but this is starting to come down. I see
11:40like minus 127 and and I do think there
11:43will be some sharp sort of syndicate
11:45type action on the Phillies at as an
11:48underdog. like they like to bet prices
11:50like that. If this were to get knocked
11:52down to like Mets, let's say minus 115,
11:54- 120,
11:56>> I might be willing to jump in with a
11:57with a Mets bet right there. Brian, what
11:59what is he uh what are you looking at
12:00for the parlay right now for a money
12:01loss?
12:01>> Yeah, 127. And I will say if you take a
12:04look at the expected one loss,
12:06Philadelphia should have 78 wins. The
12:08Mets should have 72. Take a look at the
12:10run differential, it's not that
12:13different. It's 65 runs. Uh the Phillies
12:16are only up 28 runs on the season. Uh
12:18they're up 15 games in the standings uh
12:2183 and 68, but with 28 runs
12:24differential, that should not be nearly
12:26that. That's why they're it's 78 instead
12:29of 83 on the on the expected.
12:33>> Yeah, they're probably the most they're
12:34probably the most underwhelming 84 win
12:37team in MLB. Can I make a just a
12:3910-second point on urgency? When these
12:41guys are up there swinging at a
12:43baseball, they're not really thinking,
12:45we got to win this game. and they're
12:46thinking, "How do I hit this ball?" Uh,
12:49what you know, motivation is is not
12:53quite as
12:55relevant in baseball as it is in other
12:57sports in my opinion because they're
12:59trying to hit. Nobody wants to embarrass
13:01themselves out on the field and
13:03everyone's trying to hit that ball. So,
13:06>> it's a great point,
13:07>> TV, it's a great point. I think it I
13:10think urgency
13:12>> it it shows up in how the game is
13:14managed, not necessarily how Yeah. Like
13:18you're going to see different decisions
13:21>> managerially when teams are like in a
13:23desperate spot. I I think that's where
13:25it shows up. I think it's a good point.
13:26>> Absolutely.
13:28>> You you couldn't have said it better.
13:30Yeah.
13:31>> All right, let's go to Oh, I'm going to
13:34go to my guy. We're going to get We're
13:35going to get all the boots on the
13:36ground. Uh we the fact that we've got
13:38all these viewers going to different
13:39games today is awesome. That's awesome.
13:40>> Uh Michael Glowaki is in Cincinnati this
13:44afternoon. This is one of the day games.
13:46Uh so let's get this one for him. He
13:47says today I'll have boots on the ground
13:49for Reds Dodgers. Any thoughts on the
13:51game and the totals would be
13:53appreciated. Well, I'll let Tokyo
13:55Brandon start. He wants to talk side. He
13:57wants to talk total. Uh so kick us off.
14:00Justin Robleski, Brady Singer, afternoon
14:02baseball at the Great American Ballpark.
14:04How do you see this one? Yeah, talk
14:06about uninspired baseball. The Dodgers
14:09are playing really uninspired baseball
14:11right now. I mean, I understand they
14:14went on a streak there where they were
14:15scoring like six runs a game, but man,
14:18they they can just turn it on and off
14:20like they they just I don't know. It's
14:23just they're not lazy or anything.
14:25They're just I don't know. Something's
14:27not there. Brady Singer has great stats
14:29against these batters, by the way. He's
14:31got a 128 average against and a 458 OPS.
14:35I I I'm not tempted to take the Reds by
14:38any means because they can't seem to
14:41really uh put wins together either, but
14:45I considering the Dodgers team total
14:48because I think they're going to be a
14:49little overrated. If you could get a
14:50four and a half under, I would be
14:52tempted to take that. And if you can get
14:54a two and a half in the first five, I
14:56would be tempted to take an under there
14:58because Singer has really pitched well
14:59against these guys. And uh you know the
15:03Dodgers are not really scaring anyone
15:04that with their bats in current form. I
15:06got them ranked exactly 15 out of 30 in
15:09current form. So not terrible, not
15:12great, but not scary by any means. So
15:14that's probably how I would go if I were
15:15to bet it.
15:18>> Brian, I'm tempted to take the Reds here
15:20that this is just,
15:22>> you know, they win last night.
15:24>> They're at home. Like if they're gonna
15:26play the Reds I I mean the Reds haven't
15:28been in the mix for a while. So, I I
15:30don't think you're like they're just
15:32they're they're going to finish the
15:34season. They're going to play hard at
15:35home in my opinion, but it would be more
15:37of a fade of the Dodgers. Uh a 1240
15:41local start
15:42>> for the Dodgers. They leave and finally,
15:45you know, get to go back home. They've
15:47been on the East Coast all week playing
15:49the Marlins and then playing the Reds.
15:51The finale of a four game set. They've
15:53already won two of the three. uh with a
15:56team that really has been sketchy in
15:58terms of giving an inspired effort over
16:00the last god all season basically
16:03because they know they're in the
16:04playoffs and it's like is this where
16:06you're going to get the effort from the
16:08Dodgers? They like
16:10>> in mentally they're probably already at
16:12the airport. They're ready to go home
16:14like that. This game means nothing to
16:15them. Reds plus one and a half staring
16:18me right in the face here. Brian,
16:20>> talk me into it. Talk me out of it. I
16:22don't know. What do you think?
16:23>> Yeah. Uh, first of all, the total is 10,
16:25so there's no way you're going to get a
16:26four and a half with the Dodgers.
16:27Probably five. Probably five and a half.
16:30I haven't looked, but I can look if you
16:31like.
16:32>> Uh, Robleski's going. He's the lefty and
16:35he has not been fully stretched out. So,
16:38uh, the Dodgers will be bringing up
16:40yesterday, um,
16:43Miller threw 47 pitches. They're going
16:45to bring up, so they sent him back down.
16:47Uh, Landon Knack's coming up for the
16:49Dodgers. I actually do like Landon Knack
16:50a little bit. Um, but you're looking at
16:53uh Robleski against Singer and say what
16:55you want about the Reds and I and I've
16:57said it myself, they are playing as if
16:59they can't wait for the season to end. I
17:01did watch that game yesterday and they
17:02did play with a little bit of heart. It
17:04also helps when your best player is your
17:06hottest player and he brings the whole
17:08team up. But, uh, Singer's been an
17:11excellent home underdog all season long.
17:13If you take a look at those numbers and
17:15you can get a plus, you know, plus 140,
17:18142, uh, back with Cincinnati. Yeah, if
17:22I'm playing, I I think this is a good
17:23spot for Cincinnati. And you mentioned
17:25the scheduling situation. If you
17:27remember, the Dodgers got on that big
17:28winning streak just a week or two ago
17:30and they they were unstoppable. Now,
17:33teams are starting to put start starting
17:35to get ready for the playoffs. I would
17:37expect them to do the same thing. We
17:38just heard today that the Braves are
17:40pushing back um their ace player, ace
17:44starter, Chris Sale. They're going to
17:46pitch him next Wednesday, which sets him
17:49up for the first start of the playoffs.
17:52So, he's the first of many. You're going
17:53to see a lot of these teams doing that,
17:55especially uh we talked about some of
17:57the some of the guys that had been
17:59pitching and they're younger, so they
18:01haven't reached those kind of numbers
18:02yet. Uh we'll see a lot of that going
18:04on. We talked about that just the other
18:06day. So, um, there's going to be some
18:09pitching changes, but, uh, yeah, if I if
18:11I'm playing this one, either play
18:13Cincinnati on the money line or I
18:15wouldn't have a problem with the one and
18:16a half. Although, anytime you get a
18:18total of 10, the numbers, you know, the
18:20runs don't mean as much.
18:22>> Is less valuable.
18:23>> Yeah. But, uh, you got to find a way to
18:25play Cincinnati here, I believe.
18:28>> Can I jump in real quick, Adam? Sorry.
18:29I'm going to make the Dodgers first five
18:31innings under two and a half. If it's
18:34two and a half, I'm going to make that
18:35my parlay leg. Just throwing that in
18:37there. I love how Singer pitches against
18:39these guys.
18:40>> Is it two and a half, by the way?
18:43>> Uh, let me know.
18:45>> Yeah, first five. I like I think Singer
18:47holds
18:49>> Yeah,
18:49>> first half team total.
18:51>> I'm I'm checking it myself, too.
18:53>> Yeah, it's two and a half. Um, under you
18:55can get plus
18:58115.
19:00>> Yeah, I like that. And the reds are two
19:03and a half also. That's weird. Okay.
19:05Yeah, like I I take them under, too.
19:09>> I actually think you're the the going
19:11under with the Dodgers on a team total
19:13makes more sense than going under with
19:15the Reds because of the price you're
19:16getting like the Reds. So, the point I
19:18was going to make to just be again the
19:20Reds plus one and a half is definitely
19:21something I'm I'm considering for
19:23clients. I haven't got there yet for for
19:26the reasons we've kind of hashed out
19:27trying to sort of gauge motivation. You
19:30still have to live with Brady Singer,
19:32which is tough sometimes, but like you
19:34said, he'd been better as an underdog. I
19:36I think I'm banking kind of like you're
19:38banking Tokyo Brandon on the Dodgers,
19:40just kind of rolling out of bed, playing
19:43this game, not really caring what the
19:45outcome is, and heading home.
19:47>> That's kind of what I think you have to
19:49bank on here if you like the Reds or you
19:51think it's going to it's going to go
19:52under. But the Reds have crushed
19:55left-handed pitching. like they've been
19:57so bad against right-handed pitching
19:59that they don't get the credit they
20:01deserve for being in my opinion for
20:03being a a top 10 WRC plus team against
20:06left-handed pitching all season. So, I
20:08actually think the Reds could do some
20:09damage off Robleski and um but I I I
20:13would say the way you're looking at it,
20:14maybe Dodgers come out sleepy sitting
20:17there with one run after five innings. I
20:19could totally see that. So, I am in
20:21agreement. I I I don't have any issues
20:23with your team total. Uh, that was a
20:25first five team total under two and a
20:27half you're going with.
20:28>> Yes.
20:29>> Yeah. Plus money there.
20:31>> Plus money. My goodness. That might move
20:33that might move to three and a half
20:34actually. I'd love it.
20:37>> Yeah, that's that's a good look. And I
20:39think Reds in any any way you could find
20:41to play the Reds. Take the price of the
20:43money line, take the run and a half. I
20:44think they all have some uh some merit
20:46here.
20:46>> We got two parlay legs done already. And
20:48you can get a triple play, two of us,
20:50three at wageralk.com. Three days
20:53baseball all access. And these guys can
20:55also talk about what other specials they
20:57have. Adam's football is red hot.
20:59Brian's baseball's red hot. And I'm
21:01finally hot again. So, two of us three
21:04baseball all access for three days. Go
21:06to wageralk.com, check out our capper
21:08page, and scroll down and find uh double
21:11play.
21:13>> Yeah, I I'm going to quickly promote uh
21:15if 5% NFL play. I put it up this
21:18morning. It goes on Sunday. I was number
21:20three overall on the site last year in
21:22football combined, college and NFL. I am
21:25number two to start this year. Uh 8-2. I
21:28put out 10 plays. I'm 8-2 plus 20.77
21:31units. I went 2 and 0 in NFL week one.
21:34And uh I got a 5enter that's up for
21:36Sunday and it's up now. And uh I think
21:38if you bet football that you should get
21:40it that that's just my
21:42>> doing really good in football, you guys.
21:44Adam's killing in football already. So,
21:47>> it's a long season, but uh like I said,
21:48I feel it's a good off to a good start.
21:50Feel good about this one on Sunday. So,
21:52uh we will see how that goes. Uh let's
21:55go back to the chat here. Um Alex, I'll
21:58come to yours next. Eric Styles. Eric
22:01Styles is boots on the ground for the
22:02Angels tonight. Any thoughts on that
22:05game? So, yeah, we've got from the first
22:07game on the board in Dodgers Reds or one
22:10of the first games on the board uh to I
22:12believe what will be the night cap for
22:14everyone. uh one of the the latest start
22:16I think the only game at in the 10
22:18o'clock window tonight out west um
22:22Angels Walbert Arena they're going to
22:24take on the Twins of course the Twins
22:27Brian
22:29a win yesterday that you know it looked
22:31like they had it easily then it looked
22:34like they were going to lose and then
22:35they win the game now they get to head
22:37out to Anaheim to take on the Angels Taj
22:41Bradley Walbert Arena uh Eric Styles
22:44boots on the ground. How do you see this
22:45one?
22:47>> Yeah, the uh got the rare win over the
22:49Yankees. Before I get into this one,
22:50since you were talking about promotion,
22:52I I'll promote myself a little bit here.
22:54Uh I went 5-0 in college football last
22:57Saturday. I'm on a 64 and 39 run dating
23:00back to last year in college football.
23:02They've got that weekend special. They
23:04call it the weekend warrior where you
23:05get all the football plays for the
23:06weekend. That's something I would
23:08recommend. Um off to a six and three
23:10start in the NFL also. So, good football
23:13season so far. Uh, can't complain. But
23:15let's get back to this baseball game.
23:18Taj Bradley against Urina. Uh, we're
23:21looking at Bradley. Basically, it's
23:23similar to a pickup situation. I guess
23:25Minnesota's slightly paid. Maybe it's
23:27minus 108 compared to minus 102 the
23:30other way. Uh, but Bradley and Arena,
23:32the total in this one is seven and a
23:34half to the under. They're not expecting
23:36many runs here um from the Twins. Yeah,
23:40coming off of the Yankee series and that
23:42was a very emotional game that uh
23:44playing playing the team that you really
23:46struggle with. You have them beat and
23:49then you end up giving up those runs and
23:52uh Gomez the closer was beside himself.
23:54He he was really upset when he lost that
23:56and so was I. Uh but anyway, um you got
24:01Taj Bradley on the mount, the 24th best
24:03pitcher in Major League Baseball. Who
24:04had that on their card before the season
24:07started? uh he's going here and the bull
24:09the only problem I have with it is the
24:11bullpen has been really used up against
24:13the Yankees. In fact, you go back to
24:15last Friday uh just about every the bull
24:18everybody in the bullpen has pitched
24:19three or four times already this week.
24:21So uh five times in in uh in seven or or
24:26uh five times in five days uh four day
24:30four times in five days. Yeah, you're
24:32not going to have guys around that are
24:34in very good shape. And that was the
24:35problem. I talked about this kind of
24:37yesterday is I like uh closers. I like
24:40pitchers who have been rested the day
24:41before. Uh they had to use Gomez the day
24:44before and then he ran out of gas there.
24:46So he had him done. But uh that happens.
24:48That's just part of it. That's like uh
24:50you know Hoffman was effective. He
24:52didn't pitch the day before. Mentor
24:54somewhat effective. If you actually
24:55watch the game and it's something that
24:57Adam has talked about, you realize he
24:59did not pitch very well, but he did, you
25:01know, he did get the hold. But yeah, uh
25:04I Tom Todd Bradley is a guy I like. Uh
25:07Urea is going for the Angels and a quick
25:11look at the Angels on Roster Resource
25:13here on Fan Graphs. Um they've had some
25:17really good pitching as of late and I
25:19talked about we um Johnson the last time
25:21he pitched was that yesterday the day
25:23before another another good uh another
25:25good start 44th over all the last two
25:28weeks. But um they've got some really
25:30good pitching right now. Reed Demer is
25:31excellent and Urina's been very good.
25:33He's number 34 on the season. Hasn't
25:36pitched as much as a lot of other guys,
25:37but he's been very good. Uh his splits
25:40here, his home, he's got a 2.42 RA at
25:43home, a 186 batting average against.
25:46He's been very good in this ballpark.
25:48Take a look at the game logs, a 57 game
25:51game log from him, and he is off a
25:53lesser start. Uh against Washington, he
25:56had a 48 game score. Two of them before
25:59that was 74 and 70. So I go back to the
26:02what happened yesterday in Minnesota and
26:04with the way these two pitchers are
26:06playing and the travel for Minnesota, I
26:09can't come up with anything but play the
26:10under here. The under seven and a half
26:12is certainly listed as
26:157 and a half minus 115 right now just
26:17about everywhere. That would be the way
26:19that I would go if I played this game.
26:22I was uh sorry I was I was digging for a
26:25stat that's very relevant here and I did
26:28find it just in time. Found it. I was
26:30going to give up um if if I got to Brian
26:33got to the end of his breakdown and I
26:35couldn't find it but I found it right at
26:36the gun. So Tokyo Brandon uh the Angels
26:40fired their pitching coach early this
26:42year. It was Mike Maddox. He got fired.
26:45um when he got fired, they were bottom
26:48five in basically every relevant metric
26:52pitching wise in Major League Baseball
26:55since they fired him. And it's this has
26:57been a a while now. I think this is like
27:00Brian, do you remember when that
27:02happened? Maybe a month or two ago.
27:04>> Yeah, about four 30 40 games, something
27:06like that.
27:07>> Okay. Since that. So So right that that
27:09that's what I was kind of getting at.
27:11There is a sample size. It's it's you
27:13know we've got a sample size to go off
27:14of. It wasn't like it was last week. Um
27:17since then the Angels and shout out to
27:20the folks at Just Baseball. I'm friends
27:22with those guys. They do a tremendous
27:23job. They just pump this uh great info,
27:26great content out every day. Uh but they
27:28tweeted this uh quality starts tied for
27:31first in Major League Baseball. Erra
27:34team erra for the Angels second in Major
27:37League Baseball 3.03.
27:40Team whip is fifth 120. Walk rate is
27:44top. It's seventh. So top 10 in the
27:47league. And Foir is second. Okay. Like
27:50and this is the be prior to that change
27:53they were 24th or worst in in all of
27:55those categories. So like now I mean
27:58you're talking 30 40 games. Like that's
28:01enough where it's like that that there's
28:04something to that. Obviously they make
28:06the change. Angel's pitching has been so
28:08much better and you're getting one of
28:10the ones that I actually think was fine
28:12before the change in arena. He was he
28:15was a guy that I had liked, you know,
28:17kind of from the beginning of the
28:18season. So, uh, Tokyo Brandon Angels
28:20twins to you. I just wanted to point
28:22that out. I thought that was very
28:24relevant and and something that needed
28:25to be brought up, um, you know, while we
28:27break down this game.
28:29Yeah, since some of the early shows
28:31months ago, uh we've been mentioning on
28:34the show that that the bullpen, the
28:35Angels bullpen is not their Achilles
28:38heel anymore as as it has been in
28:40previous seasons. Their bullpin was
28:42actually performing quite well and Brian
28:45stole quite a bit of my thunder. I was
28:46actually going to make a few of the same
28:48points. The fact that Minnesota's
28:50bullpin is stretched, uh they're coming
28:52off a really emotional win, uh and extra
28:56innings. They used tons of relief
28:58yesterday and uh they don't have a lot
29:01of arms uh that are fresh. Um I like the
29:05an first of all my my numbers are
29:08lighting up. Take the Angels, take the
29:10Angels. I'm not sure if I will, but
29:12Minnesota's not a team I can back.
29:14They're ranked 29th in hitting. So
29:16Brian's team total yesterday again was
29:18probably the right bet. Um this team's
29:21not hitting very well. Uh couple guys
29:24that I I I like on their roster, but uh
29:29couple guys actually stepped up
29:31yesterday. But overall, this team's not
29:34a very good hitting team. Not like the
29:35Angels or World Beaters, though. I got
29:37them ranked 21. They've got maybe three
29:39guys who can hit. Uh and then the rest
29:42of them, you know, might find something
29:45uh here and there, but I think the
29:47Minnesota pitching is is is in a little
29:50bit of trouble here. Um, Bradley doesn't
29:53have really good numbers against these
29:55batters. Also, uh, Arena's one of my
29:58favorite guys to watch. I mean, since
30:00the beginning of the season, he's been
30:02their bright spot. Yeah, I think
30:04Minnesota's team total under is a is a
30:07good bet again today. Uh, I don't think
30:09Arena is going to give
30:12bullpen has a serious advantage here.
30:15That's how I would go.
30:16Yeah, I listen I made the Angels a
30:20slight favorite here and it looks like
30:22the market has moved to the Angels at
30:24least being like minus 105. So that's
30:27that's the side I would go with. I don't
30:29know if that's going to be my parlay
30:30league. I want to see where the
30:31conversation goes over the next 25
30:33minutes or so. But um for for Eric, if
30:37you know your boots on the ground, I I'd
30:38be putting some coin on the home team. I
30:41think that's the best way you can go
30:42here. and
30:43>> makers are watching our show
30:45>> and you're there now. I think yeah, I
30:47mean this that move doesn't surprise me
30:49at all. Um again, I I noted Angels being
30:53an under underdog like probably 15
30:56minutes before we came on air and u that
30:58I made him a favorite and now they are I
31:00think minus 105. I think I still think
31:03there's value there. I think minus 105
31:04or better is fine if you like the
31:07Angels.
31:10They were plus 115 before the show.
31:12Yeah.
31:13>> Yeah. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. That
31:14was about a 20 cent move uh toward the
31:16Angels in the last hour. That's a That's
31:18a notable move.
31:19>> Honestly, they're the better team in my
31:21opinion. But
31:23>> that's a uh pro money. Angels taking 20
31:26cents a 20 cent move in an hour is
31:29probably some uh respected money moving.
31:32that if my gut would say
31:34>> you're moving the lines maybe.
31:35>> Or maybe
31:36>> as Mark Lambert is pointing out in the
31:38chat.
31:39>> Yeah, maybe it's some show steam. You
31:40never know.
31:42>> All right, Alex. He says, "Morning from
31:44the nation's capital. Can we talk Tigers
31:46and White Socks? Not sure Fetty. Not
31:49sure on Fetty without an opener." Um, so
31:52Brian, I'll come back to you. We got
31:53some AL Central. I know you're very
31:56happy with how the AL Central uh games
32:00played out yesterday. Of course, that
32:01was the Guardians surviving the Tommy
32:04Fam three-run bomb uh after he bullied
32:07his way into the lineup uh to take, you
32:09know, to take the lead in the AL
32:11Central. Uh Tigers,
32:14I don't think they were ever really in
32:16the mix after losing yesterday. They're
32:18probably completely out of it. But the
32:20White Socks, man, this is kind of all
32:22playing out like I I I thought it would
32:25for the White Socks where they're in big
32:27games now. These games mean something
32:29and suddenly they're having a hard time
32:32winning these games. They're back at
32:34home tonight. Tigers, the White Socks.
32:36Do you see the home team getting it done
32:38or is this going to be freef fall for
32:40the White Socks here?
32:42>> Yeah, you mentioned Tommy Fam. Uh he he
32:44reminds me a lot of Sher. He's got that
32:46in him. And uh he's he's had some
32:50interest an interesting past the last
32:51couple years. He got stabbed in San
32:52Diego after a game. What was that, two
32:54years ago? Something like that. Two or
32:55three years ago. He's ready to fight,
32:57man.
32:58>> He seems to always be ready to fight.
32:59And he comes to me and says, "I'm I'm in
33:01the game." Uh, I'm I'm a ri. Yeah, he's
33:04in the game. Okay, we're looking at um
33:08the uh the game. Detroit all of a
33:10sudden,
33:12right? Right when they you think they're
33:15done, they pull you right back in. And
33:16that's the Detroit Tigers. They've been
33:18on a nice winning streak. Valdez on the
33:20road, he's a lefty. And Fetty at home.
33:23We're looking at Fetty at about a 112
33:26favorite and a total of eight and a half
33:28here to the under. Uh yeah, the Tigers
33:31are playing really well. They've got uh
33:33one, two, three, three of their guys are
33:35hitting the top 50 over the last week.
33:38Uh playing very well. Bremer Valdez uh
33:4260th best pitcher in Major League
33:44Baseball on the season. Let's take a
33:45look at his splits. Um pretty much
33:48exactly even. Homer away does not make a
33:50difference. And from a game log, he's a
33:52league average pitcher. He's got a 50
33:54game score and he's gone three straight
33:57starts of over that. So, he's pitched
33:59pretty well as of late. Uh quick look at
34:02the uh Detroit bullpen. If I can get
34:04back to that on this page. Okay. Uh the
34:08Detroit bullpen is in it's decent shape.
34:10Kenley Jansen hasn't pitched the last
34:12two days. They did had to use Holton
34:14Kinley and Summers yesterday, but they
34:16hadn't pitched the day before. Summers
34:18is probably the one that I don't think
34:19is going to pitch. She's pitched 35
34:21pitches two out of the last three days.
34:22So, but Detroit's uh in pretty good
34:25shape in that regard. And from the
34:27Chicago standpoint, um yeah, they're
34:30obviously two days two days ago they
34:33look like they were in the playoffs. Now
34:35they're behind Cleveland by half a game.
34:38Um did not look particularly good
34:40yesterday. I was wrong from what I had
34:42read about the reliever Smith. I they
34:45said uh he there was something with him
34:47and they mentioned it at the game, but
34:48he still came back and pitched and and
34:50he was better than what the numbers
34:52would show. He was pretty dominant until
34:54uh you know, couple of walks, lost lost
34:56some uh lost some control, but uh yeah,
35:00I'm not giving up on Chicago here. I
35:02prefer that side in this game. Um,
35:06Fetty. Yeah, Fetty has not been great,
35:08but if you take a look at what he's done
35:10since they've used him out of the
35:11bullpen a lot of these times, he's he's
35:13been a pretty good pitcher. And uh I do
35:16like um the bullpen pitchers, the
35:19backend bullpen pitchers from the White
35:21Sox better. Don't know what'll come in
35:23the game, but uh usually teams um are
35:26very good in the situation. Detroit's
35:28been terrible against the division all
35:30year long. The White Sox have been great
35:31against the division and now they're
35:33back at home. Uh I think the White Sox
35:36find a way to pull this out.
35:38>> Yeah, I'll I'll throw this to Tokyo
35:40Brandon, but I will say that like you
35:42may see Fetty uh with an opener here. I
35:44think the White Socks will wait until
35:45the Tigers post their lineup to decide
35:48if they're going to use an opener or
35:49not. So, so just be aware of that. Fetty
35:51is listed as the starter right now, but
35:54like the White Sox are going to make
35:55their decision whether to go opener or
35:58just leave him out there probably based
36:00on whatever the Tigers do lineup wise.
36:02So if you're betting this early, you may
36:05want to bet action because uh that that
36:07could easily get flip-flopped. So uh
36:10assuming though, we know we know it's
36:12going to be Fetty in the quote unquote
36:14starters role. Tokyo Brandon, uh I am
36:16with Brian Eileen White Socks here. Um,
36:19I think the Tigers had a great little
36:21win streak going, ran out of gas
36:23yesterday, made a bunch of errors
36:25against the Blue Jays. Just really
36:26played a poor game. Um, kind of think
36:29that was it for the Tigers. I I think
36:31they they left it all all out on the
36:33field over the last week. It's going to
36:35be tough for them to bounce back in the
36:37Windy City. So, White Sox for me, White
36:39Sox for Brian. How do you see this one?
36:41Tigers or White Socks?
36:43>> So, it is not unanimous. I I I I prefer
36:47the Tigers here. And the reason is
36:49because uh they're hitting number four
36:52in MLB right now and their bullpen's
36:54ranked number three. I mean that if you
36:57hide the logo and the team name, you
36:59would think that's the Dodgers or the
37:01Braves or something. Um got nothing to
37:04play for, but they're starting to to win
37:06games here. I actually like Valdez
37:09better than Fetty as well. As a matter
37:11of fact, I've got the White Socks ranked
37:1328th in hitting right now, and I got
37:15their bullpen ranked 10. So, the bullpen
37:17is is doing well at the moment. Uh, the
37:21one thing that's going to keep me off
37:23playing this game, so like just at at a
37:25glance, I was like, "Oh, Tigers all the
37:27way." But the two things that are
37:29keeping me off it, uh, number one, the
37:32Tigers are terrible on the road. They're
37:3433 and 44 where the White Sox are great
37:36at home, 4331.
37:38That's one thing that's enough to keep
37:41me off playing it because again, we have
37:43so many games we can play. If you have
37:45two red flags on a game, skip it and go
37:47to the next. So, I won't play this. But
37:49the other thing that's keeping me off is
37:51the fact that the White Socks are
37:53basically still alive and are not going
37:55to be making business decisions. They're
37:57going to be making live or die decisions
37:59where the Tigers are in a position to
38:01make business decisions and and just sit
38:04people. If they're down by two runs in
38:06the sixth inning, they'll just sit
38:07people. So, uh yeah, I mean, my numbers
38:11say Tigers, but I'm not going to play it
38:13because of those two things.
38:16Um, so I thought yesterday, you know, we
38:18talked about the White Socks bullpen and
38:21uh we did see Hagen Smith out there
38:23yesterday. So now Brian, you very well
38:25may have been correct about him dealing
38:28with something because it's the first
38:29time all year that we saw him even be
38:31like remotely hitable. Um, but because
38:35he went out there and some of the other
38:36guys went out there, um, it it is like
38:39Grant Taylor now hasn't pitched since
38:41Tuesday. um one time in five days. Yeah.
38:45>> Yeah. And and here's the thing with
38:46Grant Taylor. The White Socks right now,
38:50they they ha they need a win. They they
38:53badly need a win. I'm not saying it's do
38:55or die, like their season's over if they
38:57lose, but like coming out of that series
38:59to lose the game the way they did on
39:02Tuesday and then to follow it up with a
39:04loss yesterday. This is a White Socks
39:06team that has now lost three of four.
39:09They've now lost seven of nine.
39:12I was going to say, Brian, they can feel
39:14it slipping, but it has already slipped.
39:16The slipping has already happened. They
39:18are now looking up at the Guardians by a
39:21half a game, which they can control
39:23today. If they win this game, they're
39:25back on level terms because the
39:27Guardians do not play. I think you're
39:29going to see an opener here if the White
39:33Socks like the matchups. I think you
39:35will see Fetty as long as he's going
39:38good. And do not do not be surprised if
39:40this is the game where Venable says,
39:42"Grant Taylor, go win me this game. I
39:44don't care if it's three innings. I
39:46don't care if it's three and a third."
39:47They've done it with him at times this
39:49year where they'll put him in and it's
39:51like, "We just need you to go win us
39:53this game. I it would it could
39:55potentially take him out for the weekend
39:57for the rest of this series." I don't
39:59think he Now, let me make something
40:00clear. I don't think he wants to do
40:02that. But I'm just saying if push came
40:04to shove and this game got to the
40:06seventh inning and the White Sox were up
40:07one one run, I think he will sell out to
40:11win this game, they cannot afford to, in
40:13my opinion, fall a game back just from a
40:16mental standpoint. You lost seven of
40:18nine. They This is a game the White
40:20Socks need. And like Tokyo Brandon said,
40:22when when it when there's desperation,
40:24when there's a team that needs to win,
40:26it's not so much the players. We know
40:28the players are going out there every
40:29day giving the effort. It's the fact
40:31that the manager is going to manage a
40:33certain way where he maybe wouldn't
40:35manage that way in June. If you know
40:37you're getting like three innings of
40:38Grant Taylor here, that makes the White
40:40Socks very valuable. I'm going to use
40:42the White Socks in the parlay. I I think
40:43they win. I think they get a win in this
40:45game. And I think you see Grant Taylor
40:48three innings if needed at the end of
40:50this game shutting things down. Uh so
40:52what what is my money line on the White
40:53Socks, Brian?
40:54>> You say minus 112.
40:58Yeah, I they're they're they're also a
41:01substantially better baseball team than
41:03the Tigers in my in my opinion. Like I
41:05know the Tigers have been a little hot
41:06lately. That that team was throwing the
41:09ball all over the Rogers Center
41:10yesterday. Like that's still they're
41:12still young guys there. I I'd be shocked
41:14if the if the Tigers finish the season
41:16strong. I think they showed you that was
41:18the best they can get for them. Six wins
41:20in a row. They lose yesterday, three
41:23errors in one inning. That's going to
41:24spill over into this game. White Sox
41:26minus 112 will be my leg of the parlay.
41:31All right, I got the parlay locked in,
41:33but we still got people
41:34>> with boots on the ground places. And we
41:36also got a donation from Freeird, which
41:38we've got to get in here. So, yeah,
41:40>> Freeird, first of all, thank you very
41:42much for the donation.
41:44He wants two games. You know what? For
41:46you, Freeird, I think we can do that.
41:48For anyone else, I might say we got to
41:50pick one of the two, but but for for
41:52Freeird, I'm going to get both of these
41:53in. He's been in here every single day
41:55all year. Uh we appreciate the donations
41:58and uh we're gonna get you both of these
42:00games. So, let's go. Uh two day games. I
42:04guess we'll go with the first one off
42:05the board, Brian. 12:35 p.m. Eastern. Uh
42:09this one's in Pittsburgh at beautiful
42:11PNC Park. One of the nicest parks there
42:13is. Uh Brewers Pirates.
42:16>> We've got Kyle Harrison. And it looks
42:19like the Pirates might use uh Wilbur
42:21Dotell as an opener. You might see
42:23Christian Curtis here. You might see a
42:25mix of guys for the Pirates, but a mix
42:27of good arms because the Pirates have no
42:30shortage of good pitchers. So, Brewers
42:33Pirates, anything for you here?
42:36>> Yeah. Uh, almost forgot to give you the
42:38line here. We're looking at Harrison the
42:40lefty against Doel the righty. And we're
42:43looking at about a 140 favorite for
42:45Milwaukee with a total of eight and a
42:47half to the over, nine to the under,
42:498.75.
42:51Um Harrison is going to get the start
42:55and if we remember he has not pitched
42:57well as of late. Um they pitched him out
43:01of the bullpen the other day and uh
43:03while his RA was 36 and his expected RA
43:06was 54 some of his other uh the FIP
43:09numbers are much better but still other
43:12than the two starts he had against the
43:14Mets with a 52 in Seattle with the 70.
43:17He had a three at San Diego, a minus 16
43:20against the Cubs, a 16 against
43:22Cincinnati, and now he's playing the
43:24same team he had a 16 against. Now,
43:26normally if a guy struggles that bad, I
43:28usually try to come back on him. I am
43:31not seeing numbers that I want to come
43:34back on him for. Um, he is, uh, they've
43:39found a, you know, piece of a piece of
43:42rock turned into gold and, uh, I'm a
43:44little bit worried about him right now.
43:46We'll see what we can get. If he does
43:48go, I wouldn't expect him to go very
43:49long. Um, like I said earlier, they're
43:52trying to baby these pitchers as they go
43:54into the playoffs. Uh, Pittsburgh,
43:57at one point, we were all pretty high on
43:59Pittsburgh, but they just have not
44:00played well. Now, they have a losing
44:03record after everything they've been
44:04through all season long, all the
44:05excitement. They're two games under 500.
44:08Um, I don't know if I can back
44:11Pittsburgh either, so I'll be sitting on
44:12the on the sideline in this one. TB
44:15Brewers Pirates. Do you have anything
44:17here?
44:18>> Not much. So, I'll make it very, very
44:21quick. Uh, this is game three and uh
44:24going for a sweep on the road. Uh, it's
44:28really tough, guys. Look what happened
44:29to Christopher Sanchez the other day.
44:31Look what happened to the Yankees
44:32yesterday. It's really hard to win three
44:34games in a row against the team. So, um,
44:38I don't know. I mean, I'm tempted to
44:41take Pittsburgh here, but man,
44:43Harrison's such a good pitcher. Brewers
44:45probably don't have a lot of urgency. I
44:47I I'll I'll be curious to see what their
44:49what their roster is, if they're
44:51actually putting out everyone as normal.
44:54Um, do you guys have any info on that,
44:56whether the Brewers are gung-ho right
44:58here for the win?
44:59>> They they did say I heard some quotes
45:00saying that they're going all out to try
45:02to win these next 10 games or whatever
45:03it is, but that could be.
45:06>> Yeah. Well,
45:06>> obviously they're not going to say we're
45:07trying to lose. So,
45:09>> yeah, but if they're if they if they're
45:11announcing that, they're they probably
45:13mean it. Um, yeah. I mean, the Brewers
45:16probably going for aund 100 win season
45:18here that it's within reach. And they're
45:20the number one hitting team in MLB right
45:22now, which is weird because they're not
45:24really exactly a home run hitting team
45:26because most of the teams when you look
45:27at the comparison, they they have less
45:29home runs than almost every team they're
45:30facing. So, great hitting team, very
45:33disciplined team, killing pitchers with
45:35with paper cuts, death by paper cut.
45:38They just hit, get on base, knock them
45:40in, and they're just doing everything
45:42right. Um, hard to go against the
45:45Brewers here. So, I will not
45:49>> um I think the over or the under the the
45:53total is is way too high in this game.
45:56Um, it's nine. I I'm I'm looking at Let
46:00me just make sure I've got my number
46:03correct. Yeah, I'm at like 8.4 here on a
46:06total right now. You can get nine flat
46:09some places like - 110 - 115. Um because
46:13So, here's the thing. Like, yeah, I
46:15don't I I lean I I lean toward the
46:17Pirates because
46:20I I just think like where where the game
46:21is priced, I I would like the Pirates as
46:23an underdog. But Brian, you do make a
46:25good point. the the Brewers, they they
46:28kind of need the one seed. The Brewers,
46:31listen, if you're serious, like the
46:33Brewers are are serious about being a
46:36contender, right? They want to go to the
46:38World Series. I
46:39>> If you're going to have any chance to
46:41beat the Dodgers in a seven game series
46:43if you're the Brewers, you need that
46:46home field advantage. You You need four
46:48home games against the Dodgers, three in
46:50my opinion. So, I I would think that
46:52I'll take that comment and think that
46:54they're serious. They want like the one
46:56seed to the Brewers is so much more
46:59important. It's so much more valuable
47:02than it is to to the Dodgers. I I fully
47:04expect the Brewers to go all out and try
47:06to get that one seed. But in this game
47:08here, like first of all, Kyle Harrison,
47:11fantastic. I I don't even need to go
47:13into detail on that. I I see like
47:15everyone in the chat see we're all on
47:18the same page. He's really good. Uh the
47:20Pirates have been worse against
47:21left-handed pitching this year than
47:22right-handed pitching. So, they're
47:23getting a tough lefty, but like you're
47:25going to get some good arms here for the
47:27Pirates. Like, you might see Christian
47:29Curtis. You might you're going to you're
47:31probably going to get Doel at the top of
47:32the game and you're getting nine, which
47:35is a very key number in totals betting
47:37when you can stay under, you know, you
47:39let's say it gets to 44 and now you're
47:41you're not dead like you're at least
47:43protected, you know, if if in a 54 game,
47:46that nine is very important as opposed
47:48to eight and a half when you're betting
47:49totals. Um, I I I could see it's a 1230
47:53start. I I could see a lowscoring game
47:56here. I don't think you're getting more
47:57than nine runs. I I actually really like
47:59this total under nine. Brian, go ahead.
48:01>> Yeah, I agree. Uh, looking at it,
48:03Montgomery and Weaver have not pitched e
48:06any of the last three days. They're
48:07going to try to get them in there. Um,
48:10regardless of what happens, uh, the only
48:12bullpen guy, uh, Lzinski went 38 pitches
48:15yesterday. He's the only guy other than,
48:18uh, Ramirez who probably won't pitch. So
48:20both teams have got really good bullpen
48:21situations.
48:23>> CJW, the Pirates have pitching for
48:25literal days. You don't have to worry
48:27about the Pirates having good arms.
48:29There is I mean they have they have
48:32plenty of pitching like quality pitching
48:34here. So Menzinski is not I mean he's
48:37just become like a bulk relief guy
48:39anyway. They they have all any anyone
48:41that the Pirates would want in the game
48:44will be in the game here. And um like I
48:46said, I'm I'm high on some of their
48:47younger arms. I'd love to see Christian
48:49Curtis in this game. Like he like they
48:51have some good young arms and I think
48:54they limit the damage for the Brewers.
48:56So if you think that and Kyle Harrison
48:58comes and shows up, you're probably
49:00getting an under nine.
49:02All right, Freeird, I'm going to get
49:03your other game, Tokyo Brandon. Back to
49:05you. A's Rays. We know Freeird keeps an
49:09eye on those Rays games. He's got that
49:11great Rays avatar. Um the throwback
49:14logo. I absolutely love that. Uh someone
49:16asked in the chat real quick. Um, yeah,
49:18it was yesterday was not a great day for
49:20our Yankees future. The Yankees lose,
49:22the Rays win. Uh, I still think they
49:25have a chance. I I still think that it's
49:27worth a flyer. I don't think the Rays
49:29are winning out by any means and the
49:31Yankees still have four games against
49:32them head-to-head. The question will be
49:34like, so this this game is kind of
49:37important to that. Um, I think if the
49:39Rays could complete the sweep here and
49:42stay incredibly hot, it would uh really
49:44help them in their pursuit of winning
49:46the AL West. Uh, but I don't think it's
49:49going to be that easy. Tokyo Brandon
49:51Rays A's. Do you think the underdog has
49:52a shot here or are you going with the
49:54home team?
49:56Yeah, this is a this Yeah, I had the
49:58Rays yesterday uh minus one, which was
50:01very frustrating because they jump out
50:03to a four nothing lead and then they do
50:05nothing the rest of the game and just
50:08give runs chip chip chip. Give just
50:10enough runs to make my bet a push. Uh
50:12this is another one where they won the
50:14first two games. This is game three. Um
50:17so that's a huge red flag if I'm going
50:19to bet the Rays. But Rasmusen is leagues
50:22better than Jeffrey Springs. No doubt
50:25about that. The the the Rays bullpen has
50:27been a little shaky recently. Um I'm not
50:31just talking about yesterday, but I got
50:33them ranked 20 in current form where I
50:34got the A's ranked 23. So pretty
50:38negligible there. Um
50:40both teams have some hitters. I mean,
50:43the A's are a bad team, but I think
50:44mostly they're a bad team uh because of
50:47their pitching. Um,
50:50yeah. I mean, I I mean, I want to take
50:53the raise, but it's minus 280 first of
50:55all, so you can't do a minus one. It'll
50:58still be like minus 210 with a minus
51:00one. So, minus one and a half would be
51:02the only way you can take the raise. Or
51:04if you think Rasp's going to have a
51:07great game today, you can take the A's
51:09team total under. Either way, I'm going
51:12to stay away from this one.
51:16Brian, I I think there's some value on
51:19the dog here. Um Jeffrey Springs
51:22used to love pitching in this ballpark.
51:24Uh this was with the best run of his
51:27career was with the Rays in this
51:29ballpark. He is an extreme flyball
51:32pitcher. I think Southern Sutter Health
51:34Park has really put a a damper. uh you
51:37know, remember I think when he was uh I
51:39I think when he was in contract talks
51:42with going to the A's, they were still
51:44playing in Oakland Coliseum. I I don't
51:46know that he fully signed up uh to pitch
51:49in Sutter Health Park as a guy that like
51:52is one of the more extreme flyball
51:54pitchers in the league. Now he's back at
51:56the ballpark that he absolutely loved
51:57pitching in during his time with the
51:59Rays. Do you think we get a rare good
52:01outing from Jeffrey Springs here? Well,
52:04they've been building the Cleveland
52:07the Vegas ballpark for for a while now.
52:09So, he should have known they were
52:11moving to Las Vegas. Uh I I Yeah, the
52:14thing moving to Sac moving over to
52:16Sacramento was the deal because they
52:19could have been playing in Oakland
52:20Stadium.
52:21>> Um yeah, we got Springs the lefty
52:23against Rasm. Uh Rasm about a one or
52:27excuse me 275 favorite with a total of
52:29seven and a half.
52:31It's rare that um
52:35you can you can lay that type of number
52:37with Tampa Bay when they only have a 91
52:41WRC plus on the season versus lefties.
52:43You don't see you don't see a 275
52:45favorite in that situation very often. I
52:47will say Jeffrey Springs is his his
52:50average game score is 41 which may be
52:54the worst pretty close to the worst.
52:56He's Lorenz and Michael Lorenz in
52:58territory, but he's gone uh nine of his
53:01last 10 starts were worse than league
53:03average. He did have a nice 79 pitching
53:05in Seattle, a really good pitcher park
53:07that doesn't give up a lot of home runs.
53:09That's the perfect park for him. That's
53:10why when you go to go to those kind of
53:12parks is smart for those guys that don't
53:14have the greatest stuff. He's got a 17
53:17uh.1% uh fly ball home run to fly ball
53:20ratio this year. uh his home ballpark in
53:23Sacramento is a killing field uh for the
53:27balls coming off of his uh his arm. Uh
53:30that said, he should pitch better today.
53:33Um TB talked about hard to sweep. I
53:37would prefer Tampa Bay, but not at this
53:39number. I can't get there.
53:42>> Yeah. And and I
53:43>> This is why I love the show, Brian.
53:44That's great information.
53:46The A's. The A's have been playing their
53:50tails off all month. Uh, this is a team,
53:52it's it's it's mostly young guys. It's
53:55it's it's guys that are still, you know,
53:57trying to to cut their teeth at the big
53:59league level. And they have played
54:02extremely hard this entire month.
54:04They've taken three of four in Seattle
54:06from the Mariners. They took two of
54:08three at home from the Blue Jays. They
54:12took two of three at home from the
54:14Mariners. Those are their last three
54:15series. Now, say what you want about the
54:17Blue Jays and Mariners, but those are
54:18not bad baseball teams. They're teams
54:20that probably should be a little bit
54:22better than they've been, but those are
54:24I mean, those are quality ball clubs,
54:27and the A's have won all three of those
54:29series. So far in this series, two
54:32one-run losses. I mean, the A's had
54:34their chances, especially on Tuesday
54:36night. That game goes into the ninth
54:37inning 1-1. I would not be at all
54:40surprised to see the A's steal the
54:41finale here. And you could take them
54:43plus one and a half with the road team
54:45getting the extra run in in a series
54:47that's been close the entire time. And
54:49this might be one of the better sort of
54:52situational matchups for the A's all
54:54series. I think the A's, you know, is
54:56the I I'm going to be looking at A's
54:58plus one and a half. I don't know if
54:59I'll get to the window with that, but
55:01that's the way I look. And I think
55:02you've got some serious underdog value
55:05with the A's here.
55:06>> Go plus two and a half.
55:09I I don't know what the I mean plus one
55:10and a half even money. Yeah,
55:12>> it's about minus 200 probably.
55:15>> That's the scenario where the run the
55:16extra run is not worth it. Um that
55:19doesn't make sense from a from a number
55:21standpoint. But plus one and a half with
55:23a road team where you where you know you
55:25get the extra at bat and you're you're
55:27even money or even plus 105. That makes
55:29some sense for sure.
55:32All right, we are at the end of the
55:35show. Tokyo Brandon, what can people
55:37find on the website right now?
55:39>> You guys can go to wageralk.com right
55:41now. Go to experts. You will see Adam,
55:44Brian, and myself. If you go to one of
55:46our capper pages, you can see all the
55:48specials listed. You can see all of our
55:50free plays listed. And you can see our
55:53streaks, our last 20 bets, and the
55:55analysis as well. But you'll also see a
55:57double play link right there. You can
55:59get two of us three for three days all
56:02baseball access. And uh let Brian and
56:06Adam tell you real quick what kind of
56:07specials they have for other sports
56:09besides baseball. I know Adam has a
56:11football special. Brian, you probably
56:12have a football special or something
56:14like that, right?
56:15>> I don't know if the football is no
56:17longer going on. They had that great
56:18special for the, you know, for the full
56:20year type of thing, but uh
56:22>> you have any plays for the weekend?
56:23>> I'm gonna I'm gonna have three plays up
56:24in baseball today. Don't know if I'll
56:26get there in football. And yeah, I start
56:29putting up my football plays for the
56:31weekend today.
56:31>> Double play, guys.
56:33Um, I do believe the coupon code blitz
56:36100 still works on the full season of
56:39NFL or college football. Um, so that is
56:42that is an option. It should take a h
56:43100red bucks off the full season uh for
56:45any handicapper. Um, I am I have 5%
56:49football play NFL that goes on Sunday.
56:51Uh, I'm up 93 units in 2026. I'm off to
56:54a great start in in the NF well both
56:57college and NFL, eight and two across
56:59both. And um I will have baseball out at
57:02some point today. We still have that
57:03great double play special. You get two
57:06of the handicappers you see on the
57:08screen here. Still a lot of baseball
57:09left even though football has started.
57:11We're here grinding it out on the bases
57:14every day. And uh we'll continue to do
57:16that right through the World Series. So
57:18uh the three of us today for the parlay.
57:20Brian's going Mets on the money line.
57:22I'm going to go White Socks on the money
57:24line. And Tokyo Brandon is going Dodgers
57:27first five team total under two and a
57:29half. That's plus 115. So we've got a
57:32first five team total under two and a
57:35half with the Dodgers. That's under two
57:37and a half plus 115 and then two full
57:40game money lines. White Socks money
57:41line, Mets money line. That is your
57:43three-teamer. We are going to hit one of
57:45these at some point. Get back in the mix
57:47on the parlays. Listen, don't don't bail
57:49on us on the parlays. There's still a
57:51month and a half left. We rattle off a
57:53couple of parlay winners. We're right
57:55back in the mix. We ended up making
57:57money on the parlay of the day last
57:59year, which is in in my opinion
58:02incredible. The fact that we went six
58:04months parlay every day three-teamer and
58:06we ended up like plus five units. I
58:08think we're going to get hot on these at
58:10some point. So again, today's Mets money
58:12line, White Socks money line, Dodgers
58:14first five team total under two and a
58:16half. Um that's a three-teamer and the
58:18three of us will see you at 9:00 am
58:20tomorrow morning for more total bases.
58:22Have a great day everybody.