Full transcript
0:02All right, welcome in. It is Tuesday. It is time for Total Bases. It also means it's $5 Tuesday. That's sitewide. So, head on over to Wager Talk. Check out all the handicappers pages, including ours. Uh you're going to find uh $5 plays on everyone's page. Uh and that's every Tuesday. So, uh $5 Tuesday. We're getting toward the end of the baseball
0:23season, which means these shows are going to be quick. There's only one game to talk about. As always, we recap the day before. Um, nothing for me yesterday. Ended up being a pass. Uh, so Brian Leonard, how was your Monday? >> Let's just say if I had to play a side in total in each of the games, I would
0:41have lost everything I had. Uh, I had the Dodgers under and then, uh, Yamamoto gets gets uh, hit pretty hard and then I had, uh, Tampa Bay. And congratulations to you. you tried to talk us out of it. Um I don't know what was the right side in the game, but I knew that we were in
1:01trouble when even when Cleveland wasn't scoring early, they were getting hits against Rasmusen and uh they mentioned it on the on the broadcast that he hadn't pitched in a while and they had sim they had simulated games or whatever, but he hadn't pitched in a while and it seemed to show he just
1:22didn't have the same the same thing we saw most of the season. Cle heads off to Cleveland. I still think that was a terrible spot, but they came out and played well and uh yeah, it uh it didn't work out for us. We went 0 and2 yesterday. U still on that great run, but hey, it's what have
1:42you done for me lately? We didn't do it yesterday. >> I mean, I'm not going to come on here and take credit for for the Guardians. I had a grand total of zero dollars on the game. So again, I I to I agreed with you with the spot. I it was more just a a price point where where the price point
1:59was for me um to to push me toward the Guardians. And yeah, it worked out for them, but I I think that's kind of the point I was trying to make with the series is and we'll get into it when we discuss game two. It's going to be a good series. I don't think this is just going to be a walk in the park for the
2:13Rays and certainly not going to be after losing game one at home. Tokyo Brandon, uh Monday night for you, Monday or Monday, whatever time for you. How did it go? >> Pretty much on the same stuff Brian was. Uh I had the first inning under in the Dodgers game and that blew up. Both teams scored and then I had the Rays as
2:35well and uh Ray's first five would have been a winner. Unfortunately, as I mentioned on the show yesterday, the Guardians have the better bullpen and uh they showed it. I mean, it looks like the Rays just took a lead and put it in cruise control and tried to protect it and it did not work for them. >> Oh, that is a great segue into what
2:56we're going to talk about today. Yeah, the Rays. Listen, if you're on the if you're a Rays backer, can't ask for a better start. They come out, they get out of the first inning. Uh the Guardians had two hits in the first inning, couldn't get a run out of it. And then the Rays come out and score two
3:10runs right off the bat. Um arguably could have had more. maybe maybe missed opportunities for more early. As you were saying, Brian, they kind of let the Guardians hang around and then the Guardians got the, you know, the couple big hits to put them back in the game. Um, so talk about game one and also if you learned anything last night that you
3:29can apply to game two here. >> Yeah. Uh, first of all, Cleveland hitting home runs. Uh, that was something we did not expect at all. Uh, Manny Ramirez, you call him Manny Ramirez. Jose. Jose uh you could just see it in his eyes that he's starting to feel it again. He's felt it for the last
3:50week or so. And uh just everything about him. Uh when anytime your best player is is your is hot, you can't count any team out. And we've seen that, you know, we saw it in in many many situations all season long. I was a little bit worried about uh the pitch count for Messi on the
4:11season. Um but he has put he's been a workhorse for them even in the minors. We got Messi the lefty against Peralta the righty. Peralta is about a 130 favorite right now with a total of seven to the under or six and a half to the over. Pretty much um equal there. So six and 6.75. Um but yeah, Parker Messik has been very
4:34good all season. better on the road than he has been at home. Uh if you take a look at his uh game logs on the regular season, he's a 60 starter, which is 10 better than league average. And uh he's very good. Problem is he is getting up there now. His last time out he did not have a lot of control and that's what
4:55hurts him. He needs to be able to have control and uh he's very good in that and didn't have it last time. So, uh, hopefully he gets it back tonight if you if you'd like the Guardians in that regard. Uh, from a hitting standpoint, uh, they surprised me a little bit. They hit better than I thought. Uh, once they
5:14got TB talked about it, once they got into the bullpen, it uh, was a different game. Um, so Cleveland still did use their big big three at the end with Smith Gatis and Sowski. Uh, Heron hasn't pitched in a while. He last time he pitched he uh, he he was not very effective. So, they're probably letting him find himself a little bit, but uh
5:34hey, Daniel Espino, uh I've been talking about that guy for years. He hasn't done much. Well, he kept them in that game yesterday. Comes in, strikes out the side. Um using uh Joey Kento a little bit yesterday. I was that keeps him out of long relief here, which means if they get in trouble, they may have to use
5:54Slave Chicone. We will see. But uh right now when I take a look at Tampa Bay uh what the what the one mistake I well there they made it's anytime you lose a game uh you come up with come with up with things here but they used um
6:16Tyler Wells yesterday he had just come back from uh injury and they hadn't used him in the playoffs and he comes back and he was the first reliever out of the bullpen and he was very ineffective. I think if uh Cash had to do that again, he'd have brought somebody else in. It's it's tough in a two nothing game to
6:36bring in a guy who as good as he's been this year uh when he hasn't pitched in a while like that. And that was the big differential in the game, at least to me. So, uh looking at today's game, I think the line is pretty much where I would make it. And uh I at this time early in the morning, it looks like I'm
6:55going to be passing on this game. We'll have to see. We'll see how this line moves, but um I would expect a lowcoring game, although I did yesterday and didn't get it. So, we will see. Uh Peralta is a guy who's been there, done that. And uh so two really good pitchers going today. And both teams uh even
7:13though they didn't score a lot of runs in yesterday's game, they both had plenty of opportunities. So to be totally honest with you, I don't know which way I'm going to handle this game at this time of the day. >> Yeah, I think that's fair. Um, you certainly have some you certainly have to start asking yourself some questions
7:31now in terms of, you know, now I mean if the Rays lose today, they are putting themselves in in quite the challenging spot for this series. Of course, it's a seven game series, so certainly not over by any means. Um, Tommy in the chat says, "I'm thinking Messi has a good outing tonight." Um, I think I I kind of
7:51think I agree with you. Uh, one of the things that I feel like I didn't I I got going on Foster Griffin yesterday. And the point I wanted to make, I never actually made the point I wanted to make about Foster Griffin. I talked about him pitching well because he was coming off the layoff and stuff like that. I felt
8:07like he was due for a good start. The thing that I kind of left out of yesterday's show, and I'm kicking myself for it, the Rays are not good against left-handed pitching. That that's like the main point I wanted to make that I didn't make yesterday. Rays against left-handed pitching this season. They're 26th in the league in WRC plus.
8:24They're 25th in OPS. They really haven't been great against lefties all year. And now you're up against a pretty good one in Parker Messi. So, Tokyo Brandon Rays, do they bounce back or do you think they're in a worse spot after that loss yesterday? Um, so first of all, it's $5 Tuesday at Wager Talk and all of Wager Talk's
8:44sister sites, including Picks and Parlays and Sports Memo. So, everything is either free or $5 except for the 5% big plays. So, uh, go there and check them out. And one thing of note, it's not just the Tuesday games that are $5. It could be a football game for the weekend, uh, but it's priced for $5 only
9:06on Tuesday. So, go to wageralk.com. Uh, even if my colleagues here don't have a baseball game, they'll probably have a football game. I have some baseball games up for $5 right now as well. Uh, number one, the last 30 days at wager talk.com, so pretty proud of that. On to this game. So, I thought watching the game yesterday that they
9:28pulled Foster Griffin out too early again. Uh, but I was wrong. So, that was turned out to be a good move. Um, and I thought they left Rasmusson in too long. So, uh, yeah, I mean, kind of weird how that turns out. I didn't think Rasmusen should have gone in in the seventh inning, but hey, what can you do? Um, I
9:50thought Foster Griffin could have gone longer, but he proved me wrong. They won the game. So, uh, regarding today, um, both pitchers have really good numbers against the team they're facing. Uh, I don't think anyone could argue that Messi's the better pitcher, but young pitchers, he's been struggling in the playoffs and, uh, young pitchers do
10:12that. Uh, you know, we saw yesterday Henderson committed, I think, two errors by himself. Uh, he just he was pitching okay, but the these young guys just feel the pressure a little more than the veterans do in my opinion. Um, Peralta is a veteran. Messi is a younger guy. Um
10:32I I think the Rays have a slight pitching advantage here. Um but I think the bullpen advantage goes to the Guardians and uh Guardians are on a roll with their hitting as well. So uh I don't rather than a side though, I think I think a under would be the way to go here. I don't know if if the first
10:53five under, the full game under, I'm not quite sure, or a team total under, but this seems like an under game to me. Um, both pitchers have great stats against the other team. I think Peralta is going to hold Cleveland down for at least the beginning of the game. So, yeah, I think I think I'll go with the under in this
11:11one if I'm going to bet it. Yeah, if you look at the regular season, um, six meetings, there was one sort of like outburst game that was like 11 to three. Every other game was like a 2-1 grinded out type game. Great pitching from both sides. I think the Rays actually won five of the six regular season meetings and in in four of them
11:33they won like a 2-1 game and then the other one the Guardians won like a one- nothing game or something like that. So, um, certainly feels like yesterday's sort of 10 run outburst, I mean, you know, might might be the anomaly of the series. Um, it definitely this matchup has just been close lower scoring games. So, Brian, you have any interest in the
11:55total from that in that regard? >> Yeah, if I'm playing anything the closest to playing, it would be the under. I I didn't speak about stolen bases, but if you watch Cleveland in the playoffs, I said all season long they don't do enough stealing and uh they're really active on the on the base pass. They've done it against Chicago, they
12:13did against Teel, and they're they did it yesterday. So, keep an eye out. Even though these teams are not big power teams, they are able to manufacture runs like the Milwaukee Brewers have. And uh it to me, I'm not a long ball kind of guy. I prefer the base to base how the management of close games and
12:33everything. Um, both of these teams have the ability to run and I think uh that's what we'll see more of that. So, uh, uh, keep an eye on that if there's any stolen base props out there. I'm I'm not a big prop guy, but keep in mind both these teams look like they're trying to run >> and bunt.
12:52>> Yes. >> See a lot of bunting and I like to see that in the playoffs. I know it's not sexy and I know everyone likes the long ball and stuff, but I love to see bunting, manufactured runs and and uh you know, mechanics. Uh you know, uh I love to see it like real oldfashioned baseball is what we're seeing in the
13:11playoffs, especially with these two. Love it. >> Um couple chat comments and so Jacob Heapner says, "I disagree, Trey. Both teams were hitting the ball hard. I could see a few more overs in this series." Yeah. I mean, I I guess I don't expect every game the rest of the way to go like 2-1, like something like that.
13:29But, um, it was really more just pointing out how this how the games played out when these two teams played during the regular season. And there was that sort of anomaly with 14 runs. Every other one had three. But I I don't I I'm not going to sit here and like tell you you're wrong. I mean, the Guardians are
13:46hitting the ball as well as they have all season arguably the last week or so. So, if you go back to games three, four, and five against the White Socks and then last night. So, yeah, I'm with you. I don't really want to bet against that. Um, Bennett says, you know, you're not taking into account that Parker Messi
14:02was um facing the White Socks, who they saw who who they saw him five times this season. Uh, think he was going to struggle regardless. Bennett, I I agree with that. I think the White Socks had his number a little bit. I think they matched up well with him. As I said, the Rays bottom five against left-handed
14:18pitching in WRC plus uh and and OPS this year. After the first inning, uh Foster Griffin kind of settled in. I I I agree with Tokyo Brandon. They could have easily put him out there in the fifth inning. I don't think anyone would have had a problem with that. He was starting to settle into the game. >> Dude, he was only on 60 pitches. I Yeah,
14:38I think Vote kind of just was like looking at Okay, I I I like the way Espino goes with with with this >> uh three hitters right here and he knew he had CIO in his back pocket for for later. So, yeah, V managed a good game yesterday. I thought he did a great game. Yeah, I >> I kind of gave him a bad time the night
14:56before, a few games before, but he he proved himself yesterday, which also proves why these guys are the managers of the team and we're just guys talking about baseball. Uh I will point Bennett Bennett's comment there um in regard to uh Messi. Messi on the road versus non-divisional foes has been great uh from a betting standpoint. Uh that's
15:18something to keep in mind. So that was a good point for Bennett. Yeah, when you when you face a guy as many times as the Whites Hawks and Cleveland have faced each other all season long, it gives them an advantage that Tampa Bay didn't have yesterday. And to be honest with you, after Tampa Bay had that early
15:34lead, they're all smiles, everything's going great. There's a little bit of a shock as you look at their faces as they were leaving the game, leaving the game yesterday because they knew they had that game one and let Cleveland stay in it. And uh yeah, something they haven't Tampa Bay has been so good in one-run games as for as long as I can remember.
15:54Um they don't lose those type of games, but they did yesterday. >> I I got a question for you guys. Do you think the trap being packed to the rafters is like hurts their home field advantage a little bit? Cuz this record that they compiled all season, I I went to a couple trap home games this year,
16:13like it is dead in there during a regular season game. Like dead. And I'm almost wondering if like having the place completely full and like going nuts like ne negate some of the edge they've had on here. I don't know. It's like it's just different. It it it it is it's like making them be the road team.
16:31It's like, "Hey, this is strange here." Uh it was it was funny watching the game there. There was a pretty good smattering of Cleveland fans there, but I noticed when Cleveland played Chicago in that championship game in Cleveland, I had a hard time spotting White Sox fans. I didn't hear anything. When White
16:51Sox did well, I didn't hear anything. Hats off to the Cleveland fans for not selling their tickets to uh to the opposition. We find that happen a lot out here in Vegas with our teams. Every time somebody comes to Vegas, you got your Raiders tickets, you know, you sell them. That's just the way it is. >> All 49er fans in the crowd.
17:08>> That's right. Yeah. I mean, I couldn't believe it. I went to the Twins series in April. So, I mean, probably not a very big draw, right? I raise Twins in April. not really going to draw, but like you know I like to do my arena arena concourse tours. Couldn't even get up to the top. It was roped off. The top
17:28wasn't even open. The entire top wasn't even open in April and it was full last night. So yeah, I just uh it's just it was just an interesting thought. I don't know how you could quantify that at all. What I what I will say is just from going back to the betting conversation here, my number doesn't like I'm not as
17:44off from the books tonight, but I'm still at like minus 110 on the Rays here. So, I do still show some value to the Guardians. Um, I only make the Rays minus 110 in this game. The books have them minus 130. Um, not surprising to me. I was about I was off more than 20 cents last night. Um, so I'm not
18:04surprised that my number still shows value to the Guardians. I think that's probably the way I would would play it if I was going to play it, but I have not played this one yet. Um, Randy says, "How can the bigger crowd make a difference?" Sounds like an excuse. >> Randy, it has nothing to do with it.
18:20It's not an excuse. It's It's just different than what they experienced all season. So, they compile this big home court uh home court. Sorry. They compile this big home field record all year and you're like, "Oh, the Rays are so good at home." But like I'm telling you that like all year there's 20,000 people in the crowd and and sometimes the upstairs
18:39is closed and now it's like full. It's just different. It was just more of an observation than anything. Brian, >> it reminds me of a of music where you got a band playing in a room by themsel practicing and then you got a room a full concert. You feed off each other and the players feed off the crowd. Um
18:59it's yeah it is just but it al you know there's all I I read a lot of scientific stuff and there's always been um the closer a team is to the the the fans are to the actual playing surface. It's like in in in Duke for college basketball it influences the it influences the
19:20officials also. So that's where the home advantage is. Like I said yesterday they get to bat in the ninth inning. Uh last in the ninth inning. there's your home advantage and the crowd. Uh when you don't have people bitching at you as an umpire, there's no reason for you to be influenced. But when everybody's SCREAMING AT YOU, oh it's just Yeah, it
19:43makes a difference. It really does. >> And and props to >> props to Tampa for showing up. Like this is I think it's the best crowd I've ever seen at the >> I agree. I was surprised to see this number. Um, given the fact that Messi's a better pitcher than Peralta overall and the Guardians have the better bullpen and
20:03they took care of business yesterday. I was kind of surprised to see this line to be honest. Um, but yeah, >> if Tampa wins that game, we don't see if Tampa wins that game, we don't see this line, >> right? This is more of a people are looking well Tampa can't get swept at home before they go what whatever the
20:21schedule looks like. >> Uh yeah, it's it's the need situation and Vegas knows that Tampa's the better team and uh they're playing at home and they're in need. >> Uh I say Vegas, but it's the betting public. Vegas doesn't do anything with it. >> More wins than being the better team. I don't know if that's the same thing.
20:39>> I I think these teams are I I think it's fair to call the Rays the better team. I all think it it's al also think it's fair to say that they're very close and and that that game one's line was not reflective of I think how close these two teams actually are. I don't think the game one series price or the the
20:58series price going into the series was reflective of how close these teams actually are. Now, we have a chat um we have someone in the chat saying, "Well, well, what about jumping in now with the raise on a series bet now that they're one- nothing?" Like I I think you know you're certainly would be getting better odds, but I got to be honest like what I
21:15I don't understand why people think the Guardians just can't win this series. I mean they got Parker Messi on the mound tonight. If they win this game, they're going back to Cleveland with a two nothing lead >> with Williams. >> Yeah. Like I I I don't really want any part of a Ray series bet here. Now I
21:33I'll be surprised if this series is settled in anything less than six or seven games. I think it's going to be somehow be competitive. But um you know the one the interesting thing here is like we haven't really talked much about Freddy Peralta and this has been my criticism of the Rays at times this year. I Baker is phenomenal. He's one of
21:52the best relievers in the game. But like those that middle six to eight for the Rays is what I think Tokyo Brandon's getting at where it's like the Rays bullpen, you know, I you look at the Guardians bullpen, maybe you see a little bit more depth there. Like the Rays, it's like you get the ball to Baker at the end of the game. It's
22:09probably good night, he's probably going to get you the win. >> But like inning six, seven, and eight, that's where they got beat yesterday. Ian Seymour comes into the game, that's what what ultimately gets them beat. Freddy Peralta, when was the last time he pitched more than five innings? I mean, he's probably not going more than four to five innings in this game. Um, I
22:25think you have to go I think he had a couple six inning outings for the Rays, but in a playoff game, do you think Freddy Peralta gets past the fifth inning here? I'd be shocked. I >> think he'll go five. >> Yeah, I think especially with what happened yesterday, I think they'll try to keep him in there for as long as he
22:41>> as long as possible. >> Yeah, but that's the feeling of everybody pretty much at this point. get in there, give it all you got for as long as you got and we'll deal with it, >> right? And that's the playoff feeling and but that's like Peralt. Now, I will say this and and credit to the Rays
22:57because they they they had a plan with getting Peralta, right? Like he had a terrible first half, arguably the worst half, one of the worst first halfs of the season of his career with the Mets. Uh shows up in Tampa, struggles those first couple starts. um he started pitching deeper in the game like once the Rays got their hands on him. He had
23:16a stretch where he went seven, six, six, and six. And if you look at his time in New York or the last couple years in Milwaukee, you rarely saw him pitch past the fifth inning. So, you know, credit to what the Rays have done with him. And it's part of the reason that I'm not rushing to bet against the Rays because
23:34they have unlocked like prime Freddy Peralta the last month or two. >> Yes, they have. And that might So we had another person in the chat say, you know, what about a first five under? >> What What's the number on that, Brian? >> First five. >> Is it three and a half? >> It's three and a half.
23:53>> Um I wouldn't argue against it. Um I like Peralta's numbers against these guys. I like the the White Socks argument that he's faced the White Sox so many times, which is why he struggled. I that kind of makes me lean towards an under as well. Uh Tampa didn't
24:14they got out hit yesterday. They they just put two runs up right off the bat and it just seemed like they went to sleep. Um they tried to cruise to a two nothing win and I don't know. It's I didn't I didn't see I didn't see a lethal lineup yesterday, but I saw Cleveland being extremely energetic and
24:33uh extremely frisky. So, I think that it looks like an under to me, but three and a half is really hard to bet under and three and a half in Major League Baseball. Um, I love four and a halfs, but three and a half is always a little precocious, I think. Or precarious, not precocious. >> Yeah. I mean, listen, you're you're
24:53talking and this is and this is where I you know, I it's hard doing these shows during the playoffs because I I I totally uh feel you're someone's in the so someone in the chat was like all that for an I don't know. And it's like it's like listen, you know what I'm saying? like that that unfortunately once we get
25:13down to like the World Series like there's there's going to be a lot of that on the this these shows because there's no there's very few edges at this point. >> The tightest lines. Yeah, it's the tightest lines all season >> and we don't want to lie to you and give you something we're not going to bet
25:30ourselves. So, >> right now on anything if you flip a coin, you know, but yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm sorry, but that's just the way it is. I I I don't give out anything. I'm not going to bet myself. And >> why would I? >> Now, the the good part about being at this part of the season is if if I do
25:49have something to bet, I'm probably just going to give it to you on the show for free. Um, so that's like I just I just haven't I I just haven't bet this one today. And I think you're going to see this a lot over the next couple weeks. Now, it doesn't mean you can't apply the discussion and the information that
26:04we're coming here and giving you to to try to make a bet. Um but yeah, it's just that is sort of where we're at on the season. The lines are going to be tight. Um the the days where there's two games, it might be easier to find something, but I mean this is, you know, the book the books are just not giving
26:20out money like they just don't hand money out. You know, when we have a full slate of 15 games on a Tuesday in August, the three of us are probably going to be able to find a couple edges that that are profitable. when we have one game and it's like the most what I mean it's it is the only game the books
26:37tend to do their job so it's just uh you know it's we we're doing our best um and that's why I'm trying to go like question by question just to find angles we'll go to B Vegas uh what about a nerfy here and a no run in first inning um I don't know Brian what about what do
26:54you think the first inning is going to look like >> uh I haven't to be honest with I haven't I don't play many of those. >> Ask Ask Ralph. DM Ralph call up the pen. >> Um I guess go uh closing closing thoughts here for this game since we see
27:14sort of beat it to death at this point. Uh I'll close out with I still I still see value on the Guardians on the number similar to like I did yesterday, but I didn't get to the window with it yesterday. I don't know if I'll get to to the window with it today. from just a straight up line value standpoint on
27:31that minus 110 with the raise. So, I don't know that I'd lay minus 130 with the raise. Uh, sorry, I don't have more than that. Any, you know, Tokyo Brandon, any final thoughts, promos that you want to throw out there for, Bill before we get off air? >> Yeah, it's $5 Tuesday. Everything's $5 or free except the 5% plays. Wager
27:50Talk's doing a special for me. It's my Japanese, Korean, and MLB rest of the season for $99. They also put together a special for my uh Japanese, Chinese, and Euro League basketball. So, uh go to wageralk.com and see what is up. I do have a five dollar play up today. So, I
28:14get confused between $5 and 5%. So, if I said 5%, >> it's not 5% Tuesday, guys. It's $5 Tuesday. And the 5% plays are still regular price. So, >> yeah. I I also have uh I've got a college football playup right now uh on an 84 and 48 college football run.
28:35>> Number one overall. I went back to the beginning of football season. Number one overall in net profit in college and NFL football combined. >> Um I I leaned to the under in the baseball game. 7 minus 120. That would be my limit. Um, and uh I'll be doing the hockey show in about an hour and a
28:53half here and I'm sure I'll have some hockey up 17 and five on the uh hockey season and I'll be on the show at uh at 8:00 Pacific. Carmine myself and uh unfortunately I think press is on today. So uh >> yeah, that's probably Listen, that's where the the day-to-day value right now is probably in the hockey. So, I would I
29:12would strongly suggest uh if you're looking for actionable info that you head over uh head back here around 11:00 a.m. Eastern, I think um for the hockey show because that's uh that's absolutely the uh the you know that's the time of year for hockey for sure. So, and they do a great job on that show. You should
29:31be watching it. Anyway, uh before we get out of here, it is $5 Tuesday, so check out the site for $5 plays. All the handicappers will have $5 plays up today. And uh that's it for us. The the three of us will be back here in the morning uh to discuss game three of the NLCS, which is the only game on the
29:50slate for tomorrow. Um so good luck today if you decide to get involved and the three of us will see you in the morning.