Tuesday MLB Playoffs Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | Total Bases 10/6

0:03All right, welcome in. It is Tuesday.

0:05That means it's $5 Tuesday at Wager

0:07Talk. And it also means it's time for

0:10Total Bases. Uh just a two-man show

0:12today. Tokyo Brandon uh is battling the

0:15Tokyo traffic. Uh and the Tokyo Traffic

0:17seems to have won at this point because

0:19he's not going to make it home in time

0:22for the show. Uh it's like the only

0:24thing he's losing uh is to the traffic.

0:26I think he had another really good day.

0:27yesterday he he said he hit his five%

0:30play. Um which I believe was on the the

0:33White Socks scoring in some fashion or

0:36or runs in that game. Um so let's start

0:39with a quick rehab uh recap. I I pulled

0:42up the yesterday's plays tab. Uh so if

0:44you ever want to know what people have

0:45done the day before on the wager talk

0:47site, very easy to do so. Uh you go to

0:50the uh go to the expert link yesterday's

0:53plays. You can see the results from

0:55yesterday. Brian, did I see you with a

0:57White Sox ticket yesterday in that game?

1:00>> I I ended up using the White Socks. I'd

1:03like the White Sox team total over. Uh

1:06yeah, it was a perfect three and0 day

1:08for me. I went two and 0 hockey now 11

1:11and two. Hockey show starts in two

1:13hours. I'll be on there if you want to

1:14see if I use any of those plays on the

1:17show. But uh yeah, I I I went over the

1:20list today and I said, "Man," he says,

1:22"I've been I I I've been on such a good

1:25run and then I look and I'm number one

1:27overall the last 30, but I see Tokyo

1:29Brandon right behind me." So, uh yeah,

1:33and uh it's it's been a battle between

1:35all of us, you know, all season long

1:36trying to pass each other up in the net

1:39profit. I believe I'm number one over

1:41the last like 14 15 months, but uh I

1:45believe I'm up to number five for this

1:47calendar year. So, I'm going to knock

1:50one of you I'm look hoping to knock one

1:52of you guys off that Mount Rushmore of

1:54uh profit on the year pretty soon.

1:57>> Yeah, I I can't see I last few weeks

2:00I'll I'll break the hundred unit mark,

2:03lose a lose a game or two, get back up

2:05to the hundred unit mark, lose a game or

2:07two. Uh so that was how it went for me

2:09on Sunday. 0 and2 last night had the

2:12Falcons easy winner 4% play. So my only

2:15uh play hit yesterday. Um but yeah like

2:18I I logged in just taking a look because

2:21I wanted to make sure we we gave TV the

2:23the shout out and I think he went like

2:25three and one overall yesterday. Uh but

2:28yeah, seeing you put the fandom aside

2:29for a minute uh to take that good price

2:31for the White Socks and um you and I

2:34were kind of texting last night. I I I I

2:37thought they got um got away with the

2:39Grant Taylor decision. I I totally get

2:41what Venal's trying to do. Uh but I

2:43think they got away with one there. Uh

2:44Joe Adelmish tying it that game by a

2:47foot and uh somehow Progressive Field

2:50held a couple of long fly balls which uh

2:52you know saved the game for the White

2:54Socks.

2:55>> Yeah, I I actually got out and had lunch

2:57with my brother-in-law. He's uh he he's

3:00he's the general um let's just let's

3:03just say he would be considered not

3:05sharp. Um and he always asked me, "What

3:08do you got?" And uh he goes, "I played

3:10hockey today." And he he told me, I

3:12says, "Yeah, I got the same, too." And

3:14I'm starting to question myself because

3:16I don't want to be on the same side as

3:18as him. And then he goes, "Oh, I got I

3:20got the you're Indians." And I said,

3:22"Oh, I got Chicago." And he freaked him

3:24out. He goes, "You bet against your

3:26team." I said, "Hey, heart and head are

3:28two different things here." So,

3:30>> yep.

3:31>> Um, yeah, if Clever would have won, I'd

3:33been happy with it from a fandom, but

3:35it's not going to make me happy with my,

3:37you know, record and the customers, you

3:39know.

3:40>> Yeah. I mean, we we do this every single

3:42day. So, that the sting of the loss

3:43would wear off after about five minutes

3:45and then you're sitting there like,

3:46well, at least the at least the

3:47Guardians won. Uh, but those two series,

3:50we'll have to wait till tomorrow. Today

3:52it's all about the National League,

3:54Brian, and we are going with uh so the

3:56you know, we've got a pair of National

3:58League Division series matchups. We've

4:00got one series that could be over after

4:02today, but we're going to start with the

4:04other one. We at least know we're going

4:06to get a game four uh between the

4:08Dodgers and the Braves. Uh what a what a

4:11win for the Braves in game two to be

4:13able to go out in Dodger Stadium,

4:17bullpen game, and get a a win in that

4:20game. Uh, you know, you and I texted

4:21about Grant Taylor last night. Uh, a

4:24decision I didn't really agree with that

4:26paid off. I I gotta be honest. I don't

4:28know if I agreed with I don't think I

4:30agreed with pushing Sale to game three,

4:33but I suppose it it did. I guess it paid

4:36off uh with the fact that the Braves

4:38won, but you're still only going to get

4:40him for one start here. So, uh yeah,

4:42just I I guess talk to me about this

4:44series to this point because we really

4:45haven't got to talk about this one much.

4:47Of course, game one occurred on um or

4:50I'm sorry, we game two occurred on on

4:52Sunday when we didn't have a show. And

4:54uh who do you like here, Dodgers or

4:56Braves?

4:57>> Yeah, they have said that uh Sale has

5:00already come out and said that he could

5:01pitch relief on game five if they get to

5:04a game five. We will see. Uh they

5:07putting a lot of pressure on an older

5:08guy and uh but we'll see. he, you know,

5:12he's other than when he played in

5:14Boston, we get hurt all the time, he

5:16he's been very consistent over the years

5:18and future Hall of Famer in his own

5:20right. Uh so we've got Sale at home. Um

5:23he's the lefty against Yamamoto who's

5:25been terrific as well. Two of the best

5:28pitchers in baseball here. And because

5:30of that, we're seeing some low totals

5:31here. We're seeing some it's it's

5:33basically sitting right now halfway

5:35between six and six and a half. So you

5:37can make your choice on there. and sale

5:40right now is basically the same thing

5:42with the side. It's basically a pick

5:44them side right now. So, uh really good

5:47uh really good matchup here in Atlanta.

5:51And you take a look at what Atlanta

5:53batters have done lately. And uh yeah,

5:56Aonia is struggling a little bit, but he

5:58did get uh I think it was a key hit a

6:00couple days ago, but uh he and uh your

6:02scripts is struggling, Albz is

6:04struggling, Murphy is struggling. So

6:07they're basically been dealing with

6:08Baldwin Paris and uh Mauricio Duban who

6:13you know coming in the season I didn't

6:15think much about Duban and he's really

6:18given them a nice season there. He he's

6:21been the glue that's held them together

6:22all season long from a pitching

6:24standpoint. We're looking at Sale he's

6:26been unhitable at home like like a 1.7

6:30RA or something but he's really good on

6:31the road too. Um obviously um with the

6:35day off yesterday it helps the bullpen.

6:37Fuentes did throw 47 pitches on Sunday.

6:40He is talking about indispensable

6:43players. He's been terrific for them

6:44this year. Uh so other than him he he

6:48may still pitch. He had the previous two

6:50two days off before that. But I wouldn't

6:52use him if I was the manager there. But

6:54uh everybody else is available. Uh

6:56looking at the Dodger situation, uh

6:59Dodgers, a team that uh everybody thinks

7:02is going to win it all and uh they

7:04especially did after that first game of

7:05the series. They're still struggling a

7:07little bit offensively. They're better

7:09hitters have been Will Smith's doing

7:11okay in the bottom of the order. Uh Pas

7:14and Edmund are hitting very well, but uh

7:17they're more consistent overall. I Mie's

7:20home run or nothing right now. And Otani

7:23is just not right. Otani's timing is

7:25down. The injuries have hurt him. Um,

7:30he's not the same pitcher or it's not

7:31the same hitter we saw earlier in this

7:33season. Um, we're getting uh Yamamoto

7:36pitching. Yamamoto great. Like I said,

7:38he's he's one of the best pitchers in

7:40baseball. And their bullpen, even though

7:42um Sasaki threw 36 pitches on Sunday, um

7:46he may not pitch and I'm not sure I want

7:49him in there, he's still dealing with

7:51those control problems. that that's

7:52where they got in trouble bringing him

7:54in. Um but otherall the bullpen's in

7:57pretty good shape. So, you know, this

8:00from a hitting standpoint, this this

8:02ballpark, it's uh it does give up the

8:05home runs, but overall it's pretty

8:08average ballpark for the most part. Uh

8:11if you can get a six and a half and

8:13minus 120, which is where it is right

8:15now, that would be the way I would go.

8:17Uh, I'd much rather have that than the

8:19uh the six minus 105 or so. I think I

8:24think uh it very much could end at six.

8:27So, uh if I'm playing I think I'm

8:30looking at the total under um one quick

8:33look at the first half. Let's go. The

8:37first half is looking at basically sale

8:39slight favorite one 120 with total of

8:42three under or two and a half over. I I

8:45would rather have the full game here. So

8:47let's slight slight edge to the under 6

8:4912 - 120.

8:53>> Yeah. So my first thought when I saw the

8:56the number the matchup confirmed the

8:58number come out for this game. Um right

9:02right there coin flip Yamamoto Sale

9:05tremendous matchup. Um you've got you

9:08know we saw this matchup during the

9:10regular season. and I believe Chris Sale

9:11threw a complete game and won one-

9:14nothing and like Yamamoto went like

9:15seven innings and was equally as

9:18awesome. Um, and so my that was my like

9:20initial reaction was like, oh, like what

9:22a what a great like this is going to be

9:23an awesome game playoff game. You you

9:26can't ask for for better than than this

9:28from a from a viewing standpoint. But,

9:30you know, I started to think about it

9:32and I said, "Wait a minute. The the

9:34Dodgers were north of a $2 favorite in

9:38game two." Okay. Like they they ended up

9:40going off something like minus 220 when

9:44that was all said and done. Now that

9:45moved it moved considerably during the

9:48day. I think I think once um once the

9:51Braves sort of like revealed their plan

9:53of like we're going to move Chris Sale

9:55back to game three, Tyler Mi probably

9:59game four. Like I I think that started

10:01to move the number you know where it

10:04ended up. But still the Dodgers went off

10:06a considerable favorite in that game.

10:09Braves found a way to win, which again I

10:11don't think is that crazy. Listen,

10:12bullpen games bullpen games could be

10:15tough. If you if you watch that Braves

10:18game, like Fuentes had his best stuff,

10:21looked awesome. Uh Kerr had really good

10:23stuff. like that. I'd almost argue that

10:27a bullpen game where everyone's firing

10:29on all cylinders and has great stuff is

10:32like just as difficult or maybe even

10:34more difficult than Chris Sale as a

10:37starter, right? Like where like you've

10:39got to figure out three or four guys,

10:41they're playing matchups, everyone's

10:43locking it down. Like that could be a

10:46tougher task for the Dodgers than just

10:49preparing for six or seven innings of

10:51Chris Sale because you have to think

10:53here, you know, it's a 1-1 series. This

10:56is going to go it's to win this series,

10:58you at least have to win if you're the

10:59Braves, you have to win today and

11:00tomorrow. So they still they still need

11:04bullpen arms at some point. I think we

11:06think Tyler Mali's pitching game four,

11:08but he's also dealing with injuries like

11:10he could get scratched in warm-ups. They

11:12almost scratched him in warm-ups of game

11:14two. So, I I I just think that like the

11:17Braves are kind of looking at this as

11:19the Chris Sale game where it's like he's

11:21probably going to be allowed to go a

11:23third time through the order. You know,

11:25it's his game. Look at the Phillies

11:27game. Like, he got into the seventh

11:28inning, things got a little bit sketchy.

11:30He still gave up three runs to the

11:32Phillies in that game. I thought he

11:34looked I thought he was solid. Do I

11:36think he was like totally dominant

11:38against the Phillies? Now, he still gave

11:41up three runs, and that's a lineup

11:43that's not great at hitting left-handed

11:44pitching. When you and it's also a

11:46lineup that's pretty topheavy when you

11:47get outside of the Harper Schwarber in

11:49that Phillies lineup. A good a really

11:52good pitcher is going to be able to

11:53navigate the bottom of that Phillies

11:55order. Brian, I the Dodgers is a much

11:58tougher lineup. I know they didn't hit

11:59in game two, but again, they they they

12:02ran into Fuentes throwing nasty stuff

12:05like four guys that came in and threw re

12:07like just all had their best stuff. it

12:09seemed like on the same day. I kind of

12:12think the Dodgers figure Chris Sale out

12:14with three cracks at him here. I'm

12:17assuming that the Dodgers are going to

12:18get to go three times through the order

12:20against Chris Sale. The only way they

12:22don't go three times through the order

12:23against Chris Sail is if they get to him

12:25in on time one or time two, right? So,

12:28you're going to see Sale three times

12:30through the order. I think this Dodgers

12:31lineup can figure that out at some

12:33point. Whereas, like I like look at

12:35Yamamoto's postseason numbers. Um,

12:37insane. He has unbelievable playoff

12:40numbers since coming to the States. It's

12:42something like I think it's like seven

12:44and one, a ridiculous ERA, a whole bunch

12:47of strikeouts. He's been awesome. And um

12:50something that I'm I'm kind of the wheel

12:52started to turn a little bit for me with

12:55like oh well he's coming off extended

12:57rest because the Dodgers of course had

12:58the week off. In Japan they do something

13:01called a climax series and they do it in

13:03Korea too. This is in Asia. the best

13:06teams go straight to the final oftent

13:09times or the best teams go like you know

13:12it's almost like a ladder format for the

13:14playoffs. So this is a very normal thing

13:16to have a good amount of rest between

13:19the end of the regular season and the

13:21start of the playoffs in in both Korea

13:23and Japan if you're if you finish on the

13:25best team you might have three to four

13:27weeks before you play another game. They

13:29actually they'll do something where they

13:31go to almost like uh spring training.

13:33they'll they'll go to like a nice uh

13:36really nice uh destination and they'll

13:38bring teams in to play sort of

13:41exhibition games just to keep them

13:43sharp. So like I I like Yamamoto off the

13:46extended rest. He's been doing it his

13:48entire career if you factor in all the

13:51time he had in Japan. And I think that's

13:53pro and because they're so disciplined

13:55and he probably has done it forever. I

13:57think that's probably why his playoff

13:59numbers are so good. And and again,

14:02you're going to give me Yamamoto here. I

14:04think he's better than Sale Sale off of

14:06whatever that bullpen thing was coming

14:09in to close out a game with a four-run

14:10lead. And and the fact that I he's 37 38

14:14years old at this point. Sales playoff

14:16numbers have been really bad up until

14:18this year like great. I guess I guess

14:20like what I'm saying, Brian, is I don't

14:23He had a good start against the

14:24Phillies. He still gave up three runs.

14:26He still got hit hard in the playoffs

14:28over the years. He's an older guy and

14:30for God knows what reason he was a

14:32closer in game three in a four-run game.

14:35I I just think there's so much more to

14:37like about the Dodgers here and you're

14:39going to give them to me at a pick - 105

14:41- 108 - 110. Kind of think that the

14:45Dodgers should be a bigger favorite and

14:46I'm getting a bargain. So I I do like

14:48the uh the visitors here.

14:50>> That's a hell of a breakdown. That was

14:53worth the price of admission on the show

14:54today which was zero. But still, it was

14:57very impressive.

14:59>> Um, and I will say as opposed to some

15:02games that were played yesterday where,

15:04you know, Cleveland, Chicago, they

15:06they're division rivals. They know each

15:08other very well. They played each other

15:09five pitched against each other like

15:11five times. I believe one guy has only

15:14faced the opposition once this year and

15:15the other one's only faced them twice.

15:17So, uh, that's an advantage to the

15:19pitching. Um,

15:23what do you think about um Atlanta team

15:25total under?

15:27>> Yeah, I I I mean, listen, I think you

15:30look at what Yamamoto's done in the

15:31playoffs, he's he's been nearly

15:34unhitable at times. The one thing I I

15:36guess I where I'll I'll get away from

15:38maybe an Atlanta team total under is

15:41they do hit right-handed pitching

15:43better. Like they like this lineup

15:45stacks up a little bit better against

15:46right-handed pitching. So, I I just

15:48assume I just assume that you're going

15:50to pay a little bit of a a premium to

15:52take a team total under against

15:54Yamamoto. I haven't even looked at what

15:56it is, but again, like

15:59could it be a very similar game to what

16:02we saw Sale Yamamoto during the regular

16:04season where it's like 2-1, 32, one? I

16:07believe that game specifically was one-

16:09nothing um with Sale throwing the

16:11complete game. So, yeah, I could kind of

16:13see that. But then again, here's the

16:15thing. Uh, Brian, I don't know if I

16:17would want a I don't know if I would

16:18want a full game total because I just

16:20think you're asking for it with all the

16:22firepower in this Dodgers lineup. Like I

16:24I think I think the Bra I don't think

16:27the Braves are going to score many runs

16:28here. So to to answer your initial

16:30question, I don't think the Braves are

16:31going to score many runs, but I would

16:33stay away from the full game total

16:34because I just think like when the

16:37Dodgers kind of hit, it tends to be in

16:40bunches, right? Like I I they could get

16:44like if they break through against sale

16:45and that's the other thing. If they

16:47break through against sale, suddenly

16:48business decisions are going to be made,

16:50right? All the good relievers for the

16:51Braves are going to be put on game four.

16:54We the Braves are probably going to need

16:56one more bullpen game to win this series

16:58at some point. So you might see mopup

17:00duty if the Dodgers get in a lead here.

17:02Maybe maybe a good in-game angle. Um, if

17:05the Dodgers are are let's say the

17:06Dodgers are up three nothing and sale

17:08comes out of the game, you're going to

17:10see the the it's going to be the back

17:12end of the Braves bullpen uh cleaning

17:14things up and you might get your full

17:16game over from that.

17:18>> I I will admit that uh I agree with your

17:21situation there. If sale is hit, the

17:25there's more of a chance for the Dodgers

17:27to win in a blowout. I'm looking at the

17:29Dodgers minus one and a half. you can

17:31get basically 160 165 back if uh to win

17:36by a margin. Now, obviously with a game

17:39total of six, six and a quart or

17:41whatever, uh you're not going to get as

17:42many blowouts, but still that that's

17:45pretty impressive price. If uh because

17:48if they do get to sale, uh they've got a

17:50huge advantage because do they does

17:53Atlanta give this game up and just say,

17:54"Okay, get the get their lesser

17:57relievers or uh do they continue to

17:59fight?" Uh based on what they did with

18:02Sale the other day, who knows? because I

18:05didn't think they needed to use him

18:06either.

18:08But we'll see. It should be should be a

18:10fun game.

18:12>> And that brings us to uh you know to to

18:15the next game. Uh you mentioned price of

18:18admission being free. Like really price

18:19of admission is only $5 today because

18:21it's Tuesday. So everything on the site

18:24is going to be five bucks. Um I have a

18:26play up for $5. Tokyo Brandon has one.

18:28Brian, do you have anything up on the

18:30site for $5?

18:32>> Two shows in the morning here. Once I'm

18:33done with those shows, I'll put

18:35everything up. I just I can get more

18:37sales by putting them up early, but I

18:39want to have all my information before I

18:41do and preparing for the show and

18:43everything. So, uh, yeah, it'll be up

18:46after the hockey show, probably within a

18:48half an hour, an hour after that.

18:51>> Yeah, I I said I was going to I said on

18:53yesterday's show, I I I had felt

18:54stronger about both of these games

18:56today. Um, so again, I it's just the way

18:59it worked out putting putting, you know,

19:02they're going to go two games on on each

19:03day. Uh, spread them out for us to give

19:05us more standalone sort of prime time

19:07spots. So, uh, game number two for today

19:10is going to be game three in Padres's

19:13Braves. You know, Brian, I I think this

19:16one I'm starting to think a little bit

19:17more about. Um, I

19:20on one hand I think if you watched

19:23Brewers Padres's this weekend, you you

19:25could make a case that over the course

19:27of 18 innings, the Padres's were the

19:29better team of across 18 innings. Uh,

19:32you could make another case that they

19:34they should have won. Oh, I don't know

19:36if you want to say should have, but like

19:38winning both like the Padres's could

19:40very easily be up two nothing in this

19:42series. Ball hits the roof. Brewers

19:45break through against one of the best

19:47closers in recent memory. One of the

19:50best closers uh in the history of the

19:52game, you could even say at this point,

19:53obviously short sample size, but it

19:56looks like that's where he's going. Um

19:57so the Brewers needed to do that to get

20:00to 20. On the other hand, you can look

20:02and say, well, the Padres's

20:05were like they lost to those two games,

20:08right? Could they could it could they

20:09have played any better? I don't know.

20:11But they ended up still losing both of

20:14those games.

20:16I I I on one hand, I don't think they

20:18get swept, but on the other hand, are do

20:20you feel like this is a little bit of a

20:22uh must-win tax being placed on this uh

20:25game from a pricing standpoint?

20:27>> Yeah, very well could be. We're looking

20:29at Paveta being about a 130 favorite.

20:32It's going up a little bit, maybe 132.

20:35Uh seven and a half to the under

20:38slightly minus 115 120. Um,

20:42I think Paveta is the better pitcher out

20:44of the two. Uh, I like May, but he's

20:48been very consistent. They've been

20:50they've been

20:52playing him, playing around with him.

20:53They'll bring him in. He'll let him

20:55start three innings. Then they next day

20:56they'll try to get seven out of them.

20:59Um, they've got a deep pitching staff,

21:01so I don't expect him to go long in this

21:04game. Uh, maybe maybe three. If they can

21:06get four out of them, they'd be very

21:07happy. Um but um when I'm taking a look

21:11at what Dustin May has done so far this

21:13season, um his home RA is better than

21:18his road. And if you take a look at his

21:19advanced stats, uh they bear that out.

21:21He's much better at home than he's been

21:23on the road. Um from a game log

21:26standpoint, he's got a 50 game score on

21:28the season. Makes him an average

21:29pitcher. But overall, if you take a look

21:32at what he's done lately, uh he's had a

21:3643 against St. Lewis, a 36 against

21:38Philadelphia, 29 against Baltimore. Uh

21:42he did face Cincinnati, got a 76, so

21:45that was on the back end of only

21:47throwing a 45 at him at the at the

21:49previous start. Then he had a 34, a 42,

21:51and a 14. So he's only had one good

21:53start in the last

21:56two months. One good start in the last

21:57two months or so. So I don't know how

22:00long he's going to go in there. They've

22:01been using him a lot lately. He's going

22:03three, two, two and a quarter. Then they

22:04hit that six against Cincinnati. it was

22:06the only game in which he's been in

22:08there for for long at all. Um so I don't

22:11I wouldn't expect much out of him. Uh

22:13maybe three innings and uh they'll have

22:16their bullpen come in. They did have to

22:19use their top three bullpen arms on

22:21Saturday and Sunday, but they did have

22:22yesterday off and uh so they'll be

22:26available. So everybody's going to be

22:27available there. Uh from a hitting

22:29standpoint, uh Cherion and Tang have

22:31been great at the top of the order, but

22:33uh a lot of the other guys have been

22:35slapping a little bit. So, they haven't

22:36gotten everybody into the ball game, but

22:39the way they play, um, Milwaukee, you

22:42know, to me, they play a lot like the

22:44old National League where you get on

22:45base, you steal bases, you singles,

22:47hitters, everybody does everything the

22:49right way. And so, they're always

22:51dangerous no matter what they play. They

22:54don't have to deal with the home needing

22:57home runs to win, which is what the

22:59Braves usually do. Sort of like the

23:01Yankees kind of thing. Um the Braves are

23:04expected to go with Chris Sail today and

23:07he's been terrific and obviously from a

23:09hitting standpoint uh like as I

23:11mentioned um

23:15um the Braves. What am I looking at? The

23:17Braves. Uh sorry about that. I got the

23:20wrong team here. No wonder I was screwed

23:21up. Uh San Diego, sorry. San Diego.

23:26Uh okay. From a hitting standpoint, we

23:28got Tatis at the top. Harris has been

23:31okay. Machado has been good. Uh Ethos

23:34Alice been he he was a guy number one

23:37catcher for years in the minors. I kept

23:39wanting to bring him up. I didn't think

23:40he would hit well enough. Uh but he's

23:42he's done pretty well for them so far. I

23:44like I do like their catching. Uh

23:46Capasano is also a guy I like for years.

23:48So I like I like the future of catching

23:50in San Diego obviously. Um but they're

23:53going with Nick Paveta. He's been very

23:55good as of late. Let's take a quick look

23:57at his numbers. I do apologize once

23:59again for picking on the wrong team

24:01again. Um, you take a look at his splits

24:04on the season.

24:06Um, we're looking at uh three-run at

24:10home, 2.63 away. He's only thrown he

24:13hasn't thrown many pitches so far this

24:16season, but when he has, he's been very

24:17good from from a gameong standpoint. Got

24:2257 game score on the season, and it's

24:25been very consistent. His his only bad

24:27start of the year was his first start of

24:29the season. He took on Detroit, had a

24:3124, but since then, and keep in mind

24:33this is between a lot of he missed like

24:35five months worth of injuries. 72, 62,

24:3862, 68, 47, 55, 65. He's much more

24:42consistent. Uh, from an inning

24:44standpoint, he's been very much he's

24:47been going four or five and fly. So, uh,

24:49I think the bullpens will be a big part

24:51of this game here. I prefer PA as a

24:54starter. I uh I like Milwaukee overall

24:58as a team better, but a problem I'm

25:02running into is like you mentioned, the

25:05San Diego line is a little bit of a

25:07penalty if you're looking to play them.

25:08I if I was looking I would I would have

25:11made this a pick them and it would been

25:1420 25 and you're paying about 10 cents

25:17too much if you ask me which puts uh

25:20some slight value on Milwaukee.

25:23Um, if I do I can get three good innings

25:25out of May, I would play Milwaukee here.

25:28But, uh, I don't have to bet it just

25:31because it's on the schedule and I'll

25:33probably be sitting it out.

25:35>> Yeah. What if what if I told you you

25:37could get seven good innings or nine

25:39good innings out of May. The reason I

25:41bring that up is that's what he did the

25:43last two times he faced this Padres's

25:45lineup. So, you reference you reference

25:47his best like one of his best starts.

25:49you know, he's really only had one or

25:50two good starts uh the last two months

25:52since since showing up in Milwaukee. Uh

25:54but one of those was against the

25:56Padres's where he went seven innings of

25:58one-run ball, four hits, six strikeouts.

26:00His best start of the season, he was

26:03still on the Cardinals, was also against

26:05the Padres's. Nine innings, one hit,

26:08nine strikeouts, a complete game shutout

26:11for May against this Padres's team. He

26:13actually faced them in May. Um still on

26:16the Cardinals. another another start

26:18where he went six innings, three runs,

26:21and I believe he got the win. So, I

26:24don't know what there is to that, but uh

26:26Drake May so far, or Drake May, sorry,

26:28uh Dustin May

26:30>> so far this year has had three of his

26:33best starts of his entire season have

26:36all come against this Padres's team. So,

26:38you know, do what you will with that. I

26:40don't think it means that the Padres's

26:42can't make the adjustment and hit him

26:43here, but we should point out he's had

26:45some success against this team. And this

26:48this lineup, I mean, the Padres's lineup

26:50uh really hasn't changed. Granted, some

26:53of their some of their allstars are now

26:55playing like all star. We know earlier

26:57in the season guys like uh Tatis,

27:00Machado, Merrill were all struggling big

27:03time. Uh and now they're starting to

27:05play better, but it's still the same

27:06lineup. Uh so again, something to point

27:09out. Um there as far as the Brewers are

27:12concerned though, Brian, I mean I the

27:16last month or so it's almost like

27:18they've sort of are starting to look at

27:20May as this like once through the order

27:22guy. I thought that's how they'd kind of

27:24use him in the postseason. It's just

27:26like okay once through the order and

27:28we're we're sitting on like all this

27:30pitching so we'll go to someone else. So

27:32that that's to me that's interesting for

27:34the Brewers because it's like okay

27:36you've got a guy that's dominated this

27:39lineup so far this year. But you have

27:41the insurance policy of like I guess you

27:44you have the the ability to say oh okay

27:46they figured him out or he doesn't have

27:48his best stuff and then you can go to

27:50like one of your other you know 10

27:54really good you know pitching options.

27:56Uh the Brewers are just like loaded with

27:58pitching. So that that to me, yeah, I'm

28:01kind of like, and here's the thing, like

28:03I I'm not super high on Paveta. I think

28:06I said the Cubs would get to him. And

28:08even though the Cubs couldn't get to him

28:10in the form of like, you know, breaking

28:12it open and putting a crooked number up

28:14on him, they still had him out in the

28:16fourth inning. Like I still thought for

28:18the most part the Cubs had pretty good

28:20at bats against Paveta and they just

28:22couldn't fully cash in. So, like, yeah,

28:25like I just don't know if I can get

28:26behind Paveta being like a$135 favorite.

28:30And I'll pull up a comment here that I

28:32think has some some, you know, is worth

28:35talking about. Jacob Hefner says, "I

28:38think the Padres's have to be feeling

28:39way down after the first two games. The

28:41series reminds me of the NBA finals.

28:43Nick Spurs Spurs outplayed the Knicks

28:45and lost the series four to one." Yeah,

28:48like I if you told if going into the

28:50series, Brian, if you told me Mason

28:53Miller was going to blow a save, I say

28:55there is zero chance the Padres's can

28:57win this series. I if if they blow a

29:00lead with Miller on the mound, zero

29:02chance they can win this series. So like

29:05how much of the you know, I mean, again,

29:07I'd like to think in front of their home

29:08crowd, they can probably shake it and

29:10come to play, but like that's tough.

29:12They've got to be feeling like they

29:14could have won game one or game two or

29:16both of them and now they're going to

29:17have to win three straight to win the

29:19series. It's uh it's worth pointing out

29:23>> if they do win this one though. Um they

29:27got to be feeling pretty good because

29:28like you as you said they they they

29:31probably should have at least split or

29:34may had a chance to win them both. And

29:36if they were able to get this one, you

29:38know, it's like they say, uh, they said,

29:40just just give us just give us a chance.

29:44And if they get that chance, the way

29:45they've been playing the second half of

29:46the season, they're they're right back

29:48in it. But yeah, I I didn't realize May

29:52had played them so well, which kind of

29:55makes the seven and a half look like

29:56somewhat of a bargain on the under. Uh,

30:00but yeah, like like we said, uh, I don't

30:02think either starter is going to go more

30:04than four innings or so. So then you get

30:06the bullpens and we'll see what happen.

30:08Yeah, the Miller the Miller situation.

30:11Uh

30:13you get guys being counted on in

30:15different ways in the playoffs as

30:16opposed to the regular season and as TB

30:19will say guys are in a in a situation

30:22where they're uh they get used to a

30:24certain way of doing things and they're

30:26not going to pull them. You know what

30:28are you going to do?

30:30>> Listen, not every not everyone's Grant

30:32Taylor. Not everyone not everyone can

30:34just roll out of bed and uh go into the

30:36game at any point in time and get a win,

30:38I guess. So, yeah, that's uh honestly

30:41that's what I thought. That's kind of

30:42what I thought what the White Socks have

30:45have done was what I kind of thought the

30:47Padres's would be able to do in this

30:48series if they got a lead. But it didn't

30:51work out in game two and they had a

30:53lead. And it's going to be really

30:55interesting to see how they respond

30:57here. I just I just couldn't get over

30:59like and hey you but you might see some

31:01Brewers money throughout the day. I

31:03think that's what I'll probably wait

31:05for. Uh I my gut tells me the Padres's

31:08are still playing baseball tomorrow and

31:10they live to see another day. They find

31:11a way in this one. But at minus 135

31:14that's I I just don't agree with that

31:16price.

31:17>> Yeah, I agree. I agree. It is it is too

31:20high. You're you're paying a penance if

31:23uh if you're looking to play them.

31:25doesn't mean it's the right not going to

31:26be the right side. But as I say all the

31:29time, we're we're looking at uh we're

31:32looking to get the best of the number

31:33and I'm not so sure we will.

31:36>> I will say this though to people in the

31:37chat like if Ma listen if Mason Miller

31:41was tipping his pitches, he's not going

31:43to be tipping them anymore, right? Like

31:45that's the one thing that if you know

31:47about him tipping his pitches, he's no

31:48longer tipping his pitches. I think

31:50Brian's made that point a couple times

31:51where it's like, you know, it it's with

31:54with the social media and stuff like

31:56that, like it it gets out very quickly.

31:59I'm sure if he was doing something

32:01that's that's a not an issue anymore.

32:03I'm pretty sure if Mason Miller gets

32:05into this game, uh, he won't be tipping

32:07his pitches. So, don't worry about

32:09>> it. Would be in the back of his mind,

32:10though. He goes, "Okay, further into the

32:12glove."

32:14I think the fact that he's seen his own

32:16blood a little bit would be in the back

32:17of his mind here where it's like, you

32:18know, he know I mean like that's got to

32:21mess with your your mentality as a

32:23closer if he's in a one-run game.

32:25>> You know, the Brewer I mean I think that

32:26would be a confidence builder for the

32:28Brewers to know that they've already

32:29gotten to him. um that we've seen like

32:32that's something we've seen over the

32:33years in playoff series where if you can

32:36get to a closer early in like one of

32:39these big series

32:41I I feel like and again I'm just going

32:43off of memory like playoff history like

32:45there's there's like a lot of times you

32:48get to a closer early and it's like they

32:49seem to get to him again at some point

32:51in the series. I don't know if it's a

32:52mental thing. I mean, you know, like the

32:56one that comes to mind, Brian, is to me

32:58like is always like Bong Hung Kim where,

33:00you know what I mean? Like he in the

33:01World Series like the Yankees got to him

33:03early and then he's just like

33:05>> guy was seeing ghosts at Yankee Stadium.

33:07Like again, it does happen like where

33:11you get to a guy early in the series and

33:13suddenly the fear of facing Mason Miller

33:15at the end of the game isn't there

33:17anymore. But like again, it's uh I I

33:19think this will be an interesting game

33:21three. you know, there's just a lot.

33:23It's the playoffs. Like, you're you

33:26you're gonna probably be able to make a

33:28case for either side in most of these

33:30games. The goal is to try to figure out

33:33which one is stronger and then I I think

33:35which one makes more sense based on uh

33:37where the number is priced. So, again,

33:40uh

33:42this is this is the playoff, so you're

33:43not going to have like clearcut edges

33:46like the regular season.

33:47>> Yeah.

33:50Um the AKID A13, when's college

33:54basketball starting? November 1st. Um

33:56actually, I believe are the first uh

33:58very first college basketball games. Um

34:00our very first college basketball show

34:03will be Monday the 2nd. Uh I'll be on

34:06with Rob Veno. Um we don't know what

34:08time it's going to be yet because I'm

34:10going to be at games all night. So I am

34:12going to be at the Fielder 68 tip off

34:14which starts at midnight and runs for 24

34:17hours. So, I will be doing a show on

34:20Zero Sleep after I've attended four

34:23games, probably some point in in the

34:25midm morning, but uh I believe that show

34:27will fill this time slot going forward

34:31um once the college basketball season

34:32starts. So, yeah, first day of November,

34:34we're coming in hot with college

34:35basketball and we've already started the

34:38NHL. So, if you're into hockey, uh make

34:40sure you are checking out Brian on puck

34:43time and uh with with the NHL picks.

34:46Yeah, 11-2 on the season, sir, at the

34:49NHL. Uh, number one all time in NHL net

34:52profit at the site. And I do host

34:54co-host with uh Carmine. Uh, I do want

34:58to give you a warning. If you tune in

35:00today, you'll end up with a press also.

35:02So, if you if uh if that's an account,

35:05yeah, we joke we joke around. Pres is on

35:07I think Tuesdays and Wednesdays. And uh

35:10anytime we've had a parlay without him,

35:12we've done a lot better. So, just put

35:14that way. It's early in the season. It

35:16could change.

35:18>> I guess before we hit the road here,

35:20since we have a little extra time, uh,

35:22Freeird, first of all, thank you for the

35:23donation. Thank you guys all year for

35:25donating to the show. Um, it all goes to

35:27charity, but it makes us look really

35:29good. Um, because we're we're we're

35:31getting more donations than the other

35:32show. So, we very very much appreciate

35:35the uh every comment, like, subscribe,

35:38uh, contribution to the channel,

35:39donation. Uh it all helps tremendously

35:42make sure that the show will be still be

35:44around for next year and uh every dollar

35:46of the donations to the YouTube site go

35:49uh to a charity that uh the home office

35:51is working with. So um thank you guys

35:54for that. Freeird's question.

35:56Brewers plus one and a half. Braves plus

35:58one and a half looks like I I guess in a

36:00parlay looks good. Um like Rays and

36:03White Socks yesterday. My my thoughts

36:05with that I I guess I guess like Brewers

36:10plus one and a half depending on what it

36:12is if you're going to parlay it with

36:13something

36:15kind of probably make some sense because

36:17I do think you're getting a little bit

36:18of underdog value there. As far as the

36:21Dodgers Braves game, I think I might

36:24take I think I'd probably take the minus

36:26one and a half like an alt line with the

36:28Dodgers. I think Brian, didn't you

36:30mention that during our breakdown?

36:32>> Yeah. Yeah. I I think if I'm playing

36:35that game, there's more of a chance for

36:37the Braves to blow up than the Dodgers

36:40to blow up. So, if if you are going to

36:43play the one and a half um with with the

36:47low totals, it makes it makes

36:49mathematical sense, but the way I feel

36:52the game is going to play out and you

36:54pointed it out very well. I think I

36:57would rather have had the Dodgers might

36:58want to have to be honest with you.

37:00>> Yeah. Yeah, and the other thing there

37:02too is like the Dodgers being on the

37:03road, you know, they're getting all nine

37:05of their at bats. I just I just think

37:06that even if it's like even if it's like

37:08a one- nothing game, I just think

37:10there's chances for the Dodgers to like

37:12kind of tack on and then like even right

37:15up to the ninth inning, let's say it's

37:16one let's say it's like 2-1 going into

37:19the ninth inning. I I still think the

37:21Braves are going to have to manage the

37:24game as as if they're as if they're

37:28going to lose the game. meaning they're

37:30going to need to make sure that their

37:32best bullpen arms are all available for

37:34game four. Like because this game

37:36because they won game two, this game

37:39doesn't doesn't end their season. So

37:41even if it's a 2-1 game late or

37:43something like that, I don't think

37:45you're going to see any of the Braves

37:47like top leverage relief arms, even if

37:50they're only down one run. And so like

37:52let's say if you get let's say you're

37:53getting the fifth best option out of the

37:56bullpen for the Braves and in the ninth

37:58inning, could my come up and hit a solo

38:01shot? Could anyone in the lineup just

38:03hit the ball out of the ballpark and and

38:04suddenly that minus one and a half's

38:06probably a winner? Yeah, like that that

38:09would be my concern about taking Braves

38:10plus one and a half there. So yeah, just

38:13again, who knows? They might all they

38:16might all win. All the plus one and a

38:18halfs might hit. You could get two

38:19one-run games here. wouldn't wouldn't

38:21surprise me it's the playoffs, but I I'd

38:23be concerned. I don't I don't love the

38:25the Braves have more of a chance of

38:27getting blown out in my opinion, and I

38:29think Brian agrees with that as well.

38:33>> All right, we have uh hit the end of the

38:35show. I mean, that's pretty good, Brian.

38:36We managed to do close to 40 minutes

38:38with just two games. I actually think we

38:40gave out a ton of good betting advice in

38:42this game. If you want to know what we

38:44are playing, uh you can do it at a

38:46discount today because it is $5 Tuesday

38:48at Wager Talk. all the plays up for five

38:51bucks. If you're into hockey, go grab a

38:53$5 hockey play from Brian. Uh he's been

38:56killing it on the ice to start the

38:57season. And uh yeah, we big sh big show

39:00tomorrow. F we'll be back with kind of

39:03what's probably going to be our last

39:04like sort of normal show of the year

39:07where we've got four games to to go.

39:09Well, maybe four games. Um if the

39:11Brewers win, there will only be three

39:13games, but it's a full slate tomorrow.

39:15We'll have Tokyo Brandon. we will have

39:16rescued him from traffic at this point

39:19and he will be back on the show and uh

39:21so looking forward to that 9:00 a.m.

39:23Eastern tomorrow. Uh again, good luck

39:26today. Check out the site for $5 Tuesday

39:28and we'll see you guys in the morning at

39:309:00 am. Have a great day, everybody.