The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: The Next 9/11 Will Target Your Bank Account! | Professor Jiang

0:00I think there are a lot of people who do

0:01not like what I'm saying. I am one of

0:03the most polarizing figures in the world

0:05right now. But I'm trying to prepare

0:07everyone. And what I want to explain

0:09[music] to you today, Stephen, is why

0:11the world is collapsing. Because having

0:14studied patterns of history and global

0:15supply chains, I now recognize and have

0:17a framework to predict the future. And I

0:20brought to you three, four, five

0:21predictions structured around 9/11.

0:23>> So what are your predictions? I've been

0:25dying to know. My first prediction, if

0:27there is another 911 attack, it will be

0:29an attack on the US financial

0:32infrastructure. Imagine one day you open

0:34your iPhone and you're looking to buy a

0:37coffee and all the money your bank

0:39account has been wiped out and they

0:40don't know when or how long it will take

0:42them to retrieve it. I believe that's

0:44what [music] makes Americans most

0:45vulnerable and therefore the most easily

0:47traumatized.

0:48>> What's prediction number two?

0:49>> Is that Lion Messi will become president

0:51of Argentina.

0:52>> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. And

0:53also, do you think Trump is going to

0:55have a third term? [music] Let's take a

0:56friendly ban and say $100. Trump gets a

0:57third term. There'll be a siege to New

0:59York City. Prediction three. My third

1:00prediction is that are you sure? You

1:03don't think that the US would actually

1:04do that?

1:05>> Well, I understand a lot of this is

1:08going to be extremely pessimistic, but

1:10we are living in a time of not just war,

1:14but also the regression of civilization.

1:16We've basically [music] hit the height

1:18of technological advancement. The word

1:20collapse you use there is a strong word.

1:22>> Yes. I am positive that we are seeing

1:25the collapse of civilization. All the

1:27stuffing that we have might have seen on

1:29television, it is coming to us in our

1:31lives and the world is essentially

1:34running out of time and I will paint a

1:36clear and simple picture of what is

1:38about to come. What would have to be the

1:40case for none of these sort of

1:41catastrophic things to take place.

1:42>> Well, the only that gives me hope is

1:45before this episode starts, I have a

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2:01you know, and the bigger the channel

2:02gets, the more we can invest in the

2:04guests and the production. Thank you and

2:05enjoy this episode.

2:10Professor Chang,

2:12what is front of mind for you at the

2:14moment? Your energy is giving me some

2:17things on my mind. What is that?

2:20>> I think that we are living in

2:25a time when the world is collapsing.

2:30And so what I want to explain to you

2:34today, Stephen, is how we got to the

2:37world that we are in and why it is

2:40collapsing.

2:42So first thing I want to explain to you

2:45is the um petro dollar system which is

2:48the basis for the global economy. So

2:51let's go back to the year 1945 and this

2:54is the end of World War II and the

2:56United States is dominant. The United

2:59States will manufacture

3:03goods for Europe and for Japan which

3:06were destroyed in World War II. So what

3:09the United States said is we will lend

3:12you the US dollars in order to purchase

3:16the goods that we will export to you but

3:19you have to promise to pay us back in

3:21gold. And the United States became

3:24complacent. They were spending money

3:26they shouldn't have been spending.

3:28United States went from a credit nation

3:30to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971,

3:35Richard Nixon said that the US dollar

3:39would no longer be pegged to the gold.

3:43And so the question now was if the US

3:45dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then

3:48what is the value of the US dollar? So

3:52Richard Nixon had to create demand for

3:55the US dollar. And so three things

3:58happened after the something called the

4:00Nixon shock. 1977 in shock. Okay. So the

4:04first was a creation of a petro dollar.

4:06So Saudi Arabia and other countries in

4:09the Middle East agreed to sell their oil

4:13only in US dollars. So if you want to

4:16buy oil energy, you need US dollars.

4:20Late 70s, early 80s,

4:23China said the same thing. If you want

4:26our cheap manufactured goods, you have

4:29to pay in US dollars.

4:32Mid80s was something called a pla cord

4:35where Japan agreed to take all its

4:41savings and buy US treasuries.

4:45>> So it's essentially they're buying a a

4:48promise from the US. All this is based

4:53on promises, right? The US dollar is a

4:56contract. It's a promise. China promises

5:00to give you manufactured goods and Saudi

5:03Arabia promises to give you oil. This

5:07system, the petro dollar system create

5:09the world that we live in today. So, let

5:11me explain why. All right. So, this is a

5:18semiconductor.

5:19All right? And it's a basis of all

5:21technology of all computer. And there

5:24are three critical elements in a

5:27semiconductor. Silicon,

5:30they are gallium and they are

5:34germanmanium. Okay. There are many more

5:37elements but these are the three most

5:39critical and these three together allow

5:44uh semiconductors to achieve almost

5:46impossible

5:48technology. For example, pre precision

5:51missiles, satellite communication are

5:53all based on these three elements

5:56working together.

5:59Why we have these three elements in

6:01place is because of this global system.

6:04Because

6:06silicon is mainly manufactured in China

6:11about 60 70% of the world silicon comes

6:13from China. 70% of gallium comes from

6:17China. 90% of the world's germanmanium

6:19comes from China. Now for semiconductors

6:24to work the process is this. The United

6:27States mainly in California, Nvidia or

6:32Apple, they will design very advanced

6:36semiconductor chips to power the iPhone

6:39to power video games. Then United States

6:43will send this chip design over to

6:47Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacturer

6:51of these chips.

6:54The Netherlands and Japan will create

6:56machines to print out these

6:58semiconductors. So a company in the

7:00Netherlands called ASML,

7:04they manufacture lithography machines

7:06that are worth $400 million each. Then

7:09these lethog machines and the chip

7:11design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan,

7:13but also Malaysia as well in order to

7:17manufacture these chips and then these

7:20chips are then sent to China to be put

7:23into appliances.

7:25So when you see this semiconductor,

7:28you're not just seeing a piece of metal

7:31and plastic. You're really seeing the

7:34world converging together. So I want you

7:37to remember this formula and this will

7:39help us explain how the world works.

7:40This formula is very simple.

7:42Technological progress is correlated

7:46with

7:48specialization

7:49times globalization.

7:51This is the formula. Okay. So it's very

7:55simple. All technolog technological

7:57progress is premised on more countries

8:00being able to specialize and these

8:03countries being able to trade freely

8:05with each other. And what makes this all

8:07possible is global trade that is

8:11supported by two things. The first of

8:14course is the US dollar. The second

8:16thing that's most important is is the US

8:18military hegemony.

8:20>> Hegemony meaning

8:21>> meaning there there are no pair

8:23competitor. There is no one who can

8:25challenge the United States in control

8:28of the seas.

8:29>> So you're coming now to the point of why

8:31you think because the the claim at the

8:33top was that the world is collapsing.

8:35>> Exactly. I bring this all up because we

8:38need to appreciate what technological

8:40innovation is. If techn technological

8:42innovation is specialization times

8:45globalization

8:46then we are living in a time of not just

8:50war but also the regression of

8:54civilization.

8:55So in other words my argument to you

8:57today is we've basically hit the apex

9:02the height of technological advancement.

9:07We cannot go any further because in

9:12order for technology to progress, you

9:14need greater specialization and you need

9:16greater globalization. But what we're

9:19seeing right now is this war in Iran, it

9:23will cause a chain of events that will

9:25force all nations to

9:28become much more general. Okay? So you

9:30will see a decline in specialization and

9:33they'll become much more nationalistic.

9:34They will need to create self-sufficient

9:36supply chains. So you will see a decline

9:38in globalization and therefore

9:40technology the progress will have to

9:43decline.

9:43>> The word collapse you use though is a

9:45strong word.

9:46>> Yes.

9:48>> Is that the word you meant?

9:49>> That's exactly the word I meant. We are

9:51living not through World War II. We are

9:55not living through a shifting of the

9:57global order. We are we will live

10:00through over the next 20 years the

10:02collapse of civilization itself.

10:04>> The collapse of civilization itself.

10:07>> Yes.

10:09>> Are you sure?

10:10>> I am positive that we are seeing um the

10:13collapse of civilization.

10:15>> Give me some definition around the

10:16collapse of civilization because people

10:17could infer that as oh you know the the

10:19dollar is not going to be as strong or

10:21they could say okay we're not going to

10:22innovate as much or I don't know if your

10:23prices are going to go up. But the

10:24collapse of civilization.

10:26>> Yes. So, let's go back to World War II.

10:30Okay, in World War II, if you lived in

10:33Europe or Asia, it really seemed like

10:36the end of the world. Tens of millions

10:39of people died in that war. But at the

10:43same time, you had a superpower that was

10:47emergent, the United States of America.

10:48So at the end of World War II, America

10:50was so powerful that it was able at the

10:54end of World War II to create a new

10:56world order and basically finance and

11:00defend this new world order called Pax

11:03Americana. And we are seeing the last

11:06days of Pax Americana. And then you ask

11:09yourself, well then let China emerge or

11:14maybe Russia will emerge or maybe Israel

11:17will will emerge to replace Pax

11:19Americana.

11:20And unfortunately

11:23what we know is that systems in decline,

11:27empires in decline do not go willingly.

11:30Okay. So the historical analogy I would

11:32use is the Bronze Age collapse because

11:36the Bronze Age was very similar to this

11:40period in our history when the entire

11:43world was globalized because in order to

11:45make bronze you needed both copper and

11:47tin and these places were found in

11:49different places of the world and that

11:51allowed for global integration. But

11:54because of global in integration over

11:57time you that led to massive inequality,

12:01debt and polarization.

12:03And so when the system collapsed, the

12:05entire world collapsed. So I I would

12:08argue the closest historical analogy

12:10that we have

12:13um to today is a bronze age collapse.

12:16What was life like in the Bronze Age

12:17collapse or how was it different pre-B

12:20bronze age collapse versus post bronze

12:22age collapse? So during the branch

12:25collapse what happened was

12:30there was a perfect series of crises

12:33that caused systematic collapse. Okay.

12:35The first was

12:38change in weather patterns climate

12:40changed which led to famine primarily in

12:45Europe. Okay. We have famine and people

12:47are starving. What do people do? They

12:49migrate. Okay. They migrate to areas

12:54that have food and that this this place

12:57is primarily going to be Anatolia and

13:00Egypt.

13:01These migrants

13:04overwhelm the systems of Egypt and

13:08Anatolia

13:09and this would cause a cascading effect

13:11where the entire world lost order. These

13:17migrants were called the sea peoples and

13:19they were destroying traditional

13:21hierarchies and authorities.

13:24And once that happened then the very

13:27fundamental elements of civilization

13:29disappear. So if we apply this analogy

13:33to today then I'm going to paint for you

13:35a scenario

13:37uh of what might happen. All right. So

13:39we have this war in the Middle East that

13:42is only expanding. It's bringing in more

13:45and more countries. So, as you may know,

13:50um, since we last spoke, basically all

13:53of Iran's proxies have been brought into

13:56the war. This includes the Houthis,

13:59which occupies this part of Yemen.

14:01>> So, the Houthis are a group of military

14:04that are in favor of Iran.

14:06>> The Houthies are an ethnic group in

14:10Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is

14:13divided according to tribes. The thing

14:16about the Houthies is first of all they

14:18live in the mountains. So it's almost

14:20impossible to dislodge the Houthies.

14:23Saudi Arabia be a tried for 5 years. It

14:25didn't work. The other thing about the

14:26Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people.

14:31Now they're Shia Muslim and they're

14:33Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of

14:35Muslim in the world are Sunni. about 90%

14:38of the entire global Muslim population.

14:41The Shia are about 10%. And as a result,

14:44because they're the the minority, the

14:46Shia are much more fanatical than the

14:50Sunni. And this has always been

14:51historically true. They believe in

14:53martyrdom. So in other words, uh the the

14:56Houthies will fight to the death.

14:58They're not afraid of death. Okay. And

15:01the third thing about the Houthies that

15:02we need to appreciate is they control

15:07this critical

15:09choke point called the Bab El Mandad

15:13Strait. This is this is the Red Sea. So

15:16a lot of trade has to go through the Red

15:20Sea. Now what we know is Iran has

15:23already closed off the sh of hummus

15:28and the easiest and cheapest way for

15:31Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia

15:35and South South Asia is by the sea. So

15:41Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport

15:43its oil. Okay. So that's the first group

15:47that is now involved in this war.

15:49Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, okay,

15:53which is in Lebanon right here. [snorts]

15:57And they are now fighting Israel.

15:59Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they

16:02are also very fanatical. And then you

16:04also have Iraq, the Shia militias that

16:08are basically their own independent

16:10militaries. So all four are have been

16:14brought into the war. You have Iran, you

16:16have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah,

16:19you have the Shia militia in Iraq. Why

16:23is this important? Because they span the

16:26entire Middle East. And so we are now

16:30seeing expansion of the war and over

16:33time what might happen is more and more

16:35nations have to be brought into the war

16:37to protect their own interests. How is

16:40this different from, you know, I grew up

16:42with this Iraq war

16:43>> and there was lots of conflict in the

16:44Middle East. There was always fighting

16:45going on and it's it feels like it's

16:47been a function of my my childhood is

16:49that the Middle East are always fighting

16:50in some capacity somewhere and it you

16:53know eventually there's a piece in Iraq

16:57and the war kind of stops and ISIS is

16:59decapitated or whatever and it just kind

17:01of moves around a little bit.

17:02>> Yeah, great question. But what's

17:04happening today is very different from

17:0620 2003. 2003, United States went in to

17:10get decapitate Saddam Hussein and his

17:13government. And that was easy to do

17:16because you had a government that was

17:18not very popular amongst uh the people.

17:22So, America specializes in shock and awe

17:26military tactics.

17:28The problem today is you have four

17:32different groups. You have the IRGC in

17:35Iran. You have the Houthi in Yemen. You

17:40have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the

17:43Shia militia in Iraq. They are

17:47decentralized.

17:48They are fanatical and they share a

17:52similar esquetology. They share a

17:54similar religious framework.

17:57And as a result, what we know is

18:00the United States military is not very

18:03good at fighting guerilla insurgents.

18:07We know because of what happened in

18:08Afghanistan as well as Iran. These two

18:12are what is often referred to as TW as

18:15fervor wars where the United States

18:17spent trillions of dollars over over 20

18:19years to try to squash insurgents and

18:23they failed miserably. So

18:26because these four groups are

18:28coordinating but they're decentralized.

18:31This means that this war can only expand

18:35over time. Now Saudi Arabia is feels

18:39threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi

18:42Arabia has done is most recently it's

18:44signed something called the Mecca

18:46Accords.

18:48Turkey and Pakistan. Okay. So Turkey and

18:53Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come

18:55to each other's defense. And it seems to

18:58me of these three countries, Saudi

19:00Arabia will be the first to invoke this

19:04mutual defense pact against the

19:06Houthies. So you can see a situation

19:09where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia

19:11is brought into war to try to dislodge

19:14the Houthies. But we know that the

19:17Houthies in a mountain retreat are

19:20almost invincible.

19:22So this war can only expand. And the

19:25Houthies in response what they can do is

19:28destroy the energy infrastructure of

19:30Saudi Arabia. The Houthies have

19:32ballistic missiles. They have drones.

19:35And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of

19:39gasoline ready to be blown up or lit up

19:41by the Houthies at any time.

19:44>> You know, back in the early 2000s, there

19:45was the alqaeda, there was ISIS, there

19:48was, you know, there was still Hezbollah

19:50in Hamas. So, how is how is this

19:52different? because there was lots of

19:54military militant groups.

19:55>> Great question. Okay.

19:57Why this is different is there is active

20:01coordination amongst these groups. So

20:04al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working

20:06separately. But the there are three

20:09proxies, okay? You have the Houthis, you

20:11have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have

20:13the Shia militia, they all report back

20:16to the IRGC in Iran. And here's the

20:19kicker. This is really important. Both

20:22China

20:24and Russia are supporting Iran in this

20:28conflict.

20:30China is supporting Iran through the

20:32Belone initiative. Basically

20:34transporting goods to Iran through this

20:36corridor and Russia is supporting Iran

20:40through the Caspian Sea. As a result,

20:43Iran in theory could fight this war

20:46indefinitely. Okay, that's one thing

20:49that we have to appreciate. there's a

20:51clear alliance in place to make sure

20:55that Iran and its proxies can withstand

20:59this war. The other thing that's really

21:02important for us to appreciate is like

21:04the Middle East, it is the heart and

21:08center of the petro dollar system. It

21:10takes all these barrels of oil in the

21:15GCC countries and transports them to

21:20India, Pakistan,

21:24China,

21:27Japan.

21:28Okay.

21:30And what then happens is the the East

21:34Asia takes these barrels of oil energy.

21:38Um, could you put the the mirror

21:40brothers in Japan?

21:41>> What are these little figurines you're

21:42asking me to put in Japan?

21:43>> So, this represents Japan's contribution

21:46to the global economy. So, it takes

21:48energy from the Middle East and turns

21:50them into manufactured products,

21:52consumer electronic products for the

21:53world to consume. It makes these in US

21:56dollars and China, Japan and the GCC all

22:00invest their access savings in the

22:04United States which allows United States

22:07to focus on innovation to create places

22:09like New York City. New York City is

22:10also a very specialized area because it

22:13basically is a financial center of the

22:15world. Okay. So all this is a petro

22:20dollar system. As you can see, the

22:22system is dependent on free trade. But

22:26once the oil stops flowing, then what

22:31happens is China, Japan are no longer

22:34able to make the manufactured goods they

22:37need to export

22:39and United States loses all these

22:42recycled US dollars.

22:45So the three biggest buyers of US

22:49treasuries basically the three biggest

22:52financiers of the of the US economy

22:55basically the AI bubble are Japan the

22:59GCC and China. So we will see a

23:02cascading effect of theft where maybe in

23:05a few months time the system collapses.

23:08Do you know what professor? One [snorts]

23:10of the reasons why I think it's quite

23:12hard for and I'm going to be completely

23:13honest. People can take this as they

23:14take it, but it's just me being honest.

23:16One of the reasons why it's quite hard

23:17to [snorts]

23:19believe that, you know, the world is is

23:22going to collapse and that this is going

23:24to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I

23:27was I was actually reading about the

23:28Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned

23:29it. And what I I pulled up here says,

23:31"The late Bronze Age collapse was a

23:33rapid, violent, and widespread societal

23:35breakdown that occurred in the Eastern

23:36Mediterranean between approximately

23:391,200 and 1,150 B.CE. Before the

23:42collapse, the region was heavily

23:43globalized. Major superpowers like the

23:46Egyptians, etc., etc., were deeply inter

23:48interconnected through diplomacy, royal

23:51marriages, and complex international

23:53trade networks. But within a span of

23:54just 50 years, almost every significant

23:56city in the Eastern Mediterranean was

23:59destroyed and many were never rebuilt.

24:03And there's a map which I'll throw up on

24:05the screen which shows this breakdown. I

24:09here's my honesty. As a 34 year old, I

24:12have lived a very charmed life.

24:15>> Charmed life.

24:16>> Yeah.

24:17>> As it relates to his, you know, history

24:19and the things that happened in history.

24:21So when we hear these things that you

24:23know the society will break down,

24:24there'll be civil collapse, we don't

24:26really have a reference point as like

24:28Gen Z's and millennials really our

24:31parents and their parents they have you

24:32know reference points from World War II

24:34etc in the 1940s etc but we don't really

24:36have them. So it seems all to be quite

24:38you know that can't happen to us. Yeah,

24:40you're absolutely right. And I think a

24:42lot of the issue is

24:46the world has been constructed in a way

24:48to maintain the privileges of the

24:53western populations. An example I use is

24:57um you say

24:59that we've lived a charm life. Well, if

25:02you've been if you lived in Iraq,

25:06Afghanistan, these places, you do not

25:08live a charm life. Yeah,

25:09>> because United States came and attacked

25:11you for no particular reason and they

25:14destroyed the very infrastructure of

25:17your society. Even today, Iraq and

25:20Afghanistan are engulfed in political

25:23violence and war and political

25:25assassinations. And so, you've never

25:26known if you were a child in Iraq or

25:30Afghanistan and even in Africa, you've

25:34you never known peace, stability, and

25:36prosperity. So the inequality in the

25:39world is stark and we in the west have

25:44been extremely privileged to be

25:46sheltered from a lot of the chaos in the

25:49world. In fact, the US empire is

25:51designed to ensure the populations never

25:54have to suffer the tragedy and suffering

25:58of other people. And what I'm trying to

26:00say is this US empire is breaking down

26:05and there's nothing that we can do to

26:07stop it. So all the stuffing that that

26:09we might have seen on television, it is

26:12coming to us in our lives and we need to

26:16be aware of it.

26:17>> When you say it's coming to us in our

26:19lives, it's coming to us in our lives.

26:21the same political violence, the same

26:24chaos, the same political polarization

26:27that has infested the rest of the world.

26:32Do you think war is coming to our

26:35shores? Because we now live in a post

26:37new nuclear bomb era.

26:39>> Yes.

26:39>> And that seems to have created in a

26:41weird way a bit of peace, right,

26:43>> between superpowers.

26:44>> So, I'm going to go to the screen,

26:46>> okay? And I'm going to paint you a

26:49picture of our global supply chains and

26:54what it means for global supply chains

26:56to break down using a few maps. And

27:00these maps, I hope, will paint a clear

27:04and simple picture of what it what is

27:07about to come.

27:07>> Can I ask you a questions before we go

27:08to the screen? Sure. Have you always

27:10been pessimistic about the future?

27:13>> No.

27:13>> When did you become pessimistic about

27:15the future?

27:16I became very pessimistic about the

27:19future after Brexit and the election of

27:23Donald Trump

27:26because

27:28I was an immigrant

27:30who grew up in a very poor family. My

27:33father was a dishwasher and he was a

27:35dishwasher for 30 years before we

27:36retired. We're so poor we couldn't even

27:39afford a car. We never took any

27:41indications. But I worked hard. I got

27:44into Yale University, one of the best

27:47colleges in the world. And not only

27:48that, but I went there on a full

27:49scholarship. So from my perspective, the

27:53world was perfect. It was a meritocracy.

27:56It was a place that rewarded talent and

27:58hard work. So I believed

28:01that the world was governed by reason,

28:05by logic, by science, by truth, by good

28:09people.

28:11And when Brexit and the election of

28:14Donald Trump happened, I was

28:16traumatized.

28:18Brexit was the British people turning

28:21away from globalization. The election of

28:23Donald Trump from my perspective was the

28:28American rejection of meritocracy, of

28:32reason, of truth, of of order. And when

28:36that happened, it sort of told me

28:40what I believe about the world

28:43didn't really work. And when those

28:47things happened, that forced me to

28:51reflect deeply on

28:54why the world was was breaking down. And

28:56those events led me to today. Because

28:59what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to

29:02figure out patterns of history,

29:05principles of society

29:07that allow us to better understand

29:09ourselves. And that's why I drew you

29:12this formula because traditionally we

29:15understood innovation as maybe coming

29:17from universities.

29:19And having studied history, having

29:21studied global supply chains, I now

29:23recognize that no technology just comes

29:25from specialization and globalization.

29:28And this not only is an analysis of the

29:31current world, but it also gives us a

29:34framework to predict the future, right?

29:37So if in a time of war,

29:40commercialization, globalization break

29:42down, then in theory, technology should

29:45break down as well. Okay? And that's

29:47what what what I'm trying to I'm trying

29:48to figure out how and why we are we

29:51where we are today.

29:52>> So, you wanted to draw something on the

29:54whiteboard.

29:54>> Okay. Right.

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32:00>> So this is a summary of the global

32:03supply chain network and we can see how

32:06it involves the entire world. You are

32:09not able to build semiconductors unless

32:12you have a globalized economy. So

32:15there's been a lot of talk about China

32:18controlling the elements, right? So,

32:21China manufactures about uh 70% of the

32:24world's silicon and rare earths, China

32:28controls about 70% of rare earths. What

32:30people don't appreciate is it works both

32:33ways. Okay? So, China does export a lot

32:37of silicon and rare earths, but it also

32:40needs to import a lot of helium in order

32:43to sustain its semiconductor

32:45manufacturing process. The reason why is

32:48helium cools these semiconductors in a

32:52way um to to allow it for to be

32:54manufactured. Okay. So, helium is a

32:56cooling agent. Another thing that people

32:58don't appreciate is people think that

33:00China has a monopoly on rare earths, but

33:03America in a place called Spruce Pine,

33:07Spruce Pine,

33:08North Carolina.

33:11This area has monopoly on high quality

33:15quartz. It controls about 90% of the

33:18world's high quality quarts which you

33:21need in the silicon manufacturing

33:23process as well. Okay. So if these

33:27nations start to stop trading with each

33:29each other technology would cease to

33:31progress. Now something to keep in mind

33:35is it's not just semiconductors that are

33:37dependent on the global supply chain.

33:39Food is also very dependent on the glo

33:42global supply chain. So what we're

33:44seeing is a stark contrast between the

33:47north and the south. So the north, okay,

33:52produces

33:54most of the world's fertilizer

33:58and the south, okay, primarily Africa,

34:01the Middle East and South America, they

34:04import a lot of the fertilizer. This map

34:07shows it much more clearly. Okay, so

34:09ammonia is a very important component of

34:11fertilizer. And as you can see, most of

34:13the ammonium production plants are

34:15actually in the north of the world.

34:16Canada, United States, Europe, China,

34:20Russia. [snorts] So the south, the

34:24global south is dependent on the north

34:26for food. In a time of war, when global

34:30supply chains break down, the north

34:32might lose access to fancy wireless

34:36smartphones. The south will face famine.

34:38Okay? Why is this important?

34:41because the world is rife with conflict.

34:45The main issue that we're we will face

34:48next 20 years is not oil. It's actually

34:50water. All right. So, this map that

34:54we're seeing right now is actually

34:56telling us where the next major

34:59geopolitical flash points are. So

35:02basically if you see red on the map it

35:08means this place has water scarcity

35:11issues and the red issues tell us

35:14exactly where wars will erupt. Okay. So,

35:19even the United States, if you look at

35:21the western part of the United States,

35:22they do have water scarcity issues. And

35:25actually, if you go to uh the western

35:27United States, Colorado, California,

35:29Arizona, these places, they're fighting

35:31over the Colorado River because the

35:35Colorado River is what supplies most of

35:37their water. You go to the Middle East

35:40and you know that the Middle East is

35:44almost like a dynamite ready to explode.

35:47And what this war will do is aggravate

35:49all the tensions in the Middle East.

35:52India itself is facing water shortages

35:56which brings it into conflict with

35:58China. Okay. So this one map if you can

36:00just see it, it basically tells you um

36:04where the next geopolitical flash points

36:06will be. It means a place that is most

36:08likely to go to war or have conflict or

36:11political violence with the next 20

36:13years. Okay. But also here is north uh

36:18east Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is

36:22here. Okay. So that's another major

36:24flash point. So this is what over the

36:27next 20 years where war is most likely

36:30to break out. Okay. But what's important

36:32to appreciate is once war breaks out

36:35there are third order effects

36:38um causing conflict to spread around the

36:41world. Okay. This is a really important

36:45map for us to appreciate as well. This

36:47map tells us fertility rates around the

36:50world. As you can see, Africa has the

36:54world's highest fertility rate followed

36:57by the Middle East. Okay.

37:00>> So, they're having the most children per

37:02couples.

37:02>> That's right. Why is this a problem?

37:04Because if you go back to the previous

37:05map, this area is also where there is

37:08the most geopolitical tension. And so if

37:11there are more and more children, young

37:13people being born here, they have no

37:15choice but to migrate. And where will

37:17they migrate? Probably to Europe. And

37:20you're like, well, okay, well then what

37:25Europe should do is turtle up. Europe

37:29should build walls and prevent these

37:32migrants from reaching Europe. But

37:34Europe has its own problem, which is the

37:38aging crisis. Okay. So, look at what's

37:41happening where the fastest aging

37:43populations are in fact in the most

37:47developed nations including Japan,

37:50Europe, and North America. So, if you

37:55have an aging population, you need to

37:57provide cheap health care, nursing. What

38:01What does that mean? It means you have

38:02to let in more immigrants in order to

38:04surface

38:05the aging population.

38:08And what will happen then is domestic

38:11conflict where you have more migration

38:14into western societies which brings them

38:17into conflict with the native

38:18populations and therefore it is possible

38:21you have civil war as well as political

38:24violence

38:26and even the possibility of revolution.

38:31Okay. So these maps collectively paint a

38:36very grim picture of the world that

38:40we're we're living in.

38:41>> On this page here about immigration

38:44causing civil war political violence,

38:46revolution, won't it just be the case as

38:49we're seeing that these western

38:51societies will increas

38:53right-wing political parties, which is

38:56kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing,

38:57you know, parties in the UK like reform

38:59surge. I think there was news yesterday

39:01in Germany of the the political party

39:03there. We're seeing I mean we're seeing

39:04the same in the United States as well.

39:06>> That that's a fantastic point. That's

39:08that's exactly what we're seeing. We're

39:09seeing the AFD surge in Germany. You

39:12know, MAGA being very dominant in the

39:15United States. We're seeing Vox in

39:17Spain. So, in theory, what's going to

39:20happen is these countries become much

39:22more right-wing and then they block out

39:25immigration because that that is their

39:27main policy platform. And that should

39:29stop the civil war.

39:31>> The problem is what do you do about your

39:34aging population?

39:35>> Robots.

39:36>> Exactly. Right. That's what you would

39:38think. But what we're seeing is a

39:40breakdown in global supply chains.

39:41Robots depend on copper,

39:46right? Which you get from Chile, Peru,

39:51China, Australia. These are pretty far

39:53away places from Europe and United

39:56States, right? You also need lithium

39:59which you get from the lithium triangle

40:01again pretty far away. You also need

40:05silicon which is u mainly manufactured

40:09in China. You need rare earths which

40:11again is really manufactured in China.

40:13You have this you have this huge issue

40:14where in theory you could use robots but

40:17in the but when global supply chain

40:19breaks down you have to figure out the

40:21cheapest way to resolve the labor issue

40:23and the cheapest solution is

40:26immigration. Right? People I had to say

40:28this, but people are much cheaper and

40:31much more expendable than robots.

40:36So,

40:38I know this is a bit scary. I know this

40:43is really depressing, okay? But

40:47what if the United States were able to

40:50win this war in Iran and conduct regime

40:55change? Then our problems are solved.

40:59Right now, Iran is under the control of

41:04the United States and we're back to

41:08globalization where oil is able to flow

41:11to South uh Asia to East Asia and then

41:17they manufacture goods and then recycle

41:20their profits into the economy. And with

41:24all this money, AI is able to innovate

41:27to a point where we achieve AGI and then

41:30we solve all the world's problems. Okay.

41:33So what happens next with this whole

41:36Iran situation?

41:38>> So unfortunately

41:40it has now des momentum. All right. So

41:44let me explain what is most likely to

41:46happen. Okay. So you have Iran

41:52and you are now controlling the Shamus,

41:53right? You have the Houthis and they

41:56control the Bao and Mandad Strait. You

42:00have Hespala which can threaten the Suez

42:02Canal. You have the Shia militias

42:06that can also threaten the

42:08Mediterranean. Right? From a game theory

42:11perspective,

42:13what Iran should do next is take the

42:17initiative and disrupt all global trade.

42:21And the reason why is the US empire is

42:25based on the petro dollar. It's based on

42:27global trade. When you disrupt global

42:30trade at the same time, there's no way

42:33for the United States to respond.

42:35>> How could they disrupt global trade?

42:37what they can do is start to attack

42:40randomly. Okay. So what who can do is

42:45attack Saudi Arabia?

42:47Um Iraq can um attack Israel. Iran can

42:53attack the moves. Uh Hezbollah can

42:56attack the Sewish canal. Okay? And why

42:58you do that is you're creating

43:00uncertainty and chaos in the global

43:03trade system. Why is that important?

43:06Because the global trade system is built

43:08on confidence

43:11and that's what drives insurance. Okay?

43:13So if you're an insurance company,

43:14you're like, "Oh my god, these countries

43:16are sorry, these [snorts] actors are

43:18completely out of control. The United

43:19States has lost control over the

43:21situation." You can no longer ensure

43:24global shipping. If you can't ensure

43:27global shipping, global shipping ceases

43:29to work. All right? So this is a madman

43:33theory and this is Iran's best play

43:36moving forward. And the reason why is

43:38the United States does not have the

43:41military capacity to respond to a

43:45coordinated random strike across the

43:48Middle East.

43:48>> So is this your prediction? Is this what

43:50happens next?

43:51>> I don't want to make this prediction

43:53just because there are lots of factors I

43:55do not know. Okay. So, so first of all,

43:58I don't know politically what the

44:01situation is in Iran. Certainly, the

44:03IRGC would want to do this, but there

44:06are political factions within Iran who

44:09would think this is too provocative, and

44:11it's possible the entire world would

44:13unite against Iran if Iran were to do

44:16this.

44:17>> So, what is your prediction in terms of

44:19Iran and what happens next?

44:20>> My prediction is this will only

44:23escalate. How it will escalate, I don't

44:26know. Okay. But the trump card to use a

44:30pun for Iran is to start to disrupt

44:35global trade. But United States has a

44:38response and this response is to attack

44:44Iran's critical civil infrastructure

44:47which includes dissalination plants and

44:50power plants. And this would be worse

44:53than using a nuclear weapon on Iran

44:55because without power plants, the people

44:58in Tran, a city of about 10 million

45:00people, they face starvation because a

45:02lot of this food is refrigerated.

45:05This is how the war becomes almost

45:09civilization destroying. If Iran were to

45:12completely disrupt global trade and if

45:14the United States were to destroy the

45:16power plants of Iran,

45:18>> obviously that would be horrific and uh

45:20sort of inconceivably horrifying for the

45:22people that live in Iran, the innocent

45:23people that are caught in the middle of

45:24this. You don't think that the US will

45:26actually do that though, right?

45:28>> I think the United States will be forced

45:30to do it.

45:30>> You think they'll be forced to do it?

45:31>> Yes. According to game theory, they will

45:33be forced to behave like this because

45:36we need to appreciate

45:39this formula where the more power you

45:43have, the less imagination, empathy you

45:46have. You and so the idea is you don't

45:50think killing millions of Iranians

45:53is a too heavy a price. It's all worth

45:57it if you can maintain the empire. The

46:00hubris

46:02leads you to believe that the gods favor

46:04you and you ultimately win and triumph

46:07in this great struggle.

46:10>> Don't you create a huge migration crisis

46:12where people start fleeing from Iran up

46:15into Europe because they are starving.

46:19>> Exactly. Right. Not just Iran, but

46:22Africa as well because they've lost

46:23access to cheap energy and fertilizer.

46:25So you have all this migration into

46:29Europe which would overwhelm European

46:33the European social fabric which would

46:35overwhelm the European state. But

46:39unfortunately, this has been happening

46:42at a much slower pace ever since 2014

46:45when for whatever reason the United

46:47States chose to destroy

46:51Libya and cause civil war in Syria which

46:54caused millions to migrate into Europe.

46:57And as you remember the Europeans in the

47:00generosity accepted all these migrants

47:02which is leading which has led to

47:06tremendous social friction and political

47:07tension in Europe today.

47:08>> So your prediction here if we conclude

47:10then is that the US won't win this quote

47:12unquote war in the Middle East because

47:14they can't defeat Iran and its proxies.

47:17But also your conclusion is that this is

47:19going to continue to escalate in the

47:21Middle East.

47:21>> Yes. And already what we're seeing are

47:24other actors being drawn into the war.

47:27So the so the most recent news is South

47:29Korea has authorized a naval contingent

47:32to go and try to secure the home moves.

47:34>> What would you do if you were Donald

47:36Trump?

47:39[laughter]

47:39>> I mean [gasps] um what would I do if I

47:42were Donald Trump? I would push all in.

47:45I would start attacking power plants in

47:48uh Iran because

47:51if I take any half measures,

47:54I would just look weak and I'm only

47:56going to create more problems. I would

47:58only incentivize

48:00Iran and its allies to be more

48:03provocative, to be more aggressive. So

48:06if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this

48:08situation, I would just push all in.

48:10>> You would end up killing millions of

48:12Iranians theoretically.

48:14Well, I start this war, right? Then I

48:18have to win this war because I can't

48:20lose this war. I refuse to lose this

48:22war. I mean, again, I I understand the

48:25concerns. Okay? But if you want to

48:27understand how these lead leaders think,

48:29this formula gives you

48:32the best window into into the

48:35psychology, which is because of so much

48:37power, they lose the capacity to imagine

48:40different possibilities and have empathy

48:42for the suffering of the people in the

48:44world.

48:45>> Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't

48:47they just couldn't Donald Trump just say

48:48do a big press conference where he says,

48:50"We won this war in Iran. We've

48:51destroyed their military, their naval

48:52bases. It's done. and Iran will no

48:55longer have a nuclear weapons.

48:57>> The entire petro dollar system is

49:00premised on two things. The US dollar as

49:03the world reserve currency and the aura

49:08of inevitability and invincibility of

49:10the US military.

49:11>> If they look like they are beatable,

49:14then the the US as its image is

49:17sufficiently tarnished.

49:19>> Right.

49:21What are your predictions? I've been

49:22dying to know. So I brought to you three

49:25predictions and because we are so close

49:28to the anniversary of 911 in New York

49:31City um I um structured these

49:35predictions around the anniversary and

49:37so these will be three fun but

49:40horrifying predictions. Okay. All right.

49:42So my prediction number one is there

49:45will be a siege of New York City. All

49:47right. So let me explain my logic. I was

49:50here last time and I said that Donald

49:53Trump will get a third term and he's

49:56been joking about it. He's been talking

49:58a lot about it. He's been socialing

50:02about it. And so let's imagine what

50:07happens if Trump gets a third term.

50:10Well, you would have a lot of pissed-off

50:12people, especially in the major cities

50:15of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston,

50:18Chicago, and New York City. We should

50:21probably just pause there because there

50:22is a a constitutional ban on serving

50:26three terms. The primary barrier being

50:28the 22nd amendment, which was ratified

50:31in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, um,

50:34who won four elections. It establishes a

50:36strict term limit for the presidency and

50:38the text in the 22nd amendment

50:40explicitly says no person shall be

50:42elected to the office of the president

50:43more than twice.

50:46So how could that happen? Well,

50:50let's just say there is a national

50:52emergency

50:54and the president is forced to suspend

50:57the constitution.

50:59Then he could theoretically

51:02have his third term. It's also possible

51:05that in 2028 he decides to run as the

51:08vice president and have his son Don Jr.

51:13run at the top of the ticket and then

51:15once the election is over then Don Jr.

51:19would resign and then Donald Trump would

51:22become the president and there's nothing

51:24in the constitution that prevents him

51:26from doing that. So there are two

51:28possibilities. There isn't anything in

51:30the constitution that allows the US

51:32president to suspend the constitution in

51:34a in a time of a national emergency.

51:37>> It's president. Um so for example during

51:39the American civil war Iran Lincoln was

51:42able to suspend habius corpus

51:45which is a constitutional right in the

51:47US constitution.

51:49And during World War II Franklin Delano

51:53Roosevelt also did many unconscious

51:55things. for example, interning the

51:57Japanese population uh in caps. [snorts]

52:00There's nothing the Supreme Court could

52:01do against uh this uh because a lot of

52:06US politics is convention. It's agreed

52:09upon norms. But if a US president is

52:13like, well, screw these conventions.

52:17There's nothing anyone else can do about

52:18it. All right. So let's imagine, okay,

52:22just for for the sake of this argument,

52:24Trump gets a third term. What will

52:26happen is these cities that are

52:29democratic

52:30will be an open revolt, meaning they

52:32will refuse to pay taxes to the federal

52:34government, but they will also not

52:36welcome ICE federal agents into their

52:38cities,

52:40which creates conflict between local law

52:43enforcement and federal law enforcement.

52:46And historically, if that were to happen

52:48then the president, US president usually

52:51thinks that he has responsibility to

52:53quash this insurrection, right? And so

52:57this would over time lead to the siege

53:00of New York City where may maybe federal

53:04forces along with possibly militias from

53:07other states, possibly red states that

53:10favor Trump. They would try to besiege

53:12New York City by cutting off the food

53:15supply and water supply to New York

53:16City. And this will be a conflict that

53:19could go on for years and years.

53:21>> And what year would that take place?

53:232028.

53:25It could happen right after um Trump

53:28secures his third term.

53:29>> Do you think Trump is going to have a

53:30third term?

53:32>> Um do you want to bet?

53:33>> Yeah,

53:34>> I think he'll get a third term.

53:36>> How much you want to bet?

53:36>> Let's take a friend bet and say $100.

53:39>> Do you know said this before, but I

53:41actually did have a bet with two random

53:43guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook,

53:45but I had to bet with two random guys on

53:47Facebook a couple of years ago. They

53:48told me that after Donald Trump had lost

53:51the election to Joe Biden, they told me

53:53that he was going to stay in power. And

53:55so I said, "There's no way he stays in

53:56power."

53:57>> And they said, "No, he will." So they

53:58and then they offered me a bet. They

54:00said, "£1,000 each. We bet you he's

54:02going to stay in power." They were like

54:03queuing on people. And I said, "Fine."

54:05And they actually did pay me when he he

54:07came out of power. They they transferred

54:08me $1,000 each. I gave it to charity.

54:10But so I'm more than happy to make

54:11another bet if you want to make a bet.

54:12>> Yeah, let's do it. $100. $100.

54:14>> $100. And you're betting that Trump gets

54:16a third term?

54:17>> Yes. I think he'll be in power after

54:192028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be

54:22in power after 2028.

54:23>> When's the election?

54:24>> Well, the election should be November

54:264th, 2028.

54:28But I I didn't say he would win the

54:29election. I I just said he he would get

54:30a third term.

54:31>> So, you're saying that he will refuse to

54:34leave office or find another way to

54:37remain president beyond the date of the

54:40inauguration?

54:41>> Yes. I'm saying that uh on January 21,

54:442029, Trump will still be in the White

54:46House. Okay, I'll take that bet.

54:48>> Okay,

54:48>> if everyone's clear. And please do uh

54:50remind me to cash in, lads.

54:52>> $100.

54:53>> Okay, [laughter] $100 may not be worth

54:55anything at that time, but that's $100.

54:57Okay.

54:58>> Okay.

54:58>> All right. So, again, we are just

55:01assuming

55:02for the sake of argument that Trump is

55:04in office in his third term. There will

55:06be political violence uh across United

55:09States, primarily in New York City. And

55:12if the federal authority is being

55:15challenged by a city or lo local state

55:18authority, then the president will take

55:20this very seriously and send in forces

55:22to quash this insurrection. Maybe other

55:26cities will be much more compliant. But

55:29New York City has a very charismatic

55:31mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers.

55:35You don't want to mess with New Yorkers.

55:36When they get angry, they get really,

55:38really angry. So, so this I think uh is

55:43uh very likely if Trump gets a third

55:44term, there'd be a siege in New York

55:46City.

55:46>> He would almost [snorts] be 83 years

55:48old.

55:49>> I mean, we say that, but like the amount

55:52of energy he has, right? The fact of the

55:54matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers

55:58every day. He gives a press conference

56:01almost every day. He's always on social

56:03media tweeting out something stupid. For

56:05example, he's tweeted out that, you

56:07know, all of North America is now the

56:09USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that

56:11yet. And he's talking about taking over

56:15Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I

56:18don't know where he gets his his energy,

56:20but he seems really energetic.

56:22I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed

56:24Obama.

56:25>> Michelle Obama.

56:26>> Okay. But like if you just look at the

56:27picture of Obama in 2008, he was a

56:31really handsome,

56:33really young, very vibrant man in 2008.

56:38You fast forward eight years and he came

56:40out just decrepit. Okay, he he was he

56:44had aged like at least 20 years in his

56:46office. [snorts] Donald Trump, for

56:49whatever reason,

56:51has not aged that much.

56:54hair dye and fake tan.

56:57>> He So, there's something really weird

57:00about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US

57:04journalists in Washington DC have his

57:06direct personal cell phone number and

57:09they can call him and they will talk for

57:11an hour.

57:13Like the guy is the president of the

57:15United States. And if you are just an

57:19average Washington journalist, you can

57:22call him and talk to him for for an hour

57:24a day. There are journalists who go to

57:26the White House to interview him and

57:28says like we try to get we try to like

57:30leave like an hour ago, but he he made

57:32us stay and talk to him some more. He

57:34would not let us leave. So I don't know

57:36where he gets his energy from, but he's

57:38extreme extremely energetic and he loves

57:42that attention.

57:44>> Okay. What's prediction number two?

57:46>> So again, we are approaching the

57:49anniversary of 911 and there are a lot

57:52of people who fear there will be another

57:56911 attack on the United States just

57:59because you have a lot of actors that

58:01are very angry at the United States and

58:05who may want to seek vengeance against

58:08the American people. In that case, if

58:10there is another 911 attack on the

58:13United States, I believe it will be an

58:16attack on the US financial

58:19infrastructure.

58:20Okay. So, let me explain my reasoning.

58:22What was 911? 911 was an act committed

58:26by terrorists in order to traumatize the

58:29population into self-destructive

58:31violence.

58:33Is that a fair statement?

58:34>> I don't really know. Is that was that

58:36the

58:36>> So, let's parse the statement. 911 was

58:41an attempt to traumatize the American

58:44population into selfdestructive

58:47violence. What I mean by that is you're

58:49taking the symbols of American power,

58:51which are like these airplanes

58:53>> as well as the Twin Towers. These are

58:55symbols of American power

58:56>> and the Pentagon.

58:58>> And the Pentagon and the White House and

59:01you're destroying them.

59:03And for the longest time, American

59:06people believed that these are symbols

59:09of American invisibility, our planes,

59:12our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And

59:15to see them destroyed like that would

59:17traumatize the population. In fact, it

59:19did traumatize many, many people.

59:23And the idea is you traumatize them into

59:26a self-destructive violence, which means

59:28like they want vengeance. And so what

59:30did they do? They went to the Middle

59:32East, fought against the Taliban and

59:34Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq,

59:37then this war spread to Syria, Libya,

59:40and we can say that these 20 years of

59:43these forever wars in the Middle East

59:45have been very destructive for the

59:46United States. It's caused a huge fiscal

59:49deficit. It's caused uh the American

59:52military to lose a lot of prestige. It's

59:54caused a lot of corruption in Washington

59:56DC. It's been very bad for the United

59:58States. All right. So, if you're at the

1:00:01terrorist and you look at 911, you're

1:00:02like, "Okay, well, I want to do the same

1:00:04thing, which is like I want to

1:00:06traumatize people into self-destructive

1:00:08violence. How can I do so? Well, I need

1:00:11to traumatize them, right? Me flying

1:00:15planes into the new the the new twin

1:00:18towers doesn't do that because people

1:00:19are now used to they've they've been

1:00:21normalized into this sort of violence.

1:00:25So how can I induce trauma into people?

1:00:30Well, there are different possibilities

1:00:32you can use, right? So let's do a

1:00:34thought experiment. What would happen if

1:00:38one day you open your iPhone and you're

1:00:42looking to

1:00:44buy a coffee?

1:00:46Well, you scan your iPhone and it

1:00:50doesn't read and you're like, well,

1:00:52there might be a problem with the bank.

1:00:53You call the bank. you can't get food to

1:00:54the bag. And like after hours and hours

1:00:57of frantic anxiety, you finally

1:00:59recognize that there's an attack on

1:01:03critical US financial data servers. And

1:01:06so all the money in your bank account

1:01:09has been wiped out and they don't know

1:01:11when or how long it will take them to

1:01:13retrieve it. Would you feel

1:01:17>> concern?

1:01:18I would say you would feel more than

1:01:20concern. I would say you would feel a

1:01:21lot of anger and anxiety and

1:01:24frustration.

1:01:24>> That must be hard to do. Surely taking

1:01:27out the financial infrastructure for

1:01:28everybody for a long enough period of

1:01:31time where they start to feel real world

1:01:33consequences.

1:01:33>> Would you say 911 was hard to do?

1:01:36>> Yeah,

1:01:37>> I would say so as well. I can possibly

1:01:39imagine them doing this. So there is

1:01:42certain creativity to these people and I

1:01:47would not rule that out. But I'm just

1:01:49saying if another 911 happens, it is

1:01:51possible what we'll see is the

1:01:55destruction of the US financial

1:01:58infrastructure, which would drive

1:02:00millions of people into a mad frenzy.

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1:03:16now. You said to me at the top of the

1:03:18conversation you're having difficulty

1:03:19getting back into the United States

1:03:21recently.

1:03:22>> Yes. What do you mean by that?

1:03:24>> So I think there are a lot of people who

1:03:27do not like what I'm saying. I would say

1:03:29I am one of the most polarizing figures

1:03:32in the world right now. So, uh, the

1:03:35story is that the Iran war happened in

1:03:39March and it made me famous and I was

1:03:44really afraid that this fame would annoy

1:03:48and frustrate a lot of Americans and so

1:03:51I uh decided that I should not actually

1:03:54go to United States at this point

1:03:55because it's most likely that I come

1:03:57here and I could be held in detention by

1:04:00customs. I could be deported. And so

1:04:03that time period was uh extremely um

1:04:08scary for me. And I I refused all offers

1:04:12to come to United States. There were

1:04:13quite a few people who wanted me to fly

1:04:14United States to be interviewed. So then

1:04:17what happened is over the summer the war

1:04:19started to die down. thought, okay, let

1:04:21me fly to Canada where my family is. And

1:04:24I'm in Toronto and I'm going to try to

1:04:28enter United States by ear from Toronto.

1:04:31So on August 5th, I went to to the

1:04:34Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like

1:04:367:00 in the morning because I had an

1:04:37early flight to Los Angeles. [snorts] I

1:04:40told them that I was going to go on the

1:04:41Theo Von show for and I'll be in the

1:04:43United States for 2 weeks. Uh which was

1:04:46all true. So, so when when I'm at

1:04:49customs, the immigration officer asked

1:04:52me a lot of questions, but I I handle

1:04:53all these questions pretty smoothly.

1:04:55Then he asked me, "Do you have a travel

1:04:57letter for your son?" Because my son

1:04:59Chris, who's 8 years old, he's traveling

1:05:01with me. And I'm like, "What is a travel

1:05:03letter?" And again, this this like 7:00

1:05:05in the morning, so my brain's not

1:05:06working. He's like, "Call your wife."

1:05:09Like, "Okay." So, I try to call my wife.

1:05:11My wife is in the shower. And so then

1:05:14the immigration officer says, "Okay, you

1:05:16have you have to go into secondary to be

1:05:18interrogated to make sure that your son

1:05:20Chris is traveling with you willingly."

1:05:23So we go to we go to into secondary and

1:05:25it's like 7:00 in the morning and my

1:05:26flight's at 8:30 and we're waiting for

1:05:28like an hour and I'm freaking out

1:05:31because it seems like we're we'll miss

1:05:33our flight. And during this hour I'm

1:05:35texting my wife and she's given me the

1:05:38birth certificate. She's given me all

1:05:40the materials I need to prove that this

1:05:41son that Chris is is my son. And then um

1:05:45at the very last minute we get called

1:05:46and a minute a minute I'm able to

1:05:48resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm

1:05:50going to go on the field von show and uh

1:05:53I'll be there for two weeks.

1:05:56So, I'm in the United States and I get

1:05:58contact from other podcasts to do

1:06:01interviews and I travel around the

1:06:03United States and I I forget about the

1:06:06two week promise to the um immigration

1:06:09authorities because uh I'm not sure if

1:06:11you know the law but I'm Canadian I'm

1:06:13I'm a Canadian citizen and therefore I

1:06:15don't need a visa to come United States.

1:06:17You know, if if you say I'm coming for

1:06:18two weeks but you stay a month, it's

1:06:20usually not an issue. I go back to

1:06:23Toronto and I come back to do this

1:06:24podcast. And so yesterday

1:06:28I am put in yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I

1:06:31have my travel letter. I have my son's

1:06:34birth birth certificate and I go to

1:06:36immigration officer and they still put

1:06:37me in uh secondary. But basically, I

1:06:40think what happened was

1:06:42I said certain things during my podcast

1:06:45interviews that piss off some really

1:06:48powerful people in the United States. A

1:06:52lot of things that I said were related

1:06:54to something called the clean brick

1:06:55memo, which you have. The Queen Greek

1:06:58memo was published in 1996

1:07:02and it laid out a plan for how Israel

1:07:05can become the dominant hegeimad in the

1:07:08Middle East. It's written by a study

1:07:11group and part of the study group there

1:07:13were two individuals. They were Richard

1:07:15Pearl and others five. These two would

1:07:21in the George W administration sorry

1:07:23George W. Bush administration go working

1:07:27in the Pentagon and these two along with

1:07:28Paul Wolfitz were the chief architects

1:07:31of Iraq war. So I named these people and

1:07:35I explained how this war in Iran follows

1:07:38from the clean brick memo and the goal

1:07:39is to establish Israel as the regional

1:07:41hedgeimon and I think this is what got

1:07:44me into a lot of trouble.

1:07:45>> Why do you think that got you into a lot

1:07:47of trouble?

1:07:47>> Because I'm a Canadian. when I come into

1:07:50the country, they usually don't bother

1:07:51me. And so for them to question me, I

1:07:57think it was because some top officials

1:08:01basically requested that I be put in

1:08:03secondary every time I come to the

1:08:04United States. And I I also believe this

1:08:06because I have a friend Max Bumantho who

1:08:09is a very good US journalist and he was

1:08:12in Iran covering Kam's funeral. In

1:08:16response um a social media influencer

1:08:20named Laura Loomer

1:08:23demanded his arrest. And so when

1:08:26Maxville came into the country and he is

1:08:29a US citizen by the way, his devices

1:08:31were confiscated.

1:08:34And now Max Bumo is suing the Department

1:08:37of Homeland Security for

1:08:40illegally uh confiscating his devices.

1:08:44And so I think that we live in a time

1:08:46when unfortunately the empire is in

1:08:49decline and because of hubris and

1:08:52arrogance they are trying to silence

1:08:54their critics rather than accept our

1:08:57constructive criticisms.

1:09:00>> Okay. So it's a theory.

1:09:01>> Absolutely. Right. They never told me

1:09:03why I was put in secondary, but he

1:09:06hinted at me that every time I come to

1:09:09United States, I will be put into

1:09:12secondary to make sure that I'm coming

1:09:15United States for legitimate reasons.

1:09:17Also, he hitted at me that it is

1:09:19possible that once my I94 expires in 6

1:09:22months, they will not renew it, meaning

1:09:24they will not let allow me in the

1:09:25country anymore. I hope I come back to

1:09:28United States. I I have the deepest

1:09:30admiration for the American people. I

1:09:32think that the Americans are the most

1:09:34open and generous people in the world.

1:09:36But at the same time, I do appreciate

1:09:39that we are living in very interesting

1:09:42times.

1:09:44>> Prediction three.

1:09:45>> Okay. My third prediction

1:09:47is that

1:09:49Lionel Messi will become president of

1:09:51Argentina.

1:09:53>> Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that.

1:09:54>> Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions

1:09:56that were fun and interesting for us to

1:09:59uh discuss. So why I make this

1:10:01prediction is

1:10:04that Argentina

1:10:06is working very closely with the United

1:10:08States and Israel at this moment. You

1:10:12are a British citizen, so you will

1:10:14appreciate that

1:10:16Argentina

1:10:18has recently demanded the return of the

1:10:20Faullands.

1:10:22And Donald Trump has voiced support to

1:10:27Argentina.

1:10:29So I'm asking myself, why are they so

1:10:32concerned about the Folklands?

1:10:35And not only that, but if you've been

1:10:38following the news, Hav Malay has become

1:10:41very close with Benjamin Benjamin

1:10:42Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have

1:10:45very strong relations. In fact,

1:10:48Argentina is welcoming Israeli

1:10:50investment and immigration into

1:10:54Argentina.

1:10:56And apparently if you are an Israeli

1:10:58citizen and you go into Argentina and

1:11:01again you can fact check this but from

1:11:03what I understand you have immediate

1:11:05access to their healthcare as well as

1:11:06pension which makes actually no sense

1:11:09because they're not Argentina citizens

1:11:10right so it seems very much that

1:11:13Argentina is working very close with

1:11:16Israel and the United States and the

1:11:19reason why why I think that is and

1:11:21Argentina are working very close

1:11:22together is right now there's almost a

1:11:25civil war in Israel, when Misianic Jews

1:11:29who believe this war in the Middle East

1:11:33will usher in the end times and the

1:11:34coming of the Messiah, and secular Jews

1:11:37who are like, "These people are insane."

1:11:40And so, the only way to resolve this

1:11:42conflict is by exporting secular Jews

1:11:46elsewhere. And it seems to me, um,

1:11:48Argentina is a very good place to export

1:11:51them. So, but then you're like, okay,

1:11:54how do you get the people of Argentina

1:11:57to accept this massive immigration into

1:12:02into Argentina from Israel? Because

1:12:03Israel is not very popular in Argentina.

1:12:07I think the best way is to make Lionelo

1:12:10Messi the president of Argentina and his

1:12:14popularity will be enough to let all

1:12:17these Israelis into the country. Him as

1:12:20well as the reclaiming of the Faulland

1:12:22Islands, right? These two things, you

1:12:24know, the God of Argentina becomes

1:12:27president and Argentina reclaims the

1:12:29Faullands from the British. And I'm I

1:12:32apologize to you as as a British

1:12:34citizen.

1:12:35>> It's okay. I like Missy. Um, you you

1:12:38also mentioned to me that you think

1:12:39Japan is going to go to war with China.

1:12:41Well, China is going to go to war with

1:12:42Japan.

1:12:42>> Yes.

1:12:43>> What makes you think that?

1:12:44>> Well, because every Chinese believes

1:12:46this. [laughter]

1:12:47>> Yes. So, it's the funniest thing, but

1:12:48like for the longest time, people

1:12:51believe that China will eventually

1:12:54invade Taiwan. This is what's very

1:12:56commonly accepted in the West. But if

1:13:01you actually go to China, no Chinese

1:13:03actually believes this and no Taiwanese

1:13:05actually believes this because um this

1:13:08is not the way that China actually goes

1:13:11about its foreign policy. It does not go

1:13:13and invade other countries or in its

1:13:16most recent history it has not been that

1:13:19aggressive. The last war that China

1:13:21fought was in Vietnam. This was was in

1:13:23the mid early 80s. Okay, so this is a

1:13:25long time. [gasps] But if you go to

1:13:28China today,

1:13:30everyone believes that China and Japan

1:13:34will go to war. And to appreciate this,

1:13:38you have to understand the geography of

1:13:40Southeast Asia.

1:13:41>> Should you try to throw something up on

1:13:43the screen?

1:13:43>> Yeah. Okay. So, what I want to do is use

1:13:47geography to explain why conflict

1:13:50between China and Japan is inevitable at

1:13:55this point. Okay. So you have Japan,

1:13:59okay? And you have China.

1:14:03Okay. So the first thing to appreciate

1:14:05is that these are two very different

1:14:07countries. China is a land power that is

1:14:11self-sufficient.

1:14:13Japan is a sea power that is dependent

1:14:18on resources from abroad. So

1:14:20historically, China was primarily an

1:14:23agricultural nation. Japan in order to

1:14:26survive engage in piracy. So the

1:14:28Japanese have always been pretty

1:14:30militaristic. They have a very they had

1:14:32a cyber culture for the longest time.

1:14:34They were always at war with each other.

1:14:37Um and the Japanese people are extremely

1:14:39resilient and cohesive because the

1:14:42geography of Japan is very unstable.

1:14:44There's lots of earthquakes. There's lot

1:14:46tsunamis. So they have to work together

1:14:47as a people in order to survive. This is

1:14:51important because this war in Iran is

1:14:55affecting both China and Japan. China

1:14:58will probably have to de-industrialize.

1:15:01But if Japan doesn't do anything, then

1:15:04it's possible in the next 50 years Japan

1:15:07cease to exist. Because not only is

1:15:09Japan dependent on energy and imports

1:15:12and resources from overseas, but has an

1:15:15aging population, it has the most

1:15:17elderly population in the world. So in a

1:15:21time of war, when the United States is

1:15:23no longer able to give you protection,

1:15:26Japan needs to create resource colonies.

1:15:30And historically, Southeast Asia right

1:15:32here

1:15:34has been the main resource colony of

1:15:36Japan. If it doesn't have Southeast

1:15:39Asia, the United States now becomes the

1:15:42main benefactor of Japan. And Japan

1:15:46doesn't want to be in that position

1:15:47because that's what happened in World

1:15:48War II when uh Japan got most of its

1:15:51energy from the United States. And when

1:15:52the United States embargoled Japan,

1:15:54Japan was forced to declare war on the

1:15:57United States. Okay? Okay. So, United

1:15:58States can provide Japan with all its

1:16:01energy needs, but that would make Japan

1:16:03completely subservient. So, Japan wants

1:16:06to basically access the resources of

1:16:08Southeast Asia. There's a problem

1:16:10though, and that problem is called

1:16:11Taiwan.

1:16:13Taiwan is right in the middle

1:16:17of the South China Sea. And if China and

1:16:21Taiwan were to reunify, what China

1:16:25couldn't do now is embargo Japan. I'm

1:16:28not saying China will do so, but I'm

1:16:30saying that China has the option of

1:16:32doing so. And that's and Japan sees that

1:16:35as a threat to it existence. In fact, um

1:16:38a few

1:16:39>> say embargo. What does embargo mean?

1:16:41>> Embargo means you blockade. Okay.

1:16:44>> But if they did this, wouldn't the whole

1:16:46hell would break loose? You know, Japan

1:16:48are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's

1:16:51going to get messy. It's going to

1:16:52impact. I'm not saying that China would

1:16:54embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the

1:16:56option of doing so.

1:16:57>> But you are saying that China is going

1:16:59to attack Japan.

1:17:00>> No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a

1:17:01conflict between between these two

1:17:02nations.

1:17:03>> Okay. I thought you said it was

1:17:04inevitable.

1:17:05>> Yes. So, so let me explain how how this

1:17:07would draw, how this will play out.

1:17:09Okay. So,

1:17:11Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue as

1:17:15vital to its national security interest.

1:17:16And that's what exactly what Prime

1:17:18Minister Taki said a few months ago. And

1:17:20when she made that statement, China

1:17:23overreacted. So before you had millions

1:17:26of tourists from China visiting Japan a

1:17:29year. Now most of them are not allowed

1:17:32to go to Japan.

1:17:35And it's very likely that China and

1:17:37Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan.

1:17:42Now the thing to remember is it does not

1:17:45benefit any nation here to a war because

1:17:49as you point out all chaos would break

1:17:51out. What you need to do is create

1:17:55leverage to negotiate better terms.

1:17:58Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying

1:18:00okay look we can't take on China

1:18:04directly because China is too powerful

1:18:06but what what we can do is build

1:18:09alliances to possibly challenge and if

1:18:14we have to embargo China right so what

1:18:17Japan is doing is build alliance with

1:18:18the Philippines

1:18:21and Australia

1:18:23and India

1:18:27and together these four nations even

1:18:29without the United States they could in

1:18:32theory choose to embargo China

1:18:37right what Japan needs is access to

1:18:39Southeast Asia because that will be the

1:18:42main source of its resources going into

1:18:45the future so that is the scenario being

1:18:47played out now China does not want to

1:18:51come into a conflict with Japan why

1:18:54because China is seen as the big bad

1:18:57dragon in this area and if China is seen

1:19:00as too provocative that would basically

1:19:04incentivize all of Southeast Asia to

1:19:06gang up on China. So you can see

1:19:09alliance between India, Southeast Asia,

1:19:11Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South

1:19:15Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China.

1:19:18Okay. So the way to resolve this issue

1:19:23is to use a proxy

1:19:26in order to threaten Japan in order to

1:19:30uh develop more leverage

1:19:32over Japan in negotiations,

1:19:34>> right? And that proxy of course is North

1:19:37Korea.

1:19:39So, North Korea

1:19:41has the potential to shell South Korea

1:19:45because most of the population of South

1:19:47Korea lives within 20 minutes of North

1:19:50Korea. And so, in theory, North Korea

1:19:52could flatten Soul in just a day. Okay.

1:19:55Most of North Korean artillery is

1:19:57actually by the border. What North Korea

1:20:00could also do is lobby missiles into the

1:20:03Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese.

1:20:06Okay, so this is the dynamic being

1:20:08played out where Japan through its

1:20:11proxies primarily Philippines is

1:20:14challenging Chinese naval dominance in

1:20:17the South China Sea and China will use

1:20:19North Korea as a proxy to threaten South

1:20:22Korea and Japan. Over time, as the

1:20:27United States retreats from uh the

1:20:31Asia-Pacific, this conflict between

1:20:33China and Japan will get worse and

1:20:35worse. And the reason main reason why is

1:20:39it is in the strategic best interest of

1:20:41the United States to ferment as much

1:20:43tension between China and Japan as

1:20:45possible.

1:20:46>> But it could compromise Taiwan. No,

1:20:49>> who cares?

1:20:51>> The US care about Taiwan?

1:20:52>> No, it doesn't. I thought that's who we

1:20:54get all of our semiconductors from.

1:20:56>> But what does Trump want to do? He wants

1:20:59the Taiwanese to move their

1:21:01semiconductor industry to the United

1:21:03States. And that's already happening

1:21:05where TSMC,

1:21:07the main semiconductor u company in

1:21:10Taiwan, is open a I believe it's 2020 20

1:21:14billion new factory in Arizona. So if

1:21:18there's a conflict between China and

1:21:21Japan, the the tension becomes worse and

1:21:23worse, the Taiwanese semiconductor

1:21:24industry, it would be forced to relocate

1:21:27the United States, would be in the best

1:21:29interests of the Americans.

1:21:32>> You also think that um Russia are going

1:21:35to invade the Baltics.

1:21:37>> Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and

1:21:40go into Europe. All right. Okay. But but

1:21:44is this pretty clear?

1:21:45>> Yes, it is clear.

1:21:46>> Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe

1:21:53supporting Ukraine

1:21:56in its war against Russia.

1:22:01Okay. And most of this war is actually

1:22:04happening in eastern Ukraine. And Russia

1:22:08seems to be winning a lot of territory

1:22:11in eastern Ukraine. But everybody's

1:22:14saying that Ukraine are fighting back

1:22:16really really well.

1:22:17>> The reason why is what Ukraine has

1:22:19chosen to do in these past few months

1:22:21which has which has changed the contours

1:22:23of the war is Ukraine is using drones to

1:22:26attack Russia's energy infrastructure

1:22:29>> and just hitting Russia in general is

1:22:31making the people of Russia change their

1:22:32perception.

1:22:32>> Exactly. Right. So before this conflict

1:22:35was contained to eastern Ukraine, it

1:22:39didn't affect the people of Russia. In

1:22:40fact, it really was helping the economy

1:22:43of Russia because Russia could still

1:22:45export its oil around the world. Now,

1:22:48Ukraine, what Ukraine is doing is using

1:22:50drones to attack the war refineries of

1:22:54Russia, which is causing economic pain

1:22:57on the Russian people and this is making

1:23:00uh Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay?

1:23:04So, the contour of the war has changed.

1:23:06So if you're Russia and you're looking

1:23:08at this, you think your enemy is not

1:23:11Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO

1:23:14Europe. Why? Because Ukraine the drones

1:23:18are being manufactured

1:23:21in Germany

1:23:23and the UK and other places as well. So

1:23:27in theory, Ukraine could fight this war

1:23:30to infinity because its manufacturing

1:23:33hub is in Europe. Europe is is is also

1:23:37providing Ukraine with infinite

1:23:38financing as well as intelligence. Okay.

1:23:42So, if you're Russia, you're like, "Wait

1:23:43a minute here. Over time, we can't

1:23:46possibly win this war of attrition

1:23:48because we're funding Europe and

1:23:50Europe's manufacturing

1:23:52capacity is well protected behind the

1:23:55NATO alliance." Okay. So what I need to

1:23:58do is provoke NATO and Europe into

1:24:03coming into Ukraine. Basically force

1:24:06them out of their shell shell, right?

1:24:10And so what's been happening is Germany

1:24:13and Russia have been in conflict these

1:24:16past few months. In early August,

1:24:19there's a drone attack on Libig airport.

1:24:22Okay, Libig airport.

1:24:26and the Germans blamed the Russians and

1:24:28in response the Germans closed down the

1:24:31Russ Russian consulate in Bond as well

1:24:34as remove certain Russians from uh

1:24:37Germany. Russia is retaliating by

1:24:40closing the German consulate in St.

1:24:42Petersburg and the Russian foreign

1:24:46minister S Lav have have said we are in

1:24:50a similar situation to 1941. What

1:24:53happened in 1941? the Germans invaded

1:24:54Russia. Okay, so in other words, Russia

1:24:58recognizes that if they just leave

1:25:01Europe alone and just fight this war in

1:25:03Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so

1:25:06they must force and provoke Europe into

1:25:09mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And

1:25:13one way to do that is by hitting

1:25:18critical manufacturing infrastructure

1:25:20within Europe. Do you think Russia

1:25:22Russia's next move is to attack within

1:25:25NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.?

1:25:28>> It has no choice. It It has to do this.

1:25:30>> Can't it just do a deal with Trump?

1:25:33Like, you know, they're trying to do a

1:25:34deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared

1:25:35Kushner is apparently trying to get a

1:25:36deal done between Ukraine and Russia.

1:25:37And so, if the United States, do you

1:25:42want peace between Europe and Russia, or

1:25:45do you want war between Europe and

1:25:47Russia? Well, from a gameplay

1:25:49perspective, you're better off with war.

1:25:52Why? Because if there's war, Russia

1:25:55can't sell it energy overseas.

1:25:58United States has monopoly over energy

1:26:00now, right?

1:26:00>> This causes global instability, though.

1:26:03If there's a war here, then it's going

1:26:04to impact the US in a big way.

1:26:06>> Well, then why the United States invade

1:26:08Iran, right? Because they thought it

1:26:10would be an overnight Venezuela

1:26:12situation where you decapitate the

1:26:13leadership, everyone rises up, you have

1:26:14a favorable leader in the country that

1:26:17you is subservient to you.

1:26:18>> Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how

1:26:22the empire thinks, right? We already

1:26:24used this formula, right? Yeah.

1:26:25>> Now, if we apply this formula to Europe

1:26:28situation, then the thinking is, well,

1:26:31Putin is a paper tiger. He is very

1:26:34unpopular at home. If we just force this

1:26:37war for another two months, if we

1:26:40continue to attack the energy

1:26:41infrastructure of Russia, then

1:26:42eventually people will rise up and

1:26:44overthrow Putin. Right? The same logic.

1:26:48>> So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to

1:26:51win

1:26:53or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what

1:26:54they're doing.

1:26:55>> Well, Trump personally doesn't care,

1:26:59right? Because the more war there is,

1:27:02the more the Europeans are forced to

1:27:04rely on American energy.

1:27:07>> Okay?

1:27:08>> So, if you're Putin, what you need to do

1:27:12is force the Europeans into war in

1:27:15Ukraine. Why? Because there's only

1:27:18really only one path to victory in this

1:27:20scenario.

1:27:22The path of victory is to cause

1:27:25instability

1:27:26and violence

1:27:29in Europe. Okay. The idea is if you

1:27:33force Europe to mass mobilize, the

1:27:36people would rather overthrow the

1:27:39government than agree to take up arms

1:27:41against Russia. That's a theory. Okay.

1:27:44But Russia has exactly one path to

1:27:46victory and that is to cause as much

1:27:48instability and violence as possible

1:27:50within Europe. The best way to do that

1:27:52is by forcing the Europeans to mass

1:27:55mobilize their population. Okay? But for

1:27:57that to happen, what Russia needs to do

1:28:00first is declare total war.

1:28:04What total war means is the mass

1:28:06mobilization

1:28:08of your society. So what's important for

1:28:10us to appreciate is so far Russia has

1:28:13not declared war on Ukraine. It is a

1:28:16special military operation

1:28:19which means that Russia is relying on

1:28:22volunteers to fight this war. In a time

1:28:25of total war, Russia could mobilize its

1:28:29ADA population. And we estimate there

1:28:32are at least three million

1:28:36reser in Russia ready to be called up to

1:28:40arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would

1:28:43force mass mobilization in Europe. And

1:28:46this is how the war is most likely uh

1:28:50will most likely turn out.

1:28:53I mean I guess the other thing that's I

1:28:55mean listen professor there's a sounds

1:28:58like there's a lot of conflict on the

1:28:59way

1:29:00>> there's an acceleration underway

1:29:02>> what would have to be true for us to sit

1:29:04here in 2036

1:29:06and for there not to have been a

1:29:08conflict between China and Japan for the

1:29:12uh Iran situation to have cooled off the

1:29:14Ukraine war is either you know where it

1:29:16is now or it's uh regressed the clean

1:29:20memo that's changed history.

1:29:22>> So what what are you saying spec

1:29:24specifically? What would have to be the

1:29:26case for none of these sort of

1:29:27catastrophic things to take place?

1:29:28>> Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was

1:29:31published in 1996. Now Yahoo came in

1:29:34power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we

1:29:38lived in a world of neoliberalism,

1:29:40something called Washington Census. And

1:29:42the idea is we have developed a new

1:29:46model of history. If people just traded

1:29:51with each other and consumers just

1:29:54bought goods, we would have peace

1:29:56forever. Okay, this is what we call

1:29:59neoliberalism, Washington consensus.

1:30:02And Bill Clinton

1:30:04was the main proponent

1:30:07of this idea. And in order to achieve

1:30:10this vision for global peace, what he

1:30:14did was promote the Oslo peace process

1:30:18which sought to create a two-state

1:30:19solution and bring peace in the Middle

1:30:23East. Right? The two-state solution is

1:30:24the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed

1:30:26to live side by side. And at that time

1:30:29the main thinking was

1:30:32that once peace happened in the Middle

1:30:35East once a two-state solution was

1:30:37created then they would start to trade

1:30:38with each other. Israel and Palestine be

1:30:42brought into the GCC and they would be

1:30:46part of the global supply chain and once

1:30:49prosperity comes to Israel and Palestine

1:30:52they would have no need to ever hate

1:30:56each other again. This is called the

1:30:58also peace process. Okay. And again at

1:31:00that time this was just how policymakers

1:31:03in Washington understood the world

1:31:05right? It worked in China. It worked in

1:31:08Japan. It worked in Germany. The Japan

1:31:11and Germany were these really militant

1:31:13nation states. But then we allowed them

1:31:15to trade. We allowed their consumers to

1:31:17have air conditioning SUVs and now

1:31:19they're just really peaceful people. So

1:31:21why can't we do the same thing in Israel

1:31:24and Palestine? So what is the clean

1:31:26break theory? What? What in a sentence?

1:31:29>> The clean brick theory is this.

1:31:31Netanyahu came into power and basically

1:31:34his argument is we can never ever trust

1:31:39the Arabs not to hate us. We are

1:31:42Israelis.

1:31:44We have been promised this land by God.

1:31:48And the Arabs see us as enemies. And

1:31:54whatever we do, they will always hate

1:31:56us. So screw peace, screw compromise.

1:32:00Let us become the regional hedgemon

1:32:03because that is our manifest destiny.

1:32:06That is what God told us to do. That is

1:32:08what is written in the Bible. And that's

1:32:10what we were born to do. Okay? And this

1:32:12is something called the clean brick

1:32:14memo. And the clean brick memo had three

1:32:17major pillars that have that have all

1:32:19been achieved today. Okay? The first

1:32:21pillar is stop the also peace process.

1:32:24Do not give more land to the

1:32:26Palestinians because the Palestinians

1:32:29are animals and the way to treat animals

1:32:31is by beating the crap out of them.

1:32:34Okay. Do not treat them nicely. They

1:32:36will

1:32:38um

1:32:39they will hate you.

1:32:40>> So wait, are you saying that the way to

1:32:42stop all of the pessimism that we talked

1:32:44about happening is by the clean break

1:32:47theory succeeding?

1:32:49>> No. No, no, no. What I said was in 1995

1:32:52there was already a theory in place

1:32:53called neol liberalism that offered a

1:32:55solution to the Israel Palestine issue

1:32:59that has been plaguing the Middle East

1:33:01for the past few decades. And if they

1:33:03had follow that through then we live in

1:33:05a very different time.

1:33:06>> Okay. So to to my question my question

1:33:08is and what would have to be the case

1:33:10for this all the things you've described

1:33:12the the the wars and the conflict not to

1:33:14happen.

1:33:15>> Right. What would have happened is the

1:33:17United States had pressured Israel into

1:33:21seeking peace with the Arab nations.

1:33:23>> Okay. So the US need to get Israel to be

1:33:27friends with the Arab nations.

1:33:29>> Yes. You force it because Israel simply

1:33:31dependent on you for technology, for

1:33:34financing, for arms. Israel is the

1:33:38biggest recipient of American foreign

1:33:41policy uh aid. So, just for those that

1:33:44want to know what the clean break theory

1:33:46is, it was it's called a clean break, a

1:33:49new strategy for securing the realm. It

1:33:51refers to a prominent 1996 policy

1:33:53documented um and then prepared for

1:33:56Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led

1:33:59by American neoonservative strategists.

1:34:02Um did he read this me memo?

1:34:05>> He commissioned it.

1:34:06>> He commissioned it. Okay. And the key

1:34:08objectives of the clean break are, as

1:34:10you said, the first one, abandoning land

1:34:12for peace, which advocated for moving

1:34:13away from the Oslo Accords framework,

1:34:16shifting to a posture of peace through

1:34:18strength and peace for peace without

1:34:20giving up any territory. Number two,

1:34:21regional dominance. It recommended

1:34:23transcending the Israel Palestine

1:34:24conflict by focusing on weakening

1:34:26regional adversaries, specifically

1:34:28advocating for the containment or

1:34:30removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and

1:34:32Syria, and dismantling the Iraq Syria

1:34:34Hezbollah access. And lastly, preemptive

1:34:37action. It urged Israel to abandon

1:34:39defensive containment policies in favor

1:34:41of proactive offensive strategies. And

1:34:44that's exactly what Israel is doing

1:34:45today. This is what Israel has done for

1:34:48the past 30 years. It has promoted

1:34:51regime change in Syria, in Iraq.

1:34:54>> And so the conclusion here is to stop

1:34:56this sort of conflict escalating,

1:34:58they have to reverse course with this

1:35:00strategy.

1:35:01>> The US needs to contain Israel. Yes.

1:35:04Okay.

1:35:06But what I'm arguing is it's too late

1:35:08because you you've already unleashed

1:35:10these structural forces that will

1:35:12collapse the global trade system. In

1:35:14which case, it's every nation for

1:35:17itself. I mean, you you've already

1:35:19created the conditions for Japan and

1:35:22China to go to war. You've already

1:35:24created conditions for Germany and

1:35:25Russia to go to war. It's no longer you

1:35:28can't put the gene back back in the

1:35:30bottle again.

1:35:32>> What does this mean? you know, a lot of

1:35:33mo most of us aren't involved in

1:35:34politics. So, um, we just kind of watch

1:35:36this stuff and we have to sort of figure

1:35:38out what to do with our our families and

1:35:40our lives

1:35:42in spite of this sort of craziness that

1:35:43we see in the news and the global

1:35:45conflict and all that stuff. What is the

1:35:46advice that you have for the average

1:35:48person?

1:35:49>> The best advice I can give to the

1:35:51average person is believe in God. So, I

1:35:58am a product of the meritocracy. I

1:36:00received the best education in the world

1:36:02and I feel the best education in the

1:36:06world makes you think the world is

1:36:09materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as

1:36:12a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I

1:36:16was a deeply

1:36:18angry, depressed, frustrated

1:36:22person because if God doesn't exist,

1:36:25there's no order and structure to what's

1:36:28going on and it's just complete chaos

1:36:32and there can be no hope or light in

1:36:35chaos.

1:36:37And because

1:36:39I married a wonderful woman who I think

1:36:42is really an angel, because I have like

1:36:44three beautiful children, I do believe

1:36:48there's a plan and a structure and order

1:36:52and reason to the world. And I've come

1:36:56in the past two years, and it's only

1:36:59been recent, okay? It's only been the

1:37:00past two years when I have a true belief

1:37:04in God.

1:37:05>> So, it's all going to be okay.

1:37:07Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe

1:37:12in God and you need to focus on your

1:37:17family. Then it will be all right.

1:37:20>> So don't focus on protesting in the

1:37:23streets or elections or any of those

1:37:25things.

1:37:27If you believe in God and you focus on

1:37:31your family, sometimes you're compelled

1:37:34to take action. Because I believe in

1:37:37God, I live a life following one simple

1:37:42principle, which is speak the truth. Why

1:37:46am I on your show? Why did I spend the

1:37:50past month

1:37:52um going on so many different podcasts?

1:37:54Because it's important people know the

1:37:56truth. If you really believe in God, if

1:37:59you really focus on your family, you

1:38:01have a personal and moral responsibility

1:38:04to speak the truth. If you know what's

1:38:07going to happen, then speak it. Why are

1:38:09you doing this? What good will do? It

1:38:12doesn't matter. It's just like your

1:38:14faith in God

1:38:17compels you to live the truth to and to

1:38:20speak the truth and to spread the the

1:38:22truth. So just because you believe in

1:38:25God doesn't mean okay now I believe in

1:38:27God and now I can just sit back and hide

1:38:30in my room and play computer games all

1:38:32day doesn't mean that. It means if you

1:38:34truly believe in God and you believe

1:38:35there's a plan then you have to take

1:38:37action and you have to participate in

1:38:40the world because why else would God

1:38:42create you?

1:38:44So why is God letting all of this stuff

1:38:46happen? When I look around the world I

1:38:48see lots of wars and conflict. Russia,

1:38:50Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other

1:38:51things breaking out at the moment. Why

1:38:53would God let this happen?

1:38:56>> What is the path to wisdom?

1:39:01>> Struggle, pain, failure.

1:39:03>> Yeah.

1:39:04>> Can we just have the wisdom without

1:39:05them?

1:39:06>> Well, or could you? [laughter]

1:39:09[snorts]

1:39:10>> So, we've got a lesson to learn.

1:39:11>> We have many lessons to learn. But if

1:39:13you are truly a spiritual person,

1:39:17you're thankful for this time because

1:39:21this struggle, this suffering will allow

1:39:25us to transcend ourselves.

1:39:27Where are we here to make a lot of money

1:39:30and drive fast cars? Are we here to

1:39:33learn what it means to be truly human?

1:39:36To learn what love is? To develop a

1:39:41deeper connection with God?

1:39:43I mean, I think we're here first and

1:39:47foremost to be truly human. And that

1:39:50means living a life of love, empathy,

1:39:52and imagination. And so, we go back to

1:39:55that formula where if you have too much

1:39:56wealth, you have too much fame, you have

1:39:58too much power, it's impossible for you

1:40:01to truly have imagination, empathy, and

1:40:04love.

1:40:05So, how do you correct this? Will you

1:40:07create a world of crisis? Because in a

1:40:10world of crisis, everyone, you and me,

1:40:13we're forced to look deep down and ask

1:40:14ourselves, what is truly important to

1:40:17me?

1:40:20What gives me happiness? What is meaning

1:40:22and purpose in my life? And I think the

1:40:25answer is it's my love for the people

1:40:29around me. And that's the answer that we

1:40:31will all come to. And once we come to

1:40:33this um answer, then I think that is the

1:40:36great spiritual awakening that could

1:40:37possibly redeem all of humanity.

1:40:40>> Professor, what's the most um pertinent

1:40:43thing that's front of mind for you at

1:40:44the moment that we haven't talked about?

1:40:46>> Well, I mean, we did talk about the

1:40:48coming conflict between China and Japan,

1:40:50and I worry a lot about that.

1:40:52>> What about AI? We didn't talk about that

1:40:54and that's kind of overlaid on all of

1:40:55the stories we've talked about because

1:40:56it's to do with robotics, it's energy,

1:40:58it's semiconductors, chips, it's US,

1:41:01China. Yeah. So that's a great question.

1:41:05Um and so if we go back and talk about

1:41:07global supply chains, this formula is

1:41:09very important to understand. Technology

1:41:11equals specialization times

1:41:12globalization. So in a time when global

1:41:17supply chains are breaking down in time

1:41:19of war AI cannot make that leap into

1:41:22AGI. So what will happen is

1:41:26AI will be repurposed as a control grid

1:41:31rather than AI developing the

1:41:34intelligence necessary to reduce

1:41:36scarcity to solve the most pressing

1:41:41medical problems of humanity. uh to

1:41:43solve climate change. AI will be re

1:41:46repurposed to monitor and surveil all of

1:41:51us.

1:41:52>> I think that's going to happen

1:41:52irrespective of, you know, I think

1:41:56governments are going to be increasingly

1:41:58interested in and capable of monitoring

1:42:00all of us all the time cuz we have

1:42:02cameras. We're here in New York City at

1:42:03the moment. There's cameras everywhere.

1:42:04They're just a little bit dumb. They

1:42:06don't really talk to each other.

1:42:08>> Yep. And

1:42:09>> with AI, they can all talk to each

1:42:10other. professor's walking down the

1:42:12street and he's off his way to this

1:42:13hotel and now he's in a hotel and

1:42:15>> I agree that is the most likely trend.

1:42:19But what I'm saying is all these crises

1:42:22will accelerate this trend because let's

1:42:25just say you have a siege of New York

1:42:27City. Well, Palunteer will use this

1:42:30opportunity develop um autonomous drone

1:42:32warfare that is controlled by AI.

1:42:34>> So is that your big concern with AI? Is

1:42:36it surveillance?

1:42:37>> That's not the big risk I see. The big

1:42:40risk I see is how AI can cheapen

1:42:46the human experience. How AI is almost

1:42:49dehumanizing because what people like

1:42:54Ellen Mus and Peter Theo and Soman are

1:42:56saying is computers are so much smarter

1:42:58than us. And it could be true that AI

1:43:04will eventually be able to do

1:43:06mathematics, do medical diagnostics much

1:43:10more efficiently than we are. But

1:43:12ultimately, we as humans, we're here to

1:43:14love, imagine, and have and be kind to

1:43:17other people. And that is what the human

1:43:19experience is. And if we focus too much

1:43:22on AI, that diverts and distracts us

1:43:25from our true mission, which is one of

1:43:28spiritual growth.

1:43:32Our true mission is spiritual growth.

1:43:37What do you um what gives you hope?

1:43:40Well, the only thing that gives me hope

1:43:42um

1:43:44um are my children,

1:43:47right? you met Chris, but I'm here

1:43:52because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't

1:43:55have children, first of all, I don't

1:43:57think I would be this successful because

1:43:59I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning

1:44:01in my life. But honestly, at the same

1:44:04time, I think that while children and I

1:44:06were suddenly this famous, I would

1:44:08become very corrupted very fast. I would

1:44:10just focus on the fame. I would try to

1:44:12make as much money as possible because

1:44:14while children the only purpose in life

1:44:16is competition against others, right? To

1:44:18prove that I am materally more

1:44:19successful than other people. And so I

1:44:22would just try to to uh make as much

1:44:25money as possible for myself in my 50

1:44:28minutes of fame. But now that I have

1:44:30children, I'm more much more concerned

1:44:32about building a legacy

1:44:35for them and setting a good example.

1:44:38>> Are you worried about Chris's future?

1:44:39>> I'm not. You know,

1:44:41>> I'm not all worried about his future.

1:44:43>> Why?

1:44:44>> Because my wife and I have loved him to

1:44:48the best of our ability. And the fact

1:44:51that we love him gives him the

1:44:53confidence to live his life to the

1:44:57fullest. We see every day Chris as a

1:45:00gift from God.

1:45:02>> But if the world is collapsing in your

1:45:04words, and Chris is in that world,

1:45:06>> Yeah.

1:45:06>> are you not concerned?

1:45:07>> I'm not at all concerned.

1:45:10Because we are here in order to have a

1:45:14spiritual awakening and

1:45:17all the crises they will induce deep

1:45:21reflection

1:45:22in order for us to fulfill our purpose.

1:45:25I don't know why Chris is here. When

1:45:27Chris was 2 years old, he literally told

1:45:30us, "Mom, dad, I'm from a I'm I'm from

1:45:33another world." And he named that world

1:45:35and I'm just an alien visiting you guys.

1:45:38And my wife and I, we weren't surprised.

1:45:40We're like, "We knew this." Yeah. We

1:45:42knew you were an alien. We We knew you

1:45:43came from from another world. And we

1:45:45knew that you came here to experience

1:45:49humanity for all our faults and all for

1:45:52all our problems. And we see you. We

1:45:57love you, but we will do whatever we can

1:46:00to empower you on your mission. And we

1:46:02going to try our best because ultimately

1:46:04it's your life. It's your mission. And

1:46:07we cannot ever control you. Love is

1:46:12about trust. Love is about liberation.

1:46:16Liberation from your own anxieties and

1:46:19liberation from the need to control

1:46:21others.

1:46:22Professor, we have a closing tradition

1:46:24where the last guest leaves a question

1:46:25for the next not knowing who they're

1:46:26leaving it for. The question left for

1:46:28you is, what is your biggest challenge

1:46:30and how are you working on fixing it?

1:46:34My biggest challenge is my fear, my

1:46:39doubt, my paralysis. I

1:46:43went to um the US border yesterday and

1:46:47now I'm afraid that I will never be

1:46:50allowed back in the United States after

1:46:52I I leave. I'm afraid that I might get

1:46:54banned from a lot of countries because

1:46:56all I do is talk trash about different

1:46:58countries. I've talked trash talk trash

1:47:00about China. I've talked trash about

1:47:01Canada. I've talked trash about the

1:47:03United States. If I got banned from all

1:47:04three countries, I'd be in a lot of

1:47:06trouble. And so, my constant challenge

1:47:10is to maintain my faith in God, maintain

1:47:14my faith in my family, maintain uh my

1:47:17faith in in my purpose.

1:47:19>> I hope you do. And you have a wonderful

1:47:20son. He's so He's so um

1:47:24curious is the vibe that I got from him.

1:47:27>> He's a gift from God.

1:47:29>> Very very curious. I just met him in the

1:47:30green room then and he was like he's

1:47:32playing with some Play-Doh and lots of

1:47:33toys and stuff like that and I'm not

1:47:35surprised that he is your son from the

1:47:3715 seconds I spent with him [laughter]

1:47:39cuz he's very very curious and clearly

1:47:41going to be a very smart young man. So

1:47:43congratulations. Thank you.

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