Full transcript
0:00[Music]
0:12today we're going to talk a little bit
0:14more about the fractionation of openness
0:17to
0:18experience
0:20and we've done a fair number of studies
0:23with the big five aspect scale which
0:25we've talked about a lot which enables
0:27the big five model to be differentiated
0:29down into two aspects per trait and
0:32those aspects have been useful for a
0:35variety of reasons for example when
0:38we're looking at political Behavior
0:39we've been able to determine that
0:42conservatives who are generally regarded
0:44as higher Inc conscientiousness are
0:46actually more specifically higher in
0:48orderliness there's not a lot of
0:50difference between liberals and
0:52conservatives with regards to
0:53industriousness and we've also been able
0:55to determine at least to some degree
0:57that orderliness seems to be asso with
1:00discussed
1:01sensitivity and discussed sensitivity is
1:03part of the behavioral immune system and
1:05so part of the reasons that
1:07conservatives are more inclined to want
1:09things like closed borders is because
1:11they're more concerned about maintaining
1:13the boundaries between things and the
1:15reason for that seems to be
1:17fundamentally associated with disgust
1:19and I'll talk to you a lot about that
1:21next week because once we sorted that
1:23out it really really illuminated my way
1:28of thinking about things that had
1:29happened for for example in Nazi Germany
1:31because people tend to people tend to
1:33think about like when people have been
1:36studying conservatism from a scientific
1:39perspective they've tended to assume
1:41that it's associated with fear of the
1:42outg group say and that conservatives
1:44are more fearful than liberals but that
1:46actually doesn't seem to be
1:48conservatives are not higher in trait
1:49neuroticism and that's a really tough
1:51one because if if you going to make a
1:53case that a group one group is more
1:55anxious let's say or threat sensitive
1:57than another and you don't get
1:58differences in trait n ISM then you've
2:00really got a problem wouldn't it sign be
2:03significantly different to be talking
2:04about situational fear over a political
2:07event versus trait neuroticism well yeah
2:10but the theories the theories seem to be
2:12more traitlike rather than situation
2:14yeah so so but what we have found is
2:17that that you know for a long time
2:19people thought that all of the negative
2:20emotions loaded on neuroticism and it
2:23was like the global it was the global
2:25trait for negative emotion but disgust
2:27seems to be its own peculiar thing and
2:30uh but I will talk to you more about
2:32that next week uh and but that's just an
2:36example of why differentiation at the
2:39aspect level seems useful you also pick
2:40up differences between men and women at
2:43the aspect level that aren't obvious at
2:44the trait level as well so you can think
2:47about the models as you know you have a
2:50model that operates at different levels
2:51of resolution and low resolution
2:53representations are good for one set of
2:55operations and higher resolution uh
2:58representations are good for other
3:00purposes and the purpose of course is to
3:02predict at least that's one of the
3:03primary scientific purposes and so you
3:05pick the level of analysis that gives
3:07you the most prediction and perhaps also
3:09the most utility in terms of formulating
3:11scientific theories so and so we'll
3:14concentrate a little bit more today on
3:17openness per se so openness to
3:19experience fragments into intellect and
3:22openness proper and I think the right
3:23way to think about intellect is that
3:25it's the personality instantiation of IQ
3:28roughly speaking and the reason I think
3:29that is because well first of all
3:31working memory predicts intellect quite
3:34nicely and working memory tests are very
3:36very highly correlated with G and
3:39specifically G being the first factor
3:41that you pull out of any set of IQ tests
3:43right that that's the technical
3:45definition of g you set up S sets of
3:48questions do a factor analysis and
3:50extract out the first factor which is
3:52roughly equivalent by the way to the
3:54total or to the to to the mean of the of
3:56the items if it's if there's a one
3:58factor solution it's not much different
4:00than the average so the average is
4:02actually a factor that's that that where
4:06the hypothesis is that every single item
4:08loads equally on that factor right
4:10because you're adding them all up and
4:12then dividing them by the number so it's
4:14no different than a factor analysis
4:15sometimes you'll hear people like stepen
4:17J ghoul did this when he was complaining
4:19about IQ back in the 90s he said a
4:21factor a factor analysis like a factor
4:23is just a mathematical abstraction it's
4:25like well yeah so is the average you
4:28think is the average of a set of numbers
4:30real and the answer to that question is
4:32it depends on how you define real you
4:34can use it for certain functions which
4:36is a pretty good definition of real as
4:38far as I'm concerned but when when you
4:40ask questions like that you have to
4:42Define both your terms and you do that
4:43somewhat arbitrarily
4:46anyways people with high IQs tend to
4:48think that they're smart which is and
4:50that's right and so then they tend to
4:51describe themselves as smart if you give
4:53them the opportunity to do that and then
4:55that shows up when you ask them
4:56questions about their problem solving
4:58ability and that loads mostly on
5:00intellect and so it isn't even obvious
5:02that there's any real utility in
5:05assessing intellect from the self-report
5:07perspective when you could replace that
5:09with an IQ test because the IQ test is
5:11way more accurate so but that gives you
5:15some sense you think about the whole
5:16five Factor model you know where
5:17intelligence slots it slots in
5:19underneath openness now the openness
5:22proper part of openness to experience
5:24which which I tend to think about as
5:26creativity it you can use that at least
5:29as a shorthand to sort of Aid your
5:31understanding in what it is creativity
5:33seems related to IQ in that more people
5:36with higher IQs are likely to be
5:38creative or if you take people who are
5:40noted for their creativity there's a
5:42high probability that they'll have a
5:43higher IQ but there's more to it than IQ
5:47um and and what what creativity seems to
5:50be associated with then again depends on
5:52whether or not and how you define
5:54creativity because you could Define it
5:56as the sum total of creative achiev
5:59achievements that you've made in your
6:01life which would be the actual
6:02production of say artifacts of one form
6:04or another performances or inventions or
6:07artworks or or or what have you we'll go
6:09over the dimensions in a middle in a
6:11minute or you could also Define it as
6:13the proclivity to engage in Creative
6:15thought and I think we'll start with
6:17that first so what does it mean to think
6:19creatively it's it's sort of like it's
6:22something like this you imagine
6:24that I toss you out an idea and there's
6:28some probability that when I you that
6:30idea that that will trigger off other
6:31ideas in your imagination so you could
6:34think about it as a threshold issue if
6:36you're not very creative I'll throw you
6:37an idea and hardly any other ideals will
6:39be triggered and the ones that will be
6:41triggered are going to be very closely
6:43associated with that initial idea so
6:45let's say I tossed each of you an idea
6:48and I asked you to think tell me the
6:49first thing that comes to mind okay so
6:51what we would see first is that the
6:54first thing that comes to mind for you
6:56the first thing that comes to mind in
6:58like in all likelihood would' be sharing
6:59by many of you okay so then you could
7:02think about that as a common response
7:03right and so that's a less creative
7:05response and then there'll be some
7:07things that come to mind for you that
7:08are that are so idiosyncratic that
7:10you're the only person that thinks it
7:12and no one can understand it well that
7:14that's also not exactly creative because
7:17the thing that you for something to be
7:19creative it has to be novel and useful
7:21at the same time that's sort of a rough
7:22definition creative something creative
7:25is novel and useful and obviously you
7:28know there there's a there's a c certain
7:29amount of judgment that goes along with
7:31that clearly but if it's too novel then
7:34no one else can understand it and it's
7:36unlikely to be useful so there's there's
7:38a there's a range of convenience so
7:41anyways if you want to decide if
7:42something's creative like what we would
7:44do for I could say to you uh okay in the
7:46next 3 minutes I want you to write down
7:48all the uses you can think of for a
7:51brick so okay so someone tell me a use
7:53for a
7:57bricking Windows breaking windows a
7:59pumis for your feet Yes okay what else
8:02can you use a brick for build a wall
8:05build a wall it's very small wall a wall
8:08for ants and what what else paper paper
8:14weight okay okay well so you you get the
8:17idea you're not feeling very mouthy
8:18today obviously but so so you see that
8:21so if we gathered your responses say I
8:25said you have to think of 20 items that
8:2620 things that that uh you could do with
8:28a brick then a bunch of the things that
8:31you thought would be the same and some
8:33people would come up with something
8:34different like yours was reasonably
8:35different the one about using it as a p
8:37stone for your feet someone else might
8:38have come up with that but it's it's a
8:40good creative response because it's
8:42unexpected and it you could actually do
8:44it you know so anyway so you'll get a
8:47graph of probability of response right
8:51and the more probable the less creative
8:54roughly speaking it's not the only
8:55criteria though because you also have to
8:57look at utility so if I said okay you've
8:59got three minutes to write down as many
9:01uses as you can think of for a brick I
9:03would score that in a variety of ways
9:04the first thing I would do is just
9:05figure out how many uses you generated
9:07that's called fluency and we could also
9:09do that I could just say write down as
9:11many words as you can that begin with
9:12the letter s in 3 minutes or that begin
9:14with the letter c or four-letter words
9:16that begin with a letter D you know I
9:18can I can constrain it and if I counted
9:21how many words you generated if I had an
9:23IQ measure and I had a measure of how
9:25many words you generated IQ plus the
9:28number of words that you generated at
9:29would be a better predictor of your
9:31creativity than just IQ so there's this
9:34fluency element that's and and so that's
9:36something like the rate at which you can
9:38produce say verbal ideas and one of the
9:40things we do know about um about the
9:42creativity dimension of of openness is
9:46that it is associated with fluency and
9:47it's also associated with originality
9:49and originality would be how improbable
9:54your use was compared to the uses
9:56generated by other people so so anyway
9:59so you can think of you you get thrown
10:01an idea and there's some probability
10:03that that will co-activate other ideas
10:04and if it coactivates many other ideas
10:06that's like fluency and if it
10:08co-activates ideas that are quite
10:10distant from the original idea something
10:12like that and you could you could track
10:14Distance by comparing it to to
10:17probability that other people have
10:19generated it then that's also another
10:21indication of creativity so they have to
10:22be unlikely resp many unlikely responses
10:25that are useful that's what creativity
10:27is roughly speaking and then you can
10:29fractionate it into different dimensions
10:31so that's creative thinking but then
10:33creative achievement would be the
10:35ability to take those original ideas and
10:37then actually to implement them in the
10:38world and that's obviously much more
10:40different than merely being creative and
10:42so and then what creativity is depends
10:46on which of those measurement routes
10:47that you take now I developed a
10:49questionnaire with one of my students
10:51Shelley Carson about geez it's just
10:54about 30 years ago now 20 years ago I
10:56guess called the creative achievement
10:58questionnaire and I'll show you that
11:00here and I'll show you some of the
11:02things that that are interesting about
11:04it um you know you hear very frequently
11:06people say things like everyone's
11:08creative it's like that's wrong okay
11:10it's wrong it's just as wrong as saying
11:12that everyone's extroverted first of all
11:14you have to be pretty damn smart to be
11:15creative because otherwise you're just
11:17going to get to where other people have
11:19already got and that's not creative by
11:21definition so so being fast and being
11:24out there at the front of things really
11:26makes a difference and then you also
11:27have to have these Divergent thinking
11:29cap abilities and that's part of your
11:30trait structure and creative people are
11:32really different than non-creative
11:34people you know partly because for
11:36example they're highly motivated to do
11:39creative things and to experience
11:40novelty and to and to and to chase down
11:43aesthetic experiences and to attend
11:45movies and to read fiction and to go to
11:47museums and to enjoy poetry and and and
11:50to enjoy music that's not conventional
11:52music for example these aren't trivial
11:54differences and so and so it's a real
11:57it's a real misstatement to make make
11:59the proposition that everyone's creative
12:01it's just simply not the case it's a
12:03matter of wishful thinking it's like
12:05saying that everyone's intelligent it's
12:06like well if everyone's intelligent then
12:08the the term loses all of its meaning
12:10because any term that you can apply to
12:12every member of a category AB has
12:14absolutely no meaning now that doesn't
12:17and you know the other thing you want to
12:18be thinking about here is that don't be
12:19thinking that creativity is such a good
12:21thing it's a high-risk High return
12:23strategy so if you're creative you just
12:26try this there's creative people in this
12:27room man you guys are going to have a
12:29hell of a time monetizing your
12:30creativity it's virtually impossible
12:32it's really really difficult because
12:34first of all let's say you make an
12:35original product you think the world
12:37will beat a pathway to your door if you
12:39build a better mouse trap it's like
12:40that's complete rubbish it isn't it
12:42isn't true in the least if you make a
12:45good creative product you've probably
12:47solved about 5% of your problem because
12:51then you have marketing which is
12:52insanely difficult and then you have
12:54sales and then you have customer support
12:55and then you have to build an
12:57organization and you have to if it's
12:59really novel you have to tell people
13:01what the hell the thing is you know we
13:03built this future authoring program
13:05right and we it's it's available for
13:07people online so how do you Market that
13:09no one knows what that is and that's a
13:11real problem if you write a book well
13:12then you have the problem that another
13:14million people have also written a book
13:16but if you produce something that's
13:17completely new and doesn't have a
13:19category people can't search for it
13:20online how are they going to find it so
13:23you you just have and then you have
13:24pricing problems and it's really
13:27unbelievably difficult to produce
13:29something creative and then monetize it
13:30and even worse if you're the creative
13:32person let's say you have a spectacular
13:34invention you've got no money right
13:36you've got no customers those are big
13:38problems and so maybe you go and you
13:40find a venture capitalist we start with
13:42family and friends because that's how it
13:43works you raise money for your product
13:45you raise money from your family and
13:46friends that's assuming you have family
13:48and friends that have some money and
13:50that they're going to give it to you and
13:52most people aren't in that situation so
13:54it's a terrible barrier right off the
13:55bat and then of course you're putting
13:57your family and friends at substantial
13:59Financial Risk because the probability
14:01that your stupid idea is going to make
14:02money is virtually zero even if it's a
14:04really brilliant idea and so then let's
14:07say well you get past family and friends
14:08and you get Venture Capital capitalists
14:10involved because that's often the next
14:12step or an angel investor that's there's
14:15there's steps in building a business
14:16family and friends angel investor that's
14:19some rich guy that you've happened to
14:20meet some manner some way who's who's
14:23into this sort of thing and is willing
14:24to provide you with some money to get
14:26your product off the ground well how
14:28much of your product is that person
14:30going to take well most of it most of it
14:35and then if you get a venture and no
14:36wonder because you know you don't have
14:38any money how are you going to bargain
14:40for control over your product he'll just
14:42say well do you want the money or not
14:44and if you're answer is no then he'll go
14:46and do something else with his money
14:48it's not like there's no shortage of
14:50things that you can do with your money
14:52there's million things you can do with
14:54it so you're not in a great bargaining
14:55position and then if you get Venture
14:57capitalists involved they'll take
14:58another big chunk and maybe if they're
15:00not very straight with you they'll just
15:02throw you out because maybe by that
15:04point in the company's development
15:05you're nothing but a pain in the neck
15:06because what do you know about marketing
15:08and sales and customer service and
15:10building an organization and running a
15:12business like you don't have a clue so
15:14why do they need you so even if you're
15:17successful at generating a new idea and
15:19you put it into a business the
15:21probability that you as the originator
15:23of the of the idea are going to make
15:25some money from it is very very low so
15:28don't be thinking that creativity is
15:30such a is such a something you would
15:32want to curse yourself with now you know
15:35it's not all bad because it it opens up
15:37Avenues of experience for Creative
15:39people that aren't available to people
15:40who aren't creative but it definitely is
15:42a highrisk high return strategy you know
15:45so the overwhelming probability is that
15:47you will fail but a small proportion of
15:50creative people succeed
15:53spectacularly and so it's like a lottery
15:55in some sense you're probably going to
15:57lose but if you don't lose you could wi
15:59big and that keeps a lot of creative
16:01people going but also they don't really
16:02have much choice in it because if you're
16:04a creative person you're like a a fruit
16:07tree that's that's bearing fruit so you
16:09don't really have you can suppress it
16:11but it's very bad for you you know the
16:13creative people I've worked with is if
16:14they're not creative they're miserable
16:16so they have to do it but and and you
16:20know there's real joy and pleasure in it
16:22and and and and and and psychological
16:25utility but that doesn't necessarily
16:27mean that it's an intelligent it's
16:29certainly not a conservative strategy
16:30for moving forward through life so and
16:33you know whenever I talk to people who
16:35are creative and you guys should listen
16:36to this because I know what I'm talking
16:38about if you happen to be creative if
16:40you're a songwriter or another kind of
16:42musician or an artist or or or any of
16:45the other number of things that you
16:46might be find a way to make money and
16:50then practice your craft on the side
16:52because you will starve to death
16:54otherwise now some for some of you that
16:56won't be true but it's a tiny minority
16:58your best bet is to find a job that will
17:00keep Body and Soul together and parse
17:02off some time that you can pursue your
17:04creative thing because then well as a
17:06long-term strategy medium to long-term
17:08strategy it's a better one but it's got
17:10incredibly difficult for people
17:12musicians for example it's incredibly
17:14difficult for new musicians to monetize
17:16their their craft even if they're really
17:18really good at it so it's it's well so
17:22anyway so don't be so I say well
17:23everyone's not everyone's not creative
17:25and everybody goes oh that's terrible
17:27it's like it's not so terrible it's not
17:29something it's not self-evident that you
17:30would curse someone with high levels of
17:32creativity so all right so here's how
17:35our creative achievement questionnaire
17:37Works what we did essentially was we
17:39thought up how many domains there are in
17:42which you might be creative and this is
17:45remember when you're designing a
17:46questionnaire you want to be over
17:47inclusive because the statistics will
17:49take care of it right so you can you can
17:50take a big area of of of potential you
17:54can take a large area and aim your
17:56questionnaire at it and you can do
17:58statistic itics post Hawk to see if
18:00you're covering the area if if if the
18:02things that you're measuring are nicely
18:03correlated they're this you know there's
18:05something about them that's similar if
18:07they're not correlated then maybe you're
18:08measuring two different things and you
18:10can get rid of one of them that's fine
18:12so we did start with a pretty wide range
18:14we thought okay well what domains can
18:16you be creative in Visual Arts painting
18:18and sculpture then we had experts sort
18:21of rank order levels of achievement
18:23within those domains and so if you were
18:24a painter you could zero gives you I
18:27have no training or recognized Talent in
18:28this area okay so you really want to
18:30keep an eye on the zeros all right so
18:33then I have taken lessons people have
18:35commented on my talents I have won a
18:37prize my work has been critiqued in
18:39National Publications all right so you
18:42get you get you get 0 to 7 points but
18:45you can indicate more than you know
18:47maybe that's happened to you more than
18:48once so and what happens this is
18:51interesting is that the higher you are
18:53up in this hierarchy the more likely it
18:56is that those things have happened to
18:57you more than once and that's that's
18:59another example of this weird thing
19:01called the Paro principle or prices law
19:03which is that it's sort of as good
19:06things happen to you the probability
19:08that more good things will happen
19:09increases right so because once you're
19:12famous people give you all sorts of
19:13opportunities to do other things right
19:15so your your your success doesn't go
19:17like this it goes like this z0000
19:20Skyrocket that's how it works but
19:22getting from zero to getting from zero
19:24to one if you're starting a business the
19:27hardest customer you'll ever get is your
19:28first one and then the second hardest
19:30one will be your second one it's
19:31virtually impossible to get a first
19:33Customer because they're going to say to
19:34you first of all you're going to be
19:36selling to people who are basically
19:37conservative and they're not going to be
19:39evaluate they're not going to be willing
19:41or able to evaluate whether your damn
19:43product is good for anything and so
19:45they'll say well who are your other
19:46customers and if your answer to that is
19:48well we don't have any it's like well
19:50then why they're going to be the first
19:52one no because people don't stick their
19:54necks out at all not a bit ever and so
19:57unless you're well established in the
19:59market especially if you're dealing with
20:01a big company you can just bloody well
20:02forget it it's like a three-year sales
20:04cycle anyways it's because big
20:07corporations move very very slowly and
20:09you might be able to find a small
20:10company that doesn't have much money who
20:11would be willing to use your stupid
20:13product for nothing if you're really
20:15nice to them and you can get one
20:16customer that way it's very very
20:19difficult and so you'll you'll end up
20:21you know and what do you think the
20:23royalty just out of curiosity so I've
20:25written a book it's going to be
20:26published by penguin random house and in
20:29January what do you think the royalty is
20:30for an author on a book so you make
20:32something creative you get a percentage
20:34of the sale what do you think the
20:35percentage is just out of
20:38curiosity guess s five yeah it's like 5%
20:42so think about that so that means that
20:44you make your thing and 95% of it
20:47belongs to someone else and that's if
20:48things are going quite well for you and
20:50it doesn't really matter what you
20:51manufacture or produce that's about what
20:53you can expect sales marketing
20:55distribution it eats it it eats it all
20:57up so
20:59so well anyways you need to know these
21:00things because they're not self-evident
21:02okay
21:04so seems to be working all by
21:06itself all right so let's take a look
21:09well how else can you have creative
21:10achievement well you can be a musician I
21:12have no training or recognized Talent
21:14recordings of my composition have been
21:16sold publicly that's the top end my
21:18composition has been copyrighted
21:20recorded critiqued in the local
21:21population publication I have composed
21:24an original piece of music well let's
21:26try this how many of you have composed
21:27an original piece of
21:29Music wow there's lots of creative
21:31people in here that's very impressive so
21:33there must be 10 or 11 people in here oh
21:36that's cool so how about uh your your C
21:39composition has been
21:41copyrighted how about it's been the
21:43recordings have been sold publicly and
21:46actually sold how many people two two
21:51okay well so what you can see is there's
21:52a rapid drop off in the number of people
21:54who say yes how many of you fit into
21:56category zero I have no training around
21:58recognized talent in this
22:00area yeah okay okay zero is the median
22:04score on all of these median is the
22:06score that's the most likely for people
22:08to have right it's different than the
22:09mean median score is zero so what's the
22:12median score in the entire creative
22:13achievement question ER zero you you add
22:17up all over all 13 domains the most
22:20typical score is zero so that's how
22:23creative people are they're zero
22:26creative not at all yes it's not even
22:28necessarily that everybody has a certain
22:31degree of creativity but for the most
22:34part most are not really creative at all
22:37well the thing is you could say that
22:39people have people all people are
22:41creative and that all people can
22:42generate ideas but the issue isn't
22:44whether or not you can generate ideas
22:46it's whether or not you can generate
22:47ideas that are different from the ideas
22:48that other people generate that's the
22:50critical issue because mean it depends
22:53on how you define it you could well the
22:55novelty is a huge part of it but that's
22:57that sort of built into the definition
22:59of creative it has to be novel and
23:00useful and if your idea that you
23:02generate is the same as the idea that a
23:04bunch of other people have it's not it's
23:06an idea fair enough and if you define
23:08creativity that way then everyone's
23:10creative but it's a foolish way of
23:11defining creativity because everyone
23:13does it and and we know that there has
23:16to be something novel about creativity
23:18creativity is the ability to create um
23:21novel and useful ideas that say um these
23:25categories all seem to be artistic as
23:26well as requiring um specific
23:28non-creative skills for example music
23:31and and dance require kind of mechanical
23:34motor skills yeah um are there ways to
23:38be creative outside of the artistic
23:39domain well let's go through the rest of
23:41the domains because we did include
23:43domains that aren't that aren't artistic
23:45and yes there are engineering is a good
23:47example of that or writing non-fiction
23:50that those things tend to tilt more in
23:52in the intellect Direction but I'm
23:54concentrating most particularly here on
23:56the sort of creativity that would be a
23:57soap associated with openness so yeah
24:01okay so dance well it's it's roughly the
24:04same as music so we won't we won't move
24:05forward into that architectural design
24:08my architectural design my architectural
24:11design has been recognized in the
24:12National publication creative writing my
24:14work has been reviewed in National
24:16Publications million books sold last
24:18year 250 of them sold more than 100,000
24:21copies right so that's another that's
24:24that's another example of high risk High
24:26return so probably you won't a book if
24:29you write a book probably no one will
24:30publish it if you publish it almost
24:33certainly no one will buy it so you see
24:36you see what I mean there there's
24:37exclusion the exclusion criteria there
24:39are so they're so thoroughly they're so
24:42difficult because it's very difficult to
24:44write a book even a bad one you have to
24:46work a long time to write a bad book and
24:48then your book has to be pretty damn
24:50good before you're going to get it
24:52published and and you also have to know
24:54about know how to go about getting it
24:56published that's also you don't send a
24:57book to a publisher by the way they
24:59don't want your stupid book they want a
25:02summary of the book they want an outline
25:04of the book they want three chapters of
25:06the book they want to know who the hell
25:08you are and why anyone should listen to
25:09you they want to know what other books
25:12your book is like and most importantly
25:14perhaps they want to know where it would
25:16sit in a bookshelf in a bookstore and
25:18the reason for that is that and I have
25:21trouble this is trouble with the books
25:22that I write is no one knows where to
25:24put them that's a big problem because
25:26then the marketing people don't know how
25:27to Market them and maybe that's because
25:28they're more creative than usual it
25:30doesn't matter if there isn't a place
25:31that you can put the book where people
25:33can find it then you're not going to
25:35publish it and even if you do you can't
25:36sell it because no one can find it so
25:38you just think about the difficulties in
25:40being a successful author you're not
25:42going to write a book it's too hard
25:44there's no damn way you're going to get
25:45it published and if you do it probably
25:46won't be a very good publisher then they
25:48have to do a really good job of selling
25:50it and marketing it then you have to
25:51enter the the the market at the right
25:54time right and then you have to be
25:56reviewed by the right people and then it
25:58has be put in the right places it's like
26:00most what happens is your book will go
26:02out for a week no one will buy it and
26:03it'll disappear and that's if you've
26:05done
26:0699.99% of things right so okay creative
26:11writing our humor uh my humor has been
26:14recognized in a national publication
26:16that's the top end I've written a joke
26:17or cartoon that has been published I've
26:19written jokes for other people I've
26:21worked as a professional comedian
26:22inventions I regularly find novel uses
26:25for household objects I've built a
26:27prototype of one of my design inventions
26:29I've sold one of my inventions to people
26:31I know has anyone in here built a
26:32prototype of a designed
26:36invention no one okay um has anyone in
26:41here created original software for a
26:44computer one two three people yes three
26:48people how about um I've sketched out an
26:51invention and worked on its design flaws
26:53how many
26:54people so maybe two or three yeah I mean
26:57if this this was an engineering class
26:59and all in all likelihood there would be
27:00more people in that category but that
27:02this is more in the domain it's not the
27:04exactly The Artsy end of the creativity
27:06distribution it's more on the ideas and
27:08and mechanical end of it and and and
27:11that's a reasonable way of thinking
27:12about it I would say
27:14so um scientific discovery I do not have
27:17training or recognized ability in this
27:19field I've received a scholarship based
27:21on my work in science or medicine how
27:23many people have received a scholarship
27:24based in their work on science and
27:26medicine
27:28okay nobody so we don't have anybody
27:30that goes up that high I've won a prize
27:31at a science fair other local
27:33competition anybody
27:35there yes there's maybe two or three
27:37four people there so that means we've
27:39got four people in a class of about 150
27:42who hit the um third the second level of
27:46scientific discovery anybody received a
27:48grant to pursue their work in science
27:49and medicine it's highly unlikely you
27:51guys are mostly too young to have had
27:53that happen to you okay so theater and
27:56film um anybody who's how many people
27:59have performed in theater or film oh
28:02yeah you're an nsy Bunch so my acting
28:05abilities have been recognized in local
28:06publication how many people for that
28:09one that's it anybody higher than that I
28:11have directed or produced a theater or
28:13Film Production one
28:16two um I've been paid there's a good one
28:19I have been paid to one two two okay um
28:24my theatrical work has I've been paid to
28:26direct a theater film prod production ha
28:29got you there so you've done that what I
28:32used to do hey congratulations you're
28:35way the hell up on the list right right
28:38right right hard to monetize how many
28:40films did you make I've made four you
28:43made four did you make any money yeah
28:45for a long time oh you did well
28:46congratulations I sold lesbian films and
28:49the time was right yeah yeah yeah well
28:52that's that's but then piracy happened
28:54so so hard so for a while like there was
28:56no Canadian filmmakers that would do my
28:59product and then all of a sudden now
29:02there is so like a lot more clearness
29:04and then also piracy got really bad
29:06right yeah well that's one of the big
29:07problems with anything that can be
29:08distributed digitally it's like timing
29:10is everything yeah for yeah yeah right
29:14right timing is everything and and
29:16that's it's
29:17actually well that's that's another one
29:19of the terrible cut offs is that not
29:21only do you have to be right and have
29:23yourself together and produce the proper
29:24thing but the market has to open at
29:26exactly that moment so that you can walk
29:27through there has to be a demand so
29:29people won't buy anything that they
29:31don't have a a crying need for because
29:33they have priorities say just imagine
29:35everybody has 10 priorities and 10
29:37number 10 is important but no one ever
29:38does it and number eight is important
29:40but no one ever does it and so you have
29:42to go talk to someone to buy what you
29:44have and that has to be priority one or
29:46two for them because they'll say oh
29:47that's good we already need it but it's
29:49priority eight it's like forget it
29:50they'll never buy your thing because
29:51they never get to Priority eight on
29:53their list of 10 priorities they only
29:54get down to like priority four so it's
29:57and then the other thing that will
29:58happen too is if you go out try to sell
29:59your product you won't know who to talk
30:01to and you'll end up spending 95% of
30:03your time this is especially true in
30:05companies with the people who will talk
30:07to you right obviously but those aren't
30:10the people who ever make any decisions
30:11so they'll tell you all sorts of good
30:12things about your product and how
30:14interested they are but they'll never
30:15buy it because they can't make make
30:17decisions and you won't be able to get
30:19to the people who make decisions because
30:20other people who know how to do that
30:22have already got there and that's not
30:24you so that's very difficult as well
30:26culinary arts
30:28my recipes have been published
30:29nationally anyone how about um I often
30:33experiment with re this is purposeful
30:36experimentation right not accidental
30:38experimentation yeah all right all right
30:40my recipes have been published in local
30:42cookbook
30:43anyone no okay okay well you get the you
30:46get the point right you see you see how
30:48this works it's just well here are ways
30:49you can be creative and here are strata
30:52of accomplishment within those ways and
30:53so then the question is what does it
30:55look like yes probably a bit updated
30:57with the book should be like how many
30:59views did my blog yes yes fair enough
31:02and and and this probably needs to be
31:04updated to to reflect that so so there's
31:08there's the distribution of scores now
31:10that's dismal that's a dismal thing to
31:11look at you have to understand that why
31:14look at this zero right the median
31:18person has not done anything creative
31:20ever in their life with anything on any
31:22Dimension right it's really important to
31:25know that and then you have these
31:26horrible people out here
31:29right they do everything they do
31:31everything price is law here's Price's
31:33law this is something to hammer into
31:35your heart the square root of the number
31:37of people in a domain do 50% of the
31:40work okay so let's let's go through that
31:42you have 10 employees three of them do
31:44half the work makes sense that's
31:46reasonable you have 100 employees 10 of
31:49them do half the work that's problem so
31:52the other 90% are doing the other half
31:55who cares about them you have 10,000
31:56employees a hundred of them do half the
31:59work right so here's a here's a nasty
32:01little law as your company grows
32:05incompetence grows in exponentially and
32:08competence grows
32:09linearly got it right because with 10
32:12it's three who are doing half the work
32:13but at 10,000 it's 100 that are doing
32:15half the work so 99,900 of your
32:18employees are doing as much as the best
32:20100 you might not even know who the best
32:22100 are but probably they know and maybe
32:24their peers know too and so one of the
32:27things that's really interesting when
32:28big companies start to shake which means
32:30maybe they've had a bad quarter or two
32:31bad quarters and the stock price starts
32:33to tip down and the people the hot
32:36people who have options are not very
32:37happy about that and maybe they start to
32:39announce layoffs all the hundred people
32:41who have opportunities leave and they're
32:43the ones who were doing half the work so
32:45boy that puts your company in a pretty
32:46rough situation because now you've got
32:48the 9900 people left over who were only
32:51doing half the work and the next time
32:53you announce layoffs the next most
32:55productive hundred leave and so then
32:57you're left with no nobody who's
32:58productive had a massive overhead
33:01payroll prices law you can look that up
33:03doola price doola price is a guy who was
33:06looking at scientific productivity and
33:08one of the things he found was when he
33:10was looking at PhD students is that the
33:12median number of Publications for a PhD
33:15graduate when he did his work which was
33:17in the early 60s was one okay half as
33:21many had two half as many as that had
33:23three half as many as that had four it's
33:25a real step down and one of the cories
33:27of that is that there's a certain number
33:29of people who are hyperproductive and
33:31that's these people out
33:32here and if you were graphing the
33:35distribution let's say you graphed how
33:37many people in a population of $300 had
33:39$10,000 in a savings account it would
33:41look very much like this some of them
33:43would
33:44have some of them some of them would
33:47most people would have like no savings
33:48whatsoever the median person would have
33:51no savings whatsoever and then you go up
33:52here where the 1% is they have all the
33:54money but the thing you want to
33:56understand about that 1% issue that you
33:58always hear about is that it applies in
34:00every single realm where there's
34:03difference in Creative production every
34:05realm doesn't matter number of Records
34:07produced number of records sold number
34:09of compositions written so here here's
34:11here's an example five composers produce
34:15the music that occupies 50% of the
34:17classical rep repertoire right Bach
34:20Beethoven brahs
34:22chaikovsky who's Mozart that's right
34:24those five okay so here's something cool
34:26so you take all the music those people
34:28wrote 5% of the music all those people
34:31wrote occupies 50% of the music that of
34:34their writing that's played so not only
34:37do almost all the composers never get a
34:40listen but even among the composers who
34:42do get a listen almost none of their
34:43music ever gets played so so then that's
34:47that's another example of this price is
34:49law scaling so and it applies to all
34:51sorts of things like number of hockey
34:52goals scored is also distributed this
34:54way number of basketball basketball B
34:58basketballs successfully put through the
35:00hoop follows the same distribution uh
35:02size of cities follows the same
35:04distribution it's a weird it's a weird
35:07law and you you can think about it in
35:09part uh why does this happen well
35:12imagine what happens when you play
35:14Monopoly what happens everybody has the
35:16same amount of money to begin with right
35:19so then you start playing it's basically
35:21a random game well some people start to
35:23win a bit and some people start to lose
35:25a bit and then if you win the
35:26probability that you'll keep winning
35:28starts to increase and if you lose your
35:31vulnerability increases as you lose and
35:33then maybe you've got say six people
35:34playing Monopoly soon one person has
35:36zero what happens when they have
35:39zero they're out of the game so zero is
35:41a weird number because when you hit zero
35:43you're out of the game so so then if you
35:46keep playing people start to stack up at
35:48zero right what happens at the end of
35:50the game one person has all the property
35:53and all the money and everyone else has
35:55none right that that's what happens if
35:57you play an iterated trading game to its
35:59final conclusion and that's part of the
36:02the law in a sense that's underlying
36:04this kind of distribution so it's it's
36:06really it's it's it's not a consequence
36:09necessarily of structural inequality
36:10it's built into the system at a deeper
36:12level than that so you know people talk
36:14about all the time about how unfair it
36:16is that the 1% of the population has the
36:18vast amount of the money and 1% of the
36:211% has most of that money and 1% of the
36:231% of the 1% has most of that money but
36:26it is a it's a it's an inevitable
36:29conclusion of iterated trading games and
36:31we don't know how to fight it we don't
36:33know how to take from the people who
36:36have and move it to the bottom without
36:38it instantly moving back up to the top
36:40different people maybe but still back up
36:42to the top because even the 1% churns a
36:45lot like I think you have a 10% chance
36:48if I remember correctly you have a 10%
36:50chance of being in the top 1% for at
36:52least one year of your life and a 40%
36:56chance of being in the top 10 % for at
36:58least one year in your life that's in
36:59Canada and the US it's less so in Europe
37:02so there's a fair bit of churning at the
37:04top end it's not the same people all the
37:06time who have the money but it is a tiny
37:08fraction of the people all the time who
37:10have all the money so back to your
37:12example that the company that you know
37:14has a couple bad quarters and lays off
37:17some people the top end Le do the people
37:20inside redistribute to recreate the same
37:24not
37:25usually I mean they do but it's a 10 Ed
37:29because the people I mean if you
37:32reshuffle the entire company and put
37:34everywhere somewhere else there's some
37:35probability that some of those people
37:36would rise to the top that weren't at
37:38the top before but in that company that
37:40that isn't generally what happens people
37:42get stuck in their Niche and they don't
37:44move okay so yeah this is you you wonder
37:48sometimes well how can companies die so
37:50quickly well they go they go into a
37:51death spiral that's almost impossible
37:53for them to get out of so and it happen
37:56can happen extraordinarily quickly this
37:57is why you know the typical Fortune 500
37:59company only lasts 30 years that's it
38:02it's not that easy for these bam moths
38:04to continue existence across time so and
38:07it's because it's really easy for
38:08something to die it's very unlikely that
38:10it will be built it's very unlikely that
38:12it will be successful and once
38:14successful it's very unlikely that it
38:16will continue to duplicate its success
38:17because the underlying landscape shifts
38:20on it and it doesn't know where to go
38:22and that's also partly because it's not
38:24that easy to integrate creative people
38:26into your company
38:27right you certainly don't want them at
38:29the bottom because they're supposed to
38:30be people who are doing what they're
38:31told to do so you filter out a lot of
38:34them at the bottom and then you need
38:35them at the top but they've already been
38:36filtered out and also creative people
38:38are Troublesome to work with because
38:40they're always how do you evaluate a
38:43creative person you you almost can't by
38:46definition because they keep coming up
38:48with new things and you don't have a
38:49good evaluative strategy for a new thing
38:52it wouldn't be new if you had a good
38:53evaluative strategy for it right it
38:55would have to be the member of a class
38:57that you've already encountered
38:58substantially so anyway so the take-home
39:00lesson from this
39:02is
39:04zero right right and then that's like
39:07that's like a graph of of money monetary
39:09distribution as well and the thing the
39:11problem with being at zero is very
39:13difficult to get out of zero this is
39:15also why people get stuck in poverty you
39:17know you can't get a bank account if
39:18you're if you don't have any money right
39:21you there's a bunch of things that start
39:23to move against you when you're at zero
39:25that you can't shake it's very difficult
39:27to get out of the to get out of the the
39:29the the the pit here because zero is a
39:32kind of
39:34pit okay
39:36so now we've got the creative
39:38achievement questionnaire and we're
39:39going to take your score and your score
39:41is summed across all the categories and
39:43and and all the exemplars of the
39:45categories that you've chosen so then
39:47the question is well can you predict
39:49creative achievement and and this is
39:52this is this is how we did it this was
39:54construct validation the first thing we
39:55wanted to know was well was the creative
39:57achievement questionnaire actually
39:59associated with something that you might
40:00regard as creativity okay so we we got a
40:04a number of of of of students to come in
40:07and we gave them a collage kit and so
40:10then everybody got exactly the same kit
40:12and then we had the make a collage out
40:13of the collage kit then we have five
40:15artists rate the collage for quality and
40:18then we averaged across the ratings now
40:20the first thing you would do if you did
40:22that is because you would might think
40:23well can artists actually come up with
40:26an a a a a measure of how creative a
40:28collage is and the answer to that is
40:30actually technical if all say you guys
40:33are the panel if all of you identify the
40:36same collages as of high quality and the
40:38same ones as of low quality then we can
40:40assume that there's something about your
40:42judgment that's like independent of your
40:45idiosyncrasies we could say well there
40:46is a judgment that emerges as a
40:48consensus across artists and the first
40:50thing we found was that there was there
40:53there was quite a high correlation
40:55between each artist's Jud judement of
40:58the quality of the collages I can't
40:59remember what the interr reliability was
41:01but it was something like8 it was really
41:03high so it was clear that trained
41:05artists could make reliable judgments
41:08about the quality of collages because
41:09you had to check that out first because
41:12if if they're all over the place you got
41:13no measure right it's like everyone's
41:14using a different ruler it's got no
41:16measure so they have to be using the
41:18same ruler well we found that the
41:20correlation between the creative
41:22evaluation of collages and the total caq
41:25was 0.59 which is mindboggling I I told
41:28you last time that under 5% of published
41:31social studies social science studies
41:33have an
41:35R uh demonstrate a a correlation
41:38coefficient of an effect size greater
41:40than 0.5 this is 6 and if you if you
41:44square it 0 5^ squ is 25% of the
41:46variance 6 squ is 36% of the variance 6
41:49is a lot more than 0.5 and0 five is
41:52unheard of and so the fact that you
41:54could estimate someone's lifetime creat
41:57of achievement by having them do a
41:59collage that four artists uh rate was an
42:02indication that there really is
42:03something real at the bottom of it right
42:05because that's like the definition of
42:06real um the creative personality scale
42:09you you Circle adjectives that are
42:11associated with creativity from a very
42:13large list of adjectives that worked
42:15pretty well Goldberg's adjective markers
42:17that's another big five variant that was
42:19correlated at about 0. 51 it doesn't
42:21measure openness to experience it just
42:23measures intellect um but be that as an
42:27May it's still an uh personality marker
42:29of of of trade openness it was
42:31correlated at 0.51 the neop openness was
42:35correlated at 33 and then we used the
42:37Divergent thinking tests and I told you
42:39about those already it's how many uses
42:41can you think of for a brick for example
42:44and so those are scored according to
42:45fluency how many answers you provide and
42:47then also originality how many unique
42:49useful answers do you provide and that
42:51was nicely correlated as well overall
42:54correlation of 047 and then fluency . 38
42:57originality 46 and flexibility 37 so so
43:02what does that mean well the creative
43:04achievement
43:05questionnaire indexes lifetime creative
43:08achievement in a way that's powerfully
43:09associated with actual creative
43:11production of a single item plus
43:13creative cre creativity as it's indexed
43:16by personality markers um the caq is
43:18also potently predicted by IQ which is
43:21exactly what you'd expect so you can do
43:23an extraordinar good job of determining
43:26How likely someone is is to have high
43:28levels of creative achievement across
43:29their lifespan by using psychometric
43:31tests so it means that creativity is a
43:33real thing that's the first thing both
43:35in terms of thinking creatively that
43:38would be the Divergent thinking tests
43:40and also in terms of creative production
43:41and and that creative production and
43:43creative thinking are quite tightly
43:45aligned so so that was good that's been
43:48a very influential paper I think it's
43:49got about 500 citations now people use
43:52the creative achievement questionnaire a
43:53lot to assess creativity it's also
43:55associated with a higher average
43:57likelihood of psychosis and the other
43:59thing you see with creative people is
44:01that they tend especially if they're
44:02writers they tend the pathology that
44:04goes along with that is often manic
44:06depressive disorder and that's partly
44:08because manic people become unbelievably
44:10fluid right they can they speak
44:12incredibly quickly they generate ideas
44:14like mad and it's a hyperarousal of the
44:17positive emotion system roughly speaking
44:20and that can have as a side effect
44:21creativity
44:25so this is a cool study I just found
44:27this one today um it's a terror
44:30management study so what well I'll read
44:33it to you the relationship between
44:34creativity and symbolic immortality have
44:36been long acknowledged by scholars in a
44:39review of the literature we found 12
44:41papers that empirically examined the
44:43relationship between creativity and
44:44mortality awareness using a teror
44:46management Theory Paradigm overall
44:49supporting the notion that creativity
44:50plays an important role in the
44:52management of existential concerns also
44:54a mini metaanalysis of the impact of
44:57death Awareness on creativity resulted
44:59in a small medium weighted mean effect
45:01We examined the existential buffering
45:03functions of creative achievement as
45:05assessed by the creative achievement
45:06questionnaire in a sample of 108
45:08students at high but not low levels of
45:11creative goals creative achievement was
45:13associated with lower death thought
45:16accessibility under mortality salience
45:18well that means if you remind people
45:20that they're going to die the creative
45:22people were less likely to generate
45:24death related thoughts as a consequence
45:27to our knowledge this is the first
45:28empirical report of the anxiety
45:30buffering functions of creative
45:31achievement among people for whom
45:33creativity constitutes a central part of
45:35the cultural worldview it's like a
45:37empirical examination of some of the
45:39existential theories that I was
45:40presenting to you pre previously because
45:42part of the idea that was put forth Say
45:44by people like n was that one of the
45:46ways to fight back against existential
45:49anxiety and death anxiety and all of
45:51that is to engage in Creative production
45:53and so that was actually put to the
45:54empirical test in this study so I
45:56thought that was quite
46:05cool so here's another paper this was by
46:08Kaufman and a couple of my students
46:10Jacob HS and Colin D young I'm on that
46:12paper as well near the end there um they
46:15were interested in whether openness and
46:18intellect predicted different elements
46:20of creative achievement sort of goes
46:21back to your question about the
46:23differentiation between The Artsy end of
46:25creativity and maybe the more practical
46:27and and uh uh the Practical end
46:30Associated for example with the
46:32proclivity to like non-fiction the Big
46:35Five personality Dimension openness SL
46:38intellect is the trait most closely
46:41associated with creativity and creative
46:43achievement little is known however
46:45regarding the discriminant validity of
46:47its two aspects discriminant validity is
46:49whether one aspect predicts one set of
46:53things and the other aspect predicts a
46:54different set of things if there's no
46:56discriminant valid
46:57if they can't be used for different
46:58purposes then there's no point having
47:00them so you want to see that they're
47:02actually capable of of differentiating
47:04between between real world
47:07phenomena two of its aspects openness to
47:12experience reflecting cognitive
47:14engagement with perception fantasy
47:16Aesthetics and emotions and intellect
47:19reflecting cognitive engagement with
47:21abstract and semantic information
47:23primarily through reasoning in relation
47:25to creativity in four demographically
47:28diverse samples totaling over a thousand
47:30participants we investigated the
47:32independent predictive validity of
47:33openness and intellect by assessing the
47:35relations among cognitive ability
47:37Divergent thinking personality and
47:39creative achievement across the Arts and
47:42Sciences we confirmed the hypothesis
47:44that openness predicts creative
47:46achievement in the
47:48Arts and intellect predicts creative
47:51achievement in The Sciences inclusion of
47:53performance measures of General
47:55cognitive ability that's IQ
47:57and Divergent thinking indicated that
48:00the relationship of intellect to
48:01Scientific creativity may be due at
48:03least in part to these abilities lastly
48:05we found that extravision additionally
48:07predicted creative achievement in the
48:08Arts independently of openness so what
48:11that means is that creative achievement
48:13in the Arts is actually a function of
48:16the higher order trait plasticity right
48:19because plasticity was openness plus
48:20extroversion and that's associated
48:23fundamentally with activation of the
48:24underlying dopaminergic system which is
48:26the system that mediates exploratory
48:28Behavior so if you're dominated by that
48:31the function of that system you're an
48:33exploratory gregarious person then
48:35you're more likely to manifest creative
48:37ability in the Arts
48:40so
48:42apparently it's time to stop I think
48:45that's the same student who always does
48:47that isn't it all right we'll see you on
48:50Tuesday
48:54[Applause]