Saylor Just Beat BlackRock at the $62 Billion Bitcoin Game

0:00Last week, BlackRock ran the largest

0:01Bitcoin ETF on Earth at 802,000 Bitcoin.

0:05The fastest ETF in history to reach 70

0:07billion dollars in assets, but this

0:09morning, they're in second place. And

0:11the company that passed them has no ETF

0:13or fund or trillion-dollar balance

0:15sheet. It's just one operating company

0:17run by one guy who keeps doing the one

0:19thing he said he would do. That's

0:21Strategy at 815,061

0:24Bitcoin. And here's the part that should

0:26genuinely stop you cold. They achieved

0:28this milestone in a bear market. Bitcoin

0:31is down more than 40% from its October

0:32all-time high. And the last 3 months

0:34have been the worst sentiment

0:35environment in Bitcoin since 2022. And

0:38during that window, Strategy bought

0:4080,000 Bitcoin. BlackRock's IBIT added

0:43roughly 8,500. So, that's a 10 to 1 in

0:47the worst tape in 2 years. So, this

0:49video is about the machine that made

0:50that possible. I'm going to show you

0:51exactly how 34,164

0:54Bitcoin got pulled off the market in a

0:56single week, why 86.8% of that capital

0:59came from a product almost nobody in

1:01TradFi understands, and why the next

1:03milestone, 1 million Bitcoin, is now

1:06sitting 125 days away on a base case

1:08projection. So, by the end of this

1:10video, you're going to understand why

1:11the moat that Saylor has built cannot be

1:13replicated, and why that matters more

1:15than the news cycle is telling you.

1:17Let's get into it. So, let's start with

1:19the buy itself because the numbers are

1:20worth thinking about. They purchased

1:223,164 Bitcoin for about 2.54 billion

1:26dollars. The average purchase price was

1:28$74,395.

1:30This makes the third largest weekly

1:32acquisition in Strategy's history. The

1:34only two buys that were ever larger were

1:36in November of 2024, in the aftermath of

1:38the Trump election, with, of course,

1:40Bitcoin ripping higher. Every other top

1:4210 buy in the company's history occurred

1:44during a bull market, but this one did

1:47not. Think about that for a second. They

1:48were able to purchase 2 and 1/2 billion

1:50dollars worth of Bitcoin with it down

1:5240% from its all-time high when the

1:54appetite in in markets is generally much

1:57lower. So, pull up the chart here, you

1:59can see strategies 10 largest

2:00acquisitions ever. November 25th, 2024,

2:03November 18th, 2024, so on and so forth.

2:06Every single one of these buys sits

2:07inside a bull market regime with one

2:09exception. That's the bar in the middle

2:11of the chart. Colored orange reported

2:13yesterday morning. That is the largest

2:15Bitcoin acquisition in strategies

2:16history during a bear market by a wide

2:18margin. And that is not a small detail,

2:21and I'll explain why. That is a major

2:23story. For 5 years, the bear case on

2:25strategy has been the same. The machine

2:27only works when Bitcoin is going up. So,

2:29when the tape turns, the equity

2:31compresses, and the premium to net asset

2:33value evaporates, the ATM is going to

2:35shut off and the buying will stop.

2:36That's the thesis that every short has

2:38sold on every earnings call since 2020.

2:41This week was the most definitive

2:43counter example yet. So, here's the

2:44mechanism, and this is where the video

2:46we did last Monday ties in, so stick

2:48with me. About 87% of these buys, as you

2:51can see right here, or 2.18 billion

2:53dollars of the 2.54 billion, was funded

2:55not by common stock, not by convertible

2:57debt, but by a single instrument, and

2:59that's stretch. Strategies variable rate

3:01series A perpetual stretch preferred

3:03stock. That's the vehicle that I broke

3:05down last week as the side door into the

3:07318 trillion dollar global bond market.

3:10And last week's video explained what the

3:11product is. This video is what happens

3:13when the product works. So, as you can

3:15see here, there are 21.8 million shares

3:17of stretch sold, and gross proceeds were

3:192.18 billion dollars, and the ATM

3:21capture rate of stretch was

3:22approximately 80% last week, meaning 80

3:25cents of every dollar that traded

3:26through stretch at or above par was

3:28captured by strategy and converted into

3:30Bitcoin. The week before it was a 79%

3:34capture rate. So, this is no longer

3:35theory. This is a machine with

3:37measurable throughput that's increasing

3:39week after week as more investors become

3:41aware of it. And here's what that

3:42throughput looked like in real time.

3:44Last week, I mentioned stretch printed

3:46back-to-back record volume days. On

3:48April 13th, stretch related activity

3:49corresponded to an estimated 7,741

3:53Bitcoin of purchasing power. On April

3:5514th, another 9,500 Bitcoin. Two

3:58consecutive sessions, 17,105

4:01Bitcoin of implied acquisition capacity

4:03in just 48 hours through one preferred

4:05stock that almost no one on financial

4:07television is talking about. Yesterday

4:09morning, the 8K dropped where they

4:11revealed that 34,164

4:13Bitcoin was acquired. So, that volume

4:15that you watched flow through Stretch

4:17last week was not noise, it was just

4:18Saylor loading up the chamber. The

4:20filing yesterday was the trigger being

4:22pulled. And the throughput is what

4:23should be waking people up. I want to

4:25break down just how much Bitcoin they

4:27purchased in the context of the mining

4:29capacity so you can understand the

4:31significance of what just happened. So,

4:33they bought 34,164

4:35Bitcoin in a single week. Right now,

4:37post having, the entire Bitcoin network

4:39produces only 450 Bitcoin per day. So,

4:42Strategy bought almost 11 weeks of

4:44global mining issuance in 7 days. They

4:47took roughly 2 and 1/2 months of new

4:48supply off the market in a single week.

4:51Every single one of those coins is a

4:53whole coiner pulled out of circulation.

4:55And every one of them sits on the

4:56balance sheet of a company whose stated

4:58intention is to never sell. Now, let me

5:00break down why this matters. Stretch

5:02currently offers an annualized yield of

5:0411 and 1/2%. The US investment grade

5:07corporate bond market yields roughly

5:085.4% and high yield is around 7.8%. So,

5:11even taking extreme risk, you're still

5:13several hundred basis points below what

5:15Stretch offers. So, as long as Stretch

5:17offers double the yield of investment

5:19grade credit and a variable rate

5:21mechanism that lets Strategy defend par,

5:23there is a structural bid for this

5:24product from any fixed income desk whose

5:26mandate allows preferred equity. And the

5:28recent proposal to shift Stretch

5:30dividends from monthly to semi-monthly

5:32is specifically engineered to dampen

5:34cyclicality, stabilize the price, and

5:36drive overnight yield demand leading

5:37into every ex-dividend date. So, that's

5:40Saylor deliberately re-engineering the

5:42plumbing to make the machine run faster

5:44and allow it to hit par more frequently.

5:46You see, by doubling up the amount of

5:48dividend dates that stretch has, they're

5:50trying to make it trade above par more

5:51often so that they can actually hit the

5:53ATM facility and use those proceeds to

5:55purchase Bitcoin. So, the result of this

5:57faster plumbing is more frequent buys.

5:59The market prior to stretch saw strategy

6:01announce major purchases on a cadence of

6:03roughly every 3 to 6 weeks. With stretch

6:06running at 80% capture and semi-monthly

6:08dividends on the way, you're looking at

6:10a structural setup where strategy could

6:11announce purchases every 2 weeks

6:13indefinitely for as long as stretch

6:15trades at or above par. Now, think about

6:17what that means for supply. At the

6:19current pace, strategy is on track to

6:21buy a full year of new Bitcoin issuance

6:22in just a month of calendar time. There

6:25are 13,500 Bitcoin mined every month,

6:27and last week alone strategy bought more

6:29than 2 and 1/2 times that. If stretch

6:31maintains the throughput and its current

6:33trajectory, the company is absorbing

6:35supply at a rate that no buyer in the

6:36history of this asset has ever achieved.

6:39Uh now, here's one piece of math that

6:41genuinely broke my brain when I ran it.

6:43Strategy now holds 815,061

6:46Bitcoin. So, the total amount of Bitcoin

6:48remaining to be mined forever from now

6:51until the year 2140 is 981,453

6:55coins. So, one company, founded in 1989

6:58as a business intelligence software

7:00vendor, now holds a Bitcoin treasury

7:02that is almost the entire size of the

7:04whole future issuance schedule of

7:06Bitcoin. Every coin that will ever be

7:08mined, every block reward that every

7:09miner will earn from today until the

7:11last satoshis ever produced over 100

7:13years from now adds up to barely more

7:15than what one company already has on its

7:17balance sheet.

7:18Let that sink in for a second. Now comes

7:20the symbolic part that I mentioned at

7:21the start of the video because the news

7:23yesterday was not just the buy, it's the

7:25passing of the torch. For the first time

7:27since the second quarter of 2024,

7:29strategy holds more Bitcoin than

7:31BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust.

7:33815,000 versus 802,000. To a lead of

7:37roughly 12,000 Bitcoin. The fastest ETF

7:40in history to hit $70 billion in AUM was

7:42leapfrogged by a single operating

7:44company with a preferred stock issuance

7:46program. And this is where the moat

7:48becomes very visible. BlackRock cannot

7:51replicate Stretch. No asset manager can.

7:53Because an ETF by definition passes

7:55through. It holds the asset, charges a

7:57fee, and it doesn't accumulate on a per

7:59share basis. IBIT is a container. So,

8:02every share of IBIT represents a fixed

8:04quantity of Bitcoin. So, if you own one

8:05IBIT share today, you own the same

8:07fractional share of Bitcoin tomorrow.

8:09Minus a 0.25% yearly expense ratio.

8:12On the other hand, Stretch is not a

8:14container. Strategy is an accumulator.

8:16So, the Bitcoin per share metric

8:18compounds upward because the company is

8:20constantly using equity issuance to buy

8:22Bitcoin at a premium to its stated net

8:24asset value. And the delta accrues to

8:26existing shareholders. Strategy's

8:28reported Bitcoin yield year-to-date is 9

8:30and 1/2%. So, that's 9 and 1/2% more

8:33Bitcoin per share for holders in the

8:35first 4 months of the year during a bear

8:37market. IBIT shareholders got the price

8:39return of Bitcoin minus fees, whereas

8:41Strategy shareholders got the price

8:42return plus 9 and 1/2% of additional

8:45Bitcoin.

8:46That is the moat. It cannot be copied by

8:48a passive product like any of these ETF

8:50issuers because the moment that you make

8:52a passive product active enough to

8:53replicate it, you have to take the

8:55career risk of running Strategy. And

8:57nobody at BlackRock is going to do that

8:59inside of a fund wrapper. So, you might

9:01be thinking, "Okay, but what if

9:02Bitcoin's price action gets worse? What

9:04if it drops another 20% and Stretch

9:07breaks par and the machine stops?"

9:08That's a totally fair question, but

9:10here's the answer that the market gave

9:12you last week. Bitcoin was and still is

9:14down 40% from its high during the week

9:16that Strategy scooped up those 34,000

9:18coins. Strategy's capture rate was 80%

9:21during that tape. So, the machine ran at

9:23full speed while the market was at its

9:25weakest point since 2022. If the tape

9:27gets worse, Strategy's yield spread

9:29versus corporate credit actually widens

9:31in Strategy's favor because risk-off

9:34flows compress credit yields and

9:35Strategy's variable rate mechanism can

9:37flex to stay competitive. So, Bitcoin's

9:39price falling further is not the

9:41scenario that breaks this. The scenario

9:43that breaks this is Bitcoin going to

9:44zero. And if you think that's going to

9:46happen, chances are you're not even

9:48watching this video. Unless you're a

9:50hater, in which case thank you so much

9:52for the view. I appreciate it. Before I

9:53get into what happens next, if you want

9:55me to break down why the next monetary

9:56reset could be bigger than 2008, why

9:59pundits are calling for the biggest

10:00print in modern history, and why Bitcoin

10:03is the single best positioned asset on

10:04Earth for what is coming, comment big

10:06print in the comments and I'll make that

10:08video next. So, where does this go from

10:10here? Well, Strategy's next stated

10:12milestone is 1 million Bitcoin. And at

10:14the current pace, the base case

10:16projection puts that at August 25th,

10:182026, which is just 125 days from now.

10:22184,939

10:24Bitcoin between where they are and where

10:26they're headed. At the run rate of at

10:28least 6 months, that is achievable

10:30without a single acceleration. And the

10:33structural context here is staggering.

10:35Satoshi's estimated holdings are roughly

10:371.1 million Bitcoin. Coinbase, the

10:39largest exchange on Earth, custodies

10:41approximately 976,000 Bitcoin on behalf

10:44of their users. Strategy at 1 million

10:46BTC would sit behind only Satoshi

10:49Nakamoto, who has not moved his coins in

10:5116 years and is almost certainly lost to

10:54the network forever. Meaning Strategy at

10:561 million Bitcoin would functionally be

10:59the single largest active holder of

11:01Bitcoin in the world. And the buying

11:02won't stop at 1 million. The next

11:04halving is April 2028, course, that's

11:07when the supply spigot cuts in half

11:08again. Miner issuance is going to drop

11:10from 450 Bitcoin per day to 225. So, if

11:14Strategy maintains even half of its

11:16current pace between now and then,

11:18they'll be buying multiple years of

11:19global mining issuance every single

11:20month. While the pie of newly minted

11:22coins shrinks by 50%. So, let me bring

11:25this home. Last week I told you Saylor

11:27had built a side door into the $318

11:29trillion dollar bond market. That video

11:31explained the mechanism. Stretch 11 and

11:341/2% yield, 80% ATM capture in a product

11:37that converts fixed income capital into

11:39spot Bitcoin demand at scale. This week,

11:41that mechanism produced the third

11:43largest Bitcoin buy in strategies

11:44history during the worst tape for

11:46Bitcoin in 2 years. Funded 87% by

11:49stretch. The theory worked. Strategies

11:52mode is real and the company that just

11:53passed BlackRock did it with a vehicle

11:55that BlackRock cannot issue in a market

11:57BlackRock cannot replicate accumulating

11:59an asset whose future supply is smaller

12:01than the stack that one company already

12:03holds. Saylor isn't loud because he's a

12:05salesman, he's loud because he is

12:07running the largest accumulation

12:09operation in the history of financial

12:10markets and it's working. So, if this

12:13kind of breakdown is useful to you,

12:14channel memberships are now open.

12:16Members get early access to videos

12:18before they go public plus the monthly

12:20member-only macro brief where I walk

12:21through what I'm watching on the tape

12:23that didn't make it into the public

12:24videos. All you have to do is click join

12:26right there or click the link in the

12:28description. If you haven't watched the

12:30breakdown of how stretch actually works

12:32and why the 318 trillion dollar bond

12:33market is being pulled into Bitcoin one

12:35basis point at a time, that is a video

12:37that pairs with this one. You should be

12:39learning the mechanism behind the

12:40machine that you just watched break

12:42records. I'll see you over there.