Full transcript
7.2 Million Dollars Per Coin
0:00The United States is going to print $7.2
0:03million for every new Bitcoin mined this
0:05year. That's not a metaphor, and it's
0:07not me guessing. 164,000 Bitcoin will be
0:11mined in 2026 in the United States will
0:13create roughly $1.2 trillion new over
0:17the same 12 months. 1.2 trillion divided
0:19by 164K is $7.2 million of brand new
0:24money arriving for every single new
0:26Bitcoin. And if you own Bitcoin or gold
0:29or a house or a savings account, that
0:31one ratio is going to explain more about
0:33the next 10 years of your financial life
0:36than any Fed meeting, any election, or
0:38any price prediction that you're going
0:40to hear this year. Gold already figured
0:43this out. The world central banks have
0:45been repositioning around that asset for
0:4718 months. And this year, they did
0:49something that they haven't done since
0:501996. I'm going to show you exactly what
0:53it was, but you need the rest of the
0:55context first for it to land properly.
0:57Because most people think that the money
0:59printing happened in 2020. They remember
1:01the stimulus checks. They remember
1:03everything that they buy costing more
1:05afterward, and they think that it ended.
1:07But it did not end. In fact, since 2020,
1:10it has only accelerated. The American
1:12money supply just set a brand new
1:13all-time record for the 27th month in a
1:16row. It's now $1.43 43 trillion larger
1:19than the peak of the emergency that
1:21everyone remembers 6 years ago. 2020 was
1:24not the end of the printing. It was just
1:26the part that they told you about. And
1:27by the end of this video, you're going
1:29to see why the math says that Bitcoin is
1:31trading about 65 to 95% below where it
1:34actually should be right now and why $1
1:37million Bitcoin is much closer than you
What M2 Actually Counts
1:39think. So, let's start with the
1:41receipts. The measure that matters here
1:43is called M2. And it's much simpler than
1:46it sounds. M2 is just every dollar in
1:48existence in a form you could actually
1:50spend. So cash, checking accounts,
1:52savings accounts, money market funds,
1:53things like that. It's just a tally of
1:55how many dollars are out there floating
1:57around in the system. And in July, that
1:59tally hit 23.22
2:02trillion, an all-time high. It grew by $
2:04102.8 billion in that single month. And
2:07it's now increased for 27 consecutive
2:10months without one pause. Since the
2:12first day of January, the money supply
2:14has grown by $862.7
2:16billion. Eight months, almost $1
2:19trillion with no emergency or reason for
2:22printing to speak of, at least on the
2:24surface. And go back to the number from
2:26the open because this reframes
2:28everything you think you know about the
2:30last 5 years. The March 2022 peak in
2:32money printing, that's the top of the co
2:34money creation. It's a moment that
2:36everyone points to when they explain why
2:38their groceries cost what they cost now.
2:40But we are 1.4 43 trillion above that
2:44peak right now today. The thing that
2:46everybody believes was a one-time
2:48emergency turned out to be the new norm.
2:50And you haven't heard about it. And
One In Three Dollars On Earth
2:51there's a reason for that. And now I
2:53have to widen this out because
2:54everything I just told you is only
2:56America. And America is not the sole
2:59problem. America is just onethird of the
3:02problem. The global money supply. So
3:04every dollar in euro and yen and yuan in
3:07the world added together just hit $150
3:10trillion.
3:12It grew by $10.7 trillion in a single
3:14year. That's 7.7%.
3:17So while they tell you that inflation is
3:18contained at 3%, you got to understand
3:20that that's simply not true. We'll get
3:22to that in a minute. Here's what that
3:24does to the number in the title. I told
3:26you that the United States will create
3:28$7.2 million for every new Bitcoin mine
3:30this year. That was the polite version.
3:32Take the global figure instead. $10.7
3:35trillion of new money in 12 months
3:38against 164,000 new Bitcoin. That is $65
3:41million of brand new, freshly printed
3:43money for every single Bitcoin that
3:46comes out of the ground. And one more,
3:47cuz I want you to feel the scale rather
3:49than just hearing it. Since 2020, the
3:52world has created $50 trillion. The
3:54total is $150 trillion, which means that
3:57one out of every three units of money in
4:00existence on Earth today did not exist 6
4:03years ago. We have printed 33% of all of
4:06the world's money in just 6 years. Not
4:08the United States, the Earth. Now, the
4:11obvious question, and the one that
4:12decides whether any of this actually
4:14matters to you, is whether or not it
4:16stops. Because if this is just a phase,
4:18if the money printing is going to stop
4:19at some point, you can wait it out.
4:21Eventually, your purchasing power will
4:23restore itself. But let me show you the
4:25machine underneath it. And then I want
4:27to show you what four different
4:28institutions have already done about
4:30that machine because they are not
The Loop That Cannot Stop
4:32waiting. The United States now carries
4:34$40 trillion in debt. If you've been on
4:35the channel for a while, you've known I
4:37spent the last two videos talking about
4:39this specifically. The interest alone on
4:41that debt has crossed $1 trillion a
4:43year, and it's up 15% over the last 12
4:46months. Not the debt, just the interest
4:49alone. The government is in fact now
4:51spending more to service what it already
4:53borrowed than it spends on almost
4:54anything else. And it is still running a
4:57deficit, meaning we are spending more
4:59money than we're taking in of roughly
5:01$1.8 trillion a year on top of that. So
5:05follow the loop here because this is the
5:07entire thing. The government spends more
5:09than it takes in. It borrows the
5:10difference. The borrowing raises the
5:12interest bill. The interest bill widens
5:14the deficit. And a wider deficit means
5:16more borrowing next year than this year.
5:18It's an infinite loop and there's no
5:20version of that loop where the number of
5:22dollars that are printed every single
5:23year goes down. Not with a different
5:26president or even with a different Fed
5:27chair. The math only runs in one
5:30direction. And every single person in
5:32this video who manages real money has
5:34already figured it out. Now hold that
The Number Nobody Can Vote On
5:36against the other number. 164,000.
5:39That's how many Bitcoin will be created
5:40this year. And again, that's not a
5:42guess. That is written into the
5:44software. It's enforced by every
5:46computer running the network. And
5:47there's no committee anywhere on Earth
5:49that can change it. Not this year and
5:51not ever. One of those two numbers is
5:53attached to a machine that cannot stop
5:55printing. But the other one is attached
5:57to an absolutely finite supply. That's
6:00the entire trade. And everything I am
6:02about to show you is somebody enormous
6:04acting on it. And you probably should
6:07too. But before we get to that, before
6:08we go any further, comment down below if
6:10you've noticed your own money buying
6:12less over the last 6 years. Even though
6:14the official numbers keep telling you
6:16that inflation is under control, I read
6:18every single one of these and I want to
6:19see how many of you are living the same
6:21thing that I am. And while you're down
6:23there, if you're not yet subscribed, if
6:24you're getting something out of this,
6:25make sure you hit subscribe, drop a
6:26like, and turn on the bell so these
6:28videos show up in your inbox. It helps
A Record Buy Into The Worst Quarter Since 2013
6:30the channel a ton. I appreciate everyone
6:32who does it. So, here's the part I
6:34promised you at the beginning. In the
6:35second quarter of this year, the world's
6:37central banks bought 288.9
6:40tons of gold. That is a 62% increase
6:43over the same quarter last year, and
6:45it's the single strongest second quarter
6:47in the entire history of the World Gold
6:49Council's data. Here's why that specific
6:52quarter matters so much. I don't want to
6:54bore you here. Stick with me for a
6:55second. Q2 of this year was the worst
6:57quarter for the gold price since 2013.
6:59Gold had come off a record near $5,600
7:02in January and collapsed. Everyone who
7:05owned it for momentum was totally gone.
7:07Yet, despite that weakness, the
7:09institutions with the best macro
7:10information on the planet bought a
7:12record amount. So, clearly, they were
7:14not chasing the rally. The price was
7:15crashing while they were doing it. They
7:17were buying while it was falling. That's
7:19not what you do when you're trading
The First Time Since 1996
7:20something. It's what you do when you're
7:22replacing something. And this summer,
7:24they finished. For the first time since
7:261996, gold passed the United States
7:28Treasuries as the largest reserve asset
7:31held by central banks anywhere in the
7:33world. Stick with that for a second. For
7:3530 years, the safest thing a country
7:37could own was a promise from the United
7:39States government. That's what a
7:40Treasury bond is. Ultimately, it's a
7:42promise. And this year, collectively and
7:44quietly, the world decided that a shiny
7:47rock is now the safer thing to hold. And
7:51look at what changed in between. In
7:521996, the entire national debt of the
7:55United States is $5.2 trillion. But
7:58today, it's $40 trillion. Eight times
8:01larger in just 30 years. It's the reason
8:03that these holdings flipped. That is
8:05one. Now, here is two. The word
8:08debasement appeared in 1533 Bloomberg
8:12articles in a single week last month.
8:14That's the third highest weekly count
8:16ever recorded. Not on X or Twitter, not
8:18on this channel, but on the terminal
8:20that sits on every institutional trading
8:22desk on Earth. And for your reference,
8:25debasements means the devaluation of the
8:27currency. Three is Black Rockck, the
BlackRock Gave You The Mechanism
8:30largest asset manager on the planet. It
8:33published research this month stating
8:34plainly that Bitcoin's 10-year returns
8:37track accelerating global money supply
8:39and they're recommending it as a hedge
8:41against the exploding United States
8:42debt. Listen to that again because they
8:45just handed you the entire mechanism and
8:47it stopped one step short of the
8:49conclusion. Black Rockck says that
8:51Bitcoin tracks the money supply. The
8:53money supply is compounding at roughly
8:55$700 billion a year in America and $10.7
8:58trillion a year worldwide. They gave you
9:00the relationship. They just didn't print
9:02the number that it produces. And this is
9:04not a research desk writing notes from
9:06the sidelines. Black Rockck's Bitcoin
9:08fund holds 771,641
9:10Bitcoin at the time of this video's
9:12market close. About $61 billion, and it
9:15absorbed roughly 62% of the $3 billion
9:18that flowed into Bitcoin funds in
9:20August. They have massive position here.
9:22And four, in August of 2025, with the
9:25national debt at $37 trillion, the
What The Treasury Secretary Stopped Saying
9:28Treasury Secretary said he and the
9:30president were laser focused on paying
9:32down the debt. One year and $2.8
9:34trillion of additional borrowing. Later,
9:36here's what he said last week. He said,
9:38"There is nothing magic about the $40
9:39trillion number, and we can grow our way
9:41out of that." That's not a gaff. That is
9:43the plan being announced. But think
9:45about it this way. You cannot cut your
9:48way out of that loop and you can't tax
9:50your way out of it. Lowering rates
9:51ultimately does nothing because the
9:53money needs to get spent into the
9:54economy for it to be propped up and you
9:56can't tax your way out of it because tax
9:58receipts are earning less and less each
10:00year. So the remaining option is to make
10:02the economy bigger in dollar terms. And
10:05the fastest way that anyone has ever
10:07made an economy bigger in dollar terms
10:09is simply to make more dollars. Central
10:12banks buying gold at a record while the
10:14price collapsed. Bloomberg running the
10:16word debasement at a nearrecord rate.
10:18Black Rockck formerly recommending
10:20Bitcoin against the debt problem. And
10:22the man who runs the American balance
10:23sheet going from paying it down to
10:25growing out of it by printing a ton of
10:27money inside 12 months. Those are four
10:30completely separate stories that ran in
10:31four different weeks, but they're the
10:33same operation. And everyone who can see
10:35this is already positioned for it. And
10:37not one of them is telling you to do the
10:39same thing. By the way, I run a
10:41community for serious Bitcoin investors
10:42called the Hard Money Room. weekly live
10:44discussions with me, plus a live
10:46dashboard I built that scores exactly
10:47where we are in the cycle. Link for that
10:49is at the top of the description. So now
10:51the question is not whether this is
10:53happening. The question is why you're
10:55probably going to do nothing about it.
10:57Anyway, now hear me out on this. There
Why You'll Probably Still Do Nothing
10:59are three reasons and they're all
11:00reasonable and I want to take them
11:02seriously one at a time because I have
11:04used all three of them myself. The first
11:06one is that the money supply always goes
11:08up. It's gone up for decades. Since the
11:10year 2000, American money supply has
11:12grown at an average of about 6.3% a
11:14year, which is roughly $700 billion
11:17annually. Globally, the compounded rate
11:19since 2000 is 6.9%. So, what's happening
11:23right now is not remarkable. If
11:24anything, it's on the low side of the
11:26historical range. Well, that is correct.
11:28Every word of it, and it's the most
11:30important thing in this entire video.
11:32But if this required a crisis, you could
11:34wait it out. You could tell yourself
11:36that the money printing was an emergency
11:38measure. the emergency is passed and the
11:40system will normalize on its own. That
11:42is what most people are quietly assuming
11:44without ever saying it out loud. But
11:46this number is not spiking. It's
11:48compounding. There's no emergency. It's
11:50going up quietly monthly in the
11:53background at a rate that literally
11:54nobody reports because it's not dramatic
11:56enough to write a story about. You don't
11:58need a pandemic for this math to run
12:00against you. You just need your average
12:02Tuesday or Wednesday. The second reason
12:04people give for not caring about money
12:06printing and what it does to them is
12:07that they think, "Well, wages go up,
12:09too. If everything inflates higher,
Wages Went Up 12x. Stocks Went Up 100x.
12:11nobody's actually worse off because I'm
12:12getting paid more than I was 5 years
12:14ago." Well, it's not exactly true. Look
12:16at what that actually produced. Since
12:18the mid1 1960s, American wages are up
12:20nearly 12 times. That sounds enormous,
12:23but over the exact same window, the S&P
12:25500, America's largest stock index, is
12:27up 100 times. Roughly eight times as
12:30much relative to wages. That gap is not
12:33an accident and it's not a policy
12:34failure. It is the mechanism working
12:36exactly as designed. Think about it this
12:38way. New money does not arrive evenly.
12:41When it gets printed, it arrives at the
12:42top of the asset stack and works its way
12:45down. And by the time it reaches your
12:47paycheck, most of the purchasing power
12:49has already been claimed by whoever
12:51owned the assets first. Which brings us
12:53to the third reason. And this is the one
12:55that I really want you to sit with. You
12:56may think, fine, if assets absorb the
12:59money, then just own assets. Buy the
13:01stock index. Problem solved. But here's
13:03what happened in the second quarter of
13:05this year. The single largest
13:06contributor to S&P 500 earnings was not
13:09even a member of the S&P 500. It wasn't
The Biggest Earner In The S&P Wasn't In The S&P
13:11even a publicly traded company. Big tech
13:13booked more than 160 billion in gains
13:16last quarter from simply marking up
13:19their own investments in privately held
13:21AI companies. Companies that they partly
13:23own, valued by themselves, run through
13:26the income statement as earnings. That
13:28is a meaningful share of what you are
13:30buying when you buy the index right now.
13:32Not a new factory or actual business
13:34expansion, new products, whatever. A
13:36number that one company assigned to a
13:38stake in another company that nobody can
13:40independently price. There's nothing
13:42illegal about it. It's fully legal. But
13:44it's just a reminder that the thing you
13:46thought was a hard asset that is certain
13:48to go up forever has a lot more
13:50discretion baked into it than you
13:52assumed. And here's where all three of
13:54these arguments converge on the one
13:56asset that's going to save your
13:57portfolio over the next decade. Real
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Sponsor Segment
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What A Million Dollars Actually Requires
15:15Strongwealth and Salt Lending for
15:16sponsoring today's video. And now back
15:18to the show. Now, let's talk about the
15:20gap because again, this is the part that
15:23should change how you look at the price
15:24on your screen and point you to the one
15:26asset that could save you. Start with
15:28the number in the title because I want
15:30to show you what it actually requires.
15:32$1 million per Bitcoin. Right now, there
15:35are roughly 20 million Bitcoin in
15:37existence. At a million each, that makes
15:39Bitcoin a $20 trillion asset. Gold today
15:43is just $32 trillion. So, a
15:46million-dollar Bitcoin isn't even
15:48Bitcoin going to the moon. A
15:50million-dollar Bitcoin is just Bitcoin
15:51reaching about twothirds of the size of
15:53gold. And gold by itself added more than
15:56$20 trillion in market value between
15:58January 2024 and March of this year.
16:01Gold added an entire million-doll
16:03Bitcoin in literally 26 months. While
16:05nobody called it a bubble, Bitcoin today
16:07is worth just $1.5 trillion. Gold is
16:10more than 20 times larger than the
16:12asset. It does the exact same job with a
16:14harder supply. And the two of them have
16:16stopped behaving like rivals and they've
16:18started behaving in the same way. If you
16:20price them against each other, Bitcoin
16:22sat in the same range for 5 years, but
16:24it just broke below that range and
16:26reclaimed it and it's been rising for
16:28the last few weeks. Both assets were the
16:30momentum lagards of this entire year.
16:32While AI got the spotlight in the
16:34capital, Bitcoin and gold fell behind.
16:36But the same money is now funding both
The Chart Everybody Deleted
16:39of them at the same time for the same
16:41reason. That hasn't been true for most
16:43of Bitcoin's life, and it's the clearest
16:45signal in this entire video about what
16:47bucket Bitcoin has moved into. So, what
16:50does the math actually say Bitcoin is
16:52worth and what it could be worth one
16:54day? Well, if you take the model that
16:56tracks Bitcoin against global liquidity
16:58a year ago, that chart was on every
17:00timeline in finance on Twitter every
17:03single day. You've probably seen it
17:04before. It's this one right here. But
17:06then, Bitcoin decoupled from it and the
17:08chart quietly disappeared from
17:09everybody's feed. Well, it didn't stop
17:11working. It just stopped being
17:13convenient. Right now, that model puts
17:16fair value at $223,800
17:20against a price of $77,000 per Bitcoin.
17:23That is 1.77 standard deviations below
17:25fair value. And it has only stretched
17:27that far twice in Bitcoin's entire
17:30history. Well, that is the conservative
The Ceiling, And The Honest Version
17:32number. That is Bitcoin simply catching
17:33up to the money supply and doing nothing
17:35else. The title number, $1 million, is
17:382/3 of gold. full parody with gold. In
17:40other words, the same total market value
17:42is roughly $1.5 million per Bitcoin. And
17:46if you want the extreme outerbound, here
17:48it is. If gold had continued backing all
17:50of the world's money the way that it did
17:52for most of human history, its market
17:54value today would be somewhere around
17:56$103 trillion instead of 32. That's the
18:00actual size of the job here. The size of
18:02the total addressable market, if you
18:04will. Bitcoin doing that job is around
18:06$5 million per coin. Again, it's not a
18:09forecast. It's just the size of the
18:11addressable role. And rolls do not get
18:13filled overnight or even completely.
18:15What I am telling you is that the
18:16distance between $77,000 and any of the
Who Actually Owns Anything
18:19numbers that I just mentioned to you is
18:21the trade. And the most conservative
18:23one, the boring one, the one that
18:25literally just says Bitcoin catches up
18:27to the money supply and stops is nearly
18:29three times the current price. And let
18:30me give you the honest version, too,
18:32because you shouldn't trust anybody who
18:34only hands you the upside. If the money
18:36supply stops growing, if the deficit
18:38actually closes, if central banks start
18:40selling gold and buying treasuries
18:42again, then I'm wrong about all of this.
18:44Those are the three things that I watch.
18:45If they can actually stop printing
18:47money. As of this morning, all three are
18:49moving harder in the other direction
18:51than they were a year ago. In the year
18:53before that, and a year before that, you
18:55get the picture. So, come back to where
Nobody Has Done The Division
18:57we started. You have 164,000 new Bitcoin
19:00this year against 1.2 trillion new, $7.2
19:04$.2 million of fresh money for every
19:06single Bitcoin that is mined. And that
19:08is only counting America. Worldwide,
19:10that is $65 million. And that ratio gets
19:14worse every single month in your favor
19:17whether anybody knows about it or not.
19:19You are not early because you found
19:21something nobody knows about. Central
19:22banks know about it. Black Rockck knows
19:24about it. The Treasury Secretary said
19:25out loud that the plan is to print more
19:28money in order to fix the debt problem.
19:30you were early to Bitcoin because almost
19:32nobody has done the math. If you want to
19:35understand exactly how the Fed got boxed
19:37into this situation in the first place
19:38and why they cannot fix it even if they
19:40want to, I broke the whole thing down in
19:42my last video and that's where I would
19:44go next. It's the logical next piece to
19:46this one and I'll see you guys over
19:47there. Check out the hard money room at
19:49the link at the top of the video
19:50description. Also, channel members got
19:51this video early, so hit the join button
19:53down below to support the channel and
19:54become a member. And if you haven't
19:56already, subscribe to the channel and
19:57hit the bell to get notified whenever a
19:58new video goes live. and book a
20:00one-on-one session with me at the link
20:01in the video description.