The Most Dangerous Stage Of The Bitcoin Cycle Just Started

0:00Bitcoin just ripped 12% off of its low,

0:02seven straight green days for the first

0:04time since March, sitting at $64,000

0:07right now, and every single bear who

0:09spent the last 2 months calling for the

0:11end is staring at a chart that seemingly

0:13won't die. The relief is everywhere, and

0:15you can feel the market finally exhale.

0:18But, what if I told you that the Bitcoin

0:20bottom probably isn't in yet? I know how

0:22that sounds after a fantastic week for

0:25the price, but the loudest sell signal

0:27that this market could possibly print

0:29just hit the tape this week, and instead

0:31of killing Bitcoin, it might be the

0:33exact thing that marks the floor.

0:35Michael Saylor's company strategy just

0:37sold 3,588 Bitcoin, $216 million worth,

0:41the biggest sale in the history of the

0:43company at an average price of around

0:45$60,000, which is below what they paid.

0:47So, they sold at a loss, but 4 hours

0:49later, Bitcoin was green. And here's the

0:52part that nobody is telling you. The

0:54last time that Saylor sold his biggest

0:56ever stack of Bitcoin was December 2022.

0:59And December 2022 was the exact bottom

1:02of the last bear market, the lowest

1:03print of the entire cycle. So, the

1:05largest player in this market just rang

1:07the same bell that he rang at the bottom

1:094 years ago, and almost everyone is

1:11reading it exactly backwards. Now, I'm

1:13not going to sugarcoat what comes next.

1:15The bottom is close, but it probably

1:17isn't fully in. There is one more force

1:20that could drag this thing lower before

1:22the real turn, and it lit up once more

1:24this week in the one place that almost

1:26nobody watching Bitcoin is looking. So,

1:28by the end of this video, you're going

1:30to know exactly where and when Bitcoin

1:32bottoms this cycle, the levels to watch

1:34on the way down, and the single macro

1:36catalyst that flips this from a relief

1:37rally into the start of the next bull

1:39market. Let's get into it. So, here's

1:42the frame I want you holding for the

1:43next 15 minutes or so, because it's the

1:46only thing that has actually worked this

1:47entire year. Forget the soft macro,

1:50forget the ISM prints and the money

1:52supply overlays that everybody bolts

1:53onto Bitcoin to sound smart. This year,

1:56Bitcoin has traced one exact chain.

1:58We've discussed it on the channel

1:59before. And that chain is oil, then the

2:01straight up for moves, then inflation,

2:03the Fed, and then the Bitcoin cycle low.

2:06Five links. Every major move that

2:08Bitcoin has made in 2026 has traveled

2:10down that exact chain. So, if you get

2:12the chain right, then you get Bitcoin

2:15right. Now, I'm going to walk you

2:15through all five links, and the fifth

2:17link is where the bottom actually forms.

2:20So, let's start with the sale because it

2:22is the loudest thing on the tape, and

2:23it's also the most misread. Strategy

2:26sold in two tranches, roughly 1,363

2:29Bitcoin over the last two days of June

2:31for about $80 million,

2:32and another 2,225 Bitcoin over the first

2:35five days of July for about $135

2:37million. In total, 3,588 Bitcoin worth

2:40$216 million at an average sale price of

2:43around $60,000 against a cost basis

2:46that's unfortunately higher than

2:47$75,000. So, they sold at a loss, but

2:50they actually did this on purpose. The

2:52consensus writes itself, "Never sell

2:54Bitcoin is dead." Sailor caved, the

2:56dividends are eating the stack, and

2:58every one of those takes misses the

3:00point here entirely. There is a machine

3:03that is at work here, and here's what

3:04the machine actually does. Strategy

3:06raises money in the fixed income market

3:08by issuing preferred shares, five of

3:10them. When capital markets are open and

3:11friendly, they fund the dividends on

3:13those preferreds by issuing more stock,

3:15but when markets tighten like what's

3:16happening now, Bitcoin becomes the

3:18funding source instead. That is what

3:20this sale means. It covered the

3:22quarterly dividends on four of their

3:23preferred instruments and the monthly

3:25dividend on their fifth. 24 straight

3:28distributions, every one paid on time.

3:30Now, I want you to watch the number that

3:31almost every headline skipped, and then

3:33we'll discuss why this is so important

3:35for Bitcoin. Strategy's dollar reserve

3:37on June 28th, the day that they

3:39announced this framework, was $2.5

3:41billion. Strategy's dollar reserve on

3:42July 5th after paying every one of those

3:45dividends was still $2.5 billion. Their

3:48reserve did not shrink, the dividends

3:50went out, the Bitcoin proceeds came back

3:52in, and the war chest ended exactly

3:55where it started. They sold 3,588

3:57Bitcoin out of 843,775.

4:02So, 4/10 of 1% of their stack to fund an

4:05entire quarter of obligations, and the

4:07reserve backing those obligations never

4:09moved. That is not a treasury being

4:11consumed or a company that is in its

4:13death throes. That's a machine that

4:15converts the most conservative pool of

4:17capital on the planet, the $300 fixed

4:19income market, into permanent Bitcoin on

4:22the balance sheet. And then, it sheds a

4:24tiny sliver back out to keep the engine

4:26humming. Saylor said it himself this

4:28week. They might sell 2/10 of percent of

4:30Bitcoin in a month, and then buy five

4:32times that much in the same month. So,

4:34the single largest seller of Bitcoin

4:36this entire last month is still the

4:38largest buyer in this market by a mile.

4:41Take a listen.

4:41>> We might sell 20 basis points of

4:44Bitcoin, like .2% of Bitcoin in a month.

4:48We'd probably buy 5x or 10x that much in

4:50the same month, but if you sell $100

4:52million of Bitcoin in the same month

4:54that you buy a billion or $2 billion of

4:56Bitcoin, we're still net buyers of

4:58Bitcoin. We're still net holders of

5:00Bitcoin, but the benefit to being able

5:03to fund with Bitcoin is

5:05we have the option to never sell a share

5:06of stock again, and that really rips the

5:09faces off of the shorts. And then, we

5:11also have the option to capture the tax

5:13credit. Cuz we have billions of dollars

5:16of tax credits that if we were to simply

5:19sell uh high basis Bitcoin, we would

5:21capture the tax benefit, and we could

5:24fund the dividend.

5:26>> So, why does that matter for the Bitcoin

5:28bottom? Why on earth are you talking

5:29about strategy for the fifth time this

5:31month, many of you are probably saying.

5:33Because for 2 years, the single biggest

5:36fear hanging over Bitcoin was a forced

5:38Saylor liquidation. The nightmare

5:40scenario where the biggest holder gets

5:41margin called and dumps billions of

5:44dollars into a thin market. Well, this

5:46week, you watched the largest sale in

5:48company history hit the tape and Bitcoin

5:51was green just 4 hours later. The

5:53overhang that everybody feared just got

5:55quantified, capped, and neutralized in

5:58real time. So, this death spiral thesis

6:01that I've been debunking for the last

6:02month didn't get argued down, it got

6:05tested live and it completely failed.

6:07Strategy can effectively sell large

6:09chunks of Bitcoin without killing the

6:10market. And here's why it's so important

6:13for Bitcoin's bottom this cycle. But

6:14real quick before you go any deeper, if

6:16you think that strategy selling Bitcoin

6:18marked the very bottom of the cycle,

6:20comment the word cycle down below. Just

6:22one word, cycle. And if this is your

6:23first time on the channel and you're

6:24getting something out of this, do me a

6:25favor and hit that subscribe button and

6:27ring the bell. It genuinely helps the

6:28channel a lot. Now, back into it. Now,

6:30here's the thing this sale actually

6:32revealed about Bitcoin and it's much

6:34bigger than one company. For 2 years,

6:36the loudest bear argument was that

6:38Bitcoin only goes up because one man

6:40keeps buying it, Michael Saylor. If you

6:41take away Saylor, the whole thing

6:43collapses. Well, this week, as I just

6:45mentioned, Saylor sold his biggest stack

6:47ever. And on the very same day, US spot

6:50Bitcoin ETFs, as you can see here,

6:52printed their first net inflow in weeks.

6:54$223 million into funds on July 2nd,

6:58which is the first positive flow since

7:00June 12th. The two largest forces in

7:02this entire market pulled in opposite

7:04directions on the same day. Strategy

7:06selling at a loss and the Bitcoin ETFs

7:08taking money in and price held right

7:11between them and closed green. Sit with

7:13what that means for just a second. You

7:15have the largest seller and the largest

7:17buyer going head-to-head and Bitcoin

7:19didn't break. That is the market telling

7:21you out loud that this asset is not

7:23being propped up by one buyer anymore.

7:25There is real structural demand sitting

7:28underneath these levels that doesn't

7:29care what Michael Saylor does on any

7:31given Monday. And that realization, that

7:33Bitcoin stands up on its own two feet,

7:35is one of the most bullish structural

7:37developments this cycle for anyone who

7:39is ever on on fence about buying. But

7:41standing up on its own is not the same

7:43as the bottom being in. So, let's get to

7:45the Bitcoin bottom because I understand

7:47that's why most of you clicked on this

7:49video. This is where the chain matters,

7:51and this is where I have to show you the

7:53thing that almost nobody watching

7:54Bitcoin is connecting to the chart. Link

7:56number one is oil. Link two is the

7:58Strait of Hormuz. So, just before I hit

8:00record, the United States revoked Iran's

8:02license to export oil after Iran struck

8:04three commercial vessels in the Strait

8:06of Hormuz. So, the strait, which

8:08represents 20% of the world's oil

8:09supply, is choking again. And as a

8:11result, Brent crude oil ripped 6% as you

8:14can see here, back above $75 for the

8:16first time in a month. And on top of all

8:18of that, the US Strategic Petroleum

8:20Reserve, which has been one of the major

8:22forces keeping gas prices so low, just

8:25fell to a 43-year low, which means that

8:27the cushion that would normally absorb

8:29this oil shock is thinner than it has

8:31been in four decades. Now, here's why a

8:33Bitcoiner or anybody watching this video

8:35has to care about some random shipping

8:37lane on the other side of the planet.

8:39Oil is the input cost of everything.

8:42When crude oil rips, inflation

8:43reignites. When inflation reignites, the

8:45Fed cannot cut rates. And Bitcoin, the

8:47most sensitive liquidity asset on Earth,

8:50does not get its real bull market until

8:52that liquidity spigot opens. That is

8:54links number three and four, inflation

8:56and the Fed, and the Strait of Hormuz

8:59controls both of them. I've said it on

9:00this channel for weeks, but the single

9:02biggest catalyst that could end this

9:04bear market early was the Strait of

9:05Hormuz opening. And it did open, but it

9:08only stayed open for two weeks before

9:10closing again. That is the single

9:12biggest headwind that Bitcoin is facing,

9:14preventing the bear market from ending

9:15in the next bull market beginning. That

9:18is the thing that can drag price lower

9:20before this turns. And it has nothing to

9:22do with anything wrong with Bitcoin.

9:25Now, here's the piece that cuts the

9:26other way. And this is the one that I

9:28actually want you to remember.

9:29Underneath all of this oil noise,

9:31inflation expectations for the next year

9:33just fell below 2% for the first time in

9:36three years, the lowest since the Fed

9:38cut rates all the way back in 2022. So,

9:40if you strip out the oil shock and the

9:42entire rate structure is pointing at

9:44cuts. Kevin Warsh, the brand new Fed

9:46chair, just effectively took rate hikes

9:48off the table and the market is now

9:50pricing the next Fed move as a rate cut

9:53and not a rate hike. The only thing

9:55standing between here and that pivot and

9:57Bitcoin's bear market bottom is the

9:59Strait of Hormuz. That is the whole

10:01macro setup in one sentence. Rate cuts

10:04are loaded in the chamber, but the

10:05Strait of Hormuz is the safety. So, put

10:08the chain together. Oil is the risk,

10:10Hormuz is the trigger, inflation is

10:12cooling underneath but vulnerable to

10:14that trigger, and the Fed is leaning

10:15toward cuts but frozen until the

10:18inflation picture clears. And that

10:19brings us to link five, the cycle. And

10:22this is where the bottom lives. Look at

10:24what Bitcoin has actually done this year

10:26because it is almost beat for beat

10:28mirroring the last cycle. In 2018,

10:31Bitcoin put in a low in February, a

10:33higher low in late March, a lower high

10:34in May at the 200-day moving average,

10:36and then it swept the February low in

10:38June. In 2026, Bitcoin put in a low in

10:40February, a higher low in late March, a

10:43lower high in May, and swept the

10:45February low in June. Same exact

10:47sequence, same months, and here's the

10:49part that should put a chill down your

10:51spine. The low that formed in the summer

10:53of 2018 was $5,700. The low that just

10:56formed 2 weeks ago was at $57,000.

10:59Exactly 10 times higher, same pattern,

11:02same month, same window. That's not a

11:04coincidence that you could just wave

11:06away. So, the question becomes, what

11:08happened next in 2018? Well, it got a

11:10relief rally in July. Exactly the kind

11:13of seven green day move that we're

11:15watching right now. And then it gave

11:17most of it back into the fall before

11:19putting in its final low later in the

11:21year. That is the road map we are on

11:23right now. A bounce in July, like we're

11:25seeing right now, does not mark the true

11:27bottom. It is the window of strength

11:28inside a larger window of weakness. And

11:31this is why I'm telling you that the

11:33bottom is close, but it's not fully in.

11:35So, when does Bitcoin actually bottom?

11:37Well, Bitcoin topped last October, and

11:39bear markets in this asset historically

11:41run about a year, which puts the target

11:43window for the true low somewhere

11:45between October and December of this

11:46year. 3 months out. And here's one

11:49trigger that confirms it is not on the

11:51Bitcoin chart at all. It's the S&P 500.

11:54Every prior cycle low in 2015, 2018,

11:572022, Bitcoin, interestingly enough, put

12:00in its bottom into or just after stocks

12:03started falling. And right now, the

12:05equity market is hiding something

12:07dangerous. So, you can see right here,

12:09the tech index is sitting near all-time

12:10highs, but underneath the surface, 59%

12:14of the stocks in it are already down

12:16more than 20% from their peak. Said

12:17differently, almost 60% of the main tech

12:20index in the United States is already in

12:22a bear market. A handful of AI chip

12:23names are carrying the entire index,

12:25while the majority of it is already in a

12:26bear market, but those names are

12:28starting to turn, too. Names like

12:30SanDisk and SpaceX are cracking. The AI

12:33trade looks like it's finally rolling

12:35over. And when that top finally gives

12:36way, history says that's the flush that

12:39sets the real Bitcoin bottom. So, here's

12:42the honest counterweight, because I owe

12:44you both sides of this story. The single

12:46most dangerous sentence in this entire

12:47market right now is there's one more leg

12:50down, and I'm no stranger to this. I've

12:52been saying it for weeks. That's what

12:53everyone says near a low. No Bitcoin

12:56bottom in history has ever formed

12:58without the majority of people

12:59overestimating how much downside was

13:01left. So, the more often people say we

13:03have one more leg down, even though I

13:04think we do, the more likely the true

13:06bottom is in. So, I want you to hold

13:08both of those scenarios at once. The

13:10cycle map says that we have one more

13:12flush until we find our true low

13:13sometime in the fall, but the on-chain

13:15data says that we're already standing on

13:17top of a generational floor, as you can

13:19see right here. This is the chart of the

13:20percentage of Bitcoin supply during each

13:22cycle that is still in profit, and it

13:24just hit the exact same level that has

13:26marked every cycle floor in Bitcoin's

13:28history. This is only the sixth time

13:30since 2011 that Bitcoin supply in profit

13:33has fallen this low. The last time was

13:35late 2022 with Bitcoin near $16,000.

13:38Over the following 2 years, it went up

13:408x. Roughly 45% of long-term holder

13:43supply is now sitting at a loss, which

13:45is the same zone reached at prior cycle

13:47bottoms. And those exact long-term

13:49holders, the wallets that have held

13:50longer than 155 days, the coldest, most

13:52patient money in the market, just

13:54flipped back into buying Bitcoin. Listen

13:56to that again. The people who have been

13:58right at every turn are buying this

14:00weakness while the tourists panic. Right

14:02now, Bitcoin has spent over 850 days

14:05with the price higher than it is today,

14:06which is its most in history. You're not

14:09looking at the top of anything. You're

14:10looking at compressed, coiled, deeply

14:13discounted supply moving from weak hands

14:14into strong ones. So, even if we're not

14:16exactly at the bottom, we're still

14:18extremely close to it. So, what exactly

14:20do you do with all this information? You

14:22do not try to pick the exact bottom.

14:24Nobody rings a bell at the low, except

14:26apparently Michael Saylor twice, but not

14:28when he's buying, when he's selling. You

14:30are in what I would call the DCA

14:32channel. This is the zone near the

14:33bottom where the correct move is to

14:35accumulate on a schedule and stop trying

14:37to outsmart the last 10% of the market.

14:39This is the range that we now find

14:41ourselves in, and whether or not we find

14:42a new low is irrelevant. The fact of the

14:44matter is that Bitcoin is close to it.

14:46If and when the stock market corrects

14:48into the fall and drags Bitcoin to one

14:50more low, you keep buying. If the street

14:52of removes reopens and the Fed cuts and

14:54this thing rips from here, well, you

14:56already own it, so it doesn't matter.

14:57You're not under allocated. The entire

14:59point of understanding the chain that I

15:00gave you at the start of the video is

15:02that you stop being surprised by any of

15:04the links in it. By the way, I just

15:06launched a community for serious Bitcoin

15:07holders called the Hard Money Room.

15:09Weekly live discussions with me and

15:10people who actually understand this at a

15:12high level. The link's in the

15:13description. So, let me bring this all

15:15the way back home. The largest holder of

15:17Bitcoin on Earth sold more than he ever

15:19has at a loss on purpose, and Bitcoin

15:22still went up. Which is the exact same

15:23fingerprint that he left at the bottom

15:25of the market in 2022. That is link one

15:27and it feeds the whole trend. Oil to

15:29Hormuz to inflation to the Fed to the

15:31cycle. The bottom is not a price that

15:33you're going to catch to the dollar. It

15:35is a window. It is a range. And that

15:37window opens as the stock market tops

15:39and the AI trade breaks somewhere in the

15:41back half of this year. People calling

15:43for a Bitcoin death spiral is dead. The

15:46myth that Bitcoin was being propped up

15:47by a single buyer is dead. And what's

15:50left is a 50% discount on the hardest

15:52money ever created sitting on a

15:54generational floor waiting on the Strait

15:56of Hormuz to reopen to continue going

15:58higher. So, if you want to understand

16:00why this whole setup exists, go watch my

16:01last video on the labor market where I

16:03broke down how the jobs picture is

16:05falling apart and why the Fed may be

16:06forced to print into a slowing economy.

16:09It's the other half of this exact thesis

16:10and I'll see you over there. Channel

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16:22the link in the description. I'll see

16:24you in the next one.