The Fed Just Triggered The Next Big Print

0:00Jerome Powell is out and America has a

0:02new central banker. For the first time

0:04in 8 years, someone new is in control of

0:06the money printer in the United States

0:08and we need to talk about it.

0:09>> The Senate Banking Committee just

0:11approved President Trump's Federal

0:13Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh. The vote 13

0:17in favor, 11 opposed. Warsh now heads

0:20for a full Senate vote.

0:21>> So, Jerome Powell is out, Kevin Warsh is

0:24in. He'll be confirmed by the full

0:25Senate in the coming days and take over

0:27as chair on May 15th. But, something

0:29unprecedented

0:31Actually, two things and they're going

0:33to shake the foundations of not only the

0:35Federal Reserve, but America as we know

0:37it. And both of them have major

0:39implications for your portfolio. Now,

0:41last Friday I made a video on this

0:42channel called The Big Print and in it I

0:45told you that the man who ran the US

0:46Treasury in 2008, Hank Paulson, went on

0:48Bloomberg and said that the country

0:50needs a bailout plan for the US

0:51Treasury. I told you that the bond

0:53market was telling us something the Fed

0:55wasn't ready to admit. And I told you

0:56that the next 90 days were the most

0:58important macro window of this point

1:00cycle. Well, things are escalating

1:02quickly. This is the direct sequel and

1:03by the end of this video you're going to

1:05understand exactly why what happened

1:07today is the break the glass plan being

1:09opened in real time and what it means

1:11for every asset that you own. Let's get

1:13into it. So, here's the first

1:15unprecedented thing. Today, the Federal

1:16Reserve voted 8 to 4 to hold rates. Four

1:19dissents. The last time the Fed had four

1:21dissents at a single meeting was October

1:231992, 33 years ago. Now, here's why that

1:27number matters. The Fed is an

1:28institution that runs on consensus. The

1:31chair's entire job before the meeting

1:33starts is to manufacture agreement so

1:35that the Fed speaks with one voice and

1:37the market doesn't get scared. But,

1:39Powell wasn't able to do it this time.

1:41He couldn't. And the four people who

1:43broke ranks broke ranks in opposite

1:45directions. You had three regional bank

1:46presidents who wanted the Fed to drop

1:48the easing bias entirely and stop

1:50telegraphing rate cuts and one governor

1:52went the other way and voted for an

1:54immediate rate cut. Hawks and a dove on

1:57the same vote on Powell's last press

1:59conference as chair. That is the Fed

2:01admitting on live television that there

2:03is utter chaos going on at that

2:04institution. It doesn't know what it's

2:06supposed to do anymore. And that

2:08admission in front of the entire bond

2:10market, in front of every institutional

2:11allocator on earth, is the exact moment

2:14that risk gets repriced. Because if the

2:15Fed doesn't know, the market has to

2:17figure it out on its own. As you can see

2:19right here, this is the highest number

2:21of disagreements that we have had at a

2:22Federal Reserve meeting in well over 30

2:25years. And here is the second

2:26unprecedented thing. After the meeting,

2:28Jerome Powell announced that he's not

2:30leaving.

2:31>> After my term as chair ends on May 15, I

2:34will continue to serve as a governor for

2:35a period of time

2:37to be determined. You know, my my

2:39concern is really about the series of

2:41legal attacks on the Fed which threaten

2:44our ability to conduct monetary policy

2:46without considering political factors.

2:47These legal actions by the

2:49administration are unprecedented in our

2:51113-year history. And there are ongoing

2:54threats uh of additional such actions. I

2:56I worry that these attacks are battering

2:59the institution.

2:59>> What would you say to the criticism that

3:02by remaining on the board, you're

3:03actually taking a political act in

3:04denying uh President Trump the majority

3:07of the board, which as president he

3:08would have if you left?

3:10>> I don't see that at all. As I mentioned,

3:13you know, I'm literally staying because

3:14of the actions that have been taken. I

3:16don't see how this will interfere. I'm

3:18not My intention is not to interfere.

3:20>> His term as chair ends May 15th, but

3:22instead of passing the baton, he's

3:24staying on the Board of Governors. And

3:26this is only the second time in 113

3:28years that a Fed chair has stayed on

3:31after his chairmanship ended. And the

3:33last time that it happened, the sitting

3:34president asked for it, but this time

3:36Trump did not ask, but Powell decided

3:38unilaterally. Now, watch how the

3:40Treasury Secretary responded. Take a

3:42listen.

3:43>> I will say

3:44highly unusual what chair

3:46what chair former chair soon-to-be

3:48former chair Powell did. And Larry, to

3:51be clear, the last time that a ferret

3:54Fed chair stayed on the board, it was at

3:56the request of the president. And I I

3:58think one thing [clears throat] I can

4:00promise you is President Trump did not

4:01request for Jay Powell to stay. I think

4:04it's highly unusual for someone who says

4:06he's an institutionalist and cares about

4:09norms at the Fed. This is a violation of

4:13all Federal Reserve norms. And I got to

4:15tell you, also, Larry, I think it is an

4:18insult to Kevin Warsh to think that if

4:22these other Republican nominees do not

4:25care about the institution of the Fed

4:27and that he alone can,

4:30you know, maintain the integrity of the

4:31Fed.

4:32>> That's the sitting Treasury Secretary on

4:34live television calling the soon-to-be

4:36former Fed chair ungentlemanly, saying

4:38that his decision flies in the face of

4:40every Federal Reserve norm, and saying

4:42that he's insulting the other Republican

4:44nominees by implying that he alone can

4:46maintain the integrity of the Fed. This

4:48is a massive power struggle inside the

4:51most important monetary institution in

4:53the world on live TV the same week that

4:55the bond market is breaking. So, put

4:58that picture in your head. A four-way

4:59split, a chairman refusing to leave the

5:01building, and a Treasury Secretary

5:03publicly attacking him. All while a new

5:05chair is walking in on May 15th with the

5:07likely plan of cutting rates and

5:09expanding the balance sheet. And

5:11underneath all of it, the bond market is

5:13doing something that should be on every

5:14front page in America. Take a look right

5:16here. This is what happened to the

5:17Treasury yields today. You can see there

5:19is a major sell-off going on. Right

5:21here, the 30-year Treasury yield touched

5:235% today, which is the first time since

5:25last July. And we're knocking on the

5:27door of an 18-year high. So, I know that

5:30the bond market can be boring, but this

5:32is why this is actually the most

5:33important number on your screen right

5:35now. The US government has $39 trillion

5:38in debt. And this year, the Treasury

5:40collects roughly $5 trillion in taxes

5:42and spends roughly $7 trillion. Of that

5:45$7 trillion, $1 trillion is interest

5:47payments. So, one out of every five

5:49federal dollars goes to interest. And as

5:51old debt rolls into new debt at higher

5:53yields, that interest expense compounds.

5:56So, every dollar of new interest becomes

5:58new debt that has to be financed at a

6:00higher rate. The ratio of our debt to

6:02our GDP is at 122%, which is already

6:05higher than during World War II. The

6:07math literally does not work at these

6:10yields, not for any extended period. It

6:12risks the United States going bankrupt.

6:15And this is exactly what Hank Paulson

6:16was warning about last week when he said

6:18the country needs a break-the-glass

6:20plan. The man doesn't go on TV and use

6:22those words by accident. He ran the

6:24Treasury during the 2008 collapse. He

6:26created the money printing playbook. He

6:29knows what an emergency plan looks like,

6:31and he knows when it's needed. And

6:32today, the bond market is telling you

6:34that he was right. Now, layer in oil.

6:37Three weeks ago, crude oil was at $75,

6:39and today it's at $108.

6:42That's a 44% move in just 3 weeks after

6:45crashing from a high of over 120. And if

6:47oil holds here for any length of time,

6:50as I mentioned in prior videos, every

6:52input cost in the modern economy goes

6:54up. From trucking to manufacturing,

6:56food, gas at the pump, you see inflation

6:58reaccelerate, consumer demand crack, and

7:01you get the worst possible setup for any

7:04central bank, an inflationary recession,

7:06stagflation in plain English. And in a

7:08stagflationary setup, the Fed has no

7:11clean choice. If you cut rates,

7:13inflation gets worse. If you hold rates,

7:15which is what we're doing now, the

7:16economy breaks under the weight of its

7:18own debt service, which is exacerbated

7:20by the fact that the

7:22that the bond market is selling off. So,

7:24there's only one path that lets the

7:25Treasury keep functioning, and it's

7:27called money printing. If you're a

7:29channel member, welcome. You're watching

7:31this 24 hours before everyone else.

7:33Before everyone else watching this on

7:34Thursday night, channel members actually

7:36got this video 24 hours early. They were

7:38the first to hear about Powell's exit,

7:40the four-to-send vote, and what it means

7:41for their portfolios. So, if you want

7:43early access to videos like this one,

7:45hit the join button down below. Let's

7:47keep going because this is where the

7:49entire setup snaps into focus. Kevin

7:51Warsh, the man that Trump nominated, the

7:53guy who cleared committee today, and the

7:55guy who's about to be confirmed and take

7:56over on May 15th, officially he's a

7:59hawk. Officially he has said he wants to

8:01keep rates where they are and be data

8:03dependent. And he has said that money

8:05printing is like reverse Robin Hood,

8:06stealing from the poor to give to the

8:08rich. He's spent the last 2 years saying

8:10that the Fed waited too long on

8:12inflation and that the balance sheet is

8:14too big. That's his public posture. But,

8:16here's what's actually in his

8:17confirmation testimony in writing. It's

8:19actually the opposite of what he has

8:21said. Warsh told the Senate, on the

8:23record, that he doesn't think the

8:25inflation statistics are accurate. He

8:27suggested using a different measure of

8:29inflation, which throws out all outlier

8:31prices, meaning the prices that are

8:33extremely high and drag the index up.

8:35And currently, the number that he's

8:37suggesting to use as inflation is

8:39significantly lower than the headline

8:41CPI. Read that again. The incoming Fed

8:44chair is on the record saying the

8:46inflation numbers that everyone is using

8:48to justify higher rates are wrong and

8:50that the real number is much lower.

8:52That's not the position of a hawk. Once

8:55again, Kevin Warsh is trying to create

8:57an intellectual setup in order to

8:58justify cutting rates despite high

9:01inflation. Now, layer in the second

9:03piece. I mentioned this on the last Big

9:05Print video. Warsh has already been

9:07talking publicly for months about AI

9:09productivity gains. His thesis is that

9:11AI is going to drive a massive

9:13productivity boom that lets the economy

9:15run hotter without inflation. And that

9:18gives him a second convenient

9:19justification to cut rates. So, he's not

9:22actually cutting because the data says

9:24cut. He is cutting because in his view,

9:26the data is wrong and AI will let him

9:28cut without paying the inflation price.

9:31His inflation argument says that real

9:33inflation is actually much lower and his

9:35AI productivity argument says that the

9:37US growth ceiling is much higher. Both

9:39of those move in the same direction and

9:41both are very convenient political cover

9:43to bring rates down hard and fast

9:46without apology.

9:47It's very clear that Scott Bessent, the

9:49head of the US Treasury, is calling the

9:51shots. Kevin Warsh, the brand new Fed

9:53chair, unlike Jerome Powell, is going to

9:55cut rates because he has to. He has to

9:58in order to reduce government interest

10:00expenses. Now, whether Kevin Warsh's

10:02first rate cut comes at an emergency

10:03meeting as soon as he's nominated or at

10:05a meeting this summer makes very little

10:07difference. The reality is the direction

10:09is locked in and rates are going lower.

10:11Now, here's where the bond market

10:13becomes the entire story. Warsh can cut

10:15rates on the front end of the curve. So,

10:17he'll get the two-year and the five-year

10:19down, but the long end, the 10-year and

10:21the 30-year, those aren't controlled by

10:23the Fed. Those are controlled by the

10:24bond market's view of long-term

10:26inflation, long-term debt

10:28sustainability, and long-term confidence

10:29in the institution. So, if Warsh cuts

10:32aggressively while oil is at $108 and

10:35headline inflation is still alive, while

10:37three of his own committee members are

10:39publicly screaming that cutting rates is

10:41wrong, then you will see a massive dump

10:43in the long end of the US bond market.

10:45You'll see yields skyrocket. And that is

10:47the moment that the system breaks. And

10:49right now, you're witnessing the early

10:50cracks. Because if the Fed cuts and the

10:53long end goes up, the Fed hasn't

10:55actually eased monetary policy, they've

10:57tightened it while losing all

10:59credibility on inflation in the process.

11:01So, what do they do? They break the

11:03glass. They print the money to buy long

11:05bonds directly. The Fed steps into the

11:07bond market and buys 10-years and

11:0930-years until the yields are back where

11:11they want them. The way the Fed locked

11:13the long bond during World War II,

11:15during 2008, yield curve control, the

11:18break-the-glass plan. In other words,

11:20printing money out of thin air in order

11:21to buy US Treasuries directly from banks

11:24with freshly printed money. Big print

11:26number one was the global financial

11:28crisis, $3.6 trillion dollars six years.

11:31Big print number two was COVID, $5

11:34trillion over 18 months. And big print

11:37three is the one setting up right now.

11:39And I think it'll be the largest of the

11:40three. The bond market is bigger. The

11:42federal debt is 40% larger than it was

11:45at the end of COVID. And most

11:46importantly, the political pressure to

11:48keep yields down, money cheap, and asset

11:50prices rising is higher than it's ever

11:52been. None of you own enough hard assets

11:55going into this. Now, I want to address

11:58the bear case directly because it's a

11:59serious one. There are smart traders

12:01looking at the same data and arguing the

12:03opposite. The argument goes like this.

12:05Trump and Besant didn't wait around.

12:07They moved on tariffs, on the Fed, on

12:09policy. And now that it's locked in,

12:11they don't need to care about the bond

12:13market. They can let it sell off. That

12:15would cause the US dollar to get

12:16stronger. That would cause gold to hold

12:18its place. And most risk assets would

12:20get repriced lower before they get

12:22repriced higher. That is the steel man

12:24for the bear case. And there's a real

12:26risk, but here's why I think it doesn't

12:27change the destination, only the path to

12:29get there. Even in the bear case, the

12:31math on the federal debt does not

12:33change. The Treasury has to issue

12:35trillions of dollars of this new debt

12:36this year and next year regardless.

12:39Every percentage point of yield on that

12:41new debt is hundreds of billions of

12:43dollars in new interest expense. There

12:45is no political will to absorb that. So,

12:48if the bond market sells off like it is

12:50right now, the Fed steps in. And if it

12:52steps in early, that's stage one of the

12:54big print. If it waits, the sell-off is

12:56bigger and the big print is bigger when

12:58it comes. Either way, the balance sheet

13:01expands. The only question is when. Now,

13:03let's talk about Bitcoin because this is

13:06the entire reason the asset exists.

13:08Bitcoin is chaos insurance. Every single

13:11thing I just described, a fractured Fed,

13:13a chair refusing to leave, and a

13:14Treasury secretary publicly attacking

13:16him, all while the bond market sells off

13:18into the stratosphere. Every single one

13:20of those things is chaos. And every

13:22single one of them is bullish for the

13:23asset that has no central bank, no

13:25chair, no committee, and no political

13:27cycle. I've mentioned this before, but

13:29you could see on this chart right here,

13:30in the last seven major macro crises of

13:32this century, Bitcoin has been the best

13:35performing asset from the moment of peak

13:37chaos through the next 60 days. Every

13:40single time. Not gold, not equities, not

13:42the dollar, Bitcoin. So, where are we

13:45right now? Well, Bitcoin is trading

13:46around $76,000 as you could see behind

13:49me. It's already up 21% off of its

13:51February low, and ETF inflows have been

13:53positive in 14 of the last 20 trading

13:56days, which means that institutional

13:57money is buying the dip. Long-term

13:59holders have been sitting on their

14:00largest collective position in Bitcoin's

14:02history. And every major price level

14:05that bears would need to break to call

14:06this cycle over is well below what we're

14:08trading at today. So, in plain English,

14:11the structural setup for Bitcoin going

14:12into the Walsh era is the strongest it's

14:14ever been at this stage of any cycle.

14:17And the macro tailwind hasn't even

14:19arrived yet. If Walsh cuts at his first

14:21meeting after May 15th, even something

14:24small, that is the green light for

14:25Bitcoin and every other asset. If this

14:28happens, Bitcoin won't be trading at

14:30$76,000 in July. It'll be trading at a

14:33number that most people watching this

14:34video right now will say is impossible.

14:37And that's how Bitcoin always trades

14:38when liquidity returns. It's impossible

14:40until it's the new floor. So, we have

14:42three paths, but one destination. Number

14:45one, Kevin Walsh cuts and Bitcoin

14:47re-rates higher immediately. Number two,

14:49the bond market refuses to cooperate, it

14:51sells off even more than it is now, and

14:53the Fed starts buying bonds with freshly

14:55printed money, expanding the balance

14:56sheet by trillions, and Bitcoin re-rates

14:59explosively. And scenario three, even in

15:02the bear case where stocks and bonds

15:04both sell off first, Bitcoin's role as

15:06chaos insurance deepens. Sure, in the

15:08near term you might see some pain, but

15:10it would be the first asset to recover.

15:12You would see ETF flows accelerate, and

15:13Bitcoin re-rates structurally before the

15:16policy response even arrives. Three

15:18paths, same exact destination. Now, let

15:21me bring this home. Last Friday, I told

15:23you that Hank Paulson said the country

15:24needs a break-the-glass plane. And this

15:26week, we're watching them open the case.

15:29The Powell era ended today with the most

15:30divided Fed vote in 33 years. A sitting

15:33chair is refusing to leave, and the

15:35Treasury Secretary is publicly attacking

15:38him on live television. We have a bond

15:40market selling off to a massive degree,

15:41touching its highest yields in 18 years.

15:44Oil has spiked once again to $108, and a

15:46brand new Fed chair is walking into the

15:48building with one explicit mandate: to

15:50cut rates, whether or not the data

15:52justifies it. This is the big prints.

15:55That is what's coming. If you want the

15:56full setup that pointed to this exact

15:58moment, watch last Friday's Big Print

16:00video on this channel. I broke down the

16:02four catalysts that called this in

16:03advance, and I'll see you over there.

16:05And of course, hit the join button down

16:06below to support the channel and become

16:08a member, and book a 101 session at the

16:10link in the description. I'll see you in

16:12the next one.