Bitcoin Is About To Make Everyone Look Stupid

0:00If you own Bitcoin, this is the worst it

0:01has felt in over a decade. Not the worst

0:04price, but the worst feeling. Because

0:06Bitcoin is sitting at $73,000 right now,

0:09down 5% this month, 15% on the year, and

0:12down 32% over the last 12 months. And on

0:15Wednesday, it fell under $73,000 in the

0:18span of an hour. But at the same time,

0:20the S&P 500 just closed at a record high

0:23for the ninth month in a row, while AI

0:25stocks doubled in weeks, while gold ran

0:2736% on the year, and silver tagged new

0:29highs. Every single asset on Earth is

0:32green, every single one, except for the

0:34one that you're holding. And that's the

0:35part that actually hurts. It's not that

0:37Bitcoin is down, it's that Bitcoin is

0:38down while everything else on Earth is

0:40at or near an all-time high at the same

0:42time. The opportunity cost is staring at

0:44you on every chart, and the temptation

0:47right now, the thing that almost

0:48everyone watching this is feeling, is to

0:50capitulate, to sell the boring red

0:52thing, and to go chase the green things

0:54that are working. I'm going to make the

0:55case that that instinct is exactly

0:58backwards, and that the reason Bitcoin

0:59is the only thing bleeding is the single

1:01most important signal in this entire

1:03market. But I'm not going to sugarcoat

1:05the near term for you. The summer ahead

1:06is going to be choppy. It's going to

1:08test you, and a lot of people are going

1:10to get shaken out at the bottom the way

1:11that they always do. So, here's what I'm

1:13going to walk you through. And by the

1:14end of this video, you're going to

1:15understand exactly why the one red asset

1:18on your screen is the only one telling

1:19the truth. First, the three levels

1:21Bitcoin just lost, and the exact

1:23downside map that follows from losing

1:25them. Because we've been tracking these

1:27on the channel for months, and they just

1:28broke. Second, why Bitcoin is bleeding

1:31while everything else rips. And third,

1:33the one piece of data that is only

1:34flashed three times in Bitcoin's

1:36history, and what happened to the price

1:38every single time it did. Let's get into

1:40it. So, here's the spine of this entire

1:42video. I want you to hold these three

1:44numbers in your head because we're going

1:45to come back to them three times before

1:47the video is over. These are the three

1:49lines that decide whether the bear

1:50market is over. The first is the

1:52short-term holder cost basis, which is

1:54the average price every buyer from the

1:56last 5 months paid to buy their Bitcoin.

1:59And that's sitting at $78,000.

2:01Next we have the true market mean, which

2:02is the cost basis of all actively

2:04transacting supply. Stay with me here.

2:07This is the line that historically

2:08divides bull markets and bear markets,

2:10and that sits at $78,300.

2:13And the 200-day moving average, which is

2:14above them, I've said it on this channel

2:16over and over, if Bitcoin reclaims those

2:18levels and holds, the bear is likely

2:21done. But given the fact that it has

2:22lost all three, the bear market is

2:24clearly not over. So, 2 weeks ago in the

2:27last video, we watched Bitcoin fail at

2:29the 200-day moving average. It got

2:31rejected, and that was the warning. This

2:33week it did something worse. It dropped

2:35below the other two. It's now trading

2:37under the short-term holder cost basis

2:39and under the true market mean at the

2:41same time. Every buyer from the last 5

2:43months is now underwater. So, the single

2:46most price-sensitive cohort in the

2:48entire market is now sitting on a loss,

2:50and that cohort is always the first to

2:52panic on a break lower and sell their

2:54coins. So, let me show you what that

2:56actually means for price, because this

2:57is the part that matters for your

2:59positioning. $75,000 is the crucial

3:02level that Bitcoin just lost. And it's

3:04the line that the entire range that we

3:06spent the month of May in was built on.

3:08We had more than $8 billion of dealer

3:10negative gamma stacked at that strike

3:12into the monthly expiry, which just

3:14means that any move through that level

3:16gets mechanically amplified. So, that's

3:18one of the reasons we so violently broke

3:20below it. And below it, the next real

3:22level is $65,000, which is the bottom of

3:25the bull market support band. If we lose

3:2665, you're looking at the 200-week

3:28moving average at $61,635.

3:32Now, here's the one piece of good news

3:34buried in that map of all of the things

3:36Bitcoin might hit on the way down. And

3:38it's the reason that I'm not panicking.

3:40That 200-week moving average has been

3:43the floor in every single bear market in

3:45Bitcoin's history. Every single one. And

3:47on the rare occasions that the price has

3:49dipped below it, as you can see here, it

3:51is only dipped slightly and only very

3:54briefly. So, if we do make new lows this

3:56cycle, the history says that they won't

3:58be very far from the levels that we've

4:00already seen. The floor is real, it's

4:02always held. That is the open loop. Hold

4:04on to that because I'm going to come

4:05back to it later in the video. By the

4:07way, real quick, before you go any

4:08further, I want to know who is actually

4:10positioned for this. If you have a plan

4:11for if we hit $65,000, comment the word

4:14ready below. Just one word. It helps the

4:17channel a ton and as all of you know, I

4:19read and reply to all of them. Okay, so

4:21Bitcoin just lost those levels. The map

4:23points lower and the near term is

4:25probably going to be very rough. Now,

4:26let me reframe this entire thing because

4:29the question that almost everyone is

4:30asking is the wrong question. The

4:32question is not why is Bitcoin

4:34underperforming, the question is why is

4:37everything else going up? And the answer

4:39to that question is the point of this

4:40entire video. So, let's get into it. The

4:42S&P 500 is at a record high, but priced

4:45in gold, the S&P 500 has gone almost

4:48nowhere in a decade. Priced in Bitcoin

4:50over the long run, it's actually gone

4:52backwards. A huge chunk of the stock

4:54market gains that people are celebrating

4:56right now actually isn't productivity,

4:58it's just the dollar going down and

5:00making everything priced in dollars look

5:02like it's going up. So, what do I mean

5:03by this? Well, when money loses value

5:06every single year, you cannot simply

5:08save it. You are forced to become a

5:10part-time hedge fund manager just to

5:12keep the wealth you already earned. So,

5:13everyone piles into the fastest moving

5:16thing that they can find because they

5:17desperately need to outrun the printer.

5:19And right now, that thing is AI. And

5:22look, AI is real. I use it every single

5:25day. You use it every single day. This

5:27technology is going to change the world,

5:28but the speculative frenzy stacked on

5:31top of it is not necessarily entirely

5:33about technology anymore. It's about the

5:35money. The bets get bigger and the time

5:37horizons get shorter and ultimately,

5:39people have shiny object syndrome.

5:41They're not buying because they studied

5:42the balance sheets, they're buying

5:43because it's the hottest horse and they

5:45need to outrun inflation. So, why is

5:47Bitcoin the only thing that's not

5:49playing that game? Well, here's the

5:51mechanism. I want you to understand this

5:52clearly. US institutions are right now

5:55selling Bitcoin to rotate into AI and

5:58semiconductors. Why do I say this so

6:00confidently? Well, you could see it

6:01directly in the data. This chart right

6:03here shows the Coinbase premium. This

6:05has gone negative, which means that

6:06American institutional desks are net

6:09sellers of Bitcoin. On Tuesday, we also

6:11had a single dark pool block trade hit

6:14BlackRock's IBIT for $1.3 billion, which

6:16is the largest single trade of the spot

6:19Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock in its

6:20history of 29 million shares, or roughly

6:2316,500

6:25Bitcoin in one print, which again is the

6:28largest since the fund's inception. And

6:30the next day, IBIT saw its second worst

6:32outflow day ever at $528 million.

6:36So, the fast money is rotating out of

6:38the long-duration asset and into the

6:40thing that happens to be popular right

6:42now. And the on-chain data confirms the

6:43exact same level of buyer exhaustion.

6:46And for the first time since March, the

6:4830-day net flow to exchanges has flipped

6:50positive, plus 103,000 Bitcoin at its

6:53peak. This means coins are coming back

6:55onto exchanges, which is supply arriving

6:58to be sold. At the same time, you have

7:00stablecoins draining off of exchanges at

7:02a record pace, which is buying power

7:05leaving the building. So, you have

7:06supply showing up and demand walking

7:09out. That is a double risk-off signal,

7:11and it's exactly what a tired market

7:13looks like. Here's the thing, though.

7:15None of that tells you is broken. It

7:17tells you Bitcoin is being treated as a

7:19source of funds while the casino is open

7:21down the street. And that brings me to

7:23the real reason that this matters, and

7:24this is the thing that almost nobody

7:25watching Bitcoin is connecting to the

7:27chart. Bitcoin is not falling in a

7:30vacuum. Gold is rolling over, too. You

7:32have commodities wobbling. $375 billion

7:35got wiped off of precious metals just

7:37yesterday in a single 30-minute stretch.

7:39So, either every real-world

7:41inflation-sensitive asset on the planet

7:43is simultaneously losing its mind or the

7:46stock market is the one that's wrong.

7:48And I think Bitcoin is doing what it's

7:49always done best. It's functioning as

7:51the world's smoke alarm. Because look at

7:53what's actually happening underneath the

7:55record stock market highs. CPI is

7:58running at 3.8%. We talked about this a

8:00couple of videos ago. This is the

8:01hottest inflation has run since 2023.

8:04And just yesterday, PCE, which is the

8:07Fed's own preferred gauge of inflation,

8:09also hit 3% and is rising for the second

8:12straight month away from their 2%

8:14target, not toward it. You also have

8:16PPI, which is producer inflation, at 6%.

8:19Energy inflation at 17.9%. Gasoline up

8:2228%. The Cleveland Fed is predicting

8:24next month's CPI inflation printing

8:274.18%.

8:29So, it looks like it's going to get a

8:30lot worse this summer. We have now had

8:3262 consecutive months of inflation above

8:35the Fed's 2% target. And the engine of

8:38all of this, as I've said numerous

8:39times, is the Strait of Hormuz, which

8:42remains closed. With WTI crude up 54%

8:45year-over-year and the US burning

8:47through its strategic petroleum reserve

8:49trying to keep the price down at a

8:50record pace. And it's about to fall

8:52below the Biden era lows within days.

8:54And once it exhausts itself, prices will

8:57skyrocket even further. Now, connect all

8:59of this to the American consumer because

9:01this is where it gets dangerous. Real

9:03wages just turned negative for the first

9:05time since 2023. Inflation is rising

9:08faster than wages, which means that the

9:10average worker's purchasing power, the

9:12money you are earning from your job and

9:13what it can actually get you, is

9:15actively shrinking. The personal savings

9:17rate just collapsed to 2.6%.

9:20Let me tell you the only other times in

9:21the entire history of this statistic,

9:23going back to the '50s, that it's been

9:25this low. The 2 and 1/2 years running

9:27into the Great Recession in 2008 and the

9:29first three quarters of the Great

9:30Recession itself. The middle of 2022,

9:33the third worst year for markets in 50

9:34years, and right now. That is the

9:37company we are keeping as far as how bad

9:39the economy is today. And here's the

9:41part that should make every single stock

9:43market bull pause and reflect. Every

9:45single time inflation has crossed as

9:47high as it is today, the market has

9:49crashed by an average of 30% over the

9:52following 1 to 24 months. Every big one

9:55happened in exactly this environment.

9:57Down 47% in 2000, down 55% in 2008. The

10:01S&P at a record high while real wages

10:04fall, savings collapse, and inflation

10:06re-accelerates is not strength, it's the

10:08calm in the smoke detector right before

10:11it goes off. Bitcoin just already smells

10:14the smoke, but the stock market is still

10:16asleep. Now, I know what some of you are

10:18thinking right now because I would be

10:19thinking it, too. This is a good theory,

10:21Joe, but how do I know this isn't just

10:22you talking your book at the bottom?

10:24That's fair. So, I'm not just going to

10:26tell you, I'm going to show you the

10:27receipts, and this is the third thing I

10:29promised you at the beginning of the

10:30video. There's a metric called the

10:32sell-side risk ratio. Basically, what it

10:34is you take all of the realized profit

10:37in Bitcoin and all the realized loss and

10:39divide it by the total realized value.

10:41In plain English, it just measures how

10:43much financial force investors are

10:45applying to try to move Bitcoin. And

10:47right now, that number has collapsed to

10:49a level that is only reached one other

10:51time in the modern era. I'm not being

10:53hyperbolic. The late stage of the 2023

10:56bear market. Meaning, the panic sellers

10:58are already gone. The holders have the

11:00exact allocation they want. So, nobody

11:02is applying any force to the network at

11:04all. It's a ghost town. Here is why that

11:07is the receipt. Look at what Bitcoin did

11:09the last few times almost nobody cared

11:11about it. In 2018, sell-side risk hit

11:14those lows around $4,000. Bitcoin then

11:17went to $14,000. In 2020, it hit those

11:20lows around $5,000, then Bitcoin went to

11:22$69,000.

11:24And in 2023, it hit these lows around

11:26$26,000, and Bitcoin went to $125,000.

11:31Each time, peak apathy was not the end,

11:34it was the setup for the bull market

11:36that followed. And today, that same

11:38ghost town reading is printing at

11:40$76,000.

11:41So, like those prior times, of course,

11:43it might take some time before the bull

11:45market kicks into gear, and we might

11:47drop further. But, you can't ignore

11:49historical precedent. The Fear & Greed

11:51Index is at 22, which is deep in extreme

11:54fear. So, sentiment is the worst it's

11:56been in over a decade, and historically,

11:58that exact feeling the one that you have

12:00right now is the feeling that flushes

12:02out the weak hands right before the

12:04move. And real quick, since you made it

12:06this far into the data, I want to ask

12:08you something. The vast majority of

12:09people watching this right now are not

12:11subscribed. So, if you're getting

12:13something out of this, hit subscribe,

12:14drop a like, and turn on the bell with

12:16notifications. It genuinely helps the

12:18channel a ton, and it's the only reason

12:19I get to keep breaking these down every

12:21single week. Okay, so, what does this

12:23actually mean for you sitting there

12:25watching your one red asset in a sea of

12:27green? It means you're early to the only

12:30asset that runs on math instead of

12:32mania, and is an actual smoke alarm for

12:35global liquidity and risk-taking

12:37conditions. And being early almost

12:39always feels exactly like being wrong. I

12:42want to be honest with you about the

12:43other side of this, too, because the

12:44setup is not guaranteed. The bear case

12:46is very real. As I've mentioned

12:48previously, if the Strait of Hormuz

12:50stays closed through the summer, oil

12:51stays high, inflation runs hot, yields

12:54keep climbing, and the Fed gets boxed

12:55in, Bitcoin can absolutely see those

12:58lower levels first. And inflation and a

13:00recession is not out of the question.

13:02The 180-day realized price change just

13:04turned negative, the same red zone that

13:06marked 2018 and 2022. So, I'm not going

13:09to pretend that risk isn't on the table.

13:11It is. But, here's the forward case, and

13:13it rests on three forces that all point

13:15in the same direction. Force number one,

13:17the bond market is going to hand the

13:19Federal Reserve an excuse to print an

13:21obscene amount of money. Because there's

13:24a $39 trillion dollar hole that can only

13:26be serviced one way. US money supply

13:28growth just hit 4% on a 6-month basis,

13:31which is the fastest rate of money

13:33printing in 4 years. So, the printer is

13:35already warming up. Number two, the war

13:38ends eventually. The Strait of Hormuz

13:40reopens eventually, and the moment it

13:42does, oil gets crushed, yields fall, the

13:44dollar softens, and every asset that's

13:47been waiting on that resolution rips

13:48higher with Bitcoin at the front of the

13:50line as it always is. And number three,

13:53Bitcoin priced against money supply is

13:56the most undervalued that it's ever been

13:58in its entire history. I'm going to make

13:59a video on this soon. Not this cycle,

14:02ever. So, while everyone is piling into

14:05the AI boom, the one asset that's

14:07designed to absorb infinite printing is

14:09on sale. You have three independent

14:11forces, the printer, the war resolution,

14:13and the liquidity discount. They don't

14:15need each other. Any one of them moves

14:17Bitcoin on its own, but all three are

14:19loading at once. So, let me bring this

14:21home. Remember the three levels from the

14:23top of this video. We have the

14:25short-term holder cost basis, the true

14:26market mean, and the 200-day moving

14:28average above them. Bitcoin,

14:30unfortunately, lost all three of them,

14:32and that's why this summer is going to

14:33test you. But, remember the other line,

14:35the one that I told you to hold on to,

14:37the 200-week moving average at $61,600,

14:41the floor that has held in every bear

14:43market Bitcoin has ever had. The people

14:45getting shaken out between here and

14:47there this summer are reading the fast

14:49money scoreboard, the one priced in

14:51broken money, the one that is chasing

14:52the AI craze. The people who understand

14:55what they're holding are reading the

14:57slow money. The ocean of capital sitting

14:59in assets engineered to lose value, all

15:01of it eventually forced to look for

15:03higher ground, and there's only one

15:05asset with a hard cap on the supply.

15:07Ultimately, Bitcoin is a long-term

15:09savings technology in a world that can't

15:11stop printing money. The near term is

15:13noise at worst and a gift at best, but

15:16the long term is the entire game, and

15:18unless the United States government

15:19finds a way to stop creating trillions

15:21of new dollars to keep the economy

15:23breathing, Bitcoin is going up forever.

15:25It rewards the patient and it punishes

15:27the people chasing the fastest horse.

15:29Ask a gold bug who watched every other

15:31asset rip for decades before their turn

15:33finally came. We're not even a year

15:35removed from Bitcoin's last all-time

15:36high. So, it's important to keep

15:38perspective. If you want the full

15:40picture on why the money printer is the

15:41only end game here, watch my last video

15:44on the 1.2 trillion-dollar Bitcoin plan

15:46the US government is quietly building

15:48toward because that's the other half of

15:50this exact thesis. And I'll see you over

15:52there. Hit the join button down below to

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15:59And book a one-on-one session with me at

16:01the link in the description. I'll see

16:02you in the next one.