Ed Sheeran Gaza Controversy, AI Fears and Piddington Immigration Protest - Off the Fence

0:00Hello everybody and welcome to this

0:02week's Off The Fence with me Konstantin

0:04and Keshin and of course my trigonometry

0:06co-host Francis Foster, our friends

0:09Winston Marshall of the Winston Marshall

0:11show and Tom Slater from Spiked. Welcome

0:13guys.

0:14Uh we're going to get straight into it.

0:16Uh this week our three stories are going

0:19to be the Ed Sheeran opening act

0:21dropping out over the free Palestine uh

0:24thing. We will talk about that. We will

0:26talk of course about the warnings from

0:28various AI inside us that AI is going to

0:31kill us all. Uh and um

0:34you know, more relaxed uh Pidlington in

0:37England has voted to leave uh the United

0:40Kingdom in a referendum cuz they don't

0:42want uh migrants uh in a camp right

0:44around the corner. Uh let's get straight

0:47into our first story which is of course

0:50Ed Sheeran and his opening act dropping

0:53out after free Palestine controversy.

0:55Francis Foster, take it away.

0:58>> Well, this is Konstantin is very much a

1:00story that has captured the cultural

1:02zeitgeist. So, I'll lead you through

1:03everything that's actually happened. Uh

1:06this involves a artist or an artist

1:09called Macklemore who is an Irish rap

1:11artist who was booked to open for Ed

1:14Sheeran. He went on uh Ed Sheeran's show

1:18to open and uh he did his act but he

1:21also delivered a speech about Palestine,

1:24the Palestinian struggle in which he

1:26said the words free Palestine.

1:29Now, the New York Post alleges that he

1:33there was then a call with Robert Kraft

1:36in which it was asked him not to do

1:39that. Now, this is an allegation. We

1:41don't know if it's true or not. He then

1:43went on a couple of days later and then

1:45proceeded to double down on this and

1:49talked about, you know, the Columbia

1:50students describing them as their

1:52actions as heroic for standing up for an

1:54oppressed people.

1:56Now,

1:57what subsequently happened is there was

2:00a conversation between Robert Kraft and

2:03Ed Sheeran in which

2:05Robert Kraft, by the way, is the owner

2:08of the New England Patriots and one of

2:10the arenas that Ed Sheeran was booked to

2:13perform in and said that this could not

2:16carry on. And not only would he not be

2:19welcome to be to perform at Robert

2:21Kraft's arena, there were numerous other

2:24owners of arenas that Ed Sheeran was

2:27booked to perform in that would

2:28subsequently pull out of the tour and

2:31refuse to host Ed Sheeran's show.

2:34At which point, Ed,

2:37having really, I would say, no choice,

2:40then said to Macklemore that he could

2:43not perform at any more of his shows.

2:47Now, something very hap- interesting

2:48happened at this point because every

2:51single one of Ed Sheeran's support acts

2:55have subsequently dropped out.

2:59Macklemore then said he is going to

3:01donate

3:02all of

3:04the earnings that he's going to get from

3:05the tour, roughly around a million

3:06dollars, to Palestinian causes. And

3:09Robert Kraft, in a beautiful piece of

3:11one-upmanship, has doubled that and said

3:14that he's going to give 2 million to

3:16Palestinian causes. So, Ed Sheeran, who,

3:20for those of you don't know, is a fairly

3:22milk-toast, middle-of-the-road

3:25pop act, is now caught in one of the

3:28cultural war stories of this year. And

3:32it's very interesting to see where this

3:35will go.

3:36>> Wait, Francis, just to check one thing.

3:37Did you say Robert Kraft is going to

3:40give 2 million to Palestinian causes or

3:42Israeli causes?

3:44>> Palestinian causes. To, as in

3:46Palestinian charities.

3:48>> So, having canceled the shows over

3:52the free Palestine thing, he's

3:53nonetheless going to give more money to

3:55Palestinian charities.

3:57>> Yeah, to help

3:59people who've been affected by the war.

4:01>> Okay, I see. Cool, cool, cool. Winston,

4:03you are obviously our music industry

4:05insider, but can I just say one thing

4:07before we get into it? Just one thing.

4:10I don't There's obviously the free

4:12speech and all of the principle stuff,

4:13but just from a

4:15the the three of us, I think, have

4:18opened for people and had people open

4:20for us at various lives. Like

4:22if you are opening for Ed Sheeran,

4:24I actually had to look this up cuz I

4:26couldn't believe it. Like Francis and I

4:28were talking about the story, and I was

4:29like, well, there's no way he would have

4:31said this at Ed Sheeran's concert. He

4:34might have done like a speech at a

4:35different concert of his own, and then

4:37that's become the controversy. I looked

4:39it up with Venisai. No, he did this

4:41political thing at Ed Sheeran's concert,

4:45at the concert of the guy for whom he's

4:47opening. And it's like, what are you

4:49doing?

4:50Yeah. Irrespective of the political

4:52cause, like if you are opening for a

4:54huge act, I mean, you're playing NFL

4:55arenas,

4:57Mhm. What are you doing stamp trying to

4:59stamp your message? Like if you're

5:00opening for someone, your attitude

5:02should be like that the white guy in the

5:04100-meter final, right? You're just

5:05happy to be there. You know what I mean?

5:07Like what are you doing?

5:09>> Well, let [snorts]

5:11If I may, so

5:13he

5:14his political activism was part of his

5:17act long before he was even booked to be

5:20on Ed Sheeran's tour,

5:22and

5:24it wasn't just any political activism.

5:26And it it I mean, it is classic sort of

5:28leftist derangement, you know?

5:31>> Mhm.

5:31>> He's on the wrong side of literally

5:33every possible issue you could be on.

5:35Cuba, ice, Lebanon, the the West. He

5:40He was always doing that. It So, but

5:43that's actually quite key to where I've

5:45landed on this, and that and that

5:47ultimately it was the fault of Sheeran

5:49and

5:50Kraft for allowing it to happen in the

5:52first place. They knew well before they

5:55announced it what Macklemore's live show

5:57was about. If you book Rage Against the

6:00Machine, you can't then later say post

6:03talk say, "Sorry lads, you can play but

6:05just no political songs, no no

6:08communism, yeah?" Cuz it's part of the

6:09act. If If I can

6:11just make a couple of corrections for

6:13Francis's opening. First thing

6:15Macklemore is is not Irish, he is

6:17American. But I think key here

6:20>> They all think they're Irish though,

6:21mate, don't they?

6:22>> Yeah.

6:23>> [laughter]

6:23>> They all think they're Irish and but

6:24they are they are all ginger and a lot

6:26of them are Irish, so [laughter]

6:30>> No one's talking about this. The ginger

6:32>> [laughter]

6:32>> No, I think it No, I think this is

6:33actually the the the part that

6:35everyone's missed.

6:36The support bands Phineas, who's Billie

6:39Eilish's sister, pulled pulled out in

6:41solidarity with Macklemore. And another

6:43point, sorry, it wasn't Ed or

6:47Kraft who technically dropped

6:49Macklemore, it was the promoters Messina

6:52Group. So Ed's hands are clean in this

6:56from my point of view, although everyone

6:59on the sort of pallid arrangement side,

7:02the sort of Gaza tardation, they

7:05are against Sheeran, but Sheeran

7:07actually is kind of in in the middle. I

7:09think the only mistake he made was

7:10booking Macklemore in the first place

7:12knowing what we know about Macklemore's

7:14set because Macklemore since 2014 was

7:17doing with, you know, zig heils in uh

7:21sort of Jew costumes. At the beginning

7:24of the Hamas war,

7:25even before Israel had responded after

7:28October 7th, he was doing Instagram

7:31posts

7:32saying there's an unfolding genocide. So

7:35this guy was was Hold on. Hold on. Hold

7:36on. Hold on.

7:37>> hold on. Your Instagram stor- like you

7:39can post about whatever you want on

7:41Instagram. I'm talking about why are you

7:43turning up to someone else's concert and

7:45doing a political thing, a speech about

7:48free Palestine. I take your point.

7:50>> I think

7:51>> Yeah.

7:53>> I I know what you're saying, but I'm

7:54saying that's part of his act. And that

7:57And that we knew that that was part of

7:59his act before Sheeran booked him. I

8:00mean, they announced this a year ago,

8:02which is still 2 years after the war

8:04started. He's Macklemore's been doing

8:05that all of his shows.

8:07For just as long as he's doing it, it's

8:09it's doing this paly nonsense is all is

8:12always been part of it for him. So

8:14>> How does that work, Winston? As a music

8:16industry person, how how I don't

8:17understand how it's like I I

8:20Francis and I background is stand-up

8:22comedy. Like, you would never say part

8:24of someone's set is to go out and do a

8:26pro-Palestine speech at the top and then

8:28do a few knob gags. Like, those are

8:31separate things.

8:32>> on the circuit recently, mate?

8:34>> No, I haven't, mate. That's [laughter]

8:35maybe the point.

8:39But, you know what I mean? Like, there's

8:41jokes or there's music and then there is

8:45speaking about issues and sure you some

8:48people might do both, but I don't

8:50understand as an opening if I when I was

8:53doing stand-up got to open for I don't

8:55know Joe Rogan or Bill Burr or whatever,

8:58I wouldn't go and then do a speech about

9:00the importance of Ukraine. I'd just go

9:01and do my best jokes.

9:04>> Yeah, but Macklemore's songs and it

9:07presumably he thinks they're his best so

9:09I I don't listen to Macklemore. I'm not

9:10a fan. So, it's hard for me to judge him

9:11right, but he has literally got songs

9:13about Gaza. So, if you're in this in

9:17this sort of

9:18analogy you're trying to make, if your

9:20best gag was about Ukraine

9:23and then you do it the the the tour and

9:26and Rogan says, "Great, yeah or but but

9:28you can do it. Just don't make that gag

9:30about Ukraine." You'd be like, "Well,

9:31that's not exactly the spirit of

9:33you know, you say you know, you need to

9:35have free speech in the arts. You've got

9:36to I mean

9:38>> Mate, I remember when I was a stand-up,

9:39I was so desperate. I I I would have cut

9:42any gag

9:42>> [laughter]

9:44>> Okay, you said that.

9:45>> I get to play in an NFL arena? I'm

9:47flying out to Ukraine right now.

9:49>> Yeah, that's what you want me to say.

9:51I'll say it.

9:53Okay, you said when I remember when you

9:56early on

9:58early days of Trig you were asked to

10:00sign a

10:01a a university tour. I can't remember

10:02what it was. You know the details.

10:04>> Yeah, yeah, yeah.

10:05>> Okay. Um but that's the point though.

10:06That's that's that that is actually the

10:08equivalent. And you

10:10So,

10:10that's where it gets sort of tricky. And

10:12I I imagine we're all going to agree

10:13that if artists don't have freedom of

10:16expression, that's a problem. And if you

10:17start

10:18if you start

10:20saying you can't say this or you see

10:22that there's punishment

10:24for saying this, then people are going

10:25to start being quiet. The problem in

10:27this example compared to all the stuff

10:29we've been talking about work is that

10:30this guy's views are absolutely

10:34abhorrent. I mean, they are as far left

10:37as you can get as far as I'm concerned.

10:39I mean, he was doing on stage blood

10:42libel. He was going and this happened at

10:44the Met live show last week. He was

10:46saying, "To my Jewish friends." Right?

10:49So, he's he's addressing he's picking

10:50out the Jews in the audience.

10:52And he's going, "If I criticize

10:55genocide, that is not anti-Semitic."

10:57[clears throat]

10:58Well, then why are you addressing your

10:59the Jewish friends? What's that got to

11:01do with them for a start? Secondly, if

11:03you're accusing Israel of genocide

11:06that is blood libel. Because it's not

11:08genocide, it's a war that Hamas started

11:11and they're responding to. I also note

11:13that Macklemore did not say Hamas return

11:16the hostages because that would have

11:18ended the war by the way. He said, "No,

11:20there's an unfolding genocide." So, it

11:22is anti-Semitic what he's saying. I

11:23mean, anyway,

11:25there's never ending but I really think

11:26the gender thing's important.

11:28Because

11:29>> [laughter]

11:30>> Macklemore's a ginger.

11:33Yeah. Phineas, who who was the support

11:35act is Billie Eilish's brother, is a

11:37he's a ginger.

11:38So, they've they've all basically

11:40converted to Islam, it seems like.

11:41They're racist on that front.

11:42>> [laughter]

11:44>> That pipeline is real.

11:47>> The ginger to

11:49who are called Boyega or Bioga,

11:53uh who are his backing men, on stage

11:55backing men, not the support band, on

11:56stage backing men, they're all from

11:58Ireland. One of the other support acts

12:01is from Ireland. Now, what's important

12:03here is

12:05if they're Irish, very likely they are

12:07carriers of the regressive red dream

12:09gene, even if they don't show themselves

12:11to be ginger. This is the This is the

12:12correlation is the pattern I'm seeing,

12:14guys.

12:15I'm just [laughter] noticing.

12:16I'm just noticing there's a ginger thing

12:18going on here. Now, it's also Ireland is

12:20like the highest per capita rate of

12:22Israel derangement syndrome. So, there's

12:23there's there's something else going on

12:25here. But, jokes aside,

12:28I mean, it's astonishing that Sheeran

12:29hasn't fallen for all of that stuff. And

12:30And he's now not being played by

12:32>> Despite being a ginger, he's like he's

12:34like a self-hating ginger.

12:37>> [laughter]

12:37>> He's a self-hating ginger.

12:38>> Yeah.

12:40>> Uh Tom, I

12:42Go go I was I thought you were wrapped

12:44up when Tom, I know you as a free speech

12:47champion, but I actually don't agree

12:48with Winston here about this free speech

12:50in arts thing in one respect. At your

12:54own concert, you can say and do whatever

12:57you want. And if a stadium then says,

12:59you know, I I I personally don't agree

13:01with those views, therefore you're

13:02canceled, I think that's wrong. But, to

13:04me,

13:05the issue of opening for someone else is

13:08a completely different thing. You If

13:11you're opening for someone else who is

13:13giving you an opportunity that you would

13:14never yourself have, which is in this

13:16instance to play an NFL arena, holy

13:18crap, it should be the dream moment of

13:20your career. You don't get to derail the

13:23whole thing by imposing your particular

13:26political opinions, whatever they may

13:27be. Like, if Francis and I did a

13:30trigonometry live show and we asked

13:32somebody to open for us and that person

13:35went on and did a political message that

13:38I agreed with, I'd still be like, "What

13:40the [ __ ] are you doing? You're here to

13:42do the thing we hired you to do, which

13:44is do your comedy or do your music or

13:46whatever it is. What's your take, Tom?"

13:48>> No, I think that's a fair point. I

13:49suppose that would probably more

13:51perfectly capture it if this was just a

13:53case of Ed Sheeran taking umbrage at

13:56this impromptu pro-Palestine lecture and

13:58saying, "You know what, you can't really

13:59be on the tour. I make love songs for

14:02teeny bopper audiences. Um this is not

14:04the time for blood libel." Then there

14:06might have been this kind of then that

14:08argument might have applied more neatly.

14:09I suppose that the added dimension here

14:11is the fact that because of individuals,

14:13primarily Robert Kraft, the owner of the

14:14Gillette Stadium, as Francis was

14:16explaining there,

14:17um seemed to have gone out of his way to

14:20try to have Macklemore pulled, um not

14:23just from his own arena, but from other

14:25ones on the tour that it does. It brings

14:28it into the cancel culture discussion

14:29even if we don't think it a perfect fit

14:32for what we're talking about. Um and at

14:34the very least I think we can say that

14:35when you have people on the more

14:36pro-Israel side trying to play that

14:38game, at the very least it backfires

14:40spectacularly. Um Macklemore has piled

14:43on millions of Instagram followers since

14:45this has happened. It's kind of it's

14:47it's depressing, but to be a kind of

14:48rabid Israelophobe in the music industry

14:51has become a bit of a cheat code. It has

14:52elevated completely talentless hacks,

14:55whether we're talking about Kneecap or

14:57Bob Vylan or in this case Macklemore,

14:58who's had a lot of success up until this

15:00point, but you know, off the back of

15:02some very ropy music. It gives them this

15:04new status. It gives them the martyrdom

15:06that they were seeking, all of that kind

15:08of stuff. I But at the same time there's

15:09been this retaliation now, which feels

15:12much more vicious and sinister towards

15:15Ed Sheeran. If you go online, you see

15:17pictures of him, you know, stained in

15:19blood, people speculating that because

15:21he went to a Shabbat dinner once, he's

15:23been got out. I mean, all of this has

15:24gotten very, very ugly.

15:26Um and it shows that if there's any kind

15:27of conformism at play here, it's on the

15:29pro-Palestine side. They're the ones who

15:31are trying to enforce

15:33good the kind of ideological purity

15:35test. And I never thought I'd say this,

15:37but I'm very much team Ed Sheeran. I do

15:39quite feel sorry for him, really. Not

15:41least because partly because of the sort

15:43of act he is and partly because of the

15:44sort of bloke he seems to be. He's just

15:46not really built for this era. He kind

15:48of

15:49he puts in mind that Hollister-wearing

15:51kind of gap year middle-class lad who

15:52just wants everyone to get along. And

15:54yet he finds himself in the middle of

15:55the biggest culture war story

15:57potentially of the year so far. I mean,

15:58it's sort of [laughter] those kind of

16:00really sad developments, but um I think

16:03what's what one thing that that struck

16:04me um and I think we might have a clip

16:06of this is um when Paloma Faith was

16:09>> Oh, yeah.

16:09>> stumbled onto Channel 4

16:11to discuss this because you know, when

16:12there's a big political controversy, who

16:14else do you uh turn to?

16:16>> Uh Dean, let's get this clip up so that

16:17people know what Tom's talking about.

16:20>> No, exactly. Well, I'm sure we've got a

16:21clip of that.

16:21>> But what is wrong with Ed Sheeran

16:23saying, "Look, I mean, I I write love

16:25songs mostly. My audience are often

16:28children."

16:29>> I don't That comment I don't like.

16:32When he said that, it really upset me

16:34because there's so many children in

16:36Palestine that are faced with

16:39unimaginable things and shouldn't be.

16:42So, when he said that, I was like, "I

16:44say free Palestine to my children every

16:46night." I think children should be

16:47exposed to

16:50>> Incredible. I mean, I don't I don't know

16:52about you, but what else are you going

16:53to do?

16:53>> By the way, can I just add one small

16:54detail, Tom? I'm operating from memory

16:57here, but her children, I believe, are

16:589, 5, and 7 months. So, there's a

17:027-month-old baby in her little cradle or

17:05his little cradle being free Palestine'd

17:08by [laughter] her own mother.

17:10>> Can you imagine how proud Paloma Faith

17:12will be if her son's first words are

17:15free Palestine?

17:17>> I mean, that seems to be what they're

17:18trying to get him to do.

17:19>> Yeah, well

17:20>> [laughter]

17:21>> No, exactly. I mean,

17:22I I mean, after I saw that clip and

17:24after I called social services, I was

17:26quite struck by just how deranged these

17:30people have become without realizing it.

17:32And also, the the lack of appreciation

17:35about how much kind of conformist

17:36cultural sway they now have that side of

17:38the argument, not Paloma Faith herself,

17:40but necessarily. Um who incidentally is

17:42someone whose status I'm constantly been

17:45amused by. I've never once met a Paloma

17:46Faith fan or anyone who could actually

17:48name a song by her. I'm kind of starting

17:49to get suspicious as to what

17:51is going on there.

17:53But it is one of those things where I

17:55was a little bit confused. But she's

17:57also said in that interview that Ed

17:59Sheeran is having to learn the hard way

18:00that being a political is itself a

18:03political stance. So, I think what we're

18:04seeing here is essentially like silence

18:06is violence from the BLM days repackaged

18:09in the Palestine argument. And

18:11the end point of that argument is

18:12miserable, particularly for pop culture.

18:14The idea that you there is no area of

18:16life, even I'd say like a pop concert

18:18that is primarily aimed at um kids to

18:22that must not be turned into a lecture.

18:25Um and I and this is something that's

18:26been going on for some time. And of

18:27course, whether it's Macklemore or

18:29anyone else, if they want to be

18:30political, that's absolutely up to them.

18:31No one's really stopping them. But at

18:33the same time, I think the demand that

18:34everyone be political will just is bad

18:37for popular culture cuz it just ruins it

18:40for so many people who don't want

18:42politics to infect it. And also, I think

18:44it's bad for politics. It just reduces

18:45everything down to the level of like a

18:47easy to regurgitate celebrity platitude

18:51and brings with it this very conformist

18:53culture. So, yeah, as I say, I never

18:54thought I'd say this, but team Ed all

18:57the way on this one.

18:58>> Tom, uh well, I never thought I'd say

19:00this.

19:01I never thought I'd say this, and please

19:03forgive me, but I'm team Winston.

19:06Completely on this one. Because

19:08>> [laughter]

19:08>> I know. I'm I'm just as shocked as you

19:11are, mate. And I'm

19:12I feel like I'm going to have to have a

19:13shower afterwards. But genuinely,

19:16BECAUSE [laughter]

19:19BUT NO, NO, GENUINELY, because this is

19:21what is called in the business a booking

19:22error. If I was playing If I put on a

19:25gig in a church, I wouldn't bring on

19:28some kind of, you know, Ed Sheeran who's

19:30just going to do 20 minutes of pedo

19:32gigs.

19:33It's because it's completely

19:35>> RIGHT HERE, [ __ ]

19:37>> [laughter]

19:39>> BECAUSE, YOU KNOW WHAT? THE PRIEST IS

19:40GOING TO GET UPSET. That's his lived

19:41experience. But you know, but genuinely,

19:44like

19:44>> You learned this the hard way, Ed

19:45Sheeran, DIDN'T YOU?

19:46>> [laughter]

19:49>> IN ALL SERIOUSNESS, YOU CAN'T do that.

19:51If you've got this show which is

19:54essentially a middle-of-the-road pop act

19:56with, you know, fairly

19:59I mean, let's be honest what Ed Sheeran

20:00is. It's milk toast tame love songs

20:03about how he loves, you know, you like

20:05dancing with your missus or some

20:06bollocks like that. WHY ARE YOU WHAT IS

20:08MILK toast doing in a comedy show? AND

20:10JUST STOP BRINGING [laughter] ON ABOUT

20:12PALESTINE.

20:13>> Do you know what? I never thought I'd

20:14stop I never thought I I I don't care

20:17about music cuz you all know, sorry

20:18when, but I don't. But I saw a clip of

20:21where Ed Sheeran was on

20:23on my Twitter

20:24>> [laughter]

20:25>> I'm not offended. Um

20:27I saw a clip of Ed Sheeran this morning

20:29on my Twitter on his own playing with

20:31that What [clears throat] What is that

20:32machine called where you play a a chord

20:34and it

20:35loops it?

20:37And he's [ __ ] brilliant.

20:38I mean, he's brilliant. It's genuinely

20:40amazing to watch. He's a good performer.

20:42The music is good.

20:44>> Well, Frankie thinks he's milk toast,

20:45so.

20:46>> Yeah. But the thing is, this milk toast

20:49language, I don't get it when it comes

20:50to music cuz it's not Why does music

20:52have to be like edgy? Some music is just

20:55pleasant to listen to. And I imagine if

20:57you're a teenage girl, Ed Ed Sheeran is

20:59what you want to listen to. It's

21:00correct.

21:01>> He's very good at what he does. I've

21:02actually got a bit of a long history of

21:04as a Ed Sheeran apologist cuz in a

21:05previous life as a music journalist, I

21:07gave his second album three stars in

21:09Time Out, which is something that I'm

21:10trying to live down to this day. Because

21:12even though it's not for me, per se,

21:14it's something that he's very good at

21:15what he does. Um, and by dint of the

21:18kind of quite strange career he's had,

21:20where he's sort of on the one hand

21:21trying to be Damien Rice, but on the

21:22other hand kind of came through doing

21:24like hooks for grime MCs. He's a very

21:26odd character, but musically at the same

21:28time it works because he's just a very

21:30talented songwriter and performer.

21:31>> if you're selling out NFL stadiums,

21:33you're probably quite good at what you

21:35do.

21:35>> You're doing something right. And but

21:37this is why I feel sorry for him because

21:38he's not of the sort of, you know,

21:40omnicause mold. He's someone who just

21:43wants to have a good time and play to

21:45audiences [laughter]

21:46and hope that everyone can kind of get

21:47along. Um, and yet he's unfortunately

21:49just still been frog-marched into the

21:51culture war, and that's the bit that I

21:52think is really quite unfortunate.

21:54>> But don't see his point, Tom. If you

21:55want everyone to get along and have a

21:57nice time, then you don't book this lad.

22:00I mean, Dean, bring up, please, uh, the

22:02BBC story. Now, admittedly, this is from

22:062014,

22:08but and he said he didn't say he didn't

22:10know that it was anti-Semitic. I mean,

22:12COME ON.

22:13>> [laughter]

22:15>> YEAH.

22:17WHAT WAS HIS COVER STORY? It was like I

22:20think [laughter] he claims that he just

22:22stuck the wig on, wasn't really thinking

22:24about it, stuck the nose on, wasn't

22:25really thinking about it. Oh,

22:28I didn't realize what this meant.

22:29>> Well, I said the N-word many, many

22:31times, but I didn't know it was racist.

22:35>> I thought it WAS

22:36A LOT. [laughter]

22:38>> A LOT HAS BEEN SAID ABOUT, WELL, you

22:39know, IQ in Gaza, there's some reports

22:42that it's as low as 68 average IQ. But

22:45we don't talk about the average IQ of

22:47these pro-Pali supporters in the West.

22:49If you don't realize

22:51that that's anti-Semitic, you're pretty

22:52dumb. I mean, that's pretty astonishing.

22:54>> Do you reckon that's got something to do

22:55with the ginger thing? Just a

22:58>> [laughter]

22:58>> Well,

22:59>> I'm just noticing

23:00>> It's all in the genes.

23:01>> Well, I'm faith of ginger.

23:03>> Let's get Nathan Cofnas back on the show

23:05to TALK ABOUT [laughter] GINGER.

23:09>> HE SHOULD BE LIKE A correspondent for

23:10all these questions.

23:12>> Tom, you

23:12>> Go on with the last word on this before

23:14we move on.

23:17>> Tom, you said that no one's being

23:18political on this. Two little points

23:19here which I think are important for

23:20this story. They are and that Kraft is

23:24saying that he can't be political. They

23:25don't like what he's saying. He's saying

23:26it's cuz it's anti-Semitic, but it is it

23:28is political speech that's being shut

23:30down here. There's a question about free

23:32speech, I think, which Look, this is the

23:35private sphere, it's not the public

23:36sphere, so this is not a First Amendment

23:38issue. But just as with X Twitter, there

23:41was a conversation about it's a you

23:42know, it's a private company, but it is

23:44the public square. Are Stadia the public

23:47square? There's There's a the question

23:48there. And then the other thing which I

23:50think important is important here is

23:52Kraft's behavior and the machine a group

23:54in nixing Maclemore

23:57gives the impression to those people on

23:59the other side that the Zionist lobby

24:01are in fact in control, are in fact

24:05controlling America. And this is a big I

24:07think a big mistake from Kraft is that

24:10they have played into in the long

24:13culture war what you're playing out

24:15here. They They've They've handed over a

24:16little victory to the other side who can

24:18now say that Israelis control the world.

24:21And I so I think it was a misplay doing

24:23this. They should have thought about it

24:25in advance.

24:26>> All right, moving on uh to the story

24:29about how we're all about to die, uh

24:30which is always a cheery one and uh

24:32people enjoy. Uh Winston, tell us about

24:35everything that's been happening in the

24:37world of AI this week. There've been

24:38several people who work for big AI

24:41companies coming out and basically

24:43saying there's a X percent chance this

24:46will kill us all.

24:48>> So this all starts with Jacob Coxen, an

24:52absolute neek, a rationalist British

24:56researcher who wasn't working very long

24:58in AI. He was a few years at Open AI

25:01then a few months at Anthropic and he

25:05released a mega viral ex-post

25:10that said amongst other things

25:12and I think Dean can throw up the

25:15the asset here

25:17that

25:19their racing to self-improving

25:20superintelligence was gambling with our

25:22lives. That's Open AI and Anthropic

25:24gambling with our lives and that

25:27people inside on the inside earnestly

25:30believe AI could kill us by the end of

25:31the decade

25:33and

25:35also and this is important thing that

25:37the people privately working at these AI

25:40companies

25:41are

25:42are

25:43actually believe extinction is very

25:44possible but publicly are like no full

25:47steam ahead. So that's what it that that

25:49sort of was how this whole saga kicked

25:52off.

25:53Then

25:55um

25:56They were here also said Anthropic takes

25:58the risk seriously but won't slow down

26:00in case a rival doesn't. So that's the

26:01other thing. So you've got this race

26:03between this fear that if you slow down

26:06China

26:07are going to get ahead or indeed one of

26:09the AI other AI models are going to get

26:11get ahead. Then the big headline

26:13sentence that's been doing the rounds

26:15was by

26:16Anthropic's alignment lead called Evan

26:19Hubinger who said there's a 10% chance

26:22of human extinction in the next 10

26:25years. That's the

26:27big sort of headline thing that everyone

26:28got super worried about.

26:31So that's the part of part one of the

26:32story. Now there's a little bit of a

26:34conspiracy theory here because before

26:37this unknown Nick Bostrom came out. He's

26:40also a rationalist

26:42effective altruist which we need to come

26:43back to because I I cannot the only

26:46group of people

26:47other than that I hate more than gingers

26:50apart from Ed Sheeran is effective

26:51altruists but we'll have to come back to

26:53that and it's important.

26:54Is uh so the Wall Street Journal

26:57actually had come out with an article

26:59that came out before the tweet of this

27:01unknown leak.

27:03So there's a sense that that maybe there

27:06was some sort of conspiracy here. But

27:08then Anthropic put out a threat report.

27:12And in that threat report, as well as

27:14saying there are five cases of unarmed

27:17scientists using Claude to make bio uh

27:20unnamed, I should say, scientists using

27:22Claude to make biological weapons. It is

27:25also the case

27:26that the Houthis were using the weapons

27:31in the Gulf. Now, this is where I got

27:33sort of pause for thought. I'm thinking,

27:36"Wow,

27:37the Houthis are are using AI to sort of

27:41you you kind of create software and

27:42engineers and and and this is I've been

27:45using AI to make memes."

27:48And that's why I was like, "What What am

27:50I

27:51It's kind of throw me out a bit. Like,

27:52what am I doing with my life?" I'm sat

27:53in front of my laptop. These guys are

27:55out there doing something. Doing

27:57something, you know, trying to advance

27:58their stuff.

27:59>> You're making memes. You could have been

28:00shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,

28:01mate.

28:02>> Mhm. Exactly. Uh but it was also the

28:04case that

28:07Iran have been using them uh in in the

28:10in the Iran have been using Iran-linked

28:12operators using Claude during the Iran

28:14war.

28:15China have also been using them, but

28:17crucially

28:19China have been using Claude and within

28:23their own shell AI companies. So it was

28:26actually American AI that they're

28:28dressing up as Chinese AI. So that was

28:31another part of of the

28:33report. And that there's also reports of

28:37Russian cover drone swarm software being

28:40run through um

28:42Claude. So that's That's the next part

28:44of the story. Then

28:47we have Dario,

28:49the Anthropic CEO,

28:51come out and say, "We need a one world

28:56government." And so, we've got an asset

28:57here.

29:00>> It seems like the fate of humanity is at

29:02risk. How much personal responsibility

29:05do you feel about where we are going?

29:07>> So, you know, my Look, my view here is

29:11it has always been very strange that

29:14this technology is being built by by a

29:17private company. People ask me that

29:18question all the time. Why isn't this

29:20being built by government? And the

29:22strangest thing about it is I agree with

29:24them. I'm uncomfortable.

29:25>> Would you be willing to give up the

29:26technology to the government?

29:28>> To the right combination of governments.

29:31So, the worry I have

29:33>> to hand over this company.

29:34>> am concerned that one single

29:37government could abuse this technology

29:40just as easily as a single company

29:41could. But, I think a combination

29:45of democratically elected governments

29:49I don't know about handing over, but

29:50some kind of oversight, some kind of

29:53joint governance

30:01>> So, you have there this speak of a one

30:05world government. Now,

30:07you might remember Peter Thiel saying

30:08one world government is the Antichrist.

30:11It's certainly my idea of of what an

30:13Antichrist might look like. This is the

30:15kind of the kind of communist end game.

30:17I'm not a fan of this. It's not a

30:19coincidence, I I think, that the likes

30:21of Bernie Sanders, who I'm sure

30:2310 minutes ago never heard of sort of

30:25the AI frontier, are also saying that we

30:27need to close this down. It's more

30:29dangerous than nuclear. That's it. Well,

30:31he actually said that. It's the same

30:33people who think that there's a climate

30:34apocalypse coming and and they need to

30:36sort of take away our powers. You know,

30:38it's a collective action problem. So, uh

30:40so, that all taking the side of like we

30:41need the one world government.

30:43But and and and by the way, Elon Musk

30:46says Dario's right. Altman says that we

30:48need to paste the frontier.

30:50Um, but there's also been pushback.

30:52Nvidia's Jensen Huang

30:55praised Cockson but said that he doesn't

30:58agree with the forecast of um

30:59extinction. Uh, so there's a there's a

31:02bit of a slip a split here. Not least

31:06with Trump. Now, this is an absolutely

31:09hilarious tweet. So, I hope we can read

31:11it together.

31:16The only control of guardrails that AI

31:18needs is a strong and smart high IQ

31:20president and the USA has that in

31:23spades.

31:25Trump administration [clears throat] has

31:26stopped AI people from doing bad or

31:29potentially bad things like Dario

31:32who is now pretending to be a perfect

31:34little angel and we will continue to do

31:36so.

31:37We already have tremendous criminal and

31:38regulatory power over these companies.

31:40There is a sick conspiracy going on

31:43against AI and data centers and the only

31:45one who's happy about it is China.

31:48Whoever wins AI wins. We are leading

31:51China and all others. We'll continue to

31:52do so. Conspiracy theorists,

31:53treasonists, traitors, and leakers

31:56beware. Thank you for your attention to

31:58this matter, President Donald J. Trump.

32:00So, absolutely classic. I mean, this guy

32:03is just a comedy legend as far as I can

32:04stand.

32:05And

32:07so that you see the split there. So,

32:08there's a kind of the the doomers think

32:10that we've got extinction on the

32:12near horizon.

32:14And the the other side is if you if you

32:16slack then China will take the lead.

32:19And that's basically

32:21the slit the split there. Now, just to

32:24add cuz obviously I talked about the

32:25Houthis. There's another thing that's

32:26come up here is this the hugging face

32:28intrusion. And this happened back in

32:30July but

32:31the there's an internal open AI

32:34cybersecurity test and hundreds of AI

32:36agents escaped a supposed sandbox,

32:39reached the internet, and then actually

32:41committed a felony. So, if it'd been

32:43humans who done it, it would have been a

32:45felony and they they they

32:47released

32:48uh

32:49they hacked a lot of sort of

32:51private uh in in

32:53uh information and and and and

32:56so it basically gave everyone a real

32:58scare that that that they they're now

33:00working on their own accord, these AI

33:02agents. So, that's kind of what is a bit

33:05that this this hugging face intrusion

33:06has been a big scaring point for a lot

33:09of people. So, I I'll let you jump in

33:11cuz I've been talking a long a long

33:13time. I've done my best to to

33:15to to lay out what I think has been a

33:17quite a complicated unfolding of events.

33:19>> No, you gave us lots of detail. Let me

33:21just reground the conversation in the

33:22central premise, which is the concern is

33:26that once AI becomes AGI, particularly

33:29artificial generalized intelligence, at

33:32that point we've effectively created

33:36a being that is smarter than us. And if

33:38we look at the history of this planet

33:40and look at the different species that

33:42have inhabited it, particularly with

33:46the evolution of various

33:49uh types of humans that we now have, the

33:53smarter ones always come out on top. And

33:54they basically do what we've done, Homo

33:57sapiens have done to the planet and

33:58other species on it, which is we

33:59subjugate them to our own needs and

34:02purposes. And uh one of the things that

34:06>> [clears throat]

34:07>> is a concern with all of this and the

34:09reason that the the the both the heads

34:11of the

34:12uh AI companies and everyone else is

34:14who's talking about this is talking

34:15about it is it is now very close. I

34:17mean, I was looking at the Caltech odds

34:20uh for when

34:22a company is likely to achieve AGI, and

34:26we're basically saying, according to

34:28this, that within the next year and a

34:30half, I mean, by January 1st 2028, the

34:33odds are 67% according according to the

34:36Calchas markets. So, this is not some

34:39distant remote possibility. We are

34:42talking about this being on the cusp of

34:45AGI, artificial general intelligence,

34:48where it can think for itself,

34:51combined with the evolution of robotics,

34:53which is somewhat further behind. So,

34:56you not only have the brain now being

34:58independent species effectively, but it

35:01then has the physical embodiment through

35:03robots, which are also coming. And at

35:05that point, you know, Donald Trump I his

35:08tweet, in my opinion, lays out the

35:10doomerist case in all its perfection,

35:13which is

35:14people in different countries see AI as

35:17a way to win, and therefore there is no

35:20way to stop the runaway development of

35:23AGI because each country is incentivized

35:25to pursue its own interest. And unless

35:28there is some sort of global control

35:31architecture, or at least some sort of

35:35you know, the thing that we had with

35:36nuclear weapons. But the thing is, with

35:38nuclear weapons, they're not autonomous.

35:39They couldn't launch themselves. This is

35:42something else entirely. Unless you have

35:44some level of global coordination, this

35:47will happen, and the risk to humanity is

35:50devastatingly

35:51significant. It may not be 100%. It may

35:54not be 50%. It may just be a lowly 10%,

35:58but 10% probability events happen in

36:00each of our lives on a daily basis 50

36:02times. Uh you go outside of your house

36:05today, you will experience a sequence of

36:0710% probability events on a number of

36:10occasions in one day, right? So,

36:14to say that this risk is not serious, I

36:16think is would be very, very foolish.

36:18This is extremely serious, in my

36:20opinion.

36:22>> Yeah, but it So, the problem with that

36:24argument is that uh

36:27firstly, all of these American AI

36:30companies have the power themselves

36:32already to regulate. So, if they are

36:35really so concerned, then do the right

36:39thing. Just stop going ahead of this.

36:42Put in the right

36:43>> they But this is their argument though

36:44is if we don't someone worse than us

36:46will. And they're right.

36:48>> Yeah, but the problem with the the world

36:51government regulation argument which is

36:53the same we've had with the UN with all

36:55these international bodies is that

36:57they're hijacked by the Western enemies

37:00anyway. So,

37:02you look look at how

37:04at the

37:05sort of Iran and Russia and China always

37:08working and conspiring against the West

37:10in those groups anyway. You can't have a

37:12one-world

37:13>> I'm not advocating for a one-world

37:15government.

37:16>> [clears throat]

37:16>> I'm not advocating for a one-world

37:17government. I know some some of them

37:19are, but even if you listen to Dary

37:20Admaday, he was talking about the

37:22democratic nations. So, like an AI NATO

37:25basically, which puts us in the

37:27situation of a standoff with China in

37:29which we already are anyway.

37:31But that's

37:32that's just that's just the groundwork

37:34of of the of the conversation. Tom,

37:36Francis, feel free to jump in.

37:39>> Well, I suppose there's two things here

37:41which maybe need to be disaggregated a

37:43little bit. One of which is whether or

37:45not the AI revolution is going to pose

37:49the sorts of level of threat that's

37:51currently being talked about. I try to

37:53be a sort of optimist about technology,

37:55but where this issue is concerned,

37:56they're really not making it easy.

37:58Um of course, we have a history, a rich

38:01history of panics about technological

38:03developments,

38:04doomsday predictions about whether it

38:06was something as significant as nuclear

38:08weapons or something as relatively less

38:10threatening it would seem in theory as

38:12the rise of the internet has always been

38:13met with these kinds of

38:15prognostications. That being said, as

38:17you mentioned there Constantin, there is

38:18a couple of things which make this very

38:19very different. One of which is previous

38:21conversations about the idea of

38:22something like nuclear weapons falling

38:24into the wrong hands. Obviously it

38:25applies here. I mean it would be funny

38:27going back to what Winston was saying

38:28that if the twist was that when people

38:30said that the Houthis and China and

38:32Russia were using AI, they were using it

38:33to make memes, but I doubt that will be

38:35the case. [laughter]

38:36Um but so there is the issue of them it

38:38falling into the wrong hands

38:39[clears throat] or it being developed by

38:40the wrong people. But then there's also

38:42this question of AGI where what if the

38:44wrong hands are the AI itself?

38:46What if it becomes a malign actor and

38:48agent in an

38:50>> It doesn't have to, Tom. I'm sorry to

38:51interrupt, but I think it's worth

38:53adding. It does not have to become a

38:55malign actor.

38:56This is the one thing that people don't

38:58understand. All it has to do is develop

39:01a will of its own and a survival

39:04instinct of its own. And in that

39:06situation, and look, I I I'm a absolute

39:09science science fiction nerd. I read all

39:11the books when I was a kid. The reality

39:13is an AI that is designed to care for

39:17humanity

39:18could destroy humanity by caring about

39:21it. Or could subjugate humanity by

39:23caring about it. So it could destroy

39:25humanity by realizing that humanity is

39:27incapable of living at peace with

39:29itself. It's just a bunch of warring

39:30tribes. So, you know, the best way to

39:33save humanity is to destroy humanity. Or

39:35it could just say, "You know what?

39:38Actually the best thing for humanity

39:40would be to cap the population at a

39:41certain level which is super

39:43sustainable. It means that it the plan

39:45there's no runaway this and no runaway

39:46that and it's been fed all this [ __ ]

39:48about runaway climate change and all

39:50this other stuff, which it has, right?

39:51That's where it's getting its

39:52information from. So what's the best

39:54thing to do? Let's sterilize everyone."

39:56Or

39:58I could give you a thousand scenarios

40:00where a well-intentioned

40:02super intelligence

40:04strips us of agency or kills us all, not

40:07because it's malevolent or or anything

40:09like that, but simply [clears throat]

40:11because it is more powerful than us.

40:13>> Of course, and like malign in effect if

40:15not in intention. And of course and the

40:17idea that it could be a sort of

40:18benevolent it could

40:20come to consider itself almost as a sort

40:21of benevolent despot who knows best and

40:24will impose that on the other I

40:26understand that argument. I suppose the

40:28difficulty is and maybe it is a kind of

40:29intractable problem it certainly feels

40:31like it at the moment is what do you do

40:32about it

40:33because of the fact that as we saw laid

40:35out in the clip there there's a question

40:37of just allowing these corporations to

40:40do as they will is obviously

40:42insufficient. Similarly, the idea that

40:44they would be some kind of international

40:46accord either smacks of a certain

40:49potential for authoritarianism but on

40:51the other hand just whether or not it

40:51will actually work whether or not this

40:53is going to be another case as we've

40:54already gestured to the countries that

40:56we're most concerned about

40:58having their hands on this technology or

40:59developing this technology just

41:01completely ignoring it. I mean as even

41:03going back to nuclear weapons the Iran

41:04experience proves that you can cut

41:06international agreements it doesn't mean

41:07that they're going to be stuck to

41:09particularly when you're dealing with

41:10states such as the Islamic Republic. So,

41:13that's a huge problem. There's also just

41:15how lurking in the behind all this has

41:16been a thread in our conversation anyway

41:18is just the potential thought like

41:20authoritarianism of different flavors,

41:22you know, whether or not that's the AI

41:23itself or probably more likely in the

41:25near term

41:26states using this technology on a to a

41:29level that would unlock a level of sort

41:31of surveillance authoritarianism that

41:33previously wouldn't be possible.

41:34Um you know, there was always kind of

41:36natural limits on what say a government

41:38could do by dint of the sheer

41:40technology. You know, I remember um

41:42it being discussed about in the

41:43pre-internet age there's only so many

41:45kind of phone lines you can tap is a

41:47kind of physical exercise. You don't get

41:49to the digital age Edward Snowden and

41:51the ability that say the NSA might have

41:53to be able to tap into a particular

41:55phone but there's still you can't look

41:57at all of that data all the time, you

41:59know, it's it's something that might be

42:00sat there ready to be accessible but

42:02you're not going to be able to process

42:04it and look at it in

42:07on a scale whereas AI presents that

42:09capability. So, the the thing that I'm

42:11kind of

42:12is at least in the immediate term the

42:14only thing that I think might pull us

42:16back from the brink is just whether or

42:17not this technology isn't quite as

42:19isn't going to develop to the speed that

42:20it's boosters or even the doom mongers

42:22suggest that it might do cuz otherwise

42:24it should it just leaves so many big

42:26questions which without wanting to be on

42:27the fence about things it's very

42:29difficult to see where the way through

42:31would be if these predictions could turn

42:33out to be true.

42:36>> So, uh there is a part of me that goes

42:39and maybe this is a cynical part of me

42:41that just goes is this just the greatest

42:44marketing ploy of all time?

42:47Do you know what I mean? Like the the

42:48way that it's presented, the way that

42:50it's spoken about because I was uh in a

42:53cigar bar and I was talking to a guy who

42:56is an expert in quantum computing. And

42:59he was saying to me that whilst AI is

43:01very powerful, AI is the software and

43:03quantum computing is the hardware. And I

43:06was asking for asking so why is it

43:08important? He said, "Well, I'll tell you

43:10one thing. When quantum computing

43:12happens which could be anywhere between

43:14a year and a half to two years, it will

43:16effectually make

43:19encryption obsolete because encryption

43:23data that has been heavily encrypted now

43:24takes around 50 years to decode. With

43:27quantum computing, it will take 5

43:29minutes. It will also as a result of

43:31that make AI far more powerful." So, he

43:35goes, "Whilst everyone's focusing on AI,

43:37this is a thing that we're actually

43:38really not talking about. And we are in

43:41an arms race, a technical technological

43:44arms race. Everybody talks about the AI

43:46arms race, but we're in a technological

43:49arms race with China because the first

43:51people to have this kind of technology

43:55they automatically have a one-up on

43:58them." So, I was saying, "Well, with

43:59quantum computing, what do you mean?" He

44:01goes, "Well, think about cyber attacks.

44:03You're probably not going to go after

44:04financial systems, but what you are

44:06going to do is you're going to go after

44:10institutions that are very data-heavy,

44:12but have very weak secure

44:15security. For example, hospitals.

44:18Hospitals have a wealth of data, but as

44:21we all know, particularly if you look at

44:22the NHS, they run on antiquated systems,

44:25antiquated firewalls, all the rest of

44:27it. And that is a literal mine of

44:29information. So, why wouldn't you attack

44:32that type of institution? So, I think

44:35whilst AI is a thing that we're talking

44:37about, there is a whole other

44:39technological arms race that we're

44:41simply not focusing on, because we

44:43simply don't have the bandwidth to do

44:46so.

44:47>> Yeah, I mean, that's a good point, but I

44:48think we have to just come back to the

44:51difference here. If quantum computing,

44:53as you said yourself, it will empower

44:55AI, but more than that, if it's a thing

44:57that humans control, yes, powerful

45:00weapons in the hands of humans are

45:02scared, and if they're the wrong humans,

45:04they're scary. And if they're the wrong

45:06humans, they're really, really bad. But

45:08they're nonetheless controlled by

45:09humans.

45:11>> Mhm.

45:11>> The difference with AGI and the risk to

45:14humanity that we're talking about here

45:15is we are creating a super intelligence

45:19which will eventually become embodied,

45:21that will be smarter and more powerful

45:23than the collective smartness and power

45:26of humanity. And that And I think, by

45:29the way, the reason no one is sort of

45:31Not no one talks about it, but the

45:32reason very few people talk about it is

45:35the reason that Tom said, which is it's

45:36one of those things that we actually

45:38have not

45:39There's clearly nothing we can do about

45:40it, basically, at this point. Um

45:43And I And I think that's the reason that

45:45this You know, every time we talk about

45:47AI and trigonometry, we're like,

45:49"No one's going to watch this, but we've

45:51got to talk about it anyway, cuz people

45:52should understand what's happening."

45:54Most people think AI at the moment is

45:57that model they tried 3 years ago, where

45:59they tried to look up the facts about

46:01something they know, and it was quite

46:02wrong. And they think that's what AI is.

46:04They Most people do not understand

46:07what's going on. They also, by the way,

46:08don't understand the psychology and the

46:10mentality of many of the people who are

46:11developing this stuff, a lot of whom

46:14are not actually thinking about the

46:16consequences of what they're doing in

46:18nearly the detail that Dario Amodei

46:20seems to be. A lot of them just think

46:22they're they're God and they they've

46:23they've they've caught this moment in

46:25which they get to glorify themselves and

46:28write their name in history. So, um

46:31I actually personally, this has been

46:34very beneficial to my mental well-being

46:36because I actually have completely

46:37accepted that I there's a very strong

46:39chance we only have X years left. And

46:42so, I'm just living my life as best I

46:45can in terms of, you know, making sure I

46:46spend I'm present with my family, I

46:49spend time with them, etc. Uh because I

46:51genuinely think this is a very, very

46:53real risk and people are not taking it

46:55seriously enough.

46:58>> Wow.

46:59So, mega doomer.

47:01>> I'm not a doomer.

47:02>> doomer than I have seen in my life.

47:04That's the That's the most doomer

47:06argument I've heard, even more than any

47:08anything in research

47:09>> I'm not a doomer. I'm a realist. And if

47:12if the world is about to end and we

47:13there's nothing we can do about it, the

47:15best thing you can do is live the best

47:18version of your life that you possibly

47:19can. Which, by the way, just I'll just

47:22say this, was always true anyway because

47:25your life was going to be over at some

47:27point anyway and you might as well live

47:28your life like that.

47:30So, so it's just

47:33>> I I know obviously I don't know what

47:35about to happen. You make a pretty solid

47:37argument there, but I will say that

47:38basically we humankind always has these

47:42moments where we think the world is

47:44about to end.

47:46I had this moment a thousand years ago

47:47at the turn of the first millennium.

47:49Everyone thought this is it's going to

47:50end.

47:51We have this all of the climate

47:53hysteria. The world was supposed to end

47:56six years ago. And you know, you can lay

47:58it out like you did and you're in this

48:00position where well, better to be safe

48:03then if that's the argument and then you

48:04end up giving your power to someone

48:06else. You're saying

48:07>> giving my power to anyone.

48:09>> You're saying it's better that humans

48:11have the power and we regulate it than

48:14that the the the AGI gets ahead and it's

48:17sort of self-recursive improvement and

48:20all of this stuff and it's in control

48:21it's making it so it has its own will it

48:22has its own survival most. But

48:25I don't know I mean I'm not even sure

48:27that the human has the

48:28the best side. All of the people that

48:30proposing be in charge they're all

48:31effective altruists. One of them this

48:34morning her name was Beth Barnes. I did

48:36I mean I saw this this morning. She's

48:38the same person that Anthropic want to

48:40be regulating

48:41AI. She is also saying that closed

48:45borders is immoral. So

48:47it it you're if you're taking the doomer

48:50position I'm taking the it's doomer

48:51doomer. It's lose lose. It's either you

48:54have

48:55actual doom or you have people in charge

48:57making decisions who have just got

48:58twisted morality and end up suppressing

49:02us and you have the totalitarian regime

49:05somehow infringing on our rights

49:07just in in the name of safety and in the

49:10name of protecting us. So that's why I'm

49:12my instinct is to be

49:14to to kind of reject the doomer a little

49:16bit but maybe that's maybe that's my

49:17>> But you're not rejecting the doomer. You

49:18were just saying we shouldn't try to

49:20have world government which I agree with

49:23but you're not rejecting you're not

49:24countering my argument about what

49:26happens when we have AGI.

49:29Right?

49:30>> No, I'm not. No.

49:31>> Yeah. So actually you agree with me

49:34about the likely outcome of all of this.

49:37You just don't want world government

49:39which I don't either. What I'm saying is

49:42we don't have a way to stop this in my

49:44opinion.

49:45But

49:46>> agree I don't agree that there's the end

49:48of the world. I I I

49:50I don't think

49:50>> I think it's the end of the world I just

49:51it's the end of humanity being in charge

49:53and that may mean we get to live on in

49:55some capacity

49:56but that doesn't mean that

49:58>> Yeah, okay. I reject I mean I don't This

50:01is the same argument I've heard from

50:02environmentalists forever. I It maybe it

50:05is. May maybe it is

50:07>> But but this is a difference so you've

50:10got to understand the difference, right?

50:11If you said to me the world's going to

50:13end in six years because of climate

50:15change, I could say well here are the

50:16reasons why it won't. When I say the

50:19world could end in 10 years because of

50:20AI, humanity could end or be subjugated.

50:23You don't have a counter argument.

50:25That's the difference. If I say to you

50:26don't walk down a street in central

50:28London at 9:00 in the morning cuz you'll

50:30be killed, you could say well that's

50:32nonsense but walking down that same

50:34street at 3:00 a.m. in the morning might

50:37get you stabbed or might get you mugged

50:39or might get you attacked. So

50:40>> No, well

50:41no no sorry, it's not it's not entirely

50:43different.

50:44No, because your argument is somewhat

50:46hypothetical. Although we do have

50:48examples of

50:49We have examples of AI acting on that

50:52with their own on their own accord but

50:55we haven't got examples where they're

50:56subjugating humans suddenly. We haven't

50:58because it's not AGI yet.

51:01Yeah, but we don't know that when it is

51:03AGI that it definitely will do that.

51:04>> We don't know that it definitely will do

51:06that except every species that has the

51:08power to subjugate or prey on other

51:10species in the history of this planet

51:13does that if it can.

51:14>> It's not a species.

51:16>> It is a species. You're creating a thing

51:18that thinks and moves by itself. That is

51:21a species.

51:25>> Uh okay, well I get I guess

51:27I guess I'm a

51:28I don't know. I I don't you know.

51:32>> What are you talking about? Anyway, on

51:34that happy note, let's move on to our

51:36final story

51:38which is we're going to have to be

51:40fairly quick about it because we're

51:41running low on time and this is the

51:44story of the migrant camp in a small

51:47village in England. Tom, take it away.

51:50>> Now, it's a remarkable story this, and

51:52this is the tiny village of Piddington

51:54in Oxfordshire, population about 350,

51:58which earlier this year was confronted

51:59by the fact that this

52:01military barracks in nearby Bicester

52:04was going to receive north of 1,200

52:08illegal migrants. The residents of

52:10Piddington did not take particularly

52:12kindly to this development, and they

52:14have now held a vote to secede from the

52:17United Kingdom. It passed

52:19overwhelmingly. They've actually

52:20redubbed themselves the Principality of

52:23Piddington. They haven't quite got to

52:24the point where they, you know, erecting

52:26border posts and seizing the post

52:27office, but it's probably only a matter

52:28of time. And it's become the latest

52:31backlash to the

52:33obviously the ongoing small boats

52:35crisis, but I think in particular Andy

52:37Burnham's attempt to try to just spread

52:40the problem around the country. He said

52:42rightly that the migrant hotels and the

52:45HMOs were disproportionately in poor and

52:47working-class areas cuz the

52:48accommodation is cheaper there, and part

52:50of the solution seemingly has been to

52:52impose this issue on more well-to-do

52:55middle-class areas, of which Piddington

52:56certainly is one. I think what this has

52:58shown is that whereas up till now the

53:00more affluent sections of society

53:02haven't been as exercised by the issue

53:04of illegal migration, the only thing

53:06that required to change that was it

53:07actually affecting their lives directly.

53:10And whilst Piddington is a tiny place,

53:12and it's not necessarily, you know,

53:14indicative of how the entire country is

53:16going to sway, I think it shows that the

53:18longer this crisis goes on, the more

53:20intent the government is on just kind of

53:21sharing the problem out more evenly, the

53:24more opposition it's going to generate.

53:27And I think also speaks finally to some

53:29one slightly underappreciated thing in

53:31our whole migration, and certainly

53:32illegal migration, discussion, is that

53:34this isn't really like a 50/50 issue.

53:36It's not as if you've got half of the

53:38country who thinks it's all fine, and

53:40half of the country who thinks it's

53:42terrible. It's something like 75% of

53:44people when polled will say that they're

53:46concerned about illegal migration. And

53:48also, if you look at the attitudes

53:50towards what should be done about the

53:51issue, it's really hardening. There was

53:53something in the a survey in the Times

53:55the other week which said that 57% of

53:57people now would support detention upon

54:00arrival for illegal migrants {slash}

54:02asylum seekers, depending on your

54:03particular persuasion. So, yeah, it's

54:05the roar of the Waitrose mums.

54:07Um it's the acceptable, if we're being

54:09honest, in as far as the mainstream

54:11media is concerned, backlash against

54:12illegal migration. I can't be the only

54:14one who was struck that they haven't

54:15been called far-right thugs to the same

54:17degree that other migrant hotel

54:19protesters and so on have been called.

54:20But it I think it's it's it's proof that

54:23this issue isn't going anywhere. Even as

54:25the numbers come down, I think people

54:26realize it's not going to zero, and

54:28therefore there's a hell of a lot of

54:30more backlash to come.

54:32>> Francis?

54:32>> Well, one of the one of the things that

54:34I find interesting is you know, Andy

54:36Burnham has basically said, you know,

54:38that we all need to take our share of

54:41the illegal migrants. And what that

54:43effectively means is he's going to put

54:45them in communities which don't

54:47traditionally vote for the Labour Party.

54:49What a coincidence.

54:51But if you

54:52I mean, who would have thunk it, eh? But

54:55the really worrying thing is this.

54:58In nature, when you have vacuums,

55:00vacuums will get filled.

55:02What we have now is a country where it

55:06can't protect its borders, where people

55:08feel that they are no longer able to

55:12trust the government or the police to

55:14keep them safe. And that can only carry

55:16on for a certain matter of time before

55:20people start taking matters into their

55:23own hands. And I am very, very, very

55:26concerned that we are going to see the

55:28rise of vigilante justice, vigilante

55:31groups patrolling the streets, and

55:33vigilante groups patrolling our borders.

55:37I really do think that this is

55:39inevitable and I put the blame solely at

55:43the feet of our current government and

55:46also our previous government before who

55:49quite frankly, in my opinion, have not

55:53done sufficient in order to solve this

55:56crisis.

55:59>> Yeah, sorry. I mean, frankly, it's

56:00already happened. You're you're you're

56:02worried it's about to happen. Danny

56:03Tommo and the Patriotic Platform

56:06it after their their protest down in

56:08Dover the next day

56:09>> Sorry to interrupt. That's one instance,

56:11Winston. I'm talking about it happening

56:13nationwide.

56:15>> Yeah, sure, but it's happening. It's

56:17already happening. They are operating on

56:19a nationwide level. He's got groups and

56:21organizations up and down the country

56:23meetings. And when the state fails to

56:26protect our borders

56:28and people lose faith in the in the

56:30faith in the you know, protection is the

56:31number one responsibility of the state.

56:34If they they they failed that basic task

56:37then little wonder that people will take

56:40it into their their own hands. So, uh

56:43I'm I'm not

56:45I the the the state needs to do that.

56:47Government needs to do that. Burnham,

56:48you you said Tom that

56:5057% think they should be

56:52of the British public should

56:54think that they these people should be

56:55detained upon arrival. They should never

56:58even set foot on British soil. They

57:02shouldn't be here. You as as asylum

57:05seeker is is just a euphemism. They're

57:06illegal migrants. They're all men.

57:08They're all military age men. I mean,

57:10like 99%. You can see the the the images

57:13of them. They shouldn't be in this

57:15country. The the the the fact is Burnham

57:18doesn't have the courage to say we're

57:22going to stop them even arriving here.

57:24I would go further. I've argued to have

57:26a mine floating wall through the middle

57:28of the channel. Now, the the the problem

57:30I think is that they're now really

57:31they're from as far away as Belgium uh

57:34uh

57:34to the east and and even now as we saw

57:37last week they're being

57:39escorted by French uh

57:43officials or

57:45I don't know what the border

57:47guards or whatever across the English

57:49Channel as far away as Normandy. So,

57:52it's it does seem

57:54planned. Patrick Christys was just in

57:56Calais. It looks like the French are

57:58actively trying to make this happen.

58:00They should never even set foot in this

58:02country and until

58:04that overton window shifts. I mean it's

58:06it's already been said on let's say the

58:08right, but that Burnham can't say no.

58:11They should never be here. All of those

58:13people in detention centers, get them on

58:14a plane and get them out of here. They

58:16all came here illegally. If you come

58:18here illegally, you are a criminal. Get

58:21out of it.

58:23>> What was interesting is Francis and I

58:24had Dan Hodges on Triggernometry earlier

58:27this week

58:28having a discussion about this very

58:30issue. And Dan is a very articulate and

58:33reasonable-sounding voice of the sort of

58:36Westminster consensus, which is nothing

58:39can be done about this. Legally, it's a

58:42minefield. You can't you know, you can't

58:44deal with the French etc. And what was

58:46interesting is

58:47we kind of I can't remember if

58:50if it was myself or Francis book. Dan I

58:52thought made some really good points

58:54actually in that interview, but there

58:55was one moment that that really stood

58:57out for us, which is

58:58when he said, "Well, so what are you

59:01going to do in response? Invade France?"

59:03And that's when we were like, "Hold on a

59:05second." So, if we if we turn Yeah, I

59:08made the same point, Winston. Invading

59:09France is a traditional British pastime,

59:11but but more importantly than that

59:15the moment we tow a boat into their

59:18waters, that's an invasion. Yet, when

59:21tens of thousands of people come in on

59:23boats into our country, you're not

59:25allowed to call that an invasion?

59:27Hello? What's going on here? Some And

59:30so, I just think And I remember actually

59:32when we had Kemi on the show, when

59:33shortly after she became leader of the

59:35Conservatives, and she said this thing

59:37We said, "Well, why can't we just get

59:39the Royal Navy to to tow these boats

59:40back?" Or whatever. And she said, "Well,

59:43you know, I've spoken to people in the

59:44Navy and said They said there may be

59:46loss of life, and they said that's not

59:48what they signed up for."

59:50I go, "Hold on."

59:52Well, the Royal Navy's explicit purpose,

59:55I think, is to sink boats. I'm not

59:58saying we should treat

1:00:00migrant boats as hostile enemy and and

1:00:04shoot at them necessarily. Well, I'm not

1:00:06saying that. I'm not saying we should do

1:00:07that. But

1:00:08>> There There is already loss of life.

1:00:10>> Yeah.

1:00:11>> We We've And I don't mean those dying on

1:00:12the boats. Riain ain't white, killed by

1:00:14one of these illegal migrants. There's

1:00:17plenty of example. Wayne Broadhurst.

1:00:18There's loads of examples.

1:00:20>> Yeah, exactly. But my my point is is

1:00:23that I think in the Westminster bubble,

1:00:25there has to be a massive attitude

1:00:28adjustment, which will only come when,

1:00:30as Tom rightly says, the mood about this

1:00:33in the country hardens. So, in a way,

1:00:35this is a crass thing to say. And, you

1:00:37know, as you guys know, I covered the

1:00:39Crowborough protest, which is only down

1:00:40the road from me, about the camp there.

1:00:44People change their mind when their

1:00:45reality, their day-to-day experience

1:00:47changes. And so, in some way, even

1:00:48though it's something that affects me

1:00:50and people around me, I have to say,

1:00:51long may this continue. And I hope

1:00:53there's one of these little camps in

1:00:55every village where everyone votes Lib

1:00:56Dem and Green. Cuz then, at least, these

1:00:58idiots will stop voting for parties that

1:01:01actually want this to continue.

1:01:04>> DON'T SAY THAT. I'M SURROUNDED BY THESE

1:01:06[ __ ] idiots.

1:01:07>> Yeah, mate. I I think there should be a

1:01:09giant camp for migrants in the middle of

1:01:11Crow Town. So, all you [ __ ] get to

1:01:14experience [laughter] what the rest of

1:01:15us have to deal with.

1:01:16>> How am I going to get my overpriced

1:01:17pastries and coffee if I have to go via

1:01:19a migrant camp?

1:01:21>> May- maybe [clears throat] you'll going

1:01:22to Deliveroo [laughter] is going to get

1:01:23a lot more cheaper a lot cheaper and

1:01:25more efficient. It's going to you you're

1:01:27going to get your latte delivered to

1:01:28your door.

1:01:31>> Well, that's all right then. Let's crack

1:01:32on.

1:01:33>> He's He's crappy. [laughter] On that

1:01:35note, of finally of agreement, I'm sure

1:01:37all of these issues will be discussed

1:01:38and debated on Off The Fence in the

1:01:40weeks to come. Uh thank you so much for

1:01:42being here, guys, and thank you all for

1:01:44watching and listening. We'll see you

1:01:46next week.