JPMorgan Just Put A Date On Bitcoin's Bull Market

0:00Bitcoin has been the worst trade in

0:01finance for 10 months. It's down 49%

0:05while stocks just can't stop making

0:06all-time highs. And the biggest banks in

0:08America spent those exact same 10 months

0:11quietly building the machinery to sell

0:13it to you. Because those banks just made

0:15three moves in the last 30 days that

0:17have never happened at the same time in

0:19Bitcoin's history. And the last time the

0:21American financial system repositioned

0:23this quietly and this far ahead of the

0:25public, it was 1971. Richard Nixon went

0:28on television on a Sunday night and told

0:30the country that the dollar was no

0:31longer backed by gold and over the next

0:3310 years, the dollar lost more than half

0:36of its purchasing power. JP Morgan filed

0:38a legal document with the United States

0:39government for a product that pays out

0:41on December 21st, 2028. And it only

0:44makes money if Bitcoin is dramatically

0:46higher than it is today. Morgan Stanley

0:48put Bitcoin at 2% of a $130 trillion

0:51market and then told its 16,000

0:53financial advisors who manage $2

0:55trillion of other people's money to

0:57start allocating to it. And BlackRock

0:59and Wells Fargo built this asset's

1:01plumbing directly into the American

1:03banking system. Three of the largest

1:04financial institutions in the country in

1:06the same 30 days positioning Bitcoin in

1:09the same direction. Now, here's what

1:11Bitcoin did over those exact same 30

1:13days. $130 million was stolen out of the

1:15most secure Bitcoin wallets on Earth and

1:18the price didn't move at all. The stock

1:20market hit $70 trillion for the first

1:22time in history and again, Bitcoin

1:24didn't move at all. So, nothing can hurt

1:26this thing, but nothing can move it

1:28either. So, if you own it, you've

1:30probably spent the last 10 months being

1:31told that you were wrong. But by the end

1:33of this video, you're going to see the

1:34four stages money moves through before

1:36it ever touches the price, which one of

1:38those stages we're sitting in right now

1:40for Bitcoin, and what the date on JP

1:42Morgan's filing says about when they

1:44think the bull market ends. Because

1:47you're not early and you're not wrong,

1:48you're somewhere much more specific than

1:50that. And chances are, you're on the

1:52cusp of the next Bitcoin bull market.

1:54Let's get into it. So, here's the thing

1:55that almost nobody staring at a price

1:57chart understands. And once you see it,

1:59you cannot unsee it. Every Bitcoin bull

2:01run before this one ran bottom-up. So,

2:04what do I mean by that? Well, retail

2:05investors bought first, and then at the

2:07wealthy individuals, and then companies,

2:09and then right at the very top,

2:11institutions showed up just in time to

2:13buy the highs and get flattened. But

2:15this one is running the machine

2:17backwards. And this backwards-running

2:19machine has four stages. Stage one is

2:22that somebody builds a product. Stage

2:24two is that a platform approves it.

2:25Stage three is that the advisors get

2:27permission to sell it. And stage four,

2:29and only then, the money actually moves.

2:32Remember those four stages because I'm

2:33going to come back to them. And here's

2:35the punchline. Stages one, two, and

2:37three are lawyers, compliance officers,

2:39and paperwork. None of it touches the

2:41Bitcoin price chart. All of it takes

2:43years. But stage four is the only one

2:45that anybody ever notices. And by the

2:46time you notice it, it's already priced

2:48in. And we are sitting in stage three

2:51right now. Before I show you what the

2:53banks did, I have to show you what

2:54Bitcoin did because the contrast is the

2:56entire case here. We are 340 days into

2:59this Bitcoin bear market, down 49% from

3:02$126,000. And here's a number that

3:05actually hurts. If you put $10,000 into

3:07Bitcoin 5 years ago, you have roughly

3:09$10,000 today. But it's even worse than

3:12that because inflation took more than

3:1420% out of those dollars in the

3:15meantime. So, in real terms, if you put

3:1710 grand into Bitcoin 5 years ago,

3:19holding the hardest asset ever created

3:22lost you money for half a decade.

3:24Daily trading volume across every

3:26Bitcoin exchange on Earth is about $4

3:28billion right now, which is the lowest

3:29since November of 2023. But watch what

3:32happens when you line up the last 30

3:34days of news against the price. An

3:36attacker exploited a 5-year-old flaw in

3:39the Coldcard hardware wallets and

3:40drained over 13,000 Bitcoin, more than

3:42$130 million. That is the worst

3:44self-custody failure in this asset's

3:46history, and it hit the single most

3:48security-obsessed group of Bitcoin

3:50holders alive. But the price dipped

3:51about 2% and took it all back within

3:54days. We also had Michael Saylor, which

3:56is the largest corporate buyer in

3:57history, selling 1,638

4:00Bitcoin. This is his third major sale

4:02since June. He hasn't bought any Bitcoin

4:04since nearly 2 months ago. And as you

4:06can see here, once he announced it,

4:07Bitcoin went up 2 and 1/2%. Nearly every

4:11major mining operation in America has

4:13been selling the machines and

4:15re-pointing their electricity at AI.

4:17They've been becoming AI data centers.

4:19Bitcoin hash rate is down about 23% from

4:21the peak, meaning that 23% less

4:23computing power is actually working on

4:25the Bitcoin network. And again,

4:26Bitcoin's price hasn't moved at all.

4:28Now, if you've been here a while, you

4:29know that I've been telling you since

4:31the spring that this bear market is

4:32governed by four headwinds: war, then

4:35oil, then inflation, and then the Fed.

4:36Well, three of those fired exactly as I

4:39said they would. The fourth one, the

4:40Fed, is still sitting on this market.

4:42And the Fed chair got more hawkish last

4:44week, not less. So, I was right about

4:47all of the headwinds, but here's what I

4:49got wrong. I assumed that while those

4:50headwinds were blowing, the

4:52institutional side would be frozen, too.

4:54But it wasn't frozen, it accelerated.

4:56Because a market that refuses to fall on

4:58catastrophic news is telling you

5:00something very specific. Everyone who

5:02wanted out is already out. What's left

5:05is a floor. And something has been

5:06getting built underneath that floor for

5:08the last 10 months. Real quick, before

5:10we get into what JP Morgan actually

5:11filed, if you think this thing is

5:13already bottomed, comment the word floor

5:15below. But if you think there's one more

5:17leg down, comment lower. One word,

5:19that's all. And I'll be down there

5:21replying to each and every one of you.

5:22And look, about 84% of you watching this

5:24right now aren't subscribed. So, if

5:26you're getting something out of this,

5:27hit subscribe, drop a like, and turn the

5:28bell on so these videos actually reach

5:30you. It helps the channel more than

5:31you'd think, and it costs you about 2

5:33seconds. Now, back into the show. So,

5:35stage one is somebody building the

5:37product. And the product

5:39product JP Morgan built has a date on it

5:42that I think is the single most

5:43important number in this market right

5:44now.

5:45On a Monday in November, JP Morgan Chase

5:48filed a prospectus with the Securities

5:49and Exchange Commission. Not a research

5:51note, not an analyst on television, a

5:53legal offering document issued by JP

5:56Morgan Chase Financial Company, fully

5:57guaranteed by JP Morgan Chase and

5:59Company itself. Their own balance sheet

6:01stands behind it. Now, what is this

6:03product? Well, the product is a

6:04structured note tied to BlackRock's

6:06Bitcoin ETF, and the mechanics are the

6:08whole story. If the ETF is above a set

6:11level on the review date, the note gets

6:14automatically called and the buyer

6:15collects a premium of at least $160 on

6:19every thousand, 16%. If it's below that

6:22level, the note doesn't get called, it

6:23stays alive. And it stays alive until

6:26December 21st, 2028, at which point the

6:29buyer receives 1 and 1/2 times whatever

6:30the ETF has gained. See what what that

6:32structure is actually saying? JP Morgan

6:34built a product that assumes Bitcoin is

6:36soft in the near term and dramatically

6:38higher 3 years from now. They didn't put

6:40that in an outlook piece that they can

6:42quietly walk back later, they encoded it

6:44into the payout math of a security that

6:46they're legally obligated to honor. And

6:48the reporting on the filing is explicit

6:50about why. The note is built around the

6:52four-year Bitcoin cycle. Weakness for 2

6:55years after the Bitcoin halving, and

6:56then strength going into the next one.

6:59Well, the last halving was 2024, 2 years

7:01after 2024 is right now, this month. So,

7:04the biggest bank in the United States

7:06looked at that exact flat, dead, boring

7:09chart that you and I have been staring

7:10at for the last several months and said,

7:12"That is the part where it's supposed to

7:13stay flat." And then they wrote a

7:14contract that pays out on the other side

7:16of it. That's stage one. The product

7:18exists, but a product with nowhere to go

7:20is just paperwork, which brings us to

7:22the firm that drew the map. Stage two is

7:25a platform proving it. And Morgan

7:27Stanley just published the single most

7:29useful number about Bitcoin that anyone

7:31in Wall Street has put out this year.

7:33Their strategist asked a very simple

7:34question, "How much money in the world

7:36is just looking for somewhere to sit?"

7:38Not chasing growth, not buying

7:39companies, money whose only job is to

7:42hold value. So, checking accounts,

7:44savings, short-term deposits, the M2

7:46money supply, plus gold, plus Bitcoin.

7:49Well, their number is a hundred and

7:51thirty trillion dollars. Bitcoin's

7:53market cap against that is about 1.2

7:55trillion dollars. So, divide one into

7:57the other and you get Bitcoin's share of

7:59the world savings, and it's just 1%. 1%

8:03after 17 years, after the ETFs, after

8:05Saylor, after 126,000 dollar highs, and

8:08every single institution on earth being

8:10forced to have an opinion about it,

8:12Bitcoin has captured just 1 cent out of

8:14every dollar that is sitting around

8:15looking for a home. And Morgan Stanley's

8:17own stated view is that if user growth

8:20continues, Bitcoin outperforms. They

8:22filed it under store of value and

8:24financial asset. The one real risk that

8:26they name isn't regulation, and it's not

8:28volatility, and it's not the folks over

8:30in Washington D.C. It is a failure of

8:32the encryption itself. That's the bear

8:34case from a firm managing trillions.

8:36Bitcoin's math somehow has to break, and

8:39if that doesn't happen, it's going up

8:41forever. So, JP Morgan built a vehicle

8:43and Morgan Stanley drew the map of where

8:44Bitcoin is going. Neither of those moves

8:47a single dollar. The dollars move at

8:49stage three, and stage three happened

8:51just three weeks ago. By the way, I run

8:53a community for serious Bitcoin

8:55investors called the Hard Money Room.

8:57Weekly live discussions with me, plus a

8:58live dashboard I built that scores

9:00exactly where we are in the Bitcoin

9:01cycle. The link for that is at the top

9:03of the description. Now, stage three is

9:05the one nobody talks about, and it's the

9:07only stage that actually opens the

9:10floodgates into Bitcoin. Morgan

9:11Stanley's Global Investment Committee

9:13sets strategy for 16,000 financial

9:15advisors managing roughly two trillion

9:17dollars of other people's retirement

9:19money. And that committee's formal

9:21guidance is now a two to four percent

9:23Bitcoin allocation. If you run the

9:25arithmetic on that, two percent of two

9:27trillion dollars is forty billion

9:29dollars. Four percent is eighty billion

9:30dollars. Now, here's the scale for your

9:32reference. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have

9:34taken in about fifty-two billion dollars

9:36in total since they launched

9:38cumulatively across their entire

9:39existence. One wealth committee at one

9:41bank just wrote guidance that if it's

9:43actually implemented is the size of the

9:45entire ETF era all over again. And

9:49that's just one firm. Wells Fargo is

9:50also rolling out tokenized deposits to

9:52commercial clients. BlackRock launched

9:54two tokenized money market funds.

9:56JPMorgan and City already run those

9:58rails. Coinbase added 819 Bitcoin to its

10:02own balance sheet this quarter. Taking

10:04it to 17,311,

10:07which makes it the ninth largest public

10:08company holder in the world. And a $17

10:11billion Louisiana State Pension Fund

10:13government employees retirement money

10:15quietly increased its Bitcoin exposure

10:17straight through the drawdown. And this

10:19week, while the entire Bitcoin internet

10:21was arguing about a hardware wallet

10:22exploit, the ETFs took in over $600

10:26million.

10:27Every single day since the hack growing

10:28every day. That is the tell. The retail

10:31conversation was about a security

10:33failure, but the institutional flow ran

10:36in the opposite direction on the same

10:37days in size. Now, a quick word from

10:40today's video sponsor. If you want to

10:42skip this one, go to this timestamp

10:44right here. You know how I feel. I don't

10:45think you should be selling your

10:47Bitcoin, but sometimes you need cash. A

10:49bill, a tax hit, an opportunity. And

10:51that's why I teamed up with Salt.

10:52Instead of selling, you borrow against

10:55your Bitcoin. No credit checks and you

10:57keep every single sat. These guys are

10:59the real deal. They're the original

11:00Bitcoin back lenders since 2016,

11:02battle-tested through every cycle, and

11:04still standing while a lot of crypto

11:06lenders blew up. I worked out an

11:07exclusive deal just for you. A rate

11:09discount on a new loan plus a free

11:11Bitcoin borrowing playbook at

11:12saltlending.com/joe.

11:15That's saltlending.com/joe. Link in the

11:17description. Never sell your Bitcoin,

11:19borrow against it. Special thanks to

11:20Salt Lending for sponsoring today's

11:21video. And now, back to the show. So,

11:23that's it. Three stages done and one to

11:26go. And the buyer at stage four isn't a

11:29wealth platform at all. Here's the part

11:31I think almost nobody has priced in, and

11:33it has nothing to do with Wall Street.

11:35Stage four is when the money actually

11:37moves. After all of this infrastructure

11:38gets built and the bull market finally

11:40begins as a result of it, what money

11:42actually flows in? This hasn't happened

11:44yet. If it had, you'd be watching a

11:46video about why Bitcoin is boring.

11:48Obviously, you're going to see the

11:49typical institutional inflows and the

11:51retail inflows, but the next major wave

11:53of demand probably won't come from

11:55wealth management at all. It's going to

11:57come from governments, and not the ones

11:59that you're expecting. The reason

12:00Bitcoin was useful in the first place is

12:02that the United States has weaponized

12:03the dollar. If your accounts can be

12:05frozen by a decision made in Washington,

12:07and your money can be printed away at

12:08free will, you need a store of value

12:11that can't be. That is a financial choke

12:13point. Now, look at what's happening in

12:14the Strait of Hormuz right now. Oman has

12:17told the United States that there is no

12:19version of reopening the strait without

12:21tolls and fees. That is a country with

12:23one of the most critical waterways on

12:25the planet with its hand on the physical

12:27valve of global energy demanding to be

12:29paid for it. The argument is very

12:31simple. You have two choke points that

12:32are colliding. The people collecting

12:34tolls on the most important shipping

12:36lane on Earth are going to want to be

12:37paid in something that Washington cannot

12:39freeze. Prisoners of geography meeting

12:42prisoners of money printing. And this

12:44has already started. Russia's state has

12:46passed a law recognizing Bitcoin as

12:47property and legalizing it for

12:49international trade settlement. Bhutan

12:51has pledged 10,000 Bitcoin, about $640

12:54million, to fund a special economic

12:56zone. 16,000 advisors at $2 trillion is

13:00a big number. But the world sanctioned

13:02trade flows are much bigger one. Which

13:04brings me back to where we started, and

13:06to the only thing I actually need you to

13:07take away from this. We have four

13:09stages: product, platform, permission,

13:11and flows. JP Morgan built a product and

13:13dated it December 21st, 2028. Morgan

13:16Stanley drew the map and put Bitcoin at

13:182% of $130 trillion.

13:2116,000 advisors just got permission to

13:23begin actively recommending it to all of

13:25of clients, and flows are the only thing

13:28left. And every single one of those

13:29things happened during the worst 10

13:31months this asset has ever had. Not

13:32before it, not after it, but during it.

13:35While the price did nothing, while

13:36Saylor was selling, while miners were

13:37unplugging, while $130 million was

13:39stolen from cold storage. I opened this

13:41video by telling you that in 1971, Nixon

13:44went on television on a Sunday night and

13:45the country found out the rules had

13:47changed after the fact. That's how this

13:49always works. The repositioning happens

13:50quietly, the announcement comes later,

13:52and the people who moved first were

13:54reading paperwork that nobody else

13:56bothered to read. The paperwork is

13:57public. The date is December 21st, 2028.

14:00And the thing on the other side of that

14:01trade is the hardest asset that has ever

14:03existed, currently on sale because

14:05everybody got bored. Bitcoin isn't quiet

14:07because nothing is happening. It's quiet

14:08because what's happening doesn't reach a

14:10price chart until the very last step.

14:13And that $130 million hack that I

14:14mentioned earlier is the single clearest

14:16proof that bad news has stopped

14:18impacting Bitcoin's price and the bottom

14:20is very close. I broke down exactly how

14:21it happened, how they got in, and what

14:23it means for your own Bitcoin in my last

14:25video. And it's a piece directly

14:26underneath this one. Go check that one

14:27out if you haven't already, and I'll see

14:28you over there. Hit the join button down

14:30below to support the channel and become

14:31a member. And if you haven't already,

14:32hit subscribe and turn on the bell to

14:34get notified whenever new video goes

14:35live. Check out the hard money room at

14:36the link at the very top of the

14:37description, and book a one-on-one

14:38session with me at the link down below.

14:40I'll see you in the next one.