BTC: Elliott Wave Analysis Price Prediction | 1hr | Bitcoin Forecast & Key Levels

0:00Hi everyone, shortly covering here my

0:011-hour time frame analysis on Bitcoin.

0:04So, the bullish scenario would be an ABC

0:07to the downside with a diagonal in wave

0:10C, which could be finished at this low,

0:12possibly still unfinished for a 1 2 3 4

0:155, but still after one more low, you

0:17would expect a move back towards the

0:20upside to basically continue the larger

0:22range that we're in. If price were to

0:24move towards the upside to 78.4 K, then

0:28wave C has to be end at this low because

0:30this is an invalidation for a a

0:33contracting diagonal wave four, so you

0:35cannot count 1 2 3 4 and then look for

0:39another five towards the downside.

0:41If wave C would be end at this low, we

0:44would at least expect a structure to the

0:46upside or a sideways corrective movement

0:48to end after the 0.382 sitting at 1:15

0:52p.m. on the 4th of September Central

0:55European Time. Be aware that an ABC to

0:59the downside can merge into larger

1:01corrective structures. And then we get

1:03to two bearish scenarios. The first one

1:05is a multi 1 2 doesn't look very good,

1:08let's be honest. The first multi 1 2

1:11option without counting a diagonal would

1:12basically be 1 2 1 2 1 2 and etc. etc. 1

1:162 1 2.

1:17The thing here is that the latest wave

1:20one is about what? Five times the size

1:22in time compared to the wave one before,

1:25which negatively impacts the

1:26probabilities as ideally

1:29a lower degree wave one, yeah, about

1:32five six times the size. So, ideally a

1:34lower degree wave one and two is a

1:36little bit shorter in time and size

1:38compared to the 1 2 of a higher degree

1:39or similar in time. So, what you

1:41generally see with a multi 1 2 is like

1:44this, like a 1 2 1 2 1 2 and eventually

1:48you get that drop.

1:50That is not really what we see here. We

1:53would count a multi 1 2 that way. The

1:55other option here is counting one, two,

1:58and then a diagonal in the lower degree

2:00one. But of course, the problem here is

2:02that your lower degree wave one is still

2:04going to be very long in time compared

2:07to your higher degree wave one, at least

2:10five times with the potential of even

2:13longer if you create another low. This

2:15diagonal, by the way, in the bearish

2:17multi one, two, this one here, is

2:19exactly the same as the ending diagonal

2:22wave C. So, therefore, the invalidation

2:24for an unfinished diagonal is the same

2:28as well. But you have to be aware that

2:30as per the

2:32Elliott Wave Principle book, a ending

2:35diagonal has higher probabilities than a

2:37leading diagonal.

2:39Wave C diagonal is an ending diagonal.

2:43In the multi one, two, we are counting a

2:45leading diagonal. So, initially, an ABC

2:48would have higher probabilities because

2:49ending diagonal compared to a leading

2:52diagonal in another wave one.

2:54With then the alternative multi one, two

2:55option being this, but then we struggle

2:58with time for the latest wave one here

3:02to the downside. So, that is not ideal.

3:06Now, I haven't yet forgotten about the

3:08potential of W, X, and just an A, B, and

3:11a C down in a wave Y. I'm just shooting

3:13it in here. I actually don't have it in

3:15my folders at the moment, but this is

3:17still a scenario that I do have in my

3:20mind. A double zigzag, one second.

3:23I'm a little bit sick, so just a tickle.

3:26Don't want you guys to hear it, of

3:27course. So, WXY to the downside, a

3:30double zigzag, it's still something I

3:31have at least in my vision. And then if

3:34price were to take out the low, you

3:35still expect price to eventually go back

3:37up, right? You take the low, you might

3:39go a little bit deeper to grab some

3:40liquidity and move into lower support,

3:42but you would then still expect to move

3:44back to the upside after wave Y. You

3:46would expect the high to be taken. Even

3:48a WXY here to the downside would at the

3:50moment have higher probabilities than

3:52one of the two multi one two variations.

3:56And then we have the other bearish

3:57scenario, which is basically one large

4:00diagonal to the downside since the high.

4:021 2 3 4 5 ideally to have a bit of a

4:06better ratio between the wave four and

4:08the wave two. The other scenario would

4:10be 1 2 3 4 5 like this.

4:14But wave four would be quite tiny uh

4:17compared to wave two, but you know, it's

4:18it's a possibility. If price were to

4:21move to the upside 78.8k, you would end

4:23wave one or A at this low. But again,

4:25this is a leading diagonal.

4:27Lower probabilities than an ending

4:29diagonal uh besides the fact that a

4:32leading diagonal in general has lower

4:35probabilities than a corrective

4:36structure or a multi one two.

4:39So, ideally,

4:41if price moves up to 78.8k,

4:43a corrective structure to the downside

4:45here automatically higher probabilities

4:48than

4:49a bearish diagonal like this and a multi

4:51one two at that time would then be

4:53invalidated. So, that is something to at

4:56least uh be aware of, I suppose.

5:00And then we get to the levels. So,

5:01levels of support and resistance. Price

5:04moved towards the upside into the range

5:05point of control 78k. That is the range

5:07point of control of this section over

5:09here and you can see local areas of

5:11support resistance. Price moved into the

5:13daily naked point of control. So, first

5:15of all, price took out this low very

5:17nicely. That was the probabilities of

5:18the previous video.

5:20But as price was moving to the downside

5:22here, we saw it slow down. This is what

5:24I always talk about, trend and turn,

5:26cone theory. Overlap in the beginning,

5:28sharp move in the middle, then you see

5:30ranges coming back. You see prices

5:32moving from vertical price action to

5:34more horizontal, which means you are

5:37looking for a bounce back towards the

5:40upside. And that is what I put in

5:42Discord here, as well.

5:43So, at 1:00 p.m., price touched the

5:46daily naked point of control and I'm

5:48basically talking at well or about about

5:50the fact one second.

5:53Yo, my throat, eh.

5:54About the fact that we're looking for a

5:56bounce towards the upside. The 382 would

5:58be at least a minimum target and time

5:59wise the minimum target for a bounce

6:02after an impulse down would be the 382

6:04at 3:30 p.m. on the 2nd of of September.

6:08So, those are basically like minimum

6:09targets one then keeps in mind and then

6:12you know, price just created higher

6:14highs and higher lows locally to keep

6:16things relatively easy. It's a messy

6:18move, but

6:20yeah, this is the areas of support

6:21resistance with that daily naked point

6:23of control at 76270

6:25already touched. So, then we get to the

6:29conclusion here. The bias at the moment

6:31is range slash upside and I want to be

6:35specific here saying that if price takes

6:38out 76.2k, that is absolutely fine.

6:42Right, that's absolutely fine. You would

6:43expect a move back towards the upside

6:45afterwards. If you take out this low, we

6:47could look for a diagonal wave five and

6:49the move towards the upside or we still

6:51have that WXY

6:53wave Y. Maybe go a bit lower to 75ish,

6:56whatever, right? 74 high and then move

6:59back towards the upside to just continue

7:01this range for a longer period of time

7:05where

7:06the bias at the moment still of this

7:09retracement since the high would still

7:11be to eventually take out 81.5k. That

7:13hasn't really changed. Uh as the

7:15probabilities are higher this is a you

7:18know, a corrective corrective movement.

7:20So,

7:21um yeah, that is that is the overall

7:24bias.

7:25If you do take out that 76.2k low, just

7:28look for areas of support, consider wave

7:30five diagonal or a WXY and then for a

7:33move back towards the upside afterwards.

7:36Uh with the bearish multi one twos,

7:39multi one two to lower probabilities.

7:42Now, good to know an ending diagonal has

7:45higher probabilities than a leading

7:46diagonal initially as per the Elliott

7:48Wave principle, which means an ending

7:51diagonal for example in the wave C has

7:52higher probabilities than counting 1 2 1

7:552 where the second one is a leading

7:56diagonal.

7:58A larger diagonal possible lower

8:01probabilities than a corrective

8:02structure because that's the way Elliott

8:04Wave Theory places the diagonal against

8:07a corrective structures or a multi one

8:09two for that matter.

8:10You only increase a larger diagonal in

8:13probabilities if the move towards the

8:15upside afterwards is a high probability

8:17corrective structure. That is the moment

8:20where a diagonal to the downside can

8:21become a serious option.

8:24Aware that an ABC to the downside can

8:26merge into a larger corrective

8:27structure. Just for awareness. If price

8:29can move towards the upside to 78.8k,

8:32then the probabilities are high that

8:33something here is finished at this a

8:35particular low.

8:37All right, so we have then the ABC

8:40finished at that low or of course we

8:42have to count it as a as a one or an A,

8:44but that 78.8k

8:46would be the highest level if I put

8:48everything on, turn everything on. 78.8k

8:51is basically the highest wave four

8:53diagonal invalidation. So, if you move

8:55up and reach that, something has to be

8:57finished at that particular low at least

9:00when we consider the diagonals. The

9:01invalidation for a WXY to the downside,

9:04a double zigzag, right? A WX and then

9:07ABCY would be moving above 79.2k. So, if

9:10you move above 79.2k,

9:12you're not looking for wave C of Y

9:14anymore.

9:15And in that case,

9:18a double zigzag to the downside looks

9:20very very unlikely.

9:22If locally price moves down now and

9:25reaches 77.1k first, I haven't really

9:27shown the local analysis, but if you

9:29take out 77.1k, the bias would be to

9:32take out the 76k low.

9:34And that is because your only bullish

9:36option would be an expanding diagonal,

9:38which is rare and never preferred unless

9:39everything else fails. So a corrective

9:41structure to the upside would have

9:42higher probabilities.

9:44The only way to change that is that the

9:46retracement down becomes a corrective

9:49movement, which is something we then

9:50have to observe because if this is going

9:51to be proven corrective, meaning you

9:54can't count an impulse multi-1-2 or a

9:55diagonal to the downside, well, you must

9:57go back up.

9:59To either continue this range more

10:00sideways or this is expanding diagonal

10:021A and you look eventually for a C3. So

10:06something to at least I suppose be aware

10:08of 77.1K.

10:10So

10:12not necessarily as detailed sometimes

10:14this video

10:16as I regularly do, but I'm just sharing

10:19my thoughts, sharing what I'm looking

10:21for, [snorts] the options that I have in

10:23mind.

10:24And I think the most important

10:25conclusion of this video is that a

10:29multi-1-2 to the downside where you

10:31basically look for a straight line down

10:33like

10:34a straight move down like this or 1-2

10:37within a diagonal in the second 1-2 and

10:39a straight line down.

10:42Doesn't look very good. It just doesn't

10:44look very good. It's difficult to give

10:46this the highest probabilities when we

10:48consider the different options. It would

10:50still make more sense to then count

10:51something corrective or even for the

10:53bears have a move towards the upside

10:56after maybe a larger diagonal and then

10:58still continue this range for a bit

10:59longer before later maybe moving down.

11:01So yeah, this is currently what I'm

11:04looking for and currently what I have in

11:05mind. So thank you for watching.

11:07Hopefully you find this video helpful or

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11:21next one. Bye-bye.