BTC: Elliott Wave Analysis Price Prediction | Weekly & 15m | Bitcoin Forecast & Key Levels

0:00Hi everyone, short update here on

0:01Bitcoin covering the weekly and the

0:0215-minute time frame. And on the weekly

0:04time frame, I mainly want to talk about

0:07some confusion that appeared on one of

0:10my recent videos where I said that the

0:12bullish scenario on the daily time frame

0:14is a five-wave structure, which is

0:16correct because a five-wave impulse to

0:18the upside is your bullish scenario.

0:21While the bearish scenario would be an

0:22ABC in comparison or a WXY in

0:25comparison. A three-wave move would be

0:27bearish, five-wave move is bullish. It

0:30does not immediately mean that if a

0:33bullish scenario on the daily time frame

0:35would have higher probabilities, that

0:37the low on the weekly is in. Because a

0:40five-wave move towards the upside might

0:43as well be

0:45a wave C

0:46of a that structure, which is, if I open

0:50one of my folders, I have it somewhere.

0:51For example, this.

0:53Now, of course, with regards to cycle

0:55theory, getting another move down will

0:57definitely

0:59end a bear market at the latest stage,

1:01but just be aware that an impulse to the

1:04upside locally does not mean that the

1:07low is in. What the bulls need to see is

1:11a five-wave move up followed by a

1:13corrective move down. That is a must for

1:16the bulls. While the bears can have a

1:19corrective move up, they can have a

1:21five-wave move to the upside followed

1:22then by a motive wave to the downside,

1:24so a five-wave move to the downside.

1:27But, the bulls only have one option

1:30on the weekly time frame. And that is

1:32getting a five-wave move towards the

1:34upside

1:36followed by a three-wave corrective

1:38structure down, after which they look

1:39for price to move up.

1:41If you get a five-wave move to the

1:43upside followed

1:45by a five-wave structure to the

1:46downside, three waves up, you would look

1:48for continuation to the downside. Okay?

1:52So, this move to the upside is really

1:54important.

1:55If price would move down to the 618 here

2:00without making another high, 69.6k by

2:03the way,

2:04the probabilities are very high that

2:06this is a three-wave structure.

2:08Move down, touch the 618, probability is

2:10very high you're going to take out 57k

2:13at some point.

2:14The bulls need a five-wave structure,

2:16while the bears can both get a five-wave

2:19structure to the upside

2:20as well as a three-wave structure.

2:22Of course, in previous content I'm

2:24covering the local range and those

2:25probabilities haven't changed, but I

2:28think this is important to realize on a

2:30weekly time frame there is no guarantee

2:32that a low is in. Even though on a daily

2:35time frame your bullish scenario is an

2:37impulse because it's a five-wave move

2:39you look for higher. While the bearish

2:41case naturally is a corrective structure

2:43to the upside like an ABC.

2:45Um

2:46Okay.

2:47Then we get to the a 15-minute time

2:49frame. So we zoom in drastically.

2:53And the price here made a low on

2:55support. We had a gap level here, weekly

2:57gap level.

2:59Now locally

3:00if price takes out this low here at 78

3:0376.7k, the probabilities are high you're

3:06going to take out this low as well at

3:0776.4k, and then we'll have to see how

3:10far price goes. The bullish case locally

3:13would be a multi one two, but the 886 is

3:15now touched so that lowers the

3:17probabilities for a multi one two or a

3:19diagonal. But for a diagonal here, you

3:23don't want uh this low of two to be

3:25taken as well. So

3:27of course it's already very low.

3:29It got very close to taking out 76.7 at

3:33the time of recording, but it's not

3:34taken. But just be aware that that is

3:36the bias locally on the 15-minute time

3:38frame. If you take out this low here at

3:4076.7, probabilities are high you're

3:42going to eventually take out this low

3:44and look for lower.

3:46Uh there's still multiple scenarios here

3:49that we have going on on a one-hour,

3:51four-hour time frame. I don't

3:52necessarily want to go into much detail,

3:54but we have the WXY here. We have a

3:56potential like either either a small

3:59diagonal for an an ABC to the downside

4:02like A, B, and a a diagonal C. Either a

4:04larger diagonal is still an option as

4:06well.

4:07A or sorry, 1 2 3 4 and eventually wave

4:10five, which is C of a flat or a

4:12potential A or 1 of course.

4:15Uh the bearish scenario is still active.

4:16So, the bearish scenario you

4:19don't want to change structure, process

4:21to create lower highs, lower lows. Every

4:23move towards the upside should be

4:24corrective. Uh and if that's the case,

4:26you look for lower and lower and lower.

4:28And at some point, you're going to end

4:29up very low, right?

4:31The bulls really need price to move to

4:32the upside, 79.4k.

4:35Uh take out that high to really

4:38uh

4:38put probabilities in their favor.

4:40Uh if we just look at this objectively,

4:43right? So,

4:44it is really important to know

4:47what the bearish scenario is even though

4:49you're in a uptrend here.

4:51Because the bearish scenario will tell

4:53you

4:55what level has to be taken

4:57to really look for upside again, have

5:00probabilities, you know, in your favor.

5:02And of course, on the daily time frame,

5:04the probabilities remain higher by the

5:06way that we're looking for a wave four

5:07and five because of the extension as per

5:09previous content. So, ideally, we are

5:11looking for a range here in a wave four,

5:13which automatically means you get a

5:15retracement and eventually you look for

5:16a five towards the upside.

5:18That's probabilities as long as uh 69.6k

5:22is not touched. That's the uh 618 or at

5:24least you don't really want price to

5:26move too far below this low here, 75.5.

5:29You don't want to go way too low,

5:31arguably.

5:33But, if you also consider bearish

5:35options, you at least know where the

5:37invalidations are of those bearish

5:38options, which also means you put the

5:40probabilities in your favor. Um if you

5:43would, for example, long after the multi

5:461 2 is invalidated because you're like,

5:47"Well, probabilities are very high.

5:49We're looking for 81.5k at some point."

5:52So, uh yeah. Now, let's have a look at

5:54my levels while I remove the scenario.

5:56So, these are the levels that I have on

5:59the chart, local resistance here.

6:02Local support.

6:04Then we get to the uh conclusion of this

6:06video, which uh basically on the on the

6:09weekly I just wanted to explain that a

6:11five-wave move to the upside even on the

6:12daily timeframe I call a five-wave move

6:14to the upside a bullish case.

6:17Right? It does not guarantee your low is

6:19in. The bulls need five up, and they

6:21need three down.

6:23It's super important.

6:25Uh while the bears can look for ABCs,

6:27WXYs, and and whatever, right? You just

6:29want price to basically V-shape down to

6:31the 618. That's what the bears like to

6:33see.

6:34On the 15-minute uh timeframe, which is

6:37uh

6:38very interesting, arguably is if price

6:40here takes out this low, 76.7k,

6:43the probabilities are high you're

6:44basically going to take out the low at

6:4676.4k.

6:48Okay?

6:50And on the 1-hour/4-hour timeframe, we

6:53just keep an eye on on this whole

6:55structure.

6:56Uh the multi-12 to the downside, of

6:58course, is uh at least important to be

7:00aware of.

7:02And the reason why is because it tells

7:04you where the probability significantly

7:05changes in favor of the bulls, which is

7:0779.4k. So,

7:09uh we have multiple scenarios here, WXY

7:11down, diagonals, uh the larger triangle

7:14uh is is of course still uh an option as

7:17well. It's just that there's numerous

7:19scenarios, and arguably the

7:201-hour/4-hour timeframe is not very

7:22interesting to analyze at the moment.

7:24Arguably, I find the higher timeframes

7:26more interesting or the 15-minute at

7:28this stage.

7:29Um and then um

7:31just keep an eye every every move

7:32towards the upside, keep an eye on what

7:34the structure is. Is it corrective? Is

7:35it motive? Um and then um yeah, we'll

7:38we'll wait and see. Ideally, the bulls,

7:40what they see is they see a low, then a

7:43five-wave move towards the upside. Of

7:45course, perfect case, you take out the

7:46double top here at 79.4k, but you would

7:49get a five-wave move to the upside,

7:51followed then by a corrective structure.

7:53That's a great opportunity and very safe

7:55as well. Instead of trying to snipe the

7:57low, you wait for a bit of proof, and

8:00then the retracement is where the

8:02opportunities sit. So, yeah, let's see

8:04what the chart is going to give. Thanks

8:05for watching. I hope that this video was

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8:18Thanks for watching and subscribing, and

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8:21Bye-bye.