Bitcoin: Why the Latest High May Be Exhaustion

0:00So, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week

0:03simple moving average. It currently

0:04looks unlikely that it's going to be

0:06broken before the weekly candle close.

0:09And as we said before, the 50-week SMA

0:12is relevant. Um I would like to see at

0:14least two weekly closes above before we

0:17can really confirm a more substantial

0:20breakout that's also, yeah, sustainable.

0:23Um because in the past, you know, in

0:25previous bear markets, um

0:27yeah, just whenever the price really was

0:29below the 50-week SMA before larger

0:32rally started, we had several attempts

0:35of breaking above it, above the 50-week

0:37SMA, but they often failed. So, I want

0:39to talk about that. I'll talk about the

0:41Elliott wave structure and the

0:43short-term chart as well. And what it

0:44might mean here for the weekly close,

0:47which is coming up tomorrow.

0:49But yeah, if we zoom out, I mean, you

0:50you see it in in previous um

0:54in previous recovery rallies, yeah? I

0:56mean, just want to take here this

0:58example from 2022. Uh and we have to go

1:02to the weekly chart, actually. And then

1:05we take a look at 2022.

1:07And you can see that historically

1:11we have had, after breaking below that

1:1350-week SMA and the price tried to

1:16recover, we had a weekly candle close.

1:19Okay, another one, and then it failed.

1:21So, I mean, we need at least two, better

1:23of course three, but it depends on how

1:25the market moves. But uh sometimes

1:29it, you know, we have a breakout and

1:31then it just moves just slightly above

1:33it, another weekly candle close, but we

1:35can't get away from it. So, always pay

1:38attention to the Elliott wave structure

1:40as well, which tells us a lot about the

1:41risk. But here, for example, in 2023

1:45then, we had a full breakout. You know

1:47that you do you see the difference

1:48between the breakout attempt early 2022

1:52and then early 2023? I mean, this was a

1:54breakout with volume. Does it currently

1:57look like a breakout with volume to you?

2:01Not [snorts] really. I mean, I'm talking

2:02about in relation to the 50-week SMA,

2:05right? Of course, we had a break out,

2:07you could say, on a very local level

2:09with volume. That was our third wave

2:11that we talked about throughout July and

2:13in the August. It was the preferred

2:15interpretation to get that rally. It was

2:18very fast, but it stopped at just below

2:21the 50-week SMA. So, in in again in in

2:25previous bear markets then, look, we had

2:28a test in July 2018, and it failed, got

2:31rejected, and then it took a breakout

2:35with volume here and a few weekly candle

2:37closes to get a better uptrend

2:40confirmation.

2:41And then you had that as well in 2020

2:46No, sorry, 2015 that was breakout, but

2:49we always moved away from it. Yeah. So,

2:52whenever the market just hovered above

2:54it after trying to break out,

2:56yeah, it it was not successful. I mean,

2:58just want to show you how important it

3:00is to not only attempt a breakout, but

3:02actually move away from it from this

3:05technical level. And currently, and I'll

3:07go back to the daily time frame, you see

3:10that price is still below it. There was

3:13no meaningful breakout yet. A daily

3:16candle closed, yeah, and then next day

3:18we were below. So, the overall idea is

3:21still that in relation to the 50-week

3:23SMA, well, likelihood that we'll get a

3:26break above it, and that we actually

3:28move away with the from it with volume

3:31tomorrow.

3:32I mean, at the moment, the bulls

3:33couldn't hold it, right? The bulls

3:35couldn't hold it. What comes on top is,

3:37of course, that important resistance,

3:39the green line, which is the April high,

3:41sorry, the May high of this year at 83k.

3:44So, there is a lot going on with regards

3:47to resistance levels, and um

3:49this is a strong resistance area. The

3:51easy money of that setup is is made,

3:55okay? So, remember down there we had the

3:57one-two setup to the upside. The third

3:59wave is typically the

4:01it's it's the it's it's you know, it's

4:02the it's the main it's the main element

4:04of the trend. You want to trade that

4:06one. You don't want to trade the

4:07messiness of a wave four four five

4:10pattern because from an Elliott wave

4:11point of view, this now looks like a

4:13pretty complete five-wave move up in a C

4:16wave. So, it's an ABC move to the

4:18upside. Nothing good invalidated. I know

4:21there's a lot of emotion associated with

4:23that move at the moment, but guys, none

4:25of the wave counts we talked about in

4:27recent months is even invalidated. So,

4:29even in the bearish scenario,

4:31the price could move into this region

4:34because 83K is the key level here above

4:38which it gets invalidated. But, we

4:40talked in previous updates already

4:41about, you know, from an Elliott wave

4:43point of view, what would likely happen

4:44if price breaks above the 50-week SMA

4:47with volume? It'll likely be the orange

4:50count. So, we're going to watch for a

4:52five-wave sequence to form as shown on

4:54the chart in orange. If price breaks

4:57above that 50-week SMA with volume, and

4:59then we can add support for a B wave

5:02pullback, and that might actually be an

5:03interesting setup then for higher

5:05prices. But, for now, the main decision

5:07point is here. It's the battleground of

5:09the bulls and the bears, and I'll show

5:12you on the smaller timeframe which

5:13support levels need to break to even

5:14signal that a top is in.

5:16That would be a break on the, you know,

5:18here on the higher timeframe this see

5:20it. The first signal would be a break

5:21below 76,220

5:24dollars.

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6:01description and comment section.

6:05Okay, and here on the you know, on the

6:07smaller timeframe you can see that

6:08Bitcoin is still only moving sideways.

6:10There was a lot of FOMO in in the last

6:13couple of days because of this move to

6:15the upside even though and I have to say

6:18it very clearly we expected another

6:19high. Okay, and that one more high

6:21happened.

6:23I'm increasingly thinking you know, we

6:25might form a top in this region

6:27because pullbacks are getting stronger

6:29but the bottom line is we haven't broken

6:30below any of the previous swing low. So

6:33even though this pullback from the

6:35Thursday high is quite deep for an

6:38internal fourth wave and you see in the

6:39white count, I'm tracking that as an

6:42internal fourth wave pullback.

6:45There's no sign, you know, that the

6:47large top is in and we are still in the

6:50range and I mentioned in the last in the

6:52last update that it would take a break

6:54yeah, below [clears throat] 76,230

6:58dollars for a first real signal that a

7:00more meaningful top is in but then we

7:02would still watch this main support zone

7:05that I've been tracking for the last

7:07couple of weeks. It has not moved. It's

7:10between 70,500

7:12to 75,140

7:14and that area is important because the

7:17the wave four pullback that started on

7:20the 21st of August. I mean, it might be

7:22complete. It might have completed on

7:24Wednesday and we might have just had a

7:27fifth [snorts] wave up and that's it.

7:28But technically if we go lower from

7:31here, well, I would get really cautious

7:33with a break below the Wednesday low.

7:35Technically this could morph into a

7:37wider wave four especially if you look

7:39at the wave two in terms of its

7:42duration, you know, it lasted between

7:447th of August and the 14th of August. It

7:46was a week. We've now already been in

7:48this correction for two weeks. I mean,

7:50it could easily extend into three weeks

7:53because a wave four tends to be a little

7:55bit longer even than a wave two in

7:57crypto, especially if price is below

8:01important resistances. So, these remain

8:03the important levels to watch. I mean, I

8:05can't really say much more to the

8:07upside. It is the 83K level that really

8:10matters.

8:11But, you see that the bearish pressure

8:13increases or at least the bulls are

8:15starting to lose some steam.

8:17That one more high we expected happened.

8:20It was only

8:21uh you know, short-lived, but we haven't

8:23broken any support. So, the short-term

8:25uptrend that we've been tracking from

8:27the July lows remains intact, but that

8:30doesn't mean that the risk is low. The

8:32risk is getting quite high below

8:34resistance, obviously, on the long side.

8:36So, it can make sense at this point to

8:38wait for a full breakout confirmation.

8:41Wait for all five waves to form as I

8:43showed you on the larger time frame in

8:45the orange A wave. And then, wait for

8:48the B wave pullback if you're a pullback

8:50trader. Or, you could try to add um you

8:52know, whenever the price comes back into

8:54the support area if you're trading. But,

8:57again, it's a range. And unfortunately,

8:59in the last couple of weeks, there was

9:00not really a lot to talk about because

9:03things are getting boring and sideways

9:05again in these ranges. So, I'll keep you

9:07updated about this. Hope it was helpful.

9:10Make sure to check out our membership if

9:13you want to dive deeper. The links are

9:15in the comments. Thanks so much.

9:17Bye-bye.