Bitcoin Price: Why 79K Is the Level to Watch Today

0:00The Bitcoin price reacted to the 200W

0:03week simple moving average in June, July

0:07and August, pumped and rallied directly

0:10to the 50week moving average. This is

0:12the line that you see here on the chart

0:15and the price broke above it yesterday,

0:17which is what we see on our Trading View

0:19chart quite well. This is the white line

0:22on the Trading View chart. Bitcoin

0:24pushed above it and is approaching now

0:26the important swing high that formed

0:29here at $83,000

0:32in May. We want to talk about what the

0:34meaning is of these levels and what

0:37would happen if the price can break

0:39above $83,000.

0:41So, let's get started with the video.

0:44So, as you know, we're tracking the

0:46Bitcoin chart here on this channel at

0:48least once a day. And currently, and

0:51we've been doing this since July, we are

0:54following a local uptrend. And you can

0:57see that also on our trend radar, I

0:59really try to make it as clear as

1:01possible. By the way, you also find now

1:04in the video description an additional

1:07well commentary or summary of the

1:09analysis plus all the relevant levels.

1:12If you ever need to, you know, check it

1:14again, double check it if you just want

1:16to reread it to understand which levels

1:18really matter. On X, I try to post here

1:21every day this trend radar. And you can

1:24see that intraday it's bullish. I will

1:27show you why. On the shorter time frame,

1:30short-term, which is the trend from the

1:32July low, remains bullish and that's

1:34been bullish throughout. The daily chart

1:37for now remains neutral and the main

1:41reason why it remains neutral is because

1:44Bitcoin remains in a broader sideways

1:47range. Sure, Bitcoin has been pumping

1:51from the June July lows into recent

1:53highs here. Yeah, yesterday we made a

1:55new local high at least. Yeah, but that

1:58still doesn't mean that we've left the

2:00overall range to the upside. That will

2:02become clearer with a break above 83K.

2:05Now, I said in previous videos and we

2:06looked at this chart and we looked at

2:08the weekly chart that it can make sense

2:11to not be too optimistic that the 50we

2:15moving average is broken until we get

2:18I'd say at least a couple of closes

2:21above. And the main reason is I'm

2:24talking about weekly [clears throat]

2:25talking about weekly closes because here

2:28in February for example 2023 that 50week

2:33moving average got broken

2:35but then it couldn't even close the

2:37weekly candle above it. So the weekly

2:40candle close will be important. So I

2:43mean it's already Friday happy days but

2:45the weekly candle is not clo closed yet.

2:49So surely you know price can break above

2:51that 50WE SMA and then get rejected

2:54again over the weekend and if we can't

2:56close above it is not really a breakout.

2:58Okay it's not really a decisive

3:00breakout. In addition to that in

3:02previous bare markets like in 2022 that

3:0550WE SMA was broken as well we had one

3:09weekly close above it and then price

3:12broke down. So I want to see at least

3:15at least two better even three weekly

3:19closes above it for confirmation. Now

3:21confirmation always comes late. You guys

3:24know that confirmation is not really a

3:26trading signal. Normally confirmation is

3:28just from an analysis point of view

3:30important to confirm a structure. But of

3:33course the best time to buy is not after

3:36a breakout. Usually not unless you know

3:38what you're doing because breakouts can

3:40fail. It is often when we have the first

3:44signal of a trend shift for example to

3:46the upside even if it's just shortterm

3:49and then the pullback happens. What we

3:51had on this chart and this is also why

3:53I've implemented the trend radar so it

3:55becomes even clearer because I've

3:57realized that many people obviously

3:59don't you know are not so familiar with

4:02Elliot wave. Elliot wave is the model

4:03we're using and there are more than

4:0520,000 videos on this channel you can

4:07learn from. Okay. Yesterday someone

4:09asked me do you recommend the video to

4:10learn? I said like every video includes

4:12some information about Elliot wave. In

4:15the last couple of weeks, well actually

4:17since since mid mid July, we talked

4:21about the concept of a one two setup or

4:25the concept of five waves up, three

4:27waves down. five waves up, three waves

4:29down, and why it is so important and why

4:32it confirms a reversal in this case to

4:35the upside. Even though it could simply

4:38be a corrective bounce, but it was a

4:40setup for higher prices down there.

4:44There was no setup for lower prices,

4:46right? Of course, price could have gone

4:47lower, but there was no setup for it.

4:50Like, there was no short trade setup.

4:52There were two long trade setups from an

4:54Elliot wave point of view. They played

4:56out. We're now in resistance and this

4:59setup is still playing out. So, we have

5:01not seen a rejection. So, that's why I

5:04said over the last few weeks after the

5:06pump, yes, we've pushed higher. We've

5:09pushed into resistance, but without a

5:11break of support and without a fivewave

5:15decline, there is no bearish setup. Why

5:18do you be why would you become bearish

5:20up here? I've seen lots of like, I don't

5:23know, Bart Simpson patterns flying

5:24around. Yeah. Um, but again, have they

5:28played out? I I haven't seen any

5:30fivewave decline yet, and I haven't seen

5:33any break of support, which would

5:34confirm that this upside bounce is

5:37ending. like you know you have to

5:40understand what the pivots are the

5:42levels and we've seen a pump and a

5:46consolidation

5:49which allows for higher prices as long

5:52as Fibonacci support is holding which is

5:54by the way between 70,500

5:57and 75,180.

5:59I would call that our main support area.

6:01You will see that on the smaller time

6:03frame. What is important in the very

6:05short term is the micro support. And

6:08this is where these different time

6:10frames from the radar come into focus

6:12again because short-term relates to the

6:15rally from the July low. Long-term is

6:17anyway the multi-year perspective that

6:20it takes a lot to change that to

6:21bearish. Even in a normal bare market,

6:23it probably won't change bearish. The

6:25daily chart is neutral because we're in

6:27a range. And intraday flipped bullish

6:30yesterday when the price broke above a

6:32certain level that I mentioned in

6:33yesterday's radar and we're still

6:36bullish now. And that can change though.

6:38Intraday can change like you know within

6:41a minute cuz that really just hinges on

6:45a level on a 15-minut chart or 30inut

6:48chart. Okay. So that is absolutely not a

6:50forecast. It is giving you the current

6:52state of the trend and necessarily the

6:56intraday changes more frequently than

6:57the shortterm. But short term has been

6:59bullish for quite a long time now

7:01because there were five wave movements

7:03to the upside from the July and August

7:05lows. And I still get the feeling and it

7:09might sound repetitive to you, but I

7:10still get the feeling many people

7:12haven't understood the importance of

7:14understanding what a fivewave move

7:16actually means. Like people get

7:19frustrated when like what is he even

7:20talking about? like five waves. Is he

7:22mad? But exactly this concept of five

7:26waves and you see it here labeled from

7:28the July low to the 15th of July high.

7:31This is a fivewave move. It has helped

7:33us understand that the market wants to

7:34go higher. There was another fivewave

7:38move up here and a three-wave decline.

7:41We talked about that and I labeled the

7:43micro. So I don't I'm not going to do

7:44that now. But it helped us understand

7:46there was a bullish setup and this is

7:48important and I understand the

7:50frustration that people missed the setup

7:53and I myself highlighted it as not you

7:56know high quality because the high

7:59quality setup will come later. It will

8:02come then with the next larger degree.

8:04So if this turns into five waves, I

8:07mean, you know, this would be bullish

8:12because it's basically what you saw in

8:14small just in large, the larger orange

8:17awave, which could also be a wave 1. I

8:20don't want to make it too complicated.

8:21If we see five waves on that scale,

8:25like it would be what we saw in small

8:30in large, like five waves up. What comes

8:33afterwards? a three-wave decline. And

8:35what happens then? Well, the pump

8:37ideally, right? Of course, nothing is

8:39guaranteed, but it's a setup. So, that's

8:41why we're doing the work every day to be

8:44able to spot those setups when many

8:46people don't. What what add, you know,

8:48what obviously needs to be noted is down

8:51here people didn't pay attention. And

8:53this is unfortunately the case when the

8:55market is ranging and boring. Look what

8:58happened here. We moved sideways now for

9:00a couple of weeks. Our trend radar

9:03stayed bullish throughout. That's the

9:05main purpose of it. People get bored

9:07again and then the pump comes. So that's

9:10the purpose of the trend radar. It keeps

9:13you grounded. It helps you understand

9:15like there's no discussion like it's all

9:17here. There's a color there because then

9:20people say, "Oh, but you were bearish

9:21shortterm." It's here. Like bullish is

9:24still pointing towards higher prices. It

9:27tells you also exactly when it's going

9:28to change. So you can take a look at it.

9:30It's all on X. I put the links into the

9:32comment section for you. Um, let us take

9:35a look now at the shorter time frame

9:37which also gives you an idea of the

9:39intraday perspective.

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10:23Okay. And this is now the shorter time

10:25frame. You could say the intraday

10:26perspective. But you see also here that

10:28Bitcoin moved sideways for the last

10:31couple of months. And I have three key

10:34levels here that matter to me. The very

10:37first one is at 79,199.

10:40Price is currently still holding above

10:42it. As long as that level is holding,

10:45the intraday perspective and this is

10:46where the trend radar comes in stay

10:49stays bullish. Um it even says that

10:52below 79,199

10:55this will flip to neutral or bearish

10:57even depending on how it breaks. But

10:59that is the key level that needs to hold

11:01to keep this very shortterm intraday

11:04perspective uptrend alive which started

11:08actually on Wednesday already. Okay. So

11:11that's really the the the shortest time

11:13frame. That's the first level that

11:14matters to keep the very direct trend

11:16up. Look what happens if the price

11:18breaks below it. Well, again, intraday

11:21will then probably flip neutral because

11:23we're falling back into the previous

11:26range that we've been moving in in the

11:28last couple of weeks. What matters then

11:30next is the swing low that formed on

11:32Wednesday, which is the swing low that

11:35started this move up from an Elliot wave

11:37point of view. In the white scenario,

11:39that's a low on a wave four, but that

11:41wave four might extend. The blue

11:43scenario shows you that. And the blue

11:45count reminds us that B waves can always

11:49overshoot and that we might extend the

11:51wave four, which will become clearer

11:53should price break below 79,199.

11:56And then the Wednesday low will come

11:58into focus. And again, that is the low

12:00that um is the very first key swing low.

12:03um another key level 76,236.

12:08If that level and that's the second main

12:10level if that level breaks as well I

12:12mean at the latest then the intraday

12:14perspective will turn bearish and then

12:17shortterm however will remain bullish as

12:19long as this main support area is

12:21holding and the main reason is and again

12:25the key level here is 70,500

12:27that's the third main level so you have

12:29three levels first warning is 79,199

12:34that something is changing second one is

12:3676,2 236. And then you've got 70,500,

12:41which is the level that keeps the

12:43short-term perspective bullish. Even

12:46though you could have a dip all the way

12:48down here into this larger support box,

12:51and it might seem bearish, but actually

12:53we're just holding support levels for

12:55the larger move up that been ongoing

12:58since July. Okay? So, it's just a matter

13:01of perspective which trend you're

13:03currently focused on, which degree of

13:05trend. Um, from an Elliot wave point of

13:08view, that's important because yes, we

13:10could be in a direct breakout higher and

13:12the white scenario shows you that

13:15another high is possible and we could

13:17approach 83K next, which is the next

13:19decision level. Okay, so that's the next

13:21level to break from a bullish point of

13:23view. But you need to know which levels

13:26become more important when we break the

13:28upper support. And if we break below

13:3079,199,

13:33it seems like well, we are at least

13:35falling back into the range. Okay, so

13:38these are the key levels to watch for

13:40today. 83K remains key resistance.

13:43People got very euphoric about this move

13:45to the upside. I try to remind people

13:47we're still actually caught in the

13:48broader range. Um because we we yes

13:52price broke above the previous swing

13:53highs from the 28th of August and 25th

13:56of August, but actually we've just

13:58fallen back below them. So you could

13:59argue that we're still in the range, but

14:01still this upper micro support keeps the

14:04intraday breakout attempt to the upside

14:07alive. And um well 83k could be could be

14:11tested next. Okay. Now please keep in

14:13mind that above 83K

14:16um this will morph into at least the

14:20orange Awave that you see on the larger

14:22time frame. Okay, please don't treat the

14:24wave counts as predictive. They are

14:26really not until we get a fivewave move.

14:29That's also something I want to give you

14:31guys because I try to keep these videos

14:33educational as well. What really matters

14:35is stay in the present. Ask yourselves

14:38what's the current trend doing and am I

14:41above support? Am I below support? Am I

14:44below resistance? Above resistance.

14:46We're currently above support. Yeah, the

14:49short-term trend points to the upside.

14:52Intraday points to the upside. When does

14:54that change? And then look for setups.

14:57The one two setup is the most, you know,

14:59the the one usually that gives you a

15:03really good reward to risk ratio. There

15:05is currently no one two setup. The large

15:07they don't come often because they are,

15:09you know, they are the best ones you can

15:10normally get. And the last one happened

15:13uh in August. Okay, in August. And of

15:16course, we're going to watch for the

15:17next one. You can trade any movement on

15:19the chart, but if you do that, it really

15:20depends on your trading plan, but the

15:22one two setup is what many people are

15:24watching for. And there are quite a few

15:26altcoins that are showing these at the

15:27moment, right? And if you want to get

15:29more information on them, feel free to

15:31follow on X or join as a member. As a

15:33gold member, you also get access to

15:35these. Uh I shared quite a few over the

15:37last few days. And Bitcoin's behavior in

15:40this current price region will probably

15:42determine whether this uh turns into

15:45something more if they break. Uh because

15:47altcoins they are correlated. They also

15:49follow Bitcoin to a degree. So it's

15:52always worth to understand what Bitcoin

15:54is doing, what the levels are. We talked

15:55about them and then understand that if

15:58those break well the altcoins are at

16:01risk of breaking their setups, right?

16:02But again, you have setups, you have

16:04clear levels to watch, good reward to

16:05risk ratios where you see those setups,

16:08and that's the whole point of the

16:09videos. Okay, guys, and keep in mind

16:12that the key levels and the summary of

16:14the video are also in the comment

16:15section. The daily chart is currently

16:18still pushing higher here. We're coming

16:20to the top of the 83K range. Um, the

16:23shorter time frame just told you which

16:25levels need to hold to keep a breakout

16:27attempt alive, but also when the

16:30warnings will come, right? What are the

16:31levels that indicate that this upside

16:34reversal attempt on the Bitcoin chart is

16:36failing? And the fact that the daily

16:38chart is neutral tells you a lot about

16:40the uncertainty on this time frame. So,

16:43I think the question that most people

16:44are interested in, are we already in the

16:46bull market? Well, long-term, yeah, but

16:48that's the multi-year perspective. Many

16:50people know that anyway. Short-term

16:52trend is up. Keep focused on that.

16:54Intraday changes often be aware of that.

16:56The daily chart unfortunately is the one

16:58that many people are interested in

17:00because they want to know well are we in

17:01a bull market are are we getting a year

17:03end rally and that's the question

17:05unfortunately that can't be answered so

17:07don't focus so much on that one focus on

17:09the ones that are clearer right now

17:11there's no need to focus on the time

17:13frame that creates most uncertainty and

17:16that's also why on X I see many

17:17influencers like hating on each other

17:19about something that can't be answered

17:21yet right so you got the the people who

17:24are focused on the four-year cycle Then

17:26you've got the other ones who say the

17:274year cycle is dead. Then you've got

17:29people who just have an opinion but no

17:31data. But they all fighting each other,

17:34which is ridiculous that the daily chart

17:36is neutral because we might just be

17:38shifting into a larger uptrend. But

17:40whether that happens really hinges on

17:42these levels. So these levels really

17:43decide everything here. And the

17:45structure that happens after the

17:47breakouts. If we get five waves up,

17:49three waves down, that's exactly what we

17:51what we're going to watch for. I'll keep

17:52you updated. For those of you who are

17:54interested in more updates, as I said,

17:56feel free to follow us on X. Maybe

17:58consider to join MCO as a member. And I

18:00wish you a great day. Bye-bye.