Маргулан Сейсембаев: потерять созданное за 20 лет, не сдаться и возродиться победителем | Основатели

0:00I have earned about 6 billion dollars . They took everything from me : the bank , the oil fields , the development companies . When life hits you really hard in the face , a person can start to change . 95 % of the businesses I initiated myself ended in bankruptcy . That's insane . To achieve success , create a demand for

0:21yourself . Opportunities and resources come through people . Artificial intelligence should remove all routine operations that make no sense from a human perspective . What advice would you give yourself ? Don't become a graveyard of useless knowledge . Many entrepreneurs have already received money from the small business fund .

0:42Now it's your turn . Alfa-Bank will distribute 100 million rubles . to entrepreneurs all over the country . The best stories will receive the money . Tell us about your business at alfabank.ru . We are in Kazakhstan , and today we are talking with Margulan

1:03Seissembayev about the future , strategy , and the principles of an entrepreneur who always stays on top . I wanted to share how I first learned

1:12about you . I think I stumbled upon a video on YouTube a long time ago where some guy , looking Asian , very simple-looking , was telling stories about how he sold a company to the largest telecom operators , saying , " Well , I offered 200 million to one group , and then others came along — 300

1:30million . " I thought , " Who even is this ? " I subscribed , started watching , started reading , and a huge world of your philosophy opened up to me — your experience , such a harsh experience built in harsh years . You were a shepherd in the rural hinterlands , weren't you ? You didn't

1:49really speak Russian well . I grew up in an aul , finished a Kazakh school , then went into the army , served , and then to university . I finished university and immediately started doing business . So , a person with absolutely no resources and no connections . Uh , well , there was no inheritance there from

2:04your parents no . My father was an agronomist , my mother was a head of the dining hall ; it was rural intelligentsia . Look , those were your starting conditions , right ? Then the collapse of the Soviet Union happens . Of all the books on development at that time , I had read Theodore Dreiser , the Trilogy of Desire

2:19— The Financier , The Stoic , and The Titan , I believe it's called . I read that and had no other concept of business . Well , later , when I was finishing university , I read Dale Carnegie's book . That was the entire foundation . But since I initially

2:33treated business more like a researcher , I was constantly observing , observing what tools worked and what didn't , what works and what doesn't , how one should act in certain situations . I started to succeed quickly . Banking business , telecom business , er , then I bought deposits , coal and oil fields , construction , development . That was in

2:522007 , it was the peak . I earned about 6 billion dollars . Well , the total capital was around 5.8 , to be precise . Every time , I caught the trends . My friends even call me a trend catcher . And why a trend catcher ? Because I noticed a long time ago that money is

3:09where the attention is . I started keeping track of what was in fashion . And my friends laugh and say , even when banks were hyped , you were there , you were a banker ; when deposits were hyped , you were there ; when it was development , you were there . Then , when criminal cases and persecution started

3:31after the crisis , you were there again . Moreover , as I recall , internationally , yes , you were even accused of creating an international criminal community . It was a holding , a criminal holding uniting many organized crime groups . Yes , were you the leader of it ? Yes , I was the leader there . So , I succeeded

3:49even there . Then we had a conflict with Nazarbayev . The thing is , the four leading banks of the country at that time controlled 82 % of the market . So , the fourth bank belonged to his son-in-law , and three banks were independent . Well , he decided to take them . Was one of them yours ?

4:04Yes . I had the third largest bank in the country . Political persecution began . In total , I was facing over 20 years in prison . Interpol , being wanted in all countries of the world , and so on . And then , when I overcame everything , won , and so on , social media , and I'm there again , and now

4:21artificial intelligence , I'm there again . So , my friends keep asking me : " Why are you in every trend ? You are present in every trend . " To summarize , Point A. You are in an aul , a shepherd , zero starting capital . Point B , your peak in the business game . Almost 6 billion is the

4:40capitalization of all your assets . And after that , a conflict , meaning a series of political ones , yes , 7 years of courts ,

4:507 years of courts until 2016 , as I recall , well , from public assessments , your capital was later estimated to be around 200 million dollars . That was after I started over . That is when you ... I mean , were you completely wiped out ? No , they took everything from me . Absolutely everything .

5:04They took everything from me : the bank , the deposits , the development companies . I had over 200 companies . They took everything . Everything down to the last bit . I spent 7 years in courts . After I won the court cases in Dubai , London , Luxembourg , Liechtenstein , Zurich , and Kazakhstan . After that , I was cleared .

5:26That was in 2016 . Uh-huh . And in 2016 , I started my business anew . And these 200 million , is that what you ... Yes , actually it's not 200 , it's less . If you look at it objectively , it's around 150-170 million . But ... As I said in one of my interviews

5:50, I didn't actually aim to earn money , because I believe that to live a billionaire's life , 100 million is enough . 100 million ? Dollars , Yes . In assets or in cash flow ? Ah , in the form of working assets . Businesses . Well , so these 100 million could generate , say , 12 % per annum .

6:11After the Nazarbayev clan left , could you not have rolled things back or had them reviewed , if you won in court , to get your assets back ? I submitted applications to all instances after Nazarbayev left . Well , because a " Fair Kazakhstan " policy was announced and so on . Everywhere , I just

6:32got formal replies . Moreover , when I started collecting documents myself , many documents based on which my assets were seized had been destroyed even in state archives . This indicates that a criminal group was at work , covering their tracks . I have all the proof . You know , I don't really pursue it much , because I

6:53believe it's much easier to earn from the future than from the past . Margulan , tell me , in what percentage of cases when launching your businesses did you

7:03make mistakes and fail to achieve success ? Probably 95 % of the businesses I initiated myself , Uh-huh . ended in bankruptcy . That's crazy . Wow . I'm now ... I'm being optimistic here . 95 % . And at the same time , 90 ... more than 90 % of the money I earned came from deals

7:24that were simply brought to me and imposed on me . I didn't seek to participate in them . Following this formula , it's better to exclude you from the decision-making stage as early as possible . Absolutely . Absolutely correct . I generally believe that the decision should be made not by me , but by the context of the external situation . That

7:45is , the deals . Look , let me explain . My entire task should not be in making decisions . I must build a hive where bees will fly in with honey . What kind of environment . I only build the hive . This is a guaranteed thing . I don't look for honey , I don't look for flowers , I

8:03don't work like a bee . Searching for honey and searching for flowers is done by people who are better at it . It’s a question where , if you take every person as a hypothesis , 10,000 people go into business , one hits it big , and nobody knows the fate of the

8:239,999 others . Therefore , the chances there are minimal . I don’t want to get involved in that . Can a person who has always seen the causes in external circumstances because of how their environment raised them ( you know , their surroundings — I

8:40don't know : parents , classmates , colleagues ) — is it always convenient to say the state is to blame : " Oh , you got lucky , or they had the right parents , but I didn't get the same education as them , of course they made it . " So , you can always find excuses .

8:57So , can a person with such a mindset , with such fixed views formed over 20 – 30 years , can they later change this approach , transform something within themselves , and try doing things differently ? After watching , for example , our podcast , or is a person already fully formed , making it very

9:18difficult for them to rethink their view of the world just like that ? Well , my approach is that I believe that , well , firstly , I believe and see that the world is dynamic , nothing is static , everything is moving . Accordingly , why shouldn’t a person be dynamic ? Accordingly , if we replace

9:38all our cells in a year , in essence , a year later nothing remains of last year's Denis , right , it’s a new Denis . Then why shouldn’t our mentality and character change ? They can change to a certain extent , but they can change . The question is , what will be the trigger ? Various circumstances can

9:57be a trigger . It happens that a person has hit rock bottom and realizes that that’s it , they can't go on living like this . And then , in those situations , only when life really hits them hard in the face , only at that moment can a person start to change . It’s not like , I was sitting on the

10:12couch and suddenly thought : " Hey , let me change . " No , that never happens . Only through pain . Only through pain . Only through pain . Well , it's a law of life , because a person is used to their habits , they live in their usual environment , it's comfortable for them , they are in a

10:28comfort zone , and someone has to kick them out of that comfort zone . and then they will understand that they need to do something about it . And this short pause is so you have time to subscribe to my Telegram channel . No matter how much we boost our soft skills , we can't get anywhere without hard skills . In my channel , I

10:47write exactly about this : how I build my business in practice every day , and what helps me stay afloat and grow even during these difficult , turbulent times . How do you stay relevant , achieve results , and ensure that your life and the lives of your loved ones are in order ? Follow the link in the

11:04description ; I look forward to seeing you there . And we continue . What question did you ask yourself most often this year ? Am I looking far enough ahead ? Am I

11:16taking all the factors into account ? But overall , if you look at it , it’s more about calibrating your own adequacy . Could you explain ? Well , the thing is , when the world accelerates and becomes more complex , the main problem is , look : there is reality , and then there is your perception of this

11:36reality . When they don't align , you fall into a crisis , right ? Into unmet expectations . Yes , it's not just unmet expectations , it's also dashed hopes , and so on . Therefore , most importantly , if you form an adequate opinion about yourself — and that is what the ego is , the ego is a

11:54person's representation of themselves — Uh-huh . then you will understand this world more accurately , and you will be effective . Therefore , in times of rapid change , think more often about your adequacy . And what do you think are the personal qualities of an entrepreneur that help them not to get lost ? The first is the ability to manage your

12:15ego . All successful people , if you look , are very humble in terms of their ego . All truly smart people are always doubting . Only fools do not doubt . They are iron-clad certain about what they say . Well , here's a simple example of how the ego works against us . For instance , the ego is an inflated

12:35self-opinion , our representation of ourselves . Accordingly , when we have an inflated view of ourselves , we build incorrect expectations regarding this world . We make claims against everyone . And when this world doesn't meet our expectations , we either get offended or disappointed . So , what do disappointment and resentment lead to ? They lead to aggression . You start

12:58taking revenge , you start breaking things , you start pressuring , you start begging , you start demanding . And these are all signs of weakness . It shows that you are in need . This world is ruled by strength . People run away from everything that is weak and run toward everything that is strong . And strength

13:15is when you don't need anything , when you don't make demands , when you live your own life , when you are content with little , content with what you have . And so , accordingly , when you start making these demands , people shy away from you ; you scare everyone off . And people are sources of opportunities .

13:32All opportunities come only through people . You scare away opportunities yourself , and consequently , you become a loser . That is how the ego works against you . What decision do you consider the most important , correct , or maximally effective that you have

13:48made in recent years ? Over the last year , I made one important decision , as I turned 59 this year , to change my style , so to speak , or to bring my investment policy and behavior back into alignment . I said that I no longer

14:10invest in hopes , wishes , opinions , trends , and so on . So , what does that mean ? I stopped investing in hopes and wishes , or , one might say , I stopped relying on them , because any startup , any startup in any field , any endeavor , is all about hopes and wishes . Now I

14:31have switched to , uh , first of all , two things . First , I have completely switched to , uh , deals , which is what I earned probably over 90 % of my capital from . Deals . A deal , as a rule , is investing in special situations , when there are shareholder conflicts , cash

14:52flow gaps , or , well , always some kind of crisis situation . Mm . That is the first point . And the second point , uh , I have moved away from the ... " invest and pray " concept . Well , in my world now , everything is built so

15:12that a company must earn the right to my money . Uh-huh . And to do this , I formulate everything : whatever I say , whatever I do , whatever I claim , whatever I decide , and wherever I invest , I first frame it as a hypothesis , then test it against data . And if this company or my

15:34decision proves it has a right to exist , only then do I scale it . Uh-huh . Do I understand correctly that you have stopped putting money and investing in early-stage projects , where the venture component is very high ? Stages , not just early stages , but any company in general ; you know how it usually is , when all companies

15:54give presentations , they come and draw these kinds of charts . Right here , here is the point where you invested , and then it happens after you . I always told them and laughed , saying , " Why does the hockey stick start after me , and not before me ? Let’s make the hockey stick happen a little bit first ,

16:09and then I’ll come in . " But why would they need you then , if the hockey stick is already there ? What would they need investors for then ? Yes . And so , what is the question ? What am I saying ? All those hockey sticks , and then those divisions of Total Accessible Market , TAM , SAM , SOM , and

16:26so on . You say that everything , in reality , is just hope , it’s all desire , it’s an attempt to pass off wishful thinking as reality . When they say , " We'll take money , pour it into marketing , and we'll take off like this , " that forecast , yes , I cut all that off up to the current

16:41moment . Show me the data up to the current moment . I only invest a small amount to get the opportunity to participate in the board and receive reports . Uh-huh . And I test the hypothesis that the company is indeed capable of maintaining such growth rates and so on , that its reporting is normal , that

16:57the founder is good , and so on . After I collect all the data and make sure that everything truly corresponds to reality , only then do I make the decision to scale , or to exit . Well , to scale , that is , to buy more . Uh-huh . So , conditionally , you buy a kind of entry ticket into the

17:18company , you evaluate it regardless of the founders ' growth , or that founder who doesn't set ambitious goals . And moreover , most people sincerely believe in it . And even if something doesn't work out , it's not fraud , it's just certain delusions that charm entrepreneurs and are not driven by age . I’m not saying that it’s a bad

17:38method to invest in the hopes of young people . No , it’s just that I’ve reached an age where , as people say , " hopes nourish the youth . " But I realized that I am no longer a youth , so , for myself , I decided that I no longer feed on hopes and desires .

17:58Yes . You spend a lot of time with entrepreneurs , including those who have the means to pay large sums of money to

18:06move through life together with you . How would you formulate the main mistakes or blind spots of the people who come to you , and with whom working gives the fastest or most effective results ? What is common ? Is there

18:26anything common at all , a foundation ? Look , the foundation is this . I generally try to optimize all processes or increase the efficiency of any person . To work through bottlenecks . This is one of my methods . And the first bottleneck of a person , of any person , is energy and how they manage

18:48it . The thing is , I have seen many successful people . Not all of them were smart , but all of them were energetic . That is , energy is the most important resource that makes a person successful , because an energetic person simply tries more , communicates more , meets with more people , and their area of

19:06contact with reality is larger . Accordingly , they have more chances . And accordingly , since they have a lot of energy , they are positive . The first bottleneck is energetic people . I just know that if a person cannot manage their energy , if it's not given to them by nature , right , then that is a

19:21bottleneck . But there is another situation . A person is very energetic , but cannot manage that energy , doesn't direct it where it's needed . So , the problem for low-energy people is managing energy , and for energetic people , it's managing focus . Uh-huh . These are the two problems . The next bottleneck is the efficiency of

19:39thinking . These are the four main questions that all the world's philosophers , sages , and religions have wrestled with . I identified them myself . The first question is : what is this world like ? The second question : who am I ? The third question : what is my place in this world ? And the fourth question :

19:53what do I really want ? Until a person answers these four global questions , everything they do will be chaos in their life , chaotic movements . How does an entrepreneur build a strategy when the planning horizon seems to be not even years or months , often ?

20:10Well , first you need to clearly understand what a strategy is . Most people think that a strategy is a plan . It is not about a plan or results . It is a line of most effective behavior . So , what is the most correct , effective line of behavior in current conditions ? Imagine you are driving and suddenly

20:29hit fog . You're in a car , in the fog , at night . Maximum poor visibility , right ? What do you do at that time ? You slow down . Second , you switch to low beams . And third , you drive by feel . Or like when you're walking through a swamp , you first feel with your foot ,

20:44as soon as you find solid ground , you shift your weight , then you feel with your foot again . Or when you walk in the dark , you put your hand out in front to feel your way . So , in the current conditions , what should you do ? Firstly , it is a wrong approach to

20:56think that you need to make as many mistakes as possible . And most importantly , learn lessons from them . That is a wrong approach , because , well , the right approach is to make as many small mistakes as possible . Because if you make as many mistakes as possible and among them there happens to be one

21:12or two big ones , then you're finished . Therefore , you need to make as many small mistakes as possible , learn lessons from all of them , and then , where it is not a mistake , strengthen what is strong . Thus , you need to test as many hypotheses as possible . You must stop claiming , deciding , or doing

21:33anything until you have verified that it is solid ground . Therefore , everything you want to decide , claim , or do , call it a hypothesis . And when you call it a hypothesis , it means you need to define metrics by which you measure the success or failure of that hypothesis . You define the timeline ,

21:53you define the budget , and then you define the reaction . That's it . So don't try to be too smart ; in the modern world , you don't need to try to be too smart . You don't need to rely on your experience , knowledge , education , your degree , and so on . You need to

22:10test hypotheses , identify what works , and then only scale what is strong . Direct all resources and attention to what works . We have already touched a little on the topic of ups and downs today , and we will talk more about it . It seems to me that it's one of the brightest examples of riding a rollercoaster , being at the

22:31bottom a few times , and then coming back up — it's crazy . Yes . Yes . And I wanted to give you a gift . We don't just have a YouTube podcast ; more precisely , we have several YouTube channels , we have our own business community , and we host large conferences . And starting this year , we

22:48began publishing a print magazine ; it’s also called " Founders . " And the theme of the second issue is called " Ups and Downs , " where we explore , through the example of real business founders — not only from Russia , but from global examples and historical retrospectives — that there are no ups without downs , and mistakes are ,

23:08unfortunately , an integral part of any journey , of any successful person . The only question is whether you learn from these mistakes or just keep stumbling . So , I wanted to give you this magazine . Magically , the magazine appears in my hands . I wanted to give you this magazine . Uh-huh . Thank you .

23:27And to invite you to be in one of the upcoming issues . We publish three times a year . Uh-huh . And next year , to invite you as one of the subjects , or we will make a special feature from this material , because unfortunately , not everything will make the cut . We are also limited by format

23:45in this part . Uh-huh . Friends , we are filming for several hours . Unfortunately , only about an hour and a half will make it to air , so we don't know yet , but we'll think about it . Maybe in the next issue , we will make a supplement from the unaired footage so that you can share your

24:01wisdom not only in video format , but also in print . And that is , after all , a different format of communication , a different speed of absorbing material . It's very interesting . Paper is the new luxury . Yes , yes . Agreed . Agreed . Friends , the magazine can be purchased ; we don't just give it to our guests .

24:22Anyone interested can follow the link in the description and buy the latest issue of " Founders " via Ozon . There aren't that many left . We are already preparing the new issue , so hurry . There are still magazines available . I told you about food . This is like the Profi.ru equivalent in Yegorda . Uh-huh . When we were building

24:40Yandex.Eda in the very early years , we

24:43decided to investigate what sets apart those contractors who earn little and get poor ratings . After every task , the customer always leaves a rating , and the contractor also rates and reviews the customer . And what do those who get great ratings — and consequently higher earnings — have in common ? We hired two great specialists , sociologists , and

25:04they conducted research . I look at the findings and the first point is a term unfamiliar to me : locus of control . Uh-huh . An internal locus of control — that successful people have an internal locus , while people who get poor reviews and are unsuccessful have an external one . I started researching what internal and external loci of

25:25control are . And a whole vast world opened up to me , which was later confirmed a huge number of times in conversations with entrepreneurs . Even people like Ray Dalio write about this . That most outstanding , successful people are always characterized by an internal locus of control . And someone like Tony Robbins in his books as well

25:45... I mean , two people with absolutely different principles , but they write about the same thing : if a person sees the causes of both their successes and failures primarily in themselves , and tries to change something based on that , they will statistically always rise higher . If a person always sees objective reasons for why things didn't

26:01work out — and they always exist , you will always find them — then you will most likely stay exactly where you are . Look , successful people have two important traits . First , successful people — and this , by the way , is perfectly stated in Islam — successful people always blame only themselves for all failures and problems . And in Islam

26:19, it says : for all your problems and troubles , you are to blame yourself . But for all their luck , achievements , and results , successful people attribute them to fortune , the team , partners , or other people . They are very grateful in that regard . And in Islam , it says : " All your problems and

26:40troubles are from you , but all blessings are from the Almighty . " The Almighty . That is the formula for success . There you go . And what do unsuccessful people do ? Conversely , when they succeed at something , what do they say ? They beat their chests and say : " It was me , it

26:54was me , I did this . " Consequently , they have no gratitude , and therefore , no one wants to work with them . And when things don't work out for them , they say , " Oh , it's his fault , it's that guy's fault , " they are always looking for a scapegoat . And you see ,

27:07what a huge difference there is even in a simple psychological perception mechanism . And this is precisely one of those principles . This is a clear indicator , an example of these principles that I extract from life . and I collect what works , what doesn't , what works , what doesn't . Almost all the mental constructs we are

27:28analyzing today are based on some soft

27:30skills , right ? They are all about our mentality , goal setting , perception of the world , and attitude towards it . What so-called skills would you recommend for entrepreneurs to focus on in the near future to navigate this era of uncertainty and acceleration with

27:51maximum benefit for themselves ? Well , hard skills actually — look , it's not just about hard skills or soft skills ; that’s not what’s important . I even have a separate lecture called " On the Dangers of Unnecessary Knowledge . " Knowledge should also be acquired only for a specific purpose .

28:12There is no need to become a graveyard of useless knowledge . You need to acquire knowledge depending on the necessity of solving a specific problem . And a specific problem arises only when you set a specific goal . Therefore , first and foremost , define your goals . As soon as you start acting , you will start encountering problems . As soon as

28:33you start encountering problems , the need will arise for knowledge on how to solve that problem . That's it , acquire the knowledge , change your behavior . And you don't need to change soft skills or hard skills ; you need to change exactly those skills that solve the problem . As the Chinese say , it doesn't matter what color the cat is ,

28:51as long as it catches mice . I treat knowledge in exactly the same way . For me , the division into soft skills and hard skills is meaningless . For me , only one thing matters : whether the knowledge solves the problem or not . If it doesn't solve it , you can just forget it . Maybe there are some general ones , for

29:06example , prompt engineering , which seems like it would be useful in any case , no matter what your goal is or

29:11what knowledge you want to gain . It's just useful to communicate with artificial intelligence as effectively as possible . Oh no , prompt engineering is also important depending on the goals . Prompt engineering is like a hammer . What you are doing is more important than the tool itself , right ? Look , you can crack the same nuts with pliers , a

29:29brick , or a hammer . Oh , yes , you can even use your fist . Well , yes . Therefore , prompt engineering is just one of the tools . Also , the tool must be consistent with the goal you have . Well , it's good when you have an understanding of which tools can be used in principle . It could be a hammer

29:49, pliers , a bottle opener , a knife , a brick , and so on . But what to use depends on efficiency , the moment , and the context . Look here . I have this concept of power . And so I also teach this point there . Look , I say , power seems to us , ordinary people , like some

30:08absolute truth , right ? Power is just power . But in reality , power depends on the context . And what does " depends on the context " mean ? Power depends on how you use these four questions . What is this world like ? Who are you ? What is your place and what are your goals ? Let

30:25me give you a simple example . If you've been out in nature , maybe you've seen , or maybe not , when an eagle flies at low altitudes , it gets pecked at by everyone who feels like it . Magpies , crows , and sparrows . No. Why ? Because at low altitudes , the eagle loses all its advantages . It’s

30:43the same eagle with the same large wings , but it’s helpless in the forest . Its sharp vision is useless in the forest . Its large wings , which are needed to catch air currents , become a burden . Because flapping them is very difficult . But as soon as it rises to a height , it gains power . Its sharp eye

31:02is needed to survey vast , vast spaces and find prey . Height quickly converts into speed , and speed increases its mass . If its mass is 5-6 kg , at speed it can be 500-600 kg . Accordingly , it can take down prey heavier than itself . Therefore , it turns out that its

31:23location gives it power , not its muscles . Notice , when it correctly answers the question : what is this world , what is my place in this world , and who am I , it gains power . But as soon as it changes position , that's it , it's a nobody . And it's the same in

31:41life . Is a business result , which is expressed in a very simple metric ? money , numbers , some kind of research

31:51metric . Meaning , is it possible to explore the world and at the same time say that I explored it well because the result on the scoreboard is a billion dollars . Well , of course , look , money is one type of resource . But in reality , the most important resource in this world is energy . And in general , everything ,

32:10our entire world is a solid energy field . It is constant movement , dynamics , transformation of energy from one form to another . Everything that happens is moving energy . Even solid objects that we currently consider solid are , in fact , the energy of quantum particles attracting each other . That’s all there is to it . And

32:29therefore , in this world , everything is energy . Money is energy , power is energy , fame is energy , reputation is energy , honor and respect are also energy . Connections are also energy . I designate all of this as resources . And that is my concept , my understanding of

32:49what resources are . Resources are canned , interchangeable energy . That is what resources are . Why canned ? Because to get money , power , fame , reputation , honor , respect , or connections , you had to expend energy in the past ; it gets canned , and then you can trade it . You

33:11can convert power into honor and respect . You can convert honor and respect into money , and money into fame . And these resources are exchanged . Uh-huh . Therefore , money is just one of the metrics . Just one of the metrics . And , I would say , not the most important one . So it is a good indicator , yes . But

33:33when you play on the business field , there are certain rules of the game , and the score there is kept in money . For example , in power . That is also a different kind of game , but the score there is kept in influence . And , for example , in fame , when you pursue fame ,

33:48that is another kind of game . The score there is kept by the level of prominence and trust , that is , reputation . Thus , each game has its own scoring metrics . Do you play in every game ? Practically , yes , I play in every game . And why ? Because , once again , it allows

34:10me to study this world , and it shows me that if the laws I have identified are valid and correct , then they work in any field . Uh-huh . Regardless of whether it is family relationships , business , politics , economics , sports , and so on . Were there any decisions this year that were personally harder for you than

34:30others ? Probably not . First of all , I structure

34:34my life in such a way so as not to have to make big , difficult decisions . Oh . How is that possible in business ? What are big , difficult decisions ? They are small decisions not made in time . When you don't make small , difficult decisions on time , they accumulate and eventually turn into one big decision .

34:54Yes . A problem doesn't just appear in one day . At first , there are signs and symptoms that appear ; you don't react , they get worse , you don't react , they eventually start screaming , and you still don't react . And when things really go to hell , only then are you forced to make a big , difficult

35:12decision . Uh-huh . But if you meet any bad news first , and even welcome it , and don't punish the people who bring you bad news , it leads to you reacting faster , at an earlier stage , and solving the problem before it turns into a big ,

35:32scary problem . How would you describe the times we are currently living in ? I would describe

35:45this time as an era of acceleration . Because I have never felt such an increase in speed with every passing day . While I used to perceive time and progress as linear , right now I acutely feel this hockey-stick curve . And how

36:06progress and time are accelerating with every passing day . We are probably as close as possible to the singularity point now . And the singularity point is when a person is no longer able to keep track of the progress that is happening . I mean , I personally watch a lot of

36:28channels , news , everything related to AI , robots , and so on . And even then , I barely manage to read all the articles . Updates , new technologies , new methods , tools , and so on are coming out so fast . And what do you think is more important

36:50right now in terms of applying

36:53fundamental effort for an entrepreneur : the speed of change or the quality of change ? No matter how high-quality the changes you make are , if you don't do them quickly — well , the world today is built in such a way . Look , that used to be the concept , right ? You take

37:13something and do it well , but now it's like this . It is much more profitable now to do a lot of things poorly , but the main thing is to do them . Then quickly gather feedback and fix it . Make it a little better , gather feedback , make it a little better , gather feedback , make it a little

37:28better . The cycle of improvement is what matters critically now , not whether it was initially bad or good . You can start with some crappy product and very quickly arrive at a perfect product . While someone else might be sitting there trying to make a perfect product right away . In that time , they

37:48will lose the whole market — everything : investors , the market , consumers . Therefore , it’s not a question of quality ; the question of speed is more important now . So , try to do things with quality within the time constraints that you have . You spend a lot of time trying to track

38:08the changes in general , what is happening . I have absolute FOMO in this regard , because as an IT specialist , even I am either afraid of the speed at which this is happening , or I don't even understand it . Moreover , relying on some research I read earlier this

38:29year , where people make certain predictions that " in 2 years we will reach this model quality , " then 3 months pass , and they reach it . I understand that even if the people involved who are directly creating AI are so wrong , then what can be expected of me as a consumer , because I'm not

38:50creating , I'm consuming and trying to somehow keep up . I don't understand anything at all . You just need to relax and watch . There is a thesis that at the beginning of the last century , it didn't really matter who was the first to drive a car or who switched from a

39:07carriage to an automobile . There was also huge enthusiasm , and car clubs were being created . Regardless , history sorted everyone out over the course of 10 , 20 , or 30 years , and the money in the automotive market was made by different guys , not those who just invented or put an internal combustion engine on a carriage . There is a thesis

39:29that one should just relax now , that AI is hype , that venture funds will spend huge amounts of money now , overheat the market , and the bubble will burst or won't — it doesn't matter . Well , some time will pass , and more sensible institutional money will arrive . They will say : " What have you come up with

39:46here ? Aha , got it , let’s implement this . " Is there a feeling that we are , because of the FOMO we have and the attempt to catch up , running as if trying to jump into the last carriage of a train , but in fact , it is not the last carriage ? There is a big difference between the

40:06AI hype and any other types of bubbles . AI is a real technology that actually replaces labor and actually increases efficiency . So , the fact that there is hype in the market is undoubtedly true , and it will certainly deflate . But the point is that the efficiency of the

40:27economy will rise regardless . Artificial intelligence does real things . It replaces actual labor and brings added value . Consequently , companies that use artificial intelligence more will have lower costs , faster service , be more user-friendly , and be easier to scale ; accordingly ,

40:48they will simply eat up your market share , that's all . This is not a question of relaxing here . If you relax , progress will not relax . The situation here is a little different . And this will not pass anyone by ; it will affect each and every one . Each

41:09and every one . And when artificial intelligence is given arms and legs in the form of robots , it will affect 100 % of people . And here , the question that worries me is not the question of making money . I believe that within a 20 - year horizon , humans will move away from creating economic value altogether

41:30. Everything will be done by robots and artificial intelligence , or at least a very large part of the work . The problem is that the more economic value is created by robots and artificial intelligence , the less meaning , the less purpose in life , humans will have , because for most people , the purpose of

41:51life is providing for themselves . And for another , uh , large number , well , a large portion of people , the meaning of life is the game itself , creating value , competition , achievement — that is , self-realization , not self-sufficiency , but self-realization . And that will go

42:13away , too . And the question is , what will people do ? Where will people find meaning now ? And I’m interested in this : when I study artificial intelligence and robots , I definitely know that they will kill off both business and the economy . Not kill off , per se ; I think , and here I agree with

42:34Elon Musk , it will lead to a universal level of prosperity . Everyone will live very well because robots can produce robots , can repair robots , and perform any job . And , accordingly , the necessity for humans will disappear . But the question arises : what will a human do ? I partly agree with you that

42:55we need to relax . But relax in what sense ? Not in the sense of doing nothing . Just realizing what artificial intelligence will now be doing , and finding your own uniqueness . Artificial intelligence will take over , first and foremost , all the work that anyone can do . And only as a last resort will it

43:12encroach upon what only you can do . Therefore , finding one's uniqueness will be the meaning of life for every person , and this will be the only competitive advantage of a human compared to artificial intelligence . Now , a question from Alfa-Bank . What have you implemented in your personal life — not in business — that

43:32you either changed thanks to artificial intelligence and got a result , or increased efficiency recently ? Give a practical example . I have many , I have many . I use knowledge management , primarily — knowledge management and systems of thought — I use them very extensively . I have created 28 assistants for all

43:54sorts of occasions in life . I even have an assistant named Dersu Uzala . It’s from the book and the film * Dersu Uzala * . If you’ve seen the Soviet film , he’s a Gold hunter in the Far East . He is a born hunter . And , well , I engage in — one of my hobbies is

44:14hunting . Accordingly , I ask Dersu Uzala what equipment to buy , what binoculars to choose , how to calculate cartridge ballistics , which cartridge has what ballistics , how to account for wind , the scope , holdover — all these things . I write to him , and he knows everything . What did you base his training on ? Well

44:32, the thing is , first , you write the assistant's passport — uh — then their full profile , then you define the scope and sources they can rely on , yes , and after that , you create the , uh , passport , the profile , and the files . I

44:53upload all the files there — the specifications of my weapons , of the existing binoculars . Uh , our , well , say , location , it immediately pulls up the weather in that area , altitude above sea level , what kind of game lives there , seasonality , hunting season , it pulls everything from the internet . I

45:15just input what it is , and based on all that , it gives , for example , I can ask , " What cartridge should I use this season ? " It asks : " When are you heading out to hunt ? " I say : " On this date . " It says : " Look , at this time the

45:27temperature is usually like this . The animal goes up into the mountains or , conversely , comes down from the mountains because it's being pushed by the snow , so the shooting elevation will most likely be such and such . " It usually grazes early in the morning or late at night , so it is better to use a

45:42thermal imaging scope . A thermal imaging scope of such and such model is better because of the range plus the built-in laser rangefinder and so on . You mount it on this rifle , this cartridge , this bullet weight , this bullet ballistics , this production capacity , and , well , everything , everything . That is just one specific

46:01case . But most of the time , of course , I use it for my philosophical things , for research , for reflection , for identifying laws . I am testing the laws of this world . I say : " Here is what I think , this is how it will be . " " What do you think , what could this lead to ? " "

46:16Here is what I consider to be these and those outcomes . " " Break down the probability of these outcomes for me . " It tells me the probabilities . I say : " Let's test it together now . " We start testing it . I treat it like a junior research assistant , relatively speaking . I even have a board of directors ,

46:32where all the members are . Who is on it ? Warren is in there . He is modeled after Warren Buffett . Uh-huh . Bobby is in there . Bobby is modeled after Bobby Axelrod . A tough businessman and a series billionaire . Billions , yes , Billions . And Logos is in there . That is a name I

46:53gave , but he is a person who reasons only strictly logically , uh , no other way . He immediately senses any violation of logic . Uh-huh . Socrates is in there . Socrates has his Socratic method ; he always looks for answers by asking questions . He never gives his own solutions , uh , he is

47:12always asking questions . Don Juan is in there . Don Juan is from Carlos Castaneda's books . He is responsible for esotericism , because not everything in this world can be read logically and explained by cause-and-effect relationships , because for many things in this world , cause and effect are separated by time and space . And if we

47:35don't see it , we don't understand it , but on an esoteric level , it makes sense . That's why it includes Don Juan , and Wendy , she's a psychologist , a performance psychologist . She’s a psychologist who is focused on achieving goals . And she explains , she

47:55explains why you should act this way and not that way . Well , while taking into account the psychology of other people . And that is the core of my board of directors . And for various problems , I also create working groups . Uh-huh . And when I write something to my artificial intelligence , it immediately

48:13asks me : " Which advisor or assistant do you want to work with ? It is actually very important to set up the assistant correctly . It's a whole job in itself . And then you can add agents to these assistants . That is , it's important that each agent has its own profile . And when you create a swarm of agents ,

48:34each agent must have its own role or profile , and it must be responsible for a specific thing . If , for example , it's a verification agent , then it must be very skeptical . It must know all the latest scientific advances in the field of critical thinking . It must know all cognitive biases and so on . Well , so

48:54much depends on this configuration . You know , one of my latest discoveries was in AI , where I integrated it into my

49:05life , and I got very scared at one moment . I have been keeping a digital diary for over 15 years , which , in my opinion , is the best tool for psychological development . The best tool for self-development and psychoanalysis as well . Because whichever year you open , you can see an objective picture of who you are .

49:26Uh-huh . Anything from 10+ years ago , I read it every time and think : " There's no way I wrote that . " " This is just nonsense . " " This is gibberish . " I mean , you are encountering yourself . It is an objective picture . That's who you were , that's what you dreamed about ,

49:37that's what you were worried about . Now it seems to you that it’s not true , but it actually feels like you were hacked and someone rewrote half of your diary . This year , I fed all these diaries into an AI . It didn't work right away because at some point the AI started adding things and correcting me

49:57. But in the end , I made the first attempt , and literally after a few messages , I started asking it current questions , and after a few messages , I was just in a cold sweat , I literally jumped away from the computer because it started outputting information that I had completely forgotten . And I start

50:19asking , I think , maybe it made it up itself , why did you decide that ? And he starts finding connections over the years and says , " Look , you have the same pattern repeating here . " " Look . " And we went so deep into one topic that it became scary . I mean , it was like

50:38meeting myself for the first time , even though I'd had therapy before and I generally love digging into myself and talking things through . And , well , for me , self-development is a very , very important sphere of life . But it truly scared me . I couldn't even go near it for almost a month afterwards . I mean ,

50:58I had created such a cool tool , and I was afraid of it . It’s amazing ; even when I told acquaintances about it , they said , " Man , it’s great that you started keeping a diary 15 years ago . " I tell them , " Look , he gave me most of the most useful advice based on just

51:13the last year . " Uh-huh . There’s nothing stopping you from recording things at least once a month . You don't even have to write ; just take it , start recording your voice . A very simple framework for what you need to talk about . And you will see it after the first 3 months , just accumulate a

51:28little bit of data . Then , literally , you just need to sit down for a couple of hours one evening , and you’ll have a living tool . And in this regard , it really is very easy to do . You just need the data . A huge tool . People just underestimate it . For example , I have ,

51:47well , advisors for human relationships . I can just take one of your messages , upload it there , and it will tell me : what you wrote , what you meant , why you wrote it , what stage you're at , what you're feeling at that moment , what you

52:10expect from me , what you expect to hear from me , and how you expect me to act . You see , from a single message , it will break down seven or nine layers . Uh-huh . But it depends on how you set up the assistants . Uh-huh . Because look , I studied artificial

52:31intelligence at one time ; I thought I wanted to find its weaknesses . I have this rule in life : where your strength is , there lies your weakness . And I think , what is the weakness of artificial intelligence ? I realized one thing : artificial intelligence knows everything that is on the internet . Accordingly , its strength is that it

52:49knows everything . And I realized , I realized that when you know everything about everything , you practically don't know , you know little about anything specific . Why ? For example , when you know everything — let's say , using political parties as an example — you know everything about the Republicans and everything about the Democrats .

53:06Accordingly , when I tell you something , you give me the average temperature across the hospital . You give me something that satisfies both the Democrats and the Republicans . Do you understand ? Yes . Because for every statement on the internet , there is a counter-statement , right ? And it doesn't know which one to choose

53:21. So it gives an average , to please everyone , both sides . And that is a drawback because it knows that for every statement there is a counter-statement , it knows that counter-statement , it doesn't know which side to take , and it gives an average answer that satisfies most people . And I realized that my task is

53:43to push it to the extremes . Extremes . To do this , I create one assistant who is a hard-line Republican , for example , and another who is a hard-line Democrat . And I ask a question and say : " What is your point of view ? " And it starts hitting hard from the Republican perspective . And then , in the role of a

54:04Democrat , it starts tearing that same point of view to shreds , you see ? That's how you can shake it up . And when you push it to the extremes , it starts giving you adequate opinions , much more accurate ones . And when you collect several extreme points of view , you form the average yourself .

54:24And that is how I identified its weaknesses and figured out how to use them to become even stronger . Could you give three highlights of what , in your opinion , artificial intelligence will never replace and which work will remain for humans ? And

54:40what should artificial intelligence replace in the near future so that it kills entire markets , professions , or industries ? Well , look , artificial intelligence should — and perhaps must — eliminate all routine operations , all boring routine operations that don't make sense from a human perspective . Like moving things from

55:01point A to point B on an assembly line or designing some website . Well , such routine , banal operations . Second , artificial intelligence must definitely replace humans where there is a high probability of human error . Meaning , a person cannot simultaneously analyze 10

55:21strategies , cannot analyze 10,000 websites at once , and cannot read 15,000 articles . Well , a lifetime wouldn't be enough . But artificial intelligence can . So , where a person has a bottleneck in terms of energy , time , or attention , artificial intelligence should take that on .

55:43If we assume there is an average entrepreneur working in the small or medium business segment , in services ,

55:50retail — it doesn't matter . Well , that is , well , a dumpling shop , for example , right ? What should it be doing right now to prepare for an era where artificial intelligence will , at best , influence its business or , at worst , become a threat to it ? If there are currently absolutely no indicators that

56:11artificial intelligence could harm my dumpling shop , let those programmers do whatever they're doing . People have been coming and eating dumplings , and they will continue to eat them . Why should I waste my time on this right now ? But it can already lower its costs and , at the same time , increase customer loyalty . Simply create a call

56:32center based on artificial intelligence . No need to employ people . That's good . You don't have a call center now ; you're a small dumpling shop . But now a call center appears that is completely AI-driven . Across all communication channels , whether WhatsApp , Telegram , or voice . That's good for your business . Good . Costs don't rise ; loyalty rises

56:54, loyalty rises . You can also hand over sales entirely to artificial intelligence . Hand over marketing to artificial intelligence . Hand over social media management and branding to artificial intelligence . So , you can already outsource many operations to artificial intelligence without creating new departments , without hiring new people , and without spending

57:16on salaries and so on . It's the same dumpling shop ; it doesn't get bigger , but you get more customers , they become more loyal , your capacity utilization increases , your costs fall , and you scale more easily because everywhere you open , people already know you .

57:38There is a cost to implementing artificial intelligence . And often , especially in small businesses , it is completely impractical . But just to implement full AI in sales , or a system that completely replaces the first and second lines of a call center , or to implement an LLM trained on your data

57:58— that costs huge money . And moreover , you won't be able to do it yourself . Most likely , you will need an integrator to implement it . So , how feasible is it for a small dumpling shop that works on external traffic ... those times have passed , Denis . Those times have already passed . A call

58:13center can be created by one person in a week . And this call center will perfectly answer all questions . You just take an LLM , a chatbot , and RAG , that generation — you attach memory to

58:37the LLM . That memory can be a vector database , a relational database , or a graph database . It allows for semantic , contextual , and any kind of search . Once a request comes in via Telegram or WhatsApp , the agent in something like N8N instantly triggers a request , pulls

58:58the necessary info , and through another agent , responds with a pleasant voice to any question . It’s being done . Well , honestly , a week is way too long . I can build it in 3 days , while you spend years studying the subject in depth .

59:19No , there is tons of this stuff on the market now . Honestly , even a student can do it now . So , I don’t need to hire a special marketing director to handle this for me . There are so many refined workflows and ready-made scripts out there . You can go to a GitHub repository , just

59:38grab someone else’s work , change the names , plug it in , and that’s it . People have already done it . Just take a dumpling shop template instead of a cafe , swap in your shop's name , and you’ve got a working call center . Yeah . I’d like to conduct a poll . What percentage of our users actually

59:57know what GitHub is ? The problem is that people don’t study , but they should at least learn these things . But these are just basic , trivial things . Yeah . Let’s provide some recommendations or directions . What should I start doing right now , just to

1:00:14get familiar with the terminology , maybe some conferences or podcasts where I can observe best practices ? Uh-huh . Or should I just sit back until my neighbor , the owner of the other dumpling shop , does the same thing , while my market is safe and I have no competition ? And I’ll just stay calm

1:00:34while people come in to eat and don’t ... Look , the thing is , AI doesn’t make people smarter ; it makes smart people smarter and dull people duller . And the question is : do you choose growth or stagnation ? If you choose growth , you must constantly solve tasks you haven't tackled before . This means not the

1:00:56tasks you already know how to solve , but working on problems where you don’t even know or imagine the solution . So , what does that mean ? It means you have to say : " Yes , AI can do all of this . My goal , even if I don't have a call center for my dumpling shop

1:01:11, is to build one . That’s it , push yourself . There are a million videos on YouTube about creating a call center . There are a million videos on YouTube on how to do it yourself , without hiring any specialists , just by dedicating two hours a day , and you’ll be able to do it in a week . "

1:01:27It’s a matter of personal choice : to grow or not to grow . It's not like , oh , this is too hard , I can't do it , let others do it . The time when programmers were an elite , an intellectual elite in people's minds , has passed . It was believed that these were people who

1:01:48spoke an alien language , only writing apps for us , and our only task was to use them . Today , anyone can replace a programmer . Anyone at all . Do you have a recent example that really surprised you , either in your business or another

1:02:07, where a company implemented AI and achieved incredible results in speed or efficiency ? What is the first example that comes to mind ? Well , look , there aren't many major examples like that yet . Actually , recent studies I've read show that 95 % of large companies haven't felt the

1:02:27impact of AI yet . Yes , they lost money , despite having invested billions . But that is completely logical . It is entirely to be expected . The AI hype is also reflected in the fact that people aren't just buying expensive AI stocks , they're also wasting unreasonable amounts of money on implementing AI .

1:02:50You shouldn't do that . You shouldn't try to solve AI by throwing money at it . That's how things usually go in large corporations . A Vice President of Artificial Intelligence is appointed . They tell him : " Okay , next year 15 % of our operations must be done by AI , then 30 % , then 45 % , and here is the chart . "

1:03:08That's a purely bureaucratic machine ; it doesn't work that way . I expect that we will only really start to feel it in about 3 to 5 years . How would you start your journey as an entrepreneur in 2026 if you had nothing ? And would you even go into entrepreneurship in 2026 at all

1:03:22? Well , look , in 2026 , I would go into entrepreneurship as long as it remains , relatively speaking , the easiest way for me to earn money . I just don't really see how I could earn money as an employee . I mean , I understand , but the money there is small , right ? And I

1:03:45don't see how to do it in politics other than taking bribes . I don't want to take bribes . Yes . But with entrepreneurship , I clearly understand the rules of the game , how to act , and so on . But regarding investments , you say there are no resources . Okay , but you can manage other people's money , so

1:03:58you can engage in investments that way too . In general , my approach is paradoxical , which surprises many : if you want to succeed in any field , give a lot upfront and receive gradually and little by little . Let me give you an example . I work a lot with volunteers . So , uh , imagine a volunteer . I'm

1:04:19sitting there , and a volunteer , uh , is

1:04:21walking around cleaning tables at some forum , comes up to me and says , " Magvich , I see you're reading a report ; let me set up Excel and Power BI for you . " I say , " What can you do ? " " I can do it . " He set it up . Everything works

1:04:34great . I'm like , " Wow , how do you know how to do that ? " He says , " Well , I can set up your email , I can build you a Telegram bot . " " You don't say ? " Do it . " He does this , then that , then something else . Then I get the feeling

1:04:48that , damn , I don't want to lose a person like this . I tell him , " Listen , why don't you come work for me , on a salary , I'll pay you ? " He says , " Well , whatever you want , I was ready to work for you anyway . " I start paying him a

1:05:05salary , and he starts putting in even more effort , working even harder , doing even more . I feel like he's really cool , and I start offering him a raise because I'm afraid someone will snatch him up and lure him away . I give him more . And so , gradually , he grows to become my partner . And what is he doing

1:05:22? Yes . And what is he doing ? He gives a lot and receives gradually , bit by bit . Now imagine when a person wants to get a lot right away , they come and say , " Arivich , give me a salary of how much ? 5,000 . " My immediate answer is , " Why

1:05:36the hell would I ? Why the hell should I give you anything ? " Accordingly , I think , " Damn , get this volunteer out of here , he hasn't done anything yet and he's already asking for something . " The world is structured this way . First you give , and it's in your interest to give

1:05:49as much as possible , so that they get a taste of you , so that they start needing you . That's why I always say , " First , to achieve success , create demand for yourself . Second , expand that demand . " And when you have great demand , you get one of the elements of

1:06:08power called an alternative . You have an alternative , but they don't . Uh-huh . And that's when your price starts to rise . That's it . That is success . Uh-huh . Super . What industry would you get into ? It absolutely doesn't matter . I would get into the industry that has the

1:06:26greatest amount of attention . That is the only criterion by which I choose where to work . Where there is attention , there is money . Attention is , from the market's perspective , It's public attention , it's hype , it's public attention , it's what people are talking about , the topics that are most popular at conferences and so on . But

1:06:48in this case , right now , it’s obviously artificial intelligence . Obviously . Where is the money right now ? All the money is where it's most effectively used to build a career . Obviously , there . Which mistakes would you definitely try to avoid ? Well , first , the big mistakes . Second , mistakes involving irreversible losses .

1:07:10Meaning , things you can't undo . It’s not always about money . Sometimes you make a mistake regarding a person , and that's it , the bond is broken . And you can't get that back . You can't play that back . Uh-huh . So those are the two mistakes I would try to avoid . As for all other mistakes

1:07:30, I would actually try to make as many as possible — as many small mistakes and mistakes where losses are reversible . And if you earned your first money , where would you invest it ? I always have a rule : always invest in yourself first . Even when I invest in

1:07:49rest , when I spend on my own relaxation , people often ask , why is that an investment ? It's because my main product is decision-making . So , when I am well-rested , I make better decisions . I make better choices . So , first of all , it's in myself ; second , in all the

1:08:10levers I use . That means my assistants , my team , my companies . Would you do business alone or with a partner ? I would prefer a partner . Moreover , I wouldn't want to be the main partner . And what criteria would you use to choose a lead partner ?

1:08:31I would choose a partner based on specific criteria . First , they must be energetic ; second , they must be deeply involved in what they do . Because engagement is the primary unlocker of talent . If they are engaged , they will learn everything . They might not know much at the start , but I know for sure

1:08:50that the best way to grow and learn is by doing . Doing what you don't know . And that is possible when you love what you do , when you have a high degree of involvement . And the third criterion is human qualities , meaning having shared core values , because what use is an effective partner if we can't get along

1:09:12in life ? Uh-huh . And what criteria would you use to hire your first team ? Hiring my team . Well , first and

1:09:22foremost , it’s values . Values ; the team consists of people who were drawn to my values . They share my values . And that is why they do not work for me . And I always say : " Never work for me . Work for the mission that we are fulfilling . " Therefore , in any team , I

1:09:38do not look for loyalty to me at all . I look for loyalty to the mission that we are carrying out . That is the first thing . The second point is teamwork . Teamwork , because the main point of a team is the multiplication or synergistic effect of everyone's efforts . Therefore , a lack of teamwork

1:09:56is the same as a person being a loner . I don't need a pack of lone wolves , so to speak . One man on the field is just one man . But men who are assigned specific roles make a team . That is a football team . Therefore , teamwork , and for that , again , moral values and moral

1:10:16principles . Plus , of course , is their ability to adapt . And to adapt means to act , to accept mistakes , acknowledge them , improve , and move on . So , the very act of making mistakes is not a bad indicator at all . Well , it's

1:10:37actually the opposite , a good indicator . The more small mistakes with reversible consequences a person makes , the more they learn , which means they are taking more action . So , these are the main criteria , there are a few , but these are the basics . Naturally , there are side benefits like a positive

1:10:53outlook on life , humility — because a humble person is usually a team player — and a positive attitude . This means that in any failure , they always see a positive outcome . Well , it all ties together ; everything reinforces everything else . What advice would you give yourself during the most difficult period of your life ?

1:11:15Well , look , there is such a thing as survivorship bias , when a successful person is asked what helped them , and they talk about certain factors , but at the same time , there are 9,999 entrepreneurs who didn't survive , and they don't talk about it . Consequently , people only hear from the winner and

1:11:36think that these are the most correct qualities , right ? But I will do the opposite here . Since today , thank God , I am in a prosperous state and living a happy life , it means that what I did was the most effective . Accordingly , I wouldn't change anything I did . And you

1:11:57have businesses , you have projects , and you surely build strategies with your teams , from which goals , plans , KPIs ,

1:12:04OKRs , and so on are somehow decomposed . And , of course , not all of them are realized . Doesn't that disappoint you ? Not at all , even if it missed the mark by a lot . Well , look , firstly , I teach my team and insist that the team shouldn't set results as their goal ; the team should

1:12:26set the process as their goal , because a proper process will always lead to proper results . What an uncommon opinion . And you can only be disappointed if you set the result as your goal . Uh-huh . For example , to reach , say , 10 million dollars in net profit . Boom , and you didn't reach it ,

1:12:43right ? Yes . But if you built a process that makes you most efficient , then in the end , it turns out to be 10 , 12 , or 15 , or it's just a signal or feedback that the process wasn't efficient enough . And then we sit down and figure out where we could have done better and

1:13:01why we didn't . Uh-huh . Thus , for me , it's not the result itself that holds value . What holds value for me is the feedback from the market , because any result is feedback . Uh-huh . It can be positive feedback , negative feedback . But it's all raw material for work , for work in the next period .

1:13:24Surely there were companies this year where budgets were cut , employees were

1:13:30downsized , uh , people were fired , perhaps , who had been tasked with certain goals that they didn't meet . And did you make those decisions yourself ? No. No. The team , yes , the team makes those . I , I make decisions only when I invest in certain companies . Well , and maybe when firing

1:13:52top managers . And even then , extremely , extremely rarely , because I strive for the decision to fire to be made not by me , but by the data . If the data shows — our data is set up like a traffic light , there are data points : yellow zone , red zone ,

1:14:12green zone . If a company hits the yellow zone , it means , well , pay attention . I start calling to find out ; if it's in the red zone , it's clear , and if it stays in the red zone for a quarter with no upward trend , it's automatically a matter of firing . Uh-huh . But at the same time , it's not

1:14:34a fatal issue like the company going bankrupt , right ? Because if you react in time to the firing and look , look , bankruptcy also happens . This year , for example , one startup I invested 3.3 million dollars in didn't take off . I see , well , and well , it didn't take off .

1:14:53Aha . And what what was that , Oh , they came , they came for another small portion of money . Aha . And I gave them a portion , a small portion of money , well , it was literally around 150,000 dollars to pay for servers and secured 3 months . Over those 3 months , I also raised the

1:15:12prices for all their products fourfold . He says , " The clients will run away . " And I say , " What's the difference ? You're bankrupt either way . " And it'll be one of two things : either clients will pay without a word , meaning you built a great product but just set the price too low , and that's the story of

1:15:27your problem . Or , indeed , the clients will run away . Well , then you'll realize all the faster that the patient is more dead than alive . And time is not exactly a difficult decision there . I didn't make a difficult decision here . I knew what I was getting into when I invested . And I

1:15:44knew roughly what the consequences would be , and with what probability . Uh-huh . Because it's obvious that not all startups take off ; most of them fail . What ended up happening with the startup ? Well , they have until the end of the year left , and the process is still ongoing . Well , there's still a month left .

1:16:04Uh-huh . I'd like to ask a couple of questions about the community . We've touched on this topic several times today already . In general , how

1:16:11important is it for an entrepreneur to surround themselves with real people , despite the fact that we all have phones and some AI that can give us access to any information and all the world's knowledge in a second ? In general , is it worth spending time on a community , on surrounding yourself with people ? If so , then with what kind of

1:16:32people ? Well , I have a rule that serves as the slogan for our Kaizen club : opportunities and the resources to realize them come through people . The larger your area of contact with reality and with people , the higher your chances that you'll get lucky , that an opportunity will arise , and the resources to realize that opportunity

1:16:53will appear . But there is one " but " here . It's like , you know , what I just said is as if you could just take seeds and throw them down and they'll sprout . But if you throw them onto concrete , nothing will grow on concrete . And if you throw them into fertile soil , most of them will

1:17:11sprout . Therefore , it's very important to choose the right fields . Fields of luck . I also call them fields of luck . These are growing people , growing communities , growing countries , and growing industries . So , it's advisable to be in a community of AI entrepreneurs , in a community of young entrepreneurs , and in a community of

1:17:33industries that are growing , and so on . Meaning , to be in such communities . And it's very important that this environment , this " nutrient medium , " pulls a person forward . You just start thinking like them , acting like them , thinking like them , and in the end , you become like them .

1:17:53I want to support both points , based on my own experience and the experience of members of our business community : all opportunities come from people , and having the right people around you directly affects your results and your success because we also grow through people . And friends , you know , we have the Founder's Business Club . We

1:18:13recently celebrated our first year . And over this year , we've had many guests who first came to our YouTube channel , then joined our community , and then attended our conferences . You may have seen many of them , but in the community , they share their experience in a private , behind-the-scenes format . The next year will be very difficult .

1:18:33Everyone I've spoken to in recent months , from corporate executives to small and medium business owners , is preparing for a very serious , very tough year . And it's always easier to get through difficulties together with allies . We are lucky in this regard , because our business community has founders from different fields ,

1:18:54different markets , and different companies , with diverse experience they are ready to share . So , I have no choice but to invite you to spend the coming year with us and invest in yourself and your company by joining the Founder's Business Club . I won't say it will be easy — but when was it

1:19:15ever easy ? — it will definitely be easier and more fun . The link is in the description . Submit your applications . The website is osnovat.org . We will get in touch with you to get acquainted , get to know each other better , and perhaps spend the next year ... ... together . Can we conclude that , well ,

1:19:31there is some kind of formula that works in most cases ? I am sure that

1:19:37statistically , entrepreneurs who can confirm they spent some time in an environment of stronger entrepreneurs — not necessarily stronger in terms of business results , but rather those who had experience that these entrepreneurs hadn't yet encountered . That is , they

1:19:57could literally buy experience , but through other people . Well , look , it all depends on the person again . It all depends on the person . And here , look , what does " depends on the person " mean ? Does the person themselves have the answers to the four basic , fundamental questions I mentioned ? What is this world like ? Who

1:20:14am I , and what is my place ? And what do I want ? If they don't know the answers to these questions , then no community will help them . And in general , this world is a world of probability . There is no black or white here . There is this world , a world of shades of gray .

1:20:30We exist in a world of probabilities . We're just saying that if a person is energetic , their probability is higher than someone who isn't . Furthermore , if they are in the right community , their probability is higher than someone who isn't in the right community . Furthermore , if they make many small mistakes , learn lessons , and improve ,

1:20:47they have even higher probability . Essentially , everything you do is just stacking the odds in your favor . And then success becomes inevitable . Because there’s this concept of process ergodicity , which states : " When you assemble a basket of certain probabilities , the result is guaranteed

1:21:08. " Let’s look at a counter-example , for instance . If you smoke , that’s one set of odds . If you smoke very often , that’s a different set of odds . If you smoke often , plus you drink , and drink often — that’s another probability . And if you smoke , drink , drink often , and love riding a

1:21:24motorcycle — that’s yet another probability . But if you smoke , drink , love riding a motorcycle at night , and run red lights , I wouldn’t bet a dollar on your life . Uh-huh . See , you’re just accumulating them . Uh-huh . That’s why entrepreneurship and the path to success are , in reality , just accumulating positive

1:21:45probabilities in your favor . This whole

1:21:47world is probabilistic . And that’s why there is no secret to success . The secret to success isn't finding some magic silver bullet , but rather building a basket of probabilities that , with a higher likelihood — though never 100 % — leads you to success . And

1:22:07staying in the game for a long time . Well , the duration of time you stay in the game is exactly what affects your basket of probabilities . The longer you stay , the more probabilities you stack in your favor . Uh-huh . You know , I have a theory . When I started doing interviews , I got

1:22:24really hooked on biographies , especially of people from the past . I would have loved to interview some entrepreneurs from Tsarist Russia , because there were certainly some unique people back then . And later , I had the chance to meet in person the very people I had once read about , and not always on camera ,

1:22:43because many people aren't really willing to say anything on camera . And I’ve caught myself thinking a few times that when you read a biography or a story polished by PR agents in a book , it shapes up into a sort of strategy — like , the person worked so hard and diligently — but then you meet them in

1:23:00person , and it turns out the turning point usually boiled down to two things . The first is the appearance of someone in their life , someone from a completely different level , who simply for various reasons gave them something , brought them something , helped them , or pulled them up to their own level , and often in ways that weren't even

1:23:20financial — it wasn't a commercial story at all . The second one , as cliché as it may sound , is really just being in the right place at the right time , ending up in a market that was growing . You happen to know someone who understood it , another friend provided the money , and together you just boom ,

1:23:37built a retail chain at the dawn of the retail market in Russia , for example , or became a developer . I call this field luck . Well , for example , you are a genius , you work 24/7 , but , say , you're somewhere in Tajikistan , versus the same genius working in Silicon Valley . Well , you

1:23:54have to agree , the results will be different . Why ? Because they ended up in different fields . All major successes of any prominent businessman , politician , or anyone else are based on luck . And luck is the action of external forces . The problem is that we were raised from childhood with the wrong belief . We were brought up with

1:24:15the belief that everything depends

1:24:17solely on us . And consequently , when we set goals , we immediately start acting , because we think that achieving our goals is our responsibility . But in reality , achieving your goals is not your responsibility . Look , a correct belief , one of the things I teach — I’m just showing little fragments of

1:24:37what I teach . I say : " Look , achieving any goal requires a certain amount of resources . That’s an axiom : energy , time , money , and so on , connections , a certain amount of resources . That’s an axiom . A bigger goal requires more resources . A smaller goal requires fewer resources . Right ?

1:24:55That’s rule number one . Rule number two goes like this : these don't necessarily have to be your resources . So that doesn't mean if you don't have the resources , you won't achieve big goals . Rule number three . Achieving your goals is not your responsibility . This is the real bombshell . This is the fundamental paradigm shift . People

1:25:14don't understand how that can be . The goal is mine , after all . I say : " So what ? " And the fourth rule I bring up : achieving your goals should be someone's income . And when achieving your goals is someone's income , it is no longer your responsibility . You just have to build such a system . And we are

1:25:30brought up wrongly , so that when we set a goal , we immediately run to achieve it . But look , let's take an example . You are swimming in that direction ; you could take oars and row there immediately , or you could stop , look around , and choose a current that flows in that direction . There you go ,

1:25:49achieving your goals is no longer your responsibility . The current is carrying you there . You need to understand one basic thing . We humans think too highly of ourselves . The power of external forces is millions of times greater than the power of any single individual . So , first and foremost , you need to think about how to use external forces

1:26:10to lead you to your goals . And that is a different paradigm , requiring different actions . As Rockefeller once said , or at least is attributed to him : " The person who spends all day earning money will never create wealth . " Why ? Because the process of creating wealth is a different process with different

1:26:28actions , while the process of earning money involves different actions . When businessmen come to me and say , " I've hit a ceiling , " and so on , I tell them : " To fix that , you must start doing something else , or the same thing , but in a different way . " And that is a

1:26:41different level of thinking . The problem is that all the benefits of this world , all the successes of this world , are actually in our heads . We underutilize the potential of our brains . We underestimate how much the right beliefs and the right concepts

1:27:00affect our lives . I have one comment regarding luck . Isn't there a sense of devaluation in the thesis that " he just got lucky " ? People often say : " Yeah , he just got lucky . " It is a form of devaluation because , for him to " just get lucky , " he invested a huge amount of effort ,

1:27:17showed immense curiosity , determination , went through suffering and pain , took full responsibility , and yes , he just got lucky . He generated a number of actions , some of which worked . But telling people that any person's success is just a series of circumstances that can be labeled as " luck " seems to devalue one person while

1:27:40giving others the right to blame these external factors , saying : " Well , I'm just living here in my own cave . " Exactly . Because I wasn't lucky , but others were just lucky . There is this concept called the Dunning-Kruger effect , where unsuccessful people attribute the success of others to luck , while attributing their own successes

1:27:58to themselves . And so , I am teaching exactly how to create the conditions under which you get lucky . This is one of the main concepts I explain . The thing is that luck , what is luck ? First and foremost , it is an event . It is events . Plus your

1:28:20own power . Let me clarify . Look , events happen every single day . Every day , millions of events , thousands of events , and so on , occur . Events themselves are neutral . But the events you can extract luck from , or , roughly speaking , how you can make an event work in

1:28:41your favor , depends on your strength . And what does your strength consist of ? First , when you have the knowledge to recognize an opportunity in an event , because people don't see opportunities in events , and for that , you need the knowledge to recognize an opportunity . Second , you must have the money to use

1:28:58that event to your advantage . You must have the connections to use that event to your advantage . So , the stronger you are , the more events you can turn into luck . Uh-huh . Therefore , I have a separate concept for defining what strength is , what luck is , and so on . And I teach

1:29:18specifically how to make it so that you can extract luck from a larger number of events . Uh-huh . And overall , I have identified four types of luck . There is random luck . And even random luck isn't entirely random , because , relatively speaking , you could be walking through a forest

1:29:39— well , let's say you're a hunter , you're walking through the forest and want to catch a deer . So , I'll ask you , are you hoping for random luck ? You say , " Yes . " I say , " You know what ? Cover twice as much of the forest area as someone else , and you'll have twice as

1:29:56much luck . " Because random luck depends on the density of your contact with reality . The more acquaintances , friends , communication , and so on you have , the greater your chances that luck will arrive , even if it is random . So , there is random luck . Second , there is luck based on searching , when you

1:30:17purposefully look for opportunities . And third , there is luck based on magnetism , when you set up a situation where luck comes to you on its own . Uh-huh . And the fourth is systematic luck . That's when you utilize , well , I call it the nature of things . Let's

1:30:40take them in order . Let's use fishing as an example . For example , random luck is when you take a rod , go to the first body of water you find , cast your line , and fish . You don't know what you're fishing for , you don't know if you'll catch anything or not . It's absolutely

1:30:53random . Now , how do you increase random luck ? You take 10 rods , cast them in , maybe in two different bodies of water , and you have better chances . Although that is still random luck . Right . Right . Next . Luck based on searching . Based on searching . What could that look like

1:31:07? For instance , you put on a mask , take a speargun , and swim around looking for fish . That's based on — the larger the water body , the more of it you swim through , the luckier you get . Based on your search , you are looking for big opportunities . Luck based on a magnet .

1:31:24When you take a net with bait , cast it , the fish come themselves , and then you choose among them , shoot or catch them . What do fishermen do ? They throw out bait , don't they ? How do they create this luck ? By using a magnet . But there is systematic luck , when you use the

1:31:44nature of things . And what does the nature of things mean ? The fish is alive . It’s alive . Since it's alive , it moves . And since it moves , it will end up in the net . So you take a net , block off the pond , and you don't wait for it to get hungry , because a magnet

1:31:58depends on the fish's hunger — whether it's hungry or not , right ? But a net depends only on the movement of the fish . So , if it’s alive , it moves , and if it moves , it will be mine . That’s all . This is systematic luck , based on the nature of things . And I teach these

1:32:18tools , exactly how to build this in life using practical , concrete tools . Luck is not something mythical , it is not some kind of miracle . In general ,

1:32:31people call a miracle something where they cannot connect cause and effect . When people cannot connect cause and effect , they don't see them simultaneously , they consider it a miracle . For example , I could scratch the back of my head , and an apple could appear on that chair . To you , that would be a miracle . You don't see the

1:32:48cause-and-effect relationship . But , for example , it might turn out that I scratch my head , and that is a signal to my assistant to put an apple there . While I distract you , she put the apple there ; you look , and it appears . Whoa , but you don't see the cause-and-effect relationship . For you , it's a miracle ,

1:33:03but for me , it's not , because there is a clear cause-and-effect connection . So , in luck , it's the same thing . There is a certain pattern , and it can be built . And people who have achieved great success — when I say they achieved it through luck , it is not at all devaluing their merits . No , it’s

1:33:25just that they were unconsciously doing what corresponds to what I am talking about . They unconsciously , perhaps according to their character traits , baited people . Maybe he is kind , generous , you know ? Kindness , generosity , nobility attract other people . He is honest , decent , sociable , open . He attracts people to himself ,

1:33:47you understand ? Or he is interesting , and thanks to being interesting , he created a brand , and people flock to him . There , he created a magnet , there you go . People do this unconsciously . I see it , uncover it , name it , define it as a concept , and then teach it to

1:34:06other people . That is doing it consciously . Do you feel the difference ? It is one thing to stumble upon it by accident , and another to build it consciously . Margulan , thank you so much . I am very pleased . We have honestly been thinking for the second year now that we need to

1:34:25do something with you ; I genuinely admire the products you create and the absolute treasure trove of knowledge gathered on your channel . It is very great , it is very important . And this experience — after all , you are a person even across several generations who is already passing this experience on to the new generation . That is very

1:34:45cool . And in this regard , I just want to wish you good health , motivation , and energy to keep doing this . Thank you very , very much . Yes , it is very nice to appear on this channel , especially with such an audience . I truly love and respect businessmen and investors because these are people who

1:35:02pay for their success with money ; they bear the risk and take the responsibility . Unlike politicians or , let's say , cultural figures or athletes who risk their bodies or their voices and so on , businessmen risk much more . They risk their own lives and the lives of other people , their loved ones , their employees , and so on . Well , the

1:35:24risk and responsibility are colossal . That is why I have a great deal of respect for businessmen , investors , and especially company founders . And your channel is called " Founders " — this is the audience I respect and admire the most . I want to serve such people and share knowledge with them . Find your

1:35:41own , and you will find your own way . Find your own way , and you will find yourself . Finding " my own " means businessmen and investors ; these are my people . I enjoy sharing knowledge specifically with them , working with them , so they can change their lives and their reality . And it is very

1:35:56important , look , guys : knowledge is only given to change your reality in the direction you want . Everything else is extra , unnecessary knowledge . Treat knowledge like a hammer or a pair of pliers . That’s it . In other words , do not overestimate the value of knowledge . Unfortunately , we have a cult of

1:36:13knowledge . We overestimate it . Therefore , thank you very much for the invitation . It was a pleasure to speak before this audience . In the future , of course , if the content earns the right to exist , we can do a second one . Super . Thank you so much . Thank you . Yeah .