Full transcript
0:00While you are paying more for gasoline ,
0:02there are those who are actually
0:04getting paid for oil . And this happens
0:06every single night without anyone doing
0:08anything and without the price moving a
0:10single cent . In this video I will
0:12explain why oil could remain expensive
0:14longer than you think and how the
0:16system that pays those who buy it on
0:18the stock exchange works . Watch this
0:20video until the end because I will show
0:22you exactly where the real opportunity
0:24in oil is hidden . The market is
0:26discounting that today the price per
0:28barrel is around $ 100 , but it could
0:30reach around $ 80 a barrel , a
0:31development which is quite obviously
0:33very good news for all of us . However ,
0:36it is not good news for how the market
0:37works , because this stuff that you see
0:39from what the market discounts in the
0:41future of contracts on the stock
0:42exchange is an anomaly and it is called
0:44backwardation . Backwardation is exactly
0:46what lies behind this mechanism ,
0:47meaning that today's contract , for
0:49example the September contract for oil ,
0:51costs significantly more than the
0:52subsequent contract for the following
0:54month , the month of October , the month
0:56of November , or the month of December .
0:58This stuff here is an anomaly because ,
1:00think about it , what kind of economy
1:02would be an economy based on the fact
1:03that tomorrow's prices are lower than
1:05today's prices ? And this is the anomaly
1:08in which we must and can effectively
1:10intervene to earn a little something ,
1:12because there is a gap , there is a
1:14possibility , there is an opportunity , a
1:16real chance for us to act . The strategy
1:19is all about the breeding part , the DG
1:22breeding platform on oil , Brandon , VTI
1:24allows us to make money on the fact
1:26that the next contract , the contract
1:28expiring next month , is lower than the
1:30current contract . Why ? Because I do not
1:34know if you have noticed , but if I
1:36wanted to enter with 10 lots long on
1:38oil , I repeat , Brent or WTI , it is the
1:40exact same thing , and we proceed to
1:42press buy , entering 10 lots and going
1:44to observe what the platform's costs
1:46and commissions are , guys , you are in
1:48for a wonderful surprise because , in
1:50effect , the minus symbol that appears
1:52before the commission costs is actually
1:54a plus inside of your own portfolio .
1:57Because I don't know if you know this ,
1:59but I'll explain it to you now : the
2:00broker pays you or withholds
2:02commissions based on , let's say , the
2:03market conditions at that time . In a
2:07traditional market , the moment I go
2:09long , in theory , I should pay the
2:11broker who is obviously lending me
2:13money and keeping that specific
2:15position open for several days . Okay ?
2:18In abnormal market conditions , if I go
2:20long , it is the broker who pays me
2:22because the price of the next expiry is
2:23lower than the price of the expiry that
2:25is currently being traded at this time .
2:28For example , with 10 open long oil
2:30contracts , representing roughly €
2:3310,000 in margin value to which you
2:35must apply leverage , the broker pays
2:37you € 150 per day for 10 long oil
2:40contracts , regardless of whether they
2:42are crude or Brent . So what could I do ?
2:48I know that the fundamentals are there .
2:50I know that oil has unfortunately been
2:52plagued by various geopolitical
2:53anomalies , such as the conflicts we see
2:55in the Middle East and other similar
2:57factors . So I know that the fundamental
3:00part is strong on oil , but I know that
3:02Leia , the Energy Information
3:03Administration , sees a target price for
3:05oil between $ 90 and $ 100 a barrel by
3:07the end of the year . I know that there
3:10is the diesel problem , I know that
3:11there is the refining problem , I know
3:13that there is a hypothetical future
3:14problem regarding geopolitical
3:15uncertainty . So , basically , the fact
3:18that I can go long is probably not that
3:21risky . Given everything we have seen so
3:23far . On the other hand , even if this
3:25situation were to go badly , the broker
3:26would actually pay me . So , in theory ,
3:29this also tells us something else : that
3:31for those who want to go short on oil ,
3:33generally speaking , it is not very
3:35convenient to use the futures contracts
3:37that are currently found along what is
3:39known as the contracts curve .
3:42Backwardation , as we mentioned earlier ,
3:43meaning the subsequent contract is
3:45priced lower than the current contract ;
3:47And so this implies that the closer I
3:48move toward the upcoming expiration
3:50date , the more likely it becomes that
3:51such a price will be effectively
3:53reached , provided that there are no
3:54unforeseen systemic shocks occurring .
3:57So it is as if the broker says : I am
3:59certain that in one month the contract
4:01will be four dollars lower , so I will
4:03either debit those four dollars to the
4:06cost of your short position , or I will
4:08pay them to you within the cost of
4:10holding a long position . It is all very
4:12, very simple . So , what could we
4:14actually do ? We could structure an
4:16operation , perhaps for the long or
4:18medium term , maybe lasting until the
4:20end of the year , while hoping for an
4:21increase in the costs of the raw
4:23material which , if you really think
4:25about it , is also a way to rebalance
4:26the risk of the consumer . In other
4:29words , if I go long on oil , it is as if
4:31I am saying : I am going to hedge
4:32against a possible rise in market
4:33prices . Therefore , the paradox is
4:35exactly this . The paradox is that if I
4:36go long on oil , the broker pays me and
4:38I hedge . The fundamental aspect is
4:40obviously positive for the price , but
4:42clearly negative for us as consumers .
4:43Everything that I have shown you in
4:45this video can be found on the DIG
4:47platform , which is the one that we also
4:49use . If you want to verify everything
4:50with your own eyes , all you need to do
4:52is sign up via the link provided below
4:54in the description and in the First
4:55comment . I would also like to remind
4:58you that with an account with the
5:00broker IG you will have access to a ton
5:02of exclusive content from
5:03investire.bizz , such as the private
5:05Telegram group , live trading every day
5:07and our proprietary indicators . To
5:10learn more , send us an email to
5:12info@investire.bizz . Just pay attention
5:15to one thing , pay attention to the
5:16expiration dates , because it is true
5:18that this contract never expires ,
5:19because in fact I took the cash that
5:21has no expiration date and therefore
5:22you do not have to keep track , close
5:24and reopen every time a contract
5:25expires . However , the other side of the
5:27coin is that the technical expiration
5:29dates are important because , as I was
5:30saying before , the closer I get to the
5:32technical expiration date , the more
5:33this price must be as similar as
5:35possible to that of the following
5:36expiration date . And so you can see for
5:38yourselves exactly why the price of oil
5:40has dropped by such a significant
5:41margin over these last few days . Why ?
5:43Because we are approaching the
5:44technical expiration date . In fact , on
5:46the American Crew Oil , on the American
5:47VT , tomorrow is the technical
5:49expiration date . Starting tomorrow , The
5:52day after tomorrow , what was supposed
5:53to be reached , the price of $ 91 per
5:55barrel of cash on IG , is probably the
5:56movement that was supposed to make ; it
5:58has already done so , because it was
5:59already discounted in futures prices .
6:02That's all . So the retracement has
6:04occurred and I am now sitting on a very
6:06important support , a former resistance
6:07at 91.81 which dates back to July of
6:09this year , specifically July 24th - 25th
6:112026 , representing a former
6:13accumulation area that subsequently
6:15pushed the price back to reach new
6:16highs for the period . I would say that
6:19there is a symmetry , a hypothetical
6:20potential opportunity that in my
6:21opinion , or rather no , in my opinion is
6:23something that you don't see every day ,
6:24this stuff exists today , it is updated
6:26day after day . If there were to be
6:28changes tomorrow , obviously the funding
6:30would change as well as the commissions
6:32, so please ensure that you are
6:33constantly monitoring the situation on
6:35a daily basis . It doesn't update in
6:36real time , it then updates from 11 p.m.
6:38, from midnight of the same day , but
6:39always keep an eye on it because the
6:40situation can really change from one
6:41moment to the next . At the moment in
6:44which which obviously changes , you have
6:45to be good at taking profits , closing
6:47positions and taking everything home
6:48because it is a temporary situation . It
6:50can last for a few months , or it can
6:52last for a few weeks , or it can last
6:54for a few days . That's why the monthly
6:56calculation remains the same , about 4 %
6:58per month , obviously if the conditions
7:00remain as they are . And indeed , looking
7:03at the futures curve , the situation is
7:05so steep and therefore an opportunity
7:07for us until about February of next
7:09year , between December and February of
7:11next year . The graph I'm showing you
7:13now are the projections of the EIA , the
7:15largest organization in the world with
7:17the most data . The EIA's forecasts are
7:20that by the end of this year , so Q4
7:222026 of the blue line , the hypothetical
7:24price per barrel of oil for the end of
7:27the year is between $ 80 and $ 100 per
7:29barrel . Exactly , if you look more or
7:32less at it , it's around 90-92 per
7:34barrel . And here we're talking about
7:35brands . Brands today What is the mark
7:38today ? It's 96.07 . Today we are at 96.
7:42What are the expectations of the E , as
7:44the situation today , is around $ 92 ; so
7:47it falls perfectly within that four , in
7:49that $ 4 of the downside hypothesis
7:51that I explained to you earlier . But
7:54this is until the end of the year ,
7:55another 3 months have to pass , eh , by
7:56the end of the year , so you get 4 % for 3
7:58months in a row . Okay , that's all very
8:01well , but are we really sure that going
8:03long is the right choice ? Let us
8:05examine what the data actually says and
8:07the reasons why oil has risen by such
8:09an amount . We went from $ 67 a barrel a
8:12year ago to 101 on September 21 , 2026 ,
8:15so a substantial increase of 52 % , plus
8:1810 % in the last month alone , so 1/5 of
8:20the world's oil obviously passes
8:23through the state of Ormut .
8:26Unfortunately , this is not the only
8:28problem with the strait . In fact , the
8:30International Energy Agency , The Energy
8:34Information Administration , a
8:35quasi-governmental body that functions
8:37on a global level , assists us with its
8:39monthly reports to understand oil
8:41output and input ; it also forecasts
8:43that , by roughly the end of the year ,
8:44we will see a price per barrel of
8:46approximately one hundred dollars , or
8:48more specifically , a range between
8:50ninety and one hundred dollars . Does
8:51that make sense to you ? So the price of
8:53today could be quite similar to that
8:54which we will see over the course of
8:56the next three months . Let's start from
8:58this assumption . Since February , oil
9:01inventories have fallen by 507 million
9:03barrels and before that , some very bad
9:06things happened , unfortunately . In fact
9:10, we're talking about about 10 million
9:12more barrels per day of production in
9:14the Gulf , still at a standstill and
9:16have been at a standstill for months
9:18and with 100 million barrels of oil
9:19consumed per day . You understand that a
9:22tenth of barrels have practically gone
9:24to that country , they're gone . If
9:26demand remains the same with a
9:28decreasing supply , we won't be able to
9:30have the Same supply compared to demand
9:33. Thirteen million barrels were
9:35exported from the Gulf in August , which
9:37is almost half the normal amount ,
9:39because in theory around 25 to 26
9:40million should be exported during
9:42August , meaning that those famous 10
9:44million barrels missing from the total
9:46are also reappearing on a monthly basis
9:47. World stocks are in trouble . We are
9:50talking about 500 million more barrels
9:53consumed compared to February , compared
9:55to the strategic stocks of the various
9:57countries worldwide . The United States
9:59had declared between February and March
10:01of this year that it was drawing on
10:03strategic reserves . Japan has done the
10:04same thing , Europe has done the same
10:05thing , and Asia has done the same thing
10:06. So the price we see today is high ,
10:09yet it is paradoxically low , because
10:10fortunately those famous 10 million
10:12barrels of oil per day that we no
10:13longer see are being mitigated and
10:15rebalanced through the use of strategic
10:16reserves that have been put in place to
10:18offset the current market supply .
10:21Fortunately , in August alone they
10:23decreased by 95 million , which is the
10:25fastest pace ever recorded in history .
10:28Today we are well on the right track .
10:29Worse , we are in a much , much worse
10:31situation than perhaps during the world
10:33wars , just to give you an idea of what
10:35we are experiencing today . This is just
10:37one example of US strategic stockpiles .
10:40They have gone from 426 million to 285
10:45million , which is a minimum since 1982 ,
10:47so we have to go back in time over 40
10:48years to see a situation like this and
10:50obviously we are talking about years
10:52that are very different from the
10:53current one . The data that we are
10:56receiving from OPEC Plus , but also from
10:58Saudi Arabia , are not encouraging ,
11:00unfortunately they are not optimistic
11:02because despite the increase in
11:03production by OPEC Plus , just under
11:05200,000 barrels per day more , so we are
11:07really talking about nothing . One of
11:09the most important oil pipelines in the
11:12Red Sea has been damaged . We are
11:14talking about a transit of about 4.5
11:16million barrels per day which , look at
11:18the coincidence , of course perhaps it
11:20is not a coincidence , are no longer
11:22reaching Europe and in fact , a few days
11:23ago , Saudi Arabia reported officially
11:25closed the taps for Europe for the
11:27month of October . The famous 4-5
11:30million barrels per day that we receive
11:32from Saudi Arabia in Europe will not
11:34officially arrive in October . Why won't
11:36they arrive ? Because obviously it is
11:38much more complicated for Saudi Arabia
11:40to get them to Europe because the costs
11:42are rising and therefore it prefers to
11:43sell them to Russia , Kazakhstan ,
11:45perhaps even China , etc. etc. So the
11:46problem we are talking about today is
11:48obviously a much , much more European
11:50problem than a global one . If oil
11:53prices rise and , obviously , this oil
11:55has to be transported from one side of
11:56the globe to the other and if the
11:58Strait of Ormuz is closed , other routes
11:59, other stages will need to be taken .
12:03It has been estimated that the cost of
12:05transporting a traditional tanker , from
12:08$ 45,000 for each tanker , has even
12:10reached the record figure of $
12:11800,000,000 for each tanker that has to
12:14go from point A to point B and ,
12:16unfortunately , cannot cross the Strait
12:18of Ormuz ; perhaps it will have to make
12:20a trip around Africa . I even read that
12:24in China they are starting to make
12:25trips around the North Pole , so these
12:27trips are much , much more inefficient
12:29than the previous one . So we have an
12:33estimated cost of about $ 1.5 per
12:35barrel more than the normal one a few
12:37months ago . We have three extra weeks
12:41of travel , which means we are facing
12:43roughly 100,000,000 more in expenses
12:44per day on average , and these are the
12:46forecasts for 2026 , because currently
12:48the price is still low compared to what
12:50the estimates are for 2027.
12:51Consequently , the real problem is
12:52perhaps not so much related to
12:54production ; it is actually the cost of
12:56transport that is the core issue
12:57because of the current situation .
13:00Because the time that these ships take
13:02is obviously much longer than it was
13:04before , and they are obviously
13:05consuming much more fuel as a result ;
13:07and so the paradox is that , in order to
13:09make a longer trip , you consume more
13:10fuel and therefore you also buy more
13:12and you also contribute to increasing
13:14the price of oil . But what is the real
13:16problem ? And this is , in my opinion ,
13:18where the crux of the matter lies . The
13:20problem is called Diesel . Diesel is
13:22what is derived , or what we commonly
13:24call diesel , perhaps specifically in
13:26Italy , which results not merely from
13:28the extraction , but from the actual
13:29refining process of raw crude oil .
13:32Refining is a much more serious problem
13:34than production . In fact , it has been
13:37estimated that the costs and the
13:38differences between the cost of crude
13:40oil per barrel and the cost of the
13:42final refined products are around
13:44double the price per barrel . This
13:47translates , above all , into a shortage
13:49of diesel fuel that is unprecedented in
13:51history . We are talking about the fact
13:54that while we produce around 100
13:56million barrels of crude oil per day ,
13:59on the other hand , 80 million barrels
14:01are converted and refined . There is a
14:04shortage of 20 % of barrels . This 20 % is
14:06the actual cost that we are paying at
14:08the gas pump today . Why ? Because
14:10obviously there are those who take
14:11advantage of this and are greatly
14:12increasing the prices of refining . Why ?
14:14Because the real problem is not the
14:16same as Ormutz , it is not the routes .
14:18The real problem is that they have been
14:20destroyed . and the largest and most
14:22important refineries in the Middle East
14:24, but not only in the Middle East , have
14:26been tampered with . We might see a
14:27decline in the price of oil , but that
14:29does not necessarily mean a drop in the
14:30prices of gasoline and other refined
14:32products . And that , in my opinion , is
14:34the most important paradox that the
14:35market has not yet discounted .
14:36Obviously , there are three causes : the
14:38Gulf issue , refineries damaged within
14:40Russia itself , and also in the Middle
14:42East , the closures I mentioned
14:44regarding the transit of oil pipelines
14:46coming from Asia , and from Saudi Arabia
14:48, as they move towards Europe . So be
14:50careful because , among other things ,
14:52even in America 97 % of refineries are
14:54already at full production at 100 % , so
14:56in America we can't do anything more
14:58than what we are doing today . This is
15:01the average cost in Italy for diesel ,
15:02for gasoline it is something
15:04exceptionally absurd on the rise and on
15:05top of that , among other things , there
15:07are also excise duties . Without excise
15:10duties we are talking about an average
15:12of 2.40 and on the highway in Italy we
15:15have reached figures around 260-270
15:17with the excise duty cut . Probably on
15:19the highway without the excise duty cut
15:21we would have reached around € 3 per
15:23liter . Really crazy stuff .