Full transcript
Why Learning The Language Of Price Changes Your Trading
0:00If you truly want to master trading and
0:03make life-changing amounts of money,
0:05there is one thing that you need to do,
0:07and that is understand why price moves
0:10the way it does. You see, price is a
0:13language. It's a completely new
0:14language. It's a foreign language, and
0:16the only way that you will be able to
0:17master it is if you can learn to read
0:19it. And so, that's exactly what I want
0:20to share with you. Look, I've been
0:21trading now for over six years. I've
0:24made over seven figures directly from
0:26trading. And that is all because I
0:28learned how to read the language that
0:30the market was telling me. So now every
0:31time I look at a chart, it literally
0:33speaks to me. I actually understand what
0:35is happening. And if you can truly
0:37understand what the market is telling
0:38you, then well, of course, your
0:40decision-m process is so much simpler.
0:43There's no more randomness. There's no
0:44[music] more inconsistency. There is
0:46just action upon the information that
0:47you're receiving. And that's what I want
0:48this to be for you. And so again, this
0:50is a 5 and a half hour master class
0:52breaking down every single [music]
0:53trading concept that you truly need to
0:56understand the language. Each part of
0:58this course is purposefully designed to
1:00teach you part of the language that the
1:02market is telling you. By the end of
1:03this course, you will literally have
1:05every concept that you could possibly
1:06need to actually understand price. I'm
1:09talking everything on market structure,
1:12liquidity, supply and demand, order
1:14blocks, fair value gaps, daily bias, and
1:16there are a couple more bonuses inside
1:19small details [music] and concepts that
1:21have truly helped me and transformed my
1:22trading. And on top of all of that, at
1:24the end of the video, I'm going to
1:25combine everything that you have learned
1:27into a detailed stepbystep trading
1:29strategy with a trading plan and live
1:32trading examples of this plan in action.
1:34And so, please, this is by far the most
1:37valuable video that has ever been
1:39produced on this YouTube channel. So,
1:40take it seriously. This is not for
1:42entertainment purposes. Get a notepad,
1:43[music] get a pen, take notes, and
Market Structure
1:46please enjoy.
1:50Market structure is by far the most
1:52powerful technical analysis concept that
1:55you can use if you want to become a
1:56profitable trader. And yet, it's so easy
1:59to get it wrong. And honestly, that's
2:01why most traders fail. You see, as a
2:03trader, the most important thing that
2:05you need to understand [music] is which
2:07direction is the market likely to trade.
2:09If you can get that right, you
2:11drastically [music]
2:12minimize the chances of you losing
2:14trades and drastically maximize the
2:16chances of you winning trades. So,
2:18diving straight in, there are three
2:20phases in which the market is always
2:22trading through. On the one hand, we
2:24have the bullish expansion. This is
2:26where price is progressively getting
2:29higher, making a series of highs, higher
2:32highs, lows, and higher lows. A higher
2:35high is simply when a high breaks an old
2:39high. That is your direct indication
2:41that price action is bullish. Price is
2:43more likely to trade higher in the
2:45future than it is to trade lower.
2:47Already you have a statistical edge. And
2:49again, the same thing is when these lows
2:51are getting higher than the previous
2:53lows, right? That is again signs of
2:55bullish price action. Now eventually
2:56what happens in every trend is it gets
2:59exhausted and the first sign of a
3:01reversal is usually a consolidation. A
3:04consolidation is where we have a high
3:07and a low that is in control of the
3:09price action. Right? That is your
3:11current market structure range. Now what
3:13price does is it usually spends a decent
3:16portion of time just kind of moving
3:18sideways below the high but above the
3:21low. So not really giving us any clear
3:23direction. Is price going to continue
3:25trading higher? Is price going to trade
3:26lower? That sideways consolidation is
3:29usually the first sign of the next leg
3:32up or in many cases a bearish
3:34correction. Then usually we have what
3:37follows is bearish expansion. And the
3:40bearish expansion can be categorized by
3:42understanding when the bullish structure
3:45has shifted. It is not which many people
3:47make the mistake of when these lows in
3:50here start trading lower. It is when
3:52this low right here that is responsible
3:55for breaking the previous high and
3:57putting in this high right here gets
3:59broken and traded through. That is what
4:01we call a change of character. The shift
4:04from bullish to bearish, right? Think of
4:07the bull is in control and then the bear
4:09becomes in control of the two
4:11characters. We change character, right?
4:13And then we begin with the bearish
4:15expansion. So we put in a lower low.
4:17This low right here is lower than the
4:20previous low indicating bearish price
4:22action. Then we have a lower high. This
4:24high is lower than the previous high.
4:26And then we get the continuation break
4:28of structure. Lower low, lower high and
4:31lower low. From here, what you're
4:32expecting then is very simple. And your
4:34only job as a trader is to understand
4:36that price is now bearish. Therefore,
4:39how can I look at shorting? Right? And
4:41those are the things that we'll get into
4:42later in the video. What you're
4:43essentially expecting is when price
4:45retraces back up to these highs, I want
4:47to find an opportunity to get involved
4:49in short positions and then I can take
4:51the market down here. And so that is in
4:55essence the three phases of price action
4:57that we will continuously see play out.
4:59Now if we come here to the actual live
5:01market, you'll see this unfold in real
5:04time. What you can see here on Euro
5:06Dollar 30-minut time frame is that we
5:07have bullish price action. So we have a
5:09swing low down here that price puts in a
5:11high up in here. This high puts in a low
5:15down here. Right? Notice that this low
5:17is higher than the previous low. Then we
5:19have a break of structure with a higher
5:22high. Right? So now we have highs
5:24getting higher, lows getting higher.
5:26Then you can see we have this pullback
5:29before a continuation. We continue
5:31trading in this bullish direction. Then
5:33we have a pullback again. What do you
5:35think is your job at this point in time?
5:37We have this low. We have this high. Our
5:39structural range is this high to this
5:41low. You're looking to long the market.
5:44And so when price starts coming its way
5:45back down here, the goal is to get
5:47involved in this bullish move and take
5:49out this old high. Once this happens,
5:51you have a new low, right? And then a
5:54new high. Now look what happens. We've
5:57had a very aggressively long bullish
6:00trend. And then eventually what happens
6:01is we put in a high right here, right?
6:05And we have our low down here.
6:07So that is our current structural range.
6:11Now what happens is price starts to move
6:13sideways, right? We don't really get a
6:15real break of a high, a real break of a
6:16low. In fact, what you see here is that
6:19we get this wick, right? And for me, a
6:21wick is not a break of structure. That
6:23is what we refer to as a liquidation.
6:24You see, every time that you have a low
6:27and every time you have a high, when
6:30price approaches this level and it wicks
6:32above that level, you can likely expect
6:35that price will then reject that area
6:37and trade in the opposite direction. And
6:39the reason for that is purely based off
6:42of the order flow. Price gets above this
6:44high and then the thing is is no one is
6:46willing to now buy more orders above
6:48this high. And so that's why we have the
6:50wick, right? And price closes back down
6:52here. And that essentially tells you
6:54with just that wick that price is not
6:56willing to trade higher. And because of
6:58that, you can already indicate weaker
7:00price action. So if I know that a wick
7:02is a sign of weakness as it expands out
7:04of a range, then why would I want to buy
7:07out of that range? It's going to likely
7:09go in the opposite direction. The same
7:10is true on the sell side, right? You can
7:12see we get the wick and then we have a
7:14reversal. Right? If we then look at the
7:15low down here, ultimately what happens?
7:18We fail to break through this low. We
7:21wick the low. That to me is a sign of
7:23weakness, right? It's a sign of
7:24reversal. And then you can see we end up
7:26reversing and we come back up here. So
7:28we can see here we're getting wicks of
7:30the high and wick of the low, which is
7:32really just indecisive price action.
7:34This is a consolidation phase. And the
7:36likelihood is in many cases when we get
7:37this type of consolidation is that a
7:39reversal is most likely coming because
7:42price is unable to keep trading higher.
7:44The reality is is if market structure is
7:46continuing to go bullish, there would be
7:47no problem trading through this high and
7:49continuing like we have done many times
7:52in the past. We trade above, we
7:53continue, we trade above, we continue
7:55here. We try to trade above and we get a
7:57rejection. That simply tells us that the
7:59likelihood is is that we're going to
8:00reverse. Again, if you look at this
8:02liquidity concept, you can see all the
8:04time when you have a higher low that
8:06gets liquidated. Right? Here we have a
8:07low. Look what happens. Price comes into
8:09that low, it wicks below that low and
8:12reverses. Price comes into the high, it
8:15wicks that high and then it reverses.
8:17Even down to the minute micro details,
8:20right? We have a high here. Price comes
8:22up to this high, wicks up that high and
8:25then reverses. So, always pay attention
8:27to when price is wicking a low or
8:29wicking a high and look at that as a
8:31sign of reversal. Only when we can close
8:34below this low down here can I then say
8:38great, now we have shifted. We are no
8:40longer bullish. We are bearish.
8:41expecting lower prices and we can see
8:44how that unfolds, right? We become
8:46bearish, price trades aggressively to
8:48the sell side until we find a low, we
8:51have a retracement, we find a high, we
8:53have a continuation, we find a low, we
8:56come back up, we find a high, and then
8:58we continue trading down here. Low,
9:00high,
9:02low, high, and then this brings us to
9:04right now's current day price action. I
9:06would expect that today is most likely
9:08going to trade lower. It already gives
9:09me my indication. That is the importance
9:12of market structure, right? It's going
9:14to tell you the directional bias. But
9:16here's the catch. Now, I've made that
9:18sound simple and look simple because in
9:20all honesty, it is. But there are a
9:21couple of things that are messing people
9:23up and this is one of them. It's this
9:25idea that there is a real market
9:28structure and it looks like this. And it
9:30confuses the crap out of people. What we
9:32have is a high, we have a low, which is
9:37what you've been taught. We have a
9:38higher high. Amazing. very easy to
9:40understand, right? It's what you've been
9:41taught. But then it starts getting
9:43complicated because you start having
9:44pullbacks that look like this. And now
9:47what a lot of people do is they look at
9:48this and they're like, "Okay, we have a
9:49low. We have, okay, this high is lower
9:51than the previous high. Okay, we have a
9:53lower low down here. A lower high. Okay,
9:56we're obviously bearish, so let's sell
9:58the market." And so what do they do?
9:59They start selling the market down here,
10:01not realizing that they're looking at
10:03the wrong structural points. The
10:05critical mistake that traders are making
10:07when it comes to market structure is
10:09they don't understand which structure,
10:11which highs, which lows to use. And
10:12that's what I'm going to break down to
10:13you now. You see, this is the low that
10:16breaks through the high. This is the
10:18high that begins the reversal. So,
10:19that's all you need to have. You have
10:21your swing low and you have your swing
10:23high. We've broke structure. So, we are
10:26bullish. Now, until price breaks below
10:28this low, we do not shift bearish. We
10:31only look for longs. The problem is is
10:33many traders are thinking that price is
10:35bearish because of these lows, but
10:36they're reading the wrong market
10:38structure. They are reading internal
10:40structure. You need to be focused on
10:42these swing points in here. You can only
10:45get the green flag to go long and
10:47continue when you get, okay, we're
10:49bearish internal. Great. Now we're
10:52bullish internal. Now it's the time to
10:55look for longs. And then you can see
10:56price breaks structure. So now we break
10:59structure here toward the buy side. Now
11:01here's the other kicker. This is now our
11:03swing low. This up here is our swing
11:06high. And so we're expecting longs.
11:08We're expecting that price will respect
11:10this low and it will target this high.
11:12Again, here's another fatal mistake that
11:14traders make is they look at this.
11:15They're like, "Okay, we have a low.
11:17Okay, we have a higher high. Great.
11:18Bullish. Okay, higher low, higher high.
11:21Okay, so here's my low. Here's my high.
11:24Oh, look, we break through this low.
11:26Okay, now I'm going to look for sells
11:27cuz we're bearish." Wrong. until we
11:30break this low. It is the low the lowest
11:33point that structure comes before
11:35breaking structure again. It's this low
11:38right here. Many traders are getting
11:39trapped on the wrong side of the market.
11:41That's why there's so many failing
11:42traders cuz they don't understand how to
11:44read market structure. You have to use
11:46this low and this high. So when this low
11:48gets taken out, that for me is like
11:50great. That's an inducement, right?
11:52Because so many traders are now going to
11:53be looking to go the other side. But for
11:55me, I'm still very much bullish. And so
11:58when I get this shift above here, that's
12:00my green light. And then I patiently
12:02wait for price to come back in. And then
12:03where do you think that price is likely
12:04to go to next? The next logical target
12:07is for price to run toward this high.
12:09That is real market structure. It looks
12:11confusing, but it's very simple. It's
12:13not really much difference what we just
12:15covered in here. We have these
12:16pullbacks. It's just that inside of
12:17these pullbacks, there are little
12:18pullbacks that get you confused. Let's
12:20go and take a look at what this looks
12:22like in the actual market. So imagine
12:24for a second that we have a low down
12:26here. We have a high here, a low here,
12:29higher high. So, we're bullish, right?
12:31Let's just say we're bullish. Now,
12:34here's the thing that throws people off.
12:36For me, it goes like this low here.
12:38Here's what people think. People use
12:40this high and then this low and then
12:42this high and then when price puts in
12:44this low down here, they're like, "Okay,
12:45great. We've shifted bearish. Let me
12:47look at shorting." It's like, no, it's
12:49not this here. It has to have at least
12:51three candles that pull back. So, it's
12:53high, low, higher, high, higher, low.
12:56Right? Again, same thing. People look at
12:58this, they're like, "Okay, oh, low. Oh,
13:00high. Oh, new low. Okay, bearish." It's
13:03like, no, this is the low.
13:06This is the high. If it's above this
13:09low, it's bullish. Don't use anything
13:11else. Everything else is internal. It's
13:13like all these traders are looking at
13:14these structural points, trying to use
13:16these and these, and it's like, no, none
13:19of that is structure. It's just noise
13:21for you to get distracted in. If it's
13:23above this low, it's bullish. Until it
13:25breaks above this high, this is a low in
13:27control. And then for me, it's higher
13:29high. But again, many people are looking
13:31at this like the, oh, new high. Oh, new
13:33low. Oh, new high. It's like, no. It's
13:35like when we break this high, this is
13:37the low. So now the structure is like
13:39this from this low to this high. And
13:43then we break structure. You can see
13:45that we're respecting our structural
13:46levels. Then what happens? Price comes
13:48back. We put in a low. We go again. We
13:50find a high and then we have high to low
13:52and price cannot break out of this
13:54level. We wick that doesn't count. We
13:56wick that doesn't count. When we break
13:59and close, that's good. So now we go to
14:01bearish. And so again, my structure
14:03becomes low, high, low, high,
14:10low, high, low, possible high. We don't
14:14know until it breaks it. What do many
14:15other traders look at? Many other
14:16traders are looking at it like this.
14:19Okay. Low, high, low, high, low, high.
14:24It's like you're just going to confuse
14:25yourself. That's exactly why you get
14:26stuck because you're using all of these
14:29rubbish terms for market structure. No,
14:31that none of that is market structure.
14:33This is market structure. It's the
14:35external swing points. Forget the
14:37internal. The most important part of
14:38trading is being on the right side of
14:40the market. And yet, you're getting
14:42caught on the wrong side of the market
14:43because you're not doing this. You're
14:45using all of these internal structural
14:47points. Just don't do it. Let me
Free Gift For You
14:48interrupt you just for one second. Just
14:51before we move on to the next idea, I
14:52want to share something with you that
14:54will make your trading a hundred times
14:56easier and simpler. And yes, I truly do
14:58mean that. Over the past few years,
15:00you've probably come to know me as
15:01someone who is very big on market
15:03structure. You're watching right now a
15:05market [music] structure breakdown. Now,
15:06one of the biggest issues that I have
15:08seen traders face time and time again,
15:10which they keep coming to me with, is
15:11this is great. Market structure is
15:13incredible, but how do I know how to
15:14accurately draw a high? How to
15:16accurately draw a low? How do I know
15:17what's an actual breaker structure
15:19versus what I think is a breaker
15:20structure? But really, it's [music] not.
15:22Basically, how do I actually have rules
15:24in place that make market structure
15:27completely accurate [music] and I've
15:29actually gone and created an entire
15:30solution for this and I just want to
15:32quickly show you just for a second. So,
15:33here we are. Euro dollar. This is
15:35ultimately what price [music] looks
15:36like. And you can see in the top left
15:37here we have an indicator. And if I just
15:39literally toggle this indicator, it will
15:41give me all of the highs and lows, the
15:44real highs and lows with the real
15:45changes of characters and breaks of
15:47structures [music]
15:48that completely tell me what the
15:50direction of price is, what the market
15:51structure actually, as you can see here,
15:53it gives a little symbol up in here to
15:55tell us what the structure is. And so
15:56you can see if you're looking at this
15:57price, for example, price looks to be
15:59bullish, right? Who in the right mind
16:01would know that this little area in here
16:03is a pullback. If you didn't, you'd
16:04probably trying to buy all of this price
16:06leg. But no, this indicator will show
16:07you we literally have a change of
16:10character and then a break of structure,
16:12a break of structure and we continue
16:13bearish all the way down here and we
16:15knew about it way ahead of time and then
16:17actually we've just recently shifted
16:19bullish and it has the external
16:21structure and all of the internal
16:22structure as well. And you can see we
16:24shift bullish and price [music] begins
16:26to trade higher and higher. And so we've
16:28literally created a completely
16:30rule-based indicator that you can use
16:32that will make your market structure and
16:34your trading hundred times easier. Feel
16:37free to check it out. I'll leave the
16:38link in the description. It'll give you
16:39everything you need to know about the
16:40indicator and how it actually works.
16:42Enjoy the rest of the video. The next
16:44super important point that I need to
16:46make is that you have to combine
16:48structure with supply and demand. Market
16:50structure alone won't work. Fibonaccies,
16:52it's not going to work. You need to use
16:54supply and demand. So what is supply and
16:56demand and how do you combine it with
16:57structure? So you can see here that we
16:59have a low, a high, we make a new low
17:04and then we make a new high. Now notice
17:06in here we have this area of price where
17:09price has a lot of volume before an
17:11aggressive move. Price comes back up, we
17:13have another aggressive move. We want to
17:15look at these areas of demand, right?
17:18What is demand? Demand is, you know, a
17:20group of people or one institution
17:22flocking to buy a lot of something at
17:24one price. Therefore, it moves higher.
17:26Simple supply and demand and economics.
17:28If there is more demand than there is
17:31supply for that thing, the price will
17:32increase. So, just look at where you
17:34have sharp aggressive price increases.
17:37There you will find demand. And so, what
17:39you want to be looking at is when you
17:40have these large impulsive legs, look at
17:43the volume that took place just before
17:45that impulsive move. There you will find
17:46your demand. The same can be true for
17:48supply. If you look at supply, you just
17:50want to find the areas of price that we
17:52were trading at before we have the
17:53aggressive move. And there you will find
17:55supply and you'll see interactions with
17:57that and then demand comes in. Right? So
17:59what you need to do is when you see
18:01market structure you need to then
18:04identify areas of supply and demand. And
18:05now I'll show you what that actually
18:07looks like. So if we come back into this
18:08same price action and we apply the same
18:10principles here's what we'll find.
18:12Remember we have our market structure as
18:14high low
18:17right to high to low to high low high
18:23low high. Now you need to apply supply
18:25and demand. So for example here we have
18:27a bullish move in here. Now where's the
18:31bulk of the volume before that happens?
18:33It's in here. So there's your demand.
18:35You want to wait for price to come back
18:36into the demand before you can long.
18:38Here we don't have price come back into
18:40the demand. Okay fine. Then we see price
18:42pull back and then aggressive run up.
18:44Where's the bulk of the volume happen
18:46before that happens? It's in here,
18:48right? This is the area where we have
18:50the transactions and then price
18:51aggressively moves. So there's your
18:53demand. So after you get the run of that
18:55high, you wait for price to come back to
18:57your demand. Here's a critical mistake
19:00that a lot of traders make as well is
19:01when they're trading market structure,
19:03they think, "Okay, cool. Let's say
19:04that's my high. Then I should just buy
19:06when price breaks above it." So they buy
19:08here and maybe they put their stop loss
19:10below here. The problem with this is
19:12like number one, your risk-to-reward is
19:14low and number two is like where do you
19:16target? You don't have an area of price
19:18where you now expect that price should
19:20trade towards. You don't. You're just
19:22guessing. And so maybe you're going for
19:24let's say a 1 to three riskreward and
19:26price comes back up here and now all of
19:28a sudden you move your stop loss to
19:29break even and price comes out at break
19:30even and then it goes in your direction,
19:32right? Or maybe you go for a oneto one
19:34and great you make it. But how many of
19:35those trades are you going to make? So
19:36the problem with those traders is they
19:38they're buying too early. You don't want
19:39to be the first one to the party. It's
19:40like a game of poker. With trading, you
19:43have the ability to wait for the market
19:45to show you its hand, then you can bet
19:48chips. That is the game of trading. You
19:50see, trading is very similar in nature
19:53to gambling. But there are gamblers out
19:55there, professional poker players, who
19:57make millions and millions of dollars
19:59because they understand probabilities
20:01and they understand psychology. Well,
20:02the market is not too different. It's
20:04probabilities and psychology. The bonus
20:06with trading is you can wait for the
20:09market to show you its hand, right?
20:11Sometimes it may bluff you, but a lot of
20:13the times it will show you what it's
20:14going to do before it does it. And then
20:16you can decide whether or not you're
20:17going to take that bet. I mean, imagine
20:19for a second you were playing a game of
20:20poker, me and you, right now, and let's
20:22say I bet $1,000. And before you decide
20:25whether you want to match that bet, you
20:27get to see what cards I have and what is
20:29on the table. And then you can decide,
20:31well, either I have a better hand than
20:33him or he has a better hand than me. If
20:34you have a better hand, you can bet your
20:36money. If you don't have a better hand,
20:37like no, fold. The market gives you the
20:39chance to do that. So that's what supply
20:41and demand and market structure
20:42combination is all about. It's you wait
20:44for the move and then you wait for price
20:46to come back into this area. So then
20:49then you can catch the long move in
20:51here. You don't have to enter the market
20:53early. And sometimes that may mean that
20:55you miss out on opportunities because
20:57price goes and it doesn't come back.
20:58That's fine. That's part of the game of
21:01trading. It's about an edge. So same
21:03thing happens again right now we have
21:05multiple areas where price increases.
21:08You have we have aggressive move in
21:09here. We have consolidation aggressive
21:11move consolidation aggressive move. So
21:12we have
21:14phase one of demand really and truly is
21:17this entire level in here right from the
21:19sell down here to the buy. What happens?
21:21We have aggressive move out. We come
21:23back into the demand and then we trade
21:25away. Then we have a new demand and that
21:27new demand is pretty much this range
21:29here. Right? This is the next level
21:31where we get consolidation and then
21:32large moves to the upside. That's
21:34demand. Price goes up, we consolidate,
21:36and then we go aggressively again to the
21:40upside. That's demand. Now, notice that
21:42price doesn't come back and tag us in
21:44here before it goes. That's fine. You're
21:45not going to get that every single time.
21:47Then what we have is the next phase. We
21:49have aggressive demand. So, what we have
21:51here is we have consolidation, a small
21:53aggressive move, which is demand in
21:55here, and then price comes into that
21:56demand, and then we have aggressive move
21:57again. Now the demand is where? From
22:00this area here to here. You could also
22:02in this instance use this entire leg of
22:05price, right? This is the consolidation
22:08and then you have the aggressive demand.
22:09And so it's like okay, you just wait for
22:11price to get back into that area where
22:13price moved from because this is the
22:16area where the buyer sets into the
22:19market and the market became imbalance.
22:21Market seeks equilibrium, right? Comes
22:23back into balance and then we get the
22:25next leg up. probabilities of market
22:27structure and that is essentially how
22:29you combine supply and demand. So it's
22:31very simple. The final principle that I
22:33want to share to you before we put this
22:34all together is confirmations. You see
22:37it's one thing having market structure.
22:38It's important. It's great. Alone it's
22:40not going to help you. Then you add
22:41supply and demand and now it becomes
22:43even more powerful but alone it doesn't
22:46help you. Imagine you have market
22:47structure with supply and demand plus
22:50confirmations. Now you have a cheat
22:52code. So what is confirmations and how
22:54does it look? Well, same thing applies,
22:56right? We have a low here, a high. We
22:59have a new low and a new higher high.
23:02So, the market is bullish. We have a
23:03breaker structure above the high is in
23:05here. Breakup structure. Great. We are
23:07bullish. We are looking for longs.
23:09Second thing that we do is we find our
23:11area of demand. So, here we have a very
23:13aggressive and bullish move up. But just
23:15before that happens, we have an area of
23:17consolidation where we may see
23:19institutions or certain individuals
23:20loading up on their positions where the
23:22demand really kicks in. Right? So this
23:24is our area of demand. Now here's the
23:26catch, right? Let's say that this in
23:28dark here is the 15minut time frame. And
23:32let's say in the dotted line here is the
23:341 minute time frame. What's going to
23:36happen is when you have price action
23:39like this on the 15 minute, when the 1
23:41minute comes back here, it's going to be
23:43bearish and it's going to look like
23:44this. Right? So on the 1 minute time
23:47frame, as price approaches your area of
23:50demand, you simply apply patience. When
23:52we get in here, you can see that we're
23:53bearish, right? Lower low, lower high,
23:55lower low, lower high, lower low,
23:58consolidation, lower high, lower low.
24:00Inside of our demand, you simply wait
24:03for this confirmation. When this high
24:06gets broken in here, now you have
24:10literally a cheat code because this is
24:12really what my model is, right? This is
24:14honestly one of my most powerful trading
24:16models. Now, you have confirmation on
24:17top of everything. So, we already know
24:20that probability indicates that we are
24:22going to trade into this high. We
24:23already know we're bullish. We already
24:25know that we're trading from an area of
24:26demand. Now, we've confirmed that we're
24:29going to trade higher because price is
24:30trading higher. We've confirmed that
24:32this demand area is valid because we're
24:34seeing demand come back in from that
24:36same level. Now, all you have to do is
24:37trade. And so, again, a big thing that
24:39traders do wrong is they try to trade
24:41like this 15-minut time frame, bullish,
24:44find a demand area and trade like that,
24:46right? one to two risk-reward or maybe
24:48sometimes what you'll find is that you
24:50have multiple areas of demand in the
24:52same price leg. Now what do you do when
24:54you wait for the lower time frame you
24:55have something different because now
24:57what I can do is I can use the same
24:59structure and I can use this same let's
25:01say area of demand on the 1 minute time
25:03frame or the 5m minute time frame and I
25:06can take this trade the same trade idea
25:09but different entry after confirmation.
25:12So now I have by adding this
25:13confirmation principle which so few
25:15people do I am increasing my
25:17risk-to-reward from 1 to two to 1 to 5
25:21and I'm further confirming the
25:24likelihood that I win this trade. So
25:25I've increased the likelihood that I'll
25:27win and I've increased how much I'm
25:28going to win just by adding this one
25:30principle and that is essentially it.
25:31And then you patiently wait for price to
25:33come back in and then take you away to
25:35your direction which is already mostly
25:37confirmed.
Liquidity
25:41You're struggling to understand
25:43liquidity because you want to become a
25:45consistently profitable trader and you
25:48know that liquidity could be the missing
25:51key between you and profitability. But
25:53up until now, you're lost and confused
25:55because everywhere online, everybody
25:58seems to make liquidity such a
26:00complicated idea. Well, stick with me
26:02because in this video, I'm going to
26:04simplify liquidity to a point where it's
26:06very easy to understand. In this video,
26:08we'll cover what is liquidity and why it
26:12works. Then, we're going to cover the
26:14most common types of liquidity and how
26:16to identify them. Then I'll walk you
26:18through the biggest mistake that I see
26:20traders make when it comes to liquidity
26:22and how you can avoid making that same
26:24mistake. Okay, concept number one and
26:27again very very simple concept is what
26:30is liquidity in trading? Right, you
26:31first and foremost have to understand
26:33what exactly it is that you mean by
26:36liquidity. So what do we mean by
26:38liquidity in trading? Simply put,
26:40liquidity just refers to money. When you
26:42want to identify areas of liquidity, you
26:45need to ask yourself where is the money?
26:47And money in the markets can only come
26:50in the form of three different ways. It
26:52can only come in the form of entries,
26:56stop- losses, or take profits. Every
26:58time you get an entry, you deploy
27:01liquidity into the market. Every time
27:03you hit your stop-loss, you deploy
27:05liquidity into the market. Every time
27:07you hit a takerit, you deploy liquidity
27:10into the market. and so does everybody
27:12else. So when asking yourself how to
27:15identify key areas of liquidity, what
27:18you really need to ask yourself is where
27:20is everybody's orders, where is
27:22everybody's take profits, and where is
27:24everybody's stop losses? And that is
27:26exactly what I'm going to show you. So
27:29this is a very simple diagram of
27:32understanding the most common liquidity
27:34concept, which is dumb money. Right?
27:37What you want to be thinking about is
27:39where is everybody's stop losses? Where
27:41is dumb money stop losses, right? Where
27:44are their orders? Where are their stop-
27:46losses? And if any of them are in
27:48profitable positions, where are people
27:50looking to take profits, right?
27:51Liquidity is actually a very
27:53psychological thing. You have to
27:55understand that groups of traders form
27:58collective biases based on trading
28:01ideas, ideologies, and strategies. So
28:04many different traders trade many
28:06different strategies collectively. So
28:08you can identify these strategies and
28:10begin understanding where all the
28:12liquidity is. If we know that liquidity
28:14equals money, stop losses, entries, take
28:16profits, we need to identify where are
28:18people putting their orders, where are
28:20people putting their stop losses, and
28:22where are people putting their take
28:23profits. And so here are some very
28:25simple ideas of how you would identify
28:27some liquidity. Then we'll go and take a
28:29look at what this looks like in the
28:30markets. So you can see here we say you
28:33know we have a um price leg push up pull
28:36back push up pull back right so you can
28:38quite clearly see that you know from our
28:40landscape smart money we're bullish
28:41right we can see we have bullish market
28:43structure but what we have is we have
28:47this trend line forming down here. So
28:51there are a lot of traders that are
28:52looking at this and they're seeing this
28:54trend line and again these are the trend
28:56line traders and many of these traders
28:59when they're looking at this market they
29:01have an ideology of wanting to go long.
29:04Their trading strategy indicate
29:06indicates to them that price is going to
29:08continue trading higher. So what do they
29:11do? Well, they're going to wait for one
29:13more touch of this trend line. They're
29:15going to try and you know probably enter
29:17into try to get the next touch. So we
29:19have one, we have two, we have push up.
29:21So maybe they have their entry somewhere
29:24in this region in here. Maybe they're
29:26looking at, you know, this old low down
29:29here as an area in which they could
29:30potentially look at putting their stop
29:32loss. And where do you think they're
29:33probably going to target? Well,
29:35psychology indicates that many traders
29:38use old highs, old lows for their
29:41take-profit placement and their
29:42stop-loss placement. Think about it.
29:44Think about you as yourself. Where do
29:46you place your stop losses? You place
29:49your stop losses at some sort of low
29:52which you think should be respected. You
29:54place your takeprofit at some sort of
29:56high you think should be disrespected.
29:58Well, all traders pretty much think very
30:01similarly. So, this is what the typical
30:04kind of trend line trader who would be
30:05looking at this would be looking at.
30:07Then you have the opposite side of the
30:09spectrum. you have a certain caliber of
30:11trader who are who's looking at this
30:13market and says, "Okay, well, we've been
30:15we've been trading high for a long
30:17amount of time now and we begin to
30:20reject this random key level, right?
30:22This random key level that they created
30:24from the past that has no relevance of
30:26current price action, but let's just say
30:28it means something." They they have
30:30these key areas mapped out. I see. Okay,
30:32price has rejected from this key area.
30:35And then price has pulled back into this
30:37same area and rejected it again. So that
30:40must mean that this is a key level. This
30:42is an area of resistance. This is a
30:44double top. This is an area that is
30:46protected. So I want to get involved. So
30:49they tried to get involved in some sort
30:51of short position, right? So they may
30:53put their, you know, their entries up at
30:55this level. when price comes back,
30:57they're probably going to put their stop
30:58losses at the highs up in this level.
31:01And then they're probably going to put
31:02their take profits, you know, anywhere
31:03kind of some old lows, um, wherever they
31:05may put their take profits. But then
31:07you're going to look have something that
31:08looks a little bit like this, right?
31:10You're going to have some traders who
31:11are looking to long because of this
31:13trend line. You've got some traders who
31:14are looking to short because of these,
31:16you know, relatively equal highs or this
31:18double top or this area of resistance,
31:20right? And then what else do you have?
31:22Well, maybe the market then gives you
31:24something like this. have a little bit
31:25of a reaction, right? And then what
31:28happens? What happens is a new caliber
31:31of trader also enters the market. A new
31:33area, a new trader enters the market and
31:35goes, "Oh, look, you know, we are we
31:38have this trend line. We're we're
31:39bullish. We have structure. They have an
31:41understanding of structure. We have some
31:43great structure. Amazing." Um, and now
31:45price has traded out of here. We've come
31:47back in. Now we're having a little bit
31:48of a reaction. So, what am I going to
31:50do? I'm going to long this reaction,
31:52right? So, then they're trying to get
31:53involved. And so we can literally just
31:55paste this again. Now we have another
31:57caliber of trader trying to get
31:58involved. Put in their stop loss where
32:00probably at this low entry somewhere
32:02around the same level take profit
32:05somewhere at this high. Right? That's
32:07another type of trader. Then again you
32:10may have more of the same trader. Let's
32:12say trend line traders, right? So you've
32:14got one touch, two touch, three touches.
32:17They're looking at getting involved and
32:18they're waiting for what? they're
32:21waiting for some sort of reaction from
32:23this trend line point and so when they
32:25begin getting this little reaction again
32:27that is when they may jump in the market
32:29and where they're going to put their
32:31stop losses in these similar areas right
32:33so what I'm kind of building the
32:35narrative for you is understanding that
32:38something as simple as two legs on a
32:41price leg can have so many different
32:43traders getting involved in the market
32:45for so many different reasons and it's
32:46your job to identify who those traders
32:49are what strategies they likely trade,
32:52where their entries likely are, and
32:54where their stop losses likely are. And
32:56it sounds difficult, but it's actually
32:59very simple. All I've gone through is a
33:00trend line trader, a resistance type
33:03trader, a double top, a double bottom, a
33:06trend line confirmation, right? Very,
33:07very simple level trading strategies
33:10that a lot of traders try to trade. And
33:13these types of things, these patterns
33:16that you see, they're set up
33:19intentionally. They're set up on purpose
33:22because smart money knows that the
33:24information that you're getting online,
33:26the information that your broker's
33:27feeding you, it's all retailbased
33:30concepts or dumb money based concepts.
33:32It's all pattern recognition. It's all
33:34there's no causation to the price
33:36movements. Everything is, you know,
33:38trying to identify something based on
33:40something that doesn't exist. And so it
33:43sees all of this liquidity that's
33:45building all these different trade type
33:46of traders that are trading these
33:48outdated styles of trading with all
33:50their stop- losses and their entries.
33:52And Smart Money knows this, right? And
33:54so we have all these different pockets
33:55of liquidity in just one random
33:58scenario. And so now what you have is
34:00you have, you know, a bunch of stop-
34:01losses in here. You have a bunch of
34:03takerit levels in here, right? You have
34:06a uh, you know, probably a bunch of
34:08take-profit levels in here from sellers.
34:10Then what else are you going to have?
34:12Well, any market movement that we get
34:14from here on out, now you've got the
34:16traders that are kind of waiting, right?
34:17The breakout traders or the break and
34:19retest traders. And what they'll be
34:21waiting for is some sort of direction.
34:23For example, if price continued trading
34:25higher and broke out of this high, so
34:28many traders would jump involved and
34:30start longing the market up in these
34:32regions. When it breaks out, they long.
34:34They may put their stop loss below this
34:35low. They may put their stop loss, you
34:38know, inside of some internal low inside
34:40of here, but basically they are going to
34:42be longing and they are going to be
34:43putting stop losses in these areas as
34:45well when it breaks. Right? Again, you
34:47have the same thing on the opposite
34:49side. When the market, let's say, has
34:51some sort of continuation and then it
34:54rejects from here and it takes out these
34:56lows. What you're going to be getting is
34:58you're going to be getting all the
35:00breakout traders that are trading this
35:02breakout and they're getting involved in
35:04the market here. their stop loss goes
35:06above these highs in here, right? Um
35:08their takerit goes, you know, down here.
35:11And then again, you have the the break
35:13and retest traders, right? Those are the
35:14ones that wait for the price to break,
35:16but then they wait for it to come back,
35:18right? And then they go to short. And
35:20it's the same thing. They have their
35:22entries in here, their stop losses up
35:24here, their take-profit levels down
35:26here. So you can see just in this one
35:28little schematic how many different
35:30traders would read the same piece of
35:33data and all come to different
35:35conclusions but primarily what we're
35:38seeing is they're all putting their
35:40money on their bias right they're
35:42putting their money in these levels now
35:45what I want to do is run you through the
35:48simple framework in which I use and is
35:51which you know what smart money concepts
35:53is about and how we would interpret this
35:56exact act same price action so much more
35:59simple just by understanding liquidity
36:03and understanding all the other types of
36:05traders and where their stop losses are
36:08and it goes something like this right
36:10first and foremost you have to
36:11understand you know why is that
36:14liquidity why before a very big move and
36:17this is something you've probably seen
36:19right you may have you may have been
36:21long before you had a bias to go long
36:24and you had your stop loss in here and
36:26then price just come into your stop loss
36:28before going in the direction that you
36:30wanted it to go. And you're probably sat
36:32asking why does that always happen to
36:34me? This is the reason. The reason is is
36:38because before smart money move the
36:40price aggressively in a certain
36:43direction, right? Which is their bias.
36:45That's their intention. It's their
36:47footprint. Before they do that, they
36:50will engineer liquidity on both sides of
36:53the market for this purpose. You see,
36:56smart money are very very big players.
36:59When they move, they move a large amount
37:01of money and the market is very simple
37:04marketplace. It is pretty much for every
37:07buy order, there needs to be an equal
37:10sell order on the other side. And so
37:12because smart money have so much money,
37:14let's say they wanted to, you know, buy
37:16Euro US dollar long-term, well, they
37:20would need to get their orders filled at
37:22the price they want to get their orders
37:24filled at. So let's say they want to get
37:25their orders filled at this level here
37:28and they want to buy here. They need an
37:30equal amount of sellers to be present at
37:33that level so that they can get their
37:36orders filled. So what they do is they
37:38create artificial dealing ranges, right?
37:42They'll push price in a certain
37:43direction to trick people into having an
37:47opinion, having a bias. Because when
37:49they have that bias, like we've just
37:51looked at all these different traders
37:52that are looking at this market, and
37:54lots of them have stop- losses here,
37:56entries here, take profits here. When
37:58they've been able to manipulate their
38:00thinking to put in their liquidity into
38:02the market, then they're able to use
38:05that liquidity to get a better average
38:08of their orders filled at the prices
38:11they want to get their orders filled at.
38:13Because if they wanted to buy and they
38:15first sold, they created these patterns.
38:19They created these little equal lows
38:21here. They had the little push up to
38:24make everybody, you know, ready to want
38:26to buy in here. And so they have their
38:28stop losses down here. And then anyone
38:30who sees it break now wants to sell,
38:32they do that so that then when when they
38:35move price into here into where they
38:37really want to buy from, right? Then all
38:40of these sell orders from the stop-
38:43losses of the buy orders from the
38:45sellers who are getting involved because
38:46they think prices go lower. They absorb
38:49all of that liquidity with their buy
38:52orders. Right? That is the game. So that
38:55is why they manipulate price. It's not
38:56just this kind of like conspiracy theory
38:58as why it works. No, there is literally
39:01the reasoning and justification behind
39:03why price does it. So how would we view
39:05the same market through the lens of
39:07smart money? Well, number one,
39:10directional bias. That's always number
39:12one. We need to understand what is the
39:14direction of the market. Because one
39:17thing that smart money can't hide is
39:18they can't hide their intention. They
39:20can't hide their footprints. Because the
39:23reality is is when they move the market,
39:25the market moves. You can't hide that.
39:28So if price is trending in a certain
39:30direction like you can see here, right?
39:31We have a swing low, swing high, higher
39:34low, higher high. When price is put in
39:36this structure, it's undeniable that the
39:40market is bullish and that it's going to
39:42have higher prices because that is their
39:44intention. It's undeniable. They've
39:46already shown us. They can't hide it.
39:49Right? So our directional bias is our
39:51first and foremost bias that we need to
39:53have. So in this scenario, you can see
39:54that we're bullish. So our directional
39:56bias is bullish. We are looking for long
39:58positions. But then when you see price
40:01begin to build these little internal
40:04ranges, what we see is we see trend line
40:07liquidity across these lows, right? So
40:11we can put liquidity across here. We see
40:13we have all this liquidity down here.
40:15Trend line liquidity. We have equal
40:17highs across the highs up in here. We
40:21have, you know, relatively equal lows in
40:24these areas in here, right? Liquidity.
40:27And then we have probably some sort of
40:29reaction in price that pushes more
40:32buyers into the market, stop losses
40:33under here. We identify all of this in
40:36the same lens that I've just shown you
40:38when we mapped out all of the dumb
40:41money. And then we identify okay where
40:44is the area in price where we can avoid
40:46all of that liquidity that includes
40:49taking out all of that liquidity and is
40:52below that area of price. We would
40:54identify an area of interest, right? An
40:56order block, an area of interest
40:59below areas of key liquidity and then we
41:03wait for everybody else to get stopped
41:05out or most people to get stopped out.
41:07And then when price gets into our area,
41:09we wait for some confirmation. And then
41:11we go long right into here. And then we
41:15wait for these guys to get manipulated.
41:17We wait for these guys with the stop
41:19losses here to get manipulated. And then
41:21we get in with the real move of smart
41:24money and we just target the next
41:27logical area of price. And that is
41:29literally what my smart money model
41:32looks like. And that's something that
41:33we'll get into in just a moment. So to
41:36recap, liquidity is money and money is
41:39stop- losses, orders, and take profits.
41:41You want to see where the liquidity is,
41:43get in the minds of dumb money. Where
41:45are they putting their orders? What
41:47trading strategies are they using? And
41:49once you can see that in the charts, the
41:51trend lines, the equal highs, the
41:52support, the resistance, right? Once you
41:55can see those patterns, then you can
41:57begin to ask yourself, where would those
41:59guys put their entries, their stop-
42:00losses, and the takeprofits? And those
42:02are the pockets of price you need to
42:04mark out as your liquidity because that
42:06is where there is resting money sitting
42:09and smart money like a shark is coming
42:12for those pools of liquidity. So why
42:15everyone gets liquidity wrong and what
42:17you need to do to make sure that you
42:19don't fall into this trap. The key is is
42:22they have no context. Right? So if we
42:26look at this diagram that we have right
42:27here, what we can see is we can see that
42:30you know we have equal lows down here,
42:33right? So this is an area of you know
42:35old level of support or equal lows. So
42:38we know that's liquidity. What do we
42:40have? We have trend line liquidity
42:42building,
42:44right? We have a lot of trend line
42:45liquidity building. So again, we know
42:47there is a lot of liquidity. And even if
42:49you zoom out, you can see on the bottom
42:51side of things, you can see actually
42:53this is one big trend line as well. So
42:55we have one big trend line. We have
42:57micro trend lines within it. We have
42:59equal lows. We have again this large
43:01trend line down here. And what else do
43:03we have? We have equal lows across here.
43:07Right? So more liquidity and we have
43:09equal highs across here. So more
43:12liquidity. So these are our pockets of
43:14liquidity is what I like to call them.
43:16These are the areas in which there is
43:17liquidity. But the issue that a lot of
43:20traders make and maybe you're making
43:21this yourself is you think that because
43:23you have these areas of liquidity mapped
43:26out that now you think you know where
43:28the market is going but you lack
43:30context. You think that just because
43:32there is liquidity in a certain area
43:34that that means price has to go there or
43:36price will go there and price will go
43:37there now and that's where many traders
43:40are wrong because what they'll try to do
43:42is they will try to trade solely based
43:45on understanding liquidity. They'll say,
43:46"Okay, I see that there are stop losses
43:48in here. Therefore, the market is going
43:49to trade there." When the reality is is
43:52you need context. Everything needs to be
43:55seen through the lens of context.
43:57Because here's how I would see it. If I
43:59look at this market right now, I would
44:01tell you step number one, always, always
44:04form your directional bias first like
44:07I've just explained to you. So, it would
44:09be step one, identify our key areas of
44:12structure where we trended, right? So,
44:14we have swing low, swing high, swing
44:17low, higher high, higher low, higher
44:19high, higher low, higher high. Great.
44:22We're bullish. Now, where is my most
44:25recent swing range? Right, I need to
44:27find the swing low to the swing high.
44:29So, where's my most recent? Well, my
44:31most recent swing low is here. And my
44:34most recent swing high is here. So, now
44:37I have my trading range. And this is the
44:39current present moment trading range
44:41that we're operating in. So, if we're
44:44bullish and my swing low is here, my
44:46swing high is here. As of right now,
44:49right, right this moment, none of this
44:52sellside liquidity is important, right?
44:55Ignore this because it's not in context.
44:58There's no reason for the price to go
45:00lower until it's shifted its structure.
45:03So, focus on market structure as your
45:06primary foundation. Market structure is
45:08like the building blocks of your trading
45:10strategy. Again, if you want more value
45:12from market structure, I have so many
45:14videos on the channel about it. But
45:16market structure is really your building
45:18blocks and you know with it we can see
45:20we have a swing low, we have a swing
45:22high. So that is our trading range.
45:24Inside of that box is our trading range.
45:26So I am now only interested in number
45:29one longing this market because market
45:32structure is bullish. Number two, which
45:35simply means now I have context. I'm
45:37only interested in the liquidity areas
45:41in inside of my price leg. So if my
45:44swing low is swing low to swing high,
45:48I'm not interested in any liquidity that
45:49is outside of that context. Right? So
45:52what am I interested in? I'm interested
45:53in these lows and I'm interested in
45:56these highs. And again, like I said,
45:58many traders will make the mistake.
45:59They'll think that because all of this
46:01liquidity is down here and here and this
46:03long trend line that they can short
46:05because price is going to go there. And
46:07you know what? Price probably will go
46:09there. But it's not about understanding
46:11where price will eventually go. It's
46:13about understanding and becoming
46:15profitable is about knowing where price
46:18is going to go now. Where is its next
46:21move? That is how you make money. You
46:23don't make money by knowing when it's
46:24going to go in some random future point
46:26in time because there's a random trend
46:28line there. because maybe it will go
46:30there but by the time it's gone there
46:32you've probably lost so much money that
46:33it doesn't even matter. So everything
46:36must to be understood through context
46:39and context is market structure. We have
46:42to understand that we are bullish. So
46:44until we have a change of character
46:46until price shifts bearish we don't care
46:48about the sellside liquidity that's at
46:49the bottom of the price leg. We'll cross
46:51that bridge if and when we come to it.
46:53Right now we want to focus on what is in
46:56our control. And in our control right
46:58now is understanding that price is
46:59probably going to trade higher short
47:01term. And we need to get involved in
47:03those long positions to make money
47:05today. So how do we do that? We identify
47:08the areas of liquidity. So we have equal
47:10highs. So we know there is a lot of
47:12stop- losses above here. We have equal
47:15lows. So there's a lot of stop losses
47:17below here. So what I would be doing and
47:19I would be framing is okay, I want to
47:20long the market. Awesome. I want to
47:24probably be buying in an area of
47:28discount. Okay, so down in these regions
47:30in here, I want to identify a point of
47:32interest, right? An order block, an area
47:34of interest. Again, many videos on order
47:36blocks and areas of interest. I want to
47:38identify key area liquidity, which is
47:41these lows, these highs. I want to
47:42identify my order block inside of my
47:45discount level. And then I want to
47:47patiently wait for price to sweep that
47:49liquidity into my point of interest.
47:52Then I want to get my entry model,
47:54right, which is my lower time frame
47:56confirmation. And then I want to buy
47:59using that. And again, what is it? It's
48:01the exact same model that we just looked
48:03at, right? We're waiting for the
48:06liquidity to be taken and then we're
48:08waiting for the liquidity to be
48:09targeted.
48:11So that is why everyone gets liquidity
48:13wrong because they lack context. And
48:15hopefully that gives you an
48:16understanding of how to incorporate
48:19context into your trading.
The Reason Liquidity Sweeps Keep Failing You
48:24Liquidity sweeps are the most powerful
48:26way to trade the market. [music] And yet
48:2899% of traders who try fail. The reason
48:32is because there are hundreds of [music]
48:34different liquidity sweeps that happen
48:36every day, but most of them don't work.
48:38It's only when you truly understand
48:40which one does that they become
48:41unstoppable. It took me years to figure
48:44out which ones work and why. And today
48:46I'm going to share that exact blueprint
48:49with you. Now, you hear people talk
48:51about liquidity and they make it out to
48:53be such a complicated process when in
48:55actuality it is super simple. Liquidity
48:58simply refers to money. When you're
49:01looking for liquidity, what you're
49:02looking for is money. And here's the
49:04truth. Liquidity is absolutely
49:06everywhere in the market. The thing is,
49:08it's just in some areas more than
49:10others. So, when we're looking at
49:12liquidity, we want to be looking at
49:13areas of large liquidity. Now, how does
49:16liquidity enter the market? Liquidity
49:18enters the market in one of three ways.
49:21The first way that liquidity enters the
49:23market is opening a position. So,
49:25anytime that you have a buy order open
49:28or a sell order open, whether it's a
49:30market execute, a buy stop or sell stop
49:32or a buy limit or sell limit, when that
49:35gets triggered into the market like
49:37this, at that moment in time, that is
49:40your injection of liquidity into the
49:42market. And so let's say you're buying
49:44for example or you're buying into the
49:46market which means you're putting your
49:47liquidity into the market. There is a
49:49counterparty on the other side of the
49:51market who's telling the opposite side
49:53of the trade. So if you're buying you
49:55know 10 lots on Euro dollar. There has
49:58to be someone on the other side of the
50:00market selling you those 10 lots. That
50:02is usually a market maker. That is their
50:05job. A market maker is there to provide
50:07liquidity to whoever needs it to make
50:09sure the order book is stacked so that
50:12anybody can get access to the market and
50:14they make their money off the difference
50:16between the bid and ask that is a market
50:18maker. So when you enter into a buy
50:20position that is you entering buyside
50:22liquidity into the market. The second
50:25area of liquidity that comes into the
50:27market is when you hit let's say a
50:29takerit. So when you hit a takerit,
50:32which is the area that you have agreed
50:33upon to close out of your trade in a
50:36profit, when you hit that takerit, that
50:38acts as sell liquidity. So you're buying
50:42your 10 lots worth of Euro dollar at
50:45this price, and you're selling back
50:48those same 10 lots to the market at a
50:50new price. And so at this point in time,
50:5310 lots of sellside liquidity come into
50:56the market. The third area that
50:59liquidity enters the market is when
51:01price hits your stop-loss. So, let's say
51:03you get triggered into a buy position.
51:05And for many of you, you may be
51:07experiencing more stop- losses than not.
51:09Every time that you hit a stop-loss like
51:11this, when price tags you out of that
51:14position, you are indeed selling your 10
51:17lots back to the market at a loss. So,
51:20you brought 10 lots here and you're
51:21selling the 10 lots back to someone else
51:23in the market at this price. and you net
51:27the negative difference. The same is
51:29true for a takeprofit. When you hit it,
51:31you're selling those same 10 lots at
51:34this area for a net positive dollar
51:37return. So that is the three different
51:39ways that liquidity enters the market.
51:40So that's liquidity. Liquidity is money
51:43and that money comes in either through
51:45entries, stop- losses or take profits.
51:48Now you have to ask yourself where is
51:51the most available liquidity. That is
51:54when you have to try to understand the
51:56other market participants because
51:58liquidity as we've said is orders and
52:00orders are placed by someone and there
52:03are commonalities in market participants
52:07behavior and so here are the most common
52:09areas of liquidity. So the most common
52:12is highs and lows. At any time you see
52:14an area of price like this where price
52:17is moving in this direction. Let's say
52:19price has a little bit of a pullback
52:22like this. The most common areas of
52:24liquidity at this moment in time are
52:27below this low and above this high. That
52:30is where the most liquidity is resting
52:33in the market. The reason behind that is
52:35because most market participants like to
52:39put their stop losses or their orders at
52:42highs and lows. Just the psychological
52:44element of safety. So buyers that are
52:47stepping into the market and expecting
52:49price to go higher when they enter the
52:51market the likelihood is is they ask
52:53themselves where should I place my stop
52:54loss and they are going to be looking to
52:56place their stop loss in a logical place
52:59which is usually below a low. Now
53:02sellers who are entering the market in
53:04here and they're entering sell positions
53:06in here they have the same question.
53:08Where should I be putting my stop loss?
53:11And then for most of them, they're going
53:13to answer the same thing in the most
53:15logical and safe position, which is
53:17usually above the high that they're
53:19selling from. Then you also have when
53:22these buyers are entering the market,
53:23they're putting their stop losses down
53:25here. Now, they have to set a takerit
53:27level. And that take-profit level again
53:29usually comes at a high. So, they're
53:31saying, "I'm buying here. If it hits
53:33this point, I'll exit the trade." So,
53:35there is again more liquidity at that
53:37high. So now you have takerprofit levels
53:40and stop-loss levels. And then the same
53:42for this low, you're having stop losses
53:44and anyone who's selling from this
53:46region, right? A lot of people are
53:49placing takerit levels in this area. So
53:52that is more liquidity. So you have stop
53:54losses and take profits at the low,
53:57stop- losses and take profits at the
53:58high. Then there's another form of
54:00liquidity that comes in at highs, and
54:03those are your breakout traders. So
54:05breakout traders are typically people
54:07who look at getting into the market
54:10based off of a break of a high or a
54:12break of a low. So let's say for example
54:14price move like this and price enters
54:16into this high there will become
54:19breakout traders. So at this level you
54:22will see people who put buy stops in
54:25place that says if price trades past
54:28this level I will get entered into my
54:31buy position because they're expecting
54:33that if price breaks its high the trend
54:35is likely to continue. And so now you
54:38have the takerits of the buyers who
54:41brought in here. You have the stop-
54:43losses of the sellers who sold in here.
54:45and you have the entries of the
54:48potential buyers that are going to buy
54:50on the breakout. And so you can see how
54:52all of this liquidity starts piling
54:55above this high. The same is true on the
54:57opposite side of the market. If price
54:58enters down into this area and here,
55:00there are going to be sellers waiting
55:03for this price point to break so that
55:05they can get involved in sells and try
55:07to trade with the trend. When we trade
55:10through this area, their sell positions
55:12will be entered into the market at this
55:14level. So now all of a sudden at this
55:16low and at this high you have down here
55:18you have stop losses you have take
55:22profit levels and you have entry levels.
55:25So you can see how there is a lot of
55:28liquidity that rests just on the
55:30dependence of this low. The same is true
55:32for this high stop losses take profits
55:34and entry points. So there is a
55:36considerable amount of liquidity resting
55:38at highs and resting at lows as opposed
55:41to less liquidity that may just sit
55:44inside of the price range. Inside of the
55:46price leg usually most of the liquidity
55:49is going to be in the form of entries.
55:51So people who are entering inside of the
55:54price leg as opposed to people who are
55:56looking to break out and place their
55:58stop losses or their take profits. And
56:00so that's why the most common form of
56:02liquidity is going to be your highs and
56:05lows. Another way to look at highs and
56:08lows as liquidity is equal highs or
56:10equal lows or support and resistance.
56:13Pretty much the same thing. When you get
56:15price moves like this one in here and
56:17then somewhat of a reaction to the
56:19downside. When you get something like
56:20this, what happens is another form of
56:22market participants join in and the load
56:25gets even larger because as this high
56:27gets respected and starts trading away
56:29from it. Well, now you have different
56:31characters entering the markets. You had
56:33the old sellers that had their stop
56:35losses. You're going to have the old
56:36buyers who place their breakout trades.
56:38You're going to have the other buyers
56:39who place their takeprofits. Now, you're
56:42also going to have new sellers who step
56:45into the market because their strategy
56:47is equal highs or their strategy is an
56:50area of resistance. An old high that has
56:52traded back into and had a reaction
56:55induces a lot of market participants to
56:57come and trade and participate in the
57:00market at that level. And guess what?
57:01They too are placing stop- losses above
57:04these highs. The same again, more
57:06breakout traders come because now this
57:08isn't just a single high, it's equal
57:10highs. It's an area of resistance. So if
57:13we break out of this level, more traders
57:15will come because the breakout now isn't
57:17just a high. It's an area of resistance
57:20that they will hope gets turned into an
57:22area of support or the equal highs being
57:25taken out is a stronger sign of bullish
57:28momentum which induces more bias. So you
57:30have equal highs and then sometimes
57:32you'll have the same for equal lows like
57:34this. You have equal lows down here and
57:36that's going to give you the exact same.
57:38So what you want to be looking for are
57:40lows,
57:41highs, equal highs, equal lows. Some
57:45other forms are, you know, trend lines
57:48and some really powerful sessions,
57:51right? Because not all highs and lows
57:53are the same. Not all highs and lows are
57:55equal. There can be prioritized highs
57:58and prioritized lows. I'm going to dive
58:00deeper into that in phase three. So what
58:04is a liquidity sweep? And more
58:06importantly, why do they happen? Let's
58:08first start with what actually is a
58:10liquidity sweep. Very, very simply put,
58:12a liquidity sweep is when price breaches
58:16a high, fails to close above that high,
58:20wicks above that high, and then closes
58:23back inside of the price range. The
58:25opposite can also be true in a bearish
58:27example. Now, that is what a liquidity
58:30sweep looks like. That's the easy part.
58:32That's what everybody understands.
58:33Everybody understands what a liquidity
58:34sweep is, but very few understand why a
58:38liquidity sweep happens. To understand
58:40this, you need to understand the basics
58:42of an auction market theory.
58:44Essentially, for every buyer, there must
58:47be a seller. Meaning, if you want to buy
58:50100 lots of Euro dollar, there must be
58:54someone on the other side of the market
58:56willing to sell a 100 lots of Euro
58:59dollar. This could be 100 different
59:01people all selling one lot. It could be
59:04two bigger people looking to sell 50
59:06lots. It doesn't matter how many people.
59:09All that matters is how many lots are
59:11available at any one price point. Now
59:13that you understand that every buyer
59:15needs a seller and every seller needs a
59:17buyer, you need to understand how an
59:19institution operates. You see
59:21institutions when they want to place
59:23large orders in the market, they know
59:26that they have large volume. That means
59:29that if they want to place a position,
59:31it's going to be a big position. But for
59:33them to do that, they need somebody on
59:35the other side of the market to take
59:37that position. Well, what do you know?
59:39We understand that at highs and at lows,
59:43there are these large liquidity pockets.
59:46What is in those liquidity pockets is a
59:48large amount of orders. And so if an
59:51institution wanted to sell a 100,000
59:56lots of Euro dollar, let's say
59:58hypothetically, well, if they just sold
1:00:00at market price, here's what would
1:00:02happen. So this right here is the order
1:00:05flow. This is what's actually going on
1:00:08in the market. This is what the real
1:00:09market looks like. I'll throw a picture
1:00:11up of the real order flow right now. As
1:00:13you can see that this is a simplified
1:00:15version of it because I need to explain
1:00:17something to you. You see, every single
1:00:18candle that you see, every phase of
1:00:21candles, this is independent of time
1:00:23frame. So, if you're on a 15-minute time
1:00:25frame, this is a 15-minute candle. And
1:00:27inside of this 15-minute candle, you
1:00:29will see the 15minute order flow for
1:00:32that candle. Let's say that they were
1:00:33daily candles. So, inside of this would
1:00:36be the daily order flow. And inside of
1:00:37the daily order flow, you would see
1:00:39this. Now, inside the market, inside the
1:00:42order flow, you will see the bid and
1:00:43you'll see the ask. The bid is the
1:00:46demand. Those are the people who are
1:00:48willing to buy, right? They are bidding
1:00:50on price. Ask is the sellers. They are
1:00:53the ones who are selling. They are
1:00:55asking for the price. Hey, my asking
1:00:58price is this in order to sell. And then
1:01:00the price is the price. So at any one
1:01:02point in time, price will be sitting at
1:01:04any one point in price. That price is
1:01:07considered fair value by both market
1:01:10participants. And here's how it works.
1:01:11The market is comprised of two sides,
1:01:13active and passive. You have active
1:01:15buyers and passive buyers. An active
1:01:17buyer is someone who will step in at the
1:01:20current market price and execute orders.
1:01:24They don't care about waiting for price
1:01:26to come back down to a certain level.
1:01:27They want to buy right now and so they
1:01:29are willing to buy at a premium. Same
1:01:32for sellers. Active sellers are willing
1:01:34to sell at this specific price right
1:01:36now. They're not waiting for price to
1:01:38come back. Passive buyers and passive
1:01:40sellers are people who are waiting for
1:01:42price to come into a certain area and
1:01:44then they will buy or then they will
1:01:47sell. So when you're looking at the
1:01:48order book you'll see all of these
1:01:49pending orders. What these are are
1:01:52potential fills meaning at any one point
1:01:55in time these orders can be removed
1:01:58unless they get triggered. When they get
1:01:59triggered then they get activated into
1:02:01the market. So here's how it works and
1:02:03here's how you see a candle actually get
1:02:05formed in real time. This candle, the
1:02:08new day is opening at 104 like this.
1:02:11What happens is at some point in time,
1:02:13let's say an active buyer steps into the
1:02:16market and they want to buy let's say 50
1:02:21lots of Euro dollar. And so they want to
1:02:23buy right now 50 lots of Euro dollar.
1:02:25Well, there is nobody at 104 willing to
1:02:28sell. So what happens is the price seeks
1:02:32the next block of liquidity like this.
1:02:34And then you see the candle move and
1:02:36this then becomes a bullish candle. So
1:02:39you see that we come up into here and
1:02:41you see there are nine lots here. Well,
1:02:43what happens is these nine lots go to
1:02:45zero and whoever was selling these nine
1:02:47lots, they get filled on their cells.
1:02:50But this trader here still has 41 lots
1:02:54that are left unfilled. So then if
1:02:56there's no sellers here, then it's going
1:02:58to go to the next block of liquidity and
1:03:01then it's going to go to 106. At this
1:03:03point, there are 40 units to sell. And
1:03:06so, these 40 get consumed and they go to
1:03:07zero. And all of these sellers get
1:03:09triggered into their trade. But there's
1:03:11still one unit left unfilled. And so,
1:03:13price has to go to the next available
1:03:16block of liquidity to take that. And one
1:03:19of these 30 units will get triggered as
1:03:22a sell. And then there'll be 29 left at
1:03:24this price. But the reality is there's
1:03:26nobody willing to buy from them at this
1:03:29price point. So, they don't get filled.
1:03:30So, if sometimes you have a wonder, you
1:03:32take a trade and prices hit your entry,
1:03:34but you still don't get filled into your
1:03:36position, that's because there is no
1:03:38liquidity available for your order
1:03:41specifically to get filled at that price
1:03:43point. Then, let's say, for whatever
1:03:44reason, this is our high. So, we're
1:03:47going to map out this right here as our
1:03:50highest point of price. And then, we're
1:03:52going to do it to the low of price right
1:03:55here. Then, let's say an active seller
1:03:58comes into the market. And let's say a
1:04:00seller steps in uh who's willing to sell
1:04:02at this specific price for 50 lots
1:04:06again. And let's say there are you know
1:04:08like four lots or something at this
1:04:10price point. Then what happens? Price
1:04:12goes and seeks where the liquidity is.
1:04:15So there's no buyers in this price
1:04:18point. So price skips this level. Inside
1:04:20of here there are four lots. Those four
1:04:22lots get consumed by the 50. We're still
1:04:24left with 46. Then you have seven in
1:04:27here, nine in here and 10 in here. Not
1:04:30enough to fill the 50. So price comes
1:04:31into here to collect the seven, the
1:04:34nine, the 10, whatever it is. And then
1:04:36this is where price ends up. Now that
1:04:39once bullish candle then turns into a
1:04:42bearish candle and that is essentially
1:04:44how the candle gets formed. Now why this
1:04:47is important is because I need you to
1:04:48understand something. Let's say for
1:04:50example a large institution steps into
1:04:52the market and they actually want to buy
1:04:55a,000 lots worth of Euro dollar at this
1:04:58point right here right 1.01 that's their
1:05:02target price when institutions come into
1:05:04the market and they build a position
1:05:06because institutions don't just place a
1:05:08trade they build a position I'll explain
1:05:10why in a moment so they've got an
1:05:11intention of placing a th00and units of
1:05:15Euro dollar and they have a target of 1
1:05:1902 to be their average price. Now,
1:05:21here's what happens. Let's say there's
1:05:22100 in here, you know, 20 in here, 50 in
1:05:26here. The likelihood is is there isn't
1:05:28enough liquidity available on the other
1:05:30side to fill those 10,000 orders. So,
1:05:32instead of the institutions coming into
1:05:34the market and placing all their 1,000
1:05:36at one time because what happens is if
1:05:38they do that, price would end up going
1:05:40from here and absolutely skyrocketing
1:05:43all the way up here. And then all of a
1:05:46sudden, you know, they might have got
1:05:47filled 20 down here, you know, 30 here,
1:05:51100 in here, 300 in here. And all of a
1:05:54sudden, their target of getting an
1:05:57average order value of 1.02 completely
1:06:00evaporates. And now they're getting 1.1,
1:06:04right? Completely out of alignment with
1:06:06what they wanted to. So, what they do is
1:06:08they slowly build a position. They'll
1:06:11put in 50 now and then it won't really
1:06:13move price. and then more sellers will
1:06:15step in and they'll put another 50 and
1:06:17another 50 and another 50 and another
1:06:1850. Right? That's kind of how they build
1:06:20out a position. That's why you'll often
1:06:22see that institutions build positions in
1:06:25ranging markets. Now, here's the other
1:06:28thing that they will do. They understand
1:06:30that at these highs and at these lows,
1:06:33there is a lot of liquidity, right? So
1:06:36maybe above this high there might be a
1:06:39thousand units to sell at this level.
1:06:44Why? Because you have buyers take
1:06:45profits that act as sell. You have
1:06:48breakout traders that are acting as
1:06:50sellside liquidity as well. So what
1:06:52you'll see is they will sometimes
1:06:54strategically push price into these
1:06:57areas so that all of those units of
1:07:00sales get flooded into the market. And
1:07:03guess who's there ready to buy them up
1:07:05and absorb them? That is going to be
1:07:07these guys. These guys are sitting in
1:07:10here. If this institution wants to,
1:07:12let's say, sell, you know, a,000 units,
1:07:15for example, at this price point, right?
1:07:18Or in and around these areas. Let's say
1:07:20they're in here. What they'll do is
1:07:21they'll nudge price up into these
1:07:23liquidity pockets up in here where they
1:07:25know there is a large amount of buyers,
1:07:28right? There are breakout traders in
1:07:30here. There are take-profit levels.
1:07:32there are stop-loss levels. Um, there's
1:07:34a bunch of liquidity that sits in here.
1:07:38So, they know that they can nudge price
1:07:39up a little bit, trigger all this
1:07:41liquidity, and then take the other side
1:07:44of it to get a good fill of their value.
1:07:47And they'll do that, and they'll push
1:07:49price into these levels, making
1:07:50everybody believe that the market is,
1:07:54you know, bullish, having buyers flood
1:07:56to the market so that they can get their
1:07:59sell positions in. Now, you'll know that
1:08:02this is happening when you see that
1:08:05price wicks above the high because what
1:08:08happens is as price approaches a high
1:08:10and trades above that level, this is
1:08:12where the magic happens. All of the
1:08:15buyers that are stepping in here, this
1:08:18institution is absorbing all the sales,
1:08:20absorbing all the sells until
1:08:21eventually, guess what? There's no more
1:08:23buyers left at this price point. And so
1:08:26now all there is is the rest of the
1:08:28sellers that were sitting at this price
1:08:30point. And so price then comes back
1:08:33down. It closes below this previous
1:08:36high. And that is your telltale sign.
1:08:40Why? Because what the market is saying
1:08:43is that the market and all its
1:08:45participants do not agree that price
1:08:48should be trading higher than this
1:08:49level. They agree that price should be
1:08:50trading lower than this level. And so
1:08:53now the likelihood is is that we get an
1:08:57aggressive selloff that goes in this
1:09:01direction. That is a liquidity sweep. A
1:09:03liquidity sweep is when price
1:09:05aggressively runs a high, wicks above
1:09:08it, and then closes inside of it. But
1:09:10like I said, the why behind it is what's
1:09:13most important because that when we get
1:09:15into the next stage is going to give you
1:09:17a good understanding of context. So
1:09:20understanding that when we liquidate
1:09:22this level and close back inside of the
1:09:24range, that is a liquidity sweep. But
1:09:26like I said, they happen all the time
1:09:28and not all of them work. It's about
1:09:30identifying which ones work and most
1:09:32importantly why. And I'm going to get to
1:09:33that in just a moment. So that is a
1:09:35liquidity sweep and that is ultimately a
1:09:37large part as to why liquidity sweeps
1:09:41occur. Now we need to understand what's
1:09:43a run on liquidity. So a run on
1:09:46liquidity and a sweep of liquidity are
1:09:48two very different things. And the
1:09:50reality is is most people get these
1:09:52confused or they call the same thing.
1:09:55They call different things the same
1:09:56thing, not really understanding what is
1:09:58actually going on and what is the
1:10:00difference. So let me explain it to you
1:10:02now. You see how liquidity sweep was
1:10:04when price trades over a high and then
1:10:08closes back inside with a wick on the
1:10:12top like this indicating lower prices.
1:10:15This indicates a rejection, right? A
1:10:18rejection of the idea that price should
1:10:20trade higher, therefore it's likely to
1:10:22trade lower. It's a resistance to that
1:10:24idea. Well, a liquidity run is quite
1:10:27literally the opposite. A liquidity run
1:10:29is when price aggressively trades above
1:10:32a high and then also continues with that
1:10:36same level of momentum. Now, there's two
1:10:38very different dynamics that occur
1:10:40between a sweep and a run. And I want to
1:10:42explain that to you using kind of this
1:10:45um order flow in here. So what is a
1:10:50liquidity run and why is that a lot
1:10:53different than a liquidity sweep?
1:10:55You see a liquidity run is used
1:10:57differently because it's used to fuel a
1:10:59move as opposed to something else. Let's
1:11:03say you know you can quite clearly see
1:11:05that we have a low a high a higher low
1:11:08meaning that this low is higher than the
1:11:10previous one indicating signs of bullish
1:11:11order flow. Then you have a higher high
1:11:14meaning this high here is higher than
1:11:15the previous one indicating bullish
1:11:17signs of order flow. So the
1:11:18expectational order flow right the
1:11:20structure of price is bullish. So you're
1:11:23expecting higher prices. Well we know
1:11:25that down here we have liquidity up here
1:11:28we also have liquidity. Now the market
1:11:31is bullish but still there are obviously
1:11:34sellers inside of this price level. So
1:11:36when a seller has their position up here
1:11:39well their stop losses act as buyside
1:11:43liquidity and then you also have
1:11:45breakout traders that act as buyside
1:11:47liquidity.
1:11:49And so a liquidity run is when that
1:11:52liquidity is used to fuel a move. Right?
1:11:56So let's say for example you know um
1:11:59large money institutions were building
1:12:01up a position and let's say as price is
1:12:03kind of ranging around in these levels
1:12:05in here you know they're building a
1:12:06position they may give a little bit of a
1:12:08liquidation of an internal low whilst
1:12:10they're building their position like
1:12:11this right once they've built their
1:12:13position they've got a nice amount of
1:12:16orders set to go long then what they
1:12:19might do is they might initiate a little
1:12:22bit of a bullish move because they
1:12:24understand that by doing so that is
1:12:27going to induce buyers to step into the
1:12:29market and allow the market to move in
1:12:32the direction they need to go in.
1:12:33Because once they've built their
1:12:35position, they can't build a position
1:12:37and then also move price because what
1:12:40would be the point of that? It wouldn't
1:12:41really make much sense for them. So what
1:12:43they do is they build the position, they
1:12:46start the run and then they let the rest
1:12:48of the market, the herd take their
1:12:51position where they want to go. So
1:12:53they've built their position in here.
1:12:55They'll give price a little bit of a
1:12:56nudge. Bearing in mind we're already in
1:12:57bullish order flow. So the likelihood is
1:12:59we're going to go long anyway. And so
1:13:01what happens when they give that little
1:13:02nudge is that buyers start stepping into
1:13:04the market. And eventually when we go
1:13:07through this high which is the logical
1:13:09phase of price
1:13:12there is number one everyone who's
1:13:14already buying and everyone who's
1:13:16rushing to buy late. Number two all of
1:13:18the sellers that start to get in. That's
1:13:20why sometimes you see a rejection of a
1:13:21high as well because it induces more
1:13:23sellers to create more liquidity. Well,
1:13:25what happens then is when price reaches
1:13:27this level in here and all of these stop
1:13:30losses get filled and all of these um
1:13:34breakout traders get into the market,
1:13:36what happens is price
1:13:40runs itself,
1:13:42right? because the momentum of all the
1:13:45liquidity that gets filled in at this
1:13:47level. Plus, nobody wants to sell price
1:13:50really after we break out the high. So,
1:13:52there's less sellers, right? Which means
1:13:54it's easier for price to increase and
1:13:57there are more buyers. So, you have a
1:13:58lot of buyers, not many sellers, and
1:14:01therefore the price rockets with ease.
1:14:04What that does is that takes this
1:14:08position
1:14:09well into profit and that is a liquidity
1:14:12run. That is when price aggressively
1:14:14breaks a high but uses the liquidity
1:14:17that's sitting at that high as momentum
1:14:20to continue. Whereas a liquidity
1:14:22[snorts]
1:14:23sweep uses that liquidity at a high as a
1:14:26mechanism to get filled on the opposite
1:14:28side of their orders where you can
1:14:30expect price to go lower. So, they're
1:14:32two very different things used for very
Daily Bias
1:14:34different reasons.
1:14:38Literally, just one candle is all you
1:14:40need to become insanely profitable as a
1:14:43trader. And in this video, I'm going to
1:14:44show you exactly [music] how to
1:14:46understand the one candle rule and how
1:14:48to execute it into a live trading
1:14:50strategy. So, without further ado, let's
1:14:52jump straight in. Now, what you can see
1:14:53on screen right here is the trade that
1:14:55I'm going to be walking you through.
1:14:56It's the trade that was executed today
1:14:58and a bunch of the inner circle students
1:15:00also took this exact trade because of
1:15:03this one candle model. Now, the one
1:15:05candle that I'm talking about is the
1:15:07daily candle and I'm going to show you
1:15:08in this video how you can use [music]
1:15:09the daily bias to consistently generate
1:15:12income from trading. Now, there are
1:15:14three main things that I want to walk
1:15:15you through in this video. The first one
1:15:17is how to read the previous day's candle
1:15:20to [music] understand what today is
1:15:21likely going to do. The second one is
1:15:23higher time frame magnetism. And
1:15:26finally, the third one is entries,
1:15:28right? How do you actually enter based
1:15:30off of your daily bias? That's when I'll
1:15:32recap the exact trade that I took today.
1:15:34So, here I am on the daily time frame
1:15:37and I'm starting from the 13th of
1:15:39October. We're in early December right
1:15:41now. In fact, this trade was executed on
1:15:43the 3rd of December. And I'm going to
1:15:44literally walk you through every single
1:15:46daily candle to show you how you can
1:15:49predict the next day's candle. And then
1:15:51I'm also going to explain draws on
1:15:53liquidity/ area of interest. This is
1:15:55what's going to give you an edge in
1:15:56understanding where the daily might
1:15:58gravitate towards. And then finally,
1:15:59when we get to today, I'll show you how
1:16:01I used this daily candle model and how I
1:16:04was able to get into my position and the
1:16:06exact trade that I took. So, starting
1:16:08off plain and simple, predicting the
1:16:10daily candle, you can basically with a
1:16:12very high degree of accuracy understand
1:16:14what the next daily candle is going to
1:16:16look like based off of what the previous
1:16:18day's candle looks like. So, we'll walk
1:16:20through step by step and I'll explain it
1:16:22all. So, we'll start with where we're
1:16:23at, right? Monday the 13th of October.
1:16:25You can see this is a bearish daily
1:16:27candle and it's honestly very
1:16:28indecisive. So a candle like this and a
1:16:31day like this doesn't really give us any
1:16:32information. We don't actually know what
1:16:34the next day is going to do. We're kind
1:16:35of in a consolidation phase. What I will
1:16:37say is that the market is always ranging
1:16:40from consolidation to expansion back
1:16:45into consolidation back into either
1:16:49expansion in the buy side or expansion
1:16:51toward the sell side. So, we know we're
1:16:53going to be gearing up for a direct
1:16:55move. We just need to see the direction
1:16:56of that. And so, the next daily candle
1:16:58prints like this. Now, very, very
1:17:01important details. Notice, right, that
1:17:03this is a bullish daily candle. That's
1:17:04the first thing I want you to see here
1:17:07that we open down here. We wick below
1:17:10the low and then we close toward the buy
1:17:12side of this daily candle. Right? So, we
1:17:14have a bullish daily candle that has
1:17:16wicked below the previous day's low and
1:17:18closed back inside of the range. Already
1:17:21that immediately tells me tomorrow is a
1:17:23bullish day. And on this candle, what we
1:17:25can see is that we open down here. We
1:17:27have a very bullish aggression and we're
1:17:30closing toward the buy side again above
1:17:33the previous day's high. Closed toward
1:17:34the buy side. It tells me again that
1:17:37tomorrow is going to be a bullish day or
1:17:39at least we are going to get a bullish
1:17:41expansion. Again, another bullish move.
1:17:44We've broken above that previous day's
1:17:45high and we've closed up in here. Again,
1:17:48that tells me that we're definitely
1:17:49going to be targeting this day's high
1:17:51and you know, we're going to be
1:17:53essentially ending up higher than the
1:17:55previous day's high. Okay. Now, what we
1:17:57see here is a bearish daily candle,
1:18:00right? But we were expecting higher
1:18:01prices this daily candle right here. And
1:18:04if I just focus on just this daily
1:18:05candle, and let's say we drop down to a
1:18:071 hour time frame, right? Here we are, 1
1:18:08hour time frame. In fact, let's go to a
1:18:1015-inut real quick. So, the day opens
1:18:15here, right? This is where the daily
1:18:17candle opens. It opens on the and this
1:18:20is the daily candle. So this is the
1:18:23daily close to daily open. So it opens
1:18:26here. So you see that we actually open
1:18:28first going bullish. So the bias was
1:18:31higher prices. We got those higher
1:18:32prices and then eventually price sells
1:18:35off. And that's what that daily candle
1:18:37looks like. So if we go back to the
1:18:38daily time frame, what this now tells me
1:18:41is that tomorrow is going to be bearish
1:18:43because we've hit these highs. We've
1:18:45wicked above this high. So, you're
1:18:47looking for a wick above and a close
1:18:49back inside bearish. That tells me that
1:18:52tomorrow is going to be bearish. But
1:18:53also, what do we have? Right, this is
1:18:55step number two. Again, it's just
1:18:57reading your draw on liquidity. You can
1:18:59see here that we have this bullish fair
1:19:01value gap. So, tomorrow then I can
1:19:03already anticipate there's a good chance
1:19:05that we're going to trade bearish and
1:19:07we're going to enter in toward this fair
1:19:10value gap, right? That's what I have in
1:19:12mind. And again, I'm just want to
1:19:13predict the next daily candle. And
1:19:15again, what do you see? The next daily
1:19:17candle is another bearish candle, right?
1:19:18We've closed below and we've ended up
1:19:20inside this level. Now, the key here is
1:19:23the power of three, right? Many people,
1:19:25you've probably heard them talk about
1:19:26the power of three. The power of three
1:19:28is essentially a manipulation and
1:19:32distribution, right? So, you have, you
1:19:34know, a rangebound period like this and
1:19:36then you have a manipulation
1:19:39and then you have a distribution. That's
1:19:41kind of the power of three and it
1:19:43essentially states that before price
1:19:45will trade lower, it will first trade
1:19:46higher. You can see that time and time
1:19:48again in this model, right? So you can
1:19:50see here we've broken and closed below
1:19:51this low. But notice that beforehand
1:19:54there's a good chance that we actually
1:19:55come higher and then lower. What I want
1:19:58to be is I want to be a seller at this
1:20:00level of price. So if we do the same
1:20:02thing again, if we square off this price
1:20:04action and we go to yesterday's open and
1:20:07close. So here's the fair value gap down
1:20:09here. If we remove this for now and we
1:20:11find the open of this day is here 5:00 p
1:20:14p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Notice that
1:20:16we're expecting bearish price. But
1:20:18before we get the selloff, we get first
1:20:20a bullish move, right? That's the
1:20:22manipulation of the day and then the
1:20:24sell-off. So I, someone who wants to be
1:20:25a seller, I'm waiting for that
1:20:27manipulation and then I'm looking to
1:20:29sell after that manipulation occurs.
1:20:30It's always the same thing again. We'll
1:20:32always get the pullback and
1:20:33continuation. That's the same thing,
1:20:35right? All right. It's like before you
1:20:36trade lower, if you have a bearish daily
1:20:38bias, the next day you're expecting, you
1:20:40know, a manipulation before the
1:20:41continuation lower and you want to
1:20:43basically be selling here. If this is
1:20:45the daily open, first we're going to
1:20:47manipulate toward the buy side, then
1:20:48we're going to sell off toward the sell
1:20:49side. And that is essentially what we're
1:20:50seeing. And so for me now, what I would
1:20:53be looking at for the next level is
1:20:55first and foremost, let's also talk
1:20:57about more drawn liquidity. What do we
1:20:59have here, right? Equal lows down here
1:21:01at these lows. Also, if you look down
1:21:04here, we have this overlapping fair
1:21:06value gap. Very, very interesting area.
1:21:09An area that I was talking to my
1:21:10students with for a couple of weeks,
1:21:13saying that ultimately we will probably
1:21:14end up trading into this level. Equal
1:21:15lows down here and an overlapping fair
1:21:17value gap. So, we also have this as a
1:21:20draw on liquidity, right? Or a bias to
1:21:22trade towards. Again, looking at the
1:21:24next daily candle, what do you think is
1:21:25going to happen? For me, I'm indicating
1:21:27more likely that we're going to get more
1:21:29bearish price action, right? Another
1:21:31bearish continuation. What happens? We
1:21:33open. We first have a run toward the buy
1:21:35side and then we have the sell-off doing
1:21:37what again? That same pattern, right? We
1:21:40have our open manipulation and move
1:21:45toward the sell side, right? And now
1:21:46what have we done? Now we've closed over
1:21:49that fair value gap. So we've inverted
1:21:50that fair value gap, which then also
1:21:52becomes another area of interest for me.
1:21:54So if I was to let's say be a seller
1:21:57now, right? An interesting move could be
1:21:59a retracement into here and then a
1:22:00continuation out of here. Right? This is
1:22:02how you're building daily bias
1:22:03essentially. Now notice what happens
1:22:05here. This time we actually have a
1:22:07bullish daily candle. And notice that
1:22:08we've wicked below this low and closed
1:22:11back inside. That to me is typically
1:22:13sign of a reversal. Right? So what I
1:22:15would now be looking for is now we have
1:22:18this bullish fair value gap in here
1:22:20which is also overlapping. Now, I would
1:22:23be expecting the next day to trade
1:22:25higher above this previous day's high
1:22:28and into this level right here. Right?
1:22:32Simple as that. That's what I would be
1:22:33looking for. And what you notice is on
1:22:34this specific day, we actually don't get
1:22:36that. So, we do get the open, we do get
1:22:38the manipulation, and we do start
1:22:39getting the momentum. So, definitely you
1:22:41could have been in a trade at these
1:22:43lows. And again, if I open up the
1:22:4515-minut time frame, which is my primary
1:22:47time frame for direction, you'll notice
1:22:49what market opens. We have the bearish
1:22:51manipulation, right? Even look at the
1:22:53structure on the 15-minut time frame. We
1:22:55were very bearish. Now we've shifted
1:22:57bullish, right? Which is yesterday's
1:22:59manipulation and close above the high
1:23:02and now we're selling off again. Longs
1:23:05accumulated in this New York session and
1:23:06you're just holding them ready for the
1:23:08next day. We're probably going to end up
1:23:09in this level. So, it's the same thing,
1:23:11right? Just because we haven't fulfilled
1:23:13the prophecy yet, we've still been able
1:23:15to probably execute long positions in
1:23:17this area. And again, we go back to the
1:23:18daily, right? We've still anticipated
1:23:20bullish price action for that day after
1:23:22the manipulation, right? So, anytime
1:23:24that I have a bias to go higher, I first
1:23:27want it to go lower before it goes
1:23:28higher. And I want to try to buy in this
1:23:30level. So, this day, what would I be
1:23:32expecting? A continuation higher above
1:23:34these two highs. And that's what
1:23:36happens, right? We get that move, we
1:23:37open, we pull back, and we continue
1:23:39trading higher. Now, what we've done is
1:23:41now we've come back into this bearish
1:23:44order block. You can use this level, you
1:23:45can use this candle regardless, and
1:23:46we've had quite an aggressive reaction
1:23:48from it. But notice we have actually
1:23:50closed above the previous day's high. So
1:23:52what this tells me is there is a lower
1:23:54level of conviction, meaning the next
1:23:56day is a day where it could go higher,
1:23:58but it also could go lower. So you keep
1:24:00those things in mind, but ultimately
1:24:02it's a bullish candle. So you'd be
1:24:04expecting probably a continuation,
1:24:05right? Which is what we get. We get the
1:24:07open, low, high, close. So again, it's
1:24:12the same thing. price is trading higher,
1:24:13but before it's trading higher, it's
1:24:15opening, coming down, and then trading
1:24:18higher, and then closing here, right?
1:24:20And so, you're getting the open, low,
1:24:22high, close. That's what that is. So,
1:24:24again, you're accumulating long
1:24:26positions in these levels based off of
1:24:28just the daily candle. Like, it's
1:24:29literally that simple. So, for this day
1:24:31now, what we can see is we have a
1:24:33bullish candle, but we have wicked above
1:24:35this high and closed back inside of the
1:24:37range. This tells me that this could be
1:24:39a reversal, but it could also be a
1:24:41continuation. Again, there is a little
1:24:43bit less clarity on the situation.
1:24:45You're not going to get every single day
1:24:47absolutely correct. That's not the game
1:24:48of trading. The game of trading is
A Little Extra From Me
1:24:50probabilities. Hey, again, again, just
1:24:52give me one second. I want to quickly
1:24:53share something with you, which is an
1:24:55update since I've last produced this
1:24:57video, which is again going to help you
1:24:58even more. So, what you're looking at
1:24:59right now is the data on what exactly
1:25:02you're watching, right? You're watching
1:25:03the daily bias. Now, I'm not someone who
1:25:05likes to just give ideas and things that
1:25:07look cool. No, I'm a data driven trader.
1:25:09That's how you really actually get
1:25:10results in trading. So this is what I
1:25:12want to share with you. This what you're
1:25:13looking at right now, it looks
1:25:14complicated but it's really simple. This
1:25:15is for the both daily and weekly bias.
1:25:18So what I'm explaining to you, the
1:25:19concepts I'm explaining to you, we have
1:25:20gone and done a deep dive data
1:25:23collection with over 15 years of data.
1:25:26So looking at every single daily and
1:25:28weekly candle over the past 15 years,
1:25:31this is what we found. We found that the
1:25:33bullish bias is accurate on average 67%
1:25:38of the time. The bearish is accurate
1:25:40roughly 67% of the time as well. So the
1:25:43daily bias that I'm sharing with you
1:25:44right now over the past 15 years, right,
1:25:47which is 5,469
1:25:50daily candles, it has been accurate 67%
1:25:53of the time. And we did the exact same
1:25:55thing for weekly. And weekly was
1:25:56actually slightly higher. It was
1:25:58actually 68% overall. So you can see
1:26:00bearish and bullish. So we are able to
1:26:02consistently predict the daily and
1:26:04weekly bias with a 68% degree of
1:26:06accuracy. And not only that, what I
1:26:09shared with you earlier on market
1:26:10structure, we've actually built in to
1:26:12this same indicator. So you can see here
1:26:14we it shows us our market structure, but
1:26:16in the top right corner here, it
1:26:19actually also shows us the directional
1:26:21bias. So you can see here it tells us
1:26:23that the weekly is bearish and the daily
1:26:25is actually bearish. So it tells us our
1:26:28directional bias. The direction of bias
1:26:30is quite literally built into this
1:26:31indicator as well as normal market
1:26:34structure depending on what time it is
1:26:36that you're looking at. So yeah, I
1:26:37thought I would share that with you.
1:26:38Again, just a general reminder. You can
1:26:39check it out. The link is in the
1:26:41description. So the next day we get that
1:26:43continuation again, right? Higher
1:26:45prices, but notice that the momentum is
1:26:47starting to kind of fade away. So again,
1:26:48what do we get? A wick above the high
1:26:50and close back inside. So again, this
1:26:52for me now, when you're wicking above
1:26:54this high, closing inside the range,
1:26:56it's usually indication of a reversal,
1:26:58but you could also continue before you
1:27:00reverse, right? So a lot of the times
1:27:02when you get these types of candles
1:27:03where they're wick heavy, you'll
1:27:04probably see before a reversal, maybe a
1:27:06sweep of a high. If we look at this
1:27:08level, okay, so the next day, we don't
1:27:10get that. We get a very aggressive
1:27:12sell-off, right? So [snorts] we close
1:27:14below that previous day's low. We open
1:27:16here, we manipulate toward the buy side,
1:27:18we have an aggressive selloff, we close
1:27:20below the previous day's low for me. Now
1:27:21the next day is simple. We have equal
1:27:23lows down here. Again, that number two
1:27:25draw in liquidity, that bias. We have
1:27:27those equal lows as a draw in liquidity.
1:27:29We have these equal lows as a draw in
1:27:31liquidity. So what am I looking for
1:27:32today? This is a very obvious day. I'm
1:27:34expecting a pullback and then a selloff.
1:27:37Right? That's the daily bias. What
1:27:39happens? Again, we can go into the
1:27:4015-minut time frame. You can see we
1:27:42open, we put in the high, and then we
1:27:44sell off aggressively. Right? Perfect
1:27:46opportunity, perfect day to be getting
1:27:47into short positions, right? Where does
1:27:49the market open? Market opens here at
1:27:515:00 p.m. What happens? We pull back
1:27:54into this area and then we sell off. In
1:27:57London session, we're good to be
1:27:58selling. New York session, sell
1:28:00continuation, right? Same thing. All
1:28:01based off the previous days candle.
1:28:04That's it. Just the daily bias, right?
1:28:06So, the market, we open, we put in the
1:28:09high, and then we sell off aggressively.
1:28:11So, what do you think I'm expecting
1:28:12today? Well, now we've taken out this
1:28:14drawn liquidity, but we still have this
1:28:15one down here. We've closed below that
1:28:17low, right? aggressive close below that
1:28:19low and now I'm expecting what? A
1:28:21pullback and continuation again. What
1:28:23happens? Open, pull back, continuation,
1:28:26right? Perfect mitigation of this
1:28:28previous day's low. What do I'm
1:28:29expecting again? Well, now we've taken
1:28:30the draw in liquidity. We've hit the
1:28:32draw in liquidity, right? We've also hit
1:28:34into this fair value gap. But we have
1:28:36again closed below that low. And so I am
1:28:39most likely expecting lower prices for
1:28:41this day. And again, what do we get? We
1:28:43get open, pullback, selloff. So again,
1:28:47this is where you want to be looking at
1:28:48it. Before this day even opens, you're
1:28:50expecting, okay, today I'm going to be
1:28:51bearish. We're going to have a bullish
1:28:53pullback. I'm going to sell. Go lower.
1:28:55Next day, bearish, bullish pullback. I'm
1:28:57going to be a seller. Go lower. Next
1:28:58day, bearish, bullish, pullback. I'm a
1:29:00seller. Go lower right on this day. Now,
1:29:02notice that the momentum is starting to
1:29:04get a little bit slower. Now, we're
1:29:06inside of our draw on liquidity. Now,
1:29:08you can start adding that into the
1:29:10context of slowing down and expect that
1:29:11maybe at some point we'll start to get a
1:29:13reversal. But still for this specific
1:29:15day, my next daily bias would still be
1:29:17bearish. Why? Because we've closed below
1:29:19the previous day's low. Again, what do
1:29:21we get? Open, pullback, sell off. Again,
1:29:24you're just a seller in this market. The
1:29:26next day, what am I expecting? Another
1:29:28sell. Now, notice that we do get the
1:29:30sell, right? So, we do trade below this
1:29:32low, which was the goal of the day. But
1:29:34now, notice what happens. We have a
1:29:36bullish day and we actually have a wick
1:29:38below previous day's low and a close
1:29:40back inside. This for me is literally a
1:29:43SOS that we are about to reverse. The
1:29:45market is going to now trade bullish.
1:29:47And it's very simple. Now you look and
1:29:48you see, okay, well, we actually have
1:29:50number one point of interest that we're
1:29:52trading out of. Secondly, we have a
1:29:53bullish fair value gap here. We have a
1:29:55bullish fair value gap here, right? So
1:29:58now we have these higher time frame
1:30:00areas of interest or draws on liquidity
1:30:02that we're expecting price to trade back
1:30:03into. So now what do you think I'm
1:30:04looking for? Now today, I'm expecting to
1:30:07be a buyer. Price is going to pull back
1:30:09in here and then shoot off up here. Pull
1:30:10back in here and shoot up off in here.
1:30:12Right? So, what does the next day do?
1:30:14The next day, we open here. A very small
1:30:16pullback and a very aggressive bullish
1:30:18candle. Well, now what do you think I'm
1:30:21expecting price to do on this next day?
1:30:24Again, I'm expecting that we're going to
1:30:25have another bullish day, right? A
1:30:27little pullback and continuation. What
1:30:30happens? Market opens, we sell off, and
1:30:32we go higher, right? 50-minut time
1:30:35frame. What does that look like? Again,
1:30:36perfect opportunity to get longs. Right,
1:30:38the market opens here. Market opens, we
1:30:42sell off, London opens, right? There's a
1:30:44perfect entry opportunity in here. We
1:30:46traded long on this position.
1:30:49Market booms towards the upside, which
1:30:50is expected. So, they get the
1:30:52manipulation, you wait for the
1:30:53manipulation, you wait for the
1:30:54confirmation on the lower time frames,
1:30:56and then you execute and long, right?
1:30:58It's so simple. It literally works every
1:31:01day. So, now what do we have? We've
1:31:02filled all of those levels. Now we have
1:31:04a bearish draw on liquidity, right? Cuz
1:31:06now we have this daily fed value gap.
1:31:09Notice that we have been accurate with a
1:31:11like 95% level of accuracy. Now this day
1:31:15is indecisive. We don't get a shift
1:31:17higher or we don't get a shift lower.
1:31:18That for me again is quite indecisive. I
1:31:20don't have a read on the next day. But
1:31:22then what happens? Then we get a bullish
1:31:25candle. Now we've wicked above this high
1:31:28and closed back inside. And we haven't
1:31:31closed above any candles. So that for me
1:31:33is usually a sign of a reversal. But
1:31:35because it's a bullish day, it could
1:31:37still trade higher before the reversal,
1:31:39right? And again, what do we have?
1:31:41Pretty much an undecided day. But we do
1:31:43have a bullish day and it has closed
1:31:46above this high and above this high. So
1:31:48I would be expecting for price on this
1:31:50day to trade into this old high. Right?
1:31:53Very simple. And that's what we have.
1:31:55Open pullback trade into the high. Now
1:31:57we have a very bullish day. I would be
1:31:59expecting what? You answer this at home.
1:32:01Where do you think I'm expecting price
1:32:02to go? Higher, right? Yes. On this day,
1:32:06it doesn't happen. In fact, we failed to
1:32:08take out the high and now we have a
1:32:09bearish candle. So today, what I would
1:32:12be expecting is lower prices. We have a
1:32:14fair value gap here, right? We have a
1:32:16bullish fair value gap here, bullish
1:32:18value gap down here. I'd be expecting
1:32:19lower prices on this day. What happens?
1:32:21Market opens, pullback, selloff. We've
1:32:24closed below this low. What do you think
1:32:26I'm expecting that price is going to do
1:32:28today? Same thing again. Bearish open,
1:32:31pull back, sell off. Perfectly into that
1:32:33old low. We close below. What do you
1:32:35think I'm expecting? Another bearish
1:32:37day, right? Pull back, sell off. Very
1:32:40aggressive. Where into that draw on
1:32:42liquidity? Okay, fine. Another bearish
1:32:45day. Where do you think I'm expecting
1:32:46price to go? Lower again. Perfect. But
1:32:49then what happens now? We do get lower
1:32:51prices. We could have been a seller, but
1:32:55now we have a clear reversal indication.
1:32:57We're coming from a point of interest.
1:32:59We've wicked below the low and we've
1:33:01clearly closed well above that previous
1:33:03day's low. Now I'm expecting a reversal.
1:33:06I'm expecting a bullish candle. What
1:33:08else do we have? We have bullish daily
1:33:10fair value gap in this scenario. We get
1:33:12both, right? And that can happen. We get
1:33:14the run higher and we get the run lower.
1:33:16But for me again, even still a wick
1:33:19below the low and a close back inside.
1:33:22That's probably more indication of a
1:33:24bullish day for the next day. And we do
1:33:26have that bullish day next day. Now
1:33:27notice you go from expansion a little
1:33:30bit rangebound. So on this type of day,
1:33:32I don't have a clear definite read on
1:33:35price. I'm just not sure. But what I do
1:33:37see here is we have created a swing low.
1:33:39Right? We have one low, two lows, and a
1:33:41swing here. So this could be a protected
1:33:42low for now. And it is right. Market
1:33:45opens, pullback, aggressive bullish
1:33:47shift. What do you think I'm expecting?
1:33:49Another bullish day. Right? Open, pull
1:33:51back, higher prices. What do you think
1:33:53I'm expecting? Another bullish day. We
1:33:55do get the bullish day right please
1:33:57understand we do break this high but now
1:33:59what happens now we've wked above this
1:34:01high and closed back inside of this
1:34:03range tomorrow I am expecting a bearish
1:34:06day so we do get the bearish day right
1:34:08price does sell off this is the key
1:34:10thing just because it closed bullish it
1:34:12sells off but now it's sold off it's
1:34:14wicked that low and closed bullish where
1:34:17do you think tomorrow is going to go
1:34:18tomorrow is probably going to be bullish
1:34:20and I'm expecting this high and this
1:34:21high to get taken out again perfect
1:34:23example we pull back Right? And this is
1:34:25Monday the 1st of December now. So we've
1:34:27wicked, it's a bullish candle, but we've
1:34:29wicked above the high. I would be
1:34:30expecting a reversal. Now you come into
1:34:33not into today into the next day, right?
1:34:36Which is yesterday. So yesterday you can
1:34:39see that we had a bullish candle. So
1:34:42we've closed above these highs. What do
1:34:44we also have? We have buy side
1:34:46liquidity. We have equal highs at this
1:34:49high. We have this old high, right? So,
1:34:52what do you think I'm expecting coming
1:34:54into today? Like, as of recording this
1:34:56today, what do you think I'm expecting?
1:34:58I'm expecting price to take out this
1:35:00high. So, now, how did I trade this day?
1:35:01Let's take a look. This is price action
1:35:03right now. This is where we are. When I
1:35:04come into my London session for the day,
1:35:08my read on price for the day is bullish.
1:35:10Notice, guys, we have literally just
1:35:12gone through over a month's worth of
1:35:14price action. 6 weeks of price action
1:35:16just using the understanding of the
1:35:18previous day's candle. and we have been
1:35:20accurate 95% of the time. Like what I'm
1:35:23sharing isn't a joke. In today's price
1:35:25action, I'm expecting higher prices. So
1:35:27again, let's go back into London session
1:35:29where price opens up. This is what price
1:35:31looks like. This is the current daily
1:35:34candle. So we've opened here. We've
1:35:36opened and we're already trading
1:35:38bullish, which is what I'm expecting.
1:35:39But we haven't yet hit this old high
1:35:43right up in here. And we also haven't
1:35:45yet hit these old highs which we just
1:35:47looked at on the daily time frame. And
1:35:49we know that that's going to be our
1:35:51target. So now what I need is step
1:35:53number three which is how do you
1:35:54actually become a buyer on these days?
1:35:57Well, what you do is you wait for a
1:35:58pullback. So you can enter into let's
1:36:00say the 1 minute time frame right inside
1:36:02of your session or the 5minut time frame
1:36:04sorry inside of your session and you
1:36:05wait for a pullback right a manipulation
1:36:08internally and then a confirmation. So
1:36:10you can see we move toward higher. We
1:36:12still haven't taken out those highs yet,
1:36:14right? We still these highs are still
1:36:15intact. That's equal highs. I'm first
1:36:17waiting for a manipulation before I
1:36:20trade long.
1:36:21That manipulation can look like that.
1:36:23Right here it is. We're still expecting
1:36:26higher prices, right? The daily draw in
1:36:28liquidity is still higher. We've
1:36:30manipulated internal prices like this.
1:36:31And now notice we've gone from very
1:36:33bearish to kind of just sitting in this
1:36:35price range. We're just waiting for that
1:36:37confirmation, waiting for price to tell
1:36:39us that we can go higher.
1:36:41That's bearish candle. Okay, that could
1:36:43be a reversal.
1:36:46Okay, that's a manipulation. Boom.
1:36:48That's a bullish candle. So now in here,
1:36:51you can see that we're already getting
1:36:52the reversal, right? We were bearish and
1:36:54now we've shifted bullish. So now I
1:36:57believe that the rest of the day can
1:36:58then continue going bullish. And if we
1:37:00go to the one minute time frame, you
1:37:02will see that price was bearish,
1:37:06right? And now it's bullish. So now I've
1:37:09got my confirmation. The order flow has
1:37:11shifted. Now I can expect the rest of
1:37:13this day to be a bullish day, right?
1:37:16It's that simple. And where's my entry?
1:37:19Usually I'm executing entries on the
1:37:215minut time frame. I'm looking at order
1:37:23blocks, fair value gaps, whatever makes
1:37:25sense, right? My entries are going to be
1:37:27in here on this bearish order block,
1:37:29bullish order block, sorry. My stop loss
1:37:31going to be below the low, right? I can
1:37:32use this inverted candle here. Whatever
1:37:34makes sense. And then I'm just targeting
1:37:36a 1 to5 risk-to-reward. Let's say I
1:37:38have, you know, 400K in one prop firm.
1:37:41I'm risking $4,000 on this one trade.
1:37:43I'm risking $4,000 to make $20,000,
1:37:46right? That's the play of this. That's
1:37:47why you sometimes see me having these
1:37:4930k, 40k days. So, we get tagged into
1:37:52the trade. And now I'm just expecting
1:37:54the momentum of the day, right? The day
1:37:56bias is just going to take me to my
1:37:59takeprofit. And that's it. That's why I
1:38:01wanted to record this video live in this
1:38:02moment. I don't think I think this is
1:38:04some of the most valuable things I've
1:38:05given out on YouTube. That is how we
Supply and Demand
1:38:07execute those trades.
1:38:11If you can master supply and demand,
1:38:13you'll be able to trade alongside smart
1:38:15money. Stop getting caught on the wrong
1:38:17side of the market and take loads of
1:38:20high riskreward trades with high levels
1:38:22of accuracy. [music] In this video, I'm
1:38:24going to reveal to you the five truths
1:38:26about supply and demand that 99% of
1:38:29other traders will never understand and
1:38:31that my students have collectively used
1:38:33to go on and make hundreds of thousands
1:38:36of dollars in verified trading profits.
1:38:38This video will tell you what is supply
1:38:41and demand, how to read institutional
1:38:44order flow, how to accurately draw your
1:38:47supply and demand zones, how to find
1:38:49high probability zones that actually
1:38:51work, and then finally, how to enter and
1:38:54exit trades for large profits. Okay, so
1:38:58first things first, I want to explain to
1:39:00you what is supply and demand and how it
1:39:02actually controls the price of
1:39:04everything. So, in case you didn't know,
1:39:05supply and demand is literally pretty
1:39:07much what controls the price of
1:39:08absolutely everything that you can think
1:39:10of, right? Bar maybe some luxury goods
1:39:12that are based on psychological
1:39:14scarcity. So, let me explain to you
1:39:15supply and demand using this simple
1:39:17chart that we have right here and also
1:39:19how it directly relates to trading. On
1:39:21the left here, we have price. Along the
1:39:23bottom, we have quantity. Every market
1:39:25that you trade, forex, indices, crypto,
1:39:28whatever it may be, lives on this exact
1:39:31relationship. This downward line here,
1:39:34this line here is demand. And demand
1:39:37represents buyers. The higher that price
1:39:39goes, the fewer buyers are willing to
1:39:42buy. And the lower that price goes, the
1:39:45more buyers are willing to step in. This
1:39:48is why demand slopes downwards. This
1:39:51line here represents supply and supply
1:39:55represents sellers. At low prices,
1:39:58sellers aren't interested. At higher
1:40:00prices, sellers are motivated. This is
1:40:04why supply slopes upwards. At this point
1:40:06in the middle, this is what we call fair
1:40:09value. This is the only price where
1:40:11buyers and sellers agree. In trading
1:40:13terms, this is balance. When price goes
1:40:17above fair value, sellers are happy, but
1:40:20buyers aren't. There's too much supply
1:40:23and not enough demand. So, naturally,
1:40:25price wants to move down. When price
1:40:27trades far below fair value, buyers are
1:40:30excited but sellers aren't and therefore
1:40:33there is too much demand and not enough
1:40:35supply and so naturally price wants to
1:40:38move up. And so you can visually
1:40:40represent this like this right let's say
1:40:41we have a price sharp when price gets
1:40:43too far above perceived fair value. So
1:40:46when we go into this exploration phase
1:40:48after a range essentially at this point
1:40:50of time buyers aren't really interested
1:40:52they're not really motivated to keep
1:40:53buying but sellers sellers are very
1:40:56interested and motivated to sell. So
1:40:58because supply outweighs demand price
1:41:00naturally gravitates back to fair value.
1:41:02When we trade below fair value typically
1:41:05what we see is that buyers are
1:41:07ultimately very motivated to buy in here
1:41:10but sellers are less motivated to sell
1:41:12at these levels. And so naturally price
1:41:14will start to gravitate more toward fair
1:41:17value. This is ultimately how a market
1:41:19is created, right? It's what a chart
1:41:21looks like. Behind the candlesticks that
1:41:23you see, there is a story that we are
1:41:24being told about supply and demand and
1:41:26its relation to price. This is literally
1:41:29the entire reason that a market moves.
1:41:31Price does not move randomly. It moves
1:41:34to correct imbalance and pauses at
1:41:36balance. That's again why you see price
1:41:39move in such a way where once it becomes
1:41:41imbalanced price naturally wants to
1:41:43correct back to balance and you know a
1:41:45balanced price range when you see a lot
1:41:48of price ranging around. When you see a
1:41:51range in price usually this means that
1:41:53price is pretty balanced. Sellers and
1:41:55buyers are both pretty happy and this is
1:41:57what we call fair value. The moment that
1:42:00price moves away aggressively like so
1:42:02price becomes imbalanced right? It's
1:42:05above fair value. And if you've ever
1:42:06seen a fair value gap, then essentially
1:42:09this is what we're referring to. A fair
1:42:10value gap is an indication of an
1:42:13imbalanced market. The market is always
1:42:14going from areas of balance to areas of
1:42:17imbalance. And its job is to find new
1:42:20balance at this level or to rebalance at
1:42:23old balanced levels. This is why the
1:42:26market always looks like this. As
1:42:28traders, it's not our job to predict the
1:42:31future. We are simply identifying where
1:42:33supply or demand is likely to overwhelm
1:42:36the other and positioning ourselves
1:42:39around those areas. That is literally
1:42:41it. Every strategy, every indicator and
1:42:43every model that you've ever seen is
1:42:45built on this foundation. If you
1:42:47understand this, you understand markets.
1:42:50And from there, everything else is the
1:42:52smaller details and refinements that
1:42:54allow you to trade profitably
1:42:56consistently. And those are the details
1:42:58we're going to go into right now. So now
1:43:00we're going to be looking at
1:43:01institutional order flow, right? This is
1:43:03how a market actually works behind your
1:43:06candlesticks. So this is what the order
1:43:08book actually looks like. When you see a
1:43:11candlestick going up or a candlestick
1:43:13going down, beneath this candlestick is
1:43:17this, right? Which is what we call the
1:43:19depth of market or the order flow,
1:43:21whatever you want to refer to it as. In
1:43:22the order book, we have the bid, which
1:43:25is the buyers, and we have the ask,
1:43:28which is the sellers. Right? Just think
1:43:29of it as if you are a bidder, you're
1:43:31bidding on something, you're buying that
1:43:33thing, or you're willing to buy that
1:43:35thing. If you're setting an ask price,
1:43:36you're the one that's selling for
1:43:37something, you are asking for this
1:43:39amount for the product that you have.
1:43:41So, you already have the thing. And as a
1:43:43bidder, you don't have the thing. Right?
1:43:44Very simple terms. When someone hits the
1:43:46bid, they are wanting to buy. When
1:43:48someone hits the ask, they are wanting
1:43:49to sell to a bidder. Obviously for a
1:43:51market to work every bid must have an
1:43:54ask and every ask must have a bid.
1:43:56Right? That's how a market works. You
1:43:57cannot have a market where you have only
1:43:59the ask and no bid. So at any one point
1:44:02of time we have two participants in the
1:44:05market. We have the aggressive and we
1:44:07have the passive. Passive liquidity
1:44:11looks like this. So the current price is
1:44:141.5. Let's just say this is the current
1:44:16price. Let's say you were an aggressive
1:44:19buyer and let's say price was 1.5 right
1:44:22now. If you were an aggressive buyer,
1:44:24you would essentially have to go and
1:44:26find the most readily available seller.
1:44:29And so you would have to go and meet a
1:44:31seller of this, which is the ask. So if
1:44:33you were an aggressive bid, you would go
1:44:36and bid on the most recent ask, which in
1:44:39this case, let's say it's 1.6. So let's
1:44:41say we have a passive seller, right, who
1:44:43is sitting at 1.6. And at 1.6, 6. Let's
1:44:47say they have seven lots available. And
1:44:49let's say there's another passive seller
1:44:52at 1.7 who has three lots available,
1:44:56right? So, if you were an aggressive
1:44:58buyer priced at 1.5 and you want to hit
1:45:00the bid for 10 lots, here's what would
1:45:03happen. You would get filled your first
1:45:05seven lots at 1.6, right? And then these
1:45:08seven lots in here become zero. Then
1:45:12your next lot of liquidity which is the
1:45:16three lots that are remaining would get
1:45:18triggered at 1.7 right and then this
1:45:21would get cleared and this would be left
1:45:22at zero. And now the current price would
1:45:25be at 1.7 which is like this right? This
1:45:28is how you see a candle. You have the
1:45:30open of the candle and you have the
1:45:31current high of the candle. Now let's
1:45:33say the bid starts filling back up with
1:45:35more passive buyers. So you was the
1:45:37passive buyer at 1.3. You see that price
1:45:39is increasing. Now, maybe you change
1:45:41your mind. For example, now let's say
1:45:43you're like, "Oh crap, I'm probably not
1:45:45going to get my order filled at this
1:45:46price point. Let me add my passive
1:45:48order. Let's go to 1.5." And so now,
1:45:51let's say you place your order again at
1:45:531.5. You would be now sitting here in
1:45:56the order book. Now, let's say, for
1:45:57example, we get an aggressive seller
1:46:01step into the market at 1.7. And let's
1:46:03say this aggressive seller has 15 lots
1:46:07that it wants to transact. So that
1:46:10seller will transact those 15 lots to
1:46:13the most recent bits, right? The passive
1:46:15liquidity that sits in the bits. And so
1:46:17where would that be? Well, we're at 1.7.
1:46:20Let's say there was zero lots available
1:46:23at 1.7. Price would skip from 1.7 down
1:46:27to 1.6. Let's say there's no liquidity
1:46:30at 1.6. Price would skip back down to
1:46:321.5, right? And then you would see a
1:46:35wick form. Notice that there's a wick, a
1:46:37price. This represents the highest level
1:46:39that price has been at. Now we have that
1:46:40wick form. And so you're available at
1:46:431.5, right, for 10 lots. So now your 10
1:46:47lots get triggered. You get filled at
1:46:49your price that you wanted to get filled
1:46:51at. And price continues going lower to
1:46:53the next available liquidity. Let's say
1:46:54it's at 1.4 and let's say there are five
1:46:57lots available. Price would travel like
1:46:59so down to this 1.4 level. This candle
1:47:03would then become a bearish candle with
1:47:05a wick on the buy side. That's how a
1:47:07candle is formed. Now we're at 1.4,
1:47:09right? Which is where the aggressive
1:47:11seller got their entire position filled
1:47:13at. So they wanted to sell at 1.7
1:47:17and their entire order was filled and
1:47:20the the filling of that order was
1:47:22finished at 1.4, right? Giving them
1:47:25somewhere in the average fill value of
1:47:28around 155, something along those lines.
1:47:31That is essentially what we experience
1:47:32when we get slippage. You get slipped
1:47:35when there isn't the available liquidity
1:47:37for you at your specific point. Right?
1:47:39That's why we experience slippage. And
1:47:41this is how a market is made. That's how
1:47:43a candlestick is formed. That's how a
1:47:46candle goes up and down, up and down.
1:47:48Now, on a lower time frame, let's say
1:47:50for example, this was the daily candle
1:47:54that was forming. On a lower time frame,
1:47:56what's actually happening is price
1:47:58started at 1.5, right? and then it made
1:48:02its way up to 1.7 and then it traded its
1:48:06way back down to 1.4.
1:48:09And so on a daily time frame, you just
1:48:12get this one candle build now. But on a
1:48:14lower time frame, what we're seeing is
1:48:16what we've just gone through on a
1:48:19massive scale. So instead of it just
1:48:21being me and a couple of others bidding,
1:48:23we're talking about thousands, if not
1:48:25millions of different transactions
1:48:27coming in. And so now you can see how
1:48:29this becomes complicated between the
1:48:31supply and demand. And also how we see
1:48:34all of these small little ticks in price
1:48:37every second. That's because what is
1:48:39going on in this very simplified
1:48:41explanation that I've just walked you
1:48:42through is going on on a massive scale
1:48:45deep inside of the order book, right,
1:48:47with millions of market participants.
1:48:49And so that is how a candlestick is
1:48:51formed. And that is also how one
1:48:53candlestick is formed. If you zoom into
1:48:55that candlestick, you will see on the
1:48:56lower time frames, you'll see an entire
1:48:59narrative of price performing with
1:49:01structure and highs and lows and all
1:49:03this sort of stuff. That is how price
1:49:05moves. And all of this is simply the
1:49:09supply and the demand. The supply is the
1:49:12ask and the demand is the bid. And there
1:49:15are two different types. There is
1:49:17aggressive and there is passive. The
1:49:19aggressors attack the ask. If you're an
1:49:22aggressive buyer, you attack the ask.
1:49:23You don't wait for price to come to you.
1:49:25You go to price and you're willing to
1:49:27buy at that price right now. If you're a
1:49:29passive buyer, you're sitting and
1:49:31waiting for price to come to you. And
1:49:33vice versa. If you are an aggressive
1:49:36seller, right, you're attacking the bid.
1:49:38You're going to find the most recent
1:49:40buyer. You're showing up to him and
1:49:42you're presenting your offer to him. If
1:49:44you're a passive seller, you're waiting
1:49:46for the buyer to come and find you. And
1:49:47if they don't find you, no problem. I
1:49:49don't get filled on my position. If they
1:49:51do find me, I do. Right? That is the
1:49:53difference. And the price the aggressive
1:49:55participants have to pay is usually some
1:49:57form of slippage or could be some form
1:49:58of slippage. Okay. So, if all of that
1:50:00was maybe a little bit confusing, hang
1:50:02in there with me because I'm about to
1:50:04simplify it so much more. So, now we're
1:50:06going to walk through how to identify
1:50:08institutional levels of supply and
1:50:09demand in a simple price action chart.
1:50:12So, it's very simple. What we just
1:50:14explained is that price is always going
1:50:17from balance to out of balance. So how
1:50:20to identify supply and demand is very
1:50:23simple. In this instance, we can see
1:50:24that price is trading higher which means
1:50:26that demand is in control. Now all you
1:50:29need to identify a range in price
1:50:31followed by an aggressive expansion.
1:50:33This will give you a demand zone because
1:50:35what we can see here is that this range
1:50:37in price as we've already explained
1:50:40there is a relative equal level of
1:50:45supply and demand at this level. The
1:50:47reason that price is ranging so well is
1:50:49because buyers and sellers are agreeing
1:50:51on price at this level and a lot of
1:50:53transactions are able to take place.
1:50:56This is an area of balance, right? When
1:51:00price is like this, this is usually an
1:51:02area of balance. And then what happens
1:51:04out of nowhere price aggressively runs
1:51:07into one direction completely moving out
1:51:10of balance and into expansion. In this
1:51:13instance, that expansion is bullish. So
1:51:15price is trading higher which simply
1:51:17means there is more demand than there is
1:51:19supply. That is why price is
1:51:21continuously moving higher. Price is
1:51:24going to try to find sellers. Right?
1:51:26There is an abundance of buy liquidity
1:51:29that is available in the market. Price
1:51:31needs to go and balance that buy
1:51:33liquidity with sellside liquidity. And
1:51:36so price is hunting for sellers to fill
1:51:38their orders at. That is why we move out
1:51:40of balance into imbalance. Now what we
1:51:43do is we take the trading range in here
1:51:46that we were gravitating towards. We
1:51:48take the trading range that we were
1:51:49gravitating inside of. This was the
1:51:51previous area of fair balance. This area
1:51:53now becomes a demand zone. Right? Why?
1:51:57Because demand originated from here.
1:52:00This is where the area of demand
1:52:02originated from. And I'll tell you a
1:52:03little something. When you understand
1:52:05institutions, large level players, these
1:52:08are institutions that are trading with
1:52:11so much capital that it's very difficult
1:52:13for them to fill their orders. What I
1:52:15mean by that is we just explained how
1:52:17the market works. So if you was a
1:52:20institution and let's say you had, you
1:52:22know, 10,000 lots that you needed to
1:52:26trade and you had a target for those
1:52:2810,000 lots, you can't just go to the
1:52:30market and dump your 10,000 lots into
1:52:32the market and buy 10,000 lots of your
1:52:34dollar. Why? Because of your 10,000
1:52:36lots, you'll probably get some here,
1:52:38some here, some here, some here, some
1:52:39here, some here, some here, some here.
1:52:41Because it's such a large volume, you
1:52:43will end up taking the market from down
1:52:45here to up here for you to trade this
1:52:4810,000 lots. Because for you to buy
1:52:5010,000 lots, you need to find 10,000
1:52:52lots in supply. And there may not be
1:52:5510,000 lots in supply right here. There
1:52:57may be a,000 here, 1,000 here, 1,000
1:53:00here, 1,000 here, 1,000 here, 1,000
1:53:02here. So if you deploy it all right now,
1:53:03the price is just going to explode
1:53:05because it's just going to keep running
1:53:07up on the ask side to say, "Hey, who's
1:53:09got lots for me?" Essentially, it's
1:53:11going into discovery phase. Who's got
1:53:13the lots for me? I need to fill my
1:53:15trade. And this trader then who's
1:53:17trading these 10,000 lots inside of this
1:53:18institution gets a very bad fill. Let's
1:53:20say they wanted to fill, they have a
1:53:22target. They get into the markets in the
1:53:24morning. They say, "Hey, today my
1:53:26objective is to fill 10,000 lots at one
1:53:29EU, right?$1." And if they just dump all
1:53:32their order in at one, they'll probably
1:53:35get their average order value at let's
1:53:39say for example 1.5. That's a terrible
1:53:42job. So they didn't hit their target of
1:53:44getting filled at one. They got fil.5
1:53:46because they dumped all their liquidity
1:53:47in. Now instead what these institutions
1:53:50will do, they will find an area of
1:53:52balance where price is accepting and
1:53:54what they will do is they will slowly
1:53:57sneak their orders into this area of
1:54:00balance. They'll place a th00and in
1:54:01here, wait a little bit, price finds
1:54:03balance, a th00and in here, price shoots
1:54:05up, it's respected, we find more
1:54:07balance, they'll put a,000 in. And so
1:54:09they load up in these areas. This is the
1:54:12load up phase for a large institution to
1:54:14fill a large order. That's the only way
1:54:16that they're going to get all of their
1:54:18order filled at the price they want it
1:54:20to be filled at. And then once their
1:54:21order is filled at that level, that is
1:54:23when their job is complete. And so in
1:54:26these areas of ranges, this is where you
1:54:29will see institutions build upon price.
1:54:31And then let's say that trader was on
1:54:34the right train, right? Price then
1:54:36extrapolates into this direction. It
1:54:38expands into this bullish direction. Now
1:54:41this area of price holds a level of
1:54:44demand because there is a lot of demand
1:54:47for price at this level, right? As
1:54:49clearly seen. And the fact that price
1:54:51aggressively expands so high insinuates
1:54:55that all of the demand was not filled at
1:54:57the best available price. So let's say
1:54:59in another scenario, this same trader
1:55:01with the same goal of filling 10,000
1:55:04lots at this level, which is what
1:55:06happens most of the time. They get that
1:55:07target and price is in balance and
1:55:10whilst price is inside of this balance
1:55:12maybe he only gets to expend 6,500 lots
1:55:17and then all of a sudden because he was
1:55:19buying so much there wasn't any sell
1:55:21liquidity at this level anymore. Sellers
1:55:23become exhausted. There's no one willing
1:55:25to sell this level anymore and so price
1:55:27goes into search for sellers. That
1:55:29trader is not happy about trying to fill
1:55:32the rest of his order in this price leg.
1:55:34So what he does is he waits and he sets
1:55:37himself as a passive buyer at this same
1:55:39price point for his remaining 3,500
1:55:43lots. What happens? Price goes outside
1:55:45of the balance range. Price usually
1:55:47gravitates back toward the balance
1:55:48range. And when price hits this level,
1:55:51guess who is there waiting? Mr. 10,000
1:55:53lots is still not triggered his whole
1:55:56order. So when price comes back in and
1:55:58sellers are moving through the price,
1:55:59there is just this large 3,500 lot order
1:56:03holding this price until eventually the
1:56:05sellers who were trying to push price
1:56:07lower and sell at these levels get
1:56:09exhausted. Once they get exhausted, the
1:56:12sell side of the order book becomes thin
1:56:14and buyers instinctively just push price
1:56:18higher and that just happens as an
1:56:20automatic process. That is why these
1:56:22demand zones when you find the correct
1:56:24ones they hold and you will know it's an
1:56:26institutional level of supply and demand
1:56:28if you see these large ranges and then
1:56:31massive expansions out of that level.
1:56:33That is how you actually identify an
1:56:35area of institutional supply and demand.
1:56:37Now let me show you this in a real
1:56:39example. Okay, let's take this price
1:56:41chart here. What do we see that has
1:56:44happened right here? I will tell you
1:56:46very simply what we see is that price
1:56:48was in a range of balance
1:56:50in a range of balance and then price
1:56:54boomed up into here moving price out of
1:56:57balance that it's as simple as that we
1:56:59had fair value and we moved out of fair
1:57:02value. Who is dominating in this
1:57:03transaction? Obviously buyers, right?
1:57:06Demand outweighs supply. That's why
1:57:08price has gone and traded higher, right?
1:57:11So then this level in here would be your
1:57:16demand level, right? And this is how I
1:57:19would draw it. This in here would be
1:57:21your area of demand. And so you can draw
1:57:25this across here. And notice that price
1:57:27goes from searching, failing to find new
1:57:31accepted balance, and it comes back into
1:57:35this area of demand. And then what
1:57:38happens at this level? Here is our
1:57:40demand. Here is our expansion out. Price
1:57:42comes back to this level, right? Sellers
1:57:45are trying to attack this level. Failure
1:57:47to do so. And then price has the
1:57:49continuation expansion from this area of
1:57:52price. This area of price is very
1:57:55clearly and obviously an institutional
1:57:58area of demand. Okay. Now, what I'm
1:58:00going to show you is how to identify
1:58:03high probability supply and demand.
1:58:06Simply put, supply and demand zones are
1:58:09everywhere in the market. How can we
1:58:10truly understand which ones have a
1:58:13higher chance of working than others?
1:58:15And the way that I have found through
1:58:17years of the data that I have gathered
1:58:19on this specific concept, I found one
1:58:21thing stands out above all else about
1:58:24how to truly understand whether a supply
1:58:26and demand zone will actually work and
1:58:28that is structure. Institutional order
1:58:32flow, right? The actual market structure
1:58:34of price. And so notice in this price
1:58:37level here, what do we have? Price
1:58:39starts up here, right? Price comes down.
1:58:43We have a low. There's a low in price.
1:58:46Price puts in a lower high. This high is
1:58:49lower than the previous high. That's
1:58:51already a bearish indication. Price then
1:58:53puts in a lower low. This low is lower
1:58:56than the previous low. At this point in
1:58:58time, it is very clear and obvious that
1:59:00price is bearish. So, the overall flow
1:59:02of orders are bearish. So, we have a
1:59:04lower low. Price comes in again. Price
1:59:06puts in a lower high. or in fact price
1:59:08doesn't put in a lower high, price
1:59:10liquidates the high. That's an even
1:59:12clearer sign for me. When price takes
1:59:14out an old high, but with a wick and we
1:59:18then close down here, that to me is a
1:59:21massive indication of market reversal.
1:59:23So we have bearish trend plus a market
1:59:25reversal indication and then we have
1:59:28another take of the low. So when I'm
1:59:30coming into the market each day, I want
1:59:31to understand just a simple current
1:59:34trend. So we have a swing high and we
1:59:36have a swing low down here. Now I find
1:59:38that the best way to do things, right?
1:59:40Let's say I play price out like this.
1:59:42What you'll notice here, there is both a
1:59:44demand zone and a supply zone, right?
1:59:46Very clearly. How do I know that? Well,
1:59:48you can see that price was in a very
1:59:51tight range in here and then had a very
1:59:53aggressive sell-off. So this is going to
1:59:55be our supply zone. You can just take a
1:59:57low to a high inside that range and pull
2:00:00that across. That's going to be your
2:00:01supply zone. Then at the bottom of this
2:00:03supply zone, price finds another range.
2:00:06We'll take the low to the high of the
2:00:07range and then we have aggressive buy
2:00:10out of that level. So we have demand in
2:00:12here and we have supply in here. And so
2:00:15let's say the supply trader has their
2:00:18levels in here and they want to take out
2:00:21this low. And let's say the demand
2:00:23trader has their levels in here and
2:00:25wants to take out the sellers. Right?
2:00:28This person's betting on demand. This
2:00:30person is betting on supply. Now the
2:00:33higher probability of who is going to
2:00:35win this battle is the one who is
2:00:37trading with the trend. Right? Very
2:00:39simply put. So the trend here is
2:00:41bearish. So therefore the higher
2:00:43probability is that the supply level is
2:00:45the one that holds and the demand level
2:00:48is the one that gets traded through. Now
2:00:50this demand might hold momentarily
2:00:53but eventually
2:00:56this demand zone will lose and that's
2:00:58what we see happen in this example.
2:01:04We see that the supply zone is reached
2:01:14on multiple occasions. This supply zone
2:01:16gets reached. We reach in, buyers try to
2:01:20attack it again and both of the times
2:01:23they fail. Now we find ourselves
2:01:24approaching this demand level. Demand
2:01:27reacts and immediately trade straight
2:01:30through it. And so if we remove both of
2:01:32these, we will see that the supply
2:01:35that's in alignment with the trend will
2:01:37always outweigh the demand that is
2:01:39against the trend. Here's another
2:01:41example that happens shortly after. What
2:01:43we can see here is that price is very
2:01:45clearly bullish, right? We have a break
2:01:48of structure
2:01:49across here. And so we have our swing
2:01:53low and our swing high. Notice that
2:01:56price in general in this area is in
2:01:58pretty much a balanced price range. At
2:02:00some point in time, price becomes out of
2:02:04balance, right? We've gone from the
2:02:06range of this level to out of this
2:02:09level. What we'll notice is that there's
2:02:12this massive range and the expansion.
2:02:14And so you can literally take right
2:02:16whatever of this range you would like to
2:02:18take. You can take this entire level if
2:02:20you would like to. This is going to be
2:02:22your demand zone. And again very clearly
2:02:24if you're a buyer of this demand zone
2:02:27and simply just taking out the highs
2:02:28again obviously I do not trade with a
2:02:301:1 risk-to-reward ratio. It's just the
2:02:32purpose of showing you. You'll notice
2:02:34that price comes straight into our
2:02:36demand zone and then straight out of the
2:02:38demand zone. Notice that again even this
2:02:40in of itself right price has had this
2:02:42long range for a while and now it's
2:02:44expanded out above this highs. Even this
2:02:46entire zone in general this is an
2:02:48institutional level of demand. And so
2:02:51it's expected that this level will
2:02:53probably hold itself and continue
2:02:56trading higher from this specific level.
2:03:06Right? And that's ultimately what
2:03:08happens because this entire level in
2:03:10here really acts as a demand range that
2:03:13builds up, we expand out, we come back
2:03:15in, we build up, we expand out. Okay.
2:03:18Now, we'll put everything together and
2:03:20walk through how we will actually enter
2:03:22and exit using everything that we have
2:03:25just learned here in this video. So,
2:03:26before we actually even identify supply
2:03:28and demand, as we explained, how to
2:03:30identify high probability supply and
2:03:33demand is based actually on the market
2:03:35structure. So the first thing that you
2:03:37must do when you come into the market is
2:03:39identify your current trend. And so I
2:03:41like to use the 15-minute time frame on
2:03:43Euro US dollar. And so what we can see
2:03:44is that price was actually very bullish.
2:03:46Right? We see that price puts in a high,
2:03:48a low, higher high, higher lows. Right?
2:03:51It's putting in consistently higher
2:03:52prices until eventually we have a high
2:03:54in here that puts in a low down here
2:03:56that puts in a new high up here. Right?
2:03:59So this is a bullish break of structure.
2:04:01At this point, price was very bullish
2:04:02and then price breaks those lows down
2:04:05here and we actually shift bearish. So,
2:04:08we were bullish and now we're actually
2:04:10bearish. The high in here and the low
2:04:12down here. So, first things first, we
2:04:15take out this and we're going to put our
2:04:16low in here and our high in here. Now,
2:04:18to me, nothing matters other than me
2:04:22being a seller of this market. And how I
2:04:25want to do that is first identify the
2:04:27trend, which we've just done. Second,
2:04:28then identify the area of supply. And
2:04:31for me, in this instance, the supply is
2:04:33obvious, right? What do we have? We have
2:04:35a very rangebound price before
2:04:37aggressive expansion. So, we have
2:04:39everything we just looked for, a range,
2:04:41and then expansion. So, inside of our
2:04:43range is our institutional area of
2:04:45supply. But I'm not going to just try to
2:04:48take this level, right? Cuz I would be
2:04:49basically trading this, my stop loss
2:04:51here, and my execution up in here,
2:04:54right? That's not really what I'm
2:04:56looking for. 1 to 1.57 risk-to-reward.
2:04:58That's not what I want. I don't want to
2:04:59risk $1,000 to make $1,570.
2:05:02No way. So, what I do is I mark out
2:05:05these zones like this, right? I will
2:05:07just mark out this as a supply zone,
2:05:10right? Very easy area of supply and I
2:05:13will just wait for price to get into
2:05:15that zone. So, here you can see that
2:05:16price gets into my zone. And instead of
2:05:18just trading from this level, right,
2:05:20which is what we just looked at, instead
2:05:22of just taking this trade, which is very
2:05:23lowrisisk reward, what I will do is I
2:05:26will wait for confirmation. And so I
2:05:28will go to a 1 minute time frame and
2:05:30I'll look at the market structure on the
2:05:31one minute time frame. Notice that as
2:05:33price makes its way up to this gray box,
2:05:35which is our supply. Notice that the one
2:05:37minute time frame is very bullish,
2:05:40right? And so what I wait for is I wait
2:05:42for a shift. I wait for price to tell me
2:05:45that this area of price is confirmed.
2:05:47And so price is bullish, right? And then
2:05:50eventually when price shifts, that would
2:05:53be my confirmation. And at this point,
2:05:56that's when I can be a confirmed seller
2:05:58of price. And so now I need to find my
2:06:01level. And my level is very simple. I'll
2:06:03go to a 5m minute time frame and I will
2:06:05just use this specific order block,
2:06:08right?
2:06:10This final buy to sell because this is
2:06:13the area that everything changed. This
2:06:15is the area that price went from demand
2:06:18in control to supply in control. And I
2:06:22want to find the last level of demand
2:06:25that was in control and where the supply
2:06:28came in. And that's what I want to use.
2:06:30I want to use this level as my entry
2:06:32point, right? And so that becomes my
2:06:34entry just like this. And I'm pretty
2:06:38sure, yeah, price doesn't even hit it.
2:06:43So I wouldn't even got to the trade. And
2:06:45so this tells me that the order flow has
2:06:47shifted because remember the order book
2:06:49that we showed earlier. What we're
2:06:51seeing here is that demand is
2:06:52consistently taking control, right?
2:06:54Price is just going higher and higher
2:06:56and higher in the order book until
2:06:59sellers take control, right? Which is
2:07:02this high here. And then all I need to
2:07:04really do is just find the area. You can
2:07:06literally just use the entire range. I
2:07:09can take the low to the high of this
2:07:12level like this. draw this across and I
2:07:13can use that as my entry point. That can
2:07:15be my entry, right? There's no problem.
2:07:17That's a five pip stop loss. And so now
2:07:18notice the difference. Nothing changes.
2:07:20I'm taking the same target, right? And
2:07:23pretty much all of my trades are 1 to5
2:07:25riskreward. And so nothing's changed.
2:07:27It's the exact same idea, right? We are
2:07:29bearish. This is our area of supply, but
2:07:32instead of taking this trade where I
2:07:34would just open the trade here and put
2:07:35my stop loss up here and take out this
2:07:37low for a one, I'm waiting for
2:07:40confirmation. So, this makes my supply
2:07:42and demand even higher probability
2:07:44because I'm not just taking it. I'm
2:07:46waiting for price to come in and clearly
2:07:48reject this level. You can see we come
2:07:50in bullish and now we're shifting
2:07:53bearish. You can see the clear
2:07:54rejection. Once we get the clear
2:07:56rejection, then I take my entry and I
2:07:58just do the same thing that I would in
2:08:00this one, but instead of getting in
2:08:02here, stops here, I get in here and
2:08:04stops here. It's a much more refined
2:08:06area of price. And we can see how that
2:08:08plays out by looking at the 5m minute
2:08:10time frame.
2:08:12It's a beautiful entry in price starts
2:08:15moving away.
2:08:19Even in here as well, notice what's
2:08:21happening, right? This supply and demand
2:08:23is existing everywhere. Price sells off.
2:08:25Price finds a new level of acceptance,
2:08:28right? Price ranges and then expands.
2:08:30Every time frame this is occurring. What
2:08:32happens? Price expands out. Price comes
2:08:34back into this supply and price starts
2:08:36moving away once again
2:08:46and eventually we run through and this
2:08:48supply zone holds the entire time and
2:08:50that would be your trade idea complete.
Order Block
2:08:56Order block is essentially an area of
2:08:59price where there are large resting
2:09:01orders waiting to be triggered. And so
2:09:05when you see price trade into these
2:09:08areas into these order blocks, you will
2:09:11be expecting to have some reaction out
2:09:14of that order block. Now the key is in
2:09:16selecting the correct order blocks.
2:09:19Okay. So how do we actually identify an
2:09:23order block? Here's what you want to be
2:09:26looking for. Essentially, you want to
2:09:28find number one, the first thing is
2:09:30where do you see a large amount of
2:09:33volume kick into the market?
2:09:36Essentially, that can be identified as a
2:09:38very aggressive candle either in one
2:09:40direction or the other. So, for this
2:09:42example of identifying a bullish order
2:09:44block, we can see that we have this
2:09:47aggressive bullish candle that moves to
2:09:50the upside. From there on out, what you
2:09:52want to be identifying is this final
2:09:56candle just before that impulsive move,
2:09:58right? We call this the sell to buy
2:10:01candle. [snorts] This is what is going
2:10:03to be characterized as your order block.
2:10:06It's essentially the area of price that
2:10:08first sells into the buy and then we
2:10:11have the aggressive move out of it. Now,
2:10:15to identify this, your order block
2:10:17should always have a fair value gap.
2:10:20ultimately an area of imbalance. What we
2:10:22can see here is this first candle right
2:10:25here followed by the second impulsive
2:10:28bullish candle right here and then we
2:10:31have one more bearish candle. Now the
2:10:34key here is to notice that the first
2:10:36candle that wick the highest wick of the
2:10:40first candle right in here does not meet
2:10:43with the third wick. Right? So we have
2:10:46one candle, two candles, three candles.
2:10:48this wick does not meet this wick and
2:10:50that leaves a gap, right? A fair value
2:10:53gap. If you can notice a fair value gap,
2:10:55then the likelihood is there is an order
2:10:57block somewhere around that level. And
2:11:00how you identify that is you just want
2:11:02to use the final down candle before that
2:11:06up candle in a bullish order block
2:11:09scenario. Or what you can do is if you
2:11:12want to identify a bearish order block,
2:11:14essentially what you want to be looking
2:11:15for is the final buy before you have the
2:11:18aggressive sell candle. But remember the
2:11:21candles of the first and third must not
2:11:24meet. [music] In this scenario right
2:11:26here, you can see very clearly that this
2:11:29first candle and this candle right here,
2:11:31they both touch each other. Therefore,
2:11:33that does not give you a fair value gap.
2:11:36Therefore, that does not give you a
2:11:38bearish order block. So, if we can just
2:11:40continue playing price out, what you
2:11:43will notice is
2:11:47we have a buy candle in here, right? And
2:11:51then we have a sell candle, then we have
2:11:54another sell candle, and then we have a
2:11:55third sell candle. Now, again, we want
2:11:57to be identifying this candle right here
2:12:00and this candle [music] right here. That
2:12:03is essentially your fair value gap. And
2:12:05wherever there is a fair value gap,
2:12:07there is going to be an order block in
2:12:09there somewhere. And so how we want to
2:12:11identify that is just looking at the
2:12:13final buy to sell candle that forms just
2:12:17before that aggressive momentum. And
2:12:19what you can do is you can use the
2:12:21bottom wick of this and the top wick of
2:12:25this and that will create your bearish
2:12:28order block. Okay. So, here are my three
2:12:31rules that I go to when I'm trying to
2:12:34mark out high probability order blocks.
2:12:38So, rule number one, and arguably the
2:12:41most important rule, is you must be
2:12:44prot. Time and time again, traders are
2:12:46trying to trade bearish order blocks
2:12:48when the order flow is bullish. It makes
2:12:51no sense. So, make sure that you have
2:12:53this external swing structure aligned
2:12:57like this. And you can see that price
2:12:59makes low high higher low meaning this
2:13:03low here is higher than the previous low
2:13:06and then we have a higher high. So at
2:13:08that point it's already indicated that
2:13:10price is bullish. We have this bullish
2:13:12breakup structure like so. And then
2:13:14price is going to respect this area in
2:13:17here and I can guarantee you there is
2:13:19some type of order block inside of here
2:13:22that price then is able to react from.
2:13:25So that is number one. Make sure you are
2:13:29protrend.
2:13:31Number two is you want to wait for some
2:13:33sort of run on liquidity from that sell
2:13:37to buy level. So what we can see here is
2:13:39we have this bullish structure and then
2:13:41as price pulls back you can see it puts
2:13:43these internal lows in. Now notice that
2:13:46this final sell right here, this final
2:13:50sell to buy actually causes a run on
2:13:54liquidity. So we actually run on the
2:13:57lows in here, right? So we have a
2:13:59liquidation in here. So you want to see
2:14:01a run on some sort of liquidity before
2:14:04that order block is formed. And then
2:14:06don't forget, make sure that this order
2:14:08block, this sell to buy has a fair value
2:14:11gap from candle one to candle 3. There's
2:14:14your fair value gap. Great. Now you know
2:14:17how to identify your order block. Now
2:14:20final one and my golden rule number
2:14:23three is make sure that that order block
2:14:26was something that led to a break of
2:14:29structure. That order block itself
2:14:31doesn't have to break structure but
2:14:33there has to be a break of structure in
2:14:35that price leg. For example, what we see
2:14:37right here is now we are bullish, right?
2:14:39We have our swing low down here and we
2:14:42have our swing high up in this region.
2:14:45So, as long as we stay inside of that
2:14:48price leg, this order block is valid.
2:14:51But if we do something like this, for
2:14:52example, let's say we now pulled back
2:14:55like this and then we went and did
2:14:57higher high and we had a new break of
2:14:59structure. Well, this order blocker
2:15:02becomes valid. What we'd actually be
2:15:04then looking at is probably some sort of
2:15:07sell to buy
2:15:09inside of this price leg in here that
2:15:11leads to a breakout structure. So make
2:15:14sure that the break of structure has a
2:15:17order block inside of. Make sure the
2:15:19order block you're looking for has a
2:15:21breakup structure inside of it. So from
2:15:24there, that is the three rules on how to
2:15:26identify the order block. And if you
2:15:27have something like this where you have
2:15:28a protrend move, right? We have higher
2:15:30highs, higher lows, higher highs. Price
2:15:32pulls back, gives a run on liquidity,
2:15:35this bearish sell to then buy, gives the
2:15:37engulfing candle and then break some
2:15:40sort of structure. that is a high
2:15:42probability area for price to then be
2:15:44able to come back to something like this
2:15:46before putting in some sort of high
2:15:49high. And this is exactly where you
2:15:52would trade from. So let's take a look
2:15:54at what this order block scenario looks
2:15:57like in the markets themselves. Here we
2:16:00are and what we can see right here is
2:16:03that price is bullish. So step number
2:16:06one is where is your directional bias?
2:16:08You can see we had this low in here,
2:16:10puts in a high. Price pulls back, right?
2:16:14Respects what? Respects the previous
2:16:17bullish order block that we were talking
2:16:19about. And then what does price do?
2:16:21Price then has this aggressive move out
2:16:24of this price range. Breaks structure,
2:16:27right? We have a break of structure to
2:16:28the upside like this. So there we have
2:16:32our protrend. We're trading with the
2:16:34trend. We have our breaker structure
2:16:36that was come from this bullish order
2:16:39block in here. And then finally, what
2:16:40else do we have? We have our run on
2:16:43liquidity. Right? You can very clearly
2:16:45see that we have a old low in here. Then
2:16:48we have this final sell into this
2:16:50liquidity, relative equal lows, sell
2:16:53into liquidity, and then aggressive buy
2:16:55out. So, we've ticked all three boxes.
2:16:57We're protrend, right? We're clearly in
2:16:59a bullish trend. We have taken a run on
2:17:03liquidity and then we've broken
2:17:05structure. So that means that our order
2:17:07block is inside of the structural price
2:17:10leg that we're currently trading inside
2:17:12of our current trading range. Then what
2:17:14you can do is you can map out your area
2:17:17of order block, your bullish order
2:17:19block, and then you can just wait and
2:17:20see how price reacts.
2:17:22So you can see price has a reaction, a
2:17:25bullish reaction, drops down deeper to
2:17:27mitigate and then begins aggressively
2:17:30advancing out of that level and takes
2:17:33out the continuation. Right? Another
2:17:35break of structure just continuing in
2:17:37the overall trend that price is
2:17:39currently trading in. Now we're going to
2:17:41take everything that we've just learned
2:17:42about the basics of order blocks and
2:17:44we're going to apply that into my
2:17:46step-by-step profitable order block
2:17:48trading strategy. I'm going to give you
2:17:50exact rundown of a trade that I took
2:17:52using the exact strategy that I'm going
2:17:54to be sharing with you. Okay. So now
2:17:56let's walk through this trade on Euro US
2:18:00dollar during London session. So first
2:18:02thing I'm going to do is I'm going to
2:18:03switch on my session indicator. This
2:18:06allows me to outline the exact sessions.
2:18:08So you know that this is during the
2:18:11London session. Now step number one is
2:18:14we need to identify what is the trend
2:18:17direction. And so you can very clearly
2:18:19see that price was aggressively bearish.
2:18:21We put in a lower low, a lower high, a
2:18:24lower low, giving us a break of
2:18:27structure to the downside, followed then
2:18:31by a change of character. So you can see
2:18:33we've changed the trend here. We were
2:18:35indeed bearish, putting in a series of
2:18:37lower lows, and then we've put in a
2:18:39higher high, meaning this high that
2:18:41we've just placed in here is higher than
2:18:42the previous high. Therefore, we have
2:18:44now shifted bullish. So, we no longer
2:18:47want to be looking at any bearish order
2:18:49blocks or anything of that nature. We
2:18:50want to be paying attention to the
2:18:52present moment trend, right? So, we want
2:18:55to make sure that we are trading inside
2:18:57of this trading range. So, our bias is
2:19:00indeed bullish. We are looking to take
2:19:02long positions. Now, step number two is
2:19:05I need to find an order block that makes
2:19:07sense to trade from, right? And this is
2:19:10going to be my point of interest, my
2:19:12higher time frame point of interest.
2:19:14Right? So what we want to be looking at
2:19:15is this particular session in here. This
2:19:18is Asia in this blue box from here is
2:19:20from 8 till midnight EST. This
2:19:24represents the Asia session range. Now
2:19:27as you guys know the highs and the lows
2:19:30of this Asia session range are extremely
2:19:32liquid. [music]
2:19:33So what we want to see is coming into
2:19:36our London session we want to have a
2:19:37clear directional bias which I have. I
2:19:40am bullish. I want to have a clear point
2:19:43of interest below Asia session low. If
2:19:47I'm buying, I want to be buying below
2:19:49that Asia session low. Right? So, where
2:19:52in here can you see that we have a clear
2:19:57area of order block? Well, you can see
2:19:59very clearly in here, right? This final
2:20:02sell to buy candle that has a fair value
2:20:05gap. You can see the first candle in
2:20:07here does not meet with the third candle
2:20:09in here. That is our clear and obvious
2:20:11fair value gap. You can see that it runs
2:20:13an area of liquidity, right? So the
2:20:15final cell runs the previous candle's
2:20:18low which is a run of liquidity and then
2:20:22we have this aggressive push out. It's
2:20:24inside of the area. It's inside of the
2:20:28protrend move, right? We've already had
2:20:30our breakout structure. This order block
2:20:32is inside of that breaker structure
2:20:34price leg. And what we want to see is
2:20:37price all back liquidate Asia low drop
2:20:41into here and then when I get into this
2:20:44area I don't want to just take a risk
2:20:47entry on here right and besides even if
2:20:49I was to take an entry on here and
2:20:51target our target which is our Asia
2:20:54session high that's going to give me 3.3
2:20:57riskreward which might seem decent to a
2:20:59lot of you guys but some of you who know
2:21:01and have been around here for a long
2:21:02time you know that my minimum risk to
2:21:05reward is 125 right so what I want to do
2:21:09is I want to get into this area then I
2:21:11want to drop down to the 1 minute time
2:21:13frame and then I want to take my entry
2:21:15there so let's see how that plays out
2:21:18first thing is waiting for price to get
2:21:20into this area and there is the
2:21:22objective complete right we have equal
2:21:24lows in here we have Asia low in here
2:21:26which is a prime area for a sweep of
2:21:29liquidity we've now run the liquidity we
2:21:32have our point of interest we are
2:21:33protrend looking for buys. Time for our
2:21:36entry confirmation. So, what we're going
2:21:38to do is we're going to drop down to the
2:21:411 minute time frame. And now we need to
2:21:43establish what is our directional trend
2:21:46at the moment. So, you can quite clearly
2:21:48see that we are bearish, right? We're in
2:21:50this heavy downtrend. And we can see
2:21:52that this was our swing low. Price
2:21:54pulled up, swing high, then we went
2:21:56lower low, right? Lower low, lower high.
2:22:00And what you can just notice price has
2:22:03just what? Run on liquidity. This low,
2:22:07this low that was supporting this
2:22:09bullish move up has now been liquidated.
2:22:12So what we would need to see is a
2:22:13realignment, a market structure shift
2:22:15above this high, displacing this high.
2:22:19And then that would be our confirmation
2:22:21that the one minute time frame is now
2:22:23ready to go in the same direction as
2:22:26that 30 minute time frame. So if we just
2:22:28play price out,
2:22:31there is your displacement, right?
2:22:33There's your market structure shift and
2:22:34your displacement. Price is putting in a
2:22:36series of lower lows, lower highs,
2:22:37liquidation of the low, run of the high,
2:22:40giving us a realignment, displacing
2:22:43above the previous high. And now what do
2:22:46we want to see? We want to see an area
2:22:49of demand. We want to see bullish order
2:22:52block. So what do we need to see? Well,
2:22:54we need to see this move right here.
2:22:56this sell to buy that breaks structure
2:23:00that's coming from our higher time frame
2:23:02point of interest that has taken an area
2:23:04of liquidity. Right? Any low or any
2:23:07higher an opposite example is a run of
2:23:09liquidity. But not only is this a run of
2:23:11liquidity, this down here is also a key
2:23:15run on liquidity. So we had a run on
2:23:17liquidity here. Price pushes up, reacts
2:23:20to this bearish order block, pushes
2:23:22down, and then buyers outweigh the
2:23:25market, giving us a sell that liquidates
2:23:27price and then break structure to the
2:23:30upside. Now, we just want to look at
2:23:32this as our bullish order block. You can
2:23:35see it has a fair value gap. Candle one,
2:23:38candle three doesn't meet, we have a
2:23:40fair value gap. That is where we want to
2:23:42look at taking our position from. want
2:23:45to put our stop loss below this low in
2:23:47here. And I know what you're thinking.
2:23:49That is a pretty tight stop loss. And it
2:23:52is. So, let's continue and see where are
2:23:55we going to take this trade to. Well, we
2:23:58want to always be trading in alignment
2:24:01with the trend. So, if we know that
2:24:03we're bullish, we want to just take
2:24:05price to the next logical high that
2:24:08makes sense. So, we want to go for a
2:24:09minimum of 1 to five, right? So, there's
2:24:11our 1 to5. There is our displacement.
2:24:14Now it's time to enter. And this is
2:24:16where we're going to be entering from.
2:24:18So price continues trading continues
2:24:21trading higher. Price ranges.
2:24:24Okay, price is now at this point
2:24:26creating what? Creating a range. What do
2:24:29we understand about ranges in price? A
2:24:31range in price is creating liquidity on
2:24:33both sides of the market. So when you
2:24:35see a range occur like this, that is
2:24:39ultimately building liquidity on the buy
2:24:41side and on the sell side. And what
2:24:43you'll see a lot of times happen is
2:24:45you'll see a run first on the buy side
2:24:47liquidity inducing all of these buyers.
2:24:50Everybody is now looking to buy because
2:24:52everybody's perceiving this as a
2:24:54breakout and then price runs the actual
2:24:57liquidity that it wants to run and then
2:24:59goes into it the direction that it
2:25:02really wants to trade into. So pay
2:25:04attention for that schematic right
2:25:06there. When we break this down, right,
2:25:08what do we see? We have equal highs
2:25:10across here. Okay,
2:25:13price runs the equal highs. What do we
2:25:16have across here? We have relatively
2:25:18equal lows.
2:25:20So price has now run the buy side of the
2:25:22liquidity. Okay, now it's created what?
2:25:26More equal lows across here. Stacked
2:25:29lows, equal lows here, lows here. again
2:25:32running by side liquidity. So this trade
2:25:35becomes invalid if we break this high.
2:25:38If we hit the takerit before we have
2:25:42been tagged in obviously this trade then
2:25:44becomes obsolete. There's no need to
2:25:46take it anymore. However, if it doesn't
2:25:48then we still trade it as is. So there
2:25:52you can see there is the aggressive
2:25:55liquidation of this low. And here
2:25:57there's your liquidation. So at this
2:25:59point price may or may not tag you in
2:26:02again just keeping the order open.
2:26:05So price does tag in. And if for
2:26:07whatever reason you would have removed
2:26:09your order then you can pay attention to
2:26:11the details by reconfirming this area of
2:26:14price. Because what do we notice in
2:26:16here? Well, you can see as price pushes
2:26:19up right and then break structure these
2:26:22tiny little swing points are dictating
2:26:25the order flow. And so you can see that
2:26:27price is printing this lower internal
2:26:31trend
2:26:33right even again you can see it's
2:26:36printing this lower internal trend we
2:26:38have low high lower low high lower low
2:26:43high liquidation
2:26:46and then what do we have? It's the exact
2:26:49same thing over and over and over again.
2:26:51Right? So we have had no breaker
2:26:53structure yet. So we would need to see
2:26:55some sort of breakout structure.
2:26:58But there when you have your breakout
2:26:59structure, what do you now have? Right?
2:27:02Again, price I'm going to zoom in to pay
2:27:05attention to detail. Right? Again, these
2:27:08are the little details that people
2:27:10overlook. What do we see? We see that
2:27:12price is printing lower lows, lower
2:27:15highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower
2:27:17lows. Liquidation,
2:27:20higher high. Right? There is our order
2:27:24block, a bullish order block that breaks
2:27:27structure number one. It breaks
2:27:30structure. It liquidates and it's
2:27:33aligned with the overall trend. So if
2:27:36for whatever reason you wasn't able to
2:27:37capitalize on the original move, you can
2:27:40put another position in. I would cover
2:27:42the same stop, right? So stops on this
2:27:45same low in here just in case it does
2:27:47want to come a little bit deeper. And
2:27:49then where do you target? You're just
2:27:51looking at the exact same area because
2:27:53the bias is to take price into this
2:27:55area. That's a 1 to 6.85 then keep
2:27:59playing price out. So price aggressively
2:28:01moves out of this level and then
2:28:03eventually price runs to full take
2:28:05profit with two potential profitable
2:28:08positions. One for one to five
2:28:09risk-to-reward and one to 6.85
2:28:12risktoreward.
Double your Risk Reward
2:28:16The first winning order block is what I
2:28:19call the sweep shift. It's very very
2:28:21simple to understand. Essentially,
2:28:23imagine you have price action that's
2:28:24trending in an upward direction. So, we
2:28:26have a swing low down here, swing high,
2:28:29swing low, higher high, higher low,
2:28:33higher high. So, we're bullish. And then
2:28:35we change character. We shift from
2:28:37bullish to bearish. Well, in this
2:28:40process, what you want to look for is
2:28:42the area of price where we sweep this
2:28:45old high here and then aggressively
2:28:48shift below this low down here. If you
2:28:51can find an order block at the high of
2:28:53this price leg, that is a high quality
2:28:55order block. From there, you can
2:28:57essentially expect price to have some
2:28:58kind of retracement into your order
2:29:00block. And there's a likelihood that
2:29:03this order block will hold and you can
2:29:04trade from this order block and
2:29:06essentially just target the next weak
2:29:09swing low. So as you can see we have a
2:29:11swing high up here. We put in a low and
2:29:13then we put in a new higher high. Now
2:29:15we're coming for a pullback, right? It's
2:29:17over three candles. So it meets my
2:29:18criteria. Then you can see we break this
2:29:20high. So my current swing structure,
2:29:23this is my swing low and we are still
2:29:25bullish, right? Note that this is Asia
2:29:28session high. So it's a highly liquid
2:29:30area of price. Then what we can see is
2:29:32that we aggressively break below this
2:29:35low. So what we have is a break of
2:29:37structure on the buy side followed by a
2:29:40bearish change of character on the sell
2:29:43side. Then as you can see you want to
2:29:45identify the last area that caused the
2:29:48sweep and the shift. And in this
2:29:50instance is this final buy candle before
2:29:52the sell-off. This right here would be
2:29:55my order block of choice and an order
2:29:57block that I have consistently seen to
2:29:59work. And then essentially you can
2:30:01literally just place your entry off this
2:30:03order block level and all you have to do
2:30:05is just target the next swing low. And
2:30:09this has a very high success rate. Now
2:30:12let's break down winning order block
2:30:14number two. And this is what I call the
2:30:16continuation trap. Very simple model.
2:30:18Again what you can see here is we have
2:30:20bearish price delivery. So we have a
2:30:22high, we have a low, a lower high, and a
2:30:24lower low. And then we shift bullish. So
2:30:26now at this point in time, my swing low
2:30:29is down here. And my swing high is up
2:30:31here. But what you can see is as price
2:30:33starts to pull back into this area, we
2:30:35have some bearish internal structure,
2:30:38right? Internal low, internal lower
2:30:40high, lower low, lower high, and then
2:30:43lower low. At some point in time, if
2:30:45price is expected to trade above the
2:30:47high up here, which it is, then we need
2:30:50to wait for an internal change of
2:30:52character. That's the shift from bearish
2:30:53internal to bullish internal. When you
2:30:57get that, now what you need to see is a
2:30:59buildup of liquidity, right? Preferably
2:31:01some kind of Asia session, which you
2:31:03have seen by now I use a lot. If we have
2:31:05some formation of liquidity at an Asia
2:31:07session low and the order block that
2:31:09broke structure toward the buy side is
2:31:11below that level, it's a very very good
2:31:14order block to trade from. Same thing
2:31:15again, you can just place your entry in
2:31:17here and you can literally target the
2:31:19next swing high in structure. And so
2:31:22here we're able to break down what that
2:31:24looks like. Again, remember where we've
2:31:25just came from, we were bearish, right?
2:31:27We're putting in lower lows, lower
2:31:28highs, lower lows. And then eventually,
2:31:30as you can see, we shifted to become
2:31:33bullish, right? Right. So, we have a
2:31:34swing low that is down here and we have
2:31:36a swing high that is up here. So, as of
2:31:39right now, we're bullish. However, what
2:31:41happens is when price puts in this new
2:31:43high, we have a low, lower high, lower
2:31:47low. So, we're internally bearish until
2:31:50eventually we shift this high internally
2:31:53and we break that structure. From here,
2:31:55what we can expect is that this high now
2:31:58is going to be traded through. And
2:32:00again, we can see that if this was our
2:32:03swing low and this was our swing high,
2:32:05where's the order block that caused this
2:32:07change of character, that is very simply
2:32:10this final cell
2:32:13to buy in this area. And guess what? It
2:32:16is also just below this Asia session
2:32:20low, which is a massive piece of
2:32:22liquidity. And it's the same thing
2:32:23again. You can literally just place your
2:32:25long position in here, put your stops
2:32:28below this level, and then you can
2:32:29target straight away this old swing
2:32:32high. And again, this is something that
2:32:34has consistently played out time and
2:32:38time again. Now that we understand order
2:32:41blocks a little bit better and how to
2:32:43identify ones that work, now I want to
2:32:45show you how to actually double your
2:32:48risk-to-reward ratio with one simple
2:32:50thing. So let's take a look at this
2:32:5330-inut time frame. We are obviously
2:32:54trending bearish. Our swing high is up
2:32:58here like this. We've had a break of
2:33:00structure, right? Our swing low is down
2:33:02here. It's very simple price action. So
2:33:04we know that this low down here is our
2:33:07actual target. We know that this is our
2:33:09protected high. We know that this is a
2:33:11good order block because it has taken
2:33:14previous New York session high plus
2:33:18previous London session high. So this
2:33:20area has taken a good level of
2:33:22liquidity. It has had an aggressive
2:33:24expansion to the sell side and given us
2:33:27a bearish breaker structure. So we know
2:33:29then that this is a good order block.
2:33:31However, we don't want to just place our
2:33:34order on this level. I mean you can in
2:33:37theory, but if we were to do this, let's
2:33:40say our swing low target would be just a
2:33:43little under a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
2:33:46That's not terrible, but you need a much
2:33:48higher hit rate. So, what I like to do
2:33:51is instead of just taking a trade from
2:33:53this level, I actually want to wait for
2:33:55price to come into this level. And when
2:33:57we get there, I want to drop down to the
2:34:001 minute time frame. And I want to tune
2:34:02in to what's actually happening in this
2:34:04level. You see, not only am I going to
2:34:06double or even sometimes triple my
2:34:09riskto-reward ratio, but I'm also going
2:34:11to add an extra level of confirmation on
2:34:14this order block to make sure that I've
2:34:16actually chosen the right order block.
2:34:17And so this one thing alone has made me
2:34:19a ridiculous amount of money. You see,
2:34:22as price approaches this level, the 1
2:34:25minute time frame tells a story. And
2:34:28that story is that right now buyers are
2:34:31in control of this market. They are
2:34:32dominating the price and they are
2:34:34pushing price higher. So, if I want to
2:34:37sell, which I do, it's a little bit
2:34:38premature to sell right now because
2:34:41instead of just having my order on here
2:34:43and my stop loss on here, I can
2:34:45essentially wait and refine [snorts]
2:34:47my risk-to-reward ratio, the area that I
2:34:50get into the market. And how I can do
2:34:52that is by waiting for confirmation
2:34:54instead of trying to just short now when
2:34:56price could very easily just continue
2:34:58trading higher. And we don't know that
2:34:59this order block is guaranteed to hold.
2:35:01We just know it's got a good
2:35:02probability. Sometimes they don't. What
2:35:04I want to do is wait for that true
2:35:06confirmation with a market reversal. So
2:35:09price is bullish. As you can see, I need
2:35:12to simply just wait for price to become
2:35:15bearish like this. Right? What we can
2:35:18see now is that we've actually broken
2:35:20this low. So we had a swing high, swing
2:35:25low, higher high, lower low. So now
2:35:28we're bearish. However, for me at this
2:35:30moment in time, my London session window
2:35:32has still not opened. So, I do need to
2:35:34wait for my London session window to
2:35:36open. Cuz see here, 1:55.
2:35:38So, boom. There you go. Straight off the
2:35:41bat, that is my New York open. So, when
2:35:43I'm preparing for New York open, I can
2:35:44already London open, sorry. I can
2:35:47already have my order in place. So, how
2:35:49would I actually look at positioning
2:35:51this level? Well, 5 minute time frame
2:35:53and the most relevant fair value gap or
2:35:55order block. In this instance, we can
2:35:57see that we have this really nice
2:35:59bearish order block. So, I want to just
2:36:02go ahead and literally just place my
2:36:05position on this level and my stop loss
2:36:07above this high. So, what we can see
2:36:09here is if I was to use the 30inut area,
2:36:12right, the level that we're looking at.
2:36:14If I zoom out, this is the order blocks
2:36:16that we're looking at. If I use this
2:36:18level and target down here, I get, let's
2:36:20say, a 1 to three. If I use this level
2:36:22and target down here, I get a 1:7.2. So
2:36:26that's over double. And not only am I
2:36:29doubling my risk-to-reward ratio, but
2:36:31I'm also allowing price to show me what
2:36:35it's going to do instead of just
2:36:37gambling and hoping that this order
2:36:39block works. I'm actually letting the
2:36:41market prove to me that I am right
2:36:43before I need to risk any of my own
2:36:45money. That is the reality of having an
2:36:47edge. So when London session is gearing
2:36:50up to open, I can already set my order
2:36:52at this level and London session opens
2:36:55with a tag into my position and an
2:36:58immediate retracement away from my
2:37:00position. And I can even be smarter. I
2:37:02can reduce risk in these moments, right?
2:37:04There's so many little subtle small
2:37:06details that we can implement that
2:37:10enable us to get much better results
2:37:12than just these standard 1 to3s.
Top Down Analysis
2:37:17If you can master top-down analysis like
2:37:20the way I'm going to share with you in
2:37:21this video today, you will have the keys
2:37:23to become profitable. Literally, all you
2:37:25need is one candle and three time
2:37:28frames. What I'm about to share with you
2:37:30is so simple it hurts my head. In
2:37:33today's video, I'm going to break down
2:37:35step by step the three trades [music]
2:37:37that I took following this one candle.
2:37:40Every single one of these trades was
2:37:42taken live with my inner circle students
2:37:45and I'm going to prove it to you.
2:37:46>> And then my my take profit level was 1
2:37:49to5 and I think I ended up getting taken
2:37:51out of like 4.8.
2:37:53>> I also made $25,000 on this day. Let's
2:37:55just jump straight into it. You can see
2:37:57here three trades that have been taken.
2:38:00One winner, one loser, and another
2:38:02winner. And I'm going to break down
2:38:03every single one of those trades. But
2:38:05most importantly, I'm going to break
2:38:06down the top-down approach that I took
2:38:08to take these trades in the first place.
2:38:10And that all starts with this thing
2:38:12right here. So, let's go back to before
2:38:15these trades are taken. The key here and
2:38:18the key to all of this is this candle
2:38:21right here. This candle is the current
2:38:24daily candle in motion. And when price
2:38:27moves, this candle moves with it. And so
2:38:31my job, right, as a top- down analyst,
2:38:34if you want to be a successful top- down
2:38:35analyst, you just need to understand the
2:38:38character of this one candle. And the
2:38:40way you first do that is basically
2:38:42understanding what the last few of those
2:38:45daily candles has actually produced. So
2:38:48we're going to go to the daily time
2:38:49frame here. I'm actually going to go
2:38:50back before this daily candle has
2:38:53printed. Now, what do you see? Right?
2:38:55And yes, it is literally this simple. We
2:38:57have one, two, three, four bearish days
2:39:01on Euro dollar, right? We have four days
2:39:03of bearish price action. Now, the
2:39:05likelihood is is that we are going to
2:39:07get a bearish continuation the next day.
2:39:09And the thing that I have in mind here
2:39:11is essentially just a continuation below
2:39:13this previous day's low and a
2:39:15continuation lower. If you look to the
2:39:17left, you just need to identify an area
2:39:19of interest. You don't need to mark out
2:39:21all of these different structure types.
2:39:22Go from the daily to the 4 hour to the 1
2:39:24hour to the 50-minut. No, you just need
2:39:26the daily time frame to give you a read
2:39:28on price. All you need to understand is
2:39:30the probability of the daily candle
2:39:32printing lower or higher and then you
2:39:34need to build trade ideas based off of
2:39:36that. That's what I'm going to show you.
2:39:37So for me, what I can clearly see here
2:39:39is we have this fair value gap right
2:39:42here, inverted fair value gap that the
2:39:44daily time frame is now trading into.
2:39:47But we've filled some of that, but we
2:39:49still have more of this fair value gap
2:39:51to be filled. So my bias even from the
2:39:54beginning of the week is that we're
2:39:55going to trade and probably fill this
2:39:57fair value gap. So I have an idea of
2:40:00where price will want to react from. I
2:40:02have the context of the last 4 days on
2:40:05Euro dollar have been bearish. All I'm
2:40:07expecting is a bearish continuation.
2:40:09Right? It's that simple. From there once
2:40:11you have that just drop down to the
2:40:1315minut time frame. And so here we are
2:40:15now on the 15minut time frame. Right?
2:40:16And the new day is about to open at 5.
2:40:19So now the new daily candle gets
2:40:21printed. And you can see that here. And
2:40:22what happens is this daily candle prints
2:40:25bearish and it does give that
2:40:26continuation, right? The daily candle
2:40:29does print bearish, but I'm starting my
2:40:31trading day in London session and
2:40:33finishing my trading day in New York
2:40:34session. So here we have London session
2:40:37has opened, right? This 2:00 a.m. candle
2:40:39right here. London session has opened.
2:40:41Now notice this is all the daily biases.
2:40:44Notice that this is a very aggressive
2:40:47green bullish candle. I personally if my
2:40:50bias for the day is lower prices I want
2:40:53to sell when the daily candle is
2:40:54bullish. If my bias for the day is
2:40:57higher prices or in that session is
2:40:59higher prices I want to buy when that
2:41:01daily candle is bearish because I
2:41:03understand also the concept of mean
2:41:05reversions. You see the higher that
2:41:07price becomes and the higher to the high
2:41:10of day that price becomes or the closer
2:41:12to the low of day price becomes the
2:41:14higher probability that price is going
2:41:15to snap back and have a mean reversion.
2:41:17That's what the other two trades are
2:41:19based off, but this first trade is based
2:41:21off a daily bearish trend continuation.
2:41:24The 15-minute time frame is bearish and
2:41:26the daily is bearish and I'm expecting
2:41:29this area of price in here to get
2:41:31filled. I have Asia low and the current
2:41:33low of day. All I need to care about is
2:41:36that this day is going to trade lower
2:41:39than previous day, which it already has,
2:41:41and we are going to revisit the low of
2:41:44the current day because we're still
2:41:46bearish. Now I could be wrong and price
2:41:48could continue trading higher but I
2:41:49would not sure if that were the case.
2:41:51All I need to do is when London session
2:41:52opens up I need to make sure that the
2:41:54internal range liquidity has been taken
2:41:56which in this instance it has and then I
2:41:58need to wait for an orderflow shift
2:42:00which is the 1 minute time frame. So
2:42:01this is daily time frame 15-minut time
2:42:04frame 1 minute time frame. Now notice
2:42:06that as price is coming up to this area
2:42:09as this daily candle is bullish the one
2:42:11minute time frame is bullish. So what we
2:42:14need to see is a reversal. Right now the
2:42:18daily candle is the daily price and the
2:42:21one minute price is moving bullish. I'm
2:42:24waiting to see it move bearish. When it
2:42:27moves bearish that is when I will look
2:42:30to enter and I will look to sell this
2:42:32market short. So until then it's just a
2:42:34waiting game. And you can see I
2:42:36literally live called this ahead of time
2:42:39with my live student. So as we can see
2:42:41we are bullish on the one minute time
2:42:42frame. Eventually the one minute time
2:42:44frame is continuing which is kind of
2:42:46normal right the M1 is bullish. So at
2:42:48this point I'm not interested in sells.
2:42:50I'm interested in sells when we trade
2:42:52below this level. If we get that trade
2:42:55below that level
2:42:57and then we do right sellers come into
2:43:00the market we overpower this. Now for me
2:43:03is most likely going to be the high of
2:43:06day. So that's what I'm trying to catch
2:43:08essentially as well is I want to try to
2:43:10catch the high of day. I want to short
2:43:13the high of day. Now, sometimes that can
2:43:15lead to you getting in a little bit
2:43:16early, which is why this is very
2:43:17important. You can't just try to short
2:43:19the market. You need to wait for the
2:43:20lower time frame confirmations. This is
2:43:22why the one minute time frame is
2:43:23important. I believe and suspect that
2:43:25this right here is going to be the
2:43:27highest point of this day. And if I just
2:43:29get that correct, maybe I get a break
2:43:31even, maybe I get a winner, but if I
2:43:33just correct on this being the high of
2:43:34day, I cannot lose money on this trade.
2:43:37So, I go now to the 5minut time frame
2:43:39and I'm just waiting for a That's what
2:43:41we have. I'm just waiting for a quick
2:43:43snap back into this bullish fivem minute
2:43:47candle. Right? Quick snap back into the
2:43:49bullish fiveminute candle. And then you
2:43:52just want to target the current low of
2:43:54day. So that's 5.21
2:43:56risk-reward. So if for example I'm
2:43:59trading $400,000, which on this day I
2:44:01was, then I am risking $4,000 1%. But
2:44:06I'm going to gain $20,000 if this trade
2:44:09comes through. And that's what this
2:44:10trade netted me. You can see price tags
2:44:12in immediately, trades away, tags back
2:44:14in, and then literally begins selling
2:44:17off, eventually hitting all of those
2:44:19lows, and myself and countless of my
2:44:22inner circle students took this exact
2:44:24trade. Then comes the New York session.
2:44:27I could be lazy and just say, you know
2:44:29what, that's my day done. $20,000 day,
2:44:31but that's not how this game works. I
2:44:33want to be the best trader, not just
2:44:35make money. I want to execute my edge
2:44:37consistently. And I still have an edge
2:44:38to play because now what is in play is
2:44:41still based off the same daily bias. Now
2:44:43that we've had the main move, right?
2:44:45Look at this daily candle. Look how
2:44:47aggressively bearish this daily candle
2:44:48is. Remember what I told you just a
2:44:50moment ago. When this daily candle is at
2:44:54the low, the snapback becomes higher
2:44:57probability. So a lot of the times when
2:44:59you have a daily candle, if we go to the
2:45:01daily candle, if we go to the daily time
2:45:03frame right now and we look at all of
2:45:04these daily candles that we have
2:45:06recently seen, what you'll notice is one
2:45:09thing is common in all of them. You'll
2:45:12notice that at some point in time,
2:45:14right, we have our open, high, low,
2:45:18close. Now, do you notice that you know
2:45:2299% of the time the low of the daily
2:45:25candle is lower than the close of the
2:45:28daily candle. Very, very important
2:45:29detail. The low is often times lower
2:45:33than the close. So, what that tells me
2:45:35even in a bearish market, what that
2:45:37tells me is at some point in time we are
2:45:39going to find the low of day and then
2:45:41we're going to have a bounce from that
2:45:42level. And this candle, maybe it
2:45:44finishes bearish and maybe tomorrow is
2:45:46more bearish price action. But I know at
2:45:47some point in time the low of day is
2:45:49going to get placed and again I want to
2:45:51catch that low of day. And people often
2:45:54times tell you don't try to catch the
2:45:55lows, don't try to catch the highs.
2:45:56That's just because they don't know what
2:45:57they're doing. That's just the truth of
2:45:58it. When you understand the daily model,
2:46:00you can do that. And it's okay if you're
2:46:02also sometimes wrong. And this is why
2:46:04confirmation becomes very important. So
2:46:06you can notice, right? Look at all of
2:46:08these daily candles. A lot of the times
2:46:10you have a significant difference
2:46:12between the low and the close, right?
2:46:17Between the low here and the close. Now,
2:46:22this little movement from this low up to
2:46:24the here may not seem like a lot, but if
2:46:26you're an intraday trader like me,
2:46:28that's a 22.4 pip move. If my stop loss
2:46:32is on average, let's say five, six pips.
2:46:35Well, that's a three, four, sometimes
2:46:37five times the size of my stop loss. So,
2:46:40I can catch a very quick sharp 1 to 3, 1
2:46:43to four, 1 to5 risk-reward on the
2:46:45bounceback. And that's exactly what this
2:46:47idea is about. It's about that in a very
2:46:49bearish day, right? When you're in the
2:46:51market like this, a very bearish day, at
2:46:53some point in time, price is probably
2:46:55going to close up here. And at some
2:46:57point in time, price is going to run
2:46:58this aggressive low and then eventually
2:47:00sellers are going to get exhausted and
2:47:02price is going to have a bounce. And I
2:47:04want to long this bounce up into the
2:47:06close of that day. That is the higher
2:47:08time frame daily bias, you know, top-
2:47:10down analysis approach to this system.
2:47:12And it literally really is that simple.
2:47:14And so I come on live session with my
2:47:16members. And now at this moment in time,
2:47:18we are just waiting for a sign of
2:47:20reversal. And for me, the lower price
2:47:22comes down into this level, the better
2:47:25it becomes because the more price goes,
2:47:27price has an average daily range move.
2:47:30Although sometimes it breaks that
2:47:32average, absolutely, a lot of the times
2:47:34it has a constraint. So the maximum
2:47:36amount of pips that it's usually going
2:47:38to trade and the more it becomes
2:47:40overextended in that one direction, well
2:47:42then we're expecting to have a bounce.
2:47:44The lower price comes, the probability
2:47:46starts increasing that that bounce is
2:47:48about to arise. And that's literally
2:47:50what we're playing off. And so you can
2:47:51see here, five minute time frame. We're
2:47:53just waiting for a bounce. And that
2:47:56first bounce happens here. And this is
2:47:58our first trade taken. In fact, we don't
2:48:00actually get into the market here
2:48:01because this isn't a big enough shift.
2:48:03We get into the market when this high
2:48:04gets taken. So you can see, right, we've
2:48:06been melting off, melting down, and now
2:48:08we're starting to get a little bit of a
2:48:09reversal. And so we wait, we wait, we
2:48:11wait, we wait, we wait. Price breaks
2:48:13this high. That's my sign now that maybe
2:48:16this here is the low of the day, right?
2:48:20That is my bias. The same that I call
2:48:21the high of the day. Now I'm looking at
2:48:24the low of the day. And so again, 5
2:48:26minute time frame, which is my usual
2:48:28entry time frame. I'm just looking at
2:48:29this inverse fair value gap. So down
2:48:31here we have this inverse for value gap,
2:48:33right? I'm putting my longs in here. My
2:48:36stop loss is going below this low. This
2:48:38is quite a larger stop loss than normal.
2:48:40Generally speaking, you can notice like
2:48:41this is a 5.7. Usually it's like a 5 6 7
2:48:454 pip stop loss. 10.2 is a little bit
2:48:47abnormal but it's still fine because 1
2:48:49to three risk-to-reward in this scenario
2:48:51which is my fixed level is essentially
2:48:53just a trend retracement. You can see
2:48:56right we have essentially a trend
2:48:57continuation a retracement trend
2:48:59continuation retracement trend
2:49:01continuation
2:49:03retracement. That's all it is. It
2:49:05happens time and time again day after
2:49:07day. And so again I'm just waiting for
2:49:09this and that's the trade that we're
2:49:11waiting for. And eventually price tags
2:49:13us in and then it tags us out. Right?
2:49:17Just like this. Then what happens on the
2:49:20lower time frame is notice that the the
2:49:22confirmation for me to get into this
2:49:24trade is that this two candle one minute
2:49:27time frame pullback gets broken. That's
2:49:29my criteria. All of my strategies have
2:49:31mechanical step-by-step rules. They're
2:49:33not random. They're not discretionary.
2:49:34They are rule-based. And I have years of
2:49:37data testing those specific rules to
2:49:39prove that they are actually profitable.
2:49:41So when I make decisions, I make
2:49:43decisions based on what I know works. So
2:49:46what happens here is we run this low.
2:49:48Okay, no problem. Maybe that's not the
2:49:50low of day. Maybe we go for one more
2:49:51sweep, right? That's again a lot of the
2:49:53times what price likes to do. If we look
2:49:54at the 15-minute time frame and we also
2:49:56look at how this 15-minute candle
2:49:58closed, it fails to close below this
2:50:0015-minute candle down here. We fail to
2:50:03break and close below, we create a swing
2:50:06down here. That for me is even a higher
2:50:08sign that we're going to get a reversal.
2:50:10So now on the one minute time frame I'm
2:50:13looking at price and we can see here we
2:50:14have a very small but still valid one
2:50:17candle two bullish candles in a pullback
2:50:21that has now been broken and closed
2:50:22above. And what do we have down here?
2:50:25Right, we have number one the fair value
2:50:28gap that sits right here. We have the
2:50:31sell to buy region as well that sits
2:50:34right here. Right on the three minute
2:50:36time frame you can see that we have this
2:50:38fair value gap. So, we can just
2:50:39literally place our order, entry on
2:50:41here, stop loss below the low. And
2:50:43again, you can see this is a 4.2 pip
2:50:46stop loss. This is a little bit more of
2:50:47an average size stop loss. You can see
2:50:49this is exact trade that we're placing
2:50:51yesterday on live with our members. And
2:50:54then I'm just looking at a simple 1 to
2:50:56three. I'm not asking for much. It's
2:50:58very easy for price to have just a
2:51:00bounce from here. Even if we then go
2:51:02lower, right? I'm just assuming that
2:51:04this is probably going to be the low of
2:51:05the day. That's all I'm trying to find.
2:51:06And again, many people will tell you
2:51:08don't try to find the low of the day or
2:51:09don't try to catch a fallen knife or
2:51:11just trade the trend. I make hundreds of
2:51:13thousands of dollars not taking that
2:51:15advice. So, I mean, please continue.
2:51:18Don't do this, right? More for me. But I
2:51:20literally make a living catching highs
2:51:22and lows. That's what my strategy is.
2:51:24And so, yeah, that is the trade idea.
2:51:26And then you can see price comes back,
2:51:28really nice tag, really nice reversal,
2:51:31and literally we get tagged in around
2:51:3410:00 a.m. and we get tagged out at
2:51:35around 10:51. Less than an hour. That's
2:51:38a one to three riskreward. That's
2:51:39$12,000. I'm risking $4,000 to gain
2:51:42$12,000. And that was my day. Three
2:51:44trades taken, $25,000 in profit.
I Never Enter a Trade Without This
2:51:49All traders want the same thing. We want
2:51:52to take more winning trades and less
2:51:54losing trades. I've been trading now for
2:51:56over 5 years and this has been something
2:51:58that I [music] have obsessed over. How
2:52:00can I lose less and win more? And after
2:52:03testing thousands of trades, there's one
2:52:06concept [music] that I use that enables
2:52:08me to take more winning trades and less
2:52:11losing trades. And in this video, I'm
2:52:13going to break down that one simple
2:52:15concept for you. [music] So, for us to
2:52:17understand this concept, I'm going to be
2:52:20breaking down the anatomy [music] of a
2:52:21candlestick. Now, before you start
2:52:23thinking, oh, a candlestick, this is
2:52:25super beginner, blah, blah, blah. You
2:52:27hear people online talking about
2:52:28candlesticks, and to be quite frank,
2:52:29they have absolutely no clue what
2:52:31they're talking about, when you really
2:52:32dive deep into the anatomy of a
2:52:35candlestick, it's a completely different
2:52:36game. You see, as a trader, you are
2:52:38trading candlesticks. That is what you
2:52:40are trying to read. Now, a candlestick
2:52:42is just the physical manifestation of
2:52:46the order book inside. And so, you may
2:52:48be asking, what's the order book? Well,
2:52:49the order book is this here. This is
2:52:52what the order book looks like. And so
2:52:53on every single time frame, one candle
2:52:58represents the start and finish of that
2:53:00time frame. So if you're on a 15-minute
2:53:02time frame, each candle represents 15
2:53:05minutes of trading. And in that 15
2:53:07minutes of trading, the buyers and the
2:53:09sellers, the activity inside of that
2:53:10price leg forms a candle. And that tells
2:53:13you everything that you need to know
2:53:15about what's actually happening in the
2:53:17market right now. And what happens is
2:53:19inside of this candle is this. And this
2:53:23right here is the order flow. So I'll
2:53:25show you an actual image of an
2:53:26orderflow, but for the purpose of this,
2:53:28we're going to simplify it because it's
2:53:30pretty much the same concept. Now, first
2:53:32let's quickly understand the four
2:53:35important points of a candlestick. So
2:53:37this is a bullish candle. We have the
2:53:39high, we have the close, we have the
2:53:41open, and we have the low. The high
2:53:43represents the highest point that price
2:53:46reached in that time period. So if we're
2:53:48on a daily time frame, it's going to be
2:53:50the highest point that price reached in
2:53:52that day. The close of a bullish candle
2:53:55is going to be here. This is where price
2:53:58closed. So at the end of the day when we
2:54:02go and form the new candle, the close is
2:54:04going to be where we were at that moment
2:54:06in time. The open which is the low of
2:54:10the body is going to be where price
2:54:12opened on that day. So when the new day
2:54:15began we open with a new candle and that
2:54:18is your open and then the low is the
2:54:21lowest point that price reached in that
2:54:24day. So we have high open low and close.
2:54:28For a bearish candle pretty similar but
2:54:30a little bit different because a bullish
2:54:32candle goes from here up to here. That's
2:54:35what makes it bullish. Well, a bearish
2:54:37candle goes the opposite. It opens here
2:54:40and finishes down here. That's why it is
2:54:42a bearish candle because price moves
2:54:44lower. So, for a bearish candle, you
2:54:45have the high, which is the highest
2:54:47point that price reached in that time
2:54:49period. You have the open. Now, unlike
2:54:51the bullish one that opens lower and
2:54:53closes higher, a bearish one opens
2:54:56higher and closes lower. So, the open is
2:54:59here, the close is down here, and the
2:55:03low is down here. Very, very simple
2:55:05stuff. What we want to understand is
2:55:07what's the actual process that's taking
2:55:09place as a candle forms because the
2:55:12formation of that candle [music] shows
2:55:14to you what's happening inside the order
2:55:16book and what's happening inside of this
2:55:17order book and what's happening in this
2:55:19candle are one and the same thing and
2:55:21it's telling you everything you need to
2:55:22know about the current ideology and
2:55:26sentiment from everybody who's
2:55:27participating in this market. Now, let's
2:55:30take a look at how we can get the next
2:55:33candle [music] to form and what's going
2:55:34to happen inside of that day. Let's use
2:55:36this candle to be our previous day. So,
2:55:39each candle represents one day. This
2:55:41candle was our last day for Euro dollar.
2:55:43So, we had a bearish day. We opened
2:55:45price up in here. This was the high of
2:55:48price. We had a very aggressively
2:55:50bearish day. We closed down here and
2:55:52this was the low of price. So how that
2:55:54happens is a lot of the times when you
2:55:55see a bearish candle, this bearish
2:55:57candle may have started bullish maybe
2:56:00started like this, right? The candle
2:56:02opened, we had a run up to the buy side
2:56:05like this. A lot of the times this
2:56:07happens and then after we've kind of
2:56:10liquidated something or something like
2:56:11that, then we come back down and then we
2:56:14turn into a bearish candle and then it
2:56:16comes all the way down to here like
2:56:18this, right? and then it's a bearish
2:56:21candle and then it comes back up a
2:56:24little bit and then this is where it's
2:56:26closed. That is how the high to the low
2:56:30and then back to the close is formed.
2:56:32And so understanding this candle is
2:56:35understanding what's going on inside
2:56:37this order flow. So let's say we're
2:56:39going to look at the next day and how
2:56:40that next day is going to form. Well, if
2:56:42this is the close of the previous day,
2:56:44then the next day is going to open here,
2:56:47regardless of whether it's a bullish or
2:56:49bearish day, it's going to open here
2:56:51because the close of the previous candle
2:56:54is the open of the next candle. If it's
2:56:57a bullish day, so you know, it looks
2:57:00like this, then the open will be down
2:57:03here, right? Because this is where we
2:57:04open regardless. Same as a bullish
2:57:07model. We open down here and the close
2:57:10would be up here and that would be a
2:57:12bullish day. Well, let's say it was a
2:57:14bearish day. Let's say, you know, price
2:57:17opens here. We have a run up in price
2:57:20here. So, this would be the highest that
2:57:22price reached and then it comes back
2:57:25down like this and then trades lower
2:57:28down in here and ends up closing out as
2:57:31a bearish candle. Maybe price reached
2:57:33down to this price in here having a bit
2:57:35of a retracement back up during the day
2:57:39and then it closes there. That would be
2:57:41the open, the high, the low and the
2:57:46[music] close. That's the formation.
2:57:47Now, how does this get built? What
2:57:49happens during that day? So, let's go
2:57:51back to the beginning of the day. So,
2:57:53we're starting a new day. And so, this
2:57:55is the close of the previous day. And
2:57:56so, the new day is going to be opening
2:57:57at this price point or inside the order
2:57:59book. It's going to be here. The new day
2:58:01is opening at let's just say05.
2:58:05That is the price. So in the order book
2:58:08we have the price. We have the bid which
2:58:10is essentially another word for demand
2:58:12right or buyers. And then we have the
2:58:14ask which is another word for sellers.
2:58:17Just think of it as bid is people
2:58:18willing to bid on something. So you're
2:58:20willing to buy something. And ask you
2:58:23are asking for something in return. So
2:58:25you're selling something. The current
2:58:28price at any one moment in time is what
2:58:30is deemed as fair value. It's because
2:58:33that price right now is what the market
2:58:35agrees is the fair price for this
2:58:38specific thing at this specific time. It
2:58:41cannot be any other way. If it was to be
2:58:44any other way and the market didn't deem
2:58:46this as a fair value area, then the
2:58:48market would do something about it. So
2:58:50if for example this was the price and
2:58:53buyers disagreed heavily with that price
2:58:55well what they could do is they could
2:58:57buy at this price in the order book
2:59:00there are let's say five lots of sells
2:59:04willing to be sold at this level because
2:59:07at any point in [music] time there are
2:59:08two market participants. You have
2:59:10passive and you have aggressive. Your
2:59:12passive side of the market are the
2:59:14people who put their orders in. So think
2:59:16about your limit orders right or your
2:59:18stop orders. Passive order is
2:59:20essentially a intention to do something.
2:59:24So if you see order book like this and
2:59:26you see you know 124 lots of orders up
2:59:28here what that is is that's a person or
2:59:31a group of people who have the intention
2:59:34of selling at that price point. At any
2:59:36point in time they can remove their
2:59:37orders before they get triggered. The
2:59:39same is true for the buy side. These
2:59:40orders that you see resting in here they
2:59:42are your passive orders. Then you also
2:59:44have your aggressive orders. Your
2:59:46aggressive orders are the orders that
2:59:48come in at market value from people who
2:59:51aren't willing to wait. So what they
2:59:54will do is they aren't willing to wait
2:59:56for price to come back down to here to
2:59:57buy. They want to buy right now at this
2:59:59price. They don't care. They're going to
3:00:01accept it. That is what's called the
3:00:02premium. So they're going to buy and
3:00:04place that order. Now let's say there
3:00:06are five orders in here, 12 orders in
3:00:08here. And let's say someone comes into
3:00:10the market with 20 lots of buy orders.
3:00:14And they're not going to wait. They're
3:00:15just going to buy right here, right now.
3:00:17And so here's what happens. 20 orders
3:00:19come into the market. Now, there is
3:00:21nobody here at this price point willing
3:00:25to sell 20 orders. So what happens? The
3:00:28market goes to the next available block
3:00:31of liquidity, which is the price that
3:00:33has sellers willing to sell what this
3:00:36buyer is asking for. So these 20 lots of
3:00:39buy orders, five of them will get filled
3:00:43at this level. So not all 20 will get
3:00:45filled because there's no one on the
3:00:47other side. Right? For every buyer,
3:00:48there must be a seller. Five get filled
3:00:50from here. Taking this five here from
3:00:53five to zero. So now there are no more
3:00:56orders at this level. So what happens?
3:00:59Well, now the current price moves from 5
3:01:04to 106. That is the last active area of
3:01:08transaction. That simply means that this
3:01:10is now the accepted value of price. And
3:01:13so what happens to the candle in this
3:01:15event? Well, it opens here right at
3:01:1910005 where it's supposed to open and
3:01:21then it trades up to 06. And so this
3:01:27begins to start looking like a bullish
3:01:30candle. But we're not done yet because
3:01:32there were 20 orders that came into the
3:01:34market at 10005, but there were only
3:01:37five available and they were available
3:01:39at 10006. That means there are still 15
3:01:42outstanding orders. So what happens?
3:01:45Well, price then goes to the next
3:01:47available block of liquidity. And here
3:01:50there are 12 orders. So all of these 12
3:01:53orders get fulfilled. And the 12 orders
3:01:55that were sitting there go down to zero.
3:01:58And so the fair value of price moves to
3:02:0217.
3:02:04And so too does the candle begin to form
3:02:07to the next price point. Now we go into
3:02:101 07. And so now there were 20 orders.
3:02:15Five got filled leaving 15 remaining.
3:02:18Then 12 got filled. That leaves three
3:02:21remaining. And so those next three
3:02:23orders get triggered at
3:02:2708. And so the 33 orders that were in
3:02:30there, three of those orders get filled,
3:02:32taking this to 31. And so then they have
3:02:35absorbed the orders. And very likely
3:02:38price is heading back up into this one8.
3:02:41And so that's how you see price started
3:02:43in here and then traded up until here.
3:02:47And what happens as well in real time
3:02:49very very fast inside the order book is
3:02:52that these spots start to fill up very
3:02:54quickly. People come back into the
3:02:55market and then you'll see a five in
3:02:57here. You see a 10 in here. You see a 30
3:03:02in here. These fill back up, right? You
3:03:04see an 11 in here. You see a 12 in here,
3:03:07right? For example, now what happens?
3:03:10Let's say that we get into this price
3:03:12and this is the exact price that there
3:03:14are now 31 passive sellers who want to
3:03:18get into the market are at. And let's
3:03:21say, you know, let's say there wasn't 30
3:03:23in here. There were 15.
3:03:26Let's say there were 10 buyers in here.
3:03:30Say there were four in here. So here we
3:03:34have 15 lots of buys, 10 lots of buys
3:03:37and four lots of buys. So when we reach
3:03:39this level, now we have the passive 31
3:03:43orders that are sitting at this price
3:03:45point. Well, a portion of them were just
3:03:47[music] filled if you remember. So now
3:03:50let's say you were a person who had a
3:03:54short position at 08. Here's how it
3:03:58works. Usually it works in a
3:04:00hierarchical structure. Meaning if you
3:04:04were the first person to put your order
3:04:07in at this price point, then just a
3:04:10moment ago when the three orders got
3:04:12filled from this level, you would have
3:04:14been one of them. Let's say you had two
3:04:15of your orders. Your two would have got
3:04:18filled. But let's say you were the 30th
3:04:20person. Well, you may have an order at
3:04:2310008, but you didn't get filled because
3:04:26there was no one at that price point
3:04:27willing to take. Remember, these are
3:04:29passive orders. And so, as of right now,
3:04:31there is no one willing to buy at this
3:04:33specific price point. So, there are
3:04:34still 31 orders at this price point, but
3:04:37no one is taking them. No one is
3:04:40offering the other side. And so, that's
3:04:41why sometimes price just stays still.
3:04:43And then you may have an active buyer
3:04:47who comes into the market. And that
3:04:49active buyer may want to take 15 orders.
3:04:53And so, 15 buy orders come in at 10008.
3:04:57And then 15 sell orders get activated at
3:05:0010008 leaving 16 orders remaining. Now
3:05:03we've had transactions but price hasn't
3:05:06moved. Price has stayed the same. That
3:05:08is fair value. That is the agreed upon
3:05:11acceptable rate at this moment in time.
3:05:14That is fair value. [music] So at any
3:05:16point in time, wherever the market is,
3:05:18that is where it's supposed to be at
3:05:19that given time. Now let's say those 31
3:05:22orders now drop down to 16, right?
3:05:25because now the other lot of orders were
3:05:29filled by the person who just came into
3:05:31the market. Well, now let's say an
3:05:33active seller steps into the market and
3:05:36let's say that seller is a big whale and
3:05:39he wants to initiate 100 lots of that
3:05:42position. Well, now guess what? This
3:05:44candle in here is going to change
3:05:47because those 100 cells that come in at
3:05:5210008, 15 of them get triggered here, 10
3:05:56get triggered here, four get triggered
3:05:58here, seven here, eight here, five here,
3:06:02the other 35 in here, and then let's
3:06:04just say there were 150 orders at one.
3:06:08Well, now what happens? These 100 orders
3:06:10flood to the market and all of a sudden
3:06:12we go from being here and then as these
3:06:15100 orders get filled, 15 get filled
3:06:18here, 10 get filled here, four here, 7
3:06:22here, 8, 5, 35, and then we get into
3:06:26here. And so now we've shifted from a
3:06:28bullish candle to a bearish candle. And
3:06:30this now goes to red. And now we're at
3:06:33this area because these 100 orders that
3:06:35came into the market filled at this
3:06:37specific price point. And then this
3:06:39where we are right now is the current
3:06:41fair value. And then let's just say for
3:06:43math sake, you know, 30 people come into
3:06:45here and then 100 people come into the
3:06:48market actively, right? It's active
3:06:50people that move the market. They fill
3:06:52those 30. They fill the other 30 in here
3:06:55and then there's 100 in here. Let's just
3:06:56say as those orders come into the
3:06:58market, price comes back up, right?
3:07:01Right? So we can take this. This is the
3:07:04lowest point that price reached. Price
3:07:06goes from here. 100 come in. 30 get
3:07:08filled here. 30 get filled here. The
3:07:09rest of the orders get filled in here.
3:07:11And then let's say the day closes. Well,
3:07:14that is how the daily candle would be
3:07:16formed. And it's formed off the back of
3:07:18what takes place in the order book. So
3:07:20all of the orders that are being
3:07:22transacted at these prices that tells
3:07:25you exactly what is in the minds of
3:07:28people because now we have the high, the
3:07:31open,
3:07:33the low and the [music] close. We have a
3:07:37bearish candle. As you look at that
3:07:39bearish candle, you think that there is
3:07:41selling momentum. So sellers may be in
3:07:44control. And that's exactly what is
3:07:46happening. But we've seen it firsthand
3:07:48inside of the actual order book. We have
3:07:50seen that sellers have outweighed buyers
3:07:54today because more sellers came into the
3:07:56market. There were more orders and the
3:07:59buyers could not handle it. They
3:08:00couldn't support it. So, they got filled
3:08:03and we ended up opening here. We started
3:08:05bullish and then sellers took back
3:08:07control of the market and pushed price
3:08:09down. That is what's actually going on
3:08:11in the moment when you see a candlestick
3:08:14get formed. Now that you understand
3:08:16that, you will never look at a
3:08:18candlestick the same again because now
3:08:20you will understand what's actually
3:08:22going on inside of the candle. Now, in
3:08:25this segment, I just wanted to give you
3:08:27the framework of understanding of the
3:08:29candlestick. I still haven't even got to
3:08:31the concept yet, but for me to give you
3:08:32the concept, it's very important that
3:08:35you understand how a candlestick gets
3:08:37formed and what happens inside of that
3:08:40candlestick. Because if you want to be a
3:08:42profitable trader consistently
3:08:43long-term, you have to really understand
3:08:46what the market is doing. And the market
3:08:48is the collective of millions of minds
3:08:50who are making decisions. You have to
3:08:52understand what that collective mind is
3:08:54doing. Not just what the candlesticks
3:08:55are saying, but what the people are
3:08:57thinking as each candlestick gets
3:08:59printed. That's what's going to make you
3:09:01a profitable trader. Now let me take you
3:09:03into the concept and how by
3:09:05understanding this and applying one very
3:09:07important thing is what enabled me to
3:09:09win more trades and stop [music] taking
3:09:11trades that resulted in more losses. Now
3:09:13let's imagine the next day was very
3:09:15bullish. We had a bearish day then we
3:09:17had another bearish day but less
3:09:19momentum less aggression more of a
3:09:22neutral day. Now what you can see is you
3:09:24can see that the lows down here the high
3:09:26is up here. This is more of a neutral.
3:09:29Now it's more neutral/bearish
3:09:32because we do end up closing lower. The
3:09:34key point you have to understand is that
3:09:36this was the close of the previous day,
3:09:38right? And then this is the close of the
3:09:40day after. So if the close of the day
3:09:41after is lower than the close of the
3:09:43previous day, then it's fair to assume
3:09:46the market agrees that lower than this
3:09:50is fair value, right? That's exactly how
3:09:52it goes. But it's less aggressive. Then
3:09:55let's say the next day we have this
3:09:56aggressively bullish candle like this.
3:09:58So buyers are obviously in control with
3:10:00price. We have a little bit of a of a
3:10:04wick on the buy side, but pretty strong
3:10:06aggressive bullish candle. We've broken
3:10:08above and closed above the previous days
3:10:11high. And then let's say as the next day
3:10:13comes in, sellers begin pushing price
3:10:16down like this. So we open here. It
3:10:20looks to be starting bearish like this.
3:10:22This is the lowest point that price
3:10:24reaches. And then price shifts to go
3:10:28high and then we get a run of the highs.
3:10:31And so at that moment in time, we've
3:10:33just broken above this old swing high.
3:10:37This is now a bullish candle. So the
3:10:41market is agreeing that price is
3:10:42bullish, that we're supposed to be above
3:10:45this price. But then let's say sellers
3:10:48don't agree with this price and so they
3:10:50step in. They think that this is a wrong
3:10:51accusation. Then what happens is we
3:10:54start to see a rejection, a move out of
3:10:57this price point and maybe even back to
3:11:01the sell side like this. And then this
3:11:05is where market closes. So we had the
3:11:08open, we had buyers who pushed price up
3:11:11believing that price was supposed to go
3:11:13higher. Sellers had nothing to say about
3:11:14it. For a moment there was a time where
3:11:16the market agreed that higher than this
3:11:18previous high was fair and then sellers
3:11:21completely disagreed with that and so
3:11:23they pushed price down outweighed the
3:11:25buyers and then this is what the candle
3:11:27looks like. And so now what we have is a
3:11:30liquidation. This is a rejection. The
3:11:33fact that price cannot break above this
3:11:36high and close above it being the key
3:11:39word and the fact that it's also done
3:11:41the same with the previous day's candle.
3:11:43The likelihood of price continuing to
3:11:46trade higher is very slim. So just off
3:11:49the basis of understanding the logic
3:11:51behind price. Sellers are controlling
3:11:53this price. We've tried to take out this
3:11:55high. It's been met with rejection from
3:11:59sellers. The market has closed down
3:12:01here. That simply means the auction of
3:12:04the market agrees that price is not
3:12:07supposed to be above this high. So
3:12:09immediately we have a frame for an
3:12:12understanding of price. The problem that
3:12:14many people make is they see this wick
3:12:17here and they believe that this is a
3:12:19break of structure. And so what do they
3:12:21do? They think that this is indicative
3:12:23of higher prices. They think that that
3:12:25is a bullish sign. So when they come
3:12:27into the market the next day and they
3:12:29see that they're trying to buy price.
3:12:32And so when they go into a lower time
3:12:33frame, as the next daily candle forms,
3:12:36there's a lot of people out there
3:12:37thinking that this is actually bullish
3:12:40price action. And what makes it worse is
3:12:42the common trait of price here is to
3:12:45open here, give us a move to the upside
3:12:49like this, right? Starting out to be
3:12:51bullish and then a lot of the times
3:12:54you'll see the continuation. You'll see
3:12:57the real rejection of price. And this
3:13:02usually ends up to be something that
3:13:04looks like this. A very bearish next
3:13:07move. This is what I want to be sharing
3:13:09with you. You have to understand that if
3:13:12a price fails to close above an old
3:13:16high, it is very highly likely that the
3:13:19next candle that gets printed is going
3:13:21to be a bearish one. It's also a lot of
3:13:24the times when we take it one step
3:13:26further, which we're going to do in just
3:13:27a moment, it also gives contextual
3:13:29understanding to something even deeper,
3:13:32something that you could maybe
3:13:33anticipate. And so what you'll often see
3:13:35in a time like this is, you know, if
3:13:37price was in a scenario where we had a
3:13:40move up to create this pullback to push
3:13:42higher, failure to break this high. A
3:13:44lot of the time the responsibility of
3:13:47buyers who are propping up these moves
3:13:50is to overpower the sellers that stepped
3:13:53into the market here. There's a power
3:13:55struggle at play between sellers and
3:13:56buyers. As always, supply and demand.
3:13:58Now, when buyers move like this, try to
3:14:01attack this high, fail to break it, the
3:14:05reason they fail to break it is because
3:14:06they push it past momentarily and then
3:14:08sellers step back in and regain control
3:14:10of the market. Many people think that
3:14:12this is a sign of bullishness. when a
3:14:14lot of the times it's actually not. The
3:14:16fact that we closed back inside this
3:14:17range is very indicative that this low
3:14:21down here is now weak and could even be
3:14:24look to be targeted because then you'll
3:14:26have a candle like this and then you're
3:14:29going to have another day that's
3:14:32aggressively bearish again and you may
3:14:34see that price starts to prop up. Buyers
3:14:36try to take control of the market. This
3:14:38looks like it's starting to print green
3:14:40only for the sellers to take back
3:14:43control of the market and push price
3:14:46lower. This is what you will see a lot
3:14:48of times. You'll see that these candles
3:14:50that have these large wicks, they start
3:14:51bullish and then or at some point they
3:14:54get bullish and then they continue
3:14:56moving to the downside. And then when
3:14:58you see a candle close like this one and
3:15:01you look at it and you see that it's
3:15:03being broken and closed below that is
3:15:06when you can confirm that this actually
3:15:08is a bearish market. When you have this
3:15:12confirmation because this is telling you
3:15:14that the market buyers and sellers
3:15:17regardless of what they think because
3:15:19someone can think something or it's
3:15:21supposed to be like this but the reality
3:15:23is objectivity. The reality is no matter
3:15:26whether people think that price should
3:15:28be higher, the market is agreeing that
3:15:31price should be lower than this old low.
3:15:34So sellers are in control. The market is
3:15:37overall bearish. Now you have a low to a
3:15:40high to a new lower low that is actually
3:15:45confirmed. It's confirmed because we
3:15:47close below it. The difference is that
3:15:50once upon a time price reached above
3:15:52this high. It couldn't hold itself. the
3:15:54market closed below it. The market close
3:15:58is very important because that tells you
3:16:00this is what the market agrees on at the
3:16:02end of this day, at the end of this
3:16:0415-minute period, at the end of this 1
3:16:06hour period. This is right. This is fair
3:16:09value. Then you can start building ideas
3:16:12based off of true moves. Because once
3:16:14you have a clear break of a low, now you
3:16:17understand direction. And then what you
3:16:19can start to do is then you can really
3:16:21start to get involved in these types of
3:16:23moves because now you can find something
3:16:25like this, a nice order block like this,
3:16:28a nice supply zone in here. And then you
3:16:32can look at using this level, right?
3:16:35That has a nice fair value gap inside of
3:16:38it.
3:16:40You can use this level to look at
3:16:42building trade ideas because then even
3:16:45if price makes its way back up,
3:16:51it's likely going to make its way back
3:16:53down because it's the footprint, the
3:16:57flow of orders that make up your
3:17:01structure, right? It's the flow of
3:17:03orders that make up the overall dynamic
3:17:06of price. And so when the flow [snorts]
3:17:08of orders in consecutive fashion are
3:17:12moving lower like this, the logic is is
3:17:16that we move lower. So let's go and
3:17:18apply this now to some real world
3:17:20examples to show some of the mistakes
3:17:22that people make using this and also how
3:17:25I use it to approach certain conditions
3:17:28that enable me to pick the right trades,
3:17:31pick the right areas and most
3:17:32importantly avoid losses and make sure
3:17:34that I'm capitalizing on winning
3:17:36opportunities. So here we are on the 1
3:17:38hour time frame, right? Euro dollar. You
3:17:41can see that at this moment in time
3:17:42price is bullish. You can see that price
3:17:45is moving in this direction, right? You
3:17:48can see obviously that price is bullish.
3:17:51Now, you can see that the current high
3:17:52is all the way up here. The current low,
3:17:55how we identify that is look at what was
3:17:57broken. So, here's the highest point
3:17:59that was broken in this price leg. Okay.
3:18:02Now, where's the lowest point before
3:18:03that break? So, I can just go here to
3:18:07here and pull it across. Okay. The
3:18:10lowest point is here. This is the lowest
3:18:13point. So we go from higher high, right?
3:18:16Like this
3:18:18from higher high to higher low to higher
3:18:21high. So we're bullish. The trend is
3:18:23overall bullish. Very obvious and
3:18:25confirmed with this break of this high.
3:18:27Then what happens is price comes back in
3:18:30here. Looks to go and attack this high.
3:18:33So we have a high up in here that is
3:18:35going under attack. This is the high. As
3:18:39price plays out, you can see we go for
3:18:42the high, but we fail to break it. We
3:18:46actually close back inside of the range.
3:18:49We take the high, but we close down
3:18:52here. So therefore, it's evident that
3:18:54the market has agreed price isn't
3:18:58supposed to be above this high. And yet
3:19:01still people will sit there and try to
3:19:04think that this is a break of structure
3:19:05and they'll try to buy from somewhere
3:19:07like this, right? an order block in
3:19:09here. They'll put their entries on.
3:19:11They'll put their stops in a safe
3:19:13logical position. They'll try to target
3:19:14the old high like this, not realizing
3:19:17that the likelihood is is if market is
3:19:19not accepting this area, then this order
3:19:23block is invalidated. This low down here
3:19:26is probably a target because the
3:19:28responsibility of this low, if the low
3:19:30from here wants to take control of this
3:19:32market, it needs to break this high and
3:19:35close above it with conviction to claim
3:19:38it. And so, kind of fast forward to see
3:19:40what plays out. Price trades again. We
3:19:43start coming back to a pullback and then
3:19:46you can see we have another break of the
3:19:49high without a close. And anyone who was
3:19:52trying to buy from this area just got
3:19:55destroyed. Now you can see price tried
3:19:58again. We tried to break it. We failed
3:20:00to do so. Closed back inside of the
3:20:01range and then had the aggressive sell
3:20:04off and then we close down here. At this
3:20:05point it's very obvious that the market
3:20:07is not accepting this low to be in
3:20:10control. It's not accepting that price
3:20:12should be above this high. And so now we
3:20:15have a low down here which is very
3:20:18likely to be targeted. Now bearing in
3:20:20mind this is the mistake that people
3:20:21make because for me we are bullish from
3:20:25the low down here to the highest point
3:20:28price reached up here. That's my
3:20:30structure. So I'm looking to buy for
3:20:32example let's say you know you have this
3:20:34old breaker block in here. Right? You
3:20:36have an old breaker. You can remove this
3:20:39part that's already been mitigated. So
3:20:41you're looking at an area like this.
3:20:43This is a logical area that price could
3:20:45potentially react from this old breaker
3:20:47level. Right? You also have this
3:20:50potential order block that price could
3:20:52react from. These are the areas that I
3:20:53would be expecting for price to trade
3:20:56out from because we're still bullish.
3:20:59But the problem is is that people are
3:21:01trying to long from here thinking these
3:21:03are breaks and they're not. that gets
3:21:05you stuck on the wrong side of the
3:21:06market. And then again, price starts
3:21:08trading higher. And so every man and
3:21:10their dog start flocking to the market
3:21:11thinking that price is going to break
3:21:12higher. When the reality is is price has
3:21:14just shown us that it does not accept to
3:21:16be higher than that price point at this
3:21:18moment in time. If it breaks and closes
3:21:20above it, then we can reassess things.
3:21:22But until it does, it's not. And you can
3:21:24see price ends up coming back down and
3:21:27does exactly what? Price ends up
3:21:29breaking below this low. not closing
3:21:31below it, which is key for right now,
3:21:33but we've taken out this low. And so now
3:21:36what happens? Well, so many of people in
3:21:38the market now are seeing the price like
3:21:39we have a high, we have a low, we have a
3:21:41high up here, we have a new low down
3:21:43here. Okay, now I'm going to look for
3:21:44short positions. Maybe they're looking
3:21:47at, you know, the order block in here.
3:21:49Maybe they're looking at the fair value
3:21:52gap in here, right? Even kind of IT or
3:21:54SMC traders, right? They're looking at
3:21:56positions like this where they can look
3:21:58at selling. Maybe they put their stop
3:22:00loss at the body closes in here, right?
3:22:03And then they're trying to target maybe
3:22:04the next draw on liquidity or something
3:22:06down here. These are the types of trade
3:22:08ideas that people are getting off the
3:22:09basis of this when the reality is is the
3:22:12market has not accepted this price to be
3:22:14higher. So if you kind of continue
3:22:16playing price out,
3:22:18price begins finding an area of support
3:22:20at this old breaker level, right? We
3:22:23begin rounding off. Now some traders are
3:22:25trying to get involved in shorts.
3:22:28Some traders have just been tagged into
3:22:29their shorts and they get tagged
3:22:30straight out. Now, we are still not
3:22:33above this high. So, until price can
3:22:36prove that we can break from this high,
3:22:39it still doesn't matter.
3:22:42And again, you can see that price begins
3:22:44rejecting from this high. Still a break,
3:22:46nothing. Expecting the next candle to be
3:22:49bearish. It's expected.
3:22:53Same thing again, right? Price cannot
3:22:55break the high. price is agreeing that
3:22:58price shouldn't be higher. And so now
3:22:59the problem is is that everyone again,
3:23:02same thing. They just got stopped out of
3:23:05their positions above these highs in
3:23:08here. And so now what do they have? They
3:23:12don't have anything. They've just been
3:23:14stopped out once, stopped out twice,
3:23:15right? And they're just on the
3:23:17consistently wrong side of the market.
3:23:21And then price gets the break. And then
3:23:24price gets the close and that is when
3:23:27we've confirmed that we're ready to go
3:23:29higher. And so now we actually have the
3:23:31break, but most importantly the close.
3:23:35You can see the difference in the
3:23:37market. Huge difference between price
3:23:40just wicking a high and closing back in
3:23:43versus breaking above and closing with
3:23:45momentum. This clearly tells you that
3:23:48buyers are in control of the market and
3:23:50that market is likely to go higher.
3:23:52little kind of pieces of data that tell
3:23:54you so much once you understand the
3:23:57actual order book. Once you understand
3:23:58what's going on in the order book, it
3:24:00makes reading a price chart so much more
3:24:03powerful. But we still have a problem
3:24:05because there's a lot of the market
3:24:06that's looking at this. They're like,
3:24:07"Okay, you know, this was a shift of the
3:24:09high and then there's a little pullback
3:24:11and then we break." And so they at this
3:24:13moment in time, they're actually looking
3:24:15at this and thinking, "Okay, my way
3:24:18works. We had a break. We had a comeback
3:24:20down here and we shifted higher. So
3:24:23great, it worked. It's a break. We pull
3:24:24back, we go higher. Well, guess what
3:24:26they do now? They use this as their new
3:24:28low. And then they use this as their,
3:24:31you know, high. And so now what they're
3:24:33trying to do is they're going to be
3:24:34trying to long from like this. They're
3:24:37going to be looking like, well, I'm in
3:24:38the premium of the price, uh, the
3:24:40discount of the price like we have an
3:24:41order block here. Price going to come
3:24:43back into here and trade higher. That's
3:24:44their idea. They're going to do
3:24:46something like this. Maybe they put it
3:24:48down here. Maybe they put it on the low
3:24:50and then they want to go, you know,
3:24:52somewhere [music] up in here. Who knows?
3:24:53But this is somewhat of their idea. But
3:24:56again, they're completely flawed because
3:24:57how I'm seeing this is [music] it's not
3:24:59a high until it's broken. So we have a
3:25:02high, right? Price goes high, low up
3:25:05into here. We pull back, we don't break
3:25:07because we don't break. This is the
3:25:09high. We failed to break it. So this
3:25:10becomes the high, right? Failed to break
3:25:13it. So now
3:25:16this is the high. very very different
3:25:18concept. We do a low to a high to a low
3:25:24to a high. Very very different concepts.
3:25:27So this is my low
3:25:30and then this is the possibly current
3:25:32high if it comes back. If it continues
3:25:33going higher, the high will go higher.
3:25:35[snorts] But this is what the price
3:25:36looks like. So some people are seeing
3:25:38like this. This is the mistake they're
3:25:40making because they don't wait for
3:25:41candle closes. They're trying to long
3:25:42thinking this is their protected low.
3:25:44Now because I know that so many people
3:25:46in the market are doing that to me this
3:25:48is liquidity
3:25:50this is liquidity so I can expect that
3:25:52price will probably trade through this
3:25:54level and then you can look at areas
3:25:56like you know we have a fair value gap
3:25:59in here that's the only real level kind
3:26:01of have this inverted fair value gap and
3:26:03so you could build a trade idea off that
3:26:05you could build a long position again
3:26:07this isn't exactly how I trade I'm just
3:26:09kind of giving you the frameworks of
3:26:10understanding candlestick concept
3:26:12because regardless of how you trade if
3:26:13you can understand how to actually get a
3:26:15bias and what highs and lows to use and
3:26:17how to confirm them. You can trade
3:26:18anything as long as it makes sense. And
3:26:20so you could be more aligned with
3:26:22something like this where you're taking
3:26:24the open of the F value and you're still
3:26:25targeting the highs. Play price
3:26:29begins reversing. Now this is where most
3:26:31of them are trying to get involved in
3:26:32the market
3:26:34and the market sits in their area.
3:26:38Sits in their area.
3:26:40Now they're getting an absorption. So
3:26:42maybe they're thinking that the momentum
3:26:43is slowing down. They get a little run
3:26:45in here. This is probably enticing more
3:26:47people into the market because they
3:26:49believe that this is their low. But for
3:26:50me, it's liquidity, right? That that's
3:26:52not the actual low. Then price runs
3:26:54through, gives them another little bit
3:26:56of a reaction, and then eventually
3:27:02takes them straight out,
3:27:05right?
3:27:07And then you get reaction like that.
3:27:08Like it's not lucky. It's not. It's just
3:27:12it's logic. You confirm something when
3:27:14it breaks.
3:27:16It's confirmed when it's broken. The low
3:27:19to the high. That's my structure. The
3:27:21only possible area that could be of
3:27:23interest in this bullish price leg is
3:27:25the fair value gap. There's no fair
3:27:27value gap in here. There's no fair value
3:27:29gap anywhere other than this fair value
3:27:30gap of these order blocks. And you can
3:27:33use the the body closes. So, it looks
3:27:35perfect. It looks hand selected. It
3:27:37looks amazing.
3:27:38like it's just the logic of following
3:27:40the order flow. But you must use the
3:27:43wicks again. You can see it here. Again,
3:27:44we have a low down here. Look at how
3:27:47price doesn't break below that low. It
3:27:49wicks it, comes out, wicks, it comes
3:27:51out, wicks it, comes out, telling us
3:27:54that it doesn't agree that price should
3:27:56be lower than this price leg. It
3:27:57believes that price should be higher
3:27:58than this level. But this is just a
3:28:00pocket of liquidity for price to fish
3:28:01into before we go. And now we're going
3:28:03to look at an actual trade that's
3:28:06aligned with my actual strategy and
3:28:08showcasing the importance of this break.
3:28:10So what you can see right now is we're
3:28:12on the 50-minut time frame. Now if I
3:28:14just pull us back just a little bit
3:28:15before we get any of these moves. This
3:28:17is the 50-minut time frame. This is how
3:28:19everything is looking. Now structurally,
3:28:22you know, we were bullish, we had a
3:28:23range, we had another shift, and then we
3:28:24had a change of character. So we had a
3:28:26higher high, lower low, but then we had
3:28:29another higher high. So at this point in
3:28:30time, we shift back to bullish. So at
3:28:32the moment of luck in this in New York
3:28:34session, we are bullish. We have a swing
3:28:37low down here. We have a swing high up
3:28:40in here. We're expecting higher prices.
3:28:43Then we also have bear in mind we have
3:28:44NFP on this day. So of course I'm not
3:28:46trading it. This is just pre-context.
3:28:48NFP does this. Now for those who don't
3:28:51know NFP, what NFP often times does is
3:28:54it fishes liquidity above highs to
3:28:56collect liquidity to be able to operate
3:28:58in the opposing direction. Unless
3:29:00there's a clear intentional macro reason
3:29:02as to why NFP would do a certain thing,
3:29:04it's all the time going to fish for
3:29:06liquidity in one side and then fish for
3:29:07the liquidity the other side. But notice
3:29:09that we don't get a break above this
3:29:10high. So, we wick it aggressively. And a
3:29:13lot of people think that that means that
3:29:14we should be expecting higher prices.
3:29:16How many people had buy stops above this
3:29:18high as it gets raided? How many people
3:29:20as it gets raided are trying to buy in
3:29:22that move? Until it's been confirmed, it
3:29:25isn't. And so, we have that aggressive
3:29:27low. We close back into the price range.
3:29:29shows us a obvious and clear rejection
3:29:32that the market doesn't agree that price
3:29:34should be above this high at this moment
3:29:35in time. And so what most people do is
3:29:37they use this high and then they use
3:29:40this low and now they have a new high
3:29:42and maybe they're trying to long from
3:29:44here. Maybe they're not right. But if
3:29:46they are trying to long, well, they get
3:29:48into their position, they have a great
3:29:49little move higher. Everything's going
3:29:51well and then they get destroyed. And
3:29:53here's what happens to them. Because now
3:29:55what they do is now they think that
3:29:56they're bearish. And so now they think
3:29:58that they should sell, right? And again,
3:30:01even a broken clock is right twice a
3:30:03day. So doesn't mean that they're every
3:30:05single time going to be incorrect. It
3:30:06just means that trading is about edge.
3:30:08It's about having a consistent edge over
3:30:10the market. Consistent being the key
3:30:12word, not occasional. So we break to the
3:30:13highs, they're bullish. They break to
3:30:15the lows, they're bearish. They're
3:30:16expecting lower prices.
3:30:20Price begins trading off to the sell
3:30:22side. But now, guess what?
3:30:25they are still bearish on price, right?
3:30:28So, we come into the market in London
3:30:30session. So, this is the session that
3:30:32I'm trading, London session, 2 a.m. to 5
3:30:34a.m. EST. This is before the clock
3:30:36changed. They are looking at the market
3:30:37or a lot of people that make this
3:30:38mistake are looking at the market as
3:30:41bearish. I'm not. I understand that this
3:30:44isn't a break. I understand that the
3:30:45structural level is still like this. So,
3:30:47we are bullish to the high. So, I'm
3:30:49looking for long positions. But there
3:30:51are more than just candlestick closures
3:30:52in my strategy. So, I'll walk you
3:30:54through that. Firstly, if you haven't
3:30:55watched any of my videos, I break my
3:30:56strategy down a lot of times. Pretty
3:30:58simple. Overall, we look for a
3:31:00directional bias. So, what direction is
3:31:02the market going to go using market
3:31:03structure? We're bullish. So, I know
3:31:06that in London session, we're bullish
3:31:08right now. I'm expecting to trade
3:31:10higher. That's my expectation. Then, I
3:31:12need areas of interest to trade from.
3:31:13So, in this scenario, the first thing I
3:31:15do is understand liquidity. I understand
3:31:17that we have buy side liquidity, which
3:31:19is amazing because that's liquidity for
3:31:21me to take trade into. I see a lot of
3:31:24sellside liquidity across these lows. We
3:31:26have one low, two lows, three lows, four
3:31:29lows on Asia low on this kind of
3:31:32intermediary uh New York PM session,
3:31:34lunch session low of the previous day.
3:31:37So what I don't want to do is get
3:31:39trapped like most of the market by
3:31:41chasing going long at London open
3:31:44because there is a lot of stop- losses
3:31:46below this low and the entire purpose of
3:31:49the market is going to gravitate to
3:31:51collect orders. That is how the market
3:31:53maker makes money. It needs liquidity.
3:31:55It needs to facilitate orders. So I do
3:31:58not want to get trapped. So I need to
3:32:00look at something that is below this
3:32:02low. That's when I can start looking at
3:32:03areas of interest. Now for me to get an
3:32:05area of interest, I'm looking at a
3:32:06couple different things. Sometimes it's
3:32:08clean and beautiful. Sometimes it isn't.
3:32:09So I'm looking at these ranges in price,
3:32:11right? You kind of have these ranges
3:32:14before you get the aggression. So you
3:32:16have from this low to this high. That is
3:32:19a range. But we have something
3:32:20interesting. We have midnight open.
3:32:24Actually, the clock's went back. So, the
3:32:25midnight open is here. We have midnight
3:32:28open and we also have a very small and
3:32:31picture perfect order block. Now, I'm
3:32:33not a fan for picture perfect. I don't
3:32:35think the market ever operates picture
3:32:36perfect, but in this scenario, it is. We
3:32:38have a picture perfect order block. We
3:32:40have true day open and we have this
3:32:42range in here. So, pretty much I'm
3:32:44looking for a run into these lows or
3:32:46into these lows or into these lows, a
3:32:48reaction and trade long. That's what I'm
3:32:50looking for. Now, I don't get into my
3:32:52positions just by risk entering. I don't
3:32:55like to set my position just like this
3:32:58and then put my stop loss where here,
3:33:00here, here, here. Doesn't make sense to
3:33:02me. I like confirmation. So, what I do
3:33:04is when price gets into my areas of
3:33:05interest, I have a directional bias. I
3:33:08expect price to go in this direction. I
3:33:10have an area of interest. If price gets
3:33:12into this level, then I will take a
3:33:14deeper look at it. When it gets into
3:33:15these levels, I go to a one minute time
3:33:18frame because remember how we just
3:33:20looked and kind of understood the
3:33:22concept of the order book. Yeah. Well,
3:33:25it's the same thing. If I go to the one
3:33:26minute time frame, I understand what's
3:33:28really going on right now inside of the
3:33:30order flow. I already have my higher
3:33:32time frame understanding. Now, I need to
3:33:35understand the specific details. What I
3:33:37like to see is seller absorption. When
3:33:40price comes into my area, it usually
3:33:42comes in bearish because I like to play
3:33:44continuations. I don't like to trade
3:33:46breakouts. I trade continuations. So
3:33:47when price comes back into my areas,
3:33:49it's usually bearish. So when it gets
3:33:51into my area, I want to see seller
3:33:53absorptions. What is that? You have an
3:33:56area. Price is aggressively bearish
3:33:58coming into your area. But once it gets
3:33:59in there, all of the sellers get
3:34:02absorbed by buyers. You start to see
3:34:04some stagnation and then you get a
3:34:07reaction. So what it means is sellers
3:34:10try to over dominate this area but they
3:34:12can't get past the kind of roadblock the
3:34:15block that buyers put in this area to
3:34:17protect it. And eventually what they do
3:34:18is they stop taking shots. And when they
3:34:22stop taking shots at this area now it's
3:34:25easier for anyone who's buying to push
3:34:28price up because as we looked at the
3:34:29order book there isn't as many orders
3:34:32and so the market is able to flow higher
3:34:35easier. That is what I'm looking for.
3:34:37I'm looking for absorption from buyers
3:34:40to sellers and then a flip from sellers
3:34:43being in control to buyers. And so you
3:34:45can see we're in our area now and we're
3:34:47starting to get that absorption. If we
3:34:49go back to the 15-minute and we kind of
3:34:51put our area of interest back in this
3:34:52level, kind of this entire region price
3:34:55is aggressively bearish. It comes in and
3:34:57then we start slowing down because now
3:34:59we're getting seller absorption, right?
3:35:01Aggressively bearish starts slowing
3:35:03down. But slowing down isn't enough for
3:35:06me. I need to see a shift. So you can
3:35:07see here we run this low. We don't break
3:35:11it, but it's enough to understand that
3:35:12price traded below it. If we can get a
3:35:14run on this high, that for me would be
3:35:16good confirmation that the order flow
3:35:18shifted. Again, you can see seller
3:35:20absorption and then sellers step back
3:35:22into the market. So why would I ever
3:35:24want to be trying to buy if sellers are
3:35:27still in control? Doesn't make sense for
3:35:28me. So I would sit and I would wait. And
3:35:32then you can see we get a reaction from
3:35:34buyers. And this that's occurring right
3:35:36here, this entire thing really is an
3:35:38absorption, right? We're absorbing
3:35:39orders and then what happens? Aggressive
3:35:42buying momentum. Sellers stop trying to
3:35:45attack this level. And when they stop
3:35:47trying to attack, it allows the buy side
3:35:49to take over. Now it's confirmed. Now
3:35:52the present moment order flow is in
3:35:53control. So I can go to a 5minut time
3:35:55frame. I can go to a 50-minut time
3:35:56frame. And pretty much I can just
3:35:58identify the area of interest. It's the
3:36:01same thing. I'm looking for, you know,
3:36:02the sell to buy if it's not too large of
3:36:04a stop size. If it is, I'll look to kind
3:36:06of refine it. So, how large is our stop
3:36:08size? Stop size is 17 and 12 pips. Me, I
3:36:12would rather go for something smaller.
3:36:14You look at longing from in here. Look
3:36:15at protecting your downside. 11 and 1
3:36:17half pip stops. It's not too bad. And
3:36:20then, what are you looking for? Really
3:36:22and truly, you're just looking for the
3:36:23swing low. All I'm looking for is
3:36:25orderflow continuation. We're bullish.
3:36:29I'm expecting another leg, but attention
3:36:32to detail, understanding I don't get
3:36:33trapped by these fake wicks. I don't get
3:36:36trapped by these inducements. And so, we
3:36:39go to a kind of 15-minut time frame,
3:36:40kind of see how it plays out, because
3:36:42what you'll notice is we get an
3:36:44aggressive move, but we haven't breached
3:36:46the high. So, this trade is still
3:36:48technically on. We have overlap and fair
3:36:50value gap in this area as well. And so,
3:36:53that's pretty much it. You can continue
3:36:54watching price play out. Now notice that
3:36:56there was no news right in this area.
3:37:00This very sharp aggressive open in New
3:37:03York session tags straight into the
3:37:06trade that there was no news. It it was
3:37:07pretty wild. But such an aggressive move
3:37:09like that with at least no news, no red
3:37:11folder news or anything like that uh but
3:37:13perfectly into this area and then
3:37:15trading out of it again. It's almost too
3:37:17good to be true. I want to say perfect
3:37:19understand of the market, but I'm not
3:37:20going to make out like I'm a genius. I
3:37:23just have an edge and the edge plays out
3:37:25enough for me to make money. And so we
3:37:27invalidate the fair value gaps. We
3:37:29respect them. We respect the order block
3:37:30and we continue trading higher until
3:37:32eventually and it does take some while
3:37:37because you can see after we do get the
3:37:38reaction price does start kind of
3:37:40rounding back down into this area. Asia
3:37:43opens a little bit kind of round uh
3:37:46rangebound. Now London's beginning to
3:37:48open. We have a manipulation on south
3:37:51side of Asia and then aggressive move
3:37:53out of London and we take out the key
3:37:55level, right? The key old high, the old
Fair Value Gap
3:37:58daily high.
3:38:01The fair value [music] gap is one of the
3:38:03most powerful trading concepts in all of
3:38:06trading. And yet, it's also one of the
3:38:08easiest to get wrong. I see so many
3:38:11traders try to master the fair value gap
3:38:14and yet most of them fail. Starting with
3:38:17part one, what actually is the fair
3:38:20value gap? You see, 99% of traders who
3:38:23try to trade smart money concepts
3:38:25actually fail. And smart money concepts
3:38:28traders are literally being laughed at
3:38:29and actually called dumb money traders.
3:38:32And so, the thing that separates the 1%
3:38:35from everybody else who fails is
3:38:37understanding real context. You see,
3:38:40smart money concepts is just
3:38:42institutional level concepts
3:38:46rewarded, repackaged for retail. The
3:38:49problem, however, is that retail traders
3:38:51just think that it's pattern
3:38:52recognition. The real traders understand
3:38:55[music] context, a narrative. That's
3:38:58what I want to explain to you in this
3:38:59video. So, a market is always trying to
3:39:02trade at fair value. What is fair value?
3:39:05Simply put, fair value or efficient
3:39:08pricing is an area of price where lots
3:39:11of trades can be executed. So if we look
3:39:14on the chart right here, you can see
3:39:15that this is the New York session here,
3:39:17Friday the 24th of October. This is the
3:39:20start of New York session on Euro
3:39:22dollar. You notice here that we have a
3:39:24kind of rangebound price delivery before
3:39:27a very aggressive move towards the
3:39:29upside. Well, this rangebound price
3:39:32delivery is what would be considered as
3:39:34efficient or fair value pricing. What we
3:39:38can see is a lot of transactions get
3:39:40traded at this level. How do we know
3:39:42that? Well, we can just simply use the
3:39:45volume profile. So, we want to get the
3:39:47volume that was traded from the
3:39:49beginning of this New York session to up
3:39:51until where we are right now, which is
3:39:538:45. Now you'll notice here on the
3:39:56right hand side we have the total volume
3:39:59traded at each price level. So you can
3:40:00see the bulk of the volume is traded
3:40:03right here which congregates to this
3:40:06area in here. So what many people fail
3:40:09to understand is that a lot of the times
3:40:12most of the liquidity most of the
3:40:14trading volume is happening in the
3:40:16ranges of price and then notice we have
3:40:18this huge aggressive move toward the
3:40:21upside when we have CPI data come out.
3:40:23But notice something interesting that
3:40:25when this move starts taking off to the
3:40:28height of the level, notice that we have
3:40:30this huge gap in volume. Simply put,
3:40:34there was so little volume traded at
3:40:37this level compared to such a small
3:40:39range here. And yet price exploded
3:40:42towards the buy side. And then you can
3:40:43see that volume comes back into the
3:40:45market after this move has occurred. And
3:40:48then we start trading at this level. Now
3:40:50what is actually going on here? This is
3:40:53real inefficient pricing. So there's two
3:40:56ways to break this down. The first and
3:40:57most important thing that you must
3:40:59understand is that a fair value gap or
3:41:02commonly known in the institutional
3:41:03world as a market inefficiency is
3:41:06essentially an area of price where there
3:41:08is extremely low volume but we still
3:41:11have a movement towards the upside. What
3:41:13that means is that the aggressive buyers
3:41:15at this price point here has controlled
3:41:18price so aggressively toward the buy
3:41:20side and simply put there wasn't many
3:41:24passive sellers in this price point. So
3:41:27essentially very very few market
3:41:28participants specifically sellers at
3:41:31this price leg. Therefore a very small
3:41:34amount of volume was able to drastically
3:41:37change the current value of this market.
3:41:41Now a deeper detail for this specific
3:41:43fair value gap is that this was created
3:41:46from CPI. So what actually happens when
3:41:49you have these high impact news events
3:41:50is that market makers are able to
3:41:53legally pull their liquidity from the
3:41:55market. Now a very brief overview of
3:41:57what a market maker is. A market maker
3:41:59is somebody in the order book who
3:42:01provides liquidity on both the buy and
3:42:03sell side pretty much at most price
3:42:05levels so that other traders can get
3:42:07filled on their transactions. And then
3:42:10this market maker is rewarded by taking
3:42:13the spread. That's how market makers
3:42:15make money. Now a market maker for
3:42:17example is a citadel. Citadel actually
3:42:20makes most markets. It actually has a
3:42:22very high total volume of the overall
3:42:25market making. It's one of its largest
3:42:27kind of arms of its business. So those
3:42:29market makers are able to come out of
3:42:32the market at that price point and
3:42:34remove their liquidity from the order
3:42:35book. When that liquidity gets removed
3:42:37from the order book, it makes it very
3:42:39easy for a small amount of aggressive
3:42:41buyers at that time to push price higher
3:42:45and very fast because there is so few
3:42:47passive sellers at that price point. And
3:42:50that's the way an order book works. Now,
3:42:51what happens after that fact is that
3:42:54there is this gap, right? And from a
3:42:57technical standpoint and how most people
3:42:59view a fair value gap or an inefficiency
3:43:02is with a three candle formation. So
3:43:05what you want to see is you want to see
3:43:08a an aggressive candle is usually the
3:43:10first one and a kind of explosive candle
3:43:12but it's a three candle formation. So we
3:43:14have candle number one in here and then
3:43:17we have candle number two up here
3:43:22right and then we have candle number
3:43:24three which is here. So if I remove this
3:43:27gap for a second those are our three
3:43:29candles. Now what you will do is you
3:43:31will take in a bullish example the high
3:43:33of candle one and the low of candle
3:43:37three. Notice that they do not touch.
3:43:40This third candle in here and this first
3:43:42candle in here do not meet. That is
3:43:44essentially the potential for
3:43:46inefficient pricing or what you could
3:43:48call a fair value gap. So you would
3:43:50simply mark the first candle high and
3:43:52the third candle low and that area right
3:43:56there would be your fair value gap. And
3:43:59to confirm that level, simply just
3:44:01understand the total volume that was
3:44:02traded at this level and you will see
3:44:04that there is a huge gap essentially in
3:44:08the overall volume. That gap is
3:44:10inefficient pricing. Now the theory is
3:44:13is that price will want to trade back
3:44:16into this price leg at some point to
3:44:19essentially offer price or reoffer price
3:44:22at this price leg because again price
3:44:25has skipped a beat. So imagine if you
3:44:28are a buyer or a seller in the market
3:44:30and you actually wanted to buy or sell
3:44:32at this level. You just wasn't actually
3:44:34available at that time or maybe your
3:44:36orders actually didn't get triggered
3:44:38because there were so few other orders
3:44:40in the order book. Let's say you were a
3:44:42passive buyer but there was no sellside
3:44:44liquidity. So essentially what happens a
3:44:46lot of the time is there's a lot of
3:44:49traders that were not filled at these
3:44:52prices that may may have wanted to get
3:44:54filled at those prices. So a lot of the
3:44:56times price will regravitate back toward
3:44:58this level and a lot of the times close
3:45:01at least half or sometimes even the
3:45:03whole gap of price which is essentially
3:45:06price just reoffering at that price
3:45:08seeen as though many traders were not
3:45:10able to transact at that level. There
3:45:12were so few trades transacted at that
3:45:14level the market wants to reoffer price
3:45:17at that level. Very very simple. So
3:45:19that's why a lot of the times you'll see
3:45:20these these gaps, right? And you want to
3:45:22validate them with understanding what
3:45:24the actual volume at that price level
3:45:26is. That is a fair value gap. Now into
3:45:29part two, I'm going to reveal to you how
3:45:31to actually understand when to trade
3:45:34fair value gaps and what fair value gap
3:45:36to trade. As we look at the market here,
3:45:39I'll be honest, we can see that there
3:45:41are literally hundreds of fair value
3:45:44gaps that occur on any kind of one given
3:45:46daily basis depending on what time frame
3:45:48you're looking at. Now, why is it then
3:45:50that so few of them actually hold? I
3:45:54mean, if we just literally look at this
3:45:55market right now, you will see so many
3:45:56fair value gaps and you'll see some hold
3:45:59and some not hold. The thing is is there
3:46:01are distinct tells of whether a fair
3:46:04value gap is really a fair value gap
3:46:06that price will hold and that's what I
3:46:08want to break down to you right now. So
3:46:10essentially we just spoke about this
3:46:12fair value gap that was created from CPI
3:46:14on Friday the 24th of October right
3:46:16which is a couple of days ago as of
3:46:18recording this. Now notice that we have
3:46:21this fair value gap and actually me and
3:46:23my live trading members some of us took
3:46:26these trades from here literally just
3:46:28trading back into this fair value gap
3:46:29because we knew that the likelihood is
3:46:31is that gap is going to get filled. Now
3:46:33notice when I come into the market
3:46:35today, right, Monday the 27th of
3:46:38October, this is how the session looks.
3:46:40This is how price actually looks, right?
3:46:41We have yesterday, we have the Friday's
3:46:44price leg. We come into the end of
3:46:46Friday, we have this range. Notice as
3:46:48well, right, that this range here makes
3:46:51up the majority of the total volume,
3:46:54right? So don't be confused. Ranges
3:46:56don't equal low volume and big moves
3:46:58equal high volume. That's not
3:47:00necessarily true. So, we have this right
3:47:02here. Now, there's a couple telltale
3:47:04signs of how I was able to catch this
3:47:07trade this morning that still hasn't
3:47:08fully completed, but I'll break it down
3:47:10anyway. So, we want to identify the best
3:47:13fair value gap to trade. Now, notice
3:47:16here that we had this fair value gap and
3:47:19notice that the majority of that fair
3:47:21value gap has been filled. Now, most
3:47:23traders, if they didn't have the volume
3:47:25profile, would actually think that this
3:47:27fair value gap is essentially just now
3:47:29finished, right? It's useless. But if
3:47:31you look carefully, you'll see that this
3:47:33candle right here, the first candle that
3:47:36initiated this move, still hasn't been
3:47:38traded into yet. And so from the lowest
3:47:40point that we come, which is literally
3:47:42right here, you can see that there's
3:47:44still actually a fair value gap here.
3:47:46And if you slide this fair value gap
3:47:48across, notice what we have on the
3:47:50overall volume. We have a very low
3:47:53volume area, which is essentially a
3:47:56market inefficiency. And so if we just
3:47:58look at this overall area, we mark out a
3:48:00fair value gap and we have this
3:48:03inefficiency. This is the first sign of
3:48:07a good fair value gap. Right? The second
3:48:11sign of a good fair value gap is the
3:48:13overall trend of price. This is the most
3:48:16important and honestly most simple. If
3:48:19we look at the directional kind of bias
3:48:22of this market, we are very clearly
3:48:24bullish, right? We were in this
3:48:26downtrend. and we're putting in lower
3:48:27lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower
3:48:29highs, lower lows. And then eventually
3:48:31this is my kind of swing high. We take
3:48:34out this high and we become bullish,
3:48:36right? So we're actually bullish coming
3:48:39into today. That's the most important
3:48:41thing. You have to understand what's the
3:48:42likelihood of price trading higher or
3:48:46lower in this one session. And the key
3:48:48telltale sign of what that is is going
3:48:50to be your market structure. So the
3:48:52second key after identifying the actual
3:48:55validated fair value gap from the volume
3:48:58inefficiency is the overall trend of
3:49:00price. You have to trade in alignment
3:49:03with the [clears throat] overall
3:49:04direction of price. Point blank period.
3:49:06It's a complete non-negotiable. You will
3:49:08be surprised at how many people try to
3:49:09short when the market is bullish. And
3:49:11it's very evident like if you look at
3:49:13the fair value gaps that come to the
3:49:16left when we're trending bullish,
3:49:18right? You can see in here we have all
3:49:23of these bearish fair value gaps that
3:49:26are getting formed
3:49:28at these price points and eventually all
3:49:32of them get traded through because fair
3:49:35value gaps are great but they have to be
3:49:37traded in alignment with understanding
3:49:40the overall context of price. So when
3:49:42I'm coming into the market today the
3:49:44first thing honestly that I'm looking
3:49:45for is low to high bullish. Okay, second
3:49:50thing point of interest which is my fair
3:49:53value gap in here which I've just
3:49:55explained to you. Now another thing and
3:49:58a very important thing is liquidity
3:50:00right? So notice here that on these lows
3:50:02we have equal lows down here we have an
3:50:05old low down here. Now these equal lows
3:50:08this old low here represents to me
3:50:10liquidity. We have Asia low as well. So
3:50:12for me all the time I need to see a
3:50:15liquidation of price. What I like to see
3:50:17is I like to see liquidity get built at
3:50:19a certain price leg and then sweep that
3:50:22liquidity into my point of interest. So,
3:50:24I like to see price sweep into a point
3:50:27of interest. That's the third thing. And
3:50:29the second part of the third thing is
3:50:31liquidity to target, right? Liquidity to
3:50:34take, liquidity to target. You've heard
3:50:36me say it before. Liquidity to take down
3:50:38here on the sell side. Liquidity to
3:50:40target is the high of the previous week.
3:50:44It's the high of the previous day. It's
3:50:47the high of the Friday session. It's the
3:50:50high of New York session. And we have
3:50:53Asia high here creating an relative
3:50:56equal high across here. So this is a
3:50:59very very obvious point that price will
3:51:02want to revisit. And so this trade setup
3:51:04becomes literally super simple to me.
3:51:07Now if I didn't have these, right, if I
3:51:09just had a fair value gap or just a fair
3:51:11value gap, I wouldn't know which way to
3:51:14go. Right? There's fair value gaps in
3:51:16here. Should I trade those? Should I
3:51:17trade these fair value gaps? What about
3:51:18these ones? Right? Just understanding
3:51:21fair value gap and seeing them in the
3:51:23market isn't enough. You have to have
3:51:25context. And so for me, the context is
3:51:27the direction of price, right? Bullish
3:51:30is the the low volume in here, the
3:51:34context of what this move represents,
3:51:37the liquidity that we're going to take
3:51:38out on the way, and the liquidity that
3:51:41we're going to target. So trend
3:51:43verification of a fair value gap plus
3:51:46the top level in here. that makes an
3:51:49actual good fair value gap.
5 Rule SMC Strategy
3:51:54To make money consistently in trading,
3:51:56you need a trading strategy that is
3:51:58repeatable, [music] systematic, so it's
3:52:01rule-based and very simple to understand
3:52:03and easy to use. In this video today,
3:52:05I'm going to break down with you my
3:52:07trading strategy. And this is a strategy
3:52:09that I've used for the past 4 years. I
3:52:12have all of the data for the strategy
3:52:13that I'm going to share with you in just
3:52:14a moment. It's also the trading strategy
3:52:16that hundreds of my students have used
3:52:18to go on and take crazy amounts of
3:52:20payouts. So, what you're seeing on
3:52:22screen now is the trade that we're going
3:52:24to be breaking down at the end of this
3:52:27video. It's the trade that I took. It's
3:52:29the trade that many of my inner circle
3:52:31students took. On the right hand side,
3:52:32you'll see fivestep SMC strategy and
3:52:34you'll see the five rules of my system.
3:52:37I'm going to be breaking down each of
3:52:38these rules and then at the end, we're
3:52:39going to take all of our rules and
3:52:41follow them step by step till we have a
3:52:43trading strategy that is working. Now,
3:52:44just before we dive into my five rules
3:52:47for this strategy, I need to tell you
3:52:48something that I wish someone had told
3:52:50me six years ago when I started trading.
3:52:51A trading strategy alone will not make
3:52:54you money. There are more important
3:52:55things than trading strategy. Because
3:52:57the reality is there are millions of
3:52:59traders that have a strategy that works
3:53:01but still aren't able to make money from
3:53:03trading. In fact, [music] the reality is
3:53:04is you've probably seen trading
3:53:05strategies that already work, but you
3:53:07still don't make money from trading. And
3:53:09that's because there are [music] more
3:53:10important things than strategy that I
3:53:12want to break down for you. So again,
3:53:14I'll leave the link in the description.
3:53:15[music] It's free. Enjoy. And now I'm
3:53:17going to show you the data to prove
3:53:18that. So here I am in my Tradzella and I
3:53:21want to share with you my playbooks.
3:53:23This is the strategy I'm going to be
3:53:24sharing with you today is the intraday
3:53:26bias model, right? It's my best
3:53:27performing strategy. You can see here
3:53:28I've taken 230 trades. This starts at
3:53:31the beginning of 2023. So from 2023 up
3:53:35to today, 2025, 230 trades, 216%
3:53:40return, right? So, we're averaging over
3:53:42I believe it's like over 10% a month
3:53:44with this model traded perfectly. You
3:53:46can see here all of the data on the
3:53:48model. If I go into here, you can see
3:53:51these are the stats of the trade, right?
3:53:53You can see from the beginning of 2023,
3:53:55very healthy equity curve. You can see
3:53:56day win rate. You can see trades taken,
3:53:59win rate of the system. A huge
3:54:00misconception is I have a 33% win rate.
3:54:02People think that that's a bad thing.
3:54:03People just don't understand trading.
3:54:05Win rate alone is useless. You need win
3:54:07rate plus average risk-to-reward. You
3:54:09can see here I have a 6.23 average win
3:54:12to- loss ratio. Meaning for every one
3:54:14trade I lose, on average I win 6.23,
3:54:19right? So if I risk $1,000, then on
3:54:22average I will make 6.23 times my loss,
3:54:26right? Which my risk, which is $1,000.
3:54:28Yeah, this is all the data. Really don't
3:54:30need to go into too much detail about
3:54:31it. It's years and years of data with
3:54:33one model. And now we're going to show
3:54:35you exactly what that model is. So let's
3:54:37dive in. So my first rule is directional
3:54:39bias and essentially what directional
3:54:40bias means my primary objective when I
3:54:43come into the market is I need to
3:54:44understand which direction is the market
3:54:46going to trade in and then I need to
3:54:47trade with that direction. It's very
3:54:49simple market trend and you want to
3:54:50trade with that trend. It's the oldest
3:54:52saying in the book right the trend is
3:54:53your friend. But the reality is is you
3:54:54will make the most money when you trade
3:54:55with the direction the market is heading
3:54:57towards. But you need a way to
3:54:58understand what that direction is. So
3:55:00step one simple directional bias. Very
3:55:03very simple to understand to be totally
3:55:04honest with you. The market moves in
3:55:06phases, right? We have bullish phases,
3:55:09right? So, we have these kind of
3:55:11expansion phases. We have consolidation
3:55:13phases, right? And then we have bearish
3:55:16expansion phases. All you need to do is
3:55:18understand the external swing points of
3:55:21structure and use those as your
3:55:22directional anchor. It simply means just
3:55:25find the areas of price where we see
3:55:28reversals. So, you can see here price
3:55:30puts in a high and then we reverse from
3:55:32this high. We put in this low. We
3:55:34reverse from this low. We put in a new
3:55:35high. We reverse from this high. We put
3:55:38in a new low. We reverse from this low.
3:55:39We put in a new high. All of the
3:55:41reversal points. It's that simple. And
3:55:43that is what makes up your market
3:55:45structure. And it's a very simple thing
3:55:46that if your swing points are getting
3:55:50progressively higher, then the market is
3:55:52bullish and you want to look for longs.
3:55:54It's really that simple. When you get
3:55:56this high, at this point, you want to
3:55:58wait for price to start coming back and
3:56:00you want to identify this area here and
3:56:02you want to buy from that level. And I'm
3:56:04going to show you exactly how you do
3:56:05that. But that is literally how simple
3:56:06it is. Again, it needs to be stupidly
3:56:08simple. So many traders are over
3:56:10complicating trading today. And that's
3:56:11the reason that so many traders are
3:56:13failing because they think it should be
3:56:14complicated. Something that I struggled
3:56:16with when I simplified my trading, I
3:56:18became so much more profitable so much
3:56:19faster. Eventually, what happens is
3:56:21after we've had a period of, you know,
3:56:23aggressive expansion, right? or
3:56:25contraction. At some point in time,
3:56:26you'll kind of meet an area of
3:56:28consolidation. That's where price goes
3:56:30into this little bit of a choppy range
3:56:31where it's kind of undecided. Maybe you
3:56:33spend a couple of days between, let's
3:56:35say, we have a low down here and a high
3:56:37up here, right? And then price is just
3:56:39kind of spending its time not breaking
3:56:41out of the highs, but also not breaking
3:56:42out of the lows, right? This is an area
3:56:44where there's a lot of fair value
3:56:46created. When you see price trading at
3:56:49the same level and not really breaking
3:56:50out of a high or breaking out of a low,
3:56:52what it means is that buyers and sellers
3:56:53are pretty much in agreement that price
3:56:55should be at this level at this given
3:56:57time. And so a lot of volume gets traded
3:56:59at these areas because again both
3:57:02parties are mutually agreeing that this
3:57:04is a fair value for price. These are the
3:57:05areas that again they're uncertain
3:57:07areas. These are the areas you really
3:57:09want to be avoiding. At least for me in
3:57:10this strategy, I don't want to trade in
3:57:12these consolidative areas unless I can
3:57:14identify the swing areas. Usually what
3:57:16you see is after some type of range,
3:57:18right? We'll maybe get a continuation
3:57:20which is possible. You may also get a
3:57:22reversal. A reversal is essentially we
3:57:24had a low here that put in this high
3:57:26which is higher. So what happens is
3:57:28every time that we put in a new high,
3:57:30right, we go low high, we pull back, we
3:57:32go higher high. So when we break this
3:57:34old high, right, that becomes a breaker
3:57:36structure. Now what happens is this low
3:57:39that broke that high and the high that
3:57:42gets created that's now your range. And
3:57:44then price comes back, puts in a new
3:57:47higher low, and then when it breaks
3:57:49above that high, that again is a
3:57:51breakoff structure. And so that becomes
3:57:53your new range. Now you have this low
3:57:55here to this high. And you're expecting
3:57:58that price is probably going to come
3:57:59back down a little bit and then trade
3:58:00above this high. Plain and simple. Now,
3:58:02what ends up happening a lot of the
3:58:04times at some point in time, you will
3:58:06have a reversal, which I refer to as a
3:58:08change of character, right? Think of
3:58:10character as a bull and a bear. two
3:58:13characters of the market. The bull
3:58:15represents increase in price, higher
3:58:17prices. The bear represents decrease in
3:58:19prices, lower prices. When you have a
3:58:20change of character, that's essentially
3:58:22saying that the bull was in control,
3:58:24price was increasing, and then the
3:58:26character shifts and now the bear is in
3:58:27control, price is decreasing. Very, very
3:58:29simple stuff. So, we have a change of
3:58:31character and that happens when the low
3:58:34that put in the most recent high is
3:58:37broken and traded through. And so
3:58:39instead of having a higher low and a
3:58:41higher high, we actually end up getting
3:58:43a lower low. So this low right here is
3:58:45lower than the previous low. That is a
3:58:47change of character. At that point,
3:58:48price has likely shifted bearish. And so
3:58:50what do you think you're looking for?
3:58:51You're looking for sells, right? It's
3:58:53really that simple. You're just looking
3:58:54to sell the market. At that point, you
3:58:56go lower low, probably lower high, and
3:58:58then lower low, right? Break of
3:59:00structure, lower low, lower high, lower
3:59:03low, break of structure. And now you're
3:59:06in a trend. And now this is your swing
3:59:08high. So you want to sell as long as
3:59:10price stays below that low. This is your
3:59:11swing low. When you sell, you want to
3:59:14trade into that low. You only trade on
3:59:16the pullback. So when price starts
3:59:17coming back up here, you patiently wait
3:59:20for your time to enter, which I'm going
3:59:22to tell you what that is in step five.
3:59:23And then when that signal occurs, you
3:59:26try to trade short. And you trade short
3:59:28toward this low. That is literally the
3:59:30strategy. There's a few minor details
3:59:31and things I need to explain that makes
3:59:33it better to understand, but in short,
3:59:35that's a strategy. I mean, we're selling
3:59:37a bearish market and we're buying a
3:59:39bullish market with a very simple
3:59:40reversal model. So, that's step one.
3:59:42Now, the reality is is that the market
3:59:44doesn't always look that clean, right? A
3:59:46lot of the times you'll have price
3:59:47action like this because it's easy for
3:59:50someone to say, "Yeah, just buy the
3:59:51bullish trend." The problem that, you
3:59:53know, 99% of traders have is they don't
3:59:56really know how to identify the trend.
3:59:59They're looking for these swing points,
4:00:00but most of the time they're choosing
4:00:01the wrong ones. And the reason for that
4:00:03is because the market isn't as simple as
4:00:05the diagram that I just showed you. In
4:00:07fact, the market a lot of the times
4:00:08looks more like this. And for some
4:00:11reason, for most people, this is often
4:00:13times confusing. But I'm going to
4:00:14simplify it for you right now. You can
4:00:16see here we start with the low, right?
4:00:19Price trades higher and then we put in a
4:00:20high. So at that point, we have our set
4:00:22points. We have a low down here and we
4:00:25have a high up in here, right? Let's
4:00:27already assume that we are bullish,
4:00:28right? So let's just assume that this
4:00:30was the price action. We broke structure
4:00:33toward the buy side. So, we were
4:00:34bullish. So, now what we have is we have
4:00:36the low that's in control is here. The
4:00:39high that's in control is here and we're
4:00:41bullish. The directional bias is
4:00:43bullish. That's what we're looking for.
4:00:45Now, what happens to a lot of traders
4:00:47for one reason or another is they start
4:00:49using this in here, this structure. And
4:00:52what they see is they see that these
4:00:53structure prices, and I'm going to show
4:00:55you this in the actual live market in a
4:00:56moment, but for some reason, they see
4:00:58these structural levels. price puts in a
4:01:00low, puts in a high here. Oh, okay. Now
4:01:03we have a lower low and they look at
4:01:04this and they try to trade this internal
4:01:06structure. And so they're trying to sell
4:01:08here, but when in reality price is still
4:01:10bullish. And so people get confused with
4:01:11these structure points and you need to
4:01:13understand which one is which. And so my
4:01:15framework of thinking is very simple.
4:01:18You have a swing low, you have a swing
4:01:20high. As long as price is inside of this
4:01:22box, it's internal structure. So when
4:01:24price breaks these structure points, we
4:01:26don't try to short. We're waiting for
4:01:28confirmation to go long. Eventually, at
4:01:30some point in time, price breaks above
4:01:32this high. Right? That's a break of
4:01:33structure. Now, with the same box that
4:01:35you had to understand what the internal
4:01:37structure was
4:01:39when we break that high and then that
4:01:41high begins to produce a reversal like
4:01:43this. Now, we need to identify our swing
4:01:45low. And all we have to do is go into
4:01:48the box and find the lowest point before
4:01:50the expansion. And that's our swing
4:01:52point. And so, that right there becomes
4:01:54our swing low. And so, now we have a new
4:01:55structural leg. We have swing low down
4:01:58here and we have swing high up here. And
4:02:00the same thing is true. We are just
4:02:01expecting higher prices. But the problem
4:02:03is is again for some reason is okay sure
4:02:06maybe you're not the type of trader that
4:02:07trades this structure, right? Cuz it's
4:02:09it's simple to you. You see bullish and
4:02:12still bullish. Maybe you're the type of
4:02:13trader then that in this expansion phase
4:02:16like this when price comes below this
4:02:19low, you now think that we've shifted
4:02:21bearish, right? A lot of traders do this
4:02:23as well. They think that this is a
4:02:24change of character. And what happens
4:02:25unfortunately is when they see this as a
4:02:28change of character, they try to start,
4:02:30you know, shorting the market and they
4:02:32try to start shorting the market, you
4:02:34know, highs in here or highs in here and
4:02:37trying to trade lower. But the truth is
4:02:39is price is bullish, right? So you're on
4:02:41the wrong side of the market. And I
4:02:42think personally the number one mistake
4:02:44that traders make is not understanding
4:02:46which direction the market's going to
4:02:48trade into. If you can understand that,
4:02:49you're good. And so this isn't a change
4:02:51of character. It's just a liquidation.
4:02:53Why? because the swing low is down here.
4:02:57Here's the low. So, if this low gets
4:02:59taken out, we're still bullish because
4:03:01we're bullish until this low gets
4:03:02broken. So, that's the reason that, you
4:03:04know, most people don't understand
4:03:05directional bias is because they get
4:03:07stuck in these internal levels. And I'll
4:03:08show you this right now in the actual
4:03:10market. So, you can see that we're
4:03:12bullish,
4:03:14right? At this point in time, you're
4:03:16expecting higher prices. Now, what
4:03:17happens is we end up shifting these lows
4:03:20and so we become bearish, which is no
4:03:22big deal. That happens a lot. the time
4:03:24after a long bullish run would become
4:03:26bearish. We have a change of character.
4:03:27So now we are looking for shorts. It's
4:03:30very simple. Our swing high is here and
4:03:33our swing low is here. Right? Both of
4:03:35the reversal points. This is the high.
4:03:37Price reversed. It met this low. Price
4:03:39reversed. So we're bearish. So that's
4:03:42our swing high in here. This is our
4:03:45swing low. We are just expecting price
4:03:48to take out this low as long as it
4:03:50remains below this high. It's that
4:03:52simple. replay price,
4:03:58you will see that now we have broken
4:04:00below that low. And so again, remember
4:04:02the box method, right? If we have from
4:04:04this high in here to this low down here
4:04:06and we just draw it across, everything
4:04:07inside of this box was internal until we
4:04:10broke the low, we have to find the
4:04:11highest point before price breaks this
4:04:13low, which is where, which is right
4:04:15here, right? The high of this Asia
4:04:17session. So now we have the swing high
4:04:19that breaks the swing low. So that's a
4:04:20breaker structure. And now we're
4:04:22starting to see this low produce a
4:04:23reversal. Now it's definitely a
4:04:25reversal. So this is our swing low down
4:04:28here. Again, what are we expecting? This
4:04:30is our high.
4:04:33This is our low. We're just expecting
4:04:35price to trade toward this low and
4:04:38remain below that high. That's our bias,
4:04:41right? We can see here is that price
4:04:43reaches this high, fails to break above
4:04:46that high.
4:04:49again fails to break above that high
4:04:51again and then has the aggressive
4:04:53sell-off and then we break this low
4:04:55break of structure. So now what we have
4:04:57is new structure, right? We have our
4:05:00swing here because we're creating equal
4:05:02highs. It's basically the same area of
4:05:04structure. So now what we have is we
4:05:07have a new swing range. We have the low
4:05:10down here and we have obviously the high
4:05:12up here. So it's the same thing again.
4:05:14We've had the reversal. We're just
4:05:16expecting that price will revisit these
4:05:18lows and that's our readon structure.
4:05:20And all of this time I'm just trying to
4:05:22short the market providing that the
4:05:23other steps of the system align which
4:05:26we'll get into. So again we can see that
4:05:28this was our swing high. We had our
4:05:30swing low down here. What happens? Price
4:05:33comes back up to here before eventually
4:05:37selling off and what taking out the low.
4:05:40So then what happens? Price begins to
4:05:42reverse. So now we have what? new swing
4:05:45structure, right? We have a swing high
4:05:47because it's the highest point before
4:05:48the break. And then we have our swing
4:05:52low, high low, price comes back up, we
4:05:57start trading back down. Now, this for
4:05:58me is not a break because it is just a
4:06:01wick. It has to break below that low.
4:06:03Then it breaks below the low. So now our
4:06:06new swing high becomes here. And again,
4:06:08all we're trying to do in this market is
4:06:10just sell at certain areas with certain
4:06:12confirmation. So, we have a high, we
4:06:14break down to the low. So, that's our
4:06:16swing high. What happens? Price starts
4:06:18to pull back. So, now we found our new
4:06:20low.
4:06:23That low gets broken here. Where's the
4:06:25highest point? Price comes high, starts
4:06:28trading through, comes back up, goes
4:06:30higher, and then trades and breaks the
4:06:32low. So, and then it begins a reversal.
4:06:36So, we have this is our low,
4:06:39and this is our high. Price puts in a
4:06:41high
4:06:43in here,
4:06:45ranges around, then it breaks the low.
4:06:48Then you come in and guess what? Now you
4:06:51have your swing high, which is up here,
4:06:55and your swing low. And then guess what?
4:06:57We're just looking for shorts. When I
4:06:58see my confirmation, which I'm going to
4:07:00share with you later, this is the type
4:07:01of trade that you get. And bear in mind,
4:07:03this is one trade. There has been many
4:07:05of these types of trades in all of this
4:07:07price action once you just understand
4:07:09exactly what the rest of the steps are.
4:07:11So that is directional bias, right? Very
4:07:13clear to see that we just trade in
4:07:15alignment with this trend. We don't need
4:07:16to try and trade against it because the
4:07:18trend is obviously in control. So moving
4:07:21on to rule number two, we've done
4:07:23directional bias. Rule number two is
4:07:26time and price. You see, there are
4:07:29specific time windows that I execute my
4:07:32strategy in. Those time windows are as
4:07:34follows. For London, we can trade
4:07:38from 2:00 a.m.
4:07:43to
4:07:465 a.m. That's Eastern Standard Time. We
4:07:51can only trade inside of that window. If
4:07:53there is a trade that sets itself up at
4:07:561:58, I cannot take that trade. If there
4:07:58was a trade that sets itself up at 5:05
4:08:00a.m., I cannot take that trade. Just
4:08:03inside of that window, I can take that
4:08:05trade. The second window that we have is
4:08:087 to 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, so
4:08:11New York time. So, I have 3 hours in
4:08:12London, from 2:00 to 5:00 a.m., and I
4:08:15have 3 hours in New York, from 7 to
4:08:1710:00 a.m. Now, here's the truth. This
4:08:19strategy has relatively equal results
4:08:22across each time window. Some people can
4:08:24only trade London. Some people could
4:08:26only trade New York. It's completely
4:08:27okay if you just have 3 hours a day to
4:08:29trade. You can still take this and still
4:08:31get the same results because the results
4:08:32are split across both of these sessions.
4:08:35I personally like to trade both of them
4:08:37for the most part. So 2 to 5:00 a.m. for
4:08:39London session and 7 to 10:00 a.m. for
4:08:42New York session. Now we move into step
4:08:45three, right? Which is my third rule.
4:08:47Now my third rule states that in order
4:08:50for me to take a trade, I must see a
4:08:52liquidation first. What does that
4:08:54actually mean? What a liquidation is is
4:08:56a key area of price gets taken out
4:08:59before my trade enters. So if we look at
4:09:02this trade here that I'm going to be
4:09:03breaking down at the end, notice in this
4:09:05blue box right here is Asia session,
4:09:08right? In the green box is my London
4:09:10window. You can see 2 to 5 and my New
4:09:12York is 7 to 10. So this blue box here
4:09:16is Asia session. So if I want to trade
4:09:19in London session for example, like I do
4:09:21this short here comes in London session.
4:09:23for me to trade this setup right bearish
4:09:27I first need to see Asia session get
4:09:29taken out so for example if we're
4:09:31bearish like this
4:09:33and then let's say you know we have this
4:09:36range here
4:09:38is Asia and then let's say London
4:09:41session opens up and I get all of my
4:09:43confirmation but we don't take out that
4:09:45Asia session high I cannot trade so this
4:09:47right here is going to represent our
4:09:50Asia and then London opens and it gives
4:09:53me everything that everything else I
4:09:55want to see. But we don't trade above
4:09:58this high first. I cannot take that
4:10:00trade because in order for me to take
4:10:02that trade, I need to see a liquidation.
4:10:04And a liquidation in this model is the
4:10:07Asia high. So here I need to see this
4:10:09Asia session high here be taken out
4:10:11before I look for a trade. And if we are
4:10:13bullish for example, right, let's say
4:10:15the market was bullish, the same thing
4:10:17is true. If price is bullish like so and
4:10:20the Asia session is in here, if London
4:10:23opens, it gives me everything I need to
4:10:25see. I still cannot trade that because
4:10:28Asia session high remains not taken out.
4:10:31So if we have Asia like that, for
4:10:32example, and then London session, you
4:10:35know, is expansive like so. I still
4:10:38can't take that trade. I would need to
4:10:40see this happen, right? And then then I
4:10:43could take that trade. So step three is
4:10:47liquidation. I need to see a liquidation
4:10:49and for my London model it's typically
4:10:52Asia or Frankfurt. Now rule number four
4:10:55is reversal confirmation. So what a
4:10:58reversal confirmation is is we may be
4:11:00bearish like for example you know before
4:11:03we take this trade right let's go before
4:11:04this trade is entered. This is what the
4:11:07market looks like. We are obviously
4:11:09bearish. However, we don't know that
4:11:12price is going to take out this low
4:11:14right now. So, if we just start selling
4:11:16all the time, we could end up taking
4:11:19five 6 7 8 nine trades and they could
4:11:22all just trade straight through us
4:11:23because for all we know, price could
4:11:25come all the way up here, right, before
4:11:28it trades back down here. And also,
4:11:30another truth is we don't know for sure
4:11:33that price is going to take out this
4:11:34low. We just don't know that that's the
4:11:35highest probability. there's more than a
4:11:3750% chance that it will take out that
4:11:38low based on historical data. So for all
4:11:40we know, we could trade through this
4:11:42level. So what we need to see is
4:11:44confirmation that price is going to
4:11:46reverse and then that reversal will
4:11:48indicate a higher probability that yes,
4:11:51now it is time to trade toward this low.
4:11:54And for that my reversal confirmation is
4:11:56a very very simple thing. You see I use
4:11:57the 15-minut time frame for my strategy.
4:12:00The higher time frame my lower time
4:12:02frame is 1 minute. So if I for example
4:12:05am bearish like this now when the market
4:12:08coming back up like this right we hit
4:12:10this low we start trading higher guess
4:12:12what's going to happen if we go to the
4:12:13one minute time frame and we look at
4:12:14this the one minute is going to be
4:12:17bullish you can already see it the one
4:12:19minute
4:12:21right is bullish
4:12:23putting in these higher highs
4:12:27right all the way up until you know we
4:12:29come into London session
4:12:31you can see that the one minute is
4:12:33bullish
4:12:34and the current structural landscape of
4:12:36the 1 minute. We have a swing low down
4:12:38here and we have a swing high up here.
4:12:42We break structure.
4:12:45So, we're bullish. So, if the one minute
4:12:47time frame is bullish, but the 15-minut
4:12:49is bearish, we do not look to trade yet.
4:12:52What we need to see is this low get
4:12:54taken out. We need to see the 1 minute
4:12:56also shift bearish with the 15-minute.
4:12:58And so, then we have something that
4:12:59looks a little bit like this, right?
4:13:01Let's say you have the main time frame,
4:13:02you know, your 50-minut time frame is
4:13:04like this. And then as price starts to
4:13:07come back up, your one minute time frame
4:13:08is bullish. You don't know when price
4:13:10gonna reverse. If you just see, you sell
4:13:12short here and then price tra. You might
4:13:14sell short again, price trades higher,
4:13:16right? You could take multiple losses in
4:13:18a row. And like I said, for all we know,
4:13:20we might end up seeing price shift back
4:13:22to bullish. And so all of a sudden, you
4:13:24might have just taken six, seven, eight,
4:13:26nine, 10 losses because you couldn't
4:13:28wait for the confirmation. And that's
4:13:29what we see so much. We see traders that
4:13:32don't know how to confirm their trades
4:13:34and so they keep taking loads of losses
4:13:37on a trade. So you simply wait as price
4:13:39pulls back up. The one minute is
4:13:42bullish. At some point the one minute
4:13:44will shift bearish. When that one minute
4:13:46shifts bearish now you can trade and you
4:13:49simply just trade off the back of that
4:13:50one minute reversal and you take it down
4:13:52to the swing low down here. Right? That
4:13:54is how we could get a higher win rate
4:13:56and a higher riskreward. That's why our
4:13:58average win to loss ratio is 6.23
4:14:01because we use this lower time frame.
4:14:03We're scaling down to get a more
4:14:04accurate kind of sniper entry if you'd
4:14:07like. And so that is our lower time
4:14:10frame confirmation. So let's say for
4:14:12example we break below this low like
4:14:15that. Well now the 1 minute is no longer
4:14:17bullish. The 1 minute is bearish. We
4:14:19have our liquidation of Asia session
4:14:20high. Now we're good to trade. And now
4:14:22rule five is order block fair value gap
4:14:25or inverted fair value gap entry model.
4:14:27So what I do is after we get this one
4:14:30minute shift like this I usually go to a
4:14:325minut time frame. On this 5minut time
4:14:34frame I'm looking for an order block a
4:14:37fair value gap or an inverted fair value
4:14:39gap that I can trade from. Ideally if I
4:14:42can get a multitude of them combined
4:14:44together that's going to be the area
4:14:45that I take. So if we look at price
4:14:47right here, what we will see is first
4:14:49and foremost we have a bullish fair
4:14:51value gap here that gets inverted,
4:14:53right? Traded through. So that becomes
4:14:55an inverted fair value gap. At the same
4:14:57time, we also have a fivem minute fair
4:14:59value gap here. We also have another
4:15:02fiveminute fair value gap here, right?
4:15:04And then we also have, you know, this M5
4:15:06order block, right? You could use this
4:15:08buy to sell. You could use this as your
4:15:11order block, this final buy to sell,
4:15:13right? So here you can see on the
4:15:145minute time frame we have an inverted
4:15:17fair value gap, an order block and a
4:15:19normal fair value gap. Sometimes you
4:15:21might just get one of them, sometimes
4:15:22you might get a couple of them.
4:15:23Sometimes you might get all of them. But
4:15:24I'm looking for the area of price where
4:15:26we get that confirmation. And then I'm
4:15:28just going to choose one of those areas
4:15:29and take my trade. And so for example,
4:15:30short position in here. My stop loss
4:15:32would go above the high. Then where
4:15:34would I look at targeting? I'm just
4:15:36trading in direction of the trend.
4:15:38Right? The 15 minute is bearish. I'm
4:15:40expecting the probability indicates that
4:15:42we will get lower prices. So if that's
4:15:44what probability indicates, then I'll
4:15:46just take my trade down to this low in
4:15:48here. And again, we can just use this
4:15:49inverted F value put our stops above the
4:15:52highs. And you can see here 1 to 5.57
4:15:56risk-reward. And then if you risk $1,000
4:15:58on this trade, you return $5,570.
4:16:01So that's why you can have a 33% win
4:16:03rate and take 10 trades. Let's say you
4:16:05just win three of those trades. But if
4:16:06my average is 6.27, 27. Let's just say
4:16:08six. If I take three trades at six, what
4:16:12do I return? 18. If I lose the other
4:16:15seven, then I lose seven. However, at
4:16:17the end of those 10 trades, I've won 18
4:16:20times my risk, and I've lost seven times
4:16:23my risk. So, if my risk is $1,000 per
4:16:26trade, I've lost seven trades, so I lost
4:16:27$7,000. I won three trades, but I made
4:16:30$18,000. The net profit is $11,000.
4:16:34That's how the riskreward and win rate
4:16:36game goes together. And so that would
4:16:37literally be the trade that's taken. Of
4:16:39course, I said, you know, at the end
4:16:41I'll show you the trade strategy. I've
4:16:42kind of already walked you through
4:16:43everything. And what I will say is this
4:16:45is just one model, right? So this
4:16:48playbook, the playbook that we kind of
4:16:49went through here, which you can kind of
4:16:51see. This playbook actually does have
4:16:53multiple variations of it. One of those
4:16:56variations is this right here, which is
4:16:58my London sweep Frankfurt reversal
4:17:00model. I also have six other models
4:17:03these same criteria. But again, those
4:17:06six of the models, those are kind of,
4:17:07you know, not really something to be
4:17:09honest with you, I'm willing to share on
4:17:10YouTube. But this one in of itself is
4:17:13more than good enough. You know, it's
4:17:15it's profitable enough. Go and test it
4:17:16for yourself. And that pretty much
4:17:17becomes it, right? That becomes our
4:17:19strategy. We have a 15-minute time frame
4:17:21that is bearish. So, we're looking for
4:17:23shorts. Is it between 2 and 5 a.m.?
4:17:25There's two. At the moment that we're
4:17:27going to take the trade, it's 3:30 a.m.
4:17:28Great. Step one. Step two. bearish in
4:17:31our time window. Third rule, do we have
4:17:32the liquidation? Yeah, we liquidate
4:17:34Frankfurt. We liquidate Asia. Great.
4:17:36Step four, lower time frame
4:17:38confirmation. Has the one minute time
4:17:39frame shifted to align itself with the
4:17:4150-minut time frame? Yes, it happens
4:17:43right here. Okay, great. There's five.
4:17:45There's four. Sorry. And then step five,
4:17:46do we have an order block, a fair value
4:17:48gap, or an inverted fair value gap on
4:17:49the 5minut time frame to take the trade?
4:17:51Yes, we do. Those are all the rules that
4:17:53come together for this one specific
4:17:55model. And that would mean you have the
4:17:57green light to execute on this trade.
4:18:00Now again, look, we'll kind of see how
4:18:02the trade plays out and managers, but
4:18:03this something super important is you
4:18:05can have a trading strategy. So many
4:18:07traders have trading strategies that
4:18:08work and they still don't make money
4:18:10because trading strategy is only 33% of
4:18:13the equation. There are two other things
4:18:15just as important, maybe even more
4:18:17important than trading strategy if you
4:18:19want to consistently make money. Let's
4:18:20see how this trade plays out. Right, you
4:18:22can see price tags us in. It's hovering
4:18:24around price for a little bit. This is
4:18:25where psychology becomes important. Many
4:18:27traders are deviating from their plan.
4:18:30At this point, you can see for me it's
4:18:32just a game of following my rules. I
4:18:34also have rules in place for when I move
4:18:36my stop loss to break even, etc., etc.
4:18:37But you can see there's the shift. Price
4:18:40tags in, we move, we pull back, we move,
4:18:42we pull back. Like even on the
4:18:43five-minute time frame, you can see the
4:18:44structure that we use.
4:18:48You can see the directional bias and
4:18:51that becomes our end