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The ULTIMATE Smart Money Concepts Guide (Full SMC Course)

Lewis Kelly · 49,622 words · 226 min read

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Why Learning The Language Of Price Changes Your Trading

0:00If you truly want to master trading and

0:03make life-changing amounts of money,

0:05there is one thing that you need to do,

0:07and that is understand why price moves

0:10the way it does. You see, price is a

0:13language. It's a completely new

0:14language. It's a foreign language, and

0:16the only way that you will be able to

0:17master it is if you can learn to read

0:19it. And so, that's exactly what I want

0:20to share with you. Look, I've been

0:21trading now for over six years. I've

0:24made over seven figures directly from

0:26trading. And that is all because I

0:28learned how to read the language that

0:30the market was telling me. So now every

0:31time I look at a chart, it literally

0:33speaks to me. I actually understand what

0:35is happening. And if you can truly

0:37understand what the market is telling

0:38you, then well, of course, your

0:40decision-m process is so much simpler.

0:43There's no more randomness. There's no

0:44[music] more inconsistency. There is

0:46just action upon the information that

0:47you're receiving. And that's what I want

0:48this to be for you. And so again, this

0:50is a 5 and a half hour master class

0:52breaking down every single [music]

0:53trading concept that you truly need to

0:56understand the language. Each part of

0:58this course is purposefully designed to

1:00teach you part of the language that the

1:02market is telling you. By the end of

1:03this course, you will literally have

1:05every concept that you could possibly

1:06need to actually understand price. I'm

1:09talking everything on market structure,

1:12liquidity, supply and demand, order

1:14blocks, fair value gaps, daily bias, and

1:16there are a couple more bonuses inside

1:19small details [music] and concepts that

1:21have truly helped me and transformed my

1:22trading. And on top of all of that, at

1:24the end of the video, I'm going to

1:25combine everything that you have learned

1:27into a detailed stepbystep trading

1:29strategy with a trading plan and live

1:32trading examples of this plan in action.

1:34And so, please, this is by far the most

1:37valuable video that has ever been

1:39produced on this YouTube channel. So,

1:40take it seriously. This is not for

1:42entertainment purposes. Get a notepad,

1:43[music] get a pen, take notes, and

Market Structure

1:46please enjoy.

1:50Market structure is by far the most

1:52powerful technical analysis concept that

1:55you can use if you want to become a

1:56profitable trader. And yet, it's so easy

1:59to get it wrong. And honestly, that's

2:01why most traders fail. You see, as a

2:03trader, the most important thing that

2:05you need to understand [music] is which

2:07direction is the market likely to trade.

2:09If you can get that right, you

2:11drastically [music]

2:12minimize the chances of you losing

2:14trades and drastically maximize the

2:16chances of you winning trades. So,

2:18diving straight in, there are three

2:20phases in which the market is always

2:22trading through. On the one hand, we

2:24have the bullish expansion. This is

2:26where price is progressively getting

2:29higher, making a series of highs, higher

2:32highs, lows, and higher lows. A higher

2:35high is simply when a high breaks an old

2:39high. That is your direct indication

2:41that price action is bullish. Price is

2:43more likely to trade higher in the

2:45future than it is to trade lower.

2:47Already you have a statistical edge. And

2:49again, the same thing is when these lows

2:51are getting higher than the previous

2:53lows, right? That is again signs of

2:55bullish price action. Now eventually

2:56what happens in every trend is it gets

2:59exhausted and the first sign of a

3:01reversal is usually a consolidation. A

3:04consolidation is where we have a high

3:07and a low that is in control of the

3:09price action. Right? That is your

3:11current market structure range. Now what

3:13price does is it usually spends a decent

3:16portion of time just kind of moving

3:18sideways below the high but above the

3:21low. So not really giving us any clear

3:23direction. Is price going to continue

3:25trading higher? Is price going to trade

3:26lower? That sideways consolidation is

3:29usually the first sign of the next leg

3:32up or in many cases a bearish

3:34correction. Then usually we have what

3:37follows is bearish expansion. And the

3:40bearish expansion can be categorized by

3:42understanding when the bullish structure

3:45has shifted. It is not which many people

3:47make the mistake of when these lows in

3:50here start trading lower. It is when

3:52this low right here that is responsible

3:55for breaking the previous high and

3:57putting in this high right here gets

3:59broken and traded through. That is what

4:01we call a change of character. The shift

4:04from bullish to bearish, right? Think of

4:07the bull is in control and then the bear

4:09becomes in control of the two

4:11characters. We change character, right?

4:13And then we begin with the bearish

4:15expansion. So we put in a lower low.

4:17This low right here is lower than the

4:20previous low indicating bearish price

4:22action. Then we have a lower high. This

4:24high is lower than the previous high.

4:26And then we get the continuation break

4:28of structure. Lower low, lower high and

4:31lower low. From here, what you're

4:32expecting then is very simple. And your

4:34only job as a trader is to understand

4:36that price is now bearish. Therefore,

4:39how can I look at shorting? Right? And

4:41those are the things that we'll get into

4:42later in the video. What you're

4:43essentially expecting is when price

4:45retraces back up to these highs, I want

4:47to find an opportunity to get involved

4:49in short positions and then I can take

4:51the market down here. And so that is in

4:55essence the three phases of price action

4:57that we will continuously see play out.

4:59Now if we come here to the actual live

5:01market, you'll see this unfold in real

5:04time. What you can see here on Euro

5:06Dollar 30-minut time frame is that we

5:07have bullish price action. So we have a

5:09swing low down here that price puts in a

5:11high up in here. This high puts in a low

5:15down here. Right? Notice that this low

5:17is higher than the previous low. Then we

5:19have a break of structure with a higher

5:22high. Right? So now we have highs

5:24getting higher, lows getting higher.

5:26Then you can see we have this pullback

5:29before a continuation. We continue

5:31trading in this bullish direction. Then

5:33we have a pullback again. What do you

5:35think is your job at this point in time?

5:37We have this low. We have this high. Our

5:39structural range is this high to this

5:41low. You're looking to long the market.

5:44And so when price starts coming its way

5:45back down here, the goal is to get

5:47involved in this bullish move and take

5:49out this old high. Once this happens,

5:51you have a new low, right? And then a

5:54new high. Now look what happens. We've

5:57had a very aggressively long bullish

6:00trend. And then eventually what happens

6:01is we put in a high right here, right?

6:05And we have our low down here.

6:07So that is our current structural range.

6:11Now what happens is price starts to move

6:13sideways, right? We don't really get a

6:15real break of a high, a real break of a

6:16low. In fact, what you see here is that

6:19we get this wick, right? And for me, a

6:21wick is not a break of structure. That

6:23is what we refer to as a liquidation.

6:24You see, every time that you have a low

6:27and every time you have a high, when

6:30price approaches this level and it wicks

6:32above that level, you can likely expect

6:35that price will then reject that area

6:37and trade in the opposite direction. And

6:39the reason for that is purely based off

6:42of the order flow. Price gets above this

6:44high and then the thing is is no one is

6:46willing to now buy more orders above

6:48this high. And so that's why we have the

6:50wick, right? And price closes back down

6:52here. And that essentially tells you

6:54with just that wick that price is not

6:56willing to trade higher. And because of

6:58that, you can already indicate weaker

7:00price action. So if I know that a wick

7:02is a sign of weakness as it expands out

7:04of a range, then why would I want to buy

7:07out of that range? It's going to likely

7:09go in the opposite direction. The same

7:10is true on the sell side, right? You can

7:12see we get the wick and then we have a

7:14reversal. Right? If we then look at the

7:15low down here, ultimately what happens?

7:18We fail to break through this low. We

7:21wick the low. That to me is a sign of

7:23weakness, right? It's a sign of

7:24reversal. And then you can see we end up

7:26reversing and we come back up here. So

7:28we can see here we're getting wicks of

7:30the high and wick of the low, which is

7:32really just indecisive price action.

7:34This is a consolidation phase. And the

7:36likelihood is in many cases when we get

7:37this type of consolidation is that a

7:39reversal is most likely coming because

7:42price is unable to keep trading higher.

7:44The reality is is if market structure is

7:46continuing to go bullish, there would be

7:47no problem trading through this high and

7:49continuing like we have done many times

7:52in the past. We trade above, we

7:53continue, we trade above, we continue

7:55here. We try to trade above and we get a

7:57rejection. That simply tells us that the

7:59likelihood is is that we're going to

8:00reverse. Again, if you look at this

8:02liquidity concept, you can see all the

8:04time when you have a higher low that

8:06gets liquidated. Right? Here we have a

8:07low. Look what happens. Price comes into

8:09that low, it wicks below that low and

8:12reverses. Price comes into the high, it

8:15wicks that high and then it reverses.

8:17Even down to the minute micro details,

8:20right? We have a high here. Price comes

8:22up to this high, wicks up that high and

8:25then reverses. So, always pay attention

8:27to when price is wicking a low or

8:29wicking a high and look at that as a

8:31sign of reversal. Only when we can close

8:34below this low down here can I then say

8:38great, now we have shifted. We are no

8:40longer bullish. We are bearish.

8:41expecting lower prices and we can see

8:44how that unfolds, right? We become

8:46bearish, price trades aggressively to

8:48the sell side until we find a low, we

8:51have a retracement, we find a high, we

8:53have a continuation, we find a low, we

8:56come back up, we find a high, and then

8:58we continue trading down here. Low,

9:00high,

9:02low, high, and then this brings us to

9:04right now's current day price action. I

9:06would expect that today is most likely

9:08going to trade lower. It already gives

9:09me my indication. That is the importance

9:12of market structure, right? It's going

9:14to tell you the directional bias. But

9:16here's the catch. Now, I've made that

9:18sound simple and look simple because in

9:20all honesty, it is. But there are a

9:21couple of things that are messing people

9:23up and this is one of them. It's this

9:25idea that there is a real market

9:28structure and it looks like this. And it

9:30confuses the crap out of people. What we

9:32have is a high, we have a low, which is

9:37what you've been taught. We have a

9:38higher high. Amazing. very easy to

9:40understand, right? It's what you've been

9:41taught. But then it starts getting

9:43complicated because you start having

9:44pullbacks that look like this. And now

9:47what a lot of people do is they look at

9:48this and they're like, "Okay, we have a

9:49low. We have, okay, this high is lower

9:51than the previous high. Okay, we have a

9:53lower low down here. A lower high. Okay,

9:56we're obviously bearish, so let's sell

9:58the market." And so what do they do?

9:59They start selling the market down here,

10:01not realizing that they're looking at

10:03the wrong structural points. The

10:05critical mistake that traders are making

10:07when it comes to market structure is

10:09they don't understand which structure,

10:11which highs, which lows to use. And

10:12that's what I'm going to break down to

10:13you now. You see, this is the low that

10:16breaks through the high. This is the

10:18high that begins the reversal. So,

10:19that's all you need to have. You have

10:21your swing low and you have your swing

10:23high. We've broke structure. So, we are

10:26bullish. Now, until price breaks below

10:28this low, we do not shift bearish. We

10:31only look for longs. The problem is is

10:33many traders are thinking that price is

10:35bearish because of these lows, but

10:36they're reading the wrong market

10:38structure. They are reading internal

10:40structure. You need to be focused on

10:42these swing points in here. You can only

10:45get the green flag to go long and

10:47continue when you get, okay, we're

10:49bearish internal. Great. Now we're

10:52bullish internal. Now it's the time to

10:55look for longs. And then you can see

10:56price breaks structure. So now we break

10:59structure here toward the buy side. Now

11:01here's the other kicker. This is now our

11:03swing low. This up here is our swing

11:06high. And so we're expecting longs.

11:08We're expecting that price will respect

11:10this low and it will target this high.

11:12Again, here's another fatal mistake that

11:14traders make is they look at this.

11:15They're like, "Okay, we have a low.

11:17Okay, we have a higher high. Great.

11:18Bullish. Okay, higher low, higher high.

11:21Okay, so here's my low. Here's my high.

11:24Oh, look, we break through this low.

11:26Okay, now I'm going to look for sells

11:27cuz we're bearish." Wrong. until we

11:30break this low. It is the low the lowest

11:33point that structure comes before

11:35breaking structure again. It's this low

11:38right here. Many traders are getting

11:39trapped on the wrong side of the market.

11:41That's why there's so many failing

11:42traders cuz they don't understand how to

11:44read market structure. You have to use

11:46this low and this high. So when this low

11:48gets taken out, that for me is like

11:50great. That's an inducement, right?

11:52Because so many traders are now going to

11:53be looking to go the other side. But for

11:55me, I'm still very much bullish. And so

11:58when I get this shift above here, that's

12:00my green light. And then I patiently

12:02wait for price to come back in. And then

12:03where do you think that price is likely

12:04to go to next? The next logical target

12:07is for price to run toward this high.

12:09That is real market structure. It looks

12:11confusing, but it's very simple. It's

12:13not really much difference what we just

12:15covered in here. We have these

12:16pullbacks. It's just that inside of

12:17these pullbacks, there are little

12:18pullbacks that get you confused. Let's

12:20go and take a look at what this looks

12:22like in the actual market. So imagine

12:24for a second that we have a low down

12:26here. We have a high here, a low here,

12:29higher high. So, we're bullish, right?

12:31Let's just say we're bullish. Now,

12:34here's the thing that throws people off.

12:36For me, it goes like this low here.

12:38Here's what people think. People use

12:40this high and then this low and then

12:42this high and then when price puts in

12:44this low down here, they're like, "Okay,

12:45great. We've shifted bearish. Let me

12:47look at shorting." It's like, no, it's

12:49not this here. It has to have at least

12:51three candles that pull back. So, it's

12:53high, low, higher, high, higher, low.

12:56Right? Again, same thing. People look at

12:58this, they're like, "Okay, oh, low. Oh,

13:00high. Oh, new low. Okay, bearish." It's

13:03like, no, this is the low.

13:06This is the high. If it's above this

13:09low, it's bullish. Don't use anything

13:11else. Everything else is internal. It's

13:13like all these traders are looking at

13:14these structural points, trying to use

13:16these and these, and it's like, no, none

13:19of that is structure. It's just noise

13:21for you to get distracted in. If it's

13:23above this low, it's bullish. Until it

13:25breaks above this high, this is a low in

13:27control. And then for me, it's higher

13:29high. But again, many people are looking

13:31at this like the, oh, new high. Oh, new

13:33low. Oh, new high. It's like, no. It's

13:35like when we break this high, this is

13:37the low. So now the structure is like

13:39this from this low to this high. And

13:43then we break structure. You can see

13:45that we're respecting our structural

13:46levels. Then what happens? Price comes

13:48back. We put in a low. We go again. We

13:50find a high and then we have high to low

13:52and price cannot break out of this

13:54level. We wick that doesn't count. We

13:56wick that doesn't count. When we break

13:59and close, that's good. So now we go to

14:01bearish. And so again, my structure

14:03becomes low, high, low, high,

14:10low, high, low, possible high. We don't

14:14know until it breaks it. What do many

14:15other traders look at? Many other

14:16traders are looking at it like this.

14:19Okay. Low, high, low, high, low, high.

14:24It's like you're just going to confuse

14:25yourself. That's exactly why you get

14:26stuck because you're using all of these

14:29rubbish terms for market structure. No,

14:31that none of that is market structure.

14:33This is market structure. It's the

14:35external swing points. Forget the

14:37internal. The most important part of

14:38trading is being on the right side of

14:40the market. And yet, you're getting

14:42caught on the wrong side of the market

14:43because you're not doing this. You're

14:45using all of these internal structural

14:47points. Just don't do it. Let me

Free Gift For You

14:48interrupt you just for one second. Just

14:51before we move on to the next idea, I

14:52want to share something with you that

14:54will make your trading a hundred times

14:56easier and simpler. And yes, I truly do

14:58mean that. Over the past few years,

15:00you've probably come to know me as

15:01someone who is very big on market

15:03structure. You're watching right now a

15:05market [music] structure breakdown. Now,

15:06one of the biggest issues that I have

15:08seen traders face time and time again,

15:10which they keep coming to me with, is

15:11this is great. Market structure is

15:13incredible, but how do I know how to

15:14accurately draw a high? How to

15:16accurately draw a low? How do I know

15:17what's an actual breaker structure

15:19versus what I think is a breaker

15:20structure? But really, it's [music] not.

15:22Basically, how do I actually have rules

15:24in place that make market structure

15:27completely accurate [music] and I've

15:29actually gone and created an entire

15:30solution for this and I just want to

15:32quickly show you just for a second. So,

15:33here we are. Euro dollar. This is

15:35ultimately what price [music] looks

15:36like. And you can see in the top left

15:37here we have an indicator. And if I just

15:39literally toggle this indicator, it will

15:41give me all of the highs and lows, the

15:44real highs and lows with the real

15:45changes of characters and breaks of

15:47structures [music]

15:48that completely tell me what the

15:50direction of price is, what the market

15:51structure actually, as you can see here,

15:53it gives a little symbol up in here to

15:55tell us what the structure is. And so

15:56you can see if you're looking at this

15:57price, for example, price looks to be

15:59bullish, right? Who in the right mind

16:01would know that this little area in here

16:03is a pullback. If you didn't, you'd

16:04probably trying to buy all of this price

16:06leg. But no, this indicator will show

16:07you we literally have a change of

16:10character and then a break of structure,

16:12a break of structure and we continue

16:13bearish all the way down here and we

16:15knew about it way ahead of time and then

16:17actually we've just recently shifted

16:19bullish and it has the external

16:21structure and all of the internal

16:22structure as well. And you can see we

16:24shift bullish and price [music] begins

16:26to trade higher and higher. And so we've

16:28literally created a completely

16:30rule-based indicator that you can use

16:32that will make your market structure and

16:34your trading hundred times easier. Feel

16:37free to check it out. I'll leave the

16:38link in the description. It'll give you

16:39everything you need to know about the

16:40indicator and how it actually works.

16:42Enjoy the rest of the video. The next

16:44super important point that I need to

16:46make is that you have to combine

16:48structure with supply and demand. Market

16:50structure alone won't work. Fibonaccies,

16:52it's not going to work. You need to use

16:54supply and demand. So what is supply and

16:56demand and how do you combine it with

16:57structure? So you can see here that we

16:59have a low, a high, we make a new low

17:04and then we make a new high. Now notice

17:06in here we have this area of price where

17:09price has a lot of volume before an

17:11aggressive move. Price comes back up, we

17:13have another aggressive move. We want to

17:15look at these areas of demand, right?

17:18What is demand? Demand is, you know, a

17:20group of people or one institution

17:22flocking to buy a lot of something at

17:24one price. Therefore, it moves higher.

17:26Simple supply and demand and economics.

17:28If there is more demand than there is

17:31supply for that thing, the price will

17:32increase. So, just look at where you

17:34have sharp aggressive price increases.

17:37There you will find demand. And so, what

17:39you want to be looking at is when you

17:40have these large impulsive legs, look at

17:43the volume that took place just before

17:45that impulsive move. There you will find

17:46your demand. The same can be true for

17:48supply. If you look at supply, you just

17:50want to find the areas of price that we

17:52were trading at before we have the

17:53aggressive move. And there you will find

17:55supply and you'll see interactions with

17:57that and then demand comes in. Right? So

17:59what you need to do is when you see

18:01market structure you need to then

18:04identify areas of supply and demand. And

18:05now I'll show you what that actually

18:07looks like. So if we come back into this

18:08same price action and we apply the same

18:10principles here's what we'll find.

18:12Remember we have our market structure as

18:14high low

18:17right to high to low to high low high

18:23low high. Now you need to apply supply

18:25and demand. So for example here we have

18:27a bullish move in here. Now where's the

18:31bulk of the volume before that happens?

18:33It's in here. So there's your demand.

18:35You want to wait for price to come back

18:36into the demand before you can long.

18:38Here we don't have price come back into

18:40the demand. Okay fine. Then we see price

18:42pull back and then aggressive run up.

18:44Where's the bulk of the volume happen

18:46before that happens? It's in here,

18:48right? This is the area where we have

18:50the transactions and then price

18:51aggressively moves. So there's your

18:53demand. So after you get the run of that

18:55high, you wait for price to come back to

18:57your demand. Here's a critical mistake

19:00that a lot of traders make as well is

19:01when they're trading market structure,

19:03they think, "Okay, cool. Let's say

19:04that's my high. Then I should just buy

19:06when price breaks above it." So they buy

19:08here and maybe they put their stop loss

19:10below here. The problem with this is

19:12like number one, your risk-to-reward is

19:14low and number two is like where do you

19:16target? You don't have an area of price

19:18where you now expect that price should

19:20trade towards. You don't. You're just

19:22guessing. And so maybe you're going for

19:24let's say a 1 to three riskreward and

19:26price comes back up here and now all of

19:28a sudden you move your stop loss to

19:29break even and price comes out at break

19:30even and then it goes in your direction,

19:32right? Or maybe you go for a oneto one

19:34and great you make it. But how many of

19:35those trades are you going to make? So

19:36the problem with those traders is they

19:38they're buying too early. You don't want

19:39to be the first one to the party. It's

19:40like a game of poker. With trading, you

19:43have the ability to wait for the market

19:45to show you its hand, then you can bet

19:48chips. That is the game of trading. You

19:50see, trading is very similar in nature

19:53to gambling. But there are gamblers out

19:55there, professional poker players, who

19:57make millions and millions of dollars

19:59because they understand probabilities

20:01and they understand psychology. Well,

20:02the market is not too different. It's

20:04probabilities and psychology. The bonus

20:06with trading is you can wait for the

20:09market to show you its hand, right?

20:11Sometimes it may bluff you, but a lot of

20:13the times it will show you what it's

20:14going to do before it does it. And then

20:16you can decide whether or not you're

20:17going to take that bet. I mean, imagine

20:19for a second you were playing a game of

20:20poker, me and you, right now, and let's

20:22say I bet $1,000. And before you decide

20:25whether you want to match that bet, you

20:27get to see what cards I have and what is

20:29on the table. And then you can decide,

20:31well, either I have a better hand than

20:33him or he has a better hand than me. If

20:34you have a better hand, you can bet your

20:36money. If you don't have a better hand,

20:37like no, fold. The market gives you the

20:39chance to do that. So that's what supply

20:41and demand and market structure

20:42combination is all about. It's you wait

20:44for the move and then you wait for price

20:46to come back into this area. So then

20:49then you can catch the long move in

20:51here. You don't have to enter the market

20:53early. And sometimes that may mean that

20:55you miss out on opportunities because

20:57price goes and it doesn't come back.

20:58That's fine. That's part of the game of

21:01trading. It's about an edge. So same

21:03thing happens again right now we have

21:05multiple areas where price increases.

21:08You have we have aggressive move in

21:09here. We have consolidation aggressive

21:11move consolidation aggressive move. So

21:12we have

21:14phase one of demand really and truly is

21:17this entire level in here right from the

21:19sell down here to the buy. What happens?

21:21We have aggressive move out. We come

21:23back into the demand and then we trade

21:25away. Then we have a new demand and that

21:27new demand is pretty much this range

21:29here. Right? This is the next level

21:31where we get consolidation and then

21:32large moves to the upside. That's

21:34demand. Price goes up, we consolidate,

21:36and then we go aggressively again to the

21:40upside. That's demand. Now, notice that

21:42price doesn't come back and tag us in

21:44here before it goes. That's fine. You're

21:45not going to get that every single time.

21:47Then what we have is the next phase. We

21:49have aggressive demand. So, what we have

21:51here is we have consolidation, a small

21:53aggressive move, which is demand in

21:55here, and then price comes into that

21:56demand, and then we have aggressive move

21:57again. Now the demand is where? From

22:00this area here to here. You could also

22:02in this instance use this entire leg of

22:05price, right? This is the consolidation

22:08and then you have the aggressive demand.

22:09And so it's like okay, you just wait for

22:11price to get back into that area where

22:13price moved from because this is the

22:16area where the buyer sets into the

22:19market and the market became imbalance.

22:21Market seeks equilibrium, right? Comes

22:23back into balance and then we get the

22:25next leg up. probabilities of market

22:27structure and that is essentially how

22:29you combine supply and demand. So it's

22:31very simple. The final principle that I

22:33want to share to you before we put this

22:34all together is confirmations. You see

22:37it's one thing having market structure.

22:38It's important. It's great. Alone it's

22:40not going to help you. Then you add

22:41supply and demand and now it becomes

22:43even more powerful but alone it doesn't

22:46help you. Imagine you have market

22:47structure with supply and demand plus

22:50confirmations. Now you have a cheat

22:52code. So what is confirmations and how

22:54does it look? Well, same thing applies,

22:56right? We have a low here, a high. We

22:59have a new low and a new higher high.

23:02So, the market is bullish. We have a

23:03breaker structure above the high is in

23:05here. Breakup structure. Great. We are

23:07bullish. We are looking for longs.

23:09Second thing that we do is we find our

23:11area of demand. So, here we have a very

23:13aggressive and bullish move up. But just

23:15before that happens, we have an area of

23:17consolidation where we may see

23:19institutions or certain individuals

23:20loading up on their positions where the

23:22demand really kicks in. Right? So this

23:24is our area of demand. Now here's the

23:26catch, right? Let's say that this in

23:28dark here is the 15minut time frame. And

23:32let's say in the dotted line here is the

23:341 minute time frame. What's going to

23:36happen is when you have price action

23:39like this on the 15 minute, when the 1

23:41minute comes back here, it's going to be

23:43bearish and it's going to look like

23:44this. Right? So on the 1 minute time

23:47frame, as price approaches your area of

23:50demand, you simply apply patience. When

23:52we get in here, you can see that we're

23:53bearish, right? Lower low, lower high,

23:55lower low, lower high, lower low,

23:58consolidation, lower high, lower low.

24:00Inside of our demand, you simply wait

24:03for this confirmation. When this high

24:06gets broken in here, now you have

24:10literally a cheat code because this is

24:12really what my model is, right? This is

24:14honestly one of my most powerful trading

24:16models. Now, you have confirmation on

24:17top of everything. So, we already know

24:20that probability indicates that we are

24:22going to trade into this high. We

24:23already know we're bullish. We already

24:25know that we're trading from an area of

24:26demand. Now, we've confirmed that we're

24:29going to trade higher because price is

24:30trading higher. We've confirmed that

24:32this demand area is valid because we're

24:34seeing demand come back in from that

24:36same level. Now, all you have to do is

24:37trade. And so, again, a big thing that

24:39traders do wrong is they try to trade

24:41like this 15-minut time frame, bullish,

24:44find a demand area and trade like that,

24:46right? one to two risk-reward or maybe

24:48sometimes what you'll find is that you

24:50have multiple areas of demand in the

24:52same price leg. Now what do you do when

24:54you wait for the lower time frame you

24:55have something different because now

24:57what I can do is I can use the same

24:59structure and I can use this same let's

25:01say area of demand on the 1 minute time

25:03frame or the 5m minute time frame and I

25:06can take this trade the same trade idea

25:09but different entry after confirmation.

25:12So now I have by adding this

25:13confirmation principle which so few

25:15people do I am increasing my

25:17risk-to-reward from 1 to two to 1 to 5

25:21and I'm further confirming the

25:24likelihood that I win this trade. So

25:25I've increased the likelihood that I'll

25:27win and I've increased how much I'm

25:28going to win just by adding this one

25:30principle and that is essentially it.

25:31And then you patiently wait for price to

25:33come back in and then take you away to

25:35your direction which is already mostly

25:37confirmed.

Liquidity

25:41You're struggling to understand

25:43liquidity because you want to become a

25:45consistently profitable trader and you

25:48know that liquidity could be the missing

25:51key between you and profitability. But

25:53up until now, you're lost and confused

25:55because everywhere online, everybody

25:58seems to make liquidity such a

26:00complicated idea. Well, stick with me

26:02because in this video, I'm going to

26:04simplify liquidity to a point where it's

26:06very easy to understand. In this video,

26:08we'll cover what is liquidity and why it

26:12works. Then, we're going to cover the

26:14most common types of liquidity and how

26:16to identify them. Then I'll walk you

26:18through the biggest mistake that I see

26:20traders make when it comes to liquidity

26:22and how you can avoid making that same

26:24mistake. Okay, concept number one and

26:27again very very simple concept is what

26:30is liquidity in trading? Right, you

26:31first and foremost have to understand

26:33what exactly it is that you mean by

26:36liquidity. So what do we mean by

26:38liquidity in trading? Simply put,

26:40liquidity just refers to money. When you

26:42want to identify areas of liquidity, you

26:45need to ask yourself where is the money?

26:47And money in the markets can only come

26:50in the form of three different ways. It

26:52can only come in the form of entries,

26:56stop- losses, or take profits. Every

26:58time you get an entry, you deploy

27:01liquidity into the market. Every time

27:03you hit your stop-loss, you deploy

27:05liquidity into the market. Every time

27:07you hit a takerit, you deploy liquidity

27:10into the market. and so does everybody

27:12else. So when asking yourself how to

27:15identify key areas of liquidity, what

27:18you really need to ask yourself is where

27:20is everybody's orders, where is

27:22everybody's take profits, and where is

27:24everybody's stop losses? And that is

27:26exactly what I'm going to show you. So

27:29this is a very simple diagram of

27:32understanding the most common liquidity

27:34concept, which is dumb money. Right?

27:37What you want to be thinking about is

27:39where is everybody's stop losses? Where

27:41is dumb money stop losses, right? Where

27:44are their orders? Where are their stop-

27:46losses? And if any of them are in

27:48profitable positions, where are people

27:50looking to take profits, right?

27:51Liquidity is actually a very

27:53psychological thing. You have to

27:55understand that groups of traders form

27:58collective biases based on trading

28:01ideas, ideologies, and strategies. So

28:04many different traders trade many

28:06different strategies collectively. So

28:08you can identify these strategies and

28:10begin understanding where all the

28:12liquidity is. If we know that liquidity

28:14equals money, stop losses, entries, take

28:16profits, we need to identify where are

28:18people putting their orders, where are

28:20people putting their stop losses, and

28:22where are people putting their take

28:23profits. And so here are some very

28:25simple ideas of how you would identify

28:27some liquidity. Then we'll go and take a

28:29look at what this looks like in the

28:30markets. So you can see here we say you

28:33know we have a um price leg push up pull

28:36back push up pull back right so you can

28:38quite clearly see that you know from our

28:40landscape smart money we're bullish

28:41right we can see we have bullish market

28:43structure but what we have is we have

28:47this trend line forming down here. So

28:51there are a lot of traders that are

28:52looking at this and they're seeing this

28:54trend line and again these are the trend

28:56line traders and many of these traders

28:59when they're looking at this market they

29:01have an ideology of wanting to go long.

29:04Their trading strategy indicate

29:06indicates to them that price is going to

29:08continue trading higher. So what do they

29:11do? Well, they're going to wait for one

29:13more touch of this trend line. They're

29:15going to try and you know probably enter

29:17into try to get the next touch. So we

29:19have one, we have two, we have push up.

29:21So maybe they have their entry somewhere

29:24in this region in here. Maybe they're

29:26looking at, you know, this old low down

29:29here as an area in which they could

29:30potentially look at putting their stop

29:32loss. And where do you think they're

29:33probably going to target? Well,

29:35psychology indicates that many traders

29:38use old highs, old lows for their

29:41take-profit placement and their

29:42stop-loss placement. Think about it.

29:44Think about you as yourself. Where do

29:46you place your stop losses? You place

29:49your stop losses at some sort of low

29:52which you think should be respected. You

29:54place your takeprofit at some sort of

29:56high you think should be disrespected.

29:58Well, all traders pretty much think very

30:01similarly. So, this is what the typical

30:04kind of trend line trader who would be

30:05looking at this would be looking at.

30:07Then you have the opposite side of the

30:09spectrum. you have a certain caliber of

30:11trader who are who's looking at this

30:13market and says, "Okay, well, we've been

30:15we've been trading high for a long

30:17amount of time now and we begin to

30:20reject this random key level, right?

30:22This random key level that they created

30:24from the past that has no relevance of

30:26current price action, but let's just say

30:28it means something." They they have

30:30these key areas mapped out. I see. Okay,

30:32price has rejected from this key area.

30:35And then price has pulled back into this

30:37same area and rejected it again. So that

30:40must mean that this is a key level. This

30:42is an area of resistance. This is a

30:44double top. This is an area that is

30:46protected. So I want to get involved. So

30:49they tried to get involved in some sort

30:51of short position, right? So they may

30:53put their, you know, their entries up at

30:55this level. when price comes back,

30:57they're probably going to put their stop

30:58losses at the highs up in this level.

31:01And then they're probably going to put

31:02their take profits, you know, anywhere

31:03kind of some old lows, um, wherever they

31:05may put their take profits. But then

31:07you're going to look have something that

31:08looks a little bit like this, right?

31:10You're going to have some traders who

31:11are looking to long because of this

31:13trend line. You've got some traders who

31:14are looking to short because of these,

31:16you know, relatively equal highs or this

31:18double top or this area of resistance,

31:20right? And then what else do you have?

31:22Well, maybe the market then gives you

31:24something like this. have a little bit

31:25of a reaction, right? And then what

31:28happens? What happens is a new caliber

31:31of trader also enters the market. A new

31:33area, a new trader enters the market and

31:35goes, "Oh, look, you know, we are we

31:38have this trend line. We're we're

31:39bullish. We have structure. They have an

31:41understanding of structure. We have some

31:43great structure. Amazing." Um, and now

31:45price has traded out of here. We've come

31:47back in. Now we're having a little bit

31:48of a reaction. So, what am I going to

31:50do? I'm going to long this reaction,

31:52right? So, then they're trying to get

31:53involved. And so we can literally just

31:55paste this again. Now we have another

31:57caliber of trader trying to get

31:58involved. Put in their stop loss where

32:00probably at this low entry somewhere

32:02around the same level take profit

32:05somewhere at this high. Right? That's

32:07another type of trader. Then again you

32:10may have more of the same trader. Let's

32:12say trend line traders, right? So you've

32:14got one touch, two touch, three touches.

32:17They're looking at getting involved and

32:18they're waiting for what? they're

32:21waiting for some sort of reaction from

32:23this trend line point and so when they

32:25begin getting this little reaction again

32:27that is when they may jump in the market

32:29and where they're going to put their

32:31stop losses in these similar areas right

32:33so what I'm kind of building the

32:35narrative for you is understanding that

32:38something as simple as two legs on a

32:41price leg can have so many different

32:43traders getting involved in the market

32:45for so many different reasons and it's

32:46your job to identify who those traders

32:49are what strategies they likely trade,

32:52where their entries likely are, and

32:54where their stop losses likely are. And

32:56it sounds difficult, but it's actually

32:59very simple. All I've gone through is a

33:00trend line trader, a resistance type

33:03trader, a double top, a double bottom, a

33:06trend line confirmation, right? Very,

33:07very simple level trading strategies

33:10that a lot of traders try to trade. And

33:13these types of things, these patterns

33:16that you see, they're set up

33:19intentionally. They're set up on purpose

33:22because smart money knows that the

33:24information that you're getting online,

33:26the information that your broker's

33:27feeding you, it's all retailbased

33:30concepts or dumb money based concepts.

33:32It's all pattern recognition. It's all

33:34there's no causation to the price

33:36movements. Everything is, you know,

33:38trying to identify something based on

33:40something that doesn't exist. And so it

33:43sees all of this liquidity that's

33:45building all these different trade type

33:46of traders that are trading these

33:48outdated styles of trading with all

33:50their stop- losses and their entries.

33:52And Smart Money knows this, right? And

33:54so we have all these different pockets

33:55of liquidity in just one random

33:58scenario. And so now what you have is

34:00you have, you know, a bunch of stop-

34:01losses in here. You have a bunch of

34:03takerit levels in here, right? You have

34:06a uh, you know, probably a bunch of

34:08take-profit levels in here from sellers.

34:10Then what else are you going to have?

34:12Well, any market movement that we get

34:14from here on out, now you've got the

34:16traders that are kind of waiting, right?

34:17The breakout traders or the break and

34:19retest traders. And what they'll be

34:21waiting for is some sort of direction.

34:23For example, if price continued trading

34:25higher and broke out of this high, so

34:28many traders would jump involved and

34:30start longing the market up in these

34:32regions. When it breaks out, they long.

34:34They may put their stop loss below this

34:35low. They may put their stop loss, you

34:38know, inside of some internal low inside

34:40of here, but basically they are going to

34:42be longing and they are going to be

34:43putting stop losses in these areas as

34:45well when it breaks. Right? Again, you

34:47have the same thing on the opposite

34:49side. When the market, let's say, has

34:51some sort of continuation and then it

34:54rejects from here and it takes out these

34:56lows. What you're going to be getting is

34:58you're going to be getting all the

35:00breakout traders that are trading this

35:02breakout and they're getting involved in

35:04the market here. their stop loss goes

35:06above these highs in here, right? Um

35:08their takerit goes, you know, down here.

35:11And then again, you have the the break

35:13and retest traders, right? Those are the

35:14ones that wait for the price to break,

35:16but then they wait for it to come back,

35:18right? And then they go to short. And

35:20it's the same thing. They have their

35:22entries in here, their stop losses up

35:24here, their take-profit levels down

35:26here. So you can see just in this one

35:28little schematic how many different

35:30traders would read the same piece of

35:33data and all come to different

35:35conclusions but primarily what we're

35:38seeing is they're all putting their

35:40money on their bias right they're

35:42putting their money in these levels now

35:45what I want to do is run you through the

35:48simple framework in which I use and is

35:51which you know what smart money concepts

35:53is about and how we would interpret this

35:56exact act same price action so much more

35:59simple just by understanding liquidity

36:03and understanding all the other types of

36:05traders and where their stop losses are

36:08and it goes something like this right

36:10first and foremost you have to

36:11understand you know why is that

36:14liquidity why before a very big move and

36:17this is something you've probably seen

36:19right you may have you may have been

36:21long before you had a bias to go long

36:24and you had your stop loss in here and

36:26then price just come into your stop loss

36:28before going in the direction that you

36:30wanted it to go. And you're probably sat

36:32asking why does that always happen to

36:34me? This is the reason. The reason is is

36:38because before smart money move the

36:40price aggressively in a certain

36:43direction, right? Which is their bias.

36:45That's their intention. It's their

36:47footprint. Before they do that, they

36:50will engineer liquidity on both sides of

36:53the market for this purpose. You see,

36:56smart money are very very big players.

36:59When they move, they move a large amount

37:01of money and the market is very simple

37:04marketplace. It is pretty much for every

37:07buy order, there needs to be an equal

37:10sell order on the other side. And so

37:12because smart money have so much money,

37:14let's say they wanted to, you know, buy

37:16Euro US dollar long-term, well, they

37:20would need to get their orders filled at

37:22the price they want to get their orders

37:24filled at. So let's say they want to get

37:25their orders filled at this level here

37:28and they want to buy here. They need an

37:30equal amount of sellers to be present at

37:33that level so that they can get their

37:36orders filled. So what they do is they

37:38create artificial dealing ranges, right?

37:42They'll push price in a certain

37:43direction to trick people into having an

37:47opinion, having a bias. Because when

37:49they have that bias, like we've just

37:51looked at all these different traders

37:52that are looking at this market, and

37:54lots of them have stop- losses here,

37:56entries here, take profits here. When

37:58they've been able to manipulate their

38:00thinking to put in their liquidity into

38:02the market, then they're able to use

38:05that liquidity to get a better average

38:08of their orders filled at the prices

38:11they want to get their orders filled at.

38:13Because if they wanted to buy and they

38:15first sold, they created these patterns.

38:19They created these little equal lows

38:21here. They had the little push up to

38:24make everybody, you know, ready to want

38:26to buy in here. And so they have their

38:28stop losses down here. And then anyone

38:30who sees it break now wants to sell,

38:32they do that so that then when when they

38:35move price into here into where they

38:37really want to buy from, right? Then all

38:40of these sell orders from the stop-

38:43losses of the buy orders from the

38:45sellers who are getting involved because

38:46they think prices go lower. They absorb

38:49all of that liquidity with their buy

38:52orders. Right? That is the game. So that

38:55is why they manipulate price. It's not

38:56just this kind of like conspiracy theory

38:58as why it works. No, there is literally

39:01the reasoning and justification behind

39:03why price does it. So how would we view

39:05the same market through the lens of

39:07smart money? Well, number one,

39:10directional bias. That's always number

39:12one. We need to understand what is the

39:14direction of the market. Because one

39:17thing that smart money can't hide is

39:18they can't hide their intention. They

39:20can't hide their footprints. Because the

39:23reality is is when they move the market,

39:25the market moves. You can't hide that.

39:28So if price is trending in a certain

39:30direction like you can see here, right?

39:31We have a swing low, swing high, higher

39:34low, higher high. When price is put in

39:36this structure, it's undeniable that the

39:40market is bullish and that it's going to

39:42have higher prices because that is their

39:44intention. It's undeniable. They've

39:46already shown us. They can't hide it.

39:49Right? So our directional bias is our

39:51first and foremost bias that we need to

39:53have. So in this scenario, you can see

39:54that we're bullish. So our directional

39:56bias is bullish. We are looking for long

39:58positions. But then when you see price

40:01begin to build these little internal

40:04ranges, what we see is we see trend line

40:07liquidity across these lows, right? So

40:11we can put liquidity across here. We see

40:13we have all this liquidity down here.

40:15Trend line liquidity. We have equal

40:17highs across the highs up in here. We

40:21have, you know, relatively equal lows in

40:24these areas in here, right? Liquidity.

40:27And then we have probably some sort of

40:29reaction in price that pushes more

40:32buyers into the market, stop losses

40:33under here. We identify all of this in

40:36the same lens that I've just shown you

40:38when we mapped out all of the dumb

40:41money. And then we identify okay where

40:44is the area in price where we can avoid

40:46all of that liquidity that includes

40:49taking out all of that liquidity and is

40:52below that area of price. We would

40:54identify an area of interest, right? An

40:56order block, an area of interest

40:59below areas of key liquidity and then we

41:03wait for everybody else to get stopped

41:05out or most people to get stopped out.

41:07And then when price gets into our area,

41:09we wait for some confirmation. And then

41:11we go long right into here. And then we

41:15wait for these guys to get manipulated.

41:17We wait for these guys with the stop

41:19losses here to get manipulated. And then

41:21we get in with the real move of smart

41:24money and we just target the next

41:27logical area of price. And that is

41:29literally what my smart money model

41:32looks like. And that's something that

41:33we'll get into in just a moment. So to

41:36recap, liquidity is money and money is

41:39stop- losses, orders, and take profits.

41:41You want to see where the liquidity is,

41:43get in the minds of dumb money. Where

41:45are they putting their orders? What

41:47trading strategies are they using? And

41:49once you can see that in the charts, the

41:51trend lines, the equal highs, the

41:52support, the resistance, right? Once you

41:55can see those patterns, then you can

41:57begin to ask yourself, where would those

41:59guys put their entries, their stop-

42:00losses, and the takeprofits? And those

42:02are the pockets of price you need to

42:04mark out as your liquidity because that

42:06is where there is resting money sitting

42:09and smart money like a shark is coming

42:12for those pools of liquidity. So why

42:15everyone gets liquidity wrong and what

42:17you need to do to make sure that you

42:19don't fall into this trap. The key is is

42:22they have no context. Right? So if we

42:26look at this diagram that we have right

42:27here, what we can see is we can see that

42:30you know we have equal lows down here,

42:33right? So this is an area of you know

42:35old level of support or equal lows. So

42:38we know that's liquidity. What do we

42:40have? We have trend line liquidity

42:42building,

42:44right? We have a lot of trend line

42:45liquidity building. So again, we know

42:47there is a lot of liquidity. And even if

42:49you zoom out, you can see on the bottom

42:51side of things, you can see actually

42:53this is one big trend line as well. So

42:55we have one big trend line. We have

42:57micro trend lines within it. We have

42:59equal lows. We have again this large

43:01trend line down here. And what else do

43:03we have? We have equal lows across here.

43:07Right? So more liquidity and we have

43:09equal highs across here. So more

43:12liquidity. So these are our pockets of

43:14liquidity is what I like to call them.

43:16These are the areas in which there is

43:17liquidity. But the issue that a lot of

43:20traders make and maybe you're making

43:21this yourself is you think that because

43:23you have these areas of liquidity mapped

43:26out that now you think you know where

43:28the market is going but you lack

43:30context. You think that just because

43:32there is liquidity in a certain area

43:34that that means price has to go there or

43:36price will go there and price will go

43:37there now and that's where many traders

43:40are wrong because what they'll try to do

43:42is they will try to trade solely based

43:45on understanding liquidity. They'll say,

43:46"Okay, I see that there are stop losses

43:48in here. Therefore, the market is going

43:49to trade there." When the reality is is

43:52you need context. Everything needs to be

43:55seen through the lens of context.

43:57Because here's how I would see it. If I

43:59look at this market right now, I would

44:01tell you step number one, always, always

44:04form your directional bias first like

44:07I've just explained to you. So, it would

44:09be step one, identify our key areas of

44:12structure where we trended, right? So,

44:14we have swing low, swing high, swing

44:17low, higher high, higher low, higher

44:19high, higher low, higher high. Great.

44:22We're bullish. Now, where is my most

44:25recent swing range? Right, I need to

44:27find the swing low to the swing high.

44:29So, where's my most recent? Well, my

44:31most recent swing low is here. And my

44:34most recent swing high is here. So, now

44:37I have my trading range. And this is the

44:39current present moment trading range

44:41that we're operating in. So, if we're

44:44bullish and my swing low is here, my

44:46swing high is here. As of right now,

44:49right, right this moment, none of this

44:52sellside liquidity is important, right?

44:55Ignore this because it's not in context.

44:58There's no reason for the price to go

45:00lower until it's shifted its structure.

45:03So, focus on market structure as your

45:06primary foundation. Market structure is

45:08like the building blocks of your trading

45:10strategy. Again, if you want more value

45:12from market structure, I have so many

45:14videos on the channel about it. But

45:16market structure is really your building

45:18blocks and you know with it we can see

45:20we have a swing low, we have a swing

45:22high. So that is our trading range.

45:24Inside of that box is our trading range.

45:26So I am now only interested in number

45:29one longing this market because market

45:32structure is bullish. Number two, which

45:35simply means now I have context. I'm

45:37only interested in the liquidity areas

45:41in inside of my price leg. So if my

45:44swing low is swing low to swing high,

45:48I'm not interested in any liquidity that

45:49is outside of that context. Right? So

45:52what am I interested in? I'm interested

45:53in these lows and I'm interested in

45:56these highs. And again, like I said,

45:58many traders will make the mistake.

45:59They'll think that because all of this

46:01liquidity is down here and here and this

46:03long trend line that they can short

46:05because price is going to go there. And

46:07you know what? Price probably will go

46:09there. But it's not about understanding

46:11where price will eventually go. It's

46:13about understanding and becoming

46:15profitable is about knowing where price

46:18is going to go now. Where is its next

46:21move? That is how you make money. You

46:23don't make money by knowing when it's

46:24going to go in some random future point

46:26in time because there's a random trend

46:28line there. because maybe it will go

46:30there but by the time it's gone there

46:32you've probably lost so much money that

46:33it doesn't even matter. So everything

46:36must to be understood through context

46:39and context is market structure. We have

46:42to understand that we are bullish. So

46:44until we have a change of character

46:46until price shifts bearish we don't care

46:48about the sellside liquidity that's at

46:49the bottom of the price leg. We'll cross

46:51that bridge if and when we come to it.

46:53Right now we want to focus on what is in

46:56our control. And in our control right

46:58now is understanding that price is

46:59probably going to trade higher short

47:01term. And we need to get involved in

47:03those long positions to make money

47:05today. So how do we do that? We identify

47:08the areas of liquidity. So we have equal

47:10highs. So we know there is a lot of

47:12stop- losses above here. We have equal

47:15lows. So there's a lot of stop losses

47:17below here. So what I would be doing and

47:19I would be framing is okay, I want to

47:20long the market. Awesome. I want to

47:24probably be buying in an area of

47:28discount. Okay, so down in these regions

47:30in here, I want to identify a point of

47:32interest, right? An order block, an area

47:34of interest. Again, many videos on order

47:36blocks and areas of interest. I want to

47:38identify key area liquidity, which is

47:41these lows, these highs. I want to

47:42identify my order block inside of my

47:45discount level. And then I want to

47:47patiently wait for price to sweep that

47:49liquidity into my point of interest.

47:52Then I want to get my entry model,

47:54right, which is my lower time frame

47:56confirmation. And then I want to buy

47:59using that. And again, what is it? It's

48:01the exact same model that we just looked

48:03at, right? We're waiting for the

48:06liquidity to be taken and then we're

48:08waiting for the liquidity to be

48:09targeted.

48:11So that is why everyone gets liquidity

48:13wrong because they lack context. And

48:15hopefully that gives you an

48:16understanding of how to incorporate

48:19context into your trading.

The Reason Liquidity Sweeps Keep Failing You

48:24Liquidity sweeps are the most powerful

48:26way to trade the market. [music] And yet

48:2899% of traders who try fail. The reason

48:32is because there are hundreds of [music]

48:34different liquidity sweeps that happen

48:36every day, but most of them don't work.

48:38It's only when you truly understand

48:40which one does that they become

48:41unstoppable. It took me years to figure

48:44out which ones work and why. And today

48:46I'm going to share that exact blueprint

48:49with you. Now, you hear people talk

48:51about liquidity and they make it out to

48:53be such a complicated process when in

48:55actuality it is super simple. Liquidity

48:58simply refers to money. When you're

49:01looking for liquidity, what you're

49:02looking for is money. And here's the

49:04truth. Liquidity is absolutely

49:06everywhere in the market. The thing is,

49:08it's just in some areas more than

49:10others. So, when we're looking at

49:12liquidity, we want to be looking at

49:13areas of large liquidity. Now, how does

49:16liquidity enter the market? Liquidity

49:18enters the market in one of three ways.

49:21The first way that liquidity enters the

49:23market is opening a position. So,

49:25anytime that you have a buy order open

49:28or a sell order open, whether it's a

49:30market execute, a buy stop or sell stop

49:32or a buy limit or sell limit, when that

49:35gets triggered into the market like

49:37this, at that moment in time, that is

49:40your injection of liquidity into the

49:42market. And so let's say you're buying

49:44for example or you're buying into the

49:46market which means you're putting your

49:47liquidity into the market. There is a

49:49counterparty on the other side of the

49:51market who's telling the opposite side

49:53of the trade. So if you're buying you

49:55know 10 lots on Euro dollar. There has

49:58to be someone on the other side of the

50:00market selling you those 10 lots. That

50:02is usually a market maker. That is their

50:05job. A market maker is there to provide

50:07liquidity to whoever needs it to make

50:09sure the order book is stacked so that

50:12anybody can get access to the market and

50:14they make their money off the difference

50:16between the bid and ask that is a market

50:18maker. So when you enter into a buy

50:20position that is you entering buyside

50:22liquidity into the market. The second

50:25area of liquidity that comes into the

50:27market is when you hit let's say a

50:29takerit. So when you hit a takerit,

50:32which is the area that you have agreed

50:33upon to close out of your trade in a

50:36profit, when you hit that takerit, that

50:38acts as sell liquidity. So you're buying

50:42your 10 lots worth of Euro dollar at

50:45this price, and you're selling back

50:48those same 10 lots to the market at a

50:50new price. And so at this point in time,

50:5310 lots of sellside liquidity come into

50:56the market. The third area that

50:59liquidity enters the market is when

51:01price hits your stop-loss. So, let's say

51:03you get triggered into a buy position.

51:05And for many of you, you may be

51:07experiencing more stop- losses than not.

51:09Every time that you hit a stop-loss like

51:11this, when price tags you out of that

51:14position, you are indeed selling your 10

51:17lots back to the market at a loss. So,

51:20you brought 10 lots here and you're

51:21selling the 10 lots back to someone else

51:23in the market at this price. and you net

51:27the negative difference. The same is

51:29true for a takeprofit. When you hit it,

51:31you're selling those same 10 lots at

51:34this area for a net positive dollar

51:37return. So that is the three different

51:39ways that liquidity enters the market.

51:40So that's liquidity. Liquidity is money

51:43and that money comes in either through

51:45entries, stop- losses or take profits.

51:48Now you have to ask yourself where is

51:51the most available liquidity. That is

51:54when you have to try to understand the

51:56other market participants because

51:58liquidity as we've said is orders and

52:00orders are placed by someone and there

52:03are commonalities in market participants

52:07behavior and so here are the most common

52:09areas of liquidity. So the most common

52:12is highs and lows. At any time you see

52:14an area of price like this where price

52:17is moving in this direction. Let's say

52:19price has a little bit of a pullback

52:22like this. The most common areas of

52:24liquidity at this moment in time are

52:27below this low and above this high. That

52:30is where the most liquidity is resting

52:33in the market. The reason behind that is

52:35because most market participants like to

52:39put their stop losses or their orders at

52:42highs and lows. Just the psychological

52:44element of safety. So buyers that are

52:47stepping into the market and expecting

52:49price to go higher when they enter the

52:51market the likelihood is is they ask

52:53themselves where should I place my stop

52:54loss and they are going to be looking to

52:56place their stop loss in a logical place

52:59which is usually below a low. Now

53:02sellers who are entering the market in

53:04here and they're entering sell positions

53:06in here they have the same question.

53:08Where should I be putting my stop loss?

53:11And then for most of them, they're going

53:13to answer the same thing in the most

53:15logical and safe position, which is

53:17usually above the high that they're

53:19selling from. Then you also have when

53:22these buyers are entering the market,

53:23they're putting their stop losses down

53:25here. Now, they have to set a takerit

53:27level. And that take-profit level again

53:29usually comes at a high. So, they're

53:31saying, "I'm buying here. If it hits

53:33this point, I'll exit the trade." So,

53:35there is again more liquidity at that

53:37high. So now you have takerprofit levels

53:40and stop-loss levels. And then the same

53:42for this low, you're having stop losses

53:44and anyone who's selling from this

53:46region, right? A lot of people are

53:49placing takerit levels in this area. So

53:52that is more liquidity. So you have stop

53:54losses and take profits at the low,

53:57stop- losses and take profits at the

53:58high. Then there's another form of

54:00liquidity that comes in at highs, and

54:03those are your breakout traders. So

54:05breakout traders are typically people

54:07who look at getting into the market

54:10based off of a break of a high or a

54:12break of a low. So let's say for example

54:14price move like this and price enters

54:16into this high there will become

54:19breakout traders. So at this level you

54:22will see people who put buy stops in

54:25place that says if price trades past

54:28this level I will get entered into my

54:31buy position because they're expecting

54:33that if price breaks its high the trend

54:35is likely to continue. And so now you

54:38have the takerits of the buyers who

54:41brought in here. You have the stop-

54:43losses of the sellers who sold in here.

54:45and you have the entries of the

54:48potential buyers that are going to buy

54:50on the breakout. And so you can see how

54:52all of this liquidity starts piling

54:55above this high. The same is true on the

54:57opposite side of the market. If price

54:58enters down into this area and here,

55:00there are going to be sellers waiting

55:03for this price point to break so that

55:05they can get involved in sells and try

55:07to trade with the trend. When we trade

55:10through this area, their sell positions

55:12will be entered into the market at this

55:14level. So now all of a sudden at this

55:16low and at this high you have down here

55:18you have stop losses you have take

55:22profit levels and you have entry levels.

55:25So you can see how there is a lot of

55:28liquidity that rests just on the

55:30dependence of this low. The same is true

55:32for this high stop losses take profits

55:34and entry points. So there is a

55:36considerable amount of liquidity resting

55:38at highs and resting at lows as opposed

55:41to less liquidity that may just sit

55:44inside of the price range. Inside of the

55:46price leg usually most of the liquidity

55:49is going to be in the form of entries.

55:51So people who are entering inside of the

55:54price leg as opposed to people who are

55:56looking to break out and place their

55:58stop losses or their take profits. And

56:00so that's why the most common form of

56:02liquidity is going to be your highs and

56:05lows. Another way to look at highs and

56:08lows as liquidity is equal highs or

56:10equal lows or support and resistance.

56:13Pretty much the same thing. When you get

56:15price moves like this one in here and

56:17then somewhat of a reaction to the

56:19downside. When you get something like

56:20this, what happens is another form of

56:22market participants join in and the load

56:25gets even larger because as this high

56:27gets respected and starts trading away

56:29from it. Well, now you have different

56:31characters entering the markets. You had

56:33the old sellers that had their stop

56:35losses. You're going to have the old

56:36buyers who place their breakout trades.

56:38You're going to have the other buyers

56:39who place their takeprofits. Now, you're

56:42also going to have new sellers who step

56:45into the market because their strategy

56:47is equal highs or their strategy is an

56:50area of resistance. An old high that has

56:52traded back into and had a reaction

56:55induces a lot of market participants to

56:57come and trade and participate in the

57:00market at that level. And guess what?

57:01They too are placing stop- losses above

57:04these highs. The same again, more

57:06breakout traders come because now this

57:08isn't just a single high, it's equal

57:10highs. It's an area of resistance. So if

57:13we break out of this level, more traders

57:15will come because the breakout now isn't

57:17just a high. It's an area of resistance

57:20that they will hope gets turned into an

57:22area of support or the equal highs being

57:25taken out is a stronger sign of bullish

57:28momentum which induces more bias. So you

57:30have equal highs and then sometimes

57:32you'll have the same for equal lows like

57:34this. You have equal lows down here and

57:36that's going to give you the exact same.

57:38So what you want to be looking for are

57:40lows,

57:41highs, equal highs, equal lows. Some

57:45other forms are, you know, trend lines

57:48and some really powerful sessions,

57:51right? Because not all highs and lows

57:53are the same. Not all highs and lows are

57:55equal. There can be prioritized highs

57:58and prioritized lows. I'm going to dive

58:00deeper into that in phase three. So what

58:04is a liquidity sweep? And more

58:06importantly, why do they happen? Let's

58:08first start with what actually is a

58:10liquidity sweep. Very, very simply put,

58:12a liquidity sweep is when price breaches

58:16a high, fails to close above that high,

58:20wicks above that high, and then closes

58:23back inside of the price range. The

58:25opposite can also be true in a bearish

58:27example. Now, that is what a liquidity

58:30sweep looks like. That's the easy part.

58:32That's what everybody understands.

58:33Everybody understands what a liquidity

58:34sweep is, but very few understand why a

58:38liquidity sweep happens. To understand

58:40this, you need to understand the basics

58:42of an auction market theory.

58:44Essentially, for every buyer, there must

58:47be a seller. Meaning, if you want to buy

58:50100 lots of Euro dollar, there must be

58:54someone on the other side of the market

58:56willing to sell a 100 lots of Euro

58:59dollar. This could be 100 different

59:01people all selling one lot. It could be

59:04two bigger people looking to sell 50

59:06lots. It doesn't matter how many people.

59:09All that matters is how many lots are

59:11available at any one price point. Now

59:13that you understand that every buyer

59:15needs a seller and every seller needs a

59:17buyer, you need to understand how an

59:19institution operates. You see

59:21institutions when they want to place

59:23large orders in the market, they know

59:26that they have large volume. That means

59:29that if they want to place a position,

59:31it's going to be a big position. But for

59:33them to do that, they need somebody on

59:35the other side of the market to take

59:37that position. Well, what do you know?

59:39We understand that at highs and at lows,

59:43there are these large liquidity pockets.

59:46What is in those liquidity pockets is a

59:48large amount of orders. And so if an

59:51institution wanted to sell a 100,000

59:56lots of Euro dollar, let's say

59:58hypothetically, well, if they just sold

1:00:00at market price, here's what would

1:00:02happen. So this right here is the order

1:00:05flow. This is what's actually going on

1:00:08in the market. This is what the real

1:00:09market looks like. I'll throw a picture

1:00:11up of the real order flow right now. As

1:00:13you can see that this is a simplified

1:00:15version of it because I need to explain

1:00:17something to you. You see, every single

1:00:18candle that you see, every phase of

1:00:21candles, this is independent of time

1:00:23frame. So, if you're on a 15-minute time

1:00:25frame, this is a 15-minute candle. And

1:00:27inside of this 15-minute candle, you

1:00:29will see the 15minute order flow for

1:00:32that candle. Let's say that they were

1:00:33daily candles. So, inside of this would

1:00:36be the daily order flow. And inside of

1:00:37the daily order flow, you would see

1:00:39this. Now, inside the market, inside the

1:00:42order flow, you will see the bid and

1:00:43you'll see the ask. The bid is the

1:00:46demand. Those are the people who are

1:00:48willing to buy, right? They are bidding

1:00:50on price. Ask is the sellers. They are

1:00:53the ones who are selling. They are

1:00:55asking for the price. Hey, my asking

1:00:58price is this in order to sell. And then

1:01:00the price is the price. So at any one

1:01:02point in time, price will be sitting at

1:01:04any one point in price. That price is

1:01:07considered fair value by both market

1:01:10participants. And here's how it works.

1:01:11The market is comprised of two sides,

1:01:13active and passive. You have active

1:01:15buyers and passive buyers. An active

1:01:17buyer is someone who will step in at the

1:01:20current market price and execute orders.

1:01:24They don't care about waiting for price

1:01:26to come back down to a certain level.

1:01:27They want to buy right now and so they

1:01:29are willing to buy at a premium. Same

1:01:32for sellers. Active sellers are willing

1:01:34to sell at this specific price right

1:01:36now. They're not waiting for price to

1:01:38come back. Passive buyers and passive

1:01:40sellers are people who are waiting for

1:01:42price to come into a certain area and

1:01:44then they will buy or then they will

1:01:47sell. So when you're looking at the

1:01:48order book you'll see all of these

1:01:49pending orders. What these are are

1:01:52potential fills meaning at any one point

1:01:55in time these orders can be removed

1:01:58unless they get triggered. When they get

1:01:59triggered then they get activated into

1:02:01the market. So here's how it works and

1:02:03here's how you see a candle actually get

1:02:05formed in real time. This candle, the

1:02:08new day is opening at 104 like this.

1:02:11What happens is at some point in time,

1:02:13let's say an active buyer steps into the

1:02:16market and they want to buy let's say 50

1:02:21lots of Euro dollar. And so they want to

1:02:23buy right now 50 lots of Euro dollar.

1:02:25Well, there is nobody at 104 willing to

1:02:28sell. So what happens is the price seeks

1:02:32the next block of liquidity like this.

1:02:34And then you see the candle move and

1:02:36this then becomes a bullish candle. So

1:02:39you see that we come up into here and

1:02:41you see there are nine lots here. Well,

1:02:43what happens is these nine lots go to

1:02:45zero and whoever was selling these nine

1:02:47lots, they get filled on their cells.

1:02:50But this trader here still has 41 lots

1:02:54that are left unfilled. So then if

1:02:56there's no sellers here, then it's going

1:02:58to go to the next block of liquidity and

1:03:01then it's going to go to 106. At this

1:03:03point, there are 40 units to sell. And

1:03:06so, these 40 get consumed and they go to

1:03:07zero. And all of these sellers get

1:03:09triggered into their trade. But there's

1:03:11still one unit left unfilled. And so,

1:03:13price has to go to the next available

1:03:16block of liquidity to take that. And one

1:03:19of these 30 units will get triggered as

1:03:22a sell. And then there'll be 29 left at

1:03:24this price. But the reality is there's

1:03:26nobody willing to buy from them at this

1:03:29price point. So, they don't get filled.

1:03:30So, if sometimes you have a wonder, you

1:03:32take a trade and prices hit your entry,

1:03:34but you still don't get filled into your

1:03:36position, that's because there is no

1:03:38liquidity available for your order

1:03:41specifically to get filled at that price

1:03:43point. Then, let's say, for whatever

1:03:44reason, this is our high. So, we're

1:03:47going to map out this right here as our

1:03:50highest point of price. And then, we're

1:03:52going to do it to the low of price right

1:03:55here. Then, let's say an active seller

1:03:58comes into the market. And let's say a

1:04:00seller steps in uh who's willing to sell

1:04:02at this specific price for 50 lots

1:04:06again. And let's say there are you know

1:04:08like four lots or something at this

1:04:10price point. Then what happens? Price

1:04:12goes and seeks where the liquidity is.

1:04:15So there's no buyers in this price

1:04:18point. So price skips this level. Inside

1:04:20of here there are four lots. Those four

1:04:22lots get consumed by the 50. We're still

1:04:24left with 46. Then you have seven in

1:04:27here, nine in here and 10 in here. Not

1:04:30enough to fill the 50. So price comes

1:04:31into here to collect the seven, the

1:04:34nine, the 10, whatever it is. And then

1:04:36this is where price ends up. Now that

1:04:39once bullish candle then turns into a

1:04:42bearish candle and that is essentially

1:04:44how the candle gets formed. Now why this

1:04:47is important is because I need you to

1:04:48understand something. Let's say for

1:04:50example a large institution steps into

1:04:52the market and they actually want to buy

1:04:55a,000 lots worth of Euro dollar at this

1:04:58point right here right 1.01 that's their

1:05:02target price when institutions come into

1:05:04the market and they build a position

1:05:06because institutions don't just place a

1:05:08trade they build a position I'll explain

1:05:10why in a moment so they've got an

1:05:11intention of placing a th00and units of

1:05:15Euro dollar and they have a target of 1

1:05:1902 to be their average price. Now,

1:05:21here's what happens. Let's say there's

1:05:22100 in here, you know, 20 in here, 50 in

1:05:26here. The likelihood is is there isn't

1:05:28enough liquidity available on the other

1:05:30side to fill those 10,000 orders. So,

1:05:32instead of the institutions coming into

1:05:34the market and placing all their 1,000

1:05:36at one time because what happens is if

1:05:38they do that, price would end up going

1:05:40from here and absolutely skyrocketing

1:05:43all the way up here. And then all of a

1:05:46sudden, you know, they might have got

1:05:47filled 20 down here, you know, 30 here,

1:05:51100 in here, 300 in here. And all of a

1:05:54sudden, their target of getting an

1:05:57average order value of 1.02 completely

1:06:00evaporates. And now they're getting 1.1,

1:06:04right? Completely out of alignment with

1:06:06what they wanted to. So, what they do is

1:06:08they slowly build a position. They'll

1:06:11put in 50 now and then it won't really

1:06:13move price. and then more sellers will

1:06:15step in and they'll put another 50 and

1:06:17another 50 and another 50 and another

1:06:1850. Right? That's kind of how they build

1:06:20out a position. That's why you'll often

1:06:22see that institutions build positions in

1:06:25ranging markets. Now, here's the other

1:06:28thing that they will do. They understand

1:06:30that at these highs and at these lows,

1:06:33there is a lot of liquidity, right? So

1:06:36maybe above this high there might be a

1:06:39thousand units to sell at this level.

1:06:44Why? Because you have buyers take

1:06:45profits that act as sell. You have

1:06:48breakout traders that are acting as

1:06:50sellside liquidity as well. So what

1:06:52you'll see is they will sometimes

1:06:54strategically push price into these

1:06:57areas so that all of those units of

1:07:00sales get flooded into the market. And

1:07:03guess who's there ready to buy them up

1:07:05and absorb them? That is going to be

1:07:07these guys. These guys are sitting in

1:07:10here. If this institution wants to,

1:07:12let's say, sell, you know, a,000 units,

1:07:15for example, at this price point, right?

1:07:18Or in and around these areas. Let's say

1:07:20they're in here. What they'll do is

1:07:21they'll nudge price up into these

1:07:23liquidity pockets up in here where they

1:07:25know there is a large amount of buyers,

1:07:28right? There are breakout traders in

1:07:30here. There are take-profit levels.

1:07:32there are stop-loss levels. Um, there's

1:07:34a bunch of liquidity that sits in here.

1:07:38So, they know that they can nudge price

1:07:39up a little bit, trigger all this

1:07:41liquidity, and then take the other side

1:07:44of it to get a good fill of their value.

1:07:47And they'll do that, and they'll push

1:07:49price into these levels, making

1:07:50everybody believe that the market is,

1:07:54you know, bullish, having buyers flood

1:07:56to the market so that they can get their

1:07:59sell positions in. Now, you'll know that

1:08:02this is happening when you see that

1:08:05price wicks above the high because what

1:08:08happens is as price approaches a high

1:08:10and trades above that level, this is

1:08:12where the magic happens. All of the

1:08:15buyers that are stepping in here, this

1:08:18institution is absorbing all the sales,

1:08:20absorbing all the sells until

1:08:21eventually, guess what? There's no more

1:08:23buyers left at this price point. And so

1:08:26now all there is is the rest of the

1:08:28sellers that were sitting at this price

1:08:30point. And so price then comes back

1:08:33down. It closes below this previous

1:08:36high. And that is your telltale sign.

1:08:40Why? Because what the market is saying

1:08:43is that the market and all its

1:08:45participants do not agree that price

1:08:48should be trading higher than this

1:08:49level. They agree that price should be

1:08:50trading lower than this level. And so

1:08:53now the likelihood is is that we get an

1:08:57aggressive selloff that goes in this

1:09:01direction. That is a liquidity sweep. A

1:09:03liquidity sweep is when price

1:09:05aggressively runs a high, wicks above

1:09:08it, and then closes inside of it. But

1:09:10like I said, the why behind it is what's

1:09:13most important because that when we get

1:09:15into the next stage is going to give you

1:09:17a good understanding of context. So

1:09:20understanding that when we liquidate

1:09:22this level and close back inside of the

1:09:24range, that is a liquidity sweep. But

1:09:26like I said, they happen all the time

1:09:28and not all of them work. It's about

1:09:30identifying which ones work and most

1:09:32importantly why. And I'm going to get to

1:09:33that in just a moment. So that is a

1:09:35liquidity sweep and that is ultimately a

1:09:37large part as to why liquidity sweeps

1:09:41occur. Now we need to understand what's

1:09:43a run on liquidity. So a run on

1:09:46liquidity and a sweep of liquidity are

1:09:48two very different things. And the

1:09:50reality is is most people get these

1:09:52confused or they call the same thing.

1:09:55They call different things the same

1:09:56thing, not really understanding what is

1:09:58actually going on and what is the

1:10:00difference. So let me explain it to you

1:10:02now. You see how liquidity sweep was

1:10:04when price trades over a high and then

1:10:08closes back inside with a wick on the

1:10:12top like this indicating lower prices.

1:10:15This indicates a rejection, right? A

1:10:18rejection of the idea that price should

1:10:20trade higher, therefore it's likely to

1:10:22trade lower. It's a resistance to that

1:10:24idea. Well, a liquidity run is quite

1:10:27literally the opposite. A liquidity run

1:10:29is when price aggressively trades above

1:10:32a high and then also continues with that

1:10:36same level of momentum. Now, there's two

1:10:38very different dynamics that occur

1:10:40between a sweep and a run. And I want to

1:10:42explain that to you using kind of this

1:10:45um order flow in here. So what is a

1:10:50liquidity run and why is that a lot

1:10:53different than a liquidity sweep?

1:10:55You see a liquidity run is used

1:10:57differently because it's used to fuel a

1:10:59move as opposed to something else. Let's

1:11:03say you know you can quite clearly see

1:11:05that we have a low a high a higher low

1:11:08meaning that this low is higher than the

1:11:10previous one indicating signs of bullish

1:11:11order flow. Then you have a higher high

1:11:14meaning this high here is higher than

1:11:15the previous one indicating bullish

1:11:17signs of order flow. So the

1:11:18expectational order flow right the

1:11:20structure of price is bullish. So you're

1:11:23expecting higher prices. Well we know

1:11:25that down here we have liquidity up here

1:11:28we also have liquidity. Now the market

1:11:31is bullish but still there are obviously

1:11:34sellers inside of this price level. So

1:11:36when a seller has their position up here

1:11:39well their stop losses act as buyside

1:11:43liquidity and then you also have

1:11:45breakout traders that act as buyside

1:11:47liquidity.

1:11:49And so a liquidity run is when that

1:11:52liquidity is used to fuel a move. Right?

1:11:56So let's say for example you know um

1:11:59large money institutions were building

1:12:01up a position and let's say as price is

1:12:03kind of ranging around in these levels

1:12:05in here you know they're building a

1:12:06position they may give a little bit of a

1:12:08liquidation of an internal low whilst

1:12:10they're building their position like

1:12:11this right once they've built their

1:12:13position they've got a nice amount of

1:12:16orders set to go long then what they

1:12:19might do is they might initiate a little

1:12:22bit of a bullish move because they

1:12:24understand that by doing so that is

1:12:27going to induce buyers to step into the

1:12:29market and allow the market to move in

1:12:32the direction they need to go in.

1:12:33Because once they've built their

1:12:35position, they can't build a position

1:12:37and then also move price because what

1:12:40would be the point of that? It wouldn't

1:12:41really make much sense for them. So what

1:12:43they do is they build the position, they

1:12:46start the run and then they let the rest

1:12:48of the market, the herd take their

1:12:51position where they want to go. So

1:12:53they've built their position in here.

1:12:55They'll give price a little bit of a

1:12:56nudge. Bearing in mind we're already in

1:12:57bullish order flow. So the likelihood is

1:12:59we're going to go long anyway. And so

1:13:01what happens when they give that little

1:13:02nudge is that buyers start stepping into

1:13:04the market. And eventually when we go

1:13:07through this high which is the logical

1:13:09phase of price

1:13:12there is number one everyone who's

1:13:14already buying and everyone who's

1:13:16rushing to buy late. Number two all of

1:13:18the sellers that start to get in. That's

1:13:20why sometimes you see a rejection of a

1:13:21high as well because it induces more

1:13:23sellers to create more liquidity. Well,

1:13:25what happens then is when price reaches

1:13:27this level in here and all of these stop

1:13:30losses get filled and all of these um

1:13:34breakout traders get into the market,

1:13:36what happens is price

1:13:40runs itself,

1:13:42right? because the momentum of all the

1:13:45liquidity that gets filled in at this

1:13:47level. Plus, nobody wants to sell price

1:13:50really after we break out the high. So,

1:13:52there's less sellers, right? Which means

1:13:54it's easier for price to increase and

1:13:57there are more buyers. So, you have a

1:13:58lot of buyers, not many sellers, and

1:14:01therefore the price rockets with ease.

1:14:04What that does is that takes this

1:14:08position

1:14:09well into profit and that is a liquidity

1:14:12run. That is when price aggressively

1:14:14breaks a high but uses the liquidity

1:14:17that's sitting at that high as momentum

1:14:20to continue. Whereas a liquidity

1:14:22[snorts]

1:14:23sweep uses that liquidity at a high as a

1:14:26mechanism to get filled on the opposite

1:14:28side of their orders where you can

1:14:30expect price to go lower. So, they're

1:14:32two very different things used for very

Daily Bias

1:14:34different reasons.

1:14:38Literally, just one candle is all you

1:14:40need to become insanely profitable as a

1:14:43trader. And in this video, I'm going to

1:14:44show you exactly [music] how to

1:14:46understand the one candle rule and how

1:14:48to execute it into a live trading

1:14:50strategy. So, without further ado, let's

1:14:52jump straight in. Now, what you can see

1:14:53on screen right here is the trade that

1:14:55I'm going to be walking you through.

1:14:56It's the trade that was executed today

1:14:58and a bunch of the inner circle students

1:15:00also took this exact trade because of

1:15:03this one candle model. Now, the one

1:15:05candle that I'm talking about is the

1:15:07daily candle and I'm going to show you

1:15:08in this video how you can use [music]

1:15:09the daily bias to consistently generate

1:15:12income from trading. Now, there are

1:15:14three main things that I want to walk

1:15:15you through in this video. The first one

1:15:17is how to read the previous day's candle

1:15:20to [music] understand what today is

1:15:21likely going to do. The second one is

1:15:23higher time frame magnetism. And

1:15:26finally, the third one is entries,

1:15:28right? How do you actually enter based

1:15:30off of your daily bias? That's when I'll

1:15:32recap the exact trade that I took today.

1:15:34So, here I am on the daily time frame

1:15:37and I'm starting from the 13th of

1:15:39October. We're in early December right

1:15:41now. In fact, this trade was executed on

1:15:43the 3rd of December. And I'm going to

1:15:44literally walk you through every single

1:15:46daily candle to show you how you can

1:15:49predict the next day's candle. And then

1:15:51I'm also going to explain draws on

1:15:53liquidity/ area of interest. This is

1:15:55what's going to give you an edge in

1:15:56understanding where the daily might

1:15:58gravitate towards. And then finally,

1:15:59when we get to today, I'll show you how

1:16:01I used this daily candle model and how I

1:16:04was able to get into my position and the

1:16:06exact trade that I took. So, starting

1:16:08off plain and simple, predicting the

1:16:10daily candle, you can basically with a

1:16:12very high degree of accuracy understand

1:16:14what the next daily candle is going to

1:16:16look like based off of what the previous

1:16:18day's candle looks like. So, we'll walk

1:16:20through step by step and I'll explain it

1:16:22all. So, we'll start with where we're

1:16:23at, right? Monday the 13th of October.

1:16:25You can see this is a bearish daily

1:16:27candle and it's honestly very

1:16:28indecisive. So a candle like this and a

1:16:31day like this doesn't really give us any

1:16:32information. We don't actually know what

1:16:34the next day is going to do. We're kind

1:16:35of in a consolidation phase. What I will

1:16:37say is that the market is always ranging

1:16:40from consolidation to expansion back

1:16:45into consolidation back into either

1:16:49expansion in the buy side or expansion

1:16:51toward the sell side. So, we know we're

1:16:53going to be gearing up for a direct

1:16:55move. We just need to see the direction

1:16:56of that. And so, the next daily candle

1:16:58prints like this. Now, very, very

1:17:01important details. Notice, right, that

1:17:03this is a bullish daily candle. That's

1:17:04the first thing I want you to see here

1:17:07that we open down here. We wick below

1:17:10the low and then we close toward the buy

1:17:12side of this daily candle. Right? So, we

1:17:14have a bullish daily candle that has

1:17:16wicked below the previous day's low and

1:17:18closed back inside of the range. Already

1:17:21that immediately tells me tomorrow is a

1:17:23bullish day. And on this candle, what we

1:17:25can see is that we open down here. We

1:17:27have a very bullish aggression and we're

1:17:30closing toward the buy side again above

1:17:33the previous day's high. Closed toward

1:17:34the buy side. It tells me again that

1:17:37tomorrow is going to be a bullish day or

1:17:39at least we are going to get a bullish

1:17:41expansion. Again, another bullish move.

1:17:44We've broken above that previous day's

1:17:45high and we've closed up in here. Again,

1:17:48that tells me that we're definitely

1:17:49going to be targeting this day's high

1:17:51and you know, we're going to be

1:17:53essentially ending up higher than the

1:17:55previous day's high. Okay. Now, what we

1:17:57see here is a bearish daily candle,

1:18:00right? But we were expecting higher

1:18:01prices this daily candle right here. And

1:18:04if I just focus on just this daily

1:18:05candle, and let's say we drop down to a

1:18:071 hour time frame, right? Here we are, 1

1:18:08hour time frame. In fact, let's go to a

1:18:1015-inut real quick. So, the day opens

1:18:15here, right? This is where the daily

1:18:17candle opens. It opens on the and this

1:18:20is the daily candle. So this is the

1:18:23daily close to daily open. So it opens

1:18:26here. So you see that we actually open

1:18:28first going bullish. So the bias was

1:18:31higher prices. We got those higher

1:18:32prices and then eventually price sells

1:18:35off. And that's what that daily candle

1:18:37looks like. So if we go back to the

1:18:38daily time frame, what this now tells me

1:18:41is that tomorrow is going to be bearish

1:18:43because we've hit these highs. We've

1:18:45wicked above this high. So, you're

1:18:47looking for a wick above and a close

1:18:49back inside bearish. That tells me that

1:18:52tomorrow is going to be bearish. But

1:18:53also, what do we have? Right, this is

1:18:55step number two. Again, it's just

1:18:57reading your draw on liquidity. You can

1:18:59see here that we have this bullish fair

1:19:01value gap. So, tomorrow then I can

1:19:03already anticipate there's a good chance

1:19:05that we're going to trade bearish and

1:19:07we're going to enter in toward this fair

1:19:10value gap, right? That's what I have in

1:19:12mind. And again, I'm just want to

1:19:13predict the next daily candle. And

1:19:15again, what do you see? The next daily

1:19:17candle is another bearish candle, right?

1:19:18We've closed below and we've ended up

1:19:20inside this level. Now, the key here is

1:19:23the power of three, right? Many people,

1:19:25you've probably heard them talk about

1:19:26the power of three. The power of three

1:19:28is essentially a manipulation and

1:19:32distribution, right? So, you have, you

1:19:34know, a rangebound period like this and

1:19:36then you have a manipulation

1:19:39and then you have a distribution. That's

1:19:41kind of the power of three and it

1:19:43essentially states that before price

1:19:45will trade lower, it will first trade

1:19:46higher. You can see that time and time

1:19:48again in this model, right? So you can

1:19:50see here we've broken and closed below

1:19:51this low. But notice that beforehand

1:19:54there's a good chance that we actually

1:19:55come higher and then lower. What I want

1:19:58to be is I want to be a seller at this

1:20:00level of price. So if we do the same

1:20:02thing again, if we square off this price

1:20:04action and we go to yesterday's open and

1:20:07close. So here's the fair value gap down

1:20:09here. If we remove this for now and we

1:20:11find the open of this day is here 5:00 p

1:20:14p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Notice that

1:20:16we're expecting bearish price. But

1:20:18before we get the selloff, we get first

1:20:20a bullish move, right? That's the

1:20:22manipulation of the day and then the

1:20:24sell-off. So I, someone who wants to be

1:20:25a seller, I'm waiting for that

1:20:27manipulation and then I'm looking to

1:20:29sell after that manipulation occurs.

1:20:30It's always the same thing again. We'll

1:20:32always get the pullback and

1:20:33continuation. That's the same thing,

1:20:35right? All right. It's like before you

1:20:36trade lower, if you have a bearish daily

1:20:38bias, the next day you're expecting, you

1:20:40know, a manipulation before the

1:20:41continuation lower and you want to

1:20:43basically be selling here. If this is

1:20:45the daily open, first we're going to

1:20:47manipulate toward the buy side, then

1:20:48we're going to sell off toward the sell

1:20:49side. And that is essentially what we're

1:20:50seeing. And so for me now, what I would

1:20:53be looking at for the next level is

1:20:55first and foremost, let's also talk

1:20:57about more drawn liquidity. What do we

1:20:59have here, right? Equal lows down here

1:21:01at these lows. Also, if you look down

1:21:04here, we have this overlapping fair

1:21:06value gap. Very, very interesting area.

1:21:09An area that I was talking to my

1:21:10students with for a couple of weeks,

1:21:13saying that ultimately we will probably

1:21:14end up trading into this level. Equal

1:21:15lows down here and an overlapping fair

1:21:17value gap. So, we also have this as a

1:21:20draw on liquidity, right? Or a bias to

1:21:22trade towards. Again, looking at the

1:21:24next daily candle, what do you think is

1:21:25going to happen? For me, I'm indicating

1:21:27more likely that we're going to get more

1:21:29bearish price action, right? Another

1:21:31bearish continuation. What happens? We

1:21:33open. We first have a run toward the buy

1:21:35side and then we have the sell-off doing

1:21:37what again? That same pattern, right? We

1:21:40have our open manipulation and move

1:21:45toward the sell side, right? And now

1:21:46what have we done? Now we've closed over

1:21:49that fair value gap. So we've inverted

1:21:50that fair value gap, which then also

1:21:52becomes another area of interest for me.

1:21:54So if I was to let's say be a seller

1:21:57now, right? An interesting move could be

1:21:59a retracement into here and then a

1:22:00continuation out of here. Right? This is

1:22:02how you're building daily bias

1:22:03essentially. Now notice what happens

1:22:05here. This time we actually have a

1:22:07bullish daily candle. And notice that

1:22:08we've wicked below this low and closed

1:22:11back inside. That to me is typically

1:22:13sign of a reversal. Right? So what I

1:22:15would now be looking for is now we have

1:22:18this bullish fair value gap in here

1:22:20which is also overlapping. Now, I would

1:22:23be expecting the next day to trade

1:22:25higher above this previous day's high

1:22:28and into this level right here. Right?

1:22:32Simple as that. That's what I would be

1:22:33looking for. And what you notice is on

1:22:34this specific day, we actually don't get

1:22:36that. So, we do get the open, we do get

1:22:38the manipulation, and we do start

1:22:39getting the momentum. So, definitely you

1:22:41could have been in a trade at these

1:22:43lows. And again, if I open up the

1:22:4515-minut time frame, which is my primary

1:22:47time frame for direction, you'll notice

1:22:49what market opens. We have the bearish

1:22:51manipulation, right? Even look at the

1:22:53structure on the 15-minut time frame. We

1:22:55were very bearish. Now we've shifted

1:22:57bullish, right? Which is yesterday's

1:22:59manipulation and close above the high

1:23:02and now we're selling off again. Longs

1:23:05accumulated in this New York session and

1:23:06you're just holding them ready for the

1:23:08next day. We're probably going to end up

1:23:09in this level. So, it's the same thing,

1:23:11right? Just because we haven't fulfilled

1:23:13the prophecy yet, we've still been able

1:23:15to probably execute long positions in

1:23:17this area. And again, we go back to the

1:23:18daily, right? We've still anticipated

1:23:20bullish price action for that day after

1:23:22the manipulation, right? So, anytime

1:23:24that I have a bias to go higher, I first

1:23:27want it to go lower before it goes

1:23:28higher. And I want to try to buy in this

1:23:30level. So, this day, what would I be

1:23:32expecting? A continuation higher above

1:23:34these two highs. And that's what

1:23:36happens, right? We get that move, we

1:23:37open, we pull back, and we continue

1:23:39trading higher. Now, what we've done is

1:23:41now we've come back into this bearish

1:23:44order block. You can use this level, you

1:23:45can use this candle regardless, and

1:23:46we've had quite an aggressive reaction

1:23:48from it. But notice we have actually

1:23:50closed above the previous day's high. So

1:23:52what this tells me is there is a lower

1:23:54level of conviction, meaning the next

1:23:56day is a day where it could go higher,

1:23:58but it also could go lower. So you keep

1:24:00those things in mind, but ultimately

1:24:02it's a bullish candle. So you'd be

1:24:04expecting probably a continuation,

1:24:05right? Which is what we get. We get the

1:24:07open, low, high, close. So again, it's

1:24:12the same thing. price is trading higher,

1:24:13but before it's trading higher, it's

1:24:15opening, coming down, and then trading

1:24:18higher, and then closing here, right?

1:24:20And so, you're getting the open, low,

1:24:22high, close. That's what that is. So,

1:24:24again, you're accumulating long

1:24:26positions in these levels based off of

1:24:28just the daily candle. Like, it's

1:24:29literally that simple. So, for this day

1:24:31now, what we can see is we have a

1:24:33bullish candle, but we have wicked above

1:24:35this high and closed back inside of the

1:24:37range. This tells me that this could be

1:24:39a reversal, but it could also be a

1:24:41continuation. Again, there is a little

1:24:43bit less clarity on the situation.

1:24:45You're not going to get every single day

1:24:47absolutely correct. That's not the game

1:24:48of trading. The game of trading is

A Little Extra From Me

1:24:50probabilities. Hey, again, again, just

1:24:52give me one second. I want to quickly

1:24:53share something with you, which is an

1:24:55update since I've last produced this

1:24:57video, which is again going to help you

1:24:58even more. So, what you're looking at

1:24:59right now is the data on what exactly

1:25:02you're watching, right? You're watching

1:25:03the daily bias. Now, I'm not someone who

1:25:05likes to just give ideas and things that

1:25:07look cool. No, I'm a data driven trader.

1:25:09That's how you really actually get

1:25:10results in trading. So this is what I

1:25:12want to share with you. This what you're

1:25:13looking at right now, it looks

1:25:14complicated but it's really simple. This

1:25:15is for the both daily and weekly bias.

1:25:18So what I'm explaining to you, the

1:25:19concepts I'm explaining to you, we have

1:25:20gone and done a deep dive data

1:25:23collection with over 15 years of data.

1:25:26So looking at every single daily and

1:25:28weekly candle over the past 15 years,

1:25:31this is what we found. We found that the

1:25:33bullish bias is accurate on average 67%

1:25:38of the time. The bearish is accurate

1:25:40roughly 67% of the time as well. So the

1:25:43daily bias that I'm sharing with you

1:25:44right now over the past 15 years, right,

1:25:47which is 5,469

1:25:50daily candles, it has been accurate 67%

1:25:53of the time. And we did the exact same

1:25:55thing for weekly. And weekly was

1:25:56actually slightly higher. It was

1:25:58actually 68% overall. So you can see

1:26:00bearish and bullish. So we are able to

1:26:02consistently predict the daily and

1:26:04weekly bias with a 68% degree of

1:26:06accuracy. And not only that, what I

1:26:09shared with you earlier on market

1:26:10structure, we've actually built in to

1:26:12this same indicator. So you can see here

1:26:14we it shows us our market structure, but

1:26:16in the top right corner here, it

1:26:19actually also shows us the directional

1:26:21bias. So you can see here it tells us

1:26:23that the weekly is bearish and the daily

1:26:25is actually bearish. So it tells us our

1:26:28directional bias. The direction of bias

1:26:30is quite literally built into this

1:26:31indicator as well as normal market

1:26:34structure depending on what time it is

1:26:36that you're looking at. So yeah, I

1:26:37thought I would share that with you.

1:26:38Again, just a general reminder. You can

1:26:39check it out. The link is in the

1:26:41description. So the next day we get that

1:26:43continuation again, right? Higher

1:26:45prices, but notice that the momentum is

1:26:47starting to kind of fade away. So again,

1:26:48what do we get? A wick above the high

1:26:50and close back inside. So again, this

1:26:52for me now, when you're wicking above

1:26:54this high, closing inside the range,

1:26:56it's usually indication of a reversal,

1:26:58but you could also continue before you

1:27:00reverse, right? So a lot of the times

1:27:02when you get these types of candles

1:27:03where they're wick heavy, you'll

1:27:04probably see before a reversal, maybe a

1:27:06sweep of a high. If we look at this

1:27:08level, okay, so the next day, we don't

1:27:10get that. We get a very aggressive

1:27:12sell-off, right? So [snorts] we close

1:27:14below that previous day's low. We open

1:27:16here, we manipulate toward the buy side,

1:27:18we have an aggressive selloff, we close

1:27:20below the previous day's low for me. Now

1:27:21the next day is simple. We have equal

1:27:23lows down here. Again, that number two

1:27:25draw in liquidity, that bias. We have

1:27:27those equal lows as a draw in liquidity.

1:27:29We have these equal lows as a draw in

1:27:31liquidity. So what am I looking for

1:27:32today? This is a very obvious day. I'm

1:27:34expecting a pullback and then a selloff.

1:27:37Right? That's the daily bias. What

1:27:39happens? Again, we can go into the

1:27:4015-minut time frame. You can see we

1:27:42open, we put in the high, and then we

1:27:44sell off aggressively. Right? Perfect

1:27:46opportunity, perfect day to be getting

1:27:47into short positions, right? Where does

1:27:49the market open? Market opens here at

1:27:515:00 p.m. What happens? We pull back

1:27:54into this area and then we sell off. In

1:27:57London session, we're good to be

1:27:58selling. New York session, sell

1:28:00continuation, right? Same thing. All

1:28:01based off the previous days candle.

1:28:04That's it. Just the daily bias, right?

1:28:06So, the market, we open, we put in the

1:28:09high, and then we sell off aggressively.

1:28:11So, what do you think I'm expecting

1:28:12today? Well, now we've taken out this

1:28:14drawn liquidity, but we still have this

1:28:15one down here. We've closed below that

1:28:17low, right? aggressive close below that

1:28:19low and now I'm expecting what? A

1:28:21pullback and continuation again. What

1:28:23happens? Open, pull back, continuation,

1:28:26right? Perfect mitigation of this

1:28:28previous day's low. What do I'm

1:28:29expecting again? Well, now we've taken

1:28:30the draw in liquidity. We've hit the

1:28:32draw in liquidity, right? We've also hit

1:28:34into this fair value gap. But we have

1:28:36again closed below that low. And so I am

1:28:39most likely expecting lower prices for

1:28:41this day. And again, what do we get? We

1:28:43get open, pullback, selloff. So again,

1:28:47this is where you want to be looking at

1:28:48it. Before this day even opens, you're

1:28:50expecting, okay, today I'm going to be

1:28:51bearish. We're going to have a bullish

1:28:53pullback. I'm going to sell. Go lower.

1:28:55Next day, bearish, bullish pullback. I'm

1:28:57going to be a seller. Go lower. Next

1:28:58day, bearish, bullish, pullback. I'm a

1:29:00seller. Go lower right on this day. Now,

1:29:02notice that the momentum is starting to

1:29:04get a little bit slower. Now, we're

1:29:06inside of our draw on liquidity. Now,

1:29:08you can start adding that into the

1:29:10context of slowing down and expect that

1:29:11maybe at some point we'll start to get a

1:29:13reversal. But still for this specific

1:29:15day, my next daily bias would still be

1:29:17bearish. Why? Because we've closed below

1:29:19the previous day's low. Again, what do

1:29:21we get? Open, pullback, sell off. Again,

1:29:24you're just a seller in this market. The

1:29:26next day, what am I expecting? Another

1:29:28sell. Now, notice that we do get the

1:29:30sell, right? So, we do trade below this

1:29:32low, which was the goal of the day. But

1:29:34now, notice what happens. We have a

1:29:36bullish day and we actually have a wick

1:29:38below previous day's low and a close

1:29:40back inside. This for me is literally a

1:29:43SOS that we are about to reverse. The

1:29:45market is going to now trade bullish.

1:29:47And it's very simple. Now you look and

1:29:48you see, okay, well, we actually have

1:29:50number one point of interest that we're

1:29:52trading out of. Secondly, we have a

1:29:53bullish fair value gap here. We have a

1:29:55bullish fair value gap here, right? So

1:29:58now we have these higher time frame

1:30:00areas of interest or draws on liquidity

1:30:02that we're expecting price to trade back

1:30:03into. So now what do you think I'm

1:30:04looking for? Now today, I'm expecting to

1:30:07be a buyer. Price is going to pull back

1:30:09in here and then shoot off up here. Pull

1:30:10back in here and shoot up off in here.

1:30:12Right? So, what does the next day do?

1:30:14The next day, we open here. A very small

1:30:16pullback and a very aggressive bullish

1:30:18candle. Well, now what do you think I'm

1:30:21expecting price to do on this next day?

1:30:24Again, I'm expecting that we're going to

1:30:25have another bullish day, right? A

1:30:27little pullback and continuation. What

1:30:30happens? Market opens, we sell off, and

1:30:32we go higher, right? 50-minut time

1:30:35frame. What does that look like? Again,

1:30:36perfect opportunity to get longs. Right,

1:30:38the market opens here. Market opens, we

1:30:42sell off, London opens, right? There's a

1:30:44perfect entry opportunity in here. We

1:30:46traded long on this position.

1:30:49Market booms towards the upside, which

1:30:50is expected. So, they get the

1:30:52manipulation, you wait for the

1:30:53manipulation, you wait for the

1:30:54confirmation on the lower time frames,

1:30:56and then you execute and long, right?

1:30:58It's so simple. It literally works every

1:31:01day. So, now what do we have? We've

1:31:02filled all of those levels. Now we have

1:31:04a bearish draw on liquidity, right? Cuz

1:31:06now we have this daily fed value gap.

1:31:09Notice that we have been accurate with a

1:31:11like 95% level of accuracy. Now this day

1:31:15is indecisive. We don't get a shift

1:31:17higher or we don't get a shift lower.

1:31:18That for me again is quite indecisive. I

1:31:20don't have a read on the next day. But

1:31:22then what happens? Then we get a bullish

1:31:25candle. Now we've wicked above this high

1:31:28and closed back inside. And we haven't

1:31:31closed above any candles. So that for me

1:31:33is usually a sign of a reversal. But

1:31:35because it's a bullish day, it could

1:31:37still trade higher before the reversal,

1:31:39right? And again, what do we have?

1:31:41Pretty much an undecided day. But we do

1:31:43have a bullish day and it has closed

1:31:46above this high and above this high. So

1:31:48I would be expecting for price on this

1:31:50day to trade into this old high. Right?

1:31:53Very simple. And that's what we have.

1:31:55Open pullback trade into the high. Now

1:31:57we have a very bullish day. I would be

1:31:59expecting what? You answer this at home.

1:32:01Where do you think I'm expecting price

1:32:02to go? Higher, right? Yes. On this day,

1:32:06it doesn't happen. In fact, we failed to

1:32:08take out the high and now we have a

1:32:09bearish candle. So today, what I would

1:32:12be expecting is lower prices. We have a

1:32:14fair value gap here, right? We have a

1:32:16bullish fair value gap here, bullish

1:32:18value gap down here. I'd be expecting

1:32:19lower prices on this day. What happens?

1:32:21Market opens, pullback, selloff. We've

1:32:24closed below this low. What do you think

1:32:26I'm expecting that price is going to do

1:32:28today? Same thing again. Bearish open,

1:32:31pull back, sell off. Perfectly into that

1:32:33old low. We close below. What do you

1:32:35think I'm expecting? Another bearish

1:32:37day, right? Pull back, sell off. Very

1:32:40aggressive. Where into that draw on

1:32:42liquidity? Okay, fine. Another bearish

1:32:45day. Where do you think I'm expecting

1:32:46price to go? Lower again. Perfect. But

1:32:49then what happens now? We do get lower

1:32:51prices. We could have been a seller, but

1:32:55now we have a clear reversal indication.

1:32:57We're coming from a point of interest.

1:32:59We've wicked below the low and we've

1:33:01clearly closed well above that previous

1:33:03day's low. Now I'm expecting a reversal.

1:33:06I'm expecting a bullish candle. What

1:33:08else do we have? We have bullish daily

1:33:10fair value gap in this scenario. We get

1:33:12both, right? And that can happen. We get

1:33:14the run higher and we get the run lower.

1:33:16But for me again, even still a wick

1:33:19below the low and a close back inside.

1:33:22That's probably more indication of a

1:33:24bullish day for the next day. And we do

1:33:26have that bullish day next day. Now

1:33:27notice you go from expansion a little

1:33:30bit rangebound. So on this type of day,

1:33:32I don't have a clear definite read on

1:33:35price. I'm just not sure. But what I do

1:33:37see here is we have created a swing low.

1:33:39Right? We have one low, two lows, and a

1:33:41swing here. So this could be a protected

1:33:42low for now. And it is right. Market

1:33:45opens, pullback, aggressive bullish

1:33:47shift. What do you think I'm expecting?

1:33:49Another bullish day. Right? Open, pull

1:33:51back, higher prices. What do you think

1:33:53I'm expecting? Another bullish day. We

1:33:55do get the bullish day right please

1:33:57understand we do break this high but now

1:33:59what happens now we've wked above this

1:34:01high and closed back inside of this

1:34:03range tomorrow I am expecting a bearish

1:34:06day so we do get the bearish day right

1:34:08price does sell off this is the key

1:34:10thing just because it closed bullish it

1:34:12sells off but now it's sold off it's

1:34:14wicked that low and closed bullish where

1:34:17do you think tomorrow is going to go

1:34:18tomorrow is probably going to be bullish

1:34:20and I'm expecting this high and this

1:34:21high to get taken out again perfect

1:34:23example we pull back Right? And this is

1:34:25Monday the 1st of December now. So we've

1:34:27wicked, it's a bullish candle, but we've

1:34:29wicked above the high. I would be

1:34:30expecting a reversal. Now you come into

1:34:33not into today into the next day, right?

1:34:36Which is yesterday. So yesterday you can

1:34:39see that we had a bullish candle. So

1:34:42we've closed above these highs. What do

1:34:44we also have? We have buy side

1:34:46liquidity. We have equal highs at this

1:34:49high. We have this old high, right? So,

1:34:52what do you think I'm expecting coming

1:34:54into today? Like, as of recording this

1:34:56today, what do you think I'm expecting?

1:34:58I'm expecting price to take out this

1:35:00high. So, now, how did I trade this day?

1:35:01Let's take a look. This is price action

1:35:03right now. This is where we are. When I

1:35:04come into my London session for the day,

1:35:08my read on price for the day is bullish.

1:35:10Notice, guys, we have literally just

1:35:12gone through over a month's worth of

1:35:14price action. 6 weeks of price action

1:35:16just using the understanding of the

1:35:18previous day's candle. and we have been

1:35:20accurate 95% of the time. Like what I'm

1:35:23sharing isn't a joke. In today's price

1:35:25action, I'm expecting higher prices. So

1:35:27again, let's go back into London session

1:35:29where price opens up. This is what price

1:35:31looks like. This is the current daily

1:35:34candle. So we've opened here. We've

1:35:36opened and we're already trading

1:35:38bullish, which is what I'm expecting.

1:35:39But we haven't yet hit this old high

1:35:43right up in here. And we also haven't

1:35:45yet hit these old highs which we just

1:35:47looked at on the daily time frame. And

1:35:49we know that that's going to be our

1:35:51target. So now what I need is step

1:35:53number three which is how do you

1:35:54actually become a buyer on these days?

1:35:57Well, what you do is you wait for a

1:35:58pullback. So you can enter into let's

1:36:00say the 1 minute time frame right inside

1:36:02of your session or the 5minut time frame

1:36:04sorry inside of your session and you

1:36:05wait for a pullback right a manipulation

1:36:08internally and then a confirmation. So

1:36:10you can see we move toward higher. We

1:36:12still haven't taken out those highs yet,

1:36:14right? We still these highs are still

1:36:15intact. That's equal highs. I'm first

1:36:17waiting for a manipulation before I

1:36:20trade long.

1:36:21That manipulation can look like that.

1:36:23Right here it is. We're still expecting

1:36:26higher prices, right? The daily draw in

1:36:28liquidity is still higher. We've

1:36:30manipulated internal prices like this.

1:36:31And now notice we've gone from very

1:36:33bearish to kind of just sitting in this

1:36:35price range. We're just waiting for that

1:36:37confirmation, waiting for price to tell

1:36:39us that we can go higher.

1:36:41That's bearish candle. Okay, that could

1:36:43be a reversal.

1:36:46Okay, that's a manipulation. Boom.

1:36:48That's a bullish candle. So now in here,

1:36:51you can see that we're already getting

1:36:52the reversal, right? We were bearish and

1:36:54now we've shifted bullish. So now I

1:36:57believe that the rest of the day can

1:36:58then continue going bullish. And if we

1:37:00go to the one minute time frame, you

1:37:02will see that price was bearish,

1:37:06right? And now it's bullish. So now I've

1:37:09got my confirmation. The order flow has

1:37:11shifted. Now I can expect the rest of

1:37:13this day to be a bullish day, right?

1:37:16It's that simple. And where's my entry?

1:37:19Usually I'm executing entries on the

1:37:215minut time frame. I'm looking at order

1:37:23blocks, fair value gaps, whatever makes

1:37:25sense, right? My entries are going to be

1:37:27in here on this bearish order block,

1:37:29bullish order block, sorry. My stop loss

1:37:31going to be below the low, right? I can

1:37:32use this inverted candle here. Whatever

1:37:34makes sense. And then I'm just targeting

1:37:36a 1 to5 risk-to-reward. Let's say I

1:37:38have, you know, 400K in one prop firm.

1:37:41I'm risking $4,000 on this one trade.

1:37:43I'm risking $4,000 to make $20,000,

1:37:46right? That's the play of this. That's

1:37:47why you sometimes see me having these

1:37:4930k, 40k days. So, we get tagged into

1:37:52the trade. And now I'm just expecting

1:37:54the momentum of the day, right? The day

1:37:56bias is just going to take me to my

1:37:59takeprofit. And that's it. That's why I

1:38:01wanted to record this video live in this

1:38:02moment. I don't think I think this is

1:38:04some of the most valuable things I've

1:38:05given out on YouTube. That is how we

Supply and Demand

1:38:07execute those trades.

1:38:11If you can master supply and demand,

1:38:13you'll be able to trade alongside smart

1:38:15money. Stop getting caught on the wrong

1:38:17side of the market and take loads of

1:38:20high riskreward trades with high levels

1:38:22of accuracy. [music] In this video, I'm

1:38:24going to reveal to you the five truths

1:38:26about supply and demand that 99% of

1:38:29other traders will never understand and

1:38:31that my students have collectively used

1:38:33to go on and make hundreds of thousands

1:38:36of dollars in verified trading profits.

1:38:38This video will tell you what is supply

1:38:41and demand, how to read institutional

1:38:44order flow, how to accurately draw your

1:38:47supply and demand zones, how to find

1:38:49high probability zones that actually

1:38:51work, and then finally, how to enter and

1:38:54exit trades for large profits. Okay, so

1:38:58first things first, I want to explain to

1:39:00you what is supply and demand and how it

1:39:02actually controls the price of

1:39:04everything. So, in case you didn't know,

1:39:05supply and demand is literally pretty

1:39:07much what controls the price of

1:39:08absolutely everything that you can think

1:39:10of, right? Bar maybe some luxury goods

1:39:12that are based on psychological

1:39:14scarcity. So, let me explain to you

1:39:15supply and demand using this simple

1:39:17chart that we have right here and also

1:39:19how it directly relates to trading. On

1:39:21the left here, we have price. Along the

1:39:23bottom, we have quantity. Every market

1:39:25that you trade, forex, indices, crypto,

1:39:28whatever it may be, lives on this exact

1:39:31relationship. This downward line here,

1:39:34this line here is demand. And demand

1:39:37represents buyers. The higher that price

1:39:39goes, the fewer buyers are willing to

1:39:42buy. And the lower that price goes, the

1:39:45more buyers are willing to step in. This

1:39:48is why demand slopes downwards. This

1:39:51line here represents supply and supply

1:39:55represents sellers. At low prices,

1:39:58sellers aren't interested. At higher

1:40:00prices, sellers are motivated. This is

1:40:04why supply slopes upwards. At this point

1:40:06in the middle, this is what we call fair

1:40:09value. This is the only price where

1:40:11buyers and sellers agree. In trading

1:40:13terms, this is balance. When price goes

1:40:17above fair value, sellers are happy, but

1:40:20buyers aren't. There's too much supply

1:40:23and not enough demand. So, naturally,

1:40:25price wants to move down. When price

1:40:27trades far below fair value, buyers are

1:40:30excited but sellers aren't and therefore

1:40:33there is too much demand and not enough

1:40:35supply and so naturally price wants to

1:40:38move up. And so you can visually

1:40:40represent this like this right let's say

1:40:41we have a price sharp when price gets

1:40:43too far above perceived fair value. So

1:40:46when we go into this exploration phase

1:40:48after a range essentially at this point

1:40:50of time buyers aren't really interested

1:40:52they're not really motivated to keep

1:40:53buying but sellers sellers are very

1:40:56interested and motivated to sell. So

1:40:58because supply outweighs demand price

1:41:00naturally gravitates back to fair value.

1:41:02When we trade below fair value typically

1:41:05what we see is that buyers are

1:41:07ultimately very motivated to buy in here

1:41:10but sellers are less motivated to sell

1:41:12at these levels. And so naturally price

1:41:14will start to gravitate more toward fair

1:41:17value. This is ultimately how a market

1:41:19is created, right? It's what a chart

1:41:21looks like. Behind the candlesticks that

1:41:23you see, there is a story that we are

1:41:24being told about supply and demand and

1:41:26its relation to price. This is literally

1:41:29the entire reason that a market moves.

1:41:31Price does not move randomly. It moves

1:41:34to correct imbalance and pauses at

1:41:36balance. That's again why you see price

1:41:39move in such a way where once it becomes

1:41:41imbalanced price naturally wants to

1:41:43correct back to balance and you know a

1:41:45balanced price range when you see a lot

1:41:48of price ranging around. When you see a

1:41:51range in price usually this means that

1:41:53price is pretty balanced. Sellers and

1:41:55buyers are both pretty happy and this is

1:41:57what we call fair value. The moment that

1:42:00price moves away aggressively like so

1:42:02price becomes imbalanced right? It's

1:42:05above fair value. And if you've ever

1:42:06seen a fair value gap, then essentially

1:42:09this is what we're referring to. A fair

1:42:10value gap is an indication of an

1:42:13imbalanced market. The market is always

1:42:14going from areas of balance to areas of

1:42:17imbalance. And its job is to find new

1:42:20balance at this level or to rebalance at

1:42:23old balanced levels. This is why the

1:42:26market always looks like this. As

1:42:28traders, it's not our job to predict the

1:42:31future. We are simply identifying where

1:42:33supply or demand is likely to overwhelm

1:42:36the other and positioning ourselves

1:42:39around those areas. That is literally

1:42:41it. Every strategy, every indicator and

1:42:43every model that you've ever seen is

1:42:45built on this foundation. If you

1:42:47understand this, you understand markets.

1:42:50And from there, everything else is the

1:42:52smaller details and refinements that

1:42:54allow you to trade profitably

1:42:56consistently. And those are the details

1:42:58we're going to go into right now. So now

1:43:00we're going to be looking at

1:43:01institutional order flow, right? This is

1:43:03how a market actually works behind your

1:43:06candlesticks. So this is what the order

1:43:08book actually looks like. When you see a

1:43:11candlestick going up or a candlestick

1:43:13going down, beneath this candlestick is

1:43:17this, right? Which is what we call the

1:43:19depth of market or the order flow,

1:43:21whatever you want to refer to it as. In

1:43:22the order book, we have the bid, which

1:43:25is the buyers, and we have the ask,

1:43:28which is the sellers. Right? Just think

1:43:29of it as if you are a bidder, you're

1:43:31bidding on something, you're buying that

1:43:33thing, or you're willing to buy that

1:43:35thing. If you're setting an ask price,

1:43:36you're the one that's selling for

1:43:37something, you are asking for this

1:43:39amount for the product that you have.

1:43:41So, you already have the thing. And as a

1:43:43bidder, you don't have the thing. Right?

1:43:44Very simple terms. When someone hits the

1:43:46bid, they are wanting to buy. When

1:43:48someone hits the ask, they are wanting

1:43:49to sell to a bidder. Obviously for a

1:43:51market to work every bid must have an

1:43:54ask and every ask must have a bid.

1:43:56Right? That's how a market works. You

1:43:57cannot have a market where you have only

1:43:59the ask and no bid. So at any one point

1:44:02of time we have two participants in the

1:44:05market. We have the aggressive and we

1:44:07have the passive. Passive liquidity

1:44:11looks like this. So the current price is

1:44:141.5. Let's just say this is the current

1:44:16price. Let's say you were an aggressive

1:44:19buyer and let's say price was 1.5 right

1:44:22now. If you were an aggressive buyer,

1:44:24you would essentially have to go and

1:44:26find the most readily available seller.

1:44:29And so you would have to go and meet a

1:44:31seller of this, which is the ask. So if

1:44:33you were an aggressive bid, you would go

1:44:36and bid on the most recent ask, which in

1:44:39this case, let's say it's 1.6. So let's

1:44:41say we have a passive seller, right, who

1:44:43is sitting at 1.6. And at 1.6, 6. Let's

1:44:47say they have seven lots available. And

1:44:49let's say there's another passive seller

1:44:52at 1.7 who has three lots available,

1:44:56right? So, if you were an aggressive

1:44:58buyer priced at 1.5 and you want to hit

1:45:00the bid for 10 lots, here's what would

1:45:03happen. You would get filled your first

1:45:05seven lots at 1.6, right? And then these

1:45:08seven lots in here become zero. Then

1:45:12your next lot of liquidity which is the

1:45:16three lots that are remaining would get

1:45:18triggered at 1.7 right and then this

1:45:21would get cleared and this would be left

1:45:22at zero. And now the current price would

1:45:25be at 1.7 which is like this right? This

1:45:28is how you see a candle. You have the

1:45:30open of the candle and you have the

1:45:31current high of the candle. Now let's

1:45:33say the bid starts filling back up with

1:45:35more passive buyers. So you was the

1:45:37passive buyer at 1.3. You see that price

1:45:39is increasing. Now, maybe you change

1:45:41your mind. For example, now let's say

1:45:43you're like, "Oh crap, I'm probably not

1:45:45going to get my order filled at this

1:45:46price point. Let me add my passive

1:45:48order. Let's go to 1.5." And so now,

1:45:51let's say you place your order again at

1:45:531.5. You would be now sitting here in

1:45:56the order book. Now, let's say, for

1:45:57example, we get an aggressive seller

1:46:01step into the market at 1.7. And let's

1:46:03say this aggressive seller has 15 lots

1:46:07that it wants to transact. So that

1:46:10seller will transact those 15 lots to

1:46:13the most recent bits, right? The passive

1:46:15liquidity that sits in the bits. And so

1:46:17where would that be? Well, we're at 1.7.

1:46:20Let's say there was zero lots available

1:46:23at 1.7. Price would skip from 1.7 down

1:46:27to 1.6. Let's say there's no liquidity

1:46:30at 1.6. Price would skip back down to

1:46:321.5, right? And then you would see a

1:46:35wick form. Notice that there's a wick, a

1:46:37price. This represents the highest level

1:46:39that price has been at. Now we have that

1:46:40wick form. And so you're available at

1:46:431.5, right, for 10 lots. So now your 10

1:46:47lots get triggered. You get filled at

1:46:49your price that you wanted to get filled

1:46:51at. And price continues going lower to

1:46:53the next available liquidity. Let's say

1:46:54it's at 1.4 and let's say there are five

1:46:57lots available. Price would travel like

1:46:59so down to this 1.4 level. This candle

1:47:03would then become a bearish candle with

1:47:05a wick on the buy side. That's how a

1:47:07candle is formed. Now we're at 1.4,

1:47:09right? Which is where the aggressive

1:47:11seller got their entire position filled

1:47:13at. So they wanted to sell at 1.7

1:47:17and their entire order was filled and

1:47:20the the filling of that order was

1:47:22finished at 1.4, right? Giving them

1:47:25somewhere in the average fill value of

1:47:28around 155, something along those lines.

1:47:31That is essentially what we experience

1:47:32when we get slippage. You get slipped

1:47:35when there isn't the available liquidity

1:47:37for you at your specific point. Right?

1:47:39That's why we experience slippage. And

1:47:41this is how a market is made. That's how

1:47:43a candlestick is formed. That's how a

1:47:46candle goes up and down, up and down.

1:47:48Now, on a lower time frame, let's say

1:47:50for example, this was the daily candle

1:47:54that was forming. On a lower time frame,

1:47:56what's actually happening is price

1:47:58started at 1.5, right? and then it made

1:48:02its way up to 1.7 and then it traded its

1:48:06way back down to 1.4.

1:48:09And so on a daily time frame, you just

1:48:12get this one candle build now. But on a

1:48:14lower time frame, what we're seeing is

1:48:16what we've just gone through on a

1:48:19massive scale. So instead of it just

1:48:21being me and a couple of others bidding,

1:48:23we're talking about thousands, if not

1:48:25millions of different transactions

1:48:27coming in. And so now you can see how

1:48:29this becomes complicated between the

1:48:31supply and demand. And also how we see

1:48:34all of these small little ticks in price

1:48:37every second. That's because what is

1:48:39going on in this very simplified

1:48:41explanation that I've just walked you

1:48:42through is going on on a massive scale

1:48:45deep inside of the order book, right,

1:48:47with millions of market participants.

1:48:49And so that is how a candlestick is

1:48:51formed. And that is also how one

1:48:53candlestick is formed. If you zoom into

1:48:55that candlestick, you will see on the

1:48:56lower time frames, you'll see an entire

1:48:59narrative of price performing with

1:49:01structure and highs and lows and all

1:49:03this sort of stuff. That is how price

1:49:05moves. And all of this is simply the

1:49:09supply and the demand. The supply is the

1:49:12ask and the demand is the bid. And there

1:49:15are two different types. There is

1:49:17aggressive and there is passive. The

1:49:19aggressors attack the ask. If you're an

1:49:22aggressive buyer, you attack the ask.

1:49:23You don't wait for price to come to you.

1:49:25You go to price and you're willing to

1:49:27buy at that price right now. If you're a

1:49:29passive buyer, you're sitting and

1:49:31waiting for price to come to you. And

1:49:33vice versa. If you are an aggressive

1:49:36seller, right, you're attacking the bid.

1:49:38You're going to find the most recent

1:49:40buyer. You're showing up to him and

1:49:42you're presenting your offer to him. If

1:49:44you're a passive seller, you're waiting

1:49:46for the buyer to come and find you. And

1:49:47if they don't find you, no problem. I

1:49:49don't get filled on my position. If they

1:49:51do find me, I do. Right? That is the

1:49:53difference. And the price the aggressive

1:49:55participants have to pay is usually some

1:49:57form of slippage or could be some form

1:49:58of slippage. Okay. So, if all of that

1:50:00was maybe a little bit confusing, hang

1:50:02in there with me because I'm about to

1:50:04simplify it so much more. So, now we're

1:50:06going to walk through how to identify

1:50:08institutional levels of supply and

1:50:09demand in a simple price action chart.

1:50:12So, it's very simple. What we just

1:50:14explained is that price is always going

1:50:17from balance to out of balance. So how

1:50:20to identify supply and demand is very

1:50:23simple. In this instance, we can see

1:50:24that price is trading higher which means

1:50:26that demand is in control. Now all you

1:50:29need to identify a range in price

1:50:31followed by an aggressive expansion.

1:50:33This will give you a demand zone because

1:50:35what we can see here is that this range

1:50:37in price as we've already explained

1:50:40there is a relative equal level of

1:50:45supply and demand at this level. The

1:50:47reason that price is ranging so well is

1:50:49because buyers and sellers are agreeing

1:50:51on price at this level and a lot of

1:50:53transactions are able to take place.

1:50:56This is an area of balance, right? When

1:51:00price is like this, this is usually an

1:51:02area of balance. And then what happens

1:51:04out of nowhere price aggressively runs

1:51:07into one direction completely moving out

1:51:10of balance and into expansion. In this

1:51:13instance, that expansion is bullish. So

1:51:15price is trading higher which simply

1:51:17means there is more demand than there is

1:51:19supply. That is why price is

1:51:21continuously moving higher. Price is

1:51:24going to try to find sellers. Right?

1:51:26There is an abundance of buy liquidity

1:51:29that is available in the market. Price

1:51:31needs to go and balance that buy

1:51:33liquidity with sellside liquidity. And

1:51:36so price is hunting for sellers to fill

1:51:38their orders at. That is why we move out

1:51:40of balance into imbalance. Now what we

1:51:43do is we take the trading range in here

1:51:46that we were gravitating towards. We

1:51:48take the trading range that we were

1:51:49gravitating inside of. This was the

1:51:51previous area of fair balance. This area

1:51:53now becomes a demand zone. Right? Why?

1:51:57Because demand originated from here.

1:52:00This is where the area of demand

1:52:02originated from. And I'll tell you a

1:52:03little something. When you understand

1:52:05institutions, large level players, these

1:52:08are institutions that are trading with

1:52:11so much capital that it's very difficult

1:52:13for them to fill their orders. What I

1:52:15mean by that is we just explained how

1:52:17the market works. So if you was a

1:52:20institution and let's say you had, you

1:52:22know, 10,000 lots that you needed to

1:52:26trade and you had a target for those

1:52:2810,000 lots, you can't just go to the

1:52:30market and dump your 10,000 lots into

1:52:32the market and buy 10,000 lots of your

1:52:34dollar. Why? Because of your 10,000

1:52:36lots, you'll probably get some here,

1:52:38some here, some here, some here, some

1:52:39here, some here, some here, some here.

1:52:41Because it's such a large volume, you

1:52:43will end up taking the market from down

1:52:45here to up here for you to trade this

1:52:4810,000 lots. Because for you to buy

1:52:5010,000 lots, you need to find 10,000

1:52:52lots in supply. And there may not be

1:52:5510,000 lots in supply right here. There

1:52:57may be a,000 here, 1,000 here, 1,000

1:53:00here, 1,000 here, 1,000 here, 1,000

1:53:02here. So if you deploy it all right now,

1:53:03the price is just going to explode

1:53:05because it's just going to keep running

1:53:07up on the ask side to say, "Hey, who's

1:53:09got lots for me?" Essentially, it's

1:53:11going into discovery phase. Who's got

1:53:13the lots for me? I need to fill my

1:53:15trade. And this trader then who's

1:53:17trading these 10,000 lots inside of this

1:53:18institution gets a very bad fill. Let's

1:53:20say they wanted to fill, they have a

1:53:22target. They get into the markets in the

1:53:24morning. They say, "Hey, today my

1:53:26objective is to fill 10,000 lots at one

1:53:29EU, right?$1." And if they just dump all

1:53:32their order in at one, they'll probably

1:53:35get their average order value at let's

1:53:39say for example 1.5. That's a terrible

1:53:42job. So they didn't hit their target of

1:53:44getting filled at one. They got fil.5

1:53:46because they dumped all their liquidity

1:53:47in. Now instead what these institutions

1:53:50will do, they will find an area of

1:53:52balance where price is accepting and

1:53:54what they will do is they will slowly

1:53:57sneak their orders into this area of

1:54:00balance. They'll place a th00and in

1:54:01here, wait a little bit, price finds

1:54:03balance, a th00and in here, price shoots

1:54:05up, it's respected, we find more

1:54:07balance, they'll put a,000 in. And so

1:54:09they load up in these areas. This is the

1:54:12load up phase for a large institution to

1:54:14fill a large order. That's the only way

1:54:16that they're going to get all of their

1:54:18order filled at the price they want it

1:54:20to be filled at. And then once their

1:54:21order is filled at that level, that is

1:54:23when their job is complete. And so in

1:54:26these areas of ranges, this is where you

1:54:29will see institutions build upon price.

1:54:31And then let's say that trader was on

1:54:34the right train, right? Price then

1:54:36extrapolates into this direction. It

1:54:38expands into this bullish direction. Now

1:54:41this area of price holds a level of

1:54:44demand because there is a lot of demand

1:54:47for price at this level, right? As

1:54:49clearly seen. And the fact that price

1:54:51aggressively expands so high insinuates

1:54:55that all of the demand was not filled at

1:54:57the best available price. So let's say

1:54:59in another scenario, this same trader

1:55:01with the same goal of filling 10,000

1:55:04lots at this level, which is what

1:55:06happens most of the time. They get that

1:55:07target and price is in balance and

1:55:10whilst price is inside of this balance

1:55:12maybe he only gets to expend 6,500 lots

1:55:17and then all of a sudden because he was

1:55:19buying so much there wasn't any sell

1:55:21liquidity at this level anymore. Sellers

1:55:23become exhausted. There's no one willing

1:55:25to sell this level anymore and so price

1:55:27goes into search for sellers. That

1:55:29trader is not happy about trying to fill

1:55:32the rest of his order in this price leg.

1:55:34So what he does is he waits and he sets

1:55:37himself as a passive buyer at this same

1:55:39price point for his remaining 3,500

1:55:43lots. What happens? Price goes outside

1:55:45of the balance range. Price usually

1:55:47gravitates back toward the balance

1:55:48range. And when price hits this level,

1:55:51guess who is there waiting? Mr. 10,000

1:55:53lots is still not triggered his whole

1:55:56order. So when price comes back in and

1:55:58sellers are moving through the price,

1:55:59there is just this large 3,500 lot order

1:56:03holding this price until eventually the

1:56:05sellers who were trying to push price

1:56:07lower and sell at these levels get

1:56:09exhausted. Once they get exhausted, the

1:56:12sell side of the order book becomes thin

1:56:14and buyers instinctively just push price

1:56:18higher and that just happens as an

1:56:20automatic process. That is why these

1:56:22demand zones when you find the correct

1:56:24ones they hold and you will know it's an

1:56:26institutional level of supply and demand

1:56:28if you see these large ranges and then

1:56:31massive expansions out of that level.

1:56:33That is how you actually identify an

1:56:35area of institutional supply and demand.

1:56:37Now let me show you this in a real

1:56:39example. Okay, let's take this price

1:56:41chart here. What do we see that has

1:56:44happened right here? I will tell you

1:56:46very simply what we see is that price

1:56:48was in a range of balance

1:56:50in a range of balance and then price

1:56:54boomed up into here moving price out of

1:56:57balance that it's as simple as that we

1:56:59had fair value and we moved out of fair

1:57:02value. Who is dominating in this

1:57:03transaction? Obviously buyers, right?

1:57:06Demand outweighs supply. That's why

1:57:08price has gone and traded higher, right?

1:57:11So then this level in here would be your

1:57:16demand level, right? And this is how I

1:57:19would draw it. This in here would be

1:57:21your area of demand. And so you can draw

1:57:25this across here. And notice that price

1:57:27goes from searching, failing to find new

1:57:31accepted balance, and it comes back into

1:57:35this area of demand. And then what

1:57:38happens at this level? Here is our

1:57:40demand. Here is our expansion out. Price

1:57:42comes back to this level, right? Sellers

1:57:45are trying to attack this level. Failure

1:57:47to do so. And then price has the

1:57:49continuation expansion from this area of

1:57:52price. This area of price is very

1:57:55clearly and obviously an institutional

1:57:58area of demand. Okay. Now, what I'm

1:58:00going to show you is how to identify

1:58:03high probability supply and demand.

1:58:06Simply put, supply and demand zones are

1:58:09everywhere in the market. How can we

1:58:10truly understand which ones have a

1:58:13higher chance of working than others?

1:58:15And the way that I have found through

1:58:17years of the data that I have gathered

1:58:19on this specific concept, I found one

1:58:21thing stands out above all else about

1:58:24how to truly understand whether a supply

1:58:26and demand zone will actually work and

1:58:28that is structure. Institutional order

1:58:32flow, right? The actual market structure

1:58:34of price. And so notice in this price

1:58:37level here, what do we have? Price

1:58:39starts up here, right? Price comes down.

1:58:43We have a low. There's a low in price.

1:58:46Price puts in a lower high. This high is

1:58:49lower than the previous high. That's

1:58:51already a bearish indication. Price then

1:58:53puts in a lower low. This low is lower

1:58:56than the previous low. At this point in

1:58:58time, it is very clear and obvious that

1:59:00price is bearish. So, the overall flow

1:59:02of orders are bearish. So, we have a

1:59:04lower low. Price comes in again. Price

1:59:06puts in a lower high. or in fact price

1:59:08doesn't put in a lower high, price

1:59:10liquidates the high. That's an even

1:59:12clearer sign for me. When price takes

1:59:14out an old high, but with a wick and we

1:59:18then close down here, that to me is a

1:59:21massive indication of market reversal.

1:59:23So we have bearish trend plus a market

1:59:25reversal indication and then we have

1:59:28another take of the low. So when I'm

1:59:30coming into the market each day, I want

1:59:31to understand just a simple current

1:59:34trend. So we have a swing high and we

1:59:36have a swing low down here. Now I find

1:59:38that the best way to do things, right?

1:59:40Let's say I play price out like this.

1:59:42What you'll notice here, there is both a

1:59:44demand zone and a supply zone, right?

1:59:46Very clearly. How do I know that? Well,

1:59:48you can see that price was in a very

1:59:51tight range in here and then had a very

1:59:53aggressive sell-off. So this is going to

1:59:55be our supply zone. You can just take a

1:59:57low to a high inside that range and pull

2:00:00that across. That's going to be your

2:00:01supply zone. Then at the bottom of this

2:00:03supply zone, price finds another range.

2:00:06We'll take the low to the high of the

2:00:07range and then we have aggressive buy

2:00:10out of that level. So we have demand in

2:00:12here and we have supply in here. And so

2:00:15let's say the supply trader has their

2:00:18levels in here and they want to take out

2:00:21this low. And let's say the demand

2:00:23trader has their levels in here and

2:00:25wants to take out the sellers. Right?

2:00:28This person's betting on demand. This

2:00:30person is betting on supply. Now the

2:00:33higher probability of who is going to

2:00:35win this battle is the one who is

2:00:37trading with the trend. Right? Very

2:00:39simply put. So the trend here is

2:00:41bearish. So therefore the higher

2:00:43probability is that the supply level is

2:00:45the one that holds and the demand level

2:00:48is the one that gets traded through. Now

2:00:50this demand might hold momentarily

2:00:53but eventually

2:00:56this demand zone will lose and that's

2:00:58what we see happen in this example.

2:01:04We see that the supply zone is reached

2:01:14on multiple occasions. This supply zone

2:01:16gets reached. We reach in, buyers try to

2:01:20attack it again and both of the times

2:01:23they fail. Now we find ourselves

2:01:24approaching this demand level. Demand

2:01:27reacts and immediately trade straight

2:01:30through it. And so if we remove both of

2:01:32these, we will see that the supply

2:01:35that's in alignment with the trend will

2:01:37always outweigh the demand that is

2:01:39against the trend. Here's another

2:01:41example that happens shortly after. What

2:01:43we can see here is that price is very

2:01:45clearly bullish, right? We have a break

2:01:48of structure

2:01:49across here. And so we have our swing

2:01:53low and our swing high. Notice that

2:01:56price in general in this area is in

2:01:58pretty much a balanced price range. At

2:02:00some point in time, price becomes out of

2:02:04balance, right? We've gone from the

2:02:06range of this level to out of this

2:02:09level. What we'll notice is that there's

2:02:12this massive range and the expansion.

2:02:14And so you can literally take right

2:02:16whatever of this range you would like to

2:02:18take. You can take this entire level if

2:02:20you would like to. This is going to be

2:02:22your demand zone. And again very clearly

2:02:24if you're a buyer of this demand zone

2:02:27and simply just taking out the highs

2:02:28again obviously I do not trade with a

2:02:301:1 risk-to-reward ratio. It's just the

2:02:32purpose of showing you. You'll notice

2:02:34that price comes straight into our

2:02:36demand zone and then straight out of the

2:02:38demand zone. Notice that again even this

2:02:40in of itself right price has had this

2:02:42long range for a while and now it's

2:02:44expanded out above this highs. Even this

2:02:46entire zone in general this is an

2:02:48institutional level of demand. And so

2:02:51it's expected that this level will

2:02:53probably hold itself and continue

2:02:56trading higher from this specific level.

2:03:06Right? And that's ultimately what

2:03:08happens because this entire level in

2:03:10here really acts as a demand range that

2:03:13builds up, we expand out, we come back

2:03:15in, we build up, we expand out. Okay.

2:03:18Now, we'll put everything together and

2:03:20walk through how we will actually enter

2:03:22and exit using everything that we have

2:03:25just learned here in this video. So,

2:03:26before we actually even identify supply

2:03:28and demand, as we explained, how to

2:03:30identify high probability supply and

2:03:33demand is based actually on the market

2:03:35structure. So the first thing that you

2:03:37must do when you come into the market is

2:03:39identify your current trend. And so I

2:03:41like to use the 15-minute time frame on

2:03:43Euro US dollar. And so what we can see

2:03:44is that price was actually very bullish.

2:03:46Right? We see that price puts in a high,

2:03:48a low, higher high, higher lows. Right?

2:03:51It's putting in consistently higher

2:03:52prices until eventually we have a high

2:03:54in here that puts in a low down here

2:03:56that puts in a new high up here. Right?

2:03:59So this is a bullish break of structure.

2:04:01At this point, price was very bullish

2:04:02and then price breaks those lows down

2:04:05here and we actually shift bearish. So,

2:04:08we were bullish and now we're actually

2:04:10bearish. The high in here and the low

2:04:12down here. So, first things first, we

2:04:15take out this and we're going to put our

2:04:16low in here and our high in here. Now,

2:04:18to me, nothing matters other than me

2:04:22being a seller of this market. And how I

2:04:25want to do that is first identify the

2:04:27trend, which we've just done. Second,

2:04:28then identify the area of supply. And

2:04:31for me, in this instance, the supply is

2:04:33obvious, right? What do we have? We have

2:04:35a very rangebound price before

2:04:37aggressive expansion. So, we have

2:04:39everything we just looked for, a range,

2:04:41and then expansion. So, inside of our

2:04:43range is our institutional area of

2:04:45supply. But I'm not going to just try to

2:04:48take this level, right? Cuz I would be

2:04:49basically trading this, my stop loss

2:04:51here, and my execution up in here,

2:04:54right? That's not really what I'm

2:04:56looking for. 1 to 1.57 risk-to-reward.

2:04:58That's not what I want. I don't want to

2:04:59risk $1,000 to make $1,570.

2:05:02No way. So, what I do is I mark out

2:05:05these zones like this, right? I will

2:05:07just mark out this as a supply zone,

2:05:10right? Very easy area of supply and I

2:05:13will just wait for price to get into

2:05:15that zone. So, here you can see that

2:05:16price gets into my zone. And instead of

2:05:18just trading from this level, right,

2:05:20which is what we just looked at, instead

2:05:22of just taking this trade, which is very

2:05:23lowrisisk reward, what I will do is I

2:05:26will wait for confirmation. And so I

2:05:28will go to a 1 minute time frame and

2:05:30I'll look at the market structure on the

2:05:31one minute time frame. Notice that as

2:05:33price makes its way up to this gray box,

2:05:35which is our supply. Notice that the one

2:05:37minute time frame is very bullish,

2:05:40right? And so what I wait for is I wait

2:05:42for a shift. I wait for price to tell me

2:05:45that this area of price is confirmed.

2:05:47And so price is bullish, right? And then

2:05:50eventually when price shifts, that would

2:05:53be my confirmation. And at this point,

2:05:56that's when I can be a confirmed seller

2:05:58of price. And so now I need to find my

2:06:01level. And my level is very simple. I'll

2:06:03go to a 5m minute time frame and I will

2:06:05just use this specific order block,

2:06:08right?

2:06:10This final buy to sell because this is

2:06:13the area that everything changed. This

2:06:15is the area that price went from demand

2:06:18in control to supply in control. And I

2:06:22want to find the last level of demand

2:06:25that was in control and where the supply

2:06:28came in. And that's what I want to use.

2:06:30I want to use this level as my entry

2:06:32point, right? And so that becomes my

2:06:34entry just like this. And I'm pretty

2:06:38sure, yeah, price doesn't even hit it.

2:06:43So I wouldn't even got to the trade. And

2:06:45so this tells me that the order flow has

2:06:47shifted because remember the order book

2:06:49that we showed earlier. What we're

2:06:51seeing here is that demand is

2:06:52consistently taking control, right?

2:06:54Price is just going higher and higher

2:06:56and higher in the order book until

2:06:59sellers take control, right? Which is

2:07:02this high here. And then all I need to

2:07:04really do is just find the area. You can

2:07:06literally just use the entire range. I

2:07:09can take the low to the high of this

2:07:12level like this. draw this across and I

2:07:13can use that as my entry point. That can

2:07:15be my entry, right? There's no problem.

2:07:17That's a five pip stop loss. And so now

2:07:18notice the difference. Nothing changes.

2:07:20I'm taking the same target, right? And

2:07:23pretty much all of my trades are 1 to5

2:07:25riskreward. And so nothing's changed.

2:07:27It's the exact same idea, right? We are

2:07:29bearish. This is our area of supply, but

2:07:32instead of taking this trade where I

2:07:34would just open the trade here and put

2:07:35my stop loss up here and take out this

2:07:37low for a one, I'm waiting for

2:07:40confirmation. So, this makes my supply

2:07:42and demand even higher probability

2:07:44because I'm not just taking it. I'm

2:07:46waiting for price to come in and clearly

2:07:48reject this level. You can see we come

2:07:50in bullish and now we're shifting

2:07:53bearish. You can see the clear

2:07:54rejection. Once we get the clear

2:07:56rejection, then I take my entry and I

2:07:58just do the same thing that I would in

2:08:00this one, but instead of getting in

2:08:02here, stops here, I get in here and

2:08:04stops here. It's a much more refined

2:08:06area of price. And we can see how that

2:08:08plays out by looking at the 5m minute

2:08:10time frame.

2:08:12It's a beautiful entry in price starts

2:08:15moving away.

2:08:19Even in here as well, notice what's

2:08:21happening, right? This supply and demand

2:08:23is existing everywhere. Price sells off.

2:08:25Price finds a new level of acceptance,

2:08:28right? Price ranges and then expands.

2:08:30Every time frame this is occurring. What

2:08:32happens? Price expands out. Price comes

2:08:34back into this supply and price starts

2:08:36moving away once again

2:08:46and eventually we run through and this

2:08:48supply zone holds the entire time and

2:08:50that would be your trade idea complete.

Order Block

2:08:56Order block is essentially an area of

2:08:59price where there are large resting

2:09:01orders waiting to be triggered. And so

2:09:05when you see price trade into these

2:09:08areas into these order blocks, you will

2:09:11be expecting to have some reaction out

2:09:14of that order block. Now the key is in

2:09:16selecting the correct order blocks.

2:09:19Okay. So how do we actually identify an

2:09:23order block? Here's what you want to be

2:09:26looking for. Essentially, you want to

2:09:28find number one, the first thing is

2:09:30where do you see a large amount of

2:09:33volume kick into the market?

2:09:36Essentially, that can be identified as a

2:09:38very aggressive candle either in one

2:09:40direction or the other. So, for this

2:09:42example of identifying a bullish order

2:09:44block, we can see that we have this

2:09:47aggressive bullish candle that moves to

2:09:50the upside. From there on out, what you

2:09:52want to be identifying is this final

2:09:56candle just before that impulsive move,

2:09:58right? We call this the sell to buy

2:10:01candle. [snorts] This is what is going

2:10:03to be characterized as your order block.

2:10:06It's essentially the area of price that

2:10:08first sells into the buy and then we

2:10:11have the aggressive move out of it. Now,

2:10:15to identify this, your order block

2:10:17should always have a fair value gap.

2:10:20ultimately an area of imbalance. What we

2:10:22can see here is this first candle right

2:10:25here followed by the second impulsive

2:10:28bullish candle right here and then we

2:10:31have one more bearish candle. Now the

2:10:34key here is to notice that the first

2:10:36candle that wick the highest wick of the

2:10:40first candle right in here does not meet

2:10:43with the third wick. Right? So we have

2:10:46one candle, two candles, three candles.

2:10:48this wick does not meet this wick and

2:10:50that leaves a gap, right? A fair value

2:10:53gap. If you can notice a fair value gap,

2:10:55then the likelihood is there is an order

2:10:57block somewhere around that level. And

2:11:00how you identify that is you just want

2:11:02to use the final down candle before that

2:11:06up candle in a bullish order block

2:11:09scenario. Or what you can do is if you

2:11:12want to identify a bearish order block,

2:11:14essentially what you want to be looking

2:11:15for is the final buy before you have the

2:11:18aggressive sell candle. But remember the

2:11:21candles of the first and third must not

2:11:24meet. [music] In this scenario right

2:11:26here, you can see very clearly that this

2:11:29first candle and this candle right here,

2:11:31they both touch each other. Therefore,

2:11:33that does not give you a fair value gap.

2:11:36Therefore, that does not give you a

2:11:38bearish order block. So, if we can just

2:11:40continue playing price out, what you

2:11:43will notice is

2:11:47we have a buy candle in here, right? And

2:11:51then we have a sell candle, then we have

2:11:54another sell candle, and then we have a

2:11:55third sell candle. Now, again, we want

2:11:57to be identifying this candle right here

2:12:00and this candle [music] right here. That

2:12:03is essentially your fair value gap. And

2:12:05wherever there is a fair value gap,

2:12:07there is going to be an order block in

2:12:09there somewhere. And so how we want to

2:12:11identify that is just looking at the

2:12:13final buy to sell candle that forms just

2:12:17before that aggressive momentum. And

2:12:19what you can do is you can use the

2:12:21bottom wick of this and the top wick of

2:12:25this and that will create your bearish

2:12:28order block. Okay. So, here are my three

2:12:31rules that I go to when I'm trying to

2:12:34mark out high probability order blocks.

2:12:38So, rule number one, and arguably the

2:12:41most important rule, is you must be

2:12:44prot. Time and time again, traders are

2:12:46trying to trade bearish order blocks

2:12:48when the order flow is bullish. It makes

2:12:51no sense. So, make sure that you have

2:12:53this external swing structure aligned

2:12:57like this. And you can see that price

2:12:59makes low high higher low meaning this

2:13:03low here is higher than the previous low

2:13:06and then we have a higher high. So at

2:13:08that point it's already indicated that

2:13:10price is bullish. We have this bullish

2:13:12breakup structure like so. And then

2:13:14price is going to respect this area in

2:13:17here and I can guarantee you there is

2:13:19some type of order block inside of here

2:13:22that price then is able to react from.

2:13:25So that is number one. Make sure you are

2:13:29protrend.

2:13:31Number two is you want to wait for some

2:13:33sort of run on liquidity from that sell

2:13:37to buy level. So what we can see here is

2:13:39we have this bullish structure and then

2:13:41as price pulls back you can see it puts

2:13:43these internal lows in. Now notice that

2:13:46this final sell right here, this final

2:13:50sell to buy actually causes a run on

2:13:54liquidity. So we actually run on the

2:13:57lows in here, right? So we have a

2:13:59liquidation in here. So you want to see

2:14:01a run on some sort of liquidity before

2:14:04that order block is formed. And then

2:14:06don't forget, make sure that this order

2:14:08block, this sell to buy has a fair value

2:14:11gap from candle one to candle 3. There's

2:14:14your fair value gap. Great. Now you know

2:14:17how to identify your order block. Now

2:14:20final one and my golden rule number

2:14:23three is make sure that that order block

2:14:26was something that led to a break of

2:14:29structure. That order block itself

2:14:31doesn't have to break structure but

2:14:33there has to be a break of structure in

2:14:35that price leg. For example, what we see

2:14:37right here is now we are bullish, right?

2:14:39We have our swing low down here and we

2:14:42have our swing high up in this region.

2:14:45So, as long as we stay inside of that

2:14:48price leg, this order block is valid.

2:14:51But if we do something like this, for

2:14:52example, let's say we now pulled back

2:14:55like this and then we went and did

2:14:57higher high and we had a new break of

2:14:59structure. Well, this order blocker

2:15:02becomes valid. What we'd actually be

2:15:04then looking at is probably some sort of

2:15:07sell to buy

2:15:09inside of this price leg in here that

2:15:11leads to a breakout structure. So make

2:15:14sure that the break of structure has a

2:15:17order block inside of. Make sure the

2:15:19order block you're looking for has a

2:15:21breakup structure inside of it. So from

2:15:24there, that is the three rules on how to

2:15:26identify the order block. And if you

2:15:27have something like this where you have

2:15:28a protrend move, right? We have higher

2:15:30highs, higher lows, higher highs. Price

2:15:32pulls back, gives a run on liquidity,

2:15:35this bearish sell to then buy, gives the

2:15:37engulfing candle and then break some

2:15:40sort of structure. that is a high

2:15:42probability area for price to then be

2:15:44able to come back to something like this

2:15:46before putting in some sort of high

2:15:49high. And this is exactly where you

2:15:52would trade from. So let's take a look

2:15:54at what this order block scenario looks

2:15:57like in the markets themselves. Here we

2:16:00are and what we can see right here is

2:16:03that price is bullish. So step number

2:16:06one is where is your directional bias?

2:16:08You can see we had this low in here,

2:16:10puts in a high. Price pulls back, right?

2:16:14Respects what? Respects the previous

2:16:17bullish order block that we were talking

2:16:19about. And then what does price do?

2:16:21Price then has this aggressive move out

2:16:24of this price range. Breaks structure,

2:16:27right? We have a break of structure to

2:16:28the upside like this. So there we have

2:16:32our protrend. We're trading with the

2:16:34trend. We have our breaker structure

2:16:36that was come from this bullish order

2:16:39block in here. And then finally, what

2:16:40else do we have? We have our run on

2:16:43liquidity. Right? You can very clearly

2:16:45see that we have a old low in here. Then

2:16:48we have this final sell into this

2:16:50liquidity, relative equal lows, sell

2:16:53into liquidity, and then aggressive buy

2:16:55out. So, we've ticked all three boxes.

2:16:57We're protrend, right? We're clearly in

2:16:59a bullish trend. We have taken a run on

2:17:03liquidity and then we've broken

2:17:05structure. So that means that our order

2:17:07block is inside of the structural price

2:17:10leg that we're currently trading inside

2:17:12of our current trading range. Then what

2:17:14you can do is you can map out your area

2:17:17of order block, your bullish order

2:17:19block, and then you can just wait and

2:17:20see how price reacts.

2:17:22So you can see price has a reaction, a

2:17:25bullish reaction, drops down deeper to

2:17:27mitigate and then begins aggressively

2:17:30advancing out of that level and takes

2:17:33out the continuation. Right? Another

2:17:35break of structure just continuing in

2:17:37the overall trend that price is

2:17:39currently trading in. Now we're going to

2:17:41take everything that we've just learned

2:17:42about the basics of order blocks and

2:17:44we're going to apply that into my

2:17:46step-by-step profitable order block

2:17:48trading strategy. I'm going to give you

2:17:50exact rundown of a trade that I took

2:17:52using the exact strategy that I'm going

2:17:54to be sharing with you. Okay. So now

2:17:56let's walk through this trade on Euro US

2:18:00dollar during London session. So first

2:18:02thing I'm going to do is I'm going to

2:18:03switch on my session indicator. This

2:18:06allows me to outline the exact sessions.

2:18:08So you know that this is during the

2:18:11London session. Now step number one is

2:18:14we need to identify what is the trend

2:18:17direction. And so you can very clearly

2:18:19see that price was aggressively bearish.

2:18:21We put in a lower low, a lower high, a

2:18:24lower low, giving us a break of

2:18:27structure to the downside, followed then

2:18:31by a change of character. So you can see

2:18:33we've changed the trend here. We were

2:18:35indeed bearish, putting in a series of

2:18:37lower lows, and then we've put in a

2:18:39higher high, meaning this high that

2:18:41we've just placed in here is higher than

2:18:42the previous high. Therefore, we have

2:18:44now shifted bullish. So, we no longer

2:18:47want to be looking at any bearish order

2:18:49blocks or anything of that nature. We

2:18:50want to be paying attention to the

2:18:52present moment trend, right? So, we want

2:18:55to make sure that we are trading inside

2:18:57of this trading range. So, our bias is

2:19:00indeed bullish. We are looking to take

2:19:02long positions. Now, step number two is

2:19:05I need to find an order block that makes

2:19:07sense to trade from, right? And this is

2:19:10going to be my point of interest, my

2:19:12higher time frame point of interest.

2:19:14Right? So what we want to be looking at

2:19:15is this particular session in here. This

2:19:18is Asia in this blue box from here is

2:19:20from 8 till midnight EST. This

2:19:24represents the Asia session range. Now

2:19:27as you guys know the highs and the lows

2:19:30of this Asia session range are extremely

2:19:32liquid. [music]

2:19:33So what we want to see is coming into

2:19:36our London session we want to have a

2:19:37clear directional bias which I have. I

2:19:40am bullish. I want to have a clear point

2:19:43of interest below Asia session low. If

2:19:47I'm buying, I want to be buying below

2:19:49that Asia session low. Right? So, where

2:19:52in here can you see that we have a clear

2:19:57area of order block? Well, you can see

2:19:59very clearly in here, right? This final

2:20:02sell to buy candle that has a fair value

2:20:05gap. You can see the first candle in

2:20:07here does not meet with the third candle

2:20:09in here. That is our clear and obvious

2:20:11fair value gap. You can see that it runs

2:20:13an area of liquidity, right? So the

2:20:15final cell runs the previous candle's

2:20:18low which is a run of liquidity and then

2:20:22we have this aggressive push out. It's

2:20:24inside of the area. It's inside of the

2:20:28protrend move, right? We've already had

2:20:30our breakout structure. This order block

2:20:32is inside of that breaker structure

2:20:34price leg. And what we want to see is

2:20:37price all back liquidate Asia low drop

2:20:41into here and then when I get into this

2:20:44area I don't want to just take a risk

2:20:47entry on here right and besides even if

2:20:49I was to take an entry on here and

2:20:51target our target which is our Asia

2:20:54session high that's going to give me 3.3

2:20:57riskreward which might seem decent to a

2:20:59lot of you guys but some of you who know

2:21:01and have been around here for a long

2:21:02time you know that my minimum risk to

2:21:05reward is 125 right so what I want to do

2:21:09is I want to get into this area then I

2:21:11want to drop down to the 1 minute time

2:21:13frame and then I want to take my entry

2:21:15there so let's see how that plays out

2:21:18first thing is waiting for price to get

2:21:20into this area and there is the

2:21:22objective complete right we have equal

2:21:24lows in here we have Asia low in here

2:21:26which is a prime area for a sweep of

2:21:29liquidity we've now run the liquidity we

2:21:32have our point of interest we are

2:21:33protrend looking for buys. Time for our

2:21:36entry confirmation. So, what we're going

2:21:38to do is we're going to drop down to the

2:21:411 minute time frame. And now we need to

2:21:43establish what is our directional trend

2:21:46at the moment. So, you can quite clearly

2:21:48see that we are bearish, right? We're in

2:21:50this heavy downtrend. And we can see

2:21:52that this was our swing low. Price

2:21:54pulled up, swing high, then we went

2:21:56lower low, right? Lower low, lower high.

2:22:00And what you can just notice price has

2:22:03just what? Run on liquidity. This low,

2:22:07this low that was supporting this

2:22:09bullish move up has now been liquidated.

2:22:12So what we would need to see is a

2:22:13realignment, a market structure shift

2:22:15above this high, displacing this high.

2:22:19And then that would be our confirmation

2:22:21that the one minute time frame is now

2:22:23ready to go in the same direction as

2:22:26that 30 minute time frame. So if we just

2:22:28play price out,

2:22:31there is your displacement, right?

2:22:33There's your market structure shift and

2:22:34your displacement. Price is putting in a

2:22:36series of lower lows, lower highs,

2:22:37liquidation of the low, run of the high,

2:22:40giving us a realignment, displacing

2:22:43above the previous high. And now what do

2:22:46we want to see? We want to see an area

2:22:49of demand. We want to see bullish order

2:22:52block. So what do we need to see? Well,

2:22:54we need to see this move right here.

2:22:56this sell to buy that breaks structure

2:23:00that's coming from our higher time frame

2:23:02point of interest that has taken an area

2:23:04of liquidity. Right? Any low or any

2:23:07higher an opposite example is a run of

2:23:09liquidity. But not only is this a run of

2:23:11liquidity, this down here is also a key

2:23:15run on liquidity. So we had a run on

2:23:17liquidity here. Price pushes up, reacts

2:23:20to this bearish order block, pushes

2:23:22down, and then buyers outweigh the

2:23:25market, giving us a sell that liquidates

2:23:27price and then break structure to the

2:23:30upside. Now, we just want to look at

2:23:32this as our bullish order block. You can

2:23:35see it has a fair value gap. Candle one,

2:23:38candle three doesn't meet, we have a

2:23:40fair value gap. That is where we want to

2:23:42look at taking our position from. want

2:23:45to put our stop loss below this low in

2:23:47here. And I know what you're thinking.

2:23:49That is a pretty tight stop loss. And it

2:23:52is. So, let's continue and see where are

2:23:55we going to take this trade to. Well, we

2:23:58want to always be trading in alignment

2:24:01with the trend. So, if we know that

2:24:03we're bullish, we want to just take

2:24:05price to the next logical high that

2:24:08makes sense. So, we want to go for a

2:24:09minimum of 1 to five, right? So, there's

2:24:11our 1 to5. There is our displacement.

2:24:14Now it's time to enter. And this is

2:24:16where we're going to be entering from.

2:24:18So price continues trading continues

2:24:21trading higher. Price ranges.

2:24:24Okay, price is now at this point

2:24:26creating what? Creating a range. What do

2:24:29we understand about ranges in price? A

2:24:31range in price is creating liquidity on

2:24:33both sides of the market. So when you

2:24:35see a range occur like this, that is

2:24:39ultimately building liquidity on the buy

2:24:41side and on the sell side. And what

2:24:43you'll see a lot of times happen is

2:24:45you'll see a run first on the buy side

2:24:47liquidity inducing all of these buyers.

2:24:50Everybody is now looking to buy because

2:24:52everybody's perceiving this as a

2:24:54breakout and then price runs the actual

2:24:57liquidity that it wants to run and then

2:24:59goes into it the direction that it

2:25:02really wants to trade into. So pay

2:25:04attention for that schematic right

2:25:06there. When we break this down, right,

2:25:08what do we see? We have equal highs

2:25:10across here. Okay,

2:25:13price runs the equal highs. What do we

2:25:16have across here? We have relatively

2:25:18equal lows.

2:25:20So price has now run the buy side of the

2:25:22liquidity. Okay, now it's created what?

2:25:26More equal lows across here. Stacked

2:25:29lows, equal lows here, lows here. again

2:25:32running by side liquidity. So this trade

2:25:35becomes invalid if we break this high.

2:25:38If we hit the takerit before we have

2:25:42been tagged in obviously this trade then

2:25:44becomes obsolete. There's no need to

2:25:46take it anymore. However, if it doesn't

2:25:48then we still trade it as is. So there

2:25:52you can see there is the aggressive

2:25:55liquidation of this low. And here

2:25:57there's your liquidation. So at this

2:25:59point price may or may not tag you in

2:26:02again just keeping the order open.

2:26:05So price does tag in. And if for

2:26:07whatever reason you would have removed

2:26:09your order then you can pay attention to

2:26:11the details by reconfirming this area of

2:26:14price. Because what do we notice in

2:26:16here? Well, you can see as price pushes

2:26:19up right and then break structure these

2:26:22tiny little swing points are dictating

2:26:25the order flow. And so you can see that

2:26:27price is printing this lower internal

2:26:31trend

2:26:33right even again you can see it's

2:26:36printing this lower internal trend we

2:26:38have low high lower low high lower low

2:26:43high liquidation

2:26:46and then what do we have? It's the exact

2:26:49same thing over and over and over again.

2:26:51Right? So we have had no breaker

2:26:53structure yet. So we would need to see

2:26:55some sort of breakout structure.

2:26:58But there when you have your breakout

2:26:59structure, what do you now have? Right?

2:27:02Again, price I'm going to zoom in to pay

2:27:05attention to detail. Right? Again, these

2:27:08are the little details that people

2:27:10overlook. What do we see? We see that

2:27:12price is printing lower lows, lower

2:27:15highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower

2:27:17lows. Liquidation,

2:27:20higher high. Right? There is our order

2:27:24block, a bullish order block that breaks

2:27:27structure number one. It breaks

2:27:30structure. It liquidates and it's

2:27:33aligned with the overall trend. So if

2:27:36for whatever reason you wasn't able to

2:27:37capitalize on the original move, you can

2:27:40put another position in. I would cover

2:27:42the same stop, right? So stops on this

2:27:45same low in here just in case it does

2:27:47want to come a little bit deeper. And

2:27:49then where do you target? You're just

2:27:51looking at the exact same area because

2:27:53the bias is to take price into this

2:27:55area. That's a 1 to 6.85 then keep

2:27:59playing price out. So price aggressively

2:28:01moves out of this level and then

2:28:03eventually price runs to full take

2:28:05profit with two potential profitable

2:28:08positions. One for one to five

2:28:09risk-to-reward and one to 6.85

2:28:12risktoreward.

Double your Risk Reward

2:28:16The first winning order block is what I

2:28:19call the sweep shift. It's very very

2:28:21simple to understand. Essentially,

2:28:23imagine you have price action that's

2:28:24trending in an upward direction. So, we

2:28:26have a swing low down here, swing high,

2:28:29swing low, higher high, higher low,

2:28:33higher high. So, we're bullish. And then

2:28:35we change character. We shift from

2:28:37bullish to bearish. Well, in this

2:28:40process, what you want to look for is

2:28:42the area of price where we sweep this

2:28:45old high here and then aggressively

2:28:48shift below this low down here. If you

2:28:51can find an order block at the high of

2:28:53this price leg, that is a high quality

2:28:55order block. From there, you can

2:28:57essentially expect price to have some

2:28:58kind of retracement into your order

2:29:00block. And there's a likelihood that

2:29:03this order block will hold and you can

2:29:04trade from this order block and

2:29:06essentially just target the next weak

2:29:09swing low. So as you can see we have a

2:29:11swing high up here. We put in a low and

2:29:13then we put in a new higher high. Now

2:29:15we're coming for a pullback, right? It's

2:29:17over three candles. So it meets my

2:29:18criteria. Then you can see we break this

2:29:20high. So my current swing structure,

2:29:23this is my swing low and we are still

2:29:25bullish, right? Note that this is Asia

2:29:28session high. So it's a highly liquid

2:29:30area of price. Then what we can see is

2:29:32that we aggressively break below this

2:29:35low. So what we have is a break of

2:29:37structure on the buy side followed by a

2:29:40bearish change of character on the sell

2:29:43side. Then as you can see you want to

2:29:45identify the last area that caused the

2:29:48sweep and the shift. And in this

2:29:50instance is this final buy candle before

2:29:52the sell-off. This right here would be

2:29:55my order block of choice and an order

2:29:57block that I have consistently seen to

2:29:59work. And then essentially you can

2:30:01literally just place your entry off this

2:30:03order block level and all you have to do

2:30:05is just target the next swing low. And

2:30:09this has a very high success rate. Now

2:30:12let's break down winning order block

2:30:14number two. And this is what I call the

2:30:16continuation trap. Very simple model.

2:30:18Again what you can see here is we have

2:30:20bearish price delivery. So we have a

2:30:22high, we have a low, a lower high, and a

2:30:24lower low. And then we shift bullish. So

2:30:26now at this point in time, my swing low

2:30:29is down here. And my swing high is up

2:30:31here. But what you can see is as price

2:30:33starts to pull back into this area, we

2:30:35have some bearish internal structure,

2:30:38right? Internal low, internal lower

2:30:40high, lower low, lower high, and then

2:30:43lower low. At some point in time, if

2:30:45price is expected to trade above the

2:30:47high up here, which it is, then we need

2:30:50to wait for an internal change of

2:30:52character. That's the shift from bearish

2:30:53internal to bullish internal. When you

2:30:57get that, now what you need to see is a

2:30:59buildup of liquidity, right? Preferably

2:31:01some kind of Asia session, which you

2:31:03have seen by now I use a lot. If we have

2:31:05some formation of liquidity at an Asia

2:31:07session low and the order block that

2:31:09broke structure toward the buy side is

2:31:11below that level, it's a very very good

2:31:14order block to trade from. Same thing

2:31:15again, you can just place your entry in

2:31:17here and you can literally target the

2:31:19next swing high in structure. And so

2:31:22here we're able to break down what that

2:31:24looks like. Again, remember where we've

2:31:25just came from, we were bearish, right?

2:31:27We're putting in lower lows, lower

2:31:28highs, lower lows. And then eventually,

2:31:30as you can see, we shifted to become

2:31:33bullish, right? Right. So, we have a

2:31:34swing low that is down here and we have

2:31:36a swing high that is up here. So, as of

2:31:39right now, we're bullish. However, what

2:31:41happens is when price puts in this new

2:31:43high, we have a low, lower high, lower

2:31:47low. So, we're internally bearish until

2:31:50eventually we shift this high internally

2:31:53and we break that structure. From here,

2:31:55what we can expect is that this high now

2:31:58is going to be traded through. And

2:32:00again, we can see that if this was our

2:32:03swing low and this was our swing high,

2:32:05where's the order block that caused this

2:32:07change of character, that is very simply

2:32:10this final cell

2:32:13to buy in this area. And guess what? It

2:32:16is also just below this Asia session

2:32:20low, which is a massive piece of

2:32:22liquidity. And it's the same thing

2:32:23again. You can literally just place your

2:32:25long position in here, put your stops

2:32:28below this level, and then you can

2:32:29target straight away this old swing

2:32:32high. And again, this is something that

2:32:34has consistently played out time and

2:32:38time again. Now that we understand order

2:32:41blocks a little bit better and how to

2:32:43identify ones that work, now I want to

2:32:45show you how to actually double your

2:32:48risk-to-reward ratio with one simple

2:32:50thing. So let's take a look at this

2:32:5330-inut time frame. We are obviously

2:32:54trending bearish. Our swing high is up

2:32:58here like this. We've had a break of

2:33:00structure, right? Our swing low is down

2:33:02here. It's very simple price action. So

2:33:04we know that this low down here is our

2:33:07actual target. We know that this is our

2:33:09protected high. We know that this is a

2:33:11good order block because it has taken

2:33:14previous New York session high plus

2:33:18previous London session high. So this

2:33:20area has taken a good level of

2:33:22liquidity. It has had an aggressive

2:33:24expansion to the sell side and given us

2:33:27a bearish breaker structure. So we know

2:33:29then that this is a good order block.

2:33:31However, we don't want to just place our

2:33:34order on this level. I mean you can in

2:33:37theory, but if we were to do this, let's

2:33:40say our swing low target would be just a

2:33:43little under a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.

2:33:46That's not terrible, but you need a much

2:33:48higher hit rate. So, what I like to do

2:33:51is instead of just taking a trade from

2:33:53this level, I actually want to wait for

2:33:55price to come into this level. And when

2:33:57we get there, I want to drop down to the

2:34:001 minute time frame. And I want to tune

2:34:02in to what's actually happening in this

2:34:04level. You see, not only am I going to

2:34:06double or even sometimes triple my

2:34:09riskto-reward ratio, but I'm also going

2:34:11to add an extra level of confirmation on

2:34:14this order block to make sure that I've

2:34:16actually chosen the right order block.

2:34:17And so this one thing alone has made me

2:34:19a ridiculous amount of money. You see,

2:34:22as price approaches this level, the 1

2:34:25minute time frame tells a story. And

2:34:28that story is that right now buyers are

2:34:31in control of this market. They are

2:34:32dominating the price and they are

2:34:34pushing price higher. So, if I want to

2:34:37sell, which I do, it's a little bit

2:34:38premature to sell right now because

2:34:41instead of just having my order on here

2:34:43and my stop loss on here, I can

2:34:45essentially wait and refine [snorts]

2:34:47my risk-to-reward ratio, the area that I

2:34:50get into the market. And how I can do

2:34:52that is by waiting for confirmation

2:34:54instead of trying to just short now when

2:34:56price could very easily just continue

2:34:58trading higher. And we don't know that

2:34:59this order block is guaranteed to hold.

2:35:01We just know it's got a good

2:35:02probability. Sometimes they don't. What

2:35:04I want to do is wait for that true

2:35:06confirmation with a market reversal. So

2:35:09price is bullish. As you can see, I need

2:35:12to simply just wait for price to become

2:35:15bearish like this. Right? What we can

2:35:18see now is that we've actually broken

2:35:20this low. So we had a swing high, swing

2:35:25low, higher high, lower low. So now

2:35:28we're bearish. However, for me at this

2:35:30moment in time, my London session window

2:35:32has still not opened. So, I do need to

2:35:34wait for my London session window to

2:35:36open. Cuz see here, 1:55.

2:35:38So, boom. There you go. Straight off the

2:35:41bat, that is my New York open. So, when

2:35:43I'm preparing for New York open, I can

2:35:44already London open, sorry. I can

2:35:47already have my order in place. So, how

2:35:49would I actually look at positioning

2:35:51this level? Well, 5 minute time frame

2:35:53and the most relevant fair value gap or

2:35:55order block. In this instance, we can

2:35:57see that we have this really nice

2:35:59bearish order block. So, I want to just

2:36:02go ahead and literally just place my

2:36:05position on this level and my stop loss

2:36:07above this high. So, what we can see

2:36:09here is if I was to use the 30inut area,

2:36:12right, the level that we're looking at.

2:36:14If I zoom out, this is the order blocks

2:36:16that we're looking at. If I use this

2:36:18level and target down here, I get, let's

2:36:20say, a 1 to three. If I use this level

2:36:22and target down here, I get a 1:7.2. So

2:36:26that's over double. And not only am I

2:36:29doubling my risk-to-reward ratio, but

2:36:31I'm also allowing price to show me what

2:36:35it's going to do instead of just

2:36:37gambling and hoping that this order

2:36:39block works. I'm actually letting the

2:36:41market prove to me that I am right

2:36:43before I need to risk any of my own

2:36:45money. That is the reality of having an

2:36:47edge. So when London session is gearing

2:36:50up to open, I can already set my order

2:36:52at this level and London session opens

2:36:55with a tag into my position and an

2:36:58immediate retracement away from my

2:37:00position. And I can even be smarter. I

2:37:02can reduce risk in these moments, right?

2:37:04There's so many little subtle small

2:37:06details that we can implement that

2:37:10enable us to get much better results

2:37:12than just these standard 1 to3s.

Top Down Analysis

2:37:17If you can master top-down analysis like

2:37:20the way I'm going to share with you in

2:37:21this video today, you will have the keys

2:37:23to become profitable. Literally, all you

2:37:25need is one candle and three time

2:37:28frames. What I'm about to share with you

2:37:30is so simple it hurts my head. In

2:37:33today's video, I'm going to break down

2:37:35step by step the three trades [music]

2:37:37that I took following this one candle.

2:37:40Every single one of these trades was

2:37:42taken live with my inner circle students

2:37:45and I'm going to prove it to you.

2:37:46>> And then my my take profit level was 1

2:37:49to5 and I think I ended up getting taken

2:37:51out of like 4.8.

2:37:53>> I also made $25,000 on this day. Let's

2:37:55just jump straight into it. You can see

2:37:57here three trades that have been taken.

2:38:00One winner, one loser, and another

2:38:02winner. And I'm going to break down

2:38:03every single one of those trades. But

2:38:05most importantly, I'm going to break

2:38:06down the top-down approach that I took

2:38:08to take these trades in the first place.

2:38:10And that all starts with this thing

2:38:12right here. So, let's go back to before

2:38:15these trades are taken. The key here and

2:38:18the key to all of this is this candle

2:38:21right here. This candle is the current

2:38:24daily candle in motion. And when price

2:38:27moves, this candle moves with it. And so

2:38:31my job, right, as a top- down analyst,

2:38:34if you want to be a successful top- down

2:38:35analyst, you just need to understand the

2:38:38character of this one candle. And the

2:38:40way you first do that is basically

2:38:42understanding what the last few of those

2:38:45daily candles has actually produced. So

2:38:48we're going to go to the daily time

2:38:49frame here. I'm actually going to go

2:38:50back before this daily candle has

2:38:53printed. Now, what do you see? Right?

2:38:55And yes, it is literally this simple. We

2:38:57have one, two, three, four bearish days

2:39:01on Euro dollar, right? We have four days

2:39:03of bearish price action. Now, the

2:39:05likelihood is is that we are going to

2:39:07get a bearish continuation the next day.

2:39:09And the thing that I have in mind here

2:39:11is essentially just a continuation below

2:39:13this previous day's low and a

2:39:15continuation lower. If you look to the

2:39:17left, you just need to identify an area

2:39:19of interest. You don't need to mark out

2:39:21all of these different structure types.

2:39:22Go from the daily to the 4 hour to the 1

2:39:24hour to the 50-minut. No, you just need

2:39:26the daily time frame to give you a read

2:39:28on price. All you need to understand is

2:39:30the probability of the daily candle

2:39:32printing lower or higher and then you

2:39:34need to build trade ideas based off of

2:39:36that. That's what I'm going to show you.

2:39:37So for me, what I can clearly see here

2:39:39is we have this fair value gap right

2:39:42here, inverted fair value gap that the

2:39:44daily time frame is now trading into.

2:39:47But we've filled some of that, but we

2:39:49still have more of this fair value gap

2:39:51to be filled. So my bias even from the

2:39:54beginning of the week is that we're

2:39:55going to trade and probably fill this

2:39:57fair value gap. So I have an idea of

2:40:00where price will want to react from. I

2:40:02have the context of the last 4 days on

2:40:05Euro dollar have been bearish. All I'm

2:40:07expecting is a bearish continuation.

2:40:09Right? It's that simple. From there once

2:40:11you have that just drop down to the

2:40:1315minut time frame. And so here we are

2:40:15now on the 15minut time frame. Right?

2:40:16And the new day is about to open at 5.

2:40:19So now the new daily candle gets

2:40:21printed. And you can see that here. And

2:40:22what happens is this daily candle prints

2:40:25bearish and it does give that

2:40:26continuation, right? The daily candle

2:40:29does print bearish, but I'm starting my

2:40:31trading day in London session and

2:40:33finishing my trading day in New York

2:40:34session. So here we have London session

2:40:37has opened, right? This 2:00 a.m. candle

2:40:39right here. London session has opened.

2:40:41Now notice this is all the daily biases.

2:40:44Notice that this is a very aggressive

2:40:47green bullish candle. I personally if my

2:40:50bias for the day is lower prices I want

2:40:53to sell when the daily candle is

2:40:54bullish. If my bias for the day is

2:40:57higher prices or in that session is

2:40:59higher prices I want to buy when that

2:41:01daily candle is bearish because I

2:41:03understand also the concept of mean

2:41:05reversions. You see the higher that

2:41:07price becomes and the higher to the high

2:41:10of day that price becomes or the closer

2:41:12to the low of day price becomes the

2:41:14higher probability that price is going

2:41:15to snap back and have a mean reversion.

2:41:17That's what the other two trades are

2:41:19based off, but this first trade is based

2:41:21off a daily bearish trend continuation.

2:41:24The 15-minute time frame is bearish and

2:41:26the daily is bearish and I'm expecting

2:41:29this area of price in here to get

2:41:31filled. I have Asia low and the current

2:41:33low of day. All I need to care about is

2:41:36that this day is going to trade lower

2:41:39than previous day, which it already has,

2:41:41and we are going to revisit the low of

2:41:44the current day because we're still

2:41:46bearish. Now I could be wrong and price

2:41:48could continue trading higher but I

2:41:49would not sure if that were the case.

2:41:51All I need to do is when London session

2:41:52opens up I need to make sure that the

2:41:54internal range liquidity has been taken

2:41:56which in this instance it has and then I

2:41:58need to wait for an orderflow shift

2:42:00which is the 1 minute time frame. So

2:42:01this is daily time frame 15-minut time

2:42:04frame 1 minute time frame. Now notice

2:42:06that as price is coming up to this area

2:42:09as this daily candle is bullish the one

2:42:11minute time frame is bullish. So what we

2:42:14need to see is a reversal. Right now the

2:42:18daily candle is the daily price and the

2:42:21one minute price is moving bullish. I'm

2:42:24waiting to see it move bearish. When it

2:42:27moves bearish that is when I will look

2:42:30to enter and I will look to sell this

2:42:32market short. So until then it's just a

2:42:34waiting game. And you can see I

2:42:36literally live called this ahead of time

2:42:39with my live student. So as we can see

2:42:41we are bullish on the one minute time

2:42:42frame. Eventually the one minute time

2:42:44frame is continuing which is kind of

2:42:46normal right the M1 is bullish. So at

2:42:48this point I'm not interested in sells.

2:42:50I'm interested in sells when we trade

2:42:52below this level. If we get that trade

2:42:55below that level

2:42:57and then we do right sellers come into

2:43:00the market we overpower this. Now for me

2:43:03is most likely going to be the high of

2:43:06day. So that's what I'm trying to catch

2:43:08essentially as well is I want to try to

2:43:10catch the high of day. I want to short

2:43:13the high of day. Now, sometimes that can

2:43:15lead to you getting in a little bit

2:43:16early, which is why this is very

2:43:17important. You can't just try to short

2:43:19the market. You need to wait for the

2:43:20lower time frame confirmations. This is

2:43:22why the one minute time frame is

2:43:23important. I believe and suspect that

2:43:25this right here is going to be the

2:43:27highest point of this day. And if I just

2:43:29get that correct, maybe I get a break

2:43:31even, maybe I get a winner, but if I

2:43:33just correct on this being the high of

2:43:34day, I cannot lose money on this trade.

2:43:37So, I go now to the 5minut time frame

2:43:39and I'm just waiting for a That's what

2:43:41we have. I'm just waiting for a quick

2:43:43snap back into this bullish fivem minute

2:43:47candle. Right? Quick snap back into the

2:43:49bullish fiveminute candle. And then you

2:43:52just want to target the current low of

2:43:54day. So that's 5.21

2:43:56risk-reward. So if for example I'm

2:43:59trading $400,000, which on this day I

2:44:01was, then I am risking $4,000 1%. But

2:44:06I'm going to gain $20,000 if this trade

2:44:09comes through. And that's what this

2:44:10trade netted me. You can see price tags

2:44:12in immediately, trades away, tags back

2:44:14in, and then literally begins selling

2:44:17off, eventually hitting all of those

2:44:19lows, and myself and countless of my

2:44:22inner circle students took this exact

2:44:24trade. Then comes the New York session.

2:44:27I could be lazy and just say, you know

2:44:29what, that's my day done. $20,000 day,

2:44:31but that's not how this game works. I

2:44:33want to be the best trader, not just

2:44:35make money. I want to execute my edge

2:44:37consistently. And I still have an edge

2:44:38to play because now what is in play is

2:44:41still based off the same daily bias. Now

2:44:43that we've had the main move, right?

2:44:45Look at this daily candle. Look how

2:44:47aggressively bearish this daily candle

2:44:48is. Remember what I told you just a

2:44:50moment ago. When this daily candle is at

2:44:54the low, the snapback becomes higher

2:44:57probability. So a lot of the times when

2:44:59you have a daily candle, if we go to the

2:45:01daily candle, if we go to the daily time

2:45:03frame right now and we look at all of

2:45:04these daily candles that we have

2:45:06recently seen, what you'll notice is one

2:45:09thing is common in all of them. You'll

2:45:12notice that at some point in time,

2:45:14right, we have our open, high, low,

2:45:18close. Now, do you notice that you know

2:45:2299% of the time the low of the daily

2:45:25candle is lower than the close of the

2:45:28daily candle. Very, very important

2:45:29detail. The low is often times lower

2:45:33than the close. So, what that tells me

2:45:35even in a bearish market, what that

2:45:37tells me is at some point in time we are

2:45:39going to find the low of day and then

2:45:41we're going to have a bounce from that

2:45:42level. And this candle, maybe it

2:45:44finishes bearish and maybe tomorrow is

2:45:46more bearish price action. But I know at

2:45:47some point in time the low of day is

2:45:49going to get placed and again I want to

2:45:51catch that low of day. And people often

2:45:54times tell you don't try to catch the

2:45:55lows, don't try to catch the highs.

2:45:56That's just because they don't know what

2:45:57they're doing. That's just the truth of

2:45:58it. When you understand the daily model,

2:46:00you can do that. And it's okay if you're

2:46:02also sometimes wrong. And this is why

2:46:04confirmation becomes very important. So

2:46:06you can notice, right? Look at all of

2:46:08these daily candles. A lot of the times

2:46:10you have a significant difference

2:46:12between the low and the close, right?

2:46:17Between the low here and the close. Now,

2:46:22this little movement from this low up to

2:46:24the here may not seem like a lot, but if

2:46:26you're an intraday trader like me,

2:46:28that's a 22.4 pip move. If my stop loss

2:46:32is on average, let's say five, six pips.

2:46:35Well, that's a three, four, sometimes

2:46:37five times the size of my stop loss. So,

2:46:40I can catch a very quick sharp 1 to 3, 1

2:46:43to four, 1 to5 risk-reward on the

2:46:45bounceback. And that's exactly what this

2:46:47idea is about. It's about that in a very

2:46:49bearish day, right? When you're in the

2:46:51market like this, a very bearish day, at

2:46:53some point in time, price is probably

2:46:55going to close up here. And at some

2:46:57point in time, price is going to run

2:46:58this aggressive low and then eventually

2:47:00sellers are going to get exhausted and

2:47:02price is going to have a bounce. And I

2:47:04want to long this bounce up into the

2:47:06close of that day. That is the higher

2:47:08time frame daily bias, you know, top-

2:47:10down analysis approach to this system.

2:47:12And it literally really is that simple.

2:47:14And so I come on live session with my

2:47:16members. And now at this moment in time,

2:47:18we are just waiting for a sign of

2:47:20reversal. And for me, the lower price

2:47:22comes down into this level, the better

2:47:25it becomes because the more price goes,

2:47:27price has an average daily range move.

2:47:30Although sometimes it breaks that

2:47:32average, absolutely, a lot of the times

2:47:34it has a constraint. So the maximum

2:47:36amount of pips that it's usually going

2:47:38to trade and the more it becomes

2:47:40overextended in that one direction, well

2:47:42then we're expecting to have a bounce.

2:47:44The lower price comes, the probability

2:47:46starts increasing that that bounce is

2:47:48about to arise. And that's literally

2:47:50what we're playing off. And so you can

2:47:51see here, five minute time frame. We're

2:47:53just waiting for a bounce. And that

2:47:56first bounce happens here. And this is

2:47:58our first trade taken. In fact, we don't

2:48:00actually get into the market here

2:48:01because this isn't a big enough shift.

2:48:03We get into the market when this high

2:48:04gets taken. So you can see, right, we've

2:48:06been melting off, melting down, and now

2:48:08we're starting to get a little bit of a

2:48:09reversal. And so we wait, we wait, we

2:48:11wait, we wait, we wait. Price breaks

2:48:13this high. That's my sign now that maybe

2:48:16this here is the low of the day, right?

2:48:20That is my bias. The same that I call

2:48:21the high of the day. Now I'm looking at

2:48:24the low of the day. And so again, 5

2:48:26minute time frame, which is my usual

2:48:28entry time frame. I'm just looking at

2:48:29this inverse fair value gap. So down

2:48:31here we have this inverse for value gap,

2:48:33right? I'm putting my longs in here. My

2:48:36stop loss is going below this low. This

2:48:38is quite a larger stop loss than normal.

2:48:40Generally speaking, you can notice like

2:48:41this is a 5.7. Usually it's like a 5 6 7

2:48:454 pip stop loss. 10.2 is a little bit

2:48:47abnormal but it's still fine because 1

2:48:49to three risk-to-reward in this scenario

2:48:51which is my fixed level is essentially

2:48:53just a trend retracement. You can see

2:48:56right we have essentially a trend

2:48:57continuation a retracement trend

2:48:59continuation retracement trend

2:49:01continuation

2:49:03retracement. That's all it is. It

2:49:05happens time and time again day after

2:49:07day. And so again I'm just waiting for

2:49:09this and that's the trade that we're

2:49:11waiting for. And eventually price tags

2:49:13us in and then it tags us out. Right?

2:49:17Just like this. Then what happens on the

2:49:20lower time frame is notice that the the

2:49:22confirmation for me to get into this

2:49:24trade is that this two candle one minute

2:49:27time frame pullback gets broken. That's

2:49:29my criteria. All of my strategies have

2:49:31mechanical step-by-step rules. They're

2:49:33not random. They're not discretionary.

2:49:34They are rule-based. And I have years of

2:49:37data testing those specific rules to

2:49:39prove that they are actually profitable.

2:49:41So when I make decisions, I make

2:49:43decisions based on what I know works. So

2:49:46what happens here is we run this low.

2:49:48Okay, no problem. Maybe that's not the

2:49:50low of day. Maybe we go for one more

2:49:51sweep, right? That's again a lot of the

2:49:53times what price likes to do. If we look

2:49:54at the 15-minute time frame and we also

2:49:56look at how this 15-minute candle

2:49:58closed, it fails to close below this

2:50:0015-minute candle down here. We fail to

2:50:03break and close below, we create a swing

2:50:06down here. That for me is even a higher

2:50:08sign that we're going to get a reversal.

2:50:10So now on the one minute time frame I'm

2:50:13looking at price and we can see here we

2:50:14have a very small but still valid one

2:50:17candle two bullish candles in a pullback

2:50:21that has now been broken and closed

2:50:22above. And what do we have down here?

2:50:25Right, we have number one the fair value

2:50:28gap that sits right here. We have the

2:50:31sell to buy region as well that sits

2:50:34right here. Right on the three minute

2:50:36time frame you can see that we have this

2:50:38fair value gap. So, we can just

2:50:39literally place our order, entry on

2:50:41here, stop loss below the low. And

2:50:43again, you can see this is a 4.2 pip

2:50:46stop loss. This is a little bit more of

2:50:47an average size stop loss. You can see

2:50:49this is exact trade that we're placing

2:50:51yesterday on live with our members. And

2:50:54then I'm just looking at a simple 1 to

2:50:56three. I'm not asking for much. It's

2:50:58very easy for price to have just a

2:51:00bounce from here. Even if we then go

2:51:02lower, right? I'm just assuming that

2:51:04this is probably going to be the low of

2:51:05the day. That's all I'm trying to find.

2:51:06And again, many people will tell you

2:51:08don't try to find the low of the day or

2:51:09don't try to catch a fallen knife or

2:51:11just trade the trend. I make hundreds of

2:51:13thousands of dollars not taking that

2:51:15advice. So, I mean, please continue.

2:51:18Don't do this, right? More for me. But I

2:51:20literally make a living catching highs

2:51:22and lows. That's what my strategy is.

2:51:24And so, yeah, that is the trade idea.

2:51:26And then you can see price comes back,

2:51:28really nice tag, really nice reversal,

2:51:31and literally we get tagged in around

2:51:3410:00 a.m. and we get tagged out at

2:51:35around 10:51. Less than an hour. That's

2:51:38a one to three riskreward. That's

2:51:39$12,000. I'm risking $4,000 to gain

2:51:42$12,000. And that was my day. Three

2:51:44trades taken, $25,000 in profit.

I Never Enter a Trade Without This

2:51:49All traders want the same thing. We want

2:51:52to take more winning trades and less

2:51:54losing trades. I've been trading now for

2:51:56over 5 years and this has been something

2:51:58that I [music] have obsessed over. How

2:52:00can I lose less and win more? And after

2:52:03testing thousands of trades, there's one

2:52:06concept [music] that I use that enables

2:52:08me to take more winning trades and less

2:52:11losing trades. And in this video, I'm

2:52:13going to break down that one simple

2:52:15concept for you. [music] So, for us to

2:52:17understand this concept, I'm going to be

2:52:20breaking down the anatomy [music] of a

2:52:21candlestick. Now, before you start

2:52:23thinking, oh, a candlestick, this is

2:52:25super beginner, blah, blah, blah. You

2:52:27hear people online talking about

2:52:28candlesticks, and to be quite frank,

2:52:29they have absolutely no clue what

2:52:31they're talking about, when you really

2:52:32dive deep into the anatomy of a

2:52:35candlestick, it's a completely different

2:52:36game. You see, as a trader, you are

2:52:38trading candlesticks. That is what you

2:52:40are trying to read. Now, a candlestick

2:52:42is just the physical manifestation of

2:52:46the order book inside. And so, you may

2:52:48be asking, what's the order book? Well,

2:52:49the order book is this here. This is

2:52:52what the order book looks like. And so

2:52:53on every single time frame, one candle

2:52:58represents the start and finish of that

2:53:00time frame. So if you're on a 15-minute

2:53:02time frame, each candle represents 15

2:53:05minutes of trading. And in that 15

2:53:07minutes of trading, the buyers and the

2:53:09sellers, the activity inside of that

2:53:10price leg forms a candle. And that tells

2:53:13you everything that you need to know

2:53:15about what's actually happening in the

2:53:17market right now. And what happens is

2:53:19inside of this candle is this. And this

2:53:23right here is the order flow. So I'll

2:53:25show you an actual image of an

2:53:26orderflow, but for the purpose of this,

2:53:28we're going to simplify it because it's

2:53:30pretty much the same concept. Now, first

2:53:32let's quickly understand the four

2:53:35important points of a candlestick. So

2:53:37this is a bullish candle. We have the

2:53:39high, we have the close, we have the

2:53:41open, and we have the low. The high

2:53:43represents the highest point that price

2:53:46reached in that time period. So if we're

2:53:48on a daily time frame, it's going to be

2:53:50the highest point that price reached in

2:53:52that day. The close of a bullish candle

2:53:55is going to be here. This is where price

2:53:58closed. So at the end of the day when we

2:54:02go and form the new candle, the close is

2:54:04going to be where we were at that moment

2:54:06in time. The open which is the low of

2:54:10the body is going to be where price

2:54:12opened on that day. So when the new day

2:54:15began we open with a new candle and that

2:54:18is your open and then the low is the

2:54:21lowest point that price reached in that

2:54:24day. So we have high open low and close.

2:54:28For a bearish candle pretty similar but

2:54:30a little bit different because a bullish

2:54:32candle goes from here up to here. That's

2:54:35what makes it bullish. Well, a bearish

2:54:37candle goes the opposite. It opens here

2:54:40and finishes down here. That's why it is

2:54:42a bearish candle because price moves

2:54:44lower. So, for a bearish candle, you

2:54:45have the high, which is the highest

2:54:47point that price reached in that time

2:54:49period. You have the open. Now, unlike

2:54:51the bullish one that opens lower and

2:54:53closes higher, a bearish one opens

2:54:56higher and closes lower. So, the open is

2:54:59here, the close is down here, and the

2:55:03low is down here. Very, very simple

2:55:05stuff. What we want to understand is

2:55:07what's the actual process that's taking

2:55:09place as a candle forms because the

2:55:12formation of that candle [music] shows

2:55:14to you what's happening inside the order

2:55:16book and what's happening inside of this

2:55:17order book and what's happening in this

2:55:19candle are one and the same thing and

2:55:21it's telling you everything you need to

2:55:22know about the current ideology and

2:55:26sentiment from everybody who's

2:55:27participating in this market. Now, let's

2:55:30take a look at how we can get the next

2:55:33candle [music] to form and what's going

2:55:34to happen inside of that day. Let's use

2:55:36this candle to be our previous day. So,

2:55:39each candle represents one day. This

2:55:41candle was our last day for Euro dollar.

2:55:43So, we had a bearish day. We opened

2:55:45price up in here. This was the high of

2:55:48price. We had a very aggressively

2:55:50bearish day. We closed down here and

2:55:52this was the low of price. So how that

2:55:54happens is a lot of the times when you

2:55:55see a bearish candle, this bearish

2:55:57candle may have started bullish maybe

2:56:00started like this, right? The candle

2:56:02opened, we had a run up to the buy side

2:56:05like this. A lot of the times this

2:56:07happens and then after we've kind of

2:56:10liquidated something or something like

2:56:11that, then we come back down and then we

2:56:14turn into a bearish candle and then it

2:56:16comes all the way down to here like

2:56:18this, right? and then it's a bearish

2:56:21candle and then it comes back up a

2:56:24little bit and then this is where it's

2:56:26closed. That is how the high to the low

2:56:30and then back to the close is formed.

2:56:32And so understanding this candle is

2:56:35understanding what's going on inside

2:56:37this order flow. So let's say we're

2:56:39going to look at the next day and how

2:56:40that next day is going to form. Well, if

2:56:42this is the close of the previous day,

2:56:44then the next day is going to open here,

2:56:47regardless of whether it's a bullish or

2:56:49bearish day, it's going to open here

2:56:51because the close of the previous candle

2:56:54is the open of the next candle. If it's

2:56:57a bullish day, so you know, it looks

2:57:00like this, then the open will be down

2:57:03here, right? Because this is where we

2:57:04open regardless. Same as a bullish

2:57:07model. We open down here and the close

2:57:10would be up here and that would be a

2:57:12bullish day. Well, let's say it was a

2:57:14bearish day. Let's say, you know, price

2:57:17opens here. We have a run up in price

2:57:20here. So, this would be the highest that

2:57:22price reached and then it comes back

2:57:25down like this and then trades lower

2:57:28down in here and ends up closing out as

2:57:31a bearish candle. Maybe price reached

2:57:33down to this price in here having a bit

2:57:35of a retracement back up during the day

2:57:39and then it closes there. That would be

2:57:41the open, the high, the low and the

2:57:46[music] close. That's the formation.

2:57:47Now, how does this get built? What

2:57:49happens during that day? So, let's go

2:57:51back to the beginning of the day. So,

2:57:53we're starting a new day. And so, this

2:57:55is the close of the previous day. And

2:57:56so, the new day is going to be opening

2:57:57at this price point or inside the order

2:57:59book. It's going to be here. The new day

2:58:01is opening at let's just say05.

2:58:05That is the price. So in the order book

2:58:08we have the price. We have the bid which

2:58:10is essentially another word for demand

2:58:12right or buyers. And then we have the

2:58:14ask which is another word for sellers.

2:58:17Just think of it as bid is people

2:58:18willing to bid on something. So you're

2:58:20willing to buy something. And ask you

2:58:23are asking for something in return. So

2:58:25you're selling something. The current

2:58:28price at any one moment in time is what

2:58:30is deemed as fair value. It's because

2:58:33that price right now is what the market

2:58:35agrees is the fair price for this

2:58:38specific thing at this specific time. It

2:58:41cannot be any other way. If it was to be

2:58:44any other way and the market didn't deem

2:58:46this as a fair value area, then the

2:58:48market would do something about it. So

2:58:50if for example this was the price and

2:58:53buyers disagreed heavily with that price

2:58:55well what they could do is they could

2:58:57buy at this price in the order book

2:59:00there are let's say five lots of sells

2:59:04willing to be sold at this level because

2:59:07at any point in [music] time there are

2:59:08two market participants. You have

2:59:10passive and you have aggressive. Your

2:59:12passive side of the market are the

2:59:14people who put their orders in. So think

2:59:16about your limit orders right or your

2:59:18stop orders. Passive order is

2:59:20essentially a intention to do something.

2:59:24So if you see order book like this and

2:59:26you see you know 124 lots of orders up

2:59:28here what that is is that's a person or

2:59:31a group of people who have the intention

2:59:34of selling at that price point. At any

2:59:36point in time they can remove their

2:59:37orders before they get triggered. The

2:59:39same is true for the buy side. These

2:59:40orders that you see resting in here they

2:59:42are your passive orders. Then you also

2:59:44have your aggressive orders. Your

2:59:46aggressive orders are the orders that

2:59:48come in at market value from people who

2:59:51aren't willing to wait. So what they

2:59:54will do is they aren't willing to wait

2:59:56for price to come back down to here to

2:59:57buy. They want to buy right now at this

2:59:59price. They don't care. They're going to

3:00:01accept it. That is what's called the

3:00:02premium. So they're going to buy and

3:00:04place that order. Now let's say there

3:00:06are five orders in here, 12 orders in

3:00:08here. And let's say someone comes into

3:00:10the market with 20 lots of buy orders.

3:00:14And they're not going to wait. They're

3:00:15just going to buy right here, right now.

3:00:17And so here's what happens. 20 orders

3:00:19come into the market. Now, there is

3:00:21nobody here at this price point willing

3:00:25to sell 20 orders. So what happens? The

3:00:28market goes to the next available block

3:00:31of liquidity, which is the price that

3:00:33has sellers willing to sell what this

3:00:36buyer is asking for. So these 20 lots of

3:00:39buy orders, five of them will get filled

3:00:43at this level. So not all 20 will get

3:00:45filled because there's no one on the

3:00:47other side. Right? For every buyer,

3:00:48there must be a seller. Five get filled

3:00:50from here. Taking this five here from

3:00:53five to zero. So now there are no more

3:00:56orders at this level. So what happens?

3:00:59Well, now the current price moves from 5

3:01:04to 106. That is the last active area of

3:01:08transaction. That simply means that this

3:01:10is now the accepted value of price. And

3:01:13so what happens to the candle in this

3:01:15event? Well, it opens here right at

3:01:1910005 where it's supposed to open and

3:01:21then it trades up to 06. And so this

3:01:27begins to start looking like a bullish

3:01:30candle. But we're not done yet because

3:01:32there were 20 orders that came into the

3:01:34market at 10005, but there were only

3:01:37five available and they were available

3:01:39at 10006. That means there are still 15

3:01:42outstanding orders. So what happens?

3:01:45Well, price then goes to the next

3:01:47available block of liquidity. And here

3:01:50there are 12 orders. So all of these 12

3:01:53orders get fulfilled. And the 12 orders

3:01:55that were sitting there go down to zero.

3:01:58And so the fair value of price moves to

3:02:0217.

3:02:04And so too does the candle begin to form

3:02:07to the next price point. Now we go into

3:02:101 07. And so now there were 20 orders.

3:02:15Five got filled leaving 15 remaining.

3:02:18Then 12 got filled. That leaves three

3:02:21remaining. And so those next three

3:02:23orders get triggered at

3:02:2708. And so the 33 orders that were in

3:02:30there, three of those orders get filled,

3:02:32taking this to 31. And so then they have

3:02:35absorbed the orders. And very likely

3:02:38price is heading back up into this one8.

3:02:41And so that's how you see price started

3:02:43in here and then traded up until here.

3:02:47And what happens as well in real time

3:02:49very very fast inside the order book is

3:02:52that these spots start to fill up very

3:02:54quickly. People come back into the

3:02:55market and then you'll see a five in

3:02:57here. You see a 10 in here. You see a 30

3:03:02in here. These fill back up, right? You

3:03:04see an 11 in here. You see a 12 in here,

3:03:07right? For example, now what happens?

3:03:10Let's say that we get into this price

3:03:12and this is the exact price that there

3:03:14are now 31 passive sellers who want to

3:03:18get into the market are at. And let's

3:03:21say, you know, let's say there wasn't 30

3:03:23in here. There were 15.

3:03:26Let's say there were 10 buyers in here.

3:03:30Say there were four in here. So here we

3:03:34have 15 lots of buys, 10 lots of buys

3:03:37and four lots of buys. So when we reach

3:03:39this level, now we have the passive 31

3:03:43orders that are sitting at this price

3:03:45point. Well, a portion of them were just

3:03:47[music] filled if you remember. So now

3:03:50let's say you were a person who had a

3:03:54short position at 08. Here's how it

3:03:58works. Usually it works in a

3:04:00hierarchical structure. Meaning if you

3:04:04were the first person to put your order

3:04:07in at this price point, then just a

3:04:10moment ago when the three orders got

3:04:12filled from this level, you would have

3:04:14been one of them. Let's say you had two

3:04:15of your orders. Your two would have got

3:04:18filled. But let's say you were the 30th

3:04:20person. Well, you may have an order at

3:04:2310008, but you didn't get filled because

3:04:26there was no one at that price point

3:04:27willing to take. Remember, these are

3:04:29passive orders. And so, as of right now,

3:04:31there is no one willing to buy at this

3:04:33specific price point. So, there are

3:04:34still 31 orders at this price point, but

3:04:37no one is taking them. No one is

3:04:40offering the other side. And so, that's

3:04:41why sometimes price just stays still.

3:04:43And then you may have an active buyer

3:04:47who comes into the market. And that

3:04:49active buyer may want to take 15 orders.

3:04:53And so, 15 buy orders come in at 10008.

3:04:57And then 15 sell orders get activated at

3:05:0010008 leaving 16 orders remaining. Now

3:05:03we've had transactions but price hasn't

3:05:06moved. Price has stayed the same. That

3:05:08is fair value. That is the agreed upon

3:05:11acceptable rate at this moment in time.

3:05:14That is fair value. [music] So at any

3:05:16point in time, wherever the market is,

3:05:18that is where it's supposed to be at

3:05:19that given time. Now let's say those 31

3:05:22orders now drop down to 16, right?

3:05:25because now the other lot of orders were

3:05:29filled by the person who just came into

3:05:31the market. Well, now let's say an

3:05:33active seller steps into the market and

3:05:36let's say that seller is a big whale and

3:05:39he wants to initiate 100 lots of that

3:05:42position. Well, now guess what? This

3:05:44candle in here is going to change

3:05:47because those 100 cells that come in at

3:05:5210008, 15 of them get triggered here, 10

3:05:56get triggered here, four get triggered

3:05:58here, seven here, eight here, five here,

3:06:02the other 35 in here, and then let's

3:06:04just say there were 150 orders at one.

3:06:08Well, now what happens? These 100 orders

3:06:10flood to the market and all of a sudden

3:06:12we go from being here and then as these

3:06:15100 orders get filled, 15 get filled

3:06:18here, 10 get filled here, four here, 7

3:06:22here, 8, 5, 35, and then we get into

3:06:26here. And so now we've shifted from a

3:06:28bullish candle to a bearish candle. And

3:06:30this now goes to red. And now we're at

3:06:33this area because these 100 orders that

3:06:35came into the market filled at this

3:06:37specific price point. And then this

3:06:39where we are right now is the current

3:06:41fair value. And then let's just say for

3:06:43math sake, you know, 30 people come into

3:06:45here and then 100 people come into the

3:06:48market actively, right? It's active

3:06:50people that move the market. They fill

3:06:52those 30. They fill the other 30 in here

3:06:55and then there's 100 in here. Let's just

3:06:56say as those orders come into the

3:06:58market, price comes back up, right?

3:07:01Right? So we can take this. This is the

3:07:04lowest point that price reached. Price

3:07:06goes from here. 100 come in. 30 get

3:07:08filled here. 30 get filled here. The

3:07:09rest of the orders get filled in here.

3:07:11And then let's say the day closes. Well,

3:07:14that is how the daily candle would be

3:07:16formed. And it's formed off the back of

3:07:18what takes place in the order book. So

3:07:20all of the orders that are being

3:07:22transacted at these prices that tells

3:07:25you exactly what is in the minds of

3:07:28people because now we have the high, the

3:07:31open,

3:07:33the low and the [music] close. We have a

3:07:37bearish candle. As you look at that

3:07:39bearish candle, you think that there is

3:07:41selling momentum. So sellers may be in

3:07:44control. And that's exactly what is

3:07:46happening. But we've seen it firsthand

3:07:48inside of the actual order book. We have

3:07:50seen that sellers have outweighed buyers

3:07:54today because more sellers came into the

3:07:56market. There were more orders and the

3:07:59buyers could not handle it. They

3:08:00couldn't support it. So, they got filled

3:08:03and we ended up opening here. We started

3:08:05bullish and then sellers took back

3:08:07control of the market and pushed price

3:08:09down. That is what's actually going on

3:08:11in the moment when you see a candlestick

3:08:14get formed. Now that you understand

3:08:16that, you will never look at a

3:08:18candlestick the same again because now

3:08:20you will understand what's actually

3:08:22going on inside of the candle. Now, in

3:08:25this segment, I just wanted to give you

3:08:27the framework of understanding of the

3:08:29candlestick. I still haven't even got to

3:08:31the concept yet, but for me to give you

3:08:32the concept, it's very important that

3:08:35you understand how a candlestick gets

3:08:37formed and what happens inside of that

3:08:40candlestick. Because if you want to be a

3:08:42profitable trader consistently

3:08:43long-term, you have to really understand

3:08:46what the market is doing. And the market

3:08:48is the collective of millions of minds

3:08:50who are making decisions. You have to

3:08:52understand what that collective mind is

3:08:54doing. Not just what the candlesticks

3:08:55are saying, but what the people are

3:08:57thinking as each candlestick gets

3:08:59printed. That's what's going to make you

3:09:01a profitable trader. Now let me take you

3:09:03into the concept and how by

3:09:05understanding this and applying one very

3:09:07important thing is what enabled me to

3:09:09win more trades and stop [music] taking

3:09:11trades that resulted in more losses. Now

3:09:13let's imagine the next day was very

3:09:15bullish. We had a bearish day then we

3:09:17had another bearish day but less

3:09:19momentum less aggression more of a

3:09:22neutral day. Now what you can see is you

3:09:24can see that the lows down here the high

3:09:26is up here. This is more of a neutral.

3:09:29Now it's more neutral/bearish

3:09:32because we do end up closing lower. The

3:09:34key point you have to understand is that

3:09:36this was the close of the previous day,

3:09:38right? And then this is the close of the

3:09:40day after. So if the close of the day

3:09:41after is lower than the close of the

3:09:43previous day, then it's fair to assume

3:09:46the market agrees that lower than this

3:09:50is fair value, right? That's exactly how

3:09:52it goes. But it's less aggressive. Then

3:09:55let's say the next day we have this

3:09:56aggressively bullish candle like this.

3:09:58So buyers are obviously in control with

3:10:00price. We have a little bit of a of a

3:10:04wick on the buy side, but pretty strong

3:10:06aggressive bullish candle. We've broken

3:10:08above and closed above the previous days

3:10:11high. And then let's say as the next day

3:10:13comes in, sellers begin pushing price

3:10:16down like this. So we open here. It

3:10:20looks to be starting bearish like this.

3:10:22This is the lowest point that price

3:10:24reaches. And then price shifts to go

3:10:28high and then we get a run of the highs.

3:10:31And so at that moment in time, we've

3:10:33just broken above this old swing high.

3:10:37This is now a bullish candle. So the

3:10:41market is agreeing that price is

3:10:42bullish, that we're supposed to be above

3:10:45this price. But then let's say sellers

3:10:48don't agree with this price and so they

3:10:50step in. They think that this is a wrong

3:10:51accusation. Then what happens is we

3:10:54start to see a rejection, a move out of

3:10:57this price point and maybe even back to

3:11:01the sell side like this. And then this

3:11:05is where market closes. So we had the

3:11:08open, we had buyers who pushed price up

3:11:11believing that price was supposed to go

3:11:13higher. Sellers had nothing to say about

3:11:14it. For a moment there was a time where

3:11:16the market agreed that higher than this

3:11:18previous high was fair and then sellers

3:11:21completely disagreed with that and so

3:11:23they pushed price down outweighed the

3:11:25buyers and then this is what the candle

3:11:27looks like. And so now what we have is a

3:11:30liquidation. This is a rejection. The

3:11:33fact that price cannot break above this

3:11:36high and close above it being the key

3:11:39word and the fact that it's also done

3:11:41the same with the previous day's candle.

3:11:43The likelihood of price continuing to

3:11:46trade higher is very slim. So just off

3:11:49the basis of understanding the logic

3:11:51behind price. Sellers are controlling

3:11:53this price. We've tried to take out this

3:11:55high. It's been met with rejection from

3:11:59sellers. The market has closed down

3:12:01here. That simply means the auction of

3:12:04the market agrees that price is not

3:12:07supposed to be above this high. So

3:12:09immediately we have a frame for an

3:12:12understanding of price. The problem that

3:12:14many people make is they see this wick

3:12:17here and they believe that this is a

3:12:19break of structure. And so what do they

3:12:21do? They think that this is indicative

3:12:23of higher prices. They think that that

3:12:25is a bullish sign. So when they come

3:12:27into the market the next day and they

3:12:29see that they're trying to buy price.

3:12:32And so when they go into a lower time

3:12:33frame, as the next daily candle forms,

3:12:36there's a lot of people out there

3:12:37thinking that this is actually bullish

3:12:40price action. And what makes it worse is

3:12:42the common trait of price here is to

3:12:45open here, give us a move to the upside

3:12:49like this, right? Starting out to be

3:12:51bullish and then a lot of the times

3:12:54you'll see the continuation. You'll see

3:12:57the real rejection of price. And this

3:13:02usually ends up to be something that

3:13:04looks like this. A very bearish next

3:13:07move. This is what I want to be sharing

3:13:09with you. You have to understand that if

3:13:12a price fails to close above an old

3:13:16high, it is very highly likely that the

3:13:19next candle that gets printed is going

3:13:21to be a bearish one. It's also a lot of

3:13:24the times when we take it one step

3:13:26further, which we're going to do in just

3:13:27a moment, it also gives contextual

3:13:29understanding to something even deeper,

3:13:32something that you could maybe

3:13:33anticipate. And so what you'll often see

3:13:35in a time like this is, you know, if

3:13:37price was in a scenario where we had a

3:13:40move up to create this pullback to push

3:13:42higher, failure to break this high. A

3:13:44lot of the time the responsibility of

3:13:47buyers who are propping up these moves

3:13:50is to overpower the sellers that stepped

3:13:53into the market here. There's a power

3:13:55struggle at play between sellers and

3:13:56buyers. As always, supply and demand.

3:13:58Now, when buyers move like this, try to

3:14:01attack this high, fail to break it, the

3:14:05reason they fail to break it is because

3:14:06they push it past momentarily and then

3:14:08sellers step back in and regain control

3:14:10of the market. Many people think that

3:14:12this is a sign of bullishness. when a

3:14:14lot of the times it's actually not. The

3:14:16fact that we closed back inside this

3:14:17range is very indicative that this low

3:14:21down here is now weak and could even be

3:14:24look to be targeted because then you'll

3:14:26have a candle like this and then you're

3:14:29going to have another day that's

3:14:32aggressively bearish again and you may

3:14:34see that price starts to prop up. Buyers

3:14:36try to take control of the market. This

3:14:38looks like it's starting to print green

3:14:40only for the sellers to take back

3:14:43control of the market and push price

3:14:46lower. This is what you will see a lot

3:14:48of times. You'll see that these candles

3:14:50that have these large wicks, they start

3:14:51bullish and then or at some point they

3:14:54get bullish and then they continue

3:14:56moving to the downside. And then when

3:14:58you see a candle close like this one and

3:15:01you look at it and you see that it's

3:15:03being broken and closed below that is

3:15:06when you can confirm that this actually

3:15:08is a bearish market. When you have this

3:15:12confirmation because this is telling you

3:15:14that the market buyers and sellers

3:15:17regardless of what they think because

3:15:19someone can think something or it's

3:15:21supposed to be like this but the reality

3:15:23is objectivity. The reality is no matter

3:15:26whether people think that price should

3:15:28be higher, the market is agreeing that

3:15:31price should be lower than this old low.

3:15:34So sellers are in control. The market is

3:15:37overall bearish. Now you have a low to a

3:15:40high to a new lower low that is actually

3:15:45confirmed. It's confirmed because we

3:15:47close below it. The difference is that

3:15:50once upon a time price reached above

3:15:52this high. It couldn't hold itself. the

3:15:54market closed below it. The market close

3:15:58is very important because that tells you

3:16:00this is what the market agrees on at the

3:16:02end of this day, at the end of this

3:16:0415-minute period, at the end of this 1

3:16:06hour period. This is right. This is fair

3:16:09value. Then you can start building ideas

3:16:12based off of true moves. Because once

3:16:14you have a clear break of a low, now you

3:16:17understand direction. And then what you

3:16:19can start to do is then you can really

3:16:21start to get involved in these types of

3:16:23moves because now you can find something

3:16:25like this, a nice order block like this,

3:16:28a nice supply zone in here. And then you

3:16:32can look at using this level, right?

3:16:35That has a nice fair value gap inside of

3:16:38it.

3:16:40You can use this level to look at

3:16:42building trade ideas because then even

3:16:45if price makes its way back up,

3:16:51it's likely going to make its way back

3:16:53down because it's the footprint, the

3:16:57flow of orders that make up your

3:17:01structure, right? It's the flow of

3:17:03orders that make up the overall dynamic

3:17:06of price. And so when the flow [snorts]

3:17:08of orders in consecutive fashion are

3:17:12moving lower like this, the logic is is

3:17:16that we move lower. So let's go and

3:17:18apply this now to some real world

3:17:20examples to show some of the mistakes

3:17:22that people make using this and also how

3:17:25I use it to approach certain conditions

3:17:28that enable me to pick the right trades,

3:17:31pick the right areas and most

3:17:32importantly avoid losses and make sure

3:17:34that I'm capitalizing on winning

3:17:36opportunities. So here we are on the 1

3:17:38hour time frame, right? Euro dollar. You

3:17:41can see that at this moment in time

3:17:42price is bullish. You can see that price

3:17:45is moving in this direction, right? You

3:17:48can see obviously that price is bullish.

3:17:51Now, you can see that the current high

3:17:52is all the way up here. The current low,

3:17:55how we identify that is look at what was

3:17:57broken. So, here's the highest point

3:17:59that was broken in this price leg. Okay.

3:18:02Now, where's the lowest point before

3:18:03that break? So, I can just go here to

3:18:07here and pull it across. Okay. The

3:18:10lowest point is here. This is the lowest

3:18:13point. So we go from higher high, right?

3:18:16Like this

3:18:18from higher high to higher low to higher

3:18:21high. So we're bullish. The trend is

3:18:23overall bullish. Very obvious and

3:18:25confirmed with this break of this high.

3:18:27Then what happens is price comes back in

3:18:30here. Looks to go and attack this high.

3:18:33So we have a high up in here that is

3:18:35going under attack. This is the high. As

3:18:39price plays out, you can see we go for

3:18:42the high, but we fail to break it. We

3:18:46actually close back inside of the range.

3:18:49We take the high, but we close down

3:18:52here. So therefore, it's evident that

3:18:54the market has agreed price isn't

3:18:58supposed to be above this high. And yet

3:19:01still people will sit there and try to

3:19:04think that this is a break of structure

3:19:05and they'll try to buy from somewhere

3:19:07like this, right? an order block in

3:19:09here. They'll put their entries on.

3:19:11They'll put their stops in a safe

3:19:13logical position. They'll try to target

3:19:14the old high like this, not realizing

3:19:17that the likelihood is is if market is

3:19:19not accepting this area, then this order

3:19:23block is invalidated. This low down here

3:19:26is probably a target because the

3:19:28responsibility of this low, if the low

3:19:30from here wants to take control of this

3:19:32market, it needs to break this high and

3:19:35close above it with conviction to claim

3:19:38it. And so, kind of fast forward to see

3:19:40what plays out. Price trades again. We

3:19:43start coming back to a pullback and then

3:19:46you can see we have another break of the

3:19:49high without a close. And anyone who was

3:19:52trying to buy from this area just got

3:19:55destroyed. Now you can see price tried

3:19:58again. We tried to break it. We failed

3:20:00to do so. Closed back inside of the

3:20:01range and then had the aggressive sell

3:20:04off and then we close down here. At this

3:20:05point it's very obvious that the market

3:20:07is not accepting this low to be in

3:20:10control. It's not accepting that price

3:20:12should be above this high. And so now we

3:20:15have a low down here which is very

3:20:18likely to be targeted. Now bearing in

3:20:20mind this is the mistake that people

3:20:21make because for me we are bullish from

3:20:25the low down here to the highest point

3:20:28price reached up here. That's my

3:20:30structure. So I'm looking to buy for

3:20:32example let's say you know you have this

3:20:34old breaker block in here. Right? You

3:20:36have an old breaker. You can remove this

3:20:39part that's already been mitigated. So

3:20:41you're looking at an area like this.

3:20:43This is a logical area that price could

3:20:45potentially react from this old breaker

3:20:47level. Right? You also have this

3:20:50potential order block that price could

3:20:52react from. These are the areas that I

3:20:53would be expecting for price to trade

3:20:56out from because we're still bullish.

3:20:59But the problem is is that people are

3:21:01trying to long from here thinking these

3:21:03are breaks and they're not. that gets

3:21:05you stuck on the wrong side of the

3:21:06market. And then again, price starts

3:21:08trading higher. And so every man and

3:21:10their dog start flocking to the market

3:21:11thinking that price is going to break

3:21:12higher. When the reality is is price has

3:21:14just shown us that it does not accept to

3:21:16be higher than that price point at this

3:21:18moment in time. If it breaks and closes

3:21:20above it, then we can reassess things.

3:21:22But until it does, it's not. And you can

3:21:24see price ends up coming back down and

3:21:27does exactly what? Price ends up

3:21:29breaking below this low. not closing

3:21:31below it, which is key for right now,

3:21:33but we've taken out this low. And so now

3:21:36what happens? Well, so many of people in

3:21:38the market now are seeing the price like

3:21:39we have a high, we have a low, we have a

3:21:41high up here, we have a new low down

3:21:43here. Okay, now I'm going to look for

3:21:44short positions. Maybe they're looking

3:21:47at, you know, the order block in here.

3:21:49Maybe they're looking at the fair value

3:21:52gap in here, right? Even kind of IT or

3:21:54SMC traders, right? They're looking at

3:21:56positions like this where they can look

3:21:58at selling. Maybe they put their stop

3:22:00loss at the body closes in here, right?

3:22:03And then they're trying to target maybe

3:22:04the next draw on liquidity or something

3:22:06down here. These are the types of trade

3:22:08ideas that people are getting off the

3:22:09basis of this when the reality is is the

3:22:12market has not accepted this price to be

3:22:14higher. So if you kind of continue

3:22:16playing price out,

3:22:18price begins finding an area of support

3:22:20at this old breaker level, right? We

3:22:23begin rounding off. Now some traders are

3:22:25trying to get involved in shorts.

3:22:28Some traders have just been tagged into

3:22:29their shorts and they get tagged

3:22:30straight out. Now, we are still not

3:22:33above this high. So, until price can

3:22:36prove that we can break from this high,

3:22:39it still doesn't matter.

3:22:42And again, you can see that price begins

3:22:44rejecting from this high. Still a break,

3:22:46nothing. Expecting the next candle to be

3:22:49bearish. It's expected.

3:22:53Same thing again, right? Price cannot

3:22:55break the high. price is agreeing that

3:22:58price shouldn't be higher. And so now

3:22:59the problem is is that everyone again,

3:23:02same thing. They just got stopped out of

3:23:05their positions above these highs in

3:23:08here. And so now what do they have? They

3:23:12don't have anything. They've just been

3:23:14stopped out once, stopped out twice,

3:23:15right? And they're just on the

3:23:17consistently wrong side of the market.

3:23:21And then price gets the break. And then

3:23:24price gets the close and that is when

3:23:27we've confirmed that we're ready to go

3:23:29higher. And so now we actually have the

3:23:31break, but most importantly the close.

3:23:35You can see the difference in the

3:23:37market. Huge difference between price

3:23:40just wicking a high and closing back in

3:23:43versus breaking above and closing with

3:23:45momentum. This clearly tells you that

3:23:48buyers are in control of the market and

3:23:50that market is likely to go higher.

3:23:52little kind of pieces of data that tell

3:23:54you so much once you understand the

3:23:57actual order book. Once you understand

3:23:58what's going on in the order book, it

3:24:00makes reading a price chart so much more

3:24:03powerful. But we still have a problem

3:24:05because there's a lot of the market

3:24:06that's looking at this. They're like,

3:24:07"Okay, you know, this was a shift of the

3:24:09high and then there's a little pullback

3:24:11and then we break." And so they at this

3:24:13moment in time, they're actually looking

3:24:15at this and thinking, "Okay, my way

3:24:18works. We had a break. We had a comeback

3:24:20down here and we shifted higher. So

3:24:23great, it worked. It's a break. We pull

3:24:24back, we go higher. Well, guess what

3:24:26they do now? They use this as their new

3:24:28low. And then they use this as their,

3:24:31you know, high. And so now what they're

3:24:33trying to do is they're going to be

3:24:34trying to long from like this. They're

3:24:37going to be looking like, well, I'm in

3:24:38the premium of the price, uh, the

3:24:40discount of the price like we have an

3:24:41order block here. Price going to come

3:24:43back into here and trade higher. That's

3:24:44their idea. They're going to do

3:24:46something like this. Maybe they put it

3:24:48down here. Maybe they put it on the low

3:24:50and then they want to go, you know,

3:24:52somewhere [music] up in here. Who knows?

3:24:53But this is somewhat of their idea. But

3:24:56again, they're completely flawed because

3:24:57how I'm seeing this is [music] it's not

3:24:59a high until it's broken. So we have a

3:25:02high, right? Price goes high, low up

3:25:05into here. We pull back, we don't break

3:25:07because we don't break. This is the

3:25:09high. We failed to break it. So this

3:25:10becomes the high, right? Failed to break

3:25:13it. So now

3:25:16this is the high. very very different

3:25:18concept. We do a low to a high to a low

3:25:24to a high. Very very different concepts.

3:25:27So this is my low

3:25:30and then this is the possibly current

3:25:32high if it comes back. If it continues

3:25:33going higher, the high will go higher.

3:25:35[snorts] But this is what the price

3:25:36looks like. So some people are seeing

3:25:38like this. This is the mistake they're

3:25:40making because they don't wait for

3:25:41candle closes. They're trying to long

3:25:42thinking this is their protected low.

3:25:44Now because I know that so many people

3:25:46in the market are doing that to me this

3:25:48is liquidity

3:25:50this is liquidity so I can expect that

3:25:52price will probably trade through this

3:25:54level and then you can look at areas

3:25:56like you know we have a fair value gap

3:25:59in here that's the only real level kind

3:26:01of have this inverted fair value gap and

3:26:03so you could build a trade idea off that

3:26:05you could build a long position again

3:26:07this isn't exactly how I trade I'm just

3:26:09kind of giving you the frameworks of

3:26:10understanding candlestick concept

3:26:12because regardless of how you trade if

3:26:13you can understand how to actually get a

3:26:15bias and what highs and lows to use and

3:26:17how to confirm them. You can trade

3:26:18anything as long as it makes sense. And

3:26:20so you could be more aligned with

3:26:22something like this where you're taking

3:26:24the open of the F value and you're still

3:26:25targeting the highs. Play price

3:26:29begins reversing. Now this is where most

3:26:31of them are trying to get involved in

3:26:32the market

3:26:34and the market sits in their area.

3:26:38Sits in their area.

3:26:40Now they're getting an absorption. So

3:26:42maybe they're thinking that the momentum

3:26:43is slowing down. They get a little run

3:26:45in here. This is probably enticing more

3:26:47people into the market because they

3:26:49believe that this is their low. But for

3:26:50me, it's liquidity, right? That that's

3:26:52not the actual low. Then price runs

3:26:54through, gives them another little bit

3:26:56of a reaction, and then eventually

3:27:02takes them straight out,

3:27:05right?

3:27:07And then you get reaction like that.

3:27:08Like it's not lucky. It's not. It's just

3:27:12it's logic. You confirm something when

3:27:14it breaks.

3:27:16It's confirmed when it's broken. The low

3:27:19to the high. That's my structure. The

3:27:21only possible area that could be of

3:27:23interest in this bullish price leg is

3:27:25the fair value gap. There's no fair

3:27:27value gap in here. There's no fair value

3:27:29gap anywhere other than this fair value

3:27:30gap of these order blocks. And you can

3:27:33use the the body closes. So, it looks

3:27:35perfect. It looks hand selected. It

3:27:37looks amazing.

3:27:38like it's just the logic of following

3:27:40the order flow. But you must use the

3:27:43wicks again. You can see it here. Again,

3:27:44we have a low down here. Look at how

3:27:47price doesn't break below that low. It

3:27:49wicks it, comes out, wicks, it comes

3:27:51out, wicks it, comes out, telling us

3:27:54that it doesn't agree that price should

3:27:56be lower than this price leg. It

3:27:57believes that price should be higher

3:27:58than this level. But this is just a

3:28:00pocket of liquidity for price to fish

3:28:01into before we go. And now we're going

3:28:03to look at an actual trade that's

3:28:06aligned with my actual strategy and

3:28:08showcasing the importance of this break.

3:28:10So what you can see right now is we're

3:28:12on the 50-minut time frame. Now if I

3:28:14just pull us back just a little bit

3:28:15before we get any of these moves. This

3:28:17is the 50-minut time frame. This is how

3:28:19everything is looking. Now structurally,

3:28:22you know, we were bullish, we had a

3:28:23range, we had another shift, and then we

3:28:24had a change of character. So we had a

3:28:26higher high, lower low, but then we had

3:28:29another higher high. So at this point in

3:28:30time, we shift back to bullish. So at

3:28:32the moment of luck in this in New York

3:28:34session, we are bullish. We have a swing

3:28:37low down here. We have a swing high up

3:28:40in here. We're expecting higher prices.

3:28:43Then we also have bear in mind we have

3:28:44NFP on this day. So of course I'm not

3:28:46trading it. This is just pre-context.

3:28:48NFP does this. Now for those who don't

3:28:51know NFP, what NFP often times does is

3:28:54it fishes liquidity above highs to

3:28:56collect liquidity to be able to operate

3:28:58in the opposing direction. Unless

3:29:00there's a clear intentional macro reason

3:29:02as to why NFP would do a certain thing,

3:29:04it's all the time going to fish for

3:29:06liquidity in one side and then fish for

3:29:07the liquidity the other side. But notice

3:29:09that we don't get a break above this

3:29:10high. So, we wick it aggressively. And a

3:29:13lot of people think that that means that

3:29:14we should be expecting higher prices.

3:29:16How many people had buy stops above this

3:29:18high as it gets raided? How many people

3:29:20as it gets raided are trying to buy in

3:29:22that move? Until it's been confirmed, it

3:29:25isn't. And so, we have that aggressive

3:29:27low. We close back into the price range.

3:29:29shows us a obvious and clear rejection

3:29:32that the market doesn't agree that price

3:29:34should be above this high at this moment

3:29:35in time. And so what most people do is

3:29:37they use this high and then they use

3:29:40this low and now they have a new high

3:29:42and maybe they're trying to long from

3:29:44here. Maybe they're not right. But if

3:29:46they are trying to long, well, they get

3:29:48into their position, they have a great

3:29:49little move higher. Everything's going

3:29:51well and then they get destroyed. And

3:29:53here's what happens to them. Because now

3:29:55what they do is now they think that

3:29:56they're bearish. And so now they think

3:29:58that they should sell, right? And again,

3:30:01even a broken clock is right twice a

3:30:03day. So doesn't mean that they're every

3:30:05single time going to be incorrect. It

3:30:06just means that trading is about edge.

3:30:08It's about having a consistent edge over

3:30:10the market. Consistent being the key

3:30:12word, not occasional. So we break to the

3:30:13highs, they're bullish. They break to

3:30:15the lows, they're bearish. They're

3:30:16expecting lower prices.

3:30:20Price begins trading off to the sell

3:30:22side. But now, guess what?

3:30:25they are still bearish on price, right?

3:30:28So, we come into the market in London

3:30:30session. So, this is the session that

3:30:32I'm trading, London session, 2 a.m. to 5

3:30:34a.m. EST. This is before the clock

3:30:36changed. They are looking at the market

3:30:37or a lot of people that make this

3:30:38mistake are looking at the market as

3:30:41bearish. I'm not. I understand that this

3:30:44isn't a break. I understand that the

3:30:45structural level is still like this. So,

3:30:47we are bullish to the high. So, I'm

3:30:49looking for long positions. But there

3:30:51are more than just candlestick closures

3:30:52in my strategy. So, I'll walk you

3:30:54through that. Firstly, if you haven't

3:30:55watched any of my videos, I break my

3:30:56strategy down a lot of times. Pretty

3:30:58simple. Overall, we look for a

3:31:00directional bias. So, what direction is

3:31:02the market going to go using market

3:31:03structure? We're bullish. So, I know

3:31:06that in London session, we're bullish

3:31:08right now. I'm expecting to trade

3:31:10higher. That's my expectation. Then, I

3:31:12need areas of interest to trade from.

3:31:13So, in this scenario, the first thing I

3:31:15do is understand liquidity. I understand

3:31:17that we have buy side liquidity, which

3:31:19is amazing because that's liquidity for

3:31:21me to take trade into. I see a lot of

3:31:24sellside liquidity across these lows. We

3:31:26have one low, two lows, three lows, four

3:31:29lows on Asia low on this kind of

3:31:32intermediary uh New York PM session,

3:31:34lunch session low of the previous day.

3:31:37So what I don't want to do is get

3:31:39trapped like most of the market by

3:31:41chasing going long at London open

3:31:44because there is a lot of stop- losses

3:31:46below this low and the entire purpose of

3:31:49the market is going to gravitate to

3:31:51collect orders. That is how the market

3:31:53maker makes money. It needs liquidity.

3:31:55It needs to facilitate orders. So I do

3:31:58not want to get trapped. So I need to

3:32:00look at something that is below this

3:32:02low. That's when I can start looking at

3:32:03areas of interest. Now for me to get an

3:32:05area of interest, I'm looking at a

3:32:06couple different things. Sometimes it's

3:32:08clean and beautiful. Sometimes it isn't.

3:32:09So I'm looking at these ranges in price,

3:32:11right? You kind of have these ranges

3:32:14before you get the aggression. So you

3:32:16have from this low to this high. That is

3:32:19a range. But we have something

3:32:20interesting. We have midnight open.

3:32:24Actually, the clock's went back. So, the

3:32:25midnight open is here. We have midnight

3:32:28open and we also have a very small and

3:32:31picture perfect order block. Now, I'm

3:32:33not a fan for picture perfect. I don't

3:32:35think the market ever operates picture

3:32:36perfect, but in this scenario, it is. We

3:32:38have a picture perfect order block. We

3:32:40have true day open and we have this

3:32:42range in here. So, pretty much I'm

3:32:44looking for a run into these lows or

3:32:46into these lows or into these lows, a

3:32:48reaction and trade long. That's what I'm

3:32:50looking for. Now, I don't get into my

3:32:52positions just by risk entering. I don't

3:32:55like to set my position just like this

3:32:58and then put my stop loss where here,

3:33:00here, here, here. Doesn't make sense to

3:33:02me. I like confirmation. So, what I do

3:33:04is when price gets into my areas of

3:33:05interest, I have a directional bias. I

3:33:08expect price to go in this direction. I

3:33:10have an area of interest. If price gets

3:33:12into this level, then I will take a

3:33:14deeper look at it. When it gets into

3:33:15these levels, I go to a one minute time

3:33:18frame because remember how we just

3:33:20looked and kind of understood the

3:33:22concept of the order book. Yeah. Well,

3:33:25it's the same thing. If I go to the one

3:33:26minute time frame, I understand what's

3:33:28really going on right now inside of the

3:33:30order flow. I already have my higher

3:33:32time frame understanding. Now, I need to

3:33:35understand the specific details. What I

3:33:37like to see is seller absorption. When

3:33:40price comes into my area, it usually

3:33:42comes in bearish because I like to play

3:33:44continuations. I don't like to trade

3:33:46breakouts. I trade continuations. So

3:33:47when price comes back into my areas,

3:33:49it's usually bearish. So when it gets

3:33:51into my area, I want to see seller

3:33:53absorptions. What is that? You have an

3:33:56area. Price is aggressively bearish

3:33:58coming into your area. But once it gets

3:33:59in there, all of the sellers get

3:34:02absorbed by buyers. You start to see

3:34:04some stagnation and then you get a

3:34:07reaction. So what it means is sellers

3:34:10try to over dominate this area but they

3:34:12can't get past the kind of roadblock the

3:34:15block that buyers put in this area to

3:34:17protect it. And eventually what they do

3:34:18is they stop taking shots. And when they

3:34:22stop taking shots at this area now it's

3:34:25easier for anyone who's buying to push

3:34:28price up because as we looked at the

3:34:29order book there isn't as many orders

3:34:32and so the market is able to flow higher

3:34:35easier. That is what I'm looking for.

3:34:37I'm looking for absorption from buyers

3:34:40to sellers and then a flip from sellers

3:34:43being in control to buyers. And so you

3:34:45can see we're in our area now and we're

3:34:47starting to get that absorption. If we

3:34:49go back to the 15-minute and we kind of

3:34:51put our area of interest back in this

3:34:52level, kind of this entire region price

3:34:55is aggressively bearish. It comes in and

3:34:57then we start slowing down because now

3:34:59we're getting seller absorption, right?

3:35:01Aggressively bearish starts slowing

3:35:03down. But slowing down isn't enough for

3:35:06me. I need to see a shift. So you can

3:35:07see here we run this low. We don't break

3:35:11it, but it's enough to understand that

3:35:12price traded below it. If we can get a

3:35:14run on this high, that for me would be

3:35:16good confirmation that the order flow

3:35:18shifted. Again, you can see seller

3:35:20absorption and then sellers step back

3:35:22into the market. So why would I ever

3:35:24want to be trying to buy if sellers are

3:35:27still in control? Doesn't make sense for

3:35:28me. So I would sit and I would wait. And

3:35:32then you can see we get a reaction from

3:35:34buyers. And this that's occurring right

3:35:36here, this entire thing really is an

3:35:38absorption, right? We're absorbing

3:35:39orders and then what happens? Aggressive

3:35:42buying momentum. Sellers stop trying to

3:35:45attack this level. And when they stop

3:35:47trying to attack, it allows the buy side

3:35:49to take over. Now it's confirmed. Now

3:35:52the present moment order flow is in

3:35:53control. So I can go to a 5minut time

3:35:55frame. I can go to a 50-minut time

3:35:56frame. And pretty much I can just

3:35:58identify the area of interest. It's the

3:36:01same thing. I'm looking for, you know,

3:36:02the sell to buy if it's not too large of

3:36:04a stop size. If it is, I'll look to kind

3:36:06of refine it. So, how large is our stop

3:36:08size? Stop size is 17 and 12 pips. Me, I

3:36:12would rather go for something smaller.

3:36:14You look at longing from in here. Look

3:36:15at protecting your downside. 11 and 1

3:36:17half pip stops. It's not too bad. And

3:36:20then, what are you looking for? Really

3:36:22and truly, you're just looking for the

3:36:23swing low. All I'm looking for is

3:36:25orderflow continuation. We're bullish.

3:36:29I'm expecting another leg, but attention

3:36:32to detail, understanding I don't get

3:36:33trapped by these fake wicks. I don't get

3:36:36trapped by these inducements. And so, we

3:36:39go to a kind of 15-minut time frame,

3:36:40kind of see how it plays out, because

3:36:42what you'll notice is we get an

3:36:44aggressive move, but we haven't breached

3:36:46the high. So, this trade is still

3:36:48technically on. We have overlap and fair

3:36:50value gap in this area as well. And so,

3:36:53that's pretty much it. You can continue

3:36:54watching price play out. Now notice that

3:36:56there was no news right in this area.

3:37:00This very sharp aggressive open in New

3:37:03York session tags straight into the

3:37:06trade that there was no news. It it was

3:37:07pretty wild. But such an aggressive move

3:37:09like that with at least no news, no red

3:37:11folder news or anything like that uh but

3:37:13perfectly into this area and then

3:37:15trading out of it again. It's almost too

3:37:17good to be true. I want to say perfect

3:37:19understand of the market, but I'm not

3:37:20going to make out like I'm a genius. I

3:37:23just have an edge and the edge plays out

3:37:25enough for me to make money. And so we

3:37:27invalidate the fair value gaps. We

3:37:29respect them. We respect the order block

3:37:30and we continue trading higher until

3:37:32eventually and it does take some while

3:37:37because you can see after we do get the

3:37:38reaction price does start kind of

3:37:40rounding back down into this area. Asia

3:37:43opens a little bit kind of round uh

3:37:46rangebound. Now London's beginning to

3:37:48open. We have a manipulation on south

3:37:51side of Asia and then aggressive move

3:37:53out of London and we take out the key

3:37:55level, right? The key old high, the old

Fair Value Gap

3:37:58daily high.

3:38:01The fair value [music] gap is one of the

3:38:03most powerful trading concepts in all of

3:38:06trading. And yet, it's also one of the

3:38:08easiest to get wrong. I see so many

3:38:11traders try to master the fair value gap

3:38:14and yet most of them fail. Starting with

3:38:17part one, what actually is the fair

3:38:20value gap? You see, 99% of traders who

3:38:23try to trade smart money concepts

3:38:25actually fail. And smart money concepts

3:38:28traders are literally being laughed at

3:38:29and actually called dumb money traders.

3:38:32And so, the thing that separates the 1%

3:38:35from everybody else who fails is

3:38:37understanding real context. You see,

3:38:40smart money concepts is just

3:38:42institutional level concepts

3:38:46rewarded, repackaged for retail. The

3:38:49problem, however, is that retail traders

3:38:51just think that it's pattern

3:38:52recognition. The real traders understand

3:38:55[music] context, a narrative. That's

3:38:58what I want to explain to you in this

3:38:59video. So, a market is always trying to

3:39:02trade at fair value. What is fair value?

3:39:05Simply put, fair value or efficient

3:39:08pricing is an area of price where lots

3:39:11of trades can be executed. So if we look

3:39:14on the chart right here, you can see

3:39:15that this is the New York session here,

3:39:17Friday the 24th of October. This is the

3:39:20start of New York session on Euro

3:39:22dollar. You notice here that we have a

3:39:24kind of rangebound price delivery before

3:39:27a very aggressive move towards the

3:39:29upside. Well, this rangebound price

3:39:32delivery is what would be considered as

3:39:34efficient or fair value pricing. What we

3:39:38can see is a lot of transactions get

3:39:40traded at this level. How do we know

3:39:42that? Well, we can just simply use the

3:39:45volume profile. So, we want to get the

3:39:47volume that was traded from the

3:39:49beginning of this New York session to up

3:39:51until where we are right now, which is

3:39:538:45. Now you'll notice here on the

3:39:56right hand side we have the total volume

3:39:59traded at each price level. So you can

3:40:00see the bulk of the volume is traded

3:40:03right here which congregates to this

3:40:06area in here. So what many people fail

3:40:09to understand is that a lot of the times

3:40:12most of the liquidity most of the

3:40:14trading volume is happening in the

3:40:16ranges of price and then notice we have

3:40:18this huge aggressive move toward the

3:40:21upside when we have CPI data come out.

3:40:23But notice something interesting that

3:40:25when this move starts taking off to the

3:40:28height of the level, notice that we have

3:40:30this huge gap in volume. Simply put,

3:40:34there was so little volume traded at

3:40:37this level compared to such a small

3:40:39range here. And yet price exploded

3:40:42towards the buy side. And then you can

3:40:43see that volume comes back into the

3:40:45market after this move has occurred. And

3:40:48then we start trading at this level. Now

3:40:50what is actually going on here? This is

3:40:53real inefficient pricing. So there's two

3:40:56ways to break this down. The first and

3:40:57most important thing that you must

3:40:59understand is that a fair value gap or

3:41:02commonly known in the institutional

3:41:03world as a market inefficiency is

3:41:06essentially an area of price where there

3:41:08is extremely low volume but we still

3:41:11have a movement towards the upside. What

3:41:13that means is that the aggressive buyers

3:41:15at this price point here has controlled

3:41:18price so aggressively toward the buy

3:41:20side and simply put there wasn't many

3:41:24passive sellers in this price point. So

3:41:27essentially very very few market

3:41:28participants specifically sellers at

3:41:31this price leg. Therefore a very small

3:41:34amount of volume was able to drastically

3:41:37change the current value of this market.

3:41:41Now a deeper detail for this specific

3:41:43fair value gap is that this was created

3:41:46from CPI. So what actually happens when

3:41:49you have these high impact news events

3:41:50is that market makers are able to

3:41:53legally pull their liquidity from the

3:41:55market. Now a very brief overview of

3:41:57what a market maker is. A market maker

3:41:59is somebody in the order book who

3:42:01provides liquidity on both the buy and

3:42:03sell side pretty much at most price

3:42:05levels so that other traders can get

3:42:07filled on their transactions. And then

3:42:10this market maker is rewarded by taking

3:42:13the spread. That's how market makers

3:42:15make money. Now a market maker for

3:42:17example is a citadel. Citadel actually

3:42:20makes most markets. It actually has a

3:42:22very high total volume of the overall

3:42:25market making. It's one of its largest

3:42:27kind of arms of its business. So those

3:42:29market makers are able to come out of

3:42:32the market at that price point and

3:42:34remove their liquidity from the order

3:42:35book. When that liquidity gets removed

3:42:37from the order book, it makes it very

3:42:39easy for a small amount of aggressive

3:42:41buyers at that time to push price higher

3:42:45and very fast because there is so few

3:42:47passive sellers at that price point. And

3:42:50that's the way an order book works. Now,

3:42:51what happens after that fact is that

3:42:54there is this gap, right? And from a

3:42:57technical standpoint and how most people

3:42:59view a fair value gap or an inefficiency

3:43:02is with a three candle formation. So

3:43:05what you want to see is you want to see

3:43:08a an aggressive candle is usually the

3:43:10first one and a kind of explosive candle

3:43:12but it's a three candle formation. So we

3:43:14have candle number one in here and then

3:43:17we have candle number two up here

3:43:22right and then we have candle number

3:43:24three which is here. So if I remove this

3:43:27gap for a second those are our three

3:43:29candles. Now what you will do is you

3:43:31will take in a bullish example the high

3:43:33of candle one and the low of candle

3:43:37three. Notice that they do not touch.

3:43:40This third candle in here and this first

3:43:42candle in here do not meet. That is

3:43:44essentially the potential for

3:43:46inefficient pricing or what you could

3:43:48call a fair value gap. So you would

3:43:50simply mark the first candle high and

3:43:52the third candle low and that area right

3:43:56there would be your fair value gap. And

3:43:59to confirm that level, simply just

3:44:01understand the total volume that was

3:44:02traded at this level and you will see

3:44:04that there is a huge gap essentially in

3:44:08the overall volume. That gap is

3:44:10inefficient pricing. Now the theory is

3:44:13is that price will want to trade back

3:44:16into this price leg at some point to

3:44:19essentially offer price or reoffer price

3:44:22at this price leg because again price

3:44:25has skipped a beat. So imagine if you

3:44:28are a buyer or a seller in the market

3:44:30and you actually wanted to buy or sell

3:44:32at this level. You just wasn't actually

3:44:34available at that time or maybe your

3:44:36orders actually didn't get triggered

3:44:38because there were so few other orders

3:44:40in the order book. Let's say you were a

3:44:42passive buyer but there was no sellside

3:44:44liquidity. So essentially what happens a

3:44:46lot of the time is there's a lot of

3:44:49traders that were not filled at these

3:44:52prices that may may have wanted to get

3:44:54filled at those prices. So a lot of the

3:44:56times price will regravitate back toward

3:44:58this level and a lot of the times close

3:45:01at least half or sometimes even the

3:45:03whole gap of price which is essentially

3:45:06price just reoffering at that price

3:45:08seeen as though many traders were not

3:45:10able to transact at that level. There

3:45:12were so few trades transacted at that

3:45:14level the market wants to reoffer price

3:45:17at that level. Very very simple. So

3:45:19that's why a lot of the times you'll see

3:45:20these these gaps, right? And you want to

3:45:22validate them with understanding what

3:45:24the actual volume at that price level

3:45:26is. That is a fair value gap. Now into

3:45:29part two, I'm going to reveal to you how

3:45:31to actually understand when to trade

3:45:34fair value gaps and what fair value gap

3:45:36to trade. As we look at the market here,

3:45:39I'll be honest, we can see that there

3:45:41are literally hundreds of fair value

3:45:44gaps that occur on any kind of one given

3:45:46daily basis depending on what time frame

3:45:48you're looking at. Now, why is it then

3:45:50that so few of them actually hold? I

3:45:54mean, if we just literally look at this

3:45:55market right now, you will see so many

3:45:56fair value gaps and you'll see some hold

3:45:59and some not hold. The thing is is there

3:46:01are distinct tells of whether a fair

3:46:04value gap is really a fair value gap

3:46:06that price will hold and that's what I

3:46:08want to break down to you right now. So

3:46:10essentially we just spoke about this

3:46:12fair value gap that was created from CPI

3:46:14on Friday the 24th of October right

3:46:16which is a couple of days ago as of

3:46:18recording this. Now notice that we have

3:46:21this fair value gap and actually me and

3:46:23my live trading members some of us took

3:46:26these trades from here literally just

3:46:28trading back into this fair value gap

3:46:29because we knew that the likelihood is

3:46:31is that gap is going to get filled. Now

3:46:33notice when I come into the market

3:46:35today, right, Monday the 27th of

3:46:38October, this is how the session looks.

3:46:40This is how price actually looks, right?

3:46:41We have yesterday, we have the Friday's

3:46:44price leg. We come into the end of

3:46:46Friday, we have this range. Notice as

3:46:48well, right, that this range here makes

3:46:51up the majority of the total volume,

3:46:54right? So don't be confused. Ranges

3:46:56don't equal low volume and big moves

3:46:58equal high volume. That's not

3:47:00necessarily true. So, we have this right

3:47:02here. Now, there's a couple telltale

3:47:04signs of how I was able to catch this

3:47:07trade this morning that still hasn't

3:47:08fully completed, but I'll break it down

3:47:10anyway. So, we want to identify the best

3:47:13fair value gap to trade. Now, notice

3:47:16here that we had this fair value gap and

3:47:19notice that the majority of that fair

3:47:21value gap has been filled. Now, most

3:47:23traders, if they didn't have the volume

3:47:25profile, would actually think that this

3:47:27fair value gap is essentially just now

3:47:29finished, right? It's useless. But if

3:47:31you look carefully, you'll see that this

3:47:33candle right here, the first candle that

3:47:36initiated this move, still hasn't been

3:47:38traded into yet. And so from the lowest

3:47:40point that we come, which is literally

3:47:42right here, you can see that there's

3:47:44still actually a fair value gap here.

3:47:46And if you slide this fair value gap

3:47:48across, notice what we have on the

3:47:50overall volume. We have a very low

3:47:53volume area, which is essentially a

3:47:56market inefficiency. And so if we just

3:47:58look at this overall area, we mark out a

3:48:00fair value gap and we have this

3:48:03inefficiency. This is the first sign of

3:48:07a good fair value gap. Right? The second

3:48:11sign of a good fair value gap is the

3:48:13overall trend of price. This is the most

3:48:16important and honestly most simple. If

3:48:19we look at the directional kind of bias

3:48:22of this market, we are very clearly

3:48:24bullish, right? We were in this

3:48:26downtrend. and we're putting in lower

3:48:27lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower

3:48:29highs, lower lows. And then eventually

3:48:31this is my kind of swing high. We take

3:48:34out this high and we become bullish,

3:48:36right? So we're actually bullish coming

3:48:39into today. That's the most important

3:48:41thing. You have to understand what's the

3:48:42likelihood of price trading higher or

3:48:46lower in this one session. And the key

3:48:48telltale sign of what that is is going

3:48:50to be your market structure. So the

3:48:52second key after identifying the actual

3:48:55validated fair value gap from the volume

3:48:58inefficiency is the overall trend of

3:49:00price. You have to trade in alignment

3:49:03with the [clears throat] overall

3:49:04direction of price. Point blank period.

3:49:06It's a complete non-negotiable. You will

3:49:08be surprised at how many people try to

3:49:09short when the market is bullish. And

3:49:11it's very evident like if you look at

3:49:13the fair value gaps that come to the

3:49:16left when we're trending bullish,

3:49:18right? You can see in here we have all

3:49:23of these bearish fair value gaps that

3:49:26are getting formed

3:49:28at these price points and eventually all

3:49:32of them get traded through because fair

3:49:35value gaps are great but they have to be

3:49:37traded in alignment with understanding

3:49:40the overall context of price. So when

3:49:42I'm coming into the market today the

3:49:44first thing honestly that I'm looking

3:49:45for is low to high bullish. Okay, second

3:49:50thing point of interest which is my fair

3:49:53value gap in here which I've just

3:49:55explained to you. Now another thing and

3:49:58a very important thing is liquidity

3:50:00right? So notice here that on these lows

3:50:02we have equal lows down here we have an

3:50:05old low down here. Now these equal lows

3:50:08this old low here represents to me

3:50:10liquidity. We have Asia low as well. So

3:50:12for me all the time I need to see a

3:50:15liquidation of price. What I like to see

3:50:17is I like to see liquidity get built at

3:50:19a certain price leg and then sweep that

3:50:22liquidity into my point of interest. So,

3:50:24I like to see price sweep into a point

3:50:27of interest. That's the third thing. And

3:50:29the second part of the third thing is

3:50:31liquidity to target, right? Liquidity to

3:50:34take, liquidity to target. You've heard

3:50:36me say it before. Liquidity to take down

3:50:38here on the sell side. Liquidity to

3:50:40target is the high of the previous week.

3:50:44It's the high of the previous day. It's

3:50:47the high of the Friday session. It's the

3:50:50high of New York session. And we have

3:50:53Asia high here creating an relative

3:50:56equal high across here. So this is a

3:50:59very very obvious point that price will

3:51:02want to revisit. And so this trade setup

3:51:04becomes literally super simple to me.

3:51:07Now if I didn't have these, right, if I

3:51:09just had a fair value gap or just a fair

3:51:11value gap, I wouldn't know which way to

3:51:14go. Right? There's fair value gaps in

3:51:16here. Should I trade those? Should I

3:51:17trade these fair value gaps? What about

3:51:18these ones? Right? Just understanding

3:51:21fair value gap and seeing them in the

3:51:23market isn't enough. You have to have

3:51:25context. And so for me, the context is

3:51:27the direction of price, right? Bullish

3:51:30is the the low volume in here, the

3:51:34context of what this move represents,

3:51:37the liquidity that we're going to take

3:51:38out on the way, and the liquidity that

3:51:41we're going to target. So trend

3:51:43verification of a fair value gap plus

3:51:46the top level in here. that makes an

3:51:49actual good fair value gap.

5 Rule SMC Strategy

3:51:54To make money consistently in trading,

3:51:56you need a trading strategy that is

3:51:58repeatable, [music] systematic, so it's

3:52:01rule-based and very simple to understand

3:52:03and easy to use. In this video today,

3:52:05I'm going to break down with you my

3:52:07trading strategy. And this is a strategy

3:52:09that I've used for the past 4 years. I

3:52:12have all of the data for the strategy

3:52:13that I'm going to share with you in just

3:52:14a moment. It's also the trading strategy

3:52:16that hundreds of my students have used

3:52:18to go on and take crazy amounts of

3:52:20payouts. So, what you're seeing on

3:52:22screen now is the trade that we're going

3:52:24to be breaking down at the end of this

3:52:27video. It's the trade that I took. It's

3:52:29the trade that many of my inner circle

3:52:31students took. On the right hand side,

3:52:32you'll see fivestep SMC strategy and

3:52:34you'll see the five rules of my system.

3:52:37I'm going to be breaking down each of

3:52:38these rules and then at the end, we're

3:52:39going to take all of our rules and

3:52:41follow them step by step till we have a

3:52:43trading strategy that is working. Now,

3:52:44just before we dive into my five rules

3:52:47for this strategy, I need to tell you

3:52:48something that I wish someone had told

3:52:50me six years ago when I started trading.

3:52:51A trading strategy alone will not make

3:52:54you money. There are more important

3:52:55things than trading strategy. Because

3:52:57the reality is there are millions of

3:52:59traders that have a strategy that works

3:53:01but still aren't able to make money from

3:53:03trading. In fact, [music] the reality is

3:53:04is you've probably seen trading

3:53:05strategies that already work, but you

3:53:07still don't make money from trading. And

3:53:09that's because there are [music] more

3:53:10important things than strategy that I

3:53:12want to break down for you. So again,

3:53:14I'll leave the link in the description.

3:53:15[music] It's free. Enjoy. And now I'm

3:53:17going to show you the data to prove

3:53:18that. So here I am in my Tradzella and I

3:53:21want to share with you my playbooks.

3:53:23This is the strategy I'm going to be

3:53:24sharing with you today is the intraday

3:53:26bias model, right? It's my best

3:53:27performing strategy. You can see here

3:53:28I've taken 230 trades. This starts at

3:53:31the beginning of 2023. So from 2023 up

3:53:35to today, 2025, 230 trades, 216%

3:53:40return, right? So, we're averaging over

3:53:42I believe it's like over 10% a month

3:53:44with this model traded perfectly. You

3:53:46can see here all of the data on the

3:53:48model. If I go into here, you can see

3:53:51these are the stats of the trade, right?

3:53:53You can see from the beginning of 2023,

3:53:55very healthy equity curve. You can see

3:53:56day win rate. You can see trades taken,

3:53:59win rate of the system. A huge

3:54:00misconception is I have a 33% win rate.

3:54:02People think that that's a bad thing.

3:54:03People just don't understand trading.

3:54:05Win rate alone is useless. You need win

3:54:07rate plus average risk-to-reward. You

3:54:09can see here I have a 6.23 average win

3:54:12to- loss ratio. Meaning for every one

3:54:14trade I lose, on average I win 6.23,

3:54:19right? So if I risk $1,000, then on

3:54:22average I will make 6.23 times my loss,

3:54:26right? Which my risk, which is $1,000.

3:54:28Yeah, this is all the data. Really don't

3:54:30need to go into too much detail about

3:54:31it. It's years and years of data with

3:54:33one model. And now we're going to show

3:54:35you exactly what that model is. So let's

3:54:37dive in. So my first rule is directional

3:54:39bias and essentially what directional

3:54:40bias means my primary objective when I

3:54:43come into the market is I need to

3:54:44understand which direction is the market

3:54:46going to trade in and then I need to

3:54:47trade with that direction. It's very

3:54:49simple market trend and you want to

3:54:50trade with that trend. It's the oldest

3:54:52saying in the book right the trend is

3:54:53your friend. But the reality is is you

3:54:54will make the most money when you trade

3:54:55with the direction the market is heading

3:54:57towards. But you need a way to

3:54:58understand what that direction is. So

3:55:00step one simple directional bias. Very

3:55:03very simple to understand to be totally

3:55:04honest with you. The market moves in

3:55:06phases, right? We have bullish phases,

3:55:09right? So, we have these kind of

3:55:11expansion phases. We have consolidation

3:55:13phases, right? And then we have bearish

3:55:16expansion phases. All you need to do is

3:55:18understand the external swing points of

3:55:21structure and use those as your

3:55:22directional anchor. It simply means just

3:55:25find the areas of price where we see

3:55:28reversals. So, you can see here price

3:55:30puts in a high and then we reverse from

3:55:32this high. We put in this low. We

3:55:34reverse from this low. We put in a new

3:55:35high. We reverse from this high. We put

3:55:38in a new low. We reverse from this low.

3:55:39We put in a new high. All of the

3:55:41reversal points. It's that simple. And

3:55:43that is what makes up your market

3:55:45structure. And it's a very simple thing

3:55:46that if your swing points are getting

3:55:50progressively higher, then the market is

3:55:52bullish and you want to look for longs.

3:55:54It's really that simple. When you get

3:55:56this high, at this point, you want to

3:55:58wait for price to start coming back and

3:56:00you want to identify this area here and

3:56:02you want to buy from that level. And I'm

3:56:04going to show you exactly how you do

3:56:05that. But that is literally how simple

3:56:06it is. Again, it needs to be stupidly

3:56:08simple. So many traders are over

3:56:10complicating trading today. And that's

3:56:11the reason that so many traders are

3:56:13failing because they think it should be

3:56:14complicated. Something that I struggled

3:56:16with when I simplified my trading, I

3:56:18became so much more profitable so much

3:56:19faster. Eventually, what happens is

3:56:21after we've had a period of, you know,

3:56:23aggressive expansion, right? or

3:56:25contraction. At some point in time,

3:56:26you'll kind of meet an area of

3:56:28consolidation. That's where price goes

3:56:30into this little bit of a choppy range

3:56:31where it's kind of undecided. Maybe you

3:56:33spend a couple of days between, let's

3:56:35say, we have a low down here and a high

3:56:37up here, right? And then price is just

3:56:39kind of spending its time not breaking

3:56:41out of the highs, but also not breaking

3:56:42out of the lows, right? This is an area

3:56:44where there's a lot of fair value

3:56:46created. When you see price trading at

3:56:49the same level and not really breaking

3:56:50out of a high or breaking out of a low,

3:56:52what it means is that buyers and sellers

3:56:53are pretty much in agreement that price

3:56:55should be at this level at this given

3:56:57time. And so a lot of volume gets traded

3:56:59at these areas because again both

3:57:02parties are mutually agreeing that this

3:57:04is a fair value for price. These are the

3:57:05areas that again they're uncertain

3:57:07areas. These are the areas you really

3:57:09want to be avoiding. At least for me in

3:57:10this strategy, I don't want to trade in

3:57:12these consolidative areas unless I can

3:57:14identify the swing areas. Usually what

3:57:16you see is after some type of range,

3:57:18right? We'll maybe get a continuation

3:57:20which is possible. You may also get a

3:57:22reversal. A reversal is essentially we

3:57:24had a low here that put in this high

3:57:26which is higher. So what happens is

3:57:28every time that we put in a new high,

3:57:30right, we go low high, we pull back, we

3:57:32go higher high. So when we break this

3:57:34old high, right, that becomes a breaker

3:57:36structure. Now what happens is this low

3:57:39that broke that high and the high that

3:57:42gets created that's now your range. And

3:57:44then price comes back, puts in a new

3:57:47higher low, and then when it breaks

3:57:49above that high, that again is a

3:57:51breakoff structure. And so that becomes

3:57:53your new range. Now you have this low

3:57:55here to this high. And you're expecting

3:57:58that price is probably going to come

3:57:59back down a little bit and then trade

3:58:00above this high. Plain and simple. Now,

3:58:02what ends up happening a lot of the

3:58:04times at some point in time, you will

3:58:06have a reversal, which I refer to as a

3:58:08change of character, right? Think of

3:58:10character as a bull and a bear. two

3:58:13characters of the market. The bull

3:58:15represents increase in price, higher

3:58:17prices. The bear represents decrease in

3:58:19prices, lower prices. When you have a

3:58:20change of character, that's essentially

3:58:22saying that the bull was in control,

3:58:24price was increasing, and then the

3:58:26character shifts and now the bear is in

3:58:27control, price is decreasing. Very, very

3:58:29simple stuff. So, we have a change of

3:58:31character and that happens when the low

3:58:34that put in the most recent high is

3:58:37broken and traded through. And so

3:58:39instead of having a higher low and a

3:58:41higher high, we actually end up getting

3:58:43a lower low. So this low right here is

3:58:45lower than the previous low. That is a

3:58:47change of character. At that point,

3:58:48price has likely shifted bearish. And so

3:58:50what do you think you're looking for?

3:58:51You're looking for sells, right? It's

3:58:53really that simple. You're just looking

3:58:54to sell the market. At that point, you

3:58:56go lower low, probably lower high, and

3:58:58then lower low, right? Break of

3:59:00structure, lower low, lower high, lower

3:59:03low, break of structure. And now you're

3:59:06in a trend. And now this is your swing

3:59:08high. So you want to sell as long as

3:59:10price stays below that low. This is your

3:59:11swing low. When you sell, you want to

3:59:14trade into that low. You only trade on

3:59:16the pullback. So when price starts

3:59:17coming back up here, you patiently wait

3:59:20for your time to enter, which I'm going

3:59:22to tell you what that is in step five.

3:59:23And then when that signal occurs, you

3:59:26try to trade short. And you trade short

3:59:28toward this low. That is literally the

3:59:30strategy. There's a few minor details

3:59:31and things I need to explain that makes

3:59:33it better to understand, but in short,

3:59:35that's a strategy. I mean, we're selling

3:59:37a bearish market and we're buying a

3:59:39bullish market with a very simple

3:59:40reversal model. So, that's step one.

3:59:42Now, the reality is is that the market

3:59:44doesn't always look that clean, right? A

3:59:46lot of the times you'll have price

3:59:47action like this because it's easy for

3:59:50someone to say, "Yeah, just buy the

3:59:51bullish trend." The problem that, you

3:59:53know, 99% of traders have is they don't

3:59:56really know how to identify the trend.

3:59:59They're looking for these swing points,

4:00:00but most of the time they're choosing

4:00:01the wrong ones. And the reason for that

4:00:03is because the market isn't as simple as

4:00:05the diagram that I just showed you. In

4:00:07fact, the market a lot of the times

4:00:08looks more like this. And for some

4:00:11reason, for most people, this is often

4:00:13times confusing. But I'm going to

4:00:14simplify it for you right now. You can

4:00:16see here we start with the low, right?

4:00:19Price trades higher and then we put in a

4:00:20high. So at that point, we have our set

4:00:22points. We have a low down here and we

4:00:25have a high up in here, right? Let's

4:00:27already assume that we are bullish,

4:00:28right? So let's just assume that this

4:00:30was the price action. We broke structure

4:00:33toward the buy side. So, we were

4:00:34bullish. So, now what we have is we have

4:00:36the low that's in control is here. The

4:00:39high that's in control is here and we're

4:00:41bullish. The directional bias is

4:00:43bullish. That's what we're looking for.

4:00:45Now, what happens to a lot of traders

4:00:47for one reason or another is they start

4:00:49using this in here, this structure. And

4:00:52what they see is they see that these

4:00:53structure prices, and I'm going to show

4:00:55you this in the actual live market in a

4:00:56moment, but for some reason, they see

4:00:58these structural levels. price puts in a

4:01:00low, puts in a high here. Oh, okay. Now

4:01:03we have a lower low and they look at

4:01:04this and they try to trade this internal

4:01:06structure. And so they're trying to sell

4:01:08here, but when in reality price is still

4:01:10bullish. And so people get confused with

4:01:11these structure points and you need to

4:01:13understand which one is which. And so my

4:01:15framework of thinking is very simple.

4:01:18You have a swing low, you have a swing

4:01:20high. As long as price is inside of this

4:01:22box, it's internal structure. So when

4:01:24price breaks these structure points, we

4:01:26don't try to short. We're waiting for

4:01:28confirmation to go long. Eventually, at

4:01:30some point in time, price breaks above

4:01:32this high. Right? That's a break of

4:01:33structure. Now, with the same box that

4:01:35you had to understand what the internal

4:01:37structure was

4:01:39when we break that high and then that

4:01:41high begins to produce a reversal like

4:01:43this. Now, we need to identify our swing

4:01:45low. And all we have to do is go into

4:01:48the box and find the lowest point before

4:01:50the expansion. And that's our swing

4:01:52point. And so, that right there becomes

4:01:54our swing low. And so, now we have a new

4:01:55structural leg. We have swing low down

4:01:58here and we have swing high up here. And

4:02:00the same thing is true. We are just

4:02:01expecting higher prices. But the problem

4:02:03is is again for some reason is okay sure

4:02:06maybe you're not the type of trader that

4:02:07trades this structure, right? Cuz it's

4:02:09it's simple to you. You see bullish and

4:02:12still bullish. Maybe you're the type of

4:02:13trader then that in this expansion phase

4:02:16like this when price comes below this

4:02:19low, you now think that we've shifted

4:02:21bearish, right? A lot of traders do this

4:02:23as well. They think that this is a

4:02:24change of character. And what happens

4:02:25unfortunately is when they see this as a

4:02:28change of character, they try to start,

4:02:30you know, shorting the market and they

4:02:32try to start shorting the market, you

4:02:34know, highs in here or highs in here and

4:02:37trying to trade lower. But the truth is

4:02:39is price is bullish, right? So you're on

4:02:41the wrong side of the market. And I

4:02:42think personally the number one mistake

4:02:44that traders make is not understanding

4:02:46which direction the market's going to

4:02:48trade into. If you can understand that,

4:02:49you're good. And so this isn't a change

4:02:51of character. It's just a liquidation.

4:02:53Why? because the swing low is down here.

4:02:57Here's the low. So, if this low gets

4:02:59taken out, we're still bullish because

4:03:01we're bullish until this low gets

4:03:02broken. So, that's the reason that, you

4:03:04know, most people don't understand

4:03:05directional bias is because they get

4:03:07stuck in these internal levels. And I'll

4:03:08show you this right now in the actual

4:03:10market. So, you can see that we're

4:03:12bullish,

4:03:14right? At this point in time, you're

4:03:16expecting higher prices. Now, what

4:03:17happens is we end up shifting these lows

4:03:20and so we become bearish, which is no

4:03:22big deal. That happens a lot. the time

4:03:24after a long bullish run would become

4:03:26bearish. We have a change of character.

4:03:27So now we are looking for shorts. It's

4:03:30very simple. Our swing high is here and

4:03:33our swing low is here. Right? Both of

4:03:35the reversal points. This is the high.

4:03:37Price reversed. It met this low. Price

4:03:39reversed. So we're bearish. So that's

4:03:42our swing high in here. This is our

4:03:45swing low. We are just expecting price

4:03:48to take out this low as long as it

4:03:50remains below this high. It's that

4:03:52simple. replay price,

4:03:58you will see that now we have broken

4:04:00below that low. And so again, remember

4:04:02the box method, right? If we have from

4:04:04this high in here to this low down here

4:04:06and we just draw it across, everything

4:04:07inside of this box was internal until we

4:04:10broke the low, we have to find the

4:04:11highest point before price breaks this

4:04:13low, which is where, which is right

4:04:15here, right? The high of this Asia

4:04:17session. So now we have the swing high

4:04:19that breaks the swing low. So that's a

4:04:20breaker structure. And now we're

4:04:22starting to see this low produce a

4:04:23reversal. Now it's definitely a

4:04:25reversal. So this is our swing low down

4:04:28here. Again, what are we expecting? This

4:04:30is our high.

4:04:33This is our low. We're just expecting

4:04:35price to trade toward this low and

4:04:38remain below that high. That's our bias,

4:04:41right? We can see here is that price

4:04:43reaches this high, fails to break above

4:04:46that high.

4:04:49again fails to break above that high

4:04:51again and then has the aggressive

4:04:53sell-off and then we break this low

4:04:55break of structure. So now what we have

4:04:57is new structure, right? We have our

4:05:00swing here because we're creating equal

4:05:02highs. It's basically the same area of

4:05:04structure. So now what we have is we

4:05:07have a new swing range. We have the low

4:05:10down here and we have obviously the high

4:05:12up here. So it's the same thing again.

4:05:14We've had the reversal. We're just

4:05:16expecting that price will revisit these

4:05:18lows and that's our readon structure.

4:05:20And all of this time I'm just trying to

4:05:22short the market providing that the

4:05:23other steps of the system align which

4:05:26we'll get into. So again we can see that

4:05:28this was our swing high. We had our

4:05:30swing low down here. What happens? Price

4:05:33comes back up to here before eventually

4:05:37selling off and what taking out the low.

4:05:40So then what happens? Price begins to

4:05:42reverse. So now we have what? new swing

4:05:45structure, right? We have a swing high

4:05:47because it's the highest point before

4:05:48the break. And then we have our swing

4:05:52low, high low, price comes back up, we

4:05:57start trading back down. Now, this for

4:05:58me is not a break because it is just a

4:06:01wick. It has to break below that low.

4:06:03Then it breaks below the low. So now our

4:06:06new swing high becomes here. And again,

4:06:08all we're trying to do in this market is

4:06:10just sell at certain areas with certain

4:06:12confirmation. So, we have a high, we

4:06:14break down to the low. So, that's our

4:06:16swing high. What happens? Price starts

4:06:18to pull back. So, now we found our new

4:06:20low.

4:06:23That low gets broken here. Where's the

4:06:25highest point? Price comes high, starts

4:06:28trading through, comes back up, goes

4:06:30higher, and then trades and breaks the

4:06:32low. So, and then it begins a reversal.

4:06:36So, we have this is our low,

4:06:39and this is our high. Price puts in a

4:06:41high

4:06:43in here,

4:06:45ranges around, then it breaks the low.

4:06:48Then you come in and guess what? Now you

4:06:51have your swing high, which is up here,

4:06:55and your swing low. And then guess what?

4:06:57We're just looking for shorts. When I

4:06:58see my confirmation, which I'm going to

4:07:00share with you later, this is the type

4:07:01of trade that you get. And bear in mind,

4:07:03this is one trade. There has been many

4:07:05of these types of trades in all of this

4:07:07price action once you just understand

4:07:09exactly what the rest of the steps are.

4:07:11So that is directional bias, right? Very

4:07:13clear to see that we just trade in

4:07:15alignment with this trend. We don't need

4:07:16to try and trade against it because the

4:07:18trend is obviously in control. So moving

4:07:21on to rule number two, we've done

4:07:23directional bias. Rule number two is

4:07:26time and price. You see, there are

4:07:29specific time windows that I execute my

4:07:32strategy in. Those time windows are as

4:07:34follows. For London, we can trade

4:07:38from 2:00 a.m.

4:07:43to

4:07:465 a.m. That's Eastern Standard Time. We

4:07:51can only trade inside of that window. If

4:07:53there is a trade that sets itself up at

4:07:561:58, I cannot take that trade. If there

4:07:58was a trade that sets itself up at 5:05

4:08:00a.m., I cannot take that trade. Just

4:08:03inside of that window, I can take that

4:08:05trade. The second window that we have is

4:08:087 to 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, so

4:08:11New York time. So, I have 3 hours in

4:08:12London, from 2:00 to 5:00 a.m., and I

4:08:15have 3 hours in New York, from 7 to

4:08:1710:00 a.m. Now, here's the truth. This

4:08:19strategy has relatively equal results

4:08:22across each time window. Some people can

4:08:24only trade London. Some people could

4:08:26only trade New York. It's completely

4:08:27okay if you just have 3 hours a day to

4:08:29trade. You can still take this and still

4:08:31get the same results because the results

4:08:32are split across both of these sessions.

4:08:35I personally like to trade both of them

4:08:37for the most part. So 2 to 5:00 a.m. for

4:08:39London session and 7 to 10:00 a.m. for

4:08:42New York session. Now we move into step

4:08:45three, right? Which is my third rule.

4:08:47Now my third rule states that in order

4:08:50for me to take a trade, I must see a

4:08:52liquidation first. What does that

4:08:54actually mean? What a liquidation is is

4:08:56a key area of price gets taken out

4:08:59before my trade enters. So if we look at

4:09:02this trade here that I'm going to be

4:09:03breaking down at the end, notice in this

4:09:05blue box right here is Asia session,

4:09:08right? In the green box is my London

4:09:10window. You can see 2 to 5 and my New

4:09:12York is 7 to 10. So this blue box here

4:09:16is Asia session. So if I want to trade

4:09:19in London session for example, like I do

4:09:21this short here comes in London session.

4:09:23for me to trade this setup right bearish

4:09:27I first need to see Asia session get

4:09:29taken out so for example if we're

4:09:31bearish like this

4:09:33and then let's say you know we have this

4:09:36range here

4:09:38is Asia and then let's say London

4:09:41session opens up and I get all of my

4:09:43confirmation but we don't take out that

4:09:45Asia session high I cannot trade so this

4:09:47right here is going to represent our

4:09:50Asia and then London opens and it gives

4:09:53me everything that everything else I

4:09:55want to see. But we don't trade above

4:09:58this high first. I cannot take that

4:10:00trade because in order for me to take

4:10:02that trade, I need to see a liquidation.

4:10:04And a liquidation in this model is the

4:10:07Asia high. So here I need to see this

4:10:09Asia session high here be taken out

4:10:11before I look for a trade. And if we are

4:10:13bullish for example, right, let's say

4:10:15the market was bullish, the same thing

4:10:17is true. If price is bullish like so and

4:10:20the Asia session is in here, if London

4:10:23opens, it gives me everything I need to

4:10:25see. I still cannot trade that because

4:10:28Asia session high remains not taken out.

4:10:31So if we have Asia like that, for

4:10:32example, and then London session, you

4:10:35know, is expansive like so. I still

4:10:38can't take that trade. I would need to

4:10:40see this happen, right? And then then I

4:10:43could take that trade. So step three is

4:10:47liquidation. I need to see a liquidation

4:10:49and for my London model it's typically

4:10:52Asia or Frankfurt. Now rule number four

4:10:55is reversal confirmation. So what a

4:10:58reversal confirmation is is we may be

4:11:00bearish like for example you know before

4:11:03we take this trade right let's go before

4:11:04this trade is entered. This is what the

4:11:07market looks like. We are obviously

4:11:09bearish. However, we don't know that

4:11:12price is going to take out this low

4:11:14right now. So, if we just start selling

4:11:16all the time, we could end up taking

4:11:19five 6 7 8 nine trades and they could

4:11:22all just trade straight through us

4:11:23because for all we know, price could

4:11:25come all the way up here, right, before

4:11:28it trades back down here. And also,

4:11:30another truth is we don't know for sure

4:11:33that price is going to take out this

4:11:34low. We just don't know that that's the

4:11:35highest probability. there's more than a

4:11:3750% chance that it will take out that

4:11:38low based on historical data. So for all

4:11:40we know, we could trade through this

4:11:42level. So what we need to see is

4:11:44confirmation that price is going to

4:11:46reverse and then that reversal will

4:11:48indicate a higher probability that yes,

4:11:51now it is time to trade toward this low.

4:11:54And for that my reversal confirmation is

4:11:56a very very simple thing. You see I use

4:11:57the 15-minut time frame for my strategy.

4:12:00The higher time frame my lower time

4:12:02frame is 1 minute. So if I for example

4:12:05am bearish like this now when the market

4:12:08coming back up like this right we hit

4:12:10this low we start trading higher guess

4:12:12what's going to happen if we go to the

4:12:13one minute time frame and we look at

4:12:14this the one minute is going to be

4:12:17bullish you can already see it the one

4:12:19minute

4:12:21right is bullish

4:12:23putting in these higher highs

4:12:27right all the way up until you know we

4:12:29come into London session

4:12:31you can see that the one minute is

4:12:33bullish

4:12:34and the current structural landscape of

4:12:36the 1 minute. We have a swing low down

4:12:38here and we have a swing high up here.

4:12:42We break structure.

4:12:45So, we're bullish. So, if the one minute

4:12:47time frame is bullish, but the 15-minut

4:12:49is bearish, we do not look to trade yet.

4:12:52What we need to see is this low get

4:12:54taken out. We need to see the 1 minute

4:12:56also shift bearish with the 15-minute.

4:12:58And so, then we have something that

4:12:59looks a little bit like this, right?

4:13:01Let's say you have the main time frame,

4:13:02you know, your 50-minut time frame is

4:13:04like this. And then as price starts to

4:13:07come back up, your one minute time frame

4:13:08is bullish. You don't know when price

4:13:10gonna reverse. If you just see, you sell

4:13:12short here and then price tra. You might

4:13:14sell short again, price trades higher,

4:13:16right? You could take multiple losses in

4:13:18a row. And like I said, for all we know,

4:13:20we might end up seeing price shift back

4:13:22to bullish. And so all of a sudden, you

4:13:24might have just taken six, seven, eight,

4:13:26nine, 10 losses because you couldn't

4:13:28wait for the confirmation. And that's

4:13:29what we see so much. We see traders that

4:13:32don't know how to confirm their trades

4:13:34and so they keep taking loads of losses

4:13:37on a trade. So you simply wait as price

4:13:39pulls back up. The one minute is

4:13:42bullish. At some point the one minute

4:13:44will shift bearish. When that one minute

4:13:46shifts bearish now you can trade and you

4:13:49simply just trade off the back of that

4:13:50one minute reversal and you take it down

4:13:52to the swing low down here. Right? That

4:13:54is how we could get a higher win rate

4:13:56and a higher riskreward. That's why our

4:13:58average win to loss ratio is 6.23

4:14:01because we use this lower time frame.

4:14:03We're scaling down to get a more

4:14:04accurate kind of sniper entry if you'd

4:14:07like. And so that is our lower time

4:14:10frame confirmation. So let's say for

4:14:12example we break below this low like

4:14:15that. Well now the 1 minute is no longer

4:14:17bullish. The 1 minute is bearish. We

4:14:19have our liquidation of Asia session

4:14:20high. Now we're good to trade. And now

4:14:22rule five is order block fair value gap

4:14:25or inverted fair value gap entry model.

4:14:27So what I do is after we get this one

4:14:30minute shift like this I usually go to a

4:14:325minut time frame. On this 5minut time

4:14:34frame I'm looking for an order block a

4:14:37fair value gap or an inverted fair value

4:14:39gap that I can trade from. Ideally if I

4:14:42can get a multitude of them combined

4:14:44together that's going to be the area

4:14:45that I take. So if we look at price

4:14:47right here, what we will see is first

4:14:49and foremost we have a bullish fair

4:14:51value gap here that gets inverted,

4:14:53right? Traded through. So that becomes

4:14:55an inverted fair value gap. At the same

4:14:57time, we also have a fivem minute fair

4:14:59value gap here. We also have another

4:15:02fiveminute fair value gap here, right?

4:15:04And then we also have, you know, this M5

4:15:06order block, right? You could use this

4:15:08buy to sell. You could use this as your

4:15:11order block, this final buy to sell,

4:15:13right? So here you can see on the

4:15:145minute time frame we have an inverted

4:15:17fair value gap, an order block and a

4:15:19normal fair value gap. Sometimes you

4:15:21might just get one of them, sometimes

4:15:22you might get a couple of them.

4:15:23Sometimes you might get all of them. But

4:15:24I'm looking for the area of price where

4:15:26we get that confirmation. And then I'm

4:15:28just going to choose one of those areas

4:15:29and take my trade. And so for example,

4:15:30short position in here. My stop loss

4:15:32would go above the high. Then where

4:15:34would I look at targeting? I'm just

4:15:36trading in direction of the trend.

4:15:38Right? The 15 minute is bearish. I'm

4:15:40expecting the probability indicates that

4:15:42we will get lower prices. So if that's

4:15:44what probability indicates, then I'll

4:15:46just take my trade down to this low in

4:15:48here. And again, we can just use this

4:15:49inverted F value put our stops above the

4:15:52highs. And you can see here 1 to 5.57

4:15:56risk-reward. And then if you risk $1,000

4:15:58on this trade, you return $5,570.

4:16:01So that's why you can have a 33% win

4:16:03rate and take 10 trades. Let's say you

4:16:05just win three of those trades. But if

4:16:06my average is 6.27, 27. Let's just say

4:16:08six. If I take three trades at six, what

4:16:12do I return? 18. If I lose the other

4:16:15seven, then I lose seven. However, at

4:16:17the end of those 10 trades, I've won 18

4:16:20times my risk, and I've lost seven times

4:16:23my risk. So, if my risk is $1,000 per

4:16:26trade, I've lost seven trades, so I lost

4:16:27$7,000. I won three trades, but I made

4:16:30$18,000. The net profit is $11,000.

4:16:34That's how the riskreward and win rate

4:16:36game goes together. And so that would

4:16:37literally be the trade that's taken. Of

4:16:39course, I said, you know, at the end

4:16:41I'll show you the trade strategy. I've

4:16:42kind of already walked you through

4:16:43everything. And what I will say is this

4:16:45is just one model, right? So this

4:16:48playbook, the playbook that we kind of

4:16:49went through here, which you can kind of

4:16:51see. This playbook actually does have

4:16:53multiple variations of it. One of those

4:16:56variations is this right here, which is

4:16:58my London sweep Frankfurt reversal

4:17:00model. I also have six other models

4:17:03these same criteria. But again, those

4:17:06six of the models, those are kind of,

4:17:07you know, not really something to be

4:17:09honest with you, I'm willing to share on

4:17:10YouTube. But this one in of itself is

4:17:13more than good enough. You know, it's

4:17:15it's profitable enough. Go and test it

4:17:16for yourself. And that pretty much

4:17:17becomes it, right? That becomes our

4:17:19strategy. We have a 15-minute time frame

4:17:21that is bearish. So, we're looking for

4:17:23shorts. Is it between 2 and 5 a.m.?

4:17:25There's two. At the moment that we're

4:17:27going to take the trade, it's 3:30 a.m.

4:17:28Great. Step one. Step two. bearish in

4:17:31our time window. Third rule, do we have

4:17:32the liquidation? Yeah, we liquidate

4:17:34Frankfurt. We liquidate Asia. Great.

4:17:36Step four, lower time frame

4:17:38confirmation. Has the one minute time

4:17:39frame shifted to align itself with the

4:17:4150-minut time frame? Yes, it happens

4:17:43right here. Okay, great. There's five.

4:17:45There's four. Sorry. And then step five,

4:17:46do we have an order block, a fair value

4:17:48gap, or an inverted fair value gap on

4:17:49the 5minut time frame to take the trade?

4:17:51Yes, we do. Those are all the rules that

4:17:53come together for this one specific

4:17:55model. And that would mean you have the

4:17:57green light to execute on this trade.

4:18:00Now again, look, we'll kind of see how

4:18:02the trade plays out and managers, but

4:18:03this something super important is you

4:18:05can have a trading strategy. So many

4:18:07traders have trading strategies that

4:18:08work and they still don't make money

4:18:10because trading strategy is only 33% of

4:18:13the equation. There are two other things

4:18:15just as important, maybe even more

4:18:17important than trading strategy if you

4:18:19want to consistently make money. Let's

4:18:20see how this trade plays out. Right, you

4:18:22can see price tags us in. It's hovering

4:18:24around price for a little bit. This is

4:18:25where psychology becomes important. Many

4:18:27traders are deviating from their plan.

4:18:30At this point, you can see for me it's

4:18:32just a game of following my rules. I

4:18:34also have rules in place for when I move

4:18:36my stop loss to break even, etc., etc.

4:18:37But you can see there's the shift. Price

4:18:40tags in, we move, we pull back, we move,

4:18:42we pull back. Like even on the

4:18:43five-minute time frame, you can see the

4:18:44structure that we use.

4:18:48You can see the directional bias and

4:18:51that becomes our end

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