Full transcript
0:00ten commandments for critical thinking
0:04one
0:07first and foremost slow down
0:12does what's in front of you matter and
0:14require deep thought
0:17if so
0:18pause
0:20it deserves a strategy
0:23if not don't worry too much
0:26get on with it get it out the
0:28way apply your attention selectively and
0:33effectively
0:35ten commandments for critical thinking
0:39two
0:41conserve mental energy
0:45you have limited willpower
0:47limited mental energy
0:49be limited attention
0:53try to build habits in the working
0:55environment that help you focus and this
0:58almost certainly means not having email
1:00or social media open in the background
1:04deal with things like messages in
1:06focused bursts
1:08don't let others dictate your time and
1:11your attention
1:14ten commandments for critical thinking
1:18three
1:20if in doubt
1:21wait
1:23time itself is a powerful filter
1:26pauses and silence
1:28at the friends of better thought
1:32leave those difficult messages for a few
1:33days
1:35even a week
1:37and suddenly
1:38what you need to say will feel much
1:40clearer
1:42or
1:43whether you need to say anything at all
1:46doing something
1:48is not necessarily better than doing
1:50nothing
1:54ten commandments for critical thinking
1:58four
2:00know your limits
2:02don't pretend to know what you don't
2:04know
2:06practice saying i don't know
2:10i haven't read that
2:13i need to find out more
2:17seek out others expertise where yours
2:19runs out
2:21and remember
2:23expertise is always specific
2:26don't assume that someone who knows
2:28about particle physics
2:30has even half a clue about economics
2:3410 commandments for critical thinking
2:385.
2:41beware sunk costs
2:44once you've put time effort
2:47cash or care into something
2:49it's tempting to stick with it no matter
2:52what
2:54in order to justify your input
2:56well don't
2:59you'll never get that expenditure back
3:02so try not to consider it at all when
3:05looking ahead
3:07don't over value what you have just
3:09because you have it
3:11if it's not working out
3:14if it's failing
3:15if it turns out not to be what you
3:17wanted
3:18cut your losses
3:20be brutal
3:22don't get shackled to your past
3:2610 commandments for critical thinking
3:306.
3:32judge strategy not results
3:36judging by results is seductively
3:39dangerous
3:41stupid strategies can end well
3:45sound strategies don't always work
3:48but a bad strategy with a good outcome
3:50was still a bad strategy
3:53while a good strategy that didn't work
3:56is still worth repeating
3:59this is the only way to play the odds in
4:02the long term
4:04don't get obsessed with short-term
4:07success
4:08or with those who have succeeded
4:12much of this is just luck
4:14keep doing the right thing
4:18ten commandments for critical thinking
4:22seven
4:25most things revert to the mean
4:28in other words
4:30an exceptional result is likely to be
4:32followed by a less exceptional one
4:36whether good or bad
4:38don't be fooled
4:40just like the economy after a crash
4:42things tend to recover over time
4:46or to fall back from a high
4:50don't give someone or something credit
4:52for whatever was likely to happen anyway
4:57look to the long term
5:00to the big numbers and the underlying
5:02trends
5:04if you want to see signals rather than
5:07noise
5:09ten commandments for critical thinking
5:13eight
5:16seek refutation over confirmation
5:20any idea can be endlessly confirmed
5:24if you're only looking for things that
5:25support it
5:27you can convince yourself the earth is
5:29flat
5:31if you never look more than a mile away
5:35the most precious kind of evidence
5:37forces you to re-examine what you think
5:42seek out challenges and contradictions
5:46put your arguments and beliefs to a
5:48genuine test
5:50if an idea or a theory cannot be tested
5:53or disproved it isn't worth much
5:5710 commandments for critical thinking
6:019.
6:04beware your frames of reference
6:08would you walk one mile for 20 pounds
6:12imagine you're about to buy a kettle for
6:1440 pounds
6:17and you then discover it's on sale for
6:1920 pounds in a shop one mile away
6:24you probably take a walk
6:27now imagine that you're buying a car for
6:29six thousand pounds
6:32and you discover the same car is on sale
6:35for
6:375980 pounds a mile away
6:40you probably stay put
6:43but why
6:45your perceptions of cost and value are
6:47always relative
6:49and never absolute
6:52so make very sure you define your own
6:55terms of reference in advance
6:58and don't let someone or something else
7:02do it for you
7:04ten commandments for critical thinking
7:08ten
7:11every single option you're facing can be
7:14wrong before you choose first ask
7:18is the best or most meaningful response
7:21even on offer
7:24a website says you must either enter
7:26your personal details or not get access
7:30perhaps the better choice
7:32is to reject the deal
7:35a politician says we must either raise
7:37taxes or lower immigration
7:40but that's no reason for you to accept
7:43you have to go with either of these
7:45options
7:47look outside the frame
7:50ask
7:51whether you're really being given a
7:53choice at all
7:55ask
7:56and this is the essence
7:58of critical thinking
8:01is there a different better way of
8:03looking at the world altogether
8:13you