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0:24foreign investment that generates
0:26quality employment and reduces poverty
0:28in a sustained manner over the last 14
0:30years . And well , this is what the
0:33government presented this year with the
0:35support of the IDB , it is worth
0:37mentioning , this roadmap which also has
0:39four pillars to strengthen that
0:41investment , dollarization , generate
0:43employment , and the implicit goal is to
0:45grow between 4 and 5 % in a sustained
0:47manner . I understand , Pablo Lucio , that
0:50you have contributed in some way to
0:52create this roadmap . Uh , but well , we
0:56also see uh this roadmap and we have a
0:58reality where perhaps there is a
0:59divorce between what is proposed and
1:01what is acted upon . Uh , barely 35 % of
1:06Ecuadorians have adequate employment
1:08and an economy that is growing well
1:10below the goal that is set out in this
1:12agenda . To talk about all of that , we
1:14are joined by Pablo Lucio Paredes ,
1:16director of the Institute of Economics
1:17at the Universidad San Francisco de
1:19Quito and . And well , what can you tell
1:21us about this agenda , about this
1:23divorce that exists between what is
1:25expressed in this roadmap , which are
1:26basically intentions , and what is being
1:28acted upon , uh , and what is being done
1:30for the Ecuadorian economy ? uh we do
1:35not grow in a very sustained way , we
1:37have periods where we grow minimally
1:39and and well , how do we see that
1:40divorce between what is wanted to be
1:42done and what is actually being done in
1:44the economy ? And how do we see the
1:48state of the current economy , uh Pablo ,
1:50taking into account , well , sales have
1:52risen , in a way we are trying to
1:54recover , but that is not enough . It
1:57seems that everything being done is not
1:59enough to have sustained growth , which
2:01is what we would like . Yes , a pleasure
2:03to be here . Look , regarding the agenda ,
2:07I would say , a bit cynically , uh , I
2:09would say the best thing about it is
2:11the title . Uh , the agenda's title says
2:15growth agenda and it really is what
2:17Ecuador needs . Not only Ecuador , uh ,
2:21why do people's lives improve ? When
2:24people get employment , more income , uh ,
2:26and it is what allows one to move
2:28forward . Later , government support can
2:30come , a series of things can come , but
2:32in the end , getting employment and
2:33better income is the basic thing in
2:35people's lives . That is where it starts
2:37to move forward and that is only
2:38achieved with economic growth , right ?
2:41What does economic growth mean ? It
2:42means that in daily life people say , "
2:44Gee , the economy is moving more , there
2:46are more businesses , more investment ,
2:48more jobs , I'm getting hired , et cetera
2:50, et cetera . " It is the essence of the
2:52economy . Beyond the metrics , because
2:54there are people who rightly say that
2:56GDP is not the best measure , let's
2:58forget about the metrics and focus on
3:00whether things improve in daily life ,
3:01right ? Uh , and the agenda , you said the
3:06agenda talks about 4-5 % growth . Maybe I
3:11read it wrong , but the agenda says that
3:13in the coming years we will grow 2.7 %
3:16and it is somehow satisfied , saying
3:18that's not bad . No , the economy needs
3:21to grow between 4 and 5 % , but it isn't
3:23growing . And the agenda isn't even
3:25posing that as a goal to say , " Gee ,
3:27let's really analyze this and that is
3:28where we should be heading , " right ? Uh ,
3:30and this very year you were asking , how
3:32are we doing now ? This year the Central
3:34Bank just revised the economy and says ,
3:36instead of 2.5 we will grow 2.7 , which
3:39is a statistical difference , right ?
3:41It's as if you say , " I thought I would
3:43grow 10 centimeters this year , but
3:45instead of 10 , I'll grow 10.5 . " Uh ,
3:48well , it doesn't change anything , right
3:50? Uh , so the objective , I think the
3:54title is good , but the goal is
3:56absolutely insufficient . And then what
4:03lies behind the agenda , you mentioned
4:05that I also participated in some
4:06meetings trying to friendly contribute
4:08some ideas , but I think one of the big
4:10problems we have in Ecuador is that we
4:12are not capable of sitting down and
4:13discussing issues in depth . I would
4:20prefer , to be honest , an agenda with
4:22two or three fundamental issues that
4:24have been truly discussed among diverse
4:26people , among people who think
4:28differently , instead of having an
4:30agenda with I don't know how many , well
4:32, there are four fundamental points ,
4:34but there are , uh , 100 sub-points ,
4:36let's say , right ? It has 140 pages . I
4:40prefer three well-discussed topics to I
4:42don't know , X poorly-discussed topics ,
4:44because this is not an agenda of the
4:46Ecuadorians , it is a government agenda
4:48that has been discussed quickly with a
4:50few groups , right ? And so , is that
4:53really a country agenda , right ? It is
4:56an agenda we all believe in , right ? Uh ,
4:59it’s an agenda that we all say , geez ,
5:01this is , as you were saying , our our
5:03roadmap . No , it's a government proposal
5:05with technical support from the IDB . Uh
5:08, in the end it's a somewhat academic ,
5:10somewhat bureaucratic , somewhat not
5:12issue that that soon we'll have
5:14forgotten about and that's not a
5:15roadmap for Ecuador , is it ? It’s what
5:18we need on fundamental issues , to reach
5:20an agreement on things , right ?
5:22>> What is the diagnosis of the Ecuadorian
5:24economy right now , Pablo ? And what
5:26should be done regarding those four
5:27topics ? In your opinion , what are the
5:29ones we Ecuadorians should agree on and
5:31say , well , this is what we're going to
5:33do and this is what we want to achieve ?
5:35Look , as I was telling you , the Central
5:38Bank just mentioned 2.7 % . It wouldn’t
5:41surprise me if by the end of the year
5:43we are closer to three than to 2.7 ,
5:45which isn't bad , but we are far from
5:47the steady 4 or 5 % that the Ecuadorian
5:49economy needs . And for that , let's say ,
5:53one could say , " We’re going to read
5:55in the agenda , in this growth agenda ,
5:56some interesting things . " But then you
5:59yourself said it , uh , " There's what is
6:03said and what is done . " And I'm going
6:05to give you a couple of examples
6:07related to the agenda that was our
6:08topic of conversation . Uh , oil and
6:11mining . There’s a whole lot of things
6:13about oil and mining , right ? I don’t
6:15know how many aspects . And then one
6:16says , " Just taking this government , we
6:18could also take the last 10 , 15 , 20
6:20years , whatever , but let's say taking
6:22this government . " Oil , oil production
6:26is around 450 , 460,000 barrels , when
6:29Ecuador's target should be 600 , 700,000
6:32barrels . They talk about the importance
6:36of oil and then in practice we say ,
6:38well , what has happened now ? The
6:39government has set 500,000 as a goal
6:42for next year . I hope at least that is
6:44achieved , but you understand me , it's
6:46mining . There are two big mines in
6:48Ecuador . Uh , since when ? For 10 years
6:51now . For 10 years now . What major
6:53project has been developed . So we say ,
6:55" Mining is important and then in
6:57practice nothing happens . " Uh , another
6:59topic that is there on the agenda and
7:01you pointed it out , strengthening
7:03dollarization . Well , first of all , it's
7:05a mistake , this business of
7:06strengthening dollarization .
7:07Dollarization is what it is .
7:09Dollarization gives the Ecuadorian
7:11economy a tremendous foundation of
7:13stability , and we have to forget about
7:15this idea of " strengthening "
7:16dollarization , right ? What we need to
7:19do in Ecuador is to take advantage of
7:20dollarization , which is not the same
7:22thing .
7:23>> Money .
7:23>> Uh , they are two different things ,
7:25let's say , right ? Strengthening it , or
7:27protecting it , or , what do you call it ,
7:29taking advantage of it . And in Ecuador ,
7:31we are not taking advantage of it . So ,
7:33in that chapter on " strengthening " — as
7:35I say , in quotes — dollarization , there
7:37are a series of things , but the two
7:39most important things that should be in
7:41that chapter are missing . The only two
7:43or three that should be there : one is
7:45eliminating the Central Bank , that
7:47should be an important thing . A second
7:49one is liberalizing the financial
7:51system . It is a system that is , uh ,
7:53controlled , with its hands tied . And
7:56one says , " Sure , but that's to protect
7:58the people , right ? " The ones you end up
8:01protecting the least with a tied-up
8:02system are the poorest people . And the
8:06third thing we should have is changing
8:08the laws so that Ecuador attracts
8:09international banking . None of that .
8:13The three things I just told you , none
8:15of that is mentioned . So that's why I'm
8:17telling you , this " growth " group ,
8:19beyond the title , does not convince me ;
8:20it doesn't convince me at all . Uh , then
8:22there are topics that are not even
8:24touched upon . One of the topics , you
8:26have it on the agenda for the day ,
8:27right ? One of the topics is the reform
8:30of social security , especially the
8:32pension system , right ? It's not even
8:35mentioned , or maybe it's mentioned in
8:37some corner that I missed while reading
8:39140 pages — sometimes you miss
8:40something — but I think the topic isn't
8:42even there , right ? And now we just saw ,
8:45and you mentioned it before , that the
8:46person who was — what's the expression ?
8:49Director of the IESS or Chairman of the
8:51Board ? He just moved to the Economy —
8:54well , now it has a broader name , but
8:56let's call it the Ministry of Economy ,
8:58right ? Because Mrs. Moya is going to
9:02the IESS . He just moved from the IESS
9:07to the Ministry of Economy . He is going
9:11to be replaced by someone else , I don't
9:13know who at the IESS , but the question
9:15— it doesn't matter who the people are
9:17— is : is the government willing to
9:18have a dialogue ? Because it is a
9:20sensitive issue , it’s not just a
9:21matter of coming in and saying , " Here
9:23is what I decided , let's move forward . "
9:24No , it is a topic that needs to be
9:26reflected upon among Ecuadorians , right
9:28? Just a few days ago , so-called social
9:32groups , workers , and others just made a
9:34proposal for pension system reform , uh ,
9:36which you may agree or disagree with ,
9:38but that’s not what’s important .
9:42They just made a very concrete proposal
9:44for a new law . And so I think it’s
9:47important to take that , take what we in
9:49the Augusto de la Torre Citizens '
9:50Commission proposed three years ago ,
9:52and sit down to discuss it as
9:54Ecuadorians , saying , " Let’s see , you
9:56think this , I think that . " These two
9:58proposals are quite different , but I
10:00insist , it's neither good nor bad ; the
10:02point is that there are proposals and
10:04that is important , but the government
10:05is not participating in any aspect of
10:07fundamental change to social security ,
10:09right ? So one would say , well ,
10:11hopefully the change in people means
10:13there will be an in-depth discussion on
10:15the subject , which is what we need to
10:16do . As I told you at the beginning ,
10:18there are at least two , three , four
10:20topics we have to reach an agreement on
10:22in Ecuador . So , that is why the growth
10:24folks — I insist — and some bad folks ,
10:26the best thing they have is their title
10:28.
10:28>> Now , what reforms are still missing ?
10:31For example , structural reforms so that
10:33in some way we can grow in a more
10:35sustained manner . Uh , and well , that
10:37money comes into the country , that
10:39investments come in . What obstacles do
10:41you see right now and what reforms or
10:43changes do we need to make ?
10:45>> Let's see , well , first let me tell you
10:47one thing , right ? We will always have
10:48the , I believe , mistaken tendency to
10:50insist too much on foreign investment .
10:52Foreign investment is very important ,
10:54but in any country in the world , 80 to
10:5790 % of investment is local investment ,
10:59right ? I mean , the first ones who have
11:01to invest are us , the Ecuadorians . And ,
11:03even for a very practical reason , the
11:05foreigner looks at Ecuador and says , "
11:07You want me to go ? " So they ask the
11:09question , " And are you investing or are
11:10you not investing ? " And you tell them ,
11:12" You know what ? I am not investing . " "
11:14But you come and invest . " The foreigner
11:15says , " Why would I invest if you are
11:17not investing ? " No , I mean , why would
11:18anyone believe in your country if you
11:19don't even believe in it yourself ?
11:20Right ? So , national investment really
11:22accounts for 80 , 90 % of total investment
11:24. Foreign investment is very important ,
11:25but you have to ask yourself the
11:27question of investment , right ? And
11:28investment , obviously , is not just a
11:30big factory ; it's the corner store
11:32saying , " Do I hire someone , do I expand
11:34, or not ? " That is the fundamental
11:36issue of investment , isn't it ? So , I
11:38would say there are 10 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10
11:41aspects that I think are fundamental .
11:45One in which I sincerely believe the
11:47government is making a great effort . I
11:49don't know if it's perfect , it might
11:51not be , but it's the issue of
11:52insecurity , right ? The fight against
11:54narco-trafficking , narco-crime , right ?
11:56I think the government is making great
11:58efforts , it has the support of the
12:00United States , it's the only way , it's
12:02not something we can face alone , it's
12:04an issue we need to handle together , so
12:06I think a great effort is being made
12:08there . Second thing , has the justice
12:10system in Ecuador improved at all , or
12:13does it remain politicized , corrupt ,
12:15etcetera , etcetera ? I think the latter
12:18is the reality .
12:19>> Third , the quality of politics . Are
12:23politicians , starting with the
12:25government , really interested in
12:27solving the country's problems , or are
12:29they interested in re-election in the
12:30next elections ? How do I manipulate the
12:33next elections ? How do I get rid of
12:36certain adversaries using , well , a
12:38series of factors , right ? Uh , so has
12:41the quality of politics improved ? I
12:43don't think so . Actually , the quality
12:45of politics in Ecuador is getting worse
12:47. The oil and mining issue we already
12:49mentioned , and electricity , because now
12:51we really have to say — in our minds we
12:53have to say — oil , mining , and
12:54electricity , as these are major
12:56investments Ecuador requires . State
12:58reform , again , the growth agenda ,
13:00people talk about a lot of things , but
13:02in practice , as a simple citizen , I
13:05don't see any changes to improve the
13:07state in its processes , its controls ,
13:09or its efficiency . What did they do
13:13with the ministries ? Well , large
13:15ministries .
13:16>> One would have to see what happens with
13:17that , right ? But many times you just
13:19merge two . All you manage to eliminate
13:21is that instead of three ministers ,
13:23there is only one . Instead of three
13:25undersecretariats there is only one ,
13:27but essentially its impact on the
13:29economy is absolutely secondary . I wish
13:31they were , we’ll have to see . But I
13:34don’t see any substantial change to
13:36the State that has a more positive
13:38impact on society . The issue of the
13:42pension system that we mentioned a
13:44while ago , the issue of the labor
13:46system , right ? The changes regarding
13:49the financial system I was telling you
13:51about , to be able to attract more
13:53international banking to Ecuador to
13:55compete with Ecuadorian banks . The
13:57issue of trade agreements , that does
13:59seem to be an aspect that we are
14:01promoting in Ecuador and are continuing
14:03with . We started reluctantly with
14:05Europe in 2016 , very reluctantly , but
14:07well , in the end it was done with
14:08Europe that year and then we have
14:10advanced with others and continue to
14:12advance , which also seems like a
14:14positive aspect to me . And well , maybe
14:16I’m missing something else , but those
14:18are the changes we need to make . And if
14:20we do a check , I tell you , leaving the
14:23second issue aside , I would tell you
14:25the issue of insecurity that we are
14:27fighting , it is not an easy battle ,
14:29it’s not like one says , in 6 months
14:31we have solved this issue . And the
14:33other , the issue of opening up to the
14:34world that we continue to do and is
14:36very positive , I would say . The rest is
14:38, not counting the immediate short-term
14:40issue , we have an El Niño phenomenon
14:43coming , according to scientists , it
14:45will be very strong . That is correct .
14:47>> And that can complicate things a lot ,
14:49the crops , the farmers , it can generate
14:51floods , aggravate the electrical crisis
14:53we already have , different from that
14:55scenario . Well , what can happen to the
14:57Ecuadorian economy ?
14:58>> Yes , yes , it is very serious . Look ,
15:00let’s remember that two of the
15:05important crises we have had in the
15:08last 40 years , 40 - something , were
15:10linked to the El Niño phenomenon of
15:12'82 and then linked to the El Niño
15:15phenomenon of '98 , '98 or so . Two of
15:19the big crises . So , of course , the El
15:22Niño phenomenon has an enormous impact
15:24on the economy , on the productive
15:26sector , on infrastructure , most
15:28importantly on people's lives , on
15:30people's daily lives . So yes , it is a
15:32very , very complicated issue . We have
15:34to be prepared . I don’t know if we
15:36are prepared . I also don't know if
15:38there is still time ; if we can still
15:39manage to be prepared or not . But well ,
15:41we have to be prepared , we need
15:43resources , uh , we have to seek support ,
15:45we have to seek international support
15:47because it exists to face the
15:48phenomenon , because you need , you need
15:50money to be able to face it , right ? To
15:52rebuild the infrastructure , for a , a
15:54number of things . Within that , as you
15:57say , there is the electrical issue that
15:59is coming our way for the worse . Uh ,
16:02the government says it's ready , and
16:04when you , you do the math , you say , "
16:07Let's see , uh , how much , how much has
16:09demand increased , how much have we
16:11increased the supply of generation , and
16:14one sees that the numbers don't add up ,
16:16right ? I think Cenace , if I'm not
16:19mistaken , it's Cenace or one of those
16:22institutions , says the gap would be
16:241,300 MW . Uh , my numbers are a bit more
16:28optimistic , in quotes . My numbers come
16:31out to 700 , 800 , 900 MW . Let's remember
16:36, and this is important , that in the
16:392024 crisis we reached a gap of 1,800
16:42MW and that led us to 12 , 13 , or 14
16:45hours of blackouts . If we take the
16:48Cenace figure , which is 1,300 in
16:51relation to 1,800 , it means we would
16:53have cuts of at least , uh , 8 , 9 , 10
16:56hours . If we take my figures , which are
16:59a little better , uh , it would mean we
17:01would have cuts of 5 , 6 , 7 hours , but
17:03in either calculation , the situation
17:06looks difficult . Uh , and the government
17:08has announced many things , but then the
17:10government itself just this year said , "
17:12We are going to install 500 megawatts .
17:14" " And then recently they gave the news
17:15that only , I think it is 60 megawatts ,
17:17will be installed , or something like
17:19that by the end of the year . So one
17:21says , geez , uh , uh , 3 years ago it was
17:24an unexpected issue , right ? In 2023 ,
17:272024 it was unexpected , but by 2026
17:29it's not so unexpected , right ?
17:31>> Or it's already known , we have talked
17:33about it .
17:33>> And , and , and one says , well , there has
17:36been time to do things , right ? That's
17:38>> right . Well , unfortunately what
17:40happened with Progen and Australia
17:41happened , and not much more was done
17:43from what I understand . We are speaking
17:44at this moment with Pablo Lucio Paredes
17:46, director of the Institute of
17:47Economics at the Universidad San
17:49Francisco de Quito . We are talking
17:50about the 2040 growth agenda and , well ,
17:52that disconnect that perhaps exists
17:54between those goals being proposed and
17:56the reality we are living . It is 7:31
17:58in the morning .
18:01>> Dear Pablo Lucio , regarding Veronica's
18:03reflection on the divorce between goals
18:05and what can actually be done . I want
18:09to ask you : do all economists more or
18:11less agree with you ? That is to say ,
18:13does everyone agree that we must
18:15increase electrical generation ? Does
18:17everyone agree that oil production must
18:19be increased ? Does everyone more or
18:23less agree that there must be a change
18:24in the Social Security Institute's
18:26scheme ? However , government after
18:30government comes , and no matter how
18:32good the minister is , they fail
18:34miserably when they have to put any of
18:36these ideas into practice . That is ,
18:40they aren't even that revolutionary
18:41because it seems there is a consensus
18:43among economists and technicians in
18:45each area as to where we should be
18:46heading . Obviously , there will be some
18:50issues that might be a bit more
18:51controversial , but in theory , we should
18:53more or less agree on everything you
18:55are telling us . Why can't it be
18:58executed ? Yes , that is a great question
19:04that is not for economists , but for
19:06sociologists or others who better
19:08understand social processes . Uh , look ,
19:13recently I was giving a lecture , and at
19:15the end , a man stood up to ask a
19:17question and told me , " Look , economist ,
19:19I really like following you ; I always
19:21listen to you , and I like what you say .
19:23" I told him , " Thank you very much . "
19:25And he says , " But the truth is , even if
19:27it's very interesting , I've heard you
19:29saying the same thing for 10 or 20
19:31years . " So I told him , " I am probably
19:34the problem . " I said , " But perhaps I am
19:36not the problem , but the country , right
19:38? " We are clear that things must be
19:40done , yet we don't do them , and perhaps
19:42in 10 or 20 years we will still be
19:44discussing exactly the same things
19:45because we don't face the problems . "
19:49And that is what I was saying at the
19:50beginning ; the great problem in Ecuador
19:52is that we don't have the capacity to
19:54sit down to discuss issues and find
19:56solutions , right ? Yesterday , last night
19:59I was at the University of San
20:00Francisco for the book launch of José
20:02María Aznar , the former President of
20:04the Spanish government , and he was
20:05saying the same thing . In Spain , we
20:07have lost the ability to sit down and
20:09discuss issues because everyone stays
20:11in their own corner , right ? And
20:13everyone is against the others , right ?
20:15So , we can't build anything because we
20:17are against each other , and when you
20:19are against someone , you don't want to
20:20meet with them to talk . I think that is
20:23the great problem we have in Ecuador ,
20:25which belongs to Ecuadorian society ,
20:27Ecuadorian elites , and political groups
20:29in Ecuador , that we are not capable of
20:31facing the big issues , right ? Uh , for
20:35example , I return to it because it's an
20:37obsession , let's say , maybe because I'm
20:39about to retire , maybe that's why the
20:41obsession , but it's the issue of the
20:42pension system . When ? Where have we sat
20:47down to seriously discuss the issue ? At
20:48a political level , at an elite level ,
20:50in short . As I was saying , now there
20:52are at least — there are others , but
20:54let's say there are at least two
20:55proposals on the subject , the one just
20:57made by social groups and the one we
20:58made with Augusto 3 years ago . Well ,
21:01where will there be a space for us to
21:02sit down and discuss ? Or is everyone
21:04going to say , " Well , if I fundamentally
21:06disagree with what you said , why would
21:08I sit down with you ? " Right . So , that
21:12to me seems to be the underlying issue
21:14in the country ; on the subject of
21:15electricity , we all say there must be
21:17private participation in this . Well ,
21:20what are the mechanisms for there to be
21:22greater private participation in oil
21:24and mining ? Environmental groups say , "
21:28There basically cannot be mining or oil
21:30in Ecuador because it's an outrage . " "
21:33Others say , ' No , there has to be
21:34because it's a great source of wealth .
21:36' " At what point and where do we come
21:38together ? To say , let's see , where do
21:41we do oil and mining and where do we
21:43not ? Because I imagine sensibly that
21:47there are places in Ecuador where we
21:48can do it and likewise there are places
21:50where we shouldn't because it harms the
21:52environment , water sources , people's
21:54lives , in short , and so on . So , where
21:58are the spaces to sit down and say yes
22:01here , no there ? Yes here , no there , to
22:03find where those spaces are . So , I
22:06think your question is the fundamental
22:08question in Ecuador , which is where do
22:10we find political spaces with a capital
22:12P , right ? Which isn't just discussion
22:16among politicians ; it's politics in its
22:18most important and healthy sense . Uh ,
22:21where are those spaces ? We don't have
22:23them . That is why I believe we don't
22:25move forward . And if you look , the only
22:27, the only important decision , sorry ,
22:29that we have made in Ecuador in the
22:31last 20 , 30 years was dollarization .
22:34And dollarization happened because it
22:36happened , let's put it that way , right ?
22:38Uh , but anyway , it’s good that it
22:40happened , uh , it's very good that it
22:42happened , but , uh ... that , that seems to
22:44me to be Ecuador's great challenge :
22:46where can we find room to reach an
22:47agreement ? Otherwise , what we’re
22:49going to do is wait , like in the case
22:51of pensions ; we’re going to wait for
22:53the leader to one day , by inspiration ,
22:55say : " Look , this is my law and I’m
22:57sending it to Congress . " I have a
22:58majority in Congress , and since I have
23:00a majority , it passes , right ? And what
23:03happens 10 years later when another
23:05political group comes to power and says
23:07, since you did it in such a sloppy way
23:09, right ? Now I am also going to send
23:12another law that will replace yours and
23:14it will just be the one I send . No , not
23:16the one for all Ecuadorians , but the
23:18one I — or , also in the Ecuadorian
23:20style , are we going to wait until we
23:22reach the edge of the abyss regarding
23:24pensions , for example , or others ?
23:26We’re going to reach the edge of the
23:28abyss , and when we are at the edge ,
23:30we’re going to say , " Oops , what now ?
23:31" And now that there's no money left and
23:33now that we have to cut pensions , what
23:35do we do ? Let's discuss it at the last
23:37minute . They’re taking notes , right ?
23:38Because we’re in the Ecuadorian style
23:40. That's right . That's right . Often it
23:42is the Ecuadorian style , unfortunately ,
23:44to just let things drift . So , your
23:46question is fundamental . Uh , if we had
23:48a solution , I imagine we would be doing
23:50it , right ? But it is that incapacity of
23:53Ecuador to discuss the issues , right ?
23:56And that is the most frustrating thing ,
23:58knowing that we already have the
23:59answers , but it’s really the means
24:01through which we cannot reach an
24:02agreement . I want to go back to El
24:06Niño because you published an article
24:08in the economic journal * Coyuntura * ,
24:09published and promoted by the
24:11Universidad San Francisco de Quito ,
24:13about the impacts of El Niño . We
24:16already talked about this a little , but
24:18beyond the energy issue , you say , " We
24:20arrived a little better prepared than
24:22for the El Niño phenomenon of
24:241997-1998 , which was the most severe in
24:26history . " Now it seems the forecasts
24:29are telling us this one will be even
24:31worse . What are those specific issues ?
24:34And when we talk about economic losses ,
24:36who are those losses attributed to ? I
24:39mean , it's my business that stops
24:40billing , it's the merchant who has to
24:42restructure their home , their shop . I
24:47mean , where can we identify the
24:48productive sectors that will lose the
24:50most with these forecasts , both from JP
24:52Morgan and the one you cite ?
24:55>> Uh , look , I'm going to be very frank
24:57with you . The article is by my very
25:00esteemed colleague María Paz Vela , so
25:02please invite María Paz and talk to
25:04her about the topic . She is the one who
25:08did the analysis , so I prefer to
25:10respect her knowledge and her work .
25:12Obviously , I am with her on this . We
25:14have looked at this together , but I
25:15think the person who knows the subject
25:17best should speak . Rather , allow me
25:20just a second to go back to this issue
25:22of our inability in Ecuador to make
25:24decisions . Look , 3 years ago or so ,
25:29when we were discussing with this
25:31little group , this group we formed with
25:33Augusto called the Citizens ' Commission
25:36, there were seven of us , almost at the
25:38same time in Uruguay they were
25:40discussing pension system reform , right
25:42? And so , what did they do ? They
25:44appointed 12 people ; there were seven
25:46of us . We didn't represent anyone . So ,
25:48for that very reason , we did it with
25:50the best of intentions , with the best
25:52of faith , but not representing anyone .
25:54What did they do in Uruguay ? They
25:55gathered 12 people , but each person
25:57represented something . Some represented
25:59retirees , others represented business
26:01owners , others workers , others the
26:04government , others I don't know who ,
26:06well , whatever . There were 12 , where
26:08each one represented someone , let's say
26:10, in society , important elite groups .
26:13And so they met , worked , and then ,
26:14let's say , they worked for a month and
26:17then returned to their constituents to
26:19discuss what had been debated . They
26:21said , " Look , we are discussing this ; we
26:23agree , we don't agree . " And then , after
26:25having spoken with their groups , they
26:27returned to the tables , discussed again
26:29, and finally , after a year of work ,
26:31they reached a reasonable agreement
26:32because , of course , they were
26:34representing someone , one of those 12
26:36groups . So , when they reached a final
26:38agreement , it was the agreement of
26:39everyone because each person had
26:40already discussed it with their own
26:42side , and there had been a
26:43back-and-forth , let's say , on this
26:45issue . And so , at the end of that time ,
26:46they said , " We have agreed on a law , "
26:48and they sent the law to Congress . In
26:50Congress they also took it and made
26:51some changes to it . No , I don't
26:53remember the details either . This was
26:55in Uruguay , not in Ecuador , obviously ,
26:57uh , but they already had something
26:58agreed upon and so they brought out
27:00something that was not perfect , but
27:01reasonable and on which everyone was
27:03relatively in agreement . That is the
27:05big difference between , for example ,
27:07Ecuador and Uruguay .
27:09>> Yes , it is interesting , and we also
27:11have to consider that there are
27:13interest groups embedded in the
27:14ministries . So one can arrive with the
27:16best of intentions to , for example , uh ,
27:19introduce technology in the Ministry of
27:21Health , in the IESS , in the public
27:23procurement system ; but the middle
27:25managers themselves , who are collecting
27:27fees for the inability to serve users
27:29quickly in any of these agencies — look
27:31at what also happens in the National
27:33Transit Agency — they themselves take
27:35down any type of progress that ,
27:37obviously , won't be a structural change
27:39, but it would definitely be a step
27:41forward to fight against corruption .
27:44But it's as if we sometimes have the
27:46cat guarding the cheese , or the mouse
27:48guarding the cheese , because we really
27:50can't advance because all the processes
27:52collapse , and the same thing happens
27:54with the electrical system . We cannot
27:57sign any contract because it's the
27:59mafias themselves who take them down if
28:01they are not the ones credited with the
28:02generation projects .
28:05>> Well , I would tell you yes and no .
28:10Partly true , there are mafias embedded
28:12in the various public entities that are
28:14in charge of carrying out a part of
28:16these reforms . I agree with you , but at
28:23the same time , I think that when you
28:24have willpower and leadership and the
28:26will to get things done , I think you
28:28can rise above that and bring order to
28:30things , because otherwise it would also
28:32be a desperate situation . We would say ,
28:36" We want to do it and it's never
28:38possible in Ecuador . " I think that in
28:40Ecuador , things can also be done , right
28:42? And in fact , insufficient things have
28:44also been done . So , it seems to me that
28:45it is also an issue of willpower and
28:47leadership . How long ago , what would it
28:49be ? Maybe about 20 years , well , more or
28:52less . Uh , Colombia , speaking of the oil
28:54we were talking about a moment ago ,
28:56Colombia produced , I remember , 300 ,
28:58400,000 barrels a day , something like
29:00that . And the Uribe government set the
29:02goal of reaching 800,000 , a million , I
29:04mean , to double or triple production in
29:06Colombia . What happened ? There were the
29:08same obstacles as in Ecuador , right ?
29:10The ministries , the corruption , a whole
29:11series of things . But what did
29:13President Uribe do ? And I'll tell the
29:15story , perhaps with small details where
29:17I might be mistaken , but more or less
29:18the overall picture . He decided that he
29:21personally would take charge of moving
29:23the oil sector , and so every month he
29:25would meet with — I'm making this up —
29:28the 15 main players in the area :
29:29foreign companies , national companies ,
29:31ministries , and so on . And then once a
29:34month he would say to you , " Let's see ,
29:36we agreed last month that you would
29:38move forward on such and such ; did you
29:40move forward or not ? " " And then you
29:42would tell him , ' No , because there's
29:44this guy at the ministry who won't move
29:45things along . ' " " So the president
29:47would grab the phone right then and
29:48there and say , ' Put me through to him . '
29:50" " And he would call him . " " Hey , it's
29:51the President of the Republic . " " I'm
29:53told you haven't processed the
29:55paperwork . " " I have another meeting in
29:58a month , and it's not that I hope , I
30:00want this to have moved forward . "
30:02>> Yes . Uh , and then came the Brazilian
30:04guy — I'm making this up — from the
30:06company Petrobras in Brazil . And so the
30:08president would say to him , " Well , and
30:10Petrobras is supposed to bring , I don't
30:12know , $ 100 million to invest ? " " Are
30:14those $ 100 million here yet or not ? " "
30:16I don't know , Mr. President , the board
30:18of Petrobras back in Brazil hasn't made
30:20the decision yet . " " Put me on the
30:21phone with the president of Petrobras ,
30:23Mr. President , " who obviously would
30:25take the call from the President of
30:27Colombia , right ? " Uh , Mr. President ,
30:29come on , we are waiting for the
30:31decision . " " When are you going to make
30:32that decision ? " " If you don't make it ,
30:34I mean , if the decision is negative ,
30:35that's fine . " " I'm not forcing it to
30:37be positive , but make the decision so
30:38we know what we’re going to do . " "
30:40Okay , Mr. President , by next month the
30:42decision will be made , whether it's
30:43positive or negative , whatever it is ,
30:45but it will be made , okay ? " No. So , I
30:47tell you , many times , I insist , it's a
30:50matter of leadership and will that is
30:52often missing due to a lack of
30:56conviction in things . One says , " I'm
30:58going to do such a thing , " but isn't
30:59convinced . It's as if saying , " Well ,
31:01I'm going to do it , and if I don't ,
31:03it's no big deal , right ? " So , I think
31:05there's that : leadership and will ,
31:07which is also fundamental .
31:09>> Thank you very much , Pablo Lucio . It's
31:11truly a pleasure to hear you , though it
31:13is a bit frustrating that you've been
31:15giving this same speech for 10 years
31:16now . It's a bit , but we keep pushing
31:19from both sides . We keep pushing and we
31:21will keep pushing . Having to move
31:25things forward . Yeah .