Full transcript
0:01All right, guys. So, this video is
0:03basically just going to be a more
0:04detailed version of the continuation
0:06model framework that you see on my
0:10YouTube channel. And if you haven't
0:11watched that video already, go ahead and
0:13watch it. It's 38 minutes long. It
0:15basically covers um all the basics of
0:18the continuation model framework. But in
0:21this video, I will be going over some
0:23parts that you see in the YouTube video
0:25and also go more in depth of how the
0:28model works and how to differentiate
0:32when to take trades rejecting off a
0:355-minute gap, rejecting off a 15-minute
0:37gap, or rejecting off of a one or two or
0:393 minute gap, right? Um, obviously this
0:42is a discretionary system, so you're not
0:45thinking of these patterns mechanically.
0:48Everything needs higher time frame
0:50narrative. So obviously you want to
0:53start with a higher time frame drawn
0:55liquidity and take a lower time frame
0:57entry to that higher time frame drawn
0:59liquidity. So if the higher time frame
1:01looks something like this, you have a
1:02higher time frame gap right here. You're
1:04trying to take that last leg to your
1:07higher time frame drawn liquidity. So
1:09this that this example that you see
1:12right here is going to be part of this
1:14leg right here. And this example that
1:17you see right here and this example that
1:18you see right here, this is going to be
1:20part of this last leg down. Right? So
1:23you get that higher time frame, tap into
1:24a fair value gap, and then you see a
1:26rejection out and then you go onto the
1:28lower time frame. Check to see if
1:31there's a 5minute gap open, 15-minute
1:32gap open. Um, and obviously the lower
1:35time frame gaps. If you get a nice
1:37reaction, it can and a confirmation
1:39could be either just a displacement
1:41candle. It can be an inverse for value
1:43gap within this leg right here or within
1:45this leg right here or or actually not
1:49even or it's just those two things. And
1:51then you're going to be targeting that
1:52higher time frame draw liquidity, right?
1:55And obviously um if the higher time
1:58frame is not trending and if it's
2:00ranging, you have to make sure the lower
2:02time frame is clear in order to take
2:04your entry to your target. Because when
2:08the higher time frame is clear and it's
2:10trending in one direction, um it's
2:12really clear on the lower time frame to
2:14get an entry, but when it's ranging,
2:16it's a little bit harder and you have to
2:18be a little bit more careful and
2:20actually see confirmation on the lower
2:23time frame. All right. Um so with this,
2:27let's go and talk about the drawn
2:29liquidities that we will be targeting. I
2:32also covered this in my YouTube video
2:34but I will cover this here as well once
2:37again. Right. So what do
2:41target? So this is mainly what I look
2:44for. Okay. Swing highs, swing lows,
2:48session highs,
2:50session lows. So this can be Asia
2:52session, this can be London session,
2:54this can be New York PM or New York AM
2:57highs and lows, right? So um but for New
3:01York PM and AM highs and lows, I like to
3:03look at that in Asia session whenever I
3:05see that Asia is trending. Um another
3:08thing that I will say is that I only
3:10trade Asia if it's trending and if
3:12there's something big going on um
3:15economically in the world, right? So for
3:18example, the last two weeks or like two
3:21or three weeks ago, there was a week
3:23where Asia was pretty good because there
3:25was war news going on. Trump was talking
3:28a lot of stuff and there was talking
3:30about a lot of stuff and there was a lot
3:32of volatility in Asia. Okay. I also
3:35check Asia here and there um just to see
3:38if it's trending and to see if I can
3:40catch anything. Sometimes, you know,
3:42I'll look at it if I didn't take a trade
3:44in New York session or if New York
3:46session wasn't that clean. Sometimes
3:48I'll hop on Asia, look at it for maybe 5
3:5110 minutes and if nothing's clean, I'll
3:52get off. Okay? I don't spend a lot of
3:55time in Asia. I just want um to let you
3:57guys know. So for number three, unfilled
4:01high time frame fair value gaps. So this
4:04can be the hourly, this can be the 4
4:07hour, this can be the daily, this can be
4:09the weekly, right? These are unfilled
4:12higher time frame fair value gaps. Okay.
4:14But when we get up to the daily or when
4:16we get up to the weekly, it's usually
4:19where the higher time frame is expanding
4:21in one direction to the point where on
4:23the 4 hour and the hourly, you can't
4:25really find any swing highs or swing
4:27lows. Um there isn't really anything to
4:29target. So you bump up to the higher
4:32time frame like the daily or the weekly
4:34and you see if there's any, you know,
4:36swing highs or swing lows or if you see
4:38any unfilled higher time frame for value
4:40gaps. That's kind of the only way I'll
4:42look at the daily or the weekly is if
4:45we're expanding pretty heavy on the
4:47higher time frame, right? So, let's go
4:49back to this right here. Um, obviously,
4:52you shouldn't be taking any of these
4:53trades if you don't have a higher time
4:56frame narrative. Okay? If there is not a
4:59clear higher time frame drawn liquidity
5:01and you're trying to force a trade on
5:03the lower time frame, then you are
5:05absolutely cooking yourself and you're
5:07just asking yourself to take a loss. or
5:10maybe you get lucky once or twice,
5:11right? But the point is we're trying to
5:14be consistent with this. So narrative is
5:17everything. If you're trying to trade
5:19this pattern, I guess you could say,
5:21without some sort of higher time frame
5:23drawn liquidity, then you're just
5:25pattern trading. And this entire model
5:28right here is discretionary. So you
5:29shouldn't be thinking about, oh, you
5:31know, we see a retrace into a fiveminute
5:33for a value gap and a nice rejection.
5:35Let's take it. No, you want to ask
5:37yourself every single time, okay, what
5:39is the higher time frame looking like?
5:40Are we ranging or are we moving in one
5:44direction? All right, do we have any
5:46clear highs? Do we have any clear lows?
5:48If we don't have any of those and on top
5:51of that, the lower time frame doesn't
5:53look clean where we're not creating any
5:56fair value gaps on the five minute time
5:57frame or the 1 minute looks really
5:59choppy or you know, maybe you're 30
6:02minutes or 45 minutes into the session
6:04and you check the 15-minut time frame
6:07and you see one bullish candle and
6:11another bearish candle and then another
6:13bullish candle, right? That is literally
6:15chop. So you should be getting off at
6:17that point. You have to recognize market
6:21conditions. Okay. Now we're going to go
6:23to what time the setups usually present.
6:26Okay.
6:29When do
6:32does this setup usually present?
6:36So
6:389:30 to 11 a.m. Okay. This is usually
6:43the best time to trade this um model
6:48because we rely heavily on volatility
6:52and displacement to take trades. Okay.
6:56And the most volatility usually happens
6:58in New York AM session. All right. Now,
7:01if New York AM session is bad and there
7:05are still some clear higher time frame
7:07draws in liquidity and you see New York
7:08AM is choppy, we're not really doing
7:10much, then you can go to New York PM
7:13session and, you know, check it out a
7:15little bit, see if we're actually making
7:17that move. But I really don't spend more
7:19than an hour and 30 minutes on the
7:21charts each day. Okay.
7:25Um, that's just to answer that really
7:27quick. Now, going back to this once
7:30again, what I want to talk about is I'll
7:33also go into some chart examples as
7:34well, but I want to get all of the more
7:38intricate details out of the way. All
7:40right? So, on the higher time frame,
7:43what you want to do is set conditions.
7:46Okay? Do not be stuck to a bias. I will
7:49also make a video going over daily bias
7:53and a separate video going on drawn
7:54liquidity. But for right now, let's just
7:58give a little bit of insight um of what
8:01I mean by setting conditions. Right? So
8:04on the higher time frame to see where
8:07we're going to see where what drawn
8:09liquidities we can target, you set your
8:13conditions by using higher time frame
8:15fair value gaps. Right? The only thing
8:17that I look for when I'm setting my
8:18conditions are fair value gaps and
8:21inverse fair value gaps. So, we have
8:23fair value gaps presented in a higher
8:27time frame situation.
8:29All right, let's say we're bullish in
8:32this scenario, right? To this higher
8:33time time frame drawn liquidity.
8:36Obviously, you want to see this get
8:38respected and you want to see a nice
8:40rejection out of it and a continuation
8:42to this next high. Now let's say this
8:44ended up getting inverted right here,
8:47right? We get a strong inverse. Well,
8:51obviously you want to switch your bias
8:53if this gets inverted with speed and
8:56there is some clear drawn liquidity
8:58lower that there is a potential for
9:01price to go to. You don't want to get
9:03stuck to a bias and that is the
9:05important of having discretion in a
9:07model like this. You want to be easy,
9:09easily flexible and you want to take
9:12what the market provides instead of
9:14looking at what um you know what pattern
9:19presents itself because again a pattern
9:22is nothing without narrative. All right,
9:27we're also going to be talking about um
9:30you know when to take trades on the
9:32lower time frame
9:34um on the 1 minute or the 2 minute or
9:36the 3 minute versus the 5m minute or
9:38versus the 15-minut right so on the five
9:41minute usually you you um want to take a
9:44trade off of the fiveminut gap if
9:47there's actual clean structure in price
9:50right so price is moving like this we're
9:53just pumping and then we're retracing
9:55we're pumping And then we're retracing
9:56and we're creating clear market
9:58structure. Okay. Now on the one minute,
10:01you would most likely take trades off
10:05one minute flips when price is just
10:07pumping.
10:08Let me draw this out. When price is just
10:11pumping, we're getting like little
10:12retraces. We're going higher. We're
10:15getting little retraces. We're going
10:16higher. Right? you see this kind of
10:19pattern form and then you still have
10:21your higher time frame drawn liquidity,
10:23but you realize that volume is so heavy
10:26where you're probably not going to get a
10:28retrace into a 5m minute or 15-minute
10:31gap since price is displacing pretty
10:33heavily. And then once you get closer to
10:35the higher time frame draw liquidity and
10:37volume still remains the same, well then
10:40you're able to look at the 1 minute time
10:42frame or the 2-minut time frame or the
10:443minut time frame to see if there's any
10:46fair value gaps presented and you can
10:48take that retrace rejection displacement
10:51candle whatever to that higher time
10:54frame draw liquidity presented. Right
10:56now
10:58you also want to be careful because you
11:00can get trapped on the one minute. Okay.
11:02So that's why, like I said earlier, you
11:04have to look at the 5-minut, you have to
11:06look at the 15-minute to see if we're
11:08actually creating gaps or if we're
11:10creating structure, right? Clear market
11:12structure that's going in one direction.
11:16All right, everything in the bullish um
11:19scenarios apply on the bearish scenarios
11:22as well. There is absolutely no
11:24difference. Okay, so I think we got all
11:27the basics out of the way. So now let's
11:29honestly just go into examples. Okay,
11:34I have marked out some few examples
11:36right here. Um we're actually going to
11:38go to a trade from um I guess well it
11:43won't be today when you're watching it,
11:45but uh this is Thursday's trade where I
11:49took a trade off of a 5m minute flip.
11:52All right. So, there's a lot there's a
11:53bunch of examples
11:56um um including failed trades and you
11:58know good trades just in today's price
12:01action or this day's price action.
12:04Right? So, let's just go back to
12:09replay trading and let me show you what
12:11I'm talking about. Okay.
12:13On the
12:17Yeah, let's go. Uh did I forget
12:19something? I feel like I forgot
12:21something. Okay, I think I did for
12:24forget something. Okay, one last thing.
12:26I'm sorry, guys. Uh, let me actually
12:30let's exit replay mode.
12:34All right, one more drawn liquidity
12:36target that I forgot to mention. Data
12:38highs slash
12:41lows. All right,
12:44so what consists of data highs and data
12:46lows? So, this is when red folder news
12:48appears. I'm talking CPI, I'm talking
12:50PPI, FOMC. Well, FOMC is a little later
12:54in the day. Um, NFP, right? You have
12:56data highs and data lows that form.
12:58You'll also see an example of this on a
13:00CPI trade. Um, but basically, you either
13:05want to see one of those two things get
13:07swept, either a data high or a data low.
13:10Um, usually one or the other will get
13:12swept unless the day is completely
13:14ranging. And obviously when the day is
13:17ranging you should not be willing to
13:18take a trade anyway. All right. So these
13:21are the four draw liquidities to target.
13:23So now we can actually go into the
13:26examples. All right. Finally. Okay.
13:31All right.
13:33All right. Cool. I think this got wiped
13:36away, but it's okay. It's just from
13:38today anyway. We can go back and remark
13:40this out. All right. Going back to
13:489:30. Uh, one second actually.
13:53One second.
13:58Thursday.
14:03Was it later? Oh, it's all the way over
14:06here. My fault. Okay, let's go all the
14:10way over here to Thursday's price
14:13action. Okay,
14:16we'll start at
14:199 right here. We'll start at 9:00 a.m.
14:22So, let's go real quick. What do we have
14:25today? Okay,
14:27boom. We're in this hourly fair value
14:29gap right here. Okay, we're rejecting
14:32off of it. Look at where price I guess
14:35right here. here. It's a little choppy,
14:36but clearly price wants to go higher
14:39based off of all of this bullish
14:41structure that we're seeing right here,
14:43right? We're respecting this outerly
14:45gap. We're rejecting off of it. We're
14:46clearly going higher. We have this high
14:49right here. And then also, if you drop
14:51down to the 15-minute, right? These
14:53equal highs right here, as you can see,
14:55which line up with London highs. And on
14:58top of that, on the 15-minute, um, these
15:01were actually New York AM session highs.
15:05or PM session highs um from Tuesday. But
15:09honestly, like I said earlier when I was
15:12explaining the framework,
15:14I don't really care that it's a New York
15:16PM session high. I care about this
15:18because it is a swing high, right?
15:20There's a three candle sequence and this
15:21the middle uh wick is the highest point.
15:24All right? And it's also
15:27uh close to this high. So it's like
15:29relative equal highs on top of that as
15:30well, right? So, those are also good
15:33draws on liquidity. Relative equal
15:34highs. I forgot to mention that.
15:36Relative equal highs, relative equal
15:38lows, um, equal highs, equal lows, like
15:40you see right here, they are good draws
15:43on liquidity. Okay, so as you can see
15:46right here, we are clearly bullish and
15:48we want that to continue on um the
15:54into market open, right? So, as you can
15:57see right here in market open, we tap
16:00back into this hourly gap and we take
16:04out these lows right here. So, we take
16:06out liquidity inside of a gap, which is
16:08very nice to see, right? And then we
16:11reject off of it pretty heavily. And
16:13then on the 5m minute, what do we see?
16:15Clear price action all the way right
16:18here. But what I would like to see is
16:22since there was not really any entry cuz
16:24there was no retrace,
16:26I would like to see a retrace lower,
16:29right? Cuz that's part of the model.
16:30You're not trying to long the top
16:32anywhere. You're trying to long off a
16:34retrace. You want to see a retrace and
16:36then back to our drawn liquidity, which
16:39are those swing highs. Okay, that is
16:42what we're looking for. Now, we see
16:43clean volume right here. If you look at
16:45the one minute, there was also clean
16:48volume with these candles, but then we
16:50kind of died down, right? As you can
16:51see, we are clearly kind of slowing down
16:54as we get to the top right here. Now, at
16:57this point, right, some I saw some
17:00people on this day, they actually ended
17:02up trying to take a one minute flip.
17:05Okay, compare these candles to these
17:08candles. Look how
17:10look look look at the volume of these
17:12two candles compared to the rest of
17:14these candles, right? You're obviously
17:16not seeing much and you're kind of
17:18chasing the top if you're trying to long
17:20to these highs right here. Okay, so you
17:22can see we actually end up chopping a
17:25little bit with these two candles right
17:27here and then I guess we tap into this
17:30one minute gap right here and then you
17:33get I uh you get a reaction out of it,
17:35right? This little reaction right here.
17:38Now, I don't like this because I I
17:40didn't take this at least because I see
17:42that volume is dying down. Um, we're
17:45getting pretty close to this top right
17:47here and I'm expecting more of a deeper
17:50retrace because of these candles right
17:52here, right? Just because from market
17:55experience, I've kind of realized that
17:57and um I've realized from my mistakes
17:59when I used to take trades like this,
18:01I'd always find myself self usually
18:03getting stopped out. So instead I wait
18:05for a
18:08better retrace right which we actually
18:10don't end up getting anywhere. Um on the
18:13five minute there is no 5minute gaps
18:15that it retraced to and price just ends
18:18up chopping like expected and then we
18:20end up taking this out right here. Now
18:23the thing is when we take out one drawn
18:25liquidity we still have another drawn
18:27liquidity right here. So,
18:31um, we displace higher and then once
18:33again, look where we're at, right? We
18:35see volume, but we don't get any
18:38confirmation out of this minute gap
18:40right here. These are not candles that
18:42you want to be longing off of. Now,
18:45imagine you placed a long right here and
18:48you're targeting this right here and
18:50then your stop would be right here,
18:53right? Well,
18:55this or at least your actual stop would
18:58be right here, right? This
19:00risk-to-reward is not good at all. This
19:02is a 0.8 risk-to-reward. Okay, there is
19:06no point of you trying to chase price
19:09all the way at the top if candles look
19:12like this. Okay, there is no clear
19:13confirmation.
19:15Um,
19:17and as you can see, we do dip lower. And
19:19then, you know, some people they I guess
19:22check the 2-minut, they check the 3
19:24minute. All right, I guess we're in this
19:253minut gap right here. So, they extend
19:27the gap right here.
19:30But the thing is there's still not that
19:33great confirmation coming out of this
19:35gap. All right, this is not that great
19:38considering the fact that we have all
19:40these candles right here and I'm not
19:43really expecting price to deliver off of
19:46that. Right, we also have this candle
19:48right here. this confirmation
19:50confirmation as I will say but again if
19:53you're entering off of this you have to
19:55realize your risk to reward is very very
19:57very very bad very bad look at this
20:01risk-to-reward 0.4 for risk-to-reward
20:04and I guess your break even is at an
20:06internal high or an internal low and you
20:08end up cooking yourself even if it plays
20:11out there's no reason to take a trade in
20:14something that looks like this right so
20:16you're going to wait for more
20:18confirmation wait for a deeper retrace
20:21because as you see we're stalling before
20:23taking a draw liquidity so that calls
20:25for potentially a deeper retrace all
20:27right what do we get right here a deeper
20:29retrace into what well nothing we didn't
20:32tap this little 5minute gap right here.
20:35Um, we might have SMTED at this gap
20:37right here, but there is nothing that's
20:40telling me that I should be going long.
20:43All right, price ends up kind of
20:45chopping a little bit, but we can still
20:47check to see if we are any or rejecting
20:50off of any gaps. So, we have this
20:525minute gap right here, as we can see.
20:54And we'll check the 15-minute gap
20:56because I'll actually show you guys the
20:57trade that I took, right? That's the
20:59five minute, but we're also in this
21:0115-minute gap right here. All right,
21:05you want to look at the highest time
21:07frame gap within a leg usually, right?
21:10You have this 5minute gap right here,
21:12but then all of these gaps combined to
21:16one 15-minute gap right here. So, look
21:18at the highest time frame fair value gap
21:20within a leg during intraday. So, we
21:24reject off of this right here. we get.
21:25Now we can drop on to the one minute to
21:28see if we get any candles um any
21:31displacing type of candles. Right? As
21:34you can see, we have this nice wick
21:36rejection out of that 15-minute for
21:38value gap and then we end up displacing
21:41a bit higher. Now
21:44on the 5m minute, right, you can enter
21:47off of this 5m minute close right here.
21:49This is very good, right? This would be
21:51a one:1 risk-to-reward.
21:54Now, with my market experience, I just
21:56want to show you guys um
21:59when I see something like this happen,
22:01right? Let's go back to the higher time
22:04frame narrative again. We are in this
22:06hourly gap. We take out London highs
22:10pre-market, right? We go back and we
22:12take out these highs again. We stall a
22:14little bit. We get a deeper retrace. And
22:16as you can see, we've edged these this
22:19swing high all the way on the 15-minute,
22:21right? We edge this swing high right
22:23here and then we retrace into a higher
22:25time frame gap, right? Like a 15-minute
22:28gap, which is the singular fair value
22:30gap in this initial leg higher, right?
22:33After seeing a nice rejection out of it,
22:36I'm more confident with taking a trade
22:38that looks like this and not waiting for
22:42like a 5minute close. Um, my actual
22:44entry was at like 46.25
22:49or something. So it was actually in the
22:50middle of these candles just because
22:52this reaction was very nice and the fact
22:57that you know we edged these highs once
22:59we retraced into a gap and got a nice
23:02reaction out of it. So I don't really
23:03need more confirmation. I'm more playing
23:07um so on the fact that we are just going
23:10to continue higher because we got a deep
23:13retrace and a nice rejection out of it.
23:16So my stop over here was at the bodies
23:19of the fivem minute right because my
23:21trade idea isn't validated if this
23:23bullish candle gets disrespected
23:26initially. So I don't have to risk those
23:28extra points because realistically if
23:32this 5minut
23:34candle gets invalidated by the next
23:365minute candle then we're going to
23:39probably go and take out these lows
23:40anyway. Right? So, I put my trade right
23:44there and then boom, we end up stalling,
23:46but we end up taking profit, right? Um,
23:49I'm also not going to lie, price action
23:52has been a little bit weird, a little
23:54bit wonky. So, you also have to be
23:55careful of that as well. Usually, it'll
23:58just end up delivering
24:00um like that without stalling like three
24:04times, right? We stalled three times
24:07right here before taking this high. Um,
24:10usually you don't see that, right? When
24:12you see something like this, it'll
24:14usually get taken out in a few candles,
24:16but it is what it is, okay? You cannot
24:19do much about that. You can only um give
24:22or take what the market gives you. And
24:24this is what the market has given us in
24:28this example right here. Okay. So, let's
24:32now go to the next example. So, um, if
24:36this video is long, there is a reason
24:38why it is long because I'm going more in
24:40depth with these examples. So, please,
24:43please, please, please watch the videos,
24:46all the videos that I will be posting
24:49um
24:51because they will help you understand
24:54how to trade this model. Okay,
25:00so let's see if we have a trade right
25:04here.
25:07I did mark them out um beforehand. So
25:12just want to Okay. Yeah. All right. I
25:16did mark out a trade here. So let us go
25:18back
25:23to this right here. Okay. So we have a
25:27data low right here. Okay. At 8:30.
25:31This is a news candle. Okay. We have a
25:35data high and then we have a data low.
25:37If you look at the hourly time frame, um
25:40actually it already it plays an hour
25:42worth of price action, so I can't really
25:44show you, but basically this is a
25:47scenario where you're um either trying
25:50to target data low or you're trying to
25:53target data high. But data high in this
25:55case is right here and price is pretty
25:57choppy here. So most likely you're not
25:59going to get an entry to that. Okay. So
26:02now let's go and go through price. Hold
26:06on. Let's go back again.
26:11Right, as we can see right here, price
26:15is displacing heavily lower. Okay, price
26:18is displacing lower and we want to see a
26:22continuation to this data low right
26:24here. Okay, so we play a few more
26:27candles. We see a retrace
26:31um into nothing actually. But then we
26:34get an invalidation right here. Boom.
26:37This gets taken. But there was no actual
26:41entry on this. I don't know why I marked
26:43this out. Um
26:46that is a little bit weird. I don't
26:48think there was a trade here because
26:50otherwise I would have marked it out. Uh
26:54yeah, but honestly we can still review
26:55this price action, right? This is kind
26:57of pretty simple, right? We still have a
26:59data low right here. Um, but the thing
27:01is we have these displacing candles
27:03right here. And
27:07was there a London lows? No, there
27:10wasn't. This was just strictly a data
27:11low, looks like. So, we have this data
27:14low right here. We see some displacement
27:15candles, but the thing is, um,
27:18obviously, you're not going to get a
27:19retrace into a 5m minute gap because
27:21there was no 5-minute gap since the
27:23target was so close, which was right
27:25here. So another scenario where you try
27:29to take a trade off of a one minute time
27:32frame if it presents itself but over
27:34here it obviously did not present itself
27:36because you have these displacing
27:38candles. Yes, but where are the fair
27:40value gaps created? Nothing. You get
27:42this retrace into nowhere. Um, if you go
27:47on to the 30 second time frame, it might
27:49have retraced into a 30-cond gap, but I
27:52only take trades off of the 30 second
27:56only if um there is, you know, a gap on
28:00the 1 minute or the 2 minute and I'm
28:02looking for some sort of inverse fair
28:04for value gap, right? And price action
28:05kind of looks like this and the target
28:07is pretty close. Okay, so there was no
28:10entry here. That's fine. But I just
28:12wanted to go over this and show you that
28:15to take trades on the one minute or uh
28:18reactions or flips off a two-minut or a
28:20three minute and you still enter on the
28:22one minute candles kind of have to look
28:24like this, right? We're displacing
28:26heavily. There isn't really time to
28:28create a 5minute gap or a 15-minute gap.
28:31And you know, there's strong volume.
28:33Okay? So, pay attention to that when
28:35you're trying to catch those kind of
28:36flips. But now let's go into the actual
28:41example. I don't know why that low was
28:43even marked out, but um that's fine
28:46because we have more examples and
28:48another data
28:51uh
28:53low ex or a data low trade example.
28:57Okay. All the way back here.
29:03Let me
29:05let's actually just go all the way to
29:099:15.
29:10Okay, let's start off from the hourly.
29:13All right, what do we see in the hourly?
29:15Okay, well, ignore this by the way
29:17because with back testing I can't really
29:21ignore this unless I actually skip
29:23another hour behind which is honestly
29:25fine because um it will help me explain
29:27this a little bit more. Okay, so this
29:29was a CPI day. We had news at 8:30,
29:33right? Let me show you really quick. We
29:34had news at 8:30. We have this high
29:37right here that's created. And then we
29:38have this low right here that is
29:40created, right? Data high, data low.
29:42Okay. Now, on the 15-minute um we can
29:45see we have London lows right here
29:47that's uh lined up with an hourly fair
29:51value gap that's marked right here. All
29:53right. So, these are the best types of
29:56draw liquidities. Honestly, when you see
29:58two things that are line or that are
29:59aligned with each other, right, you have
30:02a session low London lows that is lined
30:05up with an unfilled higher time frame
30:07fair value gap, which is that hourly
30:09fair value gap right here. And on top of
30:12that, we also have data lows right here
30:15as well and data highs right here that
30:16we end up smting with ES um where ES
30:20took out or uh NQ took out um data highs
30:24and ES did not take out data highs which
30:27is a bearish SMT
30:30and that is in favor for us because we
30:32have draws on liquidity lower. Okay. So
30:36now if we skip over
30:39to the fivem minute time frame, play out
30:41some candles. Let me go back really
30:44quick.
30:47Right, I'm going to go on the one minute
30:48time frame now.
30:51Okay, you end up seeing that we have SMT
30:54and then and mark it open. Boom. What do
30:56we see? Large displacing candles, right?
30:59Large displacing candles. And at 8:30
31:03you mark out your data low right with
31:05your news candles it is within the 1
31:08minute time frame. Okay the moment the
31:11news releases that is where the data low
31:13and the data high forms. All right. So,
31:16as you can see right here, we are
31:17displacing lower. There isn't really
31:18anything created on the fivem minute yet
31:20because market just opened. And
31:22obviously in this case, since we have
31:24these displacing candles and the target
31:26is pretty near, right, you have this low
31:28and then you have this London low/
31:31unfilled higher time frame for
31:36unfilled higher time frame for value gap
31:38that's lined up. You will want to take a
31:41trade off of the one minute, two minute,
31:43or three minute time frame. All right.
31:45So, that's the thought process you
31:46should kind of be going into when you
31:48see a near target and um you see
31:52displacing candles on the lower time
31:55frame, right? So, playing out some
31:56candles right here. Again, you won't get
31:58anything on the 5minut time frame
32:00because the 5minute gap is all the way
32:02right here and it wouldn't make sense
32:04for price to retrace back all the way
32:06here after creating this entire move
32:08down especially paired with the SMT to
32:11go and take out lower targets. Right? So
32:13you have to think about it logically as
32:14well. Don't just mark out a fiveminute
32:17gap just because you see it on your
32:19screen. Right? Use context. Use and
32:23absolutely observe what is going on
32:27during the live markets. Right? So going
32:31back now on the one minute, what do we
32:34see? There are no fair value gaps
32:36created. Okay, that's fine. We can go on
32:38the two-minut. What do we see here? All
32:40right, we have a two-minute fair value
32:42gap. There's a tiny one, but it doesn't
32:44matter. A fair value gap is a fair value
32:46gap. So, what we want to see is a
32:48retrace into it and a rejection out of
32:49it. Now, I will say that I did take this
32:52trade on the 30 secondond time frame
32:54because there were no one minute um fair
32:57value gaps presented to form an inverse
33:01fair value gap. Not that it you need it
33:03every single time, but I would like to
33:05see
33:07at least some sort of fair value gap,
33:09right? Just for that extra confirmation.
33:11So I can't go to the 30 secondond time
33:13frame over here because I don't have
33:14data to access it. Um but we get a
33:18rejection out of it. There is a 30
33:19second fair value gap singular fair
33:22value gap in this leg up that gets
33:23inverted
33:25with this candle right here. So as you
33:28can see we bought up right. We had this
33:31nice retrace and it instantly instantly
33:33gets invalidated with this down close
33:36candle. Look how strong this downclo
33:38candle is. That tells me that okay,
33:40since we are so close to data lows,
33:42we're going to go take it and I can um
33:47go, you know, break even after taking
33:50out data lows, right? So, your
33:54uh break even points should be at
33:56internal lows or internal highs. So,
33:58technically, this is internal low
34:00because this is what put in that retrace
34:02higher
34:04before, you know, eventually going lower
34:06again. So this would be my break even
34:08point, right? So I place a trade.
34:12Boom. End up going break even here.
34:16And then you know we take it to this uh
34:19hourly for valley gap. Now another thing
34:22that I want to say about break evens.
34:24All right. The point is you want to
34:27build I am trying to make you guys build
34:29your discretion as much as possible.
34:32Don't think about going break even
34:34mechanically. Right? If you have
34:36conviction in the trade and you think
34:38that your entry is very close to a break
34:41even point where you can get wicked and
34:43then get stopped break even and then the
34:46trade ends up running without you. You
34:48have to think about it. You have to
34:50analyze your situation that you're in
34:52and see if your target is, you know,
34:54strong enough where price is actually
34:57drawn towards it and you know or you
34:59have a higher probability of you not
35:02getting stopped out. not stopped out
35:05break even, but stopped out at your
35:07original stop-loss before going out and
35:09taking your target. Right? So, you have
35:12to be aware of that. Don't go break even
35:14mechanically every single time. There
35:16are times where you go break even and
35:18there are times where you don't go break
35:19even. Right? When your target isn't as
35:21strong, when you don't have something as
35:23strong as this, right? For example,
35:25London lows lined up with the higher
35:26time frame fair value gap lined up with
35:28data lows right here lined up with the
35:30SMT, right? Everything was good about
35:33this displacing candles, retrace,
35:35instant retracement invalidation. This
35:38is a point where maybe you don't want to
35:41go break even right when it wicks out
35:43this break even point because there's a
35:45chance that you can get stopped out
35:47break even and then
35:50um price ends up running without you.
35:52Right? So building that discretion is
35:53very very important. I can only show you
35:55the framework. I can only show you the
35:57examples, but at the end of the day,
35:59it's up to you to actually apply this in
36:02real time. So, this was a very good
36:04setup, right? Everything was about this
36:06was perfect. Um, the only thing was, you
36:08know, there weren't any one minute uh
36:11fair value gaps created, but these this
36:13was good displacement.
36:15Now, let's go on to the next example
36:23really quick.
36:29I think this might be the last example.
36:32I'm pretty sure. I'm just going to
36:34scroll a little bit to the left again.
36:35Okay. I think there was a one right here
36:38as well. We'll go into that as well.
36:40Yeah. All right. So, there's two more
36:42examples that I want to go over really
36:44quick. Um, obviously I posted these on
36:46my trade recaps as well, but I don't
36:48really go as much in depth as I can in a
36:51video like this. So, I'm going to break
36:54this down for you and
36:57show you
37:00what I mean. All right. What the hell is
37:02this?
37:04Uh, okay.
37:09Market replay. Oh, I'm already in market
37:11replay. I think I'm tweaking, man.
37:14All right.
37:18Right here. Okay. Let's start off from
37:20the hourly again. All right. Actually,
37:22let's skip an hour again. Okay,
37:28so as we can see right here, um I assume
37:31I'm assuming um there was a SMT at this
37:34level right here because why am I
37:37assuming there was I can't pull up ES
37:39right now in replay mode because I can't
37:41go into replay mode at two pairs at
37:43once. But I am assuming there is a SMT
37:48here. If there's not, that's okay. But
37:51I'm assuming there's SMT here because
37:52obviously there are no higher time frame
37:54for valley gaps right here. And we're
37:56getting a displacement candle out of
37:58edging this low. Um, and on top of that,
38:02price action is looking kind of bearish
38:05right here as well. So, as you can see,
38:08I have a trade marked out for longs. So,
38:09I think if I were, you know, if I were
38:12to replay this um in my head to where I
38:16was thinking of it on this day, I would
38:19probably only look for longs if there
38:21was some sort of SMT, right? Or if there
38:23was a nice rejection out of this uh or
38:26if there was a nice inverse out of this
38:28hourly gap, right?
38:30So, let's play out some candles and see
38:33what ends up happening today. All right.
38:35Um we have a clear target as well.
38:38London highs. Let me go back to the
38:4015-minute London highs right here. They
38:42are also relative equal highs. And um we
38:46also have this high right here that is
38:48tapped into an hourly fair value gap.
38:51Right. Um
38:54now let's play out some candles and see
38:57what ends up happening. Right. So now we
38:59are at 9:30. So what do we see right
39:01here? All right.
39:04All right. All right. Right. We see
39:06price is now going higher. Okay, price
39:10is displacing higher. Obviously, we're
39:12not rejecting off of any gaps on the
39:14lower time frame, but we're going
39:17basically based off of displacement,
39:19right? What do we see right here? Okay,
39:21this 5m minute is absolutely getting ran
39:23through. As you can see right here, we
39:25have this 5minute gap right here, right?
39:28It is absolutely getting violated. And
39:31now all we're looking for is a retrace
39:33into our um target right here. Okay,
39:39what do we get?
39:42Actually, let me go back right. What do
39:45we get? So, we get chop right here.
39:47Okay, we get a little bit of chop,
39:49right? there are no gaps presented and
39:52um you want to see if there's any higher
39:57time frames that price can retrace into,
39:59right? The same old stuff. So, we're
40:02waiting for this 5minute gap to open. If
40:04we play out to a few more candles, you
40:06will see that on the 5m minute, we
40:10actually tap into this 5m minute as you
40:13can see right here. Now, the retrace
40:16does not really matter as much as the
40:18reaction. Okay, if you even tap into a
40:22gap, right,
40:24you are still rebalancing price. Price
40:28is being rebalanced by tapping into this
40:30fair value gap right here. What does
40:32price tend to do? It goes out and seeks
40:35liquidity and then rebalances into
40:36inefficiencies. So that's what price is
40:39doing. It takes out highs, takes out
40:41lows, and then rebalances into f uh
40:43inefficiencies as for value gaps. So we
40:45rebalance into here and then what do we
40:48get? a nice bullish candle confirmation
40:51out of the tap of the five minute. Now,
40:54this is clean even though we have chop
40:56right here because this candle
40:59invalidates all this chop that's going
41:01on right here. Okay. Now, where would be
41:04my point of break even at an internal
41:06high of course, right? Break even at
41:08internal high, TP at my London highs,
41:11which is my higher time frame drawn
41:14liquidity.
41:15And what happens? We end up getting um
41:19TP by the absolute tick because I put my
41:23take profit always a tick above my
41:26target because what does price need to
41:27do? It needs to go out and sweep the
41:29draw liquidity, right? needs to sweep
41:32out liquidity. So why not get that extra
41:35tick by putting your TP one tick above
41:38the drawn liquidity.
41:41So, like I said again, you're looking
41:44for one minute or two minute or three
41:47minute gap retracements if volume is
41:51pretty high and candles are displacing
41:54in one direction and it looks like we're
41:57not going to create a 5m minute or a
42:0015minute gap and price is just going to
42:02run and then you can take quick one
42:05minute flips with a clear higher time
42:07frame target of course. Okay, so that is
42:11that trade right here.
42:14And now we're going into I think the
42:17very last example. Um, this video is
42:21around 40 minutes long. So,
42:25this is actually pretty good. I like
42:27this.
42:29I'm giving a lot of good content right
42:33now. Um, okay. Let's go all the way back
42:39to
42:42Let's go back to 8:00 a.m.
42:46All right.
42:47What are we seeing here? All right. On
42:49the hourly.
42:52Um, let's actually play one more candle.
42:57Maybe one more. Okay. So, what do we see
43:00right here? Right. Actually, let's go
43:02back a little bit.
43:06Just go back to right here. Okay, so on
43:10the higher time. All right, whatever,
43:11bro. Just
43:16I forgot it always plays an hour of
43:18price action. Okay, so on the higher
43:19time frame, as you can see, we are
43:21pretty choppy. Okay, all of this right
43:23here is just complete chop. This is all
43:25complete chop. There are no fair value
43:27gaps. Nothing is going on here. Now, in
43:31these scenarios, you're basically
43:33waiting for a breakout. I also explained
43:35this in my YouTube video. So, please, if
43:37you haven't, go watch the YouTube video.
43:39I don't know how you made it this far
43:41in, but if you did, go back and watch
43:43the YouTube video. All right? So, you're
43:46waiting for a breakout either at this
43:48high right here or at this low right
43:50here. Right? These are your range high.
43:53This is your range high and this is your
43:54range low. If you get a breakout with
43:56the range low, then you're looking to
43:57target lower prices. If you get a break
43:59out of the range high, then you're
44:00looking to target higher prices, right?
44:02Which is all-time highs in this
44:03scenario. Now, if you look at the rest
44:05of price action, you can see that we're
44:07relatively bullish. So, even though
44:09there are no fair value gaps beside this
44:12little hourly gap right here, as you can
44:14see, I'm still looking for price to
44:17continue higher. Okay. So, as you can
44:20see right here, the next candle
44:23immediately rips up and now we're
44:25getting pretty close to market open.
44:27Okay,
44:29let's play out some candles. Oh, wait.
44:31This is market open. Um, let me go back
44:35to
44:389:15. Play out some candles.
44:42All right, so as you can see right here,
44:44okay, I also went over this in my trade
44:46recap. Uh,
44:50let me go to the one minute now so you
44:52can see a little bit better. Right,
44:549:30, even pre-market, what do we do? we
44:57end up just ripping. All right. And then
44:59the rest of the day, what ends up
45:01happening? Volume dies down, but clearly
45:04you see that we're going in one
45:05direction and then volume picks up picks
45:08back up a little bit over here. Now, is
45:11there a chance for price to retrace into
45:13a 5m minute gap or 15-minute gap? Well,
45:16no. Probably not because look how it's
45:20just moving in one direction. It's very
45:22obvious. Like, this model is not hard at
45:24all. It's very simple. But the point or
45:27the hardest part is is knowing um how to
45:31avoid the bad setups because the good
45:34setups are very easy to see. But the
45:36thing is you have to recognize market
45:38conditions and see if you're going to
45:39get more of a deeper retrace or get a
45:42little bit of a smaller retrace. So in
45:44scenarios like this where the one minute
45:46is just completely ripping and there is
45:48no signs of retracement at all, you are
45:50more comfortable to take a retrace off
45:52of a one minute time frame or a twominut
45:54time frame or a 3 minute time frame.
45:56Right? Anything that looks good enough.
46:01Right? As you can see here, price is
46:03stalling um this one minute right here.
46:08Right? Some people took it off of this
46:10one minute. Um, back in the free
46:13Discord, I saw one pe some people took
46:16it off this one minute. Now, what I'm
46:18going to say here is
46:21this one minute right here, right? This
46:23candle right here. Your break even point
46:26would be like right here or technically
46:28this little high right here. Okay? So
46:30your entry would be here and then I
46:33guess your stop loss would be right here
46:35and then your takerit would be right
46:38here. Okay, risk-to-reward wise that is
46:41not bad. But your internal high is so so
46:45close. And honestly, just off of this
46:48one minute gap, it's like the the
46:52confirmation candle is obviously you can
46:55get a better confirmation candle and if
46:58it does, it goes past this high. It'll
47:00close above this high and you won't be
47:02able to get an entry because you have no
47:04point to go break even at, right? Um
47:07that is just part of the model uh
47:09framework. Okay. So, this is why I
47:12didn't wait for this entry. And after
47:14this, look what ends up happening,
47:17right? I didn't take this entry because
47:19with my market experience, I've noticed
47:22that, you know, these setups don't
47:24actually tend to play out. Okay. Um, as
47:28you can see, we go back into this chop
47:30right here. So, now this is now
47:32classified as chop, right? Before this
47:35candle, it looks like we are, you know,
47:37displacing now. But after that next
47:40candle, we're back in this range again.
47:43So now it is chopped. Now after not
47:45taking this entry because I realized
47:47that all right, we can probably wait for
47:51a uh higher time for higher time frame
47:56fair value gap. I can't pronounce that.
47:58Oh my god. A higher time frame for a
48:00value gap because we are now stalling,
48:03right? we wait for that 5m minute gap to
48:06open up or that 15-minute gap to open
48:08up. Right now the time is 9:51. So in 4
48:12minutes there will be a
48:155minute gap that opens up right here.
48:17Right in this area right here. So I'll
48:20wait for that because I'm not trying to
48:22take a trade within this chop right
48:24here.
48:26As you can see
48:28we do create a 5m minute gap that opens
48:31up pretty soon. Right. Again, let me go
48:35back to this. I guess you could say fake
48:38out again. All right. Some people also
48:42took a setup off of this displacement
48:45candle. Now, this is bad again even
48:48though we tapped into this minute fair
48:50value gap. This is pattern trading now
48:53because now we realize that we are
48:55officially in chop due to due to these
48:58candles right here. and taking an entry
49:01off of this is not really reasonable.
49:03Also, considering the fact that in one
49:05minute a new fivem minutee gap opens up.
49:08So, as you can see right here, boom, new
49:125minute gap opens up. We'll tap into it
49:14with a few more one minute candles and
49:16then we'll get a nice displacement out.
49:21Let me actually mark this out really
49:22quick so you can see when it actually
49:24taps into on the one minute.
49:30Boom. Taps into it. Now we're looking
49:32for a strong bullish candle. What do we
49:35see? This is a strong bullish candle
49:37that taps into a fiveminute gap. Even
49:40though there's chop right here, we're
49:42tapping into a five-minute gap that
49:44holds more power over any of these tiny
49:46little one minute gaps right here. Okay?
49:48And we get a strong rejection out of it.
49:50So now I'm more confident in taking this
49:53trade due to the fact that we stalled a
49:56little bit. Um we you know had these
49:58fake out happens or we had these uh fake
50:01out that ended up um occurring and then
50:05on the 5m minute we create this
50:07fiveminute gap and then we retrace into
50:08it and then we get a strong rejection
50:10out of it which is right here. You take
50:12that trade go break even at this high
50:14right here and then look at that right
50:16look at this candle compared to the rest
50:18of these candles. That's how you know
50:19the trade is good. When your takeprofit
50:21gets hit in literally one candle, one
50:23candle. So that is where you have to
50:27kind of differentiate when it's good to
50:31um take trades off of, you know, just a
50:34one minute gap or a fivem minute gap,
50:36right? As you can see, volume ends up
50:37dying out. And taking this would not be
50:40the best entry. This candle would not be
50:42the best entry cuz your break even is so
50:44close. And taking this right here, this
50:48displacement candle is also not the best
50:49entry cuz we are now officially in chop.
50:53And in 1 minute, the 5m minute gap
50:56opens.
50:58So that's basically it for the model v
51:02video and these examples. Um,
51:06I hope this video helped. This was a
51:08very very
51:10detailed video into the model. And of
51:14course, use everything with discretion.
51:16Don't think of any of these examples
51:18mechanically. I'll see you guys in the
51:20next video.