BITCOIN: DO NOT GET FOOLED!!! #BTC Price Prediction & Crypto Crash News Today

0:00All right, let's get right into the

0:01Bitcoin chart for today starting on this

0:034-hour time frame because we are about

0:05to head into a new week of trading.

0:07Right now, we still have this confirmed

0:09bearish divergence in the charts, which

0:11is when you have higher highs in the

0:12Bitcoin price and lower highs in the RSI

0:15momentum indicator. Typically, this

0:17points towards us getting a break from

0:18all of this bullish price action we saw

0:20here recently. And so far, this has just

0:23been playing out in the form of some

0:24choppy sideways price action. Although,

0:26potentially we could also see some

0:28bearish momentum. Now, that is of course

0:31until we actually invalidate this by

0:33getting a candle close on the 4-hour

0:35time frame above this 80.5k level.

0:38Besides that, if we take a look at the

0:40market structure here on the 4-hour time

0:42frame, you can see that we actually have

0:44a lower high after this high came in and

0:47we have a lower low as well. So, this

0:49has now confirmed a bearish market

0:51structure. So long as we are not seeing

0:53candle closes above this 80.2k level. Of

0:56course, by the time that you're watching

0:58this video, this could well be invalid

1:00dated, but for now, I am still bearish

1:02biased on Bitcoin. And as I mentioned in

1:05my last video, which somehow got an

1:07insane amount of views. I don't know why

1:09that happened. But anyway, as I

1:11mentioned in that video, I am actually

1:13in a short position on Bitcoin. So, let

1:15me go ahead and cover that right away.

1:17Starting off with some support and

1:19resistance levels on the daily time

1:21frame. Right now, we have resistance to

1:23the upside sitting from 80 all the way

1:24up to 82k and support to the downside

1:27sitting from 78 down to 76,000.

1:30Although, if we break below 76k, the

1:33next area of support below that is

1:35already sitting from 73,000

1:38all the way down to 71.5k.

1:40Besides that, we also have a bearish

1:42divergence confirmed on the daily time

1:44frame here. So, the same setup as that

1:464-hour time frame that I mentioned

1:48earlier. Again, the point of

1:49invalidation for this is about 80.5k

1:53and here we are talking about daily

1:55candle closes. So, of course, if we see

1:57that happen, then it completely opens

1:58the door to more bullish price action

2:00for Bitcoin once again. But, for now, I

2:02haven't seen that yet, and therefore, I

2:04am still bearish biased. Besides that,

2:06the RSI on the daily time frame is still

2:09in deep overbought territory here. So,

2:12potentially, we could see a bit of a

2:13reset over the coming days to

2:15potentially weeks if we don't invalidate

2:18this bearish divergence. Now, the way

2:20the RSI actually resets is, for example,

2:23if the price is just chopping sideways,

2:25showing some neutral momentum, then this

2:28will slowly trend down towards this 50

2:30level here, the neutral area in terms of

2:33the momentum that Bitcoin is showing.

2:35However, if we get a bearish momentum,

2:37then you will see this RSI also crashing

2:39to the downside, and it can potentially

2:41even go well below the 50 level as well.

2:44For now, though, if I just zoom out to

2:46this weekly time frame, and we take a

2:48look at the market structure once again,

2:50here you can clearly see that, first of

2:52all, we are in a bearish market

2:54structure still, and the point where we

2:56actually flip back into a bullish market

2:59structure is if we are breaking through

3:01this roughly 83, 84K level with candle

3:05closes, and then, after that, also

3:07getting a higher low confirmed, because

3:10we need a higher high and a higher low

3:12to confirm before we can say that we are

3:14in a bullish market structure once

3:16again. So, that is roughly what I'm

3:18looking out for in terms of this weekly

3:20time frame. And, as I mentioned in my

3:22last video, I'm currently in a short

3:24position because, in my personal

3:27opinion, the risk to reward is actually

3:29great here. For example, if we get one

3:32weekly candle close, for example, at

3:34this 84K level or something like that,

3:36then I'm okay with stepping out of that

3:38short position because I would assume,

3:41at that point, that we are going to be

3:42making a higher low, and then you will

3:44actually see me adding to my spot

3:46position, and potentially some leverage

3:48positions as well, after we actually get

3:51the higher low coming in because of that

3:53would then confirm the new bull market.

3:56However, for now, we haven't seen that

3:58market structure flip yet. So,

3:59therefore, I have a stop loss at about

4:01this 87k level. Meanwhile, if we

4:04actually start to reject here because of

4:06those bearish divergences being in

4:07overbought territory and all of that,

4:10then potentially we are going to be

4:11seeing new lower lows for Bitcoin below

4:14this 58,000 US dollar level later in the

4:17year, which is what provides that

4:19excellent risk to reward ratio for me

4:21personally at least. Moving on to the

4:23Bitcoin ETF flow tables, interestingly,

4:26on Friday we saw a decent-size net

4:29outflow of about 200 million dollars.

4:32And if we just take a look at the last

4:3330 days here, this is actually the first

4:36outflow in about 2 weeks of seeing

4:38nothing but net inflows every single

4:40week. Interestingly, also at a potential

4:44pivot point where we could start to see

4:46Bitcoin rolling over from here. So, I'm

4:48very excited to see what we are going to

4:50get over the coming week because like I

4:52said, we're heading into a new week of

4:54trading. And staying on that one-week

4:56time frame as well in terms of some

4:58technical analysis, for now, we still

5:00have this bearish flag pattern breaking

5:03out to the downside because we haven't

5:05seen an invalidation by us getting a

5:08weekly candle close above this 87k

5:10level. That means that my active price

5:12target at the moment is still 52,000 in

5:15the Bitcoin price. I must say, during a

5:18time like this where we just saw a huge

5:19move to the upside, it is pretty rough

5:21to be making a video telling you guys

5:23that my target is still 52k while

5:25everyone is clowning on me every day.

5:27Even though everyone who followed my

5:29trade got a giant long position,

5:31insanely profitable long position out of

5:34this move here. But, either way, I'm

5:36just going to keep ripping it every day

5:38here

5:39with this 52k price target. It's kind of

5:42similar to this period right here in

5:442024. This is actually where my channel

5:47gained some initial notoriety because I

5:49clocked this descending channel pattern

5:52very early as it was happening. And

5:54meanwhile, every time we reached the top

5:56of this range, everyone was screaming

5:58breakout. And I was one of the only

6:01people saying at the time like no, we

6:02need to see an actual confirmation. Of

6:05course, I also want to be bullish, but I

6:06just need actual confirmation before I

6:08can be bullish. And we saw so many

6:11people getting wrecked here over and

6:13over again. Meanwhile, we were

6:15accumulating in the bottom of the range.

6:18And eventually we got the breakout here

6:20where we then did actually long because

6:22we got the confirmation. I got this

6:24giant trade to the upside. So, that was

6:27a beautiful sight to see. But I think

6:28for you guys that are newer to the

6:30channel here, I think you guys need to

6:31understand how willing I am to just go

6:34completely against what everyone else is

6:36saying. I really do not care what anyone

6:39else is saying about their technical

6:41analysis. And I only pay attention to

6:43what I actually see in the charts

6:46because that is just what works best for

6:48me over time. Of course, I'm not 100%

6:51accurate all the time. I actually get a

6:53bunch of stuff wrong frequently.

6:55However, I'm not here to try to get 100%

6:58of my goals right. I'm actually just

7:00trying to get the odds in my favor where

7:02if I am right, I actually get a huge

7:05payout similar to for example this setup

7:08that I showed you on the daily time

7:09frame where if I am actually correct in

7:12this call, then I get a giant payout

7:15because we might be reaching new lower

7:16lows and I have my risk properly

7:18managed, right? So, that is what I'm

7:20trying to do here on the channel and

7:22showing you guys these swing trades all

7:24publicly. Okay, but let's add one more

7:26layer to this long-term thesis of mine,

7:29which is the two-year Bitcoin

7:31liquidation heat map. As you can see, we

7:33still have massive liquidity to the

7:35downside. So, here we have about $2

7:38billion sitting at 62K. Then we have

7:40another $2.5 billion sitting at 57,000

7:44and even as low as about 50.8k we have

7:47another 2 and 1/2 billion dollars worth

7:50of long liquidations. Now, that is only

7:53what we can see, right? Because

7:54potentially there might be a huge amount

7:56of liquidity below here at 40k, 30k,

8:00whatever, but we simply cannot see that

8:03liquidity. Okay, so either way this has

8:05been today's market update. Thank you

8:07very much for watching once again. By

8:09the way, I have a free trading course,

8:11so if you are interested in learning the

8:12fundamentals of the type of technical

8:14analysis that I showed you in this video

8:16here today, I actually share all that

8:17stuff completely for free on my website

8:20rt1m.com.

8:22But regardless, if you do end up doing

8:23that or not, thank you for watching once

8:25again and I will see you tomorrow in the

8:28next one.