Full transcript
0:00Hey guys, this is Collin with Collin
0:02Talks Crypto. Just giving you a really
0:04quick update. Some of you had asked why
0:07did I set my re-buy level at $70,700,
0:11which I drew right here. I thought this
0:13visual explanation would be the best
0:15answer I could give you. So, this is
0:17where that would be. And it's a couple
0:20of reasons why I put it there. There's
0:22this little cluster right here, and if
0:24you zoom in on like the 4-hour candles,
0:26you can see it a little better. But it
0:28acts as like a little tiny support
0:30level. And so, I wanted to be above that
0:33support level because in a prior bull
0:35run, I think it was last bull run,
0:38there was a similar type of move, and it
0:40broke way up like this, and it did not
0:43go all the way back down to the obvious
0:45support. I would call this neckline of
0:48the inverse head and shoulders the
0:50obvious support level. And in in the
0:52last bull run, it actually didn't make
0:54it back down here. I thought it would.
0:57It may go down here for all I know, but
1:00I'm not going to wait that far because
1:01I'm doing a balance between my original
1:04sells, which are much higher, and
1:07becoming profitable. So, I want to make
1:08sure I'm profitable, which this level
1:10ensures that I'm profitable.
1:12And I also, another reason I placed it
1:14here is because it's above the 200-day
1:18moving average. That's this line right
1:20here. And I don't know exactly where it
1:22will be, but if it continues, and I kind
1:23of extrapolate it out, I would like to
1:26be setting my target of my buy limit
1:28order above that line as another sort of
1:32support level. I'm trying to kind of
1:34guess my support level above as many
1:37logical areas as possible. So, I've got
1:40this little tiny support here, the
1:42200-day moving average here, as well as
1:45the observation that it may not go all
1:48the way back down to where everyone
1:50would expect it to go. This is like, I
1:52would say, the most key level in
1:54Bitcoin. I I aside from an actual
1:56breakout. this is the most key retest
1:58level that stands in Bitcoin right now.
2:02It's the neckline breakout of the
2:04inverse head and shoulders right here,
2:05and it very well may bounce off that.
2:08Let's put it this way. If it does make
2:10it back down here, I don't see it just
2:12slicing through this level in one quick
2:13go. I see it holding a support and
2:16bouncing from it. But, I'm not playing
2:19it that aggressively anymore. And for
2:20all I know, the price could come down
2:22here, retest the range lows. That's
2:24okay. It's okay. I'm not trying to play
2:26it that aggressively. One other factor
2:28is that we are not that far from a
2:30typical 12-month cycle bottom.
2:33We're about 1 month away from what would
2:35be normally a 12-month bear market
2:37cycle. It doesn't have to be 12 months,
2:40but I think that cutting through a lot
2:42of support levels in 1 month would be
2:44very unlikely. Now, it is possible the
2:47bear market could run all the way into
2:49December or something like that. That's
2:50always possible. Anything's possible,
2:52but I'm just going with the likeliest
2:54scenario here. So, I think that it's
2:56likeliest that the bottom's in. And to
2:59me, even if we have a month to go until
3:02sort of a low, I just don't see it
3:03making new lows as the likeliest
3:05outcome, like new cycle lows. In fact, I
3:08think that bouncing from the neckline of
3:10the inverse head and shoulders is
3:12probably
3:13pretty good. Like that's pretty
3:14aggressive of a drop already. Maybe it
3:16goes a little bit lower than that in the
3:18month or two to come, but maybe not,
3:20right? So, just factoring time in as a
3:24factor, you know, there's only so much
3:26damage that can be done to a chart when
3:28you have a bunch of support levels
3:29sitting below it.
3:31I'm trying to get in with my Bitcoin.
3:33I'm trying to buy my Bitcoin back. I'm
3:35trying to have more than I started with,
3:37even if it's not as much as I wanted. I
3:39wanted more. I wanted more down in the
3:40$51,000 range originally, but I'm
3:43modifying my strategy based on what I
3:46see in front of me.
3:47And as I've said, to me, this breakout
3:50move right here is so significant that I
3:52don't want to chance it anymore. You
3:54know, it's like like a triple breakout.
3:56It's a breakout above the neckline. It's
3:58a breakout above this diagonal. This
3:59goes all the way back to the cycle top.
4:01It's a breakout above the 200-day moving
4:04average. Triple breakout right here.
4:06Huge size. To me, that means that the
4:08bottom this bottom right here could be
4:11the cycle low. With I give it 70% odds.
4:14This could be it. So, I'm done playing
4:16around and I'm looking to rebuy. And so,
4:19for me, this is a good compromise. This
4:21is a good balance between being too
4:24greedy down here, perhaps, and being
4:27maybe not greedy enough and just buying
4:28way up here and then regretting it if it
4:30does come back down. That's my answer,
4:32okay? So, that's why I'm buying here.
4:34Partly, yes, it is an arbitrary guess,
4:36you know, as every buy and sell
4:39limit order placement is to some degree.
4:42You never know for sure if your target's
4:44going to get met. I don't say that
4:45everyone has to follow me. I'm not
4:47suggesting that you do. I'm just telling
4:48you what I'm doing. And that's where I'm
4:50looking to rebuy and why.
4:52Thanks very much, guys. Good luck to us
4:54all.