Comment l’été 2026 a changé la France pour toujours

0:02This summer , France was far too hot .

0:04Thousands of people have died during

0:06heat waves , streams have completely

0:07dried up , and massive wildfires have

0:09ravaged entire territories . The problem

0:11is that what we have just experienced

0:13is going to become more and more

0:14frequent and you could suffer the

0:15consequences . However , faced with these

0:17extreme events , here is what our

0:19president said .

0:20We have adapted to global warming , but

0:22we are not adapting to a peak that has

0:23no equivalent today in Europe and has

0:25never had an equivalent in our history .

0:27So , is he right ? Has France really

0:30adapted and was the summer of 2026

0:31simply an anomaly , or are we completely

0:33out of our depth when it comes to

0:34protecting ourselves against tomorrow's

0:36disasters ? To understand all this , I

0:38invited Ilian Mund , an expert in

0:40climate resilience , to review the three

0:42major events of this summer : heat waves

0:44, droughts , and megafires . Using two

0:46maps and very specific graphs , we will

0:48look at their consequences , which are

0:49much more serious than what you have

0:51been told in the media in terms of

0:52their impact on our health , our economy

0:54, our agriculture , and especially why

0:55some French people , including you ,

0:57could be much more exposed than others .

0:59The goal is to understand what really

1:01went wrong this summer and determine

1:03whether or not France is adapted to the

1:05climate that is coming . I wish you a

1:07good village . Here we go . This graph

1:13summarizes the summer we just

1:14experienced . We experienced the heat

1:16wave of 2003 , which was historic for

1:18its time , three times , and all in a

1:20single summer . Days with peaks of 40 °

1:22C in the shade , heat waves that last

1:24longer and longer , and above all ,

1:25temperatures that do not drop at night .

1:27It's serious and yet according to some ,

1:29we don't care .

1:30As we said yesterday , everyone is hot .

1:32Well , no , there is this category of

1:34people who are more affected than

1:35everyone else . There are those who live

1:37under the roof . No one cares . So , the

1:40question I wanted to ask Elian is , do

1:41we care ? Are we really all in the same

1:44boat when it comes to heat waves or are

1:45some people going to suffer more than

1:47others ?

1:51Climate risk is not just about changes

1:54in the weather , okay ? It's not just the

1:56excess heat , the dryness , or too much

1:57water . That's what we call climate

1:59hazards . Hazards will be an indicator

2:02that we will examine . For example , heat

2:05waves , let's say the so-called heat

2:07wave , will last on average , I don't

2:09know , I'm talking nonsense , from 1 to

2:1114 days in France by 2050 , 2060 , etc.

2:14When we do that , we've only covered

2:16part of the risk component . I'll give

2:18you a little bit of information . When

2:20the media cover climate-related topics ,

2:22they always act like a disaster ,

2:23filming the disaster . And then they say

2:26, " Oh , well , it's because of climate

2:28change because the heat wave has been

2:29made more likely . " When they do that ,

2:31they've never done any adaptation or

2:33climate risk analysis because the risk

2:35is more complex and when it occurs , we

2:37send all the consequences . Risk is

2:40reflected at the intersection of

2:41hazards but also exposure . Exposure is

2:44where you live . How significant or less

2:47significant the effects of this climate

2:49hazard are . The main exposure is living

2:52in the city . Okay ? It's a form of

2:55exposure . Living under roofs is also an

2:58impact that makes it a characteristic

2:59of your habitat that makes you more

3:01exposed to the effects of climate

3:03change . During the 2003 heat wave , the

3:07mortality rate was four times higher

3:09under roofs than elsewhere . So it's

3:12absolutely disgusting to hear Barth

3:13make fun of people and say that we

3:15don't care about people who live on

3:16roofs . You have a scientific study that

3:18tells you that it quadruples your

3:20mortality . That's unbelievable . And

3:22then , there are the characteristics of

3:24vulnerability . If I take the term too

3:26hot , the characteristics of

3:27vulnerability would rather be

3:29characteristics of , let's say , good

3:30health . Okay ? It's like with Covid ,

3:34when you have comorbidities , or when

3:35you're older or when you're a young

3:37child , you're someone who's going to be

3:39more vulnerable to the effects of heat

3:41waves . That is to say , you're going to

3:44be more likely to become dehydrated or

3:46to be put in danger during this heat

3:47wave . Okay ? If we do this very quickly ,

3:50where's the exhibit ? Where is your home

3:52? What's your home like ? Is it

3:54protected ? And your vulnerability is

3:56going to be your body . And then , of

3:58course , how we respond to the risk . You

4:00have forms of response that can reduce

4:02the level of risk . We'll talk about

4:04this in the episode on adaptation , for

4:06example , thermal renovation , for

4:07example , green and blue networks . But

4:09you can have types of responses in

4:11certain forms that can increase the

4:12overall level of risk . For example , on

4:14certain points , the air conditioning

4:16that rejects heat outside , which would

4:18have been much better if An Bartes had

4:20shown , uh , these productions from other

4:22media that have been done . I really

4:24like what Vert did , and there are

4:25others who , because they took

4:27testimonies from people . Okay . So the

4:29testimony of Verre with my 10 - month-old

4:30baby , we live in hell . For a child that

4:32age , the temperature should not exceed

4:3426 ° C . At home , it can climb to 34 °

4:38C . Every night , I go down to the

4:39basement of the building , the only

4:41place where he manages to get some

4:42sleep . By next summer , I have to leave

4:44this apartment . Pauline , 36 years old ,

4:47in Alby . And this graph , which is all

4:50objective , shows a peak in excess

4:52mortality during the heatwave in July ,

4:54which is extremely marked , and you can

4:57see that in particular when we have

4:59COVID-type peaks .

5:01What does this mean ? It shows that

5:04climate change has a gendered dimension

5:06, first of all because , if we look at

5:08the statistics , climate change kills

5:10more elderly women . Climate change also

5:13increases . A study conducted in Madrid

5:16found that femicides increase by 28 %

5:19during heat waves . Climate change also

5:22increases miscarriages , and heat waves

5:23in particular , are times when there is

5:25an increase in miscarriages . These are

5:28also times that have a huge impact on

5:30mental health . You really feel it when

5:32you work in extremely hot weather . I am

5:35extremely irritable when it is hot , but

5:37I am not the only one . But these are

5:39things that are noticeable . We also

5:40experience a loss of cognitive

5:42abilities . Above 26 or 28 ° C , we

5:45already start to lose our ability to

5:47think because our bodies use a lot of

5:49energy to protect themselves from the

5:51heat . So there is a cognitive burden

5:54there . There is also a dimension that

5:56is extremely important in the urban

5:58heat effect . We can say that it is a

6:01dimension of class , to put it very

6:02quickly . If you have the opportunity to

6:05go on vacation , to move away from Paris

6:07during heat waves , to have your small

6:10second home , even if even second homes

6:12are starting to heat up a bit now , well

6:14in fact , you are not more vulnerable ,

6:16you are ... you are less vulnerable than

6:19someone who has to stay in Paris , and

6:21so on .

6:22Why ? Because we have this phenomenon

6:24called urban failover that I have

6:25already shown . Urban failover is very

6:27easy to understand . In fact , cities are

6:29very well designed since they are

6:30radiators that heat up in the summer .

6:32Why ? Because you have a layer of

6:33concrete . This concrete will capture

6:36the heat during the heat waves during

6:38the day and will gradually re-emit it

6:41in the evening . Now , the re-emission of

6:45these heat waves , of the heat that is

6:48stored in the evening , well that's what

6:50has health consequences because the

6:52heat wave during the day is not what

6:55will destroy your health the most . What

6:58will destroy your health the most is

7:00not being able to sleep anymore . Okay ?

7:02Not having your body recover from the

7:04heat waves . That's why a city is an

7:07extremely dangerous environment . Paris

7:11is one of the deadliest cities in

7:14Europe in terms of heat waves , so we

7:17had about , it's still in the accounts ,

7:206,000 excess deaths during this heat

7:22wave period in France in 2026. We had

7:25the hottest night ever recorded in

7:28France on June 23rd with 26 ° C , 21 °

7:31C , sorry , 6 ° C , and according to

7:34projections around the second half of

7:36the century , we will gradually move to

7:40around thirty tropical nights per year

7:45on average . So on average , that means

7:48we can have 30 , 40 , 50 days of tropical

7:51nights . That is to say , months in fact

7:53with heat waves like this . There is

7:56also an impact on vulnerability that is

7:58linked to the form of socialization .

8:01Heat waves kill invisible people . 88 % of

8:04the people who died in Paris during the

8:062003 heat wave were people who were

8:08traveling alone . Another topic is , for

8:11example , the issue of homelessness . And

8:13these are people who will also suffer

8:15the full force of this during heat

8:18waves , because the facilities that are

8:20supposed to house them , that are

8:22supposed to support them , traditionally

8:24go dormant in the summer . Whereas in

8:27winter , there are often solutions when

8:29it comes to relocation plans for

8:31extreme cold , etc. , when temperatures

8:33drop very , very low . It is still

8:37scandalous that we have a form of

8:38management of homelessness based on the

8:40thermometer , when we are dealing with

8:42human beings who are just outside and

8:44we should simply offer the first thing

8:46that is a human right , that is to have

8:48access to housing that allows you to

8:49rebuild the rest of your life around it

8:51. But anyway , that is the current

8:54situation . Another important thing to

8:57show is that we also need to consider

8:59the issue of suburbs because , for

9:01example , here I have put a map of the

9:03wealth that we have between different

9:04areas of the Île-de-France region .

9:07When you are red , you are in very

9:08wealthy communities and when you are

9:10poor , you are in more blue communities .

9:12We can clearly see the Saint-Denis

9:13scene . And what is quite interesting is

9:15to look right next to the map of

9:17environmental pollution . Environmental

9:20pollution includes air pollution in

9:22these areas and access to green spaces

9:24in Aubervilier . Between Aubervilier and

9:27Paris , there is a ratio of 1 to 6

9:29between access and the number of square

9:31meters of green space available across

9:34the entire area . We also have , and this

9:38is a figure that is not well known and

9:39that needs to be repeated , during the

9:41heatwave of 2003 , there was a 160 %

9:43higher mortality rate in Saint-Denis

9:45compared to other areas . Why? Because

9:48in Saint-Denis , you have overcrowded

9:50accommodation , you don't have the space

9:52. You often have what is called a hot

9:54bed , that is to say , you have to rotate

9:55to go to sleep . There aren't enough

9:57beds for everyone to go very quickly .

9:59We are also in environments that are

10:01therefore highly artificialized and we

10:03are in environments with very little

10:04access or less access to public

10:06services , particularly public health

10:08services . And so this dimension of

10:11climate change has an extremely marked

10:13class and gender dimension . And so we

10:16are obviously not all linked to the

10:17same thing , we are not all in the same

10:19boat in relation to this . As we have

10:21just seen , we are not all equal when it

10:23comes to heat waves , and it will be

10:24very important to restore a balance and

10:26find solutions for those most at risk

10:28in order to reduce the impacts . But

10:30what I also wanted to explore with

10:31Ilian is the impact of heat waves on

10:33the world of work . Who are the most

10:35affected and how serious is it for our

10:37country and our economy ? What I like to

10:43do is provide concrete facts . Here ,

10:46Oxfam has worked to identify the 23

10:48professions most exposed to high

10:51temperatures . And unsurprisingly , the

10:54two types of professions most exposed

10:56to the effects of climate change are

10:58people who work outdoors , and in

11:00particular construction workers , since

11:02these are workers , people who work — as

11:05we have seen — in the heart of the

11:07urban heat wave and who are also

11:08professions that are already extremely

11:11accident-prone . Okay ? An accident-prone

11:14job means a job where there are many

11:16deaths at work and where there are many

11:17work accidents in these jobs . However ,

11:20cognitive abilities that are reduced by

11:23heat waves cause more errors at work

11:25and therefore more danger for these

11:27people . When these people are forced to

11:30go to work , they are people who are put

11:31in danger

11:32and these are people who are not

11:34sufficiently protected by our law .

11:35Today in France , we do not have the

11:37right to withdraw in the event of

11:39extreme heat or at least not within

11:40clearly defined thresholds . And we have

11:43been very mocked at the proposals for

11:44climate leave . I agree that there

11:46should be some form of right to

11:48withdraw in these cases because this is

11:49putting people in danger . Perhaps on

11:51the construction site , they can wait or

11:53perhaps we can work with increased

11:55compensation at certain times on

11:57staggered hours . In any case , to avoid

11:59putting these people in danger , we need

12:00to ask ourselves these kinds of

12:01questions . And the second type of

12:03profession that is most affected by

12:05these effects is that of farmers .

12:07Because in addition to working with

12:10living things , these living things are

12:12greatly impacted and therefore they

12:15suffer the economic impacts of these

12:17things , of the decrease in yields . But

12:20they are also put in danger when you

12:22are outdoors on plots without shade and

12:24so on , and well , you have a huge impact

12:26on your health and therefore you put

12:28yourself in danger too . In fact , we can

12:32find in this classification the class

12:33dimension of the effects of climate

12:35change . When you work in an office and

12:38your office is air-conditioned , well ,

12:40you are not in the same boat as the

12:42person who is going to do the

12:44construction work or the work , or

12:45rather as the agricultural workers or

12:47the construction workers . And of course

12:51, there's the issue of public services .

12:53Regarding public services , we talked a

12:55lot about schools during those times .

13:01During those phases , since schools have

13:03very little air conditioning and in the

13:05playgrounds , you have children who are

13:08very exposed to these heat waves . And

13:11then there's the healthcare staff .

13:14Healthcare staff , given that they are

13:16already understaffed , I would like to

13:18point out that we have lost an elite

13:20group of public hospitals since the

13:21early 2000s , which means that

13:23healthcare staff have to make do with

13:25fewer and fewer resources and who are

13:26now , just because of the flu , almost on

13:28a standstill .

13:30What is a standstill plan ?

13:32A standstill plan is an emergency plan .

13:33They will have to work harder . It's

13:35like the plan that was set up during

13:37the Covid era and so on . These white

13:39plans have now been triggered with each

13:41flu epidemic . Why? Because you also

13:44have an aging French population and so

13:46you have to perform more procedures as

13:48hospital staff than before . On the

13:51other hand , you have fewer resources .

13:52So , you have a kind of scissor effect

13:54that is very marked . And the white plan

13:57now even starts in the summer . That is

13:59to say , before , they had a white plan

14:01that could last from October to March /

14:05February because of flu epidemics and

14:06then during Covid , it was like that all

14:08the way through the winter periods . And

14:11now , they are starting to have white

14:13plans that date from May to July / August

14:15because of these heat waves and the

14:17fact that we have a population that is

14:19becoming increasingly vulnerable

14:21because it is getting older and also

14:22because the health of the French is

14:24deteriorating in terms of , for example ,

14:26diseases such as obesity , etc. ,

14:28exposure to sugar , exposure to

14:29pesticides and so on . So all of this is

14:32linked . And I really like this little

14:35illustration with a granny telling the

14:37caregiver that they need to stay

14:39hydrated because they need to be

14:41careful of heatstroke . We are dealing

14:45with infrastructures that are on the

14:47back foot and are increasingly tested

14:48by all this . One thing that has been

14:51talked about less this summer is that

14:52the heat waves have not only affected

14:54humans . They have also profoundly dried

14:56out our soils and waterways . And you

14:58might think that the cause is quite

14:59simple . It just hasn't rained enough .

15:01But in reality , it's much more

15:02complicated than that because the soil

15:04can no longer absorb water properly .

15:06The water tables can no longer fill up

15:07and our own habits can make the problem

15:09even worse . So what really causes a

15:11drought and why is it so difficult to

15:14stop it ?

15:19A drought has three dimensions . There

15:20is not just a climatic dimension . There

15:22is of course the climatic or

15:23meteorological dimension .

15:25Meteorologically , it's a precipitation

15:26deficit . We had -55 % precipitation in

15:29June and July . So we already have less

15:32precipitation across the entire country

15:33. But in fact , it's not just that

15:35because when it rains for a short time

15:37on the ground , it's like your sponge

15:39that's at the bottom of your kitchen .

15:41You pick it up , it's very dry , it needs

15:43a lot of water so that it can reabsorb

15:45water properly . So when you have

15:48significant dry spells , your soil

15:50becomes very crunchy . In any case , you

15:53have a crust of battance . That's what

15:56we call a crust of battance , well ,

15:57something that will prevent the other

15:59from infiltrating deeply . This is the

16:01second type of drought , which is called

16:03agronomic drought . Hm

16:04hm . Agronomic or agricultural drought

16:07is a drought of the soil . But be

16:09careful , soil drought is not just

16:11climatic . There are also land uses that

16:15can dry out the water . For example , if

16:17you have a crop that needs lots of

16:19water in summer , you will find your

16:22soil is in a situation where it demands

16:24so much more . It's going to be like a

16:30needle in your sponge that's going to

16:32take more water out of it . And , uh ,

16:34obviously , when your soil is very dry

16:35and water doesn't seep through it

16:37anymore , well , you're finding it harder

16:38to fill your aquifers . And if you're

16:42finding it harder to fill your aquifers

16:43, which are the invisible part of the

16:45watercourse , you're going to have

16:47extremely significant reductions in

16:49flow across all of France's

16:50watercourses . Okay ? And so , you can

16:54have an extremely wet winter with a lot

16:56of precipitation , but in fact , if your

16:58soil is not able to absorb it and

17:00especially if your water basin takes it

17:02all , if your precipitation is not

17:03evenly distributed and falls all at

17:05once , well you really won't fill your

17:07water tables or in any case during the

17:09dry spell , it will empty very , very

17:10quickly . And so what we can still show

17:14is the evolution in a France with 4 °

17:16C . We have the France of too dry , okay ,

17:19with quite a few interesting elements

17:20on this map . We see the evolution here

17:24of the meteorological season , the

17:26cumulative precipitation in summer at

17:28+4 in a France with +4 degrees . We see

17:31an entire southwestern and western part

17:33that is very dry with much less

17:35precipitation , especially all of French

17:37Catalonia and so on , the Occitanie

17:39region , Brittany . It will rain several

17:42times a day in Brittany , unfortunately .

17:45And we also have these extremely marked

17:48uncertainty bars that actually show

17:50problems between the laboratories that

17:53do climate modeling . That is to say ,

17:55when you have these uncertainty bars ,

17:57there are laboratories that tell you : "

17:59Oh well , it will get wetter in summer

18:00in a certain place , like in the north ,

18:02for example , " not Calais , and

18:03laboratories that say : " No , it will dry

18:05out . " And Metéofrance indicates when

18:07it summarizes all the existing climate

18:09models , these are dotted lines to

18:10indicate that we are on an average

18:12between people who do not have the same

18:14sign of evolution . And it's very

18:16annoying , because in real life , there's

18:18one model that's more right than the

18:20others . And so , that means we have

18:23difficulty knowing : should we adapt to

18:24too much dryness or too much water at

18:25that time ? So there's a lot of

18:27uncertainty , and these uncertainties

18:29increase a bit like the tipping points

18:30with the level of warming . And what's

18:33interesting to look at is this map here

18:35. This is the map of too much water .

18:39Because we're in summer now , so I won't

18:40go into that again , but in the

18:42fall-winter season , we're also going to

18:43suffer because we're going to have the

18:44fall-winter season of climate change .

18:47All the excess water that evaporated

18:49during this period will suddenly fall

18:51back in the form of extreme

18:52precipitation , particularly in the

18:54north and northeast , according to

18:56climate projections that show the

18:57evolution of winter precipitation in

18:59France at +4 degrees . Okay ? Something

19:03extremely important , the Mediterranean

19:05rim . On the Mediterranean rim , we still

19:07have these signs of uncertainty that

19:09show a lot of difficulties in

19:11anticipating , in particular all the

19:12Svennol events and so on and concerns

19:14over Brittany . If I look at these two

19:17maps , we can almost see a quite

19:19striking parallelism . We can draw a

19:22diagonal between a south-southwest

19:24diagonal that dries up on one side and

19:26an excess of water that falls back on

19:28the north-northeast part . And I would

19:32like to point out something that we

19:34have not shown enough during this heat

19:36wave in the summer of 2026. Heat waves

19:38are not just in the air , they are also

19:40marine . Here , you have the wave levels ,

19:46the difference in intensity of marine

19:48heat waves all around the Mediterranean

19:51. The Mediterranean is almost 4 ° C

19:54warmer than average on average . Now ,

19:57the Mediterranean is a lake . You know ,

19:59there is the D3 of Gibraltar , which is

20:01only 14 km apart from the Atlantic

20:02Ocean . And so , in fact , here , we have a

20:05lake that heats up very , very , very

20:06quickly and this has very significant

20:08consequences , because all the water

20:09that has evaporated there will fall

20:11back down at some point and this is

20:12what is known as , in particular , the

20:14Sevenol episodes , and so on , that we

20:15know about . And these are also marine

20:19fires , okay ? These are marine heat

20:21waves . In particular , they kill all the

20:24Posedidonia seagrass beds , which are in

20:26fact our forests in the Mediterranean

20:28that capture and sequester carbon . And

20:30so this has a very strong impact on

20:32biodiversity , on fishing , and so on .

20:35And so we see that too dry and too much

20:36water are in fact two phases of the

20:38same coin . It is the syndrome of a

20:41morlente , ecosystems that are capable

20:44of sequestering water and our carbon as

20:47such . And we can also see the

20:49projections . Uh , I think it is

20:51important , it is the theme of the video

20:52. So we need to show all the

20:54projections because then people may be

20:56more open to understanding what is

20:57going to happen compared to what we

20:58have today . But here is the evolution

21:02of river flow in France by 2050. You

21:04see in particular extremely significant

21:06decreases in the south and southwest .

21:09Okay ? Spain and French Catalonia are

21:13territories that are already on the way

21:15to desertification . And I would like to

21:19emphasize the decreases that we are

21:20seeing , particularly on the Rô side ,

21:22which are perhaps a little less

21:24significant , but which are at least as

21:26significant , because the Rône plays an

21:28absolutely fundamental role in French

21:30agriculture , in French hydroelectric

21:32production , in French nuclear

21:33production , in the transport of goods

21:35by sea , and so on , and so on , and also

21:37in cooling data centers . The Rône is

21:40perhaps one of the most important

21:42rivers in France and it too will be

21:44impacted and there are a lot of

21:45activities planned , in particular the

21:47installation of all the new nuclear

21:49power plants in this part of the Rône .

21:52And so you also have this aspect that

21:54is very much neglected , which is the

21:56shrinkage and swelling of clay . The

21:59shrinkage and swelling of clay affects

22:01more than 12 million homes in France .

22:03That's 40 % of the housing stock . And

22:05what is it ? Simply because we have clay

22:10soil , which fluctuates a lot with the

22:12amount of water it has . So when clay

22:16soil has a lot of water in it , it

22:18swells , but when it's dry , it shrinks

22:20very much . It's like an accordion , if

22:23you want shrinkage , swelling , energy .

22:25So when it's irrigated , I pull the

22:26accordion open , and when it's very dry ,

22:28I close it . Except when we have extreme

22:30droughts , it's not me who closes the

22:31accordion anymore , it's Hulk . So if you

22:34close it too tightly , it creates lots

22:36of cracks in houses , etc. ,

22:38and that has an extremely significant

22:40impact on the insurability of these

22:42properties . 12 million houses are

22:45affected . And today when I look at the

22:49insurance plans and costs , well , it's

22:51quite significant , it's quite

22:53interesting because the first item of

22:55projected insurance costs each year is

22:57no longer flooding . It's become this

23:00shrinkage and swelling of clay already .

23:02Okay . And it's always something that

23:05has a risk that spreads after the event

23:07.

23:08Okay . That's how many

23:13hectares went up in smoke this summer .

23:14An exceptional figure marked in

23:16particular by impressive megafires in

23:18the Landes forest . But how do we

23:19explain such a scale ? Is it simply a

23:21question of resources ? Is it climate

23:23change that is making these fires

23:24uncontrollable ? Or is part of the

23:26problem hidden directly in the way we

23:28have managed our forests ? So indeed , we

23:31talked a lot , in this media segment ,

23:32about the resources on the part of

23:34firefighters , just as we talked a lot ,

23:35during the Covid era , about the

23:37resources for hospital staff . Because

23:38this is a real trajectory that has been

23:41followed , for 10 years or more in this

23:43country , which is a trajectory of

23:45reducing all public services , which

23:47means that we invest more in our health

23:49, or not in terms of needs . We also

23:52invest more in our civil security in

23:53terms of needs because the needs for

23:55civil security are increasing . Once

23:57again , older people are a major factor

23:59in climate change , etc. , and we lack

24:01infrastructure . In France , we have 12

24:04Canadaires that are about 30 years old ,

24:06and whose production was stopped in

24:082015. We have 11 operational ones , and

24:10we had the Gabriel Atel government

24:12cancel twice , effectively canceling

24:14resources that no longer meet needs . We

24:17could not have anticipated these needs .

24:20We know very well that climate change

24:21is having an impact , particularly on

24:23the 330s . Are you familiar with the

24:26330s ? to develop .

24:28The 330 are the three conditions that

24:30make forest fires more likely to start .

24:34When you have 30 ° C , 30 % humidity ,

24:36less than 30 % humidity in the air , sorry

24:39, and 30 km / h in front of you , you have

24:42conditions that are very favorable for

24:45the development of fires . A figure that

24:48no one talked about that is very

24:49important , it is perhaps the most

24:51important for fires . 1 % of fires cause

24:5450 % of the damage . That is to say , the

24:57media debate , and we will perhaps come

24:59back to the adaptation part on this , is

25:00focused on firefighters and so on . But

25:03in fact the issue is not the issue of

25:04firefighters because in fact you will

25:06have forest fires , fire outbreaks , all

25:07the time . On the other hand , these fire

25:11outbreaks , well unfortunately , they

25:13ignite in favorable environments . Okay .

25:18And that can create what are called

25:20megafires , which are self-sustaining

25:22fires , particularly with firebrands

25:24that can be projected further and

25:26therefore start fires everywhere and

25:29make it impossible for firefighters to

25:31put them out . So now we can see very

25:36clearly the evolution of climate

25:40projections on forest fires . In a

25:44France with more than 200 degrees

25:45Celsius , we have fires that ... We have

25:47... it will be interesting to comment on

25:49this map , because we can see that

25:51forest fires , according to Météo

25:52France and the RIA platform , at 2

25:54degrees Celsius , are still more

25:55concentrated , at least in terms of the

25:57increase in the number of days with an

25:59average fire index , which is an

26:00indicator that aggregates drought

26:02conditions , temperature conditions and

26:04wind conditions . We can see that the

26:08risk is increasing significantly in the

26:11southeast of the country , and we can

26:13gradually see a map that is becoming

26:16redder everywhere , with fires breaking

26:19out across the entire territory ,

26:21especially the very high risk in our

26:24southeast and the entire western part

26:26of the country . The thing is ,

26:30they are not taking into account the

26:31moors and the mega-fires that we had .

26:33Yes . Well , what is missing from this

26:35analysis is the structure of the moors .

26:38The moors are a bit like the

26:39Poitoucharande region . It is a region

26:41that was drained under Napoleon I in

26:43particular . In 1857 , Napoleon I issued

26:51a decree with the aim of transforming

26:53the Landes territory , which was a

26:55wetland and agro-pastoral area . It was

26:59the law on the sanitation and

27:01cultivation of the moors . The idea was

27:04to drain all the moors . In fact , we

27:06have really dried out this forest . We

27:08have used matchsticks that are very ,

27:11very conducive to starting fires in

27:14order to overexploit this forest and to

27:17get the maximum yield from it in terms

27:20of bread production . And then , we have

27:24a very strong wood industry in France ,

27:27particularly for paper , but we also

27:29have a very strong desire to increase

27:31wood production , particularly to

27:33supplement our household expenses . I

27:36will show you this later . But today ,

27:39our forests are doing worse and worse .

27:43In particular , we have seen a doubling

27:46of the volume of dead wood in France

27:49and a very significant increase in the

27:52mortality of standing trees . In

27:55particular , our carbon sinks have

27:57halved their capacity to sequester

27:59carbon in 10 years . In other words , our

28:01trees are increasingly sick . If they

28:03are increasingly sick , you have more

28:04and more dead wood . This dead wood acts

28:06as fuel , which has extremely

28:07significant impacts on the ignition of

28:09forest fires . So in fact , we really

28:12transformed this Landes forest into a

28:14matchstick forest and we had a big fire

28:16in the 50s and so on . And the way you

28:19responded to it , you responded to it ,

28:20it was our doctrine of extinguishing

28:22the fire . It's called the doctrine of

28:24attacking the nascent fire . The

28:26doctrine of attacking the nascent fire

28:28is to be hyper-reactive , in particular

28:30to make accesses and so on to

28:32extinguish the fire as quickly as

28:34possible when it starts . And if with

28:37this doctrine of nascent fire , we have

28:39gradually succeeded in concretely

28:41limiting the impact that we had on it .

28:44But now , we are in climatic conditions

28:46that are so different that this

28:48doctrine of nascent fire is

28:49inapplicable to us to extinguish all

28:51the small bits of fire that are

28:52starting now and so on . And today , we

28:56also have this trajectory that dates

28:59from the national back carbon strategy

29:012 , the SNBC2 , where you can see in

29:04particular an increase in brown carbon

29:07stocks in wood products . In fact , the

29:11SNBC2 planned to triple the stock , a

29:14tripling of wood production to

29:16decarbonize energy , construction , in

29:19particular , because we need wood for

29:21everything . But in fact , if you

29:24increase your wood production , it means

29:26that you have to be able to produce

29:28more wood , more wood , more wood . And

29:30that's exactly like agriculture . It

29:33means you'll need a homogeneous wood

29:35type , like maritime pines , for which

29:36you'll have to accelerate the harvest .

29:39If you speed up the harvest , you weaken

29:41everything else . And that can hold up

29:43in a stable climate that you control .

29:45But as soon as the climate starts to

29:46change , you're in a situation where you

29:48no longer control a thing . So to

29:54summarize , this summer , we saw that the

29:56heat could endanger our health and our

29:57work , that the drought weakened our

29:59agriculture and our infrastructure , and

30:01that our forests are becoming

30:02increasingly vulnerable to fires . And

30:04all of this is likely to become more

30:06and more frequent . So now that we know

30:08what awaits us , are we really ready to

30:10change things or are we just paralyzed

30:11in the face of what is coming ? The

30:14image we have is that today , we are a

30:15little bit — and this is the case for

30:17what many people feel — we are a little

30:19bit like a rabbit in front of the

30:20headlights of the car that is heading

30:22towards us , and it has already almost

30:24hit the car , or at least the stones

30:25that it has thrown at us . And the

30:29problem is that when we have a very

30:30high level of fear , we become paralyzed

30:32. Now , the huge concern that I have

30:36always had , both in the media coverage

30:38and in the way environmental issues

30:40have always been addressed , is that

30:41these issues have always been addressed

30:43from the perspective of consumption .

30:46How can I reduce my consumption to be

30:48more responsible ? And in fact , we are

30:51generally incapable , in general , of

30:53thinking of solutions that are more at

30:56the level of production , planning or

30:59the collective and working together .

31:02Okay ? We often talk about individual

31:04action , collective action and so on . I

31:07think that this vision is completely

31:09outdated today and that the only way to

31:11structurally change something like this

31:14is precisely to act collectively and

31:16stop wasting crises . Individual guilt

31:20over this or that issue or always

31:22asking the question through the lens of

31:23, oh well , the plane , oh well , the

31:25consumption of this or that thing ,

31:26these are important issues . But in fact

31:29, the issue of climate is not just a

31:30matter of responsibility ; it is above

31:32all a matter of collective security .

31:34What infrastructures do we need to

31:35provide ourselves with ? What

31:37infrastructures are there today and can

31:39be developed so that they become the

31:41new norm tomorrow ? We will talk about

31:43this in particular , but for example , if

31:45we want to profoundly transform our

31:46agriculture , we need a form of

31:48collective structure for new

31:49organizations in the agricultural world

31:51that can stand up . We can think , for

31:54example , of a form of social security

31:55for food that would create a protected

31:57market for virtuous producers , and that

31:59we could gradually extend this

32:01protected market with a vital food

32:02security card , for example , to

32:04encompass all types of virtuous

32:05production and that we would make the

32:07entire agricultural model branch out

32:09like that . And this social security for

32:13food is already in the making in many

32:15groups . And we could , and in fact what

32:17we are going to try to do and what we

32:19need to do is to find out for each

32:21specific problem that arises — too hot ,

32:23too dry , fire , and so on — what

32:24infrastructures already exist ? What are

32:26ours already there ? Who are the groups

32:29that are already organizing the world

32:30of tomorrow ? And how do we take their

32:32knowledge , use their knowledge , and

32:34immediately generalize everything ? We

32:37need to stop wasting these crises and

32:39each time placing them on a

32:40psychological level . It is difficult ,

32:44and we need to find opportunities each

32:46time to change the system in relation

32:48to this and to put forward concrete

32:50adaptation solutions that are viable in

32:52a world that has become fluctuating and

32:55in a world of climate change . I love

32:59this , this little image here . If you

33:04are all alone , the fish will definitely

33:05eat you . On the other hand , if you are

33:08a lot of well-organized ,

33:09well-disciplined fish focused on a goal

33:11, who have experienced things , who

33:13already have a plan B at the time of

33:15the disaster , well , we will be able to

33:17connect them and transform many things .

33:20And Émile Zola said the future , when

33:22it is hopeless , the present takes on a

33:23vile bitterness . We are exactly in that

33:26situation . Now , we have to open up the

33:27gaps of hope . We can't just let people

33:29contemplate the disaster . We have to

33:32open up the possibilities for

33:33transformation and the possibilities

33:34for emancipation because we have no

33:36choice but to move in front of the car

33:37that is heading our way . I hope you

33:39enjoyed this episode with Kan and that

33:41you better understood what happened

33:43this summer . With the temperatures

33:44dropping and the arrival of autumn , it

33:46was important for us to take stock so

33:47as not to forget what happened and so

33:49that it can serve as lessons for the

33:50future . We're also going to release an

33:52episode dedicated to adaptation to see

33:54what urgently needs to be put in place .

33:56But in the meantime , you can check out

33:57Ilian's book to explore this topic

33:59further . You'll find all the links in

34:00the description . For our part , with

34:02Limit , we need your support more than

34:03ever to continue to remain an

34:05independent media outlet , to highlight

34:06solutions for the world of tomorrow and

34:08, above all , to influence the 2027

34:09presidential elections . We know that

34:11environmental issues will be central to

34:13this campaign . So , we're counting on

34:15your support so that we can give it our

34:17all and ensure that the right messages

34:18are seen and heard . That was Johan for

34:20Limite garder le spray . What is your

34:30definition of reality ?