Full transcript
0:00If you spend any much time on social
0:01media,
0:01>> [laughter]
0:02>> and God help you if you do, you might
0:04have seen a certain meme flying around.
0:06One that's often used when discussing
0:08China's foreign policy, especially in
0:09relation to the United States. Shows
0:12Chinese President Xi Jinping [music]
0:13edited to look not like Winnie the Pooh,
0:15but like Asian Gigachad with three
0:18simple words above him. Do nothing, win.
0:22Now, we don't usually get our
0:24geopolitical analysis from memes, but
0:26it's difficult to deny that this one has
0:27been particularly effective. Compared to
0:30the US, which for those keeping score at
0:32home is bogged down in Iran, has just
0:33started a trade war with Canada, has
0:35alienated its allies in Europe and South
0:37Korea, and has unsuccessfully been
0:39trying to annex Greenland, well, it's
0:42hard to deny that China really does look
0:43[music] like doing nothing is meaning
0:46it's still somehow winning. Yet, that
0:49doing nothing formulation is being too
0:51harsh on Beijing. Rather than just
0:52kicking back and chilling, Giga Xi has
0:55been working tirelessly to win friends
0:56and influence people. A campaign [music]
0:58that has been turbocharged in recent
1:00years by the re-election of Donald
1:01Trump. And while very few would claim
1:03that Trump set out in his second term to
1:05actually help China win, it's getting
1:07increasingly hard to argue that an
1:09increase in Chinese influence hasn't
1:11been a side effect.
1:13Winning hearts and minds.
1:16In June 2021, China's state-run news
1:18agency Xinhua reported that President Xi
1:21had told senior officials of the Chinese
1:22Communist Party or CCP that it was
1:25important to present an image of a
1:26credible, lovable, and respectable
1:29China. At the time, China's global image
1:31had taken a hit because of a whole host
1:33of issues, both domestic and on the
1:35world stage. Internally, China's
1:37treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority
1:38in Xinjiang has drawn global
1:40condemnation and even accusations that
1:42Beijing was committing a genocide. In
1:44Hong Kong, two people had died, 2,600
1:47had been injured, and over 10,000
1:48arrested following widespread protests
1:50against [music] new laws that had
1:51effectively stripped away the
1:53territory's autonomy. And we can't fail
1:55to mention the global pandemic, which
1:56was both traced back to Wuhan and also
1:59saw the Chinese government implement a
2:01lockdown so severe it verged on
2:03monomaniacal. For a while, China's
2:05answer to all of this was to get louder
2:07in an attempt to drown out the
2:08criticism. Chinese diplomats adopted an
2:10extremely aggressive and nationalistic
2:12tone in their public statements, which a
2:14lot of observers viewed as decidedly
2:16undiplomatic. This approach to foreign
2:18policy earned itself the nickname Wolf
2:20Warrior Diplomacy after an aggressively
2:23mid movie of the same name that chose a
2:25Chinese special forces soldier fighting
2:27off a bunch of international
2:28mercenaries. Just give you an idea of
2:30how aggressive Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
2:32was, in 2019, China's ambassador to
2:34Sweden, Gui Congyou, said, quoting him
2:37here, "We treat our friends with fine
2:39wine, but for our enemies, we have
2:42shotguns." It's not the kind of
2:44statement that usually makes those on
2:46the fence go,
2:48"These guys. These are the guys that I
2:50want to do a trade deal with." And it
2:52wasn't just mean words, though. [music]
2:53When Australia called for an
2:55international inquiry into China's
2:56handling of the pandemic, Beijing hit
2:58back with tariffs and restrictions on a
3:00host of Australian exports, including
3:02barley, beef, and coal. When the
3:04European Union sanctioned Chinese
3:05officials over Xinjiang, Beijing
3:08sanctioned European lawmakers right
3:10back, including a bizarre spat in which
3:12China specifically targeted the tiny
3:14nation of Lithuania. Closer to home,
3:16China wasn't showing much restraint,
3:17either. In 2020, Indian and Chinese
3:19forces clashed in the Galwan Valley
3:21along their shared border. Scores of
3:23troops from both sides killed or injured
3:26in a conflict where no shots were fired.
3:28This confrontation happened at a time
3:29when China was becoming more aggressive
3:31in other areas of the Indo-Pacific, such
3:33as the South China Sea, and was spending
3:35millions of dollars to modernize its
3:37military. In the global South,
3:38meanwhile, China was facing criticism
3:40that its flagship Belt and Road
3:41Initiative, a global development program
3:43meant to connect Asia, Europe, Africa,
3:45and Latin America through a network of
3:47ports, railways, highways, and energy
3:49projects was a debt trap that would
3:51leave the countries involved [music]
3:52worse off in the long run. We're saying
3:54all of this to show just how bad public
3:56perception of China was during this
3:58period and how little Beijing seemed to
4:00care. In fact, in 2020, the Pew Research
4:02Center found that unfavorable views of
4:04China had hit historic highs in many
4:06countries, including Canada, the UK, and
4:08Australia, where 73, 74, and 81% of the
4:13populations, respectively, had negative
4:15views [music] of the country. It was
4:16around this time that Beijing seems to
4:18have realized that something needed to
4:20change. A lot of the loudest wolf
4:21warriors [music] began to be quietly
4:23reassigned to other areas where their
4:25provocative statements could do less
4:26damage, and China started to act
4:28slightly more normal in the field of
4:30diplomacy. This return to more
4:32traditional diplomacy led to a major win
4:34in the Middle East. In March 2023,
4:36Beijing brokered a deal restoring
4:38diplomatic relations between Saudi
4:40Arabia and Iran, which shocked the
4:42entire world because of the years of
4:44animosity, suspected attacks, and
4:45espionage between the two Middle Eastern
4:47nations. Obviously, that relationship
4:50has once again taken what, with glorious
4:53British understatements, I'm going to
4:54call a bit of a hit. But at the time, it
4:57was seen as a huge deal.
4:59>> [music]
4:59>> This was Beijing's first foray into
5:01Middle Eastern mediation, an area that
5:03had traditionally been dominated [music]
5:04by the US, and it had ended with China
5:07getting an agreement most would have
5:09thought impossible. [music]
5:10Away from diplomacy, China opened itself
5:12up a lot more to people from other parts
5:14of the world. In 2023, Beijing announced
5:16that it was offering visa-free travel to
5:18tourists holding passports from France,
5:20Germany, [music] Italy, the Netherlands,
5:22Spain, and Malaysia. Beijing would
5:24eventually expand the number of
5:25countries with visa-free access to 50.
5:28The idea behind all of this was simple.
5:29If more ordinary people had a chance to
5:31experience China for themselves without
5:33the media or a politician getting in the
5:35way, then their opinions of China would
5:37change for the better, and they'd tell
5:39all of their friends and family. And
5:41that has been extremely successful. Data
5:44from the World Travel and Tourism
5:45Council [music] showed that more than 68
5:47million international visitors entered
5:49China in 2025, a 15 and a half percent
5:52increase from the previous year, and
5:54nearly three times the global growth
5:56rate of 5.4%. And while we obviously
5:59don't know how many came back raving
6:01about the nation's awesomeness, the
6:03growing online fetish for all things
6:04Chinese would suggest at least some of
6:07them did. Do you remember during the
6:08World Cup how Americans swelled with
6:09patriotism at the sight [music] of
6:11European TikTokers getting excited by
6:13portion sizes at Arby's?
6:15>> [music]
6:15>> Well, China has been experiencing its
6:17own equivalent for several years now.
6:19Back in the diplomatic arena, even the
6:21Belt and Road got a makeover. In October
6:242023, Xi announced that China would
6:26promote both signature projects as well
6:28as small and beautiful livelihood
6:29programs. The idea of small and
6:31beautiful programs emerged in 2019 as a
6:34way to better connect with the locals of
6:35a particular nation and to counter the
6:37narrative that Chinese development
6:39programs were debt traps meant to strip
6:41a country of vital assets. These
6:43projects included refurbishing the
6:45maternity wards in Zimbabwe after a
6:46cyclone, a Chinese garden in Jamaica to
6:48foster Chinese-Jamaican goodwill, and a
6:50mini hydropower plant in the Democratic
6:52Republic of the Congo. While not all of
6:54this was successful, enough was that by
6:57July 2025, the Pew Research Center found
7:00that global attitudes towards China were
7:01becoming more positive. In Canada, the
7:03number of people with an unfavorable
7:05view of China has dropped to 63% while
7:07in the UK, it's dropped to as low as 56.
7:10Admittedly, Australia was still 76%
7:13negative, but a change of 10 percentage
7:15points in once stalwart American allies
7:18like Canada [music] and 18 in the UK is
7:21nothing to be sniffed at. But maybe you
7:23noticed how we chose to frame that, as a
7:25change in once stalwart [music] American
7:28allies. Because the truth is that while
7:30China may be trying to soften its image,
7:32that alone is unlikely to have produced
7:34such a swing. No, something else
7:36happened around this time that acted as
7:38an accelerant, an event that conspired
7:40to make America look angrier, more
7:42dangerous,
7:43>> [music]
7:43>> and less trustworthy at the exact same
7:45time the Chinese were investing in
7:47making themselves look cute and cuddly.
7:49And maybe you'd care to guess what event
7:52we're thinking of here.
7:54American gifts.
7:56Well, yeah, it's right there in the
7:57title, isn't it? Since Donald Trump was
7:59reelected in November 2024, he has
8:01pursued a foreign policy that can
8:03charitably be called aggressive,
8:05especially towards America's once
8:07closest allies. Let's start with
8:09America's oldest ally of all, Canada.
8:11For decades, Canada was basically Uncle
8:13Sam's best bud, and America was a good
8:15neighbor to be around. They did hundreds
8:17of billions of dollars in trade each
8:18year, tens of millions of people crossed
8:20the shared border on trips and holidays,
8:22and Ottawa supplied the US with a steady
8:24stream of cultural icons from Keanu
8:26Reeves to Joni Mitchell via Captain Kirk
8:29and the director of the top-grossing
8:31movie of all time. On a more serious
8:33note, Canada was such a good neighbor
8:35that it sent more than 40,000 troops to
8:37support Washington during the war in
8:39Afghanistan following 9/11. And you'll
8:41notice that we're talking about this
8:42relationship in the past tense. That's
8:45because Trump has spent his second term
8:46in office antagonizing Ottawa. He kept
8:49floating the idea of Canada becoming the
8:5151st state and took to calling Prime
8:53Minister Mark Carney governor. And then
8:56there was the trade deal. On Friday the
8:5821st of August, Ottawa walked away from
9:00the negotiating table after Washington
9:02tacked on last-minute demands including
9:04a clause that would have limited
9:06Canada's ability to strike trade deals
9:07with anyone else. The relationship
9:09between the two states hasn't just
9:11deteriorated at the highest levels of
9:12government, even among civilians the
9:14attitude towards the US has changed. A
9:16recent poll by the nonprofit Angus Reid
9:18Institute published on the 10th of
9:20August found that 48% of Canadians
9:22viewed Americans unfavorably, not viewed
9:25Trump unfavorably or viewed the
9:27Republican Party unfavorably, but
9:29Americans. This marks one of the lowest
9:32levels of public trust in bilateral
9:33relations in decades. Conversely,
9:36according to a poll from the same
9:37organization, Canada's opinion of China
9:39has improved. The poll published in
9:41October last year found [music] that 27%
9:44of Canadians had a favorable view of
9:45China, up from 16% earlier this year,
9:48and nearly three times the all-time low
9:50recorded in 2021 of 10%. Now, let's move
9:53on to Greenland.
9:54>> [music]
9:54>> In December 2024, even before he had
9:57been sworn into office for a second
9:58term, President Trump wrote on social
10:00media that it was important for America
10:02to own Greenland for national security.
10:05Rather than a joke or a bit of Trumpian
10:07trolling, this escalated into a
10:09full-blown diplomatic crisis earlier
10:11this year when in the wake of US
10:12capturing Maduro, there seemed a genuine
10:14chance the administration would try to
10:16seize the Danish-administered island by
10:18force. At the height of the crisis,
10:20Danish troops were preparing to blow up
10:22air strips to deny US forces a landing
10:24place. It's hard to overstate just how
10:26shocking this entire episode was to
10:28Europe. Denmark has long been among the
10:30most pro-US nations on the planet, has
10:32sent its sons to die in America's
10:34misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq,
10:36and the reward
10:38was being threatened. Coming on top of
10:39heavy tariffs levied against Europe in
10:412025 and the coordinated humiliation of
10:44President Zelensky by JD Vance and Trump
10:46in the Oval Office, the Greenland crisis
10:49was broadly seen as a catalyst for
10:50public anger to come boiling up. Polling
10:52today shows that more people in Europe's
10:54biggest nations trust China than they do
10:56the US under Trump. Away from Europe,
10:59Trump's domestic policies have also
11:00affected America's relationship with its
11:02Asian allies. In September 2025,
11:04immigration agents raided I Hyundai
11:06battery plants in Georgia and detained
11:08hundreds of South Korean workers, an
11:10episode that triggered genuine outrage
11:12in Seoul. South Korea has also been a
11:14victim of America's international
11:15policies. The war in Iran significantly
11:17dented America's interceptor stockpiles,
11:19forcing Washington to pull vital
11:21interceptors, including the Terminal
11:22High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
11:25system, [music] from Seoul. Trump
11:26ordered the Pentagon to cut short an
11:28annual joint defense exercise with Seoul
11:30because of his very good relationship
11:32with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un
11:34and because Seoul refused to join the
11:36war in Iran. With friends like these,
11:39right? Separately, tariffs on India
11:42pushed New Delhi visibly closer to both
11:44Moscow and Beijing, undoing years of
11:46American work to bring India closer to
11:48the West. And this past May at the
11:50Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore,
11:51Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the
11:53region's officials that the era of
11:55America subsidizing wealthy allies
11:57defense was over, pushing them toward a
11:59new target of 3.5% of GDP. For countries
12:02like Singapore and South Korea, which
12:04spent 2.8% and 2.6% of their GDP on
12:07defense, this target is achievable, even
12:10if it will require sacrifices. For
12:12countries like Japan and the
12:13Philippines, which spent 1.4% and 1.3%
12:15of their respective GDPs on defense,
12:17more than [music] doubling that figure
12:19will mean brutal domestic trade-offs.
12:22Nonetheless, most observers believe that
12:24Asian nations will significantly ramp up
12:25their defense spending both to protect
12:27themselves against China and to appease
12:29Washington. Still, despite seeing China
12:32as a threat, most Southeast Asian
12:33countries now prefer Beijing to the
12:35United States as a trade partner,
12:37according to the 2026 State of Southeast
12:40Asia Survey. That same report found that
12:43US leadership under President Donald
12:44Trump had become the region's biggest
12:46geopolitical concern rather than
12:48anything China is doing. In a separate
12:50poll by Ipsos from April this year, 55%
12:52of respondents across Asia believed that
12:54China will have a positive effect on the
12:56world over the next decade, while only
12:5740% said [music] that the US would have
12:59a positive impact. And then there's
13:01Africa. Within his first few months back
13:03in the Oval Office, President Trump had
13:05signed an executive order freezing
13:06nearly all foreign aid pending a 90-day
13:09review. That review did not spare much.
13:12In March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio
13:13announced that 83% of USAID contracts,
13:16around 5,200 of them, were being
13:18canceled outright because they did not
13:19serve America's best interests. By July,
13:22the agency itself was gone, folded into
13:24the State Department after six decades
13:26of operation. Those cuts were brutal for
13:29parts of [music] Africa. Oxfam, a global
13:31organization that fights inequality to
13:33end poverty and injustice, reported that
13:3523 million children would lose access to
13:38education and 95 million people would
13:40lose access to basic health care, which
13:43would lead to 3 million preventable
13:46deaths each year. And this is just part
13:49of Trump's retreat on the continent. In
13:51July, Semafor reported that the US had
13:53left 41 out of the continent's 54
13:56countries without a Senate-confirmed
13:57ambassador, which was limiting America's
13:59ability to conduct diplomacy on the
14:01continent and Africa's ability to
14:03connect with Washington. China has moved
14:05fast to plug some of the worst
14:06shortfalls, delivering food aid to
14:08Somalia, Togo, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, and
14:11giving South Africa a $3.49 million
14:13grant facilitated by UNAIDS to fund HIV
14:16prevention for 54,000 students and drug
14:19users. The grant marks China's first
14:21major entry into a sector that has long
14:24been dominated by the US President's
14:26Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or
14:28PEPFAR initiative, and demonstrated just
14:30how willing Beijing was to fill a role
14:33that America had carved out for itself.
14:35This willingness has paid off massively.
14:37[music] As of today, 62% of Africans
14:39view China's influence positively
14:41compared to 52% for the US. However,
14:44there's still a massive gap between what
14:46Washington used to provide and what
14:48Beijing is currently offering. USAID had
14:50a budget of $43 billion,
14:53about 6 and 1/2 billion of which went to
14:55sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, while China
14:57gave the continent much less. Mark
14:59Bohlund, a senior credit research
15:01analyst at Red Intelligence, told the
15:03South China Morning Post that China was
15:05only 10th on the list of the continent's
15:08biggest donors. China also doesn't have
15:10the infrastructure and networks that
15:12USAID built up over the decades that it
15:14was in service to ensure that aid gets
15:16to the people who need it most. And this
15:18is just one of the challenges that China
15:20is facing in its quest to dislodge the
15:22US from its position as the world's
15:25preeminent power. The other major
15:26challenge is the fact that no matter
15:28what Beijing does, some countries will
15:30always view it with suspicion and
15:31mistrust, especially those in Asia. Take
15:34Japan for instance. In November 2025,
15:36newly elected Prime Minister
15:37>> [music]
15:38>> attack on Taiwan could be considered an
15:39existential threat to Japan once serious
15:42enough to justify military action.
15:44Beijing's response made the old wolf
15:46warriors look like
15:50nuns by comparison. China's Consul
15:52General in Osaka wrote on X quoting him
15:54here, "The filthy head that recklessly
15:57sticks itself in must be cut off without
16:00a moment's hesitation." Holy [ __ ]
16:02>> [music]
16:03>> This statement and China's other moves,
16:05including suspending Japanese seafood
16:06imports, putting export controls on any
16:09exports with military use, and
16:10discouraging its citizens from going to
16:12Japan, told the world that for all of
16:14Xi's posturing about a more lovable
16:16China, the old instincts [music] still
16:18lurk beneath the surface. For other
16:20countries, especially those in the
16:21region, this will be a stark reminder of
16:23just how big a problem China can be if
16:26its interests are threatened in any way.
16:28It's also a reminder that no matter how
16:30belligerent Washington is acting, this
16:32belligerence, hopefully, has an
16:34expiration date. President Trump's term
16:36will end. He'll shuffle off to play
16:38endless rounds of golf, and whoever
16:40comes next could just as easily reverse
16:42course and restore America's
16:44relationship with its allies. [music] In
16:45China, on the other hand, Xi Jinping has
16:47set himself up to be president for life
16:49after presidential term limits were
16:50removed in 2018. Washington's hostility
16:53is one administration's choice. China's
16:56foreign policy, on the other hand, with
16:58all of its wolf warrior moments, feels
17:00more permanent simply because of how
17:02much control Xi Jinping has,
17:04>> [music]
17:04>> and the fact that whoever takes over
17:06after him will most likely be a
17:08hand-picked successor chosen to ensure
17:10the continuity of Xi's policies. This
17:13means that Washington, through a future
17:14administration, has a chance to reverse
17:16the foreign policy failures of the Trump
17:18administration. The question now becomes
17:21whether they will actually do it or
17:23whether they will allow China to keep
17:25racking up wins.
17:27Thank you for watching.