Full transcript
0:03So yesterday the key level we marked out
0:05was this area here and it
0:08never got into that zone
0:11until today's Asian session.
0:13It did come back into this and now it is
0:15starting to move down. So I'm still I'm
0:17still bearish on
0:20on the Euro USD.
0:22And even today we could see that they
0:24are wiping out the previous daily high
0:27and we can see a rejection.
0:30So we could expect price to fall down
0:32into the previous daily low and
0:34eventually into
0:36this low here.
0:37Because if we look at structure, this
0:40could be a high. This could be a low.
0:42This is a potential lower high and now
0:45price is
0:47trying to create a new lower low. That
0:49is what I'm seeing.
0:51Because even though the higher time
0:53frames are bullish, the time frames
0:55aren't supporting a
0:57bullish idea. So we're going to stick to
0:59sells today.
1:01They have taken out the previous daily
1:02high and we are seeing a small
1:04rejection.
1:05The 4-hour time frame is still bullish
1:08cuz this is the most recent breakout.
1:11This could be a high that is protected
1:12because it has taken out equal highs.
1:15So if we draw the Fibonacci from here
1:18to here, it has gone into a premium
1:20price
1:21and it has even tapped into
1:23a good imbalance.
1:26The 1-hour time frame is currently
1:28bearish because this is the most
1:31This right here is the most recent
1:32breakout that we have.
1:34Now today most likely
1:37the Frankfurt highs and the London highs
1:39could be protected because it has taken
1:41out
1:42this liquidity. This right here was the
1:44previous daily high.
1:46Now today when the market opened
1:48the Asian session expanded higher and
1:51during the day time
1:52they have taken out these this liquidity
1:55pool over here which was the previous
1:56daily high and now it has closed below
1:58it. So, this high
2:01this high right here, regardless of the
2:02time it was created, it might be
2:05protected because it has taken out daily
2:08highs, and it has broken structure.
2:10So, I'm going to have two plans today.
2:13Of course, an A+ setup would form
2:16right here.
2:19Above the London highs. We have a
2:21question. What's that? How about the 100
2:23EMA during Asia? Yeah, let's see.
2:26This right here was
2:28This is where an A+ setup could form.
2:30This is the London high, and if price
2:32can go above the London highs,
2:35tap into that same key level that we
2:37marked out yesterday,
2:38and then give us a confirmation. Now,
2:40all we have to do is wait until
2:43the M15 or the M5 turns bearish after a
2:45sweep of liquidity because
2:47the daily time frame is bearish, and the
2:491-hour time frame is bearish.
2:514-hour is bullish, it doesn't matter.
2:53So, all we have to do is if price runs
2:55above this,
2:56we could wait for
2:58a move like this down into
3:00all this liquidity. Today's London low,
3:03yesterday's low, and eventually down
3:05into this external range liquidity here.
3:07Can we enter directly once? No, that's
3:10not the strategy.
3:12So,
3:13this would be my A+ setup, and
3:17a low probability setup could form once
3:20price takes out the kill zone high,
3:23which is right here.
3:24Because, like I said, this high could be
3:26protected. I don't know. So, that's why
3:28I'm having two plans. I'm going to
3:30either look for a trade above the kill
3:32zone highs, and if that fails, I'm going
3:34to give myself one more opportunity
3:36above the London highs to look for a
3:38short, and
3:40if both get stopped out, I'm done. So,
3:42my plan would be
3:44an A+ setup, a high probability setup.
3:46I'm expecting it to form above the
3:48London highs,
3:49and I'm expecting a low probability
3:51setup to form above the key zone highs
3:53without a sweep of this liquidity.
3:55And for this, the key level could be
3:59let me see.
4:01They're breaking structure to the
4:02upside.
4:05So, a key level could be somewhere up
4:07here.
4:08Now, we are inside of
4:10an imbalance on the 1-hour already, but
4:12it's not at a premium price of this
4:14newly created range. So, I'm paying
4:17attention to this area over here.
4:20This would be my key level, and this
4:22would be the liquidity. So, my plan A
4:25as my high probability set up, I'm
4:26expecting it to form here.
4:29Like this.
4:31Plan B, as a low probability set up,
4:33would be from right here.
4:35So, I'll see what
4:38I'll I'll be monitoring this price
4:39action, and if it gives me the set up, I
4:42will take it because it is valid.
4:44And I know it's low probability, so if I
4:46get stopped out, I'm going to give
4:47myself one more chance up here. And
4:51if the set up forms, I will execute. If
4:53it stops me out, I'm completely okay
4:55with it because the time frames are
4:57aligning, the context is aligning, so
4:59you will have to take the risks. So,
5:01let's see what happens. This is my plan,
5:03and I'm waiting.
5:04Set up is currently at the 50% discount.
5:07No. I will wait for a premium price. I
5:09want to see price tapping into this
5:11imbalance. Or else into this previous
5:13break of structure point.
5:15So, anyway,
5:17this these are my two key levels on EUR
5:20USD today.
5:21First one is up here, and plan B is down
5:24here. My targets are here
5:27and here. I'm not looking for any longs.
5:29I'm
5:30only trying to short it based on the
5:33higher time frame structure because we
5:35saw this breakout. We saw this pullback
5:38which moved almost into a premium price.
5:4150% and I'm expecting this to turn into
5:44the lower high and a new lower low to be
5:46created. So, I'm expecting a drop down
5:48into this liquidity here.
5:50Let's see what happens. This is what I
5:52have.
5:53For now, let's
5:55keep it as it is and let's see what
5:57price is going to do.
5:59Now, let's take a look at USD/CAD.
6:04Again, yesterday we were expecting buys
6:06below the London low, the Asian lows,
6:08which never happened. It
6:10It took out the kill zone low,
6:12gave us a setup, which wasn't
6:15a very high probability one.
6:18Look at this. We saw a sweep of
6:19liquidity.
6:20We saw
6:22a break of structure.
6:24We saw all that, but then again, it was
6:26not the best setup.
6:28Let's see what we can expect today.
6:31They have taken out a high,
6:34a weekly high from
6:36from right here, but this almost looks
6:38like equal highs. So, we could expect
6:40price to
6:42move into this again.
6:44That is what I'm expecting, at least up
6:46into this.
6:49The daily time frame is still bullish.
6:51Now, if you look at structure on a line
6:53chart, we had highs, lows, higher highs,
6:55and the price has pulled back down,
6:58tapped into this week that wiped out all
7:00this liquidity.
7:02Took out the previous daily low, and we
7:04are seeing a good rejection.
7:06And we could expect price to move into
7:07this liquidity here.
7:09Then we go to the 4-hour.
7:11The 4-hour time frame is currently
7:14bearish because this was the breakout.
7:16So, we can draw the Fibonacci from down
7:18here to up here because
7:20this looks like structure. We had highs,
7:22we had lows, we have a new higher high.
7:25So, this is probably a higher low before
7:27the market creates a new higher high.
7:29And it has moved into a discount price.
7:33Let's go to the 1-hour.
7:35And the 1-hour time frame has turned
7:37bullish again.
7:39Just like EUR/USD, but flip it to the
7:42upside.
7:43It came down into a discount price. It
7:46has wiped out the previous daily low.
7:48Look at this. It went down, and now it
7:49has closed above it.
7:51So, again, even on
7:54USD/CAD, I have two plans. First one
7:56would be
7:58below the London low. A high probability
8:00buy setup would form below the London
8:03low because
8:04because that's a major liquidity pool.
8:07And a key level would be
8:11let's say
8:14Okay, I'm not going to force any key
8:15levels if there aren't any. We have an
8:17imbalance here that the market has now
8:18reacted to.
8:19This could be one.
8:21But, let's just pay attention to the
8:22liquidity.
8:24Or else, plan B
8:26would be a buy below
8:28the kill zone lows.
8:30Now, today, you guys can see why there's
8:32a little bit of a confusion because
8:34all this liquidity from the previous
8:37was not taken out at a very significant
8:39time. It was taken out during the dead
8:41time.
8:42And then the market started moving up.
8:43So, I'm not very sure if the London low
8:45is protected, so I'm having two plans.
8:48Plan A would be a buy below the London
8:50low.
8:51Plan B, a low probability idea would be
8:53to buy below
8:55the 7:00 a.m. low, or is the kill zone
8:57low
8:58from this imbalance over here.
9:01Now, if we go to a lower time frame and
9:03draw our Fibonaccis
9:06say from down here
9:08to up here. This is where we have
9:11the discount price of that range.
9:14And this could turn into the internal
9:16range liquidity.
9:18So, I would either expect a move like
9:21this
9:23or else a move below this.
9:26This is what I want to see.
9:28So, I'll have it marked out, and I know
9:31how much to risk on this and this, so
9:33you guys should know that as well. This
9:35is not a high probability setup. This is
9:37where a high probability setup would
9:38form, but high probability doesn't mean
9:41it's a winning trade. You just take the
9:43risk cuz everything aligns. So, this is
9:46my plan on
9:47USD/CAD. Either buy below the 7:00 a.m.
9:50low or it's a buy below the London low.
9:53Let's see what happens.
9:55And then let's go to gold.
10:00Start on a higher time frame again.
10:02So, we know that price can slowly push
10:05up into the all-time highs again. It's
10:07based on the weekly.
10:10Daily structure is still bullish. We saw
10:12highs. We saw a higher low, a higher
10:15high, and a higher low, and now we saw a
10:17new higher high up here.
10:19Yesterday, we were expecting price to
10:23pull back into somewhere here at least
10:26because this is where the discount
10:28prices were.
10:30But now they have taken out
10:32this liquidity.
10:34We could say it tapped into this market
10:36structure point. Or you could say it
10:38tapped into this imbalance.
10:40Same thing.
10:42And
10:43it has taken out a daily low, so I'm
10:45expecting price to
10:46continue higher and take out a new daily
10:49high.
10:52Then we go to the 4-hour.
10:54Yesterday cap city, I didn't see that.
10:56And the 4-hour time frame is currently
10:59bullish because it came down. It wiped
11:02out
11:03a daily low, and now the 4-hour time
11:05frame is bullish again. Look at this
11:07breakout.
11:09Then we go to the 1-hour.
11:12And the 1-hour time frame is also
11:14bullish. That is what we could see. Cuz
11:17these are the most recent breakouts.
11:19Give us a small pullback. It wiped out
11:22the kill zone low.
11:24And most important I'm sorry, this is
11:25the Frankfurt low. That's the London
11:27kill zone.
11:28It moved down, and it has closed above
11:30it, so which means this is a clear
11:32manipulation. So, gold will most likely
11:34give us a setup today, and then I would
11:37like to target this.
11:40These
11:41and eventually up here.
11:44Could you give an analysis on BTC? Yeah,
11:46let's check BTC out as well.
11:50So, today I'm expecting a
11:52a trade a buy below the kill zone lows
11:55right here. It could come from this
11:58support. You know what a support is?
12:01Or you could mark out the imbalance.
12:04Anything is fine.
12:06Do we have anything on the four? We have
12:08a tiny tiny gap right here on
12:10the four hour. So, let's not focus on
12:13those.
12:16So, we pay attention to the relevant
12:17price action.
12:20Yeah, so my trade I'm I'm looking for a
12:22trade on gold
12:24below
12:25this here. Below the 7:00 a.m. lows and
12:28then
12:29move up into these London highs.
12:32This random swing high and then
12:35I'm expecting price to continue into
12:36these over here. So, let's see what
12:38happens. We'll have to patiently wait
12:40for
12:41the New York session to open and then
12:43let's wait for a confirmation.
12:45Anyway, I'm expecting a buy below the
12:477:00 a.m. low.
12:49That's the kill zone low right here.
12:52And the key level could be the support
12:55or as any imbalance this anything is
12:57fine, but anyway, I'm not going to short
12:59it. I'm looking for longs only.
13:02Then let's go to NAS 100. No, I'm going
13:04to skip NAS 100 today as well because
13:06price action looks a little shitty.
13:09See this?
13:11That's a good a clear consolidation. So,
13:13my plan is to not trade NAS 100 until it
13:16runs out of this current range. I need
13:19to see it run above this
13:21or below this.
13:24If you guys are only trading NAS 100,
13:26you will have to wait a while,
13:28maybe until tomorrow's news events.
13:32But,
13:33yeah, I'm going to wait until it runs
13:35above this or below this. These are just
13:37random structure points that are within
13:40a bigger range. So, all this
13:44can see breaks, you can see this, you
13:45can see breaks to the downside, but none
13:48of those make a lot of sense because we
13:50are currently inside of a bigger time
13:52frame range. So, I would consider this
13:54as a consolidation and not take any
13:57trades
13:58on NAS 100.
14:00So, let's take a look at ECAD and BTC
14:03quickly.
14:08All right, so what did we have yesterday
14:10on
14:11No, guys, ECAD
14:13just stop trading ECAD for now. Look at
14:15this. Why do you trade this price action
14:18now?
14:18Clearly, I have told you guys to avoid
14:20this this type of price action.
14:23Look at the consolidation here.
14:25Why do you even want to trade this?
14:28If you took a winning trade, that's
14:29good, but
14:31this price action is not very healthy to
14:33trade in my opinion, so
14:36stay out.
14:38Not good.
14:39And BTC is still falling.
14:42You can see how it's coming down.
14:46Nothing
14:47nothing that makes sense on BTC. We have
14:50to now we talked about this in a
14:51previous
14:53I think a backtesting session or
14:54something.
14:57If we are going to go long on BTC, we
15:00have to wait for
15:01a good consolidation, at least a
15:03consolidation like this.
15:05And I mean, this is
15:08months of consolidation. Look at this.
15:10Started like on March and it went until
15:13October. Who knows? That can happen, but
15:15eventually
15:16once we see a spike like this and the
15:19lower time frames confirming everything,
15:21that is when we can go long. I don't
15:22know if we I don't know if it's going to
15:24go to zero or whatever. I don't know. I
15:26don't care.
15:27But if we are going to buy it, we have
15:29to wait for
15:30a small consolidation because
15:32consolidation means that
15:35most traders are getting trapped. So,
15:37there's more than enough fuel for price
15:38to move up. That is why we have we have
15:41to wait for a consolidation. So, for
15:43now, let's just wait.
15:45I'm not planning on shorting BTC. I
15:48don't know how
15:50that would work.
15:52And I don't like to trade this intraday.
15:56Yeah. So, for now, there's nothing much
15:59on
16:00There's nothing much on BTC. Let's just
16:03stay out of it for a while.
16:05Okay, US 30. Let's see what US
16:08No, no.
16:10I I was holding BTC and made a mistake.
16:13I saw all the reversal zones and all
16:15that, but thought oh, it's going to move
16:18higher. I had buys here.
16:20I saw this when price was tapping into
16:22the monthly imbalance, but I ignored it.
16:25I thought price was going to move up and
16:29it just dumped. So, my buy was here.
16:33It moved up. I didn't do anything and it
16:35started coming down. So, that happens.
16:36That's fine.
16:38Let's see. Hopefully, we can
16:40Hopefully, BTC moves up and we can catch
16:42a good move. I am paying attention to
16:44this, so I will keep you guys updated if
16:46I'm looking for any long-term setups.
16:50Let's take a look at US 30.
16:59Okay. So, looking at the weekly time
17:01frame, we are clearly bullish. Price is
17:03creating higher highs,
17:05higher lows, and higher highs.
17:08It came down
17:09and it took out a weekly low, made a
17:12rejection,
17:13tapped into an imbalance.
17:15So, I'm expecting it to run into these
17:18highs over here. This was the previous
17:19weekly high.
17:22The daily time frame is currently
17:24bearish.
17:26It's okay because this is a very clear
17:28manipulation. It moved down.
17:30It moved below this swing low, and
17:31yesterday closed above it. So, this is a
17:33clear manipulation. So, I'm expecting
17:35price to
17:36run into these highs over here.
17:40Yeah, that's fine. Imbalances can still
17:42be used.
17:45Or you can see this huge imbalance over
17:46here that was holding price as a
17:48support.
17:50Then we go to the 4-hour.
17:52And the 4-hour time frame is currently
17:55bullish.
17:58The 1-hour time frame is also bullish.
18:02>> [clears throat]
18:03>> Now, let's see where the liquidity pools
18:05are.
18:08Yes.
18:10So, the yesterday's low low could be
18:13strong because it has taken out the
18:15London low. Timing of the low was
18:17perfect. And it closed above it. I'm not
18:20going to look for any shorts.
18:22If I'm trading US 30, I'll be looking
18:24for longs, but at least below the London
18:26lows. Not below the kill zone low
18:28because the London low is not strong,
18:31and the Frankfurt low is also not
18:32strong. We have to look for
18:35the main liquidity pools, which are the
18:37London and the Frankfurt lows or the
18:38Asian lows. So, if I'm looking for a
18:41buy,
18:42I would look for a buy below
18:44this low right
18:45from this huge imbalance.
18:48This is where I would like to go
18:50long from.
18:52So, probably a move like this.
18:56And then a slow move up.
18:57Let's see what happens. Since NAS 100 is
19:00consolidating,
19:01this might have some shitty price
19:03action. I don't really trade this, but
19:06that could happen. Okay?
19:08So, we'll see that it comes. It's
19:10reaching the key level. So, the kill
19:12zone high is not made yet. That is why
19:14we have to wait for the candles to
19:15close.
19:17This is
19:18so far the killzone high. We have to
19:19wait eight more minutes. So, once this
19:22candle closes, you can mark out the high
19:24as liquidity. And on a lower time frame,
19:27you can see if this is going to happen.
19:29If that happens, we can short it down
19:31into the London lows. And again, I don't
19:33have to point this out. You have to know
19:36where your break-even points are
19:39and all that. Okay.
19:41So, let's see. Even this, we have to
19:43change. This will be the killzone low.
19:45We'll have it marked out. Okay.
19:47Yeah, then that's all for today, guys.
19:49We'll have another session tomorrow at
19:51the same time, so we'll talk then. Okay,
19:52so yeah, have a good day, guys. We'll
19:53talk soon. Bye.