Full transcript
0:01Antifragile : Things That Benefit from
0:04Chaos , by Nassim Taleb . Chapter 4. What
0:09Kills Me Makes Others Stronger . Layered
0:13Antifragility . This chapter is about
0:16error , evolution , and antifragility
0:18with the problem . It largely deals with
0:21the errors of others . The antifragility
0:24of some necessarily arises at the cost
0:26of the fragility of others . In a system
0:30, the sacrifices of some units , that is
0:33, fragile units or people , are often
0:35necessary for the well-being of other
0:38units or the whole . The fragility of
0:42each startup is necessary for the
0:44economy to be antifragile . And that is
0:47what makes entrepreneurship work , among
0:50other things : the fragility of
0:52individual entrepreneurs and their
0:55necessarily high failure rate .
0:58Antifragility then becomes a little
1:00more complicated and more interesting
1:03in the presence of layers and
1:04hierarchies . The natural organism is
1:07not a single final unit ; it is composed
1:10of subunits , and it itself can be the
1:12subunit of several larger collectives .
1:15These subunits can be confronted with
1:17each other . Let's look at another
1:20business example . Restaurants are
1:23fragile . They compete with each other .
1:27But the collective of local restaurants
1:29is antifragile for that very reason . If
1:31restaurants were individually robust
1:34and therefore immortal , the overall
1:37business would stagnate or weaken and
1:40offer nothing more than cafeteria food .
1:43And by that , I mean Soviet-style
1:45cafeteria food . Furthermore , it would
1:48be hampered by systemic shortages , an
1:51eventual general crisis , and government
1:54financial bailouts . All this quality ,
1:57stability , and reliability is due to
1:59the fragility of the restaurant itself .
2:03Thus , some internal parts of a system
2:06can be forced to be fragile in order
2:08for the system to become antifragile .
2:11Or the organism itself can be fragile ,
2:14but the information encoded in the
2:16genes that reproduce it will be
2:18antifragile . This is not a trivial
2:20matter , as it is based on the logic of
2:23evolution . This also applies to
2:25individual entrepreneurs and scientific
2:27researchers . Furthermore , we mentioned
2:30sacrifice a few paragraphs ago .
2:33Unfortunately , the benefits of mistakes
2:35are often attributed to others , to the
2:38collective , as if individuals were
2:40designed to make mistakes for the
2:42greater good and not for their own
2:45benefit . Sadly , we tend to discuss
2:48mistakes without considering this
2:51layered stratification and the transfer
2:54of fragility , evolution , and
2:58unpredictability . I stated that the
3:01notions of mithridization and ormesis
3:04were a proto-antifragility .
3:06Introductory concepts are even somewhat
3:09naive , and we will have to refine and
3:11even transcend them in order to analyze
3:14a complex system as a whole . Ormesis is
3:17a metaphor ; antifragility is a
3:20phenomenon . Firstly , mithridization and
3:24ormesis are only very weak forms of
3:26antifragility , benefiting in a very
3:29limited way from volatility , chance , or
3:32damage , and showing a certain reversal
3:35of the protective or beneficial effect
3:38beyond a certain dose . Ormesis
3:42appreciates only a little disorder , or
3:45rather , it needs a little disorder .
3:49Disorder is more interesting insofar as
3:52its deprivation is harmful , something
3:54that is not intuitively understood . Our
3:58minds cannot easily grasp complicated
4:01responses . We think linearly , and these
4:04responses from dependents are
4:06non-linear . Our linear minds dislike
4:09nuances and reduce information to the
4:12binary of harmful or useful . Second ,
4:16and this is the central weakness , our
4:19minds see the organism from the outside
4:21and consider it as a whole , a single
4:24unit , when things can be a little more
4:26subtle . There is a different and
4:30stronger variety of antifragility
4:32linked to evolution that goes beyond
4:35Ormesis . In fact , it is very different
4:38from Ormesis ; it is its opposite . It
4:41can be described as Ormesis ,
4:43strengthening itself in the face of
4:45damage , if we observe it from the
4:46outside and not from the inside . This
4:49other variety of antifragility is
4:51evolutionary and operates at the
4:53informational level . Genes are
4:56information . Unlike Ormesis , the unit
4:59does not become stronger in response to
5:02stress . It dies , but it concretizes a
5:05transfer of benefits . Other units
5:08survive , and those that survive have
5:11attributes that improve the collective
5:13of units , leading to modifications
5:16commonly attributed to the vague term "
5:19evolution " from textbooks and the
5:21Tuesday science section of The New York
5:24Times . Thus , the antifragility that
5:27deserves highlighting here is not so
5:30much that of the inherently weak
5:32organisms , but that of their genetic
5:34code , which can outlive them . The code
5:38doesn't really care about the
5:40well-being of the unit itself ; quite
5:42the contrary , since it destroys many
5:44things around it . Robert Trivers
5:47discovered the presence of competition
5:49between the gene and the organism with
5:52his idea of the selfish gene . In fact ,
5:55the most interesting aspect of
5:57evolution is that it only works because
6:00of its antifragility . It is enamored of
6:03stressors because of randomness ,
6:06uncertainty , and disorder . While
6:09individual organisms are relatively
6:12fragile , the genetic heritage takes
6:14advantage of impacts to enhance its
6:17performance . From this , we can perceive
6:20that there is a tension between nature
6:23and individual organisms . Everything
6:26that is alive or organic in nature has
6:28a finite life and eventually dies . Even
6:31Methuselah lived less than 1000 years ,
6:34but he generally dies after producing
6:37offspring with a genetic code , in one
6:39way or another , different from that of
6:42the progenitors , with his information
6:45modified . Methuselah's genetic
6:48information is still present in
6:50Damascus , in Jerusalem , and , of course ,
6:52in Brooklyn and New York . Nature
6:55doesn't consider its members very
6:58useful after their reproductive
7:00capacities are exhausted , except
7:02perhaps in special situations where
7:05animals live in groups , such as the
7:07need for grandparents among humans and
7:10elephants , in order to help others
7:13prepare their descendants to assume
7:16responsibilities . Nature prefers to let
7:19the game continue at the informational
7:21level , the genetic code . In this way ,
7:24organisms need to die so that nature is
7:27antifragile . Nature is opportunistic ,
7:30cruel , and selfish . As an example ,
7:33let's think of an immortal organism
7:35built without an expiration date . To
7:38survive , it needs to be completely fit
7:41for all possible random events that may
7:44occur in the environment . All future
7:48random events . Due to some unpleasant
7:53property , a random event is , let's say ,
7:56random . It doesn't announce its arrival
7:59in advance , making it possible for the
8:01organism to prepare and make
8:02adjustments to withstand the impacts .
8:05For an immortal organism ,
8:07pre-adaptation to all such events would
8:11be a necessity . When a random event
8:14happens , it's already too late to react
8:17. The organism should be prepared to
8:19withstand the impact or say goodbye .
8:22We've seen that our bodies somewhat
8:24overcome themselves in response to
8:27stressors , but this remains highly
8:29insufficient , as they still cannot
8:32predict the future . They can prepare
8:35for the next war , but lose it .
8:38Post-event adaptation , no matter how
8:41rapid , would always be slightly delayed
8:44. To satisfy the conditions of such
8:47immortality , organisms need to predict
8:50the future perfectly . Near perfection
8:53is not enough , but by letting organisms
8:56live one life at a time with
8:58modifications between successive
9:01generations , nature doesn't need to
9:03predict future conditions beyond the
9:06extremely vague idea of which direction
9:09things should go . In fact , not even an
9:12uncertain direction is necessary . Every
9:15random event will bring with it its own
9:18antidote in the form of ecological
9:20variation . It is as if nature
9:22transforms itself at every step and
9:24modifies its strategy at every instant .
9:27Consider this in terms of economic and
9:30institutional life . If it governed the
9:32economy , nature would not continually
9:35bail it out so that living beings would
9:37live forever , nor would it have
9:39permanent administrations and
9:41forecasting departments that would try
9:43to deceive the future . Nature would not
9:46allow the charlatans of the United
9:49States Office of Management and Budget
9:51to commit such errors , fruits of
9:54epistemic arrogance . If we look at
9:56history as a complex system similar to
9:59nature , then , like nature , it will not
10:02allow a single empire to dominate the
10:05planet forever , even if every
10:07superpower from the Babylonians to the
10:10Egyptians , from the Persians to the
10:12Romans , to modern America , had believed
10:15in the permanence of its domination and
10:18managed to produce historians to
10:20elaborate theories to that effect .
10:24Systems subject to randomness and
10:26unpredictability build a mechanism that
10:29goes beyond robustness to
10:31opportunistically reinvent themselves
10:33with each generation through continuous
10:36population and species change . Black
10:39swan management . Nature and similar
10:43systems appreciate diversity among
10:45organisms rather than diversity within
10:48an immortal organism . Unless you
10:52consider nature itself an immortal
10:54organism , as in Spinoza's pantheism or
10:57that present in Asian religions , or in
11:00the stoicism of Cryippus or Epictetus .
11:03If you encounter a historian of
11:05civilizations , try explaining this to
11:08them . Let's see how evolution benefits
11:12from randomness and volatility . To a
11:15certain extent , of course , the more
11:17noise and disturbances in the system ,
11:19up to a certain point — except for
11:22those extreme impacts that lead to the
11:24extinction of a species — the effect of
11:26the reproduction of the fittest and the
11:29effect of random mutations will act in
11:31defining the characteristics of the
11:33next generation . Let's say an organism
11:36produces 10 descendants . If the
11:39environment is perfectly stable , all 10
11:42will be able to reproduce . However , if
11:45there is instability , setting aside
11:47five of these descendants , who will
11:50likely be , on average , weaker than
11:53their surviving siblings , then those
11:56that evolution considers better overall
11:59will reproduce , causing the gene to
12:01adapt in some way , if there is
12:04variability among the descendants ,
12:06thanks to spontaneous , random ,
12:09occasional mutation , a kind of copying
12:12error in the genetic code . Then , the
12:15best should reproduce , improving the
12:18species . Therefore , evolution benefits
12:21from randomness in two ways : randomness
12:24in mutations and randomness in the
12:27environment . Both act similarly to
12:30cause changes in the characteristics of
12:32future generations . Even when an entire
12:36species becomes extinct as a result of
12:39some extreme event , this is not a major
12:41problem , as it is part of the process .
12:45This is still evolution in operation ,
12:48since the surviving species are more
12:51fit and take the place left by the lost
12:54dinosaurs . Evolution is not related to
12:58one species , but serves all of nature .
13:02However , understand that evolution
13:04appreciates randomness only up to a
13:07certain point . If a calamity completely
13:10eliminates life on our planet , the
13:13fittest will not survive . Similarly , if
13:18random mutations occur at too high a
13:22rate , the adaptive gain may not take
13:25hold ; it may even reverse thanks to a
13:28new mutation . As I will continue to
13:32repeat , nature is antifragile up to a
13:34point , but that point is quite high . It
13:37can withstand countless impacts . If a
13:41nuclear event eradicates most life on
13:44Earth , but not all life , some rat or
13:47some bacteria will emerge from nowhere ,
13:50perhaps from the bottom of the oceans .
13:54And the story will begin again , without
13:56us and without the members of the
13:58Secretariat of Management and Budget ,
14:01of course . So , in a way , while Ormesis
14:04corresponds to situations where the
14:06individual organism benefits from
14:09direct harm to itself , evolution occurs
14:12when the harm causes the individual
14:14organism to perish and the benefits are
14:17transferred to others , the survivors
14:20and future generations . To illustrate
14:24how families of organisms appreciate
14:26harm in order to evolve — again , up to
14:29a point , and not the organisms
14:31themselves — consider the phenomenon of
14:34antibiotic resistance . The more one
14:37tries to harm bacteria , the stronger
14:40they will survive , unless they are
14:43completely eradicated . The same happens
14:46with cancer therapy . Almost always , the
14:49cancer cells that manage to survive the
14:52toxicity of chemotherapy and radiation
14:55reproduce more rapidly and fill the
14:58void left by the weaker cells .
15:03Organisms are populations , and
15:05populations are organisms . I had the
15:08idea of seeing things in terms of
15:10populations and not individuals , with
15:12benefits for the latter resulting from
15:14harm to the former . This came from
15:17reading works on antifragility written
15:19by Antoine Dunchin , a physicist who
15:21became a geneticist . For him , analyses
15:24need to consider that an organism is
15:26not something isolated and independent .
15:28There are layers and hierarchies . If we
15:30think in terms of populations , we must
15:33transcend the terms ormesis and
15:35mithridization as characterizations of
15:38antifragility . Why ? To rephrase the
15:42argument presented earlier , ormesis is
15:45a metaphor for direct antifragility .
15:48When an organism directly benefits from
15:50harm , through evolution , something
15:52hierarchically superior to that
15:54organism benefits from the harm . From
15:58the outside , it seems that there is
16:00ormesis , but from the inside there are
16:02winners and losers . How does this
16:05stratification operate ? A tree has many
16:08branches , and these resemble small
16:10trees . Furthermore , these large
16:13branches have many more smaller
16:14branches , which resemble even smaller
16:17trees . This is a manifestation of what
16:20is called fractal self-similarity , a
16:22proposal by the mathematician Benoá
16:24Mandobr . There is a similar hierarchy
16:27in things , and from the outside we only
16:29distinguish the most superficial and
16:31apparent layer . The cell has a
16:33population of intracellular molecules .
16:36The organism , in turn , has a population
16:38of molecules , and the species has a
16:40population of organisms . A
16:42reinforcement mechanism for the species
16:44arises at the expense of some organisms
16:46, while the organism strengthens itself
16:48at the expense of some cells , both from
16:51top to bottom and from bottom to top .
16:53If you drink a poisonous substance in
16:56small quantities , for example , the
16:58mechanism by which the organism will
17:00recover is in accordance with
17:02evolutionary dunking within its system .
17:06In this way , the masses and weak
17:08proteins in the cells will be replaced
17:11by stronger , younger proteins , and the
17:13strongest will be spared , or something
17:16similar . When you feel hungry , it is
17:19the bad proteins that are broken down
17:22first and recycled by your own body .
17:25This process is called autophagy . This
17:28is a purely evolutionary process that
17:31selects and kills the weakest for the
17:33purposes of adaptation . But it is not
17:36necessary to accept the specific
17:38biological theory , such as aging
17:40proteins and autophagy , to understand
17:43the idea that survival pressures within
17:45the organism act on its overall
17:47improvement under the influence of
17:50external stress . Thank you . Mistakes .
17:58Now let's address mistakes and how some
18:01people's lapses benefit others . We can
18:04simplify the relationships between
18:07fragility , mistakes , and antifragility
18:09as follows . When you are fragile , you
18:12depend on things following the exact
18:14planned course , with as little
18:16deviation as possible , because
18:18deviations are more harmful than useful
18:20. This is why fragile people need to be
18:24very productive in their approach , and
18:26conversely , predictive systems cause
18:29fragility . When you want deviations and
18:33don't worry about the possible
18:35dispersion of results that the future
18:38may bring , since most will be useful ,
18:40you are antifragile . Furthermore , the
18:43random element of trial and error isn't
18:46entirely random if conducted rationally
18:49, using errors as a source of
18:51information . If each attempt provides
18:54you with information about what doesn't
18:56work , you begin to focus on a solution .
18:59Therefore , each attempt becomes more
19:01valuable , more like an expense than a
19:04mistake . And of course , you will make
19:06discoveries along the way , learning
19:12from the mistakes of others . Remember
19:15that this chapter is about layers ,
19:17units and hierarchies , fractal
19:20structure , and the difference between
19:22the interests of a unit and its
19:25subunits . Therefore , it is usually the
19:28mistakes of others that benefit us all ,
19:32and unfortunately , not them . We have
19:36seen that in the correct context ,
19:38stressors are information . For the
19:41antifragile model , the damage caused by
19:43errors should be less than the benefits
19:45. We are talking about some , not all ,
19:48errors . Of course , those that do not
19:51destroy a system help prevent greater
19:53calamities . The engineer and
19:56engineering historian , Henry Petrossky ,
19:59defends a very sophisticated point of
20:01view . If the Titanic accident had not
20:04been as fatal as it was , we would have
20:07continued to build ever larger ocean
20:09liners , and the next disaster would
20:12have been even more tragic . In this way
20:15, people were sacrificed in the name of
20:18the greater good , because , undeniably ,
20:21they saved more lives than were lost .
20:24The story of the Titanic illustrates
20:26the difference between the benefits to
20:28the system and the damage to some of
20:31its individual parts . The same can be
20:34said about the Fukushima disaster . It
20:37can be safely said that this tragedy
20:40made us aware of the problem with
20:42nuclear reactors and the small
20:45probabilities that prevented greater
20:47catastrophes . Notice that the errors of
20:51the naive , stress tests , and reliance
20:53on risk models became quite obvious at
20:56the time , just as the economic crisis
20:58before the accident was . Nobody wanted
21:01to listen to that . Each air accident
21:07brings us closer to safety , improves
21:09the system , and makes the next flight
21:12safer . Those that perish contribute to
21:16the overall safety of others . Suiz
21:21Flight 111 , TWA Flight 800 , and Air
21:24France Flight 447 enabled system
21:27improvement , but these systems learn
21:30because they are antifragile and
21:33configured to exploit small errors . The
21:37same , however , cannot be said about
21:39economic breakdowns , since the economic
21:42system , as currently constructed , is
21:45not antifragile . Why ? There are
21:49hundreds of thousands of flights every
21:52year , and an accident with one plane
21:54does not involve the others . That is
21:57why errors remain isolated and are
22:00highly epistemic . As globalized
22:03economic systems operate as a single
22:06element , errors propagate and combine .
22:12Once again , it's crucial to remember
22:15that we're talking about partial , not
22:18generic , small errors , not serious ,
22:20terminal ones . This distinguishes good
22:23systems from bad ones . Good systems ,
22:26such as airlines , are configured to
22:29have small errors , independent of each
22:32other , or , in fact , negatively
22:35correlated with each other , since
22:38errors decrease the chances of future
22:41errors . This is one way to understand
22:46how one environment can be antifragile ,
22:50aviation , and the other fragile , modern
22:53economic life , with its flat-Earth
22:56interconnectedness . If each plane crash
23:01reduces the probability of another ,
23:03each bank failure increases the
23:05probability of another occurring . We
23:09need to eliminate the second type of
23:12error , the one that produces contagion
23:14in our construction of an ideal
23:16socioeconomic system . Let's examine
23:20Mother Nature once more . The natural
23:25world was built from non-systemic error
23:27to non-systemic error . My mistakes when
23:30lifting stones , when I am
23:32well-structured , translate into small
23:34injuries that will guide me next time .
23:38When I try to avoid pain , after all ,
23:40that is the purpose of pain . Leopards ,
23:45whose movements are a true symphony of
23:48nature , are not guided by fit personal
23:52instructors to lift a deer to the top
23:55of a tree . Human advice may work with
23:59artificial sports like tennis , bowling ,
24:02or target shooting , but not with
24:05natural movements . Some companies revel
24:09in their own mistakes . Reinsurance
24:12companies that focus on catastrophic
24:15risks and are used by insurance
24:18companies to reinsure such
24:20non-diversifiable risks manage to fare
24:23well after a calamity or dark event
24:26that causes them to break their record .
24:30If they are still in business and
24:33prudent , few manage to plan for such a
24:36contingency . They compensate by
24:39disproportionately increasing premiums .
24:42Customers overreact and pay for the
24:45insurance . They claim to have no idea
24:48about fair value , that is , about
24:50appropriate reinsurance prices , but
24:52they know for sure that it becomes very
24:54expensive in times of stress , which is
24:57enough for them to accumulate money in
24:59the long term . All they need to do is
25:02keep their mistakes to a minimum so
25:04they can survive them . How to become
25:08Mother Teresa ? Variability provokes
25:12mistakes and adaptations . It also lets
25:15you know who your friends are . Their
25:18failures and successes will give you
25:20information . However , this is one of
25:22the good things in life . Sometimes you
25:25only know someone's character after
25:27you've hurt them with a mistake for
25:29which you are solely responsible . I am
25:32surprised by the generosity of some
25:34people in forgiving me for my mistakes .
25:38And of course , you learn from the
25:39mistakes of others . You never know what
25:42kind of person you are dealing with
25:44unless you are given opportunities to
25:47violate moral or ethical codes . I
25:50remember a classmate , a high school
25:53girl who seemed good and honest and was
25:56part of my childhood group of utopian
25:59anti-materialists . I learned that ,
26:02contrary to my expectations and her
26:05innocent gaze , she did not become
26:07Mother Teresa or Rosa Luxemburg , since
26:10she had abandoned her first and wealthy
26:13husband to be with another , even
26:15wealthier one , whom she abandoned after
26:18some financial difficulties , in
26:20exchange for another lover , even richer
26:23, powerful , and generous . In a
26:26non-volatile environment , I , and very
26:29likely she as well , would have mistaken
26:31her for a utopian and a saint . Some
26:34members of society , those who did not
26:37marry her , obtained valuable
26:39information , while others , her victims ,
26:43paid the price . Furthermore , I see a
26:46loser as someone who , after making a
26:49mistake , does not reflect on what
26:51happened , does not explore it , feels
26:55ashamed and defensive instead of
26:57improving with the new information , and
27:00tries to explain why they made the
27:02mistake instead of moving on . These
27:05types often consider themselves victims
27:08of some grand conspiracy , a bad boss ,
27:10or bad weather . Finally , a reflection .
27:15He who has never sinned is less
27:16trustworthy than he who has only sinned
27:18once . Someone who has made many
27:23mistakes , though never the same mistake
27:26more than once , is more reliable than
27:28someone who has never made any . Why
27:34does the collective hate the individual
27:36? We have seen that in biology ,
27:39antifragility works thanks to layers .
27:42This rivalry between suborganisms
27:44contributes to evolution . The cells
27:48within our bodies compete , and within
27:50them , proteins compete all the time .
27:53Let's translate the issue to human
27:55endeavors . The economy has an
27:58equivalent stratification : individuals ,
28:01artisans , small businesses , departments
28:03within corporations , industries , the
28:06regional economy , and at the top , the
28:08economy as a whole . One could even make
28:12finer cuts with a greater number of
28:14layers . For the economy to be
28:18antifragile and undergo what is called
28:21evolution , each enterprise must
28:23necessarily be fragile , exposed to
28:25disruption . Evolution requires
28:28organisms or their genes to die when
28:30supplanted by others , in order to
28:33achieve some improvement or to avoid
28:35reproduction when they are not as fit
28:38as the other individual . Thus ,
28:41higher-level antifragility may require
28:44fragility and sacrifices from
28:46lower-level antifragility . Every time
28:50you use a coffee machine to make your
28:52morning cappuccino , you are benefiting
28:54from the fragility of the coffee
28:56machine entrepreneur , who failed . He
28:59failed to help put a superior product
29:02on your kitchen counter . Consider also
29:06traditional societies . There , too , we
29:09have a similar stratification :
29:11individuals , immediate families ,
29:14extended families , tribes , people using
29:17the same dialects , ethnicities , groups .
29:21While sacrifice is common , for example ,
29:24in ant colonies , I am sure that
29:26entrepreneurs are not very interested
29:29in practicing haiku for the general
29:31good of the economy . They are ,
29:34therefore , necessarily concerned with
29:37seeking antifragility or at least some
29:39level of robustness for themselves .
29:43This is not necessarily compatible with
29:46the interest of the collective , that is
29:48, of the economy . Therefore , there is a
29:51problem where the property of the sum ,
29:54the aggregate , is different from the
29:56property of each of the parts . In fact ,
29:59it desires harm to the parts . It is
30:03painful to think of cruelty as an
30:05engine of improvement , but what is the
30:07solution ? There is none , unfortunately ,
30:09that can please everyone . But the way
30:12to mitigate the damage caused to the
30:14very weak . The problem is more serious
30:16than it seems . People go to business
30:19schools to learn how to do good while
30:22ensuring their survival . However , what
30:25the economy wants them to do
30:28collectively is not to survive , but
30:32rather to take on a lot of reckless
30:36risks and be blinded by adversity .
30:40Their respective sectors improve from
30:42failure to failure . Natural and
30:44nature-like systems want some
30:46overconfidence on the part of
30:48individual economic agents , that is ,
30:50the overestimation of their chances of
30:53success and the underestimation of the
30:55risks of failure in their businesses ,
30:58as long as their failure does not
31:00affect others . In other words , they
31:03want local overconfidence , but not
31:05global overconfidence . We have seen
31:09that the restaurant industry is
31:11wonderfully efficient precisely because
31:14restaurants , being vulnerable , go
31:16bankrupt every minute , and
31:17entrepreneurs ignore this possibility
31:20because they believe they will overcome
31:22adversity . In other words , some kind of
31:26reckless , even suicidal , risk-taking is
31:29healthy for the economy , provided that
31:32not everyone takes the same risks and
31:35that these risks remain small and
31:38localized . Now , when breaking the model
31:42, as we will see , with financial
31:45bailouts , governments usually favor a
31:47certain class of companies large enough
31:50to demand to be saved , in order to
31:52avoid contagion to other businesses .
31:56This is the opposite of healthy
31:58risk-taking ; it is the transfer of
32:00fragility from the collective to the
32:02inept . People have difficulty
32:05perceiving that the solution is to
32:07build a system in which the fall of one
32:10person cannot drag others down with
32:12them , because continuous failures work
32:14to preserve the system . Paradoxically ,
32:18many government interventions and many
32:20social policies have ended up harming
32:22the weakest and consolidating the
32:24established order . What doesn't kill me
32:29kills others . Pause to debunk a myth .
32:36As a defender of antifragility , I need
32:39to warn against the illusion of
32:41identifying it when it is , in fact , not
32:44present . We can confuse the
32:46antifragility of the system with that
32:48of the individual , when in reality it
32:50occurs to the detriment of the
32:52individual . The difference between
32:55ormesis and selection , Nietzsche's
32:57famous expression , " What doesn't kill
32:59me makes me stronger , " can easily be
33:01interpreted as mithridization or
33:03ormesis . It could be one of these two
33:06phenomena , but it could very well mean :
33:08what didn't kill me didn't make me
33:11stronger , but spared me because I am
33:13stronger than others , but it killed
33:15others and the average of the
33:17population is now stronger , because the
33:20weak are gone . In other words , I passed
33:24a conclusion test . In previous texts , I
33:27discussed the problem of the false
33:29illusion of causality with a newspaper
33:31article reporting that the new members
33:34of the mafia , former Soviet exiles , had
33:37become insensitive to a visit to the
33:39Gulag , the Soviet concentration camps .
33:42Since remaining in the Gulag killed the
33:44weakest , there was the illusion of
33:46strengthening . Sometimes we see people
33:49who have survived experiments and we
33:52imagine that , since the surviving
33:54population is more resilient , these
33:56experiments are good for them . In other
34:00words , the experiment may just be a
34:02ruthless test that kills those who fail
34:05. All we may be witnessing is that
34:07transfer of fragility , or rather , the
34:10antifragility of the individual to the
34:13system that I discussed earlier . Let me
34:16explain it another way . Of course , the
34:19surviving group is stronger than the
34:21initial one , but not exactly the
34:24individuals , since the weakest died .
34:27Someone paid the price for the system
34:29to improve . Me and us . This visible
34:34tension between individual and
34:35collective interests is new in history .
34:38In the past , it was dealt with almost
34:40considering the irrelevance of
34:42individuals . Sacrifice for the good of
34:45the group is behind the notion of
34:47heroism . It is good for the tribe , bad
34:49for those who perish under the spirit
34:52of war . This instinct for heroism and
34:55the attenuation of individual interests
34:57in favor of the community became
34:59shocking with suicide bombers .
35:02Pre-death terrorists enter a state of
35:04mind similar to a static trance in
35:07which their emotions lead them to
35:09become indifferent to their own
35:11mortality . It is a fallacy to say that
35:15suicide bombers are driven by the
35:17promise of reward from some Islamic
35:19paradise , replete with virgins and
35:21other entertainments . For , as
35:23anthropologist Scott Atlan pointed out ,
35:26the first suicide bombers in the Levant
35:29were revolutionaries of Greek Orthodox
35:32background , not Muslims . There is
35:36something like a switch within us that
35:38kills the individual in favor of the
35:41collective when people engage in
35:43communal dances , mass rebellions , or
35:45war . Their disposition becomes that of
35:49the herd . You are part of what Elias
35:51Canet calls a rhythmic and pulsating
35:54crowd . You might also consider yourself
35:57a different variety of the crowd
35:59experience during your next riot in the
36:01streets , when the fear of authorities
36:04disappears completely under the
36:05exaltation of the group . Now , let's
36:08generalize the issue . Observing the
36:10world from a certain distance , I
36:12perceive a complete tension between man
36:15and nature . Attention to the exchange
36:17of fragilities . We have seen how nature
36:20intends for the aggregate to survive .
36:23Not all species . Just as each species ,
36:26in turn , intends for its individuals to
36:29be fragile , especially after
36:30reproduction , so that evolutionary
36:33selection can occur . We have seen how
36:36this transfer of fragility from
36:38individuals to species is necessary for
36:40their overall survival . Species are
36:44potentially antifragile . Considering
36:46that DNA is information , but the
36:48members of the species are perishable ,
36:51therefore ready to sacrifice themselves
36:53and , in reality , designed to do so for
36:55the benefit of the collective .
36:58Antifragility and simple harmonic
37:00movement of antifragility . Some of the
37:05ideas about adaptation and selection
37:07presented here are not very comfortable
37:10for this author , which makes writing
37:12some passages quite difficult . I detest
37:15the cruelty of selection , the
37:17inexorable disloyalty of Mother Nature .
37:20I detest the idea of improvement
37:22through harm to others . As a humanist ,
37:25I am against the antifragility of
37:27systems at the expense of individuals .
37:30Because if we follow this reasoning , it
37:33makes us , human beings , individually
37:36irrelevant . The great advantage of the
37:39Enlightenment was to bring the
37:41individual to the forefront , with their
37:43rights , their freedom , their
37:45independence , their pursuit of
37:47happiness , regardless of what happiness
37:50means , and , above all , their privacy .
37:53Despite denying antifragility , the
37:56Enlightenment and the political systems
37:58that emerged from it somehow liberated
38:01us from the domination of society ,
38:03tribe , and family that had prevailed
38:06throughout history . Unity in
38:09traditional cultures is the collective ,
38:11and it could be perceived as something
38:14to be harmed by the behavior of an
38:16individual . Family honor is tarnished
38:19when , for example , a daughter becomes
38:22pregnant or someone is involved in
38:24large-scale financial fraud and Ponzi
38:26schemes , or worse , when someone teaches
38:29the charlatan discipline of financial
38:31economics in a university course . And
38:34these customs persist even recently ; in
38:37the late 19th or early 20th century , it
38:40was common , say , in rural France , for
38:43someone to spend all their savings to
38:45pay off the debts of a distant cousin .
38:49A practice called passer Leponge .
38:52Literally using a sponge to erase
38:54responsibility from the blackboard , and
38:57doing so to preserve the dignity and
38:59good name of the family . This was
39:03perceived as a duty . I confess to
39:05having done some things of that nature
39:07in the 20th century . It is evident that
39:10the system needs to exist for the
39:11individual to survive . Therefore , one
39:14must be careful in glorifying one
39:16interest at the expense of others when
39:19there is interdependence and complexity
39:21. In the CAR , the Sicilian Mafia , the
39:25designation of a man of honor , the Homo
39:28de Honore , suggests that a person
39:30captured by the police will remain
39:33silent and will not betray their
39:36friends , regardless of benefits , and
39:38that life in prison is preferable to a
39:41confession of guilt that would harm
39:44other members . The Cossanostra tribe
39:47comes before the individual , and what
39:50ended the Mafia was the recent
39:52generation of members who opted for
39:54plea bargaining . Note that honor in the
39:58Mafia is limited to such group
40:00solidarity . Otherwise , they lie , and
40:03there is nothing honorable about them
40:06in other domains . And they kill people
40:09from behind , something that on the
40:11eastern side of the Mediterranean is
40:13considered the purest form of cowardice
40:15. Similarly , we humans may have to be
40:19self-centered at the expense of other
40:22species at the risk of ecological
40:25fragility . If this guarantees our
40:28survival , our interests as a human race
40:31prevail over those of nature , and we
40:34can tolerate some inefficiency , some
40:36fragility in order to protect
40:38individuals . Although sacrificing
40:41nature too much may ultimately harm us .
40:45We have seen the trade-off between the
40:46interests of the collective and those
40:48of the individual . An economy cannot
40:50survive without breaking individual
40:53eggs . Protection is harmful , and
40:56restricting the forces of evolution to
40:59benefit individuals does not seem
41:01necessary , but we can protect
41:03individuals from hunger , provide some
41:06social protection , and offer them
41:09respect or more , as we will see later .
41:15National Entrepreneur Day . At the same
41:20time , if , as a true utopian , I hate
41:23what I'm thinking , I think there is
41:26hope . The heroism and the respect it
41:30deserves are a form of compensation
41:33from society for those who take risks
41:36on behalf of others . Entrepreneurship
41:39is a risky and heroic activity ,
41:42necessary for the growth or even the
41:45simple survival of the economy .
41:48Entrepreneurship is also necessarily
41:50collective for epistemological reasons ,
41:53in order to facilitate the development
41:55of skills . Someone who hasn't found
41:58something is providing knowledge to
42:00others . The best knowledge , that of
42:02absence , that which doesn't work , even
42:05if they receive little or no credit for
42:08it . This is a central part of the
42:11process that encourages reaching out to
42:13others . What is worse is not respected .
42:19I don't recognize the importance of the
42:22man whose overconfidence led him to
42:25open a restaurant and fail , enjoying my
42:28pleasant meal while he is probably
42:30eating instant noodles . To progress ,
42:34modern society should be treating
42:36ruined entrepreneurs in the same way we
42:39honor fallen soldiers . Perhaps not with
42:42as much honor , but using exactly the
42:44same logic . The entrepreneur is still
42:47alive , although perhaps morally
42:49defeated and socially stigmatized ,
42:52especially if he lives in Japan ,
42:54because there is no such thing as a
42:57failed soldier , alive or dead , unless
43:00he acted cowardly . Similarly , there is
43:04no such thing as a failed entrepreneur
43:07or a failed scientific researcher , just
43:09as there is no successful chatterbox ,
43:12philosopher , commentator , consultant ,
43:15lobbyist , or business school professor
43:18who doesn't take personal risks . Excuse
43:22me . Psychologists consider
43:24overconfidence a disease , blinding
43:26people to the probabilities of success
43:29when they engage in ventures . But there
43:33is a difference between benign , heroic
43:35risk-taking , which is beneficial to
43:38others — in the antifragile case — and
43:41the more unpleasant modern type ,
43:43related to negative black swans , such
43:46as the overconfidence of scientists
43:48calculating the risks of damage caused
43:51by the Fukushima reactor . In the first
43:55case , what they call overconfidence is
43:57a good thing , not a bad thing . And
44:00let's compare entrepreneurs with the
44:02meticulous business managers who climb
44:05the hierarchical ladder almost never
44:07facing any real disadvantage . Their
44:09group is rarely at risk . What Erasmus
44:12called * ingratitudo vuge * . The
44:16ingratitude of the masses is increasing
44:18in the age of globalization and the
44:20internet . My dream , the solution , is
44:23that we would have a National
44:25Entrepreneur Day with the following
44:28message : " Most of you will fail , be
44:30disrespected , become impoverished , but
44:33we are grateful for the risks you are
44:36taking and the sacrifices you are
44:38making for the sake of the planet's
44:41economic growth and forcing others out
44:44of poverty . " You are at the origin of
44:47our antifragility . The population
44:49thanks you .