Full transcript
0:00Hello everybody and welcome to a long
0:03awaited episode of The Cradles uh Rock
0:06the Cradle um series. We have been
0:10offline for a month and so very happy to
0:13be back with uh a regular Mr. Province
0:18Sony. He is a um formerly with the
0:22Indian military and director of the
0:24Force Research Institute but also
0:27importantly host of the very popular
0:29Force magazine YouTube channel. We will
0:32link to it in the description below.
0:34It's a mustwatch for me and all the
0:36smart people I know. So, welcome Pravin.
0:39We we look forward to this because a
0:42lot's happening in the region right now.
0:44>> Thank you so much for having me on your
0:46show. Thanks a lot. Um, Pravin, there
0:50has been over this weekend a major
0:52exchange of missile fire by Iran and the
0:55US targeting oil tankers and even uh a
0:59US destroyer.
1:01Uh the new secretary of Iran's Supreme
1:05National Security Council, Mosen Razi,
1:08said in a very recent interview that
1:10Iran didn't use a ballistic missile for
1:13that attack on the destroyer, um but a
1:16new weapon. But let's go to Iran's
1:19escalation ladder, which we've talked
1:21about before. This is a country that
1:24takes its time to send messages and only
1:26does so when necessary and to serve a
1:29strategic objective unlike the
1:32Americans. Um what is Iran's intent in
1:35this new round? You know, one seems
1:39obvious to me which is to punch a hole
1:40in Trump's claims that tankers worth $9
1:44billion are getting through hormones
1:46daily. Um, and two, it seems to me that
1:51Iran is now looking to force an end to
1:54the US naval blockade.
1:58>> Okay, let's start from the beginning. A
2:01bit of a background is necessary to get
2:03to your point.
2:05The background is that all along uh what
2:08the Iranians were doing is since the war
2:11started on February 28th,
2:14the primacy was given to the diplomacy.
2:17That was the key thing
2:19>> and as far as the military was
2:21concerned, it was responding tit for tat
2:24to whatever the Americans were doing in
2:26the region. So it was a proportionate
2:29response from the Iranian military IRGC.
2:33Now when we look at diplomacy what they
2:35were trying to accomplish is create a
2:39regional framework.
2:42What that means is when we say a
2:44regional security framework it means
2:47that all the issues concerning the
2:50region should be resolved by the
2:52countries of the region itself without
2:55any interference from outside parts.
2:58That's a regional framework and this is
3:00something entirely new. Just to put it
3:03in a context, this is the thinking of
3:06the new world order which has the
3:08support of two great powers Russia and
3:11China in the multipolar world. So what
3:14we saw was that Iran's foreign minister
3:18Abbas Sarakshi in the month of May and
3:21June he traveled to Russia. He met up
3:25with President Putin for an hour and a
3:27half in St. in Petersburg.
3:29After that in early June he traveled to
3:33China met up with his counterpart Wong
3:36Hei got the support for this framework
3:39from both the countries and after that
3:41when he came back the Iranian leadership
3:45would have discussed this that look
3:46we've got the support and after that on
3:49the 30 23rd of June Iranian President
3:53Pishkan he did a state visit to Pakistan
3:57to get Pakistan on
3:59The Pakistan leadership because Pakistan
4:01is playing a very important role in this
4:05re framework. The idea of which is about
4:08is coming from Iran. But this is one of
4:12the key fundamentals of the new world
4:14order. As I pointed out as a consequence
4:17of that what has happened is that on the
4:2031st of August two big events happened
4:24simultaneously on the same day.
4:27On 31st of August in Islamabad sorry in
4:31Istanbul in Turkey there was a
4:34announcement that uh there will be a
4:37formalized arrangement was made to be
4:40called Makkah joint defense agreement
4:44where there are three countries which is
4:47Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The
4:50concept is of collective security which
4:53is what this new world order fundamental
4:55thinking is about.
4:58So on the same day 31st of August the
5:01SEO summit also happened in Kygystan
5:05and in Kygystan when you look at the
5:07joint statement there was total support
5:10given to Iran.
5:13support not only to Iran its territorial
5:15integrity and sovereignity
5:18to the fact that there was aggression on
5:20Iran by America and Israel and that Iran
5:26should have or can have peaceful uses of
5:29nuclear energy under the NPT. So there
5:33was total support for Iran and the Iran
5:35thinking of a regional framework.
5:38Now once this was done on the 31st of
5:41August, this is when the Iranian
5:44leadership decided now we need to give
5:47primacy to the military power.
5:50And that is when
5:53the lead was taken by the secretary of
5:56the supreme national security council
5:58major general mer.
6:01Now he is an extremely important man. So
6:05after that there were tanker totanker
6:07hits. Now you see a tanker does not have
6:10any defensive means. But the key thing
6:13was what resided.
6:16He fired something unusual that the
6:19Iranians had not done before. And first
6:22thing to note is that the firing was not
6:25done by the IRGC Navy. It was done by
6:29the IRGC aerospace force.
6:33And what was fired was a anti-ship
6:36ballistic missile
6:38with a suppressed trajectory or a
6:42depressed trajectory. And this missile
6:44is being called Kasim Basir.
6:48Now this was basically fired as a
6:50demonstration to tell the Americans that
6:54look all your fleet which is part of the
6:57naval blockade that you have put there.
7:00A naval blockade is an act of war. Until
7:04now, the Iranians were quiet about it.
7:07So this was a clear indication about the
7:10vulnerability that the US military faces
7:13and sentcom acknowledged
7:16that yes this missile ballistic missile
7:18was fired but our aircraft carrier
7:21obviously it was George Washington. Now
7:24what happens is that whenever there is a
7:26aircraft carrier then there are lot of
7:29guided missile destroyers which provide
7:33it basically the security which provide
7:36the defense and what these guided
7:39missile destroyers have what is called
7:42the uh AG system. Now in this edges
7:46combat system the interceptors are there
7:50and the interceptors of the American
7:53destroyers are of ra company. There are
7:56three types. The SM2 which is standard
7:59missile 2, standard missile 3 and
8:01standard missile 6. The long and short
8:04of the story is that the missile that
8:07was fired anti-hship ballistic missile
8:10with a depressed trajectory. It
8:12basically means that it it did not leave
8:15the atmosphere. It stayed within the
8:18stratosphere on the higher reaches of
8:21the atmosphere. So we are looking at an
8:23altitude of about 60 to 80 or 90
8:27kilometers. It stayed there and it had a
8:31speed of close to 10 MAC and MAC is the
8:35speed of sound.
8:37and it it fired at by the IRGC aerospace
8:41force. It was fired at a distance of
8:44around 1,000 kilometers and with a
8:48warhead which has a weight of close to
8:511.3 ton. Now this SM6
8:56this is supposed to take on a ballistic
8:58missile a hostile ballistic missile
9:02within the atmosphere when it is in the
9:04descent phase. It is coming down because
9:07a ballistic missile follows a parabolic
9:10path. It is a very clearly defined path.
9:13But the problem here is that this
9:16missile is coming at such a speed and
9:19the SM6 interceptors of the Americas
9:23they have only been tested in a
9:25controlled environment not in a
9:27operational environment.
9:30And when you have this missile coming at
9:33such a speed, it does not give any
9:35reaction time to the SM6 and the radar
9:39of the Aegis system which is a very good
9:41radar to basically identify the that yes
9:45there is a hostile missile coming and to
9:48kill that missile. So the point I'm
9:51making is as far as the Americans are
9:53concerned, they are totally defenseless
9:56against this missile and the Americans
9:58know it. And what this missile can do is
10:02because of its 1.3 or 1.2 ton warhead,
10:07>> it has explosive power and it has kyetic
10:09energy.
10:11So if it hits the ship, it can actually
10:14go through the deck of the ship. That is
10:17what it can do. So the point here is uh
10:21Mos Razai has made it clear that this is
10:24the capability we have and what is being
10:27told to the Americans is on the one hand
10:31that look you lift your naval blockade
10:35that you have put in place. It was put
10:37two times once on the 13th of April and
10:41after that early July you know I think
10:44it was early July after they signed
10:46theou on 17th of June. So the point
10:50being made is that this is your
10:52vulnerability and we'll hit it and
10:55already now the reports are saying that
10:58sentcom they have moved their ship
11:00further back and what RAI has further
11:04announced is that look wherever the line
11:07of the blockade now is of the blockade
11:10starting from there there'll be a
11:13restricted zone a restricted zone that
11:17covers the Gulf of Oman state of Hermos
11:20and goes all along the Persian Gulf to
11:22the north. We are talking about a length
11:26of 1,500
11:28kilometers. This will all be restricted
11:31zone. So the long and short is enormous
11:34capabilities they have in state of
11:36Hermos. Not to go in the details right
11:39now. I'm just trying to give you a broad
11:42of what's happening. So what they are
11:45basically saying the Iranians is that on
11:48the one hand we are announcing very soon
11:51a restricted zone because Raz has said
11:55that this is not state of Hermos this is
11:58state of Iran's dignity
12:00that is what they are calling it now on
12:03the other hand they have made the
12:06conditions for resumption of talk with
12:09Trump extremely harsh and extremely
12:12difficult and Of all the conditions, if
12:15you ask me, I have to pick up a single
12:17one. I would say that they want the
12:20American forces out of West Asia. This
12:24is very big thing in because you see
12:27what I earlier mentioned to you that
12:29they have created this regional
12:32framework the physical manifestation of
12:35which is the Makkah joint defense
12:37agreement with headquarters in Saudi
12:40Arabia and the first secretary general
12:43to be from Pakistan.
12:45It's a very big thing and on top of that
12:49already two countries Sergi Lavrov has
12:52said they are interested in joining this
12:56uh you know this Makkah joint defense
12:58agreement and these countries are Egypt
13:01that will be a very big thing because
13:03Egypt basically is a country which is
13:06transcontinental
13:08the Sinai is in part of West Asia but
13:11all the Egypt is in North Africa and
13:14then Algeria has been mentioned as
13:17another country. So th this is what is
13:20being created is get the Americans out
13:22of West Asia. So uh let me just finish
13:27this broad overview by telling you that
13:30Americans today have no military options
13:33at all given their vulnerability. And
13:36what is their vulnerability? They have
13:39enormous military capabilities.
13:41They are one country which spend $1
13:44trillion
13:45on the Pentagon on the defense budget.
13:49But unfortunately the capabilities they
13:52have they are of the 20th century
13:54warfare.
13:55>> Big destroyers big aircraft carrier or
13:58has changed.
14:00>> These are the vulnerabilities are now
14:02now longer the assets. And I'm not even
14:06talking about right now the enormous
14:09cyber capabilities that today the
14:11Iranians have. So Iranians are wise
14:15people who have gone step by step. There
14:18are far too many other vulnerability
14:20also which they can destroy and the
14:23Americans know it. So Americans Yeah.
14:26Please.
14:27>> No, you've given us such a broad uh
14:29overview that you've almost hit my
14:31entire lot of questions. So, so let's
14:34dig deeper into some of these points.
14:36Uh, Mosen Rzzi of course announced that
14:40he said that Iran would announce shortly
14:43this new nogo zone around Hormos which
14:47would extend to the US Navy's blockade
14:50line. We don't actually know where the
14:53blockade is. Um because the Americans
14:57don't announce where their their ships
15:00are based in in various waterways. But
15:03it sounds you were talking about going
15:05to the north of the Persian Gulf. Sounds
15:07that Iran is now expanding the military
15:09theater in waterways
15:12well into the Arabian Sea and Indian
15:15Ocean from where the US Navy ostensibly
15:19enforces its blockade. Um, but you know,
15:23here's the thing. The US Navy is likely
15:27to strike Iranian ships in any waters
15:30anywhere in the world. So it's not a
15:32blockade in the typical sense you know
15:35where you prevent ships from moving
15:37within a defined
15:40uh you know waterway geography.
15:43How do you see this development? Right.
15:46First of all, first of all, there are
15:49reports and you have satellite pictures
15:53because the Iranians are helped by the
15:56Chinese space capabilities which are way
15:58way ahead that of the Americans which is
16:01why in 2019 President Trump in his first
16:04term in office he created the space
16:07force a new service.
16:09Now the point here to understand is that
16:13reports clearly say that the blockade is
16:16300 kilometers away from the Gulf of
16:20Oman. And the sentcom reports now are
16:23coming and saying they pulled back now
16:25another 100 kilometers. So we are
16:28talking about a 400 kilometer present
16:31line. Now talking of theater what you
16:34said let's understand what is the war
16:37theater about for Iran
16:41cruty the Iranians have the missiles and
16:44the drones Iranians have drones which
16:47are jetpowered
16:49which are long range which can fire with
16:52precision because of the space
16:54capabilities provided by the Chinese
16:57their bedu 3 constellation as well as
17:00their yagon augumentation
17:02satellite systems which are there in the
17:04low earth orbit which provide you a
17:07persistent stare of the theater and the
17:11theater today when you look at the north
17:14it goes to the entire Mediterranean Sea
17:18and now you look at south in the Indian
17:21Ocean we are talking about the
17:24capability of Iran to hit DOashia
17:28>> and DGO Gashia today is one logistic
17:31base of the Americans which is serving
17:34three commands.
17:36It is serving the Africa command, it is
17:38serving SECOM and it is serving Pacific
17:41command. And given the cyber
17:43capabilities that today the Iranians
17:46have first of all the cyber capabilities
17:50are such that they can anywhere in the
17:53state of Hermos or around that disturb
17:57or disrupt
17:59uh the communications
18:02shipto- ship communications of the US
18:05Navy and shiptoshore communications and
18:08as far as DGO Garcia is concerned the
18:11entire entire logistic base of the
18:13Americas which is a huge base is
18:16automated.
18:18So it is all digitized. Now when you
18:21have all digitization that means your
18:23missiles are in a particular bunker,
18:26your fuel is somewhere else then your
18:28loading sites are somewhere else then
18:30they have massive runways for their
18:33stealth bombers. Everything is there
18:35digitized and the brain of a
18:38digitization is what is called the PLC.
18:42programmable logic controllers.
18:45And today the Iranians have come a very
18:47long way from 2010.
18:50Please recall in 2010 the Americans and
18:54the Israelis they had done their stucks
18:59uh you know uh uh
19:02>> stet sabotage of their centrifuges
19:06>> malware malware. And what they did with
19:09that was that the sentry flukes of the
19:12Nasan's facility nuclear facilities they
19:15were disrupted.
19:17So today the Iranians have come a long
19:20way and they can disrupt the PLC's which
19:23are there in docia. In other words
19:26create disturbance, create complete
19:29chaos at docia. So what theater are we
19:32talking of? What capabilities are we
19:34talking of? So they cover everything
19:38their drones and missile capabilities
19:41and everything what they have is
19:43underground. the Iranians. This is a
19:46work done over decades. What they have
19:49done over decades they have studied the
19:52Americans the military capabilities of
19:54Americans and the strategy of the uh
19:58Israelis
20:00>> and of course the American the US Navy
20:03has retreated to Diego Garcia because
20:06they've lost access to the fifth fleet
20:10headquarters in Bahrain.
20:13Um correct
20:16>> that's right so they have lost basically
20:19the fifth fleet in Baharin the
20:21infrastructure has been destroyed there
20:24so now the logistics for their ships it
20:28is coming from Diggo Garcia and because
20:31Pexet kept this he did not disclose this
20:34perhaps even to his commanderin-chief
20:37the destruction which was done so early
20:40by the Iranians uh in Bahari came into
20:43the logistics center that we we then now
20:46we have the reports of the problems that
20:50Abraham Lincoln the aircraft carrier
20:52faced. It was all because of not telling
20:57publicly as to what all has happened on
21:00Abraham Lincoln.
21:01>> So Abraham Lincoln now I think is
21:03somewhere in Thailand.
21:05>> Thailand. Yeah.
21:06>> Why would they go all the way to
21:08Thailand and not to Diego Garcia?
21:10>> No. Digashia basically is a port for the
21:14refilling. It is a logistic port but for
21:17the repairs and everything they have to
21:19go to Thailand because now in East Asia
21:22they have basically three allies.
21:25Thailand is one ally, South Korea is
21:28another and Japan is another and then of
21:30course they have Australia. This is what
21:33they have. Now as far as Pacific Command
21:35is concerned there they have massive
21:38shortages of interceptors
21:41>> and munitions and all these interceptors
21:45they take years to build. Not to that
21:49you see America's industrial military
21:52industrial capabilities
21:55they are very frugal right now to build
21:58them up to a war surge level that will
22:02take a few years
22:04>> nothing will happen in a hurry. So the
22:06point is that when you talk of a
22:08theater, the theater are under the
22:11command of and the not command really
22:14they are under the observation
22:17total observation 24 into 7 what is what
22:20we call persistent stare of the
22:23Iranians.
22:25>> It very much looks like Iran is now
22:27determining the c the pace if you will
22:30of of the war and where it's going. Um,
22:34but I want to draw attention to another
22:36coastline in West Asia provin uh Yemen
22:40forces
22:41uh seem poised to take Moa
22:44which is on the Red Sea coast and I
22:47think maybe we should put a map up here
22:49to describe this. Taking Moa in the
22:52province of Tais would essentially give
22:55Ansara complete control over Yemen's
22:58entire Red Sea borders. Moa is also one
23:02of the two ways uh for the Saudis to
23:06deliver weapons to their mercenaries in
23:08in Yemen. One is through the Saudi
23:10Yemeni border, the other one is
23:12obviously through the coastline. Um is
23:15there any country or force today capable
23:19of stopping this? Meaning Ansarad taking
23:23what it wants um in Yemen.
23:27>> Yes, the reports have already come. I
23:29just saw the reports that the Saudis now
23:32want to have talk with the Yemenes. They
23:35don't want to escalate things any
23:37further. They have realized that this
23:39will not work and they have also
23:41realized that it is on their soil
23:45perhaps in Riyad that the headquarters
23:48of the joint uh Makkah joint defense
23:52agreement or the infrastructure has to
23:55come up. So they are basically now
23:58committed to collective security and
24:01collective security what this means is
24:04that when you have a problem you have to
24:06discuss the problem with the other side
24:08and find a common solution. There is
24:11something called a collective security,
24:14something called a absolute security.
24:16And this is the difference between one
24:18world order which is in decline which
24:21believes in absolute security because
24:24absolute security is a zero sum game
24:26about security and what that means is
24:29that you have crisis and you have wars.
24:34On the other hand, collective security
24:36is a responsibility where you want to
24:39focus on development both the sides. So
24:42you find a common security, a relative
24:45security, a indivisible security. It's a
24:49collective security is a different
24:50concept and as far as Saudis are
24:53concerned Saudis I'm sure will come to
24:56their senses and I'm sure that the
24:59Pakistanis would be telling them
25:01privately also that you have vision 2020
25:06you focus on that and you sit down with
25:09the Yemenes instead of fighting with
25:12them you need to resolve your
25:14differences and find a common ground
25:16because as far as Yemenes are concerned.
25:19They have today demonstrated the
25:22capability to hit and destroy a Ramco's
25:28uh facilities and their refineries both
25:32on the on the Red Sea. I mean all over
25:35they have that capability and the Saudis
25:37are coming to realize that that you
25:40don't go around I mean right from you
25:42recall when the supreme leader's funeral
25:45was to happen the Saudi started you know
25:48by blocking the Sana international
25:50airport and that is trouble started and
25:53since then it has been going on but now
25:57that uh Saudis want to be counted as a
26:02responsible country for collective
26:04security. I'm sure they'll now be
26:07talking with the Yemenes, the Houthis,
26:10and this is what the report also says
26:13that the Saudis want to talk.
26:17This will be very interesting to watch
26:19because if the Saudis actually move out
26:21of Yemen completely, it will be a
26:22capitulation.
26:24There's uh a quote going back to this
26:26the founder of the house of Saud that
26:29basically
26:31has said since the beginning of the
26:33kingdom that for if Yemen succeeds Saudi
26:36will fail and vice versa. Okay. So I
26:40mean it will be very interesting to
26:41watch. I know for years, I mean, since
26:44the 2015 attack on Yemen began, there
26:47was certainly a time within two years
26:49that the Saudis wanted to strike a deal
26:51and get out and the Americans uh
26:55refused. And I I think at this point the
26:58Israelis would not want this either. So
27:00much to develop there. But to your point
27:02about the Mecca defense agreement, you
27:05know, a lot of people are doubting that
27:08its signatory nations will in fact fight
27:11wars for each other. But I think, you
27:13know, I think as you have mentioned
27:15before, they're wrong about that. That
27:18is it is are they wrong about that
27:21because that's not what its intent is.
27:24Could this deal in Mecca, as you often
27:27state, have been instead to build the
27:30foundation for a completely different
27:32security arrangement in West Asia? One
27:35that includes all key countries
27:37including Iran.
27:40>> Yeah. So you see it's like this. Let me
27:43first answer the first point that you
27:45have raised. See uh this agreement of
27:49the Baka joint defense agreement has
27:52only happened on the 31st of August
27:56and with this the collective security
27:59vision of the new world order we have
28:01seen the physical manifestation of that
28:04in the form of this agreement that's one
28:07so whatever the thinking of the Saudis
28:10and the Yemenes was beforehand
28:13before this agreement now that needs a
28:16revision
28:17It needs a revision. It's not about
28:19Saudi winning or Yemenes winning because
28:23this is not any longer about absolute
28:25security that it is a zero sum game that
28:28if I win then you have to lose. It is
28:31about win-win.
28:33It's a different game alto together and
28:35that is what these two sides will learn
28:38and there will be countries who will be
28:40explaining to these sides especially
28:42Pakistan will be explaining because
28:44Pakistan has a separate uh defense
28:47cooperation agreement with the Saudis
28:50that it signed in 2025 I think
28:53September. Now uh your other point about
28:57Iran joining this. So in my assessment
29:00Iran will join only when the American
29:04forces eventually leave South As sorry
29:08West Asia which of course is a long way
29:11to go. And the reason why I argue or
29:14make this argument is because Iran
29:17joining is likely to jeopardize and
29:20hamper the expansion of this agreement
29:24or what is also be called the alliance
29:27because lot of countries will be
29:29hesitant to join it. What we have to
29:32understand is that the idea originated
29:34from the Iranians
29:37and now the Pakistanis are doing the
29:39heavy lifting in this along with of
29:42course two countries Turkey and Saudi
29:44Arabia and we have to understand right
29:47from the beginning when the war started
29:50Iranians the wise people that they are
29:53they understood that Pakistan has to be
29:56included which is why on the 17th of
29:59June when The MOU was signed. As far as
30:03Iran is concerned, Iran calls it
30:05Islamabad MOU.
30:07>> You seem very hopeful about Pakistan
30:10having an absolute
30:13>> view to shaping a new world order
30:17because the new world order you talk
30:19about is really without the West, right?
30:23It it's it's devoid of Western hegemony
30:25at least. Um when we hear about uh field
30:30marshal Aimir for instance heading to
30:33Iran uh the reports are always that he's
30:36there to discuss theou and getting back
30:39to theouou as opposed to a larger
30:42vision. Why are you so hopeful that
30:44Pakistan is within this loop? Because
30:48for many Pakistan sits firmly between
30:50the US and China and plays both sides to
30:55its advantage.
30:57I mean everything you're suggesting
30:59suggests that Pakistan is absolutely
31:01dropping the US's concept of what what
31:04should emerge after these
31:07confrontations.
31:08Um and I'm I'm very curious about that
31:10because we we can see that Pakistan's
31:12become a key country uh you know in West
31:16Asian geopolitics which it wasn't until
31:19the you know the the the clash between
31:22India and Pakistan the air fights which
31:24seemed to change world opinion about
31:26Pakistan overnight. Um it will yes it
31:30will clearly be a leader in shaping
31:32security arrangements. It is leading the
31:34Mecca uh agreement. uh it is you know
31:38developing
31:40uh co-developing weapon systems with the
31:43Chinese uh it understood that it's China
31:46it is with China's help of its military
31:48forces that Pakistan was able to come
31:52out winning um where does that leave
31:56India
31:58>> no let me answer let me answer the
32:00Pakistan part first
32:02>> theou that was signed between president
32:05and President Trump the moderator who
32:08signed there was the Pakistani prime
32:10minister Shabak aksh Sharif it is not so
32:14mediator means that Pakistan has good
32:16relations in fact Pakistan is the only
32:19country today which has good ties with
32:22all the three great parts in the world
32:24today which is America China and Russia
32:27that's one part there's no other country
32:30the other thing is that why it is an
32:32important player in West Asia
32:35uh for this regional framework which is
32:38being made this Makkah agreement is
32:41because Pakistan has is a exceptional
32:44country which has nuclear weapons which
32:48has no diplomatic ties with Iran sorry
32:51with Israel. It has no diplomatic ties
32:55with Israel.
32:56So you when you have and it is an
32:58important member of the OIC the 57
33:01member country and as far as its
33:04conventional capabilities of military
33:06are concerned the Americans they have
33:09said in that 2025 US Congress report
33:13that in the 4-day clash that happened
33:16>> between India and Pakistan in May of
33:192025
33:21in that clash the Pakistani military did
33:23better. This is from the US Congress
33:26report and obviously that report is
33:28followed by the countries of West Asia
33:30also.
33:32>> So what Pakistan is now doing is going
33:34beyond West Asia. Pakistan already has a
33:39defense cooperation agreement that it
33:42has signed with Somalia.
33:45Somalia it is basically now looking at a
33:48Islamic framework
33:51a framework beyond West Asia. In other
33:55words, while Pakistan has very good ties
33:58with the Americans, Pakistan is that one
34:02country which knows very well that it
34:05future lies in Eurasia.
34:08This new world order is taking shape
34:11today in Eurasia
34:14because Iran is fighting a war and it
34:16has won a military war against the US
34:19forces in West Asia.
34:21So this is one part about Pakistan where
34:24Pakistan is going. So Pakistan is a
34:27important player but to say that
34:29Pakistan is the leading player that is
34:32not correct because we are talking here
34:34about a collective effort. We are
34:38talking about Iran. We are talking about
34:40Turkey. We are talking about Pakistan.
34:42Pakistan with certain exceptional
34:45characteristics which I have listed out.
34:47And we are also talking about in this
34:51new world order two great powers China
34:54and Russia providing full support.
34:57So you can well imagine it is a
35:00collective effort. It is not about
35:02Pakistan.
35:04Now yeah sorry please go ahead.
35:07>> No I was the reason I see Pakistan
35:10leading this arrangement right now is
35:13because Pakistan has very close
35:15relations with Turkey and Pakistan has
35:17very close relations with Saudi Arabia
35:19but Turkey and Saudi Arabia didn't. So
35:22in a sense Pakistan's a lynch pin in
35:24this as it expands I agree with you it
35:26it doesn't become it's not the leader
35:28necessarily and and you know but this is
35:32seems to leave India in the worst
35:35possible position isolated from
35:39maybe a new Islamic security
35:41arrangement.
35:43Um it India of course tied itself
35:46foolishly to the US and Israel at the
35:48onset of the war. Um but of course we
35:52have this this uh communicate from the
35:54SEO the Shanghai cooperation
35:57organization meeting uh that just
35:59finished which condemns has all members
36:03of the SEO condemning the USIsraeli war
36:07on Iran. Uh was was India essentially
36:11cornered into doing that like it
36:13couldn't really talk itself out of it?
36:15um or and and will its tone change later
36:19this week in New Delhi when Modi hosts
36:22the BRICS leader summit?
36:25>> Now see there are three points I want to
36:27make because you've raised all these
36:29issues. Let me see the thing is that I
36:33believe whenever there is a big uh
36:35summit meeting of the size of SEO where
36:39you have 10 members you have observers
36:41you have lot of countries there the key
36:44thing is never the joint statement it is
36:47not the key thing I'll come to the joint
36:49statement also the key thing always is
36:52what are the meetings that are happening
36:54on the side
36:56they are important who's talking to whom
36:58and what are they talking and what
37:00releases are coming out from there. So
37:02one of the side meetings which I thought
37:04was extremely significance significant
37:07was a trilateral meeting where there was
37:11president Putin, president and prime
37:14minister Shabbak Sharif
37:16and it is here the press release that
37:19comes out from the Turkey side from the
37:21Turks is that as far as Udugan is
37:24concerned he said that we see a future
37:28with the Muslim world. I won't you know
37:31dwell there were other issues also but I
37:34leave it at that that you are right that
37:36Pakistan has very good ties with Turkey
37:39in fact on the 13th and 14th of July it
37:43was Aim Munir who traveled to Turkey to
37:46get the Turks on board before this
37:49Makkah joint defense agreement was
37:51signed so it was his job now coming to
37:54India but before that let's talk of this
37:57joint statement where you said India
37:59also side. First thing to remember is
38:03that India does not have normal
38:05relations with China.
38:08But India also is having the brick
38:11summit this week itself which starts
38:14from 11th to 13th of September and India
38:18certainly is very keen that President Xi
38:22Ping come for the summit
38:25and the Chinese have still not confirmed
38:28whether he is coming or not. In my
38:30assessment he's likely to come but why
38:32that's a different story but that's my
38:35assessment. The Chinese will have their
38:37own assessment of what they want to do
38:39but I expect them to come. So the
38:42signing of this agreement was for two
38:44reasons. First of all, India does not
38:48want to stand out you know like a sore
38:51thumb because has consistently
38:54maintained that we have a foreign policy
38:57which is autonomous. We have strategic
38:59autonomy and they have consistently
39:02maintained the Modi government has said
39:04that we can be in G7 quad on one hand,
39:08bricks and SEO on the other, we can be
39:11everywhere. And the second of course one
39:14was the was that making the point that
39:18look we certainly want Xi Ping to come
39:20for the brick summit because that is
39:23important for India. Now talking about
39:26India in West Asia and Eurasia.
39:29Unfortunately what has happened is that
39:32India's foreign policy still talks about
39:35the IMC
39:37which is India Middle East Europe
39:39corridor. So we are talking about this
39:42corridor that starts from India goes to
39:44UAE from UAV goes to the Hifa port of
39:49Israel and onto Europe. And this is a
39:52non-starter now given the fact that the
39:56regional framework is coming up but not
39:59to dwell on this point any further
40:01>> but also we have the advancement of the
40:03Saudi Turkish corridor which kind of
40:05makes IMC uh irrelevant and the the key
40:10thing about the Saudi Turkish corridor
40:11is it bypasses Israel altogether which
40:13was poor to the IMC. There there are
40:16many reasons why this will not work but
40:18this is a subject by itself perhaps when
40:21next time we talk we can discuss that
40:23India's foreign policy with Eurasia the
40:26point I'm making is that India does not
40:30want to annoy the Americans because
40:33India has invested a lot in America for
40:36example without even Americans asking
40:39India on the 13th of February 2025
40:43within days of the second pre presidency
40:46of Trump starting Prime Minister Modi
40:49was in Washington. A joint statement was
40:52signed where India has committed mission
40:56500. What that means is that India will
41:00take the bilateral trade which is right
41:02now around 130 I think or 139 in the
41:06next 3 years to 500 billion. So this is
41:10the commitment that India has made to
41:12America. And as far as Israel is
41:15concerned, please recall what JD van
41:19said sometimes back. He was publicly
41:22admonishing Netanyahu and said that you
41:25don't have any friends except America.
41:29And Netanyahu publicly replied by saying
41:32that no I have another small country as
41:35my friend that is India and India is a
41:37country of 1.4 4 billion people. So the
41:41point I'm making is India has chosen to
41:44be with the countries of the world order
41:48which is in decline.
41:51>> It is the order which is in decline
41:53which believes in absolute security.
41:56This is where in my assessment the
41:58Indian government has decided we want to
42:01have a foreign policy choices.
42:05Speaking of Israel, isn't Israel
42:07isolating itself from all these West
42:09Asian developments, um especially by
42:13raising its uh belligerent tone against
42:17Turkey and Qatar,
42:19um establishing military and technology
42:23deals with Greece and Cyprus, which are
42:25clearly directed at countering
42:27Turkeykey's influence in uh the Eastern
42:29Mediterranean and West Asia. This is
42:33something that is likely to drive Ankura
42:35back into the Eurasian fold. Why is
42:38Israel playing such a bad geopolitical
42:40game?
42:42>> Israel has its own objectives.
42:45It has still not given up the is greater
42:47Israel dream. So for it is it is
42:51important which is why when you look at
42:53what is the the key thing today that the
42:56Americans want the key thing that the
42:59President Trump's wants today is that
43:02state of Hermos be free like it was uh
43:06before 28th of February but this is not
43:08what Israel wants. Israel wants uh the
43:12destruction of Iran and it talks about
43:15that nuclear weapons of Iran.
43:19Now the problem is that the Israelis
43:21have enormous uh uh you know influence
43:25over the US Congress.
43:28So there is no doubt as many respected
43:31American analysts keep talking about and
43:33I agree with them that Israel is running
43:36America's foreign policy in West Asia.
43:40So Israel has enormous resources
43:43resources of the central command that
43:45it's beck and call even after Trump
43:48decides to leave West Asia which is will
43:51be which will be very sad for the
43:53prestige of a great power America
43:57America after all is still a great power
44:00but it'll take a big knock on its
44:03credibility
44:05if the central command is comes under
44:08the you know command in control of the
44:10Israeli prime minister and that is a
44:12scenario that I foresee happening.
44:16>> Um you know the US and Israel have some
44:20different interests in this region. Uh
44:23the US
44:25one would presume wants to uphold its
44:30order in at least the Persian Gulf. But
44:34the way things are going now, are
44:37countries like the UAE, Kuwait, and
44:39Bahrain going to survive this war? You
44:41know, what about Saudi Arabia, which is
44:43now facing not one but two war fronts?
44:46If the Americans halt the war now, they
44:48can cobble back their the economies of
44:51these countries and maybe their status
44:53to some degree. But if the war is
44:55prolonged, which is what it looks like
44:57the Trump administration is doing, um
45:00maybe not uh you know, maybe that's not
45:04what they want to do, but what they're
45:06doing in fact, do these countries have
45:09any future at all in the Persian Gulf.
45:12>> Well, you see, these countries think
45:14very differently.
45:16For example, UAE still believes that it
45:20need not be under the regional security
45:23framework. It signed the Abraham Accord.
45:27It has it is part of the Indian IMC. It
45:30has invested so much in Israel, so much
45:33in America. So today there are problems
45:36between Iran and UAE. In fact, recently
45:40I just read the report where Sergi
45:42Lavrov has said that the Russians would
45:45like to normalize the relations between
45:48Saudi and UAE. So you see these big
45:51powers, they are working from the they
45:54are also working
45:56from the sides. For example, the Qatari
45:59prime minister, he is right now in
46:01Beijing.
46:03He has met up with the prime minister
46:05there and he also wants to see the
46:08possibility of the two sides Iran and
46:11America come back on the MOU and start
46:14the talks.
46:16So the point I'm making is that uh this
46:20is a reality the Makkah agreement
46:24that the Iranians have won the military
46:27war the game that is a reality and the
46:31other reality is that Iranians today
46:34have a lot of military options and
46:36President Trump honestly has no military
46:39option.
46:41>> This is the reality. So we have to take
46:43on from here
46:45>> with that in as the backdrop. I mean
46:48we've just seen a quarter century SEO
46:52summit in Bishkek Kyrgystan
46:55um followed by the eastern economic
46:58forum meeting in Vladivosto which will
47:00be wrapped up by the annual bricks uh
47:04leader summit in New Delhi. three
47:06important meetings of the multipolar
47:08world. Lots of statements, lots of
47:10shuttle diplomacy, the likes of which we
47:12haven't seen in decades. As you
47:14mentioned, Qatar going to, you know,
47:15Beijing, everyone's rushing around
47:18meeting each other. Um, she Xihinping,
47:22the Chinese president went to Cairo in a
47:25big way and uh just just last week and
47:28will be in Washington later this month
47:30to meet with Trump directly. He will
47:32bypass the UN planner sessions and just
47:35go to Washington to meet Trump. This is
47:37what I want to talk about. You know, all
47:39eyes are ultimately on China, which is
47:41the world's biggest economic power and
47:43the US's biggest competition. What is
47:47sheping likely discussing with global
47:50south leaders like Cece? And what is he
47:53likely to have at the top of his agenda
47:55when he meets with Trump? I mean this is
47:56all guesswork but uh you you're paying a
47:59lot of attention to these sideline
48:01meetings.
48:02>> What's your take? Yeah, as far as
48:05President Xi is concerned from Kygystan
48:08the SEO summit he went on the state
48:11visit to Egypt
48:14and one of the key statements that came
48:16out from Egypt from President Xi was
48:19that he hoped that Egypt will look at a
48:24solution a regional solution he said no
48:28I didn't know he didn't mention Egypt by
48:30name but he said that all countries of
48:32the region
48:33They should be looking at regional
48:35solutions implying publicly that Egypt
48:39also should join the Makkah joint
48:41defense agreement. That is the key thing
48:43that came out from there. Now as far as
48:46the meeting between she and Trump is
48:49concerned on September 24th,
48:52you see they have a lot of bilateral
48:54issues to resolve because please
48:57remember that in the national security
49:00strategy of the Trump second
49:02administration that came out in 2025,
49:07what they have said is that we do not
49:09have any longer with China a security
49:12competition.
49:14Instead what we have with China is a
49:16economic competition
49:18not realizing that there also you don't
49:22have a competition with China for the
49:24simple reason that China's rise is
49:29geoeconomics
49:30and the manifestation of that rise is
49:33the belt and road initiative and today
49:36149 countries out of 193 countries in
49:39the world they are on board the belt and
49:42road initiative
49:44across all the continents
49:47including in western hemisphere.
49:49So the point here is where exactly are
49:52the Americans wanting to compete with
49:54China.
49:56So the point is there are lot of
49:58bilateral issues which the Americans
50:01have with the Chinese have and as far as
50:04the key core issue of China is
50:06concerned.
50:08uh President Trump already he was at one
50:11of the I think he was giving an
50:12interview to Fox or some channel where
50:15he said that look why should we go and
50:18fight there in Taiwan
50:21because Taiwan is close to them and for
50:23us it is thousands of kilometers away.
50:27So basically even the even the American
50:30armament that were promised to Taiwan I
50:33think it was a package of some $21
50:35billion that has been on hold. So
50:39[snorts] the core demand of the Chinese
50:41has been met by President Trump which is
50:44why President Xi will be traveling on
50:46September 24th for the summit meeting.
50:49And after that let me also tell you that
50:52there is a likelihood of a trilateral
50:55meeting. The trilateral meeting
50:58likelihood will be in the Apac summit
51:02which is to happen in November in Shing
51:04Jan in China.
51:06>> Trilateral meaning
51:08>> yeah the big
51:10>> US Russia China. Now, President Trump,
51:14President Xi and President Putin,
51:17>> they are likely to meet there after this
51:20successful bilateral which is to happen
51:23on September 24th. So, what I'm saying
51:26is that the entire world order is
51:29changing so fast that what we need to
51:32understand are the fundamental
51:34principles.
51:36What is happening? what are the
51:38fundamental principles and not look
51:40really at the tactical events because
51:43then they fit in in those big picture
51:45with the fundamental principle.
51:48>> Yeah. But you know as you said provin uh
51:50the US cannot compete with China
51:52economically. It simply can't and the US
51:55has been unable to you know strike a
51:59strike a death blow at the Russian
52:02economy. Right. And as much as the
52:04newspaper headlines talk about Iran's
52:06economy collapsing, that actually hasn't
52:08happened. Um, and Iran is finding
52:11unusual different routes, it's
52:13constantly maneuvering to find different
52:16routes. You know, Putin was talking
52:18about the SEO summit. He said Russia's
52:21trade with SEO countries exceeded $400
52:24billion in 2025
52:27and that that is continued to continuing
52:30to increase as is obviously um 98% of
52:36the trade is conducted in not in US
52:40dollars with these countries. In the
52:43same way the SEO has perhaps, and we
52:46don't know the answer to this, but the
52:48SEO has perhaps insulated Iran from what
52:52could have been catastrophic economic
52:54damage. They are, you know, um um what
52:58is it? Bound by their treaty to trade
53:01with each other, right? And these are
53:03countries that border each other to. So
53:06undoubtedly economy is growing there.
53:08But what the US can do when it cannot
53:11compete is to sabotage. And uh although
53:15we're looking at West Asia where the US
53:18is perhaps trying to sabotage the
53:20ability of China to get oil and gas from
53:24these you know its key its key
53:26suppliers. It is also impacting US
53:28allies like Japan, South Korea. Um, but
53:32you know, we're we're absorbed with West
53:34Asia, we're absorbed with Russia,
53:36Ukraine, but the Arctic is somewhere
53:39that I think is about to unfold because
53:42um the cradle has written about the
53:44Arctic route from its inception. In
53:46fact, we had Austria, former Austrian
53:48foreign minister Karen Kisel write that
53:50piece about us. Nobody was watching it
53:52and Karen's like, "Nobody's watching
53:54this." So, we said, "Let's go there."
53:56And I see uh this developing. Obviously
54:00you see Trump being belligerent towards
54:02Canada, towards Greenland. You know, he
54:05he wants to he wants to grab resources
54:09and geography on this route because it
54:11is a winning solution for the um the
54:17blocking of routes uh that the Americans
54:20are doing elsewhere, right? Is the win
54:24solution for the Russians and the
54:26Chinese right now is this Arctic route.
54:28So what do you have to say about that?
54:30>> You see, we are overstating the case of
54:33the ability of the Americans to
54:35sabotage. And why I say that is that if
54:3930% of the global trade
54:43happens in local currency, then America
54:46is in big trouble. Why? Because
54:49America's GDP is 32 trillion. America's
54:52national debt is 40 trillion. And
54:54America needs every year $1 trillion
54:57just to service the debt. It'll not be
55:00able to do that. That means the American
55:02empire falls. It
55:04>> Can I add something to that, Provin? Um
55:07the US the US dollar's proportion of glo
55:10official global FX reserves is down to
55:1357%
55:15its lowest in at least 30 years. and
55:17it's declined 20 points since 1999 with
55:21uh China and Russia uh to a lesser
55:24extent driving much of the decline. Go
55:26ahead.
55:27>> You know, you know, one of the things
55:28that uh one of the key things which will
55:31be discussed in bricks in Delhi will be
55:35increased train in local currency and
55:38how to stay away from swift. Of course
55:41for for me a key thing that I'll be
55:44watching in bricks is the possibility if
55:47President Xi comes of a meeting one
55:50onone with Prime Minister Modi but this
55:52is a different subject. So the point is
55:55that the ability of the Americans to
55:58sanction and sabotage they have
56:01basically they are losing it by the day.
56:04Let's understand that part because the
56:07dollar is getting not replaced but
56:09displaced.
56:11That is one. Now talking about the
56:13northern sea route when you look at the
56:16northern sea route uh what has happened
56:18is that in the western hemisphere the
56:22military threats there is a security
56:24threat there is a military threat to
56:26America. That means the Americans are
56:29not safe in their own backyard. And if
56:32they cannot remain a regional hegeimon
56:34in Western Europe, there is no way that
56:37they can ma make America great again.
56:40You know their dream of becoming the
56:42soul power. And what are the military
56:44threats today? The military threat is
56:47the increased capabilities
56:50in the hypersonic cruise missiles,
56:53hypersonic glide vehicles, then Forb's
56:56fractional orbital bombardment system.
56:59The long and short is please recall that
57:02entire thing uh you know in the
57:05beginning of his second term he spoke
57:07about the iron iron uh uh globe. He
57:12spoke about that. Sorry, the the golden
57:15sorry the golden dome he spoke about
57:17which is basically getting the space
57:19force because now all these radars which
57:23are there in Greenland as well as on
57:26American soil they now need to be
57:29replaced uh they need to be upgraded and
57:32the space capabilities are to be brought
57:34there. So this is the reason that the
57:37Americans were asking for $1.5 trillion
57:41for 2027.
57:44So that is one uh military
57:46vulnerability. The second military
57:48vulnerability is because of the climate
57:50change. The entire strategy that used to
57:54happen between the Soviet Union and uh
57:58America in the cold war now needs a
58:01serious review and it is being done as
58:04far as China is concerned. China
58:06>> because ice caps have melted.
58:08>> Exactly. Lot of things have happened. So
58:11basically the submarines cannot remain
58:13undetected under ice
58:17because everything can be seen. The
58:19technology has come in and the Chinese
58:21today they call themselves near near uh
58:25near Arctic power near Arctic power. You
58:29see that polar circle uh sorry the polar
58:31silk road they talk about. So they are
58:34lined with the uh with the uh with the
58:37Russians and there is no doubt going
58:40through the bearing state. This is the
58:42shortest route which connects uh Asia
58:46with Europe. You see the shortest route.
58:50>> Of course, this will take a lot of time
58:52to come about but it is moving at very
58:55fast speed. Now the other thing is that
58:58yeah sorry
58:59>> no please go ahead provin.
59:01>> The other thing is that the security
59:04challenges have increased because of the
59:07uh 32 countries which are there in Latin
59:10America. 22 have signed up the belt and
59:14road initiative
59:16and the countries like Mexico, countries
59:18like Brazil which have not signed the
59:21belt and road they have very intense
59:24economic ties with China. So the point
59:27is the Chinese are all over. Where
59:30exactly do the Americans want to compete
59:33with China? And if you look at the
59:35Chinese
59:3615th five-year plan where they are
59:40talking about new quality productive
59:42forces bringing artificial intelligence
59:45in the industries. So first be talking
59:48of what they call the China dream which
59:52is a national rejuvenation
59:54and after that step two will be through
59:57the digital silk road they will take it
59:59to the built-in road uh countries in
1:00:03what they call the community with a
1:00:05shared future.
1:00:07You know, we we talk we talk about
1:00:10collective security, new arrangements
1:00:12being created, but I also think the war
1:00:14with Iran is um uh offering
1:00:18opportunities to break all of the US
1:00:22dominated global networks from insurance
1:00:25to shipping to e even you know um AI
1:00:28data centers, right? Uh these are all
1:00:31potentially targets on Iran's escalation
1:00:34ladder if the US persists at this
1:00:37ridiculous war. But you you made a
1:00:40really important point about the US um
1:00:42fighting a 20th century war in the 21st
1:00:46century. It is it is uh outclassed
1:00:50as we have seen. Um but but so then are
1:00:55its allies because they operate under
1:00:59those same paradigms, right? Militarily
1:01:02um and that means Israel is included in
1:01:05this. Israel will be outclassed in a
1:01:09direct Iran Israel confrontation.
1:01:12But I want to ask you from where you
1:01:15sit, is a return to direct war between
1:01:17Iran and Israel inevitable? Is Iran
1:01:20waiting for the US to retreat entirely
1:01:22before that kicks off? As you know, I'm
1:01:25sitting in Beirut right now. The
1:01:26situation in southern Lebanon has become
1:01:28untenable. Israel is blowing up entire
1:01:31villages and towns every single day in
1:01:34the south. And as we know, it was Iran's
1:01:36number one demand in the failed from
1:01:39last June, a withdrawal of all Israeli
1:01:42forces from Lebanon, all regional
1:01:43states. Does this war end
1:01:46whether today or next year or three
1:01:48years down the road with an inevitable
1:01:51Iran Israel final showdown?
1:01:55>> See, first of all, let me start by
1:01:57telling you that Israel is not a
1:02:01military power.
1:02:03>> We Israel's military capabilities are
1:02:06overblown.
1:02:07Israel basically is a state which does
1:02:10terrorism.
1:02:12Isra's unique thing is Musad. That is
1:02:15what they do. Now as far as Lebanon,
1:02:19southern Lebanon is concerned, you know,
1:02:21it's a story which we can discuss
1:02:23another time. You are sitting there, you
1:02:25know, a lot. The long and short is that
1:02:28the Iranians are very clear that they
1:02:31have to also clear the security zone
1:02:33that they have captured in southern
1:02:35Lebanon. And in any case, Beirut is
1:02:37their is their red light where you are
1:02:40sitting. You see now, but coming back to
1:02:43Israel, please remember when this war
1:02:46started in just a couple of weeks, the
1:02:49Israeli chief of army, he publicly made
1:02:53the statement that the IDF is
1:02:56overstretched
1:02:59because they are everywhere. They are
1:03:01fighting a war with Iran. They are with
1:03:03southern, you know, in southern Lebanon.
1:03:06They are in Syria. They are with the
1:03:08Yemenes. So they are all over and they
1:03:11are fatigued.
1:03:13So the point I'm making is a showdown
1:03:16that you are talking about between Iran
1:03:19and Israel after the American leaves. I
1:03:23don't think it makes any sense
1:03:26because yes, of course, Israelis will
1:03:28have the capabilities of sentcom.
1:03:31There is no doubt about it because of
1:03:34their strong lobby in Washington and in
1:03:36the US Congress. But the point of the
1:03:39matter is that once the uh once the
1:03:43American forces leave and in that time
1:03:46frame even this Makkah joint agreement
1:03:49would also have further expanded and one
1:03:53of the things of the Makkah difference
1:03:55agreement is the concept of collective
1:03:58deterrence.
1:04:00>> There are two key concepts one is
1:04:02collective security the other is
1:04:04collective deterrence. So even today if
1:04:08the Israelis have to attack Turkey, if
1:04:10they have to fight with Turkey, Turkey
1:04:12has no interest in fighting with the
1:04:15Israelis. But if they fight, then they
1:04:18have to doveetail this in their war
1:04:21scheming that there are three countries.
1:04:25Now whether one will fight or how many
1:04:28will fight what sort of capabilities
1:04:30will be provided by the other two
1:04:32countries to Turkey Israelis have to
1:04:35keep that in mind and as this uh
1:04:38agreement you know more and more
1:04:40countries join Iran Iran's hand will be
1:04:44strengthened not weakened we are looking
1:04:47at a situation
1:04:49perhaps even you know by next year the
1:04:52entire situation will change
1:04:54>> and change to the detriment of Israel,
1:04:57not to the benefit of Israel.
1:05:00>> I think you make very very good points.
1:05:02I would say the only hole in that
1:05:04argument potentially is you're talking
1:05:06about uh rational thinking and we're
1:05:09seeing an Israel that is increasingly
1:05:11increasingly apocalyptic
1:05:14in in in its decisions. Uh um provin
1:05:18this was a we we covered a lot of ground
1:05:21um in this discussion. I thank you again
1:05:24province
1:05:25uh
1:05:27military expert and host of the very
1:05:30essential uh force magazine YouTube
1:05:33channel which we are going to link below
1:05:36for our viewers. Thank you again for
1:05:38joining us today and we absolutely
1:05:40insist that you join us uh in the near
1:05:43future again.
1:05:44>> Thank you so much for having me on your
1:05:46show. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.
1:05:48>> We didn't build the cradle because it
1:05:50was easy. We built it because West Asia
1:05:52needed journalism willing to challenge
1:05:54power, trace the interests shaping
1:05:56events, and expose the narratives
1:05:58powerful actors want you to believe
1:05:59about our region. We've poured
1:06:01everything into this work. Long days,
1:06:03longer nights, investigations, coverage,
1:06:06[music] podcasts, maps, and content that
1:06:08connect the dots others won't. We
1:06:10started small and we grew without
1:06:11compromising on what we publish or who
1:06:13we answer to. If The Cradle has helped
1:06:16you understand West Asia [music] and the
1:06:17world through it, help prove that reader
1:06:20power prevails. Support The Cradle with
1:06:22whatever you can