Why Saudi Arabia Wants Turkey’s Military and Pakistan’s Nuclear Shield

0:00Last week, we asked whether a new Middle

0:02East was beginning to take shape. This

0:05week, we may be seeing what that looks

0:07like. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan

0:10have signed the Mecca Pact, a new

0:13defense alliance which is being compared

0:15to NATO. Details are sketchy, but at the

0:18heart of it, three significant military

0:20powers now apparently bound by one

0:22striking promise. An attack on one is an

0:25attack on all three. And this week, the

0:27alliance formally met for the first

0:29time. So, why have they done this? Why

0:32now? And how much could the Meccaac

0:34reshape a fastchanging Middle East? I'm

0:37Tom.

0:38>> And I'm Patrick. Welcome to the General

0:40and the Journalist.

0:44>> Well, joining us this week is another

0:45general and arguably a man who's one of

0:48Britain's most knowledgeable experts on

0:49the region. And we're a tad biased. He's

0:52also an old friend of both of us.

0:54Lieutenant General Sir Simon Male. Simon

0:56is a former UK Deputy Defense Chief of

0:59Staff and the UK government's senior

1:01defense adviser for the Middle East.

1:03Since retiring, he's also become a

1:05historian in his own right, writing two

1:07powerful books, Soldier in the Sand and

1:09the House of War, and he still advises

1:11governments in the Gulf from where he's

1:14joining us today. Simon, a huge welcome.

1:16And how about that for an intro?

1:18>> Fantastic, Tom. Thank you very much. as

1:20you rightly say, three old friends

1:23getting around a microphone or two and a

1:26screen or two to chat about one of the

1:28burning issues, the uh the future of the

1:30Middle East, which of course, as your

1:32last speaker, Cabbag said, is very very

1:34dependent on how you want to view the

1:36past of the Middle East.

1:37>> Yeah, everything is somewhat inconnected

1:39as we as we learn a lot from Cabbag. So,

1:42before we dive in, I'm not going to miss

1:45this opportunity to ask you about

1:47Patrick because Patrick for for some

1:49time two different jobs, my research

1:51tells me, was your subordinate. I think

1:53he was your chief of staff when you were

1:55a brigade commander and then in a policy

1:57role in the MOD. So, what was he like as

2:00an underlying?

2:01>> I was extremely fortunate. I can say

2:03that with very Patrick's blushes to have

2:06him and an excellent man called Yan

2:08Mccle as my chief of staff and declars.

2:11Uh both of them highly talented. Both of

2:13them very much tipped for for for

2:16stardom, but I I spotted I spotted

2:19talent with with Patrick early on and I

2:21like to think I partly was a mentor and

2:24uh an enabler to get him to the the

2:27lofty ranks. And uh I do recall saying

2:31quite publicly, I've got to leave the

2:33army before I end up calling you sir,

2:35Patrick. Okay. [laughter]

2:37And I just made it out. Uh but no, we um

2:41are great professional friends and it

2:42was it was a privilege to serve

2:44together. Uh and I think we had what we

2:46uh we like to call a an excellent band

2:48of brothers in the mighty first

2:50mechanized brigade. It was a it was a

2:53huge professional privilege to be

2:54working with talented people and a great

2:57personal a great personal pleasure.

2:59>> Well, Simon, I mean, you're talking to

3:01us from the Middle East now, but you

3:02you've spent an enormous chunk of your

3:04career uh in the Middle East and you

3:06you've I've always thought that you come

3:08from you sort of epitomize that that

3:11amazing breed of of British soldier

3:14diplomats with an extraordinarily deep

3:17cultural affinity for the region. Where

3:20where does that where does that breed

3:22come from and where does it come from in

3:23you?

3:25>> I think my my academic enthusiasm

3:28Patrick as he well knows is history. Um

3:30and although I was I was actually

3:32brought up in Adam and been taken to the

3:34souk in kind of gentler times with my

3:36mother and hearing Arabic. Um and when I

3:39went to Oxford um I was um hugely uh

3:44privileged to be uh tutoed by a man

3:46called Morris Keane who was a great

3:48medievalist but in among the medieval

3:50subjects he taught was the Crusades. And

3:53I picked up an early uh an early

3:55attraction to trying to unpick um the

3:59the clash between a sort of Huntington

4:01type clash of civilizations as far back

4:04as that uh and the significance of

4:07Jerusalem and the Holy Land. Um, and

4:10when I've left Oxford, funny enough, it

4:12was 1979. And in 1979 was the um was the

4:17fall of the sha. Uh, was the great siege

4:20of the of Mecca, the grand mosque in

4:22Mecca. Uh, was the invasion of

4:25Afghanistan by the Soviet Union, which

4:28led to sort of Mjahedin support there,

4:31the jihad, and the rise of al al-Qaeda.

4:34And of course, then I served with the

4:36Sultan of Oman's army for for three

4:38years. and I learned, you know,

4:39respectable Arabic. Um, and after that,

4:43having come back thinking, well, that's

4:45that's that's that bit of glamorous

4:46soldiering done, um, I find myself as

4:49the divisional uh, chief of staff for,

4:51um, operations officer for RERT Smith,

4:55uh, in the in the Gulf War. Um and again

4:58suddenly one was confronting having

5:00having to at least understand the

5:02politics of the Gulf states of Saudi

5:05Arabia of of uh Iraq which of course had

5:08just literally just sort of come out the

5:10far end of a absolutely horrendously

5:12bruising conflict with the Iranians our

5:15our old friends. So it's very

5:17interesting my sort of career and my in

5:20you know my personal interest took me to

5:23focus very much on on on the on the

5:26Middle East. So we we're here to talk

5:27about the Mecca Pac, this this newly

5:29signed joint uh defense agreement

5:31between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and

5:34Pakistan. Incidentally, do you say

5:36Turkey or Turkey?

5:38>> I'm inclined to say Turkey, but I

5:40appreciate like a lot of things, it

5:42depends who who you're with.

5:43>> Okay. Well, we want to try and

5:45understand the implications of this of

5:47this pack for the region. Um but uh I

5:50mean let's just sort of reflect for a

5:52second on the extraordinary event that

5:54the signing ceremony represented. And

5:56Tom, you watched this. What was you know

5:58what was your impression?

6:00>> It was dramatic and it it was all of a

6:02sudden there was no full warning

6:03whatsoever. This all happened on Friday,

6:05August the 7th, Friday being an

6:06important day. uh and signing the pact

6:09uh in Mecca were the Turkish president

6:12Tai Berdigan, Saudi Arabia's crown

6:14prince and ruler Muhammad bin Salman and

6:15MBS as he's commonly known in and

6:17Pakistani's prime minister Shabbaz

6:19Sharif. It's called the Mecca joint

6:21defense agreement because they chose

6:23Mecca as we know Islam's most holiest

6:26city to sign it. That was a appointed

6:28thing. And then after the signing, the

6:30three of these these strong men then

6:32marched on down to another royal palace

6:34where they had Friday prayers together.

6:36Friday being the the holy day of the

6:37week for for Islam as well. All of it

6:39played out in front of the TV cameras.

6:40So, it was done really with with some

6:42impact and and some fanfare.

6:44>> So, lots of religious, cultural, and

6:47historical symbolism. And that that

6:49won't be lost on you, Simon. Why Why do

6:51you think they did it like that?

6:52>> It is obviously a Muslim patch. Uh it's

6:55very obviously a um a Sunni Muslim pact,

6:58although of course Mecca, Medina, Holy,

7:01Kuran, etc. All all holy to both Sunni

7:04and Shia. Um, and it's very symbolic and

7:07it's worth remembering, of course, that

7:08the Ottomans

7:10owned, as it were, controlled Mecca and

7:13Medina from 1517 when they overthrew the

7:17Mammluks outside Cairo until 19 uh 1918,

7:221917, 18 when Alen threw back the uh the

7:25Turks. So to have the head of the

7:28Turkish Republic in Mecca alongside of

7:32course now the custodian of the two holy

7:34places and then alongside obviously a

7:37Sunni Muslim leader of a very large

7:39Muslim heavily armed large Muslim

7:41country which of course as we know has

7:44already got a very strong defense and

7:47security relationship with Saudi Arabia

7:49anyway um was full of symbolism. These

7:52are three big players, Patrick. And um

7:55as I say, there was a lot of fanfare and

7:56I think as Tom mentioned right at the

7:59outset, they've they've since then in

8:01Istanbul, I think had the the defense

8:04secretaries or equivalent meeting to try

8:07and put some bones on on the headlines.

8:10>> So, let's just spend a little bit of

8:11time talking through what they see in

8:13each other and what each country brings

8:15with the table and maybe start with uh

8:17with Saudi Arabia.

8:18>> Well, Saudi Arabia has that moral

8:20authority. U Patrick and Tom um clearly

8:23custodians of the two holy places. So

8:25they have a moral legitimacy. They're

8:27the guardians of the Hajj. Be under no

8:29illusions how important that is. The

8:31Hajj of course open to Sunni and Shia.

8:34So many many Iranians even within the

8:37current geopolitics come on the Haj Umra

8:40all through all Muslims coming

8:42throughout the year outside the Haj

8:43Hajir. So they bring that they bring

8:45they bring a central they bring a

8:47centrality in terms of their leadership

8:50of you might say the Gulf other Gulf

8:52states and they bring money

8:54>> they bring huge amounts of money when it

8:56comes to investment part of that is to

8:58act as a market for buying things and

9:00part of it is to invest in other

9:01people's defense industries for instance

9:04they've done that a lot in Pakistan uh

9:06and they've clearly done a lot of it in

9:07Turkey and Turkey has a very very

9:09well-developed defense industry which

9:11Saudi Arabia does not

9:13>> and then as I say that old cry if you

9:15want to understand the problem get a

9:16bigger map obviously through Turkey you

9:18begin to link into uh uh into into NATO

9:22into into eastern eastern Europe and um

9:24as we said earlier Patrick um Pakistan

9:27has always had a very close relationship

9:29with Saudi Arabia there's always been an

9:31idea and I I can't say say it with any

9:35any any particular confidence any

9:37sources that were were Iran ever to have

9:40got a nuclear capability

9:43>> that it would proliferated and the first

9:44proliferation would have been um

9:46Pakistan giving nuclear you know nuclear

9:50warheads to for for the Saudi Arabian

9:53ballistic missiles not declared a bit

9:55like the Israelis were not declared so

9:57that that that is strengthened by this

10:00uh and then um and then Pakistan of

10:02course itself you know a huge regional

10:05player very close to China of course

10:08>> heavily supported by the United States

10:10we'll have an interesting issue with

10:12India um and um and brings a lot of

10:15manpower and you know Pakistani soldiers

10:18um serve in UN operations, they have

10:20served in Commonwealth operations um you

10:23know very very very strong military

10:25military connection. So three big big

10:28countries big players looking to

10:32position themselves I would argue in in

10:34the sort of new Middle East that Seabag

10:36was talking about. um on the one hand I

10:40would argue because of the aggression of

10:43uh Iran and on the other hand because of

10:46the increasing weakness of Iran.

10:48>> I I just want to dwell for a second on

10:51on the nuclear dimension. Um because

10:53clearly Pakistan uh is a nuclear power.

10:57>> Um

10:59as what I've been able to read into the

11:02Mecca pact, there isn't a a nuclear

11:05component to this,

11:07>> right? But do you think that there is an

11:09implicit understanding that Pakistan is

11:12providing a form of extended deterrence

11:14for the other two uh players?

11:18>> Patrick, I would imagine it's an implied

11:20implied assumption, but I I absolutely

11:23would be convinced that the Pakistanis

11:24would have been very clear that they

11:26were not extending

11:29a a nuclear umbrella over over Saudi

11:31Arabia or or Turkey. Turkey technically

11:34of course has a NATO nuc nuclear

11:36umbrella um you know through the

11:38Americans. So I think part of the

11:40nuclear dimension it is a fact of this

11:43particular pack that one of the major

11:45players has has a capability.

11:49>> So each of them brings a you know a set

11:51of assets to the table if you like but

11:54but they all have some liabilities as

11:56well. I mean what what do you think the

11:57liabilities are? People throw around,

11:59you know, it's a NATO agreement attack

12:01on one is an attack on all. It is worth

12:03pointing out that within two days, three

12:06days of the announcement of these pacts,

12:08the Houthis hit the Alazan refinery in

12:12the in the south south of south of Saudi

12:15Arabia and there wasn't much of a squeak

12:17from either the Pakistanis or the um or

12:20or or the Turks. Um so um you know

12:25turkey

12:27uh they they bring history. There is not

12:29a great history of love between the

12:31Arabs and the Turks. Saudi Arabia has it

12:34you know has issues with u an extended

12:37standoff with um uh with uh obviously

12:41Thran uh but it also has a big issue

12:44with um the Muslim Brotherhood uh

12:47supported by Turkey in some some ways.

12:49Um there's no love lost hope between

12:51Hamas and the royal family of of the

12:54house of Alsa. Um it clearly has

12:56problems with its neighbor like Iraq

12:59because of the militias there. Um it has

13:02its issues with the Houthis and the

13:04Pakistanis of course um separation.

13:08They've got their own problems, but the

13:09Beluch the Beluch um um border with Iran

13:14is is is an absolute hot spot. Um there

13:17are issues of um the relationship with

13:20China. Uh there are issues of course of

13:23the relationship with America. Now Trump

13:24has been very very positive about this

13:27because to an extent he thinks this is

13:30what should have been happening a long

13:31time ago and his predecessors were

13:34stupid to give everybody an American,

13:37you know, security guarantee. So again,

13:40I think there there's there's big things

13:42in common. None of them are joining

13:46countries. All of them as I say Sunni

13:49Muslim but it is Pakistanis, Turks and

13:52Arabs. All of them have other

13:54hinterlands which are useful but at the

13:57heart of it you could put um money clout

14:01defense industries which a bit like I

14:04suppose orcus with the Australians

14:06really runs at the heart of of how you

14:08will deepen that because you can

14:10institutionalize those sorts of those

14:12sorts of things that actually have you

14:14know pound shillings and pence on them.

14:16>> Yeah. So Simon, you sort of touched on

14:18it a little bit there, but to the

14:21question now why why have they done this

14:23and particularly why now? It's been an

14:25extraordinary tumultuous year in the

14:27Middle East. You've touched on some of

14:28the reasons. I guess there's a few

14:30reasons, but America America's visual

14:33decline as a military power, what it can

14:35do and its reliability to the region.

14:38That's got to be top of the pile, isn't

14:40it?

14:41>> Yeah. I don't think anybody is either

14:43wanting to or trying to get the

14:45Americans to withdraw from the region.

14:47In some ways, it's a forcing mechanism

14:49as Trump has done I say with Europe. The

14:53Turks remain within NATO. They want that

14:56guarantee particularly if you look who

14:58their neighbors are. Of course, um the

15:00Gulf States are certainly not stepping

15:02away from the Americans, but they are

15:04aware that they've been challenged to

15:06build up proper defense capabilities.

15:09There are big um reorganizations and

15:11transformations of most of the Gulf uh

15:14countries anyway. They're moving from

15:17rather sort of old old-fashioned armed

15:19forces into something that would be much

15:21more recognizable to benchmark

15:24countries. Um you know, available for

15:27combined joint operations for joint

15:29operations. But I think I don't think

15:31you'll find any enthusiasm for the

15:33Americans declaring we're leaving. And

15:35the reality is the Americans have got

15:36huge investments here. They're not

15:38energy dependent on the Middle East any

15:40longer. But this is where the money is.

15:42America's 40 trillion in debt. If you're

15:44looking for pots of money, trillions,

15:47and your whatever AI thing, you you're

15:50still coming to the Gulf to to Qatar to

15:53UAE.

15:54>> So I think the Americans will remain in

15:56nobody's asking them to leave except the

15:58except the Iranians. And that's

16:00precisely why however much they're

16:03developing their own military

16:05capabilities, defense security

16:06capabilities, we still want the

16:08Americans there. But the balance is

16:09changing.

16:10>> Yeah. But it it it really is. And

16:12America may well not just leave the

16:14region altogether. That's unthinkable.

16:16It may well close a few bases. It

16:18doesn't think it can defend anymore. And

16:20also, it's proved unreliable partner. It

16:22simply cannot defend its Gulf allies

16:25from the trouble it's causing in Iran

16:26and and the limits of US hard power. I

16:28mean that's the biggest test of the Iran

16:30war for me how it's exposed the limits

16:32of of US hard power and of course

16:34juxtaposed against that is is the rise

16:36of of sheer militantism largely through

16:39Iran's proxies whether it's the the

16:41Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah and how

16:44much do you think that the the Mecca

16:46pact is a reaction to that this sort of

16:48a load of Sunnis getting together to say

16:50well look the Americans can't short out

16:52this sort of militant sheism we might

16:54have to do it ourselves. No, I would I I

16:56would I would challenge that reading of

16:58the situation, Tom. Um I think what's

17:00happened is they're coming together at

17:02precisely the time when militant cheers

17:04is absolutely on the back foot. Um and

17:07actually the limits of American power

17:10have been seen in terms of the strategic

17:13options they've used. I think they've

17:15used it badly. I remain

17:17marginally very confident that the

17:19Iranian government is going to buckle

17:22soon. Um and therefore you have actually

17:25removing Iran at the moment as a direct

17:28a direct threat. It can it can hurl out

17:31it can hurl out um it can hurl out the

17:33odd ballistic missile. It can hurl out

17:35the odd odd drone. These these capture

17:36the headlines. Uh a lot of the reporting

17:39of the region is done through the prison

17:41of anti-Americanism, anti-Israeli,

17:43anti-Trump. Um Hamas is

17:48absolutely for good on the back on the

17:50back foot. Hezbollah is on the back foot

17:52and the Houthis are on the back foot.

17:53It's very interesting how they haven't

17:54lined up. The capacity of Iran to um

17:58actually sponsor these people has been

18:00severely damaged and the more it tries

18:03to sponsor them, the more it feeds a

18:05narrative within Iran that why why are

18:10we buckling under economic pressure when

18:12our leadership is handing out our money

18:15to actually mostly Arab Arab Arab

18:19militias. um their capacity still to

18:23cause trouble in Iraq is there. So these

18:25militias are very much on the back foot.

18:27They cannot be supported any longer by

18:29Iran and Iran itself is on the back

18:32foot.

18:33>> Look, I can't disagree with any of that.

18:34But it does then beg the question, who

18:35is the common enemy? And another

18:37potential scenario could be or an

18:39explanation is that this these three

18:42didn't particularly like the Abraham

18:43Accords which was obviously the great

18:45agreement that Trump brokered in in his

18:47first term uh for various Gulf nations

18:50led by the UA to to recognize Israel for

18:52for the first time. Is this in any way a

18:55reaction against Abraham Accords again a

18:58Sunni bullw walk or an alternative power

19:01structure to that?

19:02>> I don't really I don't see it that way

19:04again Tom. Um, the Abraham Accords have

19:07been proved to be remarkably resilient,

19:09funnily enough. Um, you know, you might

19:12might argue despite what's happened in

19:14Gaza, the occupied West Bank, um, I was

19:18hearing Patrick um, you know, make some

19:20very valid points last last week. Um,

19:23and the attacks on Hezbollah. But again,

19:26the Palestinian cause is not one that's

19:28necessarily taken up by everybody. is an

19:30assumption that all Sunni Muslims are on

19:33the side of the Palestinians. There's

19:35also a feeling that the Palestinians

19:37have missed every opportunity in the

19:39last however long to to to come to a

19:42deal. Um there's a very strong link as

19:44you know between UAE and Israel uh and

19:48interesting now of course Israel and and

19:50Greece. So there there are camps forming

19:53and of course again one of many people

19:55on the 7th of October taking it back

19:57nearly 3 years now. Um the atrocities

20:00around Gaza. Um people did look on as

20:03potentially trying to unsettle the idea

20:06that the Saudi Arabians might have

20:08joined the um might have joined the Abra

20:11Abraham Accords. But I see the capacity

20:14of America to continue to guarantee to

20:17keep the the original signatures that

20:19Abraham are called within within the

20:22within the um the within the fold and

20:26still with the opportunity to expand it.

20:28So I think again one's got to be very

20:30careful about the clever way that the

20:33Muslim Brotherhood have used a sympathy

20:36a very justifiable understandable

20:37sympathy for the Palestinian cause in a

20:40manner that does not necessarily reflect

20:43um the leadership in many parts of the

20:45Sunni world in terms of in terms of how

20:48they view political Islam particularly

20:50among the monarchies.

20:53But but Simon, I just want to sort of

20:55draw you out on that because one of the

20:58we were talking about liabilities. One

21:01of the potential

21:03um cancers at the heart of this alliance

21:06is surely Turkeykey's support for

21:08political Islam because you've got this

21:10you know very very strong uh

21:13philosophical disagreement between on

21:15the one hand Turkey and and their fellow

21:18travelers when it comes to supporting

21:19political Islam Qatar and and Saudi who

21:22who see this you know see this as a as a

21:26as a direct threat to the stability of

21:29of the monarchies in in in the Gulf. How

21:32how do they overcome that tension?

21:36>> It's a very good question, Patrick,

21:38because um you're absolutely right. The

21:42people like Muhammad bin Salman,

21:44Muhammad bin Zad, you know, are very

21:46very publicly worn against the dangers

21:49of political Islam. They're very scarred

21:51by it. And they know that up, you know,

21:54behind all the language that's today

21:57seductive among members of the Muslim

21:59Brotherhood and Western societies lies,

22:02you know, an aspiration to overthrow

22:04overthrow the monarchies. Um, and I I

22:08mentioned almost as an aside the other

22:10day, we sorry the other moment when we

22:12talked about Egypt, the dog that didn't

22:13bark,

22:15>> the largest Arab country, although they

22:17they distinguish themselves really as

22:19Egyptians first, Arabs second. You know,

22:22nearly 120 million. Again, you know, you

22:27remember the um the um the Arab Spring

22:31when there was an election of a Muslim

22:33Brotherhood. Morsey was elected as a

22:35Muslim Brotherhood candidate and then

22:37Cece and the military overthrew him. So

22:40there's that that standoff between um

22:43Saudi Arabia, Egypt and you might say

22:46Turkey on that side. But that again you

22:48slightly feel is unlike NATO to go back

22:51to the Mega Pact which was very firmly

22:54aligned with philosophies, political

22:56philosophies

22:57and general organizing principles that

23:00utterly aligned with some quite serious

23:02fault lines uh in with within what you

23:06just might say Islam. You know much more

23:08complex than that. And of course then

23:10you've got you know we watched it in

23:11Syria who was supporting who. I think

23:13you Patrick probably very much in your

23:15time as well trying to trying to unwrap

23:18who these people we all cheering them on

23:21to overthrow um Bashar al-Assad and then

23:25people began to say woo hang about these

23:27Jabad al-Nusra chaps i.e

23:29the current leader in Syria. Um, you

23:32know, a much more dangerous to us or our

23:35health actually than Bash Assad and

23:37trying to separate those out. And we saw

23:39it in Libya of course. Yeah.

23:41>> Where again Egypt, Saudi Arabia

23:43supporting certain Islamic groups

23:46against Gaddafi,

23:47>> lo and behold, Turkey, Qatar supporting

23:50others. So these these are important

23:51fault lines. You're absolutely right to

23:53draw them out because an understanding

23:55of both the strength of the Mecca

23:58defense pact and its potential not

24:00weakness but its its its limitations

24:03>> are driven by actually externally uh

24:06among themselves not not simply uh the

24:09um Iraq but if you remove Iran

24:12>> and this comes back to where I do think

24:14you know my optimism comes from Iran has

24:17Iran has used the Arab world and the

24:19volatility within the Arab world

24:21including of force Gaza, Israel,

24:24occupied territories, West Bank, etc. as

24:26its strategic depth. It is an ab it has

24:29been an absolute parasite.

24:32Very clever to keep Iraq weak, to keep

24:35Syria weak, to keep, you know, to spin

24:38up um Hamas, Hezbollah in order to

24:42provoke Israeli retaliation, in order to

24:45undermine the American position, etc.

24:47the capacity to to to constrain Iran to

24:51be a serious important civilizational

24:55regional power minus its revolutionary

24:58aspect and minus its championship. I

25:02don't say you don't have the sympathy.

25:03It's championship of sheer minorities

25:07to the to to the detriment of of the

25:10host nation. It's a parasite in the

25:12region that supports parasites within

25:15states. The Mecca pact is one of those

25:17things that make me think people are

25:20positioning for a Middle East in which

25:23Iran is constrained to act as a normal

25:26power with all its strengths,

25:28weaknesses, you know, has its interests

25:31but without

25:33necessarily at the top level sheer the

25:35Shia championship and the revolutionary

25:37aspect and that remains to be seen. So,

25:40Simon, um, lots of commentary has has,

25:45you know, inevitably drawn a parallel

25:47with NATO. Um, and you were you were

25:50mentioning it, you alluded to yourself

25:52just just a few seconds ago. And the

25:54language is striking strikingly sim

25:57similar. I mean, they've almost taken

25:58article 5 verbatim, an attack on one, as

26:01an attack on all. H how I mean I know

26:03this is very early days but are people

26:06right to try to make comparisons to NATO

26:08and and what similarities do you see?

26:13>> I mean undoubtedly what like like NATO

26:16which has a huge bureaucracy actually

26:19you know military civilian bureaucracy

26:21political bureaucracy etc. It'll be

26:24interesting to see if that if that

26:25grows. At the moment, you've had some

26:27headlines. U you've had defense

26:30ministers meeting uh no doubt

26:33accompanied by the chief of staff. You

26:35know, they'll know each other anyway

26:37through various um through various fora.

26:41Um they will undoubtedly build some sort

26:44of headquarters. I think interestingly

26:47when do you invoke article 5 in NATO?

26:50You know we are reaching the gray area

26:51at the moment and again you'll have

26:53talked about this you know these hybrid

26:55attacks what constitutes an attack is it

26:58cyber is it attack on critical

27:01infrastructure but what I would see a

27:04lot of I would expect is article 4

27:07that I would see the the the requirement

27:10to discuss

27:12>> and as I say the reality is very early

27:15days they don't have the structures I've

27:16got no idea assigned forces I've got no

27:20idea of you know there's a military

27:21political headquarters All in NATO but

27:24what I would see is three very very

27:26capable military powers who are going to

27:29get more capable um and um with a

27:34capacity to go for uh a certain amount

27:37of standardization

27:39a certain amount of you know common SOPs

27:42a certain amount of common doctrine a

27:44certain amount of scenarios a certain

27:46amount of acquisition Patrick I could

27:48really really see and that's where I

27:51could see the countries spread betting a

27:55bit. Why I would argue very strongly you

27:57will not see the Americans pull out of

27:59here is because how would you fill the

28:01security vacuum and the danger would be

28:03China. China is contesting America for

28:09primacy in the South China Sea. It is

28:12absolutely not contesting America for

28:14anything but influence in the Middle

28:16East. It's sea lines of communication

28:19from the straight of all moose or

28:21actually even coming around are still

28:23horribly vulnerable to American maritime

28:26power. So they're not challenging it.

28:27But equally

28:29the Gulf states with their money

28:31particularly are looking for markets and

28:34they're looking for places to invest and

28:36China is offering that. So again they

28:39will spread bet and I think this is what

28:41is happening in a number of areas. A

28:43number of places around the world have

28:45been rattled. So I think you are seeing

28:47spread betting. I don't see you know I

28:49don't the idea that Turkey might break

28:51away from NATO because they'd rather be

28:53this not a chance to the idea that um as

28:56we discussed earlier that Pakistan would

28:58extend the nuclear umbrella probably no

29:00chance. The idea that anybody would

29:02really come to Saudi Arabia's direct

29:05assistance if there were more attacks by

29:06the Houthis probably unlikely. It's

29:10worth noting that Saudi Arabia has

29:11collected a a a maritime task force for

29:14the Red Sea. So there there are there

29:16are any number of these events, but you

29:19know Tom is quite right to have pointed

29:21out the significance of the publicity of

29:26of setting this in place was was

29:28remarkable.

29:29>> Patrick, I'm keen on your take on this

29:31as well really because we had this

29:32meeting mate the NATO ripoff continues

29:35because the Mechipac they they've now

29:37got their own permanent secretariat

29:39that's in Riyad as NATO has theirs in

29:41shape in in Belgium. They've also

29:43established their first secretary

29:44general and they've given him that name.

29:46NATO's got one and the same. He's a

29:47Pakistani official.

29:49>> What do you think? If this isn't a NATO

29:50now, could it soon become one?

29:53>> I I think it's too soon to tell. And and

29:55actually, I think the NATO comparisons

29:57are probably wrong. My problems with the

29:58comparisons with NATO are first of all,

30:02NATO benefits from having an absolutely

30:05clear consensus on what the threat is. I

30:07mean, there's always some debate between

30:08the the south and the north, but broadly

30:10speaking, NATO recognizes that the

30:12threat to the North Atlantic area comes

30:14from Russia. And there's a quote from

30:16Glenn Snyder that says, "Alliances have

30:19no meaning apart from the adversary

30:21threat to which they are a response."

30:22So, if if these three countries can't

30:24agree on the threat or the adversary,

30:28then it's hard to see it being a really

30:29substantive alliance. I think the other

30:32the other question mark that we should

30:35pose at this point is you know how how

30:38much do we believe in their willingness

30:40to bear costs for one another? I mean

30:43it's it's totally untested clearly at

30:44this stage but but it's also unknowable.

30:47Um and we can talk about some scenarios

30:49where that might happen.

30:51There's also this notion that that you

30:54know NATO relies on not just on

30:57countries fulfilling article three their

31:00ability to defend themselves having

31:01resilience but also to come to the aid

31:04of other countries and that requires an

31:06expeditionary culture. Now the Turks

31:08clearly have got expeditionary

31:10capabilities and the Pakistanis have to

31:13an extent but but if you know I mean

31:15I've spent a lot of time in Pakistan

31:18Pakistan are very very clear on where

31:20they see the threat coming from. So

31:22their ability to to release forces for

31:25some sort of major threat outside of the

31:28domestic you know theater is probably

31:30going to be quite limited. Arguably the

31:33most contested space in the Gulf is the

31:35straight of Hormuz. you know, this the

31:37choke point is that the ability to to

31:40secure maritime freedom of navigation in

31:44that region requires you to have

31:46expeditionary bluewater navies and none

31:49of these countries really have to any

31:51great extent. But I I I it doesn't feel

31:53to me at this stage like NATO is is is a

31:56fair comparison.

31:57>> Patrick is absolutely right. This to my

31:59mind is not preparation for a threat.

32:03It's preparation for a new balance of

32:06power in the region. Might not be a

32:09happy balance of power. The straits of

32:12moose will open. It's just a fact of

32:14life. Now the Iranian regime will

32:17transform. It's transforming already.

32:19It's amazing how most of the most of the

32:22um the imagery the regime is using a bit

32:25like the Soviets in the Second World War

32:27is nationalist. It's no longer

32:29revolutionary. Now, it can fall in a

32:32number of ways. It can transform and

32:33become authoritarian military or it can

32:36collapse. And to my mind, this is the

32:39Pakistanis, the Turks, and the Arabs

32:42getting ready for a new balance of power

32:44in the Middle East.

32:45>> Simon, that's fascinating. It's not the

32:48wars of today that they're worried

32:49about. It's the wars of tomorrow or or

32:5110 20 years time. If we look at how it

32:53actually works militarily, this alliance

32:55could actually come into effect in in

32:57practice. I mean, we could play the

32:58whole top Trump thing, couldn't we? you

33:00know, Pakistan has another fight with

33:02India. You can't really see Turkey or

33:05the Saudis getting involved in that or

33:07Turkey goes to war with Israel or maybe

33:09Greece. The others aren't going to pile

33:11in. Saudis versus Iran Houthies. We we

33:15touched upon that, you know, possibly.

33:16But if none of these sort of current

33:18wars work, this is alliance for the

33:20future. What scenario could you see a

33:24military alliance coming together on the

33:25ground in practice and and fighting

33:27alongside each other? What would that

33:29look like and why?

33:30>> Well, again, it'll be interesting to see

33:33just how deep it goes, whether you've

33:34just got three countries that are, you

33:36know, they've all got to move quite a

33:38way to get to each other's country. You

33:40know, in terms of land forces, as

33:42Patrick alluded to quite rightly,

33:43there's there's not much maritime power

33:46there. You can do something in the in

33:47the Red Sea. You could do something in

33:49the in the Gulf. You could do something

33:51in the Indian Ocean, I suppose. Um but

33:53it's difficult to work out what air

33:55power anti- anti-missile defense perhaps

33:58that would be an interesting one. An

33:59integrated air defense system um that I

34:02could see them going. Um I think it goes

34:05back I think some of it goes back to

34:06defense industries. I think some of it

34:09goes back to uh generally you know this

34:11is part of diversification under vision

34:132030. Uh Pakistan has all sorts of uh

34:18social issues to do with a stretched

34:20economy. Turkey could do with export

34:23markets. I think so I think there are

34:25there are there are a number of layers.

34:27Hence, as I say, the you know, the one

34:29thing that's missing is is is an

34:31identifiable

34:33clear and present danger, frankly, to

34:35any of these countries individually.

34:37>> Yeah.

34:38>> It's it's very obvious why they might

34:39want to at a macro level. I think there

34:41are reasons to be cheerful about it

34:43because I think it's the right way they

34:44would go. I think to read it as a

34:46response to a growing threat other than

34:50we ought to get together. There's much

34:52more we could do. There are many

34:53synergies. We've allowed history to get

34:55in our way. And I do think it is because

34:58I think they they they pick up the they

35:00pick up the the the drum beat quicker

35:03than we necessarily do that somewhere

35:05along the line whatever comes out of

35:07this current confrontation between the

35:09US, Iran, Israel, whatever will be a

35:12much weaker Iran. which means that is of

35:15that is of huge importance for Syria,

35:18for um for Iraq, certainly uh for for

35:22Yemen. So you watch this because we're

35:25used to headlines that say, "Oh, we need

35:27to see what's happening tomorrow." These

35:29guys are used to playing the long game.

35:31They've been in the region. Turks,

35:33Arabs, Egyptians, and and Iranians have

35:37been fighting each other ethnically,

35:39geopolitically, religiously for

35:42millennia, certainly centuries, should I

35:45say, since the prophet's death.

35:46>> Yeah. Well, let's go into the future a

35:48bit further, Jimmy, 5, 10, maybe 20

35:50years in advance. And I love your spread

35:53betting analogy. It's hugely useful to

35:55journalists, people like me, to to

35:57explain very complicated geostrategic

36:00setups in in things like betting

36:01scenarios. I I I get that. But let's get

36:04to one end of that that spread bet and

36:06you could see this thing really coming

36:08together. You could see it develop real

36:10muscle. Then you have a very powerful

36:12Sunni military alliance with a

36:14headquarters with with cores to deploy

36:17with ships and aircraft. And then you

36:19could see a scenario where it decides to

36:21start throwing its weight around the

36:22region with as you say a much belittled

36:24Iran. So you could see no longer a

36:27defensive alliance but offensive

36:28alliance, a bit of African colonialism,

36:31a bit of Middle Eastern colonialism. How

36:32how possible is that? How could it

36:34change the region in the future? Well,

36:37one end of the scale.

36:37>> Well, what is interesting is is the link

36:39country between um Saudi Arabia and

36:43Turkey, funny enough, is Syria at the

36:45moment. and the Israelis have made it

36:48very clear that they do not wish to have

36:51neoottoman Turkish um interference

36:55there. So this is the interesting thing

36:57because who else could join this and I

37:00know there's been speculation again the

37:02dog that didn't bark which way would the

37:05Saudis reach out to Egypt in a way that

37:08perhaps the Turks would be reluctant to

37:10would the Pakistanis reach out to Egypt?

37:12Could Syria be drawn into be drawn into

37:15this? You know, which is I think could

37:17any of the other dare I say North

37:19African states, Tunisia, there was

37:21always there was always a sort of idea

37:22that Morocco might join. It is in the

37:25Abraham Accords. At one stage they were

37:27trying to open up Jordan. Um you will

37:31then get into the complication of course

37:32of the state of Israel.

37:35H and at the moment of course people are

37:37worried about you know they were worried

37:39about Iran. I'm interested. I think Iran

37:41is the is the big prize to take that off

37:43the table as a as a revolutionary force.

37:46But the other worry of course out here

37:48is the is the dominance of Israel and of

37:51course what you are arguing there cause

37:53deployable cause in begin if you're in

37:57Tel Aviv Jerusalem to look that begins

38:00to look quite threatening and of course

38:02then you begin to queue in other other

38:06parts of of various blocks. So I think I

38:09think would it want to use it to

38:13destabilize the Middle East further or

38:15does it want it to stabilize the Middle

38:17East? And I think that would be an

38:19interesting question to ask. Does it

38:21want to preserve a status quo, be ready

38:24for a change of regime in Iran in order

38:27to draw them in, expand it because

38:30they've got other things in common?

38:31Perhaps you're absolutely right. Look at

38:33the Sahil at the moment. Who's been

38:35operating there? Iran, the Russian

38:38Africa corps, Hezbollah,

38:41coulds force, etc. You know, are there

38:43areas where where where they would have

38:45it? And that I think is perfectly

38:47feasible. I think that would be

38:49perfectly feasible.

38:49>> What should we think about this?

38:52Essentially, is this an alliance, a

38:54pact, a new development that we should

38:56fear or should we should welcome?

38:59>> No, I think we should give it absolutely

39:00the benefit of the doubt. I think as

39:03Patrick said, you should be very we

39:05should be very careful as military men

39:07to look at how much is below the

39:11surface. You know, we can all have

39:12headquarters and carefully choreographed

39:15exercises and fire, you know, firepower

39:18demonstrations. uh let's see how it can

39:21use the security muscle and there's a

39:25lot of muscle under that grouping

39:28to for for what I would call stability

39:31in in the Middle East. Let's see if that

39:33secretariat and I'm sure it will will

39:35make its way to Brussels very soon. Um I

39:40suspect today so we should up to a point

39:42welcome it. It's exactly what we're

39:44doing burden sharing. Um, I think for we

39:47British, and Patrick will know I've been

39:49a broken record on this for many years,

39:51should be leaning into the into the

39:53region. We have great influence here. We

39:57can still leverage our expertise. We're

39:59looked on as as good good brokers.

40:02Little same across the across the Gulf,

40:04but in Gulf countries. So, at a macro

40:08level, the West NATO lean in. It's part

40:13of I think bolstering. we had something

40:15like this under center in the 1950s and

40:17certainly from a national level. Let's

40:19always lean into the Gulf. There's a

40:21huge amount of residual affection for us

40:23here. I remember talking to a very a

40:26very close friend of one of the rulers

40:27out here. And I said, "We must really

40:29disappoint you." He said, "Yes, you

40:31always disappoint us, Simon, but the

40:33trouble is we're doomed to like you."

40:36And I said, "Well, that's that's a

40:38slightly backhanded compliment, but

40:40we'll take anything we can get at the

40:41moment." Well, on that note of of

40:43blessed optimism, we don't always end in

40:45an optimistic way, but we should wrap it

40:48then and there. Simon, thank you so much

40:49for your time. You've been absolutely

40:51wonderful.

40:52>> Thank you, Tom. Thank you, Patrick.

40:54Great to see you both.

40:55>> Likewise. And thank you so much, Simon.

40:57I always enjoy being schooled by you.

40:58Well, that's all from us this week.

41:01Thank you for listening. And please do

41:03send in any of your questions to general

41:05and journalist times.co.uk UK and do

41:09follow us, give us a rating or review us

41:11or leave us a comment wherever you're

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41:14often says, we're a bit needy, but it

41:16also helps more people discover us. So

41:19until next week, thank you, Patrick.

41:21Thanks, John. [snorts]