Full transcript
0:00In this Saturday morning college
0:02football betting show, I'm going to give
0:04you three of my best plays for today's
0:07college football slate. Consider
0:10becoming a member of my channel as
0:13members get free plays throughout the
0:15week. I've already given one membersonly
0:17free play in college football. I've
0:19given one membersonly free play in NFL
0:22this week. And I've also given NFL
0:25player projections for every game, every
0:28player for week three. You can get every
0:31week, every player if you become a
0:32member for just $9.99 a month.
0:36Members, if you're in the chat, let
0:38people know the membership is good
0:40value.
0:42I am a professional handicapper at
0:44wageralk.com.
0:47I am in fact the number one handicapper
0:50at wagertalk.com among 33 of them for
0:54three of the last six years and
0:56currently in 2026
0:59I am number two. I'm plus 111 units
1:03which means I have doubled the bankroll.
1:05I've doubled the bankroll three of the
1:07last six years. Pretty good capper to
1:10back. So consider backing me. Consider
1:14becoming a member on wager talk. put my
1:16baseball plays up, but I only put my
1:18college football, NFL, NHL, and college
1:21basketball picks right here on this
1:23YouTube channel. Today, I'm going to
1:25give you three of my best bets in
1:27college football. Go back and check my
1:29public open to the public free play
1:32video in the Northwestern Indiana game
1:36that's going to take place as well
1:38today. So, go check that out as well.
1:41But as for today, the first game I'm
1:43going to focus on is going to be South
1:47Florida and Bowling Green. Let me get
1:50rid of this media.
1:53And it I think you all know where to
1:54find me. I'm at Tokyo Underbar Brandon.
1:57And as you can see up in that corner, I
1:59stream live on X Kick and YouTube. Thank
2:03you guys in the chat. For some reason, I
2:04can't pull the comments up, so I
2:06apologize. I'm having technical
2:08problems. I'm reading the comments and I
2:10am in the comments section right now.
2:12So, uh I will uh mix with you. I will uh
2:16socialize with you in the chat, but I
2:18can't pull them up for some odd reason.
2:20So, I apologize for that. Let me get rid
2:22of these banners. Uh follow me on X at
2:25Tokyo Underbar Brandon as well as I do
2:27give out free plays there as well. And I
2:31do live shows Friday night. I do Asian
2:34baseball. Saturday mornings right now I
2:36do college football. Sunday morning.
2:38Tomorrow I'm going to do an NFL live
2:40show. So, join me for all of those. And
2:44also, Sunday morning, I do an MLB live
2:46show, but tomorrow will be my last one
2:48of the season. Let's get into USF and
2:51Bowling Green. I actually have two plays
2:53in this game that I like that I see
2:56value on. The first one is going to be
2:59South Florida minus 17. I'm going to buy
3:04the half point off of this and go South
3:06Florida minus 17. Um, my model in this
3:10game, I have South Florida at minus 24.
3:14So, taking minus 17 is roughly seven
3:17points of cushion versus the projected
3:19fair spread.
3:21At minus 17 instead of 17, you're
3:24getting uh somewhat meaningful 17 point
3:27margin. Uh it allows you to avoid uh a
3:31late back door touchdown if you're up by
3:3421 uh or I'm sorry if you're up by 24.
3:38Uh and it avoids a late minute field
3:40goal as well uh to avoid your spread
3:44getting crushed. Um I'm projecting this
3:47game to be 38-4
3:50in favor of South Florida. That's a 24
3:52point margin. USF doesn't need to
3:55outperform the model dramatically to
3:56cover the 17. Uh I'm estimating this
3:59about a 68% cover probability.
4:03Fair odds at minus 214. So you can get
4:05minus 17 straight at about minus 145 at
4:10the moment. I think that's pretty good
4:12value. Uh USF's rushing explosive
4:15component is a major matchup advantage
4:17here. The model specifically notes that
4:18USF does not need a highly efficient or
4:22unusually explosive passing performance
4:24here. Bowling Green grades really poorly
4:28in the models open adjusted team
4:29ratings. Bowling Green I've got them
4:32about 8 to nine range offensively out of
4:35on a scale of 10 and I've got them eight
4:37to nine defensively on a scale of 10. So
4:40Bowling Green is just a very poor team.
4:43That matters for a big favorite because
4:45we're not relying on one fragile edge.
4:48We're relying on USF to create
4:50separation both offensively and
4:52defensively. And I think they can. Um
4:56the score distribution I have Bowling
4:57Green scoring only 14 points. Uh a big
5:01favorite laying 17 is much easier to
5:03cover if the opponent is not projected
5:05to get into the 20s. And I believe
5:08that's what we have in this game. So,
5:09the first play for this college football
5:12video is going to be South Florida minus
5:1617. Again, my projection is South
5:19Florida 38
5:22and Bowling Green 14. Let me see the
5:26comments. Yeah, sorry I can't pull the
5:28comments up, you guys. I apologize for
5:29that. Let me remind you, uh, I I am in
5:32the chat. I'm going to converse with you
5:33guys in the chat. Um, uh, let me remind
5:36you that becoming a member is only $9.99
5:39a month. And if any of my members are in
5:41the chat, let the people know that
5:43you're getting value. I'm going to give
5:44out at least two free plays per week.
5:47And I'm going to give out NFL
5:48projections for every player, every
5:50game, every week. As a matter of fact,
5:52my NFL week three projections are
5:54already out for members only. I do have
5:58a video that's open to the public and
6:00that is in the Northwestern uh Indiana
6:03game uh for today. So, go watch that
6:06video and see where I'm betting that. I
6:08also have an NFL free play game uh video
6:12up right now. So, go to my wager or I'm
6:14sorry, go to my YouTube channel and see
6:17those free play videos to see where I'm
6:20betting in the NFL. I will be doing an
6:22NFL show tomorrow morning, Sunday
6:24morning, and I will also be doing an MLB
6:26show tomorrow morning, both live. So,
6:29catch me there. The next game we're
6:32going to is
6:36same game, USF [laughter]
6:38Bowling Green. Uh, this one I'm going to
6:41go with a team total. Uh, right now I'm
6:43looking at South Florida. Team total 33
6:46and a half. And to me, that looks really
6:48low. Um, I'm projecting USF to score 38
6:51points in this game. So, we have a 4.3
6:54point cushion
6:56uh in this projection. This is not as
6:59strong as the minus7, but it's still a
7:01strong play. I'm asking USF to reach 34
7:04points. My projection is 38. Uh, same
7:07matchup produces strong USF minus 117.
7:10Edge also supports the team total.
7:13Bowling Green rates very poorly. As I
7:16previously stated, they rate nine or 10
7:18in both offense and total defense. Uh
7:21their rush defense, uh they rank nine
7:24and their pass defense, I rank them
7:26eight. Uh South Florida's rushing game
7:29is particularly attractive for this team
7:31total. It's helpful for a team total
7:33over because rushing efficiency will
7:36remain unstable even when a favorite
7:38gets ahead. They're going to rush the
7:40ball a lot. It becomes less aggressive
7:42through the air. So, you need a team
7:43with a good running game to get a team
7:46total over.
7:48Our over does not die here if USF builds
7:51a big lead. That's why I like it. And I
7:53like their running game. I like Bowling
7:55Green's porous uh rush defense. And the
7:59team total is a cleaner way to express
8:01USF offensive mismatch. If you're
8:04worried that Bowling Green could score a
8:06late touchdown and threaten the minus7,
8:10uh USF's team total, uh you don't have
8:12to worry about the other team
8:13backdooring you and killing you at the
8:15end. Uh compared with the full game
8:18over, uh USF team total isolates the
8:20part of the matchup that I like the most
8:22and my model likes the most. Uh you
8:24don't need Bowling Green to contribute
8:2617 to 20 points to cash this. We just
8:29need USF to start rolling, build a lead,
8:31and crush that Bowling Green defense,
8:34which I think they will. To recap, my
8:37second best play for this video is going
8:40to be USF team total over 33 and a half.
8:45I'm projecting them to score 38 in this
8:48one.
8:49So, those are my first two plays. I like
8:52USF minus 17 and I like them over 33
8:56and a half. And if you noticed my
8:58thumbnail uh for this video, then you
9:01also noticed that the game, my third
9:03game that I'm going to give out for this
9:06video is going to be Texas A&M LSU. Yes,
9:10we cashed this last week. As a matter of
9:12fact, my college football totals are 10
9:16wins and two losses currently. And we
9:18are going to a total in this one as
9:20well.
9:22I like the under 52 in this game. And I
9:25will tell you exactly why. Uh LSU has a
9:29great defense as we saw by last week's
9:32game. And uh we we also won that game as
9:37well. Uh the under in that game was also
9:39uh that one was 59 a half, but we also
9:42won the under there. Let's break this
9:44one down. The model for me projects only
9:4748 points in this game. Actually 47.5.
9:51I'm projecting a score of LSU 26. Texas
9:54A&M 22. So we have a full fivepoint
9:57cushion under the 52 and a half. This is
10:01the largest total discrepancy on the
10:04board besides another video that I gave
10:06out to my members only and the free play
10:09video that I made in Northwestern
10:11Indiana. This is number three actually.
10:13Um my model is estimating roughly a 63%
10:16chance for this to go under. So fair
10:19odds for the under 52 1/2 would be minus
10:22171. We can get it for about minus 110.
10:25I think that's excellent value. LSU's
10:28rush defense is the centerpiece for the
10:30under here. The source notes that LSU
10:34has been statistically among the
10:35nation's strongest rush defenses in the
10:38country. They're allowing roughly 33
10:41rushing yards per game entering this
10:43matchup.
10:45If Texas A&M cannot establish uh early
10:48down rushing, it will be very hard for
10:50them to sustain longcoring drives and
10:53it'll be easier for LSU to dictate
10:55possession and take the lead and run the
10:58ball and the clock out. I have&M at only
11:0222 points, actually 21.5.
11:05And that means the under we don't need
11:07LSU's offense to completely fail. They
11:09can still score 27 points if&m scores 21
11:14and we still beat the 52
11:18under. LSU is projected at only 26
11:21points by my projection. Uh even though
11:24they're the most likely winner and
11:26that's important because uh this isn't
11:28simply bet that one offense struggles.
11:31Uh I'm betting that neither team gets to
11:3430 points in this one.
11:37Um, [music] the interception rate for
11:39LSU's quarterback, leave it, is
11:41specifically identified as a source for
11:43volatility. This can hurt the under and
11:45it can hurt LSU's offensive efficiency
11:48as well. The market is pricing LSU at
11:51about - 8 12. Uh, but I see LSU minus 4
11:561/2. One interception could make the
11:58difference in the difference between
12:00those two totals. Texas A&M at plus 8
12:04and a half and under 52 and a half are
12:08compatible positions in the model. It's
12:10closer than market game where LSU wins
12:12without necessarily reaching the 30s. So
12:16the under has many roads to cash. For
12:19example, 2721
12:21uh 2720
12:23241. I think that's the kind of game
12:26we're going to be looking at here.
12:27Again, my model projects 26 to 22. Bit
12:31of a tight matchup here, but overall I
12:34think neither one of these offenses can
12:37explode. So, I like the under 52 and a
12:40half. We cashed LSU's under last week. I
12:42think we're going to cash it again. So,
12:45let me summarize. Uh the first best bet
12:48for this college football Saturday show
12:51is going to be uh South Florida minus
12:5517. Buy a half point off that 17 1.5.
12:58Take him at 17. Bet number two is South
13:01Florida team total over 33.5.
13:05And the third bet is going to be Texas
13:07A&M LSU under 52.5. Again, my college
13:11football totals are 10 wins and two
13:13losses so far in this early season. And
13:17become a member and you can get player
13:20projections for NFL every NFL game. Uh
13:24that would be Let me put my banners back
13:26up. Hang on a second.
13:29There we go. So, uh that is my um
13:34Twitter handle right there, Tokyo
13:35Brennan. But if you see up there, that's
13:37also where I stream live uh se Friday,
13:41Saturday, and Sunday uh at Tokyo Brandon
13:44on YouTube X and uh Kick. So, consider
13:50becoming a member. You'll get NFL player
13:52projections every week, every player,
13:54including defensive players. It's good
13:55for your DFS. It's also good for your
13:59player prop bets. I also give out free
14:02plays in college football, NFL, NHL,
14:06college basketball to my members at
14:08least twice a week, probably more
14:11members in the chat. Please let people
14:13know, and I sorry I can't pull your
14:15comments up. Please let people know that
14:17the membership is good value and that
14:20you are getting your money's worth for
14:21that $9.99 a month. I appreciate you
14:24guys watching. My next live is going to
14:26be Sunday morning. It's going to be the
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14:55I am interacting with you as well. Thank
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