Full transcript
0:00Yeah, it could lead to a lot of mental unrest if not anything else.
0:03People being unhappy with some of the opportunities being
0:06taken away from them.
0:07Yeah, so quickly also on that, a lot of families in the US, they are on
0:12H1, but the children are United States citizens because they are born there.
0:15Now, the parents have to move back, but the kids are still US citizens.
0:19Many of these kids could be in higher education, without pay.
0:23Now it's going to be a huge crisis i understand that people are leaving their homes
0:27uh leaving their cars at airports and coming back so it's going to be a real estate crisis
0:32as well as other challenges in the us so of course a lot of upheaval in the short term.
0:37What do you think is the long, the end game here for the American government?
0:42I know the government will not always stay but do you suspect that this policy could
0:47stay regardless of who comes to power in America are next we just live
0:50in those times yeah so irrespective of the midterm results or the results
0:56in 2028 even if there is a change to the democrats i think this is a fundamental
1:01mindset shift a lot of political messaging has come across and it would be difficult to undo
1:07this because i mean you could change something in letter but changing the mindset and the kind
1:13of political
1:13narrative made would uh it's not easy so i don't think this is going to get
1:18undone very easily um there are still two more years of the current government
1:22and i think they will continue to have the immigration narrative as one
1:26of their primary political narratives so this is not going to get reversed so anybody
1:31in the United States I have lived there my suggestion would be it's not worth living
1:38in a hostile environment where your colleagues or neighbors might not think so
1:41but in the long run when the narrative is going against immigrants the kind
1:46of mental uncertainty and the challenges that you have I would definitely say
1:50that the trade-off in the long run is definitely India is worth it yeah some people believe
1:55this could hurt Americans as much or the American economy or the American
2:00landscape as much as we fear in India, it would hurt Indian workers.
2:05Do you believe so? Oh yeah, definitely.
2:07I think you will see this already when the markets open in the US today evening,
2:12that Microsoft would be impacted.
2:14The costs would go up, right?
2:15As we discussed, if you have to hire American talent,
2:18you will definitely have to pay more and you will not get the same number.
2:21So you'll have to go around the world finding such people
2:23and getting them.
2:24So it's going to hurt the American economy definitely with a lot
2:28of these higher education universities, I have a lot of Indian students
2:34and I understand that there's about a 60 % or 50 % drop in
2:37enrollment because if they don't find the immigration path, so
2:40many universities will face the pain.
2:43They may even shut down. Many companies, the cost will go up.
2:46So obviously the bottom line gets affected and you will see that happening.
2:49Real estate crisis is going to happen because if a neighborhood vacates
2:54and leaves back, the housing prices come down
2:57and that has a cascading effect because a real estate will result
3:01in construction, home loans being defaulted, all these things.
3:05So there is going to be a cascading effect of this.
3:08It's not as easy as just changing a law and hoping that things remain the same.
3:13Many Many neighbourhoods in Texas, Silicon Valley,
3:16New Jersey are all inhabited by Indians.
3:20Many universities, there are 50 % plus of Indian students
3:24being there.
3:24So this is not going to end very well for them as well.
3:27My final question many believe that this is a political pressure point
3:33and it has been used as a political pressure point currently
3:37because of a lot of other things that are going on between India and US.
3:41What is your take on that?
3:43Could it be one of those things that is being used as a pressure tactic only to
3:47be reversed later?
3:50No, I know that the trade deal is being negotiated for a couple of years now
3:54and it has still not come through so this could be used as a negotiating tool.
4:00Perhaps yes, but what I saw last evening
4:03with Elon Musk's tweet about Starlink and other things coming in,
4:08I think it has gone beyond mere political posturing.
4:11There is a deliberate attempt to kind of undermine India in some ways
4:19beyond just the trade deal.
4:20Because the tech, big tech is also jumping
4:23into this and making some statements.
4:25So this is not limited to the trade deal as a negotiating tactic,
4:29because that would not result in the kind of steps taking further.
4:34I think the constituents in the US are asking for real change on the ground.
4:38And it's definitely more real than just political messaging.
4:44He negotiates.
4:45So yes, there is real action happening on the ground as you speak.
4:48Yes, and Indians and Indian government systems have to brace for it.
4:52Shobit Mathur, I do thank you for joining us.
4:54Thank you, thank you for bringing me over.
4:57Time for a very short break.