Planejamento de Apostas Esportivas | Sexta-feira 28/08/26

0:00Hello , my friends . We're starting

0:01another Good Morning Market . Together ,

0:04we'll be planning for this Friday ,

0:06August 28th . Let's go . We have 10

0:09matches for us to browse through here .

0:12I hope you're having a great week .

0:15Regarding Alnaser , who has difficulty

0:17pronouncing that name , Taú Tahu , we

0:20have the possible presence , of course ,

0:22of Cristiano Ronaldo . Let me activate

0:24the odds here . Alnaser's odds are 1.22 .

0:27Alnaser already has four consecutive

0:29wins this season , including in the last

0:32match , crazy , right ? Alnaser started

0:35losing 2-0 in the first half and even

0:37with a red card , they turned it around .

0:39Cristiano Ronaldo didn't score any

0:41goals because he was eventually

0:42sacrificed following that red card

0:43incident , right ? But the comeback at

0:47the end was exciting , right , in the 90

0:50minutes . So , Alnasia is starting the

0:53competition very well , already leading

0:55by nine points ahead of Itihad , Awarley

0:58, and Alilau . However , Alnacia and

1:01Awarley have games in hand , so they

1:03could catch up soon . In the last four

1:06matches between the two teams , Alnasia

1:08hasn't lost in four games , so it's

1:10worth keeping an eye on them playing at

1:12home . Tarum has already made life

1:15difficult for Alnasia here , but in

1:17recent games , specifically the last one

1:19, Alnasia won , and in the context of

1:22the current season , I think Alnasia is

1:24doing very well . Tarum has only won one

1:27game . Perfect . I think it's worth

1:29considering this game as a supplement ,

1:30especially since Cristiano Ronaldo on

1:32the field is a sure bet for those who

1:33like that sort of thing . Speaking of

1:37Alnasia , taking advantage of the

1:39momentum , Alnasia faces Alcale Alcalug

1:42( 1.25 ) in their third round match ,

1:44right ? This is probably an accessible

1:48team , despite being in 10th place , they

1:50haven't won yet , nor have they lost in

1:53their last encounters . Look at the

1:57number of flags Alrilal has drawn , 4 in

2:00eight matches , okay ? At the opponent's

2:03home ground , Alrilal also makes a point

2:06of giving Cujugi a hard time . Look , the

2:09last game was last year , not this year ,

2:11but at the end of last season , right ?

2:14Season 25 , 26 , Caluj took the lead and

2:17Alrilal turned it around in the second

2:19half . And in that game , the odds were

2:22already 1.28 . Now you see , it's a lower

2:24odds , but in the general context , these

2:26are odds that Alrilal is used to . But

2:28look , do that basic mathematical sum ,

2:320.36 plus 0.21 . Then you have

2:35approximately 0.57 units . 0.57 . Then

2:40you add 0.28 here . So , if you were to

2:43take it off here , leaving 0.3 , you'd

2:45have almost a unit of profit , a little

2:47bit more . And then you have the loss of

2:50a unit here in the defeat . So you're

2:52almost at 0-0 . Be careful about getting

2:54too attached to this type of odds . The

2:57interesting thing is , in five of the

2:58last seven matches between them , there

3:00were at least three goals , right ? Over

3:032.5 and both teams to score . It also

3:05happens very frequently . This game is

3:07at the same time as Alner's . Then at

3:093:30 PM we have the Bundesliga finally

3:12starting . The champion Bayern Munich ,

3:15who broke more records last year , faces

3:17the Stuttgart team . That was the final

3:20of the FB Pocal last season . Bayern

3:23beat Stuttgart in that game . Here it is

3:25. It was 3-0 . 2-1 was the Super Cup

3:27final between Bayern and Dortmund . That

3:29game was 3-0 . And Bayern also has a

3:32strong dominance against Stuttger . From

3:36what I'm seeing here , 6 , 7 , 8 wins in

3:38the last 10 games . If I filter by

3:41Bayern's home advantage , it's four

3:43consecutive wins and the odds just keep

3:44going down , right ? It's already reached

3:481.36 , 1.34 , 1.50 , 1.36 and now 1.25 .

3:51There was even a 1.10 odds here when

3:53Bayern won , curiously , okay ? But that

3:55was a much worse phase for Stuttger .

3:57Stuttka is going through a good phase .

3:59I really like the Stuttka team . Stuttka

4:01, if I'm not mistaken , still has the

4:03striker Denis Undav . One of the

4:04highlights of the World Cup , for those

4:05who don't remember , right ? Undav had

4:07already been a highlight for Stuttgart

4:09in their victorious campaigns in recent

4:11seasons , in the German Cup , in the DFB

4:13Pocal of the season before last , which

4:15Stuttka won against Arminia Billfield .

4:18So for me , it's an exceptional team ,

4:20and I really like their striker Denisav

4:22. For example , Voltemad came from there

4:25, right ? He went to Newcastle , and

4:26Senhu Girassi , who's at Dortmund , came

4:28from there too . It's a very good team

4:31at producing strikers . Generally , in

4:33recent games , when they visit Bayern ,

4:35they have difficulty scoring , okay ? But

4:37this 4-0 here happened . Taking away the

4:40filter for Bayern Munich's home games ,

4:43it's over 2.5 in all the games between

4:45them . So you can probably look at the

4:472.5 here in the odds and it will be

4:49there , see , 1.22 . In the context of all

4:52of them , in the last 10 , it still has

4:53value , okay ? But of course , you have to

4:55be cautious if it's not a market you

4:57work in , be very careful . We don't have

4:59statistics . Why ? Because it's just

5:00starting now , right ? I really like

5:02working with Bayern Munich in some

5:03trading contexts . Well , for example , I

5:05like to bet on the worst team on the

5:06field in Bayern , even if it's an

5:07underdog , a very high-scoring team . I

5:09like to back the favorite in Bayern .

5:10There are people who like to bet on a

5:11Bayer rout . Everyone has their own

5:14methodology , okay ? What you shouldn't

5:17do is invent new methods . Never done

5:20this , I'll start now . Reduce your stake

5:22a little , your hand size , keep track ,

5:24do it game by game , and it will become

5:26much clearer to you whether that

5:27methodology suits you or not , because

5:29we have to adapt to the method too ,

5:30right ? It's no use wanting to do it

5:33like , " Oh , so-and-so does it , fine , but

5:34it works for me , it goes against my

5:36emotions . " It's pointless if you keep

5:38inventing methods . It's already such a

5:40difficult situation , isn't it ? Lili PSG

5:42. PSG debuted with a draw against

5:45Rennes , if my memory serves me right .

5:48And it was curious because Ferran

5:50Torres also debuted for PSG in the

5:51second half and he scored two goals ,

5:53right ? Interestingly , a lot of people

5:55are saying Ferran Torres is a flop just

5:57because of the goal in the final and

5:58him being arrogant and all that . Look ,

6:00he came from City , right ? He played for

6:03City , he had a good , great season , not

6:04just the last one , but the last few

6:05seasons at Barça were very good , and

6:07he's a player without much media

6:08attention , right ? He ended up always

6:11being in a team , for example , with City

6:13, where he should have been competing

6:15– I don't know if he ever played Rand

6:17at City – but at City he should have

6:19been competing with other great

6:20strikers . At Barcelona , he had

6:23Lewandowski in his shadow , so he was

6:24always considered a second-half player ,

6:26a guy to fill out the squad . There was

6:29that story , oh , he dated Lenque's

6:30daughter , if I'm not mistaken , or

6:32something like that , and then he was

6:33called up , but , man , the guy scored the

6:35goal that won the Spanish title , the

6:36greatest goal of his career . And then

6:38he gets signed by PSG , a lot of people

6:40joked , the guy already went there and

6:42scored two goals with a pass , right ,

6:43from Fabian Ruiz who played with him in

6:45Spain . So they have a very good

6:46connection , you have to take advantage

6:47of that . And of course , Luiz Henrique

6:49isn't stupid , okay ? He's not stupid .

6:51You see that Fabian Ruiz's passes to

6:52him are passes from someone who knows

6:54him , knows where he's going to attack ,

6:56where he's going to make the run . So ,

6:58honestly , I really liked the

7:00classification of PSG's signing of

7:03Fernando Torres . Going back to the

7:06league situation , facing Lily , PSG

7:08usually doesn't drop many points , eight

7:11wins in 10 matches . They dropped points

7:14twice at Lily's home , once in 2025 ,

7:16right , at the end of last year , and

7:18once in 2023. But generally , in games ,

7:21look here , write this down , both teams

7:23score nine out of 10 and with many over

7:252.5 goals in four of the last five , at

7:28least at Lily's home it's usually like

7:30that , okay ? Lili debuted in the

7:33competition against Anga , it was a good

7:35game for Lili . They went 2-0 up , held

7:38on , and PSG debuted with a draw against

7:41Ren . They had lost to Lance in the

7:43Champions League , right , in the Super

7:46Cup , and also in the UEFA Super Cup ,

7:48beating Aston Villa . We joke about PSG ,

7:50right ? The most they can do in La Liga

7:52is lose the title because they're

7:54already champions . But this Lili , he is

7:56usually the type of opponent that he

7:58beats with some ease , you see ? In the

8:02odds , 2.5 goals is paying 1.72 and both

8:05teams to score is paying 1.70 . We still

8:10have few statistics here , of course , as

8:12is obvious , right ? What we have , for

8:14example , as a curiosity , if you're

8:15interested , is that PSG conceded first

8:18once , 100 % , and in all situations they

8:20sought the equalizer . But this , of

8:22course , isn't a metric here for you to

8:24make any decisions . We also have Milan

8:27playing Venesia , Milan's second game in

8:29the championship . Milan won their

8:31opening match against Tourino . Winning

8:34in Tourino is really frustrating . So I

8:36think it's worth mentioning the awful

8:37performance here . It was a very

8:39dominant performance by Milan , so it's

8:41definitely worth keeping an eye on

8:43Milan at home . Venezia debuted with a

8:46loss to Leipzig and had won in the

8:48Italian Cup in the history between the

8:50two teams in the last two seasons . In

8:53recent encounters , because if I'm not

8:55mistaken Venezia was relegated recently

8:56, and came back a short time ago , right

8:58? So I think in the 2025-2026 season

9:01they were in the second division and

9:03came back now . So they were here , in

9:052024-2025 , they were in Serie A , they

9:07lost to Milan in both games , both at

9:09home and away . At Milan's home ground ,

9:12they were thrashed in the first half ,

9:13and so we can have , the odds were 1.30 ,

9:15right ? So we can have something like

9:17this . Let's see how Venezia will behave

9:19, if they will be that

9:20defensively-minded team . It's still

9:22early , I remembered a song . It's still

9:23early , my love . It's still too early to

9:25talk about statistics here . So , here's

9:27another favorite you have to keep an

9:28eye on . And it's a pretty exciting

9:30Friday , isn't it ? It's a pretty good

9:31Friday . Crystal Palace and Manchester

9:33City . This is a tough , historic

9:36opponent , usually very difficult for

9:38the Big Six teams , but City usually has

9:40more wins than Palace , obviously .

9:43Palace's last big win over City was in

9:46the FA Cup final , the game where Eberit

9:48played – I think it was the final , let

9:51me check here . Eberit scored the goal ,

9:54giving Palace the FA Cup title , 1-0 in

9:57the 16th minute . Eberit , who's at

10:00Arsenal , won the Premier League this

10:02year with his boyhood club , and Marmuch

10:04missed a penalty in that game . So ,

10:07apart from that game , and only in this

10:09competition , City really dominates . Six

10:12wins and three draws in these last nine

10:15encounters . Playing at Palace's home

10:18ground , City won three and drew two .

10:20It's also a matchup that has odds of

10:222.5 out of 7 out of 10 , okay ? I ,

10:24personally speaking , still believe , as

10:26I've already mentioned to you , in the

10:28humanization of City . I think City

10:29tends to have more difficulty with

10:33Maresca than , obviously , against

10:35Guardiola . There was the signing of

10:38Boad , right ? I think it was the signing

10:41of that player who played against

10:43Brazil , right ? Brazil and Morocco in

10:44the opening match . I think his name is

10:46Boad . Good kid , good player , but he

10:49came in a money deal that I'll tell you

10:51, the Premier League is absurd , right ?

10:53It's incredible how much money moves in

10:55transactions there . In the last odds

10:58for City playing in this competition

11:00against Palace away , it was 1.31 , City

11:03didn't win , 1.45 , City won 1.31 and now

11:061.65 . We can say that the second

11:09highest odds , Palace debuted with a

11:11defeat against Everton . We can't say

11:14for sure if Palace will have a bad

11:16season or not , but I'm still quite

11:18apprehensive about this City team , so

11:20if I'm going to make any predictions ,

11:22I'll only know for sure live , okay ? But

11:24the context here is one of over goals .

11:27City has struggled in their opening

11:29matches in recent visits to Palace ,

11:31conceding goals twice in four out of

11:33five , which isn't very high . So , the

11:36trend is for a high-scoring game with

11:38City still trying to find their rhythm

11:41in this match against Maresca . Let's

11:44see if Palace will play reactively as

11:45they like and if City will have more

11:47control of the game and if we'll see

11:49City struggling , right ? But it's still

11:52a game that's very much for live

11:53viewing . Rio AV Sporting . Sporting has

11:55three wins in three games and two

11:58victories so far . Sporting , if I'm not

12:00mistaken , started with a draw here

12:02against Estrela da Amadora and then won

12:04the next two games . They beat Vitória

12:083-2 . A difficult game , right ? Because

12:10Sporting managed to open up a two-or

12:12three-goal lead , right ? And then

12:14conceded two goals in the second half

12:16and then had the victory against

12:17Alverca at home . Rioave Ave , two

12:20defeats so far against Gil Vicente and

12:22Porto , and a victory against Estoril

12:24away from home . Historically , between

12:27these two , Sporting is dominant . Nine

12:31wins in the last 10 matches , right ?

12:34Absurd . Playing away , Sporting won five

12:38of the last six . We also had over 2.5

12:41goals in six out of eight , and Sport

12:44hasn't lost to Rioave in 11 matches ,

12:46right ? We have a rivalry there , a

12:48rivalry , no , a taboo , right , for those

12:50who like it . I'll look at the last

12:52games here . I think we can look at home

12:54and away , but it's not much , right ?

12:55Casafora will provide few games ; it

12:57will be one game for each side . So I'll

13:00look at the last 10 , the last 10 games

13:01here . Remembering that I'm using the

13:03members ' club . You have a free trial of

13:06the membership club for up to 3 days .

13:09The price is very symbolic , it's more

13:11to help support the content , okay ? The

13:13APIs and everything else . Let's go ,

13:15look . In the last 10 games , remembering

13:17that there's some from last season as

13:19well , Sporting has , of course , many

13:21more points , hasn't lost a single match

13:23, won half of them , has scored more

13:24goals , conceded fewer goals , etc. In

13:26the first half , Sporting won six to one

13:28against Rio Ávil , and in the second

13:30half , six to four against Rio Ávil .

13:32Sporting practically needs two shots on

13:35goal to score . Very good , okay ? Very

13:37good indeed . And in terms of

13:38performance , this makes a difference .

13:39Look , Sporting took the lead seven

13:41times and won four of those seven . Rio

13:43Ávil took the lead four times , winning

13:46two . Sporting fell behind twice ,

13:48turning it around once , losing once .

13:51Sport's average number of corner kicks

13:53is much higher here , right ? The team

13:55has taken more than 4.5 corners in 70 %

13:58of their games , and Rio AV takes more ,

14:00even receiving at least one card in 80 %

14:03of their games , right ? The trend here

14:06is Sporting greeting Rio AV as usual .

14:09The odds have been lower before , 1.20

14:12and 1.30 , currently 1.33 . Nothing too

14:16out of the ordinary . And if you had bet

14:19on Sport in those last games at

14:21Rioave's home ground , you would have

14:22had positive expected value . Sport is a

14:25team that generally delivers positive

14:28expected value , and that Sport logo

14:30looks wonderful . Now , three Série B

14:32games . Let's talk about Goiás and São

14:33Bernardo . São Bernardo is one of the

14:35best away teams in the competition , if

14:37I'm not mistaken , and still is , okay ?

14:39Even with the recent coaching change

14:45and everything else going on , São

14:46Bernardo is no longer the best visiting

14:48team that CRB has faced recently , but

14:50they remain one of the ... Although they

14:52have accumulated 20 points , we still

14:53observe here that São Bernardo

14:55continues to be in a situation of

14:56crisis . They had a win against

14:59Operário , but if you put it in context

15:03, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12. One win

15:06in 12 games . It's really bad . And away

15:09from home , where the team had such an

15:11overwhelming record , it's three losses ,

15:12one win , and one draw in the last five

15:14games . So you can't trust the São

15:17Bernardo team that much anymore , which

15:18today tends to fight much more to stay

15:20in the league than to actually stay at

15:22the top . And it's a team that has

15:24already been in the lead , right ? Twice

15:26they've been close to the lead in this

15:28Brazilian championship . Let's see . Here

15:32I'm using the Brazilian Championship as

15:33an example to make it easier to

15:34understand , which also strengthens São

15:36Bernardo's numbers a bit , right ? After

15:38all , it's a team that's having a very

15:41good run away from home overall . Look ,

15:44they've earned more points per away

15:46game , won the same amount , lost less ,

15:49and scored more frequently , right ? They

15:53scored in 10 out of 11 games they

15:55played . They also conceded goals very

15:57frequently , and have a higher average

15:58of goals scored . In the first half ,

16:00Goiás won more , in the second half ,

16:02São Bernardo won more . And São

16:04Bernardo's finishing and efficiency are

16:05better . They are better . However , I'm

16:07talking about São Bernardo's overall

16:09away form here . Only when we look at

16:11the last few games , and I'll change

16:12this so you can see , in the last 10

16:14games , does São Bernardo's situation

16:15change . Look , 0.7 points earned , only

16:19one win . They lost 50 % of their games

16:23and conceded a goal in every match . So ,

16:26São Bernardo's form in the last 10

16:27games has been very difficult . In those

16:29last 10 games , the team was ahead half

16:31the time and behind half the time . When

16:33they were ahead , they only managed to

16:34win once . When they were behind , they

16:36didn't turn any of them around . They

16:37were behind five times and lost four .

16:40So , São Bernardo's current form puts

16:41Goiás at a good odds , possibly with

16:43expected value . But let's take a closer

16:46look here . Goiás , playing at home ,

16:49delivered 0.4 units with odds of 0.4 in

16:52the Brasileirão . So , when they played

16:56with odds below two , they delivered

16:58value , even having lost against Cuiabá

17:00. And they face a São Bernardo team

17:03that , at this moment , away from home ,

17:04despite having almost 16 units of

17:06profit because they really had an

17:07exceptional campaign throughout the

17:09competition , is currently going through

17:11a bad phase . And , when they play as

17:14underdogs , despite delivering many

17:15units , I can't consider São Bernardo a

17:17good situation , because football is

17:19about momentum and their current

17:21situation is tense . So , Goiás is

17:24actually in better shape , in my opinion

17:25, even though Goiás is also coming off

17:27three games without a win . I think São

17:30Bernardo's situation makes Goiás more

17:33deserving of this rating , but as your

17:35friend would say , don't embrace anyone ,

17:37okay ? Don't embrace anyone . In the last

17:40few games , I'll come back here to the

17:41away games because I want to see how

17:43Goiás performs at home in terms of

17:44corner kicks , for those who like that

17:46sort of thing , right ? Look , Goiás had

17:48almost twice as many corners as São

17:50Bernardo , and they took more than 3.5

17:52in almost 90 % of their games . They both

17:54take them about the same , right ? Goiás

17:57received at least one card in 91 % of

17:58their home games , and São Bernardo at

18:01least one in 82 % , but they both get

18:03more than one card per player . I'll

18:06leave this on the screen for you to see

18:08: Cadu and Nicolas for Goiás ; Lucas

18:10Lima and Cadu for tackles ; Cadu and

18:12Esle for shots on target for São

18:14Bernardo ; Dudu , Miraima , and Felipe

18:16Garcia for fouls ; Pedro Vior and

18:18Rodrigo Ferreira for tackles ; and Pedro

18:21Riv , Pedro Vittor , and Echapura for

18:23shots on target . Okay , but it's a game ,

18:26in my opinion , well-suited for live

18:28viewing . Nobody is having a good run of

18:30form there . Náutico and Atletique are

18:32also very close in the standings , with

18:34only three points of difference between

18:36them . Ah , in the context of their last

18:40games , Náutico has a six-game unbeaten

18:42streak since their loss to CRB , and

18:45Atletique is coming off two consecutive

18:48defeats . Náutico has lost four times

18:50at home in the championship and hasn't

18:52delivered the expected positive value .

18:55Atletique has only lost twice away and

18:58delivers half a unit , right ? When we

19:01set even odds for Atletique , the profit

19:03is 1.9 units . And when we set odds

19:06favoring CRB , it's 1.4 . So , both teams

19:09deliver positive expected value ,

19:11considering home and away games . In

19:14recent games , CRB has earned slightly

19:16more points at home than Atletique has

19:18away . They've won a little more and

19:21lost a little more as well . Atletique

19:23has lost at least a little less , right ?

19:24In other words , Atletique draws a lot

19:25away from home . Atletique has scored

19:27more goals more frequently and conceded

19:29more frequently as well . The first half

19:32is very close , and the second half even

19:34closer . And the finishing and

19:36efficiency here — I want to show you

19:38this image — is something that catches

19:39my attention . Look at this : Atletique

19:42needs 2.31 shots on target to score a

19:45goal , compared to Náutico's 6.1 . This

19:48means that Atlético might have very

19:50little possession in this game ; in fact

19:52, Náutico's average possession at home

19:54is 60 % compared to Atlético's 41 % away ,

19:56but they can be very lethal on

19:58counter-attacks . So be very careful

20:00with that , okay ? Be very careful with

20:02that , because Náutico's possession

20:04won't mean much here . At home , Náutico

20:06took the lead six times , and in five of

20:08those instances , they secured the

20:10victory . Great . Atlético took the lead

20:12twice away from home , and in fact , they

20:14won three of those games . That's also

20:15very good . Náutico fell behind four

20:17times and lost four , meaning they have

20:19the ability to hold onto a lead , but

20:21they also have enormous difficulty in

20:23overturning a score . That's a problem .

20:25Náutico's corner kicks . Wow , what a

20:27huge average of corner kicks for

20:29Náutico . 8.45 . They're a team that

20:32produces a lot of corners . They

20:34averaged over 5.5 corners in 82 % of

20:36their home games . Excellent . You can

20:39already see the path to corners here .

20:41In terms of cards , Atletico and

20:43Náutico also commit a lot of fouls ,

20:45but Atletico does a bit more . Both

20:46received cards in all their home and

20:48away games . More than 90 % , more than

20:50one card . And Náutico even reached

20:53three cards in 73 % of their games , okay ?

20:56Since both have a positive expected

20:58value and Náutico is on a longer

21:00unbeaten run , Náutico's moment is

21:02better . But you can already see that

21:05Atletico doesn't need much possession

21:07to create danger , and I would look more

21:08favorably on corners than on the

21:10results market . After all , Náutico has

21:12a lot of possession and Atletico plays

21:15defensively . The trend here is for many

21:17corners . Novo Horizontino and Sport .

21:20Two teams neck and neck , two points

21:22apart , within the playoff zone trying

21:23to move up , okay ? Novo Horizontino is

21:26even trying , who knows , a direct

21:27promotion . In the direct confrontation

21:30between them , Sport has recently come

21:31out on top more often , with only one

21:33victory for Novo Horizontino . Sport

21:35even won the last time they were there ,

21:37okay ? Novo Horizontino , at this moment ,

21:40has three unbeaten games , and if we

21:42filter by the Brasileirão , only three

21:44defeats for Novo Horizontino . Playing

21:46with odds of favoritism , the team

21:48delivered 0.8 units of profit . Sport ,

21:52playing away from home in the

21:53championship , lost three matches and

21:55delivered 1.6 units . When playing as

21:58the underdog , they lost both matches .

22:01In other words , every time Sport played

22:03with very high odds , they lost both

22:05games . And then I'll tell you a curious

22:07situation . This is the highest odds in

22:10the entire Brazilian Série B

22:12championship . Could Juventude do that

22:15to Sport ? Would Novo Horizontino have

22:18that capacity , that guts at home ? Novo

22:20Horizontino has already played Criciuma

22:22at home and lost . Novo Horizontino has

22:23already played Juventude and lost . Hmm

22:26hmm hmm hmm . Who else is close to them

22:29here ? Vila Nova . Novo Horizontino

22:31already played Vila Nova and won 2-1 .

22:33They won . Could Novo Horizontino really

22:36have that kind of guts ? This isn't Novo

22:39Horizontino's lowest odds in the

22:40championship , is it ? But the times

22:43they've had odds here , they've been

22:45around 1.70 . Let's be picky . 1.70

22:48against Londrina , they lost ; 1.65

22:51against Atletica , they won ; 1.53 , they

22:55won ; 1.83 , they lost . In short , in

22:58total they're giving away almost a unit

22:59of profit . But the question remains ,

23:02playing against a team close to the

23:04lead that's in the playoff zone , very

23:05close to them . Could Novo Horizontino

23:09put Sport at the highest odds in the

23:10championship ? It gives me the feeling

23:13that the market has exaggerated here ,

23:15including the history between them ,

23:17right , that Sport has many more wins .

23:19So , in my humble opinion , they're a

23:21favorite that could get into trouble .

23:23Humble opinion . Novo Horizontino

23:25usually takes the lead when they're

23:27playing as favorites . How many times

23:29have they taken the lead ? 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5

23:31, 6 out of eight . That's favorable ,

23:34right ? Sport , playing away from home ,

23:36hasn't opened the scoring that many

23:37times . They came back , yes , they came

23:39back against Londrina when they were

23:40behind . They beat Ponte after falling

23:42behind . Anyway . Let's put home and away

23:45games here to see the context . Ah , okay

23:48. Anyway , this game doesn't smell very

23:49good to me . Novo Horizontino has more

23:51points per game , but it's not that far

23:53off . A little more wins , the same

23:55number of losses . They score goals more

23:58frequently , concede goals more

23:59frequently , and have less possession

24:01than Sport . Sport won more in the first

24:03half . In the second half , Novo

24:05Horizontino really improves . So , it

24:07could be that the goals , let's talk

24:08about goals , Novo Horizontino scores

24:10much more at the end of the game . Why

24:12would you bet on odds of 1.70 if the

24:14team plays better in the second half ?

24:16Hmm , pay attention to me here , look ,

24:18look . Uh , pay attention . And Novo

24:20Horizontino also struggles a lot at the

24:21end of the game . Sport usually scores

24:23in the first half too , so let's be

24:25careful , okay ? Regarding shot

24:27efficiency here , Sport needs 3.50

24:29attempts to score a goal , which is less

24:31than what Novo Horizontino requires .

24:33It's almost the same , but it's less . So

24:34Sport doesn't need to give possession

24:36to create danger . Sport is in good form

24:38. Sport has lost one out of three out

24:41of four . Or if you want to extend

24:43Sport's unbeaten run , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8.

24:46One loss in eight games . Away from home

24:49, Sport is doing well , coming off a

24:51loss to Avaí , but they took the lead ,

24:53then conceded the comeback . In other

24:55words , we could have a scenario where

24:57Novo Horizontino even wins , but

24:58sometimes complicates things , falling

25:00behind , scoring later . I don't like

25:02this Novo Horizontino odds . Even in

25:03this context , I see much more value in

25:05a scenario that favors the sport . An

25:07Asian handicap , a double chance , the

25:09double chance is at 210 , but the Asian

25:11handicap could be interesting , the odds

25:13for Novo Horizontino are very high .

25:15Novo Horizontino , when they take the

25:17lead , really maintains their advantage

25:18at home ; they took the lead seven times

25:20and held onto it six times . Sport took

25:22the lead four times away and held on to

25:24the victory twice , but Sport fell

25:26behind four times and turned the game

25:28around twice . Novo Horizontino fell

25:29behind four times and didn't turn it

25:31around at all . They lost three and drew

25:33one . Okay ? As I said , on average , Sport

25:36and Novo Horizontino score more in the

25:38second half , but if you look closely ,

25:40the average for both here is under ,

25:42okay ? It's few goals . Novo Horizontino

25:45produces much more in corners . Here

25:46you'll probably see Novo Horizontino

25:48having more corners . They won corners

25:50in nine of the 11 games they played at

25:52home , if I'm not mistaken , and produced

25:54quite a lot , right ? He even took more

25:57than 4.5 corner kicks in all the games

25:59he played at home . Very good , very good

26:02indeed . Regarding cards , Sport has more

26:04, receiving at least two cards in 73 % of

26:06the games . That's it . The top scorer

26:09here at Novo Horizontino is Robson with

26:1113 goals , followed by Rômulo with five

26:12. Rômulo has 10 assists . The

26:15importance of these two is incredible ,

26:16isn't it ? Check if they'll be playing .

26:19At Sport , Perot has 10 goals and

26:21Barleta has nine goals with three

26:23assists as well . The importance of

26:26these two is incredible . I don't like

26:28this Novo Horizontino rating . I think

26:29Sport could make things difficult for

26:31them here . And I'll leave it at that .

26:32Thank you very much for your company .

26:34I'll see you tomorrow . Be careful and

26:36until next time .