Full transcript
0:01I got a first-five winner on tonight's
0:03MLB slate. Let's talk about it.
0:11What's going on everyone? It's your boy
0:13Tommy Totals, aka Turn Buckle Tommy.
0:14We're here to break down the Toronto
0:16Blue Jays at the Texas Rangers. Taking
0:18the bump for the Blue Jays, they're
0:20going with their ace righty Dylan Cease.
0:22He's 11 and five on the season, a 2.38
0:25ERA, 236
0:27strikeouts on the season. Standing
0:29opposite of him, we got Kumar Rocker for
0:32the Texas Rangers. He's the righty,
0:34they're five and 11 in his starts with a
0:354.54 ERA, 132 strikeouts. Let's dive a
0:41little deeper into this matchup. So, if
0:43we look at Dylan Cease, he's actually
0:46has a terrible history against the Texas
0:49Rangers. Uh he's only seen them once
0:51this year, that was on June 27th. He
0:53only or June 27th, I'm sorry. He only
0:56went 4.2 innings pitched, did allow four
0:58hits, did have 16 strikeouts. But, if
1:01you look at his last three career starts
1:03against Texas, he has a combined 15.30
1:06ERA, a 2.90
1:09whip, a .404 average against a 6.69 FIP,
1:13uh 16% walk rate. For whatever reason,
1:17he has just been atrocious when he sees
1:20this Rangers lineup. Now, Kumar Rocker
1:24on the other hand, he only has two
1:25career starts
1:27against the Blue Jays. One coming in
1:282024, the other one this year June 28th.
1:31He's got a 1.00 ERA, a 1.22 whip, a .182
1:35average against a 2.43 FIP, only a 4.2%
1:39barrel rate. He does have a double-digit
1:40walk rate at 12 and 1/2%. But, he's I
1:43mean, he's been lights out against this
1:44Blue Jays team. However, this season
1:47Dylan Cease looks like a man on a
1:49mission. He he truly does. I mean,
1:51leading Cy Young candidate, he has just
1:52been lights out. Kumar Rocker at home
1:56hasn't been that impressive. He hasn't
1:59been that great. He's actually been
2:00better on the road at home a 5.02
2:03Sorry, a 5.02 ERA, a 1.39 whip, a 260
2:07average against, a 4.91 FIP, 8% barrel
2:10rate, only a 19% K rate.
2:13I expect Dylan Cease to truly bounce
2:16back in this game. I expect him to kind
2:18of, you know, seal up why he's in the Cy
2:21Young discussion in the first place. If
2:23we look, the lineups do have some
2:24experience against these pitchers.
2:26The Blue Jays 24 plate appearances
2:28against Kumar Rocker with a 190 average,
2:30a 440 OPS. On the other side, the
2:33Rangers 62 plate appearances against
2:35Dylan Cease, a 268 average with a 751
2:38OPS.
2:40The Blue Jays have lost the last five
2:42head-to-head matches to the Texas
2:44Rangers.
2:45So, I don't really want to trust them
2:47full game. Their bullpen has been solid
2:50though, and that is where the Blue Jays
2:52have the advantage in this game. Texas
2:54does not have a rested bullpen.
2:56Their bullpens ranked 22nd overall on
2:58the season. They're about number 17th
3:00over the last 10 games, but you know,
3:03you have Latos on two of the last three.
3:05You have Eovaldi on two of the last
3:07three. Garcia will be available, but
3:09Alexander on two of the last three.
3:11Silsith on two of the last three.
3:13Allstrom threw 18 yesterday. Eovaldi
3:16threw 46 the day before that. He
3:18probably won't come out of the bullpen
3:19anyway, but so this Texas bullpen is
3:22taxed. Meanwhile, this Blue Jays bullpen
3:24for the most part is completely rested.
3:26Spencer Miles would probably be the only
3:28one not available. So, I want to limit
3:30it to the first five innings. I want
3:32Dylan Cease against Kumar Rocker. I
3:35can't blame anyone for wanting to take
3:36Blue Jays money line. At minus 140 with
3:39Cease on the mound, they have a huge
3:40bullpen advantage, so I can't be mad at
3:42that. But personally, I think with the
3:44way Cease is pitching this year, he has
3:46been lights out. This was one of his bad
3:49starts, and I think he wants to redeem
3:51that start here. So, give us the Blue
3:53Jays first five on the money line. That
3:56is how we are going to get paid in this
3:57game. If you want more free picks like
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