Full transcript
0:26thanks testing good I'm I'm attached to
0:29my podium my normal routine is to be
0:31running around the stage uh so I'm going
0:33to try very hard to stand in one place
0:35and I hope you can at least hear if you
0:38can't see thanks so much for being here
0:40what a big crowd um it's the 4th of July
0:43and every fourth of July the New York
0:45Times reprints the Declaration of
0:47Independence and one of my guilty
0:49pleasures is I get up early in the
0:50morning on the 4th of July and I get a
0:51big cup of coffee and I read the
0:53Declaration of Independence I've never
0:55admitted this in public before but I
0:57feel like I ought to be confessional the
0:59um the phrases of course that stick with
1:01me and the ideas that stick with me are
1:03the ones introduced early on in the very
1:06first sentences where we read that it's
1:09self-evident that people have some
1:10inalienable rights and they are life
1:13liberty and then ding my eyes light up
1:17the pursuit of happiness and it occurs
1:20to me when I read this that the founding
1:22fathers thought that the pursuit of
1:24happiness was very difficult but not
1:26particularly complicated there was
1:28nothing very mysterious about it there
1:30was no secret of happiness I mean after
1:32all for most of human history uh life
1:34was nasty short and brutish people got
1:36up in the morning and they basically
1:38tried not to die uh you know food was
1:41scarce a day of labor was long your
1:43children probably wouldn't live into
1:45adulthood everybody knew exactly what
1:47happiness was happiness is what happens
1:50when you get exactly what you're aiming
1:52for and that never happens in this
1:54lifetime well this Theory turns out gets
1:57put to a test because in the blink think
2:00of an eye in historical time we undergo
2:02three revolutions the uh Agricultural
2:05Revolution the Industrial Revolution the
2:07technological Revolution and all of a
2:09sudden for the very first time in the
2:11history of our planet large populations
2:13of people on earth have everything they
2:16want or at least everything they could
2:18possibly need and guess what they're not
2:22happy there goes the theory it can't be
2:26the case that happiness is just the
2:28result of getting what you are in aing
2:30for because when people get what they're
2:31aiming for they don't seem to be
2:33particularly happy the conclusion is
2:35very clear it must be that we're aiming
2:38for the wrong things now how can that
2:41possibly be well the answer to this
2:43question requires that you understand
2:45something very unique about human beings
2:48one of the things that makes us an
2:49animal different from all the others
2:51with which we share the planet every
2:53animal learns from experience that
2:55starts with one-cell animals all the way
2:58up they all learn from experience
3:00and that's good but it's a problem
3:02because experience can be expensive
3:05right you have a close encounter of the
3:06feline kind and you learn not to do it
3:09again if you survive trial and error is
3:12a good way to learn but it has a cost
3:14and the cost is error right now human
3:19beings have learned to do something
3:22different something no other animal does
3:24at least to the extent we do it about 2
3:27million years ago nature decided
3:29trialing error wasn't good enough for us
3:31and so it undertook a complete
3:33architectural overhaul of the human
3:35skull it pushed your head forward not to
3:37keep your hat on but because your brain
3:40tripled in size in two million years
3:43most of this growth is centered on a
3:45particular part of the brain called the
3:46frontal lobe so question what does a
3:49frontal lobe do that made nature think
3:51it was so important that you have a big
3:53fat one that it actually rearranged the
3:55way your SK well the frontal lobe does a
3:58lot of things but one of the most
3:59important things it does is it lets you
4:02imagine that's why you are able to know
4:05without actually whipping up a batch
4:08that raw steak Banana Split is not a
4:11good thing right the guys at Ben and
4:14Jerry's didn't make this try it and go
4:16error you can close your eyes and
4:19simulate The Experience now it's kind of
4:21cute when you're talking about ice cream
4:23but think about this adaptation this
4:25means that you are the only animal on
4:28the planet that learns from mistakes you
4:31never made Should I stick my finger in
4:33the pencil sharpener oo bad idea that is
4:36a miracle that you can actually know
4:38that without trying it just like Pilots
4:41use flight simulators to see what it
4:43will be like to be in a plane this part
4:45of your brain is a life simulator and it
4:47allows you to simulate decisions before
4:49you actually take them that's the good
4:52news the bad news is it's new and it's
4:55still in beta testing we have the
4:58ability to imagine but imagination has
5:00limits the life simulator fails and it
5:03fails in very predictable ways study
5:06after study in the last two decades has
5:08shown that people make a systematic
5:11series of Errors when they try to
5:12predict not what will happen in the
5:14future but how they will feel about it
5:17here's an example now uh some of you are
5:20professors almost all of you know
5:22professors and so you know that the
5:23career course of a professor is that you
5:25work for a little while as an assistant
5:27professor and then after X number of
5:28years they give you one of two hats
5:30either you don't get tenure and you go
5:33spend your life going cheese no cheese
5:35or you get tenure and you wear the uh
5:36pompus you have to listen to me every
5:38time I talk hat okay now here's the
5:41question which group of people ends up
5:43happier well if you ask assistant
5:45professors these questions would you be
5:48happier in your life if you get tenure
5:50or if you don't they give you the
5:52obvious answers now I'm a scientist so
5:54I'm not going to just Yap to you about
5:56ideas I'm going to try to marinate you
5:57in data but I'll try to show it kindly
6:00here's a study in which assistant
6:01professors are asked to predict their
6:03happiness in the first 5 years after the
6:05tenure decision and they think this is a
6:07one item IQ question right this of
6:10course I'm going to be much happier if I
6:12get it than if I don't what's the
6:14reality well here's how happy people are
6:16after the tenure decision in the first 5
6:18years and this is a statistically
6:19non-significant difference in other
6:21words it doesn't matter their happiness
6:23will be exactly the same I should
6:25mention by the way that however the
6:26tenure decision goes everybody is
6:28happier than assistant professors but
6:30the point is they're not happier they're
6:33not happier if they get tenure than now
6:35if you find this unbelievable I don't
6:37mean the day it happens I'm talking
6:39about how their lives play out over the
6:41next couple of years this is a failure
6:44of the life simulator and this pattern
6:46of data is seen in study after study
6:48after study whether it's about trivial
6:50things like how will you feel if
6:52somebody gives you a compliment to
6:53really important things like how will
6:55you feel if you get a a kidney
6:57transplant the pattern of data is very
6:59clear and the only question is why why
7:02are we so bad at looking into our own
7:04emotional Futures and figuring out what
7:05will make us happy how happy we'll be
7:07and how long our happiness will last
7:09well I think there are four answers to
7:11this question there are four things that
7:13we fundamentally don't understand about
7:15human happiness four things that make
7:17all of us strangers to ourselves and
7:19what I'd like to do in my time today is
7:21tell you what they are my talk was
7:23titled the four answers because I grew
7:24up in a religious tradition where we
7:26have four questions and now we thought
7:27it' be nice to have four answers to
7:29today I'm going to give you
7:32some okay so Point number one I want you
7:37to use your imagination right now to
7:39imagine buying a newspaper no I really
7:41mean it just take one second there's a
7:44news stand to help you out just imagine
7:46buying a
7:48newspaper okay you all look like you're
7:50done yeah okay so what Bill did you pay
7:55with 10 20 what paper what day was it
7:58what was that the headline did you fold
8:00it put it under your arm did you step
8:01backwards or forwards turn left or right
8:04okay none of you have answered this
8:05question did you even do what I asked
8:07yes you did you imagin buying a paper
8:09but what you did is a Hallmark of
8:11imagination which is you imagined the
8:13central entral feature which is paper
8:16comes to me and you left out all the
8:18details imagination has to leave stuff
8:21out right it can't take as long to
8:24imagine something as it does to do it
8:26otherwise when somebody said ah imagine
8:28living in Chicago you'd be permanently
8:30sidelined that would be the rest of your
8:31life you I'm day 47 now wait I'm waking
8:34up for breakfast that's not what how
8:36imagination Works imagination leaves
8:39stuff out but what does it leave out
8:40well it leaves out the inessential
8:42details so if I say to you imagine going
8:45to the dentist this is the mental image
8:47you get somebody monkeying around in
8:48your mouth what you don't imagine almost
8:51certainly is parking the car or going
8:54through the new highlights for children
8:56in the off in the waiting room right
8:59those those are the parts that seem
9:00inessential now thank you imagination
9:02for leaving out inessential details
9:04except and here's the problem
9:06inessential Details Matter all the
9:09thousands of little details that you
9:11don't imagine when you imagine actually
9:14end up affecting how happy or unhappy
9:16you are here I'll give you an example um
9:18this is the state of California and if
9:20you do surveys and you ask Americans who
9:22don't live there would you be happier if
9:24you lived in California they give you a
9:25resounding yes oh yeah I'd be happier in
9:27California if you ask California are you
9:29happier than people who don't live in
9:31California they go yeah we're happier
9:32than people who don't live in California
9:33they're all wrong there is actually no
9:35reliable uh correlation between living
9:38in California and happiness why do we
9:39all make this mistake because living in
9:41California brings up this picture for
9:43almost all of us right Beautiful People
9:46beautiful beaches here's what you don't
9:47imagine you don't imagine traffic you
9:49don't imagine earthquakes you don't
9:51imagine the fact that when you get there
9:52you have to have a job where you got a
9:54mother-in-law you get the flu you get
9:57divorced you get a different mother
9:59mother-in-law all the stuff of real
10:01ordinary life happens in
10:04California and be now these things are
10:07important and they will affect your
10:08happiness but when somebody says would
10:09you like living in California you go
10:11Beach Water Beach Water Beach water
10:13that's imagination leaving out important
10:16stuff now it turns out that you can I
10:19can demonstrate to you that this is a
10:20key problem in people forecasting their
10:23honic or emotional reactions to future
10:25events because you can improve people's
10:27accuracy of imagination simply by asking
10:30them to imagine a few of the details
10:32they left out here's a very simple study
10:34football fans are asked how they're
10:35going to feel 3 days after a very very
10:37big important game between two teams
10:40that are Arch Rivals now one group is
10:42asked we'll call this the narrow Focus
10:44condition there simply ask the question
10:46that you see up there how will you feel
10:48how happy or unhappy on a scale from
10:50unhappy to happy how will you feel three
10:52days after your team wins or after your
10:54team loses another group of people are
10:57asked exactly this question but they're
10:58ask to do one thing first before you
11:01tell me how you're going to feel 3 days
11:03after this game is played tell me first
11:05the things you'll be doing and these are
11:07students and so they say things like
11:08well I guess I've got an exam between
11:10now and then oh there's a cool party I'm
11:12going to go to uh oh I've got to mow the
11:14lawn uh I'm going to call my sister the
11:17usual stuff people do in 3 days all the
11:19things that imagination normally leaves
11:21out let's look at the data on how
11:23accurate these people are in the narrow
11:25Focus condition we see a pattern of data
11:28we see every every time we study these
11:29kinds of events mainly that the losers
11:32overestimate how happy uh how unhappy
11:34they're going to be and the winners
11:35overestimate how happy they're going to
11:37be hey hello it's a football game it's
11:39three days later it doesn't make a damn
11:41bit of difference but when people are
11:43predicting they think it'll matter these
11:45are any deviation from that line in the
11:47middle of the graft is is inaccuracy but
11:50look at the at the wide Focus condition
11:53simply asking people the question tell
11:55me some things you'll be doing in those
11:56three days ameliorates this are error
11:59makes people more accurate in predicting
12:01how they're going to feel 3 days after a
12:03football game so here's lesson number
12:05one what we don't imagine matters more
12:08than we imagine it does that's the
12:09essential Point lesson number two answer
12:12number two I guess it's not much of a
12:14lesson let me introduce you to answer
12:16number two by introducing you to some
12:18people that I met in the pages of the
12:19New York
12:21Times here are some things that they
12:24that I they have to say uh I'm so much
12:26better off physically financially
12:28mentally and almost every way uh I don't
12:30have one minute's regret it was a
12:31glorious experience and I believe it
12:33turned out for the best who are these
12:34people what are they talking about well
12:36the first person is Jim Wright who in
12:39this audience actually there are going
12:40to be a few people who recognize him Jim
12:42Wright was the Speaker of the House of
12:43Representatives probably at the time the
12:45most powerful Democrat in the United
12:47States a young guy named n Gingrich
12:49caught him doing a shady book deal and
12:50he resigned in disgrace they catch up
12:53with Jim Wright decades later and ask
12:55him about his life and what he doesn't
12:57say is I resigned in in disgrace what do
12:59you think I've got a terrible life no he
13:01says I'm so much better off physically
13:03financially mentally and in almost every
13:05other way what's unusual about this is
13:07what other ways are there I animal
13:10minerally Vegeta I mean he's got them
13:12all right he's better off in every
13:14possible way okay here's the second guy
13:17from the newspaper his name is Maurice
13:19bickham and you've never heard of him
13:20Maurice bickham was a 78-year-old man
13:23who uttered these words upon being
13:24released from prison in Louisiana he had
13:26spent most of his life there for having
13:28the audacity to fight back against the
13:31Klux clansmen who had tried to Lynch him
13:34and uh after spending I believe he was
13:36in prison for 45 years he's released and
13:38somebody says gee Maurice how was it and
13:41he says I don't have one minute to
13:42regret it was a glorious experience okay
13:45not it was okay met some nice guys the
13:48food was all right there was a gym it
13:49was a glorious experience it's a word we
13:51usually re reserved for like a religious
13:54experience okay third guy is a person
13:57you've never heard of but you should
13:59have heard of uh Harry langerman it
14:01turned out for the best what's Harry
14:03talking about well Harry in the I think
14:051940s had an idea he wanted to open a
14:08restaurant so he went to his brother
14:09who's an investment banker and he said
14:11will you bankroll me and he said you
14:13idiot you don't know anything about
14:14restaurants Harry had to admit that was
14:16true so he got in his car and he drove
14:18from the east coast to the West Coast
14:19studying restaurants by stopping and
14:21eating in them gets to the West Coast he
14:23pulls into a little Hamburger Stand
14:24owned by these guys named the McDonald's
14:26Brothers he tries the burgers goes this
14:27is an idea
14:29can I franchise this restaurant they say
14:31sure we want $33,000 for the franchise
14:34Harry goes back to New York this is all
14:35in the article asks his brother and his
14:37brother's famous words quoted here are
14:38you idiot no one eats hamburgers he
14:40won't give him the money well about six
14:42months Ray Croc gets the money and
14:44becomes for a Time the richest man in
14:45America what happens to Harry a middle
14:47level manager for the Black Angus
14:49restaurant chain what does he have to
14:51say screw my brother no no people do eat
14:55hamburgers no it turned out for the best
14:58just one more these are four guys most
15:01everyone recognizes three of them and us
15:03with white and our beards recognize all
15:04four these are the Beetles the original
15:06Beatles Paul John George and whoa
15:09where's Ringo well that's their original
15:11drummer Pete best and as you know Pete
15:13best ended up getting flung out of the
15:15Beatles and they found Ringo on a tour
15:17and became the world's most famous uh
15:21popular music group what does Pete best
15:23say about all this well he says I'm
15:24happier than I would have been with the
15:26Beatles if you even play a musical
15:28strument contemplate what he is saying
15:30here okay I am happier than I would have
15:32been being a member of the alltime most
15:36important and it's not like he gave up
15:38music and went into the restaurant
15:39business he's a session drummer okay but
15:42he's happier than he would have been
15:43with the Beatles here's the question are
15:44these people crazy answer no they are
15:46not crazy at all they are doing exactly
15:49what brains are beautifully designed to
15:51do and I'm going to show you the trick
15:53this is called a Necker Cube uh named
15:56after the Swiss crystallographer In 1832
15:58who uh designed it and most of you have
16:01seen this lovely optical illusion it's a
16:03cube that is an ambiguous object which
16:05is to say there are two ways to
16:07interpret this drawing and if you stare
16:09at it you will see that you're looking
16:11at a a box and you feel like you're
16:13looking in and all of a sudden it goes
16:14and it seems to just pop and it
16:16lays on its side that's because it can
16:19actually be read by your brain either
16:22way here I'll help you by passing bars
16:24through it if you're not seeing the
16:25illusion this usually helps bing bang
16:28woo right okay so this is cheaper than
16:30drugs and if you've got nothing to do on
16:32a Friday night you can basically sit
16:34around and watch this thing pop back and
16:35forth and what will happen is it will
16:37just flip flop flip flop for the rest of
16:40Eternity till you get tired and
16:42basically fall in the Shrubbery
16:44now if I reward you for seeing it one
16:48way rather than the other something as
16:49simple as hey every time it's on its
16:51side you tell me and you go side top
16:54side top and every time you go side I go
16:57H oh M I give you a little subtle reward
17:00guess what happens in about two minutes
17:02you can't flip the cube you can no
17:05longer see it from the top position
17:06because I've been rewarding your brain
17:08for seeing it on the side position this
17:10tells us something important it's not
17:12just that the brain resolves ambiguity
17:15the brain exploits ambiguity the human
17:18brain is designed to go shopping among
17:20the many ways in which it can interpret
17:22an ambiguous figure and pick the one
17:25that feels best all other things being
17:27equal it turns out that it's hard to
17:30draw an ambiguous figure but almost
17:32every event you experience in life has
17:34plenty of ambiguity is resigning from
17:37the house losing your job or is it
17:39gaining New Freedom flip flop flip flop
17:43is going to prison losing your freedom
17:45or being forced into a spiritual journey
17:47flip flop flip flop is losing the gig of
17:52being one of the Beatles uh losing an
17:54opportunity to make history or is it
17:56gaining family happiness flip flop flop
17:58flip flop that's what our brains are
18:01good at they are designed to find the
18:03best way to see things now what's
18:06amazing about this because I don't think
18:08I've told you anything you probably
18:09don't already suspect from spending a
18:11few decades among the human beings on
18:13the planet what's so amazing about this
18:15is people don't know that they will do
18:19this with ambiguous events even moments
18:21before they do it watch this let me talk
18:24to you for a moment about the I'll show
18:26you a study on the experience rejection
18:28an experience nobody likes and virtually
18:30all of us have had we've all been in the
18:32position of having others tell us we're
18:34not going to give you what you want we
18:36don't like you we don't accept you you
18:38can't be part of the fun now often times
18:42rejection is ambiguous you ask somebody
18:44for a date they say no why did that
18:46happen could be that I'm no good flip
18:48flop could be she just is an anti-semite
18:51flip flop flip could be that I'm not
18:53handsome flipflop could be that uh she
18:56is gay flipflop right and it's not too
19:00hard to go oh you know I I I found the
19:02gay anti-semite at the ideas Festival
19:05what was I to do that's ambiguous
19:07rejection but there's also unambiguous
19:10rejection for example when everybody
19:12turns you down for a date or something
19:14else right as my mother would have said
19:16you know they can't all be crazy there's
19:17something wrong with you indeed okay so
19:20here's the question now if you knew that
19:23your brain could exploit ambiguity and
19:26you do know that you would know know
19:28that if you were to come into my
19:30laboratory and I set up a situation in
19:32which you were rejected by one person or
19:34by many people which would make you feel
19:37worse yes being rejected by many people
19:40would make you feel worse than being
19:41rejected by one oh you're also so smart
19:45how come people in experiments not to
19:47dumb people say like oh Harvard students
19:51how come they don't know this about
19:53themselves very simple experiment we
19:55bring subjects into our laboratory we
19:57create a model business and they want a
19:59job in our model business it involves
20:01tasting ice cream and making up funny
20:03names for it we tell them they have to
20:04do a job interview and that they're
20:06going to be judged by we tell half of
20:08them by a single judge and the other
20:10half by a whole panel of Judges a whole
20:14panel of Judges as long as one of them
20:15likes you you'll get the job but if they
20:17unanimously agree you're too stupid to
20:18taste ice cream why then you don't get
20:20the job with me everybody's applying for
20:22a job and they're getting judged by the
20:24one or by the many we ask them to
20:26predict how they're going to feel if
20:28they don't get the job and then guess
20:29what we do we don't hire any of them we
20:31reject everyone and we measure how they
20:33really feel this is a very short version
20:35of a very long experiment here's what
20:37they predict they predict just what you
20:39would have predicted if I asked for a
20:41show of hands uh I'm sorry uh this is
20:44I'm showing you first the actual data
20:46what they're show what you're seeing
20:47here I'm going to rewind and start my
20:48whole talk
20:50over what I'm showing you here are the
20:52actual data guess what people feel much
20:55better when they are rejected by one
20:57than when they are rejected Ed by many
20:59but here's what they predicted they
21:01predicted they would feel miserable no
21:02matter what when you ask a college
21:04student how will you feel if you don't
21:06get the job they just go bad really bad
21:08rejection sucks it'll hurt what they
21:11don't do is preview that beautiful trick
21:14their brain will play the moment they're
21:16rejected they'll go I didn't get the job
21:18well what does one person know right
21:20exactly flipflop
21:22flipflop the lesson in this study and in
21:25studies like it is this we can't foresee
21:27what will see once we are seeing it I
21:31didn't read that very well we can't
21:32foresee what we will see once we're
21:34seeing it in other words we can't look
21:36ahead and see that we will rationalize
21:39adapt and exploit ambiguity and see the
21:41world differently later than we do now I
21:44don't know of anybody who's ever done a
21:45systematic study of people who've been
21:47left standing at the altar but I'm
21:49willing right now to put a $1,000 of my
21:51money on the follow I'll make the
21:53following prediction if you ask those
21:55people to respond was it the best day of
21:58your life or the worst day of your life
22:00more will say it was the best day of
22:01their life if you ask anybody about to
22:04get married if you get left standing at
22:06the altar today will it be the best day
22:08of your life or the worst day of your
22:09life you will flip that result very
22:12clearly that my friends is what uh
22:14lesson number two is
22:16about answer number three okay this is a
22:19this is what we technically call in
22:20visual psychology a gray bar now if you
22:23look at this bar you'll see it's equally
22:24gray on both sides but I'm going to put
22:26a different colored background behind
22:28behind it keep watching it in zingo
22:30acute optical illusion one end of the
22:32bar looks
22:34dark and the other end of the bar looks
22:37light why well duh your eye is comparing
22:40the foreground to the background and
22:42against a dark background the foreground
22:44looks lighter against the light
22:45background the foreground looks darker
22:48this is called a contrast effect a
22:50simultaneous visual contrast it turns
22:53out that contrast comparing one things
22:56change when you compare them to other
22:57things
22:58is true at every level of our experience
23:02here's one with which you're familiar uh
23:04retailers have known about the contrast
23:06effect uh much longer than psychologists
23:08have and they have used it for well
23:10probably Millennia to Bear you the uh
23:12spare you the undue burden of a heavy
23:14wallet I want you to imagine that you
23:16are coming to my house for dinner uh
23:17your mother raised you right you're
23:19bringing me wine you go to your local
23:21wine shop and these are the wines on
23:22sale they range from I think it says $8
23:25to $51 which one will you buy well study
23:28are very clear we know which one you're
23:29going to buy first of all you're not
23:31going to buy the $8 bottle of wine
23:34because you don't want to look cheap
23:36second you're not going to buy the $51
23:38bottle of wine cuz you are cheap what
23:40you are going to do is buy the $27
23:42bottle of wine that's why your retailer
23:45keeps on hand something he calls an
23:47aspirational item right it's a bottle of
23:50wine that no one in your neighborhood
23:51can afford it sits there it gathers dust
23:53it's supposed to it's never meant to be
23:55sold its only function is to make sure
23:57that when people people who are on their
23:58way to my house come in they buy the $33
24:01bottle rather than the
24:0327 this is simply the contrast effect
24:06it's very clear that 33 looks cheaper in
24:08the context of 147 than it looked in the
24:11context of 51 okay contrast effects also
24:16are a very important part of our
24:17predictions about happiness so these are
24:20real data if you ask people which of
24:22these two jobs getting out of college
24:24which of these two jobs will make you
24:25happier the one where you ear in 100 K
24:28and everybody else earns 110 or the one
24:30where you earn 90k and everyone else
24:32earns 80 and what college students tell
24:34you is I would be happier with the one
24:37where I actually make significantly less
24:39money but I make more money than other
24:43people is that true I mean they're
24:46banking on the they're paying
24:48$10,000 for a contrast effect will they
24:52get it well some studies suggest not and
24:54this is where we're closing in on lesson
24:56number three here's the simplest
24:58experiment any Harvard student ever got
25:00paid five bucks to come to my lab and do
25:02you come to the lab you sit down and
25:05there's a uh tray with some potato chips
25:07on it and you are asked exactly two
25:09questions first predict for me how much
25:12you're going to enjoy eating these
25:13potato chips second they eat them how
25:17much did you enjoy eating these potato
25:18chips third thank you here's your money
25:21go home goodbye that is the whole
25:23experiment now there's one thing we
25:25don't tell them which is that we conduct
25:27this experiment in one of two rooms in
25:30one room there are some items sitting at
25:32the edge of the table that happen to all
25:34be chocolate and if you can't remember
25:36back that far college students like
25:38potato chips but they consider chocolate
25:41to be the single best thing you can put
25:42in your mouth without asking permission
25:44they love chocolate Okay so these people
25:47are making these predictions about
25:49potato chips and eating them while there
25:51is a better food at the far end of the
25:53table in another room what we call the
25:55spam room there are there are items at
25:58the end of the table that college
25:59students say that they hate these are
26:01things like spam sardines uh canned
26:04salmon there's even if you looked
26:06closely at the slide you would see there
26:07is such a thing as can hagus you can get
26:09sheep intestin in a can and by God we've
26:11got a can of it in the lab okay so
26:13here's the question how do these rooms
26:16that they're in affect the predictions
26:18they make and the experiences they have
26:20well look how they affect the
26:21predictions dramatically if you were
26:23asked to predict how much you like
26:25you're going to like potato chips while
26:26you're in a Spam room you say oh God I'm
26:29going to love them and if you asked the
26:30same question in a chocolate room you go
26:32H you know it'll be good but you not not
26:34so much is that true no because once you
26:38put crackly greasy fried salty potato in
26:42your mouth it doesn't matter what you're
26:45not eating right once you are chewing
26:48potato chips you like them or you don't
26:51but you're not going oh man this is so
26:53not
26:54spam go this is really not chocolate no
26:57you're going potato potato potato potato
26:59potato you're enjoying the experience as
27:01much as you will and you are not making
27:04the comparison that you yourself 30
27:07seconds before said you were going to
27:09make it turns out that this is true in
27:12area after area of life we think we are
27:15constantly going to be saying if I marry
27:18her I'll spend my whole life going why
27:19didn't I marry her if I buy this house
27:21I'll always be thinking about the house
27:23I didn't buy and the truth is people
27:26rarely think about the things they
27:28didn't do or didn't happen to them now I
27:31know you're going well maybe some people
27:33don't but I know I do and I'm going to
27:35guess that you're wrong you're suffering
27:37from the refrigerator light illusion you
27:40remember when you were a kid you thought
27:41the refrigerator light was always on
27:43because every time you check it's on the
27:45truth you now know is it's always off
27:47except when you check it turns out that
27:49whenever you ask yourself the question
27:51am I thinking about something other than
27:53what I'm doing right now the answer is
27:54yes yes just now you are now starting to
27:57think about something you're not doing
27:59the problem is nobody's ever keeping
28:01track of all the times you're not
28:02keeping track when psychologists keep
28:05track of how often you have thoughts
28:07like I could have had a V8 it turns out
28:09it's almost never a few of you at some
28:12point in this talk have already said I
28:13could have been watching the parade but
28:16you probably thought it once for a
28:17moment and then came right back to me
28:19many of you have never left very few of
28:22you have spent the whole time going I
28:24don't know he's not mine Albright he's
28:25just not mine Albright it's just not
28:26mine Albright
28:28okay the point is that we are in the
28:31here and now a lot more than we realize
28:33in the future we're going to be living
28:35in the present we will not be looking
28:37back so much on our
28:40past okay so the last answer has nothing
28:44to do with imagination because I have
28:46talked as though we are this guy staring
28:47into a crystal ball it is our duty to
28:51somehow close our eyes and use this new
28:53part of our brain to figure out what we
28:54will like how happy we'll be but that
28:57ignores the fact that every one of us
28:59lives in a society we are surrounded by
29:01grandmothers and rabbis and uncles and
29:03deer abies and taxi drivers and
29:05bartenders all sorts of people who are
29:08very happy to do the imagining for us
29:10and tell us exactly where happiness is
29:12to be found we are the inheritors of
29:15huge amounts of cultural wisdom about
29:18happiness even if you didn't have a
29:19frontal lobe you'd know the things that
29:21are supposed to make you happy cuz your
29:23mother would have told you are the
29:26things that are culture Whispers in our
29:28ear about the sources of Happiness right
29:30or are they wrong well it turns out over
29:32the last decade or two psychologists
29:34economists and neuroscientists have been
29:36trying to find out the validity of our
29:38culture of wisdom and I thought I would
29:40just give you a few highlights uh of
29:42what those studies
29:44show this is my mom and my mom probably
29:48like a lot of your moms told you that
29:50there were at least three important
29:52things if you wanted to be happy they
29:54were marriage money and children now she
29:56didn't give me the bullet list she said
29:57something more like you really should
30:00find a nice girl and settle down it
30:02wouldn't hurt if she was Jewish you
30:04really should find a good job you like
30:06it wouldn't hurt if you were comfortable
30:08and you should really have children it
30:10wouldn't hurt if it was soon okay I
30:12don't know you probably had a mother who
30:14said basically these things to you was
30:17my mom right about any of this all of
30:19this some of this the answer turns out
30:21is yes let me start at the beginning
30:24with marriage so how many people here
30:26think that Mar marriage has been
30:27established to be a cause of
30:31Happiness okay I see a man who's raising
30:34his wife is raising his
30:37hand okay either most of you are scared
30:40or most of you are just wrong because it
30:41turns out marriage is an extremely good
30:44predictor of Happiness married people
30:46are much happier than unmarried people
30:48and by unmarried I don't just mean not
30:50yet married but uh you know divorced
30:52widowed single living together all of
30:55those uh uh groups are not as happy as
30:58married people and why should they be
31:00because on anything you could measure
31:01that you would think would be related to
31:03happiness married people win they make
31:05more money per capita they are healthier
31:08they eat better they have sex more often
31:11they enjoy it more yes they enjoy it
31:14more now I see head shaking
31:19F you should not do that not in public
31:23um it turns out one Economist recently
31:24computed did Shadow pricing and computed
31:27how much more money you would have to
31:28earn every year to equal the happiness
31:30you get from being married the answer is
31:32$100,000 for the average person who
31:34makes less than
31:35$100,000 this is a big big benefit I
31:38should say by the way that marriage
31:40turns out to be a much better uh uh
31:42predictor of happiness for men than for
31:45women everybody gets something out of
31:46marriage men really get something out of
31:48marriage which you know conflicts with
31:49the idea that they get dragged to the
31:51altar kicking and screaming and then
31:52they get almost all the good um now what
31:55you might say is yeah but these these
31:57kinds of data we can't tell if Happ if
31:59marriage makes you happy or happiness
32:01makes you married right it might be the
32:02happy people do better on the marriage
32:04Market guess what they do but both of
32:06these things are true we know like
32:08looking at longitudinal data if you
32:10follow the same people over time and you
32:12look at their happiness before and after
32:14wedding what do you see as they're
32:16getting close to the wedding they're
32:17going oh wedding wedding wedding happy
32:19happy happy they're getting happier and
32:20happier they get married they have a
32:22honeymoon and then their happiness
32:24starts to retreat but what it doesn't do
32:26is go back back to where they were
32:28before they even planned to get married
32:31so marriage it seems my mom was right
32:33about does seem to be a cause of
32:35Happiness what about money my mother
32:38wasn't particularly materialistic but
32:39she just didn't think it would hurt to
32:41be comfortable was she right well
32:44there's a lot of data on happiness and
32:47wealth and there are two facts that seem
32:49very very robust that seem to come out
32:52no matter how you measure it and they
32:53are these the first is the fact that
32:55economists refer to as dimin diminishing
32:57marginal utility which for the rest of
32:59us simply means a little money matters a
33:01lot and a lot of money matters a little
33:04the first dollar you earn is going to
33:05make a big big difference the next
33:07dollar just a little less and by the
33:08time you are earning your millionth
33:10dollar it's just not mattering much now
33:13note the curve never goes down it
33:15doesn't look like oops I hit the point
33:17where I've got too damn much money but
33:19what does happen is very soon earning
33:22more dollars isn't giving you much of a
33:25boost what is this inflection point
33:27there's arguments about it some people
33:28think it's as high as$ 100,000 a year
33:30some as low as $40,000 a year it's
33:33nowhere near what you might have
33:35imagined being millions of dollars per
33:37year so now an economist who I once
33:41showed this graph to an economist he
33:42said you know it always occurred to me
33:44that if money doesn't make you happy
33:45you're just not spending it right that
33:46actually may be true it might not be an
33:49inviable law of nature that the curve
33:51has to go like that it might just be
33:53that people who are accumulating huge
33:54amounts of wealth are not doing with it
33:56what they could do with it to make
33:58themselves happier so a nice example
34:00almost everybody who starts to make a
34:01lot of money moves out of a city and
34:03buys a big house error error people
34:07adapt very quickly to the square footage
34:09of their house a bigger house makes you
34:10happy for about a minute commuting makes
34:13you unhappy every day because it's a new
34:16different kind of Hell commuting is a
34:19very negative negative coret of
34:21Happiness do not trade a mile for
34:24another square foot it's almost always a
34:26bad deal but when people get up on that
34:28curve that's exactly what they do what
34:30else do they do well they keep their
34:32money and studies show that in fact
34:35people can get a lot more happiness from
34:37spending it on others than spending it
34:39on themselves simple this just came out
34:41in science this year a beautiful little
34:42study you bring students into the
34:44laboratory you hand them 20 bucks and
34:45you go go outside go out and spend this
34:47come back in an hour half of them you
34:49say buy yourself something nice the
34:50others you have to give it away you
34:52measure how happy they are when they
34:53come back it's a wildly big effect the
34:55people who gave it away are just beaming
34:57I gave $20 to this guy was really great
34:59he looked at me and he smiled so
35:01fantastic other people went yeah I got a
35:03I got a new pen it's cool right so we
35:06may be doing the wrong things with money
35:08now I told you there were two facts
35:10about money to know the first is that uh
35:12little buys you a lot and a lot buys you
35:14a little the second fact about money
35:16that we know is nicely illustrated by
35:17these data here's real income in the
35:19United States over 30 years you all know
35:21this Americans have gotten richer and
35:23richer in real dollars here's happiness
35:25over 30 years nada nothing has changed
35:28now if money buys you some happiness
35:31shouldn't that line at least be going up
35:33well it turns out it's not absolute
35:35dollars that makes people happy it's
35:37relative dollars it's not how one
35:40Economist put it nicely the best
35:42predictor of a man's happiness is not
35:43his salary it's his salary divided by
35:45his brother-in-law's salary yes it's not
35:49how much money you are making it's how
35:50much more money you are making than
35:52other people relative dollars are the
35:55better predictor of happiness what this
35:57suggests is that we are all on a
35:59treadmill that is every time all of us
36:01get a dollar it makes no difference
36:03because we're in the same position I'm
36:04running after the guy who makes just a
36:06little bit more than me wishing for what
36:08he had and every time I get $100,000
36:10extra then so does he and damn it I'm in
36:12the same darn place so the suggestion I
36:15guess from these data is that probably
36:17you should start hanging out with poorer
36:21people okay so last children well this
36:23is an easy one right what do we call
36:25children we refer to them as a bundle of
36:27joy and if you look at the data the data
36:29are very very clear people with children
36:31are much less happy than people with
36:33them now this is an accumulation I want
36:36you to know this is not a study I did in
36:38my lab we're talking about uh Great
36:41Britain panel survey we're talking about
36:42almost all of the data economists and
36:44sociologists have plowed through in
36:46America Canada Western Europe over the
36:48last 25 years in study after study you
36:51see that either children have no effect
36:54or they have a small negative effect I
36:56do not know of a single study showing
36:59that people with children are happier
37:01than people without them now one
37:05possibility you might say is but maybe
37:07happy people just don't have kids right
37:09people who are really just so delighted
37:11with life and themselves they go off and
37:13they play and so it might be that people
37:15are sorting themselves into these
37:17categories based on their happiness well
37:19first of all wouldn't it be a little odd
37:21that they choose to be parents but
37:22they're more miserable when their
37:24children are little than when they're
37:25big those are both groups of people but
37:27anyway here's the way you test that
37:28hypothesis you look at longitudinal data
37:30here are longitudinal data these are
37:32that is these are the same people
37:34followed over time before and after the
37:36birth of their child now just to give my
37:38mom a moment here's what she predicts my
37:40mom says you go along in life it's fine
37:42and then you have a child like you and
37:44everything's better and it stays better
37:46was my mom right well my mom sure was
37:48right about some of it until she was
37:50wrong those are what longitudinal data
37:52on happiness look like people are pretty
37:55happy and they really look forward to
37:57the baby and then the baby comes and
37:59happiness
38:00plummets I'll give you just one more
38:02piece of data CU I know these are hard
38:03data to believe this is a study
38:05published about two years ago in science
38:07the really the very best scientific
38:08journal in the world uh published by a
38:11Nobel laurate and uh in this study about
38:15a thousand women are followed around
38:17electronically as they go about their
38:19day and the researchers collect two
38:20pieces of data one how happy are they at
38:23different moments in their day and two
38:25what are they doing in this allows the
38:27researchers to say how happy are women
38:29when they're doing this and how happy
38:30are they when they're doing that and
38:32here's some of the things that women are
38:33doing when they report being very happy
38:35when they happen to be talking to their
38:36friends or they happen to be eating okay
38:39sources of pleasure here they're less
38:40happy when they're grocery shopping and
38:42really not very happy when they're doing
38:43housework so this is the question how
38:46happy are they when they're with their
38:47children well it turns out that they're
38:49pretty um about somewhere near vacuuming
38:53that's right that's right they are less
38:55happy when they with their kids in any
38:57shape way or form than when they're
38:59shopping for groceries okay now we laugh
39:03I I see you're amused by this but I know
39:06in your heart of hearts you don't
39:07believe it because most of you are
39:09parents and you are thinking to yourself
39:11my children are my greatest source of
39:12joy and so before I totally explode your
39:15myth I just want to go on record as
39:17saying I am related to this other ball
39:19looking guy here that is my son he is
39:22one of my greatest sources of joy and I
39:24only say one of because now I've got two
39:26grandchildren who are even greater
39:27sources of Joy CU they're twice as cute
39:29and much less work for
39:31me I don't hate kids I love kids I I
39:34have a kid but what we know is that
39:37science asks us to believe things that
39:39conflict with our intuition right I
39:41don't see a black hole I cannot see
39:43gravity what are you talking about germs
39:45show me germs science tells us that
39:48sometimes our eyes fool us and our
39:49intuitions are wrong when science gives
39:52you data that says your intuitions are
39:54wrong you don't say well let's find some
39:56data that support my intuitions you say
39:58why aren't well if you worked in the
40:00Bush Administration that is what you do
40:01but otherwise you say otherwise you say
40:05how can I make sense of the fact that
40:07the data tell me a truth about the world
40:09that doesn't seem to be the way it feels
40:12I think it is incumbent on us not just
40:14to say children don't seem to be a
40:16source of happiness but to explain why
40:18every one of us thinks that's just
40:20absurd I have three hypothesis about why
40:23we all believe something that data
40:25suggests our wrong this is the view
40:27these data I've given you are the view
40:29of Happiness from outer
40:31space Here's my three
40:36answers I think
40:38that the reason we all believe that
40:41children are a great source of Happiness
40:43when the data say
40:44otherwise uh are Armani Soxs heroin and
40:47baseball let me explain Armani Soxs now
40:51I don't know if anyone here this is
40:52actually a crowd where we might have
40:53somebody wearing our M socks so forgive
40:55me if you're that person
40:57but if you were to go buy a pair of
41:00Armani socks almost surely sometime in
41:02the next 2 weeks you will be telling
41:04somebody how great they are go oh my God
41:06you I know they're 250 bucks a pair but
41:08you've never walked on a cloud like you
41:10walk on with these things feel like
41:12dancing I feel like skipping you will be
41:14telling others how great they are now it
41:16could be because arm Soxs are great but
41:19it could be because you just paid a lot
41:21of money for them that's right basic law
41:22of Economics we pay a lot of money when
41:24things are valuable basic law psychology
41:26we value things a lot when we pay a lot
41:28of money for them the more we pay for
41:30them the more we value them the more
41:32people suffer for anything the more
41:34valuable it is the more they love it gee
41:36what does that sound like yes it sounds
41:39like raising children we give them our
41:41hearts we give them our blood our sweat
41:44and our tears what kinds of morons would
41:46we be if they weren't making us happy of
41:49course they must make me happy why would
41:51I be doing this giving up all that other
41:54stuff if they weren't one reason I think
41:57we believe that our children are a great
41:59source of happiness and joy is that we'd
42:01be very foolish to have had them we
42:03think if they
42:05aren't second heroin now everybody knows
42:08that heroin is a great source of human
42:10misery wrong it isn't heroin is actually
42:12a great source of Joy anybody ever had a
42:15narcotic surely you've probably not
42:17illegally but you've been in the
42:19hospital right the lumbar went out and
42:20they gave you the morphine and you went
42:22never let it stop God yes that because
42:26heroin is actually a huge source of
42:29pleasure and joy the reason it creates
42:32human misery isn't because heroin makes
42:34you feel bad it's because it makes you
42:36feel so good that you give up every
42:39other source of pleasure you stop
42:41washing bathing brushing your teeth you
42:42don't go to work you give up your family
42:44you just basically walk around trying to
42:46get more heroin the problem with Heroin
42:49isn't it makes you feel sad it's that it
42:51makes you feel so good that it crowds
42:53out every other source of joy and
42:55thereby lower is your average happiness
42:57what does that sound like yes it sounds
43:01like children it's not that children are
43:03when you see your child you think I'm
43:05not having a good time it's that
43:07children require so much particularly at
43:09certain points in their life cycle that
43:11they crowd out all the other Pleasures
43:12yes I've got a baby I no longer have sex
43:15with my spouse I don't see a play I
43:16don't go to a restaurant I can barely
43:18find time to and you name it so when
43:20people say Professor Gilbert you don't
43:22know what you're talking about my
43:23child's my greatest source of Joy I say
43:25yes when you have one your greatest
43:27that's right and that's what Parenthood
43:29is okay it's not you know I guess what
43:33I'm saying is that even if the company
43:35of a child was nothing but a joy they
43:37require so much company that's really
43:40the point okay third uh oh no I I want
43:43to make one more point about heroin uh
43:45so I say that um I've said that they
43:47crowd out other sources of Joy I already
43:49showed you marriage is a huge source of
43:50happiness in people's lives this is
43:52marital satisfaction over the lifespan
43:54you're looking at thousands of data
43:55points this is a very typical finding
43:57people start out getting married and
43:59they're happy because that's why they
44:01got married in the first place and then
44:02it basically just goes to hell and
44:05marital happiness goes down down down
44:06down as they have children as the
44:08children are growing up and then it
44:09starts to recover why well if you could
44:11get close enough to that slide you'd see
44:13the children are leaving home my father
44:15is a biologist and he uh you know he's
44:17always asked as a biologist whenever he
44:19discusses the issue of human abortion
44:21he's asked Professor Gilbert where does
44:23when does life really begin and he says
44:25you know when the dog dies and the kids
44:26leave home that's his standard joke but
44:28actually I don't know about the dog
44:29dying but it turns out to be true of of
44:31the children leaving people report some
44:33of the greatest happiness in their life
44:35when they're empty you know the only
44:36known symptom of empty nest syndrome was
44:38made up by journalists right it's not a
44:41DSM category the only known symptom is
44:43smiling people are going yeah yeah kids
44:46are out it's really rough yeah okay um
44:52there is I I should say though there's a
44:54little bit of controversy about this
44:55line some data don't show as much
44:57recovery as this sorry
45:01okay uh yes so they crowd out okay the
45:03last point I wanted to make was about
45:05baseball uh so I grew up in Chicago I'm
45:07a big Cubs fan I live in Boston I love
45:10the Red Sox and if I were to go watch
45:12the Red Sox play the Yankees and it was
45:16a no hitter and then in the bottom of
45:18the ninth uas comes to bat and hits a
45:21home run and we win the game against
45:24those bastards
45:26if you asked me how was that game I
45:29would say it was amazing that actually
45:31isn't right a no hitter is like watching
45:34grass grow it's the most boring thing
45:36you can do in a baseball park you will
45:38be eating hot dogs and reading the
45:39schedule
45:40backwards the reason I will think this
45:43was an amazing game is because it had an
45:46amazing moment and it turns out when you
45:49do research on human memory people
45:51remember episodes by Peak moments what
45:55I'm remembering ing is that fantastic 30
45:58seconds of the game and I'm forgetting
46:00the 3 hours of hell what does that sound
46:04like yes it's that's a day with a
46:065-year-old isn't it no not yet not now
46:09we'll be there soon I already told you
46:11don't hit your brother and then just
46:13when you think you know there's no hits
46:15just when that they the four-year-old
46:17looks up and goes I wub you
46:20Daddy home run home run of the heart a
46:23Transcendent moment that when you look
46:25back on it and you're tucking them in
46:27and go wasn't it a great day no actually
46:29if a psychologist had been following you
46:31they'd say you had 30 really good
46:33seconds the rest was not so good you
46:35can't really call that a good day but
46:37memory is a wonderful thing so in a
46:40sense children may not make us happy
46:43often but when they make us happy they
46:45may give us a Transcendent kind of
46:47happiness that almost acts as an
46:48amnestic right it almost wipes out our
46:50memory for all the moments of
46:53drudgery that's the view of Happiness
46:55from from outer space that's what we
46:57know from looking at data on human
46:58beings now if my mom were here first of
47:00all she would have left long ago but if
47:03I gave her a chance I said Mom ask some
47:05questions she would have said a few
47:06things first she would have said okay Mr
47:09Smarty Pants if having them is bad let
47:11me tell you this not having them is
47:12worse my mom might be right the data
47:14don't rule out this possibility here are
47:16data I showed you from RE I showed you
47:18this curve these are real people
47:20building up to having a baby and then
47:21they have it and their happiness goes
47:23down but it might be and we don't have
47:25these kinds of data here are
47:26hypothetical people who wanted kids but
47:28didn't get them it might be that they're
47:30less happy yes it might be children are
47:32hard work but we all want them by and
47:34large almost everybody does and they
47:37take a little of the joy out of life but
47:39not getting them would be worse nothing
47:41I've said is a prescription that says I
47:43guess I shouldn't have kids because we
47:45don't know what that yellow line really
47:47looks like my mother also would have
47:50reminded us that if children don't make
47:52you happy it might be your fault not
47:53theirs right it's easy to hear these
47:55data and go wow little I
47:57wonder why did I right maybe they are
48:00great potential sources of joy and as
48:02parents we somehow screw it up we
48:05somehow don't get all the joy out of
48:07them that we might remember what the
48:09economist said about dollars if they're
48:10not making you happy you're spending it
48:12wrong well maybe if your children aren't
48:14making you happy you're parenting them
48:16wrong maybe you're doing things like
48:18your way up on that dollar curve and
48:19you're chasing a few more in Sp instead
48:21of spending time with kids in they in a
48:24way that actually could bring you sad
48:25satisfaction it sounds a little bit like
48:27I'm preaching here we don't know if
48:29that's true but my mom could be right
48:31that it's potentially true finally my
48:33mother would say you know life is about
48:35more than happiness now we could have a
48:36long discussion about this I actually
48:38think she's wrong I don't think it's
48:39about more than happiness I think that's
48:41exactly what it's about but here's the
48:43point science can't tell us whether life
48:45should be or shouldn't be about
48:46happiness that's not a factual question
48:49that's a moral question maybe the fact
48:51that children don't make us happy and
48:53that we have them anyway says something
48:56wonderful about it maybe that's actually
48:58our most noble trait that we're willing
49:00to sacrifice a little of our happiness
49:01to do something that we think brings
49:03meaning and is important the fourth
49:06lesson your mother doesn't know
49:07everything that's part of why you
49:09mispredict the future so I've talked to
49:12you about four answers I've given you
49:13four reasons why human beings don't
49:15always do a splendid job of knowing
49:17where their happiness lies of making the
49:19pursuit of happiness one that they can
49:20actually achieve it's because we what we
49:22don't imagine matters more than we
49:24imagine it does because we can't foresee
49:26what we will see once we're seeing it
49:27because in the future we'll live in the
49:29present and because your mother doesn't
49:31know everything now when somebody stands
49:33up here for 45 minutes or an hour I've
49:35lost count I'm sorry and basically shows
49:37you all the ways in which people make
49:39mistakes it has to occur to you yeah
49:41okay fine if we're all stupid how do we
49:43get to the moon well I do study mistakes
49:45I study the mistakes people make and
49:46it's a fair enough question are people
49:48really hopelessly uh naive are people
49:51really stupid of course we're not stupid
49:53it's just that we're designed to pursue
49:55happiness we're not designed to find it
49:58nature doesn't give a damn if you're
50:00happy nature cares if you survive and
50:03reproduce if that means that if you want
50:06happiness you suddenly have to you
50:08somehow have to outmaneuver the survival
50:10and reproduction machine that is the
50:12three PB meatloaf between your ears you
50:15have to come to understand what it is
50:17for what it does well and what it does
50:20badly you have to become skeptical of
50:22the things that it tells you I always
50:26loved this line the comedian emo
50:27Phillips he saidou know I always thought
50:29the brain was the most amazing organ in
50:31the human body and then I thought wait
50:33who's telling me that yes
50:37exactly I really do think though that by
50:41understanding understanding how What
50:43happiness is but also understanding how
50:45we predict and mispredict it we do give
50:48ourselves the best chance of not
50:50stumbling upon not stumbling on
50:53happiness but stumbling upon it I think
50:56my time should be up I'm certainly out
50:57of ideas and this is an idea Fest so
50:59I'll stop there thank
51:03you