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Master Institutional Supply and Demand Trading (ULTIMATE STRATEGY GUIDE)

Matt Donlevey - Photon Trading · 3,741 words · 18 min read

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Intro

0:00if you can Master supply and demand you

0:02will be able to trade with the large

0:03institutions find big risk for all

0:05trades and Bank consistent profits in

0:07this video I'm going to share some vital

0:09points about institutional Supply

0:10demands that most people simply don't

0:13know and it's these critical points that

0:14have now helped countless of our members

0:16get funded and Bank their first ever

0:18profit splits this video explains what

0:20is supply and demand how to read

0:22institutional order flow how to

0:23mechanically draw the zones how to find

0:25high probability institutional zones and

0:27I'm going to drop some serious source

0:29for you here and finally how to enter

0:31and exit for maximum profit but first to

0:34take advantage of the market you must

0:36understand the true reasons as to why

0:38price moves does the price fall from

0:40here to there because there are more

0:42sellers than buyers nope this is wrong

0:44keep watching to find the truth now as

How Markets Move

0:46history has repeatedly shown Traders are

0:49often a very emotionally charged group

0:51when millions of them get together in a

0:53highly emotional money game of fear

0:55greed and uncertainty their combined

0:57Behavior takes on a herd mentality and

0:59we can spot this on our price charts and

1:01make money from it how well you've got

1:04millions of Market participants putting

1:06millions of orders through the market

1:07for a million different reasons all of

1:10this behavior and participation is what

1:12drives the order flow that is put

1:13through the market and that order flow

1:15is what prints price action on our

1:17charts and that price action creates

1:19patterns these patterns repeat

1:21themselves over and over time and time

1:23again and that allows us to make high

1:25probability forecasts of where price may

1:27move in the future because when those

1:29big institutions enter trades they

1:31cannot hide their order flow and we can

1:33spot their footprints in the market if

1:35you know what to look for let me explain

1:37currency exchange rates move up and down

1:39as a result of supply and demand from

1:41Market speculators no trades can take

1:44place unless both the buyer and the

1:46seller agree on a price so this drives

1:48the price of currency pairs where buyers

1:50bring with them demand for the pair

1:52applying that upward pressure on prices

1:53while sellers bring Supply applying

1:56downward pressure on prices the market

1:58runs like a continuous auction

1:59throughout the day with buyers and

2:01sellers competing with each other to get

2:02the best possible price now in a perfect

2:05and free market this would be quite a

2:07smooth and fair process but in the final

2:09financial markets this is often a heavy

2:12manipulated process let me explain

How To Read Orderflow

2:14markets work in two-way auctions both

2:16buy and sell sides of liquid instruments

2:18or have blocks of orders on both the bid

2:20and the offers we can see this

2:22visualized on the order book on the left

2:24hand side you can see all of the bids

2:25from the buyers and this shows how much

2:27volume is demanded at each price level

2:29and then on the right hand side you can

2:31see all of the offers from the sellers

2:32as this is also called the ask price and

2:35this shows how much volume is supplied

2:37at each price level and the more volume

2:39that there is at each price level the

2:40more liquid the market is think of it

2:42like an auction house or Ebay where if

2:45you are the buyer then you are making

2:46bids for it and you either sell it it's

2:48the price you're offering it or the

2:50price you're asking for someone to pay

2:52for it now remember a trade can only

2:54take place if both the buyer and the

2:56seller agree on a price so to execute an

2:58order it must be paired with an opposite

3:01order of equal size for example so sell

3:0310 Lots there must be a buyer willing to

3:05buy them at the ask price and vice versa

3:08this is how the markets move now what

3:10most people don't know is that there are

3:12two types of orders where both buyers

3:14and sellers can be passive or aggressive

3:16passive Traders use limit orders and

3:19they are waiting for price to hit them

3:20so all of these orders that you see on

3:22the bid and the ask they are limit

3:24orders so if they were only passive

3:26orders then the market wouldn't move

3:28because all of those orders are waiting

3:30to be hit so this is where aggressive

3:32orders come into play aggressive buyers

3:34and sellers they are trading at the

3:35current market price and they are not

3:37waiting for the market to come to them

3:39but to do that they have to cross the

3:41spread to buy at the ask price or cross

3:43the spread to sell at the bid price most

3:45execution platforms look like this where

3:47you buy on the right hand side as that

3:49is the current ask price and you must

3:51cross that spread to be an aggressive

3:53buyer and if you want to sell then you

3:55must cross the spread to the left to hit

3:56the bid and it's this interplay between

3:58passive and aggressive orders is what we

4:00call order flow so let's take a look at

Orderflow Example

4:03a very oversimplified example of what

4:05can happen on the order book in a live

4:07market imagine this was the order book

4:09for euro dollar and a large institution

4:11wants to buy 10 000 Lots at Market so

4:14this is an aggressive order they have to

4:16buy 10 000 Lots at the best ask price

4:19but as you can see there are only 103

4:22lots available for sale at that current

4:24ask price so the price will rapidly

4:27shoot up as it instantly absorbs all of

4:29the supply at each level until all 10

4:32000 lots have been filled at 1.1539 due

4:36to that huge imbalance between supply

4:37and demand and now the market is sitting

4:40at what is deemed to be fair value

4:42between buyers and sellers so price has

4:44to keep moving up to search for enough

4:46liquidity to fill the order institutions

4:48cannot hide those huge imbalances that

4:51they cause in the market so if you know

4:53how to spot their footprints on a chart

4:54then you can trade with their order flow

4:56rather than getting smashed against it

4:58so what does this look like on a

5:00Candlestick chart here you can see price

5:01impulsively moving to the upside as

5:04aggressive buyers keep pushing price

5:05higher and higher until they find enough

5:07Supply to fill their demand and price is

5:10then rebalanced likewise here you can

5:12see aggressive sellers liquidating all

5:14of these bids pushing the price lower

5:15and lower until they have consumed

5:17enough demand to fill their supply and

5:20this is how markets move when there is

5:22an overwhelming imbalance between supply

5:23and demand price will keep moving to

5:26search for new liquidity to rebound its

5:28price and this is happening every single

5:30second that the markets are open now

5:32obviously you and me were not quite

5:34trading at the size big enough yet to

5:35move those big liquid markets so how do

5:38we make sure that we are trading on the

5:39right side of that institutional order

Identifying Supply & Demand Zones

5:41flow and that's where supply and demand

5:42zones come into play but how do we

5:44identify these zones when prices moving

5:46sideways in a Range this is where orders

5:48are being accumulated or distributed as

5:51price moves into the bottom half of the

5:53range this is where buyers step in to

5:55buy at discount cheap prices and then as

5:57price moves into the top half of the

5:58range sellers step in to short at

6:01premium expensive prices you want to buy

6:03low and sell high right pretty simple

6:05eventually aggressive buyers will cause

6:07an overwhelming imbalance between Supply

6:09on demand and this is where price will

6:11rapidly break out the range to the

6:13upside to search for more liquidity to

6:15absorb the demand and this is what

6:17creates those demand zones now we don't

6:19trade the initial breakout as this is

6:21where losing Traders fomo into long

6:23positions and they buy the highs instead

6:25we wait for price to return to that zone

6:28and then we look for our entry models to

6:30get long as this is where the wrist

6:31reward will be on our side and we are

6:34buying where the institutions will be

6:35now why does price return to the zone

6:37and then continue from there well at

6:39this level there is not enough demand to

6:42keep pushing price higher so we wait for

6:44price to return to the demand Zone where

6:46there is previous institutional buyers

6:47they will have a vested interest to make

6:50sure that price does not trade any lower

6:51and they keep their initial long

6:53positions in profit and it's also likely

6:56that they did not get filled on all of

6:58their original position so they will

6:59want to get along with their remaining

7:01orders at these discounted prices

7:03because remember they're going to want

7:04to buy as cheaply as possible now there

7:07are some other theories but we won't get

7:09into those in this video and the exact

7:11opposite happens in the creation of

7:12Supply zones where prices in a Range

7:14sellers will then cause an overwhelming

7:16imbalance between supply and demand as

7:18price will rapidly break up to the

7:20downside but again we will wait for

7:22price to pull back to that Supply Zone

7:24to then look for potential shorting

7:26opportunities and it's a four-step

7:28process where we have the range the

7:30initiation the mitigation and the

7:32continuation and it's that continuation

7:34is what we are looking to trade in line

7:37with the institutional order flow this

7:39is the cycle and heartbeat of the market

7:41where order flow will continue in One

7:43Direction until there is an overwhelming

7:45imbalance between supply and demand in

7:47the opposite direction price is

7:49constantly seeking liquidity to

Orderflow Chart example

7:50rebalance price so here you can see

7:52price rapidly initiates out of the range

7:54to the downside creating a supply Zone

7:56it's likely this was backed by

7:58institutional involvement price then

8:00pulls back to mitigate the supply Zone

8:01where we can look to get short to catch

8:03the continuation you can see the sustain

8:05bearish order flow as Supply is clearly

8:07in control but markets are obviously

8:10don't move in One Direction Forever

8:11eventually the market moves low enough

8:13to discount prices where demand then

8:15comes into the market to overpower

8:17Supply then we see the sustained bullish

8:19order flow and institutions will defend

8:22the last levels that they entered at to

8:23keep their running positions in profit

8:25the highest probability trades will

8:27always be in line with autoflow so just

8:29don't bother trying to fight it so how

How To Draw S&D Zones

8:31do we mechanically draw supply and

8:33demand zones in the same way every

8:35single time there are three types of

8:37supply and demand zones the first two

8:39are the ones that I recommend you use

8:40these are range and pivot zones the

8:43names are pretty self-explanatory a

8:45range created zone is where price

8:46clearly initiates out of a range of

8:48candles you draw the Zone from the top

8:50to the bottom of the range a pivot zone

8:52is where there is a pivot in price

8:54caused by only one or two candles you

8:56can draw this from the single candle

8:58that is engulfed or you can include the

9:00second candle too depending on how

9:02refined you want to be for a supply Zone

9:04it's usually a bullish candle where the

9:06next thrust candle closes below its low

9:08this can be called a buy to sell zone

9:11for demand it's usually a bearish candle

9:13where the next thrust candle closes

9:15above its high and this can be called a

9:17cell to buy zone now I'm not personally

9:19that strict on the cell to buy or buy to

9:21sell method because sometimes I will

9:23draw a demand Zone on a Buddhist candle

9:25that's then engulfed by another bullish

9:27candle and vice versa because I'm just

9:29looking for those pivot Points in price

9:30you know where price has sort of paused

9:32and is moving sideways and then price

9:33clearly initiates out the range but for

9:37a demand Zone that thrust candle must

9:39close above the previous candle's high

9:41and for a supply Zone the thrust candle

9:43must close below the previous candles

9:45low for it to be a valid Supply Zone and

9:48you can see how a range Zone can be

9:50refined to a pivot zone or even a

9:51fractal Zone which is just the wick

9:53however more refinement does lead to

9:55increased accuracy giving you that

9:57smaller stop loss which in turn gives

9:59you that higher risk reward but it does

10:01increase the probability of more

10:03mistrates as price might not tag you

10:05into the position once enough orders

10:07have been filled find a consistent

10:09balance that works for you and stick to

10:11it so your Edge can play out in the long

10:13run you know don't be chopping and

10:14changing just because you feel like it I

10:16recommend that you start with always

10:18looking to take the single candle pivot

10:20as this gives the best balance between

10:21risk's reward and also getting entered

10:24into enough positions now remember that

10:26the market is made up of all of those

10:28orders transacting with each other but

10:30we make sense of that complicated order

10:31flow with our Candlestick charts if you

10:34see a range Creator Zone on one time

10:36frame this will be a pivot Zone on a

10:38higher time frame so if you see this

10:40range Creator Zone on let's say the one

10:42hour chart the zone is made up of four

10:44candles but if you go up to the four

10:46hour chart what do you think that zone

10:48is going to look like you guessed it it

10:50will be a single candle four hour pivot

10:53Zone because for one hour candles are

10:56going to make up one for our candle so

10:58when you truly understand the fractal

11:00nature of markets you don't even need to

11:02change time frames to be able to

11:03visualize what price action will look

11:05like on that other time frame so that's

11:07why a lower time frame range will be a

11:09higher time frame pivot Zone and vice

Fractal Refinements

11:11versa here are three types of fractal

11:13supply and demand zones the first is an

11:14inside bar this is when a candle fails

11:17to break the previous candles high and

11:18low and it trades inside of it inside

11:20bars are a range on a lower time frame

11:22the second type of fractal zone is sell

11:25to buy or buy to sell wixoms foreign

11:28when price is bullish and moving to the

11:30upside it looks like there isn't a

11:32demand Zone because price doesn't form a

11:34pullback on that time frame but those

11:35Wicks represent a pullback on a lower

11:37time frame as you can see price moves to

11:39the upside then it pulls back as the

11:41next candle starts to form and then

11:43pushes up again so if you were to look

11:45down on the lower time frame this will

11:47be a lower time frame pivot or range

11:49created demand and the exact opposite

11:51happens for buy to sell Wick zones which

11:53represent lower time frame Supply the

11:55third type of fractal zone is where you

11:57have a very large width and instead of

11:58drawing the big pivot Zone you can

12:00refine it to just the wick of the candle

12:02as this will be a lower time frame pivot

12:04or range zone now as all of those are

12:06fractal refinements they are simply a

12:08way of looking at lower time frame zones

12:10on your time frame so I would actually

12:12recommend that you kind of ignore those

12:14for now and you just concentrate on the

12:16pivot and range zones on that same time

12:18frame that you're looking at because

12:20those will contain the most orders and

12:22therefore should give you those higher

12:24probability moves now obviously not all

How To Find Institutional Zones

12:26Supply demand zones are created equal

12:28there are very specific criteria that

12:31must be met for it to be an

12:33Institutional supply and demand Zone

12:34there are eight key areas for us to

12:36focus on and the first is whether the

12:38Zone led to a break of structure this is

12:40the simplest and most effective filter

12:42that you can use it takes a ton of money

12:44to break structure on a liquid

12:45instrument and the more significant that

12:47the structure it breaks the more

12:49significant The Zone swing structure is

12:51stronger than internal which is stronger

12:53than fractal so zones that cause a break

12:55of spring structure they're going to be

12:57the most likely ones to cause the next

12:58break of Swing structure here you can

13:00see this demand Zone broke the daily

13:02swing high so then when price returns to

13:04Zone there is enough demand within there

13:06to break the neck swing High number two

13:08is if it is a flip zone now the key here

13:11is that you must see that interaction

13:13between supply and demand until one

13:15overpowers the other here you can see

13:16supplier was in control but when price

13:18returns to it Supply tries to make a

13:21lower low but it fails to do its job

13:23because huge demand steps into the

13:25market to overpower it that pattern that

13:27shows us that supply has now flipped to

13:29demand and this is a high probability

13:31area for us to get lots but remember you

13:34must see that interaction first for it

13:36to be valid number three are sweep zones

13:38these are zones where liquidity is swept

13:40and taken as they are created but why is

13:43this important well remember

13:44institutions need opposing liquidity for

13:47them to trade against so that they can

13:49get minimal slippage when they enter and

13:51exit the market so if they're buying

13:52they need a lot of Supply to buy against

13:54there will be a lot of sell orders below

13:57this low and that's generated from

13:59people's stop losses from early buyers

14:00and then breakout traders who are trying

14:02to sell that low but the institutions

14:04know this and they will use that cell

14:06size liquidity behind that low in order

14:08to get long so if you see a sweep Zone

14:10this signals it was created with

14:12institutional involvement number four is

14:14inducement and this is another liquidity

14:16concept that can get very technical but

14:19essentially you just want to see is

14:21there available liquidity in front of

14:23the zone why well same reason as before

14:25institutions are going to need need that

14:27opposing liquidity to enter the market

14:29with minimal slippage here you can see

14:31there is available liquidity behind this

14:33low for institutions to use to buy

14:35against but if there isn't any available

14:36liquidity then very often these zones

14:39are trapped and they will usually fail

14:40here you can see that there is

14:42absolutely no available liquidity in the

14:44leg so this is a very obvious trap as

14:46institutions will not be selling it

14:48number five is the Zone stacked with

14:50another higher time frame Zone the more

14:52you can stack zones across time frames

14:54the more orders there should be in that

14:55area increasing the probability of the

14:58move number six do you have alignment

15:00with the higher time frames because the

15:01more time frames that you have aligned

15:03the higher probability of that trade

15:05here it might look like a high

15:06probability cell to follow the bearish

15:08trend on the M5 but the M15 is bullish

15:11and it's just mitigated the M15 demand

15:13at the strong M15 low so now the M5 is

15:16likely to also switch bullish

15:18understanding multi-time frame analysis

15:20will help you to avoid a ton of losses

15:22as time is power and higher time frame

15:25will usually win number seven is The

15:27Zone well priced generally the highest

15:29probable demand zones will be buying in

15:31discount prices which is in the bottom

15:3350 of the range or selling premium

15:35prices in the top 50 of the range this

15:38also improves your risk rewards because

15:40we want to buy low and sell high right

15:41and last but not least number eight is

15:44the Zone unmiticated it's just a fancy

15:46way of saying is the Zone completely

15:48fresh or has it already been touched

15:49because if you see a Zone with touches

15:52then it's very likely that a lot of the

15:54resting orders within that zone have

15:56already been filled so I try to focus on

15:58zones that are completely fresh as these

16:00usually give the strongest move when

16:02price mitigates them now combining as

16:04many of those confluences together are

16:06going to give you the highest probable

16:07institutional demand zones to trade from

How To Enter

16:09so now you know how to identify high

16:11probability zones how do you actually

16:13trade from them well there are countless

16:15ways but here are three main methods the

16:18first one is just simply setting a limit

16:20order directly on the Zone the second is

16:23to wait for a reversal Candlestick

16:24formation at the Zone but this is best

16:26combined lined with a liquidation too or

16:28finally you can use a lower time frame

16:31break of structure for more confirmation

16:33and increase risk to reward we will

16:35cover entry models in Far More depth in

16:37a later video so make sure you subscribe

16:39so you don't miss that but before you're

How To Exit

16:41even going to enter a trade you should

16:42know exactly how and where you're going

16:44to exit now I could do a whole series on

16:46just train management alone but in my

16:48opinion if you want to get consistently

16:50profitable as soon as possible my

16:52recommendation is to always use the

16:54fixed R method so this is where you

16:56always Target the same amount such as 3r

16:58for example it's a set and forget

17:00approach that helps to keep emotions

17:02very low as you're not chopping and

17:04changing between arbitrary technical

17:05targets at the end of the day trading is

17:07purely a probabilities game and the

17:09fixed our method just helps to put the

17:11numbers in your favor now watch this

17:13next video in the series to see a full

17:15walkthrough of how we trade

17:16institutional zones in depth and if it

17:19isn't live to share make sure you hit

17:20that subscribe button so you don't miss

17:22it

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