Full transcript
0:01Despite the markets being at all-time
0:03highs , they can still rise by 30
0:04percentage points over the next 6
0:06months . And if you don't believe it ,
0:08this morning on Coffee & Markets I'll
0:10show you . Numbers in hand , as we always
0:12do here at Investire.biz . In the
0:14meantime , obviously , I thank you and
0:16greet you from Vincenzo Pena at
0:17Investire.biz . Welcome to a new episode
0:20of Coffee & Market , your balcony , of
0:21course , overlooking the financial
0:23markets . Sorry for the small stop , the
0:26little break . We had to restructure a
0:29few things here in the office for a
0:30moment . The internet was down , but now
0:33we are 100 % operational again from here
0:35on out . Every morning , always here on
0:38YouTube , Apple , Amazon , and obviously
0:41YouTube Music , Coffee & Markets Podcast
0:44and video , um , video podcast . So , I was
0:48telling you why these blessed markets ,
0:50despite being at all-time highs , can
0:52still rise by almost 30 percentage
0:54points between now and April , therefore
0:56over the next 6 months . Because
0:59obviously it's not magic , eh : it's pure
1:01statistics and also pure , let's say ,
1:03interpretation of what the psychology
1:06of the markets is in this very , very
1:08particular historical period . In fact ,
1:11if you remember correctly , I had
1:13already anticipated it : that the
1:15midterm year , the midterm elections in
1:17the United States , would effectively be
1:19one of those years , one of those " quote
1:21unquote " historical unicum that , in
1:23fact , historical recurrences , likely
1:25shows us excellent statistics ,
1:27obviously excellent statistics in the
1:29sense of positive statistics for the
1:31markets . But before getting to this ,
1:34before showing you all the data in
1:35detail , I wanted to do a quick recap ,
1:37since we haven't heard from each other
1:39in quite some time , on what has
1:40actually happened in the markets . Fresh
1:43news for those who might have missed it
1:44. Here it is . Trump announces there has
1:47been an energy ceasefire regarding what
1:49is happening , precisely , between
1:51Ukraine and Russia . We hope , of course ,
1:54that it can actually move forward . From
1:56what the very latest news was last
1:58night , it seems it has already
2:00effectively collapsed . In the meantime ,
2:03he has struck new agreements , or rather
2:05the very first agreements since the
2:08beginning of this , precisely , of this
2:11conflict with Russia for supplies , new
2:13supplies , um , let's say yes , supplies
2:16of diesel fuel precisely from the
2:18Russian side . It is estimated to be
2:22about 6-7 million barrels , which is
2:24really very little stuff . We are
2:27talking about about a week of global
2:28consumption , so it is likely just a
2:29political move . A political move , to do
2:32what ? And obviously because , guys , we
2:34are approaching the midterm elections .
2:38We are approaching what is the most
2:40important event not just of the year ,
2:42but of the next 2 years , because I
2:45remind you that in November we decide ,
2:47um , the majority in the House and
2:49Senate of the United States of America ;
2:52and for the moment , both houses have a
2:54Republican majority , but these things
2:57probably won't be confirmed
2:58post-November . And so , given that there
3:03are difficulties , especially in Donald
3:05Trump's electorate , he obviously needs
3:08to bring voters back to his side a
3:10little bit . In Texas , at the very
3:13latest rally held by Donald Trump —
3:15Texas being notoriously strongly
3:17Republican — he didn't have a good time
3:19. There were many , many , um , many
3:21protests even against Donald Trump
3:23himself . He couldn't actually give a
3:27speech from beginning to end without ,
3:29um , ever being interrupted ; and for
3:31this very reason , or rather for a
3:33series of reasons , he must seek new
3:35public consensus for the , indeed ,
3:37mid-term elections . And how does he do
3:39it ? With , obviously , prices , gas prices
3:41and diesel prices . By striking new
3:45agreements with , with Russia , he hopes
3:47to calm prices and , at the same time ,
3:50also calm his own voters . However ,
3:54looking at the data a bit , I repeat to
3:56you , it's really stuff , um , it's
3:58trifles , it's really just inertia , so
4:00it really wouldn't — it won't do
4:01absolutely anything to the price , this
4:03agreement closed with Russia . But let's
4:07say , a bit of a separate discussion
4:09from the stuff regarding , let's say ,
4:11the latest geopolitical news . A
4:14greeting and , let's say , we'll take a
4:17look at the financial markets because ,
4:19well , they are doing pretty well . All
4:23in all , despite everything that has
4:24happened , the S & P continues to be at
4:26all-time highs , the Nasdaq continues to
4:27be at all-time highs , there ,
4:28approaching 31,000 points . Obviously ,
4:31I'm talking about the cash index . The
4:33DAX is doing a little bit worse
4:35compared to the others , but that makes
4:37sense , given that Europe is a bit of a
4:39separate , negative issue , unfortunately
4:41. Obviously , we are still trading at
4:45about -5.5 percentage points from the
4:48highs at 26,600 points . Then there is
4:51gold , gold that is always there , 4180 ,
4:544200 , 4150 . The rebound , obviously , has
4:57happened . It happened because , well ,
5:00the dollar paused for a moment because
5:02it had , it had really run an awful lot ;
5:04it paused , so it made oil rise slightly
5:06, gold rise slightly , so the usual
5:08things we always see . But , apparently ,
5:12everything we see on the markets today ,
5:14let's say , in the very last week , in
5:16the very last two weeks , it all seems
5:18quiet ; I mean everything is silent ,
5:20everything seems to be going fine ,
5:22right ? Like the famous , um , boat : as
5:25long as the boat is sailing , we let it
5:27sail . And indeed , this market is moving
5:30slightly , let's say , bit by bit , but it
5:32is moving nonetheless . And especially
5:34the American indices are moving ;
5:36unfortunately , the commodity
5:38counterparts are also moving , like oil
5:40and even gas , which , by the way , is
5:42starting to rise in the American market
5:44as well . Crypto is a bit at a
5:46standstill , 83,000 , 84,000 , 84,005.5 ,
5:49but we’re not really moving beyond
5:52that . Why is there this calm ? Why this
5:55standby , why is there this stalemate ?
5:57Precisely because in a month there is
5:59one of the most important events of the
6:01year , as I was telling you , the
6:03midterms , or rather the most important
6:04of the next 2 years , because today or
6:06in about a month's time , the fate of
6:08America will be decided , but also that
6:10of the entire world , because obviously
6:12the decisions that America makes are
6:13decisions that affect the whole world .
6:18It will decide what will actually
6:19happen over the next two years , because
6:21until the end of his term Donald Trump ,
6:23whether he wins or loses , will remain
6:25there , will still remain President of
6:27the United States of America ; and you
6:29can well understand that remaining
6:31President of the United States with
6:32perhaps one of the two houses , or even
6:34both houses — which people are starting
6:36to say might be lost — would mean
6:38practically not governing , that is ,
6:40being there like a puppet : you can make
6:42all the statements you want , but you
6:43effectively don't sign any laws because
6:45the new laws , passed by the House and
6:48Senate , simply don't reach you . And
6:50where do we stand ? Well , we stand that
6:52Trump , who started with a consensus of
6:55about 55-60 % when he won two years ago ,
6:57has now reached approximately between
7:0035 and 40 % . Obviously , it is very
7:04complicated to estimate these these
7:06figures because they are , after all ,
7:07polls , but the fact is that if we were
7:09to arrive at the elections tomorrow
7:11morning , and the elections are
7:13practically tomorrow morning , it could
7:15effectively turn out negatively for the
7:16president currently in office , which ,
7:18however , is not necessarily a bad thing
7:20. In fact , if I show you the data
7:24collected here , both from the
7:26Forecaster and other collected data ,
7:29just for a 360 - degree confirmation ,
7:31guys , if we take the seasonality only
7:33of midterm years ( and by seasonality ,
7:36in this context , we obviously don't
7:38mean whether it's cold or hot , because
7:40that has absolutely nothing to do with
7:43American indices and financial markets
7:45in this sense ) , it is relevant because
7:49this midterm election period is the
7:51hottest period . It is the hottest
7:54period ever , the period that first
7:56showed us a , quote-unquote , depression
7:57or at least sideways movement , which ,
7:59by the way , has also been confirmed in
8:01the historical records , so we have
8:02everything confirmed in black and white
8:04this year as well , but then , eh ,
8:05everything changes . Then everything
8:09changes because the market has already
8:11priced in all the bad news it needed to
8:13, and so it goes back to doing what it
8:16has always done , it quietly goes back
8:18to putting , let's say , the gear on
8:20autopilot and obviously continues its
8:22run as it always has , but it is an
8:24extremely positive run . Look here , this
8:27is the data collected since 1994 . And
8:31think that midterm years from , indeed ,
8:40Q3 , eh , practically from the beginning
8:42to the middle of October until the
8:43beginning of April . Beginning , middle
8:46of April , approximately . Over the
8:48course of four quarters , over the
8:50course of 6 months , 100 % of the time ,
8:52the S & P 500 , the NASDAQ , and the Dow
8:54Jones were all positive . So , compared
8:58to someone who had actually opened a
9:00bullish position in October and closed
9:03it , um , let's say at the beginning or
9:06middle of April , they would have been
9:09100 % positive . But by how much ? Because
9:13this , in my opinion , is the even more
9:14important data point . And if we go to
9:16see by how much , and look here , by a
9:19lot . If we consider only the 1 , 2 , 3 , 4
9:23, 5 , 6 , 7 years , indeed , from 1998 to
9:26today , we are talking about an average
9:29return , obviously bullish in this case ,
9:32of 27.4 % . With the strongest years ,
9:37even like in '98 or like in 2002 , with
9:40figures of 84 % in '98 and 37 % in 2002 . In
9:452002 , what does that remind you of ?
9:47Does '98 remind you of something
9:48interesting ? No , '98 is 2 years before ,
9:51or rather 2 and a half years before the
9:53bursting of the Dot-com bubble . What
9:55does it remind you of , right ? This
9:56thing about the bubble that comes back ,
9:58it returns in '98 . For those who might
10:01not have been there — obviously I was
10:03there too , I was 6 years old in '98 ,
10:05but I've read about it , people have
10:07told me , and so on — in '98 they were
10:09talking about a bubble , the internet
10:11bubble , a bubble that was supposedly
10:12going to burst shortly and destroy the
10:14global economy . Then , of course , it
10:18arrived , but it arrived two and a half
10:20years late , and those who missed that
10:22midterm year missed out on an 84 %
10:24positive return in six months . So , do
10:27you understand what we're talking about
10:28? We're talking about a possible
10:31bullish scenario like nothing else in
10:34history , because it's clearly a
10:36statistical anomaly ; it's such a unique
10:39year , a period that happens exactly
10:42once every four years , much like the
10:45Bitcoin cycle , right ? Because the
10:48four-year cycle repeats , and this often
10:51carries over into the stock market as
10:53well , and when this period actually
10:55occurs , it has always been positive
10:57from 1998 to today . If we go back
11:00further in time , it has still been
11:02positive , not 100 % , we're looking at a
11:04percentage between roughly 70 and 80 % ,
11:06even if we look at the last 70 or 50
11:08years , so it's still a positive
11:10statistic . Um , so for those who might
11:14say we're using too few years as a
11:17reference , I assure you that if we take
11:20the last 75 years , we are still around
11:23an 80 % positivity rate . What does this
11:28tell us , and what might be the
11:29explanation behind this whole situation
11:32? Um , this is because in midterm years ,
11:36especially in the United States , it is
11:38very rare to see the incumbent
11:41president confirmed . When it happens ,
11:44it's because things are obviously
11:46already going well , so people simply
11:47vote for what was there before , confirm
11:49everything that has , um , let's say ,
11:51happened up until now , and carry on for
11:53another two years ; so , all in all , if
11:54everything was calm before , it will
11:56obviously remain so afterward . When ,
12:00however , the incumbent president does
12:02not maintain their leadership and might
12:04lose the majority in one of the two
12:06houses — and I remind you that if that
12:08happens , it would be very difficult to
12:11pass new laws . When that doesn't happen
12:15, guys , it means the market simply
12:17won't have any surprises between now
12:19and the next two years . There will no
12:23longer be the magical blond guy who
12:25suddenly stops a law on tariffs or
12:26suddenly stops a law on gas prices , on
12:28what involves imports and exports ; he
12:30won't be there anymore precisely
12:32because he won't have the power to do
12:34so . So , paradoxically ( and I am reading
12:39this in many , many newspapers and
12:41obviously in the financial sector as
12:43well ) , if Trump were to truly lose at
12:45least one of the two chambers and ...
12:48actually , I'll tell you more : if he
12:50were to lose only one of the two
12:52chambers — because then , if he loses
12:54both , we go in the opposite direction
12:57and in my opinion it would be a bit too
12:59hard for the markets to price in — but ,
13:04if we reach a 50/50 situation ( maybe
13:06Senate to Trump and House to the
13:08Democrats ) , then for the next two years
13:11we will move forward as things are ,
13:13without laws blocking data centers ,
13:15without laws blocking imports , just
13:17shots fired out of the blue by Donald
13:20Trump . He might even try , but in the
13:22end , it wouldn't really carry much
13:24weight . And so , paradoxically , the
13:27markets will be much more inclined to
13:28run wild and the market will be much
13:30more inclined to go " risk-on . " What
13:33does risk-on mean ? Totally , obviously
13:36without , uh excuse me , no , without , yes
13:38, taking risks , totally risk-on , so
13:40running wild , bye-bye , and a panic buy
13:42that could actually last for the next
13:44two years . And that is exactly what
13:47happened in '98 . That's why I tell you :
13:51when we talk about a bubble , I am the
13:53first to agree with those who speak of
13:55a possible catastrophic scenario for AI
13:57, because if it bursts here , if it
13:59bursts there , okay ; but it is still a
14:01hypothetical scenario , it is a very
14:03probable scenario , but today , as of
14:06right now , all the investments being
14:08made are real investments , they are
14:10real money circulating in the real
14:12economy . Then , if in 2 , 3 , or 4 years
14:14it arrives , that's a problem for the
14:16Vincenzo of the future , the Marco of
14:18the future , the Alessandro of the
14:20future . We aren't that concerned about
14:22it . What we care about is that in a
14:25period very similar to this ,
14:27specifically '98 - '00 , where back then
14:29they were already talking about crashes
14:32, destruction , uh crises , recessions of
14:34the entire world , yet the market went
14:36up 84 % in just 6 months . Why couldn't it
14:40happen this time too ? Why should it be
14:43different this time , and why shouldn't
14:45we experience the final phase of the
14:47bubble ? Because , assuming we are in a
14:50bubble — and maybe we are indeed in a
14:52bubble — I want to see the final phase .
14:56I want the total euphoria phase , and
14:57guys , I assure you that we haven't seen
14:59total euphoria yet . It has nothing to
15:03do with seeing Palantir up 400 % or AMD
15:06up 400 % , because those are all figures
15:08achieved over 2 or 3 years . I want to
15:12see an Nvidia that goes up 100 % in 6
15:14months . That's when I can say we are in
15:17a bubble . That's when I can say there
15:20is something excessive , that the market
15:22is clearly pricing in too much
15:24positivity , okay ? We are missing that
15:28part , and it may or may not happen , but
15:30the statistics for this specific
15:31historical period tell us they are all
15:34positive , extremely positive . Even in
15:36the negative years , if you look back at
15:38the last 75 years , they weren't that
15:40negative . We are still talking about an
15:43absolutely normal drawdown , -5 , -7 , -10
15:46% , which is what markets naturally do .
15:50So , the risk-reward makes it worth it ;
15:53the game is definitely worth the candle
15:56. Then , obviously , you know very well ,
15:59these are not financial tips ; always
16:00make your own choices , do your own
16:02studies — after all , there's artificial
16:04intelligence now , you have the
16:06Forecaster , which , by the way , you can
16:08easily try for 7 days for free . I'll
16:09just leave you with this last slide , so
16:12maybe you can take a screenshot and
16:13remember it , but you can also see it on
16:16the Forecaster , and you just need to
16:18select the period that goes from the
16:20October low , October '98 , up to the
16:22April high , April 26 th — sorry , the
16:24end of April . Until the end of April ,
16:27it should actually be a very , very
16:29positive period , especially at the
16:31moment — sorry , especially at the
16:33moment when Donald Trump loses one of
16:35the two chambers . Ahem , that said ,
16:37don't run off yet because I have a
16:39couple of important announcements to
16:41make . Let me show you this . In the
16:45Traders Club group , which is our
16:47private group on , ahem , on Telegram ,
16:50where we share our daily trading
16:52activity , every day we share five , ahem
16:54, five daily analyses on financial
16:57markets , Gold , Forex , indices . On
17:01Fridays , we share analysis on stocks ,
17:02and on Monday mornings , we do a live
17:04broadcast , ahem , a special live
17:05broadcast with Giancarlo Prisco , who
17:07gives us a recap and an update on the
17:08financial markets , to tell you what ? To
17:12tell you that the Traders Club is on
17:13promotion for the next two weeks or so ,
17:15give or take a week and a half . It's on
17:19promotion , not that you have to pay ,
17:21it's a free promotion — meaning if you
17:23join in the next two weeks , starting
17:25from today , you can try the Traders
17:26Club for 30 days for free . I'll just
17:29show you what we do here on screen . You
17:32see , there are all the analyses , for
17:34example , gas inventories , trades . We
17:38talked about oil spread trading even
17:40before Friday's video came out , and
17:43before the spread narrowed , so the
17:45position we opened just before the
17:48video is actually already doing well .
17:53And to learn more , obviously , you'll
17:55find the link below in the description
17:57and the first comment : our private
17:58Telegram group for our trading activity
18:01and , of course , all the relevant
18:02analyses , every single day — about five
18:04of them — plus the stocks on Fridays ,
18:07free for 30 days . You have to do
18:09everything through the Telegram bot ,
18:10it's very easy ; obviously , you can find
18:12everything right here in the
18:13description and in the first comment .
18:16And I'll update you — or rather , remind
18:18you — that since it's Monday , like
18:20every Monday , we'll be live at 6:00 PM
18:22to take stock of the situation in the
18:24markets . Why should you participate
18:27live in the Monday webinar at 6:00 PM ?
18:29Why should you participate live in the
18:31other webinars ? Because it's the only
18:33way you have to interact with us , the
18:35only way you have to maybe ask a more
18:37specific question about a stock , a
18:39commodity , or something you are
18:41following to get my opinion or
18:43Riccardo's opinion . And that way , with
18:46four eyes , six eyes , or even 100 eyes ,
18:48we can perform a better analysis . Okay ?
18:51So , if you want to interact live with
18:53us , the only way you have , of course ,
18:54is by participating in our webinars .
18:57It's not just the Monday webinar ; I
18:59invite you to always refer to our page
19:02www.investire.bizz / webinarcsi , okay ?
19:07And for this , too , of course , I'll
19:08leave the link in the description and
19:10in the first comment . By the way , I'll
19:11tell you in advance that we are
19:13approaching the Federal Reserve . On
19:14October 28th , obviously , Jerome Powell
19:16will speak to decide on interest rates .
19:18I don't believe he will raise rates
19:20again , so in my opinion , the markets
19:21could be very , very happy about this ,
19:23and we will obviously cover it live
19:25with Giancarlo Prisco . Due to the time
19:27change , it will be at 6:45 PM instead
19:30of 7:45 PM . So we will be trading live
19:33right during Jerome Powell's speech at
19:36the Federal Reserve . What can I tell
19:38you ? What more could you want ? What
19:39more do you want ? There's everything on
19:41investire.bizz . There are also articles
19:43, eh . Obviously to follow on the site ,
19:45etcetera , etcetera , etcetera . That's
19:47all , guys . Let me know what you think
19:49about the markets , if you are
19:50positioned long or short , if you are
19:52afraid of these midterms or not , and if
19:54the statistics have actually eased your
19:56worries a little . Because I've heard
19:58from many of you : paradoxically , this
20:00sideways movement is scarier than the
20:01downturns . The sideways movement , I
20:04know , I know we've been more or less
20:05there for 6 months ; we are still at
20:07all-time highs , but the markets haven't
20:08really done much , especially because
20:10very few companies are moving . So I
20:13understand this , it can be frustrating ,
20:15but consider that the market can really
20:17recover everything in very little time ,
20:19because they have already done it in
20:20the past and they can easily do it
20:22again in the future . Anyway guys , I'll
20:25say goodbye , and thank you for being
20:27here as always , as every morning , at
20:28Caffè Mercati . See you tomorrow
20:31morning between 10:00 and 10:30 , right
20:33here on YouTube , Amazon , Apple , and
20:36obviously Spotify . Have a great day ,
20:38happy trading to all , and obviously ,
20:40happy investing to all . What ?