Full transcript
0:00Humans are the only species in the
0:01entire animal kingdom that acts this
0:03way . Deer , rats , fish , monkeys . When
0:06food and resources increase , the number
0:08of their offspring increases too . The
0:10whole game of evolution is that more
0:12resources mean more genes passed on .
0:16But among humans , the richest countries
0:18, districts , and educated families all
0:21start having fewer children .
0:24Anthropologist Monique Borgerhoff
0:27Mulder called this the demographic
0:29transition evolutionary puzzle . Having
0:32fewer children after becoming wealthy
0:34contradicts Darwinian theory . Yet ,
0:36every wealthy person does exactly this .
0:39Any mammal — that is , any species like
0:41us — would have many more offspring if
0:43resources increased in the wild , so
0:45think about it : someone once said ,
0:47imagine how much you have to torture a
0:49mammal to make it not want to have
0:51offspring . The human child is the most
0:54expensive offspring . From every
0:56perspective , a calf is born and stands
0:58up immediately . A human child is born
1:01with a brain about one-fourth the size
1:03of an adult's . That is why it remains
1:07completely dependent for years .
1:10Anthropologist Hillard Kaplan and his
1:12colleagues estimate that even in
1:14hunter-gatherer societies , a child
1:16needed about 10 million extra calories
1:18to become self-reliant . Which a mother
1:21cannot provide on her own . So , a human
1:24child is biologically so expensive that
1:26raising one requires grandmothers ,
1:28fathers , and the entire community . The
1:31book's title is " Mothers and Others . "
1:32It argues that humans are cooperative
1:35breeders . John Caldwell has a theory
1:38called Wealth Flow Theory . About the
1:40direction in which money flows . That is
1:42the real switch . Caldwell said in his
1:45review , Population and Development ,
1:46that in old villages , money flowed from
1:48the children to the parents . Meaning
1:52the child would work on the farm , herd
1:54goats , and provide support in old age .
1:57Back then , more children meant more
1:59income . In modern society , the trend
2:00has reversed . For 25 years , a
2:02significant amount of money flows from
2:05parents to the child . The very day this
2:08direction reverses is when families
2:09start becoming smaller . So according to
2:12this theory , the child used to be an
2:14earning asset . Today , they are an
2:15expensive investment . So , it is not
2:17actually the values that have changed .
2:20The incentives have changed . The
2:21direction of cash flow has changed .
2:23People spend months before buying a ₹
2:2515,000 phone . Months , and in many cases
2:27, years , saying they will save for a
2:29year to buy an iPhone . But the decision
2:31for a child is often being asked by the
2:33family . When are you having a baby ? The
2:35right age is slipping away . As if they
2:37had checked off every task of their
2:39life's milestones as they went along .
2:41Like these people . In reality , this is
2:43purely and simply status quo bias . The
2:45way the crowd establishes a social norm
2:48. As soon as they see someone straying
2:52a little bit , they seem unable to
2:54tolerate it . How many people are
2:57planning by making spreadsheets ?
3:01Courage isn't needed to have a child
3:03because , I mean , when I titled it , it
3:05didn't mean you don't need courage to
3:07have a child . To not have a child , you
3:10need courage , brains , grit ,
3:12spreadsheets , an understanding of money
3:13, and financial literacy — all these
3:15things . Let’s see what impact this
3:18has on different people . First , let's
3:20turn to the mother . Claudia Goldin , the
3:242023 Nobel Prize winner in Economics ,
3:26showed that the massive gap in earnings
3:29between men and women doesn't come from
3:31education or ability . It mostly arises
3:34after the birth of the first child . The
3:37father's income continues at nearly the
3:39same pace . The mother's income drops or
3:41hits a plateau . Meaning , the biggest
3:44bill for a child is often quietly
3:46deducted from the mother's career . It
3:48comes in the form of not earning money .
3:51People might think that there's a lot
3:53of expense on the child , but the
3:55biggest expense is the mother losing
3:57her job . Families never count this as
4:00an expense . It is covered up by calling
4:02it a sacrifice . If you think about it
4:05mentally , having a child is such a
4:08weird process . So , for this , evolution
4:11is completely committed to ensuring
4:13that one doesn't attain enlightenment .
4:15If they did , they wouldn't have a child
4:16. Give them an orgasm . Give them
4:19satisfaction , give them oxytocin ,
4:21dopamine , vasopressin — just give it to
4:23them . They should feel good , they
4:25should go crazy when they touch the
4:26baby , they should feel a fire in their
4:28soul when they see the baby . So ,
4:30evolution is obsessed with getting them
4:32to have a child , and then society ,
4:34which is obsessed at its own level ,
4:36gangs up on you . That is why children
4:40are often born on autopilot . When you
4:44think , reflect , and start acting
4:45according to incentives , you probably
4:47have fewer children . So , is more
4:50children better , or are fewer ,
4:51better-cared-for children better ?
4:52Quantity versus quality . So , Nobel
4:55economist Gary Becker looked at the
4:56family through the lens of economics as
4:58well . His quantity versus quality
5:01tradeoff suggests that as the value of
5:03education and skills rises , families
5:06tend to have fewer children and invest
5:09more in each one . In our grandmother's
5:11time , six or seven children were normal
5:12. Today , having one or two isn't a
5:14decline in values . It is the effect of
5:16changed economics . In the village , a
5:18child used to help out in the fields .
5:20Meaning , they brought in some income as
5:22well . A city child only incurs expenses
5:24for 20 to 25 years . In Daniel Kahneman
5:28and his colleagues ' 2004 study using
5:31the reconstruction method on the
5:33happiness paradox , women ranked
5:35childcare among the least enjoyable
5:38activities of the day . Yet , most
5:41mothers and fathers say , have children .
5:43Have children . Children were the most
5:46meaningful time of their lives . Meaning
5:48, if you take a mic and ask them during
5:50the day how they are doing ? They are
5:53exhausted . But if you ask them overall ,
5:56they will say , oh wow , it is wonderful .
5:58So , this is a paradox . A contradiction
6:01where the day-to-day experience is
6:03miserable . But still , when you look
6:05back and remember it , you feel good . It
6:07is equally true for marathons as well ;
6:09if I take a mic and ask during the race
6:11, they will say they are suffering . But
6:14when it finishes , you will say it was
6:15great . So the idea is not to avoid
6:17having children . The idea is to have
6:19them , but with your eyes wide open .
6:21Calculate , plan , and treat the child as
6:24a human being , not an investment .
6:26Otherwise , it will just become like the
6:28movie " Baghban , " where children are
6:29treated as a fixed deposit . From the
6:31perspective of evolution , the toll on a
6:34female's body , and even from an
6:36economic standpoint , a child seems like
6:39a bad deal . Huge expenses , long wait ,
6:41no guaranteed return . Yet , humans have
6:43been doing this for centuries . This
6:45means evolution has driven us through
6:47genes , not spreadsheets . The desire to
6:50have a child is biology's oldest
6:52default setting , and economics just
6:55tells us what the real cost of this
6:57default setting will be . Courage isn't
7:00in doing the math , but in making an
7:02honest decision even after seeing the
7:04math . Now , let's talk about India ;
7:06India has reached the replacement level
7:08. The total fertility rate is 1.9 ,
7:11which is even lower than the
7:13replacement rate of 2.1 . Meaning , the
7:16average number of children a woman is
7:18having in her entire life has reached
7:201.9 for India . For India's population
7:24to remain stable , there must be 2.1
7:25children born , and this is why India's
7:27population will start to decline by
7:292050 . According to the Statistical
7:33Report 2023 released in September 2025 ,
7:37India's Total Fertility Rate is 1.9 ,
7:40Delhi is 1.2 , Bengal and Tamil Nadu are
7:431.3 , Maharashtra is 1.4 , while Bihar is
7:462.8 and UP is 2.6 ; and in 1950 , this
7:49figure was six . Even though Delhi is in
7:53India , do you know that Delhi's Total
7:56Fertility Rate is equal to or slightly
7:58lower than that of Japan and Italy ? We
8:01mostly try to understand this idea of
8:04having children through three things .
8:07One is the economic perspective , one is
8:09the religious perspective , and one is
8:11the literacy perspective . So , let's
8:13first understand how money determines
8:15all these things . According to National
8:20Family Health Survey 4 ( 2015-16 ) , if
8:22you compare the women from the bottom
8:2520 % poorest households with women from
8:27the richest 20 % households , there is an
8:30average difference of about one child .
8:34The same pattern is also seen in the
8:36National Family Health Survey 5 . But
8:40since these three sets of data overlap
8:42significantly , money does not work
8:44alone . Women from rich households are
8:47more likely to be educated . That is why
8:49we showed these three in a Venn diagram
8:51, as these three factors — money ,
8:53religion , and literacy — are deeply
8:55intertwined . The second circle is
8:57education . Literacy , education . But
8:59whose education ? Girls ' education . It
9:01is very important . In fact , in the true
9:03sense , the biggest predictor is only
9:05and only girls ' education . The work of
9:09Vienna demographers Wolfgang Lutz and
9:11Samir KC repeatedly shows that the most
9:14reliable estimation of population is
9:16based on women's schooling . In natural
9:20experiments , the 1976 Universal Primary
9:22Education Scheme in Nigeria increased
9:24girls ' education in certain areas , and
9:26for every extra year of schooling ,
9:28there were about 0.26 fewer children . A
9:33girl's school bag is a more effective
9:36contraceptive than a condom . Do
9:38consider such a statement . Kerala vs.
9:41China is Amartya Sen's knockout
9:43argument that China used the One Child
9:46Policy , enforced with an iron fist , to
9:48reduce the number of children . No force
9:52was used in Kerala . They simply focused
9:54on girls ' education and health . In his
9:57essay " Population : Delusion and Reality
10:00, " Sen showed that between 1979 and
10:031991 , China's Total Fertility Rate
10:06dropped from 2.8 to 2 . Meanwhile ,
10:08Kerala's dropped from 3 to 1.8 . Meaning
10:11, without any force , Kerala surged
10:12ahead . Kerala became the first Indian
10:14state to reach replacement level in
10:161988 , and that too with low per capita
10:19income , meaning freedom of
10:20contraception came from education . It
10:22achieved what the stick could not .
10:24China paid a very heavy price for this .
10:27336 million abortions , 196 million
10:31sterilizations . Financial Times
10:35reported in March 2013 , using China's
10:38Health Ministry data , that
10:39approximately 336 million abortions and
10:42196 million sterilizations have taken
10:45place since 1971 . Over 400 million IUDs
10:49were inserted . A lot of this was done
10:51through coercion , and the result was
10:53that China had to abandon its policy in
10:562015 . Then in 2021 , it said three
10:58children are allowed , and today it is
11:00begging people to have children . Just
11:03go ahead and do it , brother . So , the
11:05point to understand is that you can
11:06decrease it by force . You can restrict
11:09it , but you won't be able to increase
11:11it by force . And the country currently
11:14going through the most pathetic
11:16situation in the entire world is South
11:18Korea . 0.72 In 2023 , the government
11:23spent hundreds of billions of dollars
11:25over nearly two decades . Yet , in 2023 ,
11:28the total fertility rate only reached
11:310.72 . 0.75 in 2024 and improving
11:34slightly to about 0.80 in 2025 , the
11:37main reason for which is to increase
11:40marriages . If that increases , then
11:43birth rates will also increase . In
11:45Seoul , this figure is a mere 0.63 . In
11:49the next generation , 100 adults in
11:51Korea will have only about 36 to 40
11:53children . The real reason for Korea is
11:57the obsession with coaching and the
11:59cost to women's careers , and this
12:01pattern was seen in India too , whether
12:03it is the quota trend or something
12:05similar , look at India , you and I have
12:08written two essays the most during our
12:10childhood . One was population explosion
12:13and the other was pollution . Right . Now
12:15, pollution is just as bad , or has even
12:17increased . But at least the population
12:19explosion is heading downward , brother .
12:21So , this is a story not of money , but
12:23of priorities . An experiment was
12:25conducted in India on twins . Meaning ,
12:28when a person has twins in a poor
12:30family , they didn't plan for it . Which
12:33means an extra child arrived in that
12:34house . Which means it became very
12:36interesting to find out what the
12:38economic condition of that house
12:39becomes , because they hadn't planned
12:41for that child . But an extra burden of
12:43one child came upon that house . So ,
12:45what was its economic implication ?
12:48Because of this , the expenditure on the
12:50education of the other children in the
12:52house was reduced . Their studies
12:54actually declined . If you go in the
12:56direction of other philosophies , there
12:58are arguments for antinatalism . In
13:00India , Raphael Samuel from Mumbai asked
13:02why I was born without being asked . And
13:06in February 2019 , 27 - year-old Raphael
13:08Samuel announced that he would sue his
13:10parents for bringing him into the world
13:12without his consent . His mother's
13:15response went viral , saying that if her
13:17son could rationally explain how his
13:19consent could have been taken before
13:21birth , she would admit her fault , and
13:24obviously , no case was filed regarding
13:26this . Apart from this , Judith Rich
13:29Harris's ' The Nurture Assumption ' ,
13:31which mentions a meta-analysis of 50
13:34years of twin studies , shows how good
13:36parenting doesn't improve a child's IQ
13:38or personality as much as parents think
13:41. But the impact of bad parenting is
13:44guaranteed to be significant . So the
13:46possibility of you screwing up your
13:48children is much higher than that of
13:50you making them excellent . There is
13:53another dimension to this , such as the
13:55existence of old age homes in countries
13:57like India ; we will try to make a video
13:59on that from a financial perspective as
14:01well . The fundamental idea today was
14:04that if we can hear such data and cases
14:06, it might lead to the realization that
14:08children should not be had on autopilot
14:10; they should be planned carefully .
14:13There won't be any disaster in the
14:14world anyway . If there are fewer
14:16children , all these big celebrities
14:18like Elon Musk and others , they think
14:19at the national level , brother . Do you
14:22understand ? They think at the national
14:23level that our economy will go down at
14:25the country level . So they feel that
14:27our country's pyramid should be such
14:29that people are increasing in the next
14:30generation so that the economy appears
14:32to be growing . So , if looked at from
14:35that perspective , their crying and
14:37shouting is justified . But why are you
14:40having 10 or 15 kids just because of
14:42those self-proclaimed guardians of
14:44religion or Elon Musk ? You have to make
14:47decisions according to your own
14:49capabilities . But it should be a
14:51conscious decision . Okay , so we'll keep
14:53today's rambling limited to this . We
14:55will meet in our next video ; until then
14:57, take care , bye-bye .