Weidel and Le Pen Look Unstoppable, But The EU Has Tools

0:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about

0:01the political situation in France with

0:05with Le Pen. Elections are are coming.

0:08>> Yeah.

0:09>> 2027, right right around the corner.

0:11We're going to have big elections in

0:12France.

0:13And and Macron cannot run.

0:17And Le Pen does appear to be pulling

0:20ahead.

0:21>> Yeah.

0:21>> We also have some some interesting news

0:24from Germany.

0:26>> Mhm.

0:26>> Alice Weidel actually posted about this

0:28on X. That in East Germany, the AfD is

0:32pulling at around 43%

0:35about three times as much as the

0:37CDU/CSU.

0:39A huge huge lead in in East

0:42um

0:43Germany.

0:44>> Yeah.

0:45>> And and you also want to give give

0:48everybody your thoughts about your your

0:49travels through through Germany and

0:51through Brussels as well.

0:53But let's kick things off with France, I

0:56guess. Le Pen and then we can talk about

0:57Germany a bit.

0:58>> Yes. Well, as I said, your capacity

1:00right. I mean, let's let's start with

1:01France, which we haven't discussed very

1:04much, at least the political situation

1:06in France

1:08for for a long time. So, if you

1:10remember, we had parliamentary elections

1:13some time ago.

1:15They were deeply manipulated elections.

1:17The

1:19the Macronists and the left did a deal

1:22with each other so that we ended up with

1:25a situation where Le Pen's party

1:29convincingly outvoted everybody, but

1:33nonetheless ended up with

1:36in third place in in numbers of seats in

1:41the French parliament.

1:43And

1:45if you also remember, um

1:48I speculated years ago you just know a

1:50little bit about French politics that

1:52sooner or later

1:54there would be a centrist government

1:57uh established that um um the

2:01more centrist sections of the left,

2:05the Socialist Party in other words,

2:07would distance itself from Jean-Luc

2:09Mélenchon, who is the leader of the more

2:12hardline left, and would support a

2:16government that Macron basically wanted.

2:19And

2:20that is exactly what happened. We have a

2:21government in France, a parliamentary uh

2:25a prime minister who's able to get some

2:28kind of some of his things through the

2:29parliament, and he is

2:32a centrist, and he's supported supported

2:35by the socialists. However, the effect

2:38of all of that is that it has shattered

2:41the left probably beyond repair.

2:44Mélenchon still seems to be the most

2:46popular figure on the left amongst

2:49French voters. He has won over support

2:52amongst left-inclined voters, amongst

2:55the younger people, and amongst the

2:58immigrant community, and people of that

3:02kind.

3:03Um the center has not been able so far

3:08to put together, to find

3:11an effective candidate.

3:13Um

3:14it is looking increasingly unlikely

3:18that they could pull off the same trick

3:20that they did uh

3:22when Macron emerged a decade ago. When

3:26they found Macron,

3:28virtually unknown figure, presented him

3:32as a political outsider,

3:35got him to unite the center and the left

3:38against Le Pen. That trick has been

3:42tried too many times.

3:44I think many, many French voters have

3:49deep doubts about Marine Le Pen.

3:52I think that

3:54many people on the right instinctively

3:57don't trust her. Many people on the

4:00center

4:01don't

4:02especially like her, either.

4:05But, at the moment, she seems to be the

4:08only

4:10person in French politics

4:13that is to be taken seriously. And she

4:18is far ahead of everyone else in the

4:20elections in the polling in France for

4:23the presidency, for the elections the

4:26elections to the presidency next year.

4:29And the longer this continues, the

4:32longer Le Pen remains ahead. And I think

4:36her lead is something like 20% over the

4:39you know the top candidate,

4:41who I believe is Melenchon, by the way.

4:43The longer this continues, the more one

4:46senses that the view will begin to take

4:49hold in France that a Le Pen election, a

4:52Le Pen victory next year is inevitable.

4:58And then inevitably,

5:00politics and electoral politics will

5:02start to reshape around that. A little

5:05bit like what happened in the '50s with

5:07de Gaulle. De Gaulle

5:10>> [snorts]

5:10>> isolated from the mainstream of French

5:13politics, basically pushed into a kind

5:16of exile in his own small town, then

5:20gradually became came to be seen that

5:23his return to power was inevitable.

5:26And uh

5:28in the end, he became a kind of

5:31unstoppable force. I am not suggesting

5:34that Marine Le Pen is an individual of

5:38the same caliber or weight of

5:41personality as de Gaulle was. All I am

5:45saying is

5:46eventually what looks inevitable in

5:50politics tends to happen. And this is

5:53especially true in France. She is

5:56capable of making mistakes. She's made

5:59mistakes in the past. They have

6:02resulted in her suffering political

6:05defeats and losing elections which she

6:08might have won.

6:10But she's now an extremely experienced

6:13politician.

6:14I think she's probably got around her

6:18than she used to have.

6:20So for the moment at least,

6:23she is

6:25she looks very strong.

6:27And it's difficult to see

6:30how she can lose.

6:32That's all I'm going to say. And that's

6:34that's all I'm saying and it's today.

6:36Maybe in 3 months time it will be

6:38different.

6:39>> Yeah, I think things can change

6:40absolutely. And

6:41And Ursula has tools and she will use

6:44those tools.

6:45>> Ursula's tools.

6:46>> Where would you Where would you place Le

6:48Pen?

6:50With regards to

6:53to the to the globalists, would you say

6:56she's more Orban

6:58or more Meloni? Meloni being full

7:00globalist

7:02and Orban being, let's say,

7:04anti-globalist. Would you place her

7:05somewhere in the middle or

7:08>> I think she's slightly more towards the

7:10Orban side but without having any of the

7:13brilliance that Orban did at one time

7:16undoubtedly have. She doesn't have

7:19his force of personality

7:22and his extraordinary erudition by the

7:24way, which many people don't want to

7:26talk about but which Orban does have.

7:28That That is not what Le Pen has. So she

7:32doesn't have

7:34that level of, you know,

7:37political weight and that kind of

7:40coherence in her thinking. And of course

7:44I'm talking about Le Pen

7:47as the political force.

7:50Le Pen the politician

7:52is somebody who has waved and docked and

7:56changed her position many, many times.

8:00But the forces that are supporting her,

8:04you know, working class France, um

8:07increasingly older voters, and this is

8:10by the way an important change because

8:12older older voters in France tended to

8:15be the most

8:17uh particularly antagonistic to her, but

8:20they're now starting to swing back

8:22behind her.

8:24Anyway, the the electoral coalition that

8:27he's building is going to push her in a

8:29certain direction, which is I think

8:32closer to that of Orban than it than to

8:35Meloni's. And on foreign policy, I think

8:39definitely, um

8:42there is always been a view in France

8:45that France got too close to the

8:48Americans, too close to the British

8:51under Macron, under Sarkozy, under

8:55Hollande. Hollande, by the way, is

8:57thinking of standing again, just to say.

9:00Uh uh

9:00I don't quite, you know, seems seems a

9:03bizarre idea, but he is. Um so, I think

9:06there is always this current in France

9:08that people do think this, that it's

9:10time for France to reassert itself, to

9:13show again that it is a force to be

9:16reckoned with in Europe. And

9:19within France, there is also a lot more

9:22skepticism,

9:23open skepticism about project Ukraine,

9:27about the conflict with Russia than

9:29there has been

9:30um in, you know, some of the other

9:32countries in Europe, in Britain, in the

9:34United States.

9:37And within a Meloni's group, Meloni's

9:41political strength is that she had

9:45she has a a party

9:49in Italy which she dominates.

9:53Le Pen doesn't dominate her movement to

9:56the same extent. And they are in a

9:58position to make demands on her which

10:01Meloni's party is not in a position to

10:03make on the

10:05of Meloni. So I think and by the way I I

10:08I

10:09as to Meloni and Le Pen, they dislike

10:12each other intensely. So it's most

10:15unlikely that they're going to form any

10:17kind of you know united front or

10:19anything of that sort.

10:20>> That's a good good positive sign for Le

10:22Pen.

10:22>> Yeah. The fact that she doesn't like

10:24Meloni I would say.

10:25>> Yes.

10:26Anyway, all right.

10:27>> Well, she she she tried to reach out to

10:29Meloni. It was Meloni who basically

10:31slammed the door in her face.

10:33>> Well, yeah.

10:33>> And apparently Le Pen uh um um

10:36you know has not forgotten or forgiven

10:39that. So um

10:41Meloni never got on with Macron.

10:44But um it's likely that if we do get a

10:47President Le Pen, she and Meloni will

10:50absolutely not get on at all. I mean

10:52there there is now genuine um dislike

10:56between the two. I've I

10:58um the Greek word misos

11:00perhaps captures it best.

11:02>> [snorts]

11:03>> Yeah. Well, Meloni threw or or got under

11:05the bus as well.

11:05>> Absolutely,

11:06>> She betrayed Orbán as well. She she went

11:08full Ursula Meloni. [clears throat]

11:10So anyway.

11:11All right, let's uh let's talk about uh

11:14Alice Weidel and the AfD.

11:16>> Yes, well I'll just be

11:17>> Are they the real the real deal? They're

11:19polling 20% in Eastern Germany.

11:20>> I think they are. I mean I think this is

11:22the other thing to say. I mean if we're

11:23talking if we're comparing um uh Le Pen

11:27with anyone, I mean let's compare her

11:29with Alice Weidel. Alice Weidel is far

11:32more talented political leader and a far

11:35far more

11:37I think intellectually

11:40forceful figure than Le Pen is.

11:43And yes, I mean the IfD is sweeping the

11:47board in Eastern Germany, which has

11:50always been by the way it's you know

11:51major heartland and we

11:54it's increasingly looking as if they're

11:57going to

11:59have a very strong result in

12:02Saxony-Anhalt in Saxony

12:05in the land that have the land election

12:08that's coming

12:09shortly and they're probably going to

12:11come first. I mean they will come first.

12:13I'm sure.

12:15In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern,

12:18which is also in Eastern Germany as

12:19well. So yes, the IfD is getting

12:22stronger, but I just been to Germany and

12:24I just wanted to pass on my impressions.

12:29Firstly, um

12:33I I was both in small town Germany and

12:37city big city Germany. In the small

12:40towns

12:42um

12:42still life continues much as it did. The

12:47deepening economic crisis has not caught

12:52up there. So in those places where I

12:56went to

12:57um you know life continues

13:00to some extent as it did before, but

13:03that doesn't mean that people aren't

13:04aware of the politics and that the

13:07politics isn't changing. In the cities

13:10and I went to one particular city which

13:11was Mainz, which I know best, so city

13:14I've visited many many times. I saw

13:17obvious signs of economic distress. Um I

13:22saw rough sleepers in the main square.

13:24That is something you never used to see

13:26in Germany. I mean,

13:2810 years ago in Germany, you didn't see

13:30it. 20 years ago, it would have been

13:34unthinkable, inconceivable.

13:37You saw obvious signs of

13:40you know, businesses shut down,

13:42lots and lots of accumulating

13:46accumulated problems.

13:48Now, this is of course Western Germany.

13:52But the other thing that struck me from

13:54the conversations I had is that firstly,

13:58there doesn't seem to be the hostility

14:00to the AfD

14:02that I once remembered.

14:05I mean, in this part of Western Germany,

14:08too. So, people perhaps are becoming

14:11more receptive.

14:12The other thing is attitudes to

14:15Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor.

14:18And right across the board,

14:22it isn't that he [snorts] is disliked.

14:26It's actually worse than that. I mean,

14:29he is seen as an almost risible figure,

14:34as a complete joke.

14:36>> [laughter]

14:36>> Some person, I again I don't want to say

14:38who, said to me that he lives inside a

14:40bubble. And I'm sure this person, by the

14:43way,

14:45their background is in the CDU.

14:47Um

14:49this person I should say is the CEO of a

14:51company.

14:53No one

14:55had a remotely good word to say about

14:58him amongst the people I spoke to. I

15:00mean, he he he was seen

15:04almost as a clownish figure. Um

15:09So,

15:10put all of that together,

15:14the AfD

15:16did come across to me as far away the

15:19strongest party in Germany at this time.

15:22And I get I don't want to suggest that

15:23it's

15:24rise, its success is inevitable or

15:27anything like that.

15:29But, um

15:32certainly the SPD

15:34and the CDU do not look like they're in

15:37good shape to resist it, to oppose it.

15:42>> All right. Um, do you want to mention

15:44anything about the

15:44>> Yeah, I I I'd like to say a few a few

15:46further things. I mean, again, let me

15:48talk about Let me also talk I mean, I

15:50mean, the Greens do remain a political

15:52force in Germany. And there are parties

15:55to the left, which I think are rising,

15:58especially Die Linke. And I suspect that

16:01they're going to get stronger in Western

16:04Germany, not in Eastern Germany, where

16:07Die Linke originated. So, you know,

16:09politics in Germany is not

16:11straightforward. And I said that the AfD

16:14maybe is not as unpopular as it was with

16:17some people in Western Germany, but

16:18there's no doubt still a lot of

16:20opposition to it. The other place I

16:22visited was Brussels. And I spent two

16:25days in Brussels.

16:27And um it was

16:30um

16:31a shattering experience. Firstly,

16:35central central Brussels, which is where

16:38I was, is

16:40going down fast. I mentioned rough

16:43sleepers in Mainz. I mean,

16:46Brussels,

16:48I mean,

16:49you multiply that by a hundred or even a

16:52thousand.

16:54It it it is beginning to look like a

17:00poor

17:01increasingly collapsing what you we used

17:03to call a third world city. I mean, um

17:08the parks,

17:11the the central places, massively in

17:15ill-kept refuse anywhere. Um

17:19everywhere, um,

17:21places where I saw raw sewage. I I'm

17:24absolutely not exaggerating. The metro,

17:28um, an actually horrifying place to

17:31visit.

17:33Um,

17:33and

17:35right at the center of it all, you have

17:37the European Union and its structures.

17:41And the European Union has a gigantic

17:44banner now that they've put a on their

17:48main building, the Berlaymont building.

17:50You have top to bottom, it goes all the

17:52way from the very top of the building,

17:54uh, right to the bottom and it is

17:56enormous. If you go on to If you look

17:58for pictures of it, you will find it.

18:01Uh, it's democracy, what we protect.

18:05How it's completely Orwellian.

18:07And

18:08the other thing that's going on is that

18:10they're doing an enormous amount of

18:12construction around this building and

18:14around all the other buildings where the

18:16European Union is is, uh,

18:19located.

18:20And by the way, all of these buildings

18:22are hideous. I mean, they're modernist

18:25they're sub-modernist

18:27horrors. But they're rebuilding all of

18:30the places around it. And what they're

18:33doing, and you know, I I know a little

18:35bit about this kind of thing, is that

18:37they're changing the architecture of the

18:40streets and squares

18:43around them to prevent big protests from

18:48happening. So, you know, they they they

18:49they you know, they're con-

18:50reconfiguring the squares. So, you know,

18:53they're putting

18:55so-called ornaments and other things.

18:57They're creating new road systems. But

19:00the purpose is to prevent protests. So,

19:04you have this

19:05these fortress-like buildings which are

19:07truly hideous. This huge banner,

19:09democracy, what we protect. What they're

19:13really protecting, of course, is

19:15themselves.

19:16Even as the whole town around them

19:21is sinking to a degree that, as I said,

19:25is

19:25um

19:26astonishing. Brussels, for for people to

19:29know, I is is a place I used to go to uh

19:32uh

19:32very, very often. It used to be a lovely

19:36place.

19:37Um those who used to read, you know, who

19:40used to read Herge and Tintin and all

19:43the graphic novels, the Brussels I

19:45remember from the 1970s was still that

19:48place.

19:49It is not like that anymore today.

19:55>> It It seems very representative

19:58>> [laughter]

19:58>> of what's happening in Brussels with the

19:59EU there, creating this fortress as

20:02everything falls apart. It It just seems

20:04very representative of the of the wider

20:06situation in in the EU.

20:09Um

20:10Don't the

20:11the the leaders, the politicians of

20:13Belgium

20:14the the politicians in Brussels, De

20:17Wever, all these people, don't they

20:18care?

20:19>> No, they don't. They They see what you

20:21see.

20:22Yes.

20:22>> Doesn't it bother them

20:24that this is happening?

20:26>> Well, I I think they live in a bubble,

20:28an increasingly fortified bubble. I

20:30mean, on top of everything else, I mean,

20:31bear in mind they're they're heavily

20:33protected and they take these steps to

20:35protect themselves even more. Um

20:38Also, I think they have a deep contempt

20:42for um the people around them. I don't

20:44think they have any particular love for

20:46the people of Brussels. This I always

20:48remember, by the way. I mean, I used to

20:50go to the Commission. Actually, I used

20:53to visit the Commission in the '90s and

20:56even at that time, the Commission really

20:59didn't think very much of the people who

21:01worked there. They were very detached

21:03from the life of Belgium and of Brussels

21:07altogether. I think that is

21:09grown to absolutely horrific dimensions.

21:14I should add something else, and this is

21:15something that I was told by somebody

21:18who's worked for the commission, by the

21:20way, that all of this construction that

21:22I'm talking about, you know, the

21:24rearrangement of the square squares and

21:25all of this, which apparently never

21:27finishes. I mean, this is the other

21:28thing that's going on. That there is an

21:30enormous amount of corruption involved

21:33in it, too.

21:34So, it's not just, you know,

21:38the grift of project Ukraine. There are

21:40other micro grifts happening alongside

21:43it. So, I mean, there's all that there's

21:45all that as well. So, you know, I I I

21:47don't think they're too bothered. What I

21:49just wanted to say is this. I have been

21:51to two European capitals or two capitals

21:54in Europe over the last few months. One

21:57was Moscow, which is geographically in

22:00Europe, and the other was Brussels. And

22:03you could argue that in a way what is

22:06happening at the moment in Europe is a

22:07duel between these two capitals. Moscow,

22:12a gleaming

22:13uh

22:14super modern s-

22:19utterly sparkling clean

22:22enormously efficient metropolis.

22:26Um

22:27Brussels is a degenerating

22:30into this horrible slum.

22:33Well, you know, anybody who didn't know

22:36anything else, but just went to these

22:37two places one after the other, would

22:40have no doubt at all which of these two

22:43cities was winning. Just to say.

22:47>> The Duran at Locals.com, we're on X,

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