Full transcript
0:00Hey folks and welcome back to episode 20
0:03of Skin Economy. And to start off today,
0:05I actually have a little question for
0:07you. I would like you to guess before I
0:10reveal how much have the Roma knives,
0:14gamma knives, spectrum knives for
0:16instance, just just using those as an
0:18example. How much uh have they dropped
0:21in value on average since November last
0:25year to now? So, we're comparing from
0:27just after there was obviously an
0:29immediate dip on the knife trade-up
0:31change. Then in the weeks after that,
0:34there was a pretty strong recovery,
0:36let's be honest. So, they pretty much
0:38they didn't go necessarily all the way
0:40back to their um their all-time highs
0:42from the from the weeks prior, but they
0:45definitely had a rebound. So, things
0:47were people were kind of going, "Oh,
0:49actually, there might not be such a big
0:51impact, etc." at the time. Um, so prices
0:53recovered a little bit. Now, obviously,
0:55it's nearly a year later. The market is
0:57in a bit of a bit of a tough spot right
1:00now. I would like you to guess exactly
1:02what percentage those knives have
1:04dropped on average. Again, we're not
1:05looking at the specific Corid Doppler
1:06phases, but just on average, when I open
1:08a case, what is the average gold value?
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1:53Thanks again to Skin Swap for supporting
1:55the channel. And then I'm going to bring
1:58up this table here which I have just put
2:00together this morning. Um, essentially
2:03it is a breakdown of all of the cases
2:06that contain knives. So there's no
2:08gloves here. Essentially on the left
2:10hand side you have got all of the cases.
2:13Then the next column is the cheapest
2:14red. Then we've got the prices of the
2:17inputs on the 1st of November. So this
2:19was pretty much just a week exactly
2:21after the tradeup update. Um we've got
2:24the average gold prices uh on the same
2:27day. And this was uh data that I
2:30collected at the time um I used in a
2:32video uh about the most profitable
2:34trade-ups. As you can see profitability
2:37in November of last year, Chroma
2:39collections were sitting at 164%.
2:42Spectrum collection was sitting around
2:44135%, gamma collection sitting around
2:46130%, there were a lot of gold tradeups
2:50well into the green. In fact, you go all
2:52the way down to Prisma 2 was still still
2:55profitable at that time. Now, the
2:57current prices here, I honestly don't
2:59remember exactly when I took these
3:00prices. I think it was mid last week. I
3:02was just looking at it for myself for
3:04some reason. I didn't write down the
3:05date. So, I think these prices were
3:07about midl last week. Um, so yeah, the
3:09cheapest listing available for the skin
3:12from each collection. Then the input
3:14change column is going to be the price
3:16difference in those inputs. So yeah, for
3:19the Chroma case, for instance, what is
3:20the cheapest Chatterbox listing now
3:22versus then, it's gone up 35% from $86
3:26to $116ish. Then if we go across the
3:29average current gold and this is where
3:31it's super interesting. I honestly
3:34thought that the knives would have
3:36dropped more than the values here.
3:39Obviously specific ones could have
3:40dropped more but this is just an
3:42average. If you uh look at CSROI for
3:44instance, what is the current average
3:46gold price currently for the Chroma uh
3:48collections? $528
3:51versus $75. That's only a 25% drop.
3:54Obviously 25% is still a lot, but seeing
3:57how the market has gone, I think maybe
3:59looking at the armory values right now,
4:01how they've dropped off a cliff like far
4:03more than that, for some reason the 25%
4:06amidst all the panic doesn't actually
4:08seem that crazy. Like pretty much from
4:11from the all-time highs we were seeing
4:13uh after the uh or rather the the
4:16all-time highs we were seeing prior to
4:18the drop. Then obviously there was a big
4:19drop on the change, a bit of a recovery.
4:21So, compared to that recovery, the fact
4:23it's only dropped 25% is honestly just
4:26like really surprising. Almost identical
4:28situation there for the Spectrum ones.
4:30As you can see, 26% for them. And then
4:32for Gamma, 24%. So, pretty much they're
4:35so all equal. Just 25% average drop on
4:38all the golds um since the 1st November
4:40last year. I'm really surprised that
4:42that it's not more than that.
4:43Interestingly, as well, some of the
4:46inputs have actually gotten cheaper over
4:48this time. So, for instance, the fever
4:51case inputs, the bad trip is usually the
4:53cheapest. Obviously, the print stream is
4:54a more popular play skin. Those inputs
4:56have actually gone down by 10% um over
4:59the time period. Now, the golds have
5:00also dropped 33%. That's important. And
5:02I think this is a very peculiar case
5:04because it's obviously an active case.
5:06It's in the armory. They are very
5:08popular to open. So, the fact that these
5:10skins are getting cheaper is not really
5:13uh necessarily a lack of demand,
5:15although I'm sure that has an impact,
5:16but also just because so many cases are
5:19being opened, so many more um famous bad
5:22trips exist now compared to compared to
5:24back then because the case had only been
5:26out since uh April if I'm not mistaken.
5:29So, yeah, it's had another nearly
5:31another year there to uh to be unboxed.
5:33So, definitely I'm going to guess
5:35something like 100 million fever cases
5:37have been unboxed or something in that
5:38time. They were getting unboxed at a
5:39pretty crazy rate. Maybe maybe they've
5:41dropped off a bit, but yeah, maybe at
5:42least 50. At least 50 without a doubt.
5:44One thing that's definitely curious is
5:46that some cases, for instance, we've got
5:48the Danger Zone and Horizon case. They
5:50obviously share the same golds. The
5:52knives have only dropped off 5% in that
5:54time. Now, unless my numbers are
5:57extremely skewed for some reason, I'm
6:00super surprised by that. I'm super
6:01surprised by that. So, yeah, not not a
6:04big drop off necessarily. perhaps on
6:06some of those knife collections that
6:08just weren't as popular to begin with.
6:10Yeah, those uh that case has um this is
6:13the uh original set of gen man what what
6:17is that gen 3 knife release I guess it's
6:20like the Talon um stiletto but with the
6:22OG finishes. So yeah, this is where you
6:24get your um Talon slaughter, stiletto
6:27case harden, etc. Another thing
6:30obviously that's important to note is
6:32that even the most profitable knife
6:35trade-ups um are not profitable.
6:37[laughter] So this whole table is sorted
6:40by profitability from last year. But if
6:43I'm just having a look down the right
6:44hand side column, I believe the Prisma
6:47Prisma 2. Yeah, Prisma 2 collection
6:49there is at 95% still. I think that is
6:51the highest it seems. Yeah. So
6:54essentially, if you're going to be doing
6:55gold trade-ups, a lot of them on
6:57average, the Prisma collection actually
6:58loses the least money. You still lose
7:00out. And obviously, this also doesn't
7:02take fees into account. So you're
7:03probably going to lose another 5% give
7:04or take, including both the uh deposit
7:07and withdrawal fees there. So yeah,
7:09you're probably looking about 90% return
7:11in the best of cases. Yeah, I don't
7:14think there's much else I want to talk
7:16uh to you guys about regarding this
7:19table right now. I think I'll leave it
7:21there. Uh, obviously you guys can have a
7:23look at it. I'm going to be releasing
7:25another video kind of using this data at
7:27some point. Uh, but yeah, I thought that
7:29would be an interesting little little
7:30exercise and honestly I'm quite
7:32surprised by uh by the results off the
7:34bat. I'm giving away the brand new Glock
7:36Ghost Protocol in Phil Tested this
7:38month. For your chance to win, simply
7:40like the video, subscribe to the
7:41channel, and leave a comment. I'll pick
7:43the winner August 31st. Good luck. Just
7:46before we continue though, guys, as
7:48always, want to mention that this video
7:49is not professional financial advice.
7:51CS2 skins are virtual items and can be
7:53highly volatile. Past performance is not
7:55indicative of future results. So please
7:57do your own further research and
7:58consider your financial position before
8:00making any decisions. So then a couple
8:02of things um we can discuss today from
8:05better armory here on X. We have the
8:08estimated revenue generated from the the
8:11new collections. So this is the Spyitech
8:14arabesque fruit and vegetables and
8:17autoracing collections. 22 million
8:20essentially just under 22 million USD
8:24already. What are we now about a month
8:25in or so? 55 million stars spent. That's
8:29absolutely insane. We already looked at
8:32the supply data last week uh or two
8:35weeks ago I think now from from Spinny.
8:37So I won't uh go over that again now.
8:39But I just thought those are some pretty
8:40crazy values and it's just a real shame
8:43because we want we want operations. We
8:45want new stuff. Man, Valva Valva raking
8:48it in with this armory system. The fact
8:49that it's always there. Yeah. I don't I
8:51don't know, man. I don't know, man. But
8:53speaking of operations, we have a
8:56concept here by Barbie. I shared um last
8:59week Dema Warhacks, who has uh
9:01essentially set up a bunch of servers,
9:03got some custom game modes going, trying
9:05to kind of make a communitydriven
9:07operation with the uh with the lack of
9:09an official one. And here, I just saw
9:12this I think on X or something. Um we've
9:14got another one. It's just a
9:15community-made um concept, so there's no
9:17actual service. You can't play it. But
9:19I, you know, when I see cool things in
9:20the community, I guess I thought uh
9:21thought I might share it if you guys
9:23want to go up vote it on Steam here or
9:24whatever. U but essentially the the
9:27concept here, this will just be very
9:28very quick. Um treasure hunt concept. So
9:30it's real pirate themed, but essentially
9:32has set up all of the maps um based on
9:35different continents. They've got
9:36essentially a passport um style kind of
9:40sticker system set up. So, for all of
9:42the different all of the different maps,
9:43he's created some cool uh actually this
9:45is a really cool this a really cool holo
9:47effect. But yeah, uh stamps, but yeah,
9:50stickers/ stamps, passport stamps here.
9:52I thought that's uh that's a pretty cool
9:54pretty cool concept and just a bit of
9:57fun. So, yeah, treasure map here, which
9:59is essentially the the layout of all the
10:00of all the cities. Anyway, if you want
10:02to have a look at this, support the uh
10:04support the project. I thought that was
10:05a cool find. One thing I also wanted to
10:08talk about this week is how I'm
10:10potentially preparing for a sticker
10:13tradeup change. I I did have uh someone
10:16was talking to me about it in the
10:17Discord this week. I had purchased a
10:20skin with an IBY power holo on it in
10:22case of a sticker removal tool when
10:24people were seriously considering that.
10:26At this stage, I'm not convinced on the
10:28sticker removal tool. Um, I don't think
10:31it makes much sense for anyone actually
10:33because Valve obviously constantly
10:35releasing new stickers into the game,
10:37especially the major stickers which they
10:39obviously want to sell. Well, by
10:42allowing people to remove stickers, that
10:44essentially just brings old supply back
10:46into the game. Um, a lot of desirable
10:49stickers as well at that, which would
10:50not encourage then people to spend money
10:52on new stickers. However, allowing
10:55sticker tradeups would actually reduce
10:57overall supply while also potentially
11:00bringing down prices of higher grade
11:02stickers like the extremely rare ones.
11:04If you're trading up to more eye by
11:06power hollows, then potentially those
11:07will likely those will drop in price
11:10like we saw with the gold trade-ups,
11:11potentially bringing a lot more stickers
11:13again onto the Steam market, but also
11:15reducing supply at the same time. So, I
11:17could definitely see sticker trade-ups
11:19being added at some point. Although, I
11:20was able to sell my um skin with the I
11:23power holo applied for a nice nice
11:25profit, a couple hundred. So, I decided
11:27just to go for that. However, I have
11:29been picking up um some of these Bish
11:32Bash and Bosch hollowos. You might be
11:34wondering why um and I will explain that
11:37in just a moment, but as you can see
11:39right now, the cheapest listing is 650,
11:40but if you just look at the prior price
11:42graph over the last couple of months,
11:44you can definitely get them a bit
11:45cheaper. There's $5 here, $47, $5. So, I
11:49set up some bias here. I've also been
11:50keeping an eye out on um some of the
11:52other sites as well for them. Um I have
11:55been paying, yeah, probably around that
11:56five to6ish dollar mark, just picking
11:59them up. Not like all at once, just
12:00gradually. I don't know how many I have
12:02exactly, maybe maybe 50 total or
12:04something. However, a lot of people are
12:06obviously thinking, okay, if I buy some
12:09of the um EMS Challenger papers and I
12:13can trade them up to an IBA power
12:14hollow, that's going to be absolutely
12:16huge profit. And that could be true.
12:19However, the entry point is insane
12:22because if you wanted to buy 10 uh let's
12:24actually let's just go have a look. So,
12:26if we go to the EMS challenges capsule,
12:28we're going to go for the cheapest um
12:30paper sticker. So, right now, that's
12:33either the Vox 7 or Clim Mystic. They're
12:35starting at around $670.
12:37So, if you wanted to buy 10 of those, if
12:39if we assume that the trade-up would be
12:4110 stickers, uh you would have to spend
12:43nearly 7,000
12:45uh USD on those stickers and then it's
12:49obviously not a guaranteed tradeup to
12:52the to the I by Power Hollow. There's a
12:55lot of other other stickers obviously
12:57that you could get. So in that way I
13:00would have to actually look. Let me look
13:02at CSRI. Let's go to the stickers and go
13:04to the EMS uh challenges. Yeah. So if we
13:08have a look here. So yeah, right now
13:10probably because these are doing a lot
13:11of heavy lifting, but actually yeah,
13:13these are all still there's a couple
13:14that are cheaper. Obviously at these
13:16values doing spending $6,000 to get an
13:19average of 30 uh is is fantastic. So in
13:23that case, no problem. But obviously
13:25these prices would drop like crazy. So,
13:28it really is a question of are you able
13:29to get in fast enough depending on when
13:31you're buying? Are there enough sellers
13:33on the other end? The liquidity is it's
13:35hard to say. You know, there's so many
13:37people love these stickers, but at the
13:38same time, like there are not many
13:40people willing to spend multiple tens of
13:42thousands of dollars on a sticker,
13:44right? Especially if supplies is is
13:46going to go is going to go it's not
13:47going to go berserk because obviously
13:49limited supply of these. But, you know,
13:50it could definitely definitely have a
13:52big impact on the on the existing
13:54existing supply. So, look, I'm actually
13:56surprised by this value. I thought this
13:57was going to be lower. I guess this is
13:59currently listed at 100K. So, actually,
14:01if you But I don't know if any have
14:02actually been selling at that recently.
14:04That's the problem as well, right? 60K.
14:07The only sales It's only been one sale
14:09on CS Float for 60K. That's crazy. So,
14:12yeah, obviously these values might be
14:14slightly skewed because probably these
14:16listings are not really Yeah, there's
14:17not even a single one necessarily
14:19representative of what they would
14:20actually sell at today. But, yeah,
14:22obviously out of these, how many are
14:24there? Seven. Out of these eight team
14:26stickers, there's obviously only like
14:27one you really want. There's probably
14:29these four that you would be very happy
14:31with. Um, but obviously that's still a
14:3350/50 after spending 6,000 or $7,000.
14:38Um, so that's a lot of risk. That's a
14:41lot of risk. So instead, I also I also
14:43didn't want to drop $7,000 on on paper
14:46on paper
14:48stickers. So I've decided to try and
14:49find a new approach. And the problem is
14:50with trying to consider sticker
14:52trade-ups is if you think about some of
14:54the most expensive stickers, right, in
14:56general, a lot of them are actually,
14:59let's say, old uh old major capsules,
15:02player autographs. I'm thinking old
15:05Kenny stickers like Kenny Golds from
15:07Crackkow for instance. I'm sure I'm sure
15:09go off. The problem is if there were
15:11going to be trade-ups for that, the
15:12chance of actually hitting an autograph
15:14is minuscule because there's so many
15:17there's so many different autographs
15:19contained per capsule. So the the odds
15:21of hitting the one that's good is
15:22absolutely awful. So instead, I decided,
15:26let's go for a capsule that doesn't have
15:28many outcomes, but is still expensive
15:30and still very popular. Now look, this
15:33is still a 50/50 for where one of the
15:35outcomes is no good, right? You get the
15:38stupid bit out of here. But the ground
15:40foil currently selling $324. This is
15:43where you find the Bish Bash Bosch
15:45stickers. I've also been actually
15:46interesting. The Let's Roll sticker is a
15:48bit cheaper. I've also been picking up
15:50the Let's Obviously, if that's the
15:51cheapest one and I'm not actually
15:52applying. I don't care what they look
15:53like. I've obviously been buying this
15:54one as well. So, the fact if that has
15:55dropped off, let's confirm that. Very
15:58interesting. This is This is down quite
16:00a bit. I think uh Oh, this is the
16:04souvenir trade-up change. I reckon I
16:06didn't actually look at this price graph
16:07much before. A lot of people have the
16:09same idea as me, let's be real.
16:12[laughter]
16:13But now, the fact that it's getting back
16:14down to $3.70, all I'm saying is by the
16:16time you see this video, these listings
16:18might not be here. I might have bought
16:19them all already, but uh but we'll see
16:20about that. Anyway, if you decide uh or
16:23if you agree that uh trade up uh sticker
16:26trade-ups are a possibility at some
16:28point. This has been my approach to it.
16:30if any of you are able to find a
16:32different sticker collection that you
16:34think that you think potentially has a
16:35better return because obviously right
16:37now if you're buying these at like $4 10
16:39of them costs $40 then the average is
16:43170 again obviously this is going to
16:44drop down but that's like a multiple
16:46that's a three or 400%
16:48um return which doesn't look bad at all
16:51um and there's obviously a lot of margin
16:53like this thing could half in price and
16:55you'd still be still be in profit at
16:56that those at those values right so um
16:59yeah I think that's I think That's
17:00something interesting to to consider.
17:02How is the how is the price of the
17:04chrono crown foil going recently? So
17:07interesting. It's been on like steady
17:09steady like it's just on a decline I
17:11guess for the last year. So is
17:12everything in the market. I remember
17:14back in the day. That's crazy. This was
17:15only 2023. It was selling at like $700
17:18or $800 some reason. On November 13th
17:21they were selling at 700 again. Very
17:24interesting. I also realized today guys
17:26um episode 20 that this is now marking
17:30five months of the show. So just a quick
17:32shout out to all you guys who who tune
17:34in every week. I really appreciate it.
17:36Makes a huge difference and and
17:38hopefully you guys are enjoying. So as
17:40always, if you've got any feedback,
17:41suggestions, improvements, please let me
17:43know in the comments. I read all of
17:44them. So I'm very happy to uh very happy
17:46to hear any feedback that you have.
17:48Let's just go have a little look now
17:50then at the trending items for this
17:52week. What is going on at the moment?
17:55Got a bunch of weirdass skins in the top
17:57right now. Galil hunting blind well
18:00worn. Mac 10 stalker stat track well
18:02worn. Okay, we got a granite marbleized
18:04factory. That is an OG skin. Hamster
18:06pattern. Interesting. Perhaps a bit of
18:07recovery on these gloves. Although I
18:09could see these are the Luna weave
18:11driver gloves in minimal wear up 17% and
18:14also in field tested. Uh however that
18:16could also be a liquidity liquidity. Uh,
18:19Famus Valance up 17% this week in
18:22factory new. Glock 18 sacrifice up 15%
18:25in factory new. USPS orange and null was
18:28factory new. This is dust two
18:29collection. This thing has been going on
18:30a bit of a tear recently. Yeah, up 33%
18:32in the last 30 days. So, this is a bit
18:34of a trend we're definitely seeing. I
18:35cannot believe this is the factory new
18:37USPS road rash. It looks like absolute
18:39garbage. Look at that. [laughter]
18:41Uh, up 14% though this week nonetheless.
18:43Desert Eagle Mecca Industries up 13%. I
18:46think we'll leave it there for the
18:47moment. There's also the P2000 turf
18:49factory in here. This is um glove case
18:52milspec. So, granite marble eyes. This
18:54is an OG skin. This must be Italy from
18:57memory. Okay, the granite marble eyes is
18:59just on a very slight recovery from a
19:01from a much earlier peak. Let's have a
19:03look at these driver gloves. Luna. Wow.
19:06In Wow. In late Feb, these were selling
19:08for 2,200.
19:11They're down to 750 and now back up to
19:14900. That's insane, man. I guess the
19:16gloves got hit particularly hard because
19:18of the new terminal uh with all the new
19:20different finishes perhaps compared to
19:22compared to knives. I will have to look
19:24at the knife uh sorry I have to look at
19:26the glove uh average gold price change
19:29as well at a later date. Okay, a lot of
19:32these skins I'm not actually talking
19:34about them much because there's not much
19:35happening. They're just on a very very
19:37small recovery, but obviously even when
19:40they recover by like a dollar, if
19:41they're at $8 or $9, it looks like
19:43percentage- wise a fairly decent
19:45increase. But none of these actually
19:46have a very solid trend. Yeah, the
19:49Anolus. Oh, interesting. It went all the
19:51way up there August 10th. Yeah, actually
19:53not too much too much happening there.
19:55Oh, Mecca Industries. Okay, Mecca
19:57Industries actually over the last uh
20:00last 6 months. Wow. At the souvenir
20:02trade-up change, it was down to $11.
20:04Then it hit a peak of $25 on August the
20:078th, down to 18th August the 17th, now
20:10back up to $21. It's sometimes crazy the
20:13graphs that we look at in CS, right?
20:14Like the the the volatility is is is
20:17mental. Just having a look at the
20:18declining items for this week. We have
20:20the hand wraps duct tape factory dude
20:23down 25%. I don't really trust these
20:26listings. The liquidity is so bad on
20:28them. I don't know. Uh P90 runinhide
20:30down I think. Yeah, the I was looking at
20:32these skins. This is from the ancient
20:34collection. So, they trade up to the um
20:35Welcome to the Jungle. I was looking at
20:37these the other week because um I was
20:39trying to do that trade up for Welcome
20:41to the Jungle for the one-year special.
20:43And I was really surprised by the price
20:44gap between souvenir and um and normal
20:47grade still on some of those collections
20:49because there's just like no one is
20:51using that P90 as a play skin. Um so
20:54really it's it's only got used for
20:55trade-ups and the price gap was still
20:57substantial between uh between souvenir.
20:59So the fact that uh this is dropping off
21:02doesn't surprise me. whatsoever. I think
21:03it it kind of needed to P2000 red frag
21:06cam down 20% and actually there were a
21:08bunch of skins. This is on weapon case
21:103, the case that only contained pistols.
21:12They saw a big price spike. There were a
21:14bunch of the higher tier ones. It kind
21:16of got pumped. So everything rises with
21:17it naturally as people are doing trade
21:19ups and trying to get in on that action.
21:21Um but now it's just on a bit of a
21:22downwards trend for what the last last
21:2430 days or so from $30 down to 19. So
21:28it's a fairly steady drop off as well.
21:30Nothing like too crazy. Got the R8
21:32Revolver Knight factory new down 20%,
21:35maximum Justice factory new down 20% as
21:37well. Yeah, this is fairly steady over
21:39the last 30 days or so on that R8 um
21:43revolver night. This is from um Ancient
21:45as well, right? Yeah, this is a Prisma 2
21:48skin. The Mag 7 justice. Oh jeez, in mid
21:51July it went up to $41 from 23. Now it's
21:55just uh dropped all the way back down.
21:57That is insane.
21:59Wait, wait a minute. I thought that peak
22:02was insane. I've just changed the uh the
22:05filter to 180 days and there was a peak
22:07of $93 in uh on March 31st. [gasps]
22:11I
22:13[laughter]
22:14The pumps are crazy. Mag 7 skin at $100.
22:18Well, that Mag 7 skin at $100. Crazy.
22:21P90 Shapewood down at 19% as well. I
22:25think this is the last one we'll look
22:26at. Um, this is revolver case. Okay,
22:29this has had a pretty sharp drop off
22:31actually. It was almost fairly stable
22:34until mid August from $27 now down to
22:3621. Not really sure why that is seeing a
22:39big drop off. There's not really any
22:41interesting skins in that case either.
22:42This is a classified and the coverts are
22:44the M4 royal paladin and the R8 revolver
22:48fade. So, don't know why those skins
22:50would have any huge volatility. But
22:52yeah, CS ROI then this week and once
22:55again I am using just the 1x multiplier.
22:58So this is assuming no balance boost.
23:00Obviously you can get better than this
23:01potentially 30% better than this if uh
23:04you are using that. But yeah, deadhand
23:06terminal genesis terminal still in
23:08position one and two 108 and 95%
23:11respectively. Interesting that the dead
23:12terminal again I keep saying this every
23:14week. Supposedly it's still in the
23:15green. Um I know that doesn't take fees
23:17into account but that's super super
23:19interesting. Um because I pretty much
23:21never hear anything good about that from
23:23people unboxing it. Even my video where
23:25I break down how I managed to profit on
23:27multiple unboxings almost consistently.
23:29Uh people don't like that idea. Essports
23:322013 winter case in third position 67%.
23:35Weapon Case 3 at 67%. Weapon case 2,
23:39fifth position 65%. What is the armory
23:41looking like this week? Still missing
23:42Link Charms in number one at 49.5%.
23:47That's actually insane to me. The best
23:49collection open is currently at 49.5%.
23:51Um, you will have seen yesterday a new
23:54updated video on my thoughts on the
23:56Armory Pass, whether it's worth it.
23:57Spoiler alert, probably not right now.
23:59Uh, 2025 community sticker collection
24:0247%. Um, Dr. Boom Charms 45%. I actually
24:06cannot believe this is insane to me that
24:08the Dr. Boom Charms are [laughter] have
24:11a higher unboxing ROI than either of the
24:14new collections. Spycch or Arabesque.
24:16Spych right now 38% and Arabesque at 35.
24:20I'm going to bring back this 1.3x
24:22multiplier very quickly. So if you're
24:24optimizing, so yeah, now even if you're
24:26optimizing, Spyex is at 51%. With
24:30balance boost method, that is that is
24:32insane. For our case index this week,
24:35let's have a little look. Uh not much
24:37how it's moving again. We've got the
24:38revolver case up 2.3%, glove case up 2%,
24:41gamma case up 1.3%, and then couple
24:44things just hovering around that zero
24:45mark. Uh, down weapon case 3 down 9.3%,
24:49Fouchy case down 8%, esports 2013,
24:52winter case down 7 uh,%, clutch case and
24:55Cisco weapon case 2 also down 7%. Again
24:58here as well, Killow case is down um,
25:017%, Revolution case is down 4%. Guys,
25:03these are the active drop cases. Let's
25:05get in on that action for agents this
25:07week. Uh what do we got? We've got
25:09guerilla warfare ano the overgrown up
25:113.7% and ground rebel elite crew up
25:143.3%.
25:16Uh then down the Jean Dame National
25:19Lieutenant Medic down 9.2%. Dragon me
25:22saber foot soldier down 8.7%.
25:25Chem has specialist SWAT down 7%.
25:27There's a lot of red here. I'm not going
25:28to go through them all, but uh yeah,
25:30agent market definitely definitely on
25:32the decline still. For our community
25:35portfolio this week, we have from other
25:38Joe's Blue Balls. Very interesting name.
25:42Hopefully I don't get demonetized for
25:44that. Uh love the vids. Want to hear
25:45your thoughts on Crackow 2017 player
25:48paper autos. I have a small collection
25:50170 at the moment in case of sticker
25:52trade-ups in the future. These are the
25:53first stickers with player golds. So, my
25:55thought is if they added sticker
25:56traders, these would be a good play. Can
25:58get them under $2 each um with a buy
26:01orders um at 170 right now. His average
26:04isund sorry $1.73
26:07um per sticker. All right. Interesting.
26:09So, Crackow 2017. So, let's go back
26:12quickly to CS ROI. Go to um Krakow. He
26:16has not specified which um collection he
26:20is going for. I guess we can open both
26:23and just have a little look. So again
26:25here I'm essentially trying to have a
26:26look at the discrepancy. So he said
26:28obviously the average on the papers here
26:30is $385 in legends and $4.70 in uh the
26:36challenges. Obviously the average here
26:38doesn't matter because when we're buying
26:39in we can just get the cheapest one
26:40possible. So he said that he's been able
26:42to average $1.73.
26:44Um so that means that here on average
26:48you're paying yeah about 11
26:5217. So, you're paying $17 a trade up
26:54using 10 papers. The average right now
26:56is $33. The cheapest listings are
26:59already losses, which would obviously
27:01drop off more. But actually, right now,
27:03you'd have a very good shot. You
27:04probably I don't know exactly how many
27:06stickers there are here, but only about
27:07like seven of them or something in a
27:09loss. So, you probably have a pretty
27:10solid 70% chance of profit at these
27:13current prices. There are actually in
27:15the Legends one uh in the Legends
27:18capsule quite a few more stickers under
27:20that $17 marks. Actually, you have to
27:22get all the way here. So, I pro you
27:24probably have less than you would have
27:25less than 50% chance to profit on this
27:27one. Although then you have Nico and
27:30Simple in here. Whereas in the
27:32challenges, you have Kenny and Robs. But
27:34those two Oh, no. The Rob sticker is
27:37significantly more expensive. Robs,
27:38Kenny at $81. Yeah. So, I would say if
27:42you're going to be buying into either of
27:43the two, definitely go for the
27:45challenges, uh, would be my
27:48recommendation. It is pretty cool
27:50because I love these. I love these
27:52crackout stickers. They're absolutely
27:53sick. I think that's a really
27:54interesting recommendation. Um,
27:56obviously again it's hard because like
27:58compared to my example before, would I
28:00rather buy this than the than just like
28:03the stickers for the crown foil?
28:05Honestly, probably not. I'm tempted to
28:08say not because again the there's just
28:10there's so many more stickers that are
28:12bad and obviously the chance to actually
28:14get a really good one is is much lower.
28:17There's only a couple here that are like
28:19five out of all of them that are would
28:21be significant profit whereas you've got
28:23a 50/50 in the in the other one to make
28:25significant profits and far less
28:27variation. But let's have a look. I
28:28could I could potentially set up a B. I
28:30think this is a really interesting play.
28:31Thank you for the recommendation though.
28:33Unfortunately on CS Float now with the
28:36biers you won't be able to set up mult
28:39you have. Yeah, they they removed the
28:41advanced buy orders man. Why? So already
28:43I can see a couple here. For instance,
28:45we have seized. Um, there's Henny here
28:48as well. However, they
28:52are both. No, Henny is from the
28:55challenges capsule. However, yeah, we've
28:57got Vertus Prone in here. Na'Vi,
29:00Astralus, Faze. Okay. So, yeah, for
29:03instance, these Henny stickers at $1.70
29:06would work. Um, Phelps is in the
29:10Legends. Makes sense. SK was popping
29:13off. Actually, no. By 2017, SK probably
29:16weren't popping it off as much. Uh, big
29:19surely big is in the Yeah, big is in
29:22this challenges. So, there's one here
29:24for $189.
29:27There's obviously not that many listed.
29:29Uh, and I don't want to if if he said he
29:30can get them on average for $1.73. I I
29:33like that. I like that price point. I
29:34think they go up very quickly. We're
29:36already at $2 here. Yeah, pretty much
29:38every every line almost goes up another
29:40five cents or so. And obviously we can't
29:42use every single one. So what I might do
29:44actually is set up a B for perhaps
29:46Henny. Henny seems to be pretty
29:47consistently cheap. And yeah, I think I
29:50can pick up a couple of them because
29:52yeah, like for example here, $1.70. Uh
29:55we can we can pick these ones up now for
29:56instance. Um and then I will set up a
30:00buy order and I think we'll go for 10 of
30:02those just in case. It's a good start to
30:03the to this week's portfolio from Nunic.
30:06Then for our next suggestion, do we want
30:08to buy any of the current major
30:10stickers? Supply is probably going to be
30:12lower than from capsules. Uh said he
30:14agrees. He has been. Doesn't see why it
30:15would be bad just a bit expensive to buy
30:16in bulk. Let's have a little look then.
30:19While that is loading as well, I thought
30:21I would just come into CS market forum
30:23and have a little look at this data from
30:24Roadrunner. Um these are the Cologne
30:272026, Team Foil, and Hollow
30:29applications. Uh this is back from July.
30:32However, it will give us a good idea of
30:33which are the most popular and these are
30:36obviously not the ranked series
30:38stickers. Um, but yeah, so this is the
30:40monthly applications for each. Um,
30:43however, obvious yeah, it'll still be
30:44it'll it'll still be a good uh
30:46representation. It will give us a good
30:48idea of which teams are the most
30:49popular. Um, so Thunder Down Under is
30:52extremely popular. Uh, Team Liquid uh in
30:56the Hollows actually took number one
30:58position. Fly Quest is really high. I
31:00don't know why there's maybe a specific
31:01craft that I haven't seen with that one.
31:02Um, but yeah, Team Liquid is up on there
31:04on both. Thunder down under is there on
31:06both. What I Yeah, Falcons is high on
31:09the foils, but not on the hollows. Oh,
31:11no, it is there on that. Sorry, I'm just
31:13blind. Um, so yeah, probably Team Liquid
31:16Thunderown. I I don't know, man. The
31:18Thunder Down Under everyone's going to
31:19be It's a hard thing. It's like it's
31:21such a good sticker. Everyone's Everyone
31:23knows that, so therefore everyone's
31:24going to buy it. [laughter]
31:26So, I kind of want to buy something
31:27that's not so obvious, but then if you
31:30buy something a bit further down, it
31:31might just not have that demand. Like,
31:32you could just play, I don't know, just
31:34buy Vitality for some reason, but then
31:35applications are really far down on that
31:37list. The Arralus one is interesting. I
31:39feel like not a lot of people will be
31:41buying Arralis, but it seems to be quite
31:43popular. Sharks Esports is also up
31:45there. Uh, I don't think I'm going to be
31:47buying any golds. I don't think the
31:49golds are necessarily the most like the
31:52best stickers here. Um, so instead,
31:55yeah, the Thunder Down Under is 700
31:58tokens, so it's $7.
32:00Um, I am obviously using the Steam
32:04balance booth method. If you don't know
32:05what that is to get 30% off all your
32:07Steam sales, um, please just go look on
32:10my channel. There is a uh there's entire
32:12video on it. Just search Steam Balance
32:15Booth. You will get it. Uh, Steam
32:17Balance Boost, you will get it. Yeah,
32:18just go do that. I actually think, man,
32:20I don't know why I just love this. the
32:23IM the IM one. I don't know why. I don't
32:26know why I think it's so good. I do
32:28think as well, for instance, like the
32:30donk foil here looks insane. Like I
32:32really like the holographic effect.
32:34There were also some other interesting
32:35ones. I think I shared a couple of weeks
32:37back um some cool crafts that I found
32:39online that kind of give that fake gamma
32:42look or fake fade finish. I think you
32:43use the Paravision one for instance
32:46here. And obviously it's a bit cheaper
32:48already though. There's no real point to
32:50to buy them in the game. Can I get $7?
32:53Uh, 1.3 is $540.
32:57But actually, you can just buy them
32:58directly on CS Float, which also doesn't
33:01increase any uh supply. And potentially
33:06on a buy order, you can actually get
33:08them a little cheaper as well. So, yeah,
33:0911 hours selling for $5 here. The other
33:12thing with these stickers is I'm just
33:13thinking we've still got a month until
33:16they're removed or so, right? It's uh I
33:18can't remember the exact date, but I
33:19think it's late September. I'm thinking
33:21that I might hold off actually for this
33:23week and just see how prices trend
33:25because there's obviously a fixed price
33:26in the store. So, that's not changing.
33:28If people are buying them, they're not
33:29seeing some instant return. I don't know
33:30why people buy them and then just go to
33:32sell them immediately. It doesn't really
33:33make sense at a loss. Um, but I might
33:36just keep an eye on I'll just put this
33:37on my watch list to to remind myself.
33:40Um, I think I might not actually buy
33:42these right now. I think I might come
33:43back in a little while and I'll probably
33:45set up a ber at that point. See if I can
33:47pick them up. Yeah, around the $5 mark
33:48or even cheaper depending on how this
33:50price goes. I think uh I think we'll
33:53pass for this week, but I'm I am
33:55curious. I'll definitely buy I'll
33:56definitely buy in on something.
33:57Interesting. Pedro as well a couple of
33:59days ago mentioned that he's going to
34:01buy 1k elemental craft stickers uh with
34:03them. Yeah, amongst bold charge, boom
34:05trail, bold strike, hydrowave. Anyway,
34:07don't need to go through the whole list.
34:08You can read it. Um yeah, I think it's I
34:10think it's a pretty solid bet. I still
34:11have high hopes for that collection
34:13longterm and honestly the entry price
34:14now even better. Sure has uh asked about
34:17the P90 attack vector. I think the
34:20attack vector is from the graphic design
34:22collection if I'm not mistaken. We
34:24already have a bit of uh graphic design
34:28stuff. So I'm not sure. Yeah. So it's
34:29graphic design 0 to 0.55.
34:33It's slightly worse than the CZ. Very
34:36very marginally uh worse than the CZ
34:38float range wise. I the the the fall in
34:42price of the deagle starade is pretty
34:44crazy actually sitting at uh $218 now.
34:47Factory new. I really love that skin. I
34:49think it's absolutely sick like as a
34:50play skin. Um I use it myself. It's
34:52pretty cool. But that is crazy price
34:54drop off. Factory new org little pig as
34:57well now at $76. I think when I was
34:59doing trade-offs for these a couple
35:00series ago, I what were they selling for
35:02like 230 or something? I don't I don't
35:04mind buying it on the on the P90 Attack
35:06Vector, but yeah, I'm not sure I want to
35:09add more graphic design right now to our
35:11portfolio personally. Actually, very
35:14quickly, it just reminded me while I'm
35:15in the Discord, completely unrelated to
35:17this, but uh I have announced a new
35:19challenge to share your best themed
35:21loadout. Uh going to be giving some
35:23skins to the winners of that. Uh but
35:26essentially, just join the Discord, go
35:27to the combos channel down here on the
35:29left, uh and share a load out. Just got
35:31to include a couple of things. Don't
35:33include 40 skins, please. It would take
35:34way too long to go through all of them.
35:36Um, but yeah, could be could be a bit of
35:38fun. Doesn't matter if you own the skins
35:39or not. Just come up with a bit of a
35:40theme and uh and I look forward to
35:42checking those out. There were a number
35:44of comments just over the last few weeks
35:46as well about Overpass um and
35:49potentially buying in. And prices have
35:52dropped so hard I'm starting to get a
35:55little curious about it. Okay, for some
35:57reason it's not actually displaying
35:59those prices. How much is an orb crack
36:01factory? No. 76. Okay, still definitely
36:05out of budget for us, but this was up at
36:08300. However, a a battle scard be the
36:13monster is actually under the $50
36:15threshold now. That is crazy. The drop
36:18off of it in factory new though, it's at
36:20371 right now, was all the way up at
36:231,700 in October last year. But then
36:25even in February was around what 12
36:27to,300 in December 1,300 in April still
36:31over a thousand and then just down down
36:33down down down I guess. Yeah, there's no
36:37the only milspec skin with the full
36:40float range is this Nova worst hole. You
36:42get it for a dollar 78 right now. I'm
36:46still not I'm still not convinced we're
36:47at the bottom. But interestingly, yeah,
36:50because of the because of the float cap
36:52milspec, there is actually only 50,000
36:55supply, which is not crazy given given
36:57the numbers for some of the other
36:59things, but it is a Nova. So, that's a
37:01little disappointing cuz it's yeah, not
37:03going to be very popular as a play as
37:05well. My problem with this collection, a
37:07bunch of these skins like jewelers XM
37:10org, not great. Not great. Even this
37:14dragon snore, I guess we could have a
37:15look at the Zeus. It's kind of
37:16interesting. Okay, the dragon snore is
37:18now down to $40 in factory new. This was
37:21at $200 in March. 180 back in March.
37:26Maybe I will keep an eye on this as
37:28well. There's only 19,000 though. That's
37:30actually actually kind of crazy. I guess
37:32it's just because it's on a zoo. Not
37:35that popular. I am I am starting to get
37:38curious at those entry points if there
37:40is at some point a recovery. How many be
37:43the monsters are there in factory new?
37:45There's only 14. There's only 14K AKB
37:48the monsters factory new. I actually
37:50thought there were going to be quite a
37:51few more than that at this point. But
37:53you know what? We've got so many things
37:55to kind of keep an eye on. I'm not sure
37:56I want to pull the trigger right now.
37:58And given we are reaching late August
38:03and last year we saw the Genesis
38:05terminal drop in September, I'm really
38:08tempted to just kind of go hard on the
38:10cases again, the active duty cases and
38:12just split between Revolution, Dreams,
38:14and Nightmares. I know it's a little bit
38:15boring. Why do they always have the
38:17options here? I really like some of the
38:19other suggestions, but I still just
38:21don't think it's time to do that right
38:23now. So, 22 cents here for Revolution
38:26case and $18
38:29for Dreams and Nightmares. So, so at
38:33those prices, that means we can do 15
38:36Dreams of Nightmares and we can do 76
38:40revolution. And I know that was not as
38:43exciting as it is sometimes, but I would
38:46not be surprised if we see uh if we saw
38:48something in September or October this
38:50year in terms of a uh in terms of a
38:53rotation. So, I think that's I think
38:55that's a solid uh a solid way to play
38:57that move. Anyway, thank you guys so
39:00much for tuning in then this week. Uh as
39:03always, please join the Discord. Come
39:05make some suggestions for our portfolio
39:07next week. Uh submit some awesome
39:09combos. I look excited. Uh, I'm very
39:11excited to to take a look at those and
39:14see all that creativity. Otherwise, take
39:18care, all the best, have a lovely week,
39:20and I'll be back for episode 21, over
39:24five months of episodes uh, next Sunday.
39:27See you then. Thanks so much.